Speaker 1: Happy Saturday.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, college football is finally here. I know
it was here last week, but this is like Christmas
Morning here for the wager Talk family.
Speaker 1: This is last call. I am Kelly Sewart and I'm
gonna be joining you every single.
Speaker 2: Saturday until the college football playoff and the National Championship.
So you guys get ready. I hope you got your
notepads ready. I got my list. I'm gonna get some
steam report from VR. We're gonna talk to Ross Benjamin
from wager Talk dot Com, as well as Art this
Caesar joining us from the Westgate super Book to give
us a look behind the counter. We're gonna go to
him first.
Speaker 1: What is going on?
Speaker 3: My man?
Speaker 1: You text me yesterday said hey, I'm gonna be on
last calall. I was like, you are.
Speaker 2: I thought you were gonna be so busy with your
new show with Joe and the Press. So I'm elated
to have.
Speaker 4: You here Kelly every Saturday. You know, this is what
we do. And this is a great weekend, opening weekend.
I know we've had week zero and Thursday and Friday,
but this is a great day. The book has a
lot of energy, there's a lot of great games, so
I'm excited to talk about all these games.
Speaker 2: How is the buzz there at the Westgate super Book.
It is only eight am Pacific. There are people starting
to line up, get their bets.
Speaker 1: In, get their seats. Is anybody drinking beer yet?
Speaker 4: People are starting to line up. You know, we open
the counter an hour early. Obviously the app is open
a lot earlier than that. And yeah, I mean you
just the football energy in the football buzz is always
really great.
Speaker 5: It's great.
Speaker 4: We can even feel the energy in the back room,
so that's always a good thing.
Speaker 1: That's awesome.
Speaker 2: I felt the energy this morning when I saw the
final count two hundred and sixteen thousand dollars to first
place for that Westgate Inaugural College Football Contest. I am
ready to run through a brick wall. Arn't this eason.
I'm just gonna let you go. I want you to
talk about some of your biggest needs here for the
morning slate, that we'll get into some of the afternoon
games and maybe even hit those couple of games for Sunday.
Speaker 5: Absolutely, let's just talk.
Speaker 4: Start in the morning Syracuse, Tennessee, which is one of
the Markey morning games that seemed really good.
Speaker 5: Two way they've.
Speaker 4: Laid the thirteen and a half of Tennessee. They've taken
the fourteen with Syracuse. We're now fourteen Tennessee. But we've
kind of been going back and forth on that fau Maryland.
We saw really sharp over money at fifty seven and
a half, got all the way up to sixty one
and a half.
Speaker 5: We've seen a little bit of a.
Speaker 4: Buyback on that under We are now sixty and a half.
This is a real interesting one nine to forty five
Vegas kickoff time. Toledo and Kentucky. It's been nothing but
Kentucky money. They laid seven and a half, they laid eight,
they laid nine, got all the way up to ten.
We saw a little bit of buyback on Toledo, but
we're still gonna need Toledo. We are very much buried
to the Kentucky side. The Northwestern tu lane games split
going from five to six, five to six, kind of
back and forth.
Speaker 5: Here's another big need for us.
Speaker 4: We're gonna need Southern miss They laid twelve, they laid thirteen,
they laid fourteen with Mississippi State. We're now fourteen and
a half. A little bit of under money came in
as well on sixty one. But I would say the
big needs of the morning would be that Southern Miss game,
like I mentioned, and we're really gonna need yeah, I
mean we're we're probably gonna need Texas if we want
to get in Ohio State, if we want to get
into that game. Obviously, the early money has come in
on Texas. We opened that game three, got all the
way down to one, now back to one and a half.
And don't forget we're dealing minus one oh five sides
on that game. We always do one oh nine now
on the college but now we're doing one oh five
on the real marquee games. That int issue. We're gonna
get that treatment this morning. So that's some of the
early like nine ninety five AM kicks for Vegas.
Speaker 2: All right, I was gonna save this question for VR,
but since you brought it up, minus one oh five
they're at the West Gate. Can you tell me what
your money line is on Ohio State and whether it's
smarter to lay minus one and a half minus one
oh five. I'm guessing you guys are probably minus one twenty.
I apologize if you do not have my odds logics
up at the moment.
Speaker 4: Yeah we are, Kelly, But like you said, when we
were one, right, when we were one minus one oh five,
money line was you know, minus one fifteen. So are
you gonna take Texas plus one minus one oh five
or are you gonna take minus one oh five on the
money line. So there was a lot of that where
people were trying to figure that out. But now that
we have moved to the one and a half, we
are minus one twenty on Ohio State on the money line.
So you know when we deal these one oh fives
on these market games and they're gonna be tight spreads
usually anyway, on those games you see pretty good two
way action. I mean, despite all the early Texas money,
like I said, there was a little bit of a
buyback on Ohio State this morning. And don't get me wrong,
I think with games like that too, you're gonna see
a lot more of the kind of money that might
come in on in game stuff. You'll see that people
want to see the game kickoff, maybe see a quarter,
maybe see a couple of drives, So we see a
lot of money too get in the pool on those
in games.
Speaker 1: Awesome.
Speaker 2: Let's move along to some of those three PM Eastern
noon Pacific games.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean not a ton with this slate. Temple
UMass has been an interesting game. We've seen a lot
of UMAs money all week and since the lines have
been open three and a half, three, two and a half,
we're now two.
Speaker 5: We'll need Temple in the game. Bama, FSU. I mean
we were.
Speaker 4: Thirteen very early on, got to thirteen and a half quick,
then got to fourteen.
Speaker 5: That seemed pretty good. Two way.
Speaker 4: I mentioned this too earlier in the week with Joe
and Prez that Bama. Because they're in that range of like, uh,
you know, minus five to fifty minus six dollars favorite,
they're gonna be very popular in all moneyline parlays. You're
gonna see a ton of eight, ten and twelve team
moneyline parlays on all the favorites. So it's like, we
just need one of those big dogs to come in
and maybe Fsu is that one. I don't think it's
gonna happen, but it would be good to kill a
lot of those moneyline parlays and a lot of money
on that Penn State under that was fifty nine and
a half. We're now fifty five, and there was a
little bit of buye on Pennza. You know, Penn State
was forty four this morning. I think we're forty three
on that. So a little bit of money on the
dog there. But that middle slate is not as good
as let's say, the later slate or the early slate.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about that later slate.
Speaker 2: And then of course I want to hit some Sunday
games and get your best bet before we get you.
Speaker 1: Out of here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this is where you really are starting
to see some money UTSA at A and M. This
has been really one side of UTSA has seen all
the money at twenty four and a half and twenty four.
We're now A and M twenty three. Will need A
and M in the game. Rice at Louisiana that was
as high as fourteen. They took the fourteen with Rice,
they took the thirteen. We're now eleven on Louisiana at home.
We will need them in the game. Uva and Coastal
is interesting. Uva, you know saw money early which moved
the line all the way up to thirteen and a half.
Speaker 5: There's been a.
Speaker 4: Little nibbleback now on Coastal at the thirteen and a
half still probably.
Speaker 5: Will need Coastal in the game. Now a few clemps
the game.
Speaker 4: Early sharp money came in on Clemson at three, and
when we were at four, we took some sharp money
on LSU at four.
Speaker 5: But we're now four and a half.
Speaker 4: So the Clemson money has kind of really overdone that
other move. Like we didn't we saw the sharp money
in you know, sides, but we said, hey, we got
to follow the market on this too.
Speaker 5: That has seen good money line.
Speaker 4: Action on LSU because we were a little bit higher
because we were getting hit on Clemson. Also, that's a
minus one oh five game, so we'll see pretty good
action on that.
Speaker 5: But right now we'll probably.
Speaker 4: Need LSU because just the overwhelming early money on Clemson
has kind of just you know, moved that to where
we'll need LSU in the game.
Speaker 2: All right, perfect, let's hit those Sunday games because I
am on Virginia Tech.
Speaker 1: I got my.
Speaker 2: Odds Logic screen open this morning, and then we'll get
to Jack's question. By the way, if you guys have
a question, drop it in the chat. Tell us what
your best bet is for today. Tell us you love
the show.
Speaker 1: Tell us at the show.
Speaker 2: Just drop a art So I opened up my Odds
Logic excreen this morning and I said, oh my god,
South Carolina Virginia Tech down to seven.
Speaker 1: Now what do I do? Nothing? I got a nice
number in pocket. But these line moves.
Speaker 2: We saw it last night with Baylor, We've seen it
with a couple of other games so far.
Speaker 1: We saw it with the NFL preseason have been dead wrong.
Speaker 2: I'm a little nervous here that even though I have
a good number in pocket with Virginia Tech, you guys
might be cheering for Carolina.
Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, as we look at it now, we
could you know we will be.
Speaker 4: And obviously that's the earlier of the two Sunday games.
Obviously the Miami Notre Dame game will carry the day,
but with all the early Virginia Tech money, at some.
Speaker 5: Point, you know, it's funny too because it's seven and
not a lot of people tease college football. But there
might be some teasers. There might be. There might be
some six.
Speaker 4: Seven point teasers in that range, probably more six point teasers.
Once again, it's not like the NFL where the teasers
really come in heavy day game, but you could see
maybe some things that get tied to either of those
Sunday games or the Monday game where they kind of
treat this like an NFL week where you have multiple
days to bet.
Speaker 5: You could see some of that.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about that Notre Dame Miami game. Two
and a half. It's what I laid earlier in the week, saw.
Speaker 2: Three, Saw three to a half at some shops. Did
you guys get to three and a half at the Westgate?
Looks like right now, you guys are sitting there steady
at three.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're three. And you know, like you said, it's
been bouncing back and forth. And I always say, quote unquote,
maybe there's no key numbers in college football like the NFL,
but when you're on football numbers three and seven, you're
gonna go back and forth. You're gonna be two and
a half, you're gonna be three. We have not pushed
to three and a half yet that could still happen.
I think, as I said, with a lot of things
that would be tied to Sunday, I think a lot
of things are gonna run into that Miami Notre Dame game.
It's a night game, it's a big game. The big
thing with that game is the way the total dropped.
We opened fifty four and a half, he got his
OOS forty nine, and now we went back up to fifty.
Speaker 5: You've seen a little bit of a buyback on the
over all.
Speaker 2: Right, let's answer Jack's question. He wanted to know some
of these biggest needs as far as.
Speaker 1: Who you're gonna need to lose. Right, you mentioned eight, ten,
twelve leg moneyline parlays. Who are the three to four
you think are gonna be the most popular.
Speaker 5: Just like the most popular bets that would come in today.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, I I think when you look
at those main games, those main games will see.
Speaker 5: Pretty good two way action for the most part.
Speaker 4: You know, it's always the games that you don't expect,
like even like a late late game. Maybe we didn't
talk about Cal at Oregon State, like we're gonna need
Oregon State in that game. That's now Cal is a favorite.
Cal's now a one point favorite. We saw a really
respected guy take Cal plus one and a half. So
we're looking at now as Cal is the favorite at
minus one, we're gonna need Oregon State in that game.
Another game that I didn't really touch on that was
a super early game is the Purdue game. Probably gonna
need Purdue in the game.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 4: It's just it's never the games that you think. It's
not like, oh, the Texas Ohio State game will carry
the day because for the most part, unless someone comes
in because those are higher limit games and maybe drops
a nice five figure bet, it's most of the smaller
games that you see real big line movements on. I
mentioned the Southern Miss game right now. That's our biggest need.
We need Southern Miss against Mississippi State right now as
we talk, that's our biggest need.
Speaker 1: That's just wild.
Speaker 2: The thing on Week one, Gog Southern Miss is the
super Book unit is not gonna be very happy.
Speaker 1: I know he is. At the Purdue ball State game.
He told me he bet Ball State. I don't know.
It sounds like that. You guys are gonna need for
du all right.
Speaker 2: I always appreciate you coming on Saturday mornings giving us
your time that look behind the counter of the west
Gate super Book. Before we get you out of here,
we of course need that best bet.
Speaker 4: I have to pick the best game of the day,
and I'm gonna go with Ohio State. I just I'm
taking them on the money line. I get that Texas
is really good. I think Ohio State's really good. They
lost a lot of stuff. Ohio State lost coordinators for
Ohio State's at home. I feel like it's a cheap price.
I feel like three was the right number, and now
I'm not laying three. I'm laying like minus one fifteen,
minus one twenty on the money line.
Speaker 5: So give me Ohio State.
Speaker 1: I think they win the game, all right, Art Sezer,
that just made my day.
Speaker 2: Make sure you guys give him a follow at art
Dice twenty one over there on X. You guys can
also catch him with Joe Vernieri and the pres on
the Best Betting Show Ever. Here and I've been muted
this whole time? Where's my producer? Louis yelling at me
in the comments section? I got dogs squeaking in the
background a toy, so I thought i'd mute myself. Art,
you are the best. You guys can catch him on
the Best Betting Show Ever with the Prez and Joe Vernier.
You can also find him behind the counter.
Speaker 1: They're in the risk room at the Westgates Superbook Art
Dice twenty one on X.
Speaker 2: Have a great day. Good luck to you, Art, we
all need it. Awesome some opening weekend. Appreciate you taking
the time. Let's get into it. We'll get right over
to VR, Yanni the Greek as you guys know him,
get him right here in the mix. Ross the Boss,
Benjamin waiting in the wings as well. VR bringing you
the Steam report right here on the Wager Talking YouTube
channel right after last call. We're taking you guys up
until kickoff. If you guys have questions for our handicappers,
let us know, drop it in the check, give us
your best bet.
Speaker 1: VR. Tell everybody what they can expect on the steam room.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just nonstop's actions come in since early this morning, Cal,
I've been on this desk since about five am. I
bet soccer in different countries. I bet college football, I
bet props, I bet first quarters. I bet more extra
games than you could ever imagine, and a lot of
that live stuff comes in. For example, I bet this
morning twenty plus extra game signs totals. I think I
released maybe six or seven two subscribers. Multiple groups got in,
and I thought there was still some value because those
lines move so significantly. But when you're in the steam room,
you're getting that information in real time. So I urge everyone,
especially the handicappers to come in with your liens all
ready to go, and we will be going through the
college board confirming signs and totals for you as information
comes in. And yeah, I'm there to answer all your questions.
That goes off. As soon as Ohio Stayton Texas kick
we're ready to go. We'll be live and going probably
at least you know, sixty ninety minutes maybe two hours,
cover as much as we can, and next week it'll
be on Sundays leading into NFL Kickoff.
Speaker 2: That's awesome, guys, Free steamroom today, wt dot buzz backslash
s R.
Speaker 1: Like Steamroom eight three zero.
Speaker 2: Everybody is welcome to join here on the wager Talk
YouTube channel VR.
Speaker 1: You brought us some steam this week on bet.
Speaker 2: On it, we also broke down every single college football
matchup from top twenty five perspective. But I want to
revisit that Ohio State Texas game, I asked Arc. He
said that they are minus one and a half minus
one oh five. They're at the West Gate. I also
have a book that is minus one and a half
minus one oh five or minus one twenty on the
money line. Can you give me a little bit of advice.
Some of those at home may have the same question,
what are your thoughts on which I.
Speaker 1: Should be laying? I do like the Buckeyes.
Speaker 2: I know you're on the opposite side, but if you
were sitting in my shoes, how would you bet this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it lay the one and a half minus one
oh five with Ohio State, even.
Speaker 5: With the low total.
Speaker 3: Definitely a better bet than laying that money line right now.
I know it makes you feel a little more comfortable
thinking if it lands on one, I'd cash my ticket
with the money line. I'd lose it with the minus
one and a half, But long term, that minus one
oh five is the key. Only having to lay that
minus one oh five compared them out minus one twenty. Now,
if you were only going to be placed in one
bet for the rest of your life and never going
to be betting again, then the number doesn't matter getting
the best of it. What you want to do is
cash a ticket. So obviously you'd be looking to lay
pick them at minus one twenty just in case it
does land one. But if you're going to be betting tomorrow,
next week, next month, the rest of the college football season,
then your goals to place the most advantageous bets and
laying minus one h five at one and a half
would be a much better bet than having to lay
that money line where it sits right now. And I'm
on speaking at the Texas side, Kel, I'll be honest
with you. I moved Texas at plus three back in
the summer for the groups I moved with work with,
but I didn't release that to subscribers. I didn't piggyback
that make it like a premium play, just because it
was a little bit too early and it was sitting
on a key number, so I knew they were going
to get the best of the key number if they
didn't think it was going to go higher. And I
wanted to see, is this just a case where they're
going to look to middle it? Because if you could
get a pick them and a plus three in a
game where the totals being steamed under low scoring game,
you know, high profile matchup, it isn't the worst position
to be in. I didn't get involved, like I said,
as a premium but I was hearing nothing but Texas Texas,
Texas Texas, sharp money Texas Texas Texas. But just like
the Super Bowl, where the books are one sided after
one week, once you get into the game day, it
comes out to a lot more balanced action because when
you have two teams like this number one A, one B,
you're gonna get opinions on both sides. And I think
it's not going to be as one sided as it
was days ago. So I think a little more balanced
for the books on this game than we expected. And yeah,
I'm on Texas because of the sharps that are on
them as well. But again, caution fading Ohio State, especially
at home.
Speaker 2: All right, Aaron, I hear it. I hear that cell
phone buzzing. I know you got plays coming in VR.
So give everybody a little taste of what they can
expect to get in the steam room today. I'm curious
to see what has moved since we did bat on
a Thursday, excuse me, Wednesday morning till now?
Speaker 1: Was there some buyback? Is there some disagreements? Talk to me.
Speaker 3: The biggest stuff is, here's what I'm seeing that's happen
in Saturday, cal Most of the bets on the main
board are happening earlier in the week and throughout the week.
Speaker 5: Come game day.
Speaker 3: It's like you said, doing some of those buybacks or
some of those middles where some information changes and you
want to limit your risk.
Speaker 1: On a side.
Speaker 3: But the majority of action coming in today is all
on the extra games, on the derivatives like first quarter,
first half, and a lot of props since we covered
a lot of the main games. Here's some of the
stuff that came in today real quickly. I know everybody's
looking at that. Texas Ohio State steamed the prop under
twenty eight and a half under twenty eight and a half,
arch manning rushing yards under twenty eight and a half
and then in Fau Maryland under fifty nine and a
half receiving yards for Baroke far Okay for Farrouke under
fifty nine and a half receiving yards and the Mississippi
State Southern miss under three and a half total receptions
for Treo Saydan Saydan s e y Dov. I think
something like that. You guys probably know who exactly what
I'm talking about. Now, here's some of those derivatives that
I'm talking about. Northwestern plus a half first quarter, Northwestern
plus a half first quarter, and then a team total
that got steamed everywhere. New Mexico team total over seven
over seven New Mexico team total. And here's some of
those extra games real quickly, Arizona State minus twenty eight,
North Texas minus twenty four and a half, West Virginia
minus thirty eight, Furman plus two and a half, Georgetown
had a pick them over fifty seven and fifty eight,
Dukine Pittsburgh, Iowa State minus fourteen and a half, under
fifty five and a half, Chattanooga under fifty two and
a half, Maine Liberty over forty six and a half,
South Dakota, Iowa State under fifty one and a half,
Holy Cross, Northern Illinois, and Connecticut minus twenty seven and
a half. I know that's a lot of information. I
know that's a lot of the extra board stuff, but
I'm telling you there's a ton of value on those.
Speaking of the main board, we touched on count and
Oregon State earlier in the week. I thought that the
wrong team was favored. We're starting to see that now
Cal is going the favorite. That's a lot of sharp
money that's been betting Cal, a ton of public money
on the Oregon State side. That's the only reason we
haven't seen a huge, huge shift. But today where it's
game day and you're starting to see more sharp money
on cal They have more or less no choice. But
that's one of those where the public's on one side,
the wise guys are on the other. And the other
thing that sticks out a lot is three teams being
bet the heaviest that I'm seeing Michigan, Michigan, Alabama, Oregon State, Michigan, Alabama,
Oregon State. Those three are the most one sided. It
was Texas until today starting to see more how state
money come in as we approach kickoff. But Michigan, Alabama,
Oregon State as one sided as you're possibly gonna get
in college football.
Speaker 2: Awesome, awesome stuff at Greek Gambler on your social channels,
at Great Gambler seven of course on TikTok vr.
Speaker 1: Anything you'd like to leave our audience with.
Speaker 2: I know you've got to get prepped for the steam
room here and thirty eight minutes he's gonna be going
live here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Let's hear what else you got for this audience.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the dog that they're all betting, the one dog
that everybody I'm even seeing moneyline in this kind of
big dog. You usually don't see it. Toledo, Why they
bet Toledo. Why they bet in Toledo, like they know Tomors,
like Toledo's gonna win this game out right, we bet
over first half, over in the first half what we're on,
But they like Toledo in that one. And again it's
only week one. I know there's a high profile game,
but patients, patients, patients.
Speaker 5: A lot of these.
Speaker 3: Lines have been up for a while. We got a
long season in college football. Take your time, long season ahead,
do some damage and go over to wage talk dot
com Free picks page. I always put a premium on there,
not a free pick, a premium free pick, So head
on over to wagetalk dot com. Best the luck the
college football season. Kelly, thanks for having me on bet
on It again this year, and wish you guys all
do damage this weekend.
Speaker 2: If you guys missed it, we filmed a college football
preview show as well as college football Week one episode
of bet on It's up live right now on the
wager Talk YouTube channel. Vr is gonna join us every
single Saturday, bright and early. I appreciate you. Make sure
you guys are giving him a follow again. Go over
to the wager Talk YouTube channel right after the show
and get his.
Speaker 1: Steam room for free. Looks like Ross Benjamin is.
Speaker 2: Waiting in the wings to answer all of your college
football questions. So if you guys have a question about
a game, we're gonna bring him in now. If there's
no comments, we're getting out of here. I've got college
football to watch. I'm excited, Russ.
Speaker 1: What do you gotta go to? Mind?
Speaker 2: You your greens here? Looks like Ohio State Texas.
Speaker 6: I mean the game everybody's talking about, right, but the
game I'm not crazy about. You know. I think there's
too much uncertainty on both sides, on both sides at
the table for me to make a definitive bet on
that game. You know, I don't know, Kelly. I'm not
sold on arch Manning yet. You know, I think he's
getting a lot of hype. From what I saw on
his brief appearances with Texas, He's not been overwhelming to me,
So I think I have a little bit of a
feeling that he might not be as good or how
could I put it. He's going to be good, but
maybe not up to the hype that he came in with.
Speaker 1: Russ, you nailed it. This is what I've been saying
on every single show this week.
Speaker 2: Week one to me is fading some narratives and fading
some hype. I truly believe if Arch Manning was as
good as advertised, he would have been playing over Quinn
Yewers last year. Bottom line, Steve Sarkisian wants that national championship.
He wants to get it off his back. He went
with the better quarterback last year. So we're gonna see
what Arch is made of. I completely agree with you.
Speaker 1: Listen.
Speaker 2: And Texas has been back my entire life. When they
were in the Big twelve, it's all we heard, Look
how loaded this team is.
Speaker 1: Okay, time to show me how loaded you really are.
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, And you know the other part of the
equation is betting against Ohio State at the shoe.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: I just to me, there's better value on the board.
Not better games, but better value on the board.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go through some of that better value.
Speaker 2: I know right now Bill's commenting here about Clemson LSU.
You have a five percent play up on that game.
Talk about that over at wager talk dot com. And
let's get into some of these other games that you
think have better value.
Speaker 6: You have a five percent best bet on this game.
I got the winning side. This game goes at seven
thirty tonight on ABC, So watch and win.
Speaker 5: Folks.
Speaker 6: In my college football over the last two years, number
one combined and units earned last year, number one with
win percentage and also number one in UNI. So I'm
zeroed in on this game. I'm really excited about it.
I'm excited about the whole card today. It'd be quite
frank it's the you know, first full week of college football, Kelly,
how could you not get it?
Speaker 1: Learning Ross?
Speaker 2: I text our new producer, Lloyd Denafriel. You guys may
have recognized that name from the Kelly and Murray Show.
He's filling in on Saturdays and Sundays for the great
Dan Neubert, so I can give him a little bit
of time off. But a Tex Louis and all capital letters.
I was like, get up, it's college football Saturday. It's
like Christmas morning. I'm so excited for today. Let's get
into some of these games that you think have some
better value.
Speaker 1: Which is one game that maybe you know right here.
Speaker 2: Let's actually let's sake Shawn's comment syracuston Tennessee is very
fishy to me. She's more like twenty and a half. Fishy, fishy,
I agree. I thought the line at fourteen and a
half would be very telling. I did, however, lay thirteen
and a half here with the Valls. The a SEC
has been historically horrible.
Speaker 1: Against the SEC. Three and fifteen straight up.
Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean Syracuse won't cover, but I think
Syracuse is getting a lot of love after last year
superseding expectations. You know, the Balls lose Nico to UCLA.
That's a whole another bunch of dramatic events. But let's
break down the Syracuse Tennessee game. If you have an
opinion for me.
Speaker 6: Well, you know this is a tough one for me
because I've been a lifelong Syracuse fan like you have
been a Kansas State fan. And you're right, o Kelly. Look,
they won ten games last year, but they played probably
one of the five softest schedules for Power four teams
last year, and now they're going to be playing one
of the toughest schedules. And this starts right here. I
mean some unknown you know, two new quarterbacks. Steve Angelly,
former Notre Dame quarterback Notre Dame backup taken over at
Syracuse lost a lot of pieces offensively from last year
Syracuse did, starting with Kyle McCord, who put up record
setting number. You lost your tight end and Aronde Gatson,
you lost one of your key receivers, Panya, who transferred
to Penn State. In their defense has a lot of
question marks. In Tennessee, we know their defense is real good.
They also have a new quarterback and Joey Aguilar, who's
you know now he's stepping up a bit from the
competition he's faced though, so you know, I would have
a small lean laying the points with Tennessee. But again,
I think the the I was gonna say color the
person who commented is right on the ball, seems a
little bit fishy where you think Tennessee would be a
bigger favorite here and they're not. So I'm gonna stay
away from the game, but I agree with Kelly. I
think small lean on Tennessee.
Speaker 5: Is the way to go.
Speaker 1: Shout out to everybody in the comments section.
Speaker 2: We got over two thousand watching live on x We
got five or six hundred alive on the wager TALKI
YouTube channel, a bunch of people on Instagram as well.
TikTok got mad at us because we talk about gambling.
But that's why we don't even really promote them anymore
unless people to put out some funny content.
Speaker 1: All right, some questions here. Let's talk from Rob Christiansen.
Speaker 2: He said, did Art say Kentucky was sharp and then
Yannie say his people were hammering Toledo? That is actually
what exactly happened. Art said it's all Kentucky money, they're
gonna need Toledo, and VR saying he's seeing the opposite ross.
Maybe break down this game. I wanted to put Toledo
on my money line parlay. Let's call it Monday or Tuesday.
I looked really hard at this Toledo team. That line
came from ten and a half.
Speaker 1: All the way down, all the way back up here
on the Odds logic screen, some nine and a half,
some tens, depending on where you like to shop. Do
you have an opinion on that game? Can you maybe
make some inferences here based on the line move and
make sense for all the rest of us.
Speaker 6: Well, I saw an opener of eleven and a half,
and then this came all the way down to seven
and a half, and now it's back up to ten.
I trust the early money on this. I mean, you
look at Toledo. Their recruiting class they brought in is
number one in the MAC. They're actually in the seventies
nationally in recruiting, which is unbelievable for a MAX school.
They brought in some very good transfers in the portal.
This is a team that's used to winning under Jason Kandle.
I just think that, you know, look at the MAC
so far, Kelly, I mean, you look at the dogs
in the MAC that have played on Thursday and Friday
and Week one. They've done awfully well. You know, they're
not winning games, but they're they're covering big numbers, and
I think Toledo has a shot to win this game outright.
To be quite frank, I'm not sold on Kentucky last
year three and eight against FBS teams. The only hesitancy
I have here is as bad as Kentucky was last year.
They did blow out Ohio that won the MAC. But
I think Toledo with Jason Kandle, this is this is
a guy. He's beaten two Power four teams in recent years.
So I like Toledo here plus the points.
Speaker 1: Somehow I got muted. I'm sorry. Ross I keep hitting
you know what it is.
Speaker 2: I got my notepad and I keep hitting my space
bar the doing of doing live shows. It's gonna be
a rough season, guys, because I'm gonna be just ready
to run through a brick while every single Saturday and
having waiting coffee.
Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of questions here.
Speaker 2: I did bet Toledo plus eight if you guys saw
that on my picket sports. I ultimately did not get
to the money line to the window with the money line,
but Ross kind of convincing. Maybe I better sprinkle just
a little bit just in case I was wrong.
Speaker 6: Let's greedy, Kelly, don't get greedy, you know.
Speaker 2: I just love I just love that plus money. I
cannot help myself. Let's get into some of these other
questions here in the chat. One of the guys was
asking Kelly, why do you like UCLA so much? So
let's talk about that. If you guys want to hear
my breakdown, it's up on my ex page. I get
right into why like Ucla and Nico with an established
run game that defense. You guys can watch that video
over there, because now we're gonna ask Ross what his
opinion is here on UCLA down to five and a
half now at home versus Utah.
Speaker 6: You know, I'm not crazy about Nico. I think that
he benefited from a great running game last year and
also a terrific defense at Tennessee. So it's we'll see
now at UCLA how he'll fair with a mediocre type
of club compared to an elite SEC team last year
in Utah. You're looking for a bounce back right from
the from the Utes. I have a small lean toward Utah.
I didn't use this game today, nor will I bet it.
But if you put the proverbial gun to my head, Kelly,
I'd have a small lean and have to disagree with
you just a slight bit. But you know, if you
have money on UCLA, I hope you win.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, Ross, I just am not buying that
you hype. Once again, since joining the Big twelve, they've
had it a little rough, all right, Lemon Cake wants
to know about the NOVAA team total seven and a half,
But ultimately here's another team getting a ton of hype.
Speaker 1: Ross.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this Penn State team. Do you think
that they are a national champion contender or we need
to pump the brakes just a little bit.
Speaker 6: You know. I did a college football betting preview show
with Teddy Covers over at the Westgate last week, as
you well know, and I picked Penn State to win
the Big Ten. Okay, so I'm a Penn State believer
this year.
Speaker 5: I really am.
Speaker 6: You know. Of course Teddy brings to my attention because
he has to correct me, and that's okay, everything to do. Yeah,
James Franklin just can't win big games.
Speaker 1: And that's a fact.
Speaker 5: I mean, he's not teasing me, he's stayed.
Speaker 1: In e fact.
Speaker 6: But I just think they were gonna get over to
Hump this year. So and their defense will continue to
be their strong suit. Veteran quarterback coming back for his
senior year, I really like Pence State a lot. Today's game,
they're laying such a big number and that over and
under is just wait. Yeah, I would want to go
under on that team total for New Mexico, but I
just can't do it. A number that's that's small, you
know what I mean? Kelly, you're talking about in a
game like this, Penn State maybe getting three deep into
the second half.
Speaker 2: Listen, Nevada is not some great mount West powerhouse team.
They're not a Boise State except that didn't look so
good on Thursday night. But you get the idea the
Boise States of the past, at least from what we've
seen previously, this is a Nevada team that could get
shut out seventy and a half. Seems rather fishy, though
I will say that just looking at it from the
surface level, I'm not buying as much Penn State hype
as you. I do think they're gonna make the College
Football Playoff. I do think they will be a contender
in the Big Ten, but I'm kind of with Teddy
in regards to James Franklin.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Notreed Miami.
Speaker 2: I know the game's not till tomorrow, but the chat
is going nuts about this game. Bill Ceybert says Notre
Dame is gonna run the ball down Miami's throat.
Speaker 1: I would agree. Here's another game.
Speaker 2: I gave out as my best, but I lay two
and a half here with the Irish Ross.
Speaker 1: Talk to me about the Sunday night game. It's gonna
be big.
Speaker 2: As we heard from Art and Caesar at the Westgates
Super Bowl, because it's a standalone game so it does
make me nervous that every parlay is probably gonna have
Notre Dame money line.
Speaker 6: Yeah, here's the thing with Miami. It's not so much
that I love Notre Dame in this game. It's that
I don't like Miami. I'm just sick and tired, and
you know, maybe it'll break the trend this year. Sick
and tired of the hype that Miami gets. Every year
they seem to be ranked in the top twenty. They
have a great recruiting class, and they're gonna be all that,
and they continue to disappoint.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 6: They look like they were gonna break that trend last year,
right starting nine to zero, and then they lose three
or the last four games. And the real killer for
Miami fans was that game they lost at Syracuse with
the twenty one and nothing lead and a game they
needed to win to get to the College Football playoff.
Mario Christobal, great recruiter, terrible head coach. If that makes
sense to you, Kelly, in terms of game day adjustments
and in game decisions, I'll take Marcus Freeman every day,
any day over Mario Cristobal. Notre Dame, great running game,
great offensive line, and also a great defense, and I
think that's gonna pay dividends in this matchup. The only
hesitancy I would have is CJ. Carr making his first
start and also Carson Becketting's you know, the former Georgia
quarterbacks done a lot of winning in his career, so
they'll have an advantage there. I'm not so sure Miami
is going to have a huge home field advantage here either, Kelly.
I mean, I think Notre Dame, you know, first game
of the year, holiday weekend, They're going to travel well,
especially you get the people from the Midwest who love
that Florida weather like Kelly does. So yeah, I'd have
a lean toward Notre Dame in this spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Notre Dame as well.
Speaker 2: Mario Christovall in his career never had back to back
double digit win seasons, and last year they didn't play.
Speaker 1: A single ranked opponent. Funny how that works. I better.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Syracuse ended up being ranked, but they weren't ranked
at the time.
Speaker 2: Sorry, yes, correct, Yes, it's more or less in my
opinion that cam Ward pulled so many games out of
his you know what, because I had the money line
on the other side, that cal money line still stings
almost a year later.
Speaker 1: It is what.
Speaker 2: It is, all right, guys, if you have any questions
for Ross in the chat, Jeremy Love over one hundred
and forty nine rushing yards and you get plus seven
to fifty Sean Sean Shan Shan. Yeah, listen, I think
we can run against Texas, but Texas still has a
pretty decent defense. Everybody, calm down. Plus seven fifty Sean.
You can tweet me if you're correct on that one.
I hope you are. How about that, I hope you
are correct. I hope Jeremiah Love runs the ball down
Texas's throat. All right, Florida State can upset Bama. Let's
talk about this game. This is a game then. I
think it's been really under the radar. I know that
Art Caesar mentioned a ton of people are gonna play
Alabama money line.
Speaker 1: I'm living down here in Florida.
Speaker 2: I got a lot of FSU fans who are like,
I'm going about Bama emotional heads.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get our doors blown off yet another one
of those fishy lines. Sitn't at thirteen and a half?
Speaker 6: Yeah on the money line in Alabama? Well, I mean
you're gonna lay that much juice. God bless you anyway. Alabama, Look,
they're gonna be good, no doubt about it. Teddy likes
them to win a national championship and makes a compelling.
Speaker 5: Case for that.
Speaker 6: However, this is a quarterback who's going to be starting
for the first time for Alabama and Florida State.
Speaker 5: I like what they brought in.
Speaker 6: I mean, terrible team last year, right two and ten,
only one in ten against FBS opponents, catching third teen
and a half at home. But they bring in Tommy Castelanos,
the former quarterback at BC, who is very good. And
I like the additions of Gus mel Zon as their
offensive coordinator to also bring in Herbhand as their offensive
line coach. The last three times Norvelle in Herbhand and
Gus mel Zon were together was at Telsa, and they
produce a five thousand yard passer in the dynamic offense.
So you know, the money's on Alabama overwhelmingly. But I'm
going to take a small shot here with Florida State here, Kelly.
I know, once in a while, you got to have
some guts, because if you don't, you have no glory.
Speaker 2: Sean just mentioned in the chat, there's gonna be some
shockers today, four and fourteen for home favorite so far
in week one.
Speaker 1: Wow, that is quite a stat.
Speaker 2: I don't have an ability to fact check this right now,
but yeah, my buddy text me last night, Hey, I
like Central Michigan.
Speaker 1: And I kind of blew him off and went to
bed night.
Speaker 2: Well up, and they want outright double digit road underdog.
So we have seen some nice upsets. Ross, who is
your pick to upset?
Speaker 1: Give me a money line, outright winner. We all know
a lot of those barking dogs.
Speaker 2: My three teams are UCLA, Northwestern and Virginia Tech. If
you guys missed my parlay video up there on my Instagram,
as well as x and TikTok Ross, let's get it.
Let's get a little juicy underdog here. That's one of
my favorite segments on bet on It. We call them
barking dogs.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I like Toledo. I think they're fully capable
of pulling the upset. I also like Georgia Southern at
Fresno State, and not a huge upset right because actually
they went to a one and a half point favorite
in that game. I'm a little sumthing's up with this
Northwestern Tulane game. You know you're looking at Northwestern opening
as a seven point dog. They're down to four and
a half against a TWU lane team that's favored to
win the AAC and Northwestern coming off a terrible year.
I would keep an eye on that game. I think
something's up there and we may see a potential upset
in that contest. And if again, going out on a
limb that Florida State pick that I just gave you,
I just got this eerie feeling that Florida State is
going to play much better than people anticipate. And watch
out for the Seminoles here with the overhaul they did
in the coaching staff and the transfer portal and bringing
in a new quarterback against a first time starter at
quarterback for Alabama.
Speaker 1: Oh ross.
Speaker 2: This Florida State team I've watched so much since I
moved down here four years ago. Let me tell you,
Mike Norvella is going to lose this one in gut
wrenching fashion.
Speaker 1: I can just see it now.
Speaker 2: I do lean plus the thirteen and a half I
did not take this team. I've got to see something
from Florida State.
Speaker 1: I think that's kind of how I feel about Week
one zero, week one even sometimes we you got to
kind of see some of these games play out, Especially
in the new college football era with the transfer portal,
we have new teams with little cohesion.
Speaker 2: They've some of them been practicing a little bit. I'll
tell you why I took Northwestern. It's because the BYU
transfer quarterback in ruts left just got there about a
month ago, and now we're asking to learn a new system,
learn an entire new playbook.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a little rough sledding.
Speaker 2: I like Northwestern plus three in the first half as well.
Hopefully they can get that cover of the six and
possibly that outright winner. All right, Ross, tell everybody what
you've got up over at wagertalk dot com. I know
you mentioned your five percent play on LSU Clemson, anything
else that people need to know.
Speaker 6: I got a winning side, winning sides, four of them,
including that five percent best bet, a winning side in
the twelve o'clock window, a winning side, and the three
p thirty window in also a late game which I
call my closer on late Saturday night. Again, folks, number
one in college football last year and win percentage units
earned number one over the last two college football seasons
combined units earned. So, you know, I hear a lot
of people talk about sharp money. I don't know if
any of the sharps are gonna top what I did
over the last two years in college football, you know.
And I'm not throwing stones at somebody, but I'm just saying,
you know, come on.
Speaker 2: Hey, that's why you got to be on the first
edition of Last All, that's why you've been on back
to back weeks on the Blitz on Thursdays with Brian Power.
Because right now number one college football handicapper. Let's see
if you can't repeat that again this year. I know
lots of people are going to be gunning for you
over there in the coveted number one spot.
Speaker 5: Bring it on.
Speaker 6: There's a lot of great handicappers that wageertalk dot com.
So when I say I'm number one in a particular sport,
I'm you know, I'm promoting. It's it's all I'm doing.
I know damn well that some of the guys at
the sum all the guys at the site are top notch.
Speaker 5: We have a.
Speaker 6: Collection of some of the best sports betting experts in
all the world at wadertalk dot com. We also have
the top host in all the world, the New World
of Sports Betting, and miss Kelly here and that's a
proven fact.
Speaker 2: Well, thank you, Ross, Aaron Elepstein's going to try to
give me a run for my money.
Speaker 1: We got a surprise. Joe Madden is going to be
doing Last Call on Love Joe, Love Joe.
Speaker 2: And Mondays before kickoff. So Last Call's moving to four
days a week guys, going forward starting this Thursday night.
So make sure you guys hit that subscribe button so
you never miss another episode. Ross, as long as you're
on the leaderboard, you're staying on Last Call with me.
So let's see if you can't have a great opening
weekend again. If you guys are looking for Ross's place,
head over to wager talk dot com.
Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys.
Speaker 2: Hanging out with us here each and every Saturday morning,
bright and early there on the West Coast eleven am
here on the East Coast. Ross, good luck, Thank you
to VR, have a good opening weekend. Thank you to
Art and Caesar from the Westgate super Book joining us
out there early every single Saturday morning here on Last Call.
And of course y'all in the Greek guys, he's up
next fifteen minutes. He's gonna be live here on the
wager Talk YouTube channel. Make sure you guys hop in there.
It is a free edition of his steam room. Bring
your pin, bring your paper, because he is going to
give you all of that gold. I hope you guys
have a wonderful and profitable Saturday. Good luck today, and
we'll see you next week.