Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It's Monday. It's time for
total bases.
Speaker 2: Little extra not that I need it, Brian, put a
little extra caffeine for me this morning.
Speaker 1: I was up late watching.
Speaker 2: The Buffalo Bills pull off one of the comebacks of
maybe ever that I can remember in a regular season
football game. That's our team here in Central New York.
So if you're wondering Central New York all the way
out to Buffalo, almost all Bills fans.
Speaker 1: You get the scattered Giants, no.
Speaker 2: Jets fans out here. It's weird where I grew up
from in Albany. There's a lot of Giants and Jets
out here, and no one's a Jets fan. But anyway,
what a way to sort of close out Week one
of the NFL. This is a baseball show, though, and
we're gonna be talking bases for the next hour. Brian Leonard,
your Cleveland Guardians are sort of back in the mix
here in the wildcard race. Two and a half back,
and it looks like them and the Royals are going
to decide who's here to stay or not over the
next couple of days. So we've got people in the
live chat. Welcome in appreciate you guys here, and we're
gonna start with Guardian's Royal, So Brian Leonard give it
set the table for US. Guardians Royal is kind of
a big series. Both these teams keep hanging around. Will
one of these teams be for real after this series?
Speaker 1: Is the question? And who do you like in this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah? According to the ESPN website, Cleveland has a seven
point seven percent percent chance to make the playoffs, Kansas
City eleven point seven, Texas fourteen point seven, and it's
all coming on. The Seattle Mariners continuing to struggle. They
did win their last two, but they're only four and
six seventy nine point five percent, where just a couple
weeks ago it was about ninety percent. So their fade
keeps a lot of peat, a lot of these other
teams alive. This is a game that I'm excited about
because I think it's got some nice betting opportunities. You
got Burger going against State chacone. Jacarti is about anywhere
from a one to ten to a one to fifteen
favorite here ven seeing a one to twenty at a
couple of places, but total is eight slightly to the
over and when I look at this game, Chaconi has
not been good. He in fact, he's been pretty bad.
His walk grade's pretty good eighty seventh percentile, but he
comes in with a four point seven to eighty RA
five point seven to one, expected one point three to
zero whip a lot of single digits here on his
statcast page. Expected thera fifth percentile, expected banning average sixth average,
Jackson velocity first, chase right, third, barrel right second, hard
hit first. He's a guy I'm looking a bet against.
And if you've seen the Cleveland bullpen situation for this game,
they've got Kate Smith, who I wrote up. I used
the under is my free play yesterday and I said
that he wasn't going to be available. Well, he came
in for the same through eighteen pitches, so now he's
pitched three games in a row. I gatarantee he will
not be in this game. Hunter Gatis has pitched thirty
two pitches the last two days. He may not play.
So you've got their best two arms in the bullpen
which will not be there, and a pitcher who gets
knocked around a lot. That's not a pretty sight. The Royals,
on the other hand, I think we'll have a little
bit of success here. The Royals bullpen comes in and Estevez,
Ursag and Schreiber have not pitched any of the last
three days. They did have sort of a lot of
their guys pitching the bullpen yesterday, but not their best relievers.
And if you go up to their starter on today's card,
you're looking at a guy that think is a little
bit overrated right now. Ryan Berger comes in with a
two point six one four point oh four expected one
point nine whip. If you take a look at his
status page overall, he's he's pretty good at hard hit
percentage of seventy five, barrel right sixty five fourth and
expected Benny Edwards the sixty eighth percentile, but he does struggles.
Ground ball rate is only third, so it'll be a
fly ball pitcher this city. This ballpark in Cleveland plays better,
much better in the summer. And his walk grade is
a seventeenth percentile and his chase rights seventeenth percent of
So we've got two guys that I think can get hit.
The only difference is I like the Kansas City bullpen
a lot better than Cleveland. In this game, I'm lucky
to play either Kansas City in the game at about
even money plus one hundred or so, or the Kansas
City team total over three and a half at minus
one thirty. That one is one. I checked that a
few minutes ago. Let me check it again because it
is getting a little bit of money. It's up to
one forty in some spots here, but I would still
play that. That's probably my better play on this game
is Kansas City over three and a half team total
one forty. If you can't play that, you can always
play the over eight. Right now, they're still over eights
at minus one twenty, but there there's a few eight
and a halfs now, so if you're gonna play it,
play it now before it gets the eight and a half.
Speaker 4: So I just won two five percent plays over the
weekend feeling good, went to and Oh yesterday in MLB
so liking stuff, and I have another five percent at
play out today, So I'm sure these two guys are
gonna have something out today to go to wager talk
dot com and see what we have with our free
plays as well. Regarding this one, I have both bullpens
ranked fairly even and both fairly good. But like Brian said,
the Guardians have had a lot of bullpen usage and
they're not gonna be leveraging their best guys. So slight
advantage of Kansas City there, but I would love to
take Kansas City. Bergert Is has pitched well, but like
Brian said, I I also think he's a little bit overrated.
But my numbers love him, so I can't really ignore
that CHACONI my numbers hate him. I got him ARKD
twenty six on a curve of thirty, so he's in
the bottom one third of pitchers. But he is this guy.
I've mentioned it on previous shows, but every time I
fade him, he comes out and throws six innings of
shut out ball, and every time I back him, he
blows up for six runs in the first three innings,
So I stay away from his games. I can see
the Royals bats are a little bit cold. Cleveland's bats
are a little bit cold too. Kansas City's bullpen performing
well and bergert performing well, So if anything, I would
do a Cleveland team total under. But looking at Pinnacle
right now, it's three and a half to plus one nineteen.
I don't like three and a half's in MLB, even
if it's the Guardians, so I'll probably pass on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is so I probably have four plays.
Oh first, I know what I want to say, Mark Martin,
So you guys are late. Probably Tokyo's fault. No, that
was one hundred percent of my fault. I decided, Yeah, sixty.
I decided sixty seconds before the show that I needed
to explain to TV and Brian Leonard like where I
was in proximity to the Canadian border. No no idea
why I felt the need to do that at eight
fifty nine am, but I did so. No, it's my
fault that we're late. But we're gonna be going. Well,
we'll go to ten on one. We'll go to ten
on one for you guys today, I got four plays
or I got four kind of leans on the MLB
card today that I'm gonna have to decide which ones
are plays, which ones are not. I did not bet
an MLB game Saturday and Sunday. It's not that I
didn't want to. I just I had such a bad
taste in my mouth from the previous two days. Friday night,
I played the Red Sox and totally didn't pitch well.
And I really was waiting for the deck to be reshuffled,
if you will. The new matchups I couldn't get. I
just couldn't find ways into the weekend matchups. And now
here we are on a Monday, and I like like
every single matchup. So now I've got to figure out
how to pare it down. One of the four plays
I one of the four sides I'm very strongly considering
is the Royals, a lot of which has been been
talked about here. Really Brian kind of hit the nail
on the head with the bullpen usage. Slay Tocny is
someone that we've talked about on the show a couple
of times. I really feel like the Guardian, I almost
feel like he's playing with house money to an extent,
or at least the Guardians feel like, you know, that's
that's kind of what they're doing putting him out there.
They don't have a really have it, They don't have
a better option right now. But he's also sort of
earned the right to like fail, I feel like relative
to the other options that they have. That being said, like,
you know, when they grabbed him, the Diamondbacks completely gave
up on him. They tried sending him back to Reno
on multiple occasions they actually worked on his change up.
Speaker 1: I I follow the Diamondbacks closer than I.
Speaker 2: Do most teams, and so I kind of followed him
through his sort of developmental stage in that organization, and
when they sent him back down, they really want him
to work on the change up. It just didn't work.
He gets to Cleveland. If you look at a Stackcats page,
he should be getting crushed. It's actually incredible that he hasn't.
So I think where the Guardian's at and where he's at,
it's just like, well, we don't really have a better option.
Not really sure how he's doing it, but he's got
a one to three whip and his era is under five.
I mean he does get through five innings sometimes, but
as Brian pointed out, great, if he gives you five
good innings here, that's nice.
Speaker 1: What are you gonna do for the other four?
Speaker 2: When of a lot of your top bullpen guys are
used and we are getting to the point where it's
kind of like playoff baseball, and I just think the
Royals look more like a team that can win a
close playoff type grind game.
Speaker 1: They have the bullpen arms to do it.
Speaker 2: So as long as Burget doesn't get blown up, which
you know, I don't think he's going to not by
this Guardians lineup, even though I do agree with Brian
he's probably got a little regression in his profile. I
think it's got to lean you toward the Royals here,
and then you look at the price and the Royals
are actually I guess the slightest of underdogs right now,
right around even money maybe minus one oh two. I
think that's incorrect. I think the Royal should phighvi about
minus one twenty here. So that's one that I'm strongly considering.
Run differential on the year Royals what minus one Guardians
of minus forty eight. That just tells you all you
need to know about the Guardians offense because I think
the pitching has been.
Speaker 1: Kind of similar for both teams. Royals have the edge,
and you know, I'll just let's just get it started.
I'll throw that in the parlay. I'm gonna make the
Royals my parlay lake here.
Speaker 2: So Brian, what do we look at for a price
right there?
Speaker 3: About plus one oh one right now? It's varying, And
will point out anybody's got a bet online account, they
just went to seven and a half over fifteen. I'm
looking at the the progressive field is supposed to be
nine percent under. The wind is blowing in a little bit,
but I don't care with these these pictures are on
the mound. There's no way if this line should be
seven and a half. So if you've got a bet
online account, bet that seven and a half over right
now at minus one fifteen. I think that's the hell
of a bargain.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And if you don't, you should. Bet Online's a
great spot.
Speaker 2: I feel like I've trained any of my long term
clients probably have it at this point because they're one
of the few places that actually lets you bet triple
A baseball and gives you reasonable odds to do so.
Actually let you play it two to three, sometimes even
four times. They might change the number on you, but
they'll still let you get down on that.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I am a big fan of bet online,
and Dave comes on our shows once in a while,
So shout out to Dave and shout out to bet online.
Speaker 2: All right, let's move it along, here we go. Mark
Kinson brings up a game that I knew we were
gonna want to talk about. He says, I'm just having
bad luck with might go full game or might just
take McLean CA's Philly batters are aggressive, they'll strike out that.
So he's he's bringing up the Phillies Mets game. We've
got Nolan McLain and Brian. The first thing I noticed
when I pulled up the odds, I was like, Man,
Nolan McClain keeps coming up in these spots where he's
facing pretty good teams, and the books really can't I
feel like juice him up the way that they want to.
Speaker 1: Uh you saw I think the last series.
Speaker 2: He pitched and he finally he was finally starting to
creep up into that minus one fifty range. But now
he's on the road against the Phillies. So I feel
like it puts the Books in a little bit of
a tough spot because Nolan McLain's filthy. I retweeted this
on Friday, go look at like I think Rob Friedman
put it up on Twitter. His his pitch tunneling is
so good that like he's got a pitch that one
takes a hard right and one takes a hard left,
and they look identical.
Speaker 1: The batters have no clue what way it's going. Some
horrible swing. I think Nolan McLean is the real deal,
and what Markins is saying is you can still get
him minus one twenty if you're willing to go against
the Phillies. So, Brian Leonard, are you willing to go
against the Phillies with McLean? Here?
Speaker 3: If I'm playing, I'm laying with McLean. He's currently about
one let's go one twenty two a total of nine
under or eight and a half over. He's going against
Aaron Nola, and Aaron Nola is not having a great
year and he may be coming to the end of
what has been a very good career. Nolan mclan four
and oh on the season on one point three seventy
the RA expected the RA two point four to five,
so it's legit. And his whip zero point seven six.
The guy's gone twenty six point one innings and he's
got a whip a zero point seven six That is
pretty impressive. Although it's still a small sample size of
just over twenty six innings. It's clear if you look
at his numbers that his ground bow percentage is great,
strikeout percentage expected the RA expected batting average. The only
thing a little bit weak is his Chase percentage is
only a twenty five point six percent and his hard
hit rate is at forty forty second point excuse me,
forty two point four percentile. So he's been everything expected.
And if you take a look at the bullpen here
for the Mets, we see that they're in a pretty
good place. Yesterday only Rogers and Rie Garrett returned from
the aisle. That's another guy who's really good in the bullpen.
They've got so many good bullpen arms on this Mets team,
so they've got they've got everybody available. Philadelphia, on the
other hand, let's take a look at that, and we've
got the Phillies bullpen situation. They Duran's pitched two of
the last four days. He should be available. Yeah, they're
a pretty good shape too. So both bullpens are in
pretty good shape here. But I think the pitching advantage
from the starter is definitely Alan MacLean. Aaron Nola comes
in with a six point seven EIGHTYRA but only a
four point ninety one expected one point five to one whip,
which has really been his problem this year. His career
whip is one point one five. He's got a career
in the eleven seasons three point eight three ra. So
while last year he was very similar to his career records,
this year and somewhat in twenty twenty three, he's taken
a step back. His chase rates great ninety six percentile,
extension eighty eighth percentile, but expected thera fifteenth, expected batting
average fourteenth, fastball velocity twelfth, and he still throws that
for seemer in twenty nine percent of the time. That
along with his curve, sinker and change, is really what
he uses the most. But I'm not a huge fan
of Nola. The way he's pitched this year, it's a
clear pitching advantage for the Mets, for the starters. So
while you're laying like a one to twenty one twenty
five range for the Mets, let's see what we can
do in the first half. First half, you're getting basically
the same thing five cents moller or whatever. I prefer
that because I think the Phillies bullpen comes in as
good a shape as the Mets here. So the second
half of the game to me, as a toss up,
first half of the game is something I'm interested in,
and I can get as low as one twenty one McLean,
but most of the average is about one thirty range.
I still think that's a pretty good bet. I would
look at that. I'd look at the first five for
the Mets at minus one thirty. I'm starting off the
day with a little bit of chalk here. We'll see
how this goes. Normally, I'm an underdog player, but anytime
baseball season overlaps with football, we've got better chances to
make money. And I'm number one over the last month
in that regard. So yes, work it out for us,
and my clients are pretty happy at this point. Yeah.
Speaker 4: My first look at this game, I thought, Wow, Mets
would love them, and then I hope, hope, hoping they
were underdogs, and I went to the book to see
the line and they were favorites. Phillies are a good team, guys.
Let's not forget. They have eighty three wins and the
Mets have seventy six. So Phillies are a good team.
The problem is Aaron Nola is not quite himself right now,
hasn't been pitching very well at all, and the problem
another problem for the Phillies is the Mets are crushing
it right now. Finally they got one, so too. Hitting,
they got everyone everyone's everyone's contributing, so the Mets are
finally producing. I got them ranked number four out of
thirty teams in current form, but I got the Phillies
ranked sixth, So both of these teams are actually producing.
Phillies bullpen much better than the Mets at the current form.
I think the Mets have a top five bullpen in
Major League Baseball, but in current form I got them
ranked twenty three. They're underperforming grossly. And McLain he's got
four starts and they were all good, and his numbers
are eye popping, like like Brian pointed out all the stats.
I mean, I think the value is there for Mets
first five. I don't trust their bullpen right now. So
if you do play them, I play him first five.
I don't know if I'll get there or not, but
if I am going to get there, that would be
how I would do it. Or I would take a
Mets team total over one or the other.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be METSR pass for me.
Speaker 2: The So if you want to see what I was
talking about, I retweeted McLain. If you go to my Twitter,
you can see what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: With McLain.
Speaker 2: It's a sweeper and a sinker, and the tunneling is
so good. Tunneling meaning like arm slot, the same where
the ball is released, the same that. I mean, hitters
are just straight up clueless right now. I can't bet
against that, not until, not until the league either figures
out how to pick that up a little bit, or
he's just he has hit her so off balance right
now that I wouldn't want to bet against him now.
The problem with this series for me is the fact that,
like both teams are somewhat locked into their spot. I
don't think there's any way the Mets are catching the Phillies.
They're seven games out of the division. That being said,
the Mets of a four game lead on that final
playoff spot, so they probably even after two losses, they
probably feel a little bit comfortable in that regard. Do
the Phillies, like, are they going to be up for
this because the Mets just swept them?
Speaker 1: Maybe?
Speaker 2: Right, Like I mean, the Mets just embarrassed them a
couple of weeks ago, city Field took the whole series,
swept him, Maybe they'll be a little up for it, obviously,
Like Tokyo Braanda made some great points.
Speaker 1: This Phillies teams still very good.
Speaker 2: I don't know that the you know, the I don't
know that you could say the Mets are like the
clear cut better team here. I do think gives them
an edge, but I don't know that the Mets are
the better team. So this one's difficult for me. I
still lean towards the Mets, and it's really because of
how high I am i McClean.
Speaker 1: So maybe I'll sort of like go, you know, agree
with some of.
Speaker 2: The chat and say, you know, do you do you
fight a way to isolate the first five? Do you
try to play on the aggressiveness of the Phillies hitters
and look for a strikeout prop? All of those things
are all the things. All those things are reasonable ways
to play it. But another thing that kind of popped
out is I have the standings in front of me here,
Mets thirty one and forty on the road this year,
and this is one of the hardest ballparks to win it.
If you were to go back to the beginning of
last season, or maybe the season before. I think it's
the beginning of last season, Philly, if they don't have
the best home record in the League. They certainly have
one of the best three home records in the league
forty five and forty five and twenty three at Citizens
Bank Park this year, and I want to say two,
So I think you'd have to go back two years ago.
But the year that they made the World Series, I
mean or yeah, they made the I'm sorry, the NLCS
and they lost the Diamondbacks insane home record, it's been
one of the toughest places for a visiting team to win,
So I'm just not sure I want to bet into that.
Speaker 1: But the Mets from a matchup standpoint, I want no
part of Aaronola right now. So who knows. Maybe maybe
the over.
Speaker 2: I think Mark Martin was pointing out the over and
you had a couple other other guys in the chat
agreeing with him. All reasonable options here. I'm just not
sure I get to the window in one of them.
But I think they're all reasonable sort of ways to
look at this game.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see, let's go move it along.
Speaker 2: Pretty good, pretty good Monday slate here. And oh, one
other thing I want to point out. Yeah, like the Royals,
I will be looking at Bobby WIT's status for the game.
I know he tweaked, like his back or something, and
it's possible he misses for our parlay.
Speaker 1: I still like it. I think if Witt.
Speaker 2: Is announced in, the Royals likely go to like minus
one fifteen minus one twenty. I still think they probably
win without him here. That's just how how little faith
I have enslaved to Cody. So I will be keeping
I will be keeping the parlay piece. I'm not changing
it because of that, but it's certainly something that you
should have your eye and you should know if you
plan to bet Royals Guardians. Is that Bobby Witt, obviously
Kansas City's best player, is dealing with I think like
a tweaked back or something. So keep an eye on
that throughout the day. All right, let's move on. I
was gonna try to grab another game from the chat,
but it's like everyone's talking about the same games we've
already covered, So I'll throw I'll throw one out there
that I want.
Speaker 1: To talk about. Let's go, Let's go. Cubby's Braves Clubs
on the Road Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: The Braves keep coming to play, even though they didn't
come to play yesterday. They got rolled, but still they
I thought they were gonna kind of fade into a
obscurity in September. They've actually given a respectable effort so far.
So now they get the Cubs in their building, start
the series tonight. How are you seeing this one? Cubs Braves?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Braves drop seven to ten, lost their last two,
but they're only even though they're fifteen games under five hundred,
they're run de Parential's only minus thirty six. The Cubs,
on the other hand, are plus one, seventeen, five and
five their last ten. They're just trying to get out
right now. They and the Brewers have basically locked up
the playoffs, and so they're just trying to set themselves
up for the future. Inmanaga, let me give you the
line on this one. Monaga goes against elder A Moanaga,
the lefty. It's about a one twenty three road favorite
here total of nine to the under, eight and a
half to the over. Imanaga comes in with a three
point one five ERA three point eight two expected zero
point nine to three whip. Are you still a major
fly ball pitcher? Doesn't have a lot of velosions fastball,
but you know he's had great, great success in his
two seasons of the Major league's three point zh one
ERA zero point nine to nine. Whip Brand was talking
about it earlier about a guy that he struggles with.
I wanog is that way for me, So it seems
to be that I'm on the wrong side of whichever
game I bet with him. So he's not the first
guy that I'm looking to play on or against. But
Bryce Elder five point five four ERA four point eight two,
one point four to three whip ugly numbers, but he
has pitched better as of late major ground ball pitcher,
which is important in this ballpark because I think he's
a pretty good hitting ballpark eighty five percent of but
everything else is in the blue. Not the kind of
guy I'm looking to play on, although he seems to
be in a little better groove as the season goes on.
While I speak, some money is coming in on Atlanta
and now you can you can lay. The Cubs sit
like one oh nine in some places, so, uh, somebody
likes the Braves here and they played them, so give
us a little more reason to look that way. But
you're getting less of a number. I usually look to
bet against Elder, but I don't trust anything the way
the Cubs are playing right now, they seem to just
be going through the motions, so I'll sit this one.
I don't have much sad.
Speaker 4: Go to Wayga talk dot com and see what we
have up. I put a free play up and I
have a five percent play going, and I love the
KBO slate tomorrow or tonight. I have several KBO plays up,
and Adam will tell you as well. Waysger Talk lets
us do KBO and Non American Baseball for half price.
So go to WAJA talk dot com and see what
we have. My numbers love the Cubs in this game,
love them, and it's actually a margin that's big enough
to bet them on the side, but I'm not going
to because Elder is not a good picture. Actually, my
stats have him ranked twenty out of thirty on a
curve of thirty of all starting pitchers, and the Cubs
have a huge bullpen advantage here. I got the Cubs
ranked five in Atlanta, ranked twenty five in current form,
and neither team is ranked higher than seventeen in hitting.
So my numbers love the Cubs. But if you look
at Bryce Elder against the Cubs in his career, he's
got forty eight at bats against a one sixty seven
average against and a four eighty seven OPS seven point
fifty is the is the Mendoza line for eighty seven ops.
That's incredible. I don't know where these numbers are coming from,
but it's definitely a big enough red flag for me
not to play the Cubs today. Emonaga has been knocked
around by these Atlanta batters. He's got an eight hundred
plus OPS against in his career, although the sample size
not so large. Well, it's forty two at bats against.
So those two red flags right there are enough to
keep me off it. I might look at the Cubs
four and a half under team total. I might look
at that because of Elder's great numbers against them. I'm
not there yet. There might be other better spots to
bet out there today, but if I were to bet
this game, that's how I would do it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, turn buckle, Tommy. I made that comment on this
game before I got to all the chat, saying Cubs braves.
So the comments are kind of hard to sift through.
It's easy to get behind on them. So apologize for that.
Do I owe Bryce Elder an apology? Maybe I slandered
him on this show and ever since I really sort
of like, you know, came out and just pointed out
how he is really not deserving of a spot in
a big league rotation.
Speaker 1: Let's see what he's done.
Speaker 2: Six innings, two runs again the Mets, seven innings, one run,
three hits against the Phillies, and then against this Cubbies
team last time out. Seven innings of one run, ball,
six strikeouts, no walks. So does that make me think
Bryce Elders is this great pitcher?
Speaker 3: No, but.
Speaker 2: We'll point out you got to point out fact here
he's throwing it okay of late. And you know, I
guess where the Cubs are very similar to where the
Mets are right now, where it's like, you know, you
got to kind of figure out what the type of
motivation you're going to get out of this team. They're
seven and a half games back, they know they're not
going to catch the Brewers. They've got like a four
game cushion on the wild card. So you know, are
you getting like this like sort of especially on the
road right now, are you getting this like cutthroat effort
from them? I'm not saying that that that doesn't mean
they can't win regardless. I still think the only way
I would play this game is the Cubs, But I
do think they're in that sort of limbo area where
it's like, could they be are they looking at are
they just looking ahead to the playoffs at this point, TV,
you brought up their bullpen Daniel Palencia hurt himself over
the weekend. That's not ideal for them. However, I'm gonna
throw out a name for you guys. Keep an eye
on this name. His name's Jackson Wiggins.
Speaker 1: He just got called up from Double A to Triple
A and then they didn't They didn't use him for
like a week, and I think the reason that they
didn't use him is they were having the sort of
work on the side.
Speaker 2: Maybe they may want to to sort of bring him
in a bullpen role. Now, he did start a game
for Iowa on Saturday, looked pretty good. Now that Palencia
goes down, like he's probably the best arm in their organization,
that would that would be intriguing to me if they
That probably doesn't happen here because he pitched Saturday, But
keep an eye if he comes up, I think they're
gonna throw him in the bullpen.
Speaker 1: And if he's I mean, he's got one two winnings.
Speaker 2: He can probably get it up there and that that
would be a nice boost to the Cubs bullpen in
my opinion. So that's something to keep an eye on
for this game. I think I just have to roll
with Imanaga, and my mindset would be they just saw
Elder Elder shut them down. How how many how long
does it take to see Bryce Elder, who really doesn't
have a big time plus pitch at this point, to
figure him out.
Speaker 1: I think the Cobbies probably figure him out. So celeene
Cubs to me, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, two things. First of all, a great point about
them just saying I think that really is a big advantage. Also,
when he talked about apologizing for your thoughts on him
in the past, we called and it goes against you.
We we call that a TV On this show, Brandon
has a habit of telling somebody that they suck and
they turn around and they're great. So my plays that
they suck, so I can go on to feed to
the rest of the season. It's one of those dudes.
Speaker 4: The Milwaukee Brewers can thank me.
Speaker 1: I already told you. Then you're gonna be on. They're
gonna have you on the when they win the World Series.
They're gonna they're gonna be a parade you're toareat. Yeah,
Jake says Elder doesn't deserve an apology.
Speaker 3: I agree with that.
Speaker 1: I agree with that. He'll listen.
Speaker 2: He's gonna get slammed at some point, whether it's here
or I'll tell you right now that you don't. He
has four average pitches for the big leagues. Like, probably
gonna get slammed at some point, and very well could
be here because one thing, one thing that the Cubs are, you.
Speaker 1: Know they are.
Speaker 2: They've been hot and cold and they haven't like hit
to their to the where I feel like they should
be hitting at times. But when they have their their
like breakout, it's usually like an eight, eight, nine run
sort of outburst, kind of like we talked about on Friday.
Brian hit an easy over in that Nats Cubs game,
and they they sort of broke out quickly. So maybe
you get one of those, but I guess I'm less
less confident.
Speaker 1: In them doing that on the road.
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, just in general, Colin, I, I we
got to talk about this game. This is very important
in my opinion. So I feel like the the Red
Sox sort of set the tone for my baseball weekend,
which which really wasn't. I really didn't have any after
Friday night, so I got sucked in on Friday with
the Red Sox.
Speaker 1: I thought Peyton totally would pitch well.
Speaker 2: I thought the Red Sox, even without Roman Anthony, seeing
as they were facing a lefty wear in an okay
spot against the Diamondbacks, they were not. They lost that
game and I haven't bet an MLB game since, which
will change today. But Colin says the Red Sox are
missing Roman Anthony. I think that's a massive understatement. I
this the Red Sox are cooked, in my opinion, without
Roman Anthony.
Speaker 1: If they don't have him back.
Speaker 2: You can you can just they're not beating anyone because
he really I've noticed watching them now that their lineup
just doesn't have that juice without him.
Speaker 1: At the top of the order.
Speaker 2: He's He's And if you look at their season arc,
if you will, like go back to the you know
they were ten games hundred five hundred, they sweat the Yankees,
and that was the time that their organization finally said,
you know what, we got to get Roman Anthony up.
We should have been up already and they just took
off like a rocket ship when he was called up,
you know, just totally turn their season around now without him, Brian,
this looks like that Red Sox lineup that really couldn't
do much in those games leading up to that Yankee series,
losing low scoring games. They just lacked that sort of
sort of bite in my opinion, So the Red Sox
are a fade to me without Anthony going forward. I'm
actually thinking about the a's tonight a little bit. How
are you seeing this one Red Sox a's Well.
Speaker 3: I do want to point out I was at the
Aces game Las Vegas. Ace's women's basketball league last night.
Marco was nice enough to kick me for free. Nothing
a night off for free, That's my kind of deal.
But I saw that our oldest chapman pitched the ninth inning,
and he got to say and he struck out four
batters sold, Marco, I said, they must. I didn't watch
the game. I'm assuming somebody reached on a wild pitch
that they swung a mess on. But how often do
you see four strekeouts at one inning in Major League baseball?
I'm assuming that's what happened. I didn't get to see
the game. But if anybody's in the chat and they
know it's something different, let me know. But Chapman has
been awesome. Heats rated as the number one number one
relief pitcher in Major League Baseball the last fourteen days,
and Garret Whitlock's right with them at twelfth. So I
like the Red Sox bullpen right now, and we're getting
Garrett Crochet if I remember correctly off a bad outing. Yeah, yeah,
Crochet's numbers, He's two point six seventy RA, a three
point one three expected, one point oh eight whip. His
worst number on his entire stack cast page is his
barrel percentage, and that's still better than it's in the
sixty seven sixty fourth percentile, So it's better than just
about everybody. Boston comes in here is going against Morales
for the Athletics, who has been really good thus far.
But as he pitched enough innings for us to back him,
we've got Boston's about one close to one seventy favorite.
I would say, with a total of nine here. I
love Garrett Crocheted love the bullpen in this game. Morales
comes in with a one point five to nine ERA,
but a four point one to three expected. His web's
been very good at zero point ninety nine. He's only
throwing twenty eight and to a third innings, so nothing.
The only thing that has stabilized is fastball velocity in
the eighty ninth percentile in his extension of the seventeenth.
But most of his numbers thus far, his strike out
rates been great. But he can be hit hard, and
he has not been yet. I think that's going to
be coming up. I don't I don't think he knows
he's a fourth r inked prospect for the A's, so
he's got that background to him. I just think he's
been pitching over his head thus far. I would find
a way to play Boston here, either Boston team total
over or something in the first five inn It's just
I don't like. I don't like to lay these one
sixties to one seventies on the road team very often.
But I really think Crochie is going to have a
good game here. So let me take a look at
the team total for the for the A's here, team
totals three and a half, pretty much even on the over,
somewhat like that under with the Boston pitching staff the
way it's set up here. But this is a pretty
good hitters park, and as we always know that this
is normally from a part factor, it's twenty two percent
over a normal situation. The wind is blowing out. Uh
so maybe I passed, but I really like the situation
for this look for the Boston pitching staff. But maybe
I'll just pick another game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, sometimes it's good to not overthink things. You've got
a team that probably has a very good chance of
winning their division with the number four pitcher in all
of MLB on the mound for them, against a team
with a losing record who are twenty nine and forty
at home. So sometimes better not to overthink things than
just take Boston here. I think you know they could
win their division. Even if they don't, they're probably in
the playoffs. Garrett Kroschet I have him ranked number four
out of every pitcher in MLB, So you know, the
A's just can't win at home, and they haven't and
they do have the better lineup, no doubt about it.
But does that matter? I mean, I think Crochet can
shut them down. I don't have enough sample size to
really judge how he does against these batters, but in
thirteen at bats, against. He has a one thirty average
against something like that, so not enough sample size to
actually put that into the cap. But you've got a
team that's probably gonna win their division or at least
make the playoffs with the number four pitcher on the mound.
Morales has pitched well, but he only has four starts,
so regression perhaps not sure, but Bustin should win it
in the end. They're the better team, so don't overthink it.
Speaker 2: I think, for I don't think Boston is coming anywhere
close to any of this division. I'll be shocked if
they finished any They're above third, and it's because Roman
Anthony's out and this team without him, they're just very
average from the way their lineup is constructed. Now, I'm
not like the one thing that I kind of came
in and said, okay, can I make a case I
like Morales.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 2: I mean, the guy's throwing ninety nine. He's hitting corners like.
I don't know how long that last as a starter.
It's tough to do that as a starter in this
league without like another really good pitch. But he's been
fantastic and I think he could maybe have success against
this Red Sox lineup. I did kind of forget about
Crochet getting Bob last time out, so maybe not the
best spot to go against Crochet. If I was gonna
play it, it'd be A's plus one and a half
and and it entirely goes back to me not thinking
this Red Sox lineup is gonna be able to do
much without Roman Anthony and I also like Morales. I
think he can kind of hold them down. As far
as Chapman's concerned. Yes, four strikeouts last night Ililamaro Vargas
almost got hit by the pitch that he swung at
and it ended up behind him.
Speaker 1: No big deal.
Speaker 2: He came out, struck out the next two guys. That
is fifty consecutive hitters he's faced without giving up a hit.
Speaker 1: That is insane. So you're that's one thing I guess
is a little concerning.
Speaker 2: Usually you take the plus one and a half and
you're like, Okay, maybe I can backdoor this.
Speaker 1: Well, let me tell you something.
Speaker 2: If if it comes down to like a two run
lead and check apps in, I'm not very confident in
getting that run that might cover that plus one and
a half.
Speaker 1: So that's a you know, I guess it keeps me
off of it a little.
Speaker 2: The A's is TV said have not played well at home,
but this is still the type of team that I
don't mind against a pitcher like Crochet or even like
a Chatman, because they've got young players, good back to
ball skills. They're gonna swing it a lot, and it's
a ballpark that will give up the cheap homer, so
who knows, maybe you know the ball gets out. I
think Crochet gave up four home runs in his last start,
so maybe a one off, maybe not.
Speaker 1: I think the values with the A's I like as
plus one and a half. Brian, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to point out the difference between Anthony
and what they've got. Now, if you take a look
at the power rank on the season over at fangrafs RUSS,
the resources tremendous. Mister Martinez does a terrific job on
that site. But Roman Anthony on the season is ready
as the two hundred and eleventh best hitter. Now, a
lot of that came early on, struggled a little bit
early on, and then he's been much better since then.
But they've got Nate Eaton taking his spot, and he
ranks number four ninety eight. They do have Rob Reschneider
at two ninety four. He's already the faces off against lefties,
but he won't be starting today, So big, big differential there.
That Batman out of the lineup really does hurt him.
But I think we're going up against, at least in
my mind, a little bit overrated Athletics starting pitcher here.
We'll see how this goes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and you know, with the morales like tremendous,
I'll say this again, I think he's gonna end up
being a great reliever. I don't know how long they're
going to keep him as a starter, but guy throws
almost sixty percent bastballs. At some point a lineup's probably
gonna figure out that, like that's just how the big
leagues work. But I don't know if I have faith
in this Red Sox lineup doing it, because Roman Anthony
would be one of the best matchups in this lineup tonight. Lefty,
his his ops and his splits are much better against
right handed pitchers. You're gonna replace him with Nady and
that's a huge drop off right there for the Red Sox.
So aser passed for me. All right, let's let's continue on.
Let's see, Well, I'll throw it over to you, Brian.
Do you know do you have a game we haven't
talked about yet that you would use for the parlay
or just one you want to bring up in general.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got a few things I'm looking at regarding
team totals and first half and things like that, but
I want to try to keep it that people can
bet it anywhere they play. So let's take a look
at this this Arizona San Francisco game, and we're looking
at right now San Francisco with Web against Chris matt
for Arizona. Web's about a one seventy five to one
eighty favorite total seven and a half to the over.
And the Giants right now, when you take a look
at WRC plus for the last two weeks, they're leading
Major League Baseball. It won fifty two. Keep in mind
they did play in Colorado. That always helps. But is
this really an offense we trust at this point for
the entire season they were one of the lower rated offenses.
They've been hot lately, but I think if you're playing
San Francisco right now, you're playing them at the peak.
They're just coming off a big winning streak, they've lost
two games in a row. They're up plenty up plus
twenty six on run differential this year, but the Arizona
Diamondbacks are plus twenty five, so and they're only half
a game. Diamondbacks are half a game behind them in
the standings, So I know the reason. A major reason
why is because of Web being on the mild, and
no doubt about it. But take a look at what
Chris matt has done, and it's you know, he's a
guy that has been around. This is his sixth season,
but look at his ERA three point five to five
career ERA. In six seasons, he's thrown basically two hundred innings.
In that regard, he's not a bad pitcher. I mean
his fastball Veloss he is terrible. He throws. He's already
that throws eighty eight point nine miles per hour as
for Singer League average is ninety five. He's not going
to beat you in that. He's a crafty guy, and
I liked that his fastball Velos season the second percente
strekout rates bad. With rates bad, you would expect that.
But even though he's only throwing twenty one innings this year,
and he hasn't pitched a lot in the majors the
last three years. He's only got what forty one innings
the last three years. But this is a guy when
he gets the chance to pitch, he performs very well.
Avera Jackson velocity is very good, his barrel rates very good,
hard hit rates very good, ground ball percentage is very good.
That is a pitcher I'm looking to back. And I
talked about his forts Seamer. He only throws that ten
percent of the time, so he's got six pitches that
has changed. He throws thirty seven percent. This is the
guy who's gonna keep you off balanced, and I like that.
And he's going up against Logan web Nothing. I can't
say anything bad about Logan Webb. He comes in with
a three point one seventy RA three point sixty seven expected,
but he's beat his expected DRA all but one of
his seven seasons in Major League Baseball, so he he's
a crafty guy. Also. But why is San Francisco such
a huge favorite in this game. I just don't see it.
We've got two teams that are pretty equal and they're
going off the name of web very good pitcher, but
some of his numbers are not impressive. Basketball velocity twenty
thirty percentile, expected betting average thirty second, expected average eggs
of velocity thirty fifth, aren't hit rate forty fourth. He's
very good in walk grate, very good in gravel percentage,
and his extension is good. There's too much of a
differential here between these two teams. There. They're pretty much
equal on the season, although the Giants have played better lately.
But there's no way they should be at once seventy five,
one eighty favorite. I could get Arizona right now as
high as plus one sixty two average. You're getting about
a plus one sixty. I'm going to play that. We're
going to get a good playoff tonight unless TP pulls
one of his minus three hundred for his part. But
I'm gonna take Arizona here at plus one sixty, and
I think there's a plenty of value in that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: When I do my capting, I kind of scan the
games and see what pops out at me, and then
whatever pops out of me, I take a closer look.
And this one did pop out at me simply because
I have web ranked one spot below Crochet at number
five the number five pitcher in all of MLB, So
I did a little bit of a deeper dive his
His career stats against these batters are not as good
as I expected them to be. So then I looked
at Krismutt numbers like him. My numbers have him ranked
right there with Web, but obviously he's not Logan Web.
But he said four three legitimate starts this season, and
he performed quite well in all of them, and one
of them was against Milwaukee. One of them was against Colorado,
So those are teams that can kind of hit well.
Colorado at Colorado, Colorado can hit. So I looked at
his career numbers, like Brian says, he's got He's got
like a three three RA not bad, but a lot
of that was in relief work. So I really don't
know what to expect from him, but I know Logan
Web is really good. So then I compare the two teams.
This is the closest matchup I have of of of
the whole slate today. I got these two teams neck
and neck, even though Web is the best picture in NLP.
So I agree with Brian, the Giants should not be
this big of a favorite. Here will I bet the Diamondbacks.
I'm not sure about that. Webb has amazing command, He's
only walking eighteen percent of the guys he's striking out.
I really wanted to bet the Giants here, but I
can't because my numbers tell me that the Diamondbacks have
a very very good chance of upsetting them today. But
I do not have the testicular fortitude to put my
money on it, so I will not bet this.
Speaker 1: Arizona is the best team that's going to miss the playoffs.
It's very unfortunate.
Speaker 2: They were completely let down by pitching injury, specifically bullpen.
So this was a bullpen that was supposed to have
Justin Martinez AJ puck and it just blew up early.
And the reason I'm bringing that up here is like
the lineup is still just as good as it's all.
I still, I still truly believe that this lineup is
just as good as it was when it had Josh
Naylor and Eugenio SoRs. You talk about like Brian talked
about player replacement when we talked about the Red Sox
a minute ago. The guys that have come into the
lineup been taking the places of Josh Naylor and Eugenio
scores are not like that much worse in terms of
like production. Uh, they're They're a team that's got a
very deep sort of collection of players. You know, with
the guys down at Reno there, there's they like they
have guys that sort.
Speaker 1: Of belong in in a big league lineup.
Speaker 2: And so again like they're this lineup is great, tons
of team speed, they know how to score runs. You know,
TV you talked about some of their splits against the Giants.
They've seen Web a ton.
Speaker 1: So if there was ever going to be a team
that was going to get to Logan Web, it's probably
Arizona because they've seen him plenty. They've had success against him.
The Chrisler is his nickname.
Speaker 2: By the way, at least on the Lehigh Valley Iron
Pigs broadcast earlier this year, when Chris Matt was in
the organization, they called him the Krizzler.
Speaker 1: That's what they called them all year. They really wanted
to get that going.
Speaker 2: I saw them posted on social media a couple times,
and then he gets traded.
Speaker 1: That's what's happened to him his whole career.
Speaker 2: Neville chrisn at thirty years old, he's been in like
probably eight different organizations.
Speaker 1: He's just a professional. He's a veteran.
Speaker 2: He's going to go out and give you a professional effort,
throw six or seven pitches, like you know, I don't
know that Arizona really needs him to get through more
than five innings.
Speaker 1: They don't have a great bullpend. But here's the thing,
Like they're not getting priced off of having good pitching.
Speaker 2: So if you can get a couple of good innings
out of Chris Matt which he's he's actually been able
to do for them, you're gonna be in a great
position to win a game, and, as Brian said, have
a great great price in doing so.
Speaker 1: I like the plus one and a half here, I'm hoping.
Speaker 2: I'm wondering if the market says, oh, it's logan web,
the Giants have to win. You know what we talked
about that last week, the whole, the whole sort of
you know concept that this is a game the Giants
must win. If that pushes this up another twenty cents
and I can get plus.
Speaker 1: One and a half and in the plus in the
minus one thirty range, that's something I'd be willing to
maybe throw all my client card.
Speaker 2: I really think Saturday night was a nail on the
coffin for the Giants. They had a two nothing lead
going into the ninth inning. They blew that game and
sort of blew their wind streak in the process.
Speaker 1: They lose yesterday.
Speaker 2: I woultn't be surprised if that's sort of the unofficial
end of the Giants season, just because it took so
much effort to get to that point and then you
lose in the fashion they did on Saturday, you come
out and lose yesterday. I just think that the hill
is too you know, too much of an uphill climb
from this point forward. Arizona's kind of been out of
it for a few, like a month now, even though
they are actually only what like a half game worse
than the Giants.
Speaker 1: I feel like there's this the mindset has been, We've
been out of it.
Speaker 2: I saw Jordan Lawler getting some playing time over the weekend,
some of the younger guys getting up in there. I'm
with you, Brian, diamondbacks make a lot of sense, and
plus one and a half if it comes down ten
to fifteen cents is something.
Speaker 1: That might be on my card. So yeah, I like
Arizona in the spot.
Speaker 3: Maybe you put two bets on it. You take the
plus one and a half of the minus one forty
and then you play them on the line at plus
one sixty and set yourself up pretty well in that
could have a huge pay. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, and from a price standpoint, there's no question
Diamondbacks plus one sixty there's crazy.
Speaker 1: That's crazy. There's still a much And someone in the
chat says the Diamondbacks are the Rockies. No, not even close.
That is a horrible comparison.
Speaker 2: Just because they don't have pitching does not make them
even close to the Rockies. This is still a team
that's like top five in the league WRC plus they're
pitching is the reason they won't be a playoff team.
But but they're still with this lineup, a five hundred
team or better. Yeah, I got to disagree with that comment.
They're much better, much better than the ROI all right,
let's uh, a couple of people, let's talk about the Rockies.
I guess a couple of people brought Actually, TV.
Speaker 1: Do you have a game you want to propose? We
need a park from you.
Speaker 4: It's gonna be something we already covered, so we can
do the Rockies and I'll just throw it in at
the end.
Speaker 3: Perfect.
Speaker 2: Let's let's talk about the Rockies a little bit. That
was a scene in Baltimore on Saturday night. Yamamoto won
out away from a from a no hit and then
they end up losing the game.
Speaker 1: Why can am I not seeing it? Do we have
a line for this one? Right?
Speaker 3: Do? Just haven't decided who are they're gonna pitch? But
I will say, you know people in this industry, and
everybody's just a common sense that you bit about your
bad beats. Well, I had Baltimore in that game eight
and two thirds innings of no hit ball and I won.
Speaker 1: So you want to hear.
Speaker 3: Anything from me about talking about bad beats? That was
the gift that just kept on giving the entire weekend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 2: All right, Well to this, we'll do a quick one
here just to get another game in Rockies Dodgers general thoughts.
Brian will start with you go to TV and I'll
finish it off, and then we'll let TV close the
parlay out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're looking at the Dodgers. People that do have
lines up in the three ten, three twenty range total
of nine to the slightly to the over. Dolander is
going for Colorado. That's all I'll say on it, because
I don't bet on anything without knowing who the pitchers are.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't know who the pitchers are. But we
know that both of these teams have horrible bullpens, and
we know the Dodgers probably will be able to hit
Chase Dolander and the Rockies. The Rockies have a top
ten lineup according to my rankings. I know they're not
a top ten lineup, but in current form they're hitting
pretty well. Maybe that's because they just came off a
home series where the air is like the moon and
it's a monkey ballpark, but they do have the ability
need to hit poor pitching, and the Dodgers will serve up,
you know, a good amount of poor pitching if they're
gonna make this a bullpen game. Man, man, they look
bad at bullpen.
Speaker 1: I I thought.
Speaker 4: I thought Tanner Scott would be like the saves leader
this year. I thought Blake trying him would would be
the holds leader. These guys are just underperforming. They look
like garbage. I would look at an over in this
one once the line comes out, if I'm gonna do
anything certainly would not take minus three twenty with the
Dodgers when they're having a bullpen game, it's probably gonna
be like a ten to twelve kind of game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm reading that that.
Speaker 2: Dave Roberts said that it was gonna be Tyler Glass now,
which is interesting to me considering he's coming off of
an injury and why no, I guess I guess he
That's that's what Dave Roberts in one of his press
conference over the weekend said, Tyler Glass I would start
against the Rockies at some point. So the way it's
set up, it's she and tomorrow it's Snell on Wednesday,
So like it looks like this would be the spot
to do.
Speaker 1: What the problem is, doesn't he have it?
Speaker 2: Isn't he coming off of an oblique Why would you
even throw him out there?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: A ton of sense.
Speaker 3: He was pushed back. He was supposed to pitch a
couple of days ago. And I don't like I don't
like guys who are not in their regular routine. Brandon
has talked about this overall in the Scotting days. If
guys go every five or six days and they're not
going that five or six day. That's not a guy
I'm looking to back, and so.
Speaker 2: Yeah it.
Speaker 3: He's obviously a very good picture, but he's hurt all
the time. And that's the problem with this entire entire situation.
Other than Yellamoto, everybody else has been in and out
of the lineup all season long. For the Dodgers. Luckily
they got a good good starters and the miners that
they can bring these guys in. But the Dodgers don't
need to win. They've shown them that they don't need
care if they win the division and not. San Diego
is the same bit. It's a it's at this point
my general thoughts, are you bat against balth these seams,
the Padres and the Dodgers, because obviously they don't seem
to think that they can win with the wild cards.
So yeah, it's hold your nose, maybe find a way
to play Colorado.
Speaker 4: Hohodell knows my experience with talking to some of these pictures. Man,
they're like scared children in a haunted house when they
when you throw them off their schedule. You have some
really steady rocks, you know, like the grom he's like
a steady he's got his head together, you know, there's
some pictures who are they have their stuff together and
they don't get thrown off no matter what you do.
But most of them are like superstitious, scared little girls
when you throw them off their schedule. They really are. Yeah,
it's funny.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you one injury that is a big red
flag and you never you never want to see for
if you're if you're looking at like a player, and
this is actually the injury Roman Anthony's dealing with right
now is an oblique injury. Because they're they linger, They
come and go. A lot of times you see guys
with oblique injuries. They'll come back from it. They'll think
they're fine, they move wrong a little bit, and suddenly
it's back, they're back on the aisle.
Speaker 1: It's it's quit.
Speaker 2: Probably right up there with the worst injuries a baseball
player could have, because of course you're hitting your the
obliques are on your side, so it's like the torque
to get in your swing. For pitchers, everything's about balance
and mechanics. That throws off your mechanics. So that's the
injury Tyler Glass I was dealing with. That doesn't leave
a warm, fuzzy feeling for me. With a three dollars favorite.
I'm looking at DraftKings right now. They're over nine. Here
is is basically minus one twenty.
Speaker 1: I kind of like that.
Speaker 4: Nice.
Speaker 1: They're gonna hit Dollander. Yeah, I don't think Donander is
gonna shut the Dodgers down.
Speaker 2: And then if it, let's say it goes poorly for
Glasstout or it's an injury type thing where he's not
out there long, you're going to have all the depth
Dodgers' bullpen arms trying to sort of mop up here.
And it's probably a game where they're going to tell
their team, hey, go out and score ten so we
can win this one eleven to six and not have
to burn our leverage arms because they kind of start
needed to win win games.
Speaker 1: They haven't played well at all. So I kind of
like the over go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: I just want to point out if that Tokyo Brandon's
favorite player, Max Munsey is supposed to come back off
the aisle today, and that gives them a huge power
advantage that they just don't have with his replacements.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and yet the Dodgers, let's not forget, they're forty
five and twenty six at home despite having a terrible
manager and a terrible bullpen. The Rockies are seventeen and
fifty one on the road, so we can't forget that.
But if you look at first games of series, I
don't have the numbers, but if you look at the
first game of the series, I would imagine most of
the Rockies wins came in the first game of the
series when someone is just you know, doesn't care and
get the game away and then wins the other two backs.
I imagine, but I'm not I don't have the data.
Speaker 2: Tommy Edmund was playing for OKC over the week last
week too, so so who knows. Maybe you see him
out there as well. But yeah, Munsey would be a
nice addition. And I don't think Munsey played yesterday, which
bitch tells me he's likely rejoining the team. So you
probably see Max Onnesi in the lineup here. All right, TV,
who do you like for the parlay? Let's close this out?
Speaker 4: Yeah, if I can use the team total, I want
to use the Cubs under four and a half, and
I'm seeing that at minus one p fifteen. I think Elder,
although I don't like him that much, He's dominated these
Cubs and I think he'll do it again today, going
against what Brian said, But uh yeah, I like the
Cubs under four and a half for my legs, So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, it's worth it's worth pointing out
that like this, Cub's offense has not really fully clicked
in a way.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, yeah, you could get the.
Speaker 2: Outburst, but if you don't, a lot of their games
have been you know, when they score three runs against
the Nationals yesterday, right like they just it's it's not
like they've been.
Speaker 1: A run scoring machine. So still, I'm not gonna not
gonna try to argue with you on that.
Speaker 3: This I got.
Speaker 1: This might be a record for it. This might be
our our biggest parlay odds yet. I actually think we are.
We're looking at plus eight seventy seven, so we are
taking a shot to start the week. That's gonna be
Royal's money line, Diamondbacks money line Cubs team total under
four and a half.
Speaker 2: So my leg is gonna be the Royals on the
money line. Bryan Leonard's going Diamondbacks on the money line.
Nice plus price there Tokyo. Brandon says, Cubs under four
and a half. That's team total under four and a
half and.
Speaker 1: That's plus eight seventy seven, So nice, I mean, this
would be great for us, would set us up nicely
going forward if we can hit this one today. TV.
You got you want to do the quick promo before
we get out of here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a five percent play up and I
have several KBO plays up. They are all half price,
and I'm sure these two gentlemen will be putting something up.
I have a free play up too, So go to
wager talk dot com sometime today and see what we
are all offering us three. We generally put a lot
of free plays up, so at least go and check
that out.
Speaker 1: Have a great day, yup, I'll I'll actually have a
special on my all Access.
Speaker 2: That's going to be up before the end of today.
They're working on like a code for it, so take
a look at that. Check out Brian's page to see
what he has going, and we'll be back here tomorrow
morning nine am.
Speaker 1: More total bases. We'll see you guys. Then, have a
good day everyone,