Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Aazam. We get
Speaker 1: the full crew here, Ady Milburn, Jason Lyons, mcmulroy, and myself.
Speaker 1: A lot going on, first and foremost, the Gaza ceasefires
Speaker 1: currently underway as we're shooting this right now, twelve o'clock
Speaker 1: Eastern on Sunday. What are you guys looking at, Mick?
Speaker 1: I know you've been tracking this pretty tight.
Speaker 2: Yes, tracking it from both the ABC perspective and the
Speaker 2: fact that my group is doing humanitarian aid in Gaza
Speaker 2: right now. So obviously it's a great, a great thing
Speaker 2: that we have a ceasar that's now coming to place.
Speaker 2: It was very tedious and tension written because neither side
Speaker 2: trusts each other at all. I mean, they're more lenemies
Speaker 2: in the purest definition of word, so there was some
Speaker 2: fits and starts. One of the biggest issues I think
Speaker 2: that's been evolving around these negotiations is the lack of
Speaker 2: clarity of who's alive and who's not right. Normally, when
Speaker 2: you do hostage negotiations start off with the proof of life,
Speaker 2: so you know what you're negotiating for. So it's still
Speaker 2: unclear to the Israeli side and the mediators for that matter.
Speaker 2: You know, out of the ninety seven that are still left,
Speaker 2: how many are still alive. And it's believed that even
Speaker 2: in the first thirty, which is women, elderly and children,
Speaker 2: that there are already going to be remains rather than
Speaker 2: people coming out. So where we are right now, the
Speaker 2: three females that Israeli hostages have been relieved, they have
Speaker 2: been checked by the Red Cross, and they're in the
Speaker 2: process of free patriation. At the same time, there's about
Speaker 2: ninety Palestinian prisoners, some of which were in prison for
Speaker 2: a life. A couple actually committed significant terrorist acts that
Speaker 2: killed inno cent civilians. They're in the process of being moved,
Speaker 2: and that's even more complicated. You know, where are they going?
Speaker 2: I don't even sure where they are and I follow
Speaker 2: this pretty closely. Some might actually end up in out
Speaker 2: of the country and Katar in Egypt is what part
Speaker 2: of the gatter is. And then at this all, with
Speaker 2: all that going on, you have the idea of having
Speaker 2: to relocate from population centers, not all the way out.
Speaker 2: And there's supposed to be six hundred trucks per day
Speaker 2: of humanitarianists since much needed going into Gaza. Three hundred
Speaker 2: are supposed to go all the way to the north,
Speaker 2: so that is a logistical difficulty because of the damage
Speaker 2: to the infrastructure, and of course a large portion of
Speaker 2: that is fuel that is needed for the hospitals to
Speaker 2: be able to get up and running, which is also
Speaker 2: very much needed. And this is all happening at the
Speaker 2: same time, and it's going to go day by day.
Speaker 2: We should all hope that it continues to go without
Speaker 2: any disruption, but there's a big chance that there could
Speaker 2: be disruption because of this complicated manner. And of course,
Speaker 2: just to add to that, not everybody listens to Hamas.
Speaker 2: There's plenty of theiatists in the in there that you know,
Speaker 2: might want to disrupt this for whatever reason, and if
Speaker 2: they can do something substantial enough, it's potential. So this
Speaker 2: is a very tenuous situation.
Speaker 3: Andy, Yeah, I mean, well mix uh mixed the expert
Speaker 3: on this. I've just been reading some of the kind
Speaker 3: of the human interest side of the story too, when
Speaker 3: one of the first three women is as actually a
Speaker 3: British citizen, Jewel national, and so the British papers have been,
Speaker 3: uh you know, going wild over this, and uh you know,
Speaker 3: I mean there's some some quite touching coverage. Evidently she
Speaker 3: has been a terwrist strength as a hostage. Other hostages
Speaker 3: who are released have said that, and not simply be
Speaker 3: because she's British, but Tottenham Hotspur football club, which I
Speaker 3: believe is you know, another football club, not one of
Speaker 3: the best.
Speaker 1: They're pretty close out there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm joking. It's just for all the Spurs fans
Speaker 3: who are deplorable human beings. But aside from that, because
Speaker 3: she was a fan of Spurs, you know, they've been
Speaker 3: releasing yellow balloons during their matches and making announcements, you know,
Speaker 3: throughout the hostage crisis on her status and you know,
Speaker 3: kudos to the The other thing is, you know, to
Speaker 3: mixed point are the Palestinians being released. And I think
Speaker 3: this plays into Sinoa's original calculus. Now, remember when Sinoa
Speaker 3: was released from jail in twenty eleven, it was part
Speaker 3: of a hostage release, and you know there were thousand,
Speaker 3: I believe a thousand Palestinians released in return for the
Speaker 3: body of Gilad Shahalil, who was an Israeli soldier who'd
Speaker 3: been kidnapped and killed. And so Sinoa was calculus through
Speaker 3: all of this was partly based on his own experiences.
Speaker 3: We talked about Sinwha's time and in Israeli jail, how
Speaker 3: he studied through the British Open University courses on Israel,
Speaker 3: on the Zionism. But he's also a keen study analyst
Speaker 3: of Israeli national psychology, speaks very fluent Hebrew, and so
Speaker 3: it's ironic, you know, all this time later, a number
Speaker 3: of deaths later, since fifteen months into it, and you
Speaker 3: know his predictions are kind of coming true. That's I mean, listen,
Speaker 3: from a personal perspective, I'm for this cease far, I'm
Speaker 3: not criticizing it. But some of these high profile prisoner
Speaker 3: has been released are indeed high profile. One of the
Speaker 3: carriers of Baby, who's a senior member of the Alaxa
Speaker 3: Martis Brigades on the West Bank. He'd you know, he'd
Speaker 3: escaped from a Gilbauer prison back in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 3: was caught again and he was behind a waiver of
Speaker 3: bombings in Jerusalem. There's another prisoner also who's been held
Speaker 3: personally responsible for forty two deaths of civilians and bombing
Speaker 3: attacks back in this second Infidata Defarda. So again this
Speaker 3: kind of plays into Nettner, whose stands on the hostages.
Speaker 3: In other words, his apparent unwillingness to negotiate and to
Speaker 3: you know, any terms of ceasefire. And I'm not suggesting
Speaker 3: he's driven by principle. He's driven by trying to hold
Speaker 3: his coalition together. But it runs, it flies in the
Speaker 3: face of of kind of this really national ethos, which
Speaker 3: is regardless of cost, to bring back their own alive
Speaker 3: or dead. And it'll be interesting to see what happens
Speaker 3: to his coalition now that Ben Gavier has finally finally quit.
Speaker 3: He's packed up as toys that Ben Gavier represents the
Speaker 3: Jewish Power Party and which is of course on the
Speaker 3: on the on the right wing. But it looks as
Speaker 3: though because the the consensus in favor of this ceasefire
Speaker 3: is is I won't say it's universal, but it seems
Speaker 3: as though a majority of Israeli support it. And there
Speaker 3: have been parties in central on the center who have
Speaker 3: offered to help support Natanna whose coalition in order to
Speaker 3: carry this through, which is an extraordinary because Netnio, who
Speaker 3: was hated by these people, I mean, he's hated by
Speaker 3: a significant part of Israel. But the fact that they're
Speaker 3: willing to align with them in order to make this
Speaker 3: ceasefi deal go through. Just shows the you know, kind
Speaker 3: of a level of hope and expectation that a sizable
Speaker 3: chunk of the Israeli public places on this ceasefire and
Speaker 3: the return of the hostages.
Speaker 4: So I need to I want to ask, and I
Speaker 4: guess I'm not sure if either of you know this,
Speaker 4: but is it normal for that? I guess what seems
Speaker 4: like a lopsided exchange, like three of is the Israelis
Speaker 4: for like three hundred of theirs.
Speaker 3: Is that normal? Yeah? Twenty eleven, Yeah, twenty eleven. I
Speaker 3: think it was. I forget how many it was for
Speaker 3: one thousand prisoners, but it was in I think it
Speaker 3: was like in the double digits.
Speaker 2: Really, yeah, And it seems like the ratio this time
Speaker 2: is thirty to one. Okay, Right, So there's three coming
Speaker 2: out today and there's ninety being released, and some of
Speaker 2: them are I think out of the pool that might
Speaker 2: be released in total over one thousand, there's about one
Speaker 2: hundred and ninety two hundred that have serious life sentence.
Speaker 2: Like Andy was just talking about these these people that
Speaker 2: are so it's it's causing some tension, of course with
Speaker 2: the family members of the people that were killed. But ultimately,
Speaker 2: I think for the greater good to get the people
Speaker 2: that you know, there's the first thirty three include children
Speaker 2: for Chris.
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's I mean.
Speaker 2: It's I can see how the families of the ones
Speaker 2: that were killed in the past will be upset. But
Speaker 2: you know, there's very difficult decisions to be made, and
Speaker 2: it's going to be even more difficult to go from
Speaker 2: phase one into phase two because phase two is a
Speaker 2: full withdrawal idef from Kaza, right, So that is that
Speaker 2: is a huge political decision that's going to be fraught
Speaker 2: with you know, collapsings of governments and and it of
Speaker 2: course makes it more difficul It's a moss then decides
Speaker 2: to start fighting again if they can regain the capacity
Speaker 2: because after all, there was a ceasefire on October.
Speaker 3: Sixth, right, So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but right now they're focused on getting through Phase
Speaker 2: one and getting these thirty three people out.
Speaker 1: So can we break down a little bit of what
Speaker 1: the parameters of the ceasefires? Is there a day count
Speaker 1: on it, like how they had in Lebanons, Hesbola and
Speaker 1: stuff like that, Like what what does it look like
Speaker 1: the thirty three hostages. Obviously, like, what are the what's
Speaker 1: phase one two?
Speaker 2: It's so it's forty two days phase one to get
Speaker 2: thirty three hostages out when it's thirty thirty Palestinian prisoners
Speaker 2: per hostage. I don't think the amount of truck aid
Speaker 2: going in changes. I think at six hundred and eighty
Speaker 2: per day every day. There is some withdrawal requirements for
Speaker 2: the idef out of population centers, but what's.
Speaker 4: Another part of it.
Speaker 2: That's that's that's the one I know, and then you
Speaker 2: go to second phase. It's a full withdrawal, and then
Speaker 2: third phase in generally speaking, is the reconstruction of Gaza, right, so,
Speaker 2: which is going to take decades. So if you're looking
Speaker 2: at the overall strategy of a MOSS, I heard this
Speaker 2: this morning which I thought was kind of interesting. Pre
Speaker 2: October seventh, the economy of Gaza was essentially equal to Morocco. Right,
Speaker 2: So there's this concept that it was an open prison
Speaker 2: and everything was without hope, but it wasn't actually the case. Right,
Speaker 2: So a MOSS for their strategy, is completely devastated Gaza.
Speaker 2: It's about eighty five to ninety percent uninhabitable structures, and
Speaker 2: I think I've seen an estimated fifty to sixty billion
Speaker 2: dollars in required to reconstruct. That'll take ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 2: That's what that's where they put their people. And forty
Speaker 2: six thousand dead right.
Speaker 1: Now, what's the situation on the ground look like?
Speaker 3: Humanitarian it's very dire.
Speaker 2: I mean, we've all heard the most. I don't think
Speaker 2: there's any functional hospital right now, partly because there's no generations,
Speaker 2: no power, so the stuff that you need for any
Speaker 2: kind of advanced medical care is not there. The medicines, vaccinating,
Speaker 2: vaccinations have been a problem, so there's a concern that
Speaker 2: you know, otherwise diseases that would not be coming back
Speaker 2: are coming back. And of course it's winter there, so
Speaker 2: there's a big problem with exposure and food. I mean,
Speaker 2: the food is just not flowing in but it should
Speaker 2: now and I think that from what my understanding, and
Speaker 2: we were just talking to our team this morning, there's
Speaker 2: two things they need to get the food in. They
Speaker 2: have to have a place to store it, right because
Speaker 2: if they don't, people are hoarding it, people are stealing it,
Speaker 2: people are then selling it, and you know, the people
Speaker 2: who don't have money, So there has to be a
Speaker 2: rebuilding of some of the infrastructure that the UN specifically
Speaker 2: used to use to hold large food stores to get
Speaker 2: them in there, so it calms down the population. They
Speaker 2: can look over there and see that there's enough food
Speaker 2: for the next two months, so they don't need to
Speaker 2: fight each other for this bag of rice or attack
Speaker 2: the truck driver. That's this all needs to happen simultaneously,
Speaker 2: so it can kind of decompress the situation but also
Speaker 2: get food, not just the other issue. And I know
Speaker 2: get'll deep on this, but when they come into one
Speaker 2: particular ground entry point, it's very difficult to convince the
Speaker 2: population that it goes through first that they should let
Speaker 2: it go because there's a population further away than them
Speaker 2: they're starving. It's kind of a situation where it's a
Speaker 2: you know, every man woman for himself, kind of a
Speaker 2: darwinning type thing. So they have to come in from
Speaker 2: different directions. I would say that there's still a need
Speaker 2: for a maritime cort or just to be done different
Speaker 2: than it was in the first place, because you can
Speaker 2: come in a different poluting the north and really bring
Speaker 2: in large scale humanitarian assistance to places that just aren't
Speaker 2: getting it because they can't get trucks down.
Speaker 4: So Mick, with the speaking on humanitarian still, do you
Speaker 4: know or do you think there might be a hesitation
Speaker 4: from humanitarian groups outside of the ones that are already
Speaker 4: set to do work there to come in because of
Speaker 4: past attacks on humanitarian you know, trucks and things like
Speaker 4: that super risky.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, they've proven that they still are willing to go
Speaker 2: and risk at all. I think one of the issues
Speaker 2: is there's a resistance on the side of humanitarian groups
Speaker 2: to fully coordinate with the idea, which involves tracking.
Speaker 3: Right, So.
Speaker 2: Most of us know that, you know, coordination across the
Speaker 2: battle space is super important, and you don't want to
Speaker 2: you don't want to blow that off because it's generally
Speaker 2: you that will pay the consequences.
Speaker 3: And then that is what happened.
Speaker 2: I understand their issues, you know, from their perspective on
Speaker 2: allowing themselves to be tracked. But that's one of the
Speaker 2: issues that leads to these deaths of humanitarian workers for sure.
Speaker 2: But it's very dangerous to work there, and I think
Speaker 2: the more we can do to coordinate, potentially like a
Speaker 2: military level coordination of movement in a battle space would
Speaker 2: be beneficial, not only to the individuals who are brave
Speaker 2: enough to go and serve this humanitarian purpose, but to
Speaker 2: get the aid to people right, because if everybody was
Speaker 2: confident that they wouldn't get attacked and accidentally on route,
Speaker 2: then there would be more people willing to do it right.
Speaker 2: So it is a it benefits the people on the
Speaker 2: ground as well as the humanitarians that are bright enough
Speaker 2: to go.
Speaker 1: There about a thing about the hostages, like you said,
Speaker 1: like this possibility that there are multiple groups that are
Speaker 1: holding them, not just Hamas. Is Hamas like coordinating with
Speaker 1: them to try and get whoever, you know, whatever hostage
Speaker 1: they have out, because I remember when it first went off,
Speaker 1: we had Alex leats Us on and he said that
Speaker 1: there was real trouble, you know, locating the hostages because
Speaker 1: it's not just Hamas that's just one body. It's like
Speaker 1: multiple people that hold these people. Yes, so I'm assuming, yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead please.
Speaker 2: I think they believe some a lot of them being
Speaker 2: held by just families right in places that are the
Speaker 2: least likely to draw attention of you know, if they're
Speaker 2: with around a lot of Hamas fighters, that is going
Speaker 2: to draw attention just from the the you know, the
Speaker 2: sake of the battle right. So that's one of the
Speaker 2: reasons why Hamas says they don't know how many people
Speaker 2: are still alive. They would have to send people around
Speaker 2: to places they believe the hostages are being held to
Speaker 2: make some kind of proof of life determination. So certainly
Speaker 2: not making excuses for him, but that is the difficulty
Speaker 2: of recovering. These hostages are spread all over the place,
Speaker 2: and often in places that wouldn't be considered for where
Speaker 2: a hostage would be.
Speaker 3: It's the internal There's a couple of things that are
Speaker 3: going to be really interesting to watch play out. One is,
Speaker 3: you know, as the Trump administration moves into position here,
Speaker 3: what their stance is going to be if the Israelis
Speaker 3: make the call that her Mass is not cooperating with
Speaker 3: the ceasefire and that all bets are off, and that
Speaker 3: the IDF will go in and finish the task of
Speaker 3: destroying her Maas. Now, Netanyahu tells his colleagues is right
Speaker 3: wing colleagues who are left, notably Smoldrich, who represents the
Speaker 3: ultra orthodox MK. I think it's MK party. You know,
Speaker 3: he's telling him, Look, Harmas is going to break this
Speaker 3: deal and everything's going to be fine, because then we'll
Speaker 3: go in and finish the task. This is just kind
Speaker 3: of a hiccup. But but you know, no one really
Speaker 3: knows what the Trump administration's status is on that. You know,
Speaker 3: it does seem as though Trump wants this to end,
Speaker 3: that it is an unnecessary distraction from from what he sees.
Speaker 3: And I'm you know, I don't have any insights here.
Speaker 3: I'm just saying from what he and his foreign policy
Speaker 3: team see as being dealing with the real adversary, which
Speaker 3: is Iran, and moving forward on achieving some kind of
Speaker 3: resolution there. But nevertheless, that's you know, that's kind of
Speaker 3: what Netna who believes in that and Smoldrich Smadrich called
Speaker 3: this week Netanya who a lying son of a liar,
Speaker 3: which is which is an interesting juxtaposition of adjectives and nouns.
Speaker 3: And so he's hanging on by a thread and something
Speaker 3: has been you know, something's been promised to him because
Speaker 3: who at the same time, against his will, has has
Speaker 3: started not well, he hasn't started, but Israeli government has
Speaker 3: started to enforce the conscription of ultra Orthodox Jews and
Speaker 3: actually this week issued warrants for the arrest of those
Speaker 3: who are trying to evade conscription. This has been a
Speaker 3: live wire issue in Israeli a politics for some time,
Speaker 3: and Netna who opposed it, and it was the Supreme
Speaker 3: Court that overalled, you know what the government, the government's
Speaker 3: appeal that this was not the government's attempts to block it,
Speaker 3: I guess, is what I'm trying to say. And so
Speaker 3: you can see now who is dancing very He's not
Speaker 3: to mix metaphors, but he is walking a tightrope here,
Speaker 3: trying to trying to keep the right wing, trying to
Speaker 3: keep the ultra orthodox within his coalition because those are
Speaker 3: his power base, rather than having to rely on centrist
Speaker 3: parties who will desert him probably as soon as the
Speaker 3: you know, as the the dealer is over.
Speaker 4: Yeah, now, I'm sorry, Andy, with this conscription, is that
Speaker 4: something that would still be in effect. Let's just say
Speaker 4: everything stopped today, the ceasefire held, there was no more fighting.
Speaker 4: Would that be something that would still be put into effect?
Speaker 4: Or was that only because of what happened on October seventh.
Speaker 3: No, October the seventh might have been a catalyst, you know,
Speaker 3: the mass the mass mobilization of all the reservists I
Speaker 3: think probably made it very clearly apparent to a number
Speaker 3: of israelis that the burden of military service was not
Speaker 3: being equally shaped throughout the population. But this has been
Speaker 3: an issue that has been going on for at least
Speaker 3: five years because as you you guys probably know, the
Speaker 3: the already a population have under an understanding. I believe
Speaker 3: it's going all the way back to Benkurian when when
Speaker 3: they were kind of imported into Israel from Eastern Europe
Speaker 3: after the war to keep the traditions of Jewish religion alive.
Speaker 3: You know, the agreement back then was that they would
Speaker 3: not be called into service. But they have. You know,
Speaker 3: they've grown, they've multiplied, and and and so now it's
Speaker 3: very you know, when you have a large segment of
Speaker 3: the population who is not serving in the military. And
Speaker 3: and I'm this isn't coming from me, It's coming from
Speaker 3: a lot of you know, Israeli friends, and their views
Speaker 3: are not really tangibly contributing to Israeli society in any
Speaker 3: other way. I mean, they continue the religion, yes, they
Speaker 3: study it and they propagate it, but they're not defending
Speaker 3: the country and they're not working at business that adds
Speaker 3: to the GDP, and so it doesn't you know, modern
Speaker 3: Israel doesn't accept this exemption in the way that it
Speaker 3: You know that Ben Gurion intended it to be justified.
Speaker 3: So at lengthy answer, but yeah, this week one thousand,
Speaker 3: one thousand ultra Orthodox men received their draft I'm sorry,
Speaker 3: not this week. Here is months ago. It was back
Speaker 3: in last summer. Is in July they received their draft
Speaker 3: notices and now warrants are being issued for arrests. It
Speaker 3: doesn't I don't know how many who are being classified
Speaker 3: as deserters, but it's apparently a significant portion of those
Speaker 3: one thousand who are called up. And at the same time,
Speaker 3: the ultro Orthodox parties, of which of whom now of
Speaker 3: which smold Rich is a representative, oppose this and have
Speaker 3: a post it from the start.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you guys, Andy, you mentioned like the Trump
Speaker 1: administration's real aim in the region is Iran, And last
Speaker 1: week I saw a report where France, Germany and the
Speaker 1: UK met with her Iran to talk about whether it's
Speaker 1: options or what's gonna happen if they do get hit
Speaker 1: in terms of like their nuclear capabilities, and like, there
Speaker 1: was some speculation that Israel had a plan ready to
Speaker 1: go and they're waiting for the Trump administration to come in,
Speaker 1: just because I'm assuming the Trump administration would probably be
Speaker 1: a bit more lenient at least in the press. Where
Speaker 1: have you guys heard anything about that in terms of
Speaker 1: like where we're at in terms like it sounds like
Speaker 1: it's just ready to go and they're just waiting to
Speaker 1: hit the button basically.
Speaker 2: So there's there's been a plan of course by Israel
Speaker 2: for the day that they believe that Iron's in a
Speaker 2: breakout mode toward a deliverable nuclear weapon. I think it's
Speaker 2: poortant to point out that yes, they could get four
Speaker 2: four weapons, or at least enough leugh material to make
Speaker 2: four weapons, but then they have to and I'm not
Speaker 2: a nuclear bomb expert, but they have to come up
Speaker 2: with the triggering mechanisms to make it functional, right, And
Speaker 2: I've heard up in open source, I've heard up to
Speaker 2: a year that would take. But they there is a plan,
Speaker 2: and I do believe it's being discussed more more openly
Speaker 2: and more more along the idea that it will happen
Speaker 2: if Iran, if there's enough intelligence that indicates that's where
Speaker 2: it's heading. And I think the Biden administration was talking
Speaker 2: about it with Israel and now the incoming administration was
Speaker 2: probably part of those conversations during this transition. And we'll see,
Speaker 2: but it could be that they're openly talking about it
Speaker 2: or at least talking to media about it, because they
Speaker 2: want Iran to look at that and say, Okay, you know,
Speaker 2: we've been We've had several strategic setbacks, right, We're out
Speaker 2: of Syria for the most part. We've seen hesbelon a
Speaker 2: Mos decimated. We've shown that we can't actually conventionally fight Israel,
Speaker 2: and we don't really have any air Messi defense systems,
Speaker 2: as three hundred have been destroyed by Israel. Maybe it's
Speaker 2: an opportunity to go back in the negotiations for an
Speaker 2: agreement that President Trump would find acceptable and that would
Speaker 2: likely include all the proxy operations, which wasn't included in
Speaker 2: the first agreement, the JCPOA, which is why they got criticized.
Speaker 2: So this might be real in the sense that they
Speaker 2: are really looking at you know, how are we going
Speaker 2: to do this if we need to. But it also
Speaker 2: might be at least in part, to really send a
Speaker 2: message to Iron like now's the time to try to
Speaker 2: come up with a new agreement, and it might be effective.
Speaker 2: They might come to the back of the table because
Speaker 2: they are not doing well economically. The regime is incredibly unpopular,
Speaker 2: and they've proven that they really don't have much bite
Speaker 2: to their bark. They're pretty much all barked military.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm assuming here and I'm speculating, would Israel
Speaker 1: really want another deal even if it involved proxy forces?
Speaker 6: I do think, oh sorry, all right, yeah, just quickly
Speaker 6: and then over you any I think if you include
Speaker 6: the proxy forces, it would be a difficult discussion of
Speaker 6: the United States going Okay, So they're not getting nuke
Speaker 6: and they stop bunning the proxy forces and you're against it, right,
Speaker 6: So like, what is it you want?
Speaker 2: I mean, do you want the conflict with Iran? I
Speaker 2: don't think that would be good for the region, right
Speaker 2: or you? So I think if you include that it'll
Speaker 2: change the discussion. I'm sure there will be some people there,
Speaker 2: but we have to focus.
Speaker 3: On the majority because that's what counts ay. Yeah, no,
Speaker 3: I was going to say, I don't think there's gonna
Speaker 3: be I don't think there's much room to maneuver if
Speaker 3: if the Uranians do agree, of course they've got to
Speaker 3: convince the negotiating parties of a means to monitor this.
Speaker 3: But if you Iranians agree to prevent to stop in
Speaker 3: funding Hosbolla in particular, and of course hamas Uh and
Speaker 3: and you know, from US perspective, the Hohoi's two, then
Speaker 3: I think that'll keep you know, all parties Israel, Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 3: United States happy. But it Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 3: Certainly there as Mix says they're on the ropes, but
Speaker 3: that is such a that's such a central part of
Speaker 3: their foreign policy, right, because that is how that's how
Speaker 3: they exert influence and for Coots force the you know,
Speaker 3: the I O. G. C. And Mania himself to to
Speaker 3: kind of give up on that as almost unimaginable propagation
Speaker 3: overseas of of of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the
Speaker 3: destruction of Israel have been you know, it's been a
Speaker 3: an open strategy of on. It was a shed strategy
Speaker 3: with its proxies. To step back from that, it's going
Speaker 3: to be a tough call on that pont and perhaps
Speaker 3: the threat of a strike on the NUCIA program is
Speaker 3: the only thing that will bring them to it.
Speaker 1: All right, Going back to the cease fire for a second,
Speaker 1: I want a little bit of speculation from you guys.
Speaker 1: Does it hold, does the fort that we get to
Speaker 1: the fort not even hold? Does it get to the
Speaker 1: forty two days?
Speaker 2: M So, I think it's in both sides interest to
Speaker 2: get to the end of the forty two days if done,
Speaker 2: if it's if it's done by the letter of the agreement.
Speaker 2: So part of it's just hopeful optimism, but I think
Speaker 2: is a good chance. After that, it's really tough because
Speaker 2: it I mean, if you were at Israel shoes, you're
Speaker 2: gonna withdraw the idea, who who's spilling the security vacume? Right?
Speaker 2: So my understanding, you know, I've been here talking to
Speaker 2: a lot of folks about policy stuff, and I'll so
Speaker 2: what we're doing overseas. My understanding is the US has
Speaker 2: gone to golf allies and talked about a multinational security
Speaker 2: force that could potentially bridge the gap between you know,
Speaker 2: obviously not a OAS and something that's Palestinian but not
Speaker 2: ass and they've all said held out right, So then
Speaker 2: who's going to fill the security vacuum? And it's just
Speaker 2: for practical reasons, that's that's a tough answer and a
Speaker 2: tough decision to make. You know, then is it going
Speaker 2: to be a private company, is it going to be
Speaker 2: at multiple private companies? And what would be acceptable? What
Speaker 2: kind of outside are they going to train Palestinians? I mean,
Speaker 2: it's and then I mean that all has to happen
Speaker 2: before we go into the second phase or or there's
Speaker 2: no security that the Israelis would be comfortable with. So
Speaker 2: I don't want to say we will not get into
Speaker 2: the second phase because that just seems defeat us. But
Speaker 2: the challenges are very real and it's it's it's hard
Speaker 2: to it's it's hard to see that unless the international community,
Speaker 2: which says a lot and does little, steps up in
Speaker 2: some capacity, there will be a very difficult decision with
Speaker 2: the idea to put the idea out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, especially especially since all these prisoners have just been released,
Speaker 3: to include two hundred with you know who are serving
Speaker 3: multiple life sentences each.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: So, yes, Hamas's leadership has been destroyed, but Har Mass
Speaker 3: has not been destroyed. And that's clearly evident in some
Speaker 3: of the some of the film that we're seeing, some
Speaker 3: of the video clips of Har Mass fighters driving through
Speaker 3: carn Unice and being cheered by the crowds, and and
Speaker 3: of course that's predictable. You don't. You can't destroy an
Speaker 3: organization like Hamas by just whack a moll, by sheer destruction.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's not the way to go about it.
Speaker 3: We've talked about this over and over and who knows
Speaker 3: how many how many nason Her Mass fighters they have
Speaker 3: created and bye by doing that. You know, if you've
Speaker 3: seen your whole family killed by the Israelis, you might
Speaker 3: have been offensive of before. But I think anyone here
Speaker 3: on this video call, when most of our audience would
Speaker 3: probably want to pick up a gun and get vengeance
Speaker 3: because that's human nature. And now and you know, now
Speaker 3: you've got all these Embroier leaders returning to the fray.
Speaker 3: It just doesn't you know, it doesn't bode well. The
Speaker 3: destruction of her mask was always just an empty phrase.
Speaker 3: And I don't think Israel is any nearer now than
Speaker 3: it ever was to doing that. Yikes.
Speaker 1: I mean also to completely agree with you, Andy, forty
Speaker 1: two days to phase two, and you need some sort
Speaker 1: of security for us there. That's not the IDF, and
Speaker 1: they're not in the plan in like you should be,
Speaker 1: not even in the beginning talks of it. You should
Speaker 1: be like in the middle of like logistics out it's
Speaker 1: gonna work. Who's going to be there? And there's nobody.
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, I hope we get to I hope
Speaker 1: we get hostages out. I hope we get humanitarian aid there.
Speaker 1: But to think that like the idea is gonna pull
Speaker 1: out in phase two is madness because there's nobody else.
Speaker 1: Who else is going to do I don't think there's US. Uh,
Speaker 1: there's political capital even with Trump to get to bring
Speaker 1: the US troops in there.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 1: And if if the people, if other countries in the
Speaker 1: Middle East aren't willing to step up. It's like, who
Speaker 1: the fuck is gonna do this?
Speaker 3: I think it's it's just such a yah, such a
Speaker 3: a problematic situation because you know, first of all, I mean,
Speaker 3: they the the only the only potential realistic solution would
Speaker 3: be to couple together some of the you know, more
Speaker 3: powerful and and uh and richer families among the Palestinians
Speaker 3: in Gaza to you know, to to oppose the rebirth
Speaker 3: of her mask. But that's that's impractical. These yes, there
Speaker 3: are a lot of influential families, but they've had to
Speaker 3: collaborate with Hamas to this point simply to survive. And
Speaker 3: then putting a peace force, peacekeeping force into there is
Speaker 3: all risk and no gain as far as certainly, as
Speaker 3: far as you know, the Arab countries are are concerned,
Speaker 3: and the Israelis aren't a peacekeeping force, you know, they
Speaker 3: have they have zero credibility in that regard, and certainly
Speaker 3: among the Palestinians at this stage, and they don't want
Speaker 3: to do it, nor will they contribute to the to
Speaker 3: the rebuilding Gaza. They don't subscribe to, you know, our
Speaker 3: philosophy or colon Palace philosophy of if you break the
Speaker 3: China or whatever it was by the China Shop, right,
Speaker 3: you've got to help rebuild it. So there's simply no
Speaker 3: one who who who's going to be willing to step
Speaker 3: up to the plate and sadly or not sadly, and
Speaker 3: what's going look to the United States to take leadership
Speaker 3: on this. I can't see the European Union doing that.
Speaker 3: This and I and with the administration coming in that's
Speaker 3: disavowed involvement in any such the operation overseas. It just yeah,
Speaker 3: there's no that doesn't seem to be any solution at all.
Speaker 1: Is there any political will or capital in the UN
Speaker 1: where like you can get nothing?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, the UN probably would have to be
Speaker 2: part of it and certainly maybe.
Speaker 3: Even lead it.
Speaker 2: But to Andy's point and all of our points, there's
Speaker 2: no country is going to want to Roger up. It's
Speaker 2: certainly not USA. This is this is nation nation building
Speaker 2: of course, because yeah, we build Gosla, But could a
Speaker 2: private company that's falling that falls under the authority and
Speaker 2: legitimacy of the UN. I mean, as a guy who
Speaker 2: tries to look for some solution because if not, it's
Speaker 2: basically going to be a continuous cycle of violence. I
Speaker 2: think they have to look at it. You know, the
Speaker 2: private security companies do get you know, bad reps, but
Speaker 2: they can serve a purpose if they're if they're overseen correctly,
Speaker 2: and if they fall under the legitimacy of an international
Speaker 2: organization like the Unitedations. And if they don't do that,
Speaker 2: I don't know what the other options are because it's
Speaker 2: Israel is simply not going to leave a security balcon
Speaker 2: which as will absolutely fill immediately if if they just
Speaker 2: precipitously leave. So yeah, it's a challenge that the world
Speaker 2: should look at as one to solve.
Speaker 3: Not just right.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, I'm happy to cease fires at least
Speaker 1: get in the forty two days, you know, knock on
Speaker 1: it hopefully, and you know, kids kind of stopped starving
Speaker 1: in the fucking street, you know what I mean, Like
Speaker 1: where there's this basic humanitarian aid getting there and hospitals
Speaker 1: getting up and running and stuff like that. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is uh, rock in the hard place. And I'm having
Speaker 1: a hard time picturing a guy like Eric Prince sending
Speaker 1: his boys in to Gaza to like start helping prop
Speaker 1: up and keep security going. On maybe there is another
Speaker 1: person outside of Harrik Prince. I hope to God that
Speaker 1: I'll be able to do it. If the private option
Speaker 1: was was the one that got the most steam.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I keep going back to these prisoner this prisoner
Speaker 4: exchange or the exchange thing. I wouldn't put it past
Speaker 4: the Israelis to as they're releasing these guys to give
Speaker 4: them a wink and say we'll see you again soon,
Speaker 4: because I don't see them just letting them go and
Speaker 4: run around, run amuck, you know, And it's kind of
Speaker 4: like this weird cycle. It's like we let them go,
Speaker 4: they start their ship again, we capture or kill them.
Speaker 4: It starts tension, you know. It's just I don't know.
Speaker 4: I just don't see these people, even if they go
Speaker 4: to other countries, I don't see them living much longer,
Speaker 4: you know, or it just being forgiven and let go.
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong on that.
Speaker 3: No, certainly there's a history of following up by assassinating
Speaker 3: prisoners or high profile prisoners who have been released. But
Speaker 3: remember there are two hundred I mean, there are some
Speaker 3: eleven hundred prisoners getting released, and of those, two hundred
Speaker 3: hours so serving multiple life sentences. I don't know among
Speaker 3: those how many are potential leaders, but certainly there's some
Speaker 3: high profile names with a long resume of what they
Speaker 3: would call resistance action against the occupier in their words,
Speaker 3: going way back to you know, their nineties and.
Speaker 4: So yeah, and.
Speaker 3: Whack them all with works, as we found out, it
Speaker 3: works if it's combined with other efforts, right, But whack
Speaker 3: them all alone has not. You know, it has mowned
Speaker 3: the grass for the Israelis. It's brought his bolla to
Speaker 3: its knees, but it has. But they're not out, you know,
Speaker 3: neither his Bolla nor her mass is out. And it
Speaker 3: would be a mistake to think they are. It's not.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think of you know, when you think
Speaker 3: of the way we went after God, I mean, there's
Speaker 3: so many things that we didn't do well in the
Speaker 3: United States, but we did do it do a good
Speaker 3: job of going after al Qaeda, al Qaeda in Iraq, right,
Speaker 3: But it was a combined effort, and it was counterinsurgency
Speaker 3: combined with assassination and you know, the whole intelligence cycle,
Speaker 3: and it was many more actions and a number of
Speaker 3: those actions some people might cause soft but it did
Speaker 3: work for us, of course, until we withdrew and the
Speaker 3: Islamic State came in. But the point is no, we
Speaker 3: let's you know, let's not undermine our own efforts. It
Speaker 3: worked well, but that's not what the Israelis do. They
Speaker 3: assassinate and someone else moves into the position. If you
Speaker 3: look at all the lead members of Hamas, Sinoard've, you
Speaker 3: name it, they all they a position opened up for
Speaker 3: them because he has really has killed the guy who
Speaker 3: was there before. And you very rarely get someone in
Speaker 3: coming into dead man's shoes who is more benign than
Speaker 3: its predecessor just by nature of the beast, because he
Speaker 3: knows the risks, so he's bound to be more of
Speaker 3: a zealot than the guy before.
Speaker 2: Good point.
Speaker 1: And I mean like Sinwar got released in twenty eleven, right,
Speaker 1: and you know he was operating for the most part.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure there were some of the like
Speaker 1: people were tracking it and looking to smoke them, but from.
Speaker 3: Muso, Yeah, And in twenty fourteen, he was the guy
Speaker 3: on the political bureau who coordinated the our cousin brigades,
Speaker 3: you know, the military wing and directed action and the
Speaker 3: Israelis didn't manage to get him. And then he emerged
Speaker 3: from the tunnels in twenty fourteen afterwards to declare victory Daif,
Speaker 3: who was kind of his right hand man who took
Speaker 3: over they are custom brigades you know, years later, and
Speaker 3: was really the guy who did a lot of the
Speaker 3: military planning for seven October. The Israelis tried to kill
Speaker 3: him seven times. They got his family, right, you know,
Speaker 3: they killed his wife, his infant son, and his daughter.
Speaker 3: And that wasn't you know, that wasn't likely to make
Speaker 3: him step down and go, okay, guys, you got it.
Speaker 3: He went ahead and planned seven October, right, so you
Speaker 3: think you know, again, it's an understanding of mentality. I
Speaker 3: think sometimes the Israelis forget they're dealing with human beings.
Speaker 3: You see your wife and your kids killed, all right,
Speaker 3: what's your mindset going to be? Are you going to
Speaker 3: care about killing civilian so your adversary who did that? No,
Speaker 3: of course not, and I and I guarantee most people
Speaker 3: who regard themselves as being compassionate human beings wouldn't think
Speaker 3: that way. You take a guy who's a jihadist anyway
Speaker 3: by background and do that, then you know you're gonna
Speaker 3: have trouble on your hands and sure enough they did,
Speaker 3: and they got that you've you know, eventually, but someone
Speaker 3: else took over the Alkasom Brigades, someone else who probably
Speaker 3: lost a lot of people during these attacks, and it's
Speaker 3: probably planning something and going to be planning something as
Speaker 3: soon as you know her mouse gets its feedback under it.
Speaker 3: I mean, it seems to me so obvious, you know,
Speaker 3: they all this cheering every time they get someone. It's like, dude,
Speaker 3: it's what what else are you doing? What are you
Speaker 3: doing to consolidate your your advance is nothing? You know,
Speaker 3: You've you've left a city level to rubble population that
Speaker 3: is bound to hate you. You're doing nothing to help
Speaker 3: them rebuild it. As bad as we were at times,
Speaker 3: and we made some mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan, but
Speaker 3: for the most part, we understood that a strategy cannot
Speaker 3: simply rest on killing, killing and killing, and certainly not
Speaker 3: when you're dealing with a group that not a not
Speaker 3: a conventional adversary with fixed lines, You're dealing with an
Speaker 3: insurgent group.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so one quick thing before this net and Yahoo. Politically,
Speaker 1: i mean, it's good that he's you know, there was
Speaker 1: a big, big push for the hostages and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: But he is losing starting to lose a bit of
Speaker 1: his like right flank in terms of ben Yavir and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. Is he able to keep a coalition
Speaker 1: together enough where he's not gonna get like hit with
Speaker 1: you know, getting booted, you know, a snap whatever election
Speaker 1: or whatever that you know, their system works, how their
Speaker 1: system works.
Speaker 3: I think that Again I'm not I'm no expert, but
Speaker 3: I think that the you know, as I mentioned that,
Speaker 3: there are there are Israeli politicians who are more centrist,
Speaker 3: who are willing to align themselves with Netnia who for
Speaker 3: the sake of the ceasefire deal. So I don't think
Speaker 3: that his government is an immediate danger of falling, but
Speaker 3: that could change, you know, the ceasefire deal ends, depending
Speaker 3: on how it ends or any other of a number
Speaker 3: of factors. But of course, remember there are there are
Speaker 3: criminal charges against him that that can only be brought
Speaker 3: when he is no longer Prime minister, and so he
Speaker 3: it's more than his political future at stake. It could
Speaker 3: possibly be, you know, his way to avoid being locked
Speaker 3: up is to continue in power. And I think most people,
Speaker 3: even his supporters, will see he will do ething to
Speaker 3: stay in town, and he's a survivor. He's the longest
Speaker 3: serving Israeli prime minister period, you know, longer than Ben Gurion.
Speaker 3: And he's been a lead player in Israeli politics since
Speaker 3: in the early nineties.
Speaker 2: And it's the Phase two negotiations. I think they start
Speaker 2: next week. Next week there could be could be the
Speaker 2: biggest challenge to that degrees with it. He's going to
Speaker 2: have to really explain what we already talked about, how
Speaker 2: do we ensure that Homosis to take back over and
Speaker 2: become the threat that they once were before October seventh.
Speaker 1: I mean, you could see how hard these negotiations were,
Speaker 1: right the two sides I fucking hate each other. Where
Speaker 1: It's like this Phase two things should have been planned
Speaker 1: for months ago. It should have been part of the
Speaker 1: initial ceasefire in terms of like how is it going
Speaker 1: to work, who's going to be there, you know, the
Speaker 1: the actual nuts and bolts of it.
Speaker 3: We said, I'm sorry who said? You know? He he
Speaker 3: took a stand on on the requirement for the Israelis
Speaker 3: to withdraw from Gaza, right and even though even when
Speaker 3: the military said, hey, we can go down to the
Speaker 3: Philadelphia corridor and still be ready to respond from there,
Speaker 3: and Halevi, who was the chief of staff said publicly
Speaker 3: as did oh gosh, yeah gallant. Right, they both said that,
Speaker 3: and they were both fired. And so you know that
Speaker 3: that was the way that he that he kept he
Speaker 3: kept slow rolling the ceasefire, even when his own general said, hey,
Speaker 3: those terms are acceptable. He found a way too. They weren't.
Speaker 3: It might have been just a strategy.
Speaker 2: And when it comes to negotiation that if they were
Speaker 2: to talk too much about phase two, they would have
Speaker 2: been around around the accelent phase two. I never even
Speaker 2: got into phase one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So cautious optimism. And I hope they
Speaker 1: keep bringing that humanitarian aaden because I'm not interested in
Speaker 1: like little kids fucking starving in the street. It's a bummer. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And Mick is you know, involved in that humanitarian effort
Speaker 1: with fog Bo.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: You could check it out the linkers and the description.
Speaker 1: There's some other stuff too about the TikTok band and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. We could do that on another time.
Speaker 1: This is awesome, all right, So mixed companies, uh, fog
Speaker 1: Bow long Bow, everything is in the description. Check that out.
Speaker 1: Andy Milburn, He's got a great book. When the tempest
Speaker 1: gathers linkers in the description find him. If you wanted
Speaker 1: to talk to Andy Milburn, maybe he'll answer you. The
Speaker 1: links are in the description Stop asking Me Jason lyon
Speaker 1: same thing. Links are in the description as well, and
Speaker 1: the best place to support the show is Patreon dot com,
Speaker 1: slash the Teamhouse. I missed you, guys. It's been a
Speaker 1: little bit of it's been a week, an entire week.
Speaker 1: I haven't seen you guys. Yeah, great show, guys. If
Speaker 1: there's anything else you guys want to add, please feel free.
Speaker 2: No good good good saying you guys.
Speaker 1: Thanks everybody.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, thanks for take it.