Speaker 1: It is Wager Talk Today for Thursday, September the twenty fifth.
I am Steve Merrill filling in for Andy Lang. I'll
be here today and tomorrow on Friday. Andy has gone golfing,
well technically, I think he's watching a golf tournament and
he handicaps golf, so he's still working the great show. Nonetheless,
we've got Yanni the Greek. We've also got Dave Mason
from bed Online and Joe Verneri. I haven't seen joanah Whall.
That's gonna be fun. Looking forward to that segment as well,
and also might talk a little bit Thursday night football
at the end here Seahawks Cardinals. Great show. Let's get
right to it. He's not Gianny the Talent, He's Yanni
the Greek. Nobody on Wager Talk to you who pronounces
it correct except for me and Dan. Alexander are a
great producer. Johnny. Great to see you, my friend. And
what do you have for the Steam report here on Thursday?
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me brother? Yeah, busy, busy, busy couple.
I'm so excited, Like when is this kind of a
couple of days ahead? I get so hyped up because
we're betting everything real quickly. Let's start off in baseball
for you guys. People are overlooking baseball, but there's a
ton of value. I actually sent out two four and
a three percent to my subscribe It's been a couple
of days since we saw multiple groups line up on
the same baseball plays, but we got a little of
that today. Here's some of the moves. Nine oh two
Cincinnati minus one sixty nine oh three, Dodgers minus one
fifty nine, ten Baltimore plus one ten nine to twelve
over seven and a half at minus one twenty five
Minnesota in Texas. And also want to tell you three
series bets, actually four series bets that are still pending,
that they bet before the first game.
Speaker 3: They taped Kansas.
Speaker 2: City from minus one oh five all the way minus
one twenty two. They're one and one they need to
win today. They have the Mets at plus one forty. Okay,
they're now favored today. They have them, they're split one
in one. They need them today. Texas. They laid one
to forty on Texas to win that series. Texas is
favored today as well, and they have the Dodgers to
win that series at minus one seventy. Also one to one,
So those four all need a w Today. I'm paying
attention to see if they line up on any of
those because that's key. Historically, when we have had a
series bet pending and the third game is the determinator
and they bet that in the third game, the results
have been phenomenal, like when they're when they already have
a position, but they want more on that position instead
of trying to scalp it or middle it. As we say,
that's real gold. So pay attention to your odds logic screen,
your wager talk screen, and look at those four teams.
See if they're getting any kind of love from the
betting syndicates. They usually do well real quickly. College football,
and don't forget to watch bet on It. We went
through college football, we went through NFL. But as always
Thursdays is when the totals come in, and I fired
a bunch of totals today, sent a couple out to subscribers.
Here's what I could share with you as far as
college football goes. Weekday game East Carolina minus three and
a half and four move over to Saturday, one twelve,
Bowling Green plus to ten and a half one twenty
three over forty two and a half San Diego State
in northern Illinois, one thirty seven, Duke minus five and
five and a half, one fifty one, Appleation State plus seventeen.
Where are we one twenty six, Arkansas plus six and
plus five, one ninety five over Oregon and Penn State
over fifty one and a half Oregon and Penn State,
one fifty nine, Cincinnati plus six and a half and
plus five and a half, twoh two Washington plus nine
and a half and nine Also in that same Washington
game went under fifty one and a half Ohio State
and Washington. So we got you covered with college football
and MLB, a couple of NFL. Again, it's real early
for NFL, but we saw some of the look aheads
get hit and then a little followed through. We saw
that happen with two fifty one Minnesota three Philadelphia, two
seventy six Green Bay and the under, and we saw
it with Denver as well and the last total Jacksonville,
San Fran the overnight. The look ahead at forty five
got hit. The opener of forty seven got hit. That
one's opposite the public. I talked about that on bet
On It already starting to see some money come in
on the under. So we covered baseball, covered college football,
covered some NFL. There's even UFC on Saturday. What a
weekend for betters. Man, Jump on board. We're gonna have
some fun these next few days.
Speaker 1: It's almost like September is here. It's next September is
among us all of a sudden. Yeah, I haven't seen
you for a few weeks, really since the regular season started.
What is the initial takes the first few weeks of
pro football, college football? Anything different from years past?
Speaker 3: No, No, not not really.
Speaker 1: The the.
Speaker 2: What I'm what I'm seeing is mostly in the NFL
is books have done a good job. I mean you
see last week some of the most one sided bet
games didn't get there. And that's not a recipe for success,
like fading the public. People ask that all the time.
I see it on shows. I get DM like, what
do the books need? What do the books need? The
books don't need anything. They just need to open their
doors and let betters go in and bet. But they're
gonna do just fine. But I have been paying attention
to some of those really one sided bet matchups, those
standalone games, and they just have not done well. If
you're able to pick off some of those biases, especially
some recency bias. Uh, there's a lot of value in
that NFL board because I'm seeing a lot of like
overreactions off the look ahead. That's what's key. When when
the the opener after the look ahead isn't much of
an adjustment, it kind of tells you their own point.
But when you see the look ahead and then the
opener be two two and a half points different, that
just shows you it's not an efficient market just yet,
and it's beatable right now. And you're seeing that with
the NFL, where I think as the season progresses, we
won't see as much of that.
Speaker 1: And Jonny, we have so got you. I've got a
question from Sean Michael about tonight's Thursday night game between
the Cardinals and Seahawks. We've definitely seen a reverse line
move on this. I did a look ahead video on
Monday afternoon for this game and it was Arizona minus
one pick them in some spots. The quandary for me
is that I feel like Seattle is the better team,
which I think favors teams on the short week, Yet
I also think the home team has an advantage on
the three day turn aroun because they don't have to travel.
But we've definitely seen money coming in on Seattle. What's
interesting is I read all the comments. I reply back.
As you know on the videos, it's been like ninety
five percent Seahawk loved the last couple of days when
I've been reading the comments, So not a surprise we've
seen it now go to one and a half two cardinals.
I guess now make a decent teaser spot here plus
one and a half plus two.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say. I
think that's a phenomenal spot to tease, especially when you
see the total. I kind of lean over to be
honest with you, even though they see some short money
go under. And again, when you're betting teasers, your prediction
should not be very relevant. I meaning you're using a
teaser simply because it's offering you the numbers to where
you're placing a plus ev bet, the side almost becomes irrelevant.
So it should have nothing to really do with your handicap.
And this is the perfect situation where it doesn't matter
whether I like Arizona or I like Seattle. The bottom
line is tonight Arizona teased up to seven and a
half is a great leg one leg of a teaser.
The problem is you now have to find the second leg,
and between now and Sunday, there's a lot of things
that could change. And that's the negative of using these
Wong teasers early that later in the week that game
you locked in early may not be a Wong teaser anymore.
So what I tell better is is if you have
the opportunity to put in an open end teaser, then
you want to unload on a spotlight this. You want
to take a bigger position because now you can wait
till Sunday to close that second leg, and that's a
big advantage. But if you have to close that second
leg today, then I think you have to be a
little bit higher on your risk, like take less risk,
because again a lot of things could change between now
and Sunday. And what I would look at is for
those numbers that are like around two, if I'm going
to tease a dog up, I want it to be
like around plus two because the chances a bit moving
a whole point are lesser than moving a half a point,
meaning if it goes down the one and a half
or up to two and a half, it's still exactly
where it needs to be. Or I'm looking at that
dog around the favorite around at eight, because even if
it goes down to half a point, up a half
a point, I could still tease it. So if you're
going to look the tie, look for an eighth to
bring down or a two to bring up. If you
have to do a look ahead, close the leg of
a teaser a few days ahead.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you look at like the early kickoff on
Sunday at nine thirty am eastern overseas, right now, it's
two and a half minus fifteen the Vikings that very
well might be a three by kickoff on Sunday, which
technically wouldn't qualify anymore. One game that's interesting at one
o'clock eastern on Sunday is not my Washington commanders. At
the Falcons right now, they are minus one point favorite
across the border. But if you look at DraftKings, they've
got a one and a half at least of the
odds logic live on screen to show me that right now.
And then you look at Bookmaker, a sharp book has
the Falcons minus one. So even though a plus one
Atlanta doesn't qualify. Would you grab that plus one and
a half at DraftKings and make them plus seven and
a half since you're getting in the vantage line at
this point.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a bad bet, you know what
I mean. I just I've stuck to my rules and
it's done well. Like even we find ourselves Sunday in
the steam room where it's like, oh, can we kind
of use this one and it's like, I'm sorry, you know,
we got to stick to the rules, and like last
week it was like we only narrowed down to just
one teaser, but it won. So it's not a bad thing,
you know what I mean. And I've gotten really good
at being disciplined with them. Because someone asked in the chat,
I just saw, why not use the chargers now, because
it's not at the number where it's advantageous to tease
it at six and a half. Even if it moves
to seven, you're better off laying minus seven minus one
ten then teasing a minus seven. You have to be
very confident that the chargers are going to go up
to seven and a half or eight or higher, and
be very confident that they will use teaser protection with
the chargers. But knowing that there's already sharp betters willing
to take the Giants that may not happen. See, that's
the key. If it's a one sided game where you're
not getting any sharp bites on the other side, then
they're gonna tease protect it right away. But when they're
seeing nibbles on the other side, like they're seeing with
the Giants, that may not happen. So that's the negative
of using a team like the Chargers this far in
advance again, because if that doesn't go to seven and
a half or eight, just doesn't make a good make
for a good teaser.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll tell you another game that's interesting is you
know I mentioned DraftKings has that one and a half
hanging on the Falcons. We FanDuel does as well. Two
of the biggest books have Atlanta plus one and a half.
Everybody else has plus one. Even some pick coms out there.
There's another game like that of the Lake Cards Sunday.
Right now, most books are dealing the Raiders minus one.
There's even a pick them at bet online. DraftKings and
fandel once can have the Bears at plus one and
a half. So you know, right now you could take
a DraftKings or FanDuel and make a Bears and Falcons
teaser plus seven and a half when the market is
plus one everywhere else. You're getting two games that you
probably aren't going to get on Sunday for teasers. So
you know, it's a different way to look at it.
Like you said, these aren't going to technically give you
long teasers probably, but you're getting extra points, right, which
is still a good thing. I love those bets.
Speaker 2: It's good. I do it all the time when I
even when I just see a off market number, it's
exactly kind of what you're doing.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: If I see that the sharpest books all have minus
you know, two and a half, but I find a
rogue minus one, I'm gonna lay it trusting that the
two and a half is the right number, you know
what I mean. I do that all the time, and
again they're not locks, but historically you're gonna make money
doing that, you know what I mean. It's kind of
like guys that scalp. You're always you know, winning with
the square out and losing with the sharp side. You know,
Like if I scalp, I'm scalping off a pinnacle. I'm
scalping off apparently one of the sharp books. I'm always
gonna lose to them, and I'm gonna end up winning
with with the square side more times than not. So
that that's a perfect example of when you see a
rogue number like that, that's a plus EV bet. Like
there's it's impossible for a middle opportunity or a scalp
to be on the board and for one of the
sides to not be plus ev. It's a mathematical certainty
that once that that is offered on the board, there's
a plus V opportunity. And I think you nailed it
with those one and a half. That's the plus ev opportunity.
When the markets at pick them, you take that up
the seven and a half and win or lose. You
placed a great bet, man, that's the job. I love
that thinking, Steve, I love it.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And of course the key to teasers, he's got
to get both lines at the same book. So this
is a rare opportunity. We both DraftKings and Fan will
have those outlier one and a halfs and most of
our viewers probably have an account with one of those
two real quick, and we'll close it out. Juice has
gotten extremely high on teasers. You know, when you and
I started in the nineties, it was even money for
a little bit. Nobody probably believes that, and then it
was minus one ten for decades, like a straight bet, draft,
DraftKings fandor the two big ones. Wager Talk has their
policy basically based on theirs. I think we're like, at
what minus one thirty five now for a six point
teaser or something this season, that's like fifty seven percent
break even? At what point is there not value anymore
as six point teasers.
Speaker 2: After one twenty five? Because here, even at one twenty,
at one twenty, your edge is about two percent. Because
your break even six seventy four point one percent, and
you're going to hit about seventy. Your six percent will
be your win rate. So you have about a two
percent at minus one twenty and minus one twenty five.
That's cutting in about half. So anything worse than minus
one twenty five the teaser is no longer advantageous. You're
better off laying minus one ten on a straight bet.
I know there's gonna be examples where you think, fuck,
if I would have just teased it, it would have cashed.
But I promise you over and over again. It's not
a recipe for success. If you're never going to bet again,
then do it. But if you're gonna bet again, that's
not a way you're gonna make money in the market
doing it. So if you're laying more than one twenty
five on a six point teaser, it's an uphill battle
and you're not getting the best of it. Like now
you're hoping to just get lucky. So I would just
even pass. If your book is charging one thirties one
to thirty fives, don't even look at the teaser option
because they're just it's a terrible bet. You're better off
laying one ten all day.
Speaker 1: One, Final, Final, Final up. Question. Do you ever do
any higher teasers six and a half seven or even
like ten or fourteen, any of those bigger teasers at
any point? No?
Speaker 2: I did what's it called some of the bigger teasers,
Like we would do a three team three point three.
They were given three team six point teasers at plus
one eighty. That's like getting a two team six point taser.
Even money where the edge is like you know, six percent,
five and a half percent, that's gone. Now, that's like
if you look check out your books. Try to do
a three team six point taser, you're not getting plus
one eighty. So that was that's gone. And there was
a time where we were able to do six sixteen
six point teasers where they were paying more than they
should certain books. Credit shops were paying more than they should,
and we were betting those for maybe like two years.
But then, just like the soccer parlays, they figure it out.
You know, I remember the soccer parlays for three four years,
you could just parlay the tie with the under and
you could just print money. I mean, I swear to god.
I remember a Sunday where I was hoping that we
lost because we were up so much money on this book,
all these ties and unders. I was like, please don't
hit today on the last day because he's going to
stiff us like that. Once they see that there's an
opportunity for better to take advantage of, they block that
hole up really quickly. So yeah, that's what ends up happening.
Speaker 1: And I've got a question from a guy named Johnny
detroit Ace. He wants to know if you want the
steam room to be free for everyone this week and
or clients only.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let everybody in I'll be moving in.
Speaker 2: I'll be in the new place for the first day.
But yeah, let everybody in it. We're having a great
football season so far, and yeah, I want to be
there for everything in the NFL. So yeah, open it up, brother,
open it up.
Speaker 1: Awesome, we need a breaking news graphic from Dan Alexander.
Breaking news. You heard it first year on wager. Talking
to the steam room is free, so great, tell us
about the steam room since everybody watching can do it
this weekend.
Speaker 2: Yeah, come on in Sunday, We're gonna go through every
NFL game. So I tell you what I have on
the side on the total on the promps. Ten to
fifteen minutes before kickoff, we go over our teasers. We're
now seven and one on those teasers, back to back
winning weeks. And more importantly, you get to ask any
question you have. We go over year to date results,
look at our goal for the end of the year,
go over our money management or risk tolerance, the different
unit sizes and everything. And like I said, we're just
there to live, trade and answer questions. Make sure you
join me someday. It's a great experience. We'll have some
fun and make some money in the NFL. But first
after a big college football day. Oh and tonight five
percent on Thursday night football. It just happened that way.
Last week, we kicked off the week with a five
percent winter on Thursday Night. This week, I think we're
going to do the same thing. It warrants it. It
warrants it. So hopefully we kick off the week with
a big winner tonight and just keep rolling over. Brother.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Shoke show magazines giving you some credit on he's saying,
I have to give you credit. Back in April, he
said the Guardians were going to climb to the top eventually.
And that was back when Detroit was going to run
away with the division. I know the office doesn't want
to hear.
Speaker 2: Seventy percent of their games the whole year, thank you, brother.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So now Cleveland, what one game ahead? I guess
with about I think it's six games to go. We're
actually for Seattle.
Speaker 2: I need Seattle in the AL. That would be the
best sleeper for me and the Phillies. I have the
Phillies for a big ticket.
Speaker 1: Well, Seattle's locked that division and I don't know if
they're gonna get the buye. They've got eighty nine wins
there like one. Yeah, but see, the thing is the
two ninety win teams and one of them is gonna
be the wild card right now in the American League East.
So you've got a good shot again that bye and Mariners.
I was gonna say Seahawks. I'm in football mindset again.
Speaker 2: If I could get the Mariners in there, that's a
nice ticket.
Speaker 1: Awesome baseball football. You need the Greek and steam Room
for free. You heard it here first find out more good.
Speaker 2: Luck this weekend, bro, keep doing those videos. I love
to fade the public ones.
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 1: I'm going to see you tomorrow. I'm guest tosting tomorrow.
I forget you're a daily, A daily.
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, I'll see.
Speaker 1: We'll do this again in about twenty three hours Friday only. Okay, awesome.
We get a little Friday special tomorrow as well. So
once again, it's Yannie the Greek. Can find him at
wager Talk dot com, but believe it's wt dot buzz
slash vr for Vegas runner. Go to his page to
find out more about the free steam room this weekend.
All right, let's keep it rolling. Before we get to
Joe Rnary, I'm excited to see Joe, But I want
to let you know about some special offers at wager
Talk dot com right now. An extreme discounted price for
a one year all access from Indian all cappers, No
promo codes need it. It works out to ninety nine
dollars a month. That's just over three dollars a day
for every football, baseball, basketball best bet that I release,
or if you want other sports, check out hockey, golf, tennis,
MMA that other cappers release. Hey, why not get multiple cappers?
My recommendation would be to mix and match. I do football,
baseball and basketball. Yanni does MMA, he does you know,
Line Moves, he does Steam Smart Sharp Action Mix and
Andy Lang Andy's the propmaster. Great time to get multiple
cappers and lock him in for three hundred and sixty
five days at nights for just about three dollars a day.
It's about a dollar a play. No promo code need it.
Check it out right now. We also have some one
month three month specialis even a Weekend Warrior forty nine
dollars weekend Football pass on everyone's page. No promo codes
need it. Check it out right now at Wait your
Talk at dot com, all right, with no further Ado,
Let's bring on the man. Joe Vernieri, Joe, it has
been too long, my friend. I think they trudged schedule
a couple of sports grid spots, but they didn't happen.
I didn't do it on purpose, just didn't get the schedule.
Speaker 4: It's all right, because I'm I'm I'm up at five
o'clock in the morning during the morning show now anyway, Stave,
So there's a good chance that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only way it might happen is if you're
doing the two am and I just haven't gone to
bed yet. Might catch up. But glad to see your
hair's not grey, ye, because I see her doing a
show with the Pres every week, So that's that's good
to know. Tell us a little about that. Pres just
sent something yesterday. The show itself is on TikTok and
Instagram or something. Now I'm not even sure you're aware.
Speaker 4: No, no, no, I let Pres do all that because
you know how technical advanced he is, so I let
him handle all the social media. Uh No, we just
finished up, in fact, just recording. I think it just
got posted there. Arthur Caesar, myself and the press, and yeah,
Art gives us the daily rundown and of everything you
need in all what's happening over at the Westgate and
the book and all the moves, and then we mix
in a little Major League baseball, we talk college football, NFL,
so it's very part of the interruption time. Otherwise we'd
never be able to get pres off camera. So we
have to put a clock on him, you know how
that is.
Speaker 1: Put a bell on him is what we need to
do find out where he's going. But he's getting plenty
of camera time. I think he's addicted to this Sunday show.
I know you've been on the The End Zone Live show,
which is at one o'clock Eastern all the way through
the games. And of course he had an emotional breakdown
when the Eagles got to never in doubt front Door
cover on Sunday with the block field go return. And
what's crazy, of course about that, Joe is the guy
technically should have just gone down. They can't lose at
that point running it back, you theoretically could fumble and
have it to run back the other way. But that
was probably one of the worst good beats or bad
beats in the history of football, depending on what side
you're on. I just realized I've never interviewed you for
a show before. We've done probably a thousand shows together.
This little surreal Well, what are your thoughts on Thursday
Night football? Seahawks Cardinals. I talked to Yanni about how
this line is flip flop since I did a video
on it Monday. Arizona was picking on us one. Now
they're a one and a half two point home dog.
Not a surprise because almost ninety percent of the comments
in my video are saying Seahawks are passed. I used
the Seahawks. I think they're the better team, but the
game does make me a little worried to the public
being on the one side, and also the short week
in travel.
Speaker 4: Yeah, as a matter of fact, this was We discussed
this on the show with Art and I had him
walk us through what the progression was here. And it's
one of those rare times where yep, you've got a
lot of public interest in Seattle, he said, but it's
one of those games in which the pros and the
joes are aligned on Seattle. In fact, he's still expecting
the number to rise a little bit before kickoff in
favor of the Seahawks. And I think a lot of
it has to do with the fact of keep an
eye on the injury report. That secondary of the Cardinals
is banged up in a big way. They've also got
a couple of cluster injuries on the offensive line. I
don't know that they're going to be able to run
the ball with Benson against that front of Seattle. I
don't know that they're gonna be able to throw the
ball with the pressure that he is going to be
under as well. So given the fact that the Seahawks
have dominated this series, especially since McDonald has taken over, Steve,
I mean, they are eight and one straight up, five
and three against the number on the road with him
as their head coach. They've won the last seven against Arizona.
I just watched and covered this game on Sunday, Steve,
if I watched Arizona lose to the backups of the
forty nine ers in a hole, the injuries are an
issue and a concern because I can't believe Sam Donald.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now he
is one of the top rated most efficient quarterbacks through
three weeks of the NFL season. Here in all points
to Seattle. Having said that, I don't see how we're
getting an over in this game either. I think the
under might be the best fuck in this game.
Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you what if you think it's gonna
be low scoring with that forty three forty three and
a half, that makes the charge of the Cardinals rather
an even stronger teaser play like we are talking about
with Yanni. I think this line move does set Arizona
up now plus seven and a half or more as
a decent six point teezer. Seven straight wins I believe
for the Seahawks in this series, and as you mentioned,
the Arizona offense has definitely struggled at times this year,
even despite playing a pretty weak schedule. James Conner, the
leading rusher Cardinals over two thousand yards the last two years,
is out. As you mentioned, that's why Benson is going
to get the heavy lifting. But yeah, the public, the
Joe's and the pros on the Seattle Seahawks tonight. According
to Joe VERNII and Arthur de Caesar at the Westgate
Joe Big game tomorrow night on Friday, not my Virginia
Cavaliers against maybe your Florida State Seminoles. I was actually
at this game over twenty years ago. I've got a
ton of Florida State, a ton of Florida State along
here in Williamsburg, believe it or not, and we started
the Seminole Club and we went to this game, like
I think it was like two thousand and four. It
was a route, not a surprise. It's a pretty good
team this year, though, crusted a team called the Wooman
Mary Tribe a couple of weeks ago, gaining seven hundred
yards of offense. I turned the game on in the
middle of the third quarter between two baseball games. I
was at a tournament and it was fifty two to
seven and UVA had six hundred and twenty five offensive
yards early third quarter. They were like forty away from
the all time school record. That's how bad it was.
Florida State's been an offensive juggernaut as well. I did
a video for this game. I used the over fifty
nine earlier in the week. Didn't have my ten thousand
game simulation yet, but I've got that run now, so
I want to give everyone an update. I've only got
Florida State by two in this game, so I do
like Uba also now at plus seven or more. What
are your thoughts on this one.
Speaker 4: This is you know, Aret and I talked about this
during the week as well, because I thought all that
early Virginia money might be a headfake where, you know,
maybe we can get it down to six and a
half Steve before kickoff and then watch out because all
the seminole money will come back in over the top.
The problem with Florida State is they haven't actually played
a game since they beat Alabama and that was about
a month ago when they started this season. I don't
consider what they did to Kent States any sort of
competition whatsoever. But the reality is FSU is dominated this series,
but they haven't been great on the road or on
neutral site games here since twenty nineteen. They're eleven and
twenty one against the number in conference games since twenty
twenty one alone. So this historically, even though they have
beaten Virginia and they've kind of dominated them, hasn't been
actually a great situation as of late. And of course
we know this is the ultimate look ahead game because
guess who's on deck for Florida State next week. It's
the number two team in the country. It's the U
So it wouldn't shock me off Florida State. Maybe peeking
ahead here a little bit, but Chandler Marris your quarterback there,
My goodness. I mean they're averaging almost forty six points
a game right now. I don't know how in the
world we're betting on this thing going under. I can't
imagine sweating an under in this game, Steve. It's up
to about fifty nine and a half sixty, and I
still don't think that's high enough. I think we're getting
a ton of points and an old fashioned acc shootout
in this one.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Like I said, I like the over
fifty nine on Monday when I put that video out,
it's now fifty nine and a half sixty. I wouldn't
really call those key numbers. Kind of an uncharted territory
with sixty sixty one. I don't know if those are
key numbers. We don't have any research on that, but yeah,
these are two teams that could score it on their own.
And how crazy is this, Joe. After the twenty one
points last year against Georgia Tech and that opening loss overseas,
Florida State played eleven more games, ten of them were
against FBS teams. They scored sixteen or less points in
every one of those ten games last season. They have
a chance after their fourth game here to have more
points than all of last year combined. That's how improved
this offense us.
Speaker 4: So, I mean dus miles On effect right there with
a running quarterback that is perfectly set up for what
got smiles On wants to do here. So nobody, Steve
has been chasing points more than Florida State this year.
They have purposely been been crushing these teams here to
get those numbers and break every record known to mankinds.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like I said two weeks ago, UVA said, an
all time yardage record in school history over one hundred years,
and then last week they followed it up with almost
six hundred yards against Stanford. It was a decent team.
I mean, it's not a one double a team again,
So I like the offense here. I like the over
fifty nine and a half Joe Vernari, Steve Merril, the
two for one special here. It's got zero chance of
cashing now, but we'll see what happens. Joe. What else
you got going on? My man? It's great to catch
up with you. No, it is good, Steven.
Speaker 4: You know I'm looking forward to the postseason and Major
League Baseballs.
Speaker 3: We've got another best bet.
Speaker 4: Had the Red Sox in the first five and didn't
have to watch the second inning last night against Toronto.
Here got another game up in Major League Baseball for
nine dollars and my first five percent college football best bet,
a locked and loaded Steve. I don't put many of
these out, haven't yet, but this one, Yeah, this one
has to be bet this weekend in college football, so
looking forward to that as well.
Speaker 1: My goodness. If you want to get Jovenire's is that
your first five percenter you're saying this season?
Speaker 5: That is?
Speaker 1: That's it? Yeah? First one. That's pretty selective. What are
we four or five weeks in here? I will to
check that out, folks. Jover Naiary, he's the best. He's
up at five am cap in these games. He knows,
he knows what he's doing. Five percenter released at five
am Eastern Time. Can't lose Jovernirey water time dot Com.
All right, let's keep it rolling. Talk about some sharp information.
We had Yannie the great Jovernaiary. Now we've got Dave
Mason from bed Online, perhaps the sharpest sports book in
the world. In my opinion, Dave, and I've already seen
a couple of games which you guys are maybe leaning
a little bit different than the markets. What's going on?
What are your thoughts in this Seattle Arizona game? Joever
Naiy Arthur de Caesar from the Westgate said this week
that it's the Joe's and the pros on Seattle. I
did a preview on Monday, Arizona was minus one. Picked him.
Now they're plus one and a half two. It looks
like everyone loves Seattle tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, everybody does love Seattle. What is it?
Speaker 5: A seventy four percent of betters and seventy four percent
of cash as well as on the Seahawks currently laying
a point.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 5: Took some sharp action, most of it was earlier in
the week when when they were underdogs. Actually, so not
too much game day sharp action yet, but I'm sure
some will come. But yeah, we're gonna need the Cardinals
big tonight. It's going to be a big need to
start off the week. We finally won last Sunday Week
one and two we got we got our teeth kicked in,
but last Sunday we finally came back. So we're We're
hoping to continue that momentum into week four.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and usually week three and week four I feel
where those ugly underdogs start to cash a little bit.
I know with my faded the public video last week,
some of the biggest size were Green Bay, Dallas, Tampa.
You know, so obviously the public didn't do quite as
well last week as they had earlier. Let me ask
you real quick, I want to look at the college
game too. But Johanny and we were talking about NFL
teasers earlier. Now that the Cardinals have gotten to plus
one and a half, plus two in a lot of spots,
low scoring game, forty three to the total, I do
think they start to make a decent six point teaser.
How much since you started years ago has the teaser
industry changed? I mean I remember when they were even
money back in the nineteen nineties, and they were minus
one ten for decades after that. How much have you
had to change things to protect yourself with NFL teasers?
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have changes.
Speaker 5: If the industry have changed, you know, petters have gone
sharper and going through the key numbers of course, you know,
gives it better than advantage.
Speaker 3: So you did have to do you have to add
some juice over the years.
Speaker 5: Our six point two teamers are minus one ten or
minus one fifteen, depending what numbers you go through. But
I mean that's still that's that's still very good compared.
Speaker 3: To some shops these days.
Speaker 5: I mean, one shop out there is you gotta lay
minus one thirty five on an undamn sixteen teaser six
point taser two team teaser. So so yeah, I mean,
and they're they're you know, you're you're you're fighting those
teasers every weekend. I mean, there's using action on teasers
and then moneyline parlay's too than there are the straight wagers.
So you know, I always tweet out the splits for
the you know, the straight wagers, but that tells ten
percent of the story. You know that there's so many
moving parts sometimes it's hard to figure out what the
hell we do need?
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts in this college game tonight? We've
see a little bit movement on this as well. I
think East Carolina took some early money. Now it's been
a bit of a buy back. I don't know if
that's sharp action, if it's injury information. The Army quarterback
has been banged up on it, off this season. Army
at East Carolina's not on the ESPN.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we we currently have ECU lay in four.
Speaker 5: I mean we took two big sharp bets today this morning,
but on opposite side. He took ECU twenty seven thousand,
twenty seven thousand dollar bet on ECU minus four minus
one ten and then on the other side of Army
plus four and a half also also twenty seven thousand.
Speaker 3: So yeah, we got some two way sharp action. The
Beck that's two way as well. The Oval overall profit, I.
Speaker 5: Mean it's it's it's pretty even, so not a big
need right now, but there's still so much action you
have to come in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say that's very balanced action sharp, so
on each side on a four point line. How about
Friday's game we just talked about Florida State UVA. We
also have TCU, Arizona State, Houston, Oregon State. Three really
good games from now on Friday in college football.
Speaker 5: Yeah, sharp on that FSU game Uba plus seven and
a half that got hit a bit a little bit
on Florida to Florida State two minus seven minus one day,
nothing real big yet sharp wise on a TCU game
CCU and nothing too sharp there a little bit two way,
but nothing that's really moving the neo that much overall.
Speaker 3: Let me let me see the overall action here.
Speaker 1: There's up. The state was two and a half the
other day when I did a video for that game,
and I see it's three across the board. I think
you all have three minus five. So what does it
take like to move a game from minus two and
a half minus one fifteen up to minus three like
that Arizona State games moved?
Speaker 5: I mean different different factors. You know, if there was
some sharp action. Sure we did take some on we
did take someone on Arizona State minus two and a half,
but it wasn't a big, huge, substantial sharp bed.
Speaker 3: I mean we've taken two way.
Speaker 5: Sharp on that one, but overall public money and then
on air too, you know that that said, we you know,
we don't mind moving the way the industry's moving to.
Speaker 3: We look at Sharp books and I know other books
look at us, So.
Speaker 5: You got to you have to respect all the intel
out there, right, I mean, it's it's just we might
not get hit, but there's other respective books out there,
and we see they're moving that our years per cup.
Why there's some books say they don't look at other books,
and then that's nonsense. Why wouldn't you. I mean, if
that information is out there on the screen, you got
a factor into your moves as well.
Speaker 1: Right, because the goal is to get balanced action. If
you're the only one hanging to two and a half,
even if you had the juice here, you're still gonna
get one sided on that game.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, exactly, you get scalpers get I mean, we
take arms and scalpers and all that stuff too, So
I mean, you don't want to get scalped on a
bad number just because oh you know, we're not moving
because we think it's this. You know, it's sure that
does come into play a little bit. We'll take our sides.
But that being said, you know you have to pay
attention to what else is out there in the industry.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Friday night set up for pretty key numbers
minus seven, minus three, and thirteen and a half of
those three games tomorrow night, So definitely some lines to
keep an eye on for Friday. Real quick. If you
want to throw anything out for Saturday, then I was
going to ask you about some baseball anything else for
Saturday or Sunday, college or pro football catcher up.
Speaker 3: Let's see here, sharp stuff. Let's go. Let's go college first.
Speaker 5: Oregon State plus fourteen, Bowling Green plus eight and a half,
Louisville minus a field goal, QS plus six, Stanford minus
two and a half, Kentucky plus six and a half,
Colorado State minus four and a half. On the NFL,
I'm already mentioned Seattle Vikings minus two, Eagles minus three,
Panthers plus five and a half, Titans plus seven plus
one or three are better.
Speaker 3: Chargers minus six are better. Colts plus four and a half.
Speaker 5: Eagles out right minus won sixty, Packers out right minus
two ninety some more stuff.
Speaker 3: But that's some of the bigger stuff right now.
Speaker 1: Higher byume love it the sharp action for Saturday and Sunday,
I bet online with Dave Mason Dave real quick on
the way out. Thoughts on baseball? How much do things
change in September once football starts? For y'all, I start
waking up more.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that it's a long season.
Speaker 5: I mean, good lord, but my no, the action picks up,
you know, shoot fivefold, sixfold, sevenfold. You know it's just
such a long season. Only the diehards are betting all season.
But now you start getting guys in you bet once
a year, or they might bet early than they you know,
get tired of it.
Speaker 3: Whatever. So the action picks up big time.
Speaker 5: And we were still dealing time lines and the kind
of an endangered species in the sports betting industry these days,
more and more books are getting rid of them, but
we're still dealing dime lines. We have some of the
best MLB juice out there, so we have a very
loyal and faithful MLB uh.
Speaker 3: Player base. So so yeah, we're looking for it.
Speaker 1: I can't wait.
Speaker 3: Go fills.
Speaker 1: That's actually very interesting. I was not expect you to
say that the volume picks up. I think the initial thought,
you know, in the industry is that everyone thing dies
off in September because people play football. But I guess
you're saying you've got some dormant accounts that revitalize. Come on,
I was talking more like.
Speaker 3: Right now, you know, heading into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: But no, you're right.
Speaker 3: I kind of misunderstood the question.
Speaker 5: I guess I guess September yet kind of it goes down,
especially as a lot of these games don't count. But
now you know, as we head into that, the games
that matter get a ton of action. The games that
don't matter get yawn action. But next week with the playoffs,
it'll it'll, it'll go through the roof.
Speaker 1: Speaking of playoffs, I got to ask you, I don't
really follow the w NBA. Do you get any action
of WNBA playoffs for the regular season overall? This year?
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, it's better than it used to be,
and you know, Kaitlyn Clark definitely had a big part
saying in that. I mean, it's one of those sports
where we get decent volume, but it's the it's so
much sharp action, right.
Speaker 3: The good thing with Caitlyn Clark is she brought out
a lot of a lot of casuals.
Speaker 5: I mean, it doesn't compare anything to the sports we're
talking about a couple of minutes ago. But for WNBA,
we see more action than ever, and again a lot
of it had to do with Caitlyn Clark. But you
know she's out, so that hurts a little bit, but
it takes a lot of sharp action. I mean it's
taken more public action than ever, but it's still you know,
I wish Kaitlyn Kark was playing, because when she played,
I mean, action goes up probably twenty five on those games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's the Tiger Woods of women's basketball for a
little while while she was healthy, No question about it. Dave,
great to see you. Actually, I'm sorry I got like
one last question. Andrew Wild one of our loyal viewers.
Any Ryder Cup action he wants to know. Oh, nothing
too sharp?
Speaker 3: I mean yet. I mean there were some sharp bets,
but it really didn't move the needle much on a
three way. We need the team USA right now. They're
minus one forty five room for a tie, just like
soccer always.
Speaker 1: Room for that time.
Speaker 3: Ky would be ty, would be awesome. Europe no good.
Speaker 5: But then you know there's all sorts of other markets too,
but that's that's the market that gets the most most
action by far as that three ways.
Speaker 3: So USA is good, Tie is awesome.
Speaker 1: Best in the business, Dave Mason from bed online. And
you know, I'm really big on supporting books or businesses
to do things right. You mentioned those ten cent timelines.
It's ridiculous and more books don't still do it. You
all do, so I really encourage all the viewers and
listeners to support bet online because they do it the
right way. And Dave, let people now they can follow
you on Twitter as well at Dave Mason Bol.
Speaker 5: Yes, they're at Dave Mason Bol on Twitter. Come on
over and say hello. I've always tweeted to split some
sharp action, etcetera.
Speaker 3: Just some house need.
Speaker 5: Also, we have our everybody knows that the million dollars
Survivor Pools up and running more than week four now,
but we also have a Second Chance Survivor Pools starting
next week. It's one hundred and fifty thousand dollars guaranteed,
no rake, so we'll add on to that, it's only
thirty dollars to enter, can ender numerous times for a discount,
so so give that a shot as well. The one
hundred and fifty thousand dollars Second Chance Survivor Pools starts
week five next week.
Speaker 1: And think about that. There's no rake, so as long
as you're smarter than just one person in that contest,
you have a mathematical edge. That's how you get it.
I like that online dot ag that's Dave Mason. Follow
him on AX. He's a great follow on Twitter at
Dave Mason Bol. Dave, thank you, we'll talk to you
next week.
Speaker 3: All I agree we have a great weekend.
Speaker 1: Take care and that'll do it. Great show. Janny the Greek,
Joe Vernieri, Dave Mason and of course Steve Merril Film
and for Andy Lang will do it again tomorrow. By
the way, the way I we can tell you about
the special offers here again in the moment, but also
want to say hello to some new members. Don't forget
you become a member. I think it's Dan, correct me
if I'm wrong. I think it's like two dollars ninety
nine cents for the month. It's a pretty damn good deal.
That is Correctar True or TV. It's a great handle.
John kat does Ritch Sorry, Dona katan Zarita catan Za,
rita who it's a mouthful two ninety nine a month.
As you see on your screen. There we go. We
got also true or TV or put that next one,
Cody Thomas. Put John's name up there. Dan, let me
see if I can butcher it all right? Everyone else
data also Jesse mcgrawl man, we got a lot of
new members today. Love it not. Tim McGraw three dollars
a month. You can't get nothing for less than three
dollars a month nowadays. It's worthwhile And this is worthwhile
just two ninety nine. Become an insider and go to
WT dot buzz slash Insiders you see on your screen
wt dot Buzz slash Insiders to become an insider and
become a member right here on wager Talk TV. We
love the support. Hey, speaking of the support, I read
the comments. I reply back thumbs up like it's so simple,
don't have the two ninety nine. That's fine, thumbs up
like is free, takes two seconds. And don't forget. We
hit over two hundred and twenty thousand subscribers this week
here on wager Talk TV. I think we picked up
over six thousand of the past month alone. Thank you
for all that you have to subscribe. Double check make
sure you've clicked it, and consider clicking that bell as
well for an instant alert when the videos and live
shows are posted. Don't forget. Also, the Blitz is up
here at one o'clock Eastern live coming up college football.
We got a great show. Ross Benjamin, Ralph Michaels, and
Brian Power end Zone live on Sunday during the NFL games.
Last Call I believe tonight Thursday night and then Monday night.
It's earlier at six Eastern because we got a doubleheader.
Also Saturday and Sunday at eleven am, Johnny's Steam Room
was going to be free. Don't forget this weekend as well.
And finally on the way out, no promo codes need
is to take your time. Go check it out. It's
on my page. Everybody else is at wager Talk. Tons
of special offers. One year all access for just ninety
nine dollars a month, plus a bonus twenty five percent coupon.
I forgot to mention that earlier. You can use that
twenty five percent coupon every day for the next year
to buy additional purchases. If you get my one year,
you're getting baseball, football, and basketball. If you win an
MMA pick a Ryder Cup pick, get a twenty five
percent discount off anything else you buy any other cap
or any other picks. Or if you want a month
for just three days, you get sixty days of access.
By a month and you get in sixty days of
access or about three dollars a day. That's the same
as that one year all access for three dollars. That's
a great offer. Also, the Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars
for a full week in a football through Monday night. Hey,
check it out. Too much to mention here, try to
get it all in. Wager Talk dot com is the
place to be and follow them also on ex social
media Instagram, TikTok at wager Talk. Thanks for our producer,
Dan Alexander. Stay tuned on the Blitz College Football Live
shows coming up at one Eastern. You can watch it
archive twenty four to seven as well, and we'll be
back tomorrow on Friday noon Eastern non in Pacific wager
Talk Today Live right here on wager Talk TV. You
have a great Thursday night Invested book