1 00:00:22,399 --> 00:00:28,359 Speaker 1: And hello, how are you doing on this Tuesday. Today's 2 00:00:28,359 --> 00:00:31,719 the twelfth day of May, Year of Our Lord, twenty 3 00:00:31,839 --> 00:00:35,880 twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan. And well, we 4 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,399 have we have a lot to talk about today. We've 5 00:00:38,439 --> 00:00:43,479 got some economic indicators like inflation. The inflation numbers came 6 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,439 out this morning for the month of April. We've got China. 7 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,560 Everybody's talking about China. The President is on his way 8 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:56,840 to China and he will arrive tomorrow because well, China 9 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:02,520 is twelve hours ahead of of East Coast time, Eastern time, 10 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,200 so it's he's on his way for that. It'll be 11 00:01:06,439 --> 00:01:08,400 that's that's going to be the focus of everything. We've 12 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,280 got yunis Jun from Beijing talking about what's going on 13 00:01:12,359 --> 00:01:16,120 over there. We've also got the war and what's going 14 00:01:16,159 --> 00:01:17,879 on with the war. And all of a sudden, it's like, 15 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,799 what war. I don't know anything about war? Is there 16 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,799 a war going on? Because the President is out of town? 17 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,040 You know, nothing's good? Well, I don't know for sure, 18 00:01:27,079 --> 00:01:29,400 but you would think nothing is going to happen, No 19 00:01:29,599 --> 00:01:33,159 decisions are being made, nothing, I mean. The President responded 20 00:01:33,239 --> 00:01:36,680 yesterday to the Iranian proposal, saying it was a bunch 21 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:42,439 of garbage, and and what they just said, No, no, 22 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,560 I didn't like it. It was a bunch of garbage. There 23 00:01:45,599 --> 00:01:49,359 was no like we're now going to start our military campaign, 24 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,599 none of that. So that's all still up in the air. 25 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:57,560 Let's start with China and check in with Eunice Yun 26 00:01:57,719 --> 00:01:58,359 in Beijing. 27 00:01:58,959 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: Thanks Timo Well. 28 00:01:59,719 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 3: China is on a charm offensive playing up its US 29 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,959 business ties ahead of President Trump's visit here. The Foreign 30 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:10,759 Ministry today put out a video that highlights Apple as 31 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:15,639 well as Tesla as good examples of businesses here. Of course, 32 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,639 those two companies on a list on the invite list 33 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:23,080 for those CEOs to join President Trump when he travels here. 34 00:02:23,479 --> 00:02:26,159 That list features companies that benefit such as Apple, but 35 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,840 also companies that have suffered because of the competition and 36 00:02:29,879 --> 00:02:31,360 de deterioration of. 37 00:02:31,479 --> 00:02:32,479 Speaker 2: US China ties. 38 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 3: Micron and Alumina, for example, both targets of Chinese retaliation. 39 00:02:36,879 --> 00:02:42,439 Visa and city historically restricted from market access. Qualcom is 40 00:02:42,479 --> 00:02:44,960 the latest to confirm that it is going to be joining. 41 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,599 Cisco says that as CEO won't join, Nvidia is not 42 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:50,639 on that list. 43 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 2: Despite the concerns over. 44 00:02:52,439 --> 00:02:57,759 Speaker 3: Iran, the primary focus is very likely going to be 45 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,479 about business deals and trade shoes. 46 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 2: A lot of that. 47 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,479 Speaker 3: The expectation is about Chinese purchases of boeings as well 48 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,199 as big agricultural purchases. But what is unclear is whether 49 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,159 or not this summit is going to address some of 50 00:03:11,159 --> 00:03:14,159 the other long standing issues and some of the newer 51 00:03:14,199 --> 00:03:16,800 ones that the business community is worried about. In fact, 52 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,599 on the eve of President Trump's visit, the US Chamber 53 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,919 of Commerce flagged a report that they are very concerned 54 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:28,400 about China's next phase of industrial policy, which they say 55 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,000 could be even more pernicious, and what they describe as 56 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,879 the industrial policy of everything, embedding China in global supply 57 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,360 chains and having a lot of different dangers and risks 58 00:03:40,479 --> 00:03:42,560 to industry as well as jobs back home. 59 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,879 Speaker 1: Guys. So, the way she describes it is this is 60 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,560 not I mean, like I said, what war. It's not 61 00:03:48,599 --> 00:03:51,919 about Iran, It's not about China's relationship with Iran. It's 62 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,840 about business deals. This is a business meeting, and she 63 00:03:56,199 --> 00:04:01,199 is interesting. She mentioned both Citibank and also Visa have 64 00:04:01,319 --> 00:04:04,599 been not allowed to do business in China, but both 65 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,400 the CEOs of both Visa and City are going on 66 00:04:08,439 --> 00:04:13,400 this trip, So it's all about business. According to unis. 67 00:04:13,639 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 3: Well, I think that the Chinese would have to see 68 00:04:16,199 --> 00:04:20,040 that it's within their interest to support Iran. So of 69 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,839 course the immediate interest is yes, they would want to 70 00:04:22,879 --> 00:04:26,800 have stability in horror Mus because of the trade. Also 71 00:04:27,199 --> 00:04:31,079 there is some impact when it comes to their energy security. 72 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,759 Speaker 2: But longer term, when they look at. 73 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 3: The remaking of the order in the Middle East, it's 74 00:04:37,639 --> 00:04:41,720 within their longer term interest, not necessarily to help the 75 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:46,160 US and to make sure that the US is kind 76 00:04:46,199 --> 00:04:50,519 of burdened with different problems. So longer term it's not 77 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,519 necessarily within their interest, and that's really the big question 78 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:58,839 for them. Well, in terms of the official Chinese response, 79 00:04:59,079 --> 00:05:02,120 there's been no common or inside there, but definitely a 80 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,720 lot of Chinese people like you, have been very curious 81 00:05:05,079 --> 00:05:09,199 about why Jensen Wong wasn't included. And we had already 82 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,199 been hearing from Jensen Wang to Jim Kramer when he 83 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,279 had said that it would be his great honor, and 84 00:05:14,319 --> 00:05:14,800 this was. 85 00:05:16,399 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 2: More recently to be joining. 86 00:05:18,759 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: The list of CEOs if he were in fact invited. 87 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 2: He wasn't invited. 88 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 3: And so the way that that's being understood here is 89 00:05:26,959 --> 00:05:31,600 that perhaps US policy towards advanced ships hasn't changed. And 90 00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:34,480 the other signal that it's sending here is that Nvidia 91 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,240 might not get the sales that it needs and its 92 00:05:37,399 --> 00:05:40,120 recovery in this market might necessarily be there. 93 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,519 Speaker 1: Yes, you mentioned Jensen Wong. That is the CEO of Nvidia, 94 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,120 so he is not on this trip as far as 95 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:53,600 Wall Street is concerned. Gil Lauria with Dr Davidson Da 96 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:58,839 Davidson on Wall Street has these observations. 97 00:05:58,399 --> 00:06:01,199 Speaker 4: Well, Chaka is very important Apple, and Apple has been 98 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:06,120 incredibly resilient in this market. Apple still gets substantial amount 99 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,720 of its revenue, more than fifteen percent from China. It 100 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,319 still owns the high end market within China, and a 101 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:18,279 lot of the credit goes to CEO Tim Cook, who 102 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:23,600 is stepping down but will retain policymaking responsibilities as chairman 103 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:25,959 of the board. And this is a big reason he 104 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,279 has had so much success navigating the US China conflict 105 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:35,879 and maintaining Apple's presence in China. That's not to take 106 00:06:35,959 --> 00:06:39,959 away from Jensen Wang. Jensen Wang is a supremely good diplomat. 107 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,480 It's just that that episode is played out. We are 108 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,879 unlikely to sell advanced ship and advanced ship equipment into 109 00:06:47,959 --> 00:06:53,000 China because of the AI competition, and so my sense 110 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,639 is there's no reason for him to go to China again. 111 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,720 He goes to China on his own, he doesn't need 112 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,839 the President to go there, and it's unlikely that he's 113 00:07:00,879 --> 00:07:03,879 going to get a positive resolution. China is unlikely to 114 00:07:03,959 --> 00:07:07,120 be a major market for Nvidia, and so that ship 115 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,199 has sailed. There's other items on the agenda's units was describing. 116 00:07:11,959 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: So again, this isn't about Roan, This isn't about any 117 00:07:14,639 --> 00:07:19,759 of the geopolitics. This is about business. And China wants 118 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,319 desperately to find out more about AI because we are 119 00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:27,759 miles ahead of them and they desperately want to catch up. 120 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 4: So I think we need to make our relationship with 121 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,240 China is very complicated, and we're going to know a 122 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,360 lot more about the time President Trump flies back. But 123 00:07:38,439 --> 00:07:41,759 what we do know is that in AI we are competitors. 124 00:07:42,199 --> 00:07:45,040 We are not going to collaborate in the race to AI, 125 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,480 and the US has decided that we're not going to 126 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:53,000 provide China the resources to compete. China has advantages in 127 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,879 this race. They have a lot more power and electricity, 128 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,879 They have a lot more talent, and the US has 129 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,600 the chips, and so we're not going to sell them 130 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,240 chips because we're in competition. We want our model companies 131 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,519 to succeed. We want our frontier models to be the 132 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,519 best for a lot of reasons, including the fact that 133 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,120 it has a lot of cybersecurity implications, so that ship 134 00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:19,079 is saled. To your point, the only point of cooperation 135 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:24,000 with China may be around putting some guardrails and some 136 00:08:24,079 --> 00:08:29,399 agreement on avoiding direct conflict with China around our models 137 00:08:29,439 --> 00:08:33,320 attacking them and vice versa. But in terms of the 138 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:39,960 environment of coopetition versus competition, we are competing with China. Yeah, 139 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,559 Taiwan is a big part of that geopolitical puzzle, right 140 00:08:43,639 --> 00:08:48,480 It's Iran, Russia and Taiwan are the pieces we want 141 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,200 China to de escalate tensions around the world. China has 142 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,639 an incentive to keep Taiwan as part of their long 143 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,320 term plan. As Unis was pointing out, part of the 144 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:02,759 way they do that is by keeping US preoccupied with Iran. 145 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,200 So the US wants to go there, de escalate Iran, 146 00:09:06,519 --> 00:09:10,480 hopefully get some progress towards solving the issues in Russia. 147 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,000 Let's not forget President Putin is visiting China next week 148 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,720 and Taiwan will be on the agenda. That may be 149 00:09:17,799 --> 00:09:18,919 part of the sensitivity. 150 00:09:19,039 --> 00:09:21,519 Speaker 1: So if AI isn't going anywhere because we're not going 151 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,559 to help them with AI, are they going to buy 152 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:26,279 our memory chips? 153 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,879 Speaker 4: So memory has not been as much of an issue 154 00:09:29,879 --> 00:09:32,159 in terms of the AI competition, in spite of the 155 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:36,360 fact that, as we've discussed, memory has huge exposure to AI, 156 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,480 which is why Micron, Sandists and others have done tremendously well. 157 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,480 China is building its own memory capacity, so there's going 158 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,200 to be some level of decoupling in memory as well. 159 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:53,000 They're building that infrastructure. For now, there's some selling into China. 160 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,440 Chinese memory chips do sell into the West increasingly, and 161 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:02,320 that will happen increasingly. There's more likely to be decoupling there. 162 00:10:02,639 --> 00:10:05,360 Maybe they'll try to settle some short term issues around 163 00:10:05,399 --> 00:10:09,279 back and forth, but those are not necessarily as critical 164 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,919 to the AI buildout. So it's a different, different interaction 165 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:14,240 than around GPUs. 166 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: This is why I get concerned when the pointy heads 167 00:10:18,799 --> 00:10:22,440 under the Dome in Washington decide they want to regulate 168 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:29,039 and clamp down on Google and Oracle and Meta and Microsoft, 169 00:10:29,159 --> 00:10:32,799 and the list goes on. We're in competition with China. 170 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,039 They want to catch up with us. We are ahead 171 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:40,000 of them, and so that's what this meeting is all about. 172 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,799 The President of the US and the President of China 173 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,799 are going to be talking tech more than they are 174 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,200 talking about Iran. So let's get caught up on what 175 00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:54,240 is going on with the war. It is on pause. 176 00:10:55,039 --> 00:11:00,919 Brett McGirk, the advisor to for presidents on Middle East policy, says, 177 00:11:00,919 --> 00:11:01,759 we're in a stalemate. 178 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 5: Comes down to the straight up our moves and we're 179 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,440 in a stalemate. I mean that is the bottom lines. 180 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:11,759 The stalemate of the strait and diplomacy is deadlocked. Iran 181 00:11:11,799 --> 00:11:14,519 has asymmetrical advantage. They can basically shoot a drone at 182 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,519 any ships and those ships will go through. And we 183 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,720 have our blockade which is increasing economic pressure on Iran. 184 00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:22,639 But that's basically where we are. And in a stalemate 185 00:11:22,879 --> 00:11:24,840 you have three very difficult options. Number One, you can 186 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,320 endure and have a test of wills, and the economic 187 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,960 pressure will compound on Iran, but they don't really care 188 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,039 about that, the decision makers and the guards, and the 189 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,559 economic pressure will compound in the global economy. So you 190 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:40,639 can endure test of wills, you can concede. President Trump 191 00:11:40,639 --> 00:11:43,679 can decide I'm going to concede to Iran's demands and 192 00:11:43,759 --> 00:11:47,279 accept their new sovereignty over the strait, which Iran is 193 00:11:47,279 --> 00:11:49,679 now calling it in their media. I think that'd be 194 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,480 a very bad outcome. Or you can fight and try 195 00:11:53,519 --> 00:11:57,480 to impose military conditions that allows ships to pass. That 196 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,720 is extremely extremely difficult, and they're looking at that. But 197 00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:05,559 that's a difficult proposition. That's where we are. The asterisk 198 00:12:05,799 --> 00:12:09,039 is a trip to China and whether whether she Ji 199 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,559 in Pin can try to break this open, I doubt it. 200 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:14,840 I also think that would be a bad outcome because 201 00:12:14,919 --> 00:12:17,840 Jesi in Pin would like to be the peace broker. 202 00:12:17,879 --> 00:12:21,080 He understands power, he knows President Trump has something that 203 00:12:21,759 --> 00:12:24,840 he might want opening the strait. It's also in China's interest. 204 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,080 But for China to kind of broke her something here first, 205 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,679 I think is unlikely. Second, I also don't think that 206 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,279 would be a great outcome. So stalemate very difficult. 207 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,399 Speaker 1: So there are a number of Middle East analysts, middle 208 00:12:39,399 --> 00:12:43,039 East consultants, middle East experts, and they always break things 209 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,919 down into well, you can do this or this or this. 210 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,639 They break things down into threes. So there's Brett McGirt 211 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:54,759 breaking it down into threes, not with great choices. But 212 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:59,360 what about the whole process of the president meeting in Beijing. 213 00:12:59,759 --> 00:13:02,840 What's it going to look like, what's going to happen? 214 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,279 Speaker 5: I think pageantry. I think you'll have a lot of 215 00:13:05,399 --> 00:13:10,240 kind of already pre cooked announcements on substance. I'm trying 216 00:13:10,279 --> 00:13:11,399 to think through. 217 00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:14,039 Speaker 1: Step back. 218 00:13:14,279 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 5: Ideally, what the United States of America should be doing 219 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,960 in this situation is going to our comparative advantage which 220 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,159 we have which China does not have, and that is 221 00:13:22,279 --> 00:13:26,039 rallying allies and building a coalition calling on Ran to 222 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,919 open the strait. That would be a military coalition and 223 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,759 a diplomatic coalition. Right now, are very isolated, and China 224 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,200 knows that. In a normal world, you would try to 225 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,000 say to xesiin Ping in the Chinese China gets about 226 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,399 fifteen percent of its oil from Iran. Most of Iran's 227 00:13:42,399 --> 00:13:45,840 exports go to China. China has an interest here, so 228 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,360 work with us to get back to that status quo 229 00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:51,039 in the Strait. But I think chesiin Ping would want 230 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,240 something in return for that very transactional so it's hard 231 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,480 to see that. I don't see the legwork being done 232 00:13:57,879 --> 00:14:00,440 for that outcome in the next seventy two hours. 233 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: But what about the war, Yeah, the one that we 234 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:08,960 have temporarily forgotten about. Will missiles fly? Will we start 235 00:14:09,159 --> 00:14:15,120 a military attack in Iran while the president is in China? 236 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 5: I doubt it. I think I think this will play 237 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,360 out over the course of this week. I don't see 238 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:23,639 the urgency. The Iranians could also launch a military operation. 239 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,600 They can always launch a missile or drone or something. 240 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,120 I also think they'll try to play a cool as 241 00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:31,519 this bilateral summit happens. So no, I think this week 242 00:14:31,559 --> 00:14:34,240 you'll see diplomacy, you'll see the pageantry, But then we're 243 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:35,639 going to be where we are at the end of 244 00:14:35,639 --> 00:14:37,000 this week, will be where we were at the end 245 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,320 of last week and the week before, in a stalemate 246 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,120 in the straight up. Our moves compound the economic pressure 247 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,399 and really no way out. And then you come back 248 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,039 to those three options you endure. You can concede the demands, 249 00:14:48,799 --> 00:14:51,879 or you can try to pursue a military operation to 250 00:14:51,919 --> 00:14:56,639 try to put increased pressure on Iran. Very difficult, difficult options. 251 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,080 I would try to build that international coalition though I 252 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,000 think that's important Human Security Council resolution. What Iron is 253 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,159 doing in the Strait is totally illegal international law by 254 00:15:06,159 --> 00:15:11,320 any standard measure. There's a classic international Human Security Council issue. 255 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,080 But you need the Chinese and the Russian for that 256 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,080 because they can veto. So you could see some diplomacy 257 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,480 coming together. I hope, I hope we do that. But 258 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,720 right now against stalemate and the straight that's where we are, all. 259 00:15:22,679 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: Right, So stalemate is the word of the week. Sounds 260 00:15:26,039 --> 00:15:30,320 like probably longer. The National Security advisor in Trump one 261 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,240 point zero was General H. R. McMaster and he weighs 262 00:15:34,279 --> 00:15:35,240 in this shouldn't be. 263 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,559 Speaker 6: A surprise to anybody, I don't think. I mean, the 264 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,000 Irani regime remains in tragigen. Look at how many off 265 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,080 wraps they drove past, you know, under Ayatola Homine now 266 00:15:44,159 --> 00:15:47,120 under his son. And so I think we're up against 267 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:52,320 is the intrajugence of a regime that retains this permanent 268 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,799 hostility you know to the Great Satan, you know, the 269 00:15:54,879 --> 00:15:58,200 United States, you know, the Little Satan Israel and it's 270 00:15:58,279 --> 00:16:01,120 Arab neighbors, and and I think with this demonstrates is 271 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:05,519 there can't be peace in the region. Or security, sadly 272 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,039 for the Iranian people, until there's a fundamental change in 273 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:10,279 the nature of this regime. 274 00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:14,879 Speaker 1: Well, now he's singing my song, which is change the regime, 275 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,039 and I mean not just move the deck chairs around, 276 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,080 take out the people that are running at least the IRGC. 277 00:16:22,559 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 6: Well, I don't know if we can change it. The 278 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,759 Iranic people can change it, but what we can do 279 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,159 is continue to go after their capability to project power 280 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,879 outside of its borders. And this is of course having 281 00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:36,440 to do with their missile drone strike complex. This is 282 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,919 their ability to affect the straight of Hormuves and the 283 00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:42,960 Persian Gulf. And yes, I believe that isn't our capability. 284 00:16:43,559 --> 00:16:45,080 Does it come without cost or risk? 285 00:16:45,519 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: Heck no. 286 00:16:46,399 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 6: But you know, I still think cost and risk of 287 00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:51,480 inaction in this latest phase of a forty seven year 288 00:16:51,519 --> 00:16:54,840 war would have far exceeded the cost and risks of 289 00:16:54,879 --> 00:16:58,480 this ongoing operation because what they were doing is clear. 290 00:16:58,759 --> 00:17:02,639 They were building this arsenal of missiles and drones really 291 00:17:02,679 --> 00:17:06,960 a conventional shield behind which they could develop a nuclear weapon. 292 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,240 And so I think, you know, the stakes are high, 293 00:17:09,559 --> 00:17:13,160 But I'll say there's also been Anderson a big disparity 294 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,680 I think between the you know, the massive damage that 295 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,240 has been done to this regime, its military capabilities, and 296 00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:23,359 the portrayal like of Iran having some kind of an advantage. 297 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,960 I mean, I think Iran really isn't a desperate situation. 298 00:17:27,079 --> 00:17:30,839 You see this with golliboss message, right, Golliball thinks that 299 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,279 we just don't have the backbone, you know, to see 300 00:17:33,279 --> 00:17:35,519 this thing through. You know, they've been conditioned to believe 301 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,680 this regime has in a way that they just detest, 302 00:17:40,279 --> 00:17:43,599 you know, the United States, that we are weak, we're decadent, 303 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,640 we're divided, and our Achilles Heel is really our national will. 304 00:17:48,079 --> 00:17:50,640 I think the advantage that was it for over four decades, 305 00:17:51,039 --> 00:17:53,680 we never acted like we knew what the return address 306 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:58,000 was for all the damage, harm, loss of life that 307 00:17:58,039 --> 00:18:01,720 they inflicted on on United State dates citizens, you know, 308 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,200 for going back to the Beabiru bombings in nineteen eighty three. Heck, 309 00:18:05,279 --> 00:18:08,519 go back to the hostage taking it in nineteen seventy nine. 310 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,400 The massive amounts of kidnappings and murders or I go 311 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,240 over one hundred and twenty murders in Europe, you know, 312 00:18:15,319 --> 00:18:18,119 for example, the Transnational terrorist Network, the bombing of a 313 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,480 Jewish community center in Argentina. 314 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: So he goes on talking about how bad we tend 315 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,799 to forget just how evil the Iranian leaders are and 316 00:18:27,839 --> 00:18:32,720 how many people they have killed, including Americans. Admiral James 317 00:18:32,759 --> 00:18:34,519 Gravita's former NATO commander. 318 00:18:35,319 --> 00:18:38,319 Speaker 7: He also weighs in, and you had my good friend 319 00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:42,720 hr McMaster on earlier. I think the Iranians have a 320 00:18:42,759 --> 00:18:47,839 lot of capacity to absorb paid. They're like the Russians, correct, 321 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,519 and they're degraded, but they still have capacity. And think 322 00:18:52,559 --> 00:18:55,920 one day in the life of Ivan Denisovich the Russian 323 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,519 souls who need some book. Like Russians, Iranians can take 324 00:18:59,519 --> 00:19:01,960 a lot of pace. And I think the president needs 325 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,200 to factor that into his thinking of two clocks ticking. 326 00:19:05,799 --> 00:19:10,480 The clock over President Trump justifiably and correctly, are the 327 00:19:10,559 --> 00:19:15,559 midterms deeply unpopular, war gas prices. He has to respond 328 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,960 to that the clock over the Iranians maybe moving a 329 00:19:20,039 --> 00:19:25,400 little slower because your point, they don't care about their people. 330 00:19:25,839 --> 00:19:28,920 Oh my gosh, do you think possibly they're reading Politico 331 00:19:29,039 --> 00:19:31,960 every day? Yeah, they definitely are. They know this is 332 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,880 coming and they will use that to their advantage. He 333 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,279 has three options. One is kind of a throwaway. But 334 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,319 he could simply walk away and he could say we've 335 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:46,559 degraded their military. I'm satisfied, will monitor the nuclear material. 336 00:19:47,319 --> 00:19:49,720 I'm walking away from this. I don't think he'll do that. 337 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:54,000 Bad option number two, he can go back to massive strikes. 338 00:19:54,599 --> 00:19:58,039 That's a bad option because it's expensive, it's unclear how 339 00:19:58,079 --> 00:20:03,200 fast that'll actually work, and it is again accelerating a 340 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,839 deeply unpopular war. So door number three, where he's probably 341 00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:10,920 going to land, is continue the blockade, try to put 342 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,799 economic pressure on the Iranians. But the problem with that 343 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,240 is what we've been discussing. They can take a lot 344 00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:21,960 of pain. Their clock is moving slower than our clock. 345 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 1: So there you go. You got the three options again. 346 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,240 They always break it down into three. So we wait 347 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,359 and we see what happens. Probably nothing this week, but 348 00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:36,160 it's worth obviously keeping an eye on. As far as 349 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:42,319 the economy today, we got the Consumer Price Index the CPI, 350 00:20:42,519 --> 00:20:46,920 that is inflation for the month of April, and it 351 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:52,359 was three point eight percent. That is the highest in 352 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,200 three years. The core rate when you take out food 353 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:57,960 and energy and people go, what are you taking that 354 00:20:58,079 --> 00:21:00,359 up for? Well, you have to eat and you have 355 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:05,000 to either heat or cool your home. So you take 356 00:21:05,039 --> 00:21:07,319 that out to see what are all the other things 357 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,720 going up as well, and the answer is yes, they 358 00:21:10,759 --> 00:21:14,880 are two point eight percent, which is forty percent above 359 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,759 the target rate. And when you look at some of 360 00:21:18,799 --> 00:21:23,440 the areas that are the highest from the Bureau of 361 00:21:23,519 --> 00:21:28,160 Labor Statistics, gasoline obviously, let me go down the BLS 362 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:32,480 chart because there's a lot of plus threes, plus fours, 363 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,440 minus twos, minus threes, all that, and then all of 364 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:41,960 a sudden, there's a big standout here. Gasoline all types 365 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:46,519 up twenty eight percent just in the month of April. 366 00:21:47,279 --> 00:21:51,559 Fuel oil up fifty four percent just in the month 367 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:57,680 of April, electricity up six point one percent. I mean, 368 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:02,480 these are big, big numbers. Transportation services of four point 369 00:22:02,559 --> 00:22:05,640 three percent just in the month of a These aren't annually, 370 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,400 it's this is the month of April. So you look 371 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:15,680 the top three are gas, airfares, and an interesting third category, 372 00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:20,519 fresh fruit and vegetables. They're way up. All of them 373 00:22:20,519 --> 00:22:23,519 are way up because well, fresh fruit and vegetables is 374 00:22:23,559 --> 00:22:26,640 because they have to be transported from the farm to 375 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:32,359 the grocery store. So it was not surprising. But we're 376 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:37,480 back to that problem of inflation is now running hotter 377 00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:41,519 than wage growth, so your wages are not keeping up 378 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:47,599 with inflation. The home buying selling business, real estate business. 379 00:22:48,039 --> 00:22:52,240 April existing home prices up of sales, I should say, 380 00:22:52,319 --> 00:22:56,279 up one percent, that's it. This is usually very strong 381 00:22:56,319 --> 00:22:59,759 in the spring selling season, with the sales up only one. 382 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,759 Mark Sandy, who is the chief economist over at Moodies, 383 00:23:04,799 --> 00:23:06,000 reacted this way. 384 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,079 Speaker 8: Well, it's increasingly broad based sea. I mean, obviously the 385 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,680 energy prices are up and that's flowing through in terms 386 00:23:11,759 --> 00:23:14,880 of airfares, and you're starting seat in terms of grocery 387 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,200 prices because of the cost of transporting food from the 388 00:23:18,279 --> 00:23:21,880 court or the farm to the sore shelf. But you're right, 389 00:23:22,039 --> 00:23:26,039 it does feel like the inflationary effects are broadening out 390 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,480 and will impact the prices more broadly. Core good inflation 391 00:23:30,599 --> 00:23:33,200 was up strongly as well. And it's not just about 392 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,400 the war and Iran and the higher energy prices, but 393 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,039 it's also about the tariff and the pass through there 394 00:23:38,079 --> 00:23:41,839 that continues. So yeah, inflation obviously is high and the 395 00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:45,839 direction of travel feels disconcerting. Well for the fact it's 396 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,000 you know, obviously very difficult. You know, what do they 397 00:23:49,039 --> 00:23:52,680 do do they respond to the to the effects on 398 00:23:52,759 --> 00:23:56,279 the economy and on jobs, you know, the weakened economy 399 00:23:56,319 --> 00:23:58,519 because of the effects of the higher energy prices on 400 00:23:58,519 --> 00:24:01,200 consumer spending and the economy more broadly. 401 00:24:01,599 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 5: That would argue for lower rates. 402 00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 8: Or do they focus on the higher inflation and the 403 00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:11,519 fact that inflation expectations feel like they're drifting higher as well, 404 00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,039 that would argue for higher rates. So you know, they're 405 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,599 kind of stuck in between, and it's just reinforcing the 406 00:24:16,599 --> 00:24:19,279 same dynamics that are resulting from the higher terraces, which 407 00:24:19,279 --> 00:24:22,880 are also weighing on economic growth and raising inflation. So 408 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,160 you know, at this point, I suspect they just to 409 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,799 stay on hold. That's the widespread expectation. I think that's 410 00:24:28,799 --> 00:24:31,319 the right expectation, but you know, obviously a lot of 411 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,599 risk around that. I will say that I think the 412 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,599 deciding factor for the FED will be inflation expectations if 413 00:24:36,599 --> 00:24:39,000 they do continue to with hire, and you know, there's 414 00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:41,200 different ways of measuring that. My favorite is looking at 415 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,440 break evens. They're on the high side of where they've 416 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,240 been historically. If they break out any further, I think 417 00:24:46,279 --> 00:24:48,599 at that point then the FED will likely focus on 418 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,119 the inflation start raising interest rates as opposed to cutting them. 419 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,119 And at this point, Fild and investors are expecting that. 420 00:24:54,759 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: No, they aren't. But he's not the first one to 421 00:24:57,279 --> 00:24:58,960 talk about the fact that the Fed may not be 422 00:24:59,079 --> 00:25:03,960 lowering but instead be hiking interest rates within not the 423 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,440 near future, but in the foreseeable future because of the 424 00:25:07,519 --> 00:25:11,039 fact that inflation is drifting higher, and even though it's 425 00:25:11,079 --> 00:25:17,160 centered on gasoline and airfares and transportation of food and 426 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:22,039 vegetables to the store, it's spreading out into a lot 427 00:25:22,079 --> 00:25:25,319 of other categories as well. And that is the concern 428 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,279 that will lead to the Fed hiking interest rates. And 429 00:25:28,319 --> 00:25:33,160 can you imagine if Kevin Warsh gets in, there's the 430 00:25:33,279 --> 00:25:38,079 new FED chairman, and starts, well, he doesn't lower interest rates. 431 00:25:38,079 --> 00:25:41,880 In fact, the President will be apoplectic if he starts 432 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,279 raising interest rates because the President wants them to go down, 433 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,920 which would be a big mistake in the based on 434 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,799 where the economy is right now, we've got inflationary pressures 435 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:59,960 drifting higher. So what about the Joneses. How are they doing? Yeah, 436 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,640 your neighbors, your family, your friends, all of that, how 437 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,799 are they doing well? Bank of America they have a 438 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:13,119 lady runs this program that they have where they basically 439 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,759 go through without looking at names. They go through and 440 00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:21,000 see where the income is growing, where the spending is going, 441 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,839 where the credit card charges are coming from, all of that. 442 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,960 Her name is Liz Kreesberg. They have seventy million consumer 443 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,440 bank accounts that they can check. Listen to some of 444 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,799 the observations that she makes from the month of April. 445 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:38,640 Speaker 9: You know, one of the things that I think people 446 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,920 are going to think is it's only strong because of 447 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,839 gas prices, right, And if you strip out gas, you 448 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,640 still saw spend and grow by four percent, which was 449 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,480 an acceleration over the three point six percent x gas 450 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,279 in March and in February. So it wasn't just strength 451 00:26:53,599 --> 00:26:56,839 because higher prices at the pump. That being said, the 452 00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,960 resilience is uneven. It's being driven by higher income consumers, 453 00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:05,559 and we are starting to see preliminary signs of the 454 00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:07,759 lower and the middle income consumer getting squeezed. 455 00:27:07,799 --> 00:27:08,640 Speaker 2: What kind of signs. 456 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,039 Speaker 9: So the easiest way I think to think about it 457 00:27:11,079 --> 00:27:14,119 is if you look at where spending is. So higher 458 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,240 income consumers their spending growth was around five percent. Lower 459 00:27:17,319 --> 00:27:20,759 income consumers they went up three point one Okay, Now, 460 00:27:20,799 --> 00:27:23,039 compare that to how much money they have coming in 461 00:27:23,079 --> 00:27:26,599 because we look at the wage data too. Higher income consumers, Remember, 462 00:27:26,599 --> 00:27:29,880 they're spending five Their wages were up six percent. That's 463 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,880 the highest growth we've seen in years. But their wages 464 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,759 are outpacing they're spending. Now, let's look at the lower 465 00:27:35,759 --> 00:27:38,640 income consumer. Their wages increased, but they went from one 466 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,039 to one and a half percent, so that's less than 467 00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:44,000 half of where their spending is. So they are getting 468 00:27:44,039 --> 00:27:47,519 squeezed because their wages aren't keeping up with what's going on. 469 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: We talk about the K shaped economy where the upper 470 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,319 income people are doing all the buying. 471 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 7: No, the. 472 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,799 Speaker 1: Lower and middle income people are also spending. The problem 473 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,839 is is their wages are not going up as fast 474 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:07,279 as they're spending. The wealthier incomes, their wages are going 475 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:08,640 up faster than they're spending. 476 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:09,640 Speaker 2: A couple of things. 477 00:28:09,759 --> 00:28:13,640 Speaker 9: One from a spending perspective, they're pulling back on discretionary 478 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,000 so we're not seeing that overall, but within the lower 479 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,119 income consumer, they are pulling back on their discretionary spending. 480 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,240 And they do have buffers to help kind of bridge 481 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:23,920 this gap right now, and they've got them in a 482 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,319 couple of different places. They've got deposits, they've got savings, right, 483 00:28:27,599 --> 00:28:30,920 they've got tax refunds which we can really drill into, 484 00:28:31,039 --> 00:28:33,839 and then they also have, you know, potentially credit. And 485 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,640 when we look at credit overall and the aggregate credit 486 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,519 card utilization, it's kind of at the same level it's 487 00:28:39,559 --> 00:28:43,480 been since the kind of twenty tens, since before the pandemic. 488 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,279 But for the lower income consumer and for the consumer 489 00:28:46,319 --> 00:28:48,759 that's not paying off their bill every month right the revolver, 490 00:28:49,079 --> 00:28:52,440 you are seeing their credit utilization take up. So that's 491 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,440 one way that they're funding it. It's not at dangerous levels, 492 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,640 but it is higher than the aggregate. The other thing 493 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,559 to think about in terms offers is tax refunds, were 494 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,799 you know, just finished up April, so most people have 495 00:29:03,799 --> 00:29:06,599 gotten their tax refunds. What we have seen so far 496 00:29:07,319 --> 00:29:10,400 is only about twenty percent of the tax refunds went 497 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,160 to spending fifty percent. Just about fifty percent went to 498 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,079 increase savings, so that is something that can help support this. 499 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,440 And then about a quarter a little over a quarter 500 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,240 was used to pay down debt, so we haven't that 501 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,200 that buffer, that catalyst from tax refunds isn't totally gone, 502 00:29:27,599 --> 00:29:30,039 but it is something that is not is not going 503 00:29:30,119 --> 00:29:31,000 to infitt it, says. 504 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,839 Speaker 1: I love these numbers because that really we hear all 505 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:39,319 the anecdotal stories. But twenty percent of the tax refunds 506 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,160 were spent by the lower income folks. They used it 507 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:48,799 to buy things, but fifty percent went to their savings accounts, 508 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,680 and then twenty five percent went to pay down debt, 509 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:57,240 which again she says, credit card usage is up, but 510 00:29:57,319 --> 00:30:02,200 it's not at dangerous levels. The big item was the 511 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,160 big beautiful bill that was passed last year. It did 512 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:10,799 lead to much larger tax refunds, but the problem with 513 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,680 that is, like she said, that was mostly people have 514 00:30:13,799 --> 00:30:17,319 their tax returns filed by April fifteenth. Some people go 515 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:24,480 on extension, but the refunds have come in and again 516 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,039 most of half of it went to savings. So this 517 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,599 is it just shows how resilient the consumer is based 518 00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:35,799 on these seventy million accounts at Bank of America. So 519 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:42,079 even though the inflation report wasn't wasn't terrible, but inflation 520 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:46,200 not Like I said, the CPI three point eight percent, 521 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,880 that's the highest in three years. That goes back to 522 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,920 the second year of Joe Biden's era. We're back, not 523 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,880 as high as it went then, but were the highest 524 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,400 since three point eight percent. You got to go back 525 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,839 to two thousand in twenty two. But I'll tell you 526 00:31:02,839 --> 00:31:08,839 who did not like it was Wall Street. The market today, Well, 527 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,480 look what we've got to chew on. We've got the 528 00:31:11,519 --> 00:31:14,039 President on his way to China. We haven't we don't 529 00:31:14,079 --> 00:31:16,720 yet know yet how that's going to go. Probably a 530 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,960 bunch of ceremony. We've got the war on a stalemate, 531 00:31:20,319 --> 00:31:23,680 and we've got the inflation report showing that inflation is 532 00:31:24,079 --> 00:31:29,119 drifting higher. So Wall Street today mostly drifted lower, not 533 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,319 the Dow. The Dow is up fifty six to forty 534 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,079 nine thousand and seven sixty. The S and P fell twelve, 535 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,559 the Nasdaq fell one hundred and eighty five, Gold fell 536 00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:47,279 seven dollars plus down to forty seven twenty one, and 537 00:31:47,359 --> 00:31:50,400 the price of oil continues to go higher. This is 538 00:31:50,519 --> 00:31:56,200 West Texas Intermediate, up three dollars, back above one hundred 539 00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:00,559 dollars at one two and some change. So that's it 540 00:32:00,599 --> 00:32:04,200 for today. Thank you for coming by. We will be 541 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,039 back again tomorrow. Hope to see you there then