Speaker 1: It was good. Everybody, welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start the show by
being transparent, and yesterday was a two and three day
for myself. It was no bueno. Man, Lakers was a
bad call. Other than that, I mean the Bulls, but
business they have losing to the Pistons and that autumn
players you got to google like, it's just so annoying.
Got plus two and a half, everybody gets ruled out,
goes to minus two and a half, not even close,
but two and three day overall, have to do better today.
You know, it's good to be back with you. How
you doing. How's everything for you?
Speaker 2: Everything's good, Ski. It's a definite rough patch in the
NBA for me right now. Thank goodness, there's college basketball
and the NFL and in game. I think the best
place for the NBA right now is in game, Ski,
rather than pregame. But we did go winless last night.
Had the Lakers, as we talked about on the show,
had the Bulls team total over one sixteen and a half,
they did not get there against the lineup that you mentioned.
And last but not least late last night, and I
probably bet too soon. I had Hawks Kings over two
thirty three and a half, which later went down to
two thirty one and a half, and don't you know,
it landed two thirty three. So sometimes you're around this
business that as long as I've been, they just go
that way sometimes. So we're trying to fight our way
out of it where NBA is concerned.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was that was the one game I actually
had right I put I was opposite. I had a
Kings team total under and the first quarter I was
and I was pacing and pissed off. But by halftime
a third quarter, it looked a little bit better for me.
So let's see. We have three games today, you know
in the association, see if we can find some money there.
We have a Thursday night football game. We will start
with Raptors and Cavaliers. Opened up minus five and a
half looks like minus seven and a half. Total open
two thirty five and a half, looks like two thirty
eight and a half. As far as who's available right
now or who's out, Alonzo Garland strews Entyson out for
the Cavs now for the Raptors, MAMU CNB are both
questionable and then a Baggie is out. This is man,
count it out. It is a back to back for
the Cavaliers, third and four, fifth and seven, fifth game
and seven nights for the Cavaliers. I've been playing every day,
damn near. The Raptors believe it's their second game in
five days something like that. So Raptors definitely the more
rested team here. That Cavs offense has looked elite lately,
number one offensive rated team, and the Raptors, I mean
they've been good too, their top ten offense and defensive
rated team. The defense has been especially impressive. Now will
they be able to hold down this juggernaut Cavaliers offense.
You know, it's possible Cavaliers missing some guard play there
without both Garland and las O Ball may hurt the
offense a little bit. I know you still have Donovan Mitchell,
but yeah, I like what I've seen from the Raptors
on the defensive end. I like that the Raptors have
the rest advantage here. I mean, the Raptors did already
beat the Cavs once. I don't feel like the Caves
really put their best effort into that game. I want
to say, even some people sat but it's hard for me,
like the market is pushing this up towards the caves
and it's fifth and seven nights. I can't agree. I
would be preferring the Raptors side if I'm playing aside
at least, how do you feel about that? Or are
you looking at the total?
Speaker 2: Well, fifth and seven nights as a team, but not
fifth and seven nights for Donovan Mitchell didn't play last night,
so it'll be you know, he's had too a couple
of days rest here. I guess they did the right
thing with his back to back. They sat him and
MOBILEI bring them both back here tonight. Send take a
couple of guys who started, or excuse me, take a
couple other guys out. I do agree Ski that the
point guard situation just gets hurt here when you don't
have Garland or Alonso. Again, Donovan Mitchell is a ball
dominant guard anyway, so I guess you can consider him
to be your point guard here. But I too like
the Raptors a little bit in this game. And I
tell you what, I'm getting to the point where whatever
looks logical becomes But I'll say this, the people who
bet NBA boy, they love their stars in or out
of the lineup, because it's the only reason really why
this game went from two thirty five and a half
all the way to two thirty eight, and it was
two thirty nine and a half early, and it's come
back since. I think some cooler heads prevailed with the
big jump on the announcement or on the knowing that
Mitchell was going to play here. Seven and a half
seems like a lot to me. Toronto will come to play,
There's no doubt about it. I don't know that the Cavs,
you know, again, winning by margin, do you care all
that much? I'm not sure. I'm actually not sure that
Donovan Mitchell will have his best game here. Like I say,
he's on the sidelines at Louisville, Kentucky the other night.
He had bigger things to tend to than be with
the team or play for them last night. So I'm
leaning Toronto here. I think the line move is a
little bit excessive, and I don't like the fact that
you have two point guards sitting on the bench here tonight,
probably two of your better playmakers. So I think when
I had it all up, I think I lean Toronto.
Speaker 1: All right. So we're in agreement that we will prefer
the road dog in this one. As far as the
total is concerned, the lack of point guard play makes
me think that it hurts the Calves offense. If you
told me that you know, you get either Lonso or
Garland and you know to help when Donovan Mitchell especially
is off the floor, I would feel better about this
over you know, so being here without both of those guys.
This Raptors defense has just been been playing too good
lately to expect the Calves to just run it up,
especially on a fifth and seven nights. So I think
that the Raptors can hold the Caves down. I mean,
your team total is one twenty three and a half Calves,
I mean, yeah, have been getting there coming off of
but one thirty one thirty eight, twenty eight thirty two
they've been scoring. I don't know. This one's wrecking my brain.
Maybe we look at the Raptor side and expect them
to be able to score. I mean, Cavs defense last
five games ranked sixteenth and fifth game is seven nights.
I mean, I don't think you get the best effort defensively.
Raptors have been the top ten offensive ready team in
that span, Raptors team total is one fifteen and a half.
I'm just gonna glance here. The Cavaliers gave that up
and four of their last five games as well, So
as much as they're scoring, they're giving it up. The
only team that did not hit the world fifteen and
a half was the Wizards, who landed on one fourteen.
So how do you feel about any of that stuff
that I'm saying there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you could isolate Raptors team total here
for sure. Cleveland's down in a lot of defensive category
skiing like you mentioned, you know, I think it kind
of is like the Nuggets in some regards when we say,
or at least I say a lot that the Nuggets
know they can probably outscore you, so defense isn't always
required for forty eight minutes. Nuggets just go out and
score one hundred and twenty five, hundred and thirty, one
hundred and thirty five and they beat you and wind
up covering some numbers. That's kind of like what the
Calves do here this season as well. So not there.
I guess they're not as worried about what the opponents
are getting because they know they're gonna get theirs and
one more time, I would say that, you know, just
looking through the entire rotation for the Calves tonight, Donovan
Mitchell's gonna have to do an awful lot from a
point guard in scoring perspective for this team. And Sam
Merrill can't play point. They really don't have another legit
point on the floor here tonight. Craig Port probably get
some minutes. So I don't know, I think you could
isolate Raptors team total and you get your guy RJ.
Barrett to come through with twenty five for you.
Speaker 1: All right, So uh I guess yeah right, we're thinking
they can score. I still think that the Cavs, you know,
Calves offense is going to suffer too. I did make
some like we're talking about, or at least earlier, we're
talking about things that not making sense in the NBA.
The one thing that's continued to make some sense is
these team totals. For me, Raptors. I cash with them
the other day who they played? They played the Nets.
Remember I had the Nets team total under. I know
it's the Nets, but I just a team total under
looks good. Raptors feels good. I think I just need
a little more time, all right, Hawks and Jazz, let's
get to this one. I have the opener as minus
one for Atlanta. Now see as high as two and
a half. Mostly two's though out there total not a
whole lot of movement injury report. Porzingis is questionable, deris
it is doubtful, Trey Young is out, and it's still early.
Atlanta is on the back to back here. We could
see some other guys rolled out for Utah. Kyle Anderson
is out, Hendrix is out, Kniang is out. Another one here,
I believe for the Hawks, yes, like I said, second
of back to back, third and four, fifth and seven,
they've been playing every day. The Jazz, they did get
a little bit of rest before this game. It is
still a third and four nights, but they are the
rested team. At least they didn't have to play yesterday.
The Jazz. Well, first of all, the Hawks, they're another
team that's been playing some of that good defense I
mentioned that. I mean, that's the one I cash yesterday, right,
the Kings team total under Will that defense be the
same on a back to back here on the fifth
and seven nights, That's a that's a tough question, especially
here in elevation, right, the Jazz they've been good at
home from the mistaken and they they've scored, like their
home games have been extremely high scoring. So the combination
of those things makes me hesitant on trusting the Hawks defense.
I think if I'm playing this one, I mean, the
spot says Jazz, Jazz have been good at home, that's
been their role. I guess it's either Jazz or Over
just banking on that that Hawks defense suffering here, you know,
in this situation, the Spot, So how do you feel
about that, you know, Jazz or Over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to add or argue anything that you
just said. Ski. Atlanta's on this four game road trip
already two and oh, chance to go three and oh,
and then I think they close with Phoenix, So you know,
obviously they're looking at going undefeated here. But I think
the most key key angle you had there was, you know,
back to backs going into Utah. What's the fourth quarter
going to look like for the Hawks? It may be
okay for a half, but Utah sitting at home off
of a one point fifty two they got down twenty
to seventy. Other night, I think it was to Indiana.
I had Indiana. I thought, well, this one may go
my way, and the next thing, you know, I mean,
Utah goes for one hundred and forty five points and
the other side scores I don't know, one hundred and
two hundred and three. They win by like thirty five
points the rest of the way. Definitely capable. Moving Ace
Bailey into the starting lineup probably a smart move here
this evening. They had gone dry where scoring was concerned
on that road trip. But like you say, they got home,
took care of business the other night. I don't know.
I'll say again, I like the Hawks defensive backcourt without
Trey Young because Alexander Walker and we know Dyce and
Daniels is really good at defending. But I do wonder
for Atlanta what the fourth quarter is going to look like.
I think if you want to play the Hawks, you
probably go early and get away late. And if you
like the Jazz, maybe full game is for you. As
far as side is concerned. Can't make a real call
on the total here because if Atlanta does fade a
little bit fourth quartered, and I don't know that, it
makes two thirty three and the Hawks scored or excuse me,
the Hawks shot like fifty five percent last night in
that game against Sacramento, who really doesn't care about defense.
Utah is not good at defense, but I think they
care a little more than Sacramento. And you know, watching
Doug Christy after that game last night, Sacramento is just
an absolute mess. Utah at least has guys out there
trying to play each and every night. So for me,
probably be Atlanta early if you're gonna play, and I
would lay off the total.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking at the home road splits for
both of these teams. The Jazz are five and oh
ahs at home so far this season. The Hawks are
one and six, so they've only gone over their team
total once on the road so far this season. I
think that's pretty interesing, right, Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's the
only time versus a Kings team that was on the
back to back and tired and already doesn't play good defense.
Now the Jazz, I mean, they've gone over versus for
their five home games as well. Man at home, the
Jazz are averaging one hundred and thirty three point two
points per game. That is crazy, also allowing one to
twenty five point two. You put them together, that means
their home games two was that two point fifty eight. Jesus,
it's jazz. It Jazz are nothing for me in this game.
I would continue to ride with the home team faith
to spot for Atlanta. Yeah, Jazz are nothing for me.
Any last thoughts before we keep going here.
Speaker 2: Hawk's first half has an away favorite. They're four and
oh straight up? And what do they ask to lay
here in the first half, Because that's a straight up
record four and as an away favorite, they are favorite
for the keep. It's only asked to win the first
half by one. In someplace you can still get a
half a point, so yeah, you might be able. I
know they I won't bet it, but I know that
they allow those first half second half bets. Bet one
side for the first half, other side for the second half.
Parlam together. It looks to me like a Hawk's first
half game of Utah full game.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll keep going to the last one on
the NBA slates. That looks like Pacers and Sons opened
up minus four for Phoenix. Looks like four and a
half to open two thirty four and a half. Half
came down a little bit as long as two thirty
two and a half. Take a look at some of
these injuries for the Pacers. Obie Topping, Ben Mather and
Cam Jones, Jackson and Furfy all out for Phoenix, No
Jalen Green, Mark Williams questionable for them. It says very likely.
How does say questionable and very likely? Which one is it?
Mark Williams is on the injury part, I'll say that
the Pacers have not been good. They have not been
good at all, both teams fourth game and six nights.
The Pacers do have the rest advantage, though Suns did
play last night. Man, the Pacers looked pretty pathetic in
that loss to the Jazz, even though they got what
TJ back, I know he didn't play the second half.
And the Suns, I mean they've been playing good. The
Sun four win ATS four and went straight up and
ats their last five. Meanwhile, I don't know how many
the Pacers I've lost in the row, but it's at
least at least their last five games. Now, getting nim hard,
getting TJ back, I want to think that they can
start to play a little bit better. I know you
still need guys like Topping, the Mather, et cetera. But
it makes me think that Pacers. I mean, we saw
them playing with some more pace in that last game.
Maybe some of it was, you know, some of that
jazz at home as well, But I do think the
pace starts to increase for this team. I think Overs
will start to hit. Will it be tonight? That is
the question. I can only look towards this one over
for that reason that I'm saying, and as far as
the side on this one just has a funny feeling
to me. Honestly, the Sons have been playing so well,
the Pacers have been asked and the lion is sitting
here at four four and a half. Sons the top
ten offensive rated, defensive rated, rebounding team last five games.
It looks extremely easy to go take the Suns. And
I do not want what's easy, because we already talked
about it. You know, it's it's not making sense. So
I'll lean towards the Pacers in this game. Pacers are over,
are you you? And this one?
Speaker 2: And I think I would combine it ski and try
the Pacers team total over for a couple. I mean,
this scheduling spot for Phoenix is rough right back to
back three and four. I think every game we've talked
about has had a bad scheduling spot for one team
or another. I had Mark Williams listed as being rested tonight.
I don't know if that's still the case.
Speaker 1: If it is, that's what you have, let's check. Let
me just check another source, see if I had anything
extra come up right now, I don't say anything, you know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're gonna have to wait on that. That's
good rim protection for Phoenix that may or may not
be eliminated from the lineup here tonight. Grayson Allen's been
going crazy for Phoenix last couple of games. I know
he had forty two a couple of nights ago. I
think he came back with another twenty something. He's like
in the mid sixties his last couple of games. So
that's helped Phoenix. But in reference to I think I
forget which team it was now that we covered where
you said maybe the defense in this spot, I guess
it was Cleveland. Maybe the defense in this spot suffers
a little bit. I think it might suffer a little
bit for Phoenix. And I think I want so badly
to jump in with Indiana that I jumped in right
away with McConnell.
Speaker 1: The somebody's saying he's out. I'm sorry to interrupt somebody here.
I don't help, but but but it's just U. I
mean NBA and Phoenix Sun's news and analytics. This person
is listed a US our guide. J Money follows him too.
He says that he's out tonight. Do the right knee
injury management, so take that forward his worth. I haven't
seen it on the official whatever, but.
Speaker 2: Maybe a little load management injury management for Mark. But
it wouldn't surprise us right if he is. But I
think what I'm trying to get to here is that
with those two and we know how TJ plays, it's
his second game back. Now, maybe I jumped the gun
too quick, but when McConnell's on the floor, the energy
level goes up. We know Nemhart's more than capable. It's
his fourth game back. Now, I think over one fourteen
for the Pacers and not an unreasonable play here. You
know the way their record sits Ski, they have to
try and get themselves a couple of wins, and they're
still obviously shorthanded. But I think with those two guys
back at least points and you had mentioned already that
you saw a little pace come back against Utah the
other night. It wasn't good on the defensive end. But
if we bet their team total over, we don't care
about the defense.
Speaker 1: End, right Yeah, if Mark Williams is out, I can
see the Pacers, you know, with that new pay, with
that pace back, you know, having some point guard play,
getting up and over a lot of ways to think
about this movie. You know. I think I will continue
to catch these games and probably get to the window
a little bit later. But we broke them down for you.
And let's talk a little bit. Talk a little bit
of Thursday night football open ten and a half for
New England. Now see thirteen pretty much as a content.
This number total open forty four and a half looks
like forty three right now. One couple shops holding forty
three and a half, but we'll call forty forty three
to consensus. I mean, this one looks pretty easy to me.
You know, the Jets have just been asked. I mean,
maybe I'm simplifying too much, but it's extremely hard. If
you tell me Justin Field is still a quarterback and
he don't even want to throw the ball, it's hard
for me to think that they're gonna do anything in
this game. It's hard for me to think that it's
gonna go over because I would expect that the Jets
have to contribute to, you know, to get to forty three.
Patriots pass defense is not good, well he throw Patriots
red zone defense even it is not great. But can
we trust fields down there? If you told me who's
the backup? The backup is right, he told me Tyrod
was out there instead of Fields, I'll be been over
in this game. Immediately. I trust the Patriots to score
on his Jets defense. How much can the Jets score
and keep up? Is my problem? So maybe if I
think like that, I just isolate and go Patriots team total.
It does look like Patriots team total best nuver you
can get right now. Best number you can get right
now is twenty seven and a half. If you like
the over, talk to me. You know, how are you
doing Jets and Patriots?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll say this, the Jets do want to run.
Breise Hall is like their only offensive weapon, and there's
not many in the league. I don't know where they've ranked,
but it's top five. There's not many better at stopping
the run than New England. So if they immediately shut
down the run, Like you say, you're stuck with a
quarterback who through for fifty four yards last week. Where
are you going against this team. I know it's a
short work week, but it's a New England home game.
I've already played this one. Ski. I played New England.
First half. They're minus seven. I just felt like thirteen threes.
Anything above said, it just seems again. I don't want
to make anything in sports betting sound easy, but to me,
when you start putting pieces together here, Drake May has
been really good. The Jets don't have Sauce Gardner anymore,
their defensive secondary lax at this point in time. New
England let loose travy On Henderson last week. He had
two touchdown runs of over sixty yards or something. They
just have so many weapons at this point in time,
and defensively they're able to shut down, and I mean
really shut down what the Jets want to do. So
home game, prime time. New England's kind of been out
of the spotlight of these national TV games for a while.
I trust vable here to do the right things. So
for me, it was Patriots first half minus seven. But
there are other ways, and you found a twenty seven
and a half. I would say at that price you
probably can get in with New England. I saw a
lot of twenty eights that were kind of juiced, and
I thought, well, what if they just let up second
half and maybe four days short work week, Maybe don't
score as much, but I could see playing over twenty
seven and a half. Like I say, first half minus
seven I thought was the best way to go here.
Speaker 1: So they know, thinking get in and get out on
this one. Yeah, twenty twenty seven and a half does
seem pretty appealing. Just trying to glance on one more
thing here, See how many the Patriots are scoring this
season at least twenty six point five points per game.
Jets are allowing about twenty six point seven. You know,
the question is do it Do I trust the Patriots
to score more? Do I trust the Jets to struggle
to score? Men? You mentioned the Patriots rush defense, right,
so if the Jets aren't passing the ball, I'm just running,
we don't expect them to have too much success.
Speaker 2: Well, and I'll add to your point real quick. I'll
add to your point real quick. If the Jets get behind,
they have to pass, right. What if they get behind
like fourteen oh ten oh fourteen oh. Running the ball's
not gonna gets you anywhere, So they just dig themselves
a bigger hole by having as well. And I think
to add to its scheme now that I'm remembering from
my notes this morning, I think Garrett Wilson is hurt
again for the Jets. Takes away their top receiving option
on that team, makes the passing game even worse without
Garrett Wilson. So, yeah, I didn't mean to butt in
like that, but you struck a chord with me when
you said that's why I wanted to get it in there.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's I mean, if you put them together, Patriots
team total over and Justine total indred, we just take
the Patriots tonight, and I can't argue it too much.
Just clansing here, it's hard to argue to Patriots. I'm
also looking at pretty much Thursday Night home Thursday night
double digit home favorites. They are seventeen six and one
ATS average line is minus thirteen. They're sixteen and eight
to the under. But the average for that home team
is twenty nine points per game. The average for the
road team is eleven. So it's saying pretty much how
we're thinking here is how the game is gonna go.
It's just which way do I want to go? Maybe
I'm overthinking it. Maybe it's just Patriots on the spread here.
I don't like the thought of get in the ass
end of the line though. You know, you did have
a ten and a half. Now it's thirteen. I mean,
I don't know how key eleven and twelve are, but
I do think thirteen is tough anything before we move
it on over Rob, you know. And by the way, Brian,
the weather is just thirty degrees, just little cold, no wind,
no snow, no nothing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's nothing that these two teams coming from
the Northeast don't play in any way, so they'll be
well equipped from that angle. As far as the keys
on eleven and twelve, I mean, eleven certainly has way
more options. Twenty four, thirteen, twenty one, ten, twenty seven
to sixteen, bunch of stuff. Twelve is just pretty much
a dead number until teams start going for two point conversions.
Then all of a sudden you can throw your key
numbers in the garbage.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't have anything to add Ski. I
think we're both on the same wavelength here. It depends.
In my case, I was just a little bit afraid
that it might be twenty seven to seven late and
the Jets stick a meaningless touchdown, and I don't cover,
I only push. I'd almost rather get to the Patriots
early rather than count on them to go all out
for four quarters. But I can't argue anybody off of
that either, because this could be a total destruction. It
could be like thirty one nothing.
Speaker 1: Well, you know what you're actually probably are on or
something with that first half. Patriots are eight and two
HS in the first half. Jets are two six and
one first half open minus six. Now you gotta get
I mean, you can get a seven. I mean, it's
the same, I guess, but if it's six, you push.
I mean, maybe it is a reason. I mean the Jets,
I'm looking at them. They're two six and one ATS
in the first half. They're five and four ATS on
the full game. So either other teams, I mean, they
probably get ahead and then just don't care anymore. I
think that that's how I make sense of that. And
the Jets as a road dog in the first half
zero and three in division this division game, right it is, Yeah,
in division. They're oh and two in the first half,
Patriots two and oh yeah. I mean that first half
is making some sense, Rober, you know, get in and
get out with those Patriots is looking appealing. All right,
all right, let's move it on over. I don't want
to get too deep into everything for a week eleven
because I don't even feel that strong about all this stuff,
you know. But you know, there's a couple of things
that we can talk about every single week, you know, sure,
first NFL Week eleven, we'll do how we are, how
we usually do. I gotta talk about your team, gotta
talk about my team, So I guess I guess we
could talk about my team first. It opened up Chargers
minus one and looks like three total forty three and
a half opener looks like forty four. The Chargers offensive
line is not great. It's no secret, right, but it
seems like almost they figured out a way to you know,
be a like deal with it, like they're still able
to have some success. The run game still looks good. No,
they're missing all these offensive line guys missing. The Omarrio
and Hampton run game still looks good, So I think
they figure some stuff out. They may be plugging and
plug some stuff in or everyone to call it the
run game looks good for them. I would ask how
good Jacksonville's defensive line is, like I usually do, and
just off my thought. I don't think that their team.
I'm scared of putting too much pressure, so it makes
me think that this is a winnable game for the Chargers.
I don't trust Jacksonville's defense. I think that Chargers defense
is a hell of a lot better. I don't know.
It seems it does seem really easy to take the Chargers.
I don't like that, but I don't know. I guess
it's one way ticket for me here. Am I cutting up,
you know with my team? Or can you talk me
off of the Chargers?
Speaker 2: Well, I'd like to know, and I'll probably wait on
this because I would like to know that Lad McConkie
and Quentin Johnston are both going to be okay. They
both have question marks next to their name. Practice today,
I don't know, but I know that I saw this
morning that McConkie didn't practice yesterday and Johnston was limited. Hey,
it could be precautionary, but Konki had a little bit
of an ankle problem during the game last week when
the Chargers, like you say, found a way against the
Steelers to get it done. Even with remember last week
when we talked about that game and the missing tackles
and brought up TJ. Watt, But it really wasn't that
big of a I mean, Vidal ran like crazy against
that team last week. So even at the Jim Harbaugh
to find a way to get the running game going,
and you can probably do the same here. I don't
have a lot of good things to say about Jacksonville
right now, to tell you the truth, but it's at
that time of year where you got to fight for
playoffs spots and five and four. Jacksonville's gotta find you know,
you can't just be blowing home games. It's a little
bit of a consideration too. Like I say, I would
like Chargers more if I knew Lad McConkie and Quentin
Johnston were both going to be in the game, and
we might not find that out until Friday Saturday, be all.
Speaker 1: Right, and I mean just quickly to your team open
plus two and a half now plus four at home
for the Denver Broncos. I mean, I'll be the first
one to tell you that I'm not a Boonex guy.
I don't. I think he's overrated, and I think it's
shown by how you perform versus the bad teams versus
the good teams. The City is a good team. Kansas
City's offense also has been looking unstoppable for the most part.
Broncos defense without certain gonna take a step back. I
see my whole slicing them up. It's Kansas City or nothing.
It's actually I mean, I'm gonna be on Kansas City.
I like Kansas City. He an't talking me off. Is
there any reason to take Denver in this one, Robin?
Speaker 2: I just want permission to use your phrase built to ask,
because I'm pretty sure that's what's gonna happen here. The
Broncos are very fraudulently living at eight and two on
top of that division. This is divisional. This means everything
case is five and four, and if the playoffs started today,
they'd be the seventh seed. They got some ground to
make up, and it starts by going into this place
and showing Denver you know who the best team in
that division is, and it's not the Broncos. Again, I've
said it enough. I get very angry just because as
a Broncos fan, he's had three years. Sean Payton has
to upgrade that offense and it's the third year and
they're no better than they were the day he took
over the job. Same guys, same nonsense, same lousey offense
against good defensive teams. Spagnola, for what it's worth, will
probably show Bo Nicks, and they played him twice last year,
so it might not be anything that he hasn't seen,
but he'll cause him difficulties. And case with all that weaponry,
is just different. I can't see Denver keeping pace at all.
Ski I think can make a good point about Patrick's
or Tan on the corner without him. Kansas City's got
so much speed out there, three guys that can get deep.
So for me, it's gonna be I mean, it's already
been bet by me personally. It'll be on my client
card as well. I think Casey can win this game
by a touchdown, and we'll ask basically, you can still
get three and a half's out there, guys, there's plenty
of them, so you're only asked to win this thing
by four points.
Speaker 1: All right, We're in agreement on this one. Mark reminds
us that Andy Reid is off of buy. We all
know how he performs in that situation. There's another game
that I bet already and lines are moving, so I'll
mention it. It's Spaltimore in Cleveland, and I mean in
open minus eight looks like seven and a half total
open forty one and a half, and it looks like
it's down as low as thirty eight and a half.
I'll tell you I got in on under in this game. Rob.
You know I did get the forty one and a half.
Not only did I take that, I also took the
first half under at twenty and a half. I believe
it was. So my thought process here is one. I
believe it's a weather game. Like I believe it's gonna
be some high wins or stuff like that. Let me
just double check. Can I get that? I think right
now says should be sustained wins around twenty miles per hour,
gust up to thirty miles per hour, and it might
it might only be for like the first half. It
said it could taper off towards the end of the game.
So that's what we're expecting weather wise. Now, outside of weather,
this is a Browns team that going back to last season,
defense is terrible on the road, pretty good at home.
Right now they're at home here in the division game,
I would expect that defense to play pretty good. As
far as the Ravens. To start the year, their defense
was ass completely ass Then close to when they got
to their bye week. Maybe it was after the bye
week somewhere around there, I forget when it was. They
started to play better. They started to get healthier, they
got guys back, you know, and that's going to help
help out. I love a lot, So I think the
first half of the season the Ravens defense was terrible.
I think right now they have a I mean I
haven't looked at numbers. I don't have the numbers. I've
looked at numbers, but I don't have it in front
of me. They're either top five or top ten defense
if you're looking at recent performance. That's what I care about.
This is a healthy Baltimore defense right now. So you're
giving me two defenses that I can trust in a
win game. That is why I ran to the window
and bet the opener on both the first half in
full game. What do you think about that?
Speaker 2: You know, well, I know you probably don't want Dylan
Gabriel as you're throwing quarterback into win. That's for sure
of all the quarterbacks. And I think we spoke on
this last week where a win game was concerned. I generally,
if it's twenty miles an hour, it doesn't bother me
too much because most of these NFL arms can cut
right through twenty to twenty five mile hour wins. But
Dylan Gabriel doesn't have one of those NFL arms, you
know what I mean. He's more about placement, act you recie, etc.
Et cetera, and the win can affect him. The good
thing about Baltimore's ski is that, you know what, despite
all their troubles, they never lost an AFC North game.
They're still undefeated. They're only one to zero. They haven't
played a bunch of them. But now that they've gotten
a little bit healthier and they start to play their
divisional opponents, sitting here at four and five, I just
talked about our desperate case. Is Baltimore's more desperate. They
started their playoff season a couple of weeks ago. They've
been good and in windy conditions. The one thing we
know about Baltimore is they have Derek Henry and the
other side doesn't, so you can run the football, and
Cleveland's really good at stopping the runs. So it may
not be every down Henry rips them, but at least
they have the edge there. I think Baltimore's probably a
good play in that game. I think they'll score en up.
Their defense could create something against Gabriel that helps them out.
I'm not going to argue against the under because it
makes perfect sense, but I think, you know, at this
point in time, you can probably play the Ravens as
they try to just keep stacking wins and getting back
into this race. Cleveland Miles Garrett is popping off again.
He wants to get out of there. He just signed
a huge contract. The team stinks. I don't I mean,
I don't know. Cleveland just really has nothing going for
them at this point in time to actually make a
case for them from a side perspective. But you were
talking about total, and I can understand why it was
bet down and I can understand the reason for the play.
Trying to think in my head mathematically, you know, you
come out of there with something like twenty three to ten,
which sounds reasonable. It's a Baltimore win and cover and
it's an under as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that one I liked quite a bit. I can't lie.
I'm looking here really quick, you know that AFC North.
I'm just trying to see. The Steelers are on top right, yeah? Stillers, Oh,
I mean there's some teams catching up over there. So
Steelers and Bengals is a big game. Bengals are three
and six, playoff whole kind of dwindling away. Is it
already gone? Uh? Maybe? I feel like Joe Flacco also
was on the injury report, Like I have him on
my fantasy team, so I know he was something was
up with him. Where his question mark if he's gonna play,
He probably will play because it's important of the game too.
But I can't help but think since he's just about done,
since he's just about done, Pittsburgh they can still I mean,
they hold their own destiny right, They're on top of
the division. They are gonna have to face the Ravens.
They can make a wild card. This is a really
really important game. Yes, maybe for both teams, but I
feel more so for the Steelers, and I think the
Steelers are better. I think it's interesting that the Steelers
just got blown out by I mean, I'm thinking correctly,
they got blown out right.
Speaker 2: Or by the charger.
Speaker 1: The chargers pay the chargers. Oh that was sweet. I
had the charges now one. So yeah, they struggled. They
look bad, they look terrible. Now they're five and a
half here. I don't know. That's just kind of screaming
to me. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. You
and me can go and Brown does some guys and
go score on them. Stealers, team total over or Stellers
look like the ways to play this game for me,
at least as of right down. What are you thinking?
Speaker 2: Well, I meant to mention this when we just talked
about Baltimore in their quest to get to the division lead.
Here a game behind the Steelers, They're gonna be fairly
happy here because Joe Burrow's back at practice, and if
Joe plays here, then you know they could. They're two
and oh inside believe it or not, Ski, they're two
and oh in the AFC. Nor both of these teams
since he in Baltimore that have had a ton of
trouble still, at least where divisional tie breakers are concerned,
are in really good shape and Pittsburgh didn't run away
with the division. Can you trust Cincinnati's defense against anybody?
Absolutely not. Can you trust if Joe Burrow is able
to go, can you trust him against the Pittsburgh defense? Probably,
which would lead you to an over the weather condition's
real quick here. I'm going to get the update in
Pittsburgh just to make sure it's not as bad and
it's not anywhere near as bad as this going to
be in Cleveland. So you got decent weather in Pittsburgh.
These two teams. I could see fifty points being scored
in this game. I think the totals forty eight and
a half forty nine. But I have to make sure
Burrow's okay after he practices this week. But he's there.
He's out there in pads and throwing it around. And
I think Cincinnati, to your point when you said are
they done, they're desperate, et cetera, et cetera, they probably
feel the same way. And if there's any way shape
or for him, they can get him on the field.
I don't think they have him back in practice for
no reason, let's put it that way. I think they
see the schedule coming up. I think they see, hey, listen,
really two games behind these guys. Let's throw Burrow out
there and see if we can win one by outscoring them.
So if I play that game, and I might, it'll
be on the over.
Speaker 1: That makes sense. I mean we just saw Chargers a
lot of the Stellers, right yeah, I mean over over
does make some sense. I would just worry. I mean,
Joe Burrow hasn't played in so long. Is he gonna
come back out and just look like amazing right away?
That would give me some hesitation. So Stealers are over.
I guess kind of how we're feeling about that one
right now. You know, I didn't really look at this
game before right now, honestly, but Tampa Bay and Buffalo.
Tampa Bay just what I think off the top of
my head, they very unimpressive. Like I know, you're minus
Mike Evans, and but I haven't liked anything that I've
been seeing from Tampa Bay lately. Again off the top
of my head, not looking at anything in front of me. Buffalo,
I feel like this is the team that really needs
to win. Let me actually pull this up here, let
me get to the NFL, and this my bad, you guys.
So the Bills they are both teams are coming off losses,
but let me just see the Bills here. Was it
back to back losses for the Bills. No, they beat
the Chiefs and beat the Panthers, so they're two and
two of their last four games there, And uh, I mean,
I think the Bills are the better team. I trust
Josh Allen more than I trust Baker and whatever he
has over there with him. I guess I'm just trying
to find reasons to to back the Bills other than
just just how I feel about fighting the Buccaneers. Do
you have any thoughts here on.
Speaker 2: This game, both of these defenses that have gone south? Ski,
I mean, Devon a Chan was running like it was
nothing against the Bills, and we talked about the Bills
run defense right now. The Dad Oliver's going for the year.
They had almost two hundred yards rushing last week, and
then Tampa last week at home to your point against
New England got shredded. They to Mayfield's credit, they almost
came back at the end in that game, but they
still lost. They weren't the better team. They gave up.
I'm trying to remember. I think it was over four
hundred yards worth of offense in that game. We know
Buffalo can move the football. We know James Cook that
one thing Buffalo can do really, really well is run
the football. Tampa Bay supposedly good run defense, Like I say,
Travion Henderson broke off a couple sixty yard touchdown runs.
We can against them, So how good is this run defense?
Maybe that's more myth than reality right now. I think
that probably you know, we got to check into Buffalo
weather because this totals come down forty nine and a
half to forty seven and a half. To me, the
best thing about these two teams right now is both
of their offenses. It's a non conference game, so there's
no real tie breaking implications here. I think you'll see
a wide open contest. And I'm just trying to look
here really fast for the Buffalo weather so we can
get it for the chat here so we know what
we're talking about.
Speaker 1: Sunday looks like fifteen to twenty miles hour sustained gusting
over thirty miles per hour. So that's not good if
you like the people in the chat who are thinking
over and I think what it would, Oh, go ahead,
maybe rain and snow as well.
Speaker 2: The temperatures are cool to twenty nine twenty seven. That's
not good for Tampa Bay to come from Florida into
that kind of weather. And it is good for Buffalo
because if it means you have to run the football,
their offensive line and James Cook and Josh Allen are
the better running game by far. So this could lead
to more of a play on Buffalo, which I think
is where you started this whole thing. They're laying five
and a half. Yeah, five and a half the best
number you can get here, So we'll look further into it.
But the way we're talking about it right now would
lead towards the Buffalo Bills. But even though their defense,
just man, that run defense is scary bad right now.
Speaker 1: It is Buccaneers. Bucky Irving's been hurt for so long.
I think he might be back though, but again, who
knows if he is back or how they're looking this
first game back. I can't help but point this out
to Ravino. I mean, if that run game is not
worth for the Buccaneers. They played the Patriots last week, right,
you had so many chances to go down and score, Like,
how many chances did they go down and just turn
over on downs? You know? What I'm saying, like, that's
against a poor Patriots pass defense. Bill's pass defense is
better than that. I see Tampa Bay maybe struggling a
little bit more than people think here. I'm starting to
feel like even more so than Bill's maybe even just
the under and or Tampa Bay team total under or
the under in the game. Maybe Tampa Bay team total under.
If you can't score on that Patriots pass defense, how
you gonna score here against Buffalo? Don't know if you
have Bucky back, if he does, it's his first game,
how's it gonna look. I know Bill's rush defense is
not great, but even if they're running the ball, it's
gonna tick tick tick tick tick tick Tampa Bay team
total under or under along with the the wins right
in this game. I don't know that's calling my name, Robie. No, yeah,
I'm opening my wallet. I'm looking here. I mean, we're
gonna be off here soon. Let me just it did
up in forty nine and a half and came down there.
Let me forty seven, Hey man, I might I might
have found something there with that. Let me go ahead
and write this down before I forget that. They put
that big arrow down, all right, there's only one other
game I think that we have. Oh, actually, it's just
a lot of good games this week. I feel like
we should at least mention even if we don't have
too much saying, uh my bad not sand Fran. Hell no,
that was not the good game. I was talking about
Seattle and the Rams. Three point favorite forty seven and
a half opener looks like forty eight and a half now, man,
Seattle's look damn good. Darnold looks good. It feels like
they're able to score on anybody. I do like this
Rams defense. The Rams have looked good too. You know,
I can't help but think. And I'm a group these together,
and I'll ask you can pick which one you want
to talk about if not both this game right here,
Detroit and Philadelphia. I mean, they're both two really huge games,
like playoff type games. And it's just reminded me like
we just saw the Eagles and the Packers, right, how
low scoring defensive game that was. I feel like both
of these games can be like that as well. I'm
thinking about under in both. Do you have any feeling
on either?
Speaker 2: Well, I think we're Eagles Lions is concerned Ski The
problem for the Eagles is going to be. These offensive
linemens just keep getting hurt. I mean, we equate Philadelphia
with that offensive line in Saquon, and things aren't the
same because that offensive line they got banged up again
the other night in that ten to seven win against
Green Bay. You saw Eagles lineman going off the field,
Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens didn't even play backups. Tyler Stein's
not even a starter. He's hurt. So they're going way
into the depth chart. Lane Johnson's hurt. Everybody's got a
question mark next to their name. They're not the same
without that offensive line, nor is Detroit. Right when Detroit
is good, their defensive line is good, and yeah, when
they got stung by injuries last year and the protection
wasn't there for Jared Goff, then it makes a different
It makes them a different team. They've got injuries as well.
I'm looking at the questionables this week, Decker, Glasgow, Penney Sewell,
so that's both your tackles and your center. That's not good.
It's hard to make judgment from a side perspective on
that game until we know who's going to be across
those offensive lines. But to your point about under it
seems like the defensive lines could be the two best
units on the field because Aiden Hutchinson and those guys
will get after it. And on the other side, they
just got Jalen Phillips the Eagles did from Miami and
that pass rush looked great against Jordan Love the other night,
so it could be just a defensive battle in that game.
Total probably pretty high, right I'm not staring at it
right now. It looks like seven seems a little high.
If we don't have these offensive lineman, ski, that's six
of the best in the business. They might not play
or we'll play bag up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's making a lot of sense to me.
I didn't check if this was a weather game or anything.
I mean, Billy, you never know, you could have some weather.
Let me just glance. I don't see them on the
list here, so not really any weather stuff. But lack
of offensive line should hit under both offenses. That definitely. You know,
we like to go to logic score around here. One
plus one that equals two for me, right there, So
put that up the short list as well.
Speaker 2: The NBA never heard of logic school. That's why we're.
Speaker 1: Having Oh no, I don't believe in that shit. They
don't believe in that shit right now? Uh uh this
this new age, Yeah, throw that ship right out the window.
But uh oh yeah, I think we're good.
Speaker 2: At the other game. Real quick, I'll just say two
quick words that the Seattle defense is probably the most
underrated unit in the league right now. That defense has
been Mike McDonald right. He was the defensive coordinator for
the Ravens. Took him a little bit to get a
Ravens type defense, but his his quote before the season
started Ski is we're gonna make us that nobody can
run on us. And really people haven't run on them,
but the Rams through the air. Matthew Stafford's having such
a great year right now. And when you have Nakua
and the Ante Adams running around out there, that's tough.
And to your point, I mean, they added Rashid Shaheed
to that receiving crew last week in the trade deadline
with JSN, who I think JSN became the fastest since
Calvin Johnson to a thousand yards in the season and
they run the ball too, So it looks like these
offenses can do whatever they want. Despite the fact that
the defenses are so good. That's a tough handycap. But
Seattle is four and oh on the road, So if
you can take an undefeated road team and grab some
points inside the division, that might be a good way
to go here.
Speaker 1: All right, there we go. We'll wrap it up on
that note. We talked about almost almost all the games,
a good amount of games that we'll see on Sunday.
Talked about Thursday Night football. We talked about NBAS three
games for today. Now we'll do a little bit of
this this promo stuff. I'll put the same stuff up.
If you want to be involved with every football play
made Saturday, Sunday and Monday, you can get them from
either of us for only forty nine dollars. And uh yeah,
Veno has been pulling an NFL. I know that for sure,
and I'm gonna be you know. I didn't talk about props,
but I will have props. My props are ten and
three so far this season. I will have that going
this weekend. We have bad We have the basketball version,
bull Court, All Access College Basketball, and NBA. If you
want to rock for a few days, you can get
it for only thirty nine dollars. If you want to
go a little bit longer, get ten days of picks
for less than ten dollars per day. If you want
to go longer than that year past, you can take
five hundred dollars off comes out to one twenty five
a month. And if you go get Rob Vino you
will receive a twenty five percent bonus coupon. He can
come and check Ski out as well. So a lot
of different ways to get involved if you would like to.
Now you know, on that note, we will move to
best bets, and you know it's tough pickings today, so
if you don't have one, it's all good, but if
you do, we would love to hear it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if if the chat doesn't mind. I know we
generally go to the NBA here, but I'm going to
avoid the NBA for best bet here and just go
to the football game that we talked about. I think
New England first half is a solid play bet at
myself gave it out the clients earlier this afternoon. So
New England minus seven first half for the best bet.
I'll just say really quick to Ski because I don't
ever I should probably promote this a little more because
he's a friend of ours and I love doing the
show with him this afternoon.
Speaker 1: Always for me, I don't have a whole lot of
friends though, I'm just kidding.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you like this guy though, four ten, four fifteen
Eastern time. Every single week I do college football every
game on the board with Drew Martin. It's live on Twitter. Yeah, Drew.
Drew's our guy, right, We like Drew. And it's live
on Twitter and it's a bit put into podcast forms.
She can catch it afterwards. But I have about a
seventeen eighteen game, you know, span every single week, bottom
of the bottom of the card. So if you're interested
in college football, tune into Drew and myself this afternoon
about four to ten Eastern time. We'll give you some
insight into college football as well.
Speaker 1: All right, great stuff. Yeah, I'm not gonna lie to
you guys. You heard me today. I didn't feel confident
enough to get to the window early. I have a
lot of I mean, I'm looking at all of Honestly,
I'm looking at all the dogs today in the NBA.
Doesn't mean I'm gonna bet every single dog, no, but
I'm trying to find as many reasons as I can
to pick the one I am going to back so
I'm looking at that, looking at different ways to back
the Patriots. You guys hurt the show. You know, feel
different ways about games. We don't have a bet bet
today for the show, so tomorrow we will have a
full lowed slate of NBA. It'll probably be a lot
easier to pick these best bets, so maybe if we
have a couple we'll throw, we'll throw them out there tomorrow.
You know, appreciate you taking the time to come cat
these games with me. I always enjoy our process. Everybody
in the chat. We appreciate you guys tapping in as well.
If you can hit the like button, it helps us
out and we will be back again tomorrow. Best of
luck on all your action tonight.