WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Not five miles an hour riding too his head. He

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<v Speaker 1>hopping down first with the mount Bonius face, and on

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<v Speaker 1>the very next pitch he up and stole second phase

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<v Speaker 1>with gradest be he wasn't born, he had the yes

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<v Speaker 1>uniforn Well.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to episode forty one of the Prospect B Sides Podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>the season finale. I am Nate Handy, joining me as

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<v Speaker 2>always the late rookie because he was late tonight, NAT's man,

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<v Speaker 2>how are you?

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<v Speaker 3>I am fantastic? I can't wait to review my awesome

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<v Speaker 3>B Siders. You know, we've touched on a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>these guys throughout the year, but it's fun to look

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<v Speaker 3>them all on one leaderboard and see the progress throughout

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<v Speaker 3>the year. And while there are definitely some flops, mostly

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<v Speaker 3>on Nate's side, Miner really good. But it's fun to

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<v Speaker 3>just review. And I'm pumped to do a recap episode

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<v Speaker 3>with you, buddy. How are you this fine Monday?

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<v Speaker 2>Good man? The Rockets just won walk off. They gotta

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<v Speaker 2>they gotta win five of their last eleven to not

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<v Speaker 2>lose one hundred. Feeling pretty optimistic about them coming down

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<v Speaker 2>the stretch here, Matt, their biggest bugaboo is relief pitching,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm sure no one's paying attention but their young

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<v Speaker 2>bullpen arms. This last month, the guys who have come

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<v Speaker 2>up have been pretty good, and you know, relief pitching

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<v Speaker 2>is what it is, but at least it's some hope, Matt.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and even I saw Kimley has been pretty good

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<v Speaker 3>at play yeah, close lockdown some games. I think he

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<v Speaker 3>want to match up against me the other day, and

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<v Speaker 3>so I have hate in my heart for him.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, Elverson's pumping a hundred and putting it

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<v Speaker 2>on the black, and Ve's been good, and Hill's getting

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<v Speaker 2>his run, Like, yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing how

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<v Speaker 2>that looks next year. This episode, Matt, we're gonna review

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<v Speaker 2>our B siders from from the year. I was thinking

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<v Speaker 2>maybe we'll talk a little bit about I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>lessons learned from the season, things of that nature. Put

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<v Speaker 2>a bow on twenty twenty four, and continue to mud

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<v Speaker 2>along and get ready for our off season selection shows.

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<v Speaker 2>Does that sound good to you?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>It does imply that we're capable of learning and reflecting,

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<v Speaker 3>And as I have continued to beat the drum, we're

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<v Speaker 3>not really about that here.

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<v Speaker 4>At least on this side of the B side.

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<v Speaker 3>Podcasting table. I'm just about of hyping my calls that

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<v Speaker 3>were good, ignoring my calls that were bad, of which

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<v Speaker 3>there were none, let me remind you and yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>So I don't know if I need.

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<v Speaker 4>To learn anything.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm pretty good at this, Saint let me tell you.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we'll talk about that a little bit. But Matt,

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<v Speaker 2>last episode, that was pretty fun. It's been a minute

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<v Speaker 2>I think since we recorded. Having Connor on was nice

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<v Speaker 2>and I wanted it was really hard for me to

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<v Speaker 2>not talk about and ask more about calling games. I

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<v Speaker 2>feel like if he comes back on, I might just

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<v Speaker 2>ask him a bazillion questions about what it's like calling games.

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<v Speaker 4>Should he's good at it. He thinks about it a lot.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's actually something that we've talked about over the

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<v Speaker 3>years with as he took over and started putting his

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<v Speaker 3>stamp on pitching staffs. One thing that I think that

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<v Speaker 3>I was a little ahead of the kind of major

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<v Speaker 3>league game on just from my own experience, was that

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<v Speaker 3>the baseline for pitchers should be that you throw each

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<v Speaker 3>of your pitches equally. So if you're a three pitch pitcher,

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<v Speaker 3>you should throw each of them about thirty three percent

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<v Speaker 3>of the time.

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<v Speaker 4>And then you.

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<v Speaker 3>Ratchet up and down based on kind of how good

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<v Speaker 3>each of those pitches are. And that's I think something

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<v Speaker 3>that he has incorporated into his pitch mix calling for

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<v Speaker 3>his pitchers. That's actually something they developed they work on

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<v Speaker 3>in the fall, is each pitch gets equal treatment until

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<v Speaker 3>they prove that one is better than the other, or

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<v Speaker 3>that they can't command one, or that one is actually

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<v Speaker 3>really a terrible pitch. And it gets guys comfortable throwing

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<v Speaker 3>pitches in any count in really mixing things up. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that it's a way that hitters still are

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<v Speaker 3>on the back foot because still from a young age,

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<v Speaker 3>everyone's taught to hit the fastball. I know that in

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<v Speaker 3>my career I was way better at hitting the fastball.

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<v Speaker 3>In my four years in college three years in college

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<v Speaker 3>summer ball, I only ever hit home runs against a fastball,

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<v Speaker 3>and yet people still kept throwing me fastballs. And I

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<v Speaker 3>could hit the other pitches for singles and doubles, but

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<v Speaker 3>really getting into one. For some reason about my swinging

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<v Speaker 3>like fastballs was the only thing that could do it,

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<v Speaker 3>and people just still kept throwing them to me. But

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<v Speaker 3>I think I would have been way worse if they

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<v Speaker 3>mixed more. I kind of think that's true of most hitters,

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<v Speaker 3>and that pitchers still throw fastballs too much. You should

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<v Speaker 3>mix more. So that's something that he's incorporated into his

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<v Speaker 3>pitch calling. I take some small amount of credit. Most

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<v Speaker 3>of it is his own intuition and scouting reports and stuff,

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<v Speaker 3>but yeah, that is that's one piece about the pitch

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<v Speaker 3>calling game that I know that he has done quite

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<v Speaker 3>a bit more of of late.

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<v Speaker 2>Nice. Well, that seems prudent to me, starting off throwing

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<v Speaker 2>everything equally and going from there. How have your league's gone?

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<v Speaker 2>How is your year as a whole as a fantasy player.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not over, but it is looking like I'd say

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<v Speaker 3>a B minus here for me, I'm in one final,

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<v Speaker 3>three semi finals, and got bounced in playoffs in four

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<v Speaker 3>other leagues. So like solid, I'd say, if I win

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<v Speaker 3>this thirty team or that I've talked a fair amount,

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<v Speaker 3>that's my favorite league. It's my thirty team daily points league.

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<v Speaker 3>If I win that one, it would make up for

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<v Speaker 3>some of the other sort of middling outcomes that I

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<v Speaker 3>had still in the mix to bring that grade up

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<v Speaker 3>a bit. But I'm not sure I'm sitting well in

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<v Speaker 3>two of the other semi finals, and I'd say one

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<v Speaker 3>of the finals I have a decent shot in. That's

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<v Speaker 3>a points league that I play with in a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of the guys from the Dynasty dugout I got to

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<v Speaker 3>I have a pretty good shot in that final too.

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<v Speaker 2>So in Dynasty, I won no championships this season, which

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<v Speaker 2>is unfortunate, but money wise, one more money than I

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<v Speaker 2>paid to play. So hey, that's good in that sense.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess that's a win. But oh, in all, feeling good,

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<v Speaker 2>not great about my Dynasty performance this season. But I

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to ask you, Matt, a common theme across my

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<v Speaker 2>leagues that I found this year was relief pitching, not

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<v Speaker 2>doing well as a whole, identifying guys making trades to

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<v Speaker 2>try to help me in those categories. And I feel like,

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<v Speaker 2>especially in like thirty teamers or maybe only leagues, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the best teams will have a good lineup, they'll have

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<v Speaker 2>good pitching, and like, the way you can get an

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<v Speaker 2>edge or separate yourself is with your relief pitching. I think,

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<v Speaker 2>And the sort of these teams that I Dynasty teams,

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<v Speaker 2>they have of all kind of been built up. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't like take over a great team or draft

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<v Speaker 2>a great team out the gates. So I've been building

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<v Speaker 2>these teams up over the years with the idea that, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>when I get there, when I need to, I will

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<v Speaker 2>just trade for some relief pitching. And one of those

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<v Speaker 2>trades I made with you this year, and I paid

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<v Speaker 2>way too much. And I know relief pitching is so volatile,

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<v Speaker 2>But admittedly I don't spend a lot of time prospecting

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<v Speaker 2>relief pitching. You did this year. You picked out some names,

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<v Speaker 2>some good ones debuted this year. They probably haven't become

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<v Speaker 2>fantasy winners yet anyways. But I don't know, man, you

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<v Speaker 2>got any advice for someone like me trying to be

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<v Speaker 2>better at relief pitching in dynasty leagues.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a couple of things that I look to.

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<v Speaker 3>One is small sample changes happen really fast with relievers.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I send you a gazillion great pitching starting pitching

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<v Speaker 2>prospects for Craig fucking Kim.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Well, that's not the kind of guy that I'm

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<v Speaker 3>talking about. Like Kimberl is a different type of relief

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<v Speaker 3>asset in it. At the time, he was fairly well

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<v Speaker 3>locked in as a situational He was valuable because of

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<v Speaker 3>the situation that he was in, and he had been

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<v Speaker 3>fine as a pitcher, you know what I mean up to.

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<v Speaker 2>The point that I traded you for him. He was

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<v Speaker 2>like the top scoring relief pitcher in our league at

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<v Speaker 2>that juncture, or.

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<v Speaker 3>Right right, he was, but again that was because he

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<v Speaker 3>was put in situations right he was the locked in

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<v Speaker 3>closer for the team with the most wins in baseball,

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<v Speaker 3>so he had the most opportunities to get saves, and

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<v Speaker 3>often they were like three run leads, which is a

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<v Speaker 3>super easy thing to do, so you don't have to

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<v Speaker 3>pitch that well to convert that kind of a save.

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<v Speaker 3>And he was doing okay, but if you looked at

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<v Speaker 3>his K minus BB, if you looked at some of

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<v Speaker 3>the other situational things like his walk rate had ticked up,

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<v Speaker 3>he was getting fewer with there was signs that all

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<v Speaker 3>was not well, and it kind of he wasn't earning

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<v Speaker 3>all of those points.

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<v Speaker 2>So now, are you on Are you on the air,

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<v Speaker 2>so to speak, right now, admitting that you sold me

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<v Speaker 2>a lemon? That's the kind of trade friend you are.

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<v Speaker 3>It's it's I'm not admitting that I sold you the

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<v Speaker 3>second best reliever in that league. What I'm saying is

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<v Speaker 3>that you've got to understand why he was so valuable,

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<v Speaker 3>and a lot of the reliever game is trying to

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<v Speaker 3>find either the guys that really are locked into their position,

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<v Speaker 3>and Kimberle has been that kind of a guy.

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<v Speaker 4>Like I kind of expected him.

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<v Speaker 3>To just keep holding the closer role even if he

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't great, but because he was going to get opportunities

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<v Speaker 3>he had quote unquote, he's a Hall of Fame closer.

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<v Speaker 3>He's done it for a ton of teams and for

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<v Speaker 3>so many years now, and then he would just keep

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<v Speaker 3>racking up mediocre innings, but he was going to keep

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<v Speaker 3>getting saves, and our league rewards that that's value, right,

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<v Speaker 3>So that is a kind of value that often you

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<v Speaker 3>can get for relatively, you know, not inexpensive, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>worth paying that price if you're a contending team. I

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<v Speaker 3>did the same in our league the show. I bought

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<v Speaker 3>a few relievers because I was a playoff team and

192
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<v Speaker 3>I was like, you know, my relievers for most of

193
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<v Speaker 3>the year were kind of shitty, and so I bought

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<v Speaker 3>a couple that were They weren't kind of kimberrel esk

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of their role, but they were decent back

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<v Speaker 3>end relievers that were going to get me more points

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<v Speaker 3>than the guys that I had. That's the other kind

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<v Speaker 3>of guy. So there's the guys that like are valuable,

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<v Speaker 3>even if they themselves aren't that good of a reliever,

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<v Speaker 3>they are kind of locked into their role and they're

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<v Speaker 3>going to give you value there. I mean a role

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<v Speaker 3>as Chapman has been this in the last couple of years.

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<v Speaker 3>He's having a bit of a resurgence this year, but

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<v Speaker 3>I'd say the two years before that his stuff was down.

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<v Speaker 3>He wasn't getting the whiffs, he was walking guys, but

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<v Speaker 3>people were running him out in the ninth in and

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<v Speaker 3>that was valuable, and you wanted that on your Dynasty team,

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<v Speaker 3>especially as a competitor. You didn't really want to like

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<v Speaker 3>carry that all year, but coming up to the end

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<v Speaker 3>of the season, like, let's roll with our best guys

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<v Speaker 3>and paying a slight premium for those things makes sense.

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<v Speaker 3>It's also one of the reasons why when I talk

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<v Speaker 3>to guys that are trying to rebuild, I tell them

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<v Speaker 3>don't ignore closers or set up guys that might get it,

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<v Speaker 3>because those turn into assets that like in that in

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<v Speaker 3>the WGM League where we made that trade. My team

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<v Speaker 3>fell apart because of some big injuries early on, and

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<v Speaker 3>who did I try.

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<v Speaker 4>And go and get eighth inning guys, Guys that.

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<v Speaker 3>Were I knew that those were going to be some

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<v Speaker 3>of my best trade value assets at the deadline because

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<v Speaker 3>my team wasn't going to need them.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm glad you brought that up because I want I

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to note. I wanted to say, Man, if you're

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<v Speaker 2>a rebuilding team, at least in my experience across my

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<v Speaker 2>five dynasty leagues, to me, that would be the most

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<v Speaker 2>that seems like the most profitable demographic or place to go,

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<v Speaker 2>gobble up that nevers man. And then when the contending

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<v Speaker 2>teams get to the trade deadline, at least if they're

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<v Speaker 2>like us, I kind of pay you wait too much

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<v Speaker 2>for them?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that that an injured starter. So the other one

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<v Speaker 3>that you can often buy for cheap, hold on your roster,

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<v Speaker 3>on your bench because you don't need them for the points.

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<v Speaker 4>And then when they come back healthy, you try and.

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<v Speaker 2>Screw the maybe bat in the lowers. Yep, housing those

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<v Speaker 2>guys get that, I say, yep.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm normally pretty skeptical of small sample size performances like that.

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<v Speaker 3>It shouldn't change your underlying opinion of folks too much.

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<v Speaker 3>I think relievers might be where I change my mind there,

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<v Speaker 3>and I do pay some closer attention, especially kind of

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<v Speaker 3>early in the season, middle of the season to rolling,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, fourteen game k minus bbs, because managers front

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<v Speaker 3>offices even they make the same kind of fallacies that

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<v Speaker 3>we do, and that they like the hot hand, they

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<v Speaker 3>like the performance of the guy, and sometimes that means

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<v Speaker 3>a real uptick in talent level or talent level for

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<v Speaker 3>that season. I think like Tyler Matsek in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 3>one just all of a sudden reverted back to elite

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<v Speaker 3>reliever ways, even though he'd been hurt or bad for

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<v Speaker 3>like the previous five years before that. But pretty quickly

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<v Speaker 3>he was like running thirty five percent strikeout rates and

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't walking to anybody, and you're like, oh, this is

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<v Speaker 3>an elite back end reliever, and he helped win the

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<v Speaker 3>Braves of World Series. Those kind of guys, in small samples,

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<v Speaker 3>they earned the trust of their manager to be in

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<v Speaker 3>those hold situations, those late in inning situations, and then

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<v Speaker 3>maybe set up men to closer promotions down the line.

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<v Speaker 3>And so trying to find a couple of those guys

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<v Speaker 3>early on that are free, like they're going to be free,

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<v Speaker 3>just like the Cade Smiths of the world. Like he

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<v Speaker 3>was one that popped out of nowhere, wasn't on any

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<v Speaker 3>dynasty list, nobody was talking about him.

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<v Speaker 4>And Miah and Jeremiah Strada another one.

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<v Speaker 3>Like there's a ton of these guys every year that

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<v Speaker 3>come out of nowhere and then are useful. But that

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<v Speaker 3>also changes over time.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Sorry, that's a point that I think I may

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<v Speaker 2>have failed, so to speak, or could be much better

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<v Speaker 2>at as being on top, you know, first of the draw,

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<v Speaker 2>getting Jeremiah Strata and those types. I need to pay

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<v Speaker 2>more attention to that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And it's a thing that's a little bit tricky

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<v Speaker 3>because these are super small samples where all of a

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<v Speaker 3>sudden it looks like, oh, a guy maybe found a

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<v Speaker 3>new gear and is the next James Krinchak who came

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<v Speaker 3>out of nowhere a couple of years ago, was striking

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<v Speaker 3>everybody out, was still walking people, but nobody could get

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<v Speaker 3>any hits off of him. And he was an elite

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<v Speaker 3>setup guy for like a year and a half and

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<v Speaker 3>he's been really bad since then, and isn't really rosterble

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<v Speaker 3>in Dynasty anymore.

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<v Speaker 4>I think I have him on one of my teams.

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<v Speaker 3>Like it's that kind of guy that can pop up

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<v Speaker 3>out of nowhere, be really useful for a year and

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<v Speaker 3>a half, and then kind of flame out and be

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<v Speaker 3>not very useful.

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<v Speaker 2>I also watching that guy Matt, like yeah, his anxiety

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00:14:49.159 --> 00:14:52.000
<v Speaker 2>just like went through the TV screen and like got

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<v Speaker 2>inside of me.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. I feel that relievers are tricky, and your format

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<v Speaker 3>really matters a lot too in this league that I'm in,

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<v Speaker 3>the ALCSN that I mentioned just before or maybe before

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<v Speaker 3>we started recording, Like, I have four solid relievers, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's like the most you want in this format. But

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<v Speaker 3>what some of the other really good teams do is

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<v Speaker 3>they really rotate through They keep maybe one or two

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<v Speaker 3>of their reliever spots open, and they just stream relievers

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<v Speaker 3>to whoever might pop up that day, who might like

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<v Speaker 3>pitch that day. And I think that that's something that

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<v Speaker 3>I might have to do this week that I'm kind

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<v Speaker 3>of bummed about, because my relievers have been some of

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<v Speaker 3>the better relievers throughout the course of the year. But

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<v Speaker 3>it's really about the roster spot in this sprint to

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<v Speaker 3>the finish, where I've got Ryan Presley who's been seventh

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00:15:40.360 --> 00:15:43.039
<v Speaker 3>or eighth innning guy for Houston and really effective last

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<v Speaker 3>few years. Jason Foley, who's a closer for Detroit and

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<v Speaker 3>has righted the ship after being a little shaky in

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<v Speaker 3>the middle of the year. David Robertson, who Loki is

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<v Speaker 3>one of the best relievers of all time and that's

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<v Speaker 3>not a hyperbole and is back to having a great

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<v Speaker 3>season with Texas, and then Kyle Finnegan, the Nats closer,

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<v Speaker 3>who all have been good throughout the year.

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<v Speaker 4>They've gotten me to this point.

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<v Speaker 3>But I'm probably being suboptimal and like clinging to my

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00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:09.519
<v Speaker 3>pearls a little bit by keeping all four of them,

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<v Speaker 3>and I should probably cut one of them loose and

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<v Speaker 3>try and stream that spot because in that form, in

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<v Speaker 3>this format, that can get rewarded. So that's the other

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00:16:17.200 --> 00:16:20.039
<v Speaker 3>part of always knowing your format and what's useful a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of formats that we play. You need eight relievers

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<v Speaker 3>to be a really good team to really eke out

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<v Speaker 3>the most points you can get every matchup. You need

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00:16:28.159 --> 00:16:30.360
<v Speaker 3>to be able to mix and match to make sure

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00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:33.000
<v Speaker 3>you've got a reliever who's hot and ready and likely

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00:16:33.039 --> 00:16:35.440
<v Speaker 3>to go each of those days. And that sikes work

328
00:16:35.559 --> 00:16:38.799
<v Speaker 3>like that's a that's some deep diving to do. So,

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00:16:39.480 --> 00:16:42.600
<v Speaker 3>long story, long way of saying, each league is a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit different. Some really reward the role, some really

331
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<v Speaker 3>reward the skill, and some just really reward availability, and

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00:16:51.279 --> 00:16:53.879
<v Speaker 3>each of those things are a little bit different that

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<v Speaker 3>you're looking for.

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<v Speaker 2>Man, I think, you know what might be useful just

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00:16:57.559 --> 00:17:00.320
<v Speaker 2>a relief pitching only podcast.

336
00:17:00.440 --> 00:17:03.279
<v Speaker 3>Should we convert that is really niche?

337
00:17:03.679 --> 00:17:06.720
<v Speaker 2>Should we convert to a relief pitching only podcast.

338
00:17:06.720 --> 00:17:09.680
<v Speaker 3>I know we already have only like ten subscribers.

339
00:17:09.920 --> 00:17:11.640
<v Speaker 4>I just don't know if that's.

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<v Speaker 2>Five of them will hang around maybe, I don't know.

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00:17:16.759 --> 00:17:19.240
<v Speaker 2>I think another air that I made in one league,

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<v Speaker 2>in a Roto league that I've been horrible since I

343
00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:24.200
<v Speaker 2>joined took over a team is I had like I

344
00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:26.079
<v Speaker 2>was good like the first month of the season. So

345
00:17:26.119 --> 00:17:28.079
<v Speaker 2>I was like, all right, this is it, you know,

346
00:17:28.240 --> 00:17:31.119
<v Speaker 2>we finally made it, and I traded off some good

347
00:17:31.160 --> 00:17:34.720
<v Speaker 2>prospects whatever it was for basically a bullpen for a

348
00:17:34.759 --> 00:17:37.319
<v Speaker 2>whole bullpen, and then my team just immediately went to

349
00:17:37.400 --> 00:17:39.759
<v Speaker 2>shit and I'm in last place, and so it was

350
00:17:39.839 --> 00:17:42.599
<v Speaker 2>like getting a little too excited a little too early,

351
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<v Speaker 2>I think. So I'm going to try to be mindful

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<v Speaker 2>of that moving forward as well.

353
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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I got to take the long view in the

354
00:17:49.240 --> 00:17:51.319
<v Speaker 3>rotor leagues for sure, And that's why I'm a big

355
00:17:51.359 --> 00:17:53.640
<v Speaker 3>fan of the spreadsheets for those leaks, just because we

356
00:17:53.680 --> 00:17:55.880
<v Speaker 3>can get caught up and like, oh, all our guys,

357
00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:59.079
<v Speaker 3>you're going to perform our projections. But that just is

358
00:17:59.240 --> 00:18:02.200
<v Speaker 3>never true. You gotta think people are going to revert

359
00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:04.200
<v Speaker 3>to the mean, and you want to take advantage of

360
00:18:04.240 --> 00:18:07.759
<v Speaker 3>the hot starts and bolster where your team is going

361
00:18:07.799 --> 00:18:09.400
<v Speaker 3>to be rather than where it is today.

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00:18:09.799 --> 00:18:13.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, Matt, enough of this relief pitching mumbo jumbo.

363
00:18:16.039 --> 00:18:18.920
<v Speaker 2>Let's get into the good stuff here. Let's let's review

364
00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:22.680
<v Speaker 2>our B siding season. Let's do it well. I mean,

365
00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:27.079
<v Speaker 2>clearly I was superior, but I think you did pretty well, Matt.

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00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:28.240
<v Speaker 2>I think you did pretty.

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<v Speaker 4>Hang On, you can't.

368
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<v Speaker 3>You can't just do that at the outset clearly superior,

369
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<v Speaker 3>like I crush you in this Well.

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<v Speaker 2>Hang on, hang on, Let's just back up here. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>maybe explain a little bit. If someone's listening, who wasn't

372
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<v Speaker 2>listening the year ago, which is probably anyone listening last October.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was we started our B side selection process,

374
00:18:51.400 --> 00:18:53.880
<v Speaker 2>so to speak, reviewed a bunch of guys, watch guys

375
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<v Speaker 2>under the radar, rosterd and zero to two percent of

376
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<v Speaker 2>leagues at the time who we think might one one pitcher,

377
00:19:01.400 --> 00:19:05.519
<v Speaker 2>one hitter from every organization, someone we wanted to throw

378
00:19:05.559 --> 00:19:08.880
<v Speaker 2>out there that might gain popularity this the coming season.

379
00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:12.400
<v Speaker 2>And then we did a little competitive draft to start

380
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<v Speaker 2>things off. I think we each picked nine hitters. Then

381
00:19:15.319 --> 00:19:17.160
<v Speaker 2>we did a picture draft where we each picked five

382
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<v Speaker 2>guys out of our ultimate or whole group of selections.

383
00:19:20.720 --> 00:19:23.480
<v Speaker 2>And Matt, I gotta say, the draft we didn't do very.

384
00:19:23.319 --> 00:19:25.720
<v Speaker 3>Well, dude, No, we really didn't.

385
00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.880
<v Speaker 2>Like so you know, again, sometimes when you're when you're right,

386
00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:30.720
<v Speaker 2>you're wrong. Sometimes when you're wrong, you're right. I think

387
00:19:30.759 --> 00:19:34.039
<v Speaker 2>as a whole, our whole selections were pretty decent. I

388
00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:35.960
<v Speaker 2>think we had some bangers. I think we had some

389
00:19:36.039 --> 00:19:38.839
<v Speaker 2>guys that I'm still very much interested in, even though

390
00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:41.400
<v Speaker 2>the popularity might not be there yet. But our draft

391
00:19:41.519 --> 00:19:43.359
<v Speaker 2>really was kind of poop.

392
00:19:43.559 --> 00:19:43.759
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

393
00:19:44.319 --> 00:19:47.519
<v Speaker 3>I mean, my hitters were pretty good, My pictures were awful.

394
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:52.400
<v Speaker 3>Your hitters were terrible except for one, And.

395
00:19:52.440 --> 00:19:54.920
<v Speaker 2>My whole draft was pretty much terrible except for one.

396
00:19:55.119 --> 00:19:57.480
<v Speaker 2>My hat in the draft was Charles McAdoo. We went

397
00:19:57.559 --> 00:20:00.160
<v Speaker 2>up to ten percent and then nobody had drafted.

398
00:20:00.319 --> 00:20:02.279
<v Speaker 4>Which got a strong co sign for me.

399
00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:04.480
<v Speaker 2>By the way, true which I wanted to note. I

400
00:20:04.519 --> 00:20:06.279
<v Speaker 2>don't know if you saw on the list that I

401
00:20:06.759 --> 00:20:09.119
<v Speaker 2>put together here, but I believe there were five guys

402
00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:12.839
<v Speaker 2>that we both selected the same. Four of them went off,

403
00:20:13.039 --> 00:20:16.039
<v Speaker 2>one of them did not yet anyway, So if you're listening,

404
00:20:16.440 --> 00:20:19.079
<v Speaker 2>we do this again this offseason. If Matt and I

405
00:20:19.079 --> 00:20:21.640
<v Speaker 2>are both on a guy, there's a good chance his

406
00:20:21.640 --> 00:20:24.480
<v Speaker 2>history says there's a good chance that that might be

407
00:20:24.680 --> 00:20:25.680
<v Speaker 2>a real banger.

408
00:20:25.880 --> 00:20:29.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, are n four really really speaks strongly to that.

409
00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:38.039
<v Speaker 2>But man, I will say about my draft, though there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,

410
00:20:38.319 --> 00:20:41.200
<v Speaker 2>there's still seven guys that I picked that I still

411
00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:44.160
<v Speaker 2>was happy with their season. It wasn't quite the big

412
00:20:44.200 --> 00:20:48.599
<v Speaker 2>breakout explosion that obviously I was trying to predict or

413
00:20:48.599 --> 00:20:51.119
<v Speaker 2>trying to get to beat you in this competition. But

414
00:20:51.400 --> 00:20:54.279
<v Speaker 2>there were some, you know, poopy picks, But as a whole,

415
00:20:54.519 --> 00:20:57.799
<v Speaker 2>I think it was okay. Maybe it's just maybe next

416
00:20:57.839 --> 00:21:01.359
<v Speaker 2>year is their year, and then you your best pick,

417
00:21:01.559 --> 00:21:05.240
<v Speaker 2>just gaining percentage points wise, your best pick was Cjkafis

418
00:21:05.359 --> 00:21:08.799
<v Speaker 2>and Drake Baldwin, who you you got lucky on because

419
00:21:08.799 --> 00:21:11.359
<v Speaker 2>you just drafted him before I did. I was gonna

420
00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:12.359
<v Speaker 2>draft Baldwin too.

421
00:21:13.200 --> 00:21:17.200
<v Speaker 4>You never said that this is the pick.

422
00:21:17.279 --> 00:21:19.359
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna find the clip and I'm gonna edit and

423
00:21:19.400 --> 00:21:21.559
<v Speaker 2>put it in here. Matt, I probably won't do that

424
00:21:21.640 --> 00:21:26.279
<v Speaker 2>because that'll take But then Durban is up to five percent.

425
00:21:26.759 --> 00:21:29.400
<v Speaker 2>Troy Johnson, he's at four percent right now. But like,

426
00:21:29.599 --> 00:21:32.039
<v Speaker 2>wasn't he like at four percent when you picked him?

427
00:21:32.119 --> 00:21:34.000
<v Speaker 2>So I don't know about that one. I wouldn't say

428
00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:34.359
<v Speaker 2>that that was.

429
00:21:34.319 --> 00:21:35.880
<v Speaker 4>I remember he was like he was a two or

430
00:21:35.920 --> 00:21:36.720
<v Speaker 4>three percenter guy.

431
00:21:36.759 --> 00:21:39.000
<v Speaker 2>I think I wouldn't say that was a successful pick,

432
00:21:39.039 --> 00:21:39.400
<v Speaker 2>would you.

433
00:21:39.599 --> 00:21:41.519
<v Speaker 4>No, I agree, yeah, I think it was at this point.

434
00:21:41.640 --> 00:21:44.319
<v Speaker 3>And and and he he like one of the guys

435
00:21:44.319 --> 00:21:47.440
<v Speaker 3>that's farther down the list. He and Blaine krim they

436
00:21:47.480 --> 00:21:50.960
<v Speaker 3>both just were bad to start the year. When if

437
00:21:51.000 --> 00:21:54.000
<v Speaker 3>they if they had flipped their seasons and had their

438
00:21:54.119 --> 00:21:56.599
<v Speaker 3>second halfs in the first half, I think both would

439
00:21:56.599 --> 00:21:58.759
<v Speaker 3>be in the bigs and both would have shot up.

440
00:21:58.839 --> 00:22:01.279
<v Speaker 3>I mean Blaine Kremis, so he's down there at one percent,

441
00:22:01.319 --> 00:22:03.000
<v Speaker 3>which is what I think he was when I picked him,

442
00:22:03.119 --> 00:22:05.880
<v Speaker 3>but he just got written up in Baseball America as

443
00:22:06.000 --> 00:22:09.039
<v Speaker 3>like Eli Ben Parratt, who who I think I've shouted

444
00:22:09.079 --> 00:22:11.440
<v Speaker 3>on this pod before. He does great work. But he

445
00:22:11.599 --> 00:22:13.559
<v Speaker 3>was like, this is one of my favorite guys, and

446
00:22:13.599 --> 00:22:16.480
<v Speaker 3>I'm like, yes, Eli, Yes, that's exactly what I said

447
00:22:16.599 --> 00:22:19.519
<v Speaker 3>last year and he ended up having a really good

448
00:22:19.599 --> 00:22:21.920
<v Speaker 3>year overall, just never got the shout at the show

449
00:22:21.920 --> 00:22:23.920
<v Speaker 3>that I thought he was going to get. Yeah, And

450
00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:26.200
<v Speaker 3>that's kind of a commonality with a bunch of my

451
00:22:26.240 --> 00:22:28.720
<v Speaker 3>picks that didn't really pan out. Like I picked some

452
00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.680
<v Speaker 3>quad A type guys that I thought had opportunity in

453
00:22:31.680 --> 00:22:33.680
<v Speaker 3>front of them and we're going to get some run

454
00:22:33.839 --> 00:22:36.960
<v Speaker 3>and just never did, you know. And so that that's

455
00:22:37.319 --> 00:22:40.480
<v Speaker 3>like Terso or Elys is like that, Troy Johnson's like that,

456
00:22:40.599 --> 00:22:43.240
<v Speaker 3>Blaine Cram, Matt Crune, You're in Fernardo.

457
00:22:43.559 --> 00:22:47.359
<v Speaker 2>I want to say, though, so just counting every percentage,

458
00:22:47.839 --> 00:22:52.160
<v Speaker 2>just percentage points, your draft cumulative ownership is forty six

459
00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:55.119
<v Speaker 2>percent right now, right just counting Does that make sense?

460
00:22:55.480 --> 00:22:57.759
<v Speaker 2>Just calling it the point you got forty six points

461
00:22:57.880 --> 00:23:01.200
<v Speaker 2>whereas my drafts was twenty two points. It might be different,

462
00:23:01.240 --> 00:23:03.599
<v Speaker 2>and we can't do it because I don't have the

463
00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:07.200
<v Speaker 2>percentages of when you selected them. If you did a difference,

464
00:23:07.559 --> 00:23:12.599
<v Speaker 2>you know, subtracted last year's per roster rate from this year's.

465
00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:15.000
<v Speaker 2>I have a feeling that your forty six percent won't

466
00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:17.079
<v Speaker 2>be quite as high because I think, yeah.

467
00:23:16.920 --> 00:23:17.240
<v Speaker 4>It would.

468
00:23:17.359 --> 00:23:21.160
<v Speaker 3>It would definitely knock a few guys who they john

469
00:23:21.200 --> 00:23:25.720
<v Speaker 3>said Johnson was like a three percent, maybe like zero one.

470
00:23:25.559 --> 00:23:30.160
<v Speaker 2>Now, so still officially you are the draft champion of

471
00:23:30.160 --> 00:23:31.319
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four.

472
00:23:31.920 --> 00:23:32.640
<v Speaker 4>I give it again.

473
00:23:32.680 --> 00:23:35.839
<v Speaker 3>That's forty six points to twenty two points to Nate.

474
00:23:36.200 --> 00:23:38.519
<v Speaker 3>That's like more than double I think.

475
00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:42.240
<v Speaker 2>So just trying to tell you I would also, I mean,

476
00:23:42.720 --> 00:23:46.079
<v Speaker 2>we'd be remissed if I didn't highlight that I am.

477
00:23:47.119 --> 00:23:50.440
<v Speaker 2>I am mentoring you, I'm grooming you in in the

478
00:23:50.480 --> 00:23:52.759
<v Speaker 2>B side game. Here, Matt and I set up a

479
00:23:52.799 --> 00:23:56.400
<v Speaker 2>situation so that you could succeed and gain that confidence

480
00:23:56.440 --> 00:23:58.039
<v Speaker 2>that you needed at the start of the year.

481
00:23:58.160 --> 00:24:01.880
<v Speaker 3>You know, so you got to yourself to soothe the

482
00:24:01.880 --> 00:24:04.920
<v Speaker 3>pains of the big old fat el you're taking eight.

483
00:24:05.160 --> 00:24:06.599
<v Speaker 3>I know you have to do this in a lot

484
00:24:06.599 --> 00:24:11.359
<v Speaker 3>of your dynasty leagues. So this comes to no surprise

485
00:24:11.480 --> 00:24:14.519
<v Speaker 3>to me that you're trying to rationalize this, but it's

486
00:24:14.920 --> 00:24:16.720
<v Speaker 3>ass whipping that the rookie put on you.

487
00:24:17.640 --> 00:24:21.119
<v Speaker 2>All right, all right, so congrats Matt, you won the draft.

488
00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:24.559
<v Speaker 2>But now let's look at the whole picture here. For

489
00:24:24.599 --> 00:24:27.559
<v Speaker 2>some reason, you had a few more official B side

490
00:24:27.599 --> 00:24:30.680
<v Speaker 2>selections than me. I think maybe because you picked a

491
00:24:30.720 --> 00:24:33.200
<v Speaker 2>couple got I think the astros. You picked like two

492
00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:35.640
<v Speaker 2>pictures or something, whatever it is, And then there were

493
00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:38.640
<v Speaker 2>a few that we both selected the same player. Right,

494
00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:44.240
<v Speaker 2>But adding that altogether, your fifty eight selections to my

495
00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:48.519
<v Speaker 2>fifty six selections, you would be at one hundred and

496
00:24:48.519 --> 00:24:51.000
<v Speaker 2>sixty percentage points. I would be at one hundred and

497
00:24:51.079 --> 00:24:52.440
<v Speaker 2>twenty nine percentage.

498
00:24:52.480 --> 00:24:54.839
<v Speaker 3>What is that? Is that more for me? Again?

499
00:24:55.319 --> 00:24:58.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but let's just look at the top of these lists.

500
00:24:59.039 --> 00:25:02.319
<v Speaker 2>Though you're like, you know, in gymnastics, you have a

501
00:25:02.960 --> 00:25:06.960
<v Speaker 2>level of difficulty components to your score, right, I mean,

502
00:25:07.039 --> 00:25:09.720
<v Speaker 2>it's not if I do a bunch of summersaults. If

503
00:25:09.759 --> 00:25:12.599
<v Speaker 2>I do a bunch of summersaults, but I do them perfectly,

504
00:25:12.680 --> 00:25:16.599
<v Speaker 2>Oh perfect ten summersaults. Congratulations. But you know, if I'm

505
00:25:16.880 --> 00:25:20.119
<v Speaker 2>I don't know what's called double triple axle loop d

506
00:25:20.200 --> 00:25:24.119
<v Speaker 2>loops flying and fIF twenty feet in the air, but

507
00:25:24.200 --> 00:25:26.240
<v Speaker 2>I get like an eight, I don't do it perfectly

508
00:25:26.359 --> 00:25:28.799
<v Speaker 2>like what was better? You know, there's a component of

509
00:25:28.839 --> 00:25:29.279
<v Speaker 2>that here.

510
00:25:29.359 --> 00:25:32.640
<v Speaker 3>I think, in what way we have the same rosters

511
00:25:32.680 --> 00:25:33.400
<v Speaker 3>to choose for out?

512
00:25:33.480 --> 00:25:36.880
<v Speaker 2>Okay, in this way, in this way, let's look top

513
00:25:36.920 --> 00:25:39.839
<v Speaker 2>of our list right now, Matt. Your b side selection

514
00:25:40.119 --> 00:25:42.920
<v Speaker 2>that is rostered in the most percentage of fan tracks

515
00:25:43.000 --> 00:25:47.440
<v Speaker 2>leagues today is Brent Herder at twenty three percent, and

516
00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:52.039
<v Speaker 2>going up mine is Logan Evans who is at twenty percent.

517
00:25:52.319 --> 00:25:55.720
<v Speaker 2>Now rewind a year. What was brand Herder doing? What

518
00:25:55.799 --> 00:25:58.480
<v Speaker 2>a Brand Herder do in twenty twenty three, chopping up

519
00:25:58.519 --> 00:26:01.319
<v Speaker 2>double AM, chopping up double A. What was Logan Evans

520
00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:06.200
<v Speaker 2>doing twenty twenty three debuting? He was in college and

521
00:26:06.240 --> 00:26:08.000
<v Speaker 2>got a couple starts at the end of the year.

522
00:26:08.200 --> 00:26:08.519
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

523
00:26:08.680 --> 00:26:11.799
<v Speaker 2>Right, So that's kind of how I'm trying to help

524
00:26:11.839 --> 00:26:14.640
<v Speaker 2>myself feel better here, Matt. Okay, so just appease me

525
00:26:14.680 --> 00:26:15.200
<v Speaker 2>a little bit.

526
00:26:15.440 --> 00:26:18.519
<v Speaker 3>Well, I've said this for the whole year.

527
00:26:18.799 --> 00:26:20.319
<v Speaker 4>You really do.

528
00:26:20.240 --> 00:26:23.039
<v Speaker 3>Have a knack for looking at just a couple of

529
00:26:23.039 --> 00:26:25.799
<v Speaker 3>starts of a guy and seeing something there. And I

530
00:26:25.799 --> 00:26:29.880
<v Speaker 3>think this bears out in the biggest hits for your pictures,

531
00:26:30.000 --> 00:26:32.880
<v Speaker 3>especially you know, you've got Logan Evans at twenty percent,

532
00:26:33.079 --> 00:26:36.720
<v Speaker 3>Samuel Aldegary at eighteen percent, Jaden Hamm at twelve percent,

533
00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:39.079
<v Speaker 3>Gary gil Hill that I still can't believe that's the

534
00:26:39.119 --> 00:26:40.640
<v Speaker 3>same at ten percent.

535
00:26:40.880 --> 00:26:42.240
<v Speaker 4>Those are all.

536
00:26:42.279 --> 00:26:45.119
<v Speaker 3>All guys that we had had not a big look at,

537
00:26:45.359 --> 00:26:47.960
<v Speaker 3>not a big sample, and you had said, hey, there's

538
00:26:47.960 --> 00:26:49.680
<v Speaker 3>something pretty interesting here.

539
00:26:49.960 --> 00:26:52.680
<v Speaker 4>Now, if you were really good at this, you would have.

540
00:26:52.759 --> 00:26:58.960
<v Speaker 3>Grafted those pictures instead of Zach Germing, Rosario, Jared Andy,

541
00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:03.240
<v Speaker 3>DJ McCary Party and Hamington Mendez. You know, I think

542
00:27:03.359 --> 00:27:06.119
<v Speaker 3>you might have crushed me in the traffic, actually had

543
00:27:06.119 --> 00:27:07.200
<v Speaker 3>some conviction.

544
00:27:07.079 --> 00:27:10.799
<v Speaker 2>That is right, just that, just like and thank you

545
00:27:10.880 --> 00:27:12.599
<v Speaker 2>for going there, because that is kind of what I

546
00:27:12.640 --> 00:27:15.359
<v Speaker 2>wanted to get to. And and I foreshadowed this at

547
00:27:15.359 --> 00:27:18.799
<v Speaker 2>the time, Matt, I was multiple times I said, we're

548
00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:21.440
<v Speaker 2>gonna pick some good ones here. There's gonna be some bangers.

549
00:27:21.480 --> 00:27:24.400
<v Speaker 2>But my money is on me ultimately picking the wrong

550
00:27:24.440 --> 00:27:28.440
<v Speaker 2>ones when when it comes to the draft and who

551
00:27:28.480 --> 00:27:31.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to prioritize prioritize is probably not going to

552
00:27:31.720 --> 00:27:33.839
<v Speaker 2>be the real bangers. And that's how this b siding

553
00:27:33.880 --> 00:27:36.799
<v Speaker 2>thing has has really gone at for the last you know,

554
00:27:36.920 --> 00:27:39.000
<v Speaker 2>four years or whatever it is, I've been trying to

555
00:27:39.039 --> 00:27:41.279
<v Speaker 2>do this sort of thing. So it's not a dud

556
00:27:41.400 --> 00:27:45.359
<v Speaker 2>and it's not victory lapping here. I am not like

557
00:27:45.799 --> 00:27:48.200
<v Speaker 2>saying I'm awesome, and I think I in a way,

558
00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:50.519
<v Speaker 2>I actually kind of really suck at this. I find

559
00:27:50.559 --> 00:27:53.319
<v Speaker 2>some find some guys, but don't prioritize them correctly.

560
00:27:53.799 --> 00:27:57.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's tricky, like I picked a bunch of

561
00:27:57.240 --> 00:28:02.039
<v Speaker 3>these guys in the draft, and then I was in

562
00:28:02.079 --> 00:28:04.400
<v Speaker 3>a Dynasty startup and tried to grab a bunch of

563
00:28:04.400 --> 00:28:07.160
<v Speaker 3>them late. But I didn't grab all of these guys, like,

564
00:28:07.200 --> 00:28:09.480
<v Speaker 3>I didn't grab all these ones that I thought were

565
00:28:09.680 --> 00:28:12.279
<v Speaker 3>the better ones. It was definitely more of a mix.

566
00:28:12.359 --> 00:28:14.240
<v Speaker 3>And I think I only ended up with like one

567
00:28:14.279 --> 00:28:17.839
<v Speaker 3>share Drake Baldwin, whom I loved last year and and

568
00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:20.240
<v Speaker 3>a lot of people liked more than most other people

569
00:28:20.559 --> 00:28:22.480
<v Speaker 3>that were in Dynasty Baseball, But I'm still only ended

570
00:28:22.559 --> 00:28:23.319
<v Speaker 3>up with one share.

571
00:28:23.680 --> 00:28:26.599
<v Speaker 2>And a lot of that too, is just opportunity. You

572
00:28:26.599 --> 00:28:28.759
<v Speaker 2>know what's happening at the draft table at the time,

573
00:28:29.000 --> 00:28:31.720
<v Speaker 2>or on the waiver wire with your roster and stuff

574
00:28:31.759 --> 00:28:33.960
<v Speaker 2>like that too. But let's look at your big your

575
00:28:33.960 --> 00:28:36.720
<v Speaker 2>big hits, a Herder like we mentioned, who, by the way,

576
00:28:37.079 --> 00:28:42.279
<v Speaker 2>has been awesome. He has been He's been killing it.

577
00:28:42.759 --> 00:28:45.519
<v Speaker 4>What how many if it's like six or seven?

578
00:28:45.559 --> 00:28:47.759
<v Speaker 3>I think if I get a little bit of time,

579
00:28:47.799 --> 00:28:50.720
<v Speaker 3>this last couple of weeks has been pretty crazy on

580
00:28:50.759 --> 00:28:53.079
<v Speaker 3>the home and work front here, But if I get

581
00:28:53.240 --> 00:28:55.319
<v Speaker 3>a little bit of time, I'm actually gonna I've got

582
00:28:55.400 --> 00:28:58.759
<v Speaker 3>a thesis to write up. Because our buddy Chris Clegg

583
00:28:58.839 --> 00:29:02.039
<v Speaker 3>keeps pooh pooing Brant Herder because he quote unquote has

584
00:29:02.039 --> 00:29:05.319
<v Speaker 3>a ninety one mile an hour fastball, and it's driving

585
00:29:05.319 --> 00:29:08.960
<v Speaker 3>me a little battie because I think that brand Herder

586
00:29:09.240 --> 00:29:14.240
<v Speaker 3>is showing us the some of the gaps in sort

587
00:29:14.240 --> 00:29:18.079
<v Speaker 3>of your stuff plus analyses or your kind of fastball

588
00:29:18.200 --> 00:29:22.200
<v Speaker 3>velocity only evaluations. And I actually think that there's a

589
00:29:22.400 --> 00:29:26.720
<v Speaker 3>really really interesting case study here. So I've done some

590
00:29:26.799 --> 00:29:29.160
<v Speaker 3>work on it. I've got a rough outline of a

591
00:29:29.240 --> 00:29:31.200
<v Speaker 3>draft I just need to get in if if I

592
00:29:31.240 --> 00:29:32.759
<v Speaker 3>want to do it right. I'm trying to like take

593
00:29:32.839 --> 00:29:35.359
<v Speaker 3>some screen caps and stuff and all that shit takes

594
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:37.880
<v Speaker 3>me too much time, So yeah, I need I need

595
00:29:37.920 --> 00:29:40.799
<v Speaker 3>to do that. But anyway, let's let's shelve him. But

596
00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:43.279
<v Speaker 3>I'm I'm loving what I'm saying that a Herder.

597
00:29:43.640 --> 00:29:48.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, your hits there. Herder twenty three percent, Cafus sixteen percent,

598
00:29:48.359 --> 00:29:52.119
<v Speaker 2>Chandler Simpson at fourteen percent, Logan Henderson at twelve percent,

599
00:29:52.200 --> 00:29:55.559
<v Speaker 2>Trick Baldwin at ten percent, Macdoo we both chose at

600
00:29:55.599 --> 00:29:58.880
<v Speaker 2>ten percent. Well, we both chose Baldwin too, Oh Brooks.

601
00:29:58.880 --> 00:30:01.720
<v Speaker 2>Baldwin is an nine percent. We both chose him.

602
00:30:03.359 --> 00:30:05.799
<v Speaker 3>Durban would be a fair bit higher, but he missed

603
00:30:05.839 --> 00:30:08.119
<v Speaker 3>so much time and ended up not getting a shot.

604
00:30:08.240 --> 00:30:10.799
<v Speaker 2>And Neely, you like had a couple of relievers who

605
00:30:10.839 --> 00:30:13.400
<v Speaker 2>have made like the bigs that were, you know, good calls.

606
00:30:13.440 --> 00:30:16.119
<v Speaker 2>I think you've gained that well. And relief pictures are

607
00:30:16.160 --> 00:30:19.119
<v Speaker 2>not really a part of my process, not that, and

608
00:30:19.200 --> 00:30:21.359
<v Speaker 2>I'm I'm glad that you do it. So yeah, So

609
00:30:21.799 --> 00:30:24.039
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you've got the tippy top fairly

610
00:30:24.119 --> 00:30:26.960
<v Speaker 2>even points wise, you just kind of nickeled and diying

611
00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:29.680
<v Speaker 2>me a little bit more throughout the list here. So

612
00:30:29.799 --> 00:30:31.519
<v Speaker 2>I think we call that a tie. You know, it

613
00:30:31.559 --> 00:30:31.759
<v Speaker 2>was a.

614
00:30:31.720 --> 00:30:34.880
<v Speaker 3>Tie again, one one hundred and sixty points to one

615
00:30:35.039 --> 00:30:38.400
<v Speaker 3>hundred and twenty nine points. I don't know, I don't

616
00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:41.559
<v Speaker 3>know if that's a tie in in my estimation, who.

617
00:30:41.400 --> 00:30:44.039
<v Speaker 2>Would you rather have in a trade? Logan Evans, Elder,

618
00:30:44.039 --> 00:30:49.240
<v Speaker 2>Garry Ham, Gary gil Hill for Herder Capus Simpson, Logan Henderson,

619
00:30:49.279 --> 00:30:50.480
<v Speaker 2>Who would you take? What's that?

620
00:30:50.759 --> 00:30:51.240
<v Speaker 3>My four?

621
00:30:51.359 --> 00:30:51.920
<v Speaker 4>No question?

622
00:30:52.480 --> 00:30:55.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think damn it. I think I think I'm

623
00:30:55.240 --> 00:30:58.759
<v Speaker 2>with you all right. Well, Matt, I have been heavy

624
00:30:59.160 --> 00:31:01.880
<v Speaker 2>at it already, watching a lot of guys. I'm gonna

625
00:31:01.880 --> 00:31:03.759
<v Speaker 2>get you. I'm gonna get you next year, you got

626
00:31:03.759 --> 00:31:05.079
<v Speaker 2>the sophomore slump is coming.

627
00:31:05.279 --> 00:31:07.839
<v Speaker 3>In reviewing this, this is my first time looking at

628
00:31:07.839 --> 00:31:10.839
<v Speaker 3>the percentages since we've checked in every so often.

629
00:31:11.039 --> 00:31:14.319
<v Speaker 2>I don't agree with the percentages either, Like as far

630
00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:16.960
<v Speaker 2>as how I would value them. For a lot of

631
00:31:17.000 --> 00:31:18.319
<v Speaker 2>these guys, I don't know how.

632
00:31:18.240 --> 00:31:19.920
<v Speaker 3>You Yeah, I agree, and I think I think a

633
00:31:19.960 --> 00:31:23.240
<v Speaker 3>bunch of them are still arrow up guys, like on

634
00:31:23.319 --> 00:31:24.920
<v Speaker 3>both of us. For both of us, I think we've

635
00:31:24.920 --> 00:31:27.039
<v Speaker 3>got a few guys that are filling that zero to

636
00:31:27.079 --> 00:31:31.400
<v Speaker 3>one percent range that give them another year continued performance,

637
00:31:31.400 --> 00:31:33.279
<v Speaker 3>and we're going to see them up in the double

638
00:31:33.319 --> 00:31:37.400
<v Speaker 3>digits relatively soon. So this certainly isn't over. It's just

639
00:31:37.400 --> 00:31:40.759
<v Speaker 3>an interesting year. And again I definitely picked guys that

640
00:31:40.839 --> 00:31:43.559
<v Speaker 3>I thought were gonna maybe be a little closer to

641
00:31:43.599 --> 00:31:46.079
<v Speaker 3>getting picked up in more dynasty leagues, like there were

642
00:31:46.079 --> 00:31:49.799
<v Speaker 3>more upper minors guys, so that I'm also not surprised

643
00:31:49.799 --> 00:31:52.000
<v Speaker 3>that's maybe what you're getting at with the higher degree

644
00:31:52.000 --> 00:31:55.839
<v Speaker 3>of difficulty piece. But well, one thing we've done throughout

645
00:31:55.839 --> 00:31:57.640
<v Speaker 3>the year, I think is trying to come back and

646
00:31:57.680 --> 00:32:00.519
<v Speaker 3>revisit some of these guys to see who was doing

647
00:32:00.559 --> 00:32:03.519
<v Speaker 3>well but also who was doing poorly and trying he's

648
00:32:03.559 --> 00:32:04.720
<v Speaker 3>out is this signal?

649
00:32:04.839 --> 00:32:05.519
<v Speaker 4>Is this noise?

650
00:32:05.680 --> 00:32:09.160
<v Speaker 3>Because slumps happen, hot streaks happened. I think we've tried

651
00:32:09.200 --> 00:32:12.119
<v Speaker 3>and done a relatively good job of being sober in

652
00:32:12.240 --> 00:32:14.640
<v Speaker 3>our take. You know, I joke around about patting ourselves

653
00:32:14.640 --> 00:32:17.279
<v Speaker 3>on the back, but like I had talked up Joey

654
00:32:17.279 --> 00:32:19.559
<v Speaker 3>Lo Perfito last year and then I was like, as

655
00:32:19.599 --> 00:32:21.519
<v Speaker 3>he got off to this electric start, I was like,

656
00:32:21.519 --> 00:32:23.359
<v Speaker 3>he's still the same guy who's going to punch out

657
00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:25.279
<v Speaker 3>thirty plus percent of the time in the show, and

658
00:32:25.319 --> 00:32:27.240
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure he's got the pop to make it stick.

659
00:32:27.359 --> 00:32:29.359
<v Speaker 3>Like this is fun, but I don't know if this

660
00:32:29.519 --> 00:32:32.039
<v Speaker 3>is real. And we've talked about that with some guys

661
00:32:32.079 --> 00:32:35.200
<v Speaker 3>like Brooks Baldwin too, like he ran a four hundred

662
00:32:35.200 --> 00:32:37.440
<v Speaker 3>babbit for most of the year. That's just not a

663
00:32:37.480 --> 00:32:41.039
<v Speaker 3>sustainable thing. And he had an incredible season. His roster

664
00:32:41.079 --> 00:32:43.640
<v Speaker 3>percentage shot up. He's in the bigs, has had a

665
00:32:43.720 --> 00:32:46.000
<v Speaker 3>nice cup of coffee. Is that going to keep going?

666
00:32:46.200 --> 00:32:46.640
<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

667
00:32:46.839 --> 00:32:49.640
<v Speaker 3>He's got the position flexibility. He's done some good things,

668
00:32:49.680 --> 00:32:52.279
<v Speaker 3>but I think we've done a reasonable job trying to

669
00:32:52.319 --> 00:32:55.559
<v Speaker 3>provide that additional context. And even as we revisited some

670
00:32:55.640 --> 00:32:58.240
<v Speaker 3>guys that kind of started off slowly, Blaine Krim was

671
00:32:58.279 --> 00:33:01.039
<v Speaker 3>one of them that I noted. With nathanie Low's injury

672
00:33:01.079 --> 00:33:04.039
<v Speaker 3>early in the year, Krim started out super slowly and

673
00:33:04.079 --> 00:33:06.799
<v Speaker 3>then has ended up the exact same guy that he's

674
00:33:06.839 --> 00:33:09.759
<v Speaker 3>been for the last five years. But because he missed

675
00:33:09.799 --> 00:33:13.079
<v Speaker 3>timed that run, he ended up not getting the shot,

676
00:33:13.119 --> 00:33:16.599
<v Speaker 3>and they signed the husk of Jared Walsh for a

677
00:33:16.680 --> 00:33:19.319
<v Speaker 3>month or something to fill in. So kind of looking

678
00:33:19.400 --> 00:33:23.200
<v Speaker 3>back on your guys, Nate a little bit of retrospective, like,

679
00:33:23.240 --> 00:33:25.920
<v Speaker 3>are there guys that you were like, Oh, I definitely

680
00:33:25.960 --> 00:33:28.680
<v Speaker 3>wouldn't have gotten I wouldn't have picked him. I would

681
00:33:28.720 --> 00:33:31.920
<v Speaker 3>I like regret this choice, I regret the process, or

682
00:33:32.079 --> 00:33:34.400
<v Speaker 3>I really didn't see this outcome coming. Are there a

683
00:33:34.400 --> 00:33:36.440
<v Speaker 3>couple guys in here that you look at and you're

684
00:33:36.480 --> 00:33:38.400
<v Speaker 3>just like, Wow, that was a big mess.

685
00:33:38.839 --> 00:33:40.880
<v Speaker 2>I think for the most part the guys that were

686
00:33:41.119 --> 00:33:43.880
<v Speaker 2>just really duds. I think for the majority of them,

687
00:33:44.000 --> 00:33:46.799
<v Speaker 2>like we kind of already at the time. That's the

688
00:33:46.880 --> 00:33:49.240
<v Speaker 2>area of the list where it's like, yeah, at the time,

689
00:33:49.319 --> 00:33:51.799
<v Speaker 2>I was like, I don't really know if I liked

690
00:33:51.799 --> 00:33:54.319
<v Speaker 2>this guy that much, but given all my options, this

691
00:33:54.359 --> 00:33:56.359
<v Speaker 2>is who I'm going with. I think that's like, really

692
00:33:56.400 --> 00:33:59.279
<v Speaker 2>the poor part of this list is that is mostly that.

693
00:33:59.480 --> 00:34:02.200
<v Speaker 2>But then of course there are some guys that I

694
00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:05.640
<v Speaker 2>was much much more hopeful and convinced that they're going

695
00:34:05.720 --> 00:34:08.320
<v Speaker 2>to have some good seasons and did not. Ben Ross

696
00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:11.280
<v Speaker 2>might be the biggest disappointment for me. And yet I

697
00:34:11.400 --> 00:34:14.480
<v Speaker 2>say that and I don't. I don't think there isn't

698
00:34:14.519 --> 00:34:16.960
<v Speaker 2>really anything i'd redo in my process. I mean, my

699
00:34:17.039 --> 00:34:19.960
<v Speaker 2>process is pretty pretty basic. I think find out all

700
00:34:19.960 --> 00:34:22.559
<v Speaker 2>the guys that I can watch or at least dig on,

701
00:34:22.840 --> 00:34:25.760
<v Speaker 2>statistically impair some of that or whittle it down that way,

702
00:34:25.800 --> 00:34:27.920
<v Speaker 2>and then watch them side by side. Who do you

703
00:34:27.960 --> 00:34:30.159
<v Speaker 2>think is the best you know? Who do you want

704
00:34:30.199 --> 00:34:32.639
<v Speaker 2>to put a little fun bet On here, So I mean,

705
00:34:32.639 --> 00:34:35.800
<v Speaker 2>I wouldn't change that. That being said, I'm not totally

706
00:34:35.840 --> 00:34:38.519
<v Speaker 2>sold that Ben Ross can't be a good baseball player,

707
00:34:38.719 --> 00:34:41.840
<v Speaker 2>can't be a good hitter. Small sample sizes giveth and

708
00:34:41.880 --> 00:34:44.840
<v Speaker 2>taketh away. I think, Matt, like, some of my biggest,

709
00:34:44.920 --> 00:34:48.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, successes this year with this stuff were guys

710
00:34:48.000 --> 00:34:52.760
<v Speaker 2>from very small sample sizes. Some of them, like Trevor Werner, weren't.

711
00:34:52.960 --> 00:34:54.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean then we weren't the only ones who were

712
00:34:55.000 --> 00:34:58.760
<v Speaker 2>like thinking Werner's might be more real than fake, and

713
00:34:58.800 --> 00:35:01.599
<v Speaker 2>it turned out to be that's good, not the real

714
00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:04.639
<v Speaker 2>Trevor Werner. Right, So I don't know for me, Maybe

715
00:35:04.880 --> 00:35:08.960
<v Speaker 2>maybe I'm just not smart enough to realize, uh, you know,

716
00:35:09.000 --> 00:35:12.000
<v Speaker 2>we're there the crappy parts of those processes. But I

717
00:35:12.000 --> 00:35:14.119
<v Speaker 2>think a lot of it is just is baseball and

718
00:35:14.880 --> 00:35:19.519
<v Speaker 2>human beings and countless variables. Maybe you know, it's all

719
00:35:19.559 --> 00:35:22.400
<v Speaker 2>these things are about reasons, right, I thought these guys

720
00:35:22.400 --> 00:35:24.480
<v Speaker 2>had the best reason for me to pick them out

721
00:35:24.760 --> 00:35:27.000
<v Speaker 2>of what was given. So maybe think about some of

722
00:35:27.039 --> 00:35:30.360
<v Speaker 2>those more. I mean, with hitters, I think it's just hard.

723
00:35:30.639 --> 00:35:32.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if I could line them up and watch

724
00:35:33.000 --> 00:35:35.679
<v Speaker 2>them like I can a pitcher. I think I'd be

725
00:35:35.719 --> 00:35:37.840
<v Speaker 2>better at it, but I don't take the time to

726
00:35:37.880 --> 00:35:40.000
<v Speaker 2>do that with all these guys and cutting up all

727
00:35:40.000 --> 00:35:42.199
<v Speaker 2>their plate appearances. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know

728
00:35:42.239 --> 00:35:45.320
<v Speaker 2>if there's like one just kind of like global Oh,

729
00:35:45.639 --> 00:35:47.599
<v Speaker 2>I took guys who struck out too much because there

730
00:35:47.639 --> 00:35:49.880
<v Speaker 2>was guys on this list to edge high strikeout rates

731
00:35:49.880 --> 00:35:53.159
<v Speaker 2>and significantly drop those like a Ritter. So so I

732
00:35:53.159 --> 00:35:55.039
<v Speaker 2>don't know. I don't know if I'm answering your questions

733
00:35:55.199 --> 00:35:57.199
<v Speaker 2>question well or not. But I think it's a lot

734
00:35:57.199 --> 00:35:58.880
<v Speaker 2>of subjective stuff.

735
00:35:58.920 --> 00:36:01.679
<v Speaker 3>And yeah, it's a tricky question kind of coming and

736
00:36:01.719 --> 00:36:05.599
<v Speaker 3>looking at the misses and seeing was it something that

737
00:36:05.679 --> 00:36:08.280
<v Speaker 3>was systemic to the process or was it just hey,

738
00:36:08.280 --> 00:36:09.039
<v Speaker 3>that's baseball.

739
00:36:09.400 --> 00:36:13.360
<v Speaker 2>I think I think some maybe I could pay or

740
00:36:13.800 --> 00:36:17.159
<v Speaker 2>maybe not right off injury stuff as much, Like you know,

741
00:36:17.320 --> 00:36:19.599
<v Speaker 2>I like Ryan Sermak. Dude, he was like my first

742
00:36:19.599 --> 00:36:21.920
<v Speaker 2>pick in the in the hitter draft, and I was like, oh,

743
00:36:21.960 --> 00:36:24.320
<v Speaker 2>I think he's good. He's just you know, hasn't been healthy.

744
00:36:24.480 --> 00:36:28.039
<v Speaker 2>Well he still hasn't been that healthy, and maybe he

745
00:36:28.400 --> 00:36:32.320
<v Speaker 2>really isn't good. So maybe Wayne injury stuff missed time

746
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:33.280
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more.

747
00:36:33.400 --> 00:36:35.960
<v Speaker 3>I think for me, looking through some of the ones

748
00:36:36.039 --> 00:36:39.880
<v Speaker 3>that were good versus some of the ones that were missus,

749
00:36:40.440 --> 00:36:43.280
<v Speaker 3>there's definitely some luck.

750
00:36:43.239 --> 00:36:44.159
<v Speaker 4>Involved, you know.

751
00:36:44.440 --> 00:36:46.360
<v Speaker 3>I look at some of the guys that ended up

752
00:36:46.440 --> 00:36:50.039
<v Speaker 3>higher on this list and had really good years, and wow,

753
00:36:50.239 --> 00:36:53.079
<v Speaker 3>look at that. They ran high babbits or high homer

754
00:36:53.119 --> 00:36:55.480
<v Speaker 3>to flyball rates, you know, or both. In the case

755
00:36:55.519 --> 00:36:58.159
<v Speaker 3>of like Oliver Dunne, a guy we had talked about

756
00:36:58.239 --> 00:37:01.960
<v Speaker 3>for Milwaukee, he ran a four fifty BABBB in his

757
00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:05.719
<v Speaker 3>small showing in Triple A and hit a couple of

758
00:37:05.719 --> 00:37:08.320
<v Speaker 3>homers and then got some play in the bigs, Like

759
00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:10.679
<v Speaker 3>that's that's not who he is. That's not like how

760
00:37:10.679 --> 00:37:12.880
<v Speaker 3>he's going to be. But that was one that was

761
00:37:12.920 --> 00:37:15.360
<v Speaker 3>a bit lucky. And then looking on the ones that

762
00:37:15.400 --> 00:37:18.559
<v Speaker 3>were less successful, like Jackson Lofton, who was like a

763
00:37:18.599 --> 00:37:21.800
<v Speaker 3>plus club guy that I like for Houston, Well, he

764
00:37:21.880 --> 00:37:24.360
<v Speaker 3>ran a two forty eight BABBB, his strikeout rate ticked

765
00:37:24.440 --> 00:37:26.840
<v Speaker 3>up to twenty seven percent, and he ran a seventy

766
00:37:26.880 --> 00:37:30.000
<v Speaker 3>four WRC plus on the year split between HIA and

767
00:37:30.039 --> 00:37:32.800
<v Speaker 3>Triple A. And it's like, yeah, it's like that's not

768
00:37:32.840 --> 00:37:35.360
<v Speaker 3>a great season. That doesn't portend good things at the

769
00:37:35.360 --> 00:37:38.039
<v Speaker 3>big leagues, so you know, it's it's sort of a mix,

770
00:37:38.159 --> 00:37:40.719
<v Speaker 3>like some guys kind of performed how you wanted and

771
00:37:40.880 --> 00:37:42.840
<v Speaker 3>took a step forward, but some didn't.

772
00:37:42.960 --> 00:37:45.360
<v Speaker 4>And sure, that's just part of baseball.

773
00:37:45.400 --> 00:37:47.079
<v Speaker 2>And there's still guys like just looking at some of

774
00:37:47.079 --> 00:37:50.639
<v Speaker 2>the zero percenters that I think had good, successful seasons,

775
00:37:50.679 --> 00:37:54.599
<v Speaker 2>it's just not like translating to fantasy popularity, you know,

776
00:37:54.719 --> 00:37:58.519
<v Speaker 2>like my Houston bat Miguel Palmer. Sure his offensive numbers

777
00:37:58.559 --> 00:38:01.440
<v Speaker 2>aren't super great. I think there is a potential good

778
00:38:01.519 --> 00:38:04.480
<v Speaker 2>offensive player in there, but he's extended two levels, is

779
00:38:04.559 --> 00:38:07.079
<v Speaker 2>up in Triple A now, like he's a legit prospect,

780
00:38:07.119 --> 00:38:09.519
<v Speaker 2>you know, And I get that rostering him in a

781
00:38:09.559 --> 00:38:12.119
<v Speaker 2>fantasy league that makes complete sense. But there's still a

782
00:38:12.119 --> 00:38:15.320
<v Speaker 2>lot of stories that have not totally been told yet.

783
00:38:15.360 --> 00:38:17.599
<v Speaker 2>And that's that's the fun part. Like we're gonna select

784
00:38:17.599 --> 00:38:19.480
<v Speaker 2>the b side of the year, and I think with

785
00:38:19.559 --> 00:38:21.960
<v Speaker 2>some of the finalists, you'll see there were a couple

786
00:38:22.000 --> 00:38:23.960
<v Speaker 2>of guys on there that I selected a few years

787
00:38:23.960 --> 00:38:26.079
<v Speaker 2>ago and didn't really do anything and then this year

788
00:38:26.199 --> 00:38:28.039
<v Speaker 2>was their year, you know, And that's how it's going

789
00:38:28.119 --> 00:38:28.320
<v Speaker 2>to go.

790
00:38:28.440 --> 00:38:30.760
<v Speaker 3>And that's well, even even a guy that we had

791
00:38:30.840 --> 00:38:33.760
<v Speaker 3>checked in on after maybe a month or two Joiner

792
00:38:33.840 --> 00:38:37.719
<v Speaker 3>for Hardo, who is my east side pick. I think

793
00:38:37.719 --> 00:38:39.760
<v Speaker 3>I drafted him right and like the seventh pick or

794
00:38:39.760 --> 00:38:42.039
<v Speaker 3>something of r hit her side of the draft and

795
00:38:42.119 --> 00:38:45.159
<v Speaker 3>outfielder for Minnesota. He was awful to start the year,

796
00:38:45.559 --> 00:38:47.719
<v Speaker 3>just strike out right through the roof and Triple A.

797
00:38:48.039 --> 00:38:50.639
<v Speaker 3>Wasn't walking, wasn't hitting the ball, hard wasn't running like.

798
00:38:50.719 --> 00:38:53.639
<v Speaker 3>It was a miserable start to the year. And he

799
00:38:53.840 --> 00:38:57.400
<v Speaker 3>ended up thinking in dfage. I think they cut him, yeah,

800
00:38:57.440 --> 00:39:00.639
<v Speaker 3>and at least he landed, Yeah, they really, And then

801
00:39:00.920 --> 00:39:03.679
<v Speaker 3>he landed with Pittsburgh and they stuck him back in

802
00:39:03.719 --> 00:39:06.480
<v Speaker 3>Double A and he was awesome. His line for the

803
00:39:06.480 --> 00:39:10.440
<v Speaker 3>whole season ended up being pretty strong, certainly given how

804
00:39:10.480 --> 00:39:13.320
<v Speaker 3>he started, given you know, the kind of up and

805
00:39:13.360 --> 00:39:15.920
<v Speaker 3>down nature of the year. It ended up being a

806
00:39:16.239 --> 00:39:19.599
<v Speaker 3>one to ten WRC plus right across the year. But

807
00:39:19.800 --> 00:39:21.719
<v Speaker 3>I would have said halfway through the year that he

808
00:39:21.840 --> 00:39:24.199
<v Speaker 3>was one of my worst picks. And again in retrospect,

809
00:39:24.239 --> 00:39:26.360
<v Speaker 3>the other guy that I talked about who was pretty similar,

810
00:39:26.400 --> 00:39:27.920
<v Speaker 3>he ended up getting a cup of coffee in the

811
00:39:27.920 --> 00:39:30.719
<v Speaker 3>bigs and Deshaun Cursey. I should have gone with Cursey

812
00:39:30.800 --> 00:39:33.639
<v Speaker 3>but yeah, Farhardo. You know, he maybe he's going to

813
00:39:33.840 --> 00:39:35.880
<v Speaker 3>stick around with the pirates and do something. So the

814
00:39:35.920 --> 00:39:38.920
<v Speaker 3>story is far from written with a lot of these guys.

815
00:39:38.760 --> 00:39:41.239
<v Speaker 2>Right, And we had quite a few b siders just

816
00:39:41.400 --> 00:39:43.559
<v Speaker 2>selections from this year and make the Bigs at least

817
00:39:43.559 --> 00:39:44.519
<v Speaker 2>get a cup of coffee.

818
00:39:45.800 --> 00:39:48.440
<v Speaker 4>A couple more recently since we last recorded.

819
00:39:48.119 --> 00:39:50.400
<v Speaker 2>I know, this whole point was I want to get

820
00:39:50.440 --> 00:39:55.239
<v Speaker 2>congrats to you and Gustavo making my boys, man, my boys.

821
00:39:55.360 --> 00:39:57.800
<v Speaker 3>As we were sitting here just about to start recording,

822
00:39:58.199 --> 00:39:59.960
<v Speaker 3>I watched his first major league hit.

823
00:40:00.239 --> 00:40:02.800
<v Speaker 4>I'm so proud. I'm so proud. Gustavo's great.

824
00:40:04.480 --> 00:40:08.199
<v Speaker 2>They had him in DOUBLEA for seemingly forever, and then

825
00:40:08.239 --> 00:40:09.880
<v Speaker 2>it was just like, I don't know what was it,

826
00:40:09.920 --> 00:40:11.800
<v Speaker 2>a couple of weeks in Triple A and now now

827
00:40:11.800 --> 00:40:15.159
<v Speaker 2>he's up there and he's fun. He's fun, fun, so fun,

828
00:40:15.320 --> 00:40:16.400
<v Speaker 2>fun fire hydrant.

829
00:40:16.760 --> 00:40:21.360
<v Speaker 3>His first hit was classic Gustavo, one two count fastball,

830
00:40:21.519 --> 00:40:24.719
<v Speaker 3>like letter high and he just laces it the opposite field,

831
00:40:24.880 --> 00:40:28.000
<v Speaker 3>immediately raises his hand in celebration. Is he's running down

832
00:40:28.039 --> 00:40:29.480
<v Speaker 3>the line. He's so fun.

833
00:40:30.960 --> 00:40:33.760
<v Speaker 2>Thirty nine B setters have made the Bigs now Matt.

834
00:40:33.840 --> 00:40:37.480
<v Speaker 2>And hopefully next year we get even more. I'll break

835
00:40:37.519 --> 00:40:40.400
<v Speaker 2>this year's record of I mean it's really the first year,

836
00:40:40.880 --> 00:40:43.280
<v Speaker 2>so it'll be the record.

837
00:40:43.280 --> 00:40:46.519
<v Speaker 4>But yes, Nah, how many do we get from this class.

838
00:40:46.159 --> 00:40:50.920
<v Speaker 2>From this class that we just selected a year ago? Twelve? Matt,

839
00:40:50.960 --> 00:40:54.000
<v Speaker 2>there were twelve of this year's class that actually hit

840
00:40:54.039 --> 00:40:54.840
<v Speaker 2>the bigs this year.

841
00:40:55.199 --> 00:40:56.000
<v Speaker 4>Not bad.

842
00:40:56.159 --> 00:40:59.760
<v Speaker 2>Now will they stick around or be anything fantasy wise?

843
00:41:00.199 --> 00:41:05.920
<v Speaker 2>Totally another story. But yeah, but Matt, let's select the

844
00:41:05.960 --> 00:41:08.840
<v Speaker 2>B side of the year. You got anybody in mind?

845
00:41:09.119 --> 00:41:11.000
<v Speaker 4>Talking inside all the time?

846
00:41:11.239 --> 00:41:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Year, the most popular, the most rostered B siders right

847
00:41:16.039 --> 00:41:20.320
<v Speaker 2>now are Tovar, Michael Garcia, Raphaela. So I don't know,

848
00:41:20.320 --> 00:41:22.320
<v Speaker 2>if you want to look at it that way, I

849
00:41:22.320 --> 00:41:25.760
<v Speaker 2>don't know who had the most successful MLB season or

850
00:41:26.320 --> 00:41:30.320
<v Speaker 2>is it somebody that really rose the most this year

851
00:41:30.639 --> 00:41:34.760
<v Speaker 2>popularity wise, or someone who you think rose the most

852
00:41:35.239 --> 00:41:38.440
<v Speaker 2>just as a player in general. I threw you about

853
00:41:38.440 --> 00:41:41.239
<v Speaker 2>twenty five names. I thought somebody on that list would

854
00:41:41.239 --> 00:41:41.440
<v Speaker 2>be it.

855
00:41:41.760 --> 00:41:45.079
<v Speaker 3>I think of this year, it's hard not to go

856
00:41:45.239 --> 00:41:48.119
<v Speaker 3>with Tovar or Garcia.

857
00:41:47.840 --> 00:41:50.519
<v Speaker 2>So you'd go that route. But I mean that's kind

858
00:41:50.559 --> 00:41:53.480
<v Speaker 2>of just like old news, isn't it. Like is it really.

859
00:41:53.599 --> 00:41:56.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Like, are they the b sider of this this

860
00:41:56.400 --> 00:42:01.280
<v Speaker 3>year when both broke out before? I guess maybe not?

861
00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:06.039
<v Speaker 2>Maybe better I with ask this, whose stack has risen

862
00:42:06.079 --> 00:42:09.320
<v Speaker 2>the most for you just as a real player or

863
00:42:09.480 --> 00:42:12.679
<v Speaker 2>fantasy asset. And if that's one of those, you know,

864
00:42:12.840 --> 00:42:14.679
<v Speaker 2>popular guys, so be it.

865
00:42:14.800 --> 00:42:19.960
<v Speaker 3>Hmmm, that's tough, man, that's tough. Leaning a little towards

866
00:42:20.360 --> 00:42:21.880
<v Speaker 3>Joan Kenzie Noel.

867
00:42:22.280 --> 00:42:25.800
<v Speaker 2>Ah, okay, who's rastered in forty eight percent of leagues

868
00:42:25.840 --> 00:42:26.280
<v Speaker 2>right now?

869
00:42:26.400 --> 00:42:28.559
<v Speaker 3>And what was he at the part of this year,

870
00:42:28.719 --> 00:42:30.519
<v Speaker 3>you know, like I know he was a couple of

871
00:42:30.559 --> 00:42:31.199
<v Speaker 3>years ago.

872
00:42:31.079 --> 00:42:35.039
<v Speaker 2>Right, yeah, twenty twenty one. Yeah, at the beginning of

873
00:42:35.079 --> 00:42:38.280
<v Speaker 2>this year he was rastered in sixteen percent of leagues. September,

874
00:42:38.360 --> 00:42:41.840
<v Speaker 2>well that's September of last year he was in sixteen percent.

875
00:42:42.000 --> 00:42:44.360
<v Speaker 2>So maybe even better, may he was at twelve percent.

876
00:42:44.480 --> 00:42:46.039
<v Speaker 3>Correct me if I'm wrong, But that might be the

877
00:42:46.039 --> 00:42:49.000
<v Speaker 3>biggest percentage jump on this list.

878
00:42:49.440 --> 00:42:52.039
<v Speaker 4>It might be, like that's a pretty big bump.

879
00:42:52.159 --> 00:42:55.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I guess maybe Raphael Garcia.

880
00:42:55.360 --> 00:42:57.159
<v Speaker 4>Could have had a little bit bigger bump.

881
00:42:57.199 --> 00:43:00.480
<v Speaker 3>But here here's why I'm saying Noel. I really liked

882
00:43:00.559 --> 00:43:02.880
<v Speaker 3>him a couple of years ago, because he was showing

883
00:43:02.920 --> 00:43:06.719
<v Speaker 3>prodigious power at a really young age, at an advance level,

884
00:43:06.960 --> 00:43:12.039
<v Speaker 3>and I wasn't too concerned about the strikeout rate just

885
00:43:12.079 --> 00:43:15.440
<v Speaker 3>because he was so young and seemed to adjust to

886
00:43:16.000 --> 00:43:18.679
<v Speaker 3>each level relatively well.

887
00:43:18.840 --> 00:43:20.880
<v Speaker 4>You know, so I was a big fan.

888
00:43:20.960 --> 00:43:22.519
<v Speaker 3>I was a big fan of what he had been

889
00:43:22.920 --> 00:43:26.239
<v Speaker 3>doing up to this point. But even then, I was

890
00:43:26.280 --> 00:43:29.039
<v Speaker 3>still somewhat skeptical that he was going to be able

891
00:43:29.079 --> 00:43:31.639
<v Speaker 3>to make it work, because you know, every time he

892
00:43:31.760 --> 00:43:34.679
<v Speaker 3>jumped to a level, he would top that thirty percent

893
00:43:34.760 --> 00:43:38.159
<v Speaker 3>strikeout rate and it'd be like, oh, well, big donkey boy,

894
00:43:38.760 --> 00:43:40.360
<v Speaker 3>he swing hard, but.

895
00:43:40.360 --> 00:43:43.480
<v Speaker 4>He missed a lot, and I was a little worried

896
00:43:43.519 --> 00:43:47.079
<v Speaker 4>that it wasn't gonna work. But I kind.

897
00:43:46.960 --> 00:43:50.199
<v Speaker 3>Of think he's showing that not only can he make

898
00:43:50.239 --> 00:43:52.519
<v Speaker 3>it work, but like this might be kind of real.

899
00:43:52.760 --> 00:43:54.920
<v Speaker 3>I mean, he's just striking out thirty one percent of

900
00:43:54.920 --> 00:43:58.280
<v Speaker 3>the time in the bigs so far, but he's still

901
00:43:58.320 --> 00:44:00.960
<v Speaker 3>just murdering the ball and he's putting it in the air.

902
00:44:01.119 --> 00:44:03.039
<v Speaker 3>And when you hit the ball as hard as he does,

903
00:44:03.239 --> 00:44:07.360
<v Speaker 3>that is a recipe for real, real success. And he's

904
00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:10.440
<v Speaker 3>still just twenty two. To me, is the one that

905
00:44:10.840 --> 00:44:13.519
<v Speaker 3>showing that he can. He's got the power, he can

906
00:44:13.559 --> 00:44:15.719
<v Speaker 3>get to it, he can lift it in air in

907
00:44:15.800 --> 00:44:18.519
<v Speaker 3>the bigs. That's exciting to me.

908
00:44:18.719 --> 00:44:19.920
<v Speaker 4>That's more.

909
00:44:20.440 --> 00:44:22.239
<v Speaker 3>It seems like he's getting to what I thought he

910
00:44:22.280 --> 00:44:25.679
<v Speaker 3>could be earlier, you know what I mean, And that's

911
00:44:25.880 --> 00:44:29.639
<v Speaker 3>a corner outfield, just absolute slugger. So I think he's

912
00:44:29.679 --> 00:44:32.440
<v Speaker 3>a really good He's probably the biggest one for me

913
00:44:32.480 --> 00:44:34.639
<v Speaker 3>because a lot of these other guys that we liked

914
00:44:34.679 --> 00:44:37.559
<v Speaker 3>for one reason or another, they haven't proved it at

915
00:44:37.559 --> 00:44:39.719
<v Speaker 3>the big league level, or they haven't done so for

916
00:44:39.800 --> 00:44:42.679
<v Speaker 3>very long, or there's still some warts to look at.

917
00:44:42.880 --> 00:44:44.440
<v Speaker 3>But Noel looks like.

918
00:44:44.679 --> 00:44:46.679
<v Speaker 4>He might be a middle of the order masher.

919
00:44:46.960 --> 00:44:49.400
<v Speaker 3>You might live with a slightly elevated strikeout rate, but

920
00:44:50.000 --> 00:44:52.280
<v Speaker 3>I kind of think you're gonna be happy about doing so,

921
00:44:52.639 --> 00:44:54.440
<v Speaker 3>especially in a power focused league.

922
00:44:54.559 --> 00:44:56.360
<v Speaker 2>I like that Clau. I think that's a solid pick,

923
00:44:56.480 --> 00:44:59.440
<v Speaker 2>and I think there's some similarities with who I'm going

924
00:44:59.519 --> 00:45:03.320
<v Speaker 2>to pick. I'm gonna go with Jose Tania, similar in

925
00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:05.599
<v Speaker 2>that I think both of them might be on a

926
00:45:05.679 --> 00:45:08.880
<v Speaker 2>track right now where we're talking about them having every

927
00:45:08.920 --> 00:45:12.559
<v Speaker 2>day run next year. Now, Noel may be closer to

928
00:45:12.639 --> 00:45:15.320
<v Speaker 2>that than Tany at this point. But Dany has been

929
00:45:15.360 --> 00:45:18.760
<v Speaker 2>pretty freaking good with his time up with the Nationals.

930
00:45:19.079 --> 00:45:21.760
<v Speaker 2>And I've been watching a lot of games and just

931
00:45:21.840 --> 00:45:24.760
<v Speaker 2>kind of the even some interviews and some of the jive,

932
00:45:25.039 --> 00:45:27.280
<v Speaker 2>some of the vibes that I'm getting is that like

933
00:45:27.440 --> 00:45:30.400
<v Speaker 2>they really like him. This is a good little example

934
00:45:30.440 --> 00:45:33.599
<v Speaker 2>of like prospect fatigue stuff to Matt, Like July of

935
00:45:33.719 --> 00:45:37.880
<v Speaker 2>twenty one, he was one percent, February twenty two, fifteen percent,

936
00:45:38.039 --> 00:45:41.280
<v Speaker 2>nine percent November of that year, down to four percent

937
00:45:41.559 --> 00:45:44.039
<v Speaker 2>a year ago, and then now he's up at twenty

938
00:45:44.079 --> 00:45:46.719
<v Speaker 2>three percent, you know, and I wasn't sure if he

939
00:45:46.760 --> 00:45:49.360
<v Speaker 2>would ever. You know, it's good enough to become and

940
00:45:49.400 --> 00:45:53.239
<v Speaker 2>I still don't necessarily know if an everyday MLB player,

941
00:45:53.280 --> 00:45:55.519
<v Speaker 2>but I think that's very much on the table now.

942
00:45:55.559 --> 00:45:57.719
<v Speaker 2>And guy can swing it. I know he's aggressive. I

943
00:45:57.760 --> 00:46:00.840
<v Speaker 2>know he's not a perfect hitter. He's had some WPA

944
00:46:01.360 --> 00:46:04.159
<v Speaker 2>moments and Big Rbo had a kN act at one

945
00:46:04.280 --> 00:46:06.639
<v Speaker 2>for four Totnite with their one RBI. I think he's

946
00:46:06.639 --> 00:46:10.239
<v Speaker 2>good enough defensively to play a good third base. And yeah,

947
00:46:10.280 --> 00:46:12.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't know his To me, that's the guy that

948
00:46:12.920 --> 00:46:16.880
<v Speaker 2>has legit become most legit who probably wasn't on this

949
00:46:16.960 --> 00:46:18.079
<v Speaker 2>list this year.

950
00:46:18.239 --> 00:46:21.360
<v Speaker 3>For me, yeah, he seems like somebody who might be

951
00:46:21.440 --> 00:46:26.239
<v Speaker 3>proving that his line drive skills are somewhat real. And

952
00:46:26.519 --> 00:46:29.280
<v Speaker 3>he reminds me a little bit of the Luis Garcia

953
00:46:29.559 --> 00:46:32.440
<v Speaker 3>for the Nats, like kind of a similar player in

954
00:46:32.480 --> 00:46:35.000
<v Speaker 3>some respects, and that they've been young for their level,

955
00:46:35.360 --> 00:46:38.840
<v Speaker 3>always have shown some skills, but people have always kind

956
00:46:38.840 --> 00:46:41.480
<v Speaker 3>of doubted that they can keep it going. I like

957
00:46:41.559 --> 00:46:44.880
<v Speaker 3>Tania to prove that wrong a bit. And again I'm

958
00:46:44.920 --> 00:46:48.159
<v Speaker 3>still skeptical that he can run a three seventy six

959
00:46:48.239 --> 00:46:51.679
<v Speaker 3>bab it over you know, six hundred plate appearances. But sure,

960
00:46:51.840 --> 00:46:54.360
<v Speaker 3>he does hit line drives at a pretty good clip.

961
00:46:54.400 --> 00:46:56.880
<v Speaker 3>He does hit the ball pretty hard yep, And in

962
00:46:56.920 --> 00:46:59.760
<v Speaker 3>his MLB time this year is showing that he's able

963
00:46:59.800 --> 00:47:02.719
<v Speaker 3>to herb the strikeout rate. If that gain is real,

964
00:47:03.000 --> 00:47:06.440
<v Speaker 3>then the Knats might have a decent little player on

965
00:47:06.480 --> 00:47:06.840
<v Speaker 3>their hand.

966
00:47:07.039 --> 00:47:10.239
<v Speaker 2>Talk about aggressive guys coming up, Matt. Maybe this is

967
00:47:10.280 --> 00:47:13.519
<v Speaker 2>a little self serving too, but he can hit good pitches.

968
00:47:13.559 --> 00:47:16.519
<v Speaker 2>He can do damage on you know, some nasty and

969
00:47:16.559 --> 00:47:19.679
<v Speaker 2>that's that's kind of what he's been doing in the BIGS.

970
00:47:20.239 --> 00:47:23.280
<v Speaker 2>He's not just you know, hitting the backed up slider

971
00:47:23.360 --> 00:47:26.519
<v Speaker 2>over the middle, you know. And yeah, maybe his aggressiveness

972
00:47:26.800 --> 00:47:29.039
<v Speaker 2>is a whammy for him, But right now he's got

973
00:47:29.039 --> 00:47:31.880
<v Speaker 2>the athleticism, he's got the bat speed, he's got the

974
00:47:32.360 --> 00:47:34.599
<v Speaker 2>mental reps in there that he can put the bat

975
00:47:34.639 --> 00:47:36.280
<v Speaker 2>on the ball at a pretty high clip. I think,

976
00:47:36.400 --> 00:47:38.400
<v Speaker 2>mm hmm. So I don't know I'm gonna go with him,

977
00:47:38.400 --> 00:47:41.079
<v Speaker 2>should we pull it? Maybe you are ten listeners who's

978
00:47:41.119 --> 00:47:44.159
<v Speaker 2>the b SAT year Noel ertained you. I'm sure they'll

979
00:47:44.159 --> 00:47:45.159
<v Speaker 2>go with Noel.

980
00:47:44.960 --> 00:47:48.639
<v Speaker 3>But sure I think we should also uh a pitcher,

981
00:47:48.719 --> 00:47:51.239
<v Speaker 3>you know, we can have your pictures hanging high and dry.

982
00:47:51.639 --> 00:47:53.800
<v Speaker 2>Well, we've only got you and I did it this

983
00:47:53.920 --> 00:47:56.159
<v Speaker 2>year and then threw some out last year, so it's

984
00:47:56.199 --> 00:47:58.519
<v Speaker 2>not as big of a pool to pick from. But

985
00:47:58.719 --> 00:48:01.159
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. You're going with somebody who's in the bigs,

986
00:48:01.159 --> 00:48:03.920
<v Speaker 2>and we just started getting some guys in the bigs.

987
00:48:04.239 --> 00:48:07.320
<v Speaker 3>Well, our two Detroit guys who said a top our

988
00:48:07.360 --> 00:48:10.119
<v Speaker 3>list are both pretty interesting picks.

989
00:48:10.199 --> 00:48:11.159
<v Speaker 4>But I don't know.

990
00:48:11.280 --> 00:48:14.840
<v Speaker 3>For me, Herder didn't show me anything new this year,

991
00:48:14.880 --> 00:48:16.719
<v Speaker 3>Like this is kind of the guy I thought he was.

992
00:48:17.000 --> 00:48:19.199
<v Speaker 3>You know, maybe it's succeeding even more than I than

993
00:48:19.239 --> 00:48:22.039
<v Speaker 3>I thought last year, But I'm not gonna pick him.

994
00:48:22.119 --> 00:48:24.880
<v Speaker 3>I'm the guy that has impressed me the most this year,

995
00:48:25.159 --> 00:48:28.039
<v Speaker 3>I think is Gary gil Hill. Like of a lot

996
00:48:28.039 --> 00:48:30.840
<v Speaker 3>of the guys that we picked looking at them last year,

997
00:48:31.119 --> 00:48:33.599
<v Speaker 3>like Logan Henderson, I think he'd be higher than this

998
00:48:33.760 --> 00:48:36.199
<v Speaker 3>if not for the injury to start the year. This

999
00:48:36.280 --> 00:48:38.400
<v Speaker 3>is the guy that I fell in love with watching

1000
00:48:38.559 --> 00:48:42.159
<v Speaker 3>last offseason. Like that's not a surprise, Logan Evans. I'm

1001
00:48:42.239 --> 00:48:45.760
<v Speaker 3>not really convinced yet, Like, yeah, he's twenty percent owned

1002
00:48:45.800 --> 00:48:47.960
<v Speaker 3>and he showed some stuff this year, But to me,

1003
00:48:48.159 --> 00:48:49.800
<v Speaker 3>I still think he's got a long way to go

1004
00:48:49.880 --> 00:48:54.079
<v Speaker 3>to really prove that he's rosterable as a kind of

1005
00:48:54.119 --> 00:48:58.000
<v Speaker 3>starter in the majors. But watching a bit of Gary

1006
00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:01.840
<v Speaker 3>gil Hill, I see, like I see that that has

1007
00:49:01.880 --> 00:49:06.639
<v Speaker 3>some potential. It's got a real mix, a nice pensiant

1008
00:49:06.719 --> 00:49:10.280
<v Speaker 3>for execution that I don't think everybody has. And he

1009
00:49:10.440 --> 00:49:12.960
<v Speaker 3>was one that I just didn't buy like you were,

1010
00:49:13.000 --> 00:49:15.639
<v Speaker 3>Like I thought he was a made a character, like

1011
00:49:15.719 --> 00:49:18.079
<v Speaker 3>you had just invented this name. And then even after

1012
00:49:18.119 --> 00:49:20.800
<v Speaker 3>I watched him, I was like, boy, these like fore innings,

1013
00:49:20.840 --> 00:49:23.880
<v Speaker 3>I don't really see what Nate sees here and having

1014
00:49:23.920 --> 00:49:26.239
<v Speaker 3>watched a fair amount more of him this year, that's

1015
00:49:26.320 --> 00:49:28.960
<v Speaker 3>the guy for me on the pitching side that most

1016
00:49:29.360 --> 00:49:31.679
<v Speaker 3>that my opinion about has most changed.

1017
00:49:31.719 --> 00:49:35.199
<v Speaker 2>I'd say right on, I think I would go with

1018
00:49:35.519 --> 00:49:39.840
<v Speaker 2>Kaider Montero because what I picked him last year, and

1019
00:49:39.880 --> 00:49:43.519
<v Speaker 2>that was nice he broke out. I wasn't sold that

1020
00:49:43.679 --> 00:49:46.519
<v Speaker 2>he was really going to be an MLB starter and

1021
00:49:46.559 --> 00:49:49.280
<v Speaker 2>that you know, yes he's starting right now, but he

1022
00:49:49.320 --> 00:49:53.119
<v Speaker 2>hasn't like really established himself. But I think I'm more

1023
00:49:53.119 --> 00:49:55.119
<v Speaker 2>inclined to think that he can stick in that role

1024
00:49:55.199 --> 00:49:57.599
<v Speaker 2>now than I did a year ago. And he's had

1025
00:49:57.639 --> 00:50:00.000
<v Speaker 2>a couple of nice outings and I think he could

1026
00:50:00.119 --> 00:50:02.639
<v Speaker 2>do it. So yeah, I think I'd go with Montero.

1027
00:50:02.840 --> 00:50:05.840
<v Speaker 2>B side arms just a lot of the arm specs

1028
00:50:05.840 --> 00:50:08.440
<v Speaker 2>that I pick up, I don't always totally like love

1029
00:50:08.480 --> 00:50:11.079
<v Speaker 2>them and don't want to like stay married to them.

1030
00:50:11.119 --> 00:50:15.199
<v Speaker 2>This is I totally want to use them as trade bait,

1031
00:50:15.280 --> 00:50:17.400
<v Speaker 2>you know. And Montero is a guy that I traded

1032
00:50:17.440 --> 00:50:20.760
<v Speaker 2>away just about everywhere, but I wonder if that was

1033
00:50:20.800 --> 00:50:21.320
<v Speaker 2>a mistake.

1034
00:50:21.400 --> 00:50:26.400
<v Speaker 3>Now Montero, I feel like his roster percentage is inflated

1035
00:50:26.440 --> 00:50:29.679
<v Speaker 3>by a couple of good outings recently, and you know

1036
00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:31.480
<v Speaker 3>same same is true of Herder too.

1037
00:50:31.599 --> 00:50:32.039
<v Speaker 4>For sure.

1038
00:50:32.280 --> 00:50:37.800
<v Speaker 3>At this point, I'm thinking that that Montero still might

1039
00:50:37.880 --> 00:50:41.679
<v Speaker 3>struggle to stick in the Tiger's rotation. He's the guy

1040
00:50:41.719 --> 00:50:44.719
<v Speaker 3>that I'm not totally convinced on, Like he's been useful

1041
00:50:44.760 --> 00:50:47.159
<v Speaker 3>and definitely showed some stuff.

1042
00:50:46.840 --> 00:50:49.280
<v Speaker 4>But to me, that's fair. I think there's.

1043
00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:51.280
<v Speaker 2>Before he before he got into the bigs. If you

1044
00:50:51.280 --> 00:50:54.239
<v Speaker 2>would ask, no way, I'm betting that he sticks now,

1045
00:50:54.280 --> 00:50:56.280
<v Speaker 2>I'm like, yeah, maybe I would, you know what I mean,

1046
00:50:56.400 --> 00:50:59.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm not I'm not completely sold. I didn't think i'd

1047
00:50:59.880 --> 00:51:02.599
<v Speaker 2>be in that situation looking at everybody else, like, I

1048
00:51:02.599 --> 00:51:06.000
<v Speaker 2>don't know if they really change my opinion as drastically

1049
00:51:06.039 --> 00:51:06.880
<v Speaker 2>as he did.

1050
00:51:07.039 --> 00:51:08.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think that makes sense. That makes sense.

1051
00:51:09.159 --> 00:51:11.320
<v Speaker 2>Are you sure that we can't go with brand Herder

1052
00:51:11.320 --> 00:51:14.960
<v Speaker 2>though he's a b side arm that's dominating the bigs.

1053
00:51:16.079 --> 00:51:20.039
<v Speaker 3>Honestly, I'd love to go with Herder. I it's just

1054
00:51:20.159 --> 00:51:22.599
<v Speaker 3>that this is kind of what I said, Like, I

1055
00:51:22.719 --> 00:51:24.960
<v Speaker 3>was like, he's gonna come up, he's gonna look different,

1056
00:51:25.079 --> 00:51:27.760
<v Speaker 3>he's gonna befuddle big leaguers. I think he might be

1057
00:51:27.800 --> 00:51:30.519
<v Speaker 3>getting a few more whiffs than I expected this time

1058
00:51:30.599 --> 00:51:33.039
<v Speaker 3>last year, and I'm not sure he's gonna be able

1059
00:51:33.119 --> 00:51:36.119
<v Speaker 3>to sustain one point one walk rate per nine or

1060
00:51:36.159 --> 00:51:39.599
<v Speaker 3>whatever it is. Like his his walk rate is really impressive,

1061
00:51:39.920 --> 00:51:43.400
<v Speaker 3>but like it feels pretty real to me. The fifth

1062
00:51:43.440 --> 00:51:47.559
<v Speaker 3>is there, the XCRA is two point one eight, Like.

1063
00:51:47.639 --> 00:51:49.000
<v Speaker 4>That's fucking phenomenal.

1064
00:51:49.119 --> 00:51:51.400
<v Speaker 3>And it's not like he's going out there in one

1065
00:51:51.480 --> 00:51:55.639
<v Speaker 3>run outings or in one inning outings to bump up

1066
00:51:55.639 --> 00:51:57.880
<v Speaker 3>the stuff or anything like, Yeah, he's only got one

1067
00:51:57.920 --> 00:52:01.519
<v Speaker 3>game started, but he's gone bulk and every single outing

1068
00:52:01.559 --> 00:52:04.679
<v Speaker 3>that he's had, So I've got I've got some opinions

1069
00:52:04.719 --> 00:52:08.079
<v Speaker 3>about this, like some thoughts about how he's succeeding and why,

1070
00:52:08.360 --> 00:52:12.039
<v Speaker 3>and to me, it seems fairly sustainable. He's not going

1071
00:52:12.119 --> 00:52:15.079
<v Speaker 3>to be a sub three er guy, I don't think.

1072
00:52:15.159 --> 00:52:18.119
<v Speaker 3>But is he going to be a really good, valuable

1073
00:52:18.159 --> 00:52:20.159
<v Speaker 3>starting pitcher, Yeah, I kind of think so.

1074
00:52:20.480 --> 00:52:22.880
<v Speaker 2>Why were his Triple A numbers so middling this I

1075
00:52:22.880 --> 00:52:24.960
<v Speaker 2>didn't watch much of him in Triple A at the

1076
00:52:25.000 --> 00:52:26.920
<v Speaker 2>beginning of the year. I watched a few outings and

1077
00:52:26.960 --> 00:52:27.440
<v Speaker 2>that was it.

1078
00:52:27.559 --> 00:52:31.079
<v Speaker 3>Early on, his walk rate was a little elevated for him.

1079
00:52:31.199 --> 00:52:33.239
<v Speaker 3>I think it was up over three per nine At

1080
00:52:33.239 --> 00:52:34.159
<v Speaker 3>one point.

1081
00:52:35.000 --> 00:52:37.079
<v Speaker 2>I wonder what he was doing, what he was throwing,

1082
00:52:37.199 --> 00:52:40.079
<v Speaker 2>what his game was looking like. If he was I

1083
00:52:40.119 --> 00:52:43.320
<v Speaker 2>don't know, throwing some offering more than than usual or

1084
00:52:43.880 --> 00:52:44.800
<v Speaker 2>what is it?

1085
00:52:44.920 --> 00:52:48.280
<v Speaker 3>Just yeah, I'm not sure about that. But I remember

1086
00:52:48.280 --> 00:52:50.400
<v Speaker 3>when we checked in on him and you were like, oh,

1087
00:52:50.519 --> 00:52:54.199
<v Speaker 3>the era is high, and he's like not succeeding like

1088
00:52:54.239 --> 00:52:56.960
<v Speaker 3>we kind of thought coming out of his really impressive

1089
00:52:57.320 --> 00:53:00.599
<v Speaker 3>double a the year before. But you look at it

1090
00:53:00.719 --> 00:53:04.920
<v Speaker 3>other than the walk rate ticking up ever so slightly,

1091
00:53:04.960 --> 00:53:07.320
<v Speaker 3>and again I think that was inflated a bit by

1092
00:53:07.320 --> 00:53:11.719
<v Speaker 3>some early outings. Everything else looked All of the skill

1093
00:53:11.800 --> 00:53:16.320
<v Speaker 3>related stuff looked pretty normal. But what wasn't normal was

1094
00:53:16.559 --> 00:53:19.519
<v Speaker 3>a three point fifty BABBEB of sixty three percent left

1095
00:53:19.559 --> 00:53:22.760
<v Speaker 3>on base and a fourteen percent homer to flyball rate.

1096
00:53:22.920 --> 00:53:25.119
<v Speaker 3>All of those were worse. Those are like the three

1097
00:53:25.239 --> 00:53:28.079
<v Speaker 3>luck metrics you look at for pictures right. While pitchers

1098
00:53:28.159 --> 00:53:32.480
<v Speaker 3>have some influence on BABBOB and some influence on homer

1099
00:53:32.519 --> 00:53:34.679
<v Speaker 3>to fly ball rate, left on base rate is like

1100
00:53:34.800 --> 00:53:37.800
<v Speaker 3>pretty much luck of the draw shit and BABEB and

1101
00:53:37.800 --> 00:53:40.840
<v Speaker 3>homer to flyball rate are also somewhat luck metric. Base

1102
00:53:41.079 --> 00:53:43.960
<v Speaker 3>and all of them were in the worst direction for

1103
00:53:44.079 --> 00:53:46.760
<v Speaker 3>his overall line. So when we looked in on him

1104
00:53:46.840 --> 00:53:49.519
<v Speaker 3>earlier this year and we're like, oh man, the ERA

1105
00:53:49.639 --> 00:53:52.519
<v Speaker 3>doesn't look great, and you know, his triple ARA still

1106
00:53:52.559 --> 00:53:55.039
<v Speaker 3>sits at five point eight, I was like, you know,

1107
00:53:55.320 --> 00:53:58.519
<v Speaker 3>I kind of don't really think it's telling us anything different,

1108
00:53:58.800 --> 00:54:01.880
<v Speaker 3>just as like this is the how the luck metrics

1109
00:54:02.599 --> 00:54:06.880
<v Speaker 3>is stupid. Yeah, yeah, and even FIP in this case, like, yeah,

1110
00:54:06.880 --> 00:54:09.360
<v Speaker 3>I you know, four to four FIP in triple A

1111
00:54:09.360 --> 00:54:12.679
<v Speaker 3>as a starter is like, that's fine. The International League

1112
00:54:12.719 --> 00:54:15.519
<v Speaker 3>is quite the PCL, but offense is up there, and

1113
00:54:15.599 --> 00:54:17.440
<v Speaker 3>I think those things should tell us that, like what

1114
00:54:17.480 --> 00:54:20.239
<v Speaker 3>he's doing at the major league level is due for

1115
00:54:20.360 --> 00:54:23.320
<v Speaker 3>some regression. But I also think that what we should

1116
00:54:23.360 --> 00:54:26.760
<v Speaker 3>look into the triple A line is, yeah, those luck

1117
00:54:26.840 --> 00:54:30.400
<v Speaker 3>metrics were all three against him. He's still pitched to

1118
00:54:30.480 --> 00:54:33.199
<v Speaker 3>a four to four FIP, Like that's impressive, that's that's

1119
00:54:33.280 --> 00:54:36.960
<v Speaker 3>not that's pretty good. So that to me is that

1120
00:54:37.079 --> 00:54:39.639
<v Speaker 3>he wasn't doing much different. And I think we've seen

1121
00:54:39.679 --> 00:54:41.639
<v Speaker 3>that at the big league level too, that he still

1122
00:54:41.679 --> 00:54:46.559
<v Speaker 3>throws mostly fastballs, leans on his slider in the strikeout counts,

1123
00:54:46.599 --> 00:54:49.079
<v Speaker 3>and then has still a bit of a show meet

1124
00:54:49.199 --> 00:54:51.599
<v Speaker 3>change up that I still think he could do to

1125
00:54:51.719 --> 00:54:54.960
<v Speaker 3>use a bit more the Okay, i'll spoil a little

1126
00:54:54.960 --> 00:54:57.960
<v Speaker 3>bit about the hypothesis that I have for how herd

1127
00:54:58.039 --> 00:55:02.440
<v Speaker 3>Or succeeding here is he he has a unique four

1128
00:55:02.480 --> 00:55:06.360
<v Speaker 3>seam fastball, and he uses his plus command in a

1129
00:55:06.400 --> 00:55:09.519
<v Speaker 3>really interesting way. So his main pitch is his two

1130
00:55:09.559 --> 00:55:13.679
<v Speaker 3>seam fastball, and while it grades out okay by some

1131
00:55:13.719 --> 00:55:16.840
<v Speaker 3>of the stuffed metrics, it looks sort of like your

1132
00:55:17.000 --> 00:55:19.599
<v Speaker 3>standard sinker. It's got some run, its got some sinc

1133
00:55:19.679 --> 00:55:22.960
<v Speaker 3>but neither are super impressive. And as we talked about

1134
00:55:23.000 --> 00:55:27.480
<v Speaker 3>before Nate in the Dynasty, Herder doesn't have great extension,

1135
00:55:27.599 --> 00:55:30.800
<v Speaker 3>even though he is a huge old donkey six six

1136
00:55:30.920 --> 00:55:32.559
<v Speaker 3>two fifty with long limbs.

1137
00:55:32.840 --> 00:55:34.039
<v Speaker 4>One thing that I think.

1138
00:55:34.119 --> 00:55:39.320
<v Speaker 3>Is helping him as a sinkerballer primarily with his two

1139
00:55:39.320 --> 00:55:44.119
<v Speaker 3>seam fastball, is I wonder if his lack of extension

1140
00:55:44.199 --> 00:55:46.800
<v Speaker 3>is helping the movement play up a little bit more

1141
00:55:47.039 --> 00:55:52.079
<v Speaker 3>on the on the two seam. So his observed horizontal

1142
00:55:52.119 --> 00:55:56.239
<v Speaker 3>movement is greater than the predicted horizontal movement, and some

1143
00:55:56.320 --> 00:55:58.880
<v Speaker 3>of that is due to what's called lamin or flown.

1144
00:55:59.000 --> 00:56:00.960
<v Speaker 3>If you if you've heard that term before. But the

1145
00:56:01.039 --> 00:56:05.840
<v Speaker 3>turbulence around the two seam that lambiner flow, laminar flow.

1146
00:56:06.079 --> 00:56:08.960
<v Speaker 2>It's not like a like a woman thing, No, it's.

1147
00:56:09.199 --> 00:56:12.719
<v Speaker 3>It's the turbulence around the ball that causes it to

1148
00:56:13.159 --> 00:56:16.960
<v Speaker 3>move more than you would expect just given the spin characteristics.

1149
00:56:17.119 --> 00:56:21.039
<v Speaker 3>It's a super complicated physics phenomenon, but it helps explain

1150
00:56:21.239 --> 00:56:24.000
<v Speaker 3>the difference between lamar. I think it was a guy.

1151
00:56:24.239 --> 00:56:26.519
<v Speaker 3>I think that's a guy's last name. I don't remember

1152
00:56:26.920 --> 00:56:29.239
<v Speaker 3>it's capitalized when when I've seen it, so it usually

1153
00:56:29.280 --> 00:56:34.119
<v Speaker 3>means it's a guy. But I wonder if he's letting

1154
00:56:34.159 --> 00:56:37.719
<v Speaker 3>the ball move more because he isn't extending down so

1155
00:56:37.920 --> 00:56:41.519
<v Speaker 3>unlike with a like a four seam super high ride fastball,

1156
00:56:41.519 --> 00:56:43.239
<v Speaker 3>where you want to release it as close to the

1157
00:56:43.280 --> 00:56:45.800
<v Speaker 3>batter as possible so they have as little time to react.

1158
00:56:46.039 --> 00:56:48.320
<v Speaker 3>I wonder with something like a two seam whether he

1159
00:56:48.440 --> 00:56:51.079
<v Speaker 3>isn't served by the little bit of extra movement that

1160
00:56:51.159 --> 00:56:54.440
<v Speaker 3>he gets by letting that ball hit the air and

1161
00:56:54.840 --> 00:56:56.400
<v Speaker 3>move a little bit more as it goes.

1162
00:56:56.719 --> 00:57:01.480
<v Speaker 2>It's not a completely alien concept. I've never heard lamin

1163
00:57:01.559 --> 00:57:04.440
<v Speaker 2>or flow, but I've heard some people talk about and

1164
00:57:04.480 --> 00:57:06.679
<v Speaker 2>this makes sense to me too, Like the ball obviously,

1165
00:57:06.719 --> 00:57:09.360
<v Speaker 2>if the ball's in the air longer, has longer to travel,

1166
00:57:09.639 --> 00:57:11.559
<v Speaker 2>you could get more movement, like you're saying, right, I

1167
00:57:11.559 --> 00:57:14.480
<v Speaker 2>think that's is that fair the way that I that

1168
00:57:14.760 --> 00:57:17.239
<v Speaker 2>And also too part of that because like Noah Schultz

1169
00:57:17.239 --> 00:57:19.840
<v Speaker 2>has a really short extension as well.

1170
00:57:19.920 --> 00:57:20.239
<v Speaker 4>Hmmm.

1171
00:57:20.679 --> 00:57:23.960
<v Speaker 2>And it's funky from the left side, very basically putting it.

1172
00:57:24.000 --> 00:57:26.599
<v Speaker 2>If you're if you're throwing a ball that looks like

1173
00:57:26.639 --> 00:57:29.360
<v Speaker 2>a strike, right, which is you know, an optimal thing

1174
00:57:29.440 --> 00:57:31.880
<v Speaker 2>for a pitcher to do, and the ball is traveling

1175
00:57:32.000 --> 00:57:35.119
<v Speaker 2>longer and looking like a strike longer, like that might

1176
00:57:35.199 --> 00:57:38.320
<v Speaker 2>be a part that plays into it as well. Does

1177
00:57:38.320 --> 00:57:38.920
<v Speaker 2>that make sense?

1178
00:57:39.159 --> 00:57:41.400
<v Speaker 3>I think that that's some of it too. And one

1179
00:57:41.519 --> 00:57:44.159
<v Speaker 3>thing that he does seem to have is pretty good

1180
00:57:44.199 --> 00:57:46.599
<v Speaker 3>command of all four of his pitches. And I say

1181
00:57:46.599 --> 00:57:50.119
<v Speaker 3>that too because he has a unique fastball, a four

1182
00:57:50.159 --> 00:57:54.599
<v Speaker 3>seam fastball he uses very differently to his two seam.

1183
00:57:54.760 --> 00:57:56.840
<v Speaker 3>Two seams is bread and butter. He's using it early

1184
00:57:56.880 --> 00:57:58.800
<v Speaker 3>in the count to get strikes. He's using it on

1185
00:57:58.840 --> 00:58:01.760
<v Speaker 3>the shadow. You look at the heat map and it's

1186
00:58:01.800 --> 00:58:03.800
<v Speaker 3>one of those ones where it's a lot in the middle.

1187
00:58:03.840 --> 00:58:06.760
<v Speaker 3>But he also puts it in all different corners of

1188
00:58:06.800 --> 00:58:09.480
<v Speaker 3>the zone depending on what hinded batter he's facing. But

1189
00:58:09.559 --> 00:58:12.000
<v Speaker 3>his four seam fastball, if you look at his heat

1190
00:58:12.039 --> 00:58:15.360
<v Speaker 3>plot on that, he commands the shit out of that thing.

1191
00:58:15.559 --> 00:58:17.840
<v Speaker 3>It is only at the top of the zone. And

1192
00:58:18.039 --> 00:58:20.480
<v Speaker 3>now you're saying, like, oh, well, of course, like you

1193
00:58:20.519 --> 00:58:22.679
<v Speaker 3>throw a foreseam fastball at the top of the zone,

1194
00:58:22.719 --> 00:58:25.199
<v Speaker 3>you're looking for pop ups, you're looking for whiffs, and

1195
00:58:25.239 --> 00:58:28.480
<v Speaker 3>that's what you're going for. But that's not the shape

1196
00:58:28.599 --> 00:58:32.920
<v Speaker 3>of Herder's fastball. Herder's fastball actually is a unique outlier

1197
00:58:33.000 --> 00:58:37.840
<v Speaker 3>in the other direction. It drops way more than other

1198
00:58:38.039 --> 00:58:42.000
<v Speaker 3>similar velocity and spin rate foreseeing fastballs. And I'm not

1199
00:58:42.039 --> 00:58:45.400
<v Speaker 3>sure why this is yet, but you see aiming that

1200
00:58:45.440 --> 00:58:48.199
<v Speaker 3>thing at the top of the zone. You see these guys,

1201
00:58:48.480 --> 00:58:51.320
<v Speaker 3>nobody's hitting it hard. They're also hitting it on the

1202
00:58:51.360 --> 00:58:53.440
<v Speaker 3>ground a lot, which is sort of a weird thing

1203
00:58:53.599 --> 00:58:55.960
<v Speaker 3>for a fastball at the top of the zone. And

1204
00:58:56.159 --> 00:59:00.440
<v Speaker 3>I wonder if there's something about the unique nature of

1205
00:59:00.440 --> 00:59:03.320
<v Speaker 3>of his four steamer that guys are looking at and

1206
00:59:03.440 --> 00:59:07.920
<v Speaker 3>used to that four seam riding high, hard fastball and

1207
00:59:08.039 --> 00:59:10.480
<v Speaker 3>they're trying to swing to try and hit that ball

1208
00:59:10.519 --> 00:59:13.000
<v Speaker 3>and hit it hard and hit it out. But instead

1209
00:59:13.039 --> 00:59:17.679
<v Speaker 3>of it continuing to quote unquote rise as the as

1210
00:59:17.679 --> 00:59:21.360
<v Speaker 3>we're seeing more and more often, Herder's unique extra five

1211
00:59:21.519 --> 00:59:25.920
<v Speaker 3>inches of drop. So it drops five inches more than

1212
00:59:25.960 --> 00:59:29.920
<v Speaker 3>you would expect it to given the rest of its characteristic.

1213
00:59:30.079 --> 00:59:34.239
<v Speaker 3>That's a big amount. And so you look at him

1214
00:59:34.239 --> 00:59:37.119
<v Speaker 3>on stackcasts and like that's a huge outlier. It's just

1215
00:59:37.199 --> 00:59:39.719
<v Speaker 3>that it's an outlier in the other direction that we're

1216
00:59:39.840 --> 00:59:42.199
<v Speaker 3>used to thinking about four seamers. And I have a

1217
00:59:42.280 --> 00:59:46.000
<v Speaker 3>hunch that that's really leading into why his batted ball

1218
00:59:46.079 --> 00:59:49.159
<v Speaker 3>outcomes and why his expected era from its stack caast

1219
00:59:49.199 --> 00:59:53.440
<v Speaker 3>metrics remain excellent. As I mentioned in the Dynasty Got Discord,

1220
00:59:53.599 --> 00:59:56.800
<v Speaker 3>the guy that comps closest to Brandt Herder as far

1221
00:59:56.840 --> 00:59:59.679
<v Speaker 3>as batted ball outcomes is Corbyn Burns.

1222
01:00:00.079 --> 01:00:02.079
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, who excels.

1223
01:00:01.519 --> 01:00:05.119
<v Speaker 3>At getting the soft contact, excels it getting weak contact

1224
01:00:05.159 --> 01:00:05.840
<v Speaker 3>on his pitches.

1225
01:00:06.079 --> 01:00:09.519
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Well, that you bring up a couple of interesting

1226
01:00:09.599 --> 01:00:14.079
<v Speaker 2>points to me, Matt, Like, okay, so stuff plus models, right,

1227
01:00:14.360 --> 01:00:17.280
<v Speaker 2>I am not a scholar. Aren't they supposed to measure

1228
01:00:17.639 --> 01:00:21.280
<v Speaker 2>how different a particular pitcher is for steam fastball or

1229
01:00:21.320 --> 01:00:26.880
<v Speaker 2>whatever offering is the mean fastball of the league. Yes, okay,

1230
01:00:26.960 --> 01:00:31.079
<v Speaker 2>but so is there not like an absolute value sort

1231
01:00:31.079 --> 01:00:34.760
<v Speaker 2>of measurement going on there, Like, Okay, this for steam

1232
01:00:34.840 --> 01:00:39.280
<v Speaker 2>fastball is really good because it's got x amount of

1233
01:00:39.280 --> 01:00:42.880
<v Speaker 2>more inches of you know, IVB or whatever. But like,

1234
01:00:42.880 --> 01:00:46.639
<v Speaker 2>like you're talking about Herders, it's like like maybe it's

1235
01:00:46.639 --> 01:00:50.079
<v Speaker 2>like a kish fastball, like it's it's so bad it's

1236
01:00:50.119 --> 01:00:51.719
<v Speaker 2>good sort of an idea.

1237
01:00:52.119 --> 01:00:52.880
<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure.

1238
01:00:53.239 --> 01:00:56.159
<v Speaker 2>Just measure it that way if you're supposed to be

1239
01:00:56.199 --> 01:00:58.239
<v Speaker 2>measuring the difference from the mean.

1240
01:00:58.559 --> 01:00:59.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm not sure.

1241
01:00:59.440 --> 01:01:01.800
<v Speaker 3>And some of this might be just some small sample

1242
01:01:01.880 --> 01:01:04.880
<v Speaker 3>nonsense and people might start teeing off on Herders for

1243
01:01:05.079 --> 01:01:07.920
<v Speaker 3>seam tomorrow, Like I don't know, but I do know

1244
01:01:08.039 --> 01:01:15.079
<v Speaker 3>that stuff plus grades herders foreseem fastball as like absolutely atrocious.

1245
01:01:15.519 --> 01:01:17.920
<v Speaker 3>And I think so does pitching Bot too. Yeah, both

1246
01:01:17.960 --> 01:01:21.039
<v Speaker 3>of them like say that this pitch should be unplayable.

1247
01:01:21.239 --> 01:01:24.800
<v Speaker 3>It says his sinker is okay, like below average but okay,

1248
01:01:25.079 --> 01:01:27.559
<v Speaker 3>and his slider is really good, and his changeup is

1249
01:01:27.639 --> 01:01:30.880
<v Speaker 3>atrocious but he's got good locations and so it all

1250
01:01:30.920 --> 01:01:34.199
<v Speaker 3>adds up to again, I've got some I think that

1251
01:01:34.480 --> 01:01:36.599
<v Speaker 3>both stuff plus and pitchingbot don't do a good job

1252
01:01:36.599 --> 01:01:39.960
<v Speaker 3>of like actually using numbers to make them mean something useful,

1253
01:01:40.000 --> 01:01:43.280
<v Speaker 3>but gives them an overall pitching plus of ninety five

1254
01:01:43.360 --> 01:01:45.559
<v Speaker 3>with all those things combined, and a stuff plus of

1255
01:01:45.719 --> 01:01:49.400
<v Speaker 3>ninety even though he still is throwing by far more

1256
01:01:49.559 --> 01:01:52.960
<v Speaker 3>fastballs than he is any offspeed. I still don't understand

1257
01:01:52.960 --> 01:01:55.360
<v Speaker 3>how that works when it just like hammers his other

1258
01:01:55.639 --> 01:01:59.239
<v Speaker 3>his other stuff grades, but I wonder if those stuff

1259
01:01:59.280 --> 01:02:01.920
<v Speaker 3>grades are kind of missing that kind of thing. And

1260
01:02:02.079 --> 01:02:04.760
<v Speaker 3>looking at some of the other comps that are on

1261
01:02:04.920 --> 01:02:08.880
<v Speaker 3>his like pitching characteristics comps on stack cast, I think

1262
01:02:08.920 --> 01:02:12.039
<v Speaker 3>they were like it was like Braxton Garrett, Shoot, I'm

1263
01:02:12.079 --> 01:02:14.480
<v Speaker 3>forgetting some of the others, but it was like maybe

1264
01:02:14.559 --> 01:02:17.679
<v Speaker 3>just in Steel it was like crafty lefty types, you

1265
01:02:17.719 --> 01:02:20.440
<v Speaker 3>know that have like a low nineties fastball and then

1266
01:02:20.480 --> 01:02:24.079
<v Speaker 3>an interesting array of secondaries, and that all seemed like

1267
01:02:24.079 --> 01:02:26.519
<v Speaker 3>pretty useful pictures to me. I was like, those are

1268
01:02:26.599 --> 01:02:27.880
<v Speaker 3>some decent pictures.

1269
01:02:27.920 --> 01:02:29.559
<v Speaker 4>Like I don't hate that group.

1270
01:02:29.400 --> 01:02:32.119
<v Speaker 2>Right, Sometimes part of being a really good picture is

1271
01:02:32.159 --> 01:02:35.079
<v Speaker 2>just knowing how to use your tools well, right, And

1272
01:02:35.400 --> 01:02:38.920
<v Speaker 2>stuff plus doesn't measure that, right, man. I know they

1273
01:02:38.920 --> 01:02:41.119
<v Speaker 2>try to do like location plus and all stuff. But

1274
01:02:41.199 --> 01:02:44.920
<v Speaker 2>is there sequence plus? Is there? Yeah, knowing your hitter

1275
01:02:45.679 --> 01:02:47.440
<v Speaker 2>well plus like I don't know.

1276
01:02:47.400 --> 01:02:49.360
<v Speaker 3>Well And one of the things that I find so

1277
01:02:49.480 --> 01:02:52.400
<v Speaker 3>interesting about this and again it's a small sample that

1278
01:02:52.440 --> 01:02:54.440
<v Speaker 3>we have at the big league level, but we've got

1279
01:02:54.559 --> 01:02:58.639
<v Speaker 3>the stuff plus saying that Herder's two seem his most

1280
01:02:58.679 --> 01:03:02.679
<v Speaker 3>thrown pitch is a eighty eight, which is very bad,

1281
01:03:02.840 --> 01:03:06.039
<v Speaker 3>Like that's not good for for a fastball. And yet

1282
01:03:06.239 --> 01:03:09.800
<v Speaker 3>Fangrafts also puts the run value on a particular pitch,

1283
01:03:10.079 --> 01:03:13.079
<v Speaker 3>So how many runs above average has that pitch been worth?

1284
01:03:13.239 --> 01:03:16.519
<v Speaker 3>His run value for his sinker so far this year

1285
01:03:16.719 --> 01:03:21.559
<v Speaker 3>is six point nine. That nice, Yeah, that is nice.

1286
01:03:21.800 --> 01:03:25.840
<v Speaker 3>And give me a second, because that like is I'm

1287
01:03:25.840 --> 01:03:29.239
<v Speaker 3>fairly sure, wildly good, like it.

1288
01:03:29.119 --> 01:03:32.039
<v Speaker 2>Is performing really well.

1289
01:03:32.239 --> 01:03:35.760
<v Speaker 3>Yes, like this is a terrible pitch and is up

1290
01:03:35.760 --> 01:03:39.119
<v Speaker 3>there pitch is up there with one of like the

1291
01:03:39.280 --> 01:03:40.760
<v Speaker 3>very best pitches.

1292
01:03:41.320 --> 01:03:43.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, you know, Sarahs, I don't you know

1293
01:03:43.840 --> 01:03:45.960
<v Speaker 2>I have any sort of relationship with him. I wanted

1294
01:03:45.960 --> 01:03:48.800
<v Speaker 2>to ask him just recently, like is there a commonality?

1295
01:03:48.880 --> 01:03:51.920
<v Speaker 2>Does he notice things that like when you're looking at

1296
01:03:51.920 --> 01:03:55.119
<v Speaker 2>the difference of performance of a pitch versus it's stuff plus,

1297
01:03:55.159 --> 01:03:58.519
<v Speaker 2>like what those pitches that are outperforming, there's stuff plus,

1298
01:03:58.559 --> 01:04:00.559
<v Speaker 2>like what do you what do you see there? What

1299
01:04:00.679 --> 01:04:03.840
<v Speaker 2>are their commonalities? Is there a theme going on with

1300
01:04:03.960 --> 01:04:06.719
<v Speaker 2>pictures that are outperforming, so to speak?

1301
01:04:06.920 --> 01:04:11.199
<v Speaker 3>So so I just went to the Fangraft's leader board

1302
01:04:11.239 --> 01:04:14.960
<v Speaker 3>and looked at the most valuable sinkers over the course

1303
01:04:15.000 --> 01:04:17.159
<v Speaker 3>of this year. And this is this is not a

1304
01:04:17.239 --> 01:04:19.880
<v Speaker 3>rate based metric, right, this is a counting stat So

1305
01:04:20.079 --> 01:04:23.079
<v Speaker 3>the more of them that you throw that accrue positive values.

1306
01:04:23.159 --> 01:04:25.199
<v Speaker 3>So a lot of the guys on this list have

1307
01:04:25.400 --> 01:04:26.000
<v Speaker 3>thrown a.

1308
01:04:25.920 --> 01:04:26.480
<v Speaker 4>Lot of innings.

1309
01:04:26.519 --> 01:04:28.679
<v Speaker 3>Number one on the list, Paul Skeins nineteen.

1310
01:04:29.000 --> 01:04:29.559
<v Speaker 4>That's a lot.

1311
01:04:29.639 --> 01:04:31.599
<v Speaker 3>He's also thrown one hundred and twenty innings. Number two

1312
01:04:31.599 --> 01:04:34.800
<v Speaker 3>on the list, Logan Web seventeen point five. Seems like

1313
01:04:34.800 --> 01:04:37.719
<v Speaker 3>those are two pretty good fastballs. Jose Soriano is way

1314
01:04:37.760 --> 01:04:41.599
<v Speaker 3>up there, which I think is interesting. Number four Franbervaldez seventeen,

1315
01:04:42.039 --> 01:04:45.639
<v Speaker 3>Zach Wheeler sixteen point eight, Number seven George Kirby eleven

1316
01:04:45.639 --> 01:04:47.960
<v Speaker 3>point eight. You get the picture, right, This is like

1317
01:04:48.039 --> 01:04:50.639
<v Speaker 3>the volume and these are guys with great sinkers, great

1318
01:04:50.639 --> 01:04:53.400
<v Speaker 3>commands that are really making it work well. Brent Herder

1319
01:04:53.639 --> 01:04:56.760
<v Speaker 3>in thirty eight and two thirds innings is twenty fourth

1320
01:04:56.800 --> 01:04:59.960
<v Speaker 3>on this list at six point nine. His sinker has

1321
01:05:00.000 --> 01:05:04.000
<v Speaker 3>it has been as value valuable as Errek Scoobles, and

1322
01:05:04.079 --> 01:05:08.199
<v Speaker 3>Trek Scuoble has thrown about five times as many innings. Now,

1323
01:05:08.559 --> 01:05:11.280
<v Speaker 3>of course he probably hasn't thrown five times as many sinkers.

1324
01:05:11.280 --> 01:05:14.440
<v Speaker 3>They are slightly different pictures. But that is like kind

1325
01:05:14.519 --> 01:05:17.400
<v Speaker 3>of astonishing to me that in thirty eight and two

1326
01:05:17.400 --> 01:05:21.639
<v Speaker 3>thirds innings, this quote unquote bad pitch is either being

1327
01:05:21.719 --> 01:05:25.880
<v Speaker 3>commanded so incredibly well that it's actually really good, which

1328
01:05:26.079 --> 01:05:28.639
<v Speaker 3>you know, the stuff plus models do give him some

1329
01:05:28.760 --> 01:05:31.920
<v Speaker 3>credit for exceptional command of all of his pitches, really

1330
01:05:32.000 --> 01:05:35.199
<v Speaker 3>and do that. Obviously, bolster'ses overall pitching plus thing. But

1331
01:05:35.559 --> 01:05:38.079
<v Speaker 3>it's just a really interesting case study that I think

1332
01:05:38.159 --> 01:05:41.760
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's missing something about that pitch, and certainly the

1333
01:05:41.800 --> 01:05:44.719
<v Speaker 3>command I think is one of the real positives that

1334
01:05:44.719 --> 01:05:45.840
<v Speaker 3>we're seeing from Herder.

1335
01:05:46.000 --> 01:05:49.159
<v Speaker 2>You're geeking out on Herder here and going on like,

1336
01:05:49.400 --> 01:05:52.320
<v Speaker 2>I think I accomplished my goal of the year, Matt.

1337
01:05:52.400 --> 01:05:55.880
<v Speaker 2>You finally are getting it. You're finally coming to the

1338
01:05:55.960 --> 01:05:59.880
<v Speaker 2>right side pictures. That's where it's at. Matt pictures are better.

1339
01:06:00.079 --> 01:06:02.760
<v Speaker 3>It's certainly it certainly as fun when you hit on

1340
01:06:02.800 --> 01:06:04.559
<v Speaker 3>somebody as as exciting as this.

1341
01:06:05.000 --> 01:06:06.599
<v Speaker 4>Uh and and.

1342
01:06:06.599 --> 01:06:09.239
<v Speaker 3>We'll take our victory lap while it's still hot and

1343
01:06:09.320 --> 01:06:10.480
<v Speaker 3>fresh out the kitchen.

1344
01:06:10.559 --> 01:06:13.000
<v Speaker 4>We don't need to wait for I'm gonna roll that

1345
01:06:13.039 --> 01:06:13.480
<v Speaker 4>body in.

1346
01:06:13.719 --> 01:06:16.199
<v Speaker 2>So you may have won the battle, my friend, but

1347
01:06:16.679 --> 01:06:18.480
<v Speaker 2>I won the war.

1348
01:06:19.760 --> 01:06:22.400
<v Speaker 4>If you say so, If you say so, well.

1349
01:06:22.280 --> 01:06:25.000
<v Speaker 2>Matt, I think I want to be done with twenty

1350
01:06:25.079 --> 01:06:25.599
<v Speaker 2>twenty four.

1351
01:06:25.760 --> 01:06:27.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, you got to root my couple of teams that

1352
01:06:27.519 --> 01:06:30.119
<v Speaker 3>are still alive. I've still got a couple of championship hopes.

1353
01:06:30.360 --> 01:06:32.760
<v Speaker 3>Good look there and hoping, hoping it works out.

1354
01:06:32.960 --> 01:06:35.000
<v Speaker 2>Hope you do. I'm to say this, it was really hard.

1355
01:06:35.320 --> 01:06:37.559
<v Speaker 2>I wanted to talk about some guys I've been watching

1356
01:06:37.760 --> 01:06:40.199
<v Speaker 2>lately so badly right now, So we have to turn

1357
01:06:40.280 --> 01:06:43.599
<v Speaker 2>off these microphones until I guess, the off season, until

1358
01:06:43.639 --> 01:06:47.079
<v Speaker 2>we're ready to get into that and and do next year. Matt,

1359
01:06:47.400 --> 01:06:48.400
<v Speaker 2>Is that is that cool?

1360
01:06:48.440 --> 01:06:49.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, buddy, and that's cool.

1361
01:06:49.960 --> 01:06:51.840
<v Speaker 3>I'll have some time off of work coming up.

1362
01:06:52.079 --> 01:06:53.920
<v Speaker 4>I don't know how much in minor.

1363
01:06:53.880 --> 01:06:55.960
<v Speaker 3>League baseball I'm gonna be able to get in, but

1364
01:06:56.639 --> 01:06:58.960
<v Speaker 3>I'll do my best. I'll start working through my list,

1365
01:06:59.000 --> 01:07:00.599
<v Speaker 3>and yeah, we'll work on it.

1366
01:07:00.679 --> 01:07:02.559
<v Speaker 2>You have the title to defend, now, don't you.

1367
01:07:02.840 --> 01:07:06.960
<v Speaker 3>I do, I do, And like you, I'll just keep

1368
01:07:07.000 --> 01:07:09.840
<v Speaker 3>pointing to the like two successes that actually work out

1369
01:07:09.920 --> 01:07:12.360
<v Speaker 3>and say, like, man, look at how good I am

1370
01:07:12.440 --> 01:07:15.719
<v Speaker 3>at this, Like too out of every hundred turn into

1371
01:07:15.800 --> 01:07:16.440
<v Speaker 3>something real.

1372
01:07:16.840 --> 01:07:19.519
<v Speaker 2>I know, look at me. Well, I think that'll do

1373
01:07:19.559 --> 01:07:21.880
<v Speaker 2>it for the year. If you've been following along, you've

1374
01:07:21.880 --> 01:07:24.880
<v Speaker 2>been listening, we appreciate it. I've had some fun, I've

1375
01:07:24.920 --> 01:07:27.599
<v Speaker 2>learned a lot from Nat. Nat, thanks for joining me

1376
01:07:27.639 --> 01:07:30.679
<v Speaker 2>this year. I hope it wasn't too painful for you.

1377
01:07:30.960 --> 01:07:31.639
<v Speaker 4>You bet, buddy.

1378
01:07:31.639 --> 01:07:35.119
<v Speaker 3>This has been a real pleasure and thanks to our fans.

1379
01:07:35.159 --> 01:07:36.360
<v Speaker 4>We love hearing from you.

1380
01:07:36.440 --> 01:07:39.440
<v Speaker 3>And even I was just looking at some guys roster

1381
01:07:40.000 --> 01:07:42.039
<v Speaker 3>today is asking for some help in the Dynasty. I

1382
01:07:42.039 --> 01:07:44.920
<v Speaker 3>got Discord and I was like, oh, man, either this

1383
01:07:44.960 --> 01:07:48.000
<v Speaker 3>guy's a B side listener or he's just got some

1384
01:07:48.039 --> 01:07:49.599
<v Speaker 3>of the same ideas we do, because he had so

1385
01:07:49.679 --> 01:07:53.440
<v Speaker 3>many interesting B side cats in his Deep Deep Dynasty league.

1386
01:07:53.480 --> 01:07:55.880
<v Speaker 3>So we always appreciate hearing the shout outs. Come join

1387
01:07:55.960 --> 01:07:58.320
<v Speaker 3>us in the Dynasty. Discord reach out to Nate on

1388
01:07:58.360 --> 01:08:00.960
<v Speaker 3>Twitter and it'll decide whether you're cool enough to talk

1389
01:08:01.000 --> 01:08:02.960
<v Speaker 3>to me, and then he can pass along my my

1390
01:08:03.079 --> 01:08:07.559
<v Speaker 3>info if you are otherwise. Happy, happy mudding, everybody.

1391
01:08:07.599 --> 01:08:08.800
<v Speaker 4>This has been a real pleasure.

1392
01:08:09.000 --> 01:08:11.679
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we'll, we say, next year, but it'll probably just

1393
01:08:11.679 --> 01:08:15.880
<v Speaker 2>be like a month we started off last October right

1394
01:08:15.960 --> 01:08:19.079
<v Speaker 2>end of last Octobers won't be too much longer. We'll

1395
01:08:19.119 --> 01:08:21.520
<v Speaker 2>have some at least to us, some fresh names to

1396
01:08:22.079 --> 01:08:25.600
<v Speaker 2>throw around and start thinking about twenty twenty five b

1397
01:08:25.760 --> 01:08:26.439
<v Speaker 2>siders to be.

1398
01:08:26.920 --> 01:08:30.079
<v Speaker 3>We'll maybe convince ourselves that the twenty twenty four Minor

1399
01:08:30.119 --> 01:08:33.279
<v Speaker 3>League season wasn't all awful like we like we thought

1400
01:08:33.279 --> 01:08:34.439
<v Speaker 3>it at some point this year.

1401
01:08:34.640 --> 01:08:37.520
<v Speaker 2>No, I've yeah, all right, I gotta save it. All right,

1402
01:08:37.520 --> 01:08:40.520
<v Speaker 2>We'll let Chicago Farmer take us out. Be well. Touch

1403
01:08:40.560 --> 01:08:41.239
<v Speaker 2>to you next year.

1404
01:08:42.119 --> 01:08:48.159
<v Speaker 1>Later, five miles an hour, riding too his head. We

1405
01:08:48.279 --> 01:08:53.159
<v Speaker 1>have them down first but the umbonius face. And now

1406
01:08:53.199 --> 01:08:57.319
<v Speaker 1>on the very next pitch he up and stole second

1407
01:08:57.399 --> 01:09:08.520
<v Speaker 1>things with greatst speed. He wasn't born, He had the dead, Yes,

1408
01:09:09.720 --> 01:09:10.439
<v Speaker 1>uniforn
