Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody?
Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of Prophet Picks. If you are new,
we always start this show by being transparent. Didn't have
any shows so far this week, but yesterday was good.
Speaker 1: I had the.
Speaker 2: Over in the Tigers game and yeah, just want to know,
easy day, So we'll see if we can parlay that
end of today. You know, it's good to be back
with you. We do have some WNBA to talk about today.
But how's everything been for you lately?
Speaker 3: Things have been good ski. I did not play yesterday,
but I had a play on the Chiefs team total
over twenty four and a half Monday night, and you
know NFL and knock on wood here six and oh
again this weekend in the NFL, it's been a crazy,
crazy run. I think it's up to somewhere around twenty
four and five last twenty nine now, So doing very
very well in the NFL. To get back into it
today with some WNB. I didn't play the game Sunday,
the game that Las Vegas won pretty big. I turned
out to be a fairly easy bet, but I just
didn't see it clear enough. So we'll see if we
got a clear sight on this one tonight.
Speaker 2: A little bit further recap. I did lose on the
Chiefs on Monday. I will throw that out there. I
was a little bit upset about that. Guy falls down twice,
gets backed up, and walks in. Thanks a lot, Chris Jones,
lazy ass, just sitting there watching him, not even trying. Bro,
even trying for my money.
Speaker 3: Lauren said he wanted to just throw the ball out
of bounds until he looked up and so nobody was
going to tackle him.
Speaker 1: So yeah, hit, that was pathetic, Brom. Looking at Chris Jones,
The whole play was pathetic.
Speaker 2: But he's He's made me a lot of money over
the years. I can't bash him too much. But that
was very, very poor effort. The weekend, though, NFL was good.
We talked about some of that stuff. Probably know Lion
was a winner.
Speaker 1: Well you know what I said with those chargers again,
Oh hell no, no, give me those commanders, buddy, that
was easy. Yeah. NFL was good over the weekend.
Speaker 2: I think the only loser had was Seattle minus three
and a half. But I had a few other winners,
So yeah, I'm feeling good right now. You know, anything
else you want to touch on before we tackle today's games.
Speaker 1: Now, let's get after it.
Speaker 3: We haven't been on for a while. Let's get after it.
Speaker 2: All right, first game up, we know we do the
ladies first around here, it looks like seven eighty three,
seven eighty four Phoenix Mercury heading into Las Vegas to
take on the ass and this one opened up minus
two for Phoenix, seeing pretty much four and a half
everywhere now total opened one sixty five and it looks
like one sixty.
Speaker 1: Three and a half.
Speaker 2: As far as injuries are concerned. I don't see anybody
for either team here, mister Robino. Oh, the Aces are
up two to zero. The Mercury could have stolen that
first game. I don't know too much about the second game,
but they were right there in that first game. However,
that first game, you know, Asia kind of struggle, Jackie struggle.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna get that too often.
Speaker 2: So it was tough for them not to be able
to take advantage of, you know, the star players not
playing well for Vegas and that that first one. But
now you go from Las Vegas, you go back over
to Phoenix. You got that that home crowd behind you,
and we know the situation. It might be the first
time in w NBA that they've had a seven game series.
But if you're an NBA better or fan, you're not
new to this. When the team is down to O
two and they're going back home, it's absolute desperation.
Speaker 1: You cannot go down in the series three.
Speaker 2: Right, So it makes sense why we've seen, you know,
Vegas the favorite the first two games, and we see
Phoenix open a favorite and continue to get bat up.
Speaker 1: I do think Phoenix is more.
Speaker 2: Than capable of winning, and in a situation like this,
you know, maybe even you know, first half, expecting them
to throw that first punch first quarter, first half. I
mean we've seen this before, right, Robino.
Speaker 1: So yeah, from.
Speaker 2: A side perspective, I mean, is that how you're seeing
it or are you looking more at the total?
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?
Speaker 3: Now? I played the side, Ski, but I got there
early and laid three and a half. So the number
has going up, like you say, to four and a half. Now,
in just for some form of context to how odds
makers will shade sense of urgency teams for first half betting,
the Mercury are now in upwards of minus three. I
think there's still as I look here, Ski, there's still
some minus two and a half around for the first half.
If you think they're going to come out and just
right out of the tunnel, be ready to roll here,
I wouldn't put it past them whatsoever. First quarters only
minus one and a half, So any of those I
would support. But I did play full game minus three
and a half. And obviously we play these NBA playoff
games almost the same way. The sense of urgency spot
if you have a good team at home, which I
believe Phoenix is a good team at home backs against
the Wall two at home here. They've been really good
in the playoffs, right, They're on a three and oh
streak against the spread. They've won all three by five
or more. So you're probably you know, by that number,
you're really really you've got a thin margin at minus
four and a half and you know, wins of five plus.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: Those pair of games in Las Vegas, Phoenix actually played
six really good quarters out of eight. It was two
quarters that really got them. But if you take the
other six, Phoenix did outscore the Aces one thirty nine
to one thirty six the fourth quarter of Game one,
the second quarter of Game two, where Phoenix only scored
fifteen to ten points with the difference makers in both
of those games really to lead the Aces to the
two to zero spot. I think that let's use some
NBA references again that we would use in the playoffs
where role players play better at home. Sammy Wickham and
do Wanta Bonner better play better at home because they
were horrendous in those first two games. Throw some numbers
out there for you. Bonner, who was a really good
scorer and clutch bench player for them to end the
regular season five of eighteen from the floor twenty seven
point eight percent, only two of nine from three, and
Sammy Wickham's on the floor to make threes. She's two
of ten twenty percent from distance. So those two at
home specifically need to play better. They did do that
in the New York series when they were at home.
They played a lot better on the on the Phoenix
home floor, averaging seventeen and a half per game combined.
The starters have been doing their job, Sobbily was good
in game one, good in game two. Alyssa Thomas, I
don't know if the hand bothered her in Game two
a little bit maybe, but she's had a day off.
Not i'd expect at to be really good here as well.
Claire Copper too. Feel like they're on the right side here.
And I do think that the bench will come through.
You know, it was the bench the game that you
talked about earlier where Asia and Jackie Young didn't play well.
How about the bench and that game for Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: So and Jewel right, Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the two combined they lit it up in that game.
So I think that could happen here for Phoenix. Like
you say, going down three, you basically are toast at
that point. So I played Phoenix full game minus three
and a half. Like I say, dinner margin if you're
gonna lay four and a half late ass end of
the line, but still doable for Phoenix in a lot
of different situations here. Like you mentioned first quarter at
first half possibilities too.
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. I like it. I
like it.
Speaker 2: We didn't talk really about the total so far, but
it did drop from one to sixty five down to
one sixty three and a half.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll ask you this.
Speaker 2: You know, when you think of the Mercury, what kind
of team like are Are they more of a defensive
team or offensive team?
Speaker 3: Well, it's funny because I know you pointed this out
when we talked about Game one in the playoffs the Mercury,
where the number one defensive team coming in and the
Aces were the number one offensive team, and certainly offense
got the better of defense in the first two. I
kind of view Phoenix as a combination. I've said before,
and I feel like when they shoot threes, they're very,
very tough when they make threes, and just to give
it the number Game two, five of twenty eight from
three point range, that's not going to do it for Phoenix.
But I do think they're kind of a combination because
they can play with pace and score in bunches, and
they actually had a lead in Game one. But for
where the Aces are concerned, I really view them as
more of an offensive team. Being defensive, they play it
in spurts, kind of when Becky gets mad, they'll tighten up,
but they can be had for you know, eighty five
on any given nights. So yeah, that's how I view Phoenix.
I view Phoenix is kind of a combination team offense
and defense.
Speaker 2: I agree with your assessment. I think after you know,
you've seen the Aces have a lot of success. They
score damn near ninety points in both games, and you're
the number one defense.
Speaker 1: I mean that has to ring an alarm, you know.
Speaker 2: I think that's a side that they'll be focused on today,
especially being back at home. So I would think I
agree with the market on both the side and the
total in this game.
Speaker 1: Anything else before we moved along to some baseball.
Speaker 3: No, I like that we both see it the same
way here, so we can move on.
Speaker 2: Shout out to my guy, U Kapper says, with Upski
and Vino and Casey, I appreciate you, she says background
fire Ski man, I appreciate it because, well, first of all,
let me see if I could do this just real quick.
You can see a little bit more real quick. But anyway,
I took my time doing this yesterday, and you can
see this, Casey, everybody can see this right here.
Speaker 1: There's a little mark right here.
Speaker 2: It's trying to set something up, thinking falling, busting me
in my nose.
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you guys at least like the backdrop,
it was not all for nothing. All right, let's keep
it going out here.
Speaker 2: We got we got a little baseball to talk about.
It's playoffs there too, so we'll go Brewers and Cubs.
We're only gonna talk about two out of the four games.
We're not gonna do too much on the diamond, but
you do have.
Speaker 1: The Cubs as the slight favorite here.
Speaker 2: Total did open, I believe seven came down to about
six and a half.
Speaker 1: And this matchup you have.
Speaker 2: Quinn Priester versus James and Talian Priester. He looks like
he's been pretty good like the last five starts, going
about four point eight innings, only allowing one point four
runs one point two earned runs. A man, I know
I haven't liked him that much over the years, but
he's pitching damn good right now. Last five starts for him,
four point twenty seven innings pitch not even giving up
a run, zero point six runs. So I'm looking at
this one here, Rovino, I think these are two of
the better bullpens and baseball at least they're playing well
right now. And these two pitchers and really good rhythm,
really good for him. You got some win blowing in
a little bit. It was in a double digit number.
This is all lining up to me far and under.
Give me that six and a half under at even money,
That's what I'm liking here.
Speaker 3: Rob.
Speaker 1: You know what about you? You're muted. We can't hear you.
You know we can't hear you.
Speaker 3: I gotcha, I'm said. I think the dog was mad
at something against so I muted for a second. I
played tie on first five innings here, Like you say, Ski,
the numbers have been terrific. Last twenty three innings only
two were and runs allowed. Cubs in that desperation spot
here really don't want to trust bullpens as we watch
these games go by. Even as good as the La
Dodgers have been, the eighth inning has been a nightmare
for them as well. So I think that I'd rather
stick with the starter here. Quinn Priester, It's an interesting story.
The Brewers won nineteen games in a row that he
started this year, wow, and then finally in his last
game of the regular season, he got hit pretty good,
and you just wonder if that doesn't carry over here
road playoff game young pitcher where like you say, tie On,
more veteran and has been dominant as of late. So
I think if I just match those two uphead to head,
I trust the Cubs offense to get me enough to
get through five innings. The price is pretty pretty good here.
You get a plus price with the Cubs. So that's
the way I looked the desperate team at home with
what I consider at this point to be the the
more capable picture.
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way, all right, good stuff on that.
Speaker 2: I think we have some good angles in that game.
And let's talk about one more here before we get
out of here for the day. That's gonna be your
negative Woods and my negative Woods, Billy's and Dodgers. We
have Aaron Nola versus Yamamoto and.
Speaker 1: My bad Let me just pull this up. I mean,
I do know, you know I'm.
Speaker 2: A Dodger fan, and even if I don't follow a
four year long I know I think enough from Yamamoto
where that's one of the pictures that I trust him,
and seeing how Dave Rodgers has used them or Dave
Roberts has used them lately, Like earlier in the year,
from what I was looking at, it looked like he
didn't really trust him, But lately it's either he trusted
him more or he doesn't trust the bullpen. So I
think we'll have an extended you know, how do I
say extended outing from Yamamoto on this one. If you're
one of those people who bets Pitt your outs, I
could see him going over his outs prop for tonight,
and as long as he's out there, I trust him
to hold down this Phillies lineup. For the Phillies, I
think it's gonna be a little bit of you know,
if they see even a little bit of shakiness, you're
getting pulled. But I have faith in and Nola a
little bit. The first time through the lineup at least,
so I was. I was thinking about an underhere, Ravino,
I just haven't gotten there yet. Is there anything else
that catches your eye?
Speaker 3: And Phillies at Dodgers, it's great When you said my
neck of the woods. It made me laugh because the
people here in Philly, I don't think they like my
kind too much. Because I'm a Dodger fan like you.
They come in here and win two against the Phillies,
and I'm a Broncos fan and they come in and
beat the Eagles. So the three day weekend for me
was great. For the people in Philadelphia was not good.
This matchup in particular, there's been nobody better than Yamamoto
as of late. I give you some numbers here last
eight starts fifty three and two thirds innings over eight starts,
one point five to three E zero point seven to
two whip other side hitting just one sixty four against
Yamamoto since the All Star Break. This one absolutely floored Miski.
There have been two hundred and ten played appearances against
Yamamoto since the All Star Break, only three extra base hits.
That's crazy. All three were homers, but only three extra
base hits. The only start he had against Philly this year,
he won six innings, three hits, one run aloud. He
got out of there with a no decision because the
Dodger offense didn't support him well in that game in Philly.
But their offense has been good last ten games, and
it's been good in the playoffs. Dodgers fifty eight runs
in their last ten, twenty seven in the four playoff games.
Aaron Nola eight roads starts this season owen six six
point nine to seven ERA on the road, not really good.
The Phillies first five inning record with Nola on the
hill two five and one. The last four road outings
first five to four Nola have resulted in a one
to seven to nine whip eight point three era, this
feel like you can trust Yamamoda. Now Dave Roberts, I
have trouble trusting because it seems like he's got it
made with the road, with the staff that he has
here in the playoffs. In other words, the bullpen that's
killed them the last month doesn't necessarily have to be
used in these games. We saw him go to Tyler
Glass now a starter in relief. We've seen Rory Sasaki
be the closer in these games. You've got Clayton Kershaw,
another starter that you could use for an ending or two.
And yet last game he insisted on going to Blake
Triman and Alex Vesia and I almost lost that game.
I mean, it got kind of crazy at the end
when he really didn't have to. I don't think that
happens here. Ski. The pitching staff has had a day
of rest for Philly, it'll be all hands on deck.
But Christopher Sanchez, the starter in game one, only three
days rest, I don't know that you could use him,
and you certainly can't use Jesus Lozardo this starter in
game two. Both of those guys threw really well, but
the Dodgers offense against the rest of those pitchers, I
think is in pretty good shape here real quick. One
last thing here about Aaron Nola. He's a lot of
three twenty five on base percentage this year in eighth
five ops. Those are just bad numbers. I like the
Dodgers first half with Iyamamoto. I laid the half of run.
It cost me fifteen cents, But Dodgers minus a half
first five. I think that's a solid play.
Speaker 1: Like it good stuff on that.
Speaker 2: And Mark says he likes Yamamoto over his strikeouts there tonight.
So a lot of different ways to bet this one.
I think if I'm betting that game as of right now,
Dow'm a Moto overs out. Seems like the best way
to go for me. All right, Veno, looks like we
can wrap it up. We're not gonna talk any college
football today. So before we do move it over the
best bets, let's see what we can throw up on
the screen. Are we're still doing Weekend Warrior all right?
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think they're gonna keep doing that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll toss that up there. Weekend Warrior.
Speaker 2: It allows you to get every football play from Andy
KEAVI of your choice for only forty nine dollars five
percent are included.
Speaker 1: You get Monday Night football as well. And for myself,
I have.
Speaker 2: To say this year this season on four and oh
on my top plays in the NFL, and I already
have one up and available, so it would be included
if you got this Weekend Warrior past Veno. I know
football has been good for you. Anything you want to
touch on for football there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick, Like I said, Skei, I think the
numbers bear out that at wager talk on top of
the heap so far in NFL handicapping. But I do
know for a fact it's been twenty five or twenty
four and five excuse me, over the last twenty nine plays,
so it's been really really good. Another six in a weekend,
like I said, just for the NFL, forty nine dollars
probably worth it. So once again Weekend Warrior package, I
will throw out one more time here Skeeeks, I haven't
done it in a while. Those of you who are
playing these things seriously every single day, want to be
on top of the lines, want to be on top
of the moves, want to be on top of the injuries.
Go ahead and get a free seven day trial to
odds Logic go over to wagertalk dot com. The Odds
Logic Live odd screen is as good as any in
the business, maybe better than any in the business. So again,
if you're taking it seriously each and every day, and
it's more than just a hobby for you, you probably want
to get on top of that. Give it a seven
day trial. If you like it, you can go ahead
and purchase. If you don't like it, you don't have
to nothing, no obligation with that. Once again, Odds Logic,
go ahead and get your free trial at wager talk
dot com. Free play got you know the games we
talked about. I like a lot here Tonight's ski, but
I'll leave everybody with the Phoenix Murky.
Speaker 1: Well, hold on, I'm bad. There we go.
Speaker 3: I got the better number, so I won't give out
the Mercury as the best bet here. I'll go to
the Cubs with tie on first five innings minus a
half a run plus in the vicinity of you know,
lines vary so much in baseball, but you can find
yourself either taking a dollar fifteen, you can find yourself
taking a dollar twenty five. Go ahead and shop it
the best you can. But I do think the Cubs
at home in this particular situation, will be up by
a run after five, So I'm gonna leave that as
the best bet for this show. Cubs with tie on
first five innings minus half a run.
Speaker 2: Right, Good stuff from mister Robo and for myself. I
will also remind every that I do have a five
percent best bet in the w up for tonight. So far,
I'm twelve and five in the playoffs, and my five
percents h they they've been really good. They've been better
than twelve and five, I'm pretty sure. So if you
would like to be involved with me in a w tonight,
that is how you can do it. My best bet
for the show for today, I'm going to go through
the diamond. I'm gonna go with that first game we
talked about Priester. He's been pitching well. Tan has been
pitching well. Both strong bullpens win blowing in. I think
it's a lower scoring game, so I got I believe
it was plus one oh two for under six and
a half. That will That is what I will leave
for the best bet for the show.
Speaker 1: So I like that.
Speaker 2: We'll start rocking like that with the single one for
the best bets.
Speaker 1: Look, I start. I'm still learned a little something Robbie though,
all right.
Speaker 2: Appreciate you taking the time to come and catch these
games with me, help some of my process. I'm sure
you help everybody else as well. Appreciate everybody in the chat,
good people, good cat and we're all just trying to
help each other cash. Everybody else out there, whether it's Twitch,
x kick, Spotify, Apple, we appreciate you as well. Thursday
Night Football tomorrow, will be back for that and we
will catch you all day. Best of luck on all
your action