Speaker 1: It's a huge college basketball card. This Saturday, February the fourteenth,
Valentine's Day. Happy Valentine's Then, I'm gonna give you every
Top twenty five matchup plus some bonus game seven games
free for you in this video right here, right now.
I it's the Steve Merrill wager Talk dot Com right
back Carol wager Talk Today and wants to get Happy
Valentine's Dad. All my Oil viewers out there, we had
you throughout the college and pro football season. Now that
football is done, we're in the heart of basketball. I'll
continue to give you this Top twenty five video every Saturday,
and then of course every NCAA tournament game next month
when March Madness hits, and then every NBA playoff game April,
May and June, just like I did last year. Hey,
if you're finding a useful quick thumbs up like positive
common below and I'll keep these videos coming and click
subscribe click the bell here on wager Talk TV so
you never miss out. Right on, I have one pink
T shirt in the entire arsenal, so I wore it
under the wager Talk hoodie for this Saturday Valentine's Day.
By the way, we have a Valentine's Day special at
wager talk dot com. More details coming here later in
the video. But let's get to the games, because there
are four true top twenty five matchups, actually five matchups
if you look at the coaches poll. I look at
the ap pole, but one team is twenty six, twenty
fifth and the other so early five top twenty five matchups,
and I'm gonna give you a couple bonus games as
always due. So let's get to all seven games here.
We will go down in start time order. I'm gonna
go rapid fire here. I'm gonna try to creick make
it quick and simple for each game here so we
don't take up too much time on this busy Saturday.
But the first one's a good one at twelve newon
Eastern on ESPN, AACC action number twenty Clemson at number four. Duke,
and I'm using, by the way, the Friday night lines.
I'm doing this video nice and early for you on
Friday night. The lines have been out for a few
hours here, so these numbers will probably change quite a
bit by Saturday afternoon, especially the night time games. I'll
get to in a moment. But Duke opening about a
twelve and a half point favorite, it's now up to
thirteen and a half even fourteen a little bit of
early money on Duke. Total is holding pretty steady around
that one thirty three range. First time these teams have
met this season, and Duke did lose to North Carolina
of course, last Saturday as a road favorite. They bounce
back against Pittsburgh with a non covering win. So Duke
has now failed to cover three straight games. After five
straight covers and six out of seven, they're oher to
three against the spread. They've gone under five straight and
seven of their last eight games have stayed under the total,
and Clemson has stayed under in four of their last
five games. And Clemson plays extremely slow half court basketball.
And these are two excellent defensive teams, but Duke holds
the big offensive edge in this game, and that'll probably
be the difference. But once again, you're paying a premium
with Duke, as evident by their ower to three point
spread run recently. Let's look at the total. We'll keep
that under run going here. With both of these teams
under the one thirty three would probably be the best
way to tack it. I think Clemson's going to slow
this game down, and Duke is not an up tempo team.
They're in the bottom half of tempo ratings nationwide as well.
Duke's weakness on defense this year is they give up
a lot of three point shots. But Clemson's not a
great three point shooting team. So I think the under
one to thirty three makes sense in this game at
twelve new Eastern on ESPN. All right, let's look at
your next game at one o'clock eastern on ABC. Another
good one of top ten matchup, probably the best game
of the day, Number nine Kansas at number five Iowa State.
That's at one o'clock eastern once again on ABC National TV.
And we have seen some early money come in on
Iowa State in this one line opened six and by Saturday.
By Friday evening, going into Saturday, it was already up
to minus six and a half minus seven in most spots.
Also saw the over underbump Hire opened about one forty
three on Friday afternoon. By Friday night it was up
to one forty six. We've seen sharp money early on
Iowa State and the over in this Kansas game, and
I agree with the move on Iowa State. Now the
line is inflated. I thought it'd be a little bit lower,
but the situation is solid for Iowa State. We always
talk about revenge second meetings. That's why I love handicapping
February college hoops. We got all the conference play, a
lot of common opponents, a lot of statistics to work
with now that these teams have played twenty some games,
and we also get second meetings. Now, not every second
meeting is a revenge play. There's always a revenge motive,
but revenge works better in certain situations. First of all,
with strong Class A teams. It also works better with
home teams because home court is very strong in college basketball,
especially for Class A teams. And I also like when
the team is coming off a loss and also when
it's meaningful revenge. And we get all four of those
angles working with Iowa State, this is an excellent setup
for the Cyclone. So yes, the line is a little inflated,
but the early sharp maney is on Iowa State, and
I agree. Cyclones coming off a loss against TCU earlier
this week, four days earlier as a road favorite, and
of course they were embarrassed by Kansas back on January
thirteenth on the road, a twenty one point loss at
Kansas as a road favorite. In that game, we talked
about that. I think I did a video for that
game last month and Kansas just smoked them. And also
it's a home situation for Iowa State, so we get
the home strong home team, awful loss, meaningful revenge. I
like Iowa State in this one at one o'clock. Eastern
line's a little inflated, but it looks like a good
spot for the Cyclones. All right, we'll keep it rolling here.
Another game for you on ABC right afterwards is at
three o'clock you number twenty five Kentucky at number fourteen Florida.
Kentucky barely ranked in the top twenty five in the
ap here. They're sliding in, but they're played excellent basketball.
And this is a team I've kind of had circles
a possible play on team. Later in the season, you know,
Brad Pope talked about the terrible start they got off
to I think they were two and three to start
the season, and he came out and said, back in November,
I've done a terrible job coaching. I love it. I
love it when they admit it. His payroll was like
twenty five million for all his players, and they were
off to a losing start. But there's a lot of talent,
and I remember at that time a couple months ago,
I thought to myself, at some point, Kentucky's going to
be an undervalue team, And it looks like that might
be the case here, as the Wildcats entered this game
eight and won their last nine. They've won eight of
their last nine games now. The one loss was a
blowout loss at Vanderbilt by twenty five a few weeks ago,
but otherwise they're eight and one straight up in their
last nine games, and they've covered three in a row here,
three wins and covers in their last three games, including
an underdog straight up win at Arkansas, a solid double
digit win against Oklahahoma, and then they win against Tennessee
as a small favorite last Saturday. They've hit a full
week off to prepare for this game as well at Florida,
and the matchup is also favorable for Florida for Kentucky rather,
Todd Golden the last three years has not beaten Kentucky
in regulation. They're four to one straight up the last
three years, including last year when they won the national title.
They lost to Kentucky in the regular season one O
six to one hundred over two hundred points in regulation.
They o four to one in regulation. They only win
the last three years against the Wildcats came in overtime,
and Florida's laying double digits in this game. I do
think Kentucky's a live dog in this one. I would
take a look at the Wildcats. And by the way,
this line opened ten and a half eleven, it's already
up to thirteen thirteen and a half. I do not
agree with that move. I like Kentucky as a live
dog here to keep this one close at three o'clock Eastern,
that's on ABC National TV. All right, we'll finish out
with your fourth true top twenty five matchup. Then I'll
get the three bonus games for you. This one at
six thirty eastern on ESPN, Number sixteen ten Texas Tech
the Red Raiders against number one Arizona, and we'll see
if Arizona holds onto that number one spot. Because the
Wildcats finally lost a game this season, they're now twenty
three and one straight up, and of course that loss
came in their most recent game and it was a
eighty two seventy eight loss at Kansas as a four
and a half point road favored, difficult road spot at Kansas.
No shame in losing by four against a good top
ten Jayhawks team. So the question becomes, does Arizona bounce
back now in this situation against a pretty good Texas
Tech team. Texas Tech right now in my rankings ranks
top twenty both offense and defensive efficiency. Arizona, though, ranks
top fifteen in both in Clack. In fact, I've got
them as the second best defensive team in the country,
but offensively I don't have Arizona top ten. These are
two good offenses, but Arizona is a great defense. A
couple other matchup things here. Texas Tech does not get
to the free throw line much Arizona does. I would
expect Arizona also at home to get some calls. They
also play extremely fast, which normally the home team can
dictate tempo. Arizona does not take many three point shots,
and the strength for Texas Tech this year has been
a strong perimeter defense. They don't give up many threes,
and they have a strong three point defense. But that's
not Arkansas's game. Arizona Arkansas. We'll talk about them in
a moment. Arizona's game is scoring down low and in
transition with the up tempo style, and I do think
that'll work well here. I'm in no hurry to buck
one of the best teams in the country. Look, I've
said I think Michigan might be the most balanced team,
and come tournament time, they might be my pick to
one at all. Everyone keeps saying, Steve, what about Arizona.
I've got Arizona as a one seat. I brank them
is like the second or third best team in the country.
I've got Houston, Michigan, Arizona all up there, and whenever
I can get one of the best teams in the country.
Awful loss, that's always going to make my short lists.
And I do think you're going to play it. You
want to lay it with Arizona and also looks like
a favorable matchup for the Wildcats back at home off
their first loss of the season as they try to
hold on to that number one ranking. We'll see if
they're able to do so. By the way, what are
your thoughts. Who do you think is the best team
in college basket We'll drop it in the comments below.
I do read the comments and I reply back. This
line open nine and a half and as of Friday night,
still nine nine and a half, so we haven't seen
too much movement. A little bit of movement to the
over up to one fifty seven, which makes sense because
if you lean Arizona, they're going to probably push the tempone.
It should be a high scoring game. Right. Those are
your four official AP top twenty five matchups. So there's
another game that technically qualifies because Iowa is coming in
twenty fifth in the coaches poll now the second most
additional votes in the AP poll, which means they're twenty seventh,
but they are number twenty five in the coaches pole.
So I'm gonna give you that fifth game, and I
say it's a bonus game, but it's technically a top
twenty five game depending on which pole you look at.
And that's number thirteen per Due at number twenty seven Iowa.
That's at five pm Eastern on Fox National TV. And
this looks like a good spot for the Hawk guys,
and that they win this one, I think they got
a good chance to be ranked in both polls next
week when all is said and done, and once again,
Iowa is coming in twenty fifth in the coaches poll,
even though they are two spots out in the AP now.
They did lose to Maryland on the road as a
double digit favorite earlier this week on Wednesday, so they
probably will not be ranked even if they pull the
win in this game against a good Purdue team. This
is a revenge spot though for Iowa. They lost at
Purdue by seven, they covered as a ten point dog
back a month ago exactly on January fourteenth, and they also,
as I mentioned, lost in Maryland. So here's another situation.
Quality team, strong home court with revenge and coming off
a loss looks like a pretty good set up here,
and it's also a spot to fade. Purdue off of
three straight wins, including an outright underdog win in overtime
against Nebraska on Tuesday, could be a possible flat spot
here at oh looky here, guess who's on deck for
Purdue Michigan next week on Tuesday as well. So they're
coming off a big upset win on Tuesday and overtime
against Nebraska and they have Michigan on deck and now
they're traveling on the road. Let down possible letdown spot
for Purdue, and it looks like a good bounce back
revenge spot for Iowa. I like the Hawk guys in
this one, and once again after that Maryland Laws. They're
probably not gonna be ranked even if they win this one,
but they're gonna give themselves a fighting chance to get
back on the top twenty five. And early line on
this was one one and a half. It's been bet
up to two. Might seat some two and a halfs,
but I do like Iowa as the live home dog
at five o'clock Eastern, and that is on Fox National TV.
There you go. Those are your true top twenty five matchups,
all five of them for this Saturday. But as I
always do, I'd like to dig a little bit deeper
and give you as much value as possible in these videos.
So I'm gonna give you two more games and are
just a bit outside for making the cut, well more
than just a bit outside. They're not even top thirty matchups,
but their two teams are getting some additional votes in
the AP poll, so hey, why not, I'm gonna give
you seven full games here in the video. By the way,
if you're liking it, quick thumbs up like that's all
I ask. I'm giving you like a twenty some minute
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every day here on wager Talk TV. All right, two
bonus games for you. We're gonna look at one at
eight thirty Eastern. These your two lady ESPN games. That's
the other reason I want to give them to you.
Their high profile TV games. Alburn and Arkansas in the SEC.
Arkansas is coming in ranked twenty first in the country
right now. Auburn is in the additional votes that they're
got like two or three additional votes in the eightp pole.
In fact, I'll look it up for it. Let's be exact.
They're getting two additional votes. Saint Mary's is getting one,
So that would put Auburn at thirty fourth with those
two additional votes. To put it in perspective. By the way,
the number twenty fourteen Louisville has one hundred and eighty
two total votes, Kentucky has eighty votes in twenty fifth.
Alabama's in twenty six with seventy two votes, so Alburn
getting two votes is really pushing it. But I wanted
to talk about this game because this is on ESPN
National TV at eight thirty Eastern, and I think it's
a good bounce back spot for Arkansas, you know, another
one of those revenge situations I talk about. There's different
angles that we'd like to use with revenge. First of all,
like strong teams at home, and of course this qualifies
because Arkansas is a top twenty five team at home.
And it's also legitimate revenge as I mentioned earlier, as
they were embarrassed at Auburn last month on January tenth,
losing by twenty two points as only a two point
dog on the road. And while they have come in
off back to back road winds, they lost their last
home game against Kentucky as a favorite two weeks ago
on January thirty first, So that's another little intricacy. It's
not always a team aful loss. Sometimes it's a team
that lost their last home game because you know they're
going to be focused in front of the home fans.
So this looks like a good revenge bounce back spot
for Arkansas at home. And that one's at eight to
thirty Eastern for you on ESPN, And I'll pull up
the current number for you here late Friday night as
I'm doing this, just so we can give you the
lines for you see if this one has moved and
he had opened around six six and a half, it's
now up to eight and a half. So yeah, we've
seen some real early Sharp Money line opened six Friday afternoon,
by late Friday night it's eight and a half. So
Sharp Money agrees with Arkansas. There's not you know, that
line's inflated now. But just like I was stated, it
looks like a good bounce back revenge spot. And hey,
that shows the sharps are looking at the exact same
angles I'm looking at here in the videos as well.
All right, that's your ESPN gave it eight thirty Eastern
and then the late night game right after it on
ESPN also is Gonzaga and Santa Clara, And I talked
about how I was digging deep with those additional votes. Well,
guess what, there's a team one spot ahead of Auburn
with Actually now they're with two additional votes as well,
so they're tied with Auburn for the thirty thirds. I
said Auburn was thirty fourth. Actually they're technically thirty third
because Santa Clair and Auburn are both getting two additional
votes in the AP poll. Hey, but let's talk about
it anyway. Number twelve, Gonzaga, number thirty three, Santa Clair
ten thirty eastern on ESPN. And one of the reason
I wanted to talk about this game is I don't
do a lot with the fade the public information in
college hoops. I'll talk more about it, by the way,
in my march men is NCAA tournament games because those
are heavily bet public sports. And I hope, by the way,
you enjoyed the NFL Fade the Public video this season
hit sixty percent overall from start to finish through the playoffs.
Regular season through the playoffs, Fade in the Public was
sixty percent of my video. Yet another reason to click
subscribe and clicked the bell for instance alerts you'll know
when it's ready next September when the NFL resumes. But
this is a situation where my guess is that the
book's gonna probably need Santa Clara late Saturday night. This
line opened around four four and a half on Friday nine,
and that's currently where it's holding right now. But that
line's gonna probably look pretty short to the average better.
But this is actually a very good Santa Clara team
this season that could give Gonzaga a little bit of trouble.
And I think this game's gonna be like a one
or two point game if they don't win it outright. Also,
it's a revenge spot for Santa Clair. They lost by twelve,
but they covered back on January eighth. And as far
as the matchup in this game, well, first let's talk
a little bit more about Santa Clara Gonzaga twenty four
and two, twelve and one. They're coming off back to
back win as they enter this game. Santa Clair though
twenty two and five on the season, thirteen and one
in the conference, and the only loss once again was
that fifth conference game back in early January. I think
they can hang in this one and one thing about
Gonzaga they play fast. Santa Clara does as well, and
normally I prefer the better team when they both play fast,
but Santa Clair is not far off. In fact, if
you look at offensive efficiency ratings this year, Santa Clair
is the better offense and they actually shoot the three
point shot more often as well, which always gives them
upset potential. And Gonzaga gives up a lot of three
point shots and that's something Santa Clair does well and
they should do even better now that they're on their
home court for this rematch. I think it's a live
dog Santa Clara plus the four and a half in
your late game ten third Eastern Saturday night on ESPN. Whoo,
there we go. Seven games. I can breathe now what
that take about fifteen minutes to go over seven games
for he free plays and analysis. Hope you found it
useful if you did click the thumbs up, like hey,
leave me a positive comment below. Also, which games do
you agree or disagree with? What top twenty five plays
do you you like? What other college basketball games you'd like?
In general? For this Saturday, February the fourteenth, Valentine's Day,
Hey drop it below include some analysis if you have time,
your favorite plays, even some under the radar selections mid
major games. Let's learn and earn and win together here
on wager Talk TV. And speaking of Valentine's Day, what
are your plans tonight? Are you spending the night watching
the three point in dunk contest with your loved one?
Nothing wrong with that? Are you going out to a
fancy dinner? Hey? Drop it in the comments below. We're
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that'd be a good one. Hey, let's get creative here.
I do truly read the comments our reply back. I
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truly why I do these videos each and every day
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way to learning or to win together. As I always say, Hey,
speaking of winning, I've got some strong client bets for
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Some of these might make my best bet card. I'm
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to be exact game. Obviously, some of these are light
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I also post a free play on my page every day,
which is truly the last cut for my best bet card.
That you might want to treat as a two percent
opinion because the free play on my page Steve merrillwager
Talk dot com every day, including this Saturday, is truly
this last cut for my best bet card. Maybe treat
that as a two percent opinion. But my client best bets,
my official best bets each and every day, are strong
four percent plays. They're the games I'm personally using and
they're strong. That's why they're four percent of bank roll.
And if you're serious about making money and taking a
consistent investment approach, you need to be playing the strongest
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anniversary comes up this summer. I looked it up. The
traditional gift, as you know as pearls rule the pearl
so appropriate, or diamonds the modern gift. I like that
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