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Speaker 1: NFL Week twelve is right around the corner.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get you ready with all those barking dogs

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those primetime games. Of course, we're gonna get the early

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steam report from VR and see if we've got a

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sandwich or a trap game this week. Best bets. I've

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got to turn it around on this week's beat on

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It Monday when I did the script, Buffalo is a

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three and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: Now they're up to six and a lot.

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Speaker 2: Of spots there on the Odds logic screen at Houston

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total forty three and a half. But before we get

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into it, we gotta bring in the guys. We've got

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Marco dangel there in the middle, We've got Yanni the

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Greek in the third chair, and we're gonna keep it rolling.

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Speaker 1: You guys have been red hot.

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Speaker 2: My best bets have been the Achilles heel of the show,

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as the comments section likes to tell me. But we're

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gonna turn it around right here by telling you guys

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that I know Buffalo got back in the win cal

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him against said best bet of the Bucks last week,

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and Houston hey back to back divisional game winners versus

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the Jags and the Titans, all with a little guy

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named Davis Mills.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 1: CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud for Thursday Night Football was already announced this morning,

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and I think that's probably why we saw this line

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come up since Monday. But as Davis Mill has really

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been that bad, seven and twenty six yards, sixty percent completions,

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three touchdowns, one interception, Okay, fine, he hasn't been that good.

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Speaker 1: But you know who has been really good? Defense?

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Speaker 2: That's right, the Texans number one in EPA per play allowed,

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number three and success rate number two and passing success

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rate and number four in EPA per rush attempt. You're

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gonna give me six points with that defense at home

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on a short week, I'm gonna take it. Next up,

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we've got the team that scorned me, and VR is

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going to tell you Night Football whether the Buccaneers plus

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six and a half at the La Rams forty nine

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and a half is worth.

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Speaker 3: A look yet.

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Speaker 4: Disclaimer, I have not gotten to the window with this game.

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But seven and four on the TV bet in the

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NFL coming into this week twenty twelve and one on

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bet on it, that's sixty three percent combined with college

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football bet on it forty eight twenty and one, So

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that's over seventy percent. So far, so good. Let's keep

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it going. Not going to mess with the side yet

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because I have a strong lean, but I need some

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confirmation to get to the window done real good with

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these primetime games. Don't want to paint myself into a corner.

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But let's look at this total where I think we

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got some value on the under because I think it's

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inflated up at forty.

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Speaker 5: Nine and a half and we haven't seen any movement.

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That's what I like.

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Speaker 4: You're not seeing that even the wise guys getting out

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ahead of the public who will be betting this game over,

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they haven't gotten out ahead of it. Where usually that's

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what you see on the primetime games, where we'd wake

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up and look at at least a fifty and a

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half because they expect the market to move in that direction.

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But here's the recency bias that we can take advantage of.

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You have Tampa Bay who's coming in have been scored

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thirty two, twenty three, twenty three. You have the Rams

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who come in scoring twenty one, forty two, thirty four,

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thirty five, a lot of points, a lot of points.

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Speaker 5: But when you look at.

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Speaker 4: The side of Tampa, this is the highest total they've

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had the entire season.

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Speaker 5: No total this high for Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 4: And then when you look at the Rams, only twice

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in their last ten games they have they had a

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total that has been this high. And they're actually have

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had one game more to the under than over their

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last ten. In fact, only four overs in their last

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ten games, So both are looking at a much higher

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total than usual. Why because of that recency bias. But

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let's look at the matchup real quickly. Tampa Bay looks

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like they gave up a lot of points of late,

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but they went up against some very powerful offenses. More importantly,

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last week, they went up against the number one offense

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in Buffalo, who they allowed forty four points to. That's

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not going to be the same offense they're facing this

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week against the Rams top ten offense, but nothing compared

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to the number one offense of Buffalo, so it'll be

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almost like slow motion again compared to last week. And

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then on the Rams side, you're looking at the best

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defense in the NFL efficiency wise, so a Tampa offense

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that's very respectable top ten considering they had the third

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toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. But they're really

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going to get tested this week against the Rams, who've

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also had a top ten strength of schedule and are

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number one inefficiency, So I don't think Tampa's going to

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have an easy go of it like they've had over

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the last four or five weeks. With that said, gonna

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go under forty nine and a half. Again, I thought

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we'd get even higher number, thought that the Sharps would

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go over. That's not the case, So we'll go forty

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nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: I like it all right.

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Speaker 2: Monday Night Football for Marco DiAngelo my NFC South prediction

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winner that was the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, they're just kind

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of frustrating at times, also been plagued by the injury bug.

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Speaking the injury bug, the Niners who they're facing, and

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finally starting to get healthy. And I think we can

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all agree that brock Party is better than MATC.

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Speaker 1: Jones.

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Speaker 2: Marco, this line is interesting, just sitting there six and

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a half as the favorite there for San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: Forty eight and a half is the total.

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Speaker 2: Make this one make a little bit of sense because

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I've got to thinking that I would have expected more

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of a seven and a half point favorite for the Niners.

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Speaker 1: So this one looks like it's begging for San fran money.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, on the straight play. Yeah, But I'm not going

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that way, Kelly. I'm going to go like VR. I'm

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looking at the total and I'm looking at the under

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in this one. In the similarities from the game the

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VR just did in this one, they're the same because

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it's recency bias. If you look at this total of

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forty eight and a half and you look at last

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week's games, Carolina won thirty to twenty seven, fifty seven points,

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and then San Francisco won forty one to twenty two.

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They scored sixty three points. What's the public going to

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do on a standalone game on a Monday night. They're

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gonna bet the over, and that's not the way to

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go here. I'm looking at the under because if you

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dig deeper and you look at San Francisco last week,

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they put up forty one points with just two hundred

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and eighty one yards of offense. What they did in

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that game They had a ninety nine yard kick return

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to start the game and then they had three Arizona turnovers.

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That did Arizona in Carolina. If you look at their game,

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they put up thirty, but they caught an Atlanta team

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that was in a horrible scheduling spot. Atlanta played the

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week before overseas, they didn't take their bye week afterwards.

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That is bad. We saw earlier this season when Denver

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did that, and we know how good the Denver defense is.

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They gave up thirty one to thirty one or thirty

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two points to the Giants that week in that miraculous

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comeback game. So it's a situation where we're getting an

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overreaction to one game. Go back to the four previous

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games for Carolina. They scored seven, sixteen, nine, and thirteen

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points in their four games before last week's explosion. Bryce

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Young four hundred and nineteen yards last week passing the football.

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You know what he had in his three previous games

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combined three hundred and thirty four. No, I'm not gonna

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go with the over here, and if I'm in San Francisco,

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we know the problem with the forty nine ers. It's

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their defense, and it's because of all the injuries they've

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suffered on that side of the football this year. Yes,

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they're getting healthier on the offensive side, but the defensive

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side is still vulnerable. So what does that mean, you

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want to keep the defense off the field. How do

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you keep the defense off the field. You run the football.

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And when you got a running back named Christian McCaffrey,

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you're gonna hand him the ball in this one. And

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he's gonna be a little pumped up for this game

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because he's facing his former teammates. Let's go ahead and

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take under forty eight and a half. Now, I normally

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I tell you when I give you a total, act

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on this one. Now, because it's gonna move weight on

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this one. There's only one way the public's gonna bet

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this game. They're gonna bet it over. We'll get value

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closer to game time. I'm taking under the total, but

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for the official rating for the show, it's forty eight

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and a half right now, Okay.

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Speaker 2: On Sundays and Sunday VR is going to join me

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as I fill in for Aero Epstein. On Last Call,

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we do a little segment called the steam Room an

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hour up until kickoff, VIR goes through the entire NFL

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slate with you guys. Premium subscribers are always invited, and

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of course, wager Talk insiders will be invited this week

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to join wager Talk Insiders and wt Dot Buzz backslash Insiders.

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If you give them the early week preview of what

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the wise guys are playing.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, we're gonna zero in on those NFL games

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that I've seen multiple groups attack and more importantly, after

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the initial hit on the look ahead lines and join

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me on Sunday hour before kickoff. We'll go through all

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the NFL games as much as time permits. Signed totals

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player props there to answer all your questions. We'll put

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those plus EB teasers together towards the end of the show,

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and again you'll get the live stuff also. Now here's

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some of the moves for some. They start off two

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forty three New York Jets j e ts took the

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two touchdowns and a hook at fourteen and a half.

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Also took out the fourteens against Baltimore New York Giants

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at eleven and a half. You saw them post that

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number really high compared to that look ahead They took

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that down and that's why you're looking at ten and

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a half against Detroit. So the New York parlay Jets

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and Giants, New England Patriots game two forty seven, no

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surprise getting out ahead of the market. That'll be heavily

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one sided from the public as well. The look ahead

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was four and a half. They moved it to five

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immediately on. The look ahead went to five and a half,

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went to six, six and a half. That's why you're

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looking at a touchdown now two forty nine Seattle minus

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twelve and a half and thirteen against Tennessee.

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Speaker 5: They also steamed that.

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Speaker 4: One under, So usually the correlation is you're gonna cover thirteen,

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probably gonna go over a low total of forty two.

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Not the case here. Don't expect much scoring from Tennessee.

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That total got hit at forty two, which was the

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look ahead. Forty two and a half got hit it

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forty one under as well, and then forty and a

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half earlier this morning to sixty New Orleans the Saints

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plus three and a half, three two and a half,

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one one and a half, all because of Penix. So

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quickly the books were adjusting based on that news. But

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when it got to its high as Saints minus two,

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that's when you saw some take back on Atlanta. So

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wanted to put that game in there because it's getten

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a lot of volume already, and you saw that that

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flip of the favorite that happened very quickly because of

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the penis injury. And finally to sixty six San Francisco

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minus the five and a half, minus the six and

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a half and then over forty five and a half

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and forty six look ahead forty seven, forty seven and

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a half and forty eight.

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Speaker 5: So they light that over in the Niners. It's going

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to do it. For this week's steam report, join me

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Sunday morning for last Coal and then steam Room right after.

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Speaker 2: And because I've been bringing up the bottom of the

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barrel in terms of best bets, the marking Dog segment

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has been our best segment all season long. Here on

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the show, Marco Dandel, I'm gonna let you go first.

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Speaker 1: This is the dog I was looking at as well.

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Speaker 2: There's a few around that field goal underdog that are

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rather enticing this week.

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Speaker 1: Tell me why you like the Cleveland Browns well, Kelly.

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Speaker 3: A couple of weeks ago, we got comments in the

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YouTube channel asking if I was off my meds, and

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they might ask again because we're even looking at this

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game Cleveland and the Raiders, you know, and I equate

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this game to being like trying to decide whether you

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want to be punched in the face or kicked in

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the balls. Neither one's gonna be pleasant. But somebody's got

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to win this game. And this is what I'm looking at. Yes,

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Shador Sanders makes his NFL debut this week as a starter.

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We saw him last week and oh god, was it awful.

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And that's what people are going to react to, is

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because when he did come into the game last week,

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it was ugly. But here's the thing. He came into

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the game coll didn't get the first string snaps last week,

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was running the game plan that was designed for Dylan Gabriel,

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not him. Now he's gonna have had a week of snaps,

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gonna have a game plan that's prepared Taylor made to

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what strengths he has, and we'll find out if he

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has any. And he's gonna be going against a Raider

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team that is a complete dumpster fire. It has been

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a train wreck of a season for the Raiders. The

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defense is not playing well, the offense is playing pitiful.

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Geno Smith is reverted back to New York Jet Gino Smith.

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They can't score, and they're coming off of back to

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back nationally televised games. If you remember two weeks ago,

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they played division rival Denver on Thursday night football, big

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game for them. They put up good effort and they

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only lost by three, and then they had to follow

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that up with another the primetime game on Monday night,

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in which, you know, let's be honest, you know, they

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looked horrible against Dallas and they couldn't move the football

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against the Dallas defense that everybody moves the football against.

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So the one consistent factor with the Browns all year

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has been that defense. How are the Raiders going to

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move the football against the Cleveland brown defense?

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Speaker 1: They're not.

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Speaker 3: And you hear me say it all the time. Give

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me the better defense getting points. That's where I'm gonna

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line up, and the Raiders should not be a three

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and a half point favorite against anybody, even a Shador

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Sanders led Browns team. I'm gonna go ahead take the

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Cleveland Browns as my barking dog. It's gonna be ugly

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to watch sixteenth thirteen equivalent to paint dry, watching paint dry,

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paint dry.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's uh, it's better than what we saw on

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Monday night from the Raiders. The Raiders were just completely abysmal.

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith just got decimated by the Dallas defense v R.

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I'm gonna talk about Dallas here in a minute, but

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we're gonna go to you first, because your marking dog

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is pretty sizable here, and maybe you think that people

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should be a little nervous playing against them here in Survivor.

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Speaker 5: Yeh.

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Speaker 4: And I'm fading the wise guys because earlier in that'

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steme report you heard New England minus four and a half,

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minus five, then the five, five and a half, six,

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six and a half. I've bet it at plus eight

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and a half. I sent it out to subscribers at

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plus eight and a half on Cincinnati because that's just.

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Speaker 5: Way too many points.

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Speaker 4: And the difference between what wise guys bet and what

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the number is now are two completely different games. So

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I'm not afraid of them having a ticket of New

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England minus four and a half, five and a half

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or even six in their pockets. We're up over a touchdown.

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That's key here with Cincinnati. I was surprised, why is

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it that high? But then I took a look at

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the ESPN power ratings, and here's what I see their

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power rankings. Forgive me, they're tough Rams Philly, New England,

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Indianapolis and Denver.

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Speaker 5: That's their top five. So what do you see there?

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Top records in the league?

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Speaker 4: Right, everyone who's sitting at the top of the division

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at seven and at eight and two is.

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Speaker 5: In their top power rankings.

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Speaker 4: Right, nothing could be further from the truth. They got

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one right, They got one right. That was the La

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Rams are the highest power rated team right now on

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my power ratings as well, overtaking Detroit who was number

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one last week at my numbers, but behind the Rams

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or Detroit who.

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Speaker 5: Dropped it a second slot. KC, Yes five and five.

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Speaker 4: KC. The power rankings show who would be favored, and

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I'm telling you right now, only one or two teams

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would be favored over Kansas City on a neutral Seattle

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number four, Buffalo number five power rating wise. And that's

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why we're able to take advantage of New England because

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they have New England top three.

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Speaker 5: I have New England.

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Speaker 4: They just cracked my face. They're barely fifteenth. They're fourteenth

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power rating wise, the fourteenth best team, so they'd beat

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dogs to thirteen other teams even sitting at that record,

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and why they've had the thirty second toughest strength of schedule,

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so they've had the easiest schedule in all of the NFL,

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and yet they're only fifteenth most efficient offense, twelfth most

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efficient defense. Like, they're barely in the top half of

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the NFL with the very easiest schedule. They've gotten wins,

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that's the bottom line, but they're not that good as

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their rankings show, power rating wise on sites like ESPN.

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Speaker 5: Look at Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: Now they're facing a Cincinnati team had a much tougher

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strength of schedule. Offensively more efficient, they're top fifteen defense.

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Speaker 5: That's where they're week.

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Speaker 4: But fortunately they're going up against a week offense fifteenth

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in New England who had a thirty second strength of schedule.

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See how that all fits together. It'll be easier for

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Cincinnati this week than off Late. Again, New England's been

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winning games and outperforming the betting market. That was impressive.

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We talked about that a few weeks ago. But like

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all efficient markets, they correct itself. And what has happened

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to New England over the last three weeks. They've won

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three games, but they've only covered one of those. That's

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the reflection of the market doing exactly what it's supposed

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to do. And now they're playing a Cincinnati team that's

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coming in having underperformed three straight games. That's why they're

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getting more than a touchdown now. In those three games

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that they lost, they were never getting more than five

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and a half points. In fact, they were favored in

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two of those. They're now an eight and a half

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point dog. Give me Cincinnati plus the points. I'm not

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worried about injuries and stuff like that. I'll take the

354
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home team here. New England overrated over and this number

355
00:19:01,839 --> 00:19:02,720
is just way too high.

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Speaker 2: I don't know VR if the comment section of the

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show is anything like my.

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Speaker 5: Bring it please, please please, because right now I get

359
00:19:11,759 --> 00:19:12,400
it every week.

360
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Speaker 2: Hands so mad at me that I turned around and

361
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picked a fight with Bears fans, and I'm like, I'm

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a Broncos fan.

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Speaker 1: I think they're overrated as well.

364
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Speaker 4: Hell, I have no bias. I get it every week

365
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in the Dogs. And here here's what I am with

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the dogs in the NFL, with these ugly dogs. Eight

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two and one eighty percent.

368
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Speaker 5: With these ugly dogs.

369
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Speaker 4: And if you didn't like that dog, here I'll give you.

370
00:19:34,319 --> 00:19:36,680
I'll give you the Vegas race right here. Formula one

371
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,079
is in Vegas this week. I'll give you a plus

372
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four to fifty. The winner of the race is going

373
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to be where'd he go?

374
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Speaker 5: George Russell? George Russell plus.

375
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Speaker 4: Four fifty to win the Formula one race here in

376
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:51,640
Las Vegas.

377
00:19:51,759 --> 00:19:53,279
Speaker 5: And then bet Kimmy.

378
00:19:53,039 --> 00:19:55,599
Speaker 4: K I am I that's the last name at plus

379
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two hundred to be on the podium to finish top three.

380
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,720
And finally, the the team with the most points and

381
00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:05,440
also the team the winning constructor, that's a prompt will

382
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,920
be Mercedes AMG. Mercedes AMG will have the most points

383
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,119
at plus one fifty and they will be the winning

384
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,759
constructor at plus three hundred. So you got it, plus

385
00:20:14,839 --> 00:20:18,079
four fifty, plus two hundred, plus three hundred and plus

386
00:20:18,079 --> 00:20:20,799
one fifty. If that's not enough barking dogs for you,

387
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what could I do?

388
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Speaker 5: What could I do? Jicksell?

389
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Speaker 1: I get it.

390
00:20:24,279 --> 00:20:27,279
Speaker 2: The marking dog segment has been my saving grace this year.

391
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Got it done last week with Carolina. They knocked talkings

392
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out of a ton of people in survivor pools. And

393
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I think no one's probably gonna use the Eagles this weekend.

394
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Hopefully they're gonna save it for Black Friday. Speaking of

395
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Black Friday, we're gonna be doing a Thanksgiving and Black

396
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Friday Show.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do it early in the week. If you

398
00:20:45,519 --> 00:20:45,880
are an.

399
00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:49,319
Speaker 2: Insider WT Dot buzz backslash Insiders to join you, guys

400
00:20:49,319 --> 00:20:53,599
are gonna get early access to that one Tuesday afternoon.

401
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,960
We'll call it Tuesday Afternoon is you'll get all four

402
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,799
games from us for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and then

403
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of course same time, same place next Wednesday for the

404
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Sunday games as well as Monday Night Football.

405
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Speaker 1: Now I'm taking the Dallas.

406
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: Cowboys here, plus the field goal and the hook.

407
00:21:11,039 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 1: And I know the Eagles have won and covered their.

408
00:21:12,839 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: Last four games, including last week that sleepy.

409
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Speaker 1: Home win over the Lions.

410
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 2: Dallas needed that bye week so badly, and then they

411
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,440
came out with an impressive road win over Well. I

412
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,039
know it's still the Raiders, but that defense showed up

413
00:21:28,079 --> 00:21:32,200
and has looked significantly better since Week seven. Number nineteen

414
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,680
in EPA per play, Number fifteen in EPA per drop back.

415
00:21:36,599 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 1: Now with a new guy named Quinnon Williams there as

416
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a defensive tackle.

417
00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:43,759
Speaker 2: He had one and a half sacks last week, and

418
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I think that he has motivated this defensive line, which

419
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,759
bodes well with the Eagles offensive line, who is going

420
00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:53,720
to be without Lane Johnson for this game, and I

421
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,880
think that people don't recognize how a veteran offensive lineman

422
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,079
can affect the yes. I also know Dallas is on

423
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,759
a short week and hopefully Ceedee Lamb and George Piggins

424
00:22:05,759 --> 00:22:08,480
actually follow team rules so they can play the first

425
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series of this game. But I do think that I'm

426
00:22:11,559 --> 00:22:14,039
going to take the better defense plus the points here.

427
00:22:14,279 --> 00:22:18,599
Remember Dallas had held Ashon Johns to seven roushing yards

428
00:22:18,599 --> 00:22:19,799
on six carries on Monday Night.

429
00:22:20,319 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: Maybe they can do the same for Saquon on Sunday.

430
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Speaker 2: Give me the Cowboys plus three and a half as

431
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my barking dog.

432
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Speaker 1: For NFL Week twelve.

433
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Speaker 2: Marco DiAngelo, your standalone segment is called the Deli. We've

434
00:22:35,839 --> 00:22:37,880
been doing it for years on the show, and you

435
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,039
decided with our production team, Hey, I'm gonna make this

436
00:22:41,079 --> 00:22:44,480
bigger because there's so many teams that fit into these situations,

437
00:22:44,519 --> 00:22:48,079
whether it's college football or NFL, and we want to

438
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,200
give them to our audience for free here on the

439
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,480
Wager Talking YouTube channel.

440
00:22:52,599 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 1: Tell everybody how the Deli's been doing. I'll give you

441
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:56,440
guys a hind It's been really good.

442
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: Well, Delli, we've had eight winning weeks only to lose

443
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,640
weeks one break even week. That's pretty good run. That's

444
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,480
converted to thirty five and eighteen for the season. We

445
00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:10,519
give five games on the show each week and that'll

446
00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:13,720
come out on Thursday and then of course be part

447
00:23:13,759 --> 00:23:16,960
of the bet on It Mega Show as well. So

448
00:23:17,079 --> 00:23:20,759
check out the Deli and I love you guys jumping

449
00:23:20,799 --> 00:23:23,559
into the comments section. We get a lot of interaction

450
00:23:24,319 --> 00:23:27,079
into comments, a lot of people. I like to hear

451
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,319
where everybody is watching from, see where our audience base is,

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and we've had people watching from other countries and everything else.

453
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It's really cool. So tune in Thursday for that and

454
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,400
this week for the Deli, we're looking at a track

455
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,640
trap and that trap game is going to be the

456
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Arizona Jacksonville game. This is gonna be hard to swallow

457
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,079
off of last week's results, but guys, we know the

458
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,200
old saying nobody is as good as their best game.

459
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:04,720
Enter the Jacksonville Jaguars who beat the Chargers. Who was

460
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,519
everybody's darling after they took care of the Steelers on

461
00:24:07,559 --> 00:24:12,319
Sunday Night Football. They beat them thirty five to six. Oh,

462
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,319
what's the second part of the saying nobody is as

463
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bad as their worst game. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, who

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lost last week forty one to twenty two to the

465
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forty nine Ers. Now, I mentioned in that game that

466
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the forty nine er game was very misleading, as the

467
00:24:30,759 --> 00:24:33,319
forty nine Ers had all those points, forty one points

468
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with just two hundred and eighty one yards of offense.

469
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,000
Why well, we told you that kick return and three

470
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:46,440
Arizona turnovers. Guess what Jacoby Burssett had last year. Last

471
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,279
week he led that team to four hundred and eighty

472
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eight yards of offense in defeat. I look for them

473
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to have a big game this week. And before you

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start jumping up and down about Jacksonville and how they

475
00:24:59,039 --> 00:25:03,680
demolished the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence had just one hundred and

476
00:25:03,759 --> 00:25:07,119
fifty three yards passing last week. Yeah, granted, they had

477
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,480
a big lead most of the games, so they were

478
00:25:09,559 --> 00:25:12,400
running the football, But what about the week before you

479
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,440
only had one hundred and nineteen yards. I cannot fall

480
00:25:16,559 --> 00:25:20,119
for Jacksonville as a road favorite. They're in the old

481
00:25:20,319 --> 00:25:23,680
fat and sassy alert mode after that win last week.

482
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,359
This will be the third road game in four weeks

483
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,799
for Jacksonville. But it gets worse if you go back

484
00:25:31,839 --> 00:25:34,319
before the four weeks they had their bye week. What

485
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,880
did they have before the bye week? They played over

486
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:42,039
in London. Think about this. In a matter of six weeks,

487
00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:46,759
they had four games where they traveled. They traveled to London,

488
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:53,119
then they came back here. They played the Raiders here

489
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,799
in Vegas, went back home, played Houston. Then they also

490
00:25:58,319 --> 00:26:02,200
went and played another road game. Now coming here to Arizona,

491
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,599
that is a lot of traveling miles and you're crossing

492
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,839
a lot of time zones coming from Florida. As Kelly

493
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,799
knows that she travels a lot of Florida and traveling

494
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,200
cross country. This is gonna take its tear on this team.

495
00:26:16,599 --> 00:26:19,079
We've got the situation with the travel, We've got the

496
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,240
situation with Fat and Sassy off that big win, and

497
00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:25,599
we got an Arizona team that wasn't as bad as

498
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,200
the score looked last week. I'm gonna go ahead and

499
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,359
take Arizona. I think this is a spot for them

500
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,920
to get a win. I'm calling it Arizona twenty four twenty.

501
00:26:34,599 --> 00:26:37,200
I know it's hard to swallow, but some of those

502
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:42,000
the harder. The ticket to place the bet sometimes are

503
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,000
the easiest to cash.

504
00:26:44,839 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: Marco, I think I'm just gonna have to tease that team,

505
00:26:47,519 --> 00:26:48,799
and teasers been working out.

506
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,559
Speaker 1: Really well, and it just it's not as hard to swallow.

507
00:26:51,279 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 2: When you're getting touchdown there with the Arizona Cardinals. Let's

508
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,359
get into those best bets and I'm hoping to give

509
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,599
you guys a winner this week, but we're gonna let

510
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,079
VR go first. He's got a nice total for you

511
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,440
guys in that exact same game, yep.

512
00:27:06,599 --> 00:27:09,079
Speaker 5: And my NFL package is already up.

513
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,559
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do just like I did last Sunday and

514
00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:15,680
the Sunday before that, just tie up the strongest plays

515
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,480
on that board for Sunday, which will be all the

516
00:27:18,519 --> 00:27:21,839
four percent plays. Last week, the four percent went five

517
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,720
and one, so two of those are already in there.

518
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,359
I know you're at wondering where's the college football card.

519
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,759
It's not up there yet because I'm firing a five

520
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:32,720
percent big move in college football this week. It's only

521
00:27:32,759 --> 00:27:35,359
the fifth this season, so this is the thirteenth week

522
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,480
of college football. This will only be the fifth time

523
00:27:37,519 --> 00:27:40,279
I'm firing a five percent big move in college football.

524
00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:42,519
Up over one hundred and thirty units, and sitting at

525
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,559
number one, that package will be up. I'm just waiting

526
00:27:45,559 --> 00:27:48,119
to see when's the best time to get down on

527
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,039
that big bet. Now here's our best bet as of

528
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,759
today in the NFL. We're gonna look at the Jacksonville

529
00:27:55,839 --> 00:27:59,880
Arizona total and take advantage of some recency bias there.

530
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,920
It looks like Arizona's giving up a lot of points

531
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,400
of late, but if you look at the offenses they

532
00:28:04,519 --> 00:28:09,680
faced in efficiency, they played the number five, number nine,

533
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,680
number four, number three, and number.

534
00:28:12,519 --> 00:28:14,839
Speaker 5: Thirteenth most efficient offenses.

535
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,279
Speaker 4: Okay, now they're going up against Jacksonville that's out of

536
00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:22,279
the top fifteen and didn't have I mean, they had

537
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,000
a decent strength of schedule, but they're out of the

538
00:28:25,039 --> 00:28:27,480
top fifteen, so they're gonna have an easier go of it.

539
00:28:28,279 --> 00:28:31,160
So that defense that is low terrific will have an

540
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,279
easier offense to contend with this week. Same thing with

541
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,319
Jacksonville on their side of the ball, which has been

542
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,960
the weaker side defense, they're not going to have as

543
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,559
difficult a time this week because they're facing offense that's

544
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,240
out of the top fifteen on the Arizona side as well.

545
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,000
So I look for both defenses to perform better because

546
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,119
they're going up against much weaker offenses. And then when

547
00:28:57,119 --> 00:28:59,680
you look at the offensive side of the ball again,

548
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,440
I don't think Jacksonville is gonna have the success they've

549
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,200
had of late, like they did against the Chargers Houston

550
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,000
and Vegas.

551
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 5: When you dig into those box scores, you'll see.

552
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 4: Some horrific turnover differential and I don't think they'll be

553
00:29:17,319 --> 00:29:20,720
able to sustain that. So I think the Jacksonville Jaguars

554
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,480
will have trouble cracking seventeen points this week against Arizona,

555
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,640
and I really don't think Arizona's gonna be able to

556
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,599
crack much more than twenty against them.

557
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 5: This total is just way too high.

558
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,079
Speaker 4: We're gonna go under forty seven and a half best

559
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,880
bet for this week's bet on it.

560
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,319
Speaker 2: Love it that bo's even better for a teaser spot.

561
00:29:39,319 --> 00:29:41,680
And I just gotta figure out if I could use

562
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,880
Marco Steelers for that spot, because I was gonna use

563
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,759
them for my barking dogs, and then they dropped down

564
00:29:45,799 --> 00:29:49,519
to two and a half, So somebody agreed with me there, Marco.

565
00:29:49,599 --> 00:29:50,359
Speaker 1: Before you give me.

566
00:29:50,319 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 2: Your best bet, give me a little sneak peak about

567
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,079
this Steelers team. Do you think Mason Rudolph is comparable

568
00:29:57,279 --> 00:29:58,160
to Aaron Rodgers?

569
00:29:58,279 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 4: Right?

570
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: Obviously the market saying, hey, three and a half was

571
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,599
too many points. I just want a little insight before

572
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,079
you tell me what's going on over at wager talk

573
00:30:05,119 --> 00:30:06,039
dot com.

574
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 3: Oh, Kelly, the thing of it is is Aaron Rodgers,

575
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,799
you know, the old Aaron Rodgers. And I don't mean

576
00:30:11,839 --> 00:30:14,880
old is in right now, old Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, he's

577
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,599
a better, obviously better quarterback than Mason Rudolph. But if

578
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,559
you look at the last game, the Charger game, the

579
00:30:20,599 --> 00:30:23,759
complete pitcher of that game, and really the first half

580
00:30:23,839 --> 00:30:27,000
of the Cincinnati game last week before Aaron Rodgers left

581
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,920
the game, he really wasn't that good, okay, And he

582
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:36,759
doesn't have a lot of mobility. And I'm glad, I

583
00:30:36,799 --> 00:30:38,720
mean don't. I'm not glad that he's hurt, but I'm

584
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,200
glad that Mason Rudolph's getting a chance. If you remember

585
00:30:41,279 --> 00:30:44,160
last year when he came in for the final three

586
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,519
games of the season, he won those three games, got

587
00:30:47,599 --> 00:30:52,119
the Steelers into the playoffs once again. And the Steelers

588
00:30:52,359 --> 00:30:55,359
or no, that was two years ago, excuse me? Did

589
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,960
he got them into the playoffs? He is the guy

590
00:30:58,279 --> 00:31:02,319
that the locker room okay, and they're gonna play hard

591
00:31:02,359 --> 00:31:05,480
for him. And when you saw him come out Sunday

592
00:31:05,799 --> 00:31:08,119
for the second half, when he came onto the field,

593
00:31:08,839 --> 00:31:12,799
the crowd went nuts when he got onto the field

594
00:31:12,839 --> 00:31:15,599
and you saw the team respond to him. I think

595
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,960
they're gonna be just fine this week and going to Chicago,

596
00:31:19,119 --> 00:31:23,440
the cardiac kids who keep coming from behind. Yeah, Kelly,

597
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:29,519
that teaser looks really intriguing on Sunday with the Steelers. Oh,

598
00:31:29,599 --> 00:31:30,759
I guess it's my turn to talk.

599
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: It's my turn to keep talking.

600
00:31:32,559 --> 00:31:32,839
Speaker 3: All right.

601
00:31:32,839 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 2: No, No, I didn't ask you about your best bet yet

602
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,079
because you're going with another team. Total First, let everybody

603
00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:38,200
know what they've got going on.

604
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:39,799
Speaker 1: Over at wager talk dot com.

605
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: We've still got the Weekend Warrior Package available, but we've

606
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,720
got little something extra for our viewers.

607
00:31:46,079 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Weekend Warrior Package has been phenomenal. Everybody loves

608
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,000
that you get all of the play Saturday and Sunday

609
00:31:52,279 --> 00:31:55,279
in football, and if you have a Monday night play,

610
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,559
you're gonna get that free. But why not get everything

611
00:31:58,599 --> 00:32:01,359
if you'll love the football? Right now, We've got a

612
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,480
deal through the Super Bowl and this is for any capper.

613
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,599
You can get all of our plays college and pro

614
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,279
includes the five percent plays through the Super Bowl for

615
00:32:11,319 --> 00:32:14,279
three seventy nine, Kelly, I will have a five percent

616
00:32:14,319 --> 00:32:16,480
this week. We hit our five percent last week with

617
00:32:16,559 --> 00:32:20,319
the Seattle Seahawks. We're now thirty seven and sixteen with

618
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,880
those five percents since February of twenty twenty four. I

619
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,400
don't have a bunch of them, but when we have them,

620
00:32:26,519 --> 00:32:29,559
we win them. And speaking of winning, we've been on

621
00:32:29,599 --> 00:32:33,519
a tear last three weeks. Twenty days, last twenty days,

622
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,960
we are thirty two and fourteen for our clients for

623
00:32:37,039 --> 00:32:40,400
a profit of forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars.

624
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:45,759
Join us myself, Yanni, all of the cappers, pick your

625
00:32:45,799 --> 00:32:48,759
favorite cappers, jump on board. You'll never miss a play

626
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:53,079
from us. And next week with Thanksgiving, there's football every day.

627
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,599
You don't want to miss out on all of the action.

628
00:32:56,039 --> 00:32:58,519
And speaking of action, let's get to that best bet.

629
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,720
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You know. I

630
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,559
actually had somebody in the comments section of the last

631
00:33:04,599 --> 00:33:09,440
week said I don't like team totals. I he replied

632
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,240
that it's okay. Do you like money because we've won

633
00:33:13,359 --> 00:33:16,440
both of them without the sweat. So if it ain't broke,

634
00:33:16,519 --> 00:33:19,119
don't fix it. I'm coming back with another team. Total

635
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,119
jump on board. Everybody is if it ain't broke, don't

636
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,839
fix it. I'm going with who we had two weeks

637
00:33:25,839 --> 00:33:29,079
ago and it was the Detroit Lions, and we're taking

638
00:33:29,079 --> 00:33:31,880
them over thirty and a half points. Why, we know

639
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,640
what Dan Campbell does after a loss. He puts the

640
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,559
pedal to the medal and he's got his team rolling.

641
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,920
And again, Dan, uh, you look at what they've done. Yeah,

642
00:33:44,039 --> 00:33:47,079
four of the last five games they've been held to

643
00:33:47,119 --> 00:33:50,559
twenty four points or less. That's not good, right, No,

644
00:33:51,119 --> 00:33:56,920
but that was against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Philadelphia.

645
00:33:57,119 --> 00:33:59,359
In the Philadelphia game, not only are they going against

646
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,240
you know, defense, they were aided by weather conditions in

647
00:34:03,279 --> 00:34:07,799
Philadelphia last Sunday night. It was very windy there. The

648
00:34:07,839 --> 00:34:12,559
Giants defense not anywhere near any of those defenses. They're

649
00:34:12,599 --> 00:34:15,400
gonna be able to move the football. Plus they're playing

650
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,760
at home, indoors, on the fast track, perfect conditions. You

651
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,800
know what's gonna happen. And yeah, Dan Campbell took a

652
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:28,599
lot of heat last week because he was, you know, stubborn.

653
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,880
He does what Dan Campbell does. It's fourth down. I'm

654
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,760
not I'm not kicking a field goal. I'm going for

655
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,360
it no matter where we're at on the field, and

656
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,360
it backfired on him. So he's got to prove a

657
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,599
point this week. He'll continue to do it. He'll convert

658
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,280
this week against this defense. Give me this one over

659
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,679
the total. I see thirty seven or more points coming

660
00:34:50,679 --> 00:34:54,079
from the Lions this week. Let's take that over thirty

661
00:34:54,119 --> 00:34:54,760
and a half.

662
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,199
Speaker 2: All right, hopelling they can get the outright win for

663
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,000
me for survivor.

664
00:35:00,119 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: Gonna see, I'm a little nervous. I'm a little nervous.

665
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 2: After VR said the wise guys took the points there

666
00:35:05,519 --> 00:35:10,159
with the Giants. Speaking of wise guys, they're probably gonna

667
00:35:10,159 --> 00:35:12,599
be the only ones betting this team because the tire

668
00:35:12,599 --> 00:35:15,679
betting public wants nothing to do with their beloved Kansas

669
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,840
City Chiefs, especially not laying three and a half here

670
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,159
after back to back road losses at Buffalo.

671
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 1: And Denver Indianapolis. They're coming off a bye week.

672
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 2: Prior to that, they probably should have lost to Atlanta

673
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,239
but got the win. I know Chiefs are a little

674
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,639
banged up, Isaiah Pacheco still questionable to return this week

675
00:35:35,039 --> 00:35:36,400
after he missed last week.

676
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,159
Speaker 1: The offense is struggling.

677
00:35:38,679 --> 00:35:41,679
Speaker 2: Everybody loves the under because the last five games have

678
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,960
stayed under the total. But I will say Patrick Mahomes

679
00:35:46,079 --> 00:35:48,800
and Travis Kelce have been on a tear. At least

680
00:35:49,119 --> 00:35:52,119
somebody over there can catch the balls, nineteen of them,

681
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,880
and if you guys like player props, he has now

682
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,760
gone over in seven straight games. I think the Colts

683
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,039
team is one of the those fraudulent teams I was

684
00:36:01,039 --> 00:36:03,800
talking about on Twitter as well, probably fourth or fifth

685
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,960
on the list. And that's because every once in a

686
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,119
while we see this flash of Daniel Jones and who

687
00:36:09,159 --> 00:36:11,719
he was when he played for the Giants.

688
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: Right.

689
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,559
Speaker 2: He threw three interceptions against the Steelers. He got sack

690
00:36:14,599 --> 00:36:17,519
seven times against the Falcons. I don't really want to

691
00:36:17,559 --> 00:36:19,960
take it away from what the Colts have accomplished, but

692
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,760
the stock on Kansas City has fallen too far, and

693
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,400
that is my overall problem here. Our good friend Chris

694
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:30,920
Andrews tweeted Marco yesterday that every single talking head on

695
00:36:31,159 --> 00:36:34,239
ESPN could not figure out why the Colts were not

696
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,960
favored over the Chiefs. Well, VR I will tell you

697
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,119
a little bit of something about power ratings here.

698
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,039
Speaker 1: You guys really want to hear another rant.

699
00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lay the three and a half here

700
00:36:43,039 --> 00:36:46,079
and a bilow spot on Kansas City. It looks so

701
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,800
easy to bet against them for a third straight week

702
00:36:49,119 --> 00:36:51,559
and take the Colts, but I'm not gonna do it.

703
00:36:52,519 --> 00:36:54,480
And that'll do it for the show. Let's hope that

704
00:36:54,599 --> 00:36:57,960
these best bets on my end can turn things around

705
00:36:58,199 --> 00:37:03,760
from Marco myself. Let's get that recap graphic up. We'll

706
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,480
see you guys tuesday for go ahead.

707
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,079
Speaker 4: R hay Cy's two and a half points better on

708
00:37:08,119 --> 00:37:10,719
a neutral are we go at least?

709
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 2: And we all know that good home field advantage and arrowhead.

710
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,000
Those guys are still pretty faithful, even though they may

711
00:37:17,159 --> 00:37:18,840
think the world is crashing around them.

712
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 1: They're gonna be just fine this week. I'll do like

713
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:22,239
the Chiefs.

714
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,079
Speaker 2: And if you guys like bet on a jump in

715
00:37:24,079 --> 00:37:25,719
the comments section, give us a little bit of love.

716
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,800
And if you're looking for that mega show with college football,

717
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,920
it's right here. And of course Marco standalone segment of

718
00:37:32,079 --> 00:37:34,559
the Deli till next week.

719
00:37:34,679 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: Let's bet on it