Speaker 1: Here it is nine first one to wether forecast gonna
Speaker 1: be a hot and humid day to day, going up
Speaker 1: in ninety four overnight, mostly clouds, isolated rains possible seventy
Speaker 1: one for the loft.
Speaker 2: Possible isolated rain tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Otherwise mostly cloudy with a high of eighty five, cooling
Speaker 1: down to sixty seven overnight. Then Thursday we'll get mostly
Speaker 1: sunny skies in a high of eighty seven seventy four degrees.
Speaker 1: Right now, time for a traffic up to chuck Ingram from.
Speaker 3: The UCUT Tramping Center. Nearly sixty percent of Americans waiting
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Speaker 3: Ingram and fifty five krs the talk station.
Speaker 1: A thirty here fifty five KRCD talk station. It is
Speaker 1: that time of week. I always look forward to it.
Speaker 1: It's time for the Daniel Davis d Die, retired Lieutenant
Speaker 1: Colonel Daniel Davis, offering his thoughts and comments about global
Speaker 1: conflict and gee, Daniel Davis, welcome back.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: It's too bad we have nothing to talk about today
Speaker 1: along those lines.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just just kind of a boring day and nothing.
Speaker 2: A lot of death and destruction. But I mean, other
Speaker 2: than that, there's nothing you want on at all.
Speaker 1: Oh, there may be World War three perhaps, I mean,
Speaker 1: Lord Almighty, I mean, we've got our own folks saying,
Speaker 1: you know that the attack is eminent. Israel's going to
Speaker 1: get attacked any moment in time. We're sitting here in
Speaker 1: the war room. We're talking about strategy. Israel's basically surrounded
Speaker 1: right now. They're getting hit from Syria, they get hit
Speaker 1: by the Huthies, they get hit by the the Hamas
Speaker 1: folks in Gaza. It's just one, you know, they It
Speaker 1: really is kind of a circular attack going on, limited
Speaker 1: as it may be, and terrorist organizations funded by Iran,
Speaker 1: but you know, Ron's a big elephant in the room,
Speaker 1: the the ones behind all this, and now we're talking
Speaker 1: about maybe Iran directly striking Israel itself, adding a whole
Speaker 1: new element and dynamic to this.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think it's important though to look
Speaker 2: at the context, because these things don't come out of nowhere.
Speaker 2: They come out of very specific things, and just prior
Speaker 2: to this, well, actually this back up a little bit,
Speaker 2: because it's important. You had back in April, you had
Speaker 2: Iran had this big, unprecedented three hundred and fifty drone
Speaker 2: missile trike against Israel that the United States, let's see,
Speaker 2: several other countries used their air force to actually knock
Speaker 2: down most of them. The Iron Dome did its work.
Speaker 2: But all of that came as a result of what
Speaker 2: Israel destroyed an Iranian embassy building in another capital city
Speaker 2: of Syria, and that prompted the response. This time, Israel
Speaker 2: assassinated the lead negotiator for Hamas, who they were trying
Speaker 2: to negotiate a ceasefire with which the United States was
Speaker 2: strongly behind. Right, And now then they did it in Tehran,
Speaker 2: and now then there's a risk that Iran's going to retaliate. Now,
Speaker 2: I personally think that the fact that it didn't come
Speaker 2: last night is indications that maybe our diplomacy, which has
Speaker 2: been like twenty four to seven right now, starting from
Speaker 2: the top on down, may have had a possible success
Speaker 2: at pushing this off. And I don't know what kind
Speaker 2: of deal could be struck it's going to or satisfy
Speaker 2: Iran in this case. But that's the part of the problem,
Speaker 2: is that if you take an action, you can expect
Speaker 2: a counteraction, So these things don't come cost free.
Speaker 1: And we'll see how it plays out well. And I
Speaker 1: hope diplomacy works. Lord knows we don't need a global
Speaker 1: conflict breaking out, do we have? And I guess I've
Speaker 1: always been operating and perhaps the mistake in presumption, and
Speaker 1: this is why we have you, Daniel Davis. Do we
Speaker 1: have a defense agreement with Israel? I know we have
Speaker 1: pledged to help defend them. We've offered them arms and
Speaker 1: support and diplomacy and whatever else is in our arsenal.
Speaker 1: But if they were to be attacked nation state with
Speaker 1: a flag and an army attacking Israel, that could be
Speaker 1: considered a war, a declaration war, much in the same
Speaker 1: way Israel hitting Iranian territory, which an embassy is considered,
Speaker 1: and of course in Tehran, that could be viewed by
Speaker 1: the Irans as an act of war. Eric, Oh, if
Speaker 1: they end up in a shooting war between the two countries,
Speaker 1: are we going to have boots on the ground in
Speaker 1: Israel or anyplace else in the region.
Speaker 2: Now that that is the absolute number one question for
Speaker 2: the United States right now, and just taking this thing
Speaker 2: on the substance of it, it is absolutely, undeniably an
Speaker 2: active war. Whether the Iranians choose to act on that
Speaker 2: and to launch into a war is a separate question
Speaker 2: because they have to do their own calculations of cost
Speaker 2: benefited if we respond to this, what would you know,
Speaker 2: what would be the consequence? Would we win, would we lose,
Speaker 2: would we would it cost us even more to try,
Speaker 2: et cetera. But part of this is their deterrent calculation,
Speaker 2: because they think that, Okay, if we don't do something,
Speaker 2: then Israel's going to keep on hitting this. I mean,
Speaker 2: just imagine if any nation on the planet took out
Speaker 2: somebody in Washington, d c. With the missile and blew
Speaker 2: it up. I mean, we would lose our minds. We
Speaker 2: would be ready to go to war later that afternoon. Well,
Speaker 2: we're allowed to do that, but nobody else can do
Speaker 2: it to us. Right, And to answer the second part
Speaker 2: of your question, we do have a I'm not sure
Speaker 2: exactly what year it started, but we have a ten
Speaker 2: year agreement to give three point eight billion in military
Speaker 2: aid to Israel every year. It is not a mutual
Speaker 2: defense treaty. There is no Article five type like there
Speaker 2: is in NATO. Didn't tackle on one's attack, on both etc.
Speaker 2: There's none of that. It does not go to that level.
Speaker 2: We just said we will help them defend themselves. And listen,
Speaker 2: the reason why we give them that money is so
Speaker 2: that they can protect themselves, and they can they have
Speaker 2: the capacity to protect theirselves to fight their own war
Speaker 2: should they get into one, as happened in nineteen sixty
Speaker 2: seven nineteen seventy three. We didn't fight for them on
Speaker 2: those cases. They fought for themselves. Now then we've given
Speaker 2: a lot more support than they had prior to those wars.
Speaker 2: So it is vital, in my view, vital that the
Speaker 2: United States not get dragged into a war, because if
Speaker 2: we get involved with something like that, it can have
Speaker 2: all kinds of unintended consequences, not the least of which
Speaker 2: is it could cause casualties to the United States and
Speaker 2: no apparent benefit if Israel gets into a war, especially
Speaker 2: because it takes provocative action in the capital city or
Speaker 2: against another nation state. That's something I'm up for a
Speaker 2: they need to handle well.
Speaker 1: As we pivot over to Ukraine, and you'll be able
Speaker 1: to answer a question that I've been puzzled by with
Speaker 1: regard to these F sixteens. That's a proxy war that
Speaker 1: is being weighed. Ukrainians are getting funding from all kinds
Speaker 1: of countries to fight against the Russians, and of course
Speaker 1: the Russians would probably have a much larger advantage but
Speaker 1: for our munitions and our arms and everything. But if
Speaker 1: you look at it as a situation involving Israel, if
Speaker 1: Israel's left the defend itself, it's certainly going to be
Speaker 1: a proxy war with the Russians and maybe the Chinese
Speaker 1: and the Iranians funding the weapons and the supplies to
Speaker 1: the fighters, as well as the Huthis and the other
Speaker 1: terrorist organizations who would similarly be attacking Israel.
Speaker 2: Right well, now, I'll tell you it gets even more
Speaker 2: complicated than that. I'm glad you brought this up because
Speaker 2: I think it's really important here in that our bad
Speaker 2: policies in the Russia Ukraine War war, and especially with
Speaker 2: the change. We had a couple of months back where
Speaker 2: Biden said, you know what, you guys with Ukraine, you
Speaker 2: can use our weapons to strike into Russia and on
Speaker 2: Russian territory. Putin then said, then, since you're willing to
Speaker 2: do that, then we'll do a mirror image, a tit
Speaker 2: for tat kind of thing, and we'll give weapons and
Speaker 2: animations to your enemies elsewhere in the globe. He was unspecific. Now,
Speaker 2: just imagine if Iran, who's getting weapons to Russia that
Speaker 2: they need for their drones, goes to war with Israel.
Speaker 2: What are the chances that. Oh, by the way, the
Speaker 2: former Ministry of Defense from Russia's Sergei Shoigu is in
Speaker 2: Tehran right now making military deals that Russia wouldn't give
Speaker 2: them weapons to potentially use against the United States exactly
Speaker 2: in the area. So this web keeps getting minded because
Speaker 2: our policies remain stupid.
Speaker 1: Okay, and pivoting over to stupid policies the whole situation
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. I talked with Congressman Warren Davison just yesterday,
Speaker 1: and he is against continuing and funding this. He says
Speaker 1: he has been from the outset. But this whole situation,
Speaker 1: Ukraine has been clamoring for an ass for F sixteens
Speaker 1: now since the whole situation unfolded. And here we are
Speaker 1: fast forward, is it has been three full years of war.
Speaker 1: We're roughly give or take six eight months whatever, now
Speaker 1: we're giving them F sixteens.
Speaker 2: Can you explain, well, see, here's here's the problem. Number one,
Speaker 2: let's look at the tactical possibility. F sixteens are going
Speaker 2: to give the ukrains a little more capacity. It will
Speaker 2: not change anything. But secondly, these things, it's not like, okay, well,
Speaker 2: when Russia invadi we should have given them F sixteens.
Speaker 2: You see, it took almost a full year to even
Speaker 2: get them to the point to where they can use
Speaker 2: these things. So it's a long lead time. And I
Speaker 2: assure you that these things. In the United States, we
Speaker 2: spent about two years training our pilots before we let
Speaker 2: them go into combat. Now, then these guys have had
Speaker 2: one and even though you can say yes, but they
Speaker 2: were already trained pilots in the mid twenty nine, et cetera.
Speaker 2: It's a very different aircraft and it fights different. We
Speaker 2: use the system the sixteens differently than they do use theirs.
Speaker 2: So it's a whole system of systems that have to
Speaker 2: be create on the fly. And listen when you talk
Speaker 2: about aircraft, even if we gave them ninety over the
Speaker 2: next year and a half, assuming the war could last
Speaker 2: that long, which is apparently the plan, Russia has up
Speaker 2: at one thousand, fourth and fifth generation fighters, So you're
Speaker 2: never going to close that gaps, and so anybody who
Speaker 2: thinks that's going to make a difference is fooling themselves.
Speaker 1: Well, and going back to the training, if the pilots
Speaker 1: of the ex F sixteens we give the Ukraine have
Speaker 1: only a year of training, I have to imagine that
Speaker 1: the Russian pilots have a lot more training than that,
Speaker 1: and the F sixteens might not be around very long.
Speaker 2: Well, there's two things, the Russian F thirty five's and
Speaker 2: the Russian air defense system, especially the S three S
Speaker 2: four hundred. Apparents some new S five hundreds that are
Speaker 2: coming online now are very very potent systems, and the
Speaker 2: Ukraine side is just not going to be able to
Speaker 2: stand up to that. There have actually been very very
Speaker 2: few air to air engagements. As far as I know,
Speaker 2: there may not have been any, but if there was,
Speaker 2: there's some rumors there was one. That's it. So this
Speaker 2: is mainly an air defense system. And so when when
Speaker 2: you get the F sixteenth in the year, the Russian
Speaker 2: S three four five hundreds are almost certainly going to
Speaker 2: take that out or air to air missiles from the
Speaker 2: F thirty of the S thirty five.
Speaker 1: Wow, you got any good news for us today, Daniel days, Well.
Speaker 2: We didn't get into a war last night, so that's
Speaker 2: a good news in the Middle East, and let's pray
Speaker 2: that that continues.
Speaker 1: We will end on that positive note. Search for them online.
Speaker 1: Just search Daniel Davis Deep Dive you find his podcast
Speaker 1: and these types of conversations. Always enjoy the discussion, Daniel.
Speaker 1: We'll talk next Tuesday. Stay well, my friend.
Speaker 2: Always my pleasure. Thanks by coming.
Speaker 1: Up on eight forty here fifty five krc DE talk station.
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