Speaker 1: Not five miles an hour riding too his head. He
Speaker 1: hopping down first with the mount Bonius face, and on
Speaker 1: the very next pitch he up and stole second phase
Speaker 1: with gradest be he wasn't born, he had the yes
Speaker 1: uniforn Well.
Speaker 2: Welcome to episode forty one of the Prospect B Sides Podcast,
Speaker 2: the season finale. I am Nate Handy, joining me as
Speaker 2: always the late rookie because he was late tonight, NAT's man,
Speaker 2: how are you?
Speaker 3: I am fantastic? I can't wait to review my awesome
Speaker 3: B Siders. You know, we've touched on a lot of
Speaker 3: these guys throughout the year, but it's fun to look
Speaker 3: them all on one leaderboard and see the progress throughout
Speaker 3: the year. And while there are definitely some flops, mostly
Speaker 3: on Nate's side, Miner really good. But it's fun to
Speaker 3: just review. And I'm pumped to do a recap episode
Speaker 3: with you, buddy. How are you this fine Monday?
Speaker 2: Good man? The Rockets just won walk off. They gotta
Speaker 2: they gotta win five of their last eleven to not
Speaker 2: lose one hundred. Feeling pretty optimistic about them coming down
Speaker 2: the stretch here, Matt, their biggest bugaboo is relief pitching,
Speaker 2: and I'm sure no one's paying attention but their young
Speaker 2: bullpen arms. This last month, the guys who have come
Speaker 2: up have been pretty good, and you know, relief pitching
Speaker 2: is what it is, but at least it's some hope, Matt.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even I saw Kimley has been pretty good
Speaker 3: at play yeah, close lockdown some games. I think he
Speaker 3: want to match up against me the other day, and
Speaker 3: so I have hate in my heart for him.
Speaker 2: But you know, Elverson's pumping a hundred and putting it
Speaker 2: on the black, and Ve's been good, and Hill's getting
Speaker 2: his run, Like, yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing how
Speaker 2: that looks next year. This episode, Matt, we're gonna review
Speaker 2: our B siders from from the year. I was thinking
Speaker 2: maybe we'll talk a little bit about I don't know,
Speaker 2: lessons learned from the season, things of that nature. Put
Speaker 2: a bow on twenty twenty four, and continue to mud
Speaker 2: along and get ready for our off season selection shows.
Speaker 2: Does that sound good to you?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: It does imply that we're capable of learning and reflecting,
Speaker 3: And as I have continued to beat the drum, we're
Speaker 3: not really about that here.
Speaker 4: At least on this side of the B side.
Speaker 3: Podcasting table. I'm just about of hyping my calls that
Speaker 3: were good, ignoring my calls that were bad, of which
Speaker 3: there were none, let me remind you and yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: So I don't know if I need.
Speaker 4: To learn anything.
Speaker 3: I'm pretty good at this, Saint let me tell you.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll talk about that a little bit. But Matt,
Speaker 2: last episode, that was pretty fun. It's been a minute
Speaker 2: I think since we recorded. Having Connor on was nice
Speaker 2: and I wanted it was really hard for me to
Speaker 2: not talk about and ask more about calling games. I
Speaker 2: feel like if he comes back on, I might just
Speaker 2: ask him a bazillion questions about what it's like calling games.
Speaker 4: Should he's good at it. He thinks about it a lot.
Speaker 3: And that's actually something that we've talked about over the
Speaker 3: years with as he took over and started putting his
Speaker 3: stamp on pitching staffs. One thing that I think that
Speaker 3: I was a little ahead of the kind of major
Speaker 3: league game on just from my own experience, was that
Speaker 3: the baseline for pitchers should be that you throw each
Speaker 3: of your pitches equally. So if you're a three pitch pitcher,
Speaker 3: you should throw each of them about thirty three percent
Speaker 3: of the time.
Speaker 4: And then you.
Speaker 3: Ratchet up and down based on kind of how good
Speaker 3: each of those pitches are. And that's I think something
Speaker 3: that he has incorporated into his pitch mix calling for
Speaker 3: his pitchers. That's actually something they developed they work on
Speaker 3: in the fall, is each pitch gets equal treatment until
Speaker 3: they prove that one is better than the other, or
Speaker 3: that they can't command one, or that one is actually
Speaker 3: really a terrible pitch. And it gets guys comfortable throwing
Speaker 3: pitches in any count in really mixing things up. And
Speaker 3: I think that it's a way that hitters still are
Speaker 3: on the back foot because still from a young age,
Speaker 3: everyone's taught to hit the fastball. I know that in
Speaker 3: my career I was way better at hitting the fastball.
Speaker 3: In my four years in college three years in college
Speaker 3: summer ball, I only ever hit home runs against a fastball,
Speaker 3: and yet people still kept throwing me fastballs. And I
Speaker 3: could hit the other pitches for singles and doubles, but
Speaker 3: really getting into one. For some reason about my swinging
Speaker 3: like fastballs was the only thing that could do it,
Speaker 3: and people just still kept throwing them to me. But
Speaker 3: I think I would have been way worse if they
Speaker 3: mixed more. I kind of think that's true of most hitters,
Speaker 3: and that pitchers still throw fastballs too much. You should
Speaker 3: mix more. So that's something that he's incorporated into his
Speaker 3: pitch calling. I take some small amount of credit. Most
Speaker 3: of it is his own intuition and scouting reports and stuff,
Speaker 3: but yeah, that is that's one piece about the pitch
Speaker 3: calling game that I know that he has done quite
Speaker 3: a bit more of of late.
Speaker 2: Nice. Well, that seems prudent to me, starting off throwing
Speaker 2: everything equally and going from there. How have your league's gone?
Speaker 2: How is your year as a whole as a fantasy player.
Speaker 3: It's not over, but it is looking like I'd say
Speaker 3: a B minus here for me, I'm in one final,
Speaker 3: three semi finals, and got bounced in playoffs in four
Speaker 3: other leagues. So like solid, I'd say, if I win
Speaker 3: this thirty team or that I've talked a fair amount,
Speaker 3: that's my favorite league. It's my thirty team daily points league.
Speaker 3: If I win that one, it would make up for
Speaker 3: some of the other sort of middling outcomes that I
Speaker 3: had still in the mix to bring that grade up
Speaker 3: a bit. But I'm not sure I'm sitting well in
Speaker 3: two of the other semi finals, and I'd say one
Speaker 3: of the finals I have a decent shot in. That's
Speaker 3: a points league that I play with in a couple
Speaker 3: of the guys from the Dynasty dugout I got to
Speaker 3: I have a pretty good shot in that final too.
Speaker 2: So in Dynasty, I won no championships this season, which
Speaker 2: is unfortunate, but money wise, one more money than I
Speaker 2: paid to play. So hey, that's good in that sense.
Speaker 2: I guess that's a win. But oh, in all, feeling good,
Speaker 2: not great about my Dynasty performance this season. But I
Speaker 2: wanted to ask you, Matt, a common theme across my
Speaker 2: leagues that I found this year was relief pitching, not
Speaker 2: doing well as a whole, identifying guys making trades to
Speaker 2: try to help me in those categories. And I feel like,
Speaker 2: especially in like thirty teamers or maybe only leagues, you know,
Speaker 2: the best teams will have a good lineup, they'll have
Speaker 2: good pitching, and like, the way you can get an
Speaker 2: edge or separate yourself is with your relief pitching. I think,
Speaker 2: And the sort of these teams that I Dynasty teams,
Speaker 2: they have of all kind of been built up. You know,
Speaker 2: I didn't like take over a great team or draft
Speaker 2: a great team out the gates. So I've been building
Speaker 2: these teams up over the years with the idea that, hey,
Speaker 2: when I get there, when I need to, I will
Speaker 2: just trade for some relief pitching. And one of those
Speaker 2: trades I made with you this year, and I paid
Speaker 2: way too much. And I know relief pitching is so volatile,
Speaker 2: But admittedly I don't spend a lot of time prospecting
Speaker 2: relief pitching. You did this year. You picked out some names,
Speaker 2: some good ones debuted this year. They probably haven't become
Speaker 2: fantasy winners yet anyways. But I don't know, man, you
Speaker 2: got any advice for someone like me trying to be
Speaker 2: better at relief pitching in dynasty leagues.
Speaker 3: I think there's a couple of things that I look to.
Speaker 3: One is small sample changes happen really fast with relievers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I send you a gazillion great pitching starting pitching
Speaker 2: prospects for Craig fucking Kim.
Speaker 3: Right, Well, that's not the kind of guy that I'm
Speaker 3: talking about. Like Kimberl is a different type of relief
Speaker 3: asset in it. At the time, he was fairly well
Speaker 3: locked in as a situational He was valuable because of
Speaker 3: the situation that he was in, and he had been
Speaker 3: fine as a pitcher, you know what I mean up to.
Speaker 2: The point that I traded you for him. He was
Speaker 2: like the top scoring relief pitcher in our league at
Speaker 2: that juncture, or.
Speaker 3: Right right, he was, but again that was because he
Speaker 3: was put in situations right he was the locked in
Speaker 3: closer for the team with the most wins in baseball,
Speaker 3: so he had the most opportunities to get saves, and
Speaker 3: often they were like three run leads, which is a
Speaker 3: super easy thing to do, so you don't have to
Speaker 3: pitch that well to convert that kind of a save.
Speaker 3: And he was doing okay, but if you looked at
Speaker 3: his K minus BB, if you looked at some of
Speaker 3: the other situational things like his walk rate had ticked up,
Speaker 3: he was getting fewer with there was signs that all
Speaker 3: was not well, and it kind of he wasn't earning
Speaker 3: all of those points.
Speaker 2: So now, are you on Are you on the air,
Speaker 2: so to speak, right now, admitting that you sold me
Speaker 2: a lemon? That's the kind of trade friend you are.
Speaker 3: It's it's I'm not admitting that I sold you the
Speaker 3: second best reliever in that league. What I'm saying is
Speaker 3: that you've got to understand why he was so valuable,
Speaker 3: and a lot of the reliever game is trying to
Speaker 3: find either the guys that really are locked into their position,
Speaker 3: and Kimberle has been that kind of a guy.
Speaker 4: Like I kind of expected him.
Speaker 3: To just keep holding the closer role even if he
Speaker 3: wasn't great, but because he was going to get opportunities
Speaker 3: he had quote unquote, he's a Hall of Fame closer.
Speaker 3: He's done it for a ton of teams and for
Speaker 3: so many years now, and then he would just keep
Speaker 3: racking up mediocre innings, but he was going to keep
Speaker 3: getting saves, and our league rewards that that's value, right,
Speaker 3: So that is a kind of value that often you
Speaker 3: can get for relatively, you know, not inexpensive, but it's
Speaker 3: worth paying that price if you're a contending team. I
Speaker 3: did the same in our league the show. I bought
Speaker 3: a few relievers because I was a playoff team and
Speaker 3: I was like, you know, my relievers for most of
Speaker 3: the year were kind of shitty, and so I bought
Speaker 3: a couple that were They weren't kind of kimberrel esk
Speaker 3: in terms of their role, but they were decent back
Speaker 3: end relievers that were going to get me more points
Speaker 3: than the guys that I had. That's the other kind
Speaker 3: of guy. So there's the guys that like are valuable,
Speaker 3: even if they themselves aren't that good of a reliever,
Speaker 3: they are kind of locked into their role and they're
Speaker 3: going to give you value there. I mean a role
Speaker 3: as Chapman has been this in the last couple of years.
Speaker 3: He's having a bit of a resurgence this year, but
Speaker 3: I'd say the two years before that his stuff was down.
Speaker 3: He wasn't getting the whiffs, he was walking guys, but
Speaker 3: people were running him out in the ninth in and
Speaker 3: that was valuable, and you wanted that on your Dynasty team,
Speaker 3: especially as a competitor. You didn't really want to like
Speaker 3: carry that all year, but coming up to the end
Speaker 3: of the season, like, let's roll with our best guys
Speaker 3: and paying a slight premium for those things makes sense.
Speaker 3: It's also one of the reasons why when I talk
Speaker 3: to guys that are trying to rebuild, I tell them
Speaker 3: don't ignore closers or set up guys that might get it,
Speaker 3: because those turn into assets that like in that in
Speaker 3: the WGM League where we made that trade. My team
Speaker 3: fell apart because of some big injuries early on, and
Speaker 3: who did I try.
Speaker 4: And go and get eighth inning guys, Guys that.
Speaker 3: Were I knew that those were going to be some
Speaker 3: of my best trade value assets at the deadline because
Speaker 3: my team wasn't going to need them.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought that up because I want I
Speaker 2: wanted to note. I wanted to say, Man, if you're
Speaker 2: a rebuilding team, at least in my experience across my
Speaker 2: five dynasty leagues, to me, that would be the most
Speaker 2: that seems like the most profitable demographic or place to go,
Speaker 2: gobble up that nevers man. And then when the contending
Speaker 2: teams get to the trade deadline, at least if they're
Speaker 2: like us, I kind of pay you wait too much
Speaker 2: for them?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that that an injured starter. So the other one
Speaker 3: that you can often buy for cheap, hold on your roster,
Speaker 3: on your bench because you don't need them for the points.
Speaker 4: And then when they come back healthy, you try and.
Speaker 2: Screw the maybe bat in the lowers. Yep, housing those
Speaker 2: guys get that, I say, yep.
Speaker 3: I'm normally pretty skeptical of small sample size performances like that.
Speaker 3: It shouldn't change your underlying opinion of folks too much.
Speaker 3: I think relievers might be where I change my mind there,
Speaker 3: and I do pay some closer attention, especially kind of
Speaker 3: early in the season, middle of the season to rolling,
Speaker 3: you know, fourteen game k minus bbs, because managers front
Speaker 3: offices even they make the same kind of fallacies that
Speaker 3: we do, and that they like the hot hand, they
Speaker 3: like the performance of the guy, and sometimes that means
Speaker 3: a real uptick in talent level or talent level for
Speaker 3: that season. I think like Tyler Matsek in twenty twenty
Speaker 3: one just all of a sudden reverted back to elite
Speaker 3: reliever ways, even though he'd been hurt or bad for
Speaker 3: like the previous five years before that. But pretty quickly
Speaker 3: he was like running thirty five percent strikeout rates and
Speaker 3: wasn't walking to anybody, and you're like, oh, this is
Speaker 3: an elite back end reliever, and he helped win the
Speaker 3: Braves of World Series. Those kind of guys, in small samples,
Speaker 3: they earned the trust of their manager to be in
Speaker 3: those hold situations, those late in inning situations, and then
Speaker 3: maybe set up men to closer promotions down the line.
Speaker 3: And so trying to find a couple of those guys
Speaker 3: early on that are free, like they're going to be free,
Speaker 3: just like the Cade Smiths of the world. Like he
Speaker 3: was one that popped out of nowhere, wasn't on any
Speaker 3: dynasty list, nobody was talking about him.
Speaker 4: And Miah and Jeremiah Strada another one.
Speaker 3: Like there's a ton of these guys every year that
Speaker 3: come out of nowhere and then are useful. But that
Speaker 3: also changes over time.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Sorry, that's a point that I think I may
Speaker 2: have failed, so to speak, or could be much better
Speaker 2: at as being on top, you know, first of the draw,
Speaker 2: getting Jeremiah Strata and those types. I need to pay
Speaker 2: more attention to that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's a thing that's a little bit tricky
Speaker 3: because these are super small samples where all of a
Speaker 3: sudden it looks like, oh, a guy maybe found a
Speaker 3: new gear and is the next James Krinchak who came
Speaker 3: out of nowhere a couple of years ago, was striking
Speaker 3: everybody out, was still walking people, but nobody could get
Speaker 3: any hits off of him. And he was an elite
Speaker 3: setup guy for like a year and a half and
Speaker 3: he's been really bad since then, and isn't really rosterble
Speaker 3: in Dynasty anymore.
Speaker 4: I think I have him on one of my teams.
Speaker 3: Like it's that kind of guy that can pop up
Speaker 3: out of nowhere, be really useful for a year and
Speaker 3: a half, and then kind of flame out and be
Speaker 3: not very useful.
Speaker 2: I also watching that guy Matt, like yeah, his anxiety
Speaker 2: just like went through the TV screen and like got
Speaker 2: inside of me.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I feel that relievers are tricky, and your format
Speaker 3: really matters a lot too in this league that I'm in,
Speaker 3: the ALCSN that I mentioned just before or maybe before
Speaker 3: we started recording, Like, I have four solid relievers, and
Speaker 3: that's like the most you want in this format. But
Speaker 3: what some of the other really good teams do is
Speaker 3: they really rotate through They keep maybe one or two
Speaker 3: of their reliever spots open, and they just stream relievers
Speaker 3: to whoever might pop up that day, who might like
Speaker 3: pitch that day. And I think that that's something that
Speaker 3: I might have to do this week that I'm kind
Speaker 3: of bummed about, because my relievers have been some of
Speaker 3: the better relievers throughout the course of the year. But
Speaker 3: it's really about the roster spot in this sprint to
Speaker 3: the finish, where I've got Ryan Presley who's been seventh
Speaker 3: or eighth innning guy for Houston and really effective last
Speaker 3: few years. Jason Foley, who's a closer for Detroit and
Speaker 3: has righted the ship after being a little shaky in
Speaker 3: the middle of the year. David Robertson, who Loki is
Speaker 3: one of the best relievers of all time and that's
Speaker 3: not a hyperbole and is back to having a great
Speaker 3: season with Texas, and then Kyle Finnegan, the Nats closer,
Speaker 3: who all have been good throughout the year.
Speaker 4: They've gotten me to this point.
Speaker 3: But I'm probably being suboptimal and like clinging to my
Speaker 3: pearls a little bit by keeping all four of them,
Speaker 3: and I should probably cut one of them loose and
Speaker 3: try and stream that spot because in that form, in
Speaker 3: this format, that can get rewarded. So that's the other
Speaker 3: part of always knowing your format and what's useful a
Speaker 3: couple of formats that we play. You need eight relievers
Speaker 3: to be a really good team to really eke out
Speaker 3: the most points you can get every matchup. You need
Speaker 3: to be able to mix and match to make sure
Speaker 3: you've got a reliever who's hot and ready and likely
Speaker 3: to go each of those days. And that sikes work
Speaker 3: like that's a that's some deep diving to do. So,
Speaker 3: long story, long way of saying, each league is a
Speaker 3: little bit different. Some really reward the role, some really
Speaker 3: reward the skill, and some just really reward availability, and
Speaker 3: each of those things are a little bit different that
Speaker 3: you're looking for.
Speaker 2: Man, I think, you know what might be useful just
Speaker 2: a relief pitching only podcast.
Speaker 3: Should we convert that is really niche?
Speaker 2: Should we convert to a relief pitching only podcast.
Speaker 3: I know we already have only like ten subscribers.
Speaker 4: I just don't know if that's.
Speaker 2: Five of them will hang around maybe, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think another air that I made in one league,
Speaker 2: in a Roto league that I've been horrible since I
Speaker 2: joined took over a team is I had like I
Speaker 2: was good like the first month of the season. So
Speaker 2: I was like, all right, this is it, you know,
Speaker 2: we finally made it, and I traded off some good
Speaker 2: prospects whatever it was for basically a bullpen for a
Speaker 2: whole bullpen, and then my team just immediately went to
Speaker 2: shit and I'm in last place, and so it was
Speaker 2: like getting a little too excited a little too early,
Speaker 2: I think. So I'm going to try to be mindful
Speaker 2: of that moving forward as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got to take the long view in the
Speaker 3: rotor leagues for sure, And that's why I'm a big
Speaker 3: fan of the spreadsheets for those leaks, just because we
Speaker 3: can get caught up and like, oh, all our guys,
Speaker 3: you're going to perform our projections. But that just is
Speaker 3: never true. You gotta think people are going to revert
Speaker 3: to the mean, and you want to take advantage of
Speaker 3: the hot starts and bolster where your team is going
Speaker 3: to be rather than where it is today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Matt, enough of this relief pitching mumbo jumbo.
Speaker 2: Let's get into the good stuff here. Let's let's review
Speaker 2: our B siding season. Let's do it well. I mean,
Speaker 2: clearly I was superior, but I think you did pretty well, Matt.
Speaker 2: I think you did pretty.
Speaker 4: Hang On, you can't.
Speaker 3: You can't just do that at the outset clearly superior,
Speaker 3: like I crush you in this Well.
Speaker 2: Hang on, hang on, Let's just back up here. Let's
Speaker 2: maybe explain a little bit. If someone's listening, who wasn't
Speaker 2: listening the year ago, which is probably anyone listening last October.
Speaker 2: I think it was we started our B side selection process,
Speaker 2: so to speak, reviewed a bunch of guys, watch guys
Speaker 2: under the radar, rosterd and zero to two percent of
Speaker 2: leagues at the time who we think might one one pitcher,
Speaker 2: one hitter from every organization, someone we wanted to throw
Speaker 2: out there that might gain popularity this the coming season.
Speaker 2: And then we did a little competitive draft to start
Speaker 2: things off. I think we each picked nine hitters. Then
Speaker 2: we did a picture draft where we each picked five
Speaker 2: guys out of our ultimate or whole group of selections.
Speaker 2: And Matt, I gotta say, the draft we didn't do very.
Speaker 3: Well, dude, No, we really didn't.
Speaker 2: Like so you know, again, sometimes when you're when you're right,
Speaker 2: you're wrong. Sometimes when you're wrong, you're right. I think
Speaker 2: as a whole, our whole selections were pretty decent. I
Speaker 2: think we had some bangers. I think we had some
Speaker 2: guys that I'm still very much interested in, even though
Speaker 2: the popularity might not be there yet. But our draft
Speaker 2: really was kind of poop.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, my hitters were pretty good, My pictures were awful.
Speaker 3: Your hitters were terrible except for one, And.
Speaker 2: My whole draft was pretty much terrible except for one.
Speaker 2: My hat in the draft was Charles McAdoo. We went
Speaker 2: up to ten percent and then nobody had drafted.
Speaker 4: Which got a strong co sign for me.
Speaker 2: By the way, true which I wanted to note. I
Speaker 2: don't know if you saw on the list that I
Speaker 2: put together here, but I believe there were five guys
Speaker 2: that we both selected the same. Four of them went off,
Speaker 2: one of them did not yet anyway, So if you're listening,
Speaker 2: we do this again this offseason. If Matt and I
Speaker 2: are both on a guy, there's a good chance his
Speaker 2: history says there's a good chance that that might be
Speaker 2: a real banger.
Speaker 3: Yeah, are n four really really speaks strongly to that.
Speaker 2: But man, I will say about my draft, though there's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
Speaker 2: there's still seven guys that I picked that I still
Speaker 2: was happy with their season. It wasn't quite the big
Speaker 2: breakout explosion that obviously I was trying to predict or
Speaker 2: trying to get to beat you in this competition. But
Speaker 2: there were some, you know, poopy picks, But as a whole,
Speaker 2: I think it was okay. Maybe it's just maybe next
Speaker 2: year is their year, and then you your best pick,
Speaker 2: just gaining percentage points wise, your best pick was Cjkafis
Speaker 2: and Drake Baldwin, who you you got lucky on because
Speaker 2: you just drafted him before I did. I was gonna
Speaker 2: draft Baldwin too.
Speaker 4: You never said that this is the pick.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna find the clip and I'm gonna edit and
Speaker 2: put it in here. Matt, I probably won't do that
Speaker 2: because that'll take But then Durban is up to five percent.
Speaker 2: Troy Johnson, he's at four percent right now. But like,
Speaker 2: wasn't he like at four percent when you picked him?
Speaker 2: So I don't know about that one. I wouldn't say
Speaker 2: that that was.
Speaker 4: I remember he was like he was a two or
Speaker 4: three percenter guy.
Speaker 2: I think I wouldn't say that was a successful pick,
Speaker 2: would you.
Speaker 4: No, I agree, yeah, I think it was at this point.
Speaker 3: And and and he he like one of the guys
Speaker 3: that's farther down the list. He and Blaine krim they
Speaker 3: both just were bad to start the year. When if
Speaker 3: they if they had flipped their seasons and had their
Speaker 3: second halfs in the first half, I think both would
Speaker 3: be in the bigs and both would have shot up.
Speaker 3: I mean Blaine Kremis, so he's down there at one percent,
Speaker 3: which is what I think he was when I picked him,
Speaker 3: but he just got written up in Baseball America as
Speaker 3: like Eli Ben Parratt, who who I think I've shouted
Speaker 3: on this pod before. He does great work. But he
Speaker 3: was like, this is one of my favorite guys, and
Speaker 3: I'm like, yes, Eli, Yes, that's exactly what I said
Speaker 3: last year and he ended up having a really good
Speaker 3: year overall, just never got the shout at the show
Speaker 3: that I thought he was going to get. Yeah, And
Speaker 3: that's kind of a commonality with a bunch of my
Speaker 3: picks that didn't really pan out. Like I picked some
Speaker 3: quad A type guys that I thought had opportunity in
Speaker 3: front of them and we're going to get some run
Speaker 3: and just never did, you know. And so that that's
Speaker 3: like Terso or Elys is like that, Troy Johnson's like that,
Speaker 3: Blaine Cram, Matt Crune, You're in Fernardo.
Speaker 2: I want to say, though, so just counting every percentage,
Speaker 2: just percentage points, your draft cumulative ownership is forty six
Speaker 2: percent right now, right just counting Does that make sense?
Speaker 2: Just calling it the point you got forty six points
Speaker 2: whereas my drafts was twenty two points. It might be different,
Speaker 2: and we can't do it because I don't have the
Speaker 2: percentages of when you selected them. If you did a difference,
Speaker 2: you know, subtracted last year's per roster rate from this year's.
Speaker 2: I have a feeling that your forty six percent won't
Speaker 2: be quite as high because I think, yeah.
Speaker 4: It would.
Speaker 3: It would definitely knock a few guys who they john
Speaker 3: said Johnson was like a three percent, maybe like zero one.
Speaker 2: Now, so still officially you are the draft champion of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4: I give it again.
Speaker 3: That's forty six points to twenty two points to Nate.
Speaker 3: That's like more than double I think.
Speaker 2: So just trying to tell you I would also, I mean,
Speaker 2: we'd be remissed if I didn't highlight that I am.
Speaker 2: I am mentoring you, I'm grooming you in in the
Speaker 2: B side game. Here, Matt and I set up a
Speaker 2: situation so that you could succeed and gain that confidence
Speaker 2: that you needed at the start of the year.
Speaker 3: You know, so you got to yourself to soothe the
Speaker 3: pains of the big old fat el you're taking eight.
Speaker 3: I know you have to do this in a lot
Speaker 3: of your dynasty leagues. So this comes to no surprise
Speaker 3: to me that you're trying to rationalize this, but it's
Speaker 3: ass whipping that the rookie put on you.
Speaker 2: All right, all right, so congrats Matt, you won the draft.
Speaker 2: But now let's look at the whole picture here. For
Speaker 2: some reason, you had a few more official B side
Speaker 2: selections than me. I think maybe because you picked a
Speaker 2: couple got I think the astros. You picked like two
Speaker 2: pictures or something, whatever it is, And then there were
Speaker 2: a few that we both selected the same player. Right,
Speaker 2: But adding that altogether, your fifty eight selections to my
Speaker 2: fifty six selections, you would be at one hundred and
Speaker 2: sixty percentage points. I would be at one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty nine percentage.
Speaker 3: What is that? Is that more for me? Again?
Speaker 2: Yeah, but let's just look at the top of these lists.
Speaker 2: Though you're like, you know, in gymnastics, you have a
Speaker 2: level of difficulty components to your score, right, I mean,
Speaker 2: it's not if I do a bunch of summersaults. If
Speaker 2: I do a bunch of summersaults, but I do them perfectly,
Speaker 2: Oh perfect ten summersaults. Congratulations. But you know, if I'm
Speaker 2: I don't know what's called double triple axle loop d
Speaker 2: loops flying and fIF twenty feet in the air, but
Speaker 2: I get like an eight, I don't do it perfectly
Speaker 2: like what was better? You know, there's a component of
Speaker 2: that here.
Speaker 3: I think, in what way we have the same rosters
Speaker 3: to choose for out?
Speaker 2: Okay, in this way, in this way, let's look top
Speaker 2: of our list right now, Matt. Your b side selection
Speaker 2: that is rostered in the most percentage of fan tracks
Speaker 2: leagues today is Brent Herder at twenty three percent, and
Speaker 2: going up mine is Logan Evans who is at twenty percent.
Speaker 2: Now rewind a year. What was brand Herder doing? What
Speaker 2: a Brand Herder do in twenty twenty three, chopping up
Speaker 2: double AM, chopping up double A. What was Logan Evans
Speaker 2: doing twenty twenty three debuting? He was in college and
Speaker 2: got a couple starts at the end of the year.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Right, So that's kind of how I'm trying to help
Speaker 2: myself feel better here, Matt. Okay, so just appease me
Speaker 2: a little bit.
Speaker 3: Well, I've said this for the whole year.
Speaker 4: You really do.
Speaker 3: Have a knack for looking at just a couple of
Speaker 3: starts of a guy and seeing something there. And I
Speaker 3: think this bears out in the biggest hits for your pictures,
Speaker 3: especially you know, you've got Logan Evans at twenty percent,
Speaker 3: Samuel Aldegary at eighteen percent, Jaden Hamm at twelve percent,
Speaker 3: Gary gil Hill that I still can't believe that's the
Speaker 3: same at ten percent.
Speaker 4: Those are all.
Speaker 3: All guys that we had had not a big look at,
Speaker 3: not a big sample, and you had said, hey, there's
Speaker 3: something pretty interesting here.
Speaker 4: Now, if you were really good at this, you would have.
Speaker 3: Grafted those pictures instead of Zach Germing, Rosario, Jared Andy,
Speaker 3: DJ McCary Party and Hamington Mendez. You know, I think
Speaker 3: you might have crushed me in the traffic, actually had
Speaker 3: some conviction.
Speaker 2: That is right, just that, just like and thank you
Speaker 2: for going there, because that is kind of what I
Speaker 2: wanted to get to. And and I foreshadowed this at
Speaker 2: the time, Matt, I was multiple times I said, we're
Speaker 2: gonna pick some good ones here. There's gonna be some bangers.
Speaker 2: But my money is on me ultimately picking the wrong
Speaker 2: ones when when it comes to the draft and who
Speaker 2: I'm going to prioritize prioritize is probably not going to
Speaker 2: be the real bangers. And that's how this b siding
Speaker 2: thing has has really gone at for the last you know,
Speaker 2: four years or whatever it is, I've been trying to
Speaker 2: do this sort of thing. So it's not a dud
Speaker 2: and it's not victory lapping here. I am not like
Speaker 2: saying I'm awesome, and I think I in a way,
Speaker 2: I actually kind of really suck at this. I find
Speaker 2: some find some guys, but don't prioritize them correctly.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's tricky, like I picked a bunch of
Speaker 3: these guys in the draft, and then I was in
Speaker 3: a Dynasty startup and tried to grab a bunch of
Speaker 3: them late. But I didn't grab all of these guys, like,
Speaker 3: I didn't grab all these ones that I thought were
Speaker 3: the better ones. It was definitely more of a mix.
Speaker 3: And I think I only ended up with like one
Speaker 3: share Drake Baldwin, whom I loved last year and and
Speaker 3: a lot of people liked more than most other people
Speaker 3: that were in Dynasty Baseball, But I'm still only ended
Speaker 3: up with one share.
Speaker 2: And a lot of that too, is just opportunity. You
Speaker 2: know what's happening at the draft table at the time,
Speaker 2: or on the waiver wire with your roster and stuff
Speaker 2: like that too. But let's look at your big your
Speaker 2: big hits, a Herder like we mentioned, who, by the way,
Speaker 2: has been awesome. He has been He's been killing it.
Speaker 4: What how many if it's like six or seven?
Speaker 3: I think if I get a little bit of time,
Speaker 3: this last couple of weeks has been pretty crazy on
Speaker 3: the home and work front here, But if I get
Speaker 3: a little bit of time, I'm actually gonna I've got
Speaker 3: a thesis to write up. Because our buddy Chris Clegg
Speaker 3: keeps pooh pooing Brant Herder because he quote unquote has
Speaker 3: a ninety one mile an hour fastball, and it's driving
Speaker 3: me a little battie because I think that brand Herder
Speaker 3: is showing us the some of the gaps in sort
Speaker 3: of your stuff plus analyses or your kind of fastball
Speaker 3: velocity only evaluations. And I actually think that there's a
Speaker 3: really really interesting case study here. So I've done some
Speaker 3: work on it. I've got a rough outline of a
Speaker 3: draft I just need to get in if if I
Speaker 3: want to do it right. I'm trying to like take
Speaker 3: some screen caps and stuff and all that shit takes
Speaker 3: me too much time, So yeah, I need I need
Speaker 3: to do that. But anyway, let's let's shelve him. But
Speaker 3: I'm I'm loving what I'm saying that a Herder.
Speaker 2: Yeah, your hits there. Herder twenty three percent, Cafus sixteen percent,
Speaker 2: Chandler Simpson at fourteen percent, Logan Henderson at twelve percent,
Speaker 2: Trick Baldwin at ten percent, Macdoo we both chose at
Speaker 2: ten percent. Well, we both chose Baldwin too, Oh Brooks.
Speaker 2: Baldwin is an nine percent. We both chose him.
Speaker 3: Durban would be a fair bit higher, but he missed
Speaker 3: so much time and ended up not getting a shot.
Speaker 2: And Neely, you like had a couple of relievers who
Speaker 2: have made like the bigs that were, you know, good calls.
Speaker 2: I think you've gained that well. And relief pictures are
Speaker 2: not really a part of my process, not that, and
Speaker 2: I'm I'm glad that you do it. So yeah, So
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've got the tippy top fairly
Speaker 2: even points wise, you just kind of nickeled and diying
Speaker 2: me a little bit more throughout the list here. So
Speaker 2: I think we call that a tie. You know, it
Speaker 2: was a.
Speaker 3: Tie again, one one hundred and sixty points to one
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty nine points. I don't know, I don't
Speaker 3: know if that's a tie in in my estimation, who.
Speaker 2: Would you rather have in a trade? Logan Evans, Elder,
Speaker 2: Garry Ham, Gary gil Hill for Herder Capus Simpson, Logan Henderson,
Speaker 2: Who would you take? What's that?
Speaker 3: My four?
Speaker 4: No question?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think damn it. I think I think I'm
Speaker 2: with you all right. Well, Matt, I have been heavy
Speaker 2: at it already, watching a lot of guys. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: get you. I'm gonna get you next year, you got
Speaker 2: the sophomore slump is coming.
Speaker 3: In reviewing this, this is my first time looking at
Speaker 3: the percentages since we've checked in every so often.
Speaker 2: I don't agree with the percentages either, Like as far
Speaker 2: as how I would value them. For a lot of
Speaker 2: these guys, I don't know how.
Speaker 3: You Yeah, I agree, and I think I think a
Speaker 3: bunch of them are still arrow up guys, like on
Speaker 3: both of us. For both of us, I think we've
Speaker 3: got a few guys that are filling that zero to
Speaker 3: one percent range that give them another year continued performance,
Speaker 3: and we're going to see them up in the double
Speaker 3: digits relatively soon. So this certainly isn't over. It's just
Speaker 3: an interesting year. And again I definitely picked guys that
Speaker 3: I thought were gonna maybe be a little closer to
Speaker 3: getting picked up in more dynasty leagues, like there were
Speaker 3: more upper minors guys, so that I'm also not surprised
Speaker 3: that's maybe what you're getting at with the higher degree
Speaker 3: of difficulty piece. But well, one thing we've done throughout
Speaker 3: the year, I think is trying to come back and
Speaker 3: revisit some of these guys to see who was doing
Speaker 3: well but also who was doing poorly and trying he's
Speaker 3: out is this signal?
Speaker 4: Is this noise?
Speaker 3: Because slumps happen, hot streaks happened. I think we've tried
Speaker 3: and done a relatively good job of being sober in
Speaker 3: our take. You know, I joke around about patting ourselves
Speaker 3: on the back, but like I had talked up Joey
Speaker 3: Lo Perfito last year and then I was like, as
Speaker 3: he got off to this electric start, I was like,
Speaker 3: he's still the same guy who's going to punch out
Speaker 3: thirty plus percent of the time in the show, and
Speaker 3: I'm not sure he's got the pop to make it stick.
Speaker 3: Like this is fun, but I don't know if this
Speaker 3: is real. And we've talked about that with some guys
Speaker 3: like Brooks Baldwin too, like he ran a four hundred
Speaker 3: babbit for most of the year. That's just not a
Speaker 3: sustainable thing. And he had an incredible season. His roster
Speaker 3: percentage shot up. He's in the bigs, has had a
Speaker 3: nice cup of coffee. Is that going to keep going?
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: He's got the position flexibility. He's done some good things,
Speaker 3: but I think we've done a reasonable job trying to
Speaker 3: provide that additional context. And even as we revisited some
Speaker 3: guys that kind of started off slowly, Blaine Krim was
Speaker 3: one of them that I noted. With nathanie Low's injury
Speaker 3: early in the year, Krim started out super slowly and
Speaker 3: then has ended up the exact same guy that he's
Speaker 3: been for the last five years. But because he missed
Speaker 3: timed that run, he ended up not getting the shot,
Speaker 3: and they signed the husk of Jared Walsh for a
Speaker 3: month or something to fill in. So kind of looking
Speaker 3: back on your guys, Nate a little bit of retrospective, like,
Speaker 3: are there guys that you were like, Oh, I definitely
Speaker 3: wouldn't have gotten I wouldn't have picked him. I would
Speaker 3: I like regret this choice, I regret the process, or
Speaker 3: I really didn't see this outcome coming. Are there a
Speaker 3: couple guys in here that you look at and you're
Speaker 3: just like, Wow, that was a big mess.
Speaker 2: I think for the most part the guys that were
Speaker 2: just really duds. I think for the majority of them,
Speaker 2: like we kind of already at the time. That's the
Speaker 2: area of the list where it's like, yeah, at the time,
Speaker 2: I was like, I don't really know if I liked
Speaker 2: this guy that much, but given all my options, this
Speaker 2: is who I'm going with. I think that's like, really
Speaker 2: the poor part of this list is that is mostly that.
Speaker 2: But then of course there are some guys that I
Speaker 2: was much much more hopeful and convinced that they're going
Speaker 2: to have some good seasons and did not. Ben Ross
Speaker 2: might be the biggest disappointment for me. And yet I
Speaker 2: say that and I don't. I don't think there isn't
Speaker 2: really anything i'd redo in my process. I mean, my
Speaker 2: process is pretty pretty basic. I think find out all
Speaker 2: the guys that I can watch or at least dig on,
Speaker 2: statistically impair some of that or whittle it down that way,
Speaker 2: and then watch them side by side. Who do you
Speaker 2: think is the best you know? Who do you want
Speaker 2: to put a little fun bet On here, So I mean,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't change that. That being said, I'm not totally
Speaker 2: sold that Ben Ross can't be a good baseball player,
Speaker 2: can't be a good hitter. Small sample sizes giveth and
Speaker 2: taketh away. I think, Matt, like, some of my biggest,
Speaker 2: you know, successes this year with this stuff were guys
Speaker 2: from very small sample sizes. Some of them, like Trevor Werner, weren't.
Speaker 2: I mean then we weren't the only ones who were
Speaker 2: like thinking Werner's might be more real than fake, and
Speaker 2: it turned out to be that's good, not the real
Speaker 2: Trevor Werner. Right, So I don't know for me, Maybe
Speaker 2: maybe I'm just not smart enough to realize, uh, you know,
Speaker 2: we're there the crappy parts of those processes. But I
Speaker 2: think a lot of it is just is baseball and
Speaker 2: human beings and countless variables. Maybe you know, it's all
Speaker 2: these things are about reasons, right, I thought these guys
Speaker 2: had the best reason for me to pick them out
Speaker 2: of what was given. So maybe think about some of
Speaker 2: those more. I mean, with hitters, I think it's just hard.
Speaker 2: I mean, if I could line them up and watch
Speaker 2: them like I can a pitcher. I think I'd be
Speaker 2: better at it, but I don't take the time to
Speaker 2: do that with all these guys and cutting up all
Speaker 2: their plate appearances. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know
Speaker 2: if there's like one just kind of like global Oh,
Speaker 2: I took guys who struck out too much because there
Speaker 2: was guys on this list to edge high strikeout rates
Speaker 2: and significantly drop those like a Ritter. So so I
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know if I'm answering your questions
Speaker 2: question well or not. But I think it's a lot
Speaker 2: of subjective stuff.
Speaker 3: And yeah, it's a tricky question kind of coming and
Speaker 3: looking at the misses and seeing was it something that
Speaker 3: was systemic to the process or was it just hey,
Speaker 3: that's baseball.
Speaker 2: I think I think some maybe I could pay or
Speaker 2: maybe not right off injury stuff as much, Like you know,
Speaker 2: I like Ryan Sermak. Dude, he was like my first
Speaker 2: pick in the in the hitter draft, and I was like, oh,
Speaker 2: I think he's good. He's just you know, hasn't been healthy.
Speaker 2: Well he still hasn't been that healthy, and maybe he
Speaker 2: really isn't good. So maybe Wayne injury stuff missed time
Speaker 2: a little bit more.
Speaker 3: I think for me, looking through some of the ones
Speaker 3: that were good versus some of the ones that were missus,
Speaker 3: there's definitely some luck.
Speaker 4: Involved, you know.
Speaker 3: I look at some of the guys that ended up
Speaker 3: higher on this list and had really good years, and wow,
Speaker 3: look at that. They ran high babbits or high homer
Speaker 3: to flyball rates, you know, or both. In the case
Speaker 3: of like Oliver Dunne, a guy we had talked about
Speaker 3: for Milwaukee, he ran a four fifty BABBB in his
Speaker 3: small showing in Triple A and hit a couple of
Speaker 3: homers and then got some play in the bigs, Like
Speaker 3: that's that's not who he is. That's not like how
Speaker 3: he's going to be. But that was one that was
Speaker 3: a bit lucky. And then looking on the ones that
Speaker 3: were less successful, like Jackson Lofton, who was like a
Speaker 3: plus club guy that I like for Houston, Well, he
Speaker 3: ran a two forty eight BABBB, his strikeout rate ticked
Speaker 3: up to twenty seven percent, and he ran a seventy
Speaker 3: four WRC plus on the year split between HIA and
Speaker 3: Triple A. And it's like, yeah, it's like that's not
Speaker 3: a great season. That doesn't portend good things at the
Speaker 3: big leagues, so you know, it's it's sort of a mix,
Speaker 3: like some guys kind of performed how you wanted and
Speaker 3: took a step forward, but some didn't.
Speaker 4: And sure, that's just part of baseball.
Speaker 2: And there's still guys like just looking at some of
Speaker 2: the zero percenters that I think had good, successful seasons,
Speaker 2: it's just not like translating to fantasy popularity, you know,
Speaker 2: like my Houston bat Miguel Palmer. Sure his offensive numbers
Speaker 2: aren't super great. I think there is a potential good
Speaker 2: offensive player in there, but he's extended two levels, is
Speaker 2: up in Triple A now, like he's a legit prospect,
Speaker 2: you know, And I get that rostering him in a
Speaker 2: fantasy league that makes complete sense. But there's still a
Speaker 2: lot of stories that have not totally been told yet.
Speaker 2: And that's that's the fun part. Like we're gonna select
Speaker 2: the b side of the year, and I think with
Speaker 2: some of the finalists, you'll see there were a couple
Speaker 2: of guys on there that I selected a few years
Speaker 2: ago and didn't really do anything and then this year
Speaker 2: was their year, you know, And that's how it's going
Speaker 2: to go.
Speaker 3: And that's well, even even a guy that we had
Speaker 3: checked in on after maybe a month or two Joiner
Speaker 3: for Hardo, who is my east side pick. I think
Speaker 3: I drafted him right and like the seventh pick or
Speaker 3: something of r hit her side of the draft and
Speaker 3: outfielder for Minnesota. He was awful to start the year,
Speaker 3: just strike out right through the roof and Triple A.
Speaker 3: Wasn't walking, wasn't hitting the ball, hard wasn't running like.
Speaker 3: It was a miserable start to the year. And he
Speaker 3: ended up thinking in dfage. I think they cut him, yeah,
Speaker 3: and at least he landed, Yeah, they really, And then
Speaker 3: he landed with Pittsburgh and they stuck him back in
Speaker 3: Double A and he was awesome. His line for the
Speaker 3: whole season ended up being pretty strong, certainly given how
Speaker 3: he started, given you know, the kind of up and
Speaker 3: down nature of the year. It ended up being a
Speaker 3: one to ten WRC plus right across the year. But
Speaker 3: I would have said halfway through the year that he
Speaker 3: was one of my worst picks. And again in retrospect,
Speaker 3: the other guy that I talked about who was pretty similar,
Speaker 3: he ended up getting a cup of coffee in the
Speaker 3: bigs and Deshaun Cursey. I should have gone with Cursey
Speaker 3: but yeah, Farhardo. You know, he maybe he's going to
Speaker 3: stick around with the pirates and do something. So the
Speaker 3: story is far from written with a lot of these guys.
Speaker 2: Right, And we had quite a few b siders just
Speaker 2: selections from this year and make the Bigs at least
Speaker 2: get a cup of coffee.
Speaker 4: A couple more recently since we last recorded.
Speaker 2: I know, this whole point was I want to get
Speaker 2: congrats to you and Gustavo making my boys, man, my boys.
Speaker 3: As we were sitting here just about to start recording,
Speaker 3: I watched his first major league hit.
Speaker 4: I'm so proud. I'm so proud. Gustavo's great.
Speaker 2: They had him in DOUBLEA for seemingly forever, and then
Speaker 2: it was just like, I don't know what was it,
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks in Triple A and now now
Speaker 2: he's up there and he's fun. He's fun, fun, so fun,
Speaker 2: fun fire hydrant.
Speaker 3: His first hit was classic Gustavo, one two count fastball,
Speaker 3: like letter high and he just laces it the opposite field,
Speaker 3: immediately raises his hand in celebration. Is he's running down
Speaker 3: the line. He's so fun.
Speaker 2: Thirty nine B setters have made the Bigs now Matt.
Speaker 2: And hopefully next year we get even more. I'll break
Speaker 2: this year's record of I mean it's really the first year,
Speaker 2: so it'll be the record.
Speaker 4: But yes, Nah, how many do we get from this class.
Speaker 2: From this class that we just selected a year ago? Twelve? Matt,
Speaker 2: there were twelve of this year's class that actually hit
Speaker 2: the bigs this year.
Speaker 4: Not bad.
Speaker 2: Now will they stick around or be anything fantasy wise?
Speaker 2: Totally another story. But yeah, but Matt, let's select the
Speaker 2: B side of the year. You got anybody in mind?
Speaker 4: Talking inside all the time?
Speaker 2: Year, the most popular, the most rostered B siders right
Speaker 2: now are Tovar, Michael Garcia, Raphaela. So I don't know,
Speaker 2: if you want to look at it that way, I
Speaker 2: don't know who had the most successful MLB season or
Speaker 2: is it somebody that really rose the most this year
Speaker 2: popularity wise, or someone who you think rose the most
Speaker 2: just as a player in general. I threw you about
Speaker 2: twenty five names. I thought somebody on that list would
Speaker 2: be it.
Speaker 3: I think of this year, it's hard not to go
Speaker 3: with Tovar or Garcia.
Speaker 2: So you'd go that route. But I mean that's kind
Speaker 2: of just like old news, isn't it. Like is it really.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like, are they the b sider of this this
Speaker 3: year when both broke out before? I guess maybe not?
Speaker 2: Maybe better I with ask this, whose stack has risen
Speaker 2: the most for you just as a real player or
Speaker 2: fantasy asset. And if that's one of those, you know,
Speaker 2: popular guys, so be it.
Speaker 3: Hmmm, that's tough, man, that's tough. Leaning a little towards
Speaker 3: Joan Kenzie Noel.
Speaker 2: Ah, okay, who's rastered in forty eight percent of leagues
Speaker 2: right now?
Speaker 3: And what was he at the part of this year,
Speaker 3: you know, like I know he was a couple of
Speaker 3: years ago.
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, twenty twenty one. Yeah, at the beginning of
Speaker 2: this year he was rastered in sixteen percent of leagues. September,
Speaker 2: well that's September of last year he was in sixteen percent.
Speaker 2: So maybe even better, may he was at twelve percent.
Speaker 3: Correct me if I'm wrong, But that might be the
Speaker 3: biggest percentage jump on this list.
Speaker 4: It might be, like that's a pretty big bump.
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess maybe Raphael Garcia.
Speaker 4: Could have had a little bit bigger bump.
Speaker 3: But here here's why I'm saying Noel. I really liked
Speaker 3: him a couple of years ago, because he was showing
Speaker 3: prodigious power at a really young age, at an advance level,
Speaker 3: and I wasn't too concerned about the strikeout rate just
Speaker 3: because he was so young and seemed to adjust to
Speaker 3: each level relatively well.
Speaker 4: You know, so I was a big fan.
Speaker 3: I was a big fan of what he had been
Speaker 3: doing up to this point. But even then, I was
Speaker 3: still somewhat skeptical that he was going to be able
Speaker 3: to make it work, because you know, every time he
Speaker 3: jumped to a level, he would top that thirty percent
Speaker 3: strikeout rate and it'd be like, oh, well, big donkey boy,
Speaker 3: he swing hard, but.
Speaker 4: He missed a lot, and I was a little worried
Speaker 4: that it wasn't gonna work. But I kind.
Speaker 3: Of think he's showing that not only can he make
Speaker 3: it work, but like this might be kind of real.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's just striking out thirty one percent of
Speaker 3: the time in the bigs so far, but he's still
Speaker 3: just murdering the ball and he's putting it in the air.
Speaker 3: And when you hit the ball as hard as he does,
Speaker 3: that is a recipe for real, real success. And he's
Speaker 3: still just twenty two. To me, is the one that
Speaker 3: showing that he can. He's got the power, he can
Speaker 3: get to it, he can lift it in air in
Speaker 3: the bigs. That's exciting to me.
Speaker 4: That's more.
Speaker 3: It seems like he's getting to what I thought he
Speaker 3: could be earlier, you know what I mean, And that's
Speaker 3: a corner outfield, just absolute slugger. So I think he's
Speaker 3: a really good He's probably the biggest one for me
Speaker 3: because a lot of these other guys that we liked
Speaker 3: for one reason or another, they haven't proved it at
Speaker 3: the big league level, or they haven't done so for
Speaker 3: very long, or there's still some warts to look at.
Speaker 3: But Noel looks like.
Speaker 4: He might be a middle of the order masher.
Speaker 3: You might live with a slightly elevated strikeout rate, but
Speaker 3: I kind of think you're gonna be happy about doing so,
Speaker 3: especially in a power focused league.
Speaker 2: I like that Clau. I think that's a solid pick,
Speaker 2: and I think there's some similarities with who I'm going
Speaker 2: to pick. I'm gonna go with Jose Tania, similar in
Speaker 2: that I think both of them might be on a
Speaker 2: track right now where we're talking about them having every
Speaker 2: day run next year. Now, Noel may be closer to
Speaker 2: that than Tany at this point. But Dany has been
Speaker 2: pretty freaking good with his time up with the Nationals.
Speaker 2: And I've been watching a lot of games and just
Speaker 2: kind of the even some interviews and some of the jive,
Speaker 2: some of the vibes that I'm getting is that like
Speaker 2: they really like him. This is a good little example
Speaker 2: of like prospect fatigue stuff to Matt, Like July of
Speaker 2: twenty one, he was one percent, February twenty two, fifteen percent,
Speaker 2: nine percent November of that year, down to four percent
Speaker 2: a year ago, and then now he's up at twenty
Speaker 2: three percent, you know, and I wasn't sure if he
Speaker 2: would ever. You know, it's good enough to become and
Speaker 2: I still don't necessarily know if an everyday MLB player,
Speaker 2: but I think that's very much on the table now.
Speaker 2: And guy can swing it. I know he's aggressive. I
Speaker 2: know he's not a perfect hitter. He's had some WPA
Speaker 2: moments and Big Rbo had a kN act at one
Speaker 2: for four Totnite with their one RBI. I think he's
Speaker 2: good enough defensively to play a good third base. And yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't know his To me, that's the guy that
Speaker 2: has legit become most legit who probably wasn't on this
Speaker 2: list this year.
Speaker 3: For me, yeah, he seems like somebody who might be
Speaker 3: proving that his line drive skills are somewhat real. And
Speaker 3: he reminds me a little bit of the Luis Garcia
Speaker 3: for the Nats, like kind of a similar player in
Speaker 3: some respects, and that they've been young for their level,
Speaker 3: always have shown some skills, but people have always kind
Speaker 3: of doubted that they can keep it going. I like
Speaker 3: Tania to prove that wrong a bit. And again I'm
Speaker 3: still skeptical that he can run a three seventy six
Speaker 3: bab it over you know, six hundred plate appearances. But sure,
Speaker 3: he does hit line drives at a pretty good clip.
Speaker 3: He does hit the ball pretty hard yep, And in
Speaker 3: his MLB time this year is showing that he's able
Speaker 3: to herb the strikeout rate. If that gain is real,
Speaker 3: then the Knats might have a decent little player on
Speaker 3: their hand.
Speaker 2: Talk about aggressive guys coming up, Matt. Maybe this is
Speaker 2: a little self serving too, but he can hit good pitches.
Speaker 2: He can do damage on you know, some nasty and
Speaker 2: that's that's kind of what he's been doing in the BIGS.
Speaker 2: He's not just you know, hitting the backed up slider
Speaker 2: over the middle, you know. And yeah, maybe his aggressiveness
Speaker 2: is a whammy for him, But right now he's got
Speaker 2: the athleticism, he's got the bat speed, he's got the
Speaker 2: mental reps in there that he can put the bat
Speaker 2: on the ball at a pretty high clip. I think,
Speaker 2: mm hmm. So I don't know I'm gonna go with him,
Speaker 2: should we pull it? Maybe you are ten listeners who's
Speaker 2: the b SAT year Noel ertained you. I'm sure they'll
Speaker 2: go with Noel.
Speaker 3: But sure I think we should also uh a pitcher,
Speaker 3: you know, we can have your pictures hanging high and dry.
Speaker 2: Well, we've only got you and I did it this
Speaker 2: year and then threw some out last year, so it's
Speaker 2: not as big of a pool to pick from. But
Speaker 2: I don't know. You're going with somebody who's in the bigs,
Speaker 2: and we just started getting some guys in the bigs.
Speaker 3: Well, our two Detroit guys who said a top our
Speaker 3: list are both pretty interesting picks.
Speaker 4: But I don't know.
Speaker 3: For me, Herder didn't show me anything new this year,
Speaker 3: Like this is kind of the guy I thought he was.
Speaker 3: You know, maybe it's succeeding even more than I than
Speaker 3: I thought last year, But I'm not gonna pick him.
Speaker 3: I'm the guy that has impressed me the most this year,
Speaker 3: I think is Gary gil Hill. Like of a lot
Speaker 3: of the guys that we picked looking at them last year,
Speaker 3: like Logan Henderson, I think he'd be higher than this
Speaker 3: if not for the injury to start the year. This
Speaker 3: is the guy that I fell in love with watching
Speaker 3: last offseason. Like that's not a surprise, Logan Evans. I'm
Speaker 3: not really convinced yet, Like, yeah, he's twenty percent owned
Speaker 3: and he showed some stuff this year, But to me,
Speaker 3: I still think he's got a long way to go
Speaker 3: to really prove that he's rosterable as a kind of
Speaker 3: starter in the majors. But watching a bit of Gary
Speaker 3: gil Hill, I see, like I see that that has
Speaker 3: some potential. It's got a real mix, a nice pensiant
Speaker 3: for execution that I don't think everybody has. And he
Speaker 3: was one that I just didn't buy like you were,
Speaker 3: Like I thought he was a made a character, like
Speaker 3: you had just invented this name. And then even after
Speaker 3: I watched him, I was like, boy, these like fore innings,
Speaker 3: I don't really see what Nate sees here and having
Speaker 3: watched a fair amount more of him this year, that's
Speaker 3: the guy for me on the pitching side that most
Speaker 3: that my opinion about has most changed.
Speaker 2: I'd say right on, I think I would go with
Speaker 2: Kaider Montero because what I picked him last year, and
Speaker 2: that was nice he broke out. I wasn't sold that
Speaker 2: he was really going to be an MLB starter and
Speaker 2: that you know, yes he's starting right now, but he
Speaker 2: hasn't like really established himself. But I think I'm more
Speaker 2: inclined to think that he can stick in that role
Speaker 2: now than I did a year ago. And he's had
Speaker 2: a couple of nice outings and I think he could
Speaker 2: do it. So yeah, I think I'd go with Montero.
Speaker 2: B side arms just a lot of the arm specs
Speaker 2: that I pick up, I don't always totally like love
Speaker 2: them and don't want to like stay married to them.
Speaker 2: This is I totally want to use them as trade bait,
Speaker 2: you know. And Montero is a guy that I traded
Speaker 2: away just about everywhere, but I wonder if that was
Speaker 2: a mistake.
Speaker 3: Now Montero, I feel like his roster percentage is inflated
Speaker 3: by a couple of good outings recently, and you know
Speaker 3: same same is true of Herder too.
Speaker 4: For sure.
Speaker 3: At this point, I'm thinking that that Montero still might
Speaker 3: struggle to stick in the Tiger's rotation. He's the guy
Speaker 3: that I'm not totally convinced on, Like he's been useful
Speaker 3: and definitely showed some stuff.
Speaker 4: But to me, that's fair. I think there's.
Speaker 2: Before he before he got into the bigs. If you
Speaker 2: would ask, no way, I'm betting that he sticks now,
Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, maybe I would, you know what I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not completely sold. I didn't think i'd
Speaker 2: be in that situation looking at everybody else, like, I
Speaker 2: don't know if they really change my opinion as drastically
Speaker 2: as he did.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that makes sense. That makes sense.
Speaker 2: Are you sure that we can't go with brand Herder
Speaker 2: though he's a b side arm that's dominating the bigs.
Speaker 3: Honestly, I'd love to go with Herder. I it's just
Speaker 3: that this is kind of what I said, Like, I
Speaker 3: was like, he's gonna come up, he's gonna look different,
Speaker 3: he's gonna befuddle big leaguers. I think he might be
Speaker 3: getting a few more whiffs than I expected this time
Speaker 3: last year, and I'm not sure he's gonna be able
Speaker 3: to sustain one point one walk rate per nine or
Speaker 3: whatever it is. Like his his walk rate is really impressive,
Speaker 3: but like it feels pretty real to me. The fifth
Speaker 3: is there, the XCRA is two point one eight, Like.
Speaker 4: That's fucking phenomenal.
Speaker 3: And it's not like he's going out there in one
Speaker 3: run outings or in one inning outings to bump up
Speaker 3: the stuff or anything like, Yeah, he's only got one
Speaker 3: game started, but he's gone bulk and every single outing
Speaker 3: that he's had, So I've got I've got some opinions
Speaker 3: about this, like some thoughts about how he's succeeding and why,
Speaker 3: and to me, it seems fairly sustainable. He's not going
Speaker 3: to be a sub three er guy, I don't think.
Speaker 3: But is he going to be a really good, valuable
Speaker 3: starting pitcher, Yeah, I kind of think so.
Speaker 2: Why were his Triple A numbers so middling this I
Speaker 2: didn't watch much of him in Triple A at the
Speaker 2: beginning of the year. I watched a few outings and
Speaker 2: that was it.
Speaker 3: Early on, his walk rate was a little elevated for him.
Speaker 3: I think it was up over three per nine At
Speaker 3: one point.
Speaker 2: I wonder what he was doing, what he was throwing,
Speaker 2: what his game was looking like. If he was I
Speaker 2: don't know, throwing some offering more than than usual or
Speaker 2: what is it?
Speaker 3: Just yeah, I'm not sure about that. But I remember
Speaker 3: when we checked in on him and you were like, oh,
Speaker 3: the era is high, and he's like not succeeding like
Speaker 3: we kind of thought coming out of his really impressive
Speaker 3: double a the year before. But you look at it
Speaker 3: other than the walk rate ticking up ever so slightly,
Speaker 3: and again I think that was inflated a bit by
Speaker 3: some early outings. Everything else looked All of the skill
Speaker 3: related stuff looked pretty normal. But what wasn't normal was
Speaker 3: a three point fifty BABBEB of sixty three percent left
Speaker 3: on base and a fourteen percent homer to flyball rate.
Speaker 3: All of those were worse. Those are like the three
Speaker 3: luck metrics you look at for pictures right. While pitchers
Speaker 3: have some influence on BABBOB and some influence on homer
Speaker 3: to fly ball rate, left on base rate is like
Speaker 3: pretty much luck of the draw shit and BABEB and
Speaker 3: homer to flyball rate are also somewhat luck metric. Base
Speaker 3: and all of them were in the worst direction for
Speaker 3: his overall line. So when we looked in on him
Speaker 3: earlier this year and we're like, oh man, the ERA
Speaker 3: doesn't look great, and you know, his triple ARA still
Speaker 3: sits at five point eight, I was like, you know,
Speaker 3: I kind of don't really think it's telling us anything different,
Speaker 3: just as like this is the how the luck metrics
Speaker 3: is stupid. Yeah, yeah, and even FIP in this case, like, yeah,
Speaker 3: I you know, four to four FIP in triple A
Speaker 3: as a starter is like, that's fine. The International League
Speaker 3: is quite the PCL, but offense is up there, and
Speaker 3: I think those things should tell us that, like what
Speaker 3: he's doing at the major league level is due for
Speaker 3: some regression. But I also think that what we should
Speaker 3: look into the triple A line is, yeah, those luck
Speaker 3: metrics were all three against him. He's still pitched to
Speaker 3: a four to four FIP, Like that's impressive, that's that's
Speaker 3: not that's pretty good. So that to me is that
Speaker 3: he wasn't doing much different. And I think we've seen
Speaker 3: that at the big league level too, that he still
Speaker 3: throws mostly fastballs, leans on his slider in the strikeout counts,
Speaker 3: and then has still a bit of a show meet
Speaker 3: change up that I still think he could do to
Speaker 3: use a bit more the Okay, i'll spoil a little
Speaker 3: bit about the hypothesis that I have for how herd
Speaker 3: Or succeeding here is he he has a unique four
Speaker 3: seam fastball, and he uses his plus command in a
Speaker 3: really interesting way. So his main pitch is his two
Speaker 3: seam fastball, and while it grades out okay by some
Speaker 3: of the stuffed metrics, it looks sort of like your
Speaker 3: standard sinker. It's got some run, its got some sinc
Speaker 3: but neither are super impressive. And as we talked about
Speaker 3: before Nate in the Dynasty, Herder doesn't have great extension,
Speaker 3: even though he is a huge old donkey six six
Speaker 3: two fifty with long limbs.
Speaker 4: One thing that I think.
Speaker 3: Is helping him as a sinkerballer primarily with his two
Speaker 3: seam fastball, is I wonder if his lack of extension
Speaker 3: is helping the movement play up a little bit more
Speaker 3: on the on the two seam. So his observed horizontal
Speaker 3: movement is greater than the predicted horizontal movement, and some
Speaker 3: of that is due to what's called lamin or flown.
Speaker 3: If you if you've heard that term before. But the
Speaker 3: turbulence around the two seam that lambiner flow, laminar flow.
Speaker 2: It's not like a like a woman thing, No, it's.
Speaker 3: It's the turbulence around the ball that causes it to
Speaker 3: move more than you would expect just given the spin characteristics.
Speaker 3: It's a super complicated physics phenomenon, but it helps explain
Speaker 3: the difference between lamar. I think it was a guy.
Speaker 3: I think that's a guy's last name. I don't remember
Speaker 3: it's capitalized when when I've seen it, so it usually
Speaker 3: means it's a guy. But I wonder if he's letting
Speaker 3: the ball move more because he isn't extending down so
Speaker 3: unlike with a like a four seam super high ride fastball,
Speaker 3: where you want to release it as close to the
Speaker 3: batter as possible so they have as little time to react.
Speaker 3: I wonder with something like a two seam whether he
Speaker 3: isn't served by the little bit of extra movement that
Speaker 3: he gets by letting that ball hit the air and
Speaker 3: move a little bit more as it goes.
Speaker 2: It's not a completely alien concept. I've never heard lamin
Speaker 2: or flow, but I've heard some people talk about and
Speaker 2: this makes sense to me too, Like the ball obviously,
Speaker 2: if the ball's in the air longer, has longer to travel,
Speaker 2: you could get more movement, like you're saying, right, I
Speaker 2: think that's is that fair the way that I that
Speaker 2: And also too part of that because like Noah Schultz
Speaker 2: has a really short extension as well.
Speaker 4: Hmmm.
Speaker 2: And it's funky from the left side, very basically putting it.
Speaker 2: If you're if you're throwing a ball that looks like
Speaker 2: a strike, right, which is you know, an optimal thing
Speaker 2: for a pitcher to do, and the ball is traveling
Speaker 2: longer and looking like a strike longer, like that might
Speaker 2: be a part that plays into it as well. Does
Speaker 2: that make sense?
Speaker 3: I think that that's some of it too. And one
Speaker 3: thing that he does seem to have is pretty good
Speaker 3: command of all four of his pitches. And I say
Speaker 3: that too because he has a unique fastball, a four
Speaker 3: seam fastball he uses very differently to his two seam.
Speaker 3: Two seams is bread and butter. He's using it early
Speaker 3: in the count to get strikes. He's using it on
Speaker 3: the shadow. You look at the heat map and it's
Speaker 3: one of those ones where it's a lot in the middle.
Speaker 3: But he also puts it in all different corners of
Speaker 3: the zone depending on what hinded batter he's facing. But
Speaker 3: his four seam fastball, if you look at his heat
Speaker 3: plot on that, he commands the shit out of that thing.
Speaker 3: It is only at the top of the zone. And
Speaker 3: now you're saying, like, oh, well, of course, like you
Speaker 3: throw a foreseam fastball at the top of the zone,
Speaker 3: you're looking for pop ups, you're looking for whiffs, and
Speaker 3: that's what you're going for. But that's not the shape
Speaker 3: of Herder's fastball. Herder's fastball actually is a unique outlier
Speaker 3: in the other direction. It drops way more than other
Speaker 3: similar velocity and spin rate foreseeing fastballs. And I'm not
Speaker 3: sure why this is yet, but you see aiming that
Speaker 3: thing at the top of the zone. You see these guys,
Speaker 3: nobody's hitting it hard. They're also hitting it on the
Speaker 3: ground a lot, which is sort of a weird thing
Speaker 3: for a fastball at the top of the zone. And
Speaker 3: I wonder if there's something about the unique nature of
Speaker 3: of his four steamer that guys are looking at and
Speaker 3: used to that four seam riding high, hard fastball and
Speaker 3: they're trying to swing to try and hit that ball
Speaker 3: and hit it hard and hit it out. But instead
Speaker 3: of it continuing to quote unquote rise as the as
Speaker 3: we're seeing more and more often, Herder's unique extra five
Speaker 3: inches of drop. So it drops five inches more than
Speaker 3: you would expect it to given the rest of its characteristic.
Speaker 3: That's a big amount. And so you look at him
Speaker 3: on stackcasts and like that's a huge outlier. It's just
Speaker 3: that it's an outlier in the other direction that we're
Speaker 3: used to thinking about four seamers. And I have a
Speaker 3: hunch that that's really leading into why his batted ball
Speaker 3: outcomes and why his expected era from its stack caast
Speaker 3: metrics remain excellent. As I mentioned in the Dynasty Got Discord,
Speaker 3: the guy that comps closest to Brandt Herder as far
Speaker 3: as batted ball outcomes is Corbyn Burns.
Speaker 2: Yeah, who excels.
Speaker 3: At getting the soft contact, excels it getting weak contact
Speaker 3: on his pitches.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, that you bring up a couple of interesting
Speaker 2: points to me, Matt, Like, okay, so stuff plus models, right,
Speaker 2: I am not a scholar. Aren't they supposed to measure
Speaker 2: how different a particular pitcher is for steam fastball or
Speaker 2: whatever offering is the mean fastball of the league. Yes, okay,
Speaker 2: but so is there not like an absolute value sort
Speaker 2: of measurement going on there, Like, Okay, this for steam
Speaker 2: fastball is really good because it's got x amount of
Speaker 2: more inches of you know, IVB or whatever. But like,
Speaker 2: like you're talking about Herders, it's like like maybe it's
Speaker 2: like a kish fastball, like it's it's so bad it's
Speaker 2: good sort of an idea.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure.
Speaker 2: Just measure it that way if you're supposed to be
Speaker 2: measuring the difference from the mean.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: And some of this might be just some small sample
Speaker 3: nonsense and people might start teeing off on Herders for
Speaker 3: seam tomorrow, Like I don't know, but I do know
Speaker 3: that stuff plus grades herders foreseem fastball as like absolutely atrocious.
Speaker 3: And I think so does pitching Bot too. Yeah, both
Speaker 3: of them like say that this pitch should be unplayable.
Speaker 3: It says his sinker is okay, like below average but okay,
Speaker 3: and his slider is really good, and his changeup is
Speaker 3: atrocious but he's got good locations and so it all
Speaker 3: adds up to again, I've got some I think that
Speaker 3: both stuff plus and pitchingbot don't do a good job
Speaker 3: of like actually using numbers to make them mean something useful,
Speaker 3: but gives them an overall pitching plus of ninety five
Speaker 3: with all those things combined, and a stuff plus of
Speaker 3: ninety even though he still is throwing by far more
Speaker 3: fastballs than he is any offspeed. I still don't understand
Speaker 3: how that works when it just like hammers his other
Speaker 3: his other stuff grades, but I wonder if those stuff
Speaker 3: grades are kind of missing that kind of thing. And
Speaker 3: looking at some of the other comps that are on
Speaker 3: his like pitching characteristics comps on stack cast, I think
Speaker 3: they were like it was like Braxton Garrett, Shoot, I'm
Speaker 3: forgetting some of the others, but it was like maybe
Speaker 3: just in Steel it was like crafty lefty types, you
Speaker 3: know that have like a low nineties fastball and then
Speaker 3: an interesting array of secondaries, and that all seemed like
Speaker 3: pretty useful pictures to me. I was like, those are
Speaker 3: some decent pictures.
Speaker 4: Like I don't hate that group.
Speaker 2: Right, Sometimes part of being a really good picture is
Speaker 2: just knowing how to use your tools well, right, And
Speaker 2: stuff plus doesn't measure that, right, man. I know they
Speaker 2: try to do like location plus and all stuff. But
Speaker 2: is there sequence plus? Is there? Yeah, knowing your hitter
Speaker 2: well plus like I don't know.
Speaker 3: Well And one of the things that I find so
Speaker 3: interesting about this and again it's a small sample that
Speaker 3: we have at the big league level, but we've got
Speaker 3: the stuff plus saying that Herder's two seem his most
Speaker 3: thrown pitch is a eighty eight, which is very bad,
Speaker 3: Like that's not good for for a fastball. And yet
Speaker 3: Fangrafts also puts the run value on a particular pitch,
Speaker 3: So how many runs above average has that pitch been worth?
Speaker 3: His run value for his sinker so far this year
Speaker 3: is six point nine. That nice, Yeah, that is nice.
Speaker 3: And give me a second, because that like is I'm
Speaker 3: fairly sure, wildly good, like it.
Speaker 2: Is performing really well.
Speaker 3: Yes, like this is a terrible pitch and is up
Speaker 3: there pitch is up there with one of like the
Speaker 3: very best pitches.
Speaker 2: I don't know, you know, Sarahs, I don't you know
Speaker 2: I have any sort of relationship with him. I wanted
Speaker 2: to ask him just recently, like is there a commonality?
Speaker 2: Does he notice things that like when you're looking at
Speaker 2: the difference of performance of a pitch versus it's stuff plus,
Speaker 2: like what those pitches that are outperforming, there's stuff plus,
Speaker 2: like what do you what do you see there? What
Speaker 2: are their commonalities? Is there a theme going on with
Speaker 2: pictures that are outperforming, so to speak?
Speaker 3: So so I just went to the Fangraft's leader board
Speaker 3: and looked at the most valuable sinkers over the course
Speaker 3: of this year. And this is this is not a
Speaker 3: rate based metric, right, this is a counting stat So
Speaker 3: the more of them that you throw that accrue positive values.
Speaker 3: So a lot of the guys on this list have
Speaker 3: thrown a.
Speaker 4: Lot of innings.
Speaker 3: Number one on the list, Paul Skeins nineteen.
Speaker 4: That's a lot.
Speaker 3: He's also thrown one hundred and twenty innings. Number two
Speaker 3: on the list, Logan Web seventeen point five. Seems like
Speaker 3: those are two pretty good fastballs. Jose Soriano is way
Speaker 3: up there, which I think is interesting. Number four Franbervaldez seventeen,
Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler sixteen point eight, Number seven George Kirby eleven
Speaker 3: point eight. You get the picture, right, This is like
Speaker 3: the volume and these are guys with great sinkers, great
Speaker 3: commands that are really making it work well. Brent Herder
Speaker 3: in thirty eight and two thirds innings is twenty fourth
Speaker 3: on this list at six point nine. His sinker has
Speaker 3: it has been as value valuable as Errek Scoobles, and
Speaker 3: Trek Scuoble has thrown about five times as many innings. Now,
Speaker 3: of course he probably hasn't thrown five times as many sinkers.
Speaker 3: They are slightly different pictures. But that is like kind
Speaker 3: of astonishing to me that in thirty eight and two
Speaker 3: thirds innings, this quote unquote bad pitch is either being
Speaker 3: commanded so incredibly well that it's actually really good, which
Speaker 3: you know, the stuff plus models do give him some
Speaker 3: credit for exceptional command of all of his pitches, really
Speaker 3: and do that. Obviously, bolster'ses overall pitching plus thing. But
Speaker 3: it's just a really interesting case study that I think
Speaker 3: maybe it's missing something about that pitch, and certainly the
Speaker 3: command I think is one of the real positives that
Speaker 3: we're seeing from Herder.
Speaker 2: You're geeking out on Herder here and going on like,
Speaker 2: I think I accomplished my goal of the year, Matt.
Speaker 2: You finally are getting it. You're finally coming to the
Speaker 2: right side pictures. That's where it's at. Matt pictures are better.
Speaker 3: It's certainly it certainly as fun when you hit on
Speaker 3: somebody as as exciting as this.
Speaker 4: Uh and and.
Speaker 3: We'll take our victory lap while it's still hot and
Speaker 3: fresh out the kitchen.
Speaker 4: We don't need to wait for I'm gonna roll that
Speaker 4: body in.
Speaker 2: So you may have won the battle, my friend, but
Speaker 2: I won the war.
Speaker 4: If you say so, If you say so, well.
Speaker 2: Matt, I think I want to be done with twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four.
Speaker 3: Well, you got to root my couple of teams that
Speaker 3: are still alive. I've still got a couple of championship hopes.
Speaker 3: Good look there and hoping, hoping it works out.
Speaker 2: Hope you do. I'm to say this, it was really hard.
Speaker 2: I wanted to talk about some guys I've been watching
Speaker 2: lately so badly right now, So we have to turn
Speaker 2: off these microphones until I guess, the off season, until
Speaker 2: we're ready to get into that and and do next year. Matt,
Speaker 2: Is that is that cool?
Speaker 4: Yeah, buddy, and that's cool.
Speaker 3: I'll have some time off of work coming up.
Speaker 4: I don't know how much in minor.
Speaker 3: League baseball I'm gonna be able to get in, but
Speaker 3: I'll do my best. I'll start working through my list,
Speaker 3: and yeah, we'll work on it.
Speaker 2: You have the title to defend, now, don't you.
Speaker 3: I do, I do, And like you, I'll just keep
Speaker 3: pointing to the like two successes that actually work out
Speaker 3: and say, like, man, look at how good I am
Speaker 3: at this, Like too out of every hundred turn into
Speaker 3: something real.
Speaker 2: I know, look at me. Well, I think that'll do
Speaker 2: it for the year. If you've been following along, you've
Speaker 2: been listening, we appreciate it. I've had some fun, I've
Speaker 2: learned a lot from Nat. Nat, thanks for joining me
Speaker 2: this year. I hope it wasn't too painful for you.
Speaker 4: You bet, buddy.
Speaker 3: This has been a real pleasure and thanks to our fans.
Speaker 4: We love hearing from you.
Speaker 3: And even I was just looking at some guys roster
Speaker 3: today is asking for some help in the Dynasty. I
Speaker 3: got Discord and I was like, oh, man, either this
Speaker 3: guy's a B side listener or he's just got some
Speaker 3: of the same ideas we do, because he had so
Speaker 3: many interesting B side cats in his Deep Deep Dynasty league.
Speaker 3: So we always appreciate hearing the shout outs. Come join
Speaker 3: us in the Dynasty. Discord reach out to Nate on
Speaker 3: Twitter and it'll decide whether you're cool enough to talk
Speaker 3: to me, and then he can pass along my my
Speaker 3: info if you are otherwise. Happy, happy mudding, everybody.
Speaker 4: This has been a real pleasure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll, we say, next year, but it'll probably just
Speaker 2: be like a month we started off last October right
Speaker 2: end of last Octobers won't be too much longer. We'll
Speaker 2: have some at least to us, some fresh names to
Speaker 2: throw around and start thinking about twenty twenty five b
Speaker 2: siders to be.
Speaker 3: We'll maybe convince ourselves that the twenty twenty four Minor
Speaker 3: League season wasn't all awful like we like we thought
Speaker 3: it at some point this year.
Speaker 2: No, I've yeah, all right, I gotta save it. All right,
Speaker 2: We'll let Chicago Farmer take us out. Be well. Touch
Speaker 2: to you next year.
Speaker 1: Later, five miles an hour, riding too his head. We
Speaker 1: have them down first but the umbonius face. And now
Speaker 1: on the very next pitch he up and stole second
Speaker 1: things with greatst speed. He wasn't born, He had the dead, Yes,
Speaker 1: uniforn