Speaker 1: All right, Monday Funday here and down to a final four.
We're getting ready for the end of the regular season
in the NBA, the NHL, my goodness, and of course
Major League Baseball all in store for you. And we
have a pres free zone today here, maybe all week,
which means it's power time, Brian Power in the house,
ready to hang with us all week here on the
best betting show ever. And what I mean by all
week at least the next eight minutes. It's always a
pleasure to see you VP, even most people watching us. No,
that's not true either, but it is. No Honestly, it's
always a pleasure of seeing you here as we get
ready to say I can't believe it, goodbye to March.
But the madness is alive and well here, my friend is.
It was getting a little chalky for me, to tell
you the truth, with the ridiculousness and the blowouts that
we were getting here, But boy, Yukon changed all of
that for us yesterday against Duke, didn't they. And now
it's a very interesting final four coming up here, isn't it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is pleasure to be here, Joe, of course,
and interesting that I had Duke's team total over in
that game yesterday, very given how the game played out,
very kind of interesting winner. I'm sure that if you're
a Duke fan, you don't really give a damn that
they barely scratched over their team total and another unnecessary
sweat for me Joe. They scored forty four points in
the first half in the Blue Devils, and the team
total I got it at sixty nine and a half.
I'm thinking of myself, what are the chances that this
Duke team's only gonna put twenty five points in the
next second half or in the second half. Well, with
two minutes left, they only scored twenty five points, and
I'm like, and guess what a team that had played
with fire all tournament long. They trailed Ciena by double digits.
It was a lost game with TCU seventy five percent
of the way through before Jamie Dixon got a ridiculous
technical foul for protesting a bad call. And then they
trailed Saint John's by double digits as well. Well, it
all blew up in john Shire and Duke's face. They
are out yukon now seventeen and one against the number
the last three years in the tournament.
Speaker 3: And that is a championship pedigree.
Speaker 1: That was that was my five percent yesterday and the
weekend I had Duke getting five and a half.
Speaker 3: It got bet.
Speaker 1: It was funny, he got bet to about four four
and a half, and then the whole world came in
on Duke yesterday pushing it back up to a five
and a half dog and a five and a half
favorite for Duke. And after they went one and for
eleven from three in the first half, and that was
really the big difference in the first half was their
inability to get anything to drop from the perimeter. Now,
Duke has always been a good three point defender. I
think teams shot just about thirty percent on the year
for them, but at one point, even going into the
second half, they were one for seventeen, one for eighteen
before they made one. So you kind of were going,
my goodness, if they just shot thirty percent the season average.
Speaker 3: I mean, the variance was ridiculous.
Speaker 1: That you had Saint John's made an absurd amount of
threes as a thirty percent, you know, three point shooting team,
and then all of a sudden they're hitting forty five
or better from three. In that game against Duke, and
in this one you've got I mean, listen, they were
a Yukon during a year thirty six percent three point
shooting team. It wasn't tremendous, but they were certainly better
than the one for eleven in the first half. So
they honestly had to come back from dominating everything else
bp they dominated. They didn't turn the ball over to
Duke right like we saw other teams.
Speaker 3: Didn't turn up.
Speaker 1: We saw the turnover issue with Duke into the Saint
John's with the pressure, Saint John's couldn't finish. Yukon is
a national chance, Yukon has a championship pedigree, and you
know what, that mattered there. And Caraban, to me, maybe
might have been the unsung guy. A lot of guys
would have just panicked and chucked that ball up when
he was given that at the end, and instead he
gave it back to a wide open mull And to
get it, which was I thought, that's when experience matters
in college basketball. Didn't look panicked at all Yukon in
the second half, and I think that's the difference.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you're never DoD I mean, how many
times have we seen in these games shoe the second
half going wildly different from the first. Unfortunately, I had
a loser on Saturday with a Purdue team and was
beating here heaven. You know, you're getting more possessions and
you think, okay, we could stay within the number.
Speaker 3: Still.
Speaker 2: You know, it's funny you brought up the three point
variants with Saint John's in that game on Friday. I
had the Johnnies against you, and I felt a little
queasy going into the game because they were the verbial
public dog. Yep, Saint John's was, but the whole it's
it's funny how you you were talking about how you
were feeling during the game. If we could only hit
a three, if we can only hit a three, we
can get back inside this number, maybe with Yukon. Well,
I'm watching Saint John's a duke, and I'm watching Saint
John's melt down the stretch, and I keep them look
saying to myself, they shot so well from three, there's
no way we can't cover. They shot beyond my wildest
dreams from three. We have to stay within this number
and they and they fortunately did. But yeah, duke, look,
they kept saying during that Saint John's telecast. This is
a team Duke that, including the Saint John's game, they
had one they were six and oh Duke was in
game where they trailed by double digits. Joe, as you know,
you've watched enough basketballow falling behind double digits is not
generally a good recipe for winning games. So I know
there's a lot of people in Duke Land who are
gonna say, oh, we're so unlucky the way we lost
that game against Yukon. Oh, you know the North Carolina
game in the regular season. Remember they led like ninety
nine percent of that game except until the game winning three.
Speaker 3: Yep, you know, it works both ways.
Speaker 2: You know, Duke was a team that, yes, they blew
big leads in some of their losses, but they also
had a lot of comeback wins. And they did one
more stat for one more stat for you, Joe. I
had given this out on the Morning Wager last week.
We had never ever had back to back tournaments where
at least three number one seeds made the final four.
Of course, last year all four made it. It looked like,
you know, when Duke was up big at the half yesterday,
it looked like history was gonna be made. We were
gonna get three this year, but nope, that trend still
holds and just two.
Speaker 3: Number one seeds.
Speaker 2: And I guess we probably should talk about that game
since it's going to get a lot of discussion over
the next six days. Michigan and Arizona. But I guess
everyone is gonna say Joe is the true National Championship
game on Saturday.
Speaker 1: I could tell there is one thing that stands out
to me in this final four, and that is the
makeup of these teams are all very similar. And what
I mean by that is there are more six eleven
and seven footers on these four teams.
Speaker 3: These teams are huge.
Speaker 1: And the fact that I mean NATO IT team brought
up Charles Bettiaco as a reason is to why they
couldn't compete with Michigan, I thought was hilarious. But I mean,
you look at the These are the biggest teams I
can remember in a very long time heading to the
Final four. The difference obviously is going to be some
of them. You know, Michigan shoots the three much better
than Arizona does. Arizona's not a three point shooting team.
They're into dominating inside the payton at the rim. Michigan's
pretty good at defending inside of that, and they have
just as much size as Arizona. So I think that's
gonna be fascinating. And listen, Illinois, the team two and
all that size, they're not gonna let you getting your
own rebounds. But at the same time, did it look
like did it look like Yukon was intimidated at all
from the Physicality's like?
Speaker 3: No, these these four teams, I.
Speaker 1: Think they're a lot closer than the market is setting
them up to be. The market is making it seem
as if whoever wins this Michigan Arizona game is your
national champion. I don't think so, because they're to me,
there's not a whole lot separating these four teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's gonna be said a lot over the
next I'm with you, like a very interesting to see
where the market is at, you know, where it opens
on Sunday after these two national semi finals are over,
because like I said before I threw it to you,
we're gonna have now five six days where we keep
hearing Michigan Arizona's the real national championship. And when that
viewpoint just get with you know, a rolling stone gathering
moss if you will, Joe, everyone's gonna say that the
market's gonna respond accordingly, and there could potentially be some
value on the underdog next Monday, whomever that may be,
Ill or Yukon. I want to go back to something
you said about the size of these teams. I think, yeah,
it's sort of you know, people for you know, I
think with the three point shot, everyone sort of forgot
that size can matter as well. And you know, rim
protection that's huge, right. Obviously, there's so much variance involved
in three point shooting. I always joke if we knew
what the three point variants that was going to be
ahead of time, we'd all be millionaires. But the one
thing you can't control with size.
Speaker 3: Is rim protection.
Speaker 2: Yes, and Michigan and Arizona both do that exceptionally well,
you know, they make it hard, you know.
Speaker 3: Teams that penetrate.
Speaker 2: You know, we saw Arkansas who had been feasting for
about a month getting the inside could do nothing against
Arizona and then Arkansas, you being in that defensively didn't
help their case either. But yeah, I mean I think team,
you know, these teams with size that matters, man, because
you have rim protection. In modern basketball, teams are to
take two shit. They want to either get close to
the rim, they want to get layups or dunks and threes. No,
there's no one's taking mid range jumpers anymore.
Speaker 1: So although Illinois is pretty good, I mean, Illinois is
actually a pretty good team too. With that, Purdue was
very good. But Purdue just you know, they fell apart
in the second half. Shocker that a Matt Painter and
Rick Barnes team can't make it past the Elite eight.
What a absolute shocker there. But it is going to
be a fantastic Final four, I think, and I do
believe there's a couple of teams undervalued, maybe a couple
of teams overvalued. We'll talk about that coming up in
the predictive markets. I do want to mention also, Major
League Baseball full weekend in the books here BP, and
I'm sorry, I think it's going to go down as
maybe one of the greatest. And we don't get a
lot of rule changes in Major League Baseball because nobody
lives in the rearview mirror better than major League Baseball.
On the purists and oh we've always done it, that
whole crew there again, dude, you imagine if Babe Ruth
add an ab the ABS system might be the greatest
thing ever to happen in Major League Baseball, because if
you watch the reaction just on Saturday's game alone with
the Red Sox and the Reds and that home playing
umpire got six calls overturned, and the Red Sox in
the meantime blew through their challengers early in the game
and then couldn't challenge when they needed to at the
end of the game. It adds a whole new layer
of intrigue to the game here. And more importantly, it
doesn't take forever. We know the answer right away and
get the goddamn call, right, That's all that matters.
Speaker 3: That's all we care about.
Speaker 1: But you would have thought they were playing a playoff
game with how the crowd was going ballistic every time
the home plane umpire got overturned in favor of a
Reds hitter.
Speaker 3: It is hilarious. I'm like, give me more of this.
I Baseball nailed it with this.
Speaker 2: Yes, I concur And the funny thing was, it's also
confirming something we already believed that ce B Buckner, who
was the umpire in question, Joe sticks. You know he
was a money Yeah, I know, but he was. He
was one of the ones in particular that was much
And yes, the new system made him look foolish, and
I think that's why I think a lot of people
are like, yes, ce B Buckner is a terrible home
plate on fire and guess what is to confirm that he's.
Speaker 3: Not very good?
Speaker 2: And you're right, at the end of the day, I
get that human error is a part of sports. But
at the end of the day, we want the calls
to be right. You know, nobody wants games any sport.
No one wants anything to be determined by you know,
bad officiating, bad umpire. So yes, I'm all for it,
and it doesn't take a lot of time. We just
want these calls to be right, you know. Middle Again
he always says, I think everything should be reviewable. Now
I think, you know, there needs to be some constraints
we don't want, but no, I'm.
Speaker 3: All for it.
Speaker 1: And again, I think there's a strategy now in play. Again,
didn't work out for Kora, but you know there's you
gotta be able to pick them away, and I think
it's gonna be fantastic. Fifty four percent of the actual
challengers got overturned this past so far in Major League
Baseball to start and see it, which means it's working.
It's doing exactly what we wanted it to do. Because
across that many games, that's a pretty big that's an
impressive percentage of calls that were they got wrong, you know,
a couple of inches here and there. But the reality
is it changes the dynamic of the game and makes
it worth makes it really interesting to watch how this
all happens moving forward. But I love that hopefully this
makes the umpires better in the long run after getting
turned out, like maybe this helps Buckner get you know,
is strikeing someone be a little bit better. But my goodness,
I mean five for five and two innings was hilarious
to watch.
Speaker 2: Did you see they have the stats? There was a
huge split between old umpires and young umpires who were
getting calls overturned. Like it was. It really skewed to
the older umpires, which you know, we don't want to
be an show here on the best betting show ever,
but but there could be a uh sort of don't
let the door hit your ass on the way out
to some of these older umpires that could be a
result of this that some of these guys don't get
the found forever. If you're missing, you know, you're getting
half your calls wrong the game or at least five.
Speaker 1: Well, teams like the Yankees who don't chase and don't
you know, take a ton of pitches there could it's
gonna be advantage here at some point. I think there's
some of those more plate disciplined teams. Well, one thing's
for sure, it is absolutely highlighting, you know. That's why
we say part of the handicappers know who's behind home plate.
Guys know who's calling balls and strikes. It could be
a lot more abs involved in games before it is
all said and done so BP, we got a ton
of Major League Baseball action here today.
Speaker 3: We've got some NBA action.
Speaker 1: We've got a couple of predictive markets that we're going
to take a look at involving both the NBA and
the National Championship here in college hoops. But first you
got to get a parlay of the day here going
where are you going to head here.
Speaker 3: For your end of the Well, what's going to.
Speaker 1: Be a two team looks like it could be a
two team money line parlay? Maybe what are you looking
at here today?
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the Reds, who are host of the Pirates. Joe,
I understand what the conventional wisdom was coming into the
twenty twenty sixth season.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: Everyone loves this Pirates team. You're going to take a
big step forward, possibly make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: You and I talk.
Speaker 2: I believe it was last Monday when I was on
the greve you and I said, maybe it was time
to pump the brakes on that it is still the
Pirates after all. Meanwhile, everyone likes the Reds, who did
wind up getting that last wild card spot last fall.
If your call everyone, they were a kind of a
consensus underteam coming to the right. A lot of people
thought they were going to finish with a losing record.
Well one weekend in the books, Pirates one and two,
Reds two and one. I like the Reds in the
opener mainly because of who is on the mound, Chase Burns.
This is a very highly touted prospect. He was the
number two pick in the twenty twenty four draft. If
you remember he was, You know, there were a lot
of these highly touted prospects that seemed to be called
up all at once. Joe in the second half last
year of the season, Burns did struggle with his command,
but I mean, this is a guy who averaged nearly
fourteen strikeouts for nine innings. And if you look at
Phipp versus Era, I think PHIP is a far more
predictive metric than Era is. His FIP was really good
Burns last year two point six y five. So I
think Burns, who did not get a win in his
thirteen appearances eight starts last year, is in line for
a strong start tonight. I know the Pirates offense has improved.
How much is it improved? We shall see. And I
like Burns. I prefer him to Ashcroft, who's starting for Pittsburgh.
So Reds minus one thirty on the money line, that'll
be my half of the ARLA of the day. And
I would not mind even Joe sprinkling a little bit
on Burns plus two twenty to get a win tonight,
to record a win, Oh.
Speaker 1: I kind of I kind of liked that there BP
all right, so and by the way, crazy what what
is it Salvator Stewart?
Speaker 3: Is it is?
Speaker 2: That?
Speaker 3: Is that his name? Salvator Stewart?
Speaker 1: The kid might hit four hundreds with the way he
he went this week. And guy is an absolute stud
and he doesn't have the great baseball body, but the
kid is an absolute monster at the played here. So
the future pretty bright there for your Reds. Now, there
are some teams that have some serious issues, especially in
the bullpen, and Tampa Bay was one of those teams
this weekend between them and the Cardinals. I don't know
what bullpen was worse, but the amount of runs that
we got in that game that series between the Rays
and the Cardinals was hilarious. Now, Tampa's got to take
this disheveled bullpen on the road to take on the
Milwaukee Brewers, who already showed us this past week they
got no problem beating up awful pitching and that's what
we got from the White Sox here. Something tells me
we're gonna get a ton of runs in this Tampa
and Milwaukee game here tonight. I believe the young guy
Martinez is going of all teams there, and Kyle Harrison
going for their prospective teams. Either way, I thought eight
was too low. Eight and a half probably start to
pop up in the marketplace right now. Can't truck Cash
doesn't know what to do with that bullpen of Tampa.
They usually don't figure it out until we get to
May anyway.
Speaker 3: But the way the.
Speaker 1: Brewers are swinging the bats, there is no reason for
me to think they can't put up six runs themselves
in this game. I think this goes flying over the total.
So I'll go with the over tonight with Tampa and
the Brewers.
Speaker 3: There BP.
Speaker 2: Brewers always a team that the sports but that better's
down the year, and they always seem to defy the
laws of regression and defy the presets and baselines. So yeah, Milwaukee,
you're gonna be I think Tampa Bay'll figure it out too.
I mean, I don't know what Tampa Bay's ceiling is
in that division. The AL East is obviously so tough.
I bet Tampa Bay over their win total. I think
they could still get there. I mean, but you know,
well they got I mean they can't.
Speaker 1: I mean, Griffin Jacks blew a couple of saves this
past week, and I mean they got a couple of
guys that are just and they got used a lot
in that series. So something tells me, yeah, we might
be taking one for the team here tonight, these starting pitchers.
But I still think runs because I believe the Tampa
offense more than capable of scoring some runs in that
ballpark as well, So give me the over in that. Also, guys,
make sure you hit the like, hit the subscribe button,
make sure you become part of the wager Talk TV family.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: BP also has a show with what our good friend
Mark Zeno there during the week that you can catch
on the YouTube channel there. How is the Morning Wager
going these days?
Speaker 3: There? BP going swimmingly? You can catch it, and you know,
we give you a choice.
Speaker 2: You can watch it here on the wager Talk YouTube channel,
or you can watch on the Picks and Parlays YouTube channel.
Please subscribe to both if you would be that way,
you will not miss any of the content on both
of those YouTube channels.
Speaker 3: But yes, the.
Speaker 2: Monday's Morning Wager has already been posted every Monday through Friday.
And I giving you three free plays, so.
Speaker 3: Tree free plays. I love that all.
Speaker 1: Right, before we get into the rundowns and some business here,
let's talk about these predictive markets because they are on
fire right now BP, And let's start with the National
Championship Game. First, you and I were talking now that
of course we have an understanding of who the final
four teams are. As you can see, this is an
interesting market because the national champion while Arizona Michigan awkward
play one another. So one of those two teams is
not going to advance. But Illinois and Yukon obviously underpriced
as far as I'm concerned, I had mentioned I don't
think there's a lot separating these four teams. But from
a price perspective, I mean, I'm looking at thirty let's
just say thirty five cents for Michigan and Arizona to
win the National Championship. Well, whoever wins that game. To me,
they're going to be the favorite. And I've got it
somewhere between the sixty to sixty five sixty six cent
mark that just by being in the final game, they're
gonna come close to doubling what their price is right now.
And I think we can say the same thing for
Illinois and Yukon. I mean, you conted fourteen cents right
now just by beating Illinois and getting into the National Championship.
I think that fourteen cents turns into forty cents tomorrow
there BP as soon as the game is over. So Again,
the thing about the predictive markets is we don't need
this to go to FRU. I don't need these teams
to actually win. It would be great if you wanted
to hold on to it, but I'm all about the
options being able to cash out, buying in low and selling.
When all of a sudden, you know, Yukon, I get
in at fourteen, they beat Illinois, and now all of
a sudden, they're a forty five cent team to win
the national Championship. I'll take that quick turnaround prop any day,
because again, I still think Illinois and Yukon have every
opportunity to win this national Championship, and the pricing is
basically telling you it's Arizona, Michigan. Whoever gets out, I mean,
whoever wins that BP, we're gonna wake up. They're gonna
be a sixty five cent, sixty cent team to win
the national championship. Because they're also gonna be about a
buck fifty. I think favorite one way or together or
more depending on if it's Illinois or Yukon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think even more possible. Yeah, looking at that
screen right there, Joe, I would concur with you the
value in that particular market is clearly on whomever you
think is gonna win the Illinois Yukon game with the
ability to you know, cash out obviously before you know,
in between Saturday semi final and Monday's final, I will
say this about Illinois. Interesting trend going against the fighting
a line II Joe. No team that has lost its
first conference tournament game ever went on to win the
national championship. Illinois lost its first conference game. They were
one and none in the Big Ten Attorney, So history
says they're not winning the chance. They're not going to
win the national championship. No, that doesn't mean they can't
beat Yukon and get to the get to the final.
But you know Yukon obviously, you know I mentioned the
trend at the top now seventeen and one against the
spread in the NCAA tournament the last three years or
the last four years. Pardon me, yeah, I mean I
think they showed yesterday. It's a mistake to discount them.
So I you know, you look at that screen again.
I think the value is on Yukon. Really, that that's
who I would go with if I were to you
were to force me to bet yes on someone here
in this market.
Speaker 3: Yukon.
Speaker 2: And look, it just dropped the twelve cents, so there
you go.
Speaker 1: So I mean, yeah, twelve, yeah, it is still it's
about thirteen cents now, so it did drop a cent
there for the yes market. But I'll and I'll say
this BP and again this is all about staf and
giving yourself different options and outs.
Speaker 3: Right, if I think.
Speaker 1: Illinois is gonna win, I'm betting Illinois on the money
line at minus one thirty against Yukon. But I'm sure
as how back in Illinois at what eighteen cents to
win the national championship in this market, because like I said,
I fully anticipate Illinois to open up if they beat
Yukon here at.
Speaker 3: A pretty darn good price.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, they're gonna at least double in
value from what you're getting them in at eighteen cents,
thirty six, thirty seventh or maybe even forty cents. So
not only am I taking them on the money line,
I'm taking them in this market here. That is a
substantial increase for just beating Yukon. So I'll take them
on the money line and I'll invest in them in
eighteen cents and then if they hit forty cents to
win the national championship. Guess what I'm doing Now, I
can figure out what do I want to do. Do
I want to roll the dice or do I want
to cash out and invest it in another market? So
to me, it's all about options VP, and that's what
the predictive markets offer you in conjunction with sportsbooks. Obviously
your money lines and those types of things. Yes, go
ahead and do it. But in a future market like
that with one game to go, we got some opportunities
I think in that space. Same thing in the NBA,
because that's the other market I wanted to talk about. Here,
let's take a look at teams and what the odds
are VP to make the playoffs. Now, again, making the
play in is not making the playoffs. So these prices
are based upon actually making it out of the play
in tournament. And right now we know who's in the
play in tournament. Right, Let's start with the East, because
I believe the East if we look this up here
a little further, the East is Yeah, so Charlotte, Miami, Orlando, Philadelphia,
that's your cut line right there. Right, So of those
team teams, the are BP. I mean, who's making it
from the East into the postseason.
Speaker 3: What do we got a better shot at getting here?
Do you think right now?
Speaker 2: Well, if we can go back to that screen with
shows the problem, I think Charlotte is the best value
on the board to make the playoffs, to get in
to the final eight. Now, they may have to win
two playing games. Remember, guys, if you finish in that
nine to ten spot, you have to win twice in
the play and tournament to make the playoffs proper. But
you look Joe at a lot of the underlying metrics
and Charlotte is the best of those. You know, Obviously
there's a gap I think most of our viewers. You know,
If you guys don't agree with this, feel free to
comment down below. But I think there's a gap in
the East between the top four teams and then the
next six, right between Cleveland and then the bottom six.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: I think we all presume those top four teams maybe
the conference semi finals, but after that, like, I think
Charlotte's as good as anyone.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 2: The Hornets are coming off a bad week and they
blew a double digit lead against Philadelphia at home, and
they had to turn around and face Boston yesterday and
they lose. But I mean you look at point differential,
you look at net rating, Charlotte is better than Toronto,
better than Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, Philadelphia. So I think Charlotte, yes,
is a good value to make the top to make
the final eight in the Eastern Conference. Currently trading at
fifty cents.
Speaker 1: If I see that, yes, that's kreat I mean it's
about even money as far as what that price is
right now to make the odd of the play and
into the postseason here. I don't think Atlanta up at
the tie. I think Atlanta stays out. I do not
trust Toronto. You and I had a conversation about what
about the no markets for Toronto who beat Orlando. That
was just hilarious yesterday. But you were looking at their
schedule down the road here now currently there's only a
game separating them and everybody else.
Speaker 3: That's the play in here. But the schedule.
Speaker 1: They got Detroit coming up, They've got Miami twice.
Speaker 3: I think they've got Boston.
Speaker 1: They have a couple of layoffs also, I think Sacramento
and Memphis in there. Yes, But do we trust Toronto
to make it not only stay out of the play
in but maybe make it out of the play in
because I don't.
Speaker 2: So. If you look at the odds to win the
Eastern Conference, okay, the ten teams available in that market,
Toronto is tied with Orlando as the long shot. The
sportsbooks don't aren't big believers in this Toronto team. I
can tell you as a Cavs fan, I would love
if Toronto did finish fifth and that they were the
Calves first round opponents. They're the team I am scared
the least of out of those bottom six, and I
think at what is it twelve cents we saw on
the screen, do you think there's some value in betting
the Raptors not to even make the playoffs?
Speaker 3: Yep?
Speaker 2: Again, because they're currently fifth. Obviously, if you finish the
top six, you avoid the play true, but if they slipped,
if they were to fall into the plant and look,
if you look, Philadelphia is only a game back, so
Toronto would only need to be passed by you know,
Atlanta and Philly. If Atlanta and Philly finish out of
Toronto and Toronto goes into the play in tournament, yep,
I don't love the Raptors against Orlando, Miami and Charlotte.
I think the week those four teams and they would
have you know, they would have the mindset, Oh my god,
we were top five. Now we fell in this play
in tournament. So you would wonder about the mindset. And
there's a chance they could because you mentioned the schedule,
Joe Miami twice, Boston, the Knicks. So I mean Toronto
may only play five hundred the rest of the way,
and if they do that, there's a chance they slip
into the play And you know, all of a sudden,
if we bet them at twelve cents to miss the playoffs,
if they fall into the play in tournament, we can
cash out and that's a good and make a little
money there.
Speaker 3: I kind of like where you're heading with that one.
Speaker 1: And the other big question to me over in the
West is what we do with Golden State, who they
swear Steph Curry will be back this week. They're thinking
he will be back here and right now, if we
take a look at what the Western Conference playoffs are
here there they are sitting at the bottom. But you
know who's overtaking them is the question? And if Steph
Curry is back, do we like Steph Curry? I mean,
Memphis is not catching them, right, So we know Memphis
is not in it. So it's just a matter of
whether or not you think Golden State's going to make
it out of the play in game with porzingis now
apparently somewhat healthy, and Steph Curry, now he is that
kind of game changer. So is there any value in
because nobody, it looks like, from the market perspective, thinks
Golden State. I mean a twenty five cent chance right
now is what they're pricing him at to make out
of the play in into the postseason. If Steph Curry's playing,
I mean, all bets are off as far as I'm concerned.
Speaker 2: So here's the deal. Unlike the East, we know who
the top six are the last and and we pretty
much know who the four playing.
Speaker 3: Teams are gonna be.
Speaker 2: I would be surprised if Phoenix made a run and
off the top six. So you're taking a look, it's
a situation where you have it right now. Phoenix would
play the Clippers, winner gets the seven seed, and then
the loser would face the Golden State Portland winner. I
gotta be honest with you, just so I don't think
Portland is not winning two in the play term.
Speaker 3: I would be shocked by that.
Speaker 2: You know, we were writing off Golden State before the show.
But the more I think about it, just looking at
the price, Golden State needing to just win once yep,
if you like, okay, I would I would think, you know,
obviously with a healthy curry, I would like them to
beat Portland.
Speaker 3: I think you're talking about.
Speaker 2: A situation where they would then just need to beat
either Phoenix or the Clippers.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 2: I think Golden State, Yes, twenty five cents. I think
there actually is some value there because if they beat Portland,
obviously that price is gonna shoot way up.
Speaker 1: That's kind of what I'm thinking at twenty five cent.
And again, they all indications are they're trying to get
him back out here this week, back add on to
the court, and if that's the case, I'm with you.
I mean, a shot at them winning and getting in,
you know, a couple of times here out of the plane.
I think there's value at twenty five cents. But he's
got to be in. Obviously, he's got to be in.
And I don't trust Orlando or Miami. I'm having a
hard time with that one, but I do trust the Clippers.
I do think the Clippers could be one and in here.
I think this new revamped Clippers team is a winner.
I think they're very dangerous and I think at this
point they are.
Speaker 3: Going to be what the seven seeds.
Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to believe that that's the case,
but I'm pretty sure that that's what we'd be looking
at here right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'd be the way the standings are now. And
I don't think Portland or Golden State overtakes the Clippers
here in the final week. Certainly not Golden State. They
have a three game manage there. Portland at one and
a half, I guess, is still in play. Let's just
for argument, say the Clippers finish in the top eight. Yes,
they would just need to win one play. They would
need to beat Phoenix to get these sevens. And the
Clippers are a lot like Charlotte over in the East Show,
where it was obviously a bad start to the season.
But the Clippers, I mean, if you go back, they
were ten games under five hundred in early January. Now
they're three games over there. I mean, they've played much
better than a team that the average team that's in
the eighth position, and it's conference are thirteen, that's what
twenty six and they're twenty six and thirteen over their
last thirty nine games. The Clippers, it's a.
Speaker 1: Different team with health, with a Kawhi, with matharn now
Darius Garland is how this is a different Clipper team.
I still think they can catch Phoenix for that number
seven spot, and I think they would host then, and
they would host exactly correct. And then anytime you have
in a one off situation, Kawhi Leonard, I'm in and
right now the Clippers. Yeah, I mean they're chalking at
seventy two cents here, but that means if the Clippers
are in, are we one hunder present convinced Phoenix is in?
Speaker 3: I mean, are we that convinced.
Speaker 2: It goes back to our Golden State discussion, and it's
a matter of price.
Speaker 3: I liked it.
Speaker 2: The Clippers are obviously a better price just to you know,
to get in. I prefer the Clippers to Phoenix to
both both price and just handicapping wise, I think the
Clippers are more likely than Phoenix to get in the
final eight. And so yeah, I wouldn't want to bet
Phoenix at that current number.
Speaker 3: I don't love.
Speaker 2: Then I mean, but like the Tonto Yeah, yeah, because
I mean, but I like Toronto's no Price better than
Phoenix is no Price.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Darren Brooks and Hell is huge. I
mean they have to be. We have to know exactly
what's going on. Not having him, not having Williams down
to stretch here has been a problem. But I still
think Phoenix is one of those teams that's absolutely overperformed
and wouldn't shock me if they get bounced early. So
at twenty three cents, there in the no market for
Phoenix not making it into the playoffs.
Speaker 3: I can't see him making it.
Speaker 1: I think there's a good shot they don't, especially if
Steph Curry's in either it is a good shot Phoenix
would be the odd man looking out here, even though
they'd be what the seventh or eighth seed. I think
there's a good shot they don't make it, especially with
Steph Curry being back in the pitching.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The way I see this working is the Clippers beat Phoenix.
Nippers are the seven, and that it's a one that won.
In your in scenario, Phoenix and Golden State would play
to get the eighth seed. And again, if you've got
Golden State at twenty five ense you can always cash out, yeah,
or you can just bet Phoenix in that because you
probably Phoenix would not be a huge favorite against Golden State,
not even at hole in a one in a winner
in a must win situation.
Speaker 1: And you know Steph would garner all of that public
support too as.
Speaker 2: Well, So Phoenix would be a short favorite at home
in that situation for sure.
Speaker 1: Good stuff there, and that is what makes these predictive
markets so much fun. Make sure you guys hit the
light button, subscribe button, make sure that you guys drop
us a comment below. Who do you think makes the
NBA Playoffs and who will be on the outside looking
in here? I think the East and the West have
some opportunities to fade a couple of teams, but I
think there's also some guarantees that we can just pencil
them into moving on into the postseason out of the
play in spot. All Right, I hate to do it,
but it is that time.
Speaker 3: BP. It's time for some which is unfortunately we.
Speaker 1: Got to look at the pres who is enjoying his
skiing apparently too much to join us. But that's okay.
We got winners coming up. NBA Rundown, Major League Baseball Rundown.
We'll throw out a couple of best bets for you
here on the card today, But tell the folks what
you got rolling over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: Two MLB plays available to premium MLB plays available for Monday, guys.
Don't forget. We've got a great new specially going at
wager talk where you can get a three day at
pass for forty nine dollars. So the two plays today
are for twenty nine, but if you want the next
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a ton of great deals going on at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 3: This is the latest as.
Speaker 2: We look start the Major League Baseball season in full
swing here. So I'll go to my pagewt dot buzz
slash VP for those two MLB winners on Monday.
Speaker 1: Yep, you can do that wager talk dot com. Forwards
last specials guys, we'll get you right there, same thing too,
BB I got a four percent NBA top play locked
and loaded. Also Major League Baseball in and ready to go.
So those plays are available over at wager talk dot com.
Now would be the time to hop on board. Take
advantage of one of those deals, especially with the Major
League Baseball three days, I mean, it's four game series
now setting up here, starting on a Monday. All right, BP,
let's talk some NBA here. We got a couple of
games in the NBA rundown. I'll throw them out there.
Not a ton of games here, but some interesting lines,
to say the least here today BP and the NBA.
Speaker 3: So why don't we.
Speaker 1: Start with the ones that aren't as gross, one of
them being Boston and Atlanta Here where Atlanta s light
home favorite Celtics second of a back to back, nice
win on the road against Charlotte yesterday without Jalen Brown,
they are sort of locked into that number two spot
with Detroit. Against Detroit, I don't I am not sure
why they would not rest a Tatum or Brown's apparently
got some sort of achilles calf injury. I can't see
them laying it all out here to beat Atlanta in
this game here, do you no?
Speaker 2: And there was some question whether Tatum was gonna play yesterday.
He wound up the market did the market did not
believe Tatum was gonna play. And I'm very upset about that, Joe,
because I wanted to play ball yesterday because Charlotte was
off just a crushing loss on Saturday filled alf for
where they blew a lead, and I didn't think they
would have much in the tank to Hornet. So I
was like, oh my goodness, Austin, you know, basically as
a pickham price. But then I was like, oh my god,
I don't know. No Tatum, no Brown. Yep, yeah, there's
that lot of that's a lot of cu and I
didn't want to bet to that uncertainy with Boston lo
and behold, Tatum plays and the self explode the Hornets out.
But yeah, I think there's a chance Tatum could rest.
The Brown injury seems more serious than is being let on.
Speaker 3: I agree, at least.
Speaker 2: Injury that's not great. In Atlanta, who I believe is
won twelve in a row at home, Joan Airey, I
has revenge for a loss in Boston. You know what
was that a Thursday or Friday? So yeah, the Hawks here,
I could see the Hawks emerging victorious. They need it
to stay in the top six. Whereas you mentioned Boston
likely going to be the two seed in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you got another one too.
Speaker 1: The Pistons last night started telling everyone who wouldn't be
playing against the Thunder Thunder on the second of a
back to back, and but we knew last night the
Pistons we were likely weren't seeing. Durham, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris,
Austin Thompson also still questionable. So basically none of the
Pistons starters could be available for this game here, which
is why you saw this thing shoot up to thirteen
and a half.
Speaker 3: We are starting to see.
Speaker 1: A little bit of buyback now eleven and a half's
in the market twelve But I mean that's again. The
Thunder just took on the Knicks, which is not a
cake walk. But even the Pistons backups, I don't know
we trust in the Thunder to run away year.
Speaker 2: No, I mean that was a miss. Look I have
the Knicks last night against the Thunder. It's a two
point game with a couple of minutes left. They wind
up losing, and that sucked, to be honest with you,
So I'm not running to bet ok see here, even though, Look,
the Troit's been undervalued ever since the Cunningham injury. Everyone
thought the Pistons were gonna fall flat on their face, Joe.
I know Minnesota didn't have Edwards either on Saturday night,
but Detroit went to Minnesota and dominated, YEP, a game
where both teams were missing their best player, So yeah,
I would. I'm not running to lay this year with
the thunder, especially on the second night of a back
to back.
Speaker 3: I agree with you there.
Speaker 1: All the other games are just absurd prices except.
Speaker 3: For Miami and Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I have never seen a Philadelphia injury report
have that few and it there's one name on it,
and that's h Johnny Broom who had surgery and he's
never playing this year. So I just I don't there
is nobody, which means they'll have everybody available. And isn't
it the definition of don't catch a falling knife? That's
what Miami is right now. They can't stop a nosebleed folks.
To lose to Indiana, to give up eighteen threes like
they did, Yes, it's no. This is not a team
I want anything to do with. Philadelphia could very well
be an interesting bet looking into the future as well,
now that they're healthy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Philadelphia obviously wants to get into the top six,
avoid the playing ternment. I believe there a are on
the wrong side of the tie breaker with Atlanta. I
think I think they got it. I think they were
swept in the season series by Atlanta. Joe, correct me
if I'm wrong. We were talking about six they were
swept by the Hawks, Okay, I wanted to make sure.
I thought I said that earlier today. So look, they've
got every reason to care Phildelphia. Miami has every recent
care but look, wins of change. You mentioned the Sixers
all of a sudden at the right time, Miami. This
is a horrible, horrible spot for Miami. I mean, I
would like to say they bounce back from an outright
losses an eight and a half point favorite to Indiana
the game you brought up. But this is the third
game in four days. Yeah for Miami if one just
once in their last eight games. Overall, it's going the
wrong way in your neck.
Speaker 3: Of the woods, Joe for the heat.
Speaker 1: Yeah not don't catch a falling knife. It would be
my best bet. Avoid it like at all costs. And
I'm not running to the window to La seventeen and
a half with Cleveland in altitude either.
Speaker 3: No, why died it?
Speaker 2: Bet their team total. But it's one hundred and thirty
and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, it's like you can't do that either. No,
absolutely not.
Speaker 1: All right, we got some major League baseball games here again,
a big card. We'll run down a couple of these.
Do the Marlins go four and oh.
Speaker 3: Against the White Sox?
Speaker 1: I mean, start to see Chris Paddock for Miami at home.
But listen, I think the White Sox they could very
well get one here. I don't know that I trust
the Marlins to rattle all four straight here. Maybe the
White Sox who scored some runs against Milwaukee, they just
couldn't stop Milwaukee from scoring.
Speaker 2: Yes, Davis, don't call me Drew Martin on the mound
for the White Sox. The White Sox were a team
that I expected to improve this year. I thought Miami's
wind total was a little low, but you mentioned three. Yeah,
I mean, I don't want to bet Miami in this
price range. I mean they're up north to minus one forty.
Now that that's not the price range you want to
bet Miami. So that's White Sox are passed for me.
Speaker 1: There playoffs going for the Mets taking on the Cardinals.
I mentioned the Cardinals bullpen being horrific, but they did
score some runs against Tampa. The Mets two and one
lost that game yesterday to the Pirates, but Claire Ops
has actually been pretty good.
Speaker 3: Lay he going for the Cards.
Speaker 1: I feel like an over is in store for this
game with the Mets and Cardinals.
Speaker 3: What do you think? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I think this is the total and if you like
the old, I mean it's juiced at eight and a
half right now, pretty the way the way it's probably
it looks like we might this total might close at
the key number of nine.
Speaker 3: That's what I'm thinking there. Giants and Padres.
Speaker 1: By the way, at Petco, Roupe versus Walker Bueller is
still pitching in Major League Baseball, which is kind of
hard to believe. And he's a pitcher now for the
Padres who listen to Giants. Neither of these teams started
off the season greats. But can the Giants get enough
offense at Petco to overcome what Walker Bueller might might
not give them, which is I don't know, any sort
of lack of runs?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 1: To me, it would be Padres or passed. But what
were you thinking here? It's a coin flip game.
Speaker 2: I actually like the Giants in the first five. This
was This was zen andized best bet on the morning
wager today. The Giants obviously were just did nothing offensively
against the Yankees one in three games. You mentioned Walker
Buehler now pitching for the Padres. Tough break for Walker Ruler,
because you know what team he has pitched the best
against in his career. It would be the Padres. He
can't get to face them, or because he's now he's
now wearing the San Diego uniform. So yeah, I think
the Giants to me, if the offense is to break out,
it's early against Bueller, So let's go first five money line.
It's a relatively cheap price, and it's interesting too, Joe.
The Giants are a favorite first five full game underdog,
so we've got the tie in our You know, if
it's tied after five, we'll.
Speaker 3: Take a push.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I like the Giants to be ahead after
five innings of that game.
Speaker 1: I'll throw one more out there late game tonight, forty
three year old justin Verland are on the mound for
Detroit taking on Soroka.
Speaker 3: Who you know is he? I don't know?
Speaker 1: Is he throwing harder than ninety miles an hour. Kind
of crazy what happened to him after the injury? And
then you know, this guy had with the Braves looked
like he was like a young Verlander, but the injuries,
the surgeries just have not worked out in his favor.
But all indications are Arizona thinks, uh, he's on the
mend here and it could be a good season. But
they're all and three to start the year, Tigers two
and one. How much are we getting from Verlander? It
feels like an over to me.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want to bet on either starter. Is
what it boils down, So I mean, what you're gonna
have here, it's which starter is gonna blow up? And
then you know it goes into the hands of the
respective bullpens. So I don't know. I'm probably staying away.
As a matter of fact, I can tell you I'm
standing this game because look, I just don't like either starter,
and I'm not obviously betting on a team where I
don't like the starting pitcher.
Speaker 1: I agree with you, yep, all right, and one final
one here for best bets tonight, guys.
Speaker 3: Whoops, don't mean to put that one on there. You
don't know how that happened.
Speaker 1: Let me give you some best bets here tonight, guys,
I got one Major League Baseball one, and I'll throw
one out there for you. In the NBA, it's Sunday
Night Baseball, which means it is time to fade those
teams that have to that have to travel no less
after a Sunday night game, and that would mean the
Guardians on the road taking on the Dodgers here tonight,
Mesick versus Tzaki. For the Dodgers, I'm not laying the
run in a head. I don't like laying running a
half with a home team since they only get up
at eight, but I'll lay it in the first five
given the fact that I know they're going to back.
Speaker 3: At least in the bottom of the fifth.
Speaker 1: Ending here, it feels it's a tough spot for the
Guardians here. I think Dodgers jump out early and often
here on the Guardians, who well, didn't score very much
last night either, No.
Speaker 2: And they're lots of Seattle. They didn't do anything offensively.
Look if Chase the latter's not hitting home runs. I
don't love this Guardians lineup at all this year. So
that's that's not a bad jumping.
Speaker 3: No, I like that one.
Speaker 1: I'll give you one final one here in the association.
I'm gonna go to that Atlanta in Celtics game. I
think this total has gotten a little too low here.
They just played a couple of days ago. One oh
nine to one oh two I believe was that score.
But you know that was a whole lot of a
whole lot of Celtics effort on a defensive side.
Speaker 3: Nobody sat out.
Speaker 1: I just don't see the Celtics quid I believe is
also possibly sitting this one out. I could see Atlanta
at home, pushing pace here a little bit, getting some
points on this board. I think up and over with
the Hawks and the Celtics. I think everyone thinks Celtics
automatic under. I think they're gonna be missing some pieces
here tonight, So I don't mind the over in this spot.
Speaker 3: VP.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's the way the market's going as well,
So yeah, I would co sign that as well. But
I think I think I lean maybe Atlanta's team total
over if we think, I mean, if the Hawks are
to win this earlier discussion, if the Hawks are to
prevail here, chances are they don't do so. By you know,
not scoring a ton, so I mean team total here
on the Hawks is sitting at one eleven and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they can get there. Love it.
Speaker 1: There you go, guys, we got some best bets for
you and that'll do it on this Monday edition of
the Best Betting Show Ever.
Speaker 3: Prez I don't know where he's going to be.
Speaker 1: A guy, so I'll have to figure it out there myself,
but I know I'll be here.
Speaker 3: Art de Caesar be here.
Speaker 1: Maybe you catch a BP here again as well, as
We've got plenty going on this week as we get
ready for the final four Major League Baseball and of
course the end to tanking and as sooner rather than
later there, So go check it out, guys.
Speaker 3: Take advantage of.
Speaker 1: The offer there for three days all access trip will
play forty nine bucks VP at his page, a mine
at mine, and make sure you come back and join
us again tomorrow for another edition of the Best Betting
Show Ever BP.
Speaker 3: Well, brother, we'll see you again