Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ, Boston's new radio.
Speaker 2: Dan Ray, the big Kahuna run here. He has the
Speaker 2: holidays off. You know, all the big names, Dude, Gary
Speaker 2: Tangle here and it's always great to fill in for Dad.
Speaker 2: We'll be hanging out with you all week long. Still
Speaker 2: the come of the show. Chris pappas the pride of
Speaker 2: Algonquin High School. He's a big shot of Hollywood man.
Speaker 2: He's a producer and a writer on Gemstones. And we
Speaker 2: continue our series of talking to Boston people who have
Speaker 2: gone to LA and done well. It's amazing. It's amazing
Speaker 2: how many people from Massachusetts and New England, Boston that are
Speaker 2: in show business in LA. It's kind of crazy. And
Speaker 2: I've been on movie set since before and playing various
Speaker 2: roles and somebody will say, oh, you know, they're based
Speaker 2: in Santa Monica and they'll be the first ad or
Speaker 2: one of the camera guys and they're all from Boston
Speaker 2: and they all went West. I mean Ray Donovan, which
Speaker 2: was one of my favorite shows. It's true, folks, a
Speaker 2: lot of Bostonians out there and Chris is one of
Speaker 2: them and he's done really well. Ran a bunch of movies,
Speaker 2: produce a bunch of movies and some stuff. But I'm
Speaker 2: Sandler and working on the Gemstones with Danny McBride, And
Speaker 2: what I'd like to do is talk to people who
Speaker 2: have done well in show business who are local, Like
Speaker 2: talk to my guys Donning Wahlberg the other day, try
Speaker 2: to get him on this week and talk about their
Speaker 2: career path. Michael Maddley joined us from Nashville, New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: We all know the MIC has done really well in
Speaker 2: this area, so that's what we're going to be talking
Speaker 2: about here coming up at ten o'clock. And Alan Lickman
Speaker 2: joins us right now, the professor of history from American University. Alan,
Speaker 2: I'm so happy you're with us. Thank you for coming on.
Speaker 3: This my great pleasure. Uh.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of things I want to talk to
Speaker 2: you about. And I do want to get into the
Speaker 2: presidential predictions because you're certainly known for that coming up.
Speaker 2: But I was I was thinking, you know, about the
Speaker 2: whole presidential thing, and you know, people talk about Kamala Harris,
Speaker 2: and I don't really need to get into whether you
Speaker 2: vote for Trump or Harris or you know, that's your
Speaker 2: business whatever. But like like everybody thinks, like Harris, she's
Speaker 2: got a terrible track record in the eyes of her,
Speaker 2: in the eyes of some okay, but like she could
Speaker 2: still go on to become a great president. And like,
Speaker 2: how many times has somebody gone on to be a
Speaker 2: great president Alan that we thought was gonna stink? It
Speaker 2: happens more than we think, doesn't.
Speaker 3: It happens all the time.
Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 3: One of the most lightly regarded candidates was Ronald Reagan.
Speaker 3: People said, oh my god, he's way too radical, way
Speaker 3: too extreme to be even elected president, much less to
Speaker 3: be a good president. And of course Ronald Reagan today
Speaker 3: is regarded as the iconic Republican president. Harry Truman was
Speaker 3: very lightly regarded in his own time. In fact, every
Speaker 3: single election poll bar Nunn said he would not win
Speaker 3: election on his own in nineteen forty eight, he went
Speaker 3: on to win, not by a hair but by about
Speaker 3: five points. He brought in a Democratic Congress, and today
Speaker 3: is regarded not as a great president, but one of
Speaker 3: the near great presidents.
Speaker 2: Well, my dad always talked about Harry Truman because he's
Speaker 2: my dad. Fought in World War Two. Well, he didn't
Speaker 2: fight in World War two, I need to be careful.
Speaker 2: He was, he was he was state side due to
Speaker 2: a medical issue. But he worked in a hospital state side,
Speaker 2: and he had he had there's a he was a liability,
Speaker 2: so they wouldn't send him overseas. But he talked about Truman.
Speaker 2: Give him hell, Harry and the whole thing. You know,
Speaker 2: do we beat Truman? Remember was that the Chicago Trump
Speaker 2: New York Times, Chicago, I can't remember which paper.
Speaker 3: It was, Congo Daily.
Speaker 2: Chicago News. You know, do we beat Truman?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: And everybody and by the way, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 3: They pulled forty leading pundits in nineteen forty eight, and
Speaker 3: you know how many thought Truman would win.
Speaker 2: Zero, right, right right, And so he wins, and then
Speaker 2: of course the bomb on Horosima and he goes down
Speaker 2: in history. Is one of the toughest presidents or you know,
Speaker 2: it also seems to me or the president. It's what
Speaker 2: that particular person had to deal with at the time,
Speaker 2: you know, because great challenges and great moments, for example,
Speaker 2: like Eisenhower. Is Eisenhower considered a great.
Speaker 3: President, Well, no, but he's considered a near great president.
Speaker 3: You know. Theodore Roosevelt was also not considered a great,
Speaker 3: but a near great president, complained, imagine this, I didn't
Speaker 3: have a great war or great national security threat to.
Speaker 2: Right, right, isn't even right? Yes, I mean he didn't
Speaker 2: have that big issue. That's the thing with Ike. I
Speaker 2: mean everybody remembers Ike from d Day, of course, But
Speaker 2: like the fifties, everything was great. People came home from
Speaker 2: the war. The economy was going great. Like my parents,
Speaker 2: they were able to buy a house, people had a
Speaker 2: ca more factories were booming, America's economy was growing great.
Speaker 2: There really wasn't anything for Ike to do, was there.
Speaker 3: Well? You know, Ike, because he was a social right
Speaker 3: really understood the horrors of war. And I think, you know,
Speaker 3: the best thing that came out of the Eisenhower years
Speaker 3: was he avoided foolish wars, including avoiding the pressure to
Speaker 3: intervene militarily on the side of the French, the French
Speaker 3: colonialists in Vietnam. He diffused the conflict between Egypt on
Speaker 3: the one hand, and Israel, France and Britain on the
Speaker 3: other hand without getting America involved. And he was a
Speaker 3: moderate president, you know, who kind of bridged the gap
Speaker 3: between New Deal Democrats and the Joseph McCarthy wing of
Speaker 3: the Republican Party.
Speaker 2: Alan Nickman is our guest professor of history at American University.
Speaker 2: You've used the term near great and great. So what
Speaker 2: is a near great president and what is a great president?
Speaker 3: Well, a great president is a president, as I've said,
Speaker 3: who's led us through enormous challenges. And the great presidents
Speaker 3: pretty much authorities agreed. There were three of them. George Washington,
Speaker 3: who led us through the crisis of the founding of
Speaker 3: the Republic when it was by no means secure that
Speaker 3: the Republic would survive. Abraham Lincoln, who led us through
Speaker 3: the Civil War, And Franklin Roosevelt, who led us through
Speaker 3: the Great Depression and World War Two?
Speaker 2: Right? Was Roosevelt before Roosevelt was elected? I mean, and
Speaker 2: that was before term limits.
Speaker 3: Correct, Yes, term limits did not come in until the
Speaker 3: nineteen fifties.
Speaker 2: Right, So he served four terms. I believe was Roosevelt.
Speaker 3: First president to serve more than two.
Speaker 2: Served more than two? Well, I mean, was he considered,
Speaker 2: was he anticipated to be a great leader?
Speaker 3: Not necessarily? You know, there are a lot of doubts
Speaker 3: about him, because of course he had suffered about with polio. Right,
Speaker 3: you know, today we would say he was disabled, but
Speaker 3: in those days they called him a cripple. It was
Speaker 3: very different. You know, there was a lot of stigma attached,
Speaker 3: and there were those who were worried that he had
Speaker 3: the stamina and the good health to be a great president.
Speaker 3: And he fooled them all but completely.
Speaker 2: How big of a role did his wife play in
Speaker 2: all of this, because I don't know if it's fact
Speaker 2: or myth that during his fourth term I've heard stories
Speaker 2: and maybe she was running the country or that I mean,
Speaker 2: is that hyperbole? Set me straight?
Speaker 3: That's hyperbole. That was more applicable to Woodrow Wilson after
Speaker 3: his strokes. And Franklin Roosevelt barely served, you know, just
Speaker 3: a few months of his fourth term. He died in April,
Speaker 3: right nineteen forty five.
Speaker 2: Fourth and give him how Harry came in, you know,
Speaker 2: in Massachusetts.
Speaker 3: When Harry came in, served almost an tire full term right.
Speaker 2: Right here in Massachusetts. Obviously, I mean, everybody is very
Speaker 2: you know Kennedy country, if you will, now, I wanted
Speaker 2: to ask you about John F. Kennedy. Obviously we all
Speaker 2: know the tragedy involved there. He was not considered the
Speaker 2: star of the family. His older brother was who was
Speaker 2: killed in the wild Kennedy, Yes, Joe ed So his
Speaker 2: older brother was being groomed to be president. And as
Speaker 2: I remember with John and as I've read, you know,
Speaker 2: he was kind of like like to have a good time,
Speaker 2: which you know, rumors say that he did in the
Speaker 2: oval office, but when he was president, but he liked
Speaker 2: to have a good time. Maybe he was the party guy.
Speaker 2: Maybe he wasn't as serious as his older brother. How
Speaker 2: did he do when yeah, he was here, was alive,
Speaker 2: how did he do?
Speaker 3: You know? He was lightly regarded as a senator, right,
Speaker 3: you know, he wasn't a great senator, unlike later his
Speaker 3: brother Ted Kennedy of course that became president, but was
Speaker 3: a great senator. He was pretty lightly regarded, but he
Speaker 3: rose to the occasion. As President of the United States,
Speaker 3: he steered us through one of the most perilous crises
Speaker 3: in the history of the world, the Cuban missile crisis,
Speaker 3: that easily easily could have led to nuclear war, but
Speaker 3: for Kennedy's leadership. That also changed his outlook to the world,
Speaker 3: which he announced at my university in his famous commencement
Speaker 3: speech at American University that led directly to the most
Speaker 3: important treaty in the history of the world, the nuclear
Speaker 3: test span treaty that stopped us from poisoning our oceans,
Speaker 3: our atmosphere, and our soil. And by the way, my
Speaker 3: co developer of the Keys to the White House, Vladimir
Speaker 3: kylis Borack, was a member of the Soviet delegation that
Speaker 3: came to Washington back then and negotiated the treaty.
Speaker 2: I do want to get to that because I was
Speaker 2: I was reading up on your methodology. I saw that
Speaker 2: which was very, very very interesting. We've got I've got
Speaker 2: some more presidents, and if I don't mention a particular president,
Speaker 2: please bring it up and we will get to the
Speaker 2: topic of Trump and Kamala. Vice President Harrison.
Speaker 3: I don't have a prediction yet. I just want to
Speaker 3: warn you. I think I mentioned that in my email.
Speaker 2: That's fine, I can't I can't get you. You don't
Speaker 2: want to shoot from the hip. I'm kidding. I'm kidding.
Speaker 3: Oh my god. I've been doing this for forty years,
Speaker 3: and you know my hip is Christine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, Alan, But I do want to ask you
Speaker 2: about the and we'll go over the thirteen questions that
Speaker 2: I read too and your methodology with that. I do
Speaker 2: want to get into that, but I want to continue
Speaker 2: the conversation about presidents who we didn't expect a lot
Speaker 2: from and they came through. Alan Lickman is our guest
Speaker 2: professor of history at American University in Washington on WBC's
Speaker 2: Night Side.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan ray Live from the Window World
Speaker 1: Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: Gary tag Away for Dan Raig tonight here on WBZ
Speaker 2: Alan Lickman, our guest professor of history from American University,
Speaker 2: talking about presidents and those who have exceeded expectations. We
Speaker 2: will also get into his methodology in the success he's
Speaker 2: had in predicting the president's or winners the last ten
Speaker 2: goal rounds. I want to get back to Reagan for
Speaker 2: a minute because it's so interesting when you mentioned Ronald
Speaker 2: Reagan and how he's considered to be the great Republican
Speaker 2: president because things have go gone so far to the
Speaker 2: right right now. I mean, if Reagan was running today,
Speaker 2: he'd be a moderate, correct.
Speaker 3: He'd be outside the current MAGA mainstream of the Republican Party. Right.
Speaker 3: You know, they no longer talk about being Reagan Republicans.
Speaker 3: They're now Trump Republicans, which is enough like being a
Speaker 3: Reagan Republican. Remember, Reagan was, you know, very aggressive in
Speaker 3: promoting American interests and projecting our power abroad and defending
Speaker 3: and promoting democracy. He was the guy who called the
Speaker 3: Soviet Union ego empire, that everything has power to try
Speaker 3: to bring down the Soviet Union, which did happen under
Speaker 3: his successor, George H. W. Bush. And he avoided social
Speaker 3: issues like abortion or school prayer. You know, he was
Speaker 3: Ronald Reagan had some very strong commitments. They were two
Speaker 3: conservative economics, tax cuts and deregulation and people, and they
Speaker 3: went to democracy around the world. And the third thing
Speaker 3: that people don't understand is he was committed to ending
Speaker 3: a scourge of nuclear weapons. He and Gorbachev came within
Speaker 3: an inch of a treaty banning offensive nuclear weapons, and
Speaker 3: it was the military establishments on both sawdi really killed it.
Speaker 3: But Reagan did have the extraordinary accomplishment of the Intermediate
Speaker 3: Nuclear Forces Treaty, which got rid of those missiles in
Speaker 3: Europe which could reach their target in a few minutes.
Speaker 2: Well, what I always said about Reagan, because as a
Speaker 2: member of the Screen Actors Guild in nineteen sixty he
Speaker 2: was for the working man for the working person, where
Speaker 2: he was the head of the union, and he got
Speaker 2: one great deal for the actors that has existed for
Speaker 2: a long time. So while people always thought of Reagan
Speaker 2: as sort of pro management, there was a time where
Speaker 2: he was pro labor.
Speaker 3: He started out as a Rose Franklin Roosevelt Democrat. Now
Speaker 3: he says what pushed him to the right was encountering
Speaker 3: communist opposition in the unions. But he made quite an
Speaker 3: odyssey in his political ideology.
Speaker 2: Do you think Reagan was unfairly criticized for his intelligence?
Speaker 3: Absolutely, you know, if you look at his radio broadcast,
Speaker 3: some of his writings, he was much sharper than people
Speaker 3: made him out to be. He wasn't just this kind
Speaker 3: of simpleton who was led by the nose by his staff,
Speaker 3: not at all. I'd like to mention one other surprising president,
Speaker 3: maybe in some ways, the most surprising president, someone you
Speaker 3: would have thought of. It's Chester Allen, author who was
Speaker 3: vice president to James Garfield, who was the collector of
Speaker 3: the customs in New York, considered a party hacked, corrupt,
Speaker 3: and of course he became president when Garfield was assassinated,
Speaker 3: and our incredible shock and surprise. He presided over the
Speaker 3: enactment of the one of the most important pieces of
Speaker 3: domestic reform legislation, the Civil Service Reform Act, the Pendleton
Speaker 3: Act that established the merit system of appointments in the
Speaker 3: federal administrations, something that of course Donald Trump has threatened
Speaker 3: to do away with. But you know, it's absolutely opposite
Speaker 3: of what people thought author represented.
Speaker 2: What do you think it is in that situation that
Speaker 2: the person rises to the occasion that they realize they
Speaker 2: have the most important job in the world.
Speaker 3: I think that's a big part of it. But not
Speaker 3: everyone rises to the occasion. Of course, we've had presidential disasters,
Speaker 3: the worst of which was Andrew Johnson, of course, who
Speaker 3: became president upon the assassination of Abraham Lincoln and everything
Speaker 3: in his power to fraught the integration of the freed
Speaker 3: slaves into American world life, and as a result of that,
Speaker 3: became the first American president to be impeached.
Speaker 2: Do you feel who do you feel he is the
Speaker 2: worst American president?
Speaker 3: Well, he's certainly down on the bottom, you know, with
Speaker 3: James Buchanan, Donald Trump, Franklin Pierce.
Speaker 2: You mentioned Trump. Is there anything good? And I don't
Speaker 2: mean to get political but in his home.
Speaker 3: I don't want to get political. I'm just giving you
Speaker 3: the judgment of historians.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, but but pretty consistent, pretty consistent with Trump, With.
Speaker 3: Trump, with Johnson, with Buchanan, they're all down towards the bottom.
Speaker 2: You know, I brought this name up as a surprise,
Speaker 2: and my wife thought I was nuts. Clinton.
Speaker 3: Clinton, Clinton is a very, very difficult case to analyze.
Speaker 2: I'll come.
Speaker 3: You know, there's not much in the way of huge
Speaker 3: domestic accomplishments like Social Security or the Wagoner Act or
Speaker 3: the Affordable Care Act, or the Civil Rights Act or
Speaker 3: the Voting Rights Act. And you know, he didn't lead
Speaker 3: us through a major ward and then he got involved stupidly,
Speaker 3: you know, incredibly with Monica Lewinsky Sattle. But on the
Speaker 3: other hand, Clinton did preside over peace, tranquility and one
Speaker 3: of the greatest periods of prosperity in American history, and
Speaker 3: was the last president to actually balance the federal budget.
Speaker 2: Well that's what I was going to say, right, He
Speaker 2: balanced the budget, which now seems impossible.
Speaker 3: Oh when they're even close, I mean, yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, we just print more money, that's all. Just
Speaker 2: you know, I wish I had a money machine in
Speaker 2: my base, we just print more money.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: Clinton was extremely likable. I mean that was even with
Speaker 2: the I mean the Monica that's I mean, that's just
Speaker 2: a Travis. But I was totally I was told with
Speaker 2: somebody that worked with Clinton he was the consummate politician.
Speaker 2: Is he remembered everybody's name, everybody did, and very appealed.
Speaker 3: I know him, I know him fairly well and very
Speaker 3: appealing personally. But a womanizer? Can I tell you?
Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, well hey, let me ask you, and
Speaker 2: maybe putting on your spot, is there some connection between
Speaker 2: political power and the need to be a womanizer?
Speaker 3: Oh? Absolutely, you know Henry Kissinger, not exactly. You know,
Speaker 3: A Rock Hudson in his looks said, you know, power
Speaker 3: is the ultimate aphrodisiac. And you know, there is certainly
Speaker 3: seems to be a strong correlation between these men of
Speaker 3: power and they're womanizing, just so much of it. You know.
Speaker 3: Maybe the worst was someone we don't want focus on,
Speaker 3: Warren Harding. I did.
Speaker 2: I Yeah, you got me on that one.
Speaker 3: He was such a womanizer that they had to send
Speaker 3: his mistress on a trip around the world so she
Speaker 3: wouldn't embarrass him. In the nineteen twenty campaign, and then
Speaker 3: he continued an affair with named Britain after he was
Speaker 3: president and fathered her child. My god, she sued him.
Speaker 3: Suit didn't go anywhere, but later evidence proved yes it
Speaker 3: was his child. He actually had a rapid response team
Speaker 3: to deal with his many accusations of womanizing. And we've
Speaker 3: discovered these incredibly schemy, explicit letters between himself and his mistress.
Speaker 3: He even named his member. If that can imagine.
Speaker 2: Whoa slow down? I mean, what year was this?
Speaker 3: He was president, He got elected in nineteen twenty and
Speaker 3: died in nineteen twenty three. So this is, you know,
Speaker 3: a long time ago, one hundred years ago.
Speaker 2: Well, so you got to tell us you can't bury
Speaker 2: the lead. What do you call it?
Speaker 3: I know I'm going to I'm not going to get
Speaker 3: in to that, but I will say, come on, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 3: no no. He also said, you know, my marriage is loveless.
Speaker 3: You know, I have no interest in my wife. And
Speaker 3: when he died, there was something who thought his wife
Speaker 3: poisoned him, and she then burned all his official and
Speaker 3: private papers.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I have where do I go now?
Speaker 2: I mean, that is just that's got to be a movie.
Speaker 2: I mean we got to get a scroll. Yeah, oh
Speaker 2: my word.
Speaker 3: Anyway, enough of Well, I want.
Speaker 2: To ask you about the case. So what do you
Speaker 2: think about Kennedy and Maryland? I'm sorry, what do you
Speaker 2: think about Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe?
Speaker 3: I can't I can't confirm or deny, but it certainly fits.
Speaker 2: Well, that's my point is I think. But but we've
Speaker 2: seen it with the reason I asked the question. I've
Speaker 2: seen it in media. Look at the guy that ran Fox, Murdoch,
Speaker 2: not Murdoch, the other guy, Roger Ales. I mean, I mean,
Speaker 2: he was so common. It's so common, it's unbelievable. It's
Speaker 2: the it's power is the aphrodisiac. You're right, And whether
Speaker 2: you're a president of a company or a CEO of
Speaker 2: a corporation, or you're leading you know, you're leading a country,
Speaker 2: or you're leading a.
Speaker 3: Political famous rock star actor.
Speaker 2: I mean Martin Luther King, right, I mean, wasn't Martin
Speaker 2: Luther King a womanizer to supposedly apparently?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 2: You know, so it's like almost.
Speaker 3: Political ideological lines. Yeah, not unique, although recently, unfortunately, there
Speaker 3: has been one group that has been particularly prone to
Speaker 3: scandal and in the most hypocritical way. And that's evangelical Christians.
Speaker 2: I don't get that. I mean, it's so.
Speaker 3: True, it's just amazing.
Speaker 2: It's that's that that that it's and coming up at
Speaker 2: ten o'clock, my friend who's a writer on the Gemstones
Speaker 2: is going to be joining us. Boy, what a what
Speaker 2: a segue there. I have a couple more questions for
Speaker 2: you here, Alan.
Speaker 3: Can you hang on yeah real fast?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, We're gonna take a break the come back.
Speaker 2: I have some more questions for Alan Lickman and also
Speaker 2: find out when he will make his prediction, which he's
Speaker 2: been very good at. It's all coming up next to WBZ.
Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: Okay, talking about President's at exceeded expectations with the presidential
Speaker 2: expert Allen Lookman, professor at American University in Washington, d C.
Speaker 2: I got to ask you Obama was what was what
Speaker 2: was the feeling when he was elected? Because he didn't
Speaker 2: how long was he in Congress? Like a term two?
Speaker 3: He was in the Senate just barely just too yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean year or two came out of nowhere when
Speaker 3: he made his famous two thousand and four election, not
Speaker 3: an election, but convey speech that all of a sudden
Speaker 3: took this unknown guy who was a state senator from
Speaker 3: Illinois and elevated him into a national candidate. And that
Speaker 3: was right here in your show, is in PG.
Speaker 2: Is now Heck, no, don't worry about it.
Speaker 3: I'll give you the names if you want.
Speaker 2: Sure, go ahead. Let her rip and.
Speaker 3: Her private part Missus Powderson, Warren Harding's letters.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I don't imagine. No, I can't, I can't.
Speaker 3: Nobody knows this but me.
Speaker 2: Those are the types of things you learned when Gary
Speaker 2: Tangway feels in for Dan Ray on Nightside. No, my
Speaker 2: wife was at the convention here in Boston when Obama spoke,
Speaker 2: and she called me right away and she said, I
Speaker 2: just saw the next rock star in the Democratic Party.
Speaker 3: Your wife is very smart. All right, we have limited time.
Speaker 2: Are you telling me to wrap it up?
Speaker 3: All right? Development of the Keys anyway?
Speaker 2: Oh, that's right, you're right, you're right, you're right. I'm
Speaker 2: going to ask you about one more guy, because I
Speaker 2: think this is my guy that does not get enough credit.
Speaker 2: Is Gerald Ford.
Speaker 3: Hey, you know Gerald Ford gets a lot of bad raps.
Speaker 3: You know, he's supposedly the stumble bumb who was tripping.
Speaker 3: He was the best athlete probably ever to hold the president.
Speaker 3: I believe he was an All American linement at the
Speaker 3: University of Michigan. Yes, and he did. You know, he
Speaker 3: wasn't a great or near great president, but he wasn't
Speaker 3: nearly as bad. You know, what he did was an
Speaker 3: enormous service to the country. I hate to say this
Speaker 3: because I'm no Richard Nixon fan, but pardoning Richard Nixon
Speaker 3: was the right thing to do because otherwise his presidency
Speaker 3: would have been completely consumed by the trials of Richard Nixon,
Speaker 3: who was gone. He had no power, you know, he
Speaker 3: had already resigned. And it was also important for starting
Speaker 3: us down the road and some very important deregulations.
Speaker 2: He had to steady the ship. Yes, okay, so let's
Speaker 2: get to the thirteen keys. Nine out of the last
Speaker 2: ten elections. You have nailed it, with Gore being the
Speaker 2: rare exception, so you could be the only exception. We
Speaker 2: could argue there, So run that down, argue what's that?
Speaker 3: I think I was right. You can check out my
Speaker 3: report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. Still
Speaker 3: on the website that proved the wrong person was elected
Speaker 3: President Florida screwed up, go should have won. But we're
Speaker 3: not going to relitigate that now.
Speaker 2: No, we're not. So how do you? When will you
Speaker 2: make your prediction on this election? And just tell us
Speaker 2: about your in.
Speaker 3: A week, within a week.
Speaker 2: Within a week, and what's your process.
Speaker 3: The thirteen keys are different from the pundits, which have
Speaker 3: no scientific basis, and the pulsters, which produce snapshots not predictions.
Speaker 3: They're based on how elections really work, based on voters
Speaker 3: voting up or down, on the strength and performance of
Speaker 3: the White House Party. They're thirteen key factors, and if
Speaker 3: six or more go against the White House Party, they're
Speaker 3: predicted losers. Otherwise they're predicted winners. They're things like midterm elections,
Speaker 3: incumbency party, contests for the incumbent party, third party, short
Speaker 3: and long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign
Speaker 3: successes and failures, and only two keys relate to the candidates,
Speaker 3: and they're very high threshold keys.
Speaker 2: When I read the keys, I thought, okay, this makes sense,
Speaker 2: and a lot of it's just your common sense exactly.
Speaker 3: They're intuitive like these complicated you know, political science models
Speaker 3: that no one can understand.
Speaker 2: Well, right, you know you said, it's simply a lot
Speaker 2: of it has to do with the economy. You know,
Speaker 2: it's the economy stupid.
Speaker 3: That's part of it. Yeah, that's all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, because people vote with their pocketbook.
Speaker 3: But not always. You know, Hillary Clinton should have won
Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen. It was a good economy pubet. Humphrey
Speaker 3: should have won in nineteen sixty eight. It was one
Speaker 3: of the greatest economies ever had the nineteen sixties. So
Speaker 3: not always.
Speaker 2: The thing with Hillary is why I have more indicators
Speaker 2: and you're smart. The thing with Hillary is, and even
Speaker 2: some women, she just wasn't likable, which bring in the
Speaker 2: eyes of some.
Speaker 3: I mean, I voted for her, but so Richard Nixon
Speaker 3: was likable when he won in nineteen sixty eight and
Speaker 3: nineteen seventy two. It was one of the most unlikable
Speaker 3: political figures ever had. Humphrey was a very likable guy,
Speaker 3: very affable.
Speaker 2: I think it's a tougher I think it because I
Speaker 2: think the hardest thing for women, I think is to
Speaker 2: be tough, and like I think women get a bad rat.
Speaker 2: I think it's a tough challenge for a woman. I
Speaker 2: think it's easier for a man to be in a
Speaker 2: position of power than a woman because a woman has
Speaker 2: to check.
Speaker 3: I agree with that, but again, my system, what's at
Speaker 3: the strength and performance of the White House Party. That's
Speaker 3: why I was able to pick Trump in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 3: which did not make me popular in ninety percent plus
Speaker 3: Democratic Washington d C. I'm teach at AU American University.
Speaker 3: But I did get a letter of congratulations which said congrats, profess,
Speaker 3: a good call and a big sharpie letters signed Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, there you go. You can put that on the
Speaker 2: wall if you will.
Speaker 3: It's on my wall right here in my study.
Speaker 2: I have to ask you one final question because I'm
Speaker 2: going to get into this in a little bit. Vice
Speaker 2: President Harris, and I think she's extremely likable. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's going to come down to the issues. I
Speaker 2: just think that if you don't like Trump, you're going
Speaker 2: to vote for her. And I think she played it
Speaker 2: safe with the CNN interview, and if she continues to
Speaker 2: play it safe, that's our best shot.
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with you, but again, my system, and
Speaker 3: you know I'll have my prediction within a week, does
Speaker 3: not turn on the events of the campaign. That's why
Speaker 3: I was able to predict reagan re election in nineteen
Speaker 3: eighty four, nineteen eighty two, Obama's reelection in twenty ten,
Speaker 3: the defeat of Republicans in two thousand and eight in
Speaker 3: two thousand and six before I even knew who the
Speaker 3: candidates were.
Speaker 2: Interesting stuff. Well, we look forward to it, Alan, We
Speaker 2: will be watching. I assume you will announce this via
Speaker 2: social media.
Speaker 3: Yes, and it should also come out in the New York.
Speaker 2: Times, okay, Alan.
Speaker 3: And we're doing a video. And the video shows I'm
Speaker 3: not just history nerd. It features my gold medal win
Speaker 3: in the Maryland Senior Olympics for the eight hundred meter
Speaker 3: dash and my nineteen eighty one number one quis show
Speaker 3: win on tic Tac dough.
Speaker 2: I saw that too, but let's not forget about it
Speaker 2: says that you're a former three thousand meters steeplechase champion.
Speaker 3: Yes i am. I was the sub Submasters North American
Speaker 3: three thousand meters steeplechase champion, the race designed for horses
Speaker 3: run by people.
Speaker 2: He's a man for all seasons. Alan Lickman a pleasure
Speaker 2: professor of history at American University, will be looking for
Speaker 2: your prediction to the White House within a week.
Speaker 3: Take care, Thanks for the interview.
Speaker 2: Thanks for coming on. Very interesting stuff, great guy, true character,
Speaker 2: very obviously a very smart man. We're going to get
Speaker 2: into some TV. We're going to get into the Gemstones,
Speaker 2: We're going to get into a local guy who's done
Speaker 2: good in Hollywood. Chris Pappis, writer, director, producer, joins us.
Speaker 2: Coming up at ten o'clock here on.
Speaker 1: WBZ Now back to Dan Way Live from the Window
Speaker 1: World night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: Hey, welcome back, Gary Tank Waine for Dan roy tonight
Speaker 2: allan Lickman, always a great guest, very interesting guy. In
Speaker 2: a week, he will have his prediction for the White House,
Speaker 2: whether it be Trump or whether it be Vice President Kamala.
Speaker 2: Harris could be interesting to see his thirteen Keys to
Speaker 2: the White House. And as he mentioned, a lot of
Speaker 2: it's just common sense, the economy, whether the country is
Speaker 2: at war, who's controlling the House, who's controlling the Senate.
Speaker 2: And I did watch the Harris interview on CNN with
Speaker 2: Dana Bash and she didn't screw it up. That's kind
Speaker 2: of the way I look at it. She talked about
Speaker 2: a four thousand dollars tax credit for families, promoting the
Speaker 2: middle promoting the middle class. Now, I did not watch
Speaker 2: it live. I mean, who does anybody watch anything live anymore?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 2: You know, so I what, But people who did watch
Speaker 2: it live said that they felt like she didn't really
Speaker 2: say anything. She didn't go out on a limb. Obviously,
Speaker 2: she's gonna be for the middle class. She's gonna be
Speaker 2: for the middle class. She's talking about young families. She's
Speaker 2: talking about young family and it is so expensive now,
Speaker 2: I mean, things are out of control. I mean the
Speaker 2: price talking about groceries, the price for food, so for
Speaker 2: it's just things that we have taken for granted. How
Speaker 2: families are gonna need help with that? So that seems
Speaker 2: to be pretty democratic. That seems to be kind of
Speaker 2: right along the party line that you would expect. I
Speaker 2: didn't think. I don't look at that. For Vice President
Speaker 2: Harris to come out and say, you know, families with
Speaker 2: young children are going to get a fourth one thousand
Speaker 2: dollars tax credit so they can afford better food. I
Speaker 2: don't look at that as communism, you know, or some
Speaker 2: far radical left idea at all. I look at that
Speaker 2: as compassion call me crazy. I just think it's just
Speaker 2: having compassion. That's what That is. The one thing I
Speaker 2: do think she needs to work on, though. She needs
Speaker 2: to be more concise. It's a sink when she speaks.
Speaker 2: She wanders still a little bit. And that's something that
Speaker 2: President Obama. Obama was very good at. That's something that
Speaker 2: Trump is good at. When Trump says something, he says
Speaker 2: it with confidence. He says it clearly. It may be insane,
Speaker 2: it may be crazy. It may be saying you can
Speaker 2: cure the pandemic with bleach, but he says it clearly,
Speaker 2: and he sells it. He sells it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: You may not be buying, but there are a lot
Speaker 2: of people that are a lot of people are buying it.
Speaker 2: She waffles a little bit sometimes it really is. I
Speaker 2: gotta be honest with you folks. Quite often it's the
Speaker 2: way you say it. It's how you say it as
Speaker 2: opposed to what you say, and that's that's that's nuts.
Speaker 2: But take it from a guy that's been in the
Speaker 2: media thirty years. There's a lot of truth in that.
Speaker 2: She needs to get a lot of She needs to
Speaker 2: get smoother in that regard. I think that's what needs
Speaker 2: to happen there, but people, you know. And another thing
Speaker 2: she said in the interview that well, there's only like
Speaker 2: sixty eight days left in the election. Everybody keeps talking
Speaker 2: about Oh, the question, I'm sorry, let me back up
Speaker 2: speaking of it, speaking clear clearly. The question was asked
Speaker 2: by Dana Bash. She said, you know, are you looking
Speaker 2: at would you have a Republican in your cabinet? And
Speaker 2: she said yes, And she asked Vice President Harris, are
Speaker 2: you looking at names? Are you thinking about who would
Speaker 2: be in your cabinet? And so of course she goes, oh, no,
Speaker 2: I have to worry about the election. There's only sixty
Speaker 2: something days left. And maybe my math is off, but
Speaker 2: I think I'm in the ballpark. It's a bunch of
Speaker 2: crap when people talk about there's only so much time left.
Speaker 2: And when they were talking about replacing Joe Biden with her,
Speaker 2: they had to do it sooner than later, and you
Speaker 2: had to do it before the convention. No, you don't
Speaker 2: was in such an immediate society. I am convinced that
Speaker 2: someone could jump into the presidential race now and if
Speaker 2: they had the right message win now. It's obviously it's
Speaker 2: not going to happen because the Democrats and the Republicans
Speaker 2: have their person. But for the sake of this argument,
Speaker 2: everything is so immediate.
Speaker 3: It is.
Speaker 2: I mean, even as tragic as the attempt on President
Speaker 2: Trump's life was, people have forgotten about it. And you
Speaker 2: should not. And I'm not a Trump person, I'm not
Speaker 2: a Trump guy, but you should not forget about that.
Speaker 2: The person almost lost his life, which would have been
Speaker 2: absolute hell and a disaster. But with the news cycle
Speaker 2: now it's like, what have you done for me in
Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours? What have you done for
Speaker 2: I just think that's the way it is, you know,
Speaker 2: And when it comes to and one of the reasons
Speaker 2: I wanted to talk down on Lickman is when it
Speaker 2: comes to evaluating someone's vice presidency, I mean, really, look
Speaker 2: the one thing about Harris, she should have gone to
Speaker 2: the border. I don't understand why she didn't. It would
Speaker 2: have been a photo op. She could have gone down
Speaker 2: there and represented Joe. But I don't understand why she didn't.
Speaker 2: And I don't think it's her call, to be quite
Speaker 2: honest with you, I think the administration would have should
Speaker 2: have made the call. We said, listen, Vice President Harris
Speaker 2: would want you to go on the border photo. Oh
Speaker 2: blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. And in the
Speaker 2: interview with Bash, she did say, look, Trump's people negated
Speaker 2: the bipartisan deal they had to improve things at the border.
Speaker 2: They did. Look, the border is just the elephant in
Speaker 2: the room. Is the way I see it is either
Speaker 2: you shut it down or you don't. And people want
Speaker 2: to look at America as the land of opportunity, where
Speaker 2: you know, my grandparents came from My great grandparents came
Speaker 2: from Canada and Prince Edward Island and you know before that, Ireland,
Speaker 2: And well it's not the same anymore. It's not the
Speaker 2: same situation. Immigration needs to be controlled and if they
Speaker 2: wanted to, if they wanted to control it, to control it.
Speaker 2: Trump didn't want this administration to control it because he
Speaker 2: wanted to use it as a political blag. He didn't
Speaker 2: want them to come up with a solution. He wants
Speaker 2: to come up with a solution. No, no, no, that's mine.
Speaker 2: Wait for me. And it's not as simple as build
Speaker 2: a wall. But I still think that it's attainable and
Speaker 2: you can do it, and for whatever reason, neither party
Speaker 2: has done it. You can control immigration, you can control
Speaker 2: the boarder. If this is going to be cliche, but
Speaker 2: it's true. If you can put a person on the moon,
Speaker 2: you can do it. And I know it's big, I
Speaker 2: know there's a lot of land, and I know it's
Speaker 2: going to cost money. But you can do it. You
Speaker 2: can do it. I just don't think either party wants
Speaker 2: to do it because they like to use it for
Speaker 2: political purposes. That's what they do. They want to use
Speaker 2: it for political purposes. It drives me nuts. You can
Speaker 2: have controlled immigration, and I understand, I'm talking thousands of miles,
Speaker 2: We're talking a lot of construction. We're talking people. Power
Speaker 2: creates jobs. You want to create jobs while you're president.
Speaker 2: Let's control the border. Let's get a system where people
Speaker 2: can come into this country and work and look for
Speaker 2: a new life without having to cross a river with
Speaker 2: their three kids with the risk of drowning. It can
Speaker 2: be done. I just don't think the powers will be wanted.
Speaker 2: That's what Gary Tanglis is here at nine fifty seven
Speaker 2: on Labor Day. Have you seen the Righteous Jemstones? Dynna
Speaker 2: McBride is hilarious, John Goodman is great, and that there
Speaker 2: are so many great actors in that series. And one
Speaker 2: of the reasons is so good is a guy right
Speaker 2: here from Massachusetts has taken part of it. He's my buddy,
Speaker 2: Chris Pappas. And we continue our theme of Bostonians who
Speaker 2: have done well in Hollywood. That's all coming up next
Speaker 2: to ten o'clock right here on WBZ Boston News Radio,