Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome to episode thirty three of The Eat Check.
Speaker 1: Today is July fifth, and I am your host, Nathan Graham.
Speaker 1: Join me once again. Today is the one and only
Speaker 1: Smith Brigner Smith. How are you, Nathan?
Speaker 2: I just completed an almost three hour drive. I had
Speaker 2: to sit in the car with my girlfriend who's from
Speaker 2: Brazil after they lost to Early Holland and Norway. So
Speaker 2: you can ask me anything. You can ask me anything
Speaker 2: about my night. It probably wasn't as good as most
Speaker 2: listeners I would assume, who are listening to this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of a down day for Brazil in the
Speaker 1: World Cup, isn't it. Have you been following the World
Speaker 1: Cup pretty closely?
Speaker 2: You know? It's interesting I have just by extension, not
Speaker 2: because I'm American. I'm following the USA team, but being
Speaker 2: that she's from Brazil, it's obviously a huge deal over there,
Speaker 2: and so funny enough, just me trying to do the
Speaker 2: good boyfriend thing. I was able to save up some
Speaker 2: money got some tickets to a World Cup game. It
Speaker 2: was Brazil and Haiti. What I didn't realize when I
Speaker 2: bought the tickets, Nathan, is I bought them in the
Speaker 2: Brazil super fan section. In the bleachers nice and so
Speaker 2: the whole game it is drums, horns, people screaming at
Speaker 2: the top of their lungs, my girlfriend being one of them,
Speaker 2: mind you awesome, and flags draping over us to the
Speaker 2: point where it's like I want to see the game.
Speaker 2: I can't see the game, Like, get this flag off
Speaker 2: my head please. So, I mean, one of the sickest,
Speaker 2: most insane, amazing sporting events I've ever been to. And
Speaker 2: that was a low profile game that wasn't even a
Speaker 2: big England versus France or Brazil versus Spain kind of game.
Speaker 2: It was you know, Brazil and Haiti, and it was
Speaker 2: still an insane environment. So, man, if you have a
Speaker 2: chance to over these next few weeks, I think it's
Speaker 2: another two weeks or whatever, man, try your best to
Speaker 2: get to a game if possible.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I really don't don't follow it that close, but
Speaker 1: just seeing just seeing those those fans sections is pretty cool.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, it's sick. I was in Brazil.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think my favorite Norway have you seen have
Speaker 1: you seen them?
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah? Oh yeah. Well what's funny though, is that
Speaker 2: the game today we're recording this the day that Norway
Speaker 2: beat Brazil. If you look at that stadium, it was
Speaker 2: like eighty five percent Brazil. I mean, I think Brazil
Speaker 2: is probably the best traveled fan base in the world.
Speaker 2: I think they're probably the most crazy. The Scots came
Speaker 2: in a pretty close second, though, I gotta.
Speaker 1: Say they did. They had a pretty nice showing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So you know, I would say Brazil's fans
Speaker 2: kind of travel like the Yankees fans, right, Like, they
Speaker 2: have the most FIFA World Cups of any nation. So
Speaker 2: they're they're like.
Speaker 1: The Yankees, and they're kind of.
Speaker 2: Like the Dodgers. Yeah, yeah, like they they they are
Speaker 2: going to be people calling for Carlo Ancelotti's head, There's
Speaker 2: no doubt about it. You know, neymar I love you, brother,
Speaker 2: But he looks he looks done. So they're an old
Speaker 2: team in transition, almost like the New York ky Kees.
Speaker 1: Funny, that's that's a pretty good trans transition. That's a
Speaker 1: that's a great transition.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Nice. All right, so let's let's jump into talk some baseball.
Speaker 1: If you if you knew the podcast first, well, welcome.
Speaker 1: But we're to take a look at the top performer,
Speaker 1: top performing pitcher and hitter from each minor league level.
Speaker 1: Our hitter from Triple A is someone that we've discussed
Speaker 1: before on the podcast and not in a good light,
Speaker 1: But this time we're going to look at in a
Speaker 1: positive light, and that's Rocky's outfielder, Charlie Condon Smith. The
Speaker 1: last ten days, he's been probably the hottest hitter in
Speaker 1: all of minor league baseball, hitting five twenty six six
Speaker 1: home runs. And we all know Charlie Condon number three
Speaker 1: overall selection in twenty twenty four after historic grun at Georgia,
Speaker 1: selected ahead of Nick Kurtz. I think at the time
Speaker 1: we had the debate whether would we take Condon, Kurtz
Speaker 1: or Caglione. But prior to this year, he's never slugged
Speaker 1: above four p fifty and he's dealt with hand and
Speaker 1: wrist injuries. But it seems like it's turning around this year.
Speaker 1: But my question to you is is Condon's twenty twenty
Speaker 1: sixth season is it real or just a byproduct and
Speaker 1: playing in the PCL and being a little bit healthy
Speaker 1: this year, do you still have concerns about Condon?
Speaker 2: Nathan, It's real, Yeah, it's real. He is one of
Speaker 2: those guys where it's important to just measure how significant
Speaker 2: an injury it was at the time you're dealing with
Speaker 2: the hand or the wrist, I should have factor that
Speaker 2: in more. And it's also difficult to assess once he
Speaker 2: came back from injury how much it was affecting him
Speaker 2: afterwards and was he really one hundred percent because the
Speaker 2: guy that I'm seeing now is not anything like the
Speaker 2: guy I saw. What was it last year when we
Speaker 2: covered him towards the beginning of the year, I think, so, yeah,
Speaker 2: So he's like, he's just got better batspeed. It just
Speaker 2: it's it looks quicker, it looks more explosive, and and
Speaker 2: he's making a lot of contact. And the issue was
Speaker 2: that he was swinging and missing and swinging and missing
Speaker 2: on breaking stuff because he was cheating on fastballs that
Speaker 2: normally he could catch up on. It's something he wasn't
Speaker 2: catching up on because he didn't have batspeed. Now that
Speaker 2: the bat speed's back, he's showing an ability to hit
Speaker 2: all different pitch types. If you look at his zone
Speaker 2: contact rate over a rolling period throughout the season, it's
Speaker 2: gotten progressively better, to the point where over the last
Speaker 2: sixty swings he's taken, he's at his own contact rate
Speaker 2: of anywhere between eighty one to eighty eight percent, which
Speaker 2: is really really good. So the factor that with still
Speaker 2: plus batterball data, exit velocities ninety eighth max barrel, they're
Speaker 2: all good. They're not great. I will say that it's
Speaker 2: not great. It's good, but it's not great. And should
Speaker 2: he be in the major leagues one thousand percent? Right?
Speaker 2: You know, he kind of reminds me of funny enough.
Speaker 2: And it's not just because he was a highly touted pick,
Speaker 2: but it's Spencer Torkulsen Actually is I think a fair
Speaker 2: comp here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can see that. I can see that, so yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think it is more than just being
Speaker 1: in the PCO. I think he's finally healthy and we
Speaker 1: really didn't take into count just how much that hand
Speaker 1: and wrist injury took its toll. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: I agree. It definitely took a toll, and I think
Speaker 2: that's on us to put that into more context than
Speaker 2: perhaps give a little bit more grace. I think the
Speaker 2: fact that he was a Rockies prospect, though, which is
Speaker 2: like we were so ready to dunk on him for
Speaker 2: that reason alone. Yeah, and you know, the Rockies are
Speaker 2: still the Rockies in some ways, but it does look
Speaker 2: like they are turning the corner in a lot of
Speaker 2: key areas developmentally. Under Paul de Badesta, the pitching has
Speaker 2: gotten at least a little bit more advanced, like they
Speaker 2: got something out of Antonio Sinctela and some guys in
Speaker 2: the major leagues. Some of their pitching prospects are starting
Speaker 2: to show signs of life, and Condon is leading the
Speaker 2: hitters in that respect.
Speaker 1: I agree, we're gonna stay in the National League West
Speaker 1: here and with our pitcher, and that's Blade Tidwell. So
Speaker 1: Tidwell Triple A Sacramento. He debuted with the Mets, was
Speaker 1: it last year? They struggled, and then was traded to
Speaker 1: the Giants in exchange for Tyler Rodgers last year, and
Speaker 1: he's been up a little bit this year. Eight relief
Speaker 1: appearances with San Francisco, and he's looked pretty good. I
Speaker 1: don't know if there's a bigger disappointment in baseball than
Speaker 1: the Giants. It's kind of been a train wreck this year.
Speaker 1: M and you would have to think that they are
Speaker 1: going to be sellers at the deadline, you would think,
Speaker 1: for sure. Yeah, And so they've been building up innings
Speaker 1: for Tidwell and Triaa. Do you think he's in San
Speaker 1: Francisco's rotation opening day next year or by the end
Speaker 1: of this year.
Speaker 2: I think by the end of this year, I think
Speaker 2: it's possible. I mean, Tyler Maylee should not be on
Speaker 2: this team. Robbie Ray should not be on this team
Speaker 2: come the trade deadline. Adrian Houser should not be on
Speaker 2: this team. The only guys that should be in the
Speaker 2: rotation guaranteed going it's the next year are Logan Webin
Speaker 2: Landen Groupe. That's it, right. Trevor McDonald hasn't really proved anything.
Speaker 2: Tyler Maylee is someone that you absolutely should be trading.
Speaker 2: What exactly you get for him given that he he
Speaker 2: has almost a six era or it mays to be seen,
Speaker 2: but maybe there's a team that thinks that they can
Speaker 2: fix his fastball to become a plus offering. Again, not
Speaker 2: other on possibility, but even if he's not a starter,
Speaker 2: like Eric Miller, absolutely should be traded, no question about it.
Speaker 2: Caleb Killian, you have lightning in a bottle. You gotta
Speaker 2: trade the brother, right, So he's going to be in
Speaker 2: some sort of capacity. As for Tidwell. Now, as for Tidwell,
Speaker 2: the player the pitcher. He's always kind of had this
Speaker 2: power arsenal with really good velocity. It used to be premium,
Speaker 2: it's just good now, like he's sitting in the mid
Speaker 2: nineties with the fastball with not the greatest movement profile.
Speaker 2: It's not quite a dead zone, but it's like an
Speaker 2: average fastball. What really gets him going is the sweeper
Speaker 2: and slider, which are two distinct pitches. It's about five
Speaker 2: miles of velocity separation miles power velocity separation, and the
Speaker 2: sweeper gets actually really nice bite, so he does have
Speaker 2: a feel to spin the ball. So you pair like
Speaker 2: an average fastball with a sinker and cutter. He's got
Speaker 2: that trifecta that he can use effectively. He does have
Speaker 2: a sweeper and slider that get really good spin rates,
Speaker 2: really good with rates as well. I think one developmental
Speaker 2: area I'd like to see him work on is just
Speaker 2: incorporating the cutter a little bit more because as this
Speaker 2: guy who gets on the side of the ball right
Speaker 2: he's a supernat you want to try to find that
Speaker 2: pitch for him that is that perfect hybrid between velocity
Speaker 2: and bite, and his cutter has a rising cutter characteristic.
Speaker 2: What do you mean by that, instead of having negative
Speaker 2: induced vertical break like I would say most cutters have
Speaker 2: maybe one inch of induced vertical break, this has almost ten.
Speaker 2: So he's got ten with almost slighter like horizontal movement
Speaker 2: on a pitch that goes ninety miles an hour. He's
Speaker 2: getting a ton of swing and miss on it. And
Speaker 2: it's a really nice pitch to use against lefties when
Speaker 2: you're trying to jam them high and inside, when you're
Speaker 2: throwing it as hard as he can. So he's got
Speaker 2: an interesting profile from that perspective. The fastball trifecta that
Speaker 2: we like, the ability to really spin the ball. It's
Speaker 2: always gonna come down to can he command his arsenal enough,
Speaker 2: And that's always been the issue with Blade did Will.
Speaker 2: It's always been the reason his stuff is played down
Speaker 2: more than what you would suggest for a guy with
Speaker 2: this kind of stuff. I would say it's plus stuff collectively.
Speaker 2: But the command is we're in the forty to forty
Speaker 2: five rings right now, right right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, It'll be interesting to see how they use him
Speaker 1: at the end of the year if they do make
Speaker 1: those deals.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they absolutely should.
Speaker 1: They should, Yeah, they should.
Speaker 2: I do want to say, though you said they are
Speaker 2: the most disappointing team. I think the Mets and Red
Speaker 2: Sox would have something to say about that, though.
Speaker 1: Yeah that's true, that's true.
Speaker 2: But they're not barblhind No, No they're not, they're not.
Speaker 1: Let's move down to double A and and our hitter
Speaker 1: is Alfonsin Rosario, outfielder for the Cleveland Guardians. He was
Speaker 1: a Cubs draftee sixth rounder in the twenty twenty three draft.
Speaker 1: He's a prep outfielder, and the story on Vasari was
Speaker 1: always projectable. There's a lot of projection in the frame.
Speaker 1: But he was dealt to Cleveland in twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: for Eli Morgan, who, by the way, pitched just seven
Speaker 1: innings for the Cubs last year. Huge power potential and
Speaker 1: we're we're finally starting to see it this year. He's
Speaker 1: in double A akron and four to twenty one over
Speaker 1: the last ten games, three home runs, but he's got
Speaker 1: fifteen home runs, ten sole and bases on the season.
Speaker 1: We always a theme for us on the heat check
Speaker 1: has always been double a's kind of been. You see
Speaker 1: a lot of players struggle there and it's a benchmark
Speaker 1: level for talent. But we're seeing Rosario thrive there. Are
Speaker 1: you ready to consider Rosario a top prospect for the
Speaker 1: Guardians or is there anything in the profile you'd like
Speaker 1: that might hold him back.
Speaker 2: Well, he's swing some misses too much. Yeah, so I'm
Speaker 2: I'm definitely not in as much I think that you
Speaker 2: might be, Nathan.
Speaker 1: I'm not ready. I'm not ready just yet, but I was. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the swing and miss is a concern.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's one concern. So I'm doing a simple
Speaker 2: data pull and I'm trying to find guys with greater
Speaker 2: than two hundred and fifty played appearances at any given level,
Speaker 2: And I'm basically trying to figure out, of the guy's
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty plate appearances, how many guys have
Speaker 2: a swinging strike rate of greater than twenty percent. I'm
Speaker 2: just gonna say it's a very small list that Rosario
Speaker 2: finds himself on there. Yeah. So he is swinging missing
Speaker 2: way too much. And if you look at it, it's
Speaker 2: a very long swing. There's a lot of action pre
Speaker 2: load going on here. Can some of this be cleaned up? Yes?
Speaker 2: And can you know the fact that he's got good
Speaker 2: really I would say plus strength. He's a big guy. Yeah,
Speaker 2: almost what two hundred and forty pounds. If I had
Speaker 2: to guess, he's a big dude. He's kind of one
Speaker 2: of those thumpers. Like imagine in frammill Reyes if he
Speaker 2: was like two or three inches shorter. That's kind of
Speaker 2: the way that he's projecting here. That's a fun player.
Speaker 2: But then again, frammil Reyes had like seventy grade power,
Speaker 2: so you were able to live with the strikeouts and
Speaker 2: the low walk rates and the high chase so long
Speaker 2: as he hit you twenty five or thirty bombs. That's
Speaker 2: basically the way Rosario is gonna have to contribute as
Speaker 2: a corner outfielder without any other significant tool to his name.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think you're right. I think that's but
Speaker 1: I think it is maybe promising that he is doing
Speaker 1: a double A. But we'll see. I think the swing
Speaker 1: miss might rear rear their head later on.
Speaker 2: Possibly possibly. Yeah, it's it's tough to say, but I
Speaker 2: am still gonna firmly keep him in the forty to
Speaker 2: forty five ofp range.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty good idea. Now for the picture in
Speaker 1: double A, our picture is going to be Christiana, And
Speaker 1: it was I know I was putting the doc together,
Speaker 1: and I was so looking back through the past articles
Speaker 1: of BP and stuff, and I saw there was there
Speaker 1: was an article earlier this year about potential breakouts of
Speaker 1: twenty six and lo and behold who wrote it?
Speaker 2: Bay?
Speaker 1: Was you? So tell me what made you at that time?
Speaker 1: What made you think that he was going to have
Speaker 1: this breakout that he's having right this year at Tulsa.
Speaker 2: So he was flagged to me by by someone like, hey,
Speaker 2: you usually check this guy out. And as public side scouts,
Speaker 2: we always have to be really careful, right taking that right, Like,
Speaker 2: I used to just run with what somebody would say,
Speaker 2: and I got in a lot of trouble, not like
Speaker 2: actual trouble, but just I remember I got gassed up
Speaker 2: on Jason Aminga's one time, and right, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: So you can find a scout to tell you anything
Speaker 1: you want to hear about someone I think.
Speaker 2: Correct, correct. And so this required a lot of background work.
Speaker 2: Now the person I got it from someone that I
Speaker 2: trust sure more than just like the average scout. Right,
Speaker 2: So I was willing to look into it. And as
Speaker 2: I looked in the data and I saw the tape,
Speaker 2: I was like, this is a top ten pitching prospect
Speaker 2: because I know that I compare some guy's fastballs to
Speaker 2: Brian Wu. But if there was a guy with the
Speaker 2: Brian Wo traits on a fastball, yeah, it's Christian Zazaweta
Speaker 2: because the way that he has such a low release point,
Speaker 2: the way his release like how far down he gets
Speaker 2: on the mound. He gets almost seven feet of extension,
Speaker 2: low release point, way above average and does vertical break
Speaker 2: given that release height, and then the approach angle is
Speaker 2: like virtually and hittable, like it's it's not dropping at all.
Speaker 2: Like the rising action on this fastball is insane. And
Speaker 2: and you know he was throwing in cold weather for
Speaker 2: the first time in his career in the Great Lakes.
Speaker 2: I think it is high a and that was his
Speaker 2: first time in cold weather like ever. And now that
Speaker 2: the weather's gotten warm, the velocity is ticked up until
Speaker 2: like the ninety five to ninety seven range top of
Speaker 2: you now sometimes at ninety eight like it's sick, and
Speaker 2: he throws it for strikes too, like all of this
Speaker 2: alongside the ability to command it in any quadron of
Speaker 2: the zone. So it is Yeah, I'm gonna call eighty
Speaker 2: grade fastball. It's eighty grade fastball, and he's getting a
Speaker 2: complete arsenal around it. He's got a slider, he's got
Speaker 2: a cutter as well. He's got this change that is
Speaker 2: getting a ton of swing and miss right now in
Speaker 2: the zone. So like the amount of deception that he's
Speaker 2: able to get with really clean arm action, really great
Speaker 2: arm speed, nice and lanky like, not stiff, very loose.
Speaker 2: This is This is like the quintessential breakout that pops
Speaker 2: up in lower high eight every year. And I have
Speaker 2: absolutely no doubt in my mind he is a top
Speaker 2: ten pitching prospect. He might actually be closer to a
Speaker 2: top five pitching prospect than a top ten at this point.
Speaker 1: Woh, okay, in all of baseball or just the Dodgers.
Speaker 2: In all he oh, he's the number one pitching prospect
Speaker 2: for the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, he's gonna be.
Speaker 2: We're gonna have conversations about him being anywhere between the
Speaker 2: top ten and top five pitching prospect by the end
Speaker 2: of the year. I might argue top five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I was looking at the stats. You did
Speaker 1: make a good point, Great Lakes. He's considerably better at
Speaker 1: Tulsa than he was in Great Lakes in hi A
Speaker 1: so yeah, I think the cold weather in Midland, Michigan
Speaker 1: kind of played a role there.
Speaker 2: So for sure. I mean he was getting backuped to
Speaker 2: absolute death there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so awesome. So he's definitely a picture to take
Speaker 1: keep an eye on going.
Speaker 2: Forward one thousand. Get him while you can before he
Speaker 2: gets on everyone's big prospect lists in your dynasty league.
Speaker 1: That's right, let's move down to hi A. So Hya,
Speaker 1: we're gonna look at our hitter is Sammy Steffura, shortstop
Speaker 1: for the Pittsburgh Pirates. So he was originally second round
Speaker 1: selection by the Reds in twenty twenty three, and I
Speaker 1: liked him for the Reds, but he was dealt last
Speaker 1: season at the deadline for Cabrian Hayes. Post draft, the
Speaker 1: numbers kind of dipped a little bit, but he's rebounded
Speaker 1: nicely this year in HYA. He's twenty one years old,
Speaker 1: so it's age appropriate. But on the season he's hitting
Speaker 1: a slashing two sixty nine, three seventy six, four ninety four,
Speaker 1: so he's hitting for average, a little bit of power,
Speaker 1: he's got some speed. He's a good athlete. Is there
Speaker 1: enough in that profile there to make you think he's
Speaker 1: part of the Pirates' next cores or is he just
Speaker 1: a role player to you?
Speaker 2: I think he's a role player. Yeah, there's definitely some
Speaker 2: utility to this profile because there's some defensive versatility here
Speaker 2: that you know. I know he's been primarily a shortstop.
Speaker 2: He's played a little bit and base as well. I'd
Speaker 2: like to see him in the outfield as well. And
Speaker 2: the Pirates, being a small market team, have every incentive
Speaker 2: to try to maximize every roster spot, every player. Like
Speaker 2: It's not because he's not a good defensive shortstop. He is.
Speaker 2: I think he can stick there.
Speaker 1: But somebody else there right now, don't they?
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, they got a guy named Connor Griffin there,
Speaker 2: so he ain't going anywhere. In fact, he's actually a
Speaker 2: year older than Connor Griffin. Is just insane to think about,
Speaker 2: or maybe even two. Is he two one two?
Speaker 1: He's just one?
Speaker 2: Whatever point stands. I think there is a possibility of
Speaker 2: him being a really nice role player that can play anywhere,
Speaker 2: sort of in the way of like like like Marvel Gonzalez.
Speaker 2: The only thing is that Marlon Gonzalez was I believe
Speaker 2: he was a switch hitter. But marvelon Gonzalez swung and
Speaker 2: miss a fair bit but had a little bit of power. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And it's kind of the same for Sephurra, right, Like
Speaker 2: he swings and misses a lot, but he's got a
Speaker 2: little bit of power. He will take a walk, and
Speaker 2: he's fast. I think he can play in a multitude
Speaker 2: of positions and be that Marlon Gonzalez kind of guy
Speaker 2: on a team. So I'm not there yet as an
Speaker 2: everyday regular projection. I think he's a pretty safe forty
Speaker 2: five at the very least.
Speaker 1: Though, Yeah, I think you're right. I think his an
Speaker 1: athleticism gets him there. So let's look at an arm
Speaker 1: for hya, and that's David Hagemann for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: Another guy that was moved last year at the deadline,
Speaker 1: this time to the Diamondbacks for Merrill Kelly. But he
Speaker 1: was a bullpen arm West Virginia and you went internal
Speaker 1: brace surgery in May of twenty twenty four, but the
Speaker 1: Rangers still saw enough to draft him in the fourth round.
Speaker 1: You talked about Sazutaka and the elite extension, but hageman
Speaker 1: really gets an elite extension too with the fastball. But
Speaker 1: we've seen the walk rate kind of back up a
Speaker 1: little bit this year. We don't talk about Diamondbacks pitchers
Speaker 1: all that often, but where do you think Hageman ranks
Speaker 1: in terms of Diamondbacks prospects? Is he one on one candidate?
Speaker 2: Not with that walk rate? Now? Yeah, yeah, no, If
Speaker 2: that walk rate was closer to ten percent, I think
Speaker 2: we have a discussion. But yeah, Like he's got a
Speaker 2: good fastball, he's got a good slider, he's got a
Speaker 2: good change up. He just needs to throw it over
Speaker 2: the plate more and needs to eat. I almost wonder
Speaker 2: if it's like a confidence issue, like, dude, just literally
Speaker 2: just aim for the middle, like all the guys that
Speaker 2: you hear having subpart command that end up becoming pretty
Speaker 2: good starters, right, like the tyler Glass nows right, Like
Speaker 2: at some point it's just go be a bro, throw
Speaker 2: gas and and good things happen. Exactly just trust her stuff.
Speaker 2: I think that's really that Like it is that simple,
Speaker 2: like just throw it over the plate and good things
Speaker 2: will happen. And will you make a mistake from time
Speaker 2: to time like Tyler Glass. Now sure I'm not claiming
Speaker 2: he's tyler Glass now to be clear, but there's a
Speaker 2: there's a complete arsenal here and I would just love
Speaker 2: to see that walk rate come down a little bit.
Speaker 2: He's fine. I think he's somewhere in the top one fifty.
Speaker 2: And as we always say, is there really a gap
Speaker 2: between one oh one and one fifty? Not really. It's
Speaker 2: more just a matter of personal preference than anything. But
Speaker 2: there's definitely some intriguing stuff to work with here, no
Speaker 2: doubt about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's one too. I think that maybe this is
Speaker 1: year two, coming back from that injury. Maybe we see
Speaker 1: next year the command takes another step forward for sure.
Speaker 2: For sure, I will say it's it's a pretty aggressive delivery.
Speaker 2: He goes downhill a fair bit, but there's a little
Speaker 2: bit of a hitch. So mechanically speaking, I don't think
Speaker 2: it's a given. Even if you know you get another year,
Speaker 2: it's possible. Like I've I've really begun to devalue mechanics
Speaker 2: when it comes to assessing command, I think it's kind
Speaker 2: of a loser's game, right, Honestly, I think it's better
Speaker 2: to assess velocity, and that's obviously not an issue with him.
Speaker 2: But yeah, let's give it another year. I'm definitely intrigued.
Speaker 2: He gets a lot of swing and miss on just
Speaker 2: about everything. This is definitely got to keep an eye on.
Speaker 2: I'm not there yet as a one oh one guy, though, right.
Speaker 1: I think he's one that maybe next year at this
Speaker 1: time maybe he will be.
Speaker 2: Then it's yeah, it's it's definitely possible. Okay, I'll say
Speaker 2: it as much.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's move on down to low A.
Speaker 1: And our lower hitter is an interesting one. It's Alex
Speaker 1: Ode shortstop for the Atlanta Braves. Lodise low Dice, low Dice.
Speaker 1: Let's just go with low d low Ds Lowds. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right. So low Des was a two year start
Speaker 1: at Florida State Golden Spikes finalists last year before the
Speaker 1: Braves select him in the second round. He got one
Speaker 1: hundred at bats post draft and high A. But we're
Speaker 1: talking about him this year in low A. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: not a good sign. How concerned are you that lodis
Speaker 1: a college bat from a big pro is still in
Speaker 1: low A.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm not putting much into this performance. I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna lie. Yeah. I wonder if it's an organization I
Speaker 2: don't know this, to be clear. I wonder if it's
Speaker 2: just an organizational shift in how aggressive they are in
Speaker 2: promoting guys right, But if you just go to the
Speaker 2: chalk developmental timeline in Major League Baseball, he's still well
Speaker 2: behind here. Yeah, he's twenty two years old from the
Speaker 2: se excuse me, acc in low A like what we do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, We've always kind of talked about how teams will
Speaker 1: tell you what they really think of a player, and
Speaker 1: it just makes me wonder here.
Speaker 2: It Yeah, and I'm sure there's a I'm sure there's
Speaker 2: a good explanation here. Like the Braves are not idiots,
Speaker 2: they know what they're doing. They're very smart. They're one
Speaker 2: of the best player developmental organizations in baseball. You see
Speaker 2: three or four guys every year break out like they
Speaker 2: are this year. Yeah, I just it's just a little
Speaker 2: confounding to me that he was good last year. Granted
Speaker 2: he's swung in this a ton in high ay, but
Speaker 2: even so, like he spent half a year in Low
Speaker 2: A this year, Like, I don't think you need to
Speaker 2: spend half a year in low A. Another thing I
Speaker 2: will say here is it is a very hitter friendly
Speaker 2: league right now when his slash line is good but
Speaker 2: it's not dominant.
Speaker 1: No, So yeah, it's not what you want to it's
Speaker 1: not what you want to see in low A from
Speaker 1: a player that was at Florida State.
Speaker 2: No, and he's hit seventeen homers. Yeah, so what that
Speaker 2: tells me is that he's he is hitting a lot
Speaker 2: of fly balls, and so his batting average on balls
Speaker 2: and play. I haven't even looked at it. I probably
Speaker 2: should have. I'm sure it's quite low. I'm sure it's
Speaker 2: quite low. Like if it's barely scraping three hundred, that
Speaker 2: would not surprise me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's kind of concerning there, but I think
Speaker 1: the glove is still good. There's still some positives in
Speaker 1: the Oh.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, And I should have said that. I apologize.
Speaker 2: He is a clear defensive shortstop, so, like there is
Speaker 2: a lot of excitement just for that alone. Like if
Speaker 2: he's able to have fifty five grade power, even if
Speaker 2: he has a forty grade hit tool. If he has
Speaker 2: a forty grade hit tool of fifty five power and
Speaker 2: can play a fifty five or sixty grade shortstop, that's
Speaker 2: a heck of a prospect, right that is?
Speaker 1: That is?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So there's definitely some exciting stuff here. It's just
Speaker 2: a really strange like, why is he's still in low A.
Speaker 2: I don't really have an answer for you. I know
Speaker 2: they've a lot of shortstop prospects, and I'm sure maybe
Speaker 2: that's part of it. They've got a lot of infield
Speaker 2: prospects all of a sudden, which was not the case recently.
Speaker 2: Like I know John Hill, John Gill Hill Gil John
Speaker 2: Gill is in hig A right now and he is
Speaker 2: absolutely tearing it up there. It's probably just a matter
Speaker 2: of time before he goes up to Double A. But
Speaker 2: he's a twenty year old tearing it up in Hi A.
Speaker 2: So I wonder if it's just that they want to
Speaker 2: get both of them playing time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe it is a case of them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like that's the thought that comes to mind. But
Speaker 2: I also think that's telling that they'd rather go with
Speaker 2: a twenty year old in High A than the twenty
Speaker 2: two year old who has major college conference experience.
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. All right, now we're gonna move
Speaker 1: down to their picture. And this is someone I've been
Speaker 1: hearing about from you for a couple of years, and
Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna kind of introduced the player and
Speaker 1: just let you go here. So Henry Henry Lulane Loway Tampa,
Speaker 1: his last fourteen innings of work nowhere and runs twenty
Speaker 1: three strikeouts and zero walks. So Smith have at it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Lalani was probably the best pitching prospect I'd
Speaker 2: ever seen in the Yankees complex. He was sick and
Speaker 2: then he hurt his shoulder at the beginning of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four season. I first I went to the
Speaker 2: spring breakout game in twenty twenty four, and I was
Speaker 2: so ready for the ninety five to ninety seven from
Speaker 2: this twenty year old who's six foot seven from the Bronx, Like,
Speaker 2: inject that into my veins, right, And when he was
Speaker 2: throwing ninety ninety one ninety two, it was like something's
Speaker 2: not right here lo and behold, he ends up having
Speaker 2: shoulder surgery. He's out for the year, barely pitches last year.
Speaker 2: He's also ninety one ninety two. Come to twenty twenty
Speaker 2: six and he's up to ninety four. He's getting swing
Speaker 2: and miss on the four scene. But what's really standing
Speaker 2: out is his slider and change up. They're getting both
Speaker 2: above forty five percent with rates. He's got a little
Speaker 2: bit of deception. He's got a sort of like a
Speaker 2: high three quarters delivery at six foot seven, so like
Speaker 2: that release point, you would think is really high. He
Speaker 2: just gets down on the mound so far, but the
Speaker 2: crazy parties, he doesn't have like the highest amount of
Speaker 2: extension because he's got the high release point, right. But
Speaker 2: he's got a high release point and his legs are
Speaker 2: so spread apart at the release that he's got this
Speaker 2: combination of like average release height, slightly above average release height,
Speaker 2: and slightly above average extension. There's not many pictures with
Speaker 2: that combination. It's usually you give up the arm angle
Speaker 2: to get better extension, right, Yeah, that's where your arm angle. Right.
Speaker 2: He's kind of one of those anomalies where because he's
Speaker 2: so freaking big, he can do both of those things,
Speaker 2: and he does them. So the ninety four looks like
Speaker 2: ninety five ninety six, But then it's got the movement
Speaker 2: profile of a guy with a high three quarter slot,
Speaker 2: so it makes for more deception than anything. The stuff
Speaker 2: models don't love him, and I understand why. I don't
Speaker 2: think stuff models have really done a good job of
Speaker 2: a county for this relationship between induced vertical break and
Speaker 2: extension or excuse me, release height. I should say extension,
Speaker 2: because if they did, then I think Lailani would be
Speaker 2: closer towards the top of stuff models. He's definitely back
Speaker 2: on the radar, I will say that. And he's gotten
Speaker 2: better as the season's gone on. He's getting more swing
Speaker 2: and miss as the season has progressed, the point where
Speaker 2: I think, over his last however many pitches, he's getting
Speaker 2: zone contact rates within you know, sub seventy percent. Like
Speaker 2: he's absolutely ready to go to Hya. It's really good
Speaker 2: to see him healthy again because for a while it
Speaker 2: was looking like it was it was jover for Lalane.
Speaker 2: But he's he's definitely back on the radar. I'm happy
Speaker 2: to say that. I just want to see him throw
Speaker 2: a few more strikes. He's getting a lot of chase
Speaker 2: out of the zone right now, which is inflating the
Speaker 2: strikeout rate and lowering the walk rate. But you know,
Speaker 2: as we know, that's going to go down if he
Speaker 2: doesn't remedy that. So let's see him get in the
Speaker 2: zone a little bit more. But I'm back to being
Speaker 2: from its jover to okay, there were you know, this
Speaker 2: is a top maybe a top ten pitching prospect in
Speaker 2: the system, or maybe top ten prospect I should say
Speaker 2: in the system this offseason, right.
Speaker 1: Good, Yeah, it's always good to see guys come back
Speaker 1: from entries and kind of return to their former status.
Speaker 2: It's not quite there yet though, Like he was still
Speaker 2: mid nineties two years ago, twenty year old, all right,
Speaker 2: so there's still a little bit left to give. If
Speaker 2: he's suddenly ninety five to ninety seven. Oh, he catapults
Speaker 2: way up lists at that point, like way way up.
Speaker 2: And then if the command ever comes back to what
Speaker 2: it was, then we go back to my initial thesis
Speaker 2: of the top ten pitching prospect in the sport. Right. Awesome, Well,
Speaker 2: that's that's still a ways away. Right.
Speaker 1: We do have a little bit of bonus content because
Speaker 1: we've got Complex league action going on.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, the sickos out there, Oh yes, yeah.
Speaker 1: If you've stuck around for this, you're we're digging in
Speaker 1: deep here. So we're going to Arizona first, and our
Speaker 1: hitter is Fernando Cruz, Cub shortstop, hitting three forty five
Speaker 1: with four home runs, one walk in twelve strikeouts in
Speaker 1: his last ten games. So Cruse is actually the cousin
Speaker 1: of former Cubs All Star Starlin Castro, and he was
Speaker 1: there big ticket signing in twenty twenty four, but like
Speaker 1: a week or two after he signed he suffered a
Speaker 1: major shoulder injury, and so that took him out of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and it delayed twenty twenty five, and
Speaker 1: he was bad in twenty twenty five. The numbers were terrible.
Speaker 1: M But he's healthy again. There's tons of upside in
Speaker 1: the profile plus bat speed, plus plus athleticism. But how
Speaker 1: much does that thirty five percent k rate that he's
Speaker 1: running right now in Arizona? How much does that worry
Speaker 1: you as for a player that's that young. Woo said,
Speaker 1: a big red flag, red sirens.
Speaker 2: Yep, that's get out of the way, the sirens, the
Speaker 2: ambulances is speeding through the highway here.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, So like clubs community, as rational as it is,
Speaker 2: is going to call him the next Hobby Bias, right
Speaker 2: because he's got plus power plus defense, can run, you know,
Speaker 2: you know, Latin American, you know, kind of has some swagger, right,
Speaker 2: Like that's that's gonna be the inevitable comp and it like,
Speaker 2: on the surface, it's not the worst in the world.
Speaker 2: But the difference is that Hobby Baiaz struck out because
Speaker 2: he's swung and missed out of the zone way too much.
Speaker 2: But he actually made enough contact in the zone to
Speaker 2: make it work for eight or nine years, right, and
Speaker 2: then he went to Troy and all fell apart. But
Speaker 2: he was good for eight or nine years because he
Speaker 2: still was able to make enough contact in the zone
Speaker 2: to get away with it. Cruz is not at that
Speaker 2: point and thus should not be in that conversation with
Speaker 2: the hobby bayas he has always swung and missed. Going
Speaker 2: back to the Dominican days, he was swinging and missing
Speaker 2: at almost forty percent of pitches, which I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 2: That's really hard to do in the DSL. That's kind
Speaker 2: of impressive, honestly, but there's definitely some power here. But
Speaker 2: similar to Lodiz, he really has been having an an
Speaker 2: interrational amount of his hits or fly balls go over
Speaker 2: the wall, and the battball data is okay, it's good
Speaker 2: for his age, but it's not like a knocker socks off.
Speaker 2: This is a top prospect in the sport. This is
Speaker 2: the kind of profile that can get red hot or
Speaker 2: ice cold. So next, let's actually put a pin in
Speaker 2: this next podcast. Let's come back and see what Fernando
Speaker 2: Cruise is up to in this last ten games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna make a note of that.
Speaker 2: Let's do it. Good note on the on the Starling
Speaker 2: Castro relationship. I did not know that though.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So let's finish up the podcast here with
Speaker 1: our picture and we're gonna talk at Texas Rangers left
Speaker 1: hander Ben Abelt. I hope I'm pronouncing that right. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So he was one of the top relievers in college
Speaker 1: baseball during his time at TCU, and they were going
Speaker 1: to actually transition him to a starter's role before towards
Speaker 1: UCL in twenty twenty five. Rangers still selected him in
Speaker 1: the fifth round and they're moving him along slowly. He's
Speaker 1: been starting in the complex. So my question to you
Speaker 1: here is he's a belt seems like he could be
Speaker 1: a quick mover. Should the Rangers move him back to
Speaker 1: the bullpen, how patient do you think they'll be with him?
Speaker 2: Huh, it's a good question. Yeah, I don't know. I
Speaker 2: will say the numbers are not overly impressive for complex.
Speaker 2: I get that he's coming back from major injuries, so yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, keep that in mind. But yeah, I don't
Speaker 2: think like they definitely are in the need for for
Speaker 2: lefty relievers intact, like they need all the pictures they
Speaker 2: can get right now in Texas. But you know, if
Speaker 2: you look at the delivery, it's kind of a crossbody,
Speaker 2: crossbody low three course delivery. There's actually a video back
Speaker 2: from like twenty twenty four, I'll send it to you
Speaker 2: offline here of one of his bullpens, and if you
Speaker 2: see where he lands, he lands like at least a
Speaker 2: foot and a half off the center of the rubber
Speaker 2: and he's you know, he's starting on the third bait
Speaker 2: on the first base side of the rubber. He lands
Speaker 2: his front foot like a foot and a half off
Speaker 2: of that side of the picture's mounds. So it's definitely
Speaker 2: a crossbody. It definitely screams reliever. Very seldom can a
Speaker 2: picture do this like Chris Sales like the only one
Speaker 2: I've ever seen do that with success. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think he is absolutely a reliever. I wonder if this
Speaker 2: is just yes, maybe they are trying him out as
Speaker 2: a starter, but like they know that they want to
Speaker 2: get two or three innings from him just to see
Speaker 2: how he looks, and then they're getting him out. Maybe
Speaker 2: that's not necessarily indicative of him being a starter as
Speaker 2: much as it is just they want to get him
Speaker 2: in and he's had nine game. Yeah, He's had nine
Speaker 2: appearances for the Complex League. Like, at what point do
Speaker 2: you try to get him to Low A or High A.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Rangers are known for being pretty slow
Speaker 2: with their development timelines, Like AJ Russell just got promoted
Speaker 2: to High A. That should have happened like two months ago, right,
Speaker 2: So Ben abelt like, yeah, they might actually be trying
Speaker 2: him as a starter. I just I don't see that happening.
Speaker 2: I think he's a leader, he could be a good one,
Speaker 2: but yeah, I think he's a I think he's a reliever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is just kind of easing him
Speaker 1: back in. I think next year, you know, two years
Speaker 1: away from the surgery, we're going to see him move
Speaker 1: pretty quickly for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean definitely intriguing stuff. He might be a
Speaker 2: bit of a loogie though, Like I I think Righty's
Speaker 2: are gonna have a field day kind of picking things,
Speaker 2: you know, before he pitches the ball, Like, I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to quickly id what exactly he's throwing.
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm off on that, but he could be unhittable
Speaker 2: to the lefties and in a big exploitation against Rioty's.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in my opinion, Well, Smith, we made it. We
Speaker 1: made it all the way through every level. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much. And before we go, I really want to
Speaker 1: give a shout out to the guys that that filled
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks ago. Liam ben Eli, thanks, Yeah,
Speaker 1: thanks to you guys stepping out looking forward. Got the
Speaker 1: draft coming up. Maybe we'll do some draft coverage.
Speaker 2: Proud of Liam, you know, shout out to Liam. I
Speaker 2: know him for many years. He was always really good
Speaker 2: at writing scouting reports. I thought he was kind of
Speaker 2: crazy and insane for some of his takes, but he's
Speaker 2: bold enough to write about it. And I always said, like, man,
Speaker 2: like you should get into writing. And I don't know
Speaker 2: if it was like, oh I don't know if I can,
Speaker 2: or it was I don't know if I want to.
Speaker 2: But yeah, man, he's killing it with the draft coverage.
Speaker 1: She is. He did a great job on the podcast.
Speaker 1: The names he brought up, I had to look him
Speaker 1: up and they were really interesting names. He did a
Speaker 1: great job. So yeah, yeah, all right, Well that's going
Speaker 1: to wrap it up for us for another episode. Smith,
Speaker 1: thank you again for joining me. Thank you to our listeners.
Speaker 1: Join us again in a couple of weeks and we'll
Speaker 1: be back for another episode of He Check see y'all