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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favre, I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

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<v Speaker 2>Happy fourth. We decided to record a little early ahead

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<v Speaker 2>of the long weekend. Long week for me. I'm heading

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<v Speaker 2>to Maine for vacation, just see if I can get

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<v Speaker 2>some of those Harris Collins voters back on side. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>you pod boys saying nice things about platin Er. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>just going to try to go to Maine and get

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<v Speaker 2>it done myself.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, if there's any group we have a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of sway with, it is uh older women, Susan Colin

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<v Speaker 4>votters in Maine.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I'm telling you I'm going to where I'm going.

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<v Speaker 2>That is the place. That's right.

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<v Speaker 4>I understand Emily has been on the ground for weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>I know Platinus numbers. I know I'm bringing in reinforcements.

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<v Speaker 2>What are you guys up to for the fourth? Are

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<v Speaker 2>you sticking around?

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<v Speaker 4>We're sticking around. We're having a bunch of people over

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<v Speaker 4>very chill. Fourth. You're not gonna be very patriotic, but chill.

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<v Speaker 2>Fourth, You're not going to check out the California exhibit

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<v Speaker 2>at the Great State Fair in DC and listen to

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's speech.

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<v Speaker 4>We are going to listen to Trump's speech. We're going

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<v Speaker 4>to gather everyone around the TV. We're going to watch

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<v Speaker 4>it together as a family, as one as anyone who

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<v Speaker 4>loves America would do.

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<v Speaker 2>Perfect, perfect a kid. The kids will always remember how

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<v Speaker 2>they spent their to the Americas two fifty with their

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<v Speaker 2>half century old dad. I mean I heard that. I heard.

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<v Speaker 2>I heard. That's what your kids are calling you.

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<v Speaker 4>That's what That's what Kylie keeps saying to me. She's like, Dad,

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<v Speaker 4>you're now a half a century old.

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<v Speaker 2>That is brutal. That hit me hard, mainly because I'm

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<v Speaker 2>only a couple of years away.

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<v Speaker 4>But well, I will, I trust me, I will make

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<v Speaker 4>sure that your children quite you last century in five years.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you could probably get Charlie going on that. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>all right, we got some news to cover before we

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<v Speaker 2>take off for the break. Trump making two billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>since taking office, the right wing freak out over birthright citizenship,

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<v Speaker 2>more progressive primary wins in Colorado, And you and I

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<v Speaker 2>are going to nerd the hell out over some brand

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<v Speaker 2>new New York Times polls on all the biggest Senate races. Fun.

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<v Speaker 2>But first, let's talk about how our president is celebrating

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<v Speaker 2>America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday by jumping on his

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<v Speaker 2>brand new Katari Palace in the Sky formerly known as

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<v Speaker 2>Air Force One, which touched down in the Dakotas for

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<v Speaker 2>the opening of Teddy Roosevelt's Presidential Library and a firework

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<v Speaker 2>show at Mount Rushmore even though people there were worried

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<v Speaker 2>it might start a wildfire, the vpiest thing ever. Then

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<v Speaker 2>jets back to DC for what he's calling quote the

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<v Speaker 2>most spectacular Trump Rally of the mall, which will reportedly

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<v Speaker 2>include over eight hundred thousand fireworks in an attempt to

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<v Speaker 2>set the Guinness World Record. Trump seems to be going

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<v Speaker 2>for another record as well, he said, quote it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be approximately one hundred and seven degrees out, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to make a really long speech just to

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<v Speaker 2>show that I can do anything.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that is the American spirit.

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<v Speaker 2>That is the American spirit. This is apparently why the

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<v Speaker 2>fireworks aren't starting until after eleven pm Eastern. Very cool,

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<v Speaker 2>very considerate. Trump's really been on one this week. Here

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<v Speaker 2>he is talking about and two Teddy Roosevelt at the

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<v Speaker 2>opening of the museum this week.

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<v Speaker 5>Theodore Roosevelt, he had great passion. The colonel they called him,

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<v Speaker 5>was an American man. He was really a great he man.

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<v Speaker 5>They say it was forty pounds of muss. I don't

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<v Speaker 5>know how that how that happened. They didn't have modern

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<v Speaker 5>day drugs. Of course, the modern day drugs don't do

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<v Speaker 5>that either, do they. In fact, they actually take away

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<v Speaker 5>the muscle.

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<v Speaker 4>That's not the sun was brave.

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<v Speaker 5>It's genetics, you know.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like the race horse theory.

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<v Speaker 5>They're the only father and son pair to receive our

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<v Speaker 5>nation's highest military award for courage above and beyond. Now,

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<v Speaker 5>as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I

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<v Speaker 5>think I'm going to give one to myself, one to them,

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<v Speaker 5>and we'll have a threesome.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 5>I even had a conversation with Theodore Roosevelt, and I said,

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<v Speaker 5>what did you think about the Panama Canal? Do you

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<v Speaker 5>consider that your greatest achievement? How do you feel about

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<v Speaker 5>the fact that the Democrats gave the Panama Canal away

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<v Speaker 5>to Panama for one dollars?

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<v Speaker 4>The nation comes first, you get through.

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<v Speaker 5>I know you know that.

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<v Speaker 2>Well.

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<v Speaker 4>I appreciate those words.

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<v Speaker 5>Those words are fantastic, and I just want to say

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<v Speaker 5>it to an with you today we are making a

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<v Speaker 5>little bit of a tour.

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<v Speaker 2>There he is there, he is jacked AI, Teddy Roosevelt

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<v Speaker 2>all muscle. He and his son big winners, and maybe

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<v Speaker 2>Trump and his son can also be winners and have

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<v Speaker 2>a threesome. What do you think?

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<v Speaker 4>It just doesn't seem to me like Trump fully understands

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<v Speaker 4>what's happening in the conversation of the AA Teddy Roosevelt.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 4>Does he think he's talking to Teddy Roosevelt? Does he

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<v Speaker 4>understand how an AI chatbot hologram works?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>Should we be doing more of this? Should we do?

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<v Speaker 4>Should Democrats have a AI Ronald Reagan at our convention

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<v Speaker 4>to talk about how Trump is is not a Republican,

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<v Speaker 4>and there are all kinds of things you did here.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Trump was deep in the weeds on the executive

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<v Speaker 2>order to lift the export controls on Fable and Mythos,

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<v Speaker 2>the claude ll Ms. He was. He's deep in the

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<v Speaker 2>weeds there because he has a lot of thoughts on

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<v Speaker 2>those models. So I'm sure he.

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<v Speaker 4>Speaking of a I did you did you see this

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<v Speaker 4>morning that Open AI offered the US government a five

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<v Speaker 4>percent stake in the company?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, you know, that's also a an idea on the left,

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<v Speaker 2>by the way, that some have uh proposed. I believe

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<v Speaker 2>roe Conna has proposed that it is now the challenges

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<v Speaker 2>and Bernie has proposed that too. The idea is the

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<v Speaker 2>government gets a stake of it, and then the government

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<v Speaker 2>distributes like on the upside of these AI companies, that

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<v Speaker 2>the government distributes that to people as like a like

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<v Speaker 2>like an oil royalty for for our age. Of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the challenge is what happens when Donald Trump is in

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<v Speaker 2>charge or another Donald Trump is in charge? Right, Like

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<v Speaker 2>you'd want to you'd want to have that kind of

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<v Speaker 2>power in the hands of a president who's into redistribution.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you'd have to write, you'd have to write a

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<v Speaker 4>law that like the like the oil royalties in Alaska.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's that's that's all this neither here nor there.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's talking to AI Teddy Roosevelt talking about threesomes with

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<v Speaker 2>his kids. Uh do you think do you think he

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<v Speaker 2>caught that? Do you think afterwards someone was like, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>people are laughing because you did talk. Because the word

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<v Speaker 2>threesome usually doesn't just mean you and your son's having medals.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean I suspect that Trump, as someone who's

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<v Speaker 4>lived the life he's lived, is very familiar with threesomes.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think he's that generous?

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<v Speaker 4>Maybe? Maybe? I mean, I don't know. I I think

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<v Speaker 4>that I think that Trump is a sign of a

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<v Speaker 4>sign of selfishness, is my guess. Also, we're poor, Baron,

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<v Speaker 4>I did make the familial threesome.

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<v Speaker 2>That kid caught a lucky break, I guess. Larger question

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<v Speaker 2>for you, how do you think all these Trump organized

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<v Speaker 2>America to fifty events are landing with people who aren't

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<v Speaker 2>MAGA fans or whiny America hating libs like us. You

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<v Speaker 2>think most people are seeing all this?

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<v Speaker 4>I kind of presume they're not seeing it. It's just

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<v Speaker 4>it's not really breaking through in any way, shape or form.

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<v Speaker 4>None of it's exciting, none of it's interesting. People are

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<v Speaker 4>pretty busy. They have a million options for how this men.

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<v Speaker 4>They're limited attention to the extent they hear anything Trump is.

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<v Speaker 4>Trump has made it all political, and so there's a

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<v Speaker 4>whole group of people like people like us will either

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<v Speaker 4>make fun of it or or ignore it, and then

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<v Speaker 4>the people who don't really care about politics or don't

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<v Speaker 4>actively avoid politics will immediately turn away from it. Like

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<v Speaker 4>you could see a world potentially where a different president

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<v Speaker 4>does something different that is more in the theoretical spirit

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<v Speaker 4>of America, that is more bipartisan. You know, you could

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<v Speaker 4>see a world where a democratic president or even a

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<v Speaker 4>different Republican president who comes from a different Republican party,

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<v Speaker 4>in an alternative universe, has on stage the Obamas, the Bidens,

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<v Speaker 4>the Clintons, the Bushes, and we're you know, basically you

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<v Speaker 4>have a library opening. But but it you know, I

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<v Speaker 4>just I went back and looked a lot of like

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<v Speaker 4>what happened in nineteen seventy six, and so much of

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<v Speaker 4>it a it happened in an election year, which is notable,

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<v Speaker 4>but also just so much of the attention to it

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<v Speaker 4>also had a lot to do with the fact that

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<v Speaker 4>we lived in a world where there were three TV

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<v Speaker 4>station channels and you had to watch it, and so

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<v Speaker 4>you couldn't it just it was like beamed into the

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<v Speaker 4>brainz and Mirrikan people people do they kind of involved.

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<v Speaker 4>Like I saw the whole thing about how people decorated

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<v Speaker 4>all their painted all the fire hydrants red, white and blue.

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<v Speaker 4>Some of them turned them to like very funny like

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<v Speaker 4>a link in fire hydrants and things like that. But

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<v Speaker 4>just in this day and age, it's like it's hard

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<v Speaker 4>to get people attention like that. And Trump is not

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<v Speaker 4>trying to actually do that. He's trying to make it

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<v Speaker 4>about himself and that was doomed to fail.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the attention of the country is pretty much World

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<v Speaker 2>Cup is America.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, Yeah, that's like the fiftieth celebration was last night

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<v Speaker 4>in the World Cup game where everyone came together and

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<v Speaker 4>one and now wants to throw tea in the pool

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<v Speaker 4>of the referee who gave us the red card. Yes,

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<v Speaker 4>it's me the appropriate colonial response.

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<v Speaker 2>Find this pool just dump it with dump it dumps

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<v Speaker 2>some teina. Yeah. No, I've been really into some of

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<v Speaker 2>like the you know, opinion pieces on this. I was

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<v Speaker 2>like watching that Netflix has a good doc American Experiment

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<v Speaker 2>that I.

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<v Speaker 4>Was even watching that.

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<v Speaker 2>I was watching that I'm a sucker for like revolutionary

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<v Speaker 2>war history. And but then I was and I was

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<v Speaker 2>like thinking about it a lot, and I thought I

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<v Speaker 2>was maybe going to write something about it. I'm like, really,

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<v Speaker 2>this is just a small circle of people talking to

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<v Speaker 2>each other who already talk to each other on sub

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<v Speaker 2>stack in other places the way.

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<v Speaker 4>Don't do not knock that, do not knock a small

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<v Speaker 4>circle people talk each.

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<v Speaker 2>Other readers and New York Times readers and podcasts. I'm like,

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<v Speaker 2>it is, you know, the people trying to get most

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<v Speaker 2>of the country to pay attention to the two hundred

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<v Speaker 2>fifty anniversary seems like a tall order when Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is president and everything else is going on.

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<v Speaker 4>I just want to caution you that if your new

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<v Speaker 4>logic is it's only going to reach a small group

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<v Speaker 4>of people talk to each other, you're going to start

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<v Speaker 4>doing all things.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I would talk to people about other other issues, okay, parents,

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<v Speaker 2>Like what am I trying to convince people of that?

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<v Speaker 2>It's that this is what America is really about? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>Like that's We're all on board, all right. Few other

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<v Speaker 2>Trump items to discuss, lest you think he's trying to

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<v Speaker 2>make this anniversary all about himself. Trump is reportedly considering

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<v Speaker 2>an idea described as two hundred and fifty pardons for

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<v Speaker 2>two hundred and fifty years. That's how a person close

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<v Speaker 2>to the White House described it to The Atlantic, in

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<v Speaker 2>an effort to quote reinforce an image he has long

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<v Speaker 2>sought to cultivate, Trump the merciful. Yeah, that's he's really

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<v Speaker 2>been working hard on that. I don't know how much

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<v Speaker 2>progress he's made. The piece goes on to say, quote,

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<v Speaker 2>the prospect of a mass pardon has set off an

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<v Speaker 2>international frenzy of lobbying and deal making in which even

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<v Speaker 2>slight proximity to the president can be monetized. No shit.

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<v Speaker 2>And speaking of monetizing the presidency, Trump's twenty twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>financial disclosure just came out and shows that the President

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<v Speaker 2>of the United States raked in at least two point

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<v Speaker 2>two billion dollars last year while in office, with at

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<v Speaker 2>least one point four billion of that coming from his

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<v Speaker 2>family's cryptocurrency business slash Ponzi scheme. What better way for

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<v Speaker 2>a president to celebrate America's two hundred and fiftieth than

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<v Speaker 2>by using his office to make two billion dollars off

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<v Speaker 2>a Ponzi scheme and then also pardon all of his

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<v Speaker 2>rich criminal friends. I must have missed the announcement from

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<v Speaker 2>the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings

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<v Speaker 2>over this. Did you catch it?

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<v Speaker 4>No, I must have missed it too. I was so

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<v Speaker 4>busy taking in the sights of the Great American State

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<v Speaker 4>Fair that I might have missed this. The two fifty

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<v Speaker 4>parties thing is so funny because there's a line in

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<v Speaker 4>the story which says, I'm going to read it here.

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<v Speaker 4>One advisor said there had been polling that suggested a

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<v Speaker 4>mass pardon could benefit the president.

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<v Speaker 2>I caught that. I caught that. Where do you think do.

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<v Speaker 4>You think that's yes? You know who commissioned that poll?

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<v Speaker 4>A bunch of criminals or a bunch of people making

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<v Speaker 4>money off the criminals? Like that's who commissioned that bole.

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<v Speaker 4>There is no poll that suggests a mass pardon of

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<v Speaker 4>frankly anyone. Like pardons can be good commuting people's sentences

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<v Speaker 4>who were have unfair drug sentences. All there's good use

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<v Speaker 4>of the parton power. Even that is never popular. A

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<v Speaker 4>mass pardon is not popular. It's an insane thing. It's

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<v Speaker 4>something that someone told Trump in order to get him

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<v Speaker 4>to pardon people that that has hired this advisor to do.

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<v Speaker 2>I was honestly trying to think of how the question

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<v Speaker 2>would be worded to get a good result, and it

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<v Speaker 2>would be like, do you think the president should reduce

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<v Speaker 2>the sentences of people who've been unfairly imprisoned Yes, by

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<v Speaker 2>a weaponized justice, wrongly convicted?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes? If the are you are? Would you reproven disapproved

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<v Speaker 4>of the president releasing people innocent people from prison like that?

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<v Speaker 2>That is probably Yeah. That probably showed that he was

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<v Speaker 2>going to give him a little boost.

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<v Speaker 4>Now on the corruption thing, it is, I mean, the

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<v Speaker 4>amount of money Trump's made is truly unbelievable. And the

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<v Speaker 4>thing that makes it so much worse than it could

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<v Speaker 4>possibly be, and it's hard to imagine it could be

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<v Speaker 4>worse than that is it's not like Trump just picked

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<v Speaker 4>a bunch of smart stocks or even got inside information

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<v Speaker 4>on inside access to some IPO that took off, or

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<v Speaker 4>even did some sweetheart real estate deals.

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<v Speaker 2>Which he was trying to say yesterday when asked about it,

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<v Speaker 2>he was like, well, everyone profiting because the S and

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<v Speaker 2>P is up. It's like, no, that's not what's happening.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, No, that's not exactly what happened there. And most

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<v Speaker 4>of his money is not And although he does do

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of day trading, what is most of the

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<v Speaker 4>money here is from the crypto money. And that is

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<v Speaker 4>a very specific Ponzi scheme run against his most loyal supporters.

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<v Speaker 4>He took money, He weaponized their adoration for him and

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<v Speaker 4>their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins,

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<v Speaker 4>essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them, and sold

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<v Speaker 4>a chunk of the company to to an amoradi fund,

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<v Speaker 4>perhaps in exchange for selling America's most valuable technology to

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<v Speaker 4>the amortis.

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<v Speaker 2>The story about this in the Times. As you said, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>the cryptocurrency coin created by World Liberty Financial has sunk

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<v Speaker 2>to less than six cents, a more than eighty percent

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<v Speaker 2>drop from its peak, generating enormous losses for investors who

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<v Speaker 2>bought it at a higher price.

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<v Speaker 4>And Trump made money on all It's not just the

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<v Speaker 4>value of the he also was making money off the

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<v Speaker 4>sale of all the coins as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, just a total grift. I mean, what do you

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<v Speaker 2>think about this, like it's I mentioned the Republican Congress

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<v Speaker 2>because you know, we're gonna talk about this in a

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<v Speaker 2>bit with the polls. But it's like, yeah, people think

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump is corrupt. Message delivered, but we're not trying

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<v Speaker 2>to beat Trump in the midterms. We are trying to

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<v Speaker 2>beat the Republican Congress. And these people could do something

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00:16:26.159 --> 00:16:29.000
<v Speaker 2>about it. They could be like, hey, the president is

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<v Speaker 2>profiting off a Ponzi scheme while in office. There's all

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<v Speaker 2>this kinds of corrupt dealings going on, There's all kinds

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<v Speaker 2>of foreign entanglements as you mentioned, and potentially foreign corruption,

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00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:41.039
<v Speaker 2>foreign influence that he's working on nothing.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, Tommy and I talked about this a little

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<v Speaker 4>bit only friends yesterday, but I think the corruptions of

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<v Speaker 4>his area, it's already priced into the baseline here in

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<v Speaker 4>two ways. One, people think Trump always believe Trump was

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<v Speaker 4>corrupt in some way, ty orform, and they also think

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<v Speaker 4>most politicians are corup. Trump just dips his peek a

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<v Speaker 4>little deeper than everyone else, but he he is suffering

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<v Speaker 4>from the full weight of all of these things. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>he's a prover rings at thirty seven percent, Like how

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<v Speaker 4>much lower do we expect it to go And is

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<v Speaker 4>it just because of the coruption. No. Is there one

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<v Speaker 4>more piece of coruption that's going to come out that's

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<v Speaker 4>going to drive him the thirty two No. But the

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<v Speaker 4>way I think about all these things is they're all

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<v Speaker 4>affordability related. This is just all the shit he's doing

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<v Speaker 4>that's not helping you, and that stuff hit different when

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<v Speaker 4>prices are low, and it's much worse for Trump when

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<v Speaker 4>prices are high. And so people do care, maybe not

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<v Speaker 4>as much as we want them to care, but it

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<v Speaker 4>does hurt him politically, It absolutely does, and that's we're

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<v Speaker 4>already seeing that in the polls.

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<v Speaker 2>No. My point is that we got to get some

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<v Speaker 2>of that stink on the Republican Congress.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I mean there, yes, yes, and you see that.

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<v Speaker 2>In because you're right, But no, I completely agree with

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<v Speaker 2>everything you so like, we can't like we did it.

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<v Speaker 2>People know that he's a bad president. You look pull

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<v Speaker 2>after poll after poll after poll, like he is losing

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<v Speaker 2>that argument, but he is also a lame duck president

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<v Speaker 2>who is not on the ballot. No.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and there's a question about whether that is putting

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<v Speaker 4>the stink. We'll talk about this in the next section.

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<v Speaker 4>Whether that's putting the stink on the Republicans or taking

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<v Speaker 4>the stink off the Democrats is the best route to

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<v Speaker 4>doing that right, Plenty of or more likely combination of.

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<v Speaker 2>The two, plenty of stink to go around. Should say

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<v Speaker 2>that hiring also slowed to fifty seven thousand jobs added

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<v Speaker 2>last month. The jobs numbers came out way below expectations,

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<v Speaker 2>and the last two months that they were celebrating, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>have been revised down. So not a great economy unless

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<v Speaker 2>you're Donald Trump and you have a crypto scheme that

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<v Speaker 2>you're profiting off of. Even the Wall Street Journal, by

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<v Speaker 2>the way, you see there's a Wall Street Journal editorial, No,

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<v Speaker 2>how did I miss this about Donald read about Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's corruption, which is notable because I know you and

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<v Speaker 2>Tim we talked about. The New York Post did an

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<v Speaker 2>editorial just criticizing Trump's corruption, and now Wall Street Journal,

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<v Speaker 2>so all the Murdoch properties except for Fox. They even said,

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<v Speaker 2>Yowser's Yawser's the wash. The Wall Street Journal said the

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<v Speaker 2>main difference between Hunter Biden's foreign dealings and the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>projects so that the Trumps are brazenly open about theirs,

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<v Speaker 2>but there will be political costs for Republicans. If Democrats

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<v Speaker 2>take back the House or Senate, they will have a

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<v Speaker 2>field day probing the Trump family deals. Charges of GOP

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<v Speaker 2>corruption will resound through twenty twenty eight. This will feed

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<v Speaker 2>the left's class warfare and narrative that billionaire oligarchs are

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<v Speaker 2>getting rich off government. Will it feed that narrative? I

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<v Speaker 2>wonder why? Probably because it's a true narrative, Yes.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, yes, Would it tell people what's happening? Yes, that's

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<v Speaker 4>all what.

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<v Speaker 2>Happened anyway, that's from your liberal friends at the Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street Journal.

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426
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427
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428
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<v Speaker 1>Patza of America is brought to you by ag One.

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443
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444
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446
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449
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<v Speaker 2>We should also discuss the absolute freakout in magaworld over

456
00:22:10.559 --> 00:22:13.400
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court's decision to affirm the right to citizenship

457
00:22:13.440 --> 00:22:16.240
<v Speaker 2>that comes with being born in the United States as

458
00:22:16.279 --> 00:22:20.680
<v Speaker 2>granted by the fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution after slavery

459
00:22:20.720 --> 00:22:23.240
<v Speaker 2>was abolished more than one hundred and fifty years ago.

460
00:22:23.799 --> 00:22:26.519
<v Speaker 2>The court struck down Trump's effort to end birthright citizenship

461
00:22:26.599 --> 00:22:30.079
<v Speaker 2>via executive order, but the President's reaction to this was

462
00:22:30.839 --> 00:22:34.279
<v Speaker 2>pretty mild compared to Trump allies like The Daily Wires

463
00:22:34.319 --> 00:22:38.039
<v Speaker 2>Matt Walsh, who said that America is committing suicide and

464
00:22:38.079 --> 00:22:40.880
<v Speaker 2>the fact that his children are having their birthright destroyed.

465
00:22:40.960 --> 00:22:44.160
<v Speaker 2>Quote fills me with rage so deep I can't describe it.

466
00:22:45.079 --> 00:22:47.839
<v Speaker 2>Sean Davis, co founder of The Federalist, tweeted out some

467
00:22:47.880 --> 00:22:51.920
<v Speaker 2>potential remedies that include denying entry to the US to

468
00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:58.759
<v Speaker 2>all female foreigners, all pregnant women, and requiring sterilization of

469
00:22:58.799 --> 00:23:02.440
<v Speaker 2>all foreign visitors prior to entry. And you know who

470
00:23:02.480 --> 00:23:06.279
<v Speaker 2>says he's looking into these ideas, Steven Miller, who has

471
00:23:06.319 --> 00:23:11.839
<v Speaker 2>been absolutely hysterical about this. He's saying talking about national suicide,

472
00:23:12.319 --> 00:23:16.440
<v Speaker 2>national self obliteration, and quote, a deep knife wound in

473
00:23:16.480 --> 00:23:20.200
<v Speaker 2>the heart of the American Republic. All right, what do

474
00:23:20.200 --> 00:23:22.720
<v Speaker 2>you make of the reaction and specifically, what do you

475
00:23:22.759 --> 00:23:25.640
<v Speaker 2>make of Steven Miller and other White House officials considering

476
00:23:26.240 --> 00:23:29.319
<v Speaker 2>this crackdown on pregnant women entering the country. Can't believe

477
00:23:29.319 --> 00:23:31.079
<v Speaker 2>I had to say those words, and.

478
00:23:31.079 --> 00:23:38.599
<v Speaker 4>These people are just disgusting, opportunistic, delusional goals. Like it's

479
00:23:38.640 --> 00:23:43.279
<v Speaker 4>so it is, it's just so stupid, and it is

480
00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:46.079
<v Speaker 4>so like just think of think about this right in

481
00:23:46.160 --> 00:23:48.759
<v Speaker 4>twenty eighteen Republican like there is some political in there.

482
00:23:48.960 --> 00:23:50.680
<v Speaker 4>I try to, like sometimes try to put myself in

483
00:23:50.720 --> 00:23:53.599
<v Speaker 4>their heads, pretend that they are quasi rational political actors,

484
00:23:53.720 --> 00:23:55.640
<v Speaker 4>Like I think Stephen Miller is doing this from a

485
00:23:55.960 --> 00:24:01.359
<v Speaker 4>just purely sincere, deeply held racial animis. I think other

486
00:24:01.359 --> 00:24:03.960
<v Speaker 4>people in the MAGA world are looking at this. While

487
00:24:04.000 --> 00:24:05.759
<v Speaker 4>they certainly share some of that racial animis, they are

488
00:24:05.759 --> 00:24:07.440
<v Speaker 4>also looking this politically and in their mind.

489
00:24:07.599 --> 00:24:11.119
<v Speaker 2>I think I think Sean Davis and Matt walsher absolutely genuine.

490
00:24:10.839 --> 00:24:14.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. But you know,

491
00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:16.880
<v Speaker 4>I think they look at this and say, we're getting

492
00:24:16.920 --> 00:24:18.920
<v Speaker 4>killed on all the on affordability, all these other issues.

493
00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:21.640
<v Speaker 4>What is the one issue where Trump is not twenty

494
00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:24.839
<v Speaker 4>thousand leagues underwater, and that is border security? And so

495
00:24:25.079 --> 00:24:27.319
<v Speaker 4>can we move the conversation back to border security? Now?

496
00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:30.400
<v Speaker 4>The flaw in this plan is that in twenty eighteen,

497
00:24:30.480 --> 00:24:32.200
<v Speaker 4>when Republicans were getting ready to lose the mid terms,

498
00:24:32.559 --> 00:24:36.200
<v Speaker 4>they concocted a fake story about a caravan of MS

499
00:24:36.359 --> 00:24:41.039
<v Speaker 4>thirteen members marching to America, and the twenty twenty sixth

500
00:24:41.119 --> 00:24:43.519
<v Speaker 4>version of that is a bunch of pregnant with tourists.

501
00:24:43.880 --> 00:24:48.119
<v Speaker 2>It's just so fucking it's it's it's the grossest thing.

502
00:24:48.720 --> 00:24:51.039
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's just so stupid. It's just so it's also

503
00:24:51.079 --> 00:24:54.880
<v Speaker 4>so stupid, like dude, you really It means it's so

504
00:24:55.680 --> 00:24:59.319
<v Speaker 4>painfully dumb and engross. It's all dumb and gross, which

505
00:24:59.319 --> 00:25:01.640
<v Speaker 4>I guess is kind of the theme of the entire

506
00:25:02.319 --> 00:25:03.279
<v Speaker 4>area in which we're living.

507
00:25:03.319 --> 00:25:08.359
<v Speaker 2>But the Center for Immigration Studies, which is the far

508
00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:15.119
<v Speaker 2>right immigration organization, they because they're their whole argument here.

509
00:25:15.279 --> 00:25:18.319
<v Speaker 2>Trump's argument Miller's argument is this like birth tourism, right,

510
00:25:18.680 --> 00:25:22.720
<v Speaker 2>that people are coming here illegally and then they're having

511
00:25:22.880 --> 00:25:25.079
<v Speaker 2>kids so they can be American citizens, and then you know,

512
00:25:25.720 --> 00:25:30.200
<v Speaker 2>I guess then the whole country falls apart. But even

513
00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:35.160
<v Speaker 2>they say that this is they put birth tourism at

514
00:25:35.200 --> 00:25:39.200
<v Speaker 2>roughly twenty thousand cases a year. There were they were

515
00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:42.759
<v Speaker 2>about three point sixty one million births in the United

516
00:25:42.799 --> 00:25:45.319
<v Speaker 2>States every year, so that is well under one percent.

517
00:25:45.519 --> 00:25:49.079
<v Speaker 2>And that number, the twenty thousand is contested by just

518
00:25:49.079 --> 00:25:51.839
<v Speaker 2>about everyone. Because this is a right wing organization. Some

519
00:25:51.880 --> 00:25:54.519
<v Speaker 2>people think it's far far less, like a couple thousand.

520
00:25:54.920 --> 00:25:57.160
<v Speaker 2>But even if you go by their arguments, it is

521
00:25:57.240 --> 00:25:59.960
<v Speaker 2>like it is just again much like their voter fraud ship,

522
00:26:00.039 --> 00:26:01.839
<v Speaker 2>it completely made up argument.

523
00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:06.000
<v Speaker 4>It is the danger like it seems absurd to us.

524
00:26:06.039 --> 00:26:11.119
<v Speaker 4>The danger of it is you take the most egregious,

525
00:26:11.200 --> 00:26:14.839
<v Speaker 4>outlandish rarest if possibly non existent, example, and you use

526
00:26:14.880 --> 00:26:17.359
<v Speaker 4>it to take down an entire system like this is

527
00:26:17.480 --> 00:26:20.440
<v Speaker 4>Ronald Reagan and the welfare queens all over again, where

528
00:26:20.480 --> 00:26:24.519
<v Speaker 4>this is a way to try to undo birthright citizenship, which,

529
00:26:24.519 --> 00:26:26.960
<v Speaker 4>as you and I talked about on YouTube after the hearing,

530
00:26:27.720 --> 00:26:31.319
<v Speaker 4>you know you have a potential Supreme Court majority or

531
00:26:31.400 --> 00:26:34.000
<v Speaker 4>near majority at this point, who would suggest that that

532
00:26:34.039 --> 00:26:37.920
<v Speaker 4>can be done statutorily, And so you kind of understand,

533
00:26:37.960 --> 00:26:40.720
<v Speaker 4>like I understand the short term political argument there. The

534
00:26:40.799 --> 00:26:42.599
<v Speaker 4>longer term thing is to try to make people think

535
00:26:42.640 --> 00:26:45.079
<v Speaker 4>this is something that's really happening when it's not actually happening.

536
00:26:45.160 --> 00:26:47.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And then the flip side of that from picking

537
00:26:47.920 --> 00:26:52.960
<v Speaker 2>the most egregious example is basically what John Roberts argued

538
00:26:54.119 --> 00:26:57.000
<v Speaker 2>about the descent in this case, which was the descent

539
00:26:57.200 --> 00:27:02.240
<v Speaker 2>was like, well, the word domicide should mean where the

540
00:27:02.359 --> 00:27:07.440
<v Speaker 2>parents have allegiance to and if the parents were born

541
00:27:07.519 --> 00:27:09.880
<v Speaker 2>in some other country and have allegiance to that country

542
00:27:10.359 --> 00:27:14.720
<v Speaker 2>and owe something to that country, then you know, then

543
00:27:14.759 --> 00:27:17.359
<v Speaker 2>we shouldn't then the child shouldn't be a US citizen.

544
00:27:17.759 --> 00:27:21.680
<v Speaker 2>And Roberts was like, okay, well what about foreign nationals

545
00:27:21.680 --> 00:27:24.799
<v Speaker 2>who are legal permanent residents in this country? And if

546
00:27:24.839 --> 00:27:27.119
<v Speaker 2>you're a foreign national, if you have dual citizenship, or

547
00:27:27.160 --> 00:27:29.160
<v Speaker 2>even if you just have a you know, you're a

548
00:27:29.200 --> 00:27:31.079
<v Speaker 2>legal permanent resident in this country and you're still a

549
00:27:31.119 --> 00:27:34.480
<v Speaker 2>citizen of another country, you do have some allegiance to

550
00:27:34.480 --> 00:27:36.480
<v Speaker 2>that other country, and you are still to pay some

551
00:27:36.599 --> 00:27:38.400
<v Speaker 2>taxes to that other country. And so now we're saying

552
00:27:38.440 --> 00:27:41.039
<v Speaker 2>that all foreign born people in this country who have

553
00:27:41.119 --> 00:27:45.680
<v Speaker 2>children here, those children aren't American citizens. And then at

554
00:27:45.680 --> 00:27:49.079
<v Speaker 2>that point, who gets to decide who's a citizen? Trump?

555
00:27:49.160 --> 00:27:51.359
<v Speaker 2>Trump gets, Trump and Steven Miller get to decide who's

556
00:27:51.359 --> 00:27:53.880
<v Speaker 2>a citizen. They get that power. The government gets to

557
00:27:53.880 --> 00:27:57.039
<v Speaker 2>decide that is. And I think that is the argument

558
00:27:57.200 --> 00:28:00.640
<v Speaker 2>that most people in this country would not get behind,

559
00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:03.839
<v Speaker 2>that your citizenship is determined not by your birth, not

560
00:28:03.920 --> 00:28:06.160
<v Speaker 2>by where your parents are from, but by Donald Trump

561
00:28:06.200 --> 00:28:06.920
<v Speaker 2>and Stephen Miller.

562
00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:08.559
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's right.

563
00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:10.880
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's talk about what's happening with the people

564
00:28:10.880 --> 00:28:13.599
<v Speaker 2>who are trying to bounce these jokers out of office.

565
00:28:13.880 --> 00:28:17.359
<v Speaker 2>On Tuesday, Colorado held its primaries, and once again, progressive

566
00:28:17.359 --> 00:28:19.880
<v Speaker 2>candidates won the day. In the first district, which is

567
00:28:19.880 --> 00:28:22.559
<v Speaker 2>basically the heart of Metro Denver, twenty nine year old

568
00:28:22.559 --> 00:28:27.160
<v Speaker 2>immigrant turned lawyer turned insurgent DSA candidate Milak Kiros beat

569
00:28:27.240 --> 00:28:30.759
<v Speaker 2>Diana to get a fifteen term incumbent by about ten points.

570
00:28:31.000 --> 00:28:33.359
<v Speaker 2>Kiros is a PhD student who lost her job at

571
00:28:33.400 --> 00:28:36.400
<v Speaker 2>a prominent law firm in twenty twenty three after refusing

572
00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:38.720
<v Speaker 2>to take down an open letter she wrote about what

573
00:28:38.839 --> 00:28:42.640
<v Speaker 2>she saw as a crackdown on criticism of Israel. How

574
00:28:42.680 --> 00:28:45.200
<v Speaker 2>did she manage to beat an entrenched incumbent like Diana

575
00:28:45.240 --> 00:28:48.240
<v Speaker 2>to get in part because of exchanges like this from

576
00:28:48.319 --> 00:28:49.960
<v Speaker 2>a debate in early June.

577
00:28:50.119 --> 00:28:53.240
<v Speaker 6>And when we have that opportunity again, we have to

578
00:28:53.480 --> 00:28:57.039
<v Speaker 6>pass medicure for all cancer, all medical and break up

579
00:28:57.079 --> 00:29:00.640
<v Speaker 6>big medicine to try that competition in the healthcare industry.

580
00:29:00.920 --> 00:29:04.680
<v Speaker 6>If we do that, then whatever SECA fan fills the

581
00:29:04.720 --> 00:29:08.000
<v Speaker 6>shoes of Donald Trump in the twenty thirty two presidential election,

582
00:29:08.319 --> 00:29:11.559
<v Speaker 6>who tries to blame on our most vulnerable communities for

583
00:29:11.720 --> 00:29:14.640
<v Speaker 6>riek system, it's will bring hollow to the voters. But

584
00:29:14.880 --> 00:29:17.480
<v Speaker 6>as a party, we can point to what we accomplished

585
00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:20.839
<v Speaker 6>in achieving healthcare for all and see, this is what

586
00:29:20.960 --> 00:29:22.759
<v Speaker 6>Democrats achieved for working people.

587
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:26.440
<v Speaker 2>This is how we delivered pretty good, very good. It's

588
00:29:26.480 --> 00:29:28.480
<v Speaker 2>not just policy where Curas has managed to draw a

589
00:29:28.559 --> 00:29:30.799
<v Speaker 2>sharp distinction. Here's a question you got in a local

590
00:29:30.839 --> 00:29:33.759
<v Speaker 2>news interview a week ago about an ad she reposted

591
00:29:33.759 --> 00:29:35.720
<v Speaker 2>from a super pack supporting her.

592
00:29:35.799 --> 00:29:38.799
<v Speaker 4>I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats

593
00:29:38.839 --> 00:29:39.319
<v Speaker 4>suck shit.

594
00:29:39.519 --> 00:29:40.640
<v Speaker 7>Is that relief as well.

595
00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:48.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, just hearing him, just hearing the interviewers say that

596
00:29:48.319 --> 00:29:51.039
<v Speaker 2>was enjoyable. Because of the makeup of the district, Curius

597
00:29:51.079 --> 00:29:54.599
<v Speaker 2>is almost certainly to win the general election, and she

598
00:29:54.640 --> 00:29:56.960
<v Speaker 2>has said she won't vote for Hiking Jeffries for speaker

599
00:29:57.279 --> 00:30:00.079
<v Speaker 2>if he takes corporate pack money. In the primary for

600
00:30:00.160 --> 00:30:04.640
<v Speaker 2>the state's eighth district, northeast of Denver, progressive state Representative

601
00:30:04.759 --> 00:30:08.680
<v Speaker 2>Manny Rutnel defeated a more moderate Democrat by twenty eight points.

602
00:30:09.240 --> 00:30:12.279
<v Speaker 2>He will take on vulnerable Republican Gabe Evans, one of

603
00:30:12.319 --> 00:30:16.079
<v Speaker 2>the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, a big frontline race.

604
00:30:16.559 --> 00:30:19.359
<v Speaker 2>And in the governor's race, the progressive but not DSA

605
00:30:19.519 --> 00:30:22.759
<v Speaker 2>state Attorney General Phil Wiser beat out Senator Michael Bennett

606
00:30:22.920 --> 00:30:27.119
<v Speaker 2>by about twelve points. Know you and Tommy talked about

607
00:30:27.119 --> 00:30:29.079
<v Speaker 2>this on Padsave America Only Friends, But what were your

608
00:30:29.119 --> 00:30:33.000
<v Speaker 2>thoughts on Colorado and where it fits in with the

609
00:30:33.039 --> 00:30:35.319
<v Speaker 2>New York results and what's to come.

610
00:30:35.519 --> 00:30:39.559
<v Speaker 4>So I think the Kiros race against to get fits

611
00:30:39.720 --> 00:30:42.759
<v Speaker 4>very squarely in the narrative coming out of New York.

612
00:30:42.880 --> 00:30:48.240
<v Speaker 4>We have a progressive insurgent candidate running against a long

613
00:30:48.640 --> 00:30:52.880
<v Speaker 4>entrenched Democratic establishment figure. And like in New York, the

614
00:30:52.920 --> 00:30:57.119
<v Speaker 4>Democrat is not a moderate per se, but I mean

615
00:30:57.440 --> 00:31:00.799
<v Speaker 4>to gets a member of the Congression Progressive Caucus now

616
00:31:00.839 --> 00:31:03.799
<v Speaker 4>more moderate than Kiros and maybe more moderate than some

617
00:31:03.839 --> 00:31:06.440
<v Speaker 4>of the voters of this district that Kamala Harris won

618
00:31:06.519 --> 00:31:08.920
<v Speaker 4>by fifty six points. And so this district, I know,

619
00:31:09.000 --> 00:31:10.640
<v Speaker 4>it's in Colorado, and so we think of it differently.

620
00:31:11.039 --> 00:31:13.359
<v Speaker 4>It is just about as democratic as the three in

621
00:31:13.400 --> 00:31:18.160
<v Speaker 4>New York has won by more than fifty points in

622
00:31:18.200 --> 00:31:22.079
<v Speaker 4>all of them, and it, you know, it speaks to

623
00:31:22.640 --> 00:31:27.279
<v Speaker 4>the very real anger that exists within the party towards

624
00:31:27.319 --> 00:31:31.400
<v Speaker 4>the democratic establishment, the status quo, and the system. And

625
00:31:31.400 --> 00:31:33.119
<v Speaker 4>we talked about what we talked units in the New

626
00:31:33.160 --> 00:31:35.319
<v Speaker 4>York We talked about the New York races just last week,

627
00:31:35.359 --> 00:31:38.160
<v Speaker 4>I think, talked about the ways in which those anger

628
00:31:38.319 --> 00:31:42.559
<v Speaker 4>manifests itself. And Kiros ran a great race, she won

629
00:31:42.640 --> 00:31:46.440
<v Speaker 4>by double digits, and so that fits in that narrative.

630
00:31:47.599 --> 00:31:51.000
<v Speaker 4>The other two races don't fit exactly in that narrative.

631
00:31:51.079 --> 00:31:53.720
<v Speaker 4>What is true of the Wiser Bennett race, Like I

632
00:31:53.759 --> 00:31:56.400
<v Speaker 4>guess it is fair to say that Wiser is a progressive,

633
00:31:56.720 --> 00:31:59.960
<v Speaker 4>but Bennett, but he's not that much more notably progressive

634
00:32:00.079 --> 00:32:05.079
<v Speaker 4>than Bennett. And he is not an insurgent. He is

635
00:32:05.119 --> 00:32:06.960
<v Speaker 4>the two term attorney general of the state who worked

636
00:32:07.000 --> 00:32:11.279
<v Speaker 4>for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama where he what he

637
00:32:11.440 --> 00:32:14.799
<v Speaker 4>did do was he did weaponize that anger against the

638
00:32:14.920 --> 00:32:17.400
<v Speaker 4>establishment in one of the elements of it, which is

639
00:32:17.680 --> 00:32:20.599
<v Speaker 4>Bennett's been in Washington for a couple decades now, or

640
00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:23.759
<v Speaker 4>almost two decades. He was appointed in two thousand and nine,

641
00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:28.880
<v Speaker 4>I believe to replace Kensal's ar and but he attacked

642
00:32:28.960 --> 00:32:30.960
<v Speaker 4>him for not fighting hard enough against Trump, being part

643
00:32:30.960 --> 00:32:34.359
<v Speaker 4>of establishment that let Trump win, and then ran on

644
00:32:34.400 --> 00:32:36.359
<v Speaker 4>all the things that Wiser had done as a very

645
00:32:36.359 --> 00:32:39.759
<v Speaker 4>good attorney general fighting back against Trump with lawsuits and

646
00:32:39.799 --> 00:32:42.960
<v Speaker 4>other sorts of things, and so, but it's not he's

647
00:32:42.960 --> 00:32:45.279
<v Speaker 4>not remember the DSA. It's different. He also was someone

648
00:32:45.319 --> 00:32:49.599
<v Speaker 4>with he as good of name id and probably more

649
00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:52.039
<v Speaker 4>like recent depth of knowledge relationship with the voters than

650
00:32:52.039 --> 00:32:54.119
<v Speaker 4>Bennett because he's the attorney He's a high profile attorney

651
00:32:54.160 --> 00:32:58.359
<v Speaker 4>general in the state, and Bennett's been in Washington. And

652
00:32:58.400 --> 00:33:02.119
<v Speaker 4>then the Routinel Shannon Burn race is interesting and kind

653
00:33:02.119 --> 00:33:04.799
<v Speaker 4>of speaks to how progressive candidates I think will win

654
00:33:04.880 --> 00:33:07.640
<v Speaker 4>in these frontline districts. If the running is Rutnell did

655
00:33:07.680 --> 00:33:08.160
<v Speaker 4>not run to.

656
00:33:08.119 --> 00:33:10.359
<v Speaker 2>The left, No, ran to this ran to the center.

657
00:33:10.359 --> 00:33:12.480
<v Speaker 4>He ran to the center. He even he even denounced

658
00:33:12.480 --> 00:33:16.000
<v Speaker 4>his own form of veganism and he but.

659
00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:18.839
<v Speaker 2>He did attack unlike Taller Rico. He really he really

660
00:33:18.880 --> 00:33:19.440
<v Speaker 2>was a vegan.

661
00:33:19.920 --> 00:33:21.839
<v Speaker 4>Yes, he actually was a vegan. He was a peda

662
00:33:21.920 --> 00:33:25.160
<v Speaker 4>activist in one of the top farm districts in the

663
00:33:25.200 --> 00:33:28.480
<v Speaker 4>country and has walked away from that.

664
00:33:28.920 --> 00:33:30.759
<v Speaker 2>And he sort of he sort of walked away from

665
00:33:30.759 --> 00:33:32.079
<v Speaker 2>Medicare for all also.

666
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:34.880
<v Speaker 4>Yes, and being a DSA member. Where but where he

667
00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:37.480
<v Speaker 4>went after, which is I think also interesting notic was

668
00:33:37.480 --> 00:33:40.240
<v Speaker 4>where when he went after Bird was on ICE because

669
00:33:40.240 --> 00:33:42.440
<v Speaker 4>Bird had a vote or two in the state legilator

670
00:33:42.640 --> 00:33:43.559
<v Speaker 4>that was suggested.

671
00:33:43.759 --> 00:33:45.359
<v Speaker 2>I think it was like Cooperate. It was like state

672
00:33:45.920 --> 00:33:46.960
<v Speaker 2>wise cooperations.

673
00:33:47.039 --> 00:33:50.160
<v Speaker 4>Yes, it wasn't like she was endorsing ICE or wearing

674
00:33:50.200 --> 00:33:52.680
<v Speaker 4>like ICE T shirts, but that was a major issue

675
00:33:53.319 --> 00:33:55.960
<v Speaker 4>in the race. And so these are all different. They

676
00:33:56.000 --> 00:33:58.400
<v Speaker 4>do speak to the fact that you really don't want

677
00:33:58.440 --> 00:34:02.680
<v Speaker 4>to be particular in the Wiser and Heros race, You

678
00:34:02.680 --> 00:34:06.640
<v Speaker 4>really don't want to be a longtime democratic establishment figure

679
00:34:07.359 --> 00:34:09.239
<v Speaker 4>like that. Yeah, you're a vulnerable in a way, but

680
00:34:09.320 --> 00:34:09.960
<v Speaker 4>you've never been.

681
00:34:09.800 --> 00:34:15.760
<v Speaker 2>Before, and that the voter anger at the establishment, and

682
00:34:16.280 --> 00:34:19.320
<v Speaker 2>specifically the fact that the establishment has not done enough

683
00:34:19.360 --> 00:34:23.639
<v Speaker 2>to improve the lives of working people in this country

684
00:34:24.119 --> 00:34:28.800
<v Speaker 2>or enough to beat back Donald Trump and Republicans is

685
00:34:28.920 --> 00:34:32.159
<v Speaker 2>probably at least what the primaries are telling us, probably

686
00:34:32.239 --> 00:34:36.679
<v Speaker 2>even more powerful than anger at Democrats for being too

687
00:34:36.719 --> 00:34:40.719
<v Speaker 2>centrist or too moderate. Yes, yes, I think the and

688
00:34:40.800 --> 00:34:44.400
<v Speaker 2>it it's race dependent, of course, but clearly in the

689
00:34:44.519 --> 00:34:48.920
<v Speaker 2>in the Bennett race, in the Routinel race, in some

690
00:34:48.960 --> 00:34:51.199
<v Speaker 2>of the other ones we're seeing like that is a factor,

691
00:34:51.480 --> 00:34:53.920
<v Speaker 2>that is a factor that is uniting all of this,

692
00:34:54.440 --> 00:34:55.960
<v Speaker 2>all of this anti establishment.

693
00:34:56.239 --> 00:35:00.960
<v Speaker 4>Further, the ideological thing is hard to parse because it's

694
00:35:01.000 --> 00:35:03.559
<v Speaker 4>talked about one way by the pundit's analyzing the race,

695
00:35:03.599 --> 00:35:06.639
<v Speaker 4>and I think it's viewed by voters in a different way. Yeah, like,

696
00:35:06.679 --> 00:35:08.360
<v Speaker 4>and I think a big issue in a lot of

697
00:35:08.360 --> 00:35:12.519
<v Speaker 4>these races is obviously Israel and Gaza. Yes, and it's

698
00:35:12.519 --> 00:35:15.079
<v Speaker 4>played itself in different ways. It was it was obviously

699
00:35:15.159 --> 00:35:18.440
<v Speaker 4>a central part of Kiros's race and her political identity

700
00:35:18.480 --> 00:35:21.199
<v Speaker 4>and her right entry into politics was because of her

701
00:35:21.320 --> 00:35:24.559
<v Speaker 4>views on Israel and gaza, and it does represent the

702
00:35:24.599 --> 00:35:27.960
<v Speaker 4>issue where there's the greatest distance between the party establishment

703
00:35:28.480 --> 00:35:31.920
<v Speaker 4>and the voter, and particularly the Democratic primary voter and

704
00:35:31.960 --> 00:35:34.760
<v Speaker 4>the most active Democratic primary voters. And I think that

705
00:35:34.880 --> 00:35:37.880
<v Speaker 4>issue it's ideological. What's also a litmus test of sorts

706
00:35:37.920 --> 00:35:40.239
<v Speaker 4>in the sense that it says if you were unwilling to,

707
00:35:40.440 --> 00:35:43.400
<v Speaker 4>in the minds of voters, call what is what you

708
00:35:43.599 --> 00:35:47.280
<v Speaker 4>what everyone is seeing with their eyes genocide or to

709
00:35:47.360 --> 00:35:50.000
<v Speaker 4>react to it in the right way, it says something

710
00:35:50.079 --> 00:35:52.840
<v Speaker 4>about who you are and who you stand for, and

711
00:35:52.960 --> 00:35:56.920
<v Speaker 4>so like is it I think it's too easy to

712
00:35:56.960 --> 00:35:59.119
<v Speaker 4>say that. It's like just people want to say it's

713
00:35:59.119 --> 00:36:01.639
<v Speaker 4>all about being more progressive than being not progressive, and

714
00:36:01.760 --> 00:36:04.239
<v Speaker 4>it's more complicated in that. It's also I think more

715
00:36:04.239 --> 00:36:06.599
<v Speaker 4>complicated than being just like who's a fighter? Like you

716
00:36:06.599 --> 00:36:08.639
<v Speaker 4>definite wouldn't want to be a fighter, Like not being

717
00:36:08.679 --> 00:36:12.199
<v Speaker 4>a fighter is bad, Like like there are on a

718
00:36:12.199 --> 00:36:13.639
<v Speaker 4>lot of there are on a lot of people waving

719
00:36:13.639 --> 00:36:15.679
<v Speaker 4>the white flag who are winning these primaries or in

720
00:36:15.719 --> 00:36:20.119
<v Speaker 4>elections in general. But it it just I always find

721
00:36:20.119 --> 00:36:23.719
<v Speaker 4>myself struggling with this because it's the conversation is more

722
00:36:23.760 --> 00:36:27.679
<v Speaker 4>complicated and dynamic than the terms in which we generally

723
00:36:27.719 --> 00:36:30.159
<v Speaker 4>try to have the talk about it and sort of

724
00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:31.199
<v Speaker 4>how votes of it.

725
00:36:31.079 --> 00:36:35.800
<v Speaker 2>Because when people say moderate, liberal, progressive, there's like an

726
00:36:35.880 --> 00:36:39.679
<v Speaker 2>umbrella over all the issues, and in reality it's issue

727
00:36:39.719 --> 00:36:41.559
<v Speaker 2>by issue for different voters and in different parts of

728
00:36:41.599 --> 00:36:44.079
<v Speaker 2>the country and in different races, right because and.

729
00:36:44.039 --> 00:36:45.880
<v Speaker 4>These aren't moderates who are losing. But the exception of

730
00:36:45.920 --> 00:36:49.840
<v Speaker 4>Goldman against Lander and Golden, particularly the issue where Golden

731
00:36:49.960 --> 00:36:54.119
<v Speaker 4>was most moderate was Israel. But Espiot not a moderate

732
00:36:54.639 --> 00:36:55.480
<v Speaker 4>to get not a.

733
00:36:55.480 --> 00:36:57.559
<v Speaker 2>Moderate, No, but been there a while.

734
00:36:57.880 --> 00:36:59.760
<v Speaker 4>Yes, there's a generational element to this.

735
00:36:59.719 --> 00:37:04.199
<v Speaker 2>Too, coming attractions. Did you see AOC endorsed abdul Elsad

736
00:37:04.280 --> 00:37:08.760
<v Speaker 2>in Michigan? So there's the Michigan primary where obviously the

737
00:37:08.800 --> 00:37:11.159
<v Speaker 2>Senate race is the Marquis race. I believe there's also

738
00:37:11.239 --> 00:37:15.559
<v Speaker 2>like a house race there as well. Shreithanadar is a

739
00:37:15.880 --> 00:37:20.599
<v Speaker 2>Democratic congressman there who's facing a primary challenge. There's a

740
00:37:20.599 --> 00:37:22.239
<v Speaker 2>few more. Do you have any do you know.

741
00:37:22.360 --> 00:37:25.360
<v Speaker 4>The Yeah, there's Wie Wasserman Schultz, Yeah, I guess, Elijah

742
00:37:25.400 --> 00:37:27.679
<v Speaker 4>Manley and apparently Luther Campbell formerly of Two Life Crow,

743
00:37:27.679 --> 00:37:29.079
<v Speaker 4>which I did not realize until heard the new York

744
00:37:29.079 --> 00:37:31.360
<v Speaker 4>Times Real story of it. Yes, then she is not.

745
00:37:32.400 --> 00:37:34.400
<v Speaker 4>She is running in a district that's not hers because

746
00:37:34.400 --> 00:37:36.199
<v Speaker 4>it was redrawn. So it's a little bit more like

747
00:37:36.320 --> 00:37:40.159
<v Speaker 4>the Al Green and Julie Johnson losses earlier this cycle.

748
00:37:41.079 --> 00:37:43.360
<v Speaker 2>Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts, Steven.

749
00:37:43.119 --> 00:37:46.639
<v Speaker 4>Lynch in Massachusetts, and there for Ed Markey in Massachusetts,

750
00:37:47.719 --> 00:37:51.679
<v Speaker 4>John Larson in Connecticut, Wesley Bell who beat Corey Bush

751
00:37:51.679 --> 00:37:54.039
<v Speaker 4>two years ago. This is not a generational one. This

752
00:37:54.079 --> 00:37:56.000
<v Speaker 4>is more of a modern progressive one. But Corey Bush

753
00:37:56.079 --> 00:37:57.800
<v Speaker 4>is now and he won in large part because of

754
00:37:57.800 --> 00:38:02.000
<v Speaker 4>apex spending in that race. He was their candidate, and

755
00:38:02.039 --> 00:38:03.880
<v Speaker 4>so Corey Bush is now running for her seat again.

756
00:38:03.920 --> 00:38:06.440
<v Speaker 4>That's one in Missouri, which comes up in August. I believe.

757
00:38:06.719 --> 00:38:08.519
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so wet we got.

758
00:38:08.559 --> 00:38:13.559
<v Speaker 4>There is plenty of time for panic and overly hot

759
00:38:13.559 --> 00:38:15.440
<v Speaker 4>takes and on nuanced takes about all of these things

760
00:38:15.440 --> 00:38:15.880
<v Speaker 4>going forward.

761
00:38:16.039 --> 00:38:16.719
<v Speaker 2>Can't wait.

762
00:38:24.280 --> 00:38:26.320
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<v Speaker 1>dream big, and wake up better. The headlines will still

844
00:41:45.800 --> 00:41:47.599
<v Speaker 1>be there in the morning. You might as well wake

845
00:41:47.679 --> 00:41:52.440
<v Speaker 1>up ready for them.

846
00:41:52.519 --> 00:41:56.000
<v Speaker 2>Did you see Steve Bannon's comments in Playbook This Morning?

847
00:41:56.239 --> 00:41:58.840
<v Speaker 4>I AI Steve Bannon would have said that, like I

848
00:41:59.239 --> 00:42:00.880
<v Speaker 4>could have told you, I feel that's going to say.

849
00:42:01.440 --> 00:42:07.360
<v Speaker 2>He's basically said that Republicans ignore or mock the election

850
00:42:07.480 --> 00:42:11.000
<v Speaker 2>of DSA candidates and progressive candidates at their peril. He

851
00:42:11.039 --> 00:42:14.440
<v Speaker 2>said quote they campaign his anti establishment very smartly. They're

852
00:42:14.480 --> 00:42:16.639
<v Speaker 2>not really even campaigning on Trump. He gets a mention,

853
00:42:16.960 --> 00:42:19.599
<v Speaker 2>but they're very much like the Tea Party, like old Breitbart,

854
00:42:19.719 --> 00:42:22.119
<v Speaker 2>they're going against the democratic establishment. The reason we have

855
00:42:22.119 --> 00:42:23.840
<v Speaker 2>a problems is not Trump, it's the people that should

856
00:42:23.840 --> 00:42:26.599
<v Speaker 2>be stopping Trump are actually co opted by him. It's

857
00:42:26.719 --> 00:42:31.199
<v Speaker 2>very sophisticated and it clearly resonates. What do you think

858
00:42:31.239 --> 00:42:31.679
<v Speaker 2>about that?

859
00:42:32.559 --> 00:42:36.440
<v Speaker 4>I think, I mean it's like an overly facile self servying.

860
00:42:37.280 --> 00:42:39.320
<v Speaker 4>I mean, basically what he's saying is like, also, are

861
00:42:39.400 --> 00:42:41.679
<v Speaker 4>these people are They're doing exactly what I did ten

862
00:42:41.719 --> 00:42:42.679
<v Speaker 4>years ago, fifteen years ago.

863
00:42:42.840 --> 00:42:45.199
<v Speaker 2>And he's like a populist, you know.

864
00:42:45.599 --> 00:42:48.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean sort of yeah.

865
00:42:47.719 --> 00:42:51.440
<v Speaker 2>Well no, I think I think with Bannon he's a populist,

866
00:42:51.480 --> 00:42:53.280
<v Speaker 2>and that in all the wrong ways and all the

867
00:42:53.440 --> 00:42:57.000
<v Speaker 2>like xenophobic, h terrible ways, but he's also a genuine

868
00:42:57.039 --> 00:42:59.800
<v Speaker 2>populist on economic stuff that he has like always pushed

869
00:43:00.159 --> 00:43:03.880
<v Speaker 2>to actually do populist economic shit, and then Trump has

870
00:43:03.920 --> 00:43:05.000
<v Speaker 2>never done it in two tens.

871
00:43:05.559 --> 00:43:08.119
<v Speaker 4>I think he genuinely believes that populism is the best politics,

872
00:43:08.440 --> 00:43:11.119
<v Speaker 4>yes for the Republican Party, that I agree with, which

873
00:43:11.159 --> 00:43:14.199
<v Speaker 4>is why he has been so skeptical of big tech.

874
00:43:14.239 --> 00:43:16.840
<v Speaker 4>I mean, he takes a lot of money from billionaires

875
00:43:16.840 --> 00:43:21.320
<v Speaker 4>for a populist, but his argument was for a populist

876
00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:24.199
<v Speaker 4>for MAGA to be a populist working class movement, and

877
00:43:24.239 --> 00:43:28.119
<v Speaker 4>he sees Democrats trying to do something similar and being

878
00:43:28.119 --> 00:43:30.599
<v Speaker 4>willing to take on their own in order to do it.

879
00:43:31.400 --> 00:43:33.239
<v Speaker 4>So I think it's notable.

880
00:43:32.960 --> 00:43:35.960
<v Speaker 2>On the subject of DSA momentum, I don't know if

881
00:43:35.960 --> 00:43:39.559
<v Speaker 2>you saw. Axios had a report on Wednesday that Kamala

882
00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:42.280
<v Speaker 2>Harris has quietly been reaching out to Zora on Mamdani,

883
00:43:42.360 --> 00:43:45.679
<v Speaker 2>AOC and the leaders of the Uncommitted Movement, indicating that

884
00:43:45.719 --> 00:43:48.840
<v Speaker 2>she's making plans potentially for a twenty twenty eight run

885
00:43:49.239 --> 00:43:55.320
<v Speaker 2>and perhaps another ideological reinvention. What did you think about that?

886
00:43:55.800 --> 00:43:58.840
<v Speaker 4>So we are getting more and more evidence that Kamala

887
00:43:58.880 --> 00:44:01.360
<v Speaker 4>Harris is seriously thinking about running. If you'd ask me

888
00:44:01.360 --> 00:44:03.760
<v Speaker 4>six months ago, I would have bet a fair amount

889
00:44:03.760 --> 00:44:05.360
<v Speaker 4>of money that she was not going to run. But

890
00:44:05.440 --> 00:44:08.639
<v Speaker 4>she keeps doing things that suggest she's at least seriously

891
00:44:08.679 --> 00:44:10.400
<v Speaker 4>thinking about it. You and I have heard lots of

892
00:44:10.480 --> 00:44:12.199
<v Speaker 4>rumors of her talking to all kinds of different people

893
00:44:12.280 --> 00:44:15.639
<v Speaker 4>in the party. I think if she is running and

894
00:44:15.719 --> 00:44:18.480
<v Speaker 4>is being smart about it. There is no path for

895
00:44:18.559 --> 00:44:22.079
<v Speaker 4>her to the nomination that does not involve a massive

896
00:44:22.159 --> 00:44:27.159
<v Speaker 4>pivot away from Biden's Israel and gos of policy, and

897
00:44:27.239 --> 00:44:30.079
<v Speaker 4>so having some conversations about how you would do that

898
00:44:30.679 --> 00:44:34.519
<v Speaker 4>and how that would be received by people in the community,

899
00:44:34.519 --> 00:44:37.679
<v Speaker 4>particularly when she clearly did not engage with that community

900
00:44:37.800 --> 00:44:40.960
<v Speaker 4>enough to fully understand the power of the issue in

901
00:44:41.000 --> 00:44:44.039
<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty four, is what you would be doing? Will

902
00:44:44.079 --> 00:44:46.079
<v Speaker 4>that work? Will she be able to pull it off?

903
00:44:46.119 --> 00:44:48.679
<v Speaker 2>That was going to be my next question, how much

904
00:44:48.679 --> 00:44:50.960
<v Speaker 2>how much credibility do you think she gets?

905
00:44:51.159 --> 00:44:53.000
<v Speaker 4>I think it would depend on how she delivers it

906
00:44:53.159 --> 00:44:55.519
<v Speaker 4>and how she can if she were to do it.

907
00:44:55.679 --> 00:44:59.119
<v Speaker 4>She cannot be She cannot head your words. She cannot

908
00:44:59.119 --> 00:45:01.480
<v Speaker 4>worry about Joe Biden's reaction to her words. You cannot

909
00:45:01.480 --> 00:45:03.480
<v Speaker 4>worry about whether she's going to anger people in the

910
00:45:03.519 --> 00:45:06.320
<v Speaker 4>national security world or the Biden national security team. She

911
00:45:06.480 --> 00:45:09.920
<v Speaker 4>has to do what you know what with people around

912
00:45:09.920 --> 00:45:13.599
<v Speaker 4>her were saying during the campaign was like this legitimate,

913
00:45:14.239 --> 00:45:19.559
<v Speaker 4>very real empathy for the Palestinians and anger at the

914
00:45:19.559 --> 00:45:22.920
<v Speaker 4>Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud

915
00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:25.000
<v Speaker 4>on the campaign and made a bunch of I think,

916
00:45:25.079 --> 00:45:28.599
<v Speaker 4>really tactical mistakes, like in the end, the idea that

917
00:45:28.679 --> 00:45:31.840
<v Speaker 4>you couldn't give one slot at the convention to a

918
00:45:31.880 --> 00:45:35.199
<v Speaker 4>speaker who would talk about, yeah, about what was going

919
00:45:35.239 --> 00:45:38.199
<v Speaker 4>on in Gaza is a just seems so crazy now

920
00:45:38.280 --> 00:45:41.280
<v Speaker 4>in hindsight. So it'd have to be to for her

921
00:45:41.320 --> 00:45:43.880
<v Speaker 4>to pull it off. It would have to be just

922
00:45:44.119 --> 00:45:46.480
<v Speaker 4>as I mean, it have to be with a level

923
00:45:46.519 --> 00:45:51.760
<v Speaker 4>of authenticity and visceral emotion and legitimate anger at what

924
00:45:51.880 --> 00:45:55.440
<v Speaker 4>happened before, and that you could not miss it. But

925
00:45:55.519 --> 00:45:57.880
<v Speaker 4>you can't. You can't focus group, but you can't have

926
00:45:58.039 --> 00:45:59.440
<v Speaker 4>your words, you can't worry about jo Biden.

927
00:45:59.559 --> 00:46:02.440
<v Speaker 2>I also think two other things. You have to own

928
00:46:02.480 --> 00:46:06.840
<v Speaker 2>some responsibility around that. It has to be like and

929
00:46:06.880 --> 00:46:09.000
<v Speaker 2>not well, I was vice president now, so I wasn't

930
00:46:09.000 --> 00:46:12.480
<v Speaker 2>supposed to say anything like a genuine like I was

931
00:46:12.519 --> 00:46:14.159
<v Speaker 2>wrong or I made a mistake, or I came to

932
00:46:14.199 --> 00:46:18.280
<v Speaker 2>this too late, like ye, And I think that it

933
00:46:18.320 --> 00:46:23.599
<v Speaker 2>had like she has to demonstrate that she actually cares

934
00:46:23.599 --> 00:46:26.400
<v Speaker 2>about this and it's actually angered her and she's actually

935
00:46:26.639 --> 00:46:29.800
<v Speaker 2>regretful for how it was handled, and not that she's

936
00:46:29.880 --> 00:46:32.039
<v Speaker 2>doing all the things she needs to do to check

937
00:46:32.079 --> 00:46:37.039
<v Speaker 2>the boxes to become the Democratic nominee that the Democratic

938
00:46:37.039 --> 00:46:40.079
<v Speaker 2>electorate wants right now, which is like always my concern

939
00:46:40.079 --> 00:46:42.760
<v Speaker 2>about her. You know, it's like I want to I

940
00:46:42.800 --> 00:46:45.119
<v Speaker 2>want to know if Kamala Harris wants to run again,

941
00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:47.360
<v Speaker 2>why she wants to run again and why she wants

942
00:46:47.360 --> 00:46:51.480
<v Speaker 2>to be president, And you can already tell like since

943
00:46:51.519 --> 00:46:53.920
<v Speaker 2>she lost, since the campaign, she's like trying out a

944
00:46:53.920 --> 00:46:56.480
<v Speaker 2>little like, well, I'm sort of an outsider. I've always

945
00:46:56.519 --> 00:47:00.000
<v Speaker 2>been an outsider. And it's like, yeah, there's anti established

946
00:47:00.239 --> 00:47:02.360
<v Speaker 2>further right now, I'm gonna jump on that train that

947
00:47:02.400 --> 00:47:04.840
<v Speaker 2>looks good like. And I'm not saying that this is

948
00:47:04.880 --> 00:47:08.920
<v Speaker 2>exactly what she believes, because I don't know, but it

949
00:47:09.719 --> 00:47:14.039
<v Speaker 2>could very easily come across like that. And my advice

950
00:47:14.079 --> 00:47:16.159
<v Speaker 2>to her would be, what do you actually want to

951
00:47:16.199 --> 00:47:18.440
<v Speaker 2>run for president? What do you really believe? What's really

952
00:47:18.480 --> 00:47:21.800
<v Speaker 2>angering you about the last four years? Talk about that

953
00:47:22.320 --> 00:47:26.199
<v Speaker 2>and if people, you know, if people believe that and

954
00:47:26.559 --> 00:47:30.400
<v Speaker 2>people find that persuasive, then you'll be the nominee. And

955
00:47:30.400 --> 00:47:33.079
<v Speaker 2>if not, they won't. But like you just don't don't

956
00:47:33.119 --> 00:47:37.039
<v Speaker 2>look at the the Democratic electorate as a I got

957
00:47:37.079 --> 00:47:38.760
<v Speaker 2>to get all the pieces together and this is what

958
00:47:38.800 --> 00:47:40.599
<v Speaker 2>I have to say and do, and if I press

959
00:47:40.639 --> 00:47:42.760
<v Speaker 2>all the right buttons, then suddenly I'll get the nomination.

960
00:47:42.960 --> 00:47:45.960
<v Speaker 2>You know. I just that's and that goes for any candidate,

961
00:47:46.000 --> 00:47:48.960
<v Speaker 2>for sure, But I think she has a particular challenge there.

962
00:47:49.000 --> 00:47:50.159
<v Speaker 4>I can't tell you something I think is going to

963
00:47:50.199 --> 00:47:55.119
<v Speaker 4>you're gonna find perhaps very disturbing and potentially exciting if

964
00:47:55.119 --> 00:47:58.840
<v Speaker 4>we follow by the previous the calendars of the previous cycles.

965
00:47:59.119 --> 00:48:02.159
<v Speaker 4>One year from right about now will be the first

966
00:48:02.519 --> 00:48:03.719
<v Speaker 4>Democratic primary debate.

967
00:48:03.920 --> 00:48:06.679
<v Speaker 2>Oh, just gutting noticious.

968
00:48:07.199 --> 00:48:10.559
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it usually happens in the summer of the year

969
00:48:10.599 --> 00:48:11.320
<v Speaker 4>prior to the election.

970
00:48:11.519 --> 00:48:15.280
<v Speaker 2>Oh, it's gonna be so bad. I'm just telling you,

971
00:48:16.000 --> 00:48:18.119
<v Speaker 2>I feel like the opening.

972
00:48:17.760 --> 00:48:19.679
<v Speaker 4>Skirmishes will be with that attitude.

973
00:48:19.719 --> 00:48:22.440
<v Speaker 2>The opening skirmishes of the Great Democratic War of twenty

974
00:48:22.519 --> 00:48:24.719
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight have already begun, and so far they haven't

975
00:48:24.719 --> 00:48:28.400
<v Speaker 2>been going well. I'm still I mean, we have just this.

976
00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:31.039
<v Speaker 2>This is like the the fucking tip of the iceberg.

977
00:48:31.159 --> 00:48:33.639
<v Speaker 2>It is gonna get so it's gonna make twenty twenty

978
00:48:33.719 --> 00:48:34.800
<v Speaker 2>look like a fucking field day.

979
00:48:35.320 --> 00:48:36.920
<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure. I'm not

980
00:48:36.920 --> 00:48:38.679
<v Speaker 4>saying it's gonna be great. I'm not saying it's gonna

981
00:48:38.679 --> 00:48:41.039
<v Speaker 4>be great. I think the there obviously there have to

982
00:48:41.079 --> 00:48:44.480
<v Speaker 4>be points of difference in discussion and debate, and those

983
00:48:44.519 --> 00:48:46.679
<v Speaker 4>will be painful because a lot of times people agree

984
00:48:46.679 --> 00:48:51.159
<v Speaker 4>on so much that you really are slicing the slammy

985
00:48:51.280 --> 00:48:53.440
<v Speaker 4>so thin. To get to that differently, I mean, as

986
00:48:53.480 --> 00:48:55.559
<v Speaker 4>it was with the Obama other than the Iraq War,

987
00:48:55.920 --> 00:48:58.000
<v Speaker 4>on all the issues with Obama and Clinton, like we

988
00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:01.400
<v Speaker 4>agread on a lot of stuff and so like policy stuff,

989
00:49:01.400 --> 00:49:03.679
<v Speaker 4>like approach of politics was very different. But on policy stuff,

990
00:49:03.920 --> 00:49:05.719
<v Speaker 4>you know, you're fighting over the individual mandate was the

991
00:49:05.719 --> 00:49:09.880
<v Speaker 4>main point of dispute point Hilary on that one. Yes,

992
00:49:12.360 --> 00:49:14.599
<v Speaker 4>so we'll say we want to talk about this now

993
00:49:14.639 --> 00:49:16.639
<v Speaker 4>you have a plan to catch Okay, about the polls,

994
00:49:16.679 --> 00:49:17.280
<v Speaker 4>so we'll keep going.

995
00:49:17.320 --> 00:49:20.000
<v Speaker 2>We'll keep going. Speaking of the fall elections, we are

996
00:49:20.039 --> 00:49:23.880
<v Speaker 2>now just four months out from these midterm elections. Forget

997
00:49:23.880 --> 00:49:27.400
<v Speaker 2>about the primary debates and our America. Two fifty Gift

998
00:49:27.480 --> 00:49:30.280
<v Speaker 2>DAN was a full round of times Sienna Senate polls

999
00:49:30.519 --> 00:49:34.039
<v Speaker 2>that were released Wednesday morning, which showed Democrats effectively tied

1000
00:49:34.400 --> 00:49:37.679
<v Speaker 2>but definitely not ahead in the effort to flip Republican

1001
00:49:37.760 --> 00:49:41.000
<v Speaker 2>held Senate seats. In Alaska, they have Mary Peltola just

1002
00:49:41.039 --> 00:49:44.239
<v Speaker 2>two points behind Dan Sullivan and Ohio Shared Brown is

1003
00:49:44.280 --> 00:49:48.000
<v Speaker 2>down three to John Houstead, and Iowa Josh Turik is

1004
00:49:48.039 --> 00:49:50.920
<v Speaker 2>two behind Ashley Hinson. In their polls of Maine and

1005
00:49:50.920 --> 00:49:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Texas released over the last few days, they have Graham

1006
00:49:53.000 --> 00:49:55.960
<v Speaker 2>Plattner up two points on Susan Collins and James Tallerico

1007
00:49:55.960 --> 00:49:59.519
<v Speaker 2>and Ken Paxton tied. The only clear leader is Democrat

1008
00:49:59.559 --> 00:50:02.079
<v Speaker 2>Roy Coop. We're in North Carolina, they have him up

1009
00:50:02.159 --> 00:50:05.599
<v Speaker 2>seven on Michael Wattley. There were also new Fox News

1010
00:50:05.599 --> 00:50:07.719
<v Speaker 2>polls out this week that have plattinered down three to

1011
00:50:07.760 --> 00:50:11.519
<v Speaker 2>Susan Collins and Turk up four on Hinston and Iowa.

1012
00:50:12.199 --> 00:50:14.119
<v Speaker 2>Any big picture thoughts before we get into some of

1013
00:50:14.159 --> 00:50:15.639
<v Speaker 2>the specific races.

1014
00:50:16.320 --> 00:50:21.679
<v Speaker 4>These polls are a somewhat painful reality check of just

1015
00:50:21.760 --> 00:50:24.559
<v Speaker 4>how tough the Senate map is. When you dig into

1016
00:50:24.599 --> 00:50:27.039
<v Speaker 4>these these you know, as everyone knows, we got a

1017
00:50:27.079 --> 00:50:28.440
<v Speaker 4>win Maine, we have to win North Carolina. We have

1018
00:50:28.480 --> 00:50:33.119
<v Speaker 4>to win two of Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio. These are

1019
00:50:33.599 --> 00:50:36.079
<v Speaker 4>very Republican states. Trump won those four by at least

1020
00:50:36.119 --> 00:50:38.920
<v Speaker 4>double digits. When you look on the insides of the

1021
00:50:38.920 --> 00:50:41.440
<v Speaker 4>polls majorities in all those states. I think the Democratic

1022
00:50:41.480 --> 00:50:43.480
<v Speaker 4>Party is too far on the left. This is a

1023
00:50:43.480 --> 00:50:44.760
<v Speaker 4>group of people. We think about how.

1024
00:50:44.719 --> 00:50:48.519
<v Speaker 2>Much fifty three percent too far to the left, eight

1025
00:50:48.519 --> 00:50:52.119
<v Speaker 2>percent too far to the right, thirty five percent neither

1026
00:50:52.679 --> 00:50:53.400
<v Speaker 2>not great.

1027
00:50:53.519 --> 00:50:56.639
<v Speaker 4>You like we talked about how angry people are at Trump.

1028
00:50:56.679 --> 00:50:58.719
<v Speaker 4>His approval rating in these states is all pretty good.

1029
00:50:59.599 --> 00:51:04.639
<v Speaker 4>Like in most cases in the they Republicans lead the

1030
00:51:04.639 --> 00:51:06.920
<v Speaker 4>generic ballot in all these dates by at least six points.

1031
00:51:07.480 --> 00:51:10.079
<v Speaker 4>They want Republican control of Senate by at least six points,

1032
00:51:11.199 --> 00:51:13.159
<v Speaker 4>except in Maine. Let's put maineus in North Carolina.

1033
00:51:13.360 --> 00:51:16.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, that's which is. We should talk about that

1034
00:51:16.320 --> 00:51:18.639
<v Speaker 2>because Roy Cooper's doing well. But the generic ballot in

1035
00:51:18.639 --> 00:51:21.000
<v Speaker 2>North Carolina is also de plus six, I believe, which

1036
00:51:21.000 --> 00:51:21.320
<v Speaker 2>is crazy.

1037
00:51:21.400 --> 00:51:24.679
<v Speaker 4>North Carolina is performing like a pretty Democratic state in

1038
00:51:24.719 --> 00:51:28.000
<v Speaker 4>this environment, it's de plus six. They want Democrats control

1039
00:51:28.039 --> 00:51:31.599
<v Speaker 4>the Senate. It is. I mean, we're people are talking

1040
00:51:31.599 --> 00:51:33.239
<v Speaker 4>a lot about great work Cooper's doing. He's doing great,

1041
00:51:33.239 --> 00:51:35.679
<v Speaker 4>he's a great candidate, but he's actually only overperforming the

1042
00:51:36.119 --> 00:51:38.639
<v Speaker 4>generic ballot by one point. Yes, and a lot of

1043
00:51:38.639 --> 00:51:42.840
<v Speaker 4>these candidates in the more Republican states are overperforming the

1044
00:51:42.880 --> 00:51:46.400
<v Speaker 4>Democratic the generic ballot by three to three to eight

1045
00:51:46.400 --> 00:51:51.320
<v Speaker 4>points in some cases, you know, And so it's it's

1046
00:51:51.360 --> 00:51:53.920
<v Speaker 4>the point is we have a shot in all of

1047
00:51:53.920 --> 00:51:55.760
<v Speaker 4>these races, and that is something that you could not

1048
00:51:55.840 --> 00:51:59.280
<v Speaker 4>have said six to eight months ago. But it is

1049
00:51:59.440 --> 00:52:02.119
<v Speaker 4>very hard. And it's also other than in Texas, Republicans

1050
00:52:02.159 --> 00:52:05.440
<v Speaker 4>have actually nominated fine candidates, Ashley Hinson, John Hugh said,

1051
00:52:05.440 --> 00:52:09.320
<v Speaker 4>are generic Republicans and Dan Sulvan's like maybe a little

1052
00:52:09.320 --> 00:52:11.639
<v Speaker 4>bit worse than gener Republican, but basically a generic Republican.

1053
00:52:11.960 --> 00:52:14.480
<v Speaker 4>We have great candidates, but is it going to be enough?

1054
00:52:14.760 --> 00:52:17.039
<v Speaker 2>So this is what I was getting at a little earlier,

1055
00:52:17.320 --> 00:52:21.039
<v Speaker 2>is my take, my overall take on these polls. And

1056
00:52:21.079 --> 00:52:24.440
<v Speaker 2>again New York Times polls aren't perfect, but they are

1057
00:52:24.679 --> 00:52:27.599
<v Speaker 2>as close to perfect as we have. You know, they

1058
00:52:27.599 --> 00:52:29.920
<v Speaker 2>were off again in twenty twenty four. But like again,

1059
00:52:30.119 --> 00:52:31.840
<v Speaker 2>the purpose of a poll is not to nail the

1060
00:52:31.880 --> 00:52:35.599
<v Speaker 2>exact result. I know that might sound shocking, but it's true.

1061
00:52:36.199 --> 00:52:38.159
<v Speaker 2>It gets you within the ballpark. And in terms of

1062
00:52:38.199 --> 00:52:39.800
<v Speaker 2>within the ballpark, no one does it better than the

1063
00:52:39.800 --> 00:52:41.599
<v Speaker 2>New York Times, which is why we take these seriously

1064
00:52:41.639 --> 00:52:44.480
<v Speaker 2>and dig in on them. So my take overall, if

1065
00:52:44.480 --> 00:52:46.960
<v Speaker 2>you set all the candidates aside, we have done a

1066
00:52:47.000 --> 00:52:50.119
<v Speaker 2>great job persuading people, even people in red states, that

1067
00:52:50.599 --> 00:52:53.079
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is doing a terrible job as president. I

1068
00:52:53.119 --> 00:52:55.760
<v Speaker 2>know you said, like it's forty three percent, that's not

1069
00:52:55.840 --> 00:52:59.000
<v Speaker 2>a great approval eating in red states, like I would

1070
00:52:59.039 --> 00:53:01.800
<v Speaker 2>have you know, that's that's pretty bad. And I know

1071
00:53:01.840 --> 00:53:03.440
<v Speaker 2>now we're getting used to because some of these national

1072
00:53:03.440 --> 00:53:05.320
<v Speaker 2>polls have them in like the high thirties. We're getting

1073
00:53:05.360 --> 00:53:07.800
<v Speaker 2>used to that. But like for any forty three is bad.

1074
00:53:08.960 --> 00:53:10.840
<v Speaker 2>It's enough to lose, right if he was running in

1075
00:53:10.840 --> 00:53:13.960
<v Speaker 2>those states. We have not done a good job persuading

1076
00:53:13.960 --> 00:53:17.199
<v Speaker 2>people that the Republicans in Congress are the primary reason

1077
00:53:17.559 --> 00:53:19.360
<v Speaker 2>that Trump has been able to make their lives worse.

1078
00:53:20.239 --> 00:53:23.320
<v Speaker 2>That's that's my larger takeaway, because you would think that

1079
00:53:23.360 --> 00:53:25.679
<v Speaker 2>the Republican I mean and the generic ballot, right, like

1080
00:53:25.760 --> 00:53:27.760
<v Speaker 2>if you take the candidates out of it, because people

1081
00:53:27.760 --> 00:53:30.599
<v Speaker 2>want to talk about like this candidate's more strong, stronger,

1082
00:53:30.679 --> 00:53:33.360
<v Speaker 2>this one's weaker, And if you take all the candidates

1083
00:53:33.360 --> 00:53:34.719
<v Speaker 2>out of it, you just look at, you know, who

1084
00:53:34.760 --> 00:53:37.119
<v Speaker 2>do you want to control Congress? You asked that question

1085
00:53:37.159 --> 00:53:39.840
<v Speaker 2>the voters, which they did. The generic ballot is just

1086
00:53:40.440 --> 00:53:43.760
<v Speaker 2>very positive for Republicans and most of these red states,

1087
00:53:43.880 --> 00:53:47.559
<v Speaker 2>even even as Donald Trump's approval rating in those same

1088
00:53:47.679 --> 00:53:51.840
<v Speaker 2>states is well under fifty percent. And that's why do

1089
00:53:51.880 --> 00:53:52.360
<v Speaker 2>you think that.

1090
00:53:52.360 --> 00:53:56.519
<v Speaker 4>Is because people don't like Democrats like these All these

1091
00:53:56.559 --> 00:54:01.199
<v Speaker 4>candidates are doing great, they are, they are out performing.

1092
00:54:02.599 --> 00:54:02.800
<v Speaker 5>Well.

1093
00:54:03.000 --> 00:54:04.440
<v Speaker 4>I want to all like all the candidates in the

1094
00:54:04.440 --> 00:54:07.800
<v Speaker 4>four red states. I want to put Roy Cooper Platinu

1095
00:54:07.800 --> 00:54:12.760
<v Speaker 4>aside now, and I'd actually put Texas aside in a

1096
00:54:12.760 --> 00:54:16.360
<v Speaker 4>little bit here. But in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.

1097
00:54:16.559 --> 00:54:19.079
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, those are exactly that's a good model, that's a

1098
00:54:19.079 --> 00:54:19.480
<v Speaker 2>good group.

1099
00:54:19.800 --> 00:54:24.880
<v Speaker 4>They they are. These are very Republican states in Iowa, Ohio.

1100
00:54:24.960 --> 00:54:28.880
<v Speaker 4>The hardest part here is these where Trump has lost

1101
00:54:28.920 --> 00:54:34.239
<v Speaker 4>ground is mostly with younger voters and Latino voters. And

1102
00:54:34.320 --> 00:54:37.159
<v Speaker 4>these are very white, very old states. They are whiter

1103
00:54:37.199 --> 00:54:39.800
<v Speaker 4>than the national average, they are older than the national average.

1104
00:54:39.840 --> 00:54:42.440
<v Speaker 4>And so there's just less the voters who are leaving

1105
00:54:42.440 --> 00:54:45.519
<v Speaker 4>Trump and coming to our side. There's just fewer of

1106
00:54:45.559 --> 00:54:48.480
<v Speaker 4>them in these It's a more statical elector. Alaska's more confusing.

1107
00:54:48.519 --> 00:54:50.320
<v Speaker 4>Alaska is not actually a white state, but it is not,

1108
00:54:50.440 --> 00:54:53.519
<v Speaker 4>but it obviously has a very low Latino and black

1109
00:54:53.559 --> 00:54:56.159
<v Speaker 4>population as a native population, which just is a little

1110
00:54:56.159 --> 00:55:00.039
<v Speaker 4>bit different. Texas is interesting because Texas is a a

1111
00:55:00.119 --> 00:55:04.480
<v Speaker 4>majority minority state and has a huge Latino vote, which

1112
00:55:04.480 --> 00:55:07.599
<v Speaker 4>is why Tallarico is tied in that race.

1113
00:55:07.719 --> 00:55:10.719
<v Speaker 2>So I was surprised in Texas that the generic ballot

1114
00:55:10.760 --> 00:55:15.400
<v Speaker 2>is still Republican plus six if most of the gains

1115
00:55:15.639 --> 00:55:19.280
<v Speaker 2>are younger voters and Latino voters, because Texas has plenty

1116
00:55:19.360 --> 00:55:19.960
<v Speaker 2>of both of those.

1117
00:55:20.159 --> 00:55:22.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's six in the state

1118
00:55:22.920 --> 00:55:23.760
<v Speaker 4>that Trump won by.

1119
00:55:24.519 --> 00:55:27.079
<v Speaker 2>Thirteen Oh, okay, okay, I forgot that he would be

1120
00:55:27.199 --> 00:55:27.559
<v Speaker 2>that much.

1121
00:55:27.920 --> 00:55:29.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, in every one of these states, Trump won by

1122
00:55:29.880 --> 00:55:31.320
<v Speaker 4>at least eleven eleven points.

1123
00:55:31.559 --> 00:55:41.559
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1124
00:55:41.800 --> 00:55:44.480
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1125
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1151
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1152
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<v Speaker 3>this episode.

1155
00:57:00.519 --> 00:57:03.880
<v Speaker 2>Let's say on those three Iowa, Alaska, Ohio. One thing

1156
00:57:03.920 --> 00:57:06.480
<v Speaker 2>on Alaska we should note is that Nate Cohne wrote

1157
00:57:06.519 --> 00:57:09.760
<v Speaker 2>like a separate thing on why the methodology and the

1158
00:57:09.840 --> 00:57:12.800
<v Speaker 2>Alaska sample might be a little weird and different, and

1159
00:57:12.840 --> 00:57:14.760
<v Speaker 2>we're not going to nerd out on that. But the

1160
00:57:14.840 --> 00:57:18.239
<v Speaker 2>upside is the Alaska results could be actually better than

1161
00:57:18.440 --> 00:57:23.079
<v Speaker 2>it appears here. Iowa and Ohio I think more fit

1162
00:57:23.199 --> 00:57:27.559
<v Speaker 2>the issue with just white voters everywhere. But I do

1163
00:57:27.599 --> 00:57:31.480
<v Speaker 2>think what's notable is we have all of our candidates

1164
00:57:31.519 --> 00:57:33.719
<v Speaker 2>in those states, like you said, are out running the

1165
00:57:33.800 --> 00:57:37.119
<v Speaker 2>generic ballot. So the Democrats are viewed the Democratic candidates

1166
00:57:37.119 --> 00:57:39.480
<v Speaker 2>are viewed as less extreme than the national Party, and

1167
00:57:39.480 --> 00:57:44.960
<v Speaker 2>they're more liked than average. And the Republican candidates in

1168
00:57:44.960 --> 00:57:48.480
<v Speaker 2>those states, though are also have a higher favorability rating

1169
00:57:48.519 --> 00:57:50.360
<v Speaker 2>than average. So I do think in those three states

1170
00:57:50.440 --> 00:57:55.599
<v Speaker 2>especially so it's Dan Sullivan, John Houstead, and Ashley Hinson

1171
00:57:55.639 --> 00:57:57.679
<v Speaker 2>who's also in Congress. She's not a senator, but she's

1172
00:57:57.840 --> 00:58:00.440
<v Speaker 2>a rep I think like there's a lot of there's

1173
00:58:00.440 --> 00:58:03.760
<v Speaker 2>a lot of work to be done on pinning the

1174
00:58:03.840 --> 00:58:06.719
<v Speaker 2>last couple of years of Donald Trump on those three

1175
00:58:06.960 --> 00:58:10.320
<v Speaker 2>incumbents who are in Washington. We are in an anti establishment,

1176
00:58:10.559 --> 00:58:14.280
<v Speaker 2>anti incumbent mood. Those people have been voting for Trump

1177
00:58:14.559 --> 00:58:16.880
<v Speaker 2>and voting for and helping Trump one hundred percent, not

1178
00:58:16.920 --> 00:58:18.760
<v Speaker 2>stopping him. So it feels like there's just a lot

1179
00:58:18.760 --> 00:58:21.719
<v Speaker 2>of work to be done there is that. Would you agree, Yeah?

1180
00:58:21.760 --> 00:58:24.960
<v Speaker 4>I would. I would say that it's tricky because what

1181
00:58:25.079 --> 00:58:28.960
<v Speaker 4>are you moving like in doing that? Are you like?

1182
00:58:29.000 --> 00:58:29.920
<v Speaker 4>The question is interesting?

1183
00:58:30.079 --> 00:58:32.639
<v Speaker 2>You're trying to find in those in those states, and

1184
00:58:32.639 --> 00:58:35.559
<v Speaker 2>according to this polls, there are a bunch of Trump

1185
00:58:35.599 --> 00:58:41.519
<v Speaker 2>disapprovers don't like Donald Trump, who are nonetheless inclined to

1186
00:58:41.599 --> 00:58:44.320
<v Speaker 2>vote for a Republican candidate for Senate. And I think

1187
00:58:44.360 --> 00:58:46.000
<v Speaker 2>those are the people that you want to get.

1188
00:58:46.199 --> 00:58:48.679
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I agree with that. The thing that is the

1189
00:58:48.719 --> 00:58:51.199
<v Speaker 4>question the generic ballad is interesting in this race. In

1190
00:58:51.239 --> 00:58:53.360
<v Speaker 4>these races, the question that's more interesting, which kind of

1191
00:58:53.360 --> 00:58:55.840
<v Speaker 4>lines up the generic ballad, but is who do you

1192
00:58:55.880 --> 00:58:58.440
<v Speaker 4>want to control the Senate? Right, and we Probamlys have

1193
00:58:58.480 --> 00:59:01.559
<v Speaker 4>a big advantage on that basically into the generic ballot.

1194
00:59:01.599 --> 00:59:05.199
<v Speaker 4>It's eleven in Alaska. They didn't ask the generic ballot

1195
00:59:05.239 --> 00:59:06.840
<v Speaker 4>question in Alaska because there's only one number of congress

1196
00:59:06.840 --> 00:59:08.440
<v Speaker 4>that they just asked about that race. And that's not

1197
00:59:08.559 --> 00:59:10.920
<v Speaker 4>I think immediately transferable to the political environment because it's

1198
00:59:10.920 --> 00:59:14.519
<v Speaker 4>a known quantity right in Nick Begich there. But it

1199
00:59:14.960 --> 00:59:16.920
<v Speaker 4>you know, that is hard, Like they're going to make

1200
00:59:16.920 --> 00:59:19.360
<v Speaker 4>the race be about you vote a vote for Mary Potles,

1201
00:59:19.360 --> 00:59:21.039
<v Speaker 4>a vote to make Chuck Schumer and a bunch of

1202
00:59:21.920 --> 00:59:24.480
<v Speaker 4>DSA people or whatever in charge of the Senate. And

1203
00:59:24.519 --> 00:59:26.960
<v Speaker 4>so you need eleven you need eleven percent of them

1204
00:59:27.280 --> 00:59:30.679
<v Speaker 4>to say no, we will will take Mary Paltle anyway.

1205
00:59:30.679 --> 00:59:33.199
<v Speaker 4>Like that's hard. I think Ohio is how Ohio is

1206
00:59:33.199 --> 00:59:36.599
<v Speaker 4>indicative of the larger challenge here, which is Shared Brown

1207
00:59:36.639 --> 00:59:38.800
<v Speaker 4>has a plus eight favorable rating and a Trump state

1208
00:59:38.840 --> 00:59:44.440
<v Speaker 4>of the Trump one by eleven. A majority of Ohioans do

1209
00:59:44.639 --> 00:59:46.599
<v Speaker 4>not think that Shared Brown is too far in the

1210
00:59:46.679 --> 00:59:51.159
<v Speaker 4>left a But although a majority of Ohioans think the

1211
00:59:51.199 --> 00:59:53.440
<v Speaker 4>Democratic Party is see for the left, if the goal

1212
00:59:53.480 --> 00:59:55.960
<v Speaker 4>is to not be a typical Democrat. Shared Brown has

1213
00:59:56.000 --> 00:59:56.880
<v Speaker 4>fucking nailed it.

1214
00:59:56.960 --> 00:59:57.199
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

1215
00:59:57.320 --> 00:59:59.880
<v Speaker 4>He is like he has a relationship with the voters.

1216
01:00:00.519 --> 01:00:03.239
<v Speaker 4>They like him, they think he's different than the Democrats they.

1217
01:00:03.159 --> 01:00:05.679
<v Speaker 2>Hate, and he hasn't moderated his views on anything. By

1218
01:00:05.679 --> 01:00:07.960
<v Speaker 2>the way. You feel like he was just at our

1219
01:00:07.960 --> 01:00:09.960
<v Speaker 2>house doing a fundraiser a couple of weeks ago, and

1220
01:00:10.119 --> 01:00:12.199
<v Speaker 2>he sounds exactly the same as he has for the

1221
01:00:12.239 --> 01:00:13.159
<v Speaker 2>last several decades.

1222
01:00:13.360 --> 01:00:15.360
<v Speaker 4>Well, now he's down four. Great, thanks for telling everyone that.

1223
01:00:15.400 --> 01:00:20.800
<v Speaker 4>But but what's interesting is if you compare the results

1224
01:00:20.800 --> 01:00:23.599
<v Speaker 4>of this poll to the exit poll of the Ohio

1225
01:00:23.679 --> 01:00:27.320
<v Speaker 4>Senate race in twenty twenty four, he is doing exactly

1226
01:00:27.360 --> 01:00:30.159
<v Speaker 4>the same as he was in that race, exactly. His

1227
01:00:30.280 --> 01:00:33.079
<v Speaker 4>percentage of the white non college vote, which is a

1228
01:00:33.440 --> 01:00:36.760
<v Speaker 4>majority of the basically half the vote in Ohio, is

1229
01:00:36.800 --> 01:00:40.599
<v Speaker 4>exactly the same. And he's doing no better than Kamala

1230
01:00:40.639 --> 01:00:43.199
<v Speaker 4>Harris did essentially nationally with them. But he's getting thirty

1231
01:00:43.400 --> 01:00:44.480
<v Speaker 4>six percent.

1232
01:00:44.440 --> 01:00:45.559
<v Speaker 2>And what do we do about that?

1233
01:00:45.719 --> 01:00:47.559
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's this is this is why Ohio is

1234
01:00:47.639 --> 01:00:51.800
<v Speaker 4>such a hard fucking state. Now, can he convince some

1235
01:00:52.079 --> 01:00:53.639
<v Speaker 4>like there are places where he can make gains. He

1236
01:00:53.639 --> 01:00:56.360
<v Speaker 4>can make gains with black voters in that's how you

1237
01:00:56.360 --> 01:00:58.039
<v Speaker 4>can check out black turnout. He can do better with

1238
01:00:58.039 --> 01:01:00.559
<v Speaker 4>the younger There are places to get there. But this

1239
01:01:00.639 --> 01:01:02.039
<v Speaker 4>is why he's down three And this is why these

1240
01:01:02.039 --> 01:01:05.239
<v Speaker 4>states are so hard, because even though he is well liked,

1241
01:01:05.599 --> 01:01:10.159
<v Speaker 4>he is not extreme people, he is not getting more

1242
01:01:10.239 --> 01:01:12.639
<v Speaker 4>votes than he did four years ago. Two years ago.

1243
01:01:12.760 --> 01:01:14.639
<v Speaker 4>That's a hard part about running Shared around two years later.

1244
01:01:14.840 --> 01:01:16.639
<v Speaker 4>You're going to need some people who voted for Houston

1245
01:01:16.719 --> 01:01:19.199
<v Speaker 4>to either stay home or voted for Bernie Marino over

1246
01:01:19.239 --> 01:01:21.519
<v Speaker 4>Shared round to either change their vote or stay home.

1247
01:01:21.519 --> 01:01:22.840
<v Speaker 4>And that's not super easy.

1248
01:01:23.079 --> 01:01:24.960
<v Speaker 2>Was the difference is, And this is one of the

1249
01:01:25.000 --> 01:01:26.639
<v Speaker 2>reasons these poles sort of brought me back down to

1250
01:01:26.679 --> 01:01:30.280
<v Speaker 2>earth in a serious way. Is two years ago he

1251
01:01:30.320 --> 01:01:32.880
<v Speaker 2>was running in a presidential electorate where which is obviously

1252
01:01:32.960 --> 01:01:34.559
<v Speaker 2>going to be harder for a Democrat and to stay

1253
01:01:34.639 --> 01:01:38.360
<v Speaker 2>like Ohio, I guess I assumed that a midterm electorate

1254
01:01:38.719 --> 01:01:43.599
<v Speaker 2>would be better for Democrats than it is in these polls.

1255
01:01:43.719 --> 01:01:46.079
<v Speaker 2>And I always thought that Shared's chance and I still do.

1256
01:01:46.360 --> 01:01:48.639
<v Speaker 2>The Shared's chance to win this time versus last time

1257
01:01:49.039 --> 01:01:51.800
<v Speaker 2>is the fact that he's just going to be running

1258
01:01:51.800 --> 01:01:55.440
<v Speaker 2>in a different electorate where there's fewer non college educated

1259
01:01:55.440 --> 01:01:57.480
<v Speaker 2>white voters who turn out to vote in the midterm

1260
01:01:57.480 --> 01:01:59.000
<v Speaker 2>than there are in a presidential.

1261
01:01:58.920 --> 01:02:01.239
<v Speaker 4>Well, the problem is Ohio was an older, white, non

1262
01:02:01.280 --> 01:02:04.119
<v Speaker 4>college turnout state, and those people voted at a higher rate.

1263
01:02:04.239 --> 01:02:05.960
<v Speaker 4>And as Nate con pointed out in his analysis of

1264
01:02:06.000 --> 01:02:08.039
<v Speaker 4>the polls, a lot of the voters who have left

1265
01:02:08.079 --> 01:02:11.760
<v Speaker 4>Trump don't vote hi mid terms, right, and and that

1266
01:02:11.880 --> 01:02:14.079
<v Speaker 4>is going to be more true in a state like Ohio,

1267
01:02:14.079 --> 01:02:17.280
<v Speaker 4>which has it just say like that's interesting. Ohio is

1268
01:02:17.360 --> 01:02:20.039
<v Speaker 4>just this state that because this seems crazy that people

1269
01:02:20.039 --> 01:02:22.159
<v Speaker 4>who've only been watching politics for the last couple of

1270
01:02:22.159 --> 01:02:24.639
<v Speaker 4>presential elections, but prior to that it was the election,

1271
01:02:24.880 --> 01:02:27.440
<v Speaker 4>the state that decided the presidency and basically every election,

1272
01:02:28.079 --> 01:02:30.920
<v Speaker 4>and it has been registered and organized within an inch

1273
01:02:30.960 --> 01:02:33.400
<v Speaker 4>of its life. And one reason why it was felt

1274
01:02:33.440 --> 01:02:35.840
<v Speaker 4>hard for Obama was we always felt like we could

1275
01:02:35.880 --> 01:02:39.519
<v Speaker 4>do best in states that had large unregistered populations, potential

1276
01:02:39.519 --> 01:02:45.159
<v Speaker 4>Democrats North Carolina, Florida, the hisstory that was dream that

1277
01:02:45.159 --> 01:02:47.599
<v Speaker 4>was dream about Texas over the years, and Ohio just

1278
01:02:47.639 --> 01:02:49.880
<v Speaker 4>had there were no there were no new votes to get. Yeah,

1279
01:02:50.320 --> 01:02:52.480
<v Speaker 4>young people were leaving, and so it's it is a

1280
01:02:52.599 --> 01:02:54.639
<v Speaker 4>it's a hard it's a hard state. Can he still

1281
01:02:54.639 --> 01:02:57.920
<v Speaker 4>win it, Absolutely he can. But I think it just

1282
01:02:57.920 --> 01:03:02.920
<v Speaker 4>speaks to how like why this is hard. It's doable,

1283
01:03:03.480 --> 01:03:07.559
<v Speaker 4>It's doable in all these states. But these are horror states.

1284
01:03:07.599 --> 01:03:10.519
<v Speaker 2>And by the way, it's why North Carolina and Texas

1285
01:03:10.599 --> 01:03:13.639
<v Speaker 2>are states that not just this cycle, but many cycles

1286
01:03:13.639 --> 01:03:17.119
<v Speaker 2>into the future. Democrats just have to win at some

1287
01:03:17.159 --> 01:03:21.000
<v Speaker 2>points because you don't run into the same older white

1288
01:03:21.039 --> 01:03:25.199
<v Speaker 2>voters and no new voters issue in those states because

1289
01:03:25.559 --> 01:03:27.119
<v Speaker 2>so many people have been moving to them over the

1290
01:03:27.199 --> 01:03:29.960
<v Speaker 2>last decade. They're becoming more diverse there, becoming younger, and

1291
01:03:30.039 --> 01:03:33.840
<v Speaker 2>so on paper, they should be states that Democrats have

1292
01:03:33.840 --> 01:03:36.880
<v Speaker 2>a better chance in than places like Ohio and Iowa

1293
01:03:37.079 --> 01:03:40.199
<v Speaker 2>long term. Long term, I am interested in why the

1294
01:03:40.239 --> 01:03:42.119
<v Speaker 2>generic ballot in North Carolina is so good.

1295
01:03:42.719 --> 01:03:44.800
<v Speaker 4>Well, it is thinking about this way. It's a state

1296
01:03:44.840 --> 01:03:48.920
<v Speaker 4>that Trump won by two points. I think I think

1297
01:03:48.960 --> 01:03:49.440
<v Speaker 4>two points.

1298
01:03:49.519 --> 01:03:50.559
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was very close.

1299
01:03:50.880 --> 01:03:52.559
<v Speaker 4>He barely only he want to buy less than a

1300
01:03:52.599 --> 01:03:55.599
<v Speaker 4>point in twenty twenty. And so if you think that

1301
01:03:55.840 --> 01:04:00.280
<v Speaker 4>the generic ballot is plus seven or eight nationally, that

1302
01:04:00.400 --> 01:04:01.800
<v Speaker 4>it kind of gets you to a plus sex.

1303
01:04:01.880 --> 01:04:04.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah, and so there's and that's Roy Cooper. There

1304
01:04:04.599 --> 01:04:07.880
<v Speaker 2>is just you know, he's just trucking through and not

1305
01:04:08.000 --> 01:04:10.599
<v Speaker 2>really getting any national attention and the race is kind

1306
01:04:10.639 --> 01:04:13.519
<v Speaker 2>of quiet and it's benefiting him. That's it's probably a

1307
01:04:13.519 --> 01:04:15.920
<v Speaker 2>state where getting attention is a bad thing.

1308
01:04:16.519 --> 01:04:18.599
<v Speaker 4>Well, he doesn't need attention because he has high name

1309
01:04:18.639 --> 01:04:20.960
<v Speaker 4>my date. Voters like him, right, right, so he does

1310
01:04:20.960 --> 01:04:22.360
<v Speaker 4>not need to be doing tech talk dances.

1311
01:04:22.440 --> 01:04:24.239
<v Speaker 2>And then before we get to Maine, because Texas is

1312
01:04:24.280 --> 01:04:27.400
<v Speaker 2>sort of the opposite issue, which is I do think

1313
01:04:27.480 --> 01:04:30.840
<v Speaker 2>in Texas, obviously James Hillary goes a strong candidate. We've

1314
01:04:30.840 --> 01:04:33.320
<v Speaker 2>talked about that a lot, and there's been a shift

1315
01:04:33.800 --> 01:04:36.920
<v Speaker 2>in the ballot, the generic ballot in Texas. But I

1316
01:04:36.920 --> 01:04:39.039
<v Speaker 2>think it's fair to say that Ken Paxton as the

1317
01:04:39.039 --> 01:04:42.480
<v Speaker 2>candidate and his his problems and issues are are hurting

1318
01:04:42.519 --> 01:04:43.480
<v Speaker 2>him in these polls.

1319
01:04:43.760 --> 01:04:48.360
<v Speaker 4>Yes, he people, it's a little bit like uh, Maine.

1320
01:04:48.119 --> 01:04:49.159
<v Speaker 2>That's right, that's why, Yeah, that's what.

1321
01:04:50.159 --> 01:04:53.239
<v Speaker 4>It's absolutely hurting him. What is interesting is I find

1322
01:04:53.239 --> 01:04:56.920
<v Speaker 4>this impossible to believe, and it may be the factory

1323
01:04:56.960 --> 01:05:00.280
<v Speaker 4>that ends linear political television advertising forever, which is the

1324
01:05:00.320 --> 01:05:04.880
<v Speaker 4>Texas primary was the most expensive primary in history, ungodly

1325
01:05:04.960 --> 01:05:07.559
<v Speaker 4>amounts of money were spent by John Cornyn and Cornyn

1326
01:05:07.639 --> 01:05:09.800
<v Speaker 4>super PACs. Most of that money was spent by the

1327
01:05:09.840 --> 01:05:14.039
<v Speaker 4>Corny inside telling people about what a corrupt dickhead Ken

1328
01:05:14.039 --> 01:05:16.599
<v Speaker 4>Paxon is an Only thirty eight percent of voters to

1329
01:05:16.880 --> 01:05:18.760
<v Speaker 4>that report hearing a lot about it.

1330
01:05:19.119 --> 01:05:21.440
<v Speaker 2>And yet when you go to Maine, most voters have

1331
01:05:21.559 --> 01:05:22.960
<v Speaker 2>heard about Grand Platner stuff.

1332
01:05:23.119 --> 01:05:26.360
<v Speaker 4>Nearly nine in ten voters have heard about Grand platter stuff.

1333
01:05:26.480 --> 01:05:29.840
<v Speaker 2>Now, part of this is Maine is a smaller state,

1334
01:05:30.639 --> 01:05:33.440
<v Speaker 2>much smaller state, And I think it's word travels fast

1335
01:05:33.480 --> 01:05:36.320
<v Speaker 2>there and people know and and I think that you know,

1336
01:05:36.400 --> 01:05:38.800
<v Speaker 2>there's opportunities there as well for platinir. But I think

1337
01:05:39.519 --> 01:05:42.840
<v Speaker 2>it does say something about the sort of the gap

1338
01:05:42.880 --> 01:05:45.719
<v Speaker 2>between when there's a right wing boogeyman and a left

1339
01:05:45.760 --> 01:05:46.360
<v Speaker 2>wing boogeyman.

1340
01:05:46.719 --> 01:05:48.840
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but it is. It's the thing is is that

1341
01:05:48.920 --> 01:05:51.840
<v Speaker 4>there was the entire Republican Party infrastructure was spend one

1342
01:05:51.880 --> 01:05:53.719
<v Speaker 4>hundreds of millions of dollars. Who tell people this about

1343
01:05:53.760 --> 01:05:56.679
<v Speaker 4>Ken Paxson and people still haven't heard it. Yeah, so

1344
01:05:56.760 --> 01:05:58.400
<v Speaker 4>maybe they were doing it in the wrong way.

1345
01:05:58.960 --> 01:06:01.039
<v Speaker 2>I think you're right. I think it's TV stuff it's

1346
01:06:01.079 --> 01:06:04.440
<v Speaker 2>like an online like. We weren't talking about all of

1347
01:06:04.480 --> 01:06:07.760
<v Speaker 2>Ken Paxton's problems until it was, you know, time to vote.

1348
01:06:08.960 --> 01:06:10.679
<v Speaker 2>It just didn't. It didn't break through in the last

1349
01:06:10.760 --> 01:06:13.199
<v Speaker 2>year the way that Grand Platter stuff broke through. Let's

1350
01:06:13.199 --> 01:06:18.039
<v Speaker 2>talk about Maine. So Democratic Party machineries getting behind Platner

1351
01:06:18.400 --> 01:06:22.320
<v Speaker 2>grudgingly or otherwise. The Senate focused pack majority forward is

1352
01:06:22.320 --> 01:06:24.519
<v Speaker 2>that with their first attack at on Susan Collins. Let's

1353
01:06:24.519 --> 01:06:26.119
<v Speaker 2>take a look and then we'll talk about the polling.

1354
01:06:25.920 --> 01:06:30.960
<v Speaker 7>There thirty years live in the Washington, DC. Lifestyle changes

1355
01:06:31.039 --> 01:06:35.880
<v Speaker 7>people getting rich from insider training should be illegal, but

1356
01:06:36.000 --> 01:06:39.840
<v Speaker 7>Susan Collins doesn't think so. Susan Collins is trying to

1357
01:06:39.920 --> 01:06:42.199
<v Speaker 7>keep it so senators can get rich play in the

1358
01:06:42.199 --> 01:06:46.559
<v Speaker 7>stock market. They're making millions of dollars. Well, we can't

1359
01:06:46.559 --> 01:06:49.840
<v Speaker 7>even afford groceries and gas. We need to tell Susan

1360
01:06:49.880 --> 01:06:52.239
<v Speaker 7>Collins to stop the congressional stock trading.

1361
01:06:53.199 --> 01:06:55.840
<v Speaker 2>Okay, what do you think of that ad? What do

1362
01:06:55.840 --> 01:06:59.079
<v Speaker 2>you think that message? And then your take on the

1363
01:06:59.119 --> 01:07:00.119
<v Speaker 2>polling in Maine.

1364
01:07:00.320 --> 01:07:03.440
<v Speaker 4>I want you to do an Oscar style music. Play

1365
01:07:03.480 --> 01:07:05.519
<v Speaker 4>me off the stage if you have to catch a flight,

1366
01:07:05.559 --> 01:07:07.719
<v Speaker 4>because I honestly could talk about all, honest, all these

1367
01:07:07.719 --> 01:07:09.519
<v Speaker 4>poles for five straight hours. I could do a podcast

1368
01:07:09.599 --> 01:07:10.360
<v Speaker 4>on every one of the poles.

1369
01:07:10.559 --> 01:07:12.760
<v Speaker 2>Think I'm good. It is about an hour to lax.

1370
01:07:12.760 --> 01:07:13.360
<v Speaker 2>I should make it.

1371
01:07:13.760 --> 01:07:15.599
<v Speaker 4>Okay, all right, just don't let me miss your flight

1372
01:07:16.039 --> 01:07:18.159
<v Speaker 4>because I will never hear the end of it from

1373
01:07:18.159 --> 01:07:22.559
<v Speaker 4>your wife. So she will know, now, yes, yes, she

1374
01:07:22.599 --> 01:07:25.159
<v Speaker 4>will know. I don't think she listens to this podcast.

1375
01:07:25.239 --> 01:07:25.559
<v Speaker 4>That's right?

1376
01:07:25.599 --> 01:07:26.719
<v Speaker 2>What am I talking about?

1377
01:07:26.920 --> 01:07:28.519
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, my wife might tell her.

1378
01:07:28.639 --> 01:07:29.559
<v Speaker 2>That's part. That is.

1379
01:07:31.079 --> 01:07:34.639
<v Speaker 4>So the logic of that ad, because it's always like

1380
01:07:34.639 --> 01:07:36.039
<v Speaker 4>you look at the as like this ad sucks or

1381
01:07:36.079 --> 01:07:37.800
<v Speaker 4>the message strategy of this ads bad. Then you remember

1382
01:07:37.800 --> 01:07:39.559
<v Speaker 4>there are very smart people with a ton of data

1383
01:07:39.599 --> 01:07:41.519
<v Speaker 4>that you and I don't have, who make these decisions.

1384
01:07:41.599 --> 01:07:44.960
<v Speaker 4>So I imagine the strategy of this ad is to say,

1385
01:07:45.039 --> 01:07:47.079
<v Speaker 4>you have a lot of people who voted for Susan

1386
01:07:47.079 --> 01:07:49.920
<v Speaker 4>Collins in twenty twenty and in previous elections, like Susan

1387
01:07:50.000 --> 01:07:53.480
<v Speaker 4>Collins overperformed. She won by nine when Biden was winning

1388
01:07:53.480 --> 01:07:55.599
<v Speaker 4>Maine by almost nine, so like a seventeen eighteen point

1389
01:07:55.599 --> 01:07:57.719
<v Speaker 4>o fourth into this is a stunning stat. In two

1390
01:07:57.719 --> 01:08:01.679
<v Speaker 4>thousand and eight, she won by twenty three points when

1391
01:08:01.719 --> 01:08:04.840
<v Speaker 4>Obama was winning Maine by seventeen. Wow, she's overperformed by

1392
01:08:04.840 --> 01:08:06.800
<v Speaker 4>forty points. So you've got a lot of people who

1393
01:08:06.840 --> 01:08:08.719
<v Speaker 4>voted for Susan Collins. So one way to do this

1394
01:08:08.760 --> 01:08:10.480
<v Speaker 4>is that you want to create a permission structure to

1395
01:08:10.519 --> 01:08:13.480
<v Speaker 4>them to say I did this thing before she's changed.

1396
01:08:13.519 --> 01:08:15.719
<v Speaker 4>So that's the argument. But if you look at the

1397
01:08:15.760 --> 01:08:18.039
<v Speaker 4>New York Times poll, and it's one poll, and it's

1398
01:08:18.039 --> 01:08:21.319
<v Speaker 4>a public poll, that seems like a bad strategy because

1399
01:08:22.279 --> 01:08:25.319
<v Speaker 4>in this poll, two thirds of voters think that Susan

1400
01:08:25.359 --> 01:08:27.800
<v Speaker 4>Collins has good character in morals. So it seems hard

1401
01:08:27.800 --> 01:08:29.159
<v Speaker 4>you're gonna convince even a lot of people. I v

1402
01:08:29.279 --> 01:08:30.479
<v Speaker 4>he a grand plant, and I think Susan Collins is

1403
01:08:30.520 --> 01:08:32.520
<v Speaker 4>a good person, and so it seems harder you're gonna

1404
01:08:32.520 --> 01:08:33.960
<v Speaker 4>covince them all of a sudden that she is corrupt.

1405
01:08:35.640 --> 01:08:38.399
<v Speaker 4>And it seems to me your better argument is to

1406
01:08:38.520 --> 01:08:40.359
<v Speaker 4>look at the fact that by a margin, if I

1407
01:08:40.359 --> 01:08:43.399
<v Speaker 4>think twelve points have been left on my head Democrats

1408
01:08:43.439 --> 01:08:45.760
<v Speaker 4>people vote. People in Maine want the Democrats control the Senate,

1409
01:08:46.640 --> 01:08:48.760
<v Speaker 4>and so there should never be an ad run that

1410
01:08:48.880 --> 01:08:51.199
<v Speaker 4>is not Susan Collins standing in the Oval office holding

1411
01:08:51.199 --> 01:08:52.039
<v Speaker 4>that maga Hat.

1412
01:08:52.239 --> 01:08:58.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's that's probably the more potent argument, right, yeah, Magahatt. Also,

1413
01:08:59.119 --> 01:09:02.960
<v Speaker 2>I think that's why, and you see Plattner was doing

1414
01:09:03.000 --> 01:09:07.800
<v Speaker 2>this in his primary night speech and elsewhere. The Brett

1415
01:09:07.840 --> 01:09:12.479
<v Speaker 2>Kavanaugh vote feels like a potent attack on her because

1416
01:09:12.479 --> 01:09:15.039
<v Speaker 2>it is a place where she was basically, you know,

1417
01:09:15.119 --> 01:09:17.039
<v Speaker 2>I'm doing what Trump wants me to do, and it's

1418
01:09:17.039 --> 01:09:19.840
<v Speaker 2>going to be fine, and then it's not fine. And

1419
01:09:19.880 --> 01:09:22.880
<v Speaker 2>that's probably an easier argument than this person that has

1420
01:09:23.279 --> 01:09:25.800
<v Speaker 2>that you think has brought home federal money to the

1421
01:09:25.840 --> 01:09:28.479
<v Speaker 2>state and has good characters. Actually a crook.

1422
01:09:28.960 --> 01:09:31.720
<v Speaker 4>In that in the in the poll fifty seven percent

1423
01:09:31.720 --> 01:09:34.680
<v Speaker 4>of independence and a majority of all manors, which I

1424
01:09:34.680 --> 01:09:37.159
<v Speaker 4>believe is the appropriate term. Think that Susan Collins will

1425
01:09:37.199 --> 01:09:40.239
<v Speaker 4>be too supportive of Donald Trump. Yeah, like that that

1426
01:09:40.359 --> 01:09:42.399
<v Speaker 4>is like there is a there is a world for

1427
01:09:42.479 --> 01:09:46.600
<v Speaker 4>the Platiner campaign that existed a year ago with none

1428
01:09:46.640 --> 01:09:48.319
<v Speaker 4>of these revelations. I think that's happened where it's like

1429
01:09:48.359 --> 01:09:50.920
<v Speaker 4>we are run. We are running a campaign to change

1430
01:09:50.960 --> 01:09:54.760
<v Speaker 4>American politics, reshape the coalitions. This pole suggested that those

1431
01:09:54.840 --> 01:09:57.560
<v Speaker 4>days are over, although there are some places where Planter

1432
01:09:57.640 --> 01:09:59.439
<v Speaker 4>is doing better than Surre Gideon did, which is why

1433
01:09:59.439 --> 01:10:01.039
<v Speaker 4>he's winning. You lost by nine points.

1434
01:10:01.079 --> 01:10:03.560
<v Speaker 2>And also why comparing this pole to the twenty twenty

1435
01:10:03.560 --> 01:10:06.560
<v Speaker 2>poles of where Sarah Gideon was at this point is

1436
01:10:06.600 --> 01:10:08.720
<v Speaker 2>not a great idea since those poles were all wrong.

1437
01:10:09.279 --> 01:10:12.359
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. That that drives me insane that you cannot even

1438
01:10:12.439 --> 01:10:14.439
<v Speaker 4>Nate come and say that pole was very very of course,

1439
01:10:14.640 --> 01:10:16.159
<v Speaker 4>which you can. The best thing you compare it to

1440
01:10:16.520 --> 01:10:19.479
<v Speaker 4>is the twenty twenty exit poles, because they actually exit

1441
01:10:19.520 --> 01:10:23.840
<v Speaker 4>polled this race in twenty twenty. And Graham platt if

1442
01:10:23.840 --> 01:10:26.479
<v Speaker 4>you look at that, Graham Platner is doing exactly the

1443
01:10:26.680 --> 01:10:32.720
<v Speaker 4>one point better than Sarah Gideon did with white working

1444
01:10:32.720 --> 01:10:34.560
<v Speaker 4>class farts, which in Maine, where ninety eight percent of

1445
01:10:34.560 --> 01:10:37.119
<v Speaker 4>the voters are white, I believe is just working class voters.

1446
01:10:37.760 --> 01:10:40.399
<v Speaker 4>So and basically the same number that Kamala Harris did

1447
01:10:40.640 --> 01:10:43.520
<v Speaker 4>in twenty twenty four with white with working class white

1448
01:10:43.560 --> 01:10:46.600
<v Speaker 4>voters according to Catalyst data, where he is doing better,

1449
01:10:46.680 --> 01:10:48.840
<v Speaker 4>which is why he is winning and Sarah Gideon was

1450
01:10:48.880 --> 01:10:50.560
<v Speaker 4>losing by a lot. Is he's doing much better with

1451
01:10:50.600 --> 01:10:53.760
<v Speaker 4>young voters, and he's doing better with men. Yeah, the

1452
01:10:53.840 --> 01:10:55.920
<v Speaker 4>challenge the reason why he's not up by more is

1453
01:10:56.199 --> 01:10:58.720
<v Speaker 4>pretty simple. Susan Collins is getting ten percent of Kamala

1454
01:10:58.760 --> 01:11:02.600
<v Speaker 4>Harris voters, although Platner, to his credit, is getting four percent.

1455
01:11:02.359 --> 01:11:05.119
<v Speaker 2>Older white women, which is exactly what Ron Brinstein has

1456
01:11:05.159 --> 01:11:07.199
<v Speaker 2>been saying and said on this pod that his biggest

1457
01:11:07.199 --> 01:11:07.760
<v Speaker 2>concern is.

1458
01:11:07.960 --> 01:11:09.920
<v Speaker 4>Like I know, we all want it, like I will

1459
01:11:09.920 --> 01:11:12.720
<v Speaker 4>stipulate that Graham Platner is being weighed down in some way,

1460
01:11:12.760 --> 01:11:14.359
<v Speaker 4>shape or form by the things that have come out

1461
01:11:14.520 --> 01:11:17.520
<v Speaker 4>like that. That is definitely true. He is underperforming. All

1462
01:11:17.560 --> 01:11:19.720
<v Speaker 4>these other Democrats arebot are overperformed the generic ballot. He's

1463
01:11:19.760 --> 01:11:22.920
<v Speaker 4>underperforming it by eight points, I think.

1464
01:11:23.079 --> 01:11:25.479
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because that's right, it's eleven, right, it's eleven, so

1465
01:11:25.479 --> 01:11:26.079
<v Speaker 2>it's nine points.

1466
01:11:26.079 --> 01:11:30.680
<v Speaker 4>He's underperformant nine points. That is significant. Now, the idea

1467
01:11:30.680 --> 01:11:33.880
<v Speaker 4>that we were going to be Susan Collins by ten

1468
01:11:33.880 --> 01:11:36.399
<v Speaker 4>points or even five points, I think is probably was

1469
01:11:36.560 --> 01:11:39.680
<v Speaker 4>fancible because there's definitely some grand plan underperformance. There is

1470
01:11:39.720 --> 01:11:42.279
<v Speaker 4>no question, I'm not disputing it. There's definitely Susan Collins

1471
01:11:42.319 --> 01:11:43.159
<v Speaker 4>overperformance too.

1472
01:11:43.439 --> 01:11:45.840
<v Speaker 2>Well. Yeah, and also because you would like his his

1473
01:11:45.920 --> 01:11:48.039
<v Speaker 2>approval is forty five to fifty, which isn't great but

1474
01:11:48.319 --> 01:11:50.920
<v Speaker 2>is not it's not horrible, right, you can win at

1475
01:11:50.960 --> 01:11:53.439
<v Speaker 2>forty five percent approval, which is just look at Donald

1476
01:11:53.479 --> 01:11:56.800
<v Speaker 2>Trump and hers is forty eight to fifty one. Hers

1477
01:11:56.840 --> 01:11:58.600
<v Speaker 2>was much Yeah, I was less surprised, Actually, I was

1478
01:11:58.600 --> 01:12:00.760
<v Speaker 2>surprised by both of them. I thought that his favorability

1479
01:12:01.239 --> 01:12:04.960
<v Speaker 2>might be worse after everything, and then I thought hers would.

1480
01:12:05.000 --> 01:12:06.960
<v Speaker 2>But I thought hers would be worse forty eight fifty one.

1481
01:12:07.079 --> 01:12:11.079
<v Speaker 2>This seems quite good if if you're an incumbent in

1482
01:12:11.159 --> 01:12:15.199
<v Speaker 2>an anti incumbent wave and you've been there forever in

1483
01:12:15.239 --> 01:12:18.039
<v Speaker 2>yours oldest Susan Collins's like that, that's surprised me.

1484
01:12:18.279 --> 01:12:21.159
<v Speaker 4>There is this misreading of the polls where like they

1485
01:12:21.199 --> 01:12:25.119
<v Speaker 4>ask people not to compare Platiner in Collins on characters

1486
01:12:25.119 --> 01:12:27.239
<v Speaker 4>and morals. They just ask them if having good characters

1487
01:12:27.319 --> 01:12:29.079
<v Speaker 4>or good morals, subscribe them. So Susan Collins says, these

1488
01:12:29.079 --> 01:12:32.880
<v Speaker 4>incredible numbers on you know, in the sixties on character

1489
01:12:32.920 --> 01:12:36.119
<v Speaker 4>and morals, and Platner seems like his numbers are much lower,

1490
01:12:36.159 --> 01:12:39.439
<v Speaker 4>but they're still in the mid forties. Yeah, so he's

1491
01:12:39.479 --> 01:12:41.560
<v Speaker 4>getting forty percent of the vote. So there's like four

1492
01:12:41.600 --> 01:12:45.079
<v Speaker 4>percent of people who are voting for who don't think

1493
01:12:45.079 --> 01:12:47.239
<v Speaker 4>Platner necessarily has great character of morals and are voting

1494
01:12:47.239 --> 01:12:51.000
<v Speaker 4>for him anyway. There are eighteen percent of people in

1495
01:12:51.039 --> 01:12:52.840
<v Speaker 4>some cases who think that Susan Collins is a good

1496
01:12:52.840 --> 01:12:54.159
<v Speaker 4>person are voting against her anyway.

1497
01:12:54.319 --> 01:12:57.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I will also say that both Susan Collins and

1498
01:12:57.840 --> 01:13:01.600
<v Speaker 2>Graham Platner are more popular in this poll then Janet Mills.

1499
01:13:01.800 --> 01:13:03.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, this is the This is the other takeaway, Like,

1500
01:13:04.079 --> 01:13:07.079
<v Speaker 4>is it possible that like a John Baldacci or a

1501
01:13:07.079 --> 01:13:09.880
<v Speaker 4>Hannah Pingree if they had run as a generic Democrat

1502
01:13:09.920 --> 01:13:11.640
<v Speaker 4>would be doing better than Grand Platiner?

1503
01:13:11.680 --> 01:13:16.840
<v Speaker 2>Probably maybe, maybe even probably maybe even probably they chose

1504
01:13:16.880 --> 01:13:17.119
<v Speaker 2>not to.

1505
01:13:17.760 --> 01:13:19.720
<v Speaker 4>They chose not to in some cases, were some of

1506
01:13:19.720 --> 01:13:21.600
<v Speaker 4>these cancer were encouraged not to by Chuck Schumer accorney

1507
01:13:21.640 --> 01:13:25.520
<v Speaker 4>some reports. But the idea that this poll has a

1508
01:13:25.520 --> 01:13:28.399
<v Speaker 4>fair amount of evidence that Janet Mills would be doing

1509
01:13:28.439 --> 01:13:31.520
<v Speaker 4>worse than Grand Platner, certainly not better than Grand Planter.

1510
01:13:31.600 --> 01:13:33.920
<v Speaker 4>And the bigger thing is not just her favorability ring

1511
01:13:34.039 --> 01:13:36.479
<v Speaker 4>that's somewhat draged down by Platiner people who don't like her.

1512
01:13:36.720 --> 01:13:40.079
<v Speaker 4>The bigger issue is that eight more than eight and

1513
01:13:40.199 --> 01:13:44.560
<v Speaker 4>ten main voters think the main economy is bad.

1514
01:13:44.760 --> 01:13:46.119
<v Speaker 2>I know those numbers, and.

1515
01:13:46.079 --> 01:13:47.920
<v Speaker 4>When the economy is a number one issue in the election,

1516
01:13:48.119 --> 01:13:50.159
<v Speaker 4>she like she actually would be someone who was being

1517
01:13:50.439 --> 01:13:53.439
<v Speaker 4>like it would be as much a referendum on her

1518
01:13:53.800 --> 01:13:55.720
<v Speaker 4>as opposed a referender on the Trump economy, and so

1519
01:13:55.760 --> 01:13:57.359
<v Speaker 4>that would be a very very tough order.

1520
01:13:57.600 --> 01:14:02.159
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. No, I think, look clear, all of the revelations

1521
01:14:02.159 --> 01:14:05.640
<v Speaker 2>about Platner have heard him, and he has a lot

1522
01:14:05.680 --> 01:14:07.560
<v Speaker 2>of work to do. I don't think anything in this

1523
01:14:07.600 --> 01:14:11.079
<v Speaker 2>poll shows that, like what's happened is fatal. I'm very

1524
01:14:11.079 --> 01:14:14.279
<v Speaker 2>concerned if other revelations come out. Yes, yes, yes, yes,

1525
01:14:14.279 --> 01:14:16.319
<v Speaker 2>for sure. I do think if these because then some

1526
01:14:16.359 --> 01:14:19.039
<v Speaker 2>people will argue, well, the Republicans haven't even spent all

1527
01:14:19.079 --> 01:14:21.439
<v Speaker 2>their money yet making sure that everyone knows about everything

1528
01:14:21.720 --> 01:14:25.319
<v Speaker 2>that's come out already. On that, I would say, like

1529
01:14:25.720 --> 01:14:28.119
<v Speaker 2>most of the voters in this poll, what eighty percent

1530
01:14:28.159 --> 01:14:30.760
<v Speaker 2>have heard about his problems and his issues, So like,

1531
01:14:30.800 --> 01:14:32.800
<v Speaker 2>I don't know that there's much more education to do

1532
01:14:33.840 --> 01:14:37.199
<v Speaker 2>on that front. I think what their hope has to

1533
01:14:37.199 --> 01:14:38.840
<v Speaker 2>be is that there's more stuff coming out on the

1534
01:14:38.840 --> 01:14:41.000
<v Speaker 2>Republican side that they can that they can use.

1535
01:14:41.399 --> 01:14:46.800
<v Speaker 4>The thing that I worry more than the character and

1536
01:14:46.960 --> 01:14:50.279
<v Speaker 4>stuff and the moral stuff is that Platinum is seen

1537
01:14:50.479 --> 01:14:54.560
<v Speaker 4>as more extreme Susan Collins. Yeah, and that's where I

1538
01:14:54.640 --> 01:14:57.600
<v Speaker 4>think that's the ads I think are more would be

1539
01:14:57.640 --> 01:15:00.119
<v Speaker 4>more concerning. Yes, Susan Collins very much of a do

1540
01:15:00.159 --> 01:15:00.960
<v Speaker 4>not think she's extreme?

1541
01:15:01.119 --> 01:15:03.119
<v Speaker 2>Right, Yeah, and it's going to be that's not pushing

1542
01:15:03.119 --> 01:15:05.239
<v Speaker 2>on an open door on that. It is. It's much

1543
01:15:05.239 --> 01:15:07.199
<v Speaker 2>easier to say, like, oh, well she's just just look

1544
01:15:07.199 --> 01:15:08.720
<v Speaker 2>at the record. She goes along with Trump, and you

1545
01:15:08.720 --> 01:15:09.760
<v Speaker 2>don't like Trump, here you go.

1546
01:15:09.920 --> 01:15:11.640
<v Speaker 4>Just vote for sus and Collins is a vote for

1547
01:15:11.840 --> 01:15:14.199
<v Speaker 4>Donald Trump. Senate VOTs and Collins, the vote to confirm

1548
01:15:14.239 --> 01:15:16.479
<v Speaker 4>another Trump Supreme Courts. The vote for versus and Collins

1549
01:15:16.600 --> 01:15:20.600
<v Speaker 4>is Trump Trump. Just it's like it's not that complicated.

1550
01:15:20.640 --> 01:15:25.119
<v Speaker 4>It should just be everything, like, do not overthink this people. Yeah,

1551
01:15:25.159 --> 01:15:26.920
<v Speaker 4>like you need a bunch of people who want the

1552
01:15:26.960 --> 01:15:29.119
<v Speaker 4>Democrats control the Senate to overgrand platform. But if you

1553
01:15:29.159 --> 01:15:30.039
<v Speaker 4>do that, you will win.

1554
01:15:30.199 --> 01:15:33.439
<v Speaker 2>Yep. All right, that's our show for today. Everyone have

1555
01:15:33.479 --> 01:15:35.439
<v Speaker 2>a happy fourth and a great holiday weekend. Tommy and

1556
01:15:35.439 --> 01:15:37.720
<v Speaker 2>Love It will be back with a new show on Tuesday,

1557
01:15:38.439 --> 01:15:40.439
<v Speaker 2>and I'll be back a week from tuesday.

1558
01:15:40.720 --> 01:15:43.000
<v Speaker 4>Bye everyone, by everyone, have a Great Fourth Pod.

1559
01:15:43.079 --> 01:15:45.199
<v Speaker 2>Dave America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is

1560
01:15:45.199 --> 01:15:48.239
<v Speaker 2>produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Ruben, McKenna, Roberts, and Faris Safari,

1561
01:15:48.319 --> 01:15:50.800
<v Speaker 2>with Ree Jerlin, Elijah Cone and Adrian Hill. Our team

1562
01:15:50.800 --> 01:15:53.680
<v Speaker 2>includes Matt to Grote, Ben Hefcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landisk,

1563
01:15:53.680 --> 01:15:56.039
<v Speaker 2>Carol pel Avive, David Toles, miak Elman, Ryan Young, and

1564
01:15:56.119 --> 01:15:58.439
<v Speaker 2>Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the Writers

1565
01:15:58.479 --> 01:15:59.479
<v Speaker 2>Guild of America East