Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start the show by
being transparent, and yesterday I had one play and it
was pretty terrible. It was the Pacers plus six. It
didn't come close, So I need to do better than
that here. Today I am back home, so maybe I
can get some of that Vegas luck back Veno. Hopefully
yesterday was better for you. How you doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm good Ski. Yesterday NBA was good for me because
I only had one play and it was the Bucks
team Total over we left that here was the best
bet for the show. It was pretty easy wire to
wire for them to get to where they wanted to
get to. But typical Doc Rivers fashion, he lost that
game in the last three minutes. So Milwaukee not good
as a side, but definitely good as a team. Total
will take it. We're already in the books with a win.
This morning in college basketball, Holy Bird Riser got ourselves
another win, so maybe getting back home is the key. Ski.
Speaker 1: Travel is rough, Yeah, travel is rough, but let's get
to it. We got six games in association to talk
about here today. I did play a couple of them.
One of them I really do what I bought out.
But we'll actually talk about that game first. That is
Wizards and Sixers open thirteen and a half still looks
like thirteen and a half. Total open two thirty six
and a half, and that's down as low as two
thirty four and a half. Injury report for Philly, you
have Drumming questionable, Paul George questionable, Grimes questionable, no embiid
Uber or Watford. For Washington, Keyshawn George questionable. You have
no Middleton, Star, Kittsburg, Johnson, or Cooper. So initially, I
know the Wizards are on the back to back, but
I was still liking him. The Sixers they did just
play that double overtime game, and I was surprised to
see Drumming even get any minutes in that game. You know,
he just had an MRI the day before, and usually
when guys have MRIs, you know it's a bigger injury
than just you know, getting right back out there the
next game. He only played five minutes, So I do
think he is really banged up. But I think that
Philly just needs some you know, they need some size.
That's why also in b play last game, but no
one beat this game drumming, questionable. I'm just I don't
know how effective he's going to be out there. At
the same time, I was expecting some of these guys
to play for the Wizards. I wasn't expecting everybody to
be out Saar Middleton, Trey Johnson, Keyshine, George questionable. It's
starting to become too much. So I did bet the
Wizards yesterday. I have now bought it out. Like I said,
I rarely do it, but it just it's too tough
for me now with the injury report. What do you
think here of you now?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And on the other side too, Ski, because when
Quentin Grimes got downgraded for Philly from probable to questionable,
that hurts them as well. I know what they want
to do. You mentioned they're small, and just being here
in the area and seeing them almost every night, they
want to pace pace things up. And of course when
you have Washington and on the back to back a
little bit short handed because of their injury report, you
want to go. But the team total here is one
twenty four and a half where Philly's concerned and I
can't get there, not without you know, I would need
Grimes in there. I know McCain is capable, but I
don't know that they have enough tyree smacks. He had
to get fifty four the other night for them. He
does an awful lot. I couldn't find an edgy either
way in this game. I really don't want to lay
that price with the seventy six ers. I don't want
to play the total up and over because I don't
trust Washington's side as much. Here now, maybe Washington team
total under if I try to rethink this and reposition myself.
But I have no play and I don't see any
reason to try and force one there.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll keep going. Next game up, we have
Blazers and Raptors opened up five stufups like five total.
Though it's come down from two thirty four seeing it
as low as two thirty and when I look at
the injury report, RJ. Barrett is out for the Blazers,
Clinging is still questionable. No Scoot, Drew, Tibo or Wesley
for them. You know, this is another one that I
like quite a bit. I agree with the market for
the total coming down. I didn't get the best of
the number at two thirty four, but I got two
thirty two and a half. And you know, a lot
of these games for the Raptors, I've come and I've
talked about their how good their defense has been. And
I've been playing their opponent's team total hunders, which has
been pretty pretty you know, pretty good this year. And
I thought about that again here versus Blazer's team, and
I thought, why not include the Raptors side, because ever
since RJ got hurt, they just been struggling to score.
Now I think about RJ. You know, he's more of
an offensive player than defense. The defense improves actually with
him out, in my opinion, So I think that's why
we're seeing his Raptors offense struggle lately. They've gone under
and five straight. I think this is another undergame here, Rob.
You know, how do you see it?
Speaker 2: Well, we see it exactly the same, except you beat
me to the punch by a little bit, because I
got two thirty two under the Toronto team total ski
is five and oh to the under last five games
full game five and oh to the under Toronto team
total five and oh to the under. And you're right,
they hadn't been able to score at all as of late.
You would have it would have been even better. I
think if Drew Holliday was going to play in this
game as far as s Portland defense against them, you know,
and then I could have gotten to Toronto team to
little maybe individually, but I still think that, you know,
this is the first game for Portland of a road trip.
Generally you have the most energy in the first game
of the road trip. Even without Drew Holliday, they could
be worth a look as the underdog in this game,
simply because Toronto hasn't scored enough to create separation as
of late. But I chose the high road here, which
was play under. Like I said, I got two thirty two.
I'm looking at it right now. It's down to two
thirty and a half. Maybe you already said that, but
it has been bet down pretty solidly, and I agree
with it. Ski until Toronto comes out of this offensive
rut and as you as you mentioned, they're playing really
really good defenses. You put those two together. We like
to go to math school around here, at logic school.
Two plus two weeks put me on the under So
I think there's still maybe even some wiggle room left
at two thirty and a half. Maybe you could still
stay under this number.
Speaker 1: I think there is still Wigoran honestly, I mean, look
at the Raptors games lately. I don't think any of
them hit two twenty nine. I mean twenty eight and
a half. Even I think there's a little bit of
a wicker room. Still my bad. A lot of people
in the chat, like in the Raptors first half, I
can understand when they get in and get out. It's
just I struggle. I mean, this offense has just been
so bad, so I don't want to bet the side.
Next game, Knicks and Celtics opened up minus one for
the Knicks. I'm now saying, I mean, it depends where
your shot, but most shots have the Celtics as minus one.
Right now, total dick go up from two twenty eight.
That's how it's two thirty one and a half. Everybody
is healthy for Celtics. We know Tatum has been out
for the Knicks. Og is out, Shammon is out. The
Knicks have one four in a row. This is the
first of a back to back for them. That will
play the horn is tomorrow. For the Celtics team, it
is their third game of four nights. They did lose
to the Knicks a little earlier in the season, if
I'm not mistaken, maybe a chance for them to get
some revenge here. I don't know, you know, this was
not when I had one the stronger oppinons on, So
I'm on pass this one to you first. Is anything
you have on Nicks and Celtics.
Speaker 2: Well, I was thinking of taking a little bit of
a chance here on the Boston Celtics team total over
one fifteen and a half, because they look better since
they're fully healthy. In fact, their team totally opposite of
Toronto's kind of They're four and one over their number
last five games with everybody being back on the floor
for the most part. But the Knicks counter that ski
by playing unders the last four games. Now, I tried
to justify it a little bit by saying, you know what,
the Knicks didn't play good offenses in those games, or
even good teams. They played Brooklyn, they played Charlotte, they
played Milwaukee, which is a good offense, and they played Toronto.
But still those games fell under the total. All four
times Knicks team total under three of the four. I
still m you know, my feeling here, My gut feeling
is that Boston's offense is clicking right now, and I'd
rather play that side. I could see it getting into
a little bit more of a high scoring game because
I don't know if Boston can defend the Knicks thoroughly.
But I don't know. I'd rather ride the hot hand here.
If I'm gonna play, it's gonna be Boston team total
up and over one fifteen and a half, the game
you talked about earlier this year one oh five ninety
five Knicks ten point win and under. But again, Boston
has been a little sporadic up until now. And at
what Pritchard had forty two the other day, I think, right,
I remember I was harping on Peyton Pritchard a little
bit from bench to starter, not as good. But he
seems to be turning a bit of a corner here also,
So maybe Boston team total looks kind of appealing to me.
I don't know that I buy into the Knicks holding
their opponents down score wise last four games, simply based
on the majority of their opponents.
Speaker 1: Well, looking at the Celtics home game so far this season,
they are the number one offensive rad the team, whatever
that's worth. So maybe looking at some points for that side,
we'll keep going down the list. Next game we have
Minnesota and New Orleans opened up minus nine and a
half now minus twelve or even twelve and a half
for those Timberwolves total hasn't really moved too much. I
don't see anybody on the injury report from Minnesota. For
New Orleans, though you see questionable Zion, questionable, Herb Jones, Mackovich,
Murray and pull are all out for the Pelicans. It
will be the third game and Fortnite for both of
these teams, you know, just to put it simply, you know,
Timberwolves our team of us at least so far, they
struggle with the better teams. They demolished the weaker teams.
Pelican's one of those weaker teams. I mean they are
on the road though it's a big number to lay
on the road. But as of right now, I agree
with the market anything for you on Wolves and Pelicans,
and I think.
Speaker 2: The market moved, you know, based on the Zion news.
Once he got downgraded, there went the number straight up.
I'm a little bit hesitant. I've been on Minnesota's side
a couple of times this year and gotten burned, especially
on the road laying points. However, you know, New Orleans
for what it's worth just can't play any defense. Ski
and Minnesota. Again, it's a game where I looked at
a team total just thinking why not only fade the
Pelicans defense and go ahead and play the Timberwolves offense.
I'm not so sure they've left me hanging at the
door a couple of so it was a game I
really couldn't get to no play yet. I think if
I had to, I would try to find some way
to play that Minnesota individual total, kind of just playing
against New Orleans defense, because New Orleans defense, that's the
one constant, that thing never gets better. They just kind
of like the way I played Milwaukee against Washington last night,
just score points because they can't defend Minnesota. Maybe the
same thing here and again to your point, they're healthy.
Minnesota's dealt with a lot of injuries this season on
and off. Being fully healthy could help here. I'd like
to say that standings matter and Minnesota needs to get
some wins, but I think we know better standings don't
really matter until after All Star break for these teams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll hear you on that. This one is ah,
this one is tough, so I'm gonna move along. I
think these next two games are better than this one,
so we will go. Let's go to Memphis. Let's see
if I can get that up there at Memphis and
San Antonio. There we go opened up five still five
or five and a half. Tottle didn't really move either,
or at least it's you know, still right around the opener,
is what I'm saying there. As far as the injury report,
Landale questionable. Still no Clark, Jerome or at Pippin or
small for the Spurs. Winby Castle, McLoughlin or main out
Ingram is questionable. I like the way the Grizzlies have
been playing lately, I do, But the Spurs, you know
that they've been They've been playing solid too. Without Winby.
Spurs have already beaten this Grizzlies team. I just have
trouble laying with this Spurs team without Winby. I mean,
looking at their wins lately. I mean they have one
couple of games by margin. It's just it's tough for
me to push that button if I don't have Winby
out there, even with Wimby, Like, I don't like laying
multiple posessions with the Spurs, so that automatically makes me
want to lean towards the Grizzlies here. Grizzlies definitely have
been the better defense lately, Grizzlies have been the better
rebounding team. I mean, why don't we bet the Grizzlies
in this game, then, Raveno.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, once upon a time, about two and
a half weeks ago, three weeks ago, when these point
guard injuries hit Memphis, I thought it was going to
be a real problem. But it hasn't. You know, it
looks like they've learned how to play around it, because
you're right, five and one against the spread last six games.
Vince Williams playing a pretty good brand of point Memphis
still a little bit lacking on the defensive side, but
good on the offensive side. My first inclination here was
to play over in this game, but San Antona it
is their first home game off a four game road trip,
and generally we don't like to be on the home
team in those situations. So maybe a vote for the
underdog in that particular situation for Memphis, fourth road right
the end of a road trip here, fourth game, fourth
road game, and a four game road trip, So I
guess those counteract one another. I could see points in
this game, Ski, to your point about wembin Yama, they've
also learned to play because it's been Stephen Castle and
wemben Yama both out, and they've learned how to get
around that there since Dearon Fox came back. I think
you're a little bit quicker of a team. I trust
them to score on Memphis. I kind of trust Memphis
to score back, so I might get there with a
total play here, but I didn't play it. It was
a little too difficult for me to really establish something sidewise,
and maybe maybe total that's a gut feeling more than
statistical or fundamental reasoning play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm thinking about I mean even player props here eighty.
I feel like Eightie's been playing solid lately going up
against Cornet. I mean, I want to do something for
Edie or I'm at least looking to bet and Edie.
That's what I'll say there, And then we can move
over to the last game on the slate, that is
Thunder and Warriors. And this one opened eight and a
half for okay, see is upp as high as twelve
total open two twenty six and a half, and it's
come down seeing as low as two twenty two and
a half. Right now, Caruso out, Doort out, Hardenstein out
for the Warriors, Draymond is probable, Jimmy's questionable, TJ D
is questionable, Steph Horford, Melton two hey all out for
this Warriors team. Man, if you know so, I understand,
I mean, Steph is we knew stuff was out already,
but I guess maybe it's Jimmy questionable. But Caruso out
Doort out, Hartenstein out. It's a lot of defense missing
for that Thunder team. If they're playing anybody else except
for this Golden State team. Mind is Steph Curry. I'll
be trying to look towards betting and over that Golden
State offense has just been pitiful without steps so far
this season. So saying all that, I mean, I'll just
ride with the the one thing that's not really matchup based,
it's just how do you call it? Maybe is it
a motion based or whatever? I like Draymond and Draymond
under points and assists fourteen and a half, and it's
just based on we know he don't like to play.
When Steph's not on the court, he's either gonna he
might not even get to play the night at all,
which get our money back. He might go out there
and get a couple of flagrants and get thrown out,
or he might just end up with two points like
you did the last game. I mean, we've seen this
too many times. I think he's only hit this number
four out of the last fifteen or so without Steph Curry.
So Draymond under points and assists. What do you think
about thunder and Warriors? Rovino?
Speaker 2: I played, I actually played this game. I played the
OKC team total over one seventeen and a half. The
guys that you mentioned, Caruso, dort Hartenstein all defense, but
not a lot of offense, missing Skei. The key here
for me is that their offensive pieces are still in there.
The backcourt exists with Shay Gilgs Alexander and Jalen Williams
and ched Holmgren up in the middle, and all the
scorers seem to remain here. We're missing some you know,
bench type scores eight to eleven a game, but I
don't think that matters here against the Golden State defensive
unit that's gonna confront them tonight. So for me, I
think it was the simplest form of getting to over
because I started the way you started your analysis here,
thinking that I would play this game over. But the
Golden State injury list, when I looked at who's going
to be on the floor, thought to myself, you know what,
Golden State's not missing a lot of points, they're missing
a lot of defense. I wish I could get there,
thinking that Golden State what's going to be on the
floor could score against OKAC even without those three defenders,
you know what I mean. But don't have enough faith.
So I'm put my eggs in one basket here, the
OKC basket. They've scored over one eighteen for their last
five games. Somehow, some way, they seem to get there
all the time. They don't cover all the time because
they're laying such huge numbers, but seemingly they always get
two and around the one twenty marks. So for me, okay,
see over one seventeen and a half team total.
Speaker 1: And uh, I could see it. The only thing I
would say is if the Warriors are going to cover
this game. I'm not saying they are. That's to bear
them playing defense, I guess. But yeah, yeah, I'm not
on the Warriors. So all right, that's the NBA slave
for today. We can move it on over to or
before we move to best Best, let's do some of
that promo stuff. It is also five dollars. Tuesday, I
have a best bet up and available. Robino has the
best bet up and available. You can get them for
five dollars. Yeah, and to see, you know, see if
you like what the write up says, See if you
like whatever we're talking about, see if we win, and
then maybe you want to rock with some other stuff
we have going outside of that. This continues to be
a thing. Weekend Warrior. If you want to get every
football play you know from you, rob or myself Saturday
Sunday included, it's gonna be forty nine dollars. That includes
any five percent releases and Monday Night Football. We have
the full court all Access pass three days at NBA
and college basketball only forty nine dollars, and then the
long term five hundred dollars off. A one year pass
comes out to just one twenty five a month, And
if you were to get a year passed for Robino,
we'd also get a twenty five percent bonus keep on
that you could use on anything for myself or whatever
you want to use it on. So I think that
is a pretty good job right there. You know, we
can move it on over the best bets, and if
there is anything else you want to mention or promote,
feel free. If you have the best bet for the show,
we'd love to hear it.
Speaker 2: I think promotions are all covered.
Speaker 1: Ski.
Speaker 2: Plenty of stuff available there at wager talk dot com, including,
like Ski said, the five dollar Tuesday play. There's also
for those interested in college football, a college Football Bowl
special up right now. It could even be Bowl plus
Super Bowl Special. I don't have the exact details in
front of me, but I know it's available to go
ahead and check it out wager talk dot com. I'll
just start where we left off. Was the first bet
I made today. It's the biggest bet I made today. Okay,
see team total over one seventeen and a half. I
basically laid out why I played it. It's a team
that just finds their way to that number on a
nightly basis. Ski. We'll see if they can do it again.
I hope they can. But that's my play. Best bet
play for today Oklahoma is City team total up and
over one seventeen and a half.
Speaker 1: I like it for myself. You know, I'll go with
that Draymond under. Like I said, I bet under fourteen
a half points plus assist. Believe he stayed under that.
I think it was five out of seventeen games it
was without Steph Curry. And I mean, we know, I
don't have to explain too much. He does not want
to be out there on the court when Steph is
not playing, so and he doesn't have a lot of success.
A lot of his success is tied to Steph. So
that would be my best bet for the show. You
no appreciate you taking the time to break these games
down with me. We'll be back doing it again tomorrow.
Everybody out there in the chat appreciate you as well.
We're all just trying to help each other get to
the window. And yeah, like I said, we'll be back tomorrow.
Be seleuck everybody on all your actions tonight and we'll
catch you guys.