WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.919 --> 00:00:13.640 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Aazam. We get 2 00:00:13.679 --> 00:00:17.359 the full crew here, Ady Milburn, Jason Lyons, mcmulroy, and myself. 3 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:22.839 A lot going on, first and foremost, the Gaza ceasefires 4 00:00:22.920 --> 00:00:25.359 currently underway as we're shooting this right now, twelve o'clock 5 00:00:25.399 --> 00:00:29.960 Eastern on Sunday. What are you guys looking at, Mick? 6 00:00:30.679 --> 00:00:32.240 I know you've been tracking this pretty tight. 7 00:00:33.320 --> 00:00:36.920 Yes, tracking it from both the ABC perspective and the 8 00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:42.600 fact that my group is doing humanitarian aid in Gaza 9 00:00:42.679 --> 00:00:47.200 right now. So obviously it's a great, a great thing 10 00:00:47.320 --> 00:00:49.399 that we have a ceasar that's now coming to place. 11 00:00:49.439 --> 00:00:55.159 It was very tedious and tension written because neither side 12 00:00:55.320 --> 00:00:57.799 trusts each other at all. I mean, they're more lenemies 13 00:00:58.119 --> 00:01:02.560 in the purest definition of word, so there was some 14 00:01:02.600 --> 00:01:04.879 fits and starts. One of the biggest issues I think 15 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:09.040 that's been evolving around these negotiations is the lack of 16 00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:12.680 clarity of who's alive and who's not right. Normally, when 17 00:01:12.719 --> 00:01:15.560 you do hostage negotiations start off with the proof of life, 18 00:01:15.599 --> 00:01:18.680 so you know what you're negotiating for. So it's still 19 00:01:18.760 --> 00:01:22.719 unclear to the Israeli side and the mediators for that matter. 20 00:01:23.599 --> 00:01:25.599 You know, out of the ninety seven that are still left, 21 00:01:25.599 --> 00:01:28.239 how many are still alive. And it's believed that even 22 00:01:28.280 --> 00:01:33.079 in the first thirty, which is women, elderly and children, 23 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:36.719 that there are already going to be remains rather than 24 00:01:36.719 --> 00:01:40.760 people coming out. So where we are right now, the 25 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:46.560 three females that Israeli hostages have been relieved, they have 26 00:01:46.640 --> 00:01:48.799 been checked by the Red Cross, and they're in the 27 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:53.439 process of free patriation. At the same time, there's about 28 00:01:53.560 --> 00:01:59.079 ninety Palestinian prisoners, some of which were in prison for 29 00:01:59.159 --> 00:02:04.159 a life. A couple actually committed significant terrorist acts that 30 00:02:04.239 --> 00:02:07.640 killed inno cent civilians. They're in the process of being moved, 31 00:02:07.920 --> 00:02:10.599 and that's even more complicated. You know, where are they going? 32 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:12.240 I don't even sure where they are and I follow 33 00:02:12.240 --> 00:02:15.840 this pretty closely. Some might actually end up in out 34 00:02:15.840 --> 00:02:19.319 of the country and Katar in Egypt is what part 35 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:22.960 of the gatter is. And then at this all, with 36 00:02:23.080 --> 00:02:25.080 all that going on, you have the idea of having 37 00:02:25.080 --> 00:02:28.039 to relocate from population centers, not all the way out. 38 00:02:28.439 --> 00:02:32.439 And there's supposed to be six hundred trucks per day 39 00:02:32.759 --> 00:02:36.919 of humanitarianists since much needed going into Gaza. Three hundred 40 00:02:36.960 --> 00:02:38.520 are supposed to go all the way to the north, 41 00:02:38.960 --> 00:02:42.759 so that is a logistical difficulty because of the damage 42 00:02:42.759 --> 00:02:45.879 to the infrastructure, and of course a large portion of 43 00:02:45.919 --> 00:02:48.319 that is fuel that is needed for the hospitals to 44 00:02:48.360 --> 00:02:51.159 be able to get up and running, which is also 45 00:02:51.400 --> 00:02:53.319 very much needed. And this is all happening at the 46 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:55.800 same time, and it's going to go day by day. 47 00:02:57.240 --> 00:03:00.479 We should all hope that it continues to go without 48 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:03.520 any disruption, but there's a big chance that there could 49 00:03:03.560 --> 00:03:08.080 be disruption because of this complicated manner. And of course, 50 00:03:08.479 --> 00:03:11.439 just to add to that, not everybody listens to Hamas. 51 00:03:11.719 --> 00:03:15.520 There's plenty of theiatists in the in there that you know, 52 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:18.560 might want to disrupt this for whatever reason, and if 53 00:03:18.599 --> 00:03:21.879 they can do something substantial enough, it's potential. So this 54 00:03:22.000 --> 00:03:24.479 is a very tenuous situation. 55 00:03:26.840 --> 00:03:31.439 Andy, Yeah, I mean, well mix uh mixed the expert 56 00:03:31.520 --> 00:03:34.560 on this. I've just been reading some of the kind 57 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:37.360 of the human interest side of the story too, when 58 00:03:37.479 --> 00:03:41.680 one of the first three women is as actually a 59 00:03:41.680 --> 00:03:46.319 British citizen, Jewel national, and so the British papers have been, 60 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:49.960 uh you know, going wild over this, and uh you know, 61 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:53.120 I mean there's some some quite touching coverage. Evidently she 62 00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:57.759 has been a terwrist strength as a hostage. Other hostages 63 00:03:57.800 --> 00:03:59.960 who are released have said that, and not simply be 64 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:05.680 because she's British, but Tottenham Hotspur football club, which I 65 00:04:05.719 --> 00:04:09.560 believe is you know, another football club, not one of 66 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:10.000 the best. 67 00:04:11.759 --> 00:04:12.919 They're pretty close out there. 68 00:04:13.479 --> 00:04:16.600 Yeah, I'm joking. It's just for all the Spurs fans 69 00:04:17.079 --> 00:04:22.560 who are deplorable human beings. But aside from that, because 70 00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:26.360 she was a fan of Spurs, you know, they've been 71 00:04:26.399 --> 00:04:31.759 releasing yellow balloons during their matches and making announcements, you know, 72 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:37.160 throughout the hostage crisis on her status and you know, 73 00:04:37.560 --> 00:04:41.560 kudos to the The other thing is, you know, to 74 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:45.759 mixed point are the Palestinians being released. And I think 75 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:53.439 this plays into Sinoa's original calculus. Now, remember when Sinoa 76 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:56.800 was released from jail in twenty eleven, it was part 77 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:00.519 of a hostage release, and you know there were thousand, 78 00:05:00.800 --> 00:05:05.000 I believe a thousand Palestinians released in return for the 79 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:10.560 body of Gilad Shahalil, who was an Israeli soldier who'd 80 00:05:10.600 --> 00:05:17.040 been kidnapped and killed. And so Sinoa was calculus through 81 00:05:17.120 --> 00:05:20.040 all of this was partly based on his own experiences. 82 00:05:20.360 --> 00:05:23.680 We talked about Sinwha's time and in Israeli jail, how 83 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:29.480 he studied through the British Open University courses on Israel, 84 00:05:29.639 --> 00:05:37.240 on the Zionism. But he's also a keen study analyst 85 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:42.680 of Israeli national psychology, speaks very fluent Hebrew, and so 86 00:05:43.399 --> 00:05:46.959 it's ironic, you know, all this time later, a number 87 00:05:46.959 --> 00:05:51.920 of deaths later, since fifteen months into it, and you 88 00:05:51.959 --> 00:05:55.160 know his predictions are kind of coming true. That's I mean, listen, 89 00:05:55.639 --> 00:05:59.720 from a personal perspective, I'm for this cease far, I'm 90 00:05:59.759 --> 00:06:04.240 not criticizing it. But some of these high profile prisoner 91 00:06:04.240 --> 00:06:07.399 has been released are indeed high profile. One of the 92 00:06:07.519 --> 00:06:10.759 carriers of Baby, who's a senior member of the Alaxa 93 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:16.319 Martis Brigades on the West Bank. He'd you know, he'd 94 00:06:16.439 --> 00:06:20.360 escaped from a Gilbauer prison back in twenty twenty one, 95 00:06:20.519 --> 00:06:23.639 was caught again and he was behind a waiver of 96 00:06:23.680 --> 00:06:30.360 bombings in Jerusalem. There's another prisoner also who's been held 97 00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:34.000 personally responsible for forty two deaths of civilians and bombing 98 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:41.519 attacks back in this second Infidata Defarda. So again this 99 00:06:41.639 --> 00:06:48.439 kind of plays into Nettner, whose stands on the hostages. 100 00:06:48.680 --> 00:06:55.480 In other words, his apparent unwillingness to negotiate and to 101 00:06:58.240 --> 00:07:01.600 you know, any terms of ceasefire. And I'm not suggesting 102 00:07:01.639 --> 00:07:04.079 he's driven by principle. He's driven by trying to hold 103 00:07:04.079 --> 00:07:08.199 his coalition together. But it runs, it flies in the 104 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:11.680 face of of kind of this really national ethos, which 105 00:07:11.759 --> 00:07:15.639 is regardless of cost, to bring back their own alive 106 00:07:15.800 --> 00:07:20.040 or dead. And it'll be interesting to see what happens 107 00:07:20.040 --> 00:07:25.240 to his coalition now that Ben Gavier has finally finally quit. 108 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:29.439 He's packed up as toys that Ben Gavier represents the 109 00:07:29.560 --> 00:07:34.079 Jewish Power Party and which is of course on the 110 00:07:33.959 --> 00:07:36.639 on the on the right wing. But it looks as 111 00:07:36.680 --> 00:07:42.680 though because the the consensus in favor of this ceasefire 112 00:07:42.800 --> 00:07:46.439 is is I won't say it's universal, but it seems 113 00:07:46.480 --> 00:07:49.199 as though a majority of Israeli support it. And there 114 00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:54.920 have been parties in central on the center who have 115 00:07:55.439 --> 00:07:59.199 offered to help support Natanna whose coalition in order to 116 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:02.720 carry this through, which is an extraordinary because Netnio, who 117 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:04.759 was hated by these people, I mean, he's hated by 118 00:08:04.759 --> 00:08:07.639 a significant part of Israel. But the fact that they're 119 00:08:07.680 --> 00:08:10.079 willing to align with them in order to make this 120 00:08:10.120 --> 00:08:14.160 ceasefi deal go through. Just shows the you know, kind 121 00:08:14.199 --> 00:08:18.399 of a level of hope and expectation that a sizable 122 00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:22.079 chunk of the Israeli public places on this ceasefire and 123 00:08:22.120 --> 00:08:23.279 the return of the hostages. 124 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:29.120 So I need to I want to ask, and I 125 00:08:29.160 --> 00:08:32.440 guess I'm not sure if either of you know this, 126 00:08:32.519 --> 00:08:36.039 but is it normal for that? I guess what seems 127 00:08:36.080 --> 00:08:39.879 like a lopsided exchange, like three of is the Israelis 128 00:08:39.879 --> 00:08:42.159 for like three hundred of theirs. 129 00:08:42.200 --> 00:08:47.799 Is that normal? Yeah? Twenty eleven, Yeah, twenty eleven. I 130 00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:50.799 think it was. I forget how many it was for 131 00:08:50.840 --> 00:08:53.480 one thousand prisoners, but it was in I think it 132 00:08:53.519 --> 00:08:55.080 was like in the double digits. 133 00:08:55.320 --> 00:08:58.279 Really, yeah, And it seems like the ratio this time 134 00:08:58.360 --> 00:09:01.960 is thirty to one. Okay, Right, So there's three coming 135 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:06.679 out today and there's ninety being released, and some of 136 00:09:06.720 --> 00:09:09.519 them are I think out of the pool that might 137 00:09:09.559 --> 00:09:11.840 be released in total over one thousand, there's about one 138 00:09:11.919 --> 00:09:15.559 hundred and ninety two hundred that have serious life sentence. 139 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:17.799 Like Andy was just talking about these these people that 140 00:09:17.840 --> 00:09:20.480 are so it's it's causing some tension, of course with 141 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:24.000 the family members of the people that were killed. But ultimately, 142 00:09:24.240 --> 00:09:27.799 I think for the greater good to get the people 143 00:09:27.799 --> 00:09:30.879 that you know, there's the first thirty three include children 144 00:09:30.879 --> 00:09:31.600 for Chris. 145 00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:33.960 You know, it's it's I mean. 146 00:09:34.200 --> 00:09:36.480 It's I can see how the families of the ones 147 00:09:36.480 --> 00:09:38.039 that were killed in the past will be upset. But 148 00:09:38.759 --> 00:09:41.240 you know, there's very difficult decisions to be made, and 149 00:09:41.240 --> 00:09:43.279 it's going to be even more difficult to go from 150 00:09:43.279 --> 00:09:47.080 phase one into phase two because phase two is a 151 00:09:47.080 --> 00:09:50.679 full withdrawal idef from Kaza, right, So that is that 152 00:09:50.799 --> 00:09:54.399 is a huge political decision that's going to be fraught 153 00:09:54.480 --> 00:09:58.960 with you know, collapsings of governments and and it of 154 00:09:59.000 --> 00:10:02.360 course makes it more difficul It's a moss then decides 155 00:10:02.399 --> 00:10:06.080 to start fighting again if they can regain the capacity 156 00:10:06.159 --> 00:10:09.320 because after all, there was a ceasefire on October. 157 00:10:08.919 --> 00:10:10.200 Sixth, right, So. 158 00:10:12.000 --> 00:10:15.360 Yeah, but right now they're focused on getting through Phase 159 00:10:15.399 --> 00:10:17.399 one and getting these thirty three people out. 160 00:10:17.679 --> 00:10:19.360 So can we break down a little bit of what 161 00:10:19.399 --> 00:10:22.600 the parameters of the ceasefires? Is there a day count 162 00:10:22.639 --> 00:10:25.720 on it, like how they had in Lebanons, Hesbola and 163 00:10:25.759 --> 00:10:27.519 stuff like that, Like what what does it look like 164 00:10:27.519 --> 00:10:31.320 the thirty three hostages. Obviously, like, what are the what's 165 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:32.159 phase one two? 166 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:35.679 It's so it's forty two days phase one to get 167 00:10:35.679 --> 00:10:39.519 thirty three hostages out when it's thirty thirty Palestinian prisoners 168 00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:43.399 per hostage. I don't think the amount of truck aid 169 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:45.720 going in changes. I think at six hundred and eighty 170 00:10:46.840 --> 00:10:50.759 per day every day. There is some withdrawal requirements for 171 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:56.039 the idef out of population centers, but what's. 172 00:10:55.879 --> 00:10:57.080 Another part of it. 173 00:10:58.879 --> 00:11:00.879 That's that's that's the one I know, and then you 174 00:11:00.879 --> 00:11:03.440 go to second phase. It's a full withdrawal, and then 175 00:11:03.480 --> 00:11:07.720 third phase in generally speaking, is the reconstruction of Gaza, right, so, 176 00:11:08.480 --> 00:11:10.799 which is going to take decades. So if you're looking 177 00:11:10.799 --> 00:11:13.360 at the overall strategy of a MOSS, I heard this 178 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:15.679 this morning which I thought was kind of interesting. Pre 179 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:22.279 October seventh, the economy of Gaza was essentially equal to Morocco. Right, 180 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:24.559 So there's this concept that it was an open prison 181 00:11:24.600 --> 00:11:29.399 and everything was without hope, but it wasn't actually the case. Right, 182 00:11:29.480 --> 00:11:35.440 So a MOSS for their strategy, is completely devastated Gaza. 183 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:40.759 It's about eighty five to ninety percent uninhabitable structures, and 184 00:11:40.840 --> 00:11:44.480 I think I've seen an estimated fifty to sixty billion 185 00:11:44.519 --> 00:11:49.159 dollars in required to reconstruct. That'll take ten to fifteen years. 186 00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:53.639 That's what that's where they put their people. And forty 187 00:11:53.679 --> 00:11:54.759 six thousand dead right. 188 00:11:54.679 --> 00:11:59.000 Now, what's the situation on the ground look like? 189 00:11:59.120 --> 00:12:03.200 Humanitarian it's very dire. 190 00:12:03.279 --> 00:12:05.840 I mean, we've all heard the most. I don't think 191 00:12:05.840 --> 00:12:10.720 there's any functional hospital right now, partly because there's no generations, 192 00:12:10.720 --> 00:12:12.440 no power, so the stuff that you need for any 193 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:18.440 kind of advanced medical care is not there. The medicines, vaccinating, 194 00:12:18.879 --> 00:12:22.919 vaccinations have been a problem, so there's a concern that 195 00:12:23.559 --> 00:12:27.159 you know, otherwise diseases that would not be coming back 196 00:12:27.240 --> 00:12:30.840 are coming back. And of course it's winter there, so 197 00:12:31.320 --> 00:12:36.320 there's a big problem with exposure and food. I mean, 198 00:12:36.360 --> 00:12:39.399 the food is just not flowing in but it should 199 00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:42.799 now and I think that from what my understanding, and 200 00:12:42.879 --> 00:12:46.360 we were just talking to our team this morning, there's 201 00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:47.919 two things they need to get the food in. They 202 00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:51.159 have to have a place to store it, right because 203 00:12:51.159 --> 00:12:53.279 if they don't, people are hoarding it, people are stealing it, 204 00:12:53.320 --> 00:12:55.480 people are then selling it, and you know, the people 205 00:12:55.519 --> 00:12:59.440 who don't have money, So there has to be a 206 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:03.720 rebuilding of some of the infrastructure that the UN specifically 207 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:08.120 used to use to hold large food stores to get 208 00:13:08.120 --> 00:13:10.240 them in there, so it calms down the population. They 209 00:13:10.279 --> 00:13:12.320 can look over there and see that there's enough food 210 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:14.559 for the next two months, so they don't need to 211 00:13:14.600 --> 00:13:18.720 fight each other for this bag of rice or attack 212 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:23.080 the truck driver. That's this all needs to happen simultaneously, 213 00:13:23.159 --> 00:13:26.000 so it can kind of decompress the situation but also 214 00:13:26.080 --> 00:13:28.759 get food, not just the other issue. And I know 215 00:13:28.960 --> 00:13:31.559 get'll deep on this, but when they come into one 216 00:13:31.639 --> 00:13:35.159 particular ground entry point, it's very difficult to convince the 217 00:13:35.200 --> 00:13:37.759 population that it goes through first that they should let 218 00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:40.679 it go because there's a population further away than them 219 00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:45.159 they're starving. It's kind of a situation where it's a 220 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:48.399 you know, every man woman for himself, kind of a 221 00:13:48.639 --> 00:13:51.360 darwinning type thing. So they have to come in from 222 00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:54.919 different directions. I would say that there's still a need 223 00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:57.519 for a maritime cort or just to be done different 224 00:13:57.519 --> 00:13:58.960 than it was in the first place, because you can 225 00:13:59.039 --> 00:14:02.679 come in a different poluting the north and really bring 226 00:14:02.679 --> 00:14:07.919 in large scale humanitarian assistance to places that just aren't 227 00:14:07.960 --> 00:14:09.440 getting it because they can't get trucks down. 228 00:14:13.320 --> 00:14:19.120 So Mick, with the speaking on humanitarian still, do you 229 00:14:19.279 --> 00:14:21.360 know or do you think there might be a hesitation 230 00:14:21.559 --> 00:14:24.840 from humanitarian groups outside of the ones that are already 231 00:14:25.720 --> 00:14:28.200 set to do work there to come in because of 232 00:14:28.720 --> 00:14:33.200 past attacks on humanitarian you know, trucks and things like 233 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:35.080 that super risky. 234 00:14:35.279 --> 00:14:40.039 Absolutely, they've proven that they still are willing to go 235 00:14:40.120 --> 00:14:43.320 and risk at all. I think one of the issues 236 00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:47.200 is there's a resistance on the side of humanitarian groups 237 00:14:47.600 --> 00:14:50.840 to fully coordinate with the idea, which involves tracking. 238 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:52.240 Right, So. 239 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:56.960 Most of us know that, you know, coordination across the 240 00:14:56.960 --> 00:14:59.159 battle space is super important, and you don't want to 241 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:01.600 you don't want to blow that off because it's generally 242 00:15:01.639 --> 00:15:02.960 you that will pay the consequences. 243 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:04.039 And then that is what happened. 244 00:15:04.120 --> 00:15:07.120 I understand their issues, you know, from their perspective on 245 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:10.120 allowing themselves to be tracked. But that's one of the 246 00:15:10.159 --> 00:15:16.120 issues that leads to these deaths of humanitarian workers for sure. 247 00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:19.159 But it's very dangerous to work there, and I think 248 00:15:19.559 --> 00:15:22.600 the more we can do to coordinate, potentially like a 249 00:15:22.639 --> 00:15:27.480 military level coordination of movement in a battle space would 250 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:31.000 be beneficial, not only to the individuals who are brave 251 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:35.000 enough to go and serve this humanitarian purpose, but to 252 00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:38.360 get the aid to people right, because if everybody was 253 00:15:38.399 --> 00:15:42.080 confident that they wouldn't get attacked and accidentally on route, 254 00:15:42.080 --> 00:15:44.799 then there would be more people willing to do it right. 255 00:15:44.840 --> 00:15:47.840 So it is a it benefits the people on the 256 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:51.759 ground as well as the humanitarians that are bright enough 257 00:15:51.759 --> 00:15:51.919 to go. 258 00:15:51.960 --> 00:15:58.120 There about a thing about the hostages, like you said, 259 00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:00.519 like this possibility that there are multiple groups that are 260 00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:05.159 holding them, not just Hamas. Is Hamas like coordinating with 261 00:16:05.240 --> 00:16:09.120 them to try and get whoever, you know, whatever hostage 262 00:16:09.159 --> 00:16:11.440 they have out, because I remember when it first went off, 263 00:16:11.799 --> 00:16:14.039 we had Alex leats Us on and he said that 264 00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:18.600 there was real trouble, you know, locating the hostages because 265 00:16:18.639 --> 00:16:20.759 it's not just Hamas that's just one body. It's like 266 00:16:20.840 --> 00:16:26.559 multiple people that hold these people. Yes, so I'm assuming, yeah, 267 00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:27.320 go ahead please. 268 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:29.360 I think they believe some a lot of them being 269 00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:32.519 held by just families right in places that are the 270 00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:36.720 least likely to draw attention of you know, if they're 271 00:16:36.759 --> 00:16:40.080 with around a lot of Hamas fighters, that is going 272 00:16:40.159 --> 00:16:42.759 to draw attention just from the the you know, the 273 00:16:42.799 --> 00:16:45.279 sake of the battle right. So that's one of the 274 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:47.399 reasons why Hamas says they don't know how many people 275 00:16:47.440 --> 00:16:49.559 are still alive. They would have to send people around 276 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:53.000 to places they believe the hostages are being held to 277 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:56.879 make some kind of proof of life determination. So certainly 278 00:16:56.960 --> 00:16:59.879 not making excuses for him, but that is the difficulty 279 00:16:59.879 --> 00:17:03.080 of recovering. These hostages are spread all over the place, 280 00:17:03.120 --> 00:17:07.319 and often in places that wouldn't be considered for where 281 00:17:07.319 --> 00:17:08.240 a hostage would be. 282 00:17:10.839 --> 00:17:15.559 It's the internal There's a couple of things that are 283 00:17:15.559 --> 00:17:17.799 going to be really interesting to watch play out. One is, 284 00:17:19.039 --> 00:17:23.519 you know, as the Trump administration moves into position here, 285 00:17:24.759 --> 00:17:30.319 what their stance is going to be if the Israelis 286 00:17:30.359 --> 00:17:33.720 make the call that her Mass is not cooperating with 287 00:17:33.799 --> 00:17:36.359 the ceasefire and that all bets are off, and that 288 00:17:36.440 --> 00:17:38.920 the IDF will go in and finish the task of 289 00:17:38.920 --> 00:17:43.480 destroying her Maas. Now, Netanyahu tells his colleagues is right 290 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:49.839 wing colleagues who are left, notably Smoldrich, who represents the 291 00:17:50.039 --> 00:17:54.480 ultra orthodox MK. I think it's MK party. You know, 292 00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:57.160 he's telling him, Look, Harmas is going to break this 293 00:17:57.279 --> 00:18:00.960 deal and everything's going to be fine, because then we'll 294 00:18:01.000 --> 00:18:03.200 go in and finish the task. This is just kind 295 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:07.960 of a hiccup. But but you know, no one really 296 00:18:08.000 --> 00:18:12.880 knows what the Trump administration's status is on that. You know, 297 00:18:13.000 --> 00:18:17.599 it does seem as though Trump wants this to end, 298 00:18:18.160 --> 00:18:24.359 that it is an unnecessary distraction from from what he sees. 299 00:18:24.799 --> 00:18:28.279 And I'm you know, I don't have any insights here. 300 00:18:28.319 --> 00:18:31.160 I'm just saying from what he and his foreign policy 301 00:18:31.200 --> 00:18:34.319 team see as being dealing with the real adversary, which 302 00:18:34.440 --> 00:18:39.119 is Iran, and moving forward on achieving some kind of 303 00:18:39.319 --> 00:18:44.759 resolution there. But nevertheless, that's you know, that's kind of 304 00:18:44.759 --> 00:18:49.599 what Netna who believes in that and Smoldrich Smadrich called 305 00:18:49.839 --> 00:18:52.599 this week Netanya who a lying son of a liar, 306 00:18:52.920 --> 00:18:59.160 which is which is an interesting juxtaposition of adjectives and nouns. 307 00:19:01.519 --> 00:19:04.200 And so he's hanging on by a thread and something 308 00:19:04.279 --> 00:19:07.400 has been you know, something's been promised to him because 309 00:19:08.359 --> 00:19:13.440 who at the same time, against his will, has has 310 00:19:13.519 --> 00:19:16.079 started not well, he hasn't started, but Israeli government has 311 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:20.839 started to enforce the conscription of ultra Orthodox Jews and 312 00:19:20.920 --> 00:19:24.079 actually this week issued warrants for the arrest of those 313 00:19:24.119 --> 00:19:27.200 who are trying to evade conscription. This has been a 314 00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:30.240 live wire issue in Israeli a politics for some time, 315 00:19:30.720 --> 00:19:34.000 and Netna who opposed it, and it was the Supreme 316 00:19:34.039 --> 00:19:38.359 Court that overalled, you know what the government, the government's 317 00:19:39.680 --> 00:19:43.839 appeal that this was not the government's attempts to block it, 318 00:19:43.920 --> 00:19:46.759 I guess, is what I'm trying to say. And so 319 00:19:47.799 --> 00:19:54.720 you can see now who is dancing very He's not 320 00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:57.200 to mix metaphors, but he is walking a tightrope here, 321 00:19:57.200 --> 00:20:00.039 trying to trying to keep the right wing, trying to 322 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:03.279 keep the ultra orthodox within his coalition because those are 323 00:20:03.359 --> 00:20:07.359 his power base, rather than having to rely on centrist 324 00:20:07.640 --> 00:20:11.279 parties who will desert him probably as soon as the 325 00:20:11.960 --> 00:20:15.119 you know, as the the dealer is over. 326 00:20:20.160 --> 00:20:25.119 Yeah, now, I'm sorry, Andy, with this conscription, is that 327 00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:29.160 something that would still be in effect. Let's just say 328 00:20:29.279 --> 00:20:32.640 everything stopped today, the ceasefire held, there was no more fighting. 329 00:20:33.640 --> 00:20:36.400 Would that be something that would still be put into effect? 330 00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:40.119 Or was that only because of what happened on October seventh. 331 00:20:41.039 --> 00:20:46.200 No, October the seventh might have been a catalyst, you know, 332 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:51.039 the mass the mass mobilization of all the reservists I 333 00:20:51.359 --> 00:20:55.720 think probably made it very clearly apparent to a number 334 00:20:55.720 --> 00:20:59.119 of israelis that the burden of military service was not 335 00:20:59.160 --> 00:21:02.480 being equally shaped throughout the population. But this has been 336 00:21:02.519 --> 00:21:05.119 an issue that has been going on for at least 337 00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:11.000 five years because as you you guys probably know, the 338 00:21:11.000 --> 00:21:18.720 the already a population have under an understanding. I believe 339 00:21:18.759 --> 00:21:21.119 it's going all the way back to Benkurian when when 340 00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:24.039 they were kind of imported into Israel from Eastern Europe 341 00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:28.839 after the war to keep the traditions of Jewish religion alive. 342 00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:31.680 You know, the agreement back then was that they would 343 00:21:31.759 --> 00:21:36.200 not be called into service. But they have. You know, 344 00:21:36.240 --> 00:21:43.960 they've grown, they've multiplied, and and and so now it's 345 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:47.160 very you know, when you have a large segment of 346 00:21:47.200 --> 00:21:52.640 the population who is not serving in the military. And 347 00:21:52.440 --> 00:21:54.480 and I'm this isn't coming from me, It's coming from 348 00:21:54.480 --> 00:21:56.440 a lot of you know, Israeli friends, and their views 349 00:21:56.480 --> 00:22:01.119 are not really tangibly contributing to Israeli society in any 350 00:22:01.160 --> 00:22:04.519 other way. I mean, they continue the religion, yes, they 351 00:22:04.680 --> 00:22:09.359 study it and they propagate it, but they're not defending 352 00:22:09.400 --> 00:22:11.880 the country and they're not working at business that adds 353 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:16.039 to the GDP, and so it doesn't you know, modern 354 00:22:16.160 --> 00:22:22.759 Israel doesn't accept this exemption in the way that it 355 00:22:22.920 --> 00:22:26.240 You know that Ben Gurion intended it to be justified. 356 00:22:27.200 --> 00:22:33.319 So at lengthy answer, but yeah, this week one thousand, 357 00:22:34.440 --> 00:22:38.359 one thousand ultra Orthodox men received their draft I'm sorry, 358 00:22:38.440 --> 00:22:41.759 not this week. Here is months ago. It was back 359 00:22:41.799 --> 00:22:44.279 in last summer. Is in July they received their draft 360 00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:47.359 notices and now warrants are being issued for arrests. It 361 00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:51.319 doesn't I don't know how many who are being classified 362 00:22:51.359 --> 00:22:56.000 as deserters, but it's apparently a significant portion of those 363 00:22:56.079 --> 00:23:00.000 one thousand who are called up. And at the same time, 364 00:23:00.319 --> 00:23:03.480 the ultro Orthodox parties, of which of whom now of 365 00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:07.279 which smold Rich is a representative, oppose this and have 366 00:23:07.319 --> 00:23:08.440 a post it from the start. 367 00:23:10.200 --> 00:23:12.240 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 368 00:23:12.279 --> 00:23:14.799 you today about a way that you can help support 369 00:23:14.839 --> 00:23:18.359 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 370 00:23:18.640 --> 00:23:22.079 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 371 00:23:22.160 --> 00:23:25.400 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 372 00:23:25.480 --> 00:23:27.960 you sign up, you get access to all of our 373 00:23:28.000 --> 00:23:31.440 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 374 00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:35.240 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers. 375 00:23:35.960 --> 00:23:38.400 But this is the biggest and best way that you 376 00:23:38.400 --> 00:23:43.200 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 377 00:23:43.720 --> 00:23:46.160 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 378 00:23:46.160 --> 00:23:49.200 out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 379 00:23:51.359 --> 00:23:54.359 Yeah, so you guys, Andy, you mentioned like the Trump 380 00:23:54.480 --> 00:24:01.000 administration's real aim in the region is Iran, And last 381 00:24:01.039 --> 00:24:04.519 week I saw a report where France, Germany and the 382 00:24:04.599 --> 00:24:08.200 UK met with her Iran to talk about whether it's 383 00:24:08.200 --> 00:24:10.640 options or what's gonna happen if they do get hit 384 00:24:10.680 --> 00:24:14.279 in terms of like their nuclear capabilities, and like, there 385 00:24:14.359 --> 00:24:16.640 was some speculation that Israel had a plan ready to 386 00:24:16.680 --> 00:24:19.839 go and they're waiting for the Trump administration to come in, 387 00:24:20.079 --> 00:24:23.119 just because I'm assuming the Trump administration would probably be 388 00:24:23.160 --> 00:24:28.880 a bit more lenient at least in the press. Where 389 00:24:29.240 --> 00:24:31.440 have you guys heard anything about that in terms of 390 00:24:31.480 --> 00:24:33.680 like where we're at in terms like it sounds like 391 00:24:33.720 --> 00:24:35.680 it's just ready to go and they're just waiting to 392 00:24:35.920 --> 00:24:37.200 hit the button basically. 393 00:24:38.759 --> 00:24:41.880 So there's there's been a plan of course by Israel 394 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:45.359 for the day that they believe that Iron's in a 395 00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:49.480 breakout mode toward a deliverable nuclear weapon. I think it's 396 00:24:49.519 --> 00:24:51.960 poortant to point out that yes, they could get four 397 00:24:54.279 --> 00:24:57.039 four weapons, or at least enough leugh material to make 398 00:24:57.079 --> 00:24:59.519 four weapons, but then they have to and I'm not 399 00:24:59.559 --> 00:25:02.000 a nuclear bomb expert, but they have to come up 400 00:25:02.039 --> 00:25:05.160 with the triggering mechanisms to make it functional, right, And 401 00:25:05.599 --> 00:25:08.160