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Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favre, I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
Speaker 2: Happy fourth. We decided to record a little early ahead
Speaker 2: of the long weekend. Long week for me. I'm heading
Speaker 2: to Maine for vacation, just see if I can get
Speaker 2: some of those Harris Collins voters back on side. You know,
Speaker 2: you pod boys saying nice things about platin Er. I'm
Speaker 2: just going to try to go to Maine and get
Speaker 2: it done myself.
Speaker 4: You know, if there's any group we have a lot
Speaker 4: of sway with, it is uh older women, Susan Colin
Speaker 4: votters in Maine.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm telling you I'm going to where I'm going.
Speaker 2: That is the place. That's right.
Speaker 4: I understand Emily has been on the ground for weeks.
Speaker 2: I know Platinus numbers. I know I'm bringing in reinforcements.
Speaker 2: What are you guys up to for the fourth? Are
Speaker 2: you sticking around?
Speaker 4: We're sticking around. We're having a bunch of people over
Speaker 4: very chill. Fourth. You're not gonna be very patriotic, but chill.
Speaker 2: Fourth, You're not going to check out the California exhibit
Speaker 2: at the Great State Fair in DC and listen to
Speaker 2: Trump's speech.
Speaker 4: We are going to listen to Trump's speech. We're going
Speaker 4: to gather everyone around the TV. We're going to watch
Speaker 4: it together as a family, as one as anyone who
Speaker 4: loves America would do.
Speaker 2: Perfect, perfect a kid. The kids will always remember how
Speaker 2: they spent their to the Americas two fifty with their
Speaker 2: half century old dad. I mean I heard that. I heard.
Speaker 2: I heard. That's what your kids are calling you.
Speaker 4: That's what That's what Kylie keeps saying to me. She's like, Dad,
Speaker 4: you're now a half a century old.
Speaker 2: That is brutal. That hit me hard, mainly because I'm
Speaker 2: only a couple of years away.
Speaker 4: But well, I will, I trust me, I will make
Speaker 4: sure that your children quite you last century in five years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could probably get Charlie going on that. Now,
Speaker 2: all right, we got some news to cover before we
Speaker 2: take off for the break. Trump making two billion dollars
Speaker 2: since taking office, the right wing freak out over birthright citizenship,
Speaker 2: more progressive primary wins in Colorado, And you and I
Speaker 2: are going to nerd the hell out over some brand
Speaker 2: new New York Times polls on all the biggest Senate races. Fun.
Speaker 2: But first, let's talk about how our president is celebrating
Speaker 2: America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday by jumping on his
Speaker 2: brand new Katari Palace in the Sky formerly known as
Speaker 2: Air Force One, which touched down in the Dakotas for
Speaker 2: the opening of Teddy Roosevelt's Presidential Library and a firework
Speaker 2: show at Mount Rushmore even though people there were worried
Speaker 2: it might start a wildfire, the vpiest thing ever. Then
Speaker 2: jets back to DC for what he's calling quote the
Speaker 2: most spectacular Trump Rally of the mall, which will reportedly
Speaker 2: include over eight hundred thousand fireworks in an attempt to
Speaker 2: set the Guinness World Record. Trump seems to be going
Speaker 2: for another record as well, he said, quote it's going
Speaker 2: to be approximately one hundred and seven degrees out, and
Speaker 2: I'm going to make a really long speech just to
Speaker 2: show that I can do anything.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that is the American spirit.
Speaker 2: That is the American spirit. This is apparently why the
Speaker 2: fireworks aren't starting until after eleven pm Eastern. Very cool,
Speaker 2: very considerate. Trump's really been on one this week. Here
Speaker 2: he is talking about and two Teddy Roosevelt at the
Speaker 2: opening of the museum this week.
Speaker 5: Theodore Roosevelt, he had great passion. The colonel they called him,
Speaker 5: was an American man. He was really a great he man.
Speaker 5: They say it was forty pounds of muss. I don't
Speaker 5: know how that how that happened. They didn't have modern
Speaker 5: day drugs. Of course, the modern day drugs don't do
Speaker 5: that either, do they. In fact, they actually take away
Speaker 5: the muscle.
Speaker 4: That's not the sun was brave.
Speaker 5: It's genetics, you know.
Speaker 4: It's like the race horse theory.
Speaker 5: They're the only father and son pair to receive our
Speaker 5: nation's highest military award for courage above and beyond. Now,
Speaker 5: as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I
Speaker 5: think I'm going to give one to myself, one to them,
Speaker 5: and we'll have a threesome.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 5: I even had a conversation with Theodore Roosevelt, and I said,
Speaker 5: what did you think about the Panama Canal? Do you
Speaker 5: consider that your greatest achievement? How do you feel about
Speaker 5: the fact that the Democrats gave the Panama Canal away
Speaker 5: to Panama for one dollars?
Speaker 4: The nation comes first, you get through.
Speaker 5: I know you know that.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 4: I appreciate those words.
Speaker 5: Those words are fantastic, and I just want to say
Speaker 5: it to an with you today we are making a
Speaker 5: little bit of a tour.
Speaker 2: There he is there, he is jacked AI, Teddy Roosevelt
Speaker 2: all muscle. He and his son big winners, and maybe
Speaker 2: Trump and his son can also be winners and have
Speaker 2: a threesome. What do you think?
Speaker 4: It just doesn't seem to me like Trump fully understands
Speaker 4: what's happening in the conversation of the AA Teddy Roosevelt.
Speaker 2: No, I don't know.
Speaker 4: Does he think he's talking to Teddy Roosevelt? Does he
Speaker 4: understand how an AI chatbot hologram works?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Should we be doing more of this? Should we do?
Speaker 4: Should Democrats have a AI Ronald Reagan at our convention
Speaker 4: to talk about how Trump is is not a Republican,
Speaker 4: and there are all kinds of things you did here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Trump was deep in the weeds on the executive
Speaker 2: order to lift the export controls on Fable and Mythos,
Speaker 2: the claude ll Ms. He was. He's deep in the
Speaker 2: weeds there because he has a lot of thoughts on
Speaker 2: those models. So I'm sure he.
Speaker 4: Speaking of a I did you did you see this
Speaker 4: morning that Open AI offered the US government a five
Speaker 4: percent stake in the company?
Speaker 2: Yes, you know, that's also a an idea on the left,
Speaker 2: by the way, that some have uh proposed. I believe
Speaker 2: roe Conna has proposed that it is now the challenges
Speaker 2: and Bernie has proposed that too. The idea is the
Speaker 2: government gets a stake of it, and then the government
Speaker 2: distributes like on the upside of these AI companies, that
Speaker 2: the government distributes that to people as like a like
Speaker 2: like an oil royalty for for our age. Of course,
Speaker 2: the challenge is what happens when Donald Trump is in
Speaker 2: charge or another Donald Trump is in charge? Right, Like
Speaker 2: you'd want to you'd want to have that kind of
Speaker 2: power in the hands of a president who's into redistribution.
Speaker 4: Well, you'd have to write, you'd have to write a
Speaker 4: law that like the like the oil royalties in Alaska.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's that's that's all this neither here nor there.
Speaker 2: Trump's talking to AI Teddy Roosevelt talking about threesomes with
Speaker 2: his kids. Uh do you think do you think he
Speaker 2: caught that? Do you think afterwards someone was like, hey,
Speaker 2: people are laughing because you did talk. Because the word
Speaker 2: threesome usually doesn't just mean you and your son's having medals.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I suspect that Trump, as someone who's
Speaker 4: lived the life he's lived, is very familiar with threesomes.
Speaker 2: Do you think he's that generous?
Speaker 4: Maybe? Maybe? I mean, I don't know. I I think
Speaker 4: that I think that Trump is a sign of a
Speaker 4: sign of selfishness, is my guess. Also, we're poor, Baron,
Speaker 4: I did make the familial threesome.
Speaker 2: That kid caught a lucky break, I guess. Larger question
Speaker 2: for you, how do you think all these Trump organized
Speaker 2: America to fifty events are landing with people who aren't
Speaker 2: MAGA fans or whiny America hating libs like us. You
Speaker 2: think most people are seeing all this?
Speaker 4: I kind of presume they're not seeing it. It's just
Speaker 4: it's not really breaking through in any way, shape or form.
Speaker 4: None of it's exciting, none of it's interesting. People are
Speaker 4: pretty busy. They have a million options for how this men.
Speaker 4: They're limited attention to the extent they hear anything Trump is.
Speaker 4: Trump has made it all political, and so there's a
Speaker 4: whole group of people like people like us will either
Speaker 4: make fun of it or or ignore it, and then
Speaker 4: the people who don't really care about politics or don't
Speaker 4: actively avoid politics will immediately turn away from it. Like
Speaker 4: you could see a world potentially where a different president
Speaker 4: does something different that is more in the theoretical spirit
Speaker 4: of America, that is more bipartisan. You know, you could
Speaker 4: see a world where a democratic president or even a
Speaker 4: different Republican president who comes from a different Republican party,
Speaker 4: in an alternative universe, has on stage the Obamas, the Bidens,
Speaker 4: the Clintons, the Bushes, and we're you know, basically you
Speaker 4: have a library opening. But but it you know, I
Speaker 4: just I went back and looked a lot of like
Speaker 4: what happened in nineteen seventy six, and so much of
Speaker 4: it a it happened in an election year, which is notable,
Speaker 4: but also just so much of the attention to it
Speaker 4: also had a lot to do with the fact that
Speaker 4: we lived in a world where there were three TV
Speaker 4: station channels and you had to watch it, and so
Speaker 4: you couldn't it just it was like beamed into the
Speaker 4: brainz and Mirrikan people people do they kind of involved.
Speaker 4: Like I saw the whole thing about how people decorated
Speaker 4: all their painted all the fire hydrants red, white and blue.
Speaker 4: Some of them turned them to like very funny like
Speaker 4: a link in fire hydrants and things like that. But
Speaker 4: just in this day and age, it's like it's hard
Speaker 4: to get people attention like that. And Trump is not
Speaker 4: trying to actually do that. He's trying to make it
Speaker 4: about himself and that was doomed to fail.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the attention of the country is pretty much World
Speaker 2: Cup is America.
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, that's like the fiftieth celebration was last night
Speaker 4: in the World Cup game where everyone came together and
Speaker 4: one and now wants to throw tea in the pool
Speaker 4: of the referee who gave us the red card. Yes,
Speaker 4: it's me the appropriate colonial response.
Speaker 2: Find this pool just dump it with dump it dumps
Speaker 2: some teina. Yeah. No, I've been really into some of
Speaker 2: like the you know, opinion pieces on this. I was
Speaker 2: like watching that Netflix has a good doc American Experiment
Speaker 2: that I.
Speaker 4: Was even watching that.
Speaker 2: I was watching that I'm a sucker for like revolutionary
Speaker 2: war history. And but then I was and I was
Speaker 2: like thinking about it a lot, and I thought I
Speaker 2: was maybe going to write something about it. I'm like, really,
Speaker 2: this is just a small circle of people talking to
Speaker 2: each other who already talk to each other on sub
Speaker 2: stack in other places the way.
Speaker 4: Don't do not knock that, do not knock a small
Speaker 4: circle people talk each.
Speaker 2: Other readers and New York Times readers and podcasts. I'm like,
Speaker 2: it is, you know, the people trying to get most
Speaker 2: of the country to pay attention to the two hundred
Speaker 2: fifty anniversary seems like a tall order when Donald Trump
Speaker 2: is president and everything else is going on.
Speaker 4: I just want to caution you that if your new
Speaker 4: logic is it's only going to reach a small group
Speaker 4: of people talk to each other, you're going to start
Speaker 4: doing all things.
Speaker 2: Well, I would talk to people about other other issues, okay, parents,
Speaker 2: Like what am I trying to convince people of that?
Speaker 2: It's that this is what America is really about? Yeah,
Speaker 2: Like that's We're all on board, all right. Few other
Speaker 2: Trump items to discuss, lest you think he's trying to
Speaker 2: make this anniversary all about himself. Trump is reportedly considering
Speaker 2: an idea described as two hundred and fifty pardons for
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty years. That's how a person close
Speaker 2: to the White House described it to The Atlantic, in
Speaker 2: an effort to quote reinforce an image he has long
Speaker 2: sought to cultivate, Trump the merciful. Yeah, that's he's really
Speaker 2: been working hard on that. I don't know how much
Speaker 2: progress he's made. The piece goes on to say, quote,
Speaker 2: the prospect of a mass pardon has set off an
Speaker 2: international frenzy of lobbying and deal making in which even
Speaker 2: slight proximity to the president can be monetized. No shit.
Speaker 2: And speaking of monetizing the presidency, Trump's twenty twenty five
Speaker 2: financial disclosure just came out and shows that the President
Speaker 2: of the United States raked in at least two point
Speaker 2: two billion dollars last year while in office, with at
Speaker 2: least one point four billion of that coming from his
Speaker 2: family's cryptocurrency business slash Ponzi scheme. What better way for
Speaker 2: a president to celebrate America's two hundred and fiftieth than
Speaker 2: by using his office to make two billion dollars off
Speaker 2: a Ponzi scheme and then also pardon all of his
Speaker 2: rich criminal friends. I must have missed the announcement from
Speaker 2: the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings
Speaker 2: over this. Did you catch it?
Speaker 4: No, I must have missed it too. I was so
Speaker 4: busy taking in the sights of the Great American State
Speaker 4: Fair that I might have missed this. The two fifty
Speaker 4: parties thing is so funny because there's a line in
Speaker 4: the story which says, I'm going to read it here.
Speaker 4: One advisor said there had been polling that suggested a
Speaker 4: mass pardon could benefit the president.
Speaker 2: I caught that. I caught that. Where do you think do.
Speaker 4: You think that's yes? You know who commissioned that poll?
Speaker 4: A bunch of criminals or a bunch of people making
Speaker 4: money off the criminals? Like that's who commissioned that bole.
Speaker 4: There is no poll that suggests a mass pardon of
Speaker 4: frankly anyone. Like pardons can be good commuting people's sentences
Speaker 4: who were have unfair drug sentences. All there's good use
Speaker 4: of the parton power. Even that is never popular. A
Speaker 4: mass pardon is not popular. It's an insane thing. It's
Speaker 4: something that someone told Trump in order to get him
Speaker 4: to pardon people that that has hired this advisor to do.
Speaker 2: I was honestly trying to think of how the question
Speaker 2: would be worded to get a good result, and it
Speaker 2: would be like, do you think the president should reduce
Speaker 2: the sentences of people who've been unfairly imprisoned Yes, by
Speaker 2: a weaponized justice, wrongly convicted?
Speaker 4: Yes? If the are you are? Would you reproven disapproved
Speaker 4: of the president releasing people innocent people from prison like that?
Speaker 2: That is probably Yeah. That probably showed that he was
Speaker 2: going to give him a little boost.
Speaker 4: Now on the corruption thing, it is, I mean, the
Speaker 4: amount of money Trump's made is truly unbelievable. And the
Speaker 4: thing that makes it so much worse than it could
Speaker 4: possibly be, and it's hard to imagine it could be
Speaker 4: worse than that is it's not like Trump just picked
Speaker 4: a bunch of smart stocks or even got inside information
Speaker 4: on inside access to some IPO that took off, or
Speaker 4: even did some sweetheart real estate deals.
Speaker 2: Which he was trying to say yesterday when asked about it,
Speaker 2: he was like, well, everyone profiting because the S and
Speaker 2: P is up. It's like, no, that's not what's happening.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, that's not exactly what happened there. And most
Speaker 4: of his money is not And although he does do
Speaker 4: a lot of day trading, what is most of the
Speaker 4: money here is from the crypto money. And that is
Speaker 4: a very specific Ponzi scheme run against his most loyal supporters.
Speaker 4: He took money, He weaponized their adoration for him and
Speaker 4: their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins,
Speaker 4: essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them, and sold
Speaker 4: a chunk of the company to to an amoradi fund,
Speaker 4: perhaps in exchange for selling America's most valuable technology to
Speaker 4: the amortis.
Speaker 2: The story about this in the Times. As you said, yeah,
Speaker 2: the cryptocurrency coin created by World Liberty Financial has sunk
Speaker 2: to less than six cents, a more than eighty percent
Speaker 2: drop from its peak, generating enormous losses for investors who
Speaker 2: bought it at a higher price.
Speaker 4: And Trump made money on all It's not just the
Speaker 4: value of the he also was making money off the
Speaker 4: sale of all the coins as well.
Speaker 2: Yep, just a total grift. I mean, what do you
Speaker 2: think about this, like it's I mentioned the Republican Congress
Speaker 2: because you know, we're gonna talk about this in a
Speaker 2: bit with the polls. But it's like, yeah, people think
Speaker 2: that Trump is corrupt. Message delivered, but we're not trying
Speaker 2: to beat Trump in the midterms. We are trying to
Speaker 2: beat the Republican Congress. And these people could do something
Speaker 2: about it. They could be like, hey, the president is
Speaker 2: profiting off a Ponzi scheme while in office. There's all
Speaker 2: this kinds of corrupt dealings going on, There's all kinds
Speaker 2: of foreign entanglements as you mentioned, and potentially foreign corruption,
Speaker 2: foreign influence that he's working on nothing.
Speaker 4: I mean, Tommy and I talked about this a little
Speaker 4: bit only friends yesterday, but I think the corruptions of
Speaker 4: his area, it's already priced into the baseline here in
Speaker 4: two ways. One, people think Trump always believe Trump was
Speaker 4: corrupt in some way, ty orform, and they also think
Speaker 4: most politicians are corup. Trump just dips his peek a
Speaker 4: little deeper than everyone else, but he he is suffering
Speaker 4: from the full weight of all of these things. I mean,
Speaker 4: he's a prover rings at thirty seven percent, Like how
Speaker 4: much lower do we expect it to go And is
Speaker 4: it just because of the coruption. No. Is there one
Speaker 4: more piece of coruption that's going to come out that's
Speaker 4: going to drive him the thirty two No. But the
Speaker 4: way I think about all these things is they're all
Speaker 4: affordability related. This is just all the shit he's doing
Speaker 4: that's not helping you, and that stuff hit different when
Speaker 4: prices are low, and it's much worse for Trump when
Speaker 4: prices are high. And so people do care, maybe not
Speaker 4: as much as we want them to care, but it
Speaker 4: does hurt him politically, It absolutely does, and that's we're
Speaker 4: already seeing that in the polls.
Speaker 2: No. My point is that we got to get some
Speaker 2: of that stink on the Republican Congress.
Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean there, yes, yes, and you see that.
Speaker 2: In because you're right, But no, I completely agree with
Speaker 2: everything you so like, we can't like we did it.
Speaker 2: People know that he's a bad president. You look pull
Speaker 2: after poll after poll after poll, like he is losing
Speaker 2: that argument, but he is also a lame duck president
Speaker 2: who is not on the ballot. No.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and there's a question about whether that is putting
Speaker 4: the stink. We'll talk about this in the next section.
Speaker 4: Whether that's putting the stink on the Republicans or taking
Speaker 4: the stink off the Democrats is the best route to
Speaker 4: doing that right, Plenty of or more likely combination of.
Speaker 2: The two, plenty of stink to go around. Should say
Speaker 2: that hiring also slowed to fifty seven thousand jobs added
Speaker 2: last month. The jobs numbers came out way below expectations,
Speaker 2: and the last two months that they were celebrating, of course,
Speaker 2: have been revised down. So not a great economy unless
Speaker 2: you're Donald Trump and you have a crypto scheme that
Speaker 2: you're profiting off of. Even the Wall Street Journal, by
Speaker 2: the way, you see there's a Wall Street Journal editorial, No,
Speaker 2: how did I miss this about Donald read about Donald
Speaker 2: Trump's corruption, which is notable because I know you and
Speaker 2: Tim we talked about. The New York Post did an
Speaker 2: editorial just criticizing Trump's corruption, and now Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 2: so all the Murdoch properties except for Fox. They even said,
Speaker 2: Yowser's Yawser's the wash. The Wall Street Journal said the
Speaker 2: main difference between Hunter Biden's foreign dealings and the Trump
Speaker 2: projects so that the Trumps are brazenly open about theirs,
Speaker 2: but there will be political costs for Republicans. If Democrats
Speaker 2: take back the House or Senate, they will have a
Speaker 2: field day probing the Trump family deals. Charges of GOP
Speaker 2: corruption will resound through twenty twenty eight. This will feed
Speaker 2: the left's class warfare and narrative that billionaire oligarchs are
Speaker 2: getting rich off government. Will it feed that narrative? I
Speaker 2: wonder why? Probably because it's a true narrative, Yes.
Speaker 4: Right, yes, Would it tell people what's happening? Yes, that's
Speaker 4: all what.
Speaker 2: Happened anyway, that's from your liberal friends at the Wall
Speaker 2: Street Journal.
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Speaker 2: We should also discuss the absolute freakout in magaworld over
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court's decision to affirm the right to citizenship
Speaker 2: that comes with being born in the United States as
Speaker 2: granted by the fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution after slavery
Speaker 2: was abolished more than one hundred and fifty years ago.
Speaker 2: The court struck down Trump's effort to end birthright citizenship
Speaker 2: via executive order, but the President's reaction to this was
Speaker 2: pretty mild compared to Trump allies like The Daily Wires
Speaker 2: Matt Walsh, who said that America is committing suicide and
Speaker 2: the fact that his children are having their birthright destroyed.
Speaker 2: Quote fills me with rage so deep I can't describe it.
Speaker 2: Sean Davis, co founder of The Federalist, tweeted out some
Speaker 2: potential remedies that include denying entry to the US to
Speaker 2: all female foreigners, all pregnant women, and requiring sterilization of
Speaker 2: all foreign visitors prior to entry. And you know who
Speaker 2: says he's looking into these ideas, Steven Miller, who has
Speaker 2: been absolutely hysterical about this. He's saying talking about national suicide,
Speaker 2: national self obliteration, and quote, a deep knife wound in
Speaker 2: the heart of the American Republic. All right, what do
Speaker 2: you make of the reaction and specifically, what do you
Speaker 2: make of Steven Miller and other White House officials considering
Speaker 2: this crackdown on pregnant women entering the country. Can't believe
Speaker 2: I had to say those words, and.
Speaker 4: These people are just disgusting, opportunistic, delusional goals. Like it's
Speaker 4: so it is, it's just so stupid, and it is
Speaker 4: so like just think of think about this right in
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen Republican like there is some political in there.
Speaker 4: I try to, like sometimes try to put myself in
Speaker 4: their heads, pretend that they are quasi rational political actors,
Speaker 4: Like I think Stephen Miller is doing this from a
Speaker 4: just purely sincere, deeply held racial animis. I think other
Speaker 4: people in the MAGA world are looking at this. While
Speaker 4: they certainly share some of that racial animis, they are
Speaker 4: also looking this politically and in their mind.
Speaker 2: I think I think Sean Davis and Matt walsher absolutely genuine.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. But you know,
Speaker 4: I think they look at this and say, we're getting
Speaker 4: killed on all the on affordability, all these other issues.
Speaker 4: What is the one issue where Trump is not twenty
Speaker 4: thousand leagues underwater, and that is border security? And so
Speaker 4: can we move the conversation back to border security? Now?
Speaker 4: The flaw in this plan is that in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 4: when Republicans were getting ready to lose the mid terms,
Speaker 4: they concocted a fake story about a caravan of MS
Speaker 4: thirteen members marching to America, and the twenty twenty sixth
Speaker 4: version of that is a bunch of pregnant with tourists.
Speaker 2: It's just so fucking it's it's it's the grossest thing.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just so stupid. It's just so it's also
Speaker 4: so stupid, like dude, you really It means it's so
Speaker 4: painfully dumb and engross. It's all dumb and gross, which
Speaker 4: I guess is kind of the theme of the entire
Speaker 4: area in which we're living.
Speaker 2: But the Center for Immigration Studies, which is the far
Speaker 2: right immigration organization, they because they're their whole argument here.
Speaker 2: Trump's argument Miller's argument is this like birth tourism, right,
Speaker 2: that people are coming here illegally and then they're having
Speaker 2: kids so they can be American citizens, and then you know,
Speaker 2: I guess then the whole country falls apart. But even
Speaker 2: they say that this is they put birth tourism at
Speaker 2: roughly twenty thousand cases a year. There were they were
Speaker 2: about three point sixty one million births in the United
Speaker 2: States every year, so that is well under one percent.
Speaker 2: And that number, the twenty thousand is contested by just
Speaker 2: about everyone. Because this is a right wing organization. Some
Speaker 2: people think it's far far less, like a couple thousand.
Speaker 2: But even if you go by their arguments, it is
Speaker 2: like it is just again much like their voter fraud ship,
Speaker 2: it completely made up argument.
Speaker 4: It is the danger like it seems absurd to us.
Speaker 4: The danger of it is you take the most egregious,
Speaker 4: outlandish rarest if possibly non existent, example, and you use
Speaker 4: it to take down an entire system like this is
Speaker 4: Ronald Reagan and the welfare queens all over again, where
Speaker 4: this is a way to try to undo birthright citizenship, which,
Speaker 4: as you and I talked about on YouTube after the hearing,
Speaker 4: you know you have a potential Supreme Court majority or
Speaker 4: near majority at this point, who would suggest that that
Speaker 4: can be done statutorily, And so you kind of understand,
Speaker 4: like I understand the short term political argument there. The
Speaker 4: longer term thing is to try to make people think
Speaker 4: this is something that's really happening when it's not actually happening.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And then the flip side of that from picking
Speaker 2: the most egregious example is basically what John Roberts argued
Speaker 2: about the descent in this case, which was the descent
Speaker 2: was like, well, the word domicide should mean where the
Speaker 2: parents have allegiance to and if the parents were born
Speaker 2: in some other country and have allegiance to that country
Speaker 2: and owe something to that country, then you know, then
Speaker 2: we shouldn't then the child shouldn't be a US citizen.
Speaker 2: And Roberts was like, okay, well what about foreign nationals
Speaker 2: who are legal permanent residents in this country? And if
Speaker 2: you're a foreign national, if you have dual citizenship, or
Speaker 2: even if you just have a you know, you're a
Speaker 2: legal permanent resident in this country and you're still a
Speaker 2: citizen of another country, you do have some allegiance to
Speaker 2: that other country, and you are still to pay some
Speaker 2: taxes to that other country. And so now we're saying
Speaker 2: that all foreign born people in this country who have
Speaker 2: children here, those children aren't American citizens. And then at
Speaker 2: that point, who gets to decide who's a citizen? Trump?
Speaker 2: Trump gets, Trump and Steven Miller get to decide who's
Speaker 2: a citizen. They get that power. The government gets to
Speaker 2: decide that is. And I think that is the argument
Speaker 2: that most people in this country would not get behind,
Speaker 2: that your citizenship is determined not by your birth, not
Speaker 2: by where your parents are from, but by Donald Trump
Speaker 2: and Stephen Miller.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about what's happening with the people
Speaker 2: who are trying to bounce these jokers out of office.
Speaker 2: On Tuesday, Colorado held its primaries, and once again, progressive
Speaker 2: candidates won the day. In the first district, which is
Speaker 2: basically the heart of Metro Denver, twenty nine year old
Speaker 2: immigrant turned lawyer turned insurgent DSA candidate Milak Kiros beat
Speaker 2: Diana to get a fifteen term incumbent by about ten points.
Speaker 2: Kiros is a PhD student who lost her job at
Speaker 2: a prominent law firm in twenty twenty three after refusing
Speaker 2: to take down an open letter she wrote about what
Speaker 2: she saw as a crackdown on criticism of Israel. How
Speaker 2: did she manage to beat an entrenched incumbent like Diana
Speaker 2: to get in part because of exchanges like this from
Speaker 2: a debate in early June.
Speaker 6: And when we have that opportunity again, we have to
Speaker 6: pass medicure for all cancer, all medical and break up
Speaker 6: big medicine to try that competition in the healthcare industry.
Speaker 6: If we do that, then whatever SECA fan fills the
Speaker 6: shoes of Donald Trump in the twenty thirty two presidential election,
Speaker 6: who tries to blame on our most vulnerable communities for
Speaker 6: riek system, it's will bring hollow to the voters. But
Speaker 6: as a party, we can point to what we accomplished
Speaker 6: in achieving healthcare for all and see, this is what
Speaker 6: Democrats achieved for working people.
Speaker 2: This is how we delivered pretty good, very good. It's
Speaker 2: not just policy where Curas has managed to draw a
Speaker 2: sharp distinction. Here's a question you got in a local
Speaker 2: news interview a week ago about an ad she reposted
Speaker 2: from a super pack supporting her.
Speaker 4: I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats
Speaker 4: suck shit.
Speaker 7: Is that relief as well.
Speaker 2: Okay, just hearing him, just hearing the interviewers say that
Speaker 2: was enjoyable. Because of the makeup of the district, Curius
Speaker 2: is almost certainly to win the general election, and she
Speaker 2: has said she won't vote for Hiking Jeffries for speaker
Speaker 2: if he takes corporate pack money. In the primary for
Speaker 2: the state's eighth district, northeast of Denver, progressive state Representative
Speaker 2: Manny Rutnel defeated a more moderate Democrat by twenty eight points.
Speaker 2: He will take on vulnerable Republican Gabe Evans, one of
Speaker 2: the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, a big frontline race.
Speaker 2: And in the governor's race, the progressive but not DSA
Speaker 2: state Attorney General Phil Wiser beat out Senator Michael Bennett
Speaker 2: by about twelve points. Know you and Tommy talked about
Speaker 2: this on Padsave America Only Friends, But what were your
Speaker 2: thoughts on Colorado and where it fits in with the
Speaker 2: New York results and what's to come.
Speaker 4: So I think the Kiros race against to get fits
Speaker 4: very squarely in the narrative coming out of New York.
Speaker 4: We have a progressive insurgent candidate running against a long
Speaker 4: entrenched Democratic establishment figure. And like in New York, the
Speaker 4: Democrat is not a moderate per se, but I mean
Speaker 4: to gets a member of the Congression Progressive Caucus now
Speaker 4: more moderate than Kiros and maybe more moderate than some
Speaker 4: of the voters of this district that Kamala Harris won
Speaker 4: by fifty six points. And so this district, I know,
Speaker 4: it's in Colorado, and so we think of it differently.
Speaker 4: It is just about as democratic as the three in
Speaker 4: New York has won by more than fifty points in
Speaker 4: all of them, and it, you know, it speaks to
Speaker 4: the very real anger that exists within the party towards
Speaker 4: the democratic establishment, the status quo, and the system. And
Speaker 4: we talked about what we talked units in the New
Speaker 4: York We talked about the New York races just last week,
Speaker 4: I think, talked about the ways in which those anger
Speaker 4: manifests itself. And Kiros ran a great race, she won
Speaker 4: by double digits, and so that fits in that narrative.
Speaker 4: The other two races don't fit exactly in that narrative.
Speaker 4: What is true of the Wiser Bennett race, Like I
Speaker 4: guess it is fair to say that Wiser is a progressive,
Speaker 4: but Bennett, but he's not that much more notably progressive
Speaker 4: than Bennett. And he is not an insurgent. He is
Speaker 4: the two term attorney general of the state who worked
Speaker 4: for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama where he what he
Speaker 4: did do was he did weaponize that anger against the
Speaker 4: establishment in one of the elements of it, which is
Speaker 4: Bennett's been in Washington for a couple decades now, or
Speaker 4: almost two decades. He was appointed in two thousand and nine,
Speaker 4: I believe to replace Kensal's ar and but he attacked
Speaker 4: him for not fighting hard enough against Trump, being part
Speaker 4: of establishment that let Trump win, and then ran on
Speaker 4: all the things that Wiser had done as a very
Speaker 4: good attorney general fighting back against Trump with lawsuits and
Speaker 4: other sorts of things, and so, but it's not he's
Speaker 4: not remember the DSA. It's different. He also was someone
Speaker 4: with he as good of name id and probably more
Speaker 4: like recent depth of knowledge relationship with the voters than
Speaker 4: Bennett because he's the attorney He's a high profile attorney
Speaker 4: general in the state, and Bennett's been in Washington. And
Speaker 4: then the Routinel Shannon Burn race is interesting and kind
Speaker 4: of speaks to how progressive candidates I think will win
Speaker 4: in these frontline districts. If the running is Rutnell did
Speaker 4: not run to.
Speaker 2: The left, No, ran to this ran to the center.
Speaker 4: He ran to the center. He even he even denounced
Speaker 4: his own form of veganism and he but.
Speaker 2: He did attack unlike Taller Rico. He really he really
Speaker 2: was a vegan.
Speaker 4: Yes, he actually was a vegan. He was a peda
Speaker 4: activist in one of the top farm districts in the
Speaker 4: country and has walked away from that.
Speaker 2: And he sort of he sort of walked away from
Speaker 2: Medicare for all also.
Speaker 4: Yes, and being a DSA member. Where but where he
Speaker 4: went after, which is I think also interesting notic was
Speaker 4: where when he went after Bird was on ICE because
Speaker 4: Bird had a vote or two in the state legilator
Speaker 4: that was suggested.
Speaker 2: I think it was like Cooperate. It was like state
Speaker 2: wise cooperations.
Speaker 4: Yes, it wasn't like she was endorsing ICE or wearing
Speaker 4: like ICE T shirts, but that was a major issue
Speaker 4: in the race. And so these are all different. They
Speaker 4: do speak to the fact that you really don't want
Speaker 4: to be particular in the Wiser and Heros race, You
Speaker 4: really don't want to be a longtime democratic establishment figure
Speaker 4: like that. Yeah, you're a vulnerable in a way, but
Speaker 4: you've never been.
Speaker 2: Before, and that the voter anger at the establishment, and
Speaker 2: specifically the fact that the establishment has not done enough
Speaker 2: to improve the lives of working people in this country
Speaker 2: or enough to beat back Donald Trump and Republicans is
Speaker 2: probably at least what the primaries are telling us, probably
Speaker 2: even more powerful than anger at Democrats for being too
Speaker 2: centrist or too moderate. Yes, yes, I think the and
Speaker 2: it it's race dependent, of course, but clearly in the
Speaker 2: in the Bennett race, in the Routinel race, in some
Speaker 2: of the other ones we're seeing like that is a factor,
Speaker 2: that is a factor that is uniting all of this,
Speaker 2: all of this anti establishment.
Speaker 4: Further, the ideological thing is hard to parse because it's
Speaker 4: talked about one way by the pundit's analyzing the race,
Speaker 4: and I think it's viewed by voters in a different way. Yeah, like,
Speaker 4: and I think a big issue in a lot of
Speaker 4: these races is obviously Israel and Gaza. Yes, and it's
Speaker 4: played itself in different ways. It was it was obviously
Speaker 4: a central part of Kiros's race and her political identity
Speaker 4: and her right entry into politics was because of her
Speaker 4: views on Israel and gaza, and it does represent the
Speaker 4: issue where there's the greatest distance between the party establishment
Speaker 4: and the voter, and particularly the Democratic primary voter and
Speaker 4: the most active Democratic primary voters. And I think that
Speaker 4: issue it's ideological. What's also a litmus test of sorts
Speaker 4: in the sense that it says if you were unwilling to,
Speaker 4: in the minds of voters, call what is what you
Speaker 4: what everyone is seeing with their eyes genocide or to
Speaker 4: react to it in the right way, it says something
Speaker 4: about who you are and who you stand for, and
Speaker 4: so like is it I think it's too easy to
Speaker 4: say that. It's like just people want to say it's
Speaker 4: all about being more progressive than being not progressive, and
Speaker 4: it's more complicated in that. It's also I think more
Speaker 4: complicated than being just like who's a fighter? Like you
Speaker 4: definite wouldn't want to be a fighter, Like not being
Speaker 4: a fighter is bad, Like like there are on a
Speaker 4: lot of there are on a lot of people waving
Speaker 4: the white flag who are winning these primaries or in
Speaker 4: elections in general. But it it just I always find
Speaker 4: myself struggling with this because it's the conversation is more
Speaker 4: complicated and dynamic than the terms in which we generally
Speaker 4: try to have the talk about it and sort of
Speaker 4: how votes of it.
Speaker 2: Because when people say moderate, liberal, progressive, there's like an
Speaker 2: umbrella over all the issues, and in reality it's issue
Speaker 2: by issue for different voters and in different parts of
Speaker 2: the country and in different races, right because and.
Speaker 4: These aren't moderates who are losing. But the exception of
Speaker 4: Goldman against Lander and Golden, particularly the issue where Golden
Speaker 4: was most moderate was Israel. But Espiot not a moderate
Speaker 4: to get not a.
Speaker 2: Moderate, No, but been there a while.
Speaker 4: Yes, there's a generational element to this.
Speaker 2: Too, coming attractions. Did you see AOC endorsed abdul Elsad
Speaker 2: in Michigan? So there's the Michigan primary where obviously the
Speaker 2: Senate race is the Marquis race. I believe there's also
Speaker 2: like a house race there as well. Shreithanadar is a
Speaker 2: Democratic congressman there who's facing a primary challenge. There's a
Speaker 2: few more. Do you have any do you know.
Speaker 4: The Yeah, there's Wie Wasserman Schultz, Yeah, I guess, Elijah
Speaker 4: Manley and apparently Luther Campbell formerly of Two Life Crow,
Speaker 4: which I did not realize until heard the new York
Speaker 4: Times Real story of it. Yes, then she is not.
Speaker 4: She is running in a district that's not hers because
Speaker 4: it was redrawn. So it's a little bit more like
Speaker 4: the Al Green and Julie Johnson losses earlier this cycle.
Speaker 2: Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts, Steven.
Speaker 4: Lynch in Massachusetts, and there for Ed Markey in Massachusetts,
Speaker 4: John Larson in Connecticut, Wesley Bell who beat Corey Bush
Speaker 4: two years ago. This is not a generational one. This
Speaker 4: is more of a modern progressive one. But Corey Bush
Speaker 4: is now and he won in large part because of
Speaker 4: apex spending in that race. He was their candidate, and
Speaker 4: so Corey Bush is now running for her seat again.
Speaker 4: That's one in Missouri, which comes up in August. I believe.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so wet we got.
Speaker 4: There is plenty of time for panic and overly hot
Speaker 4: takes and on nuanced takes about all of these things
Speaker 4: going forward.
Speaker 2: Can't wait.
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Speaker 2: Did you see Steve Bannon's comments in Playbook This Morning?
Speaker 4: I AI Steve Bannon would have said that, like I
Speaker 4: could have told you, I feel that's going to say.
Speaker 2: He's basically said that Republicans ignore or mock the election
Speaker 2: of DSA candidates and progressive candidates at their peril. He
Speaker 2: said quote they campaign his anti establishment very smartly. They're
Speaker 2: not really even campaigning on Trump. He gets a mention,
Speaker 2: but they're very much like the Tea Party, like old Breitbart,
Speaker 2: they're going against the democratic establishment. The reason we have
Speaker 2: a problems is not Trump, it's the people that should
Speaker 2: be stopping Trump are actually co opted by him. It's
Speaker 2: very sophisticated and it clearly resonates. What do you think
Speaker 2: about that?
Speaker 4: I think, I mean it's like an overly facile self servying.
Speaker 4: I mean, basically what he's saying is like, also, are
Speaker 4: these people are They're doing exactly what I did ten
Speaker 4: years ago, fifteen years ago.
Speaker 2: And he's like a populist, you know.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean sort of yeah.
Speaker 2: Well no, I think I think with Bannon he's a populist,
Speaker 2: and that in all the wrong ways and all the
Speaker 2: like xenophobic, h terrible ways, but he's also a genuine
Speaker 2: populist on economic stuff that he has like always pushed
Speaker 2: to actually do populist economic shit, and then Trump has
Speaker 2: never done it in two tens.
Speaker 4: I think he genuinely believes that populism is the best politics,
Speaker 4: yes for the Republican Party, that I agree with, which
Speaker 4: is why he has been so skeptical of big tech.
Speaker 4: I mean, he takes a lot of money from billionaires
Speaker 4: for a populist, but his argument was for a populist
Speaker 4: for MAGA to be a populist working class movement, and
Speaker 4: he sees Democrats trying to do something similar and being
Speaker 4: willing to take on their own in order to do it.
Speaker 4: So I think it's notable.
Speaker 2: On the subject of DSA momentum, I don't know if
Speaker 2: you saw. Axios had a report on Wednesday that Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris has quietly been reaching out to Zora on Mamdani,
Speaker 2: AOC and the leaders of the Uncommitted Movement, indicating that
Speaker 2: she's making plans potentially for a twenty twenty eight run
Speaker 2: and perhaps another ideological reinvention. What did you think about that?
Speaker 4: So we are getting more and more evidence that Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris is seriously thinking about running. If you'd ask me
Speaker 4: six months ago, I would have bet a fair amount
Speaker 4: of money that she was not going to run. But
Speaker 4: she keeps doing things that suggest she's at least seriously
Speaker 4: thinking about it. You and I have heard lots of
Speaker 4: rumors of her talking to all kinds of different people
Speaker 4: in the party. I think if she is running and
Speaker 4: is being smart about it. There is no path for
Speaker 4: her to the nomination that does not involve a massive
Speaker 4: pivot away from Biden's Israel and gos of policy, and
Speaker 4: so having some conversations about how you would do that
Speaker 4: and how that would be received by people in the community,
Speaker 4: particularly when she clearly did not engage with that community
Speaker 4: enough to fully understand the power of the issue in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four, is what you would be doing? Will
Speaker 4: that work? Will she be able to pull it off?
Speaker 2: That was going to be my next question, how much
Speaker 2: how much credibility do you think she gets?
Speaker 4: I think it would depend on how she delivers it
Speaker 4: and how she can if she were to do it.
Speaker 4: She cannot be She cannot head your words. She cannot
Speaker 4: worry about Joe Biden's reaction to her words. You cannot
Speaker 4: worry about whether she's going to anger people in the
Speaker 4: national security world or the Biden national security team. She
Speaker 4: has to do what you know what with people around
Speaker 4: her were saying during the campaign was like this legitimate,
Speaker 4: very real empathy for the Palestinians and anger at the
Speaker 4: Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud
Speaker 4: on the campaign and made a bunch of I think,
Speaker 4: really tactical mistakes, like in the end, the idea that
Speaker 4: you couldn't give one slot at the convention to a
Speaker 4: speaker who would talk about, yeah, about what was going
Speaker 4: on in Gaza is a just seems so crazy now
Speaker 4: in hindsight. So it'd have to be to for her
Speaker 4: to pull it off. It would have to be just
Speaker 4: as I mean, it have to be with a level
Speaker 4: of authenticity and visceral emotion and legitimate anger at what
Speaker 4: happened before, and that you could not miss it. But
Speaker 4: you can't. You can't focus group, but you can't have
Speaker 4: your words, you can't worry about jo Biden.
Speaker 2: I also think two other things. You have to own
Speaker 2: some responsibility around that. It has to be like and
Speaker 2: not well, I was vice president now, so I wasn't
Speaker 2: supposed to say anything like a genuine like I was
Speaker 2: wrong or I made a mistake, or I came to
Speaker 2: this too late, like ye, And I think that it
Speaker 2: had like she has to demonstrate that she actually cares
Speaker 2: about this and it's actually angered her and she's actually
Speaker 2: regretful for how it was handled, and not that she's
Speaker 2: doing all the things she needs to do to check
Speaker 2: the boxes to become the Democratic nominee that the Democratic
Speaker 2: electorate wants right now, which is like always my concern
Speaker 2: about her. You know, it's like I want to I
Speaker 2: want to know if Kamala Harris wants to run again,
Speaker 2: why she wants to run again and why she wants
Speaker 2: to be president, And you can already tell like since
Speaker 2: she lost, since the campaign, she's like trying out a
Speaker 2: little like, well, I'm sort of an outsider. I've always
Speaker 2: been an outsider. And it's like, yeah, there's anti established
Speaker 2: further right now, I'm gonna jump on that train that
Speaker 2: looks good like. And I'm not saying that this is
Speaker 2: exactly what she believes, because I don't know, but it
Speaker 2: could very easily come across like that. And my advice
Speaker 2: to her would be, what do you actually want to
Speaker 2: run for president? What do you really believe? What's really
Speaker 2: angering you about the last four years? Talk about that
Speaker 2: and if people, you know, if people believe that and
Speaker 2: people find that persuasive, then you'll be the nominee. And
Speaker 2: if not, they won't. But like you just don't don't
Speaker 2: look at the the Democratic electorate as a I got
Speaker 2: to get all the pieces together and this is what
Speaker 2: I have to say and do, and if I press
Speaker 2: all the right buttons, then suddenly I'll get the nomination.
Speaker 2: You know. I just that's and that goes for any candidate,
Speaker 2: for sure, But I think she has a particular challenge there.
Speaker 4: I can't tell you something I think is going to
Speaker 4: you're gonna find perhaps very disturbing and potentially exciting if
Speaker 4: we follow by the previous the calendars of the previous cycles.
Speaker 4: One year from right about now will be the first
Speaker 4: Democratic primary debate.
Speaker 2: Oh, just gutting noticious.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it usually happens in the summer of the year
Speaker 4: prior to the election.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's gonna be so bad. I'm just telling you,
Speaker 2: I feel like the opening.
Speaker 4: Skirmishes will be with that attitude.
Speaker 2: The opening skirmishes of the Great Democratic War of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty eight have already begun, and so far they haven't
Speaker 2: been going well. I'm still I mean, we have just this.
Speaker 2: This is like the the fucking tip of the iceberg.
Speaker 2: It is gonna get so it's gonna make twenty twenty
Speaker 2: look like a fucking field day.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure. I'm not
Speaker 4: saying it's gonna be great. I'm not saying it's gonna
Speaker 4: be great. I think the there obviously there have to
Speaker 4: be points of difference in discussion and debate, and those
Speaker 4: will be painful because a lot of times people agree
Speaker 4: on so much that you really are slicing the slammy
Speaker 4: so thin. To get to that differently, I mean, as
Speaker 4: it was with the Obama other than the Iraq War,
Speaker 4: on all the issues with Obama and Clinton, like we
Speaker 4: agread on a lot of stuff and so like policy stuff,
Speaker 4: like approach of politics was very different. But on policy stuff,
Speaker 4: you know, you're fighting over the individual mandate was the
Speaker 4: main point of dispute point Hilary on that one. Yes,
Speaker 4: so we'll say we want to talk about this now
Speaker 4: you have a plan to catch Okay, about the polls,
Speaker 4: so we'll keep going.
Speaker 2: We'll keep going. Speaking of the fall elections, we are
Speaker 2: now just four months out from these midterm elections. Forget
Speaker 2: about the primary debates and our America. Two fifty Gift
Speaker 2: DAN was a full round of times Sienna Senate polls
Speaker 2: that were released Wednesday morning, which showed Democrats effectively tied
Speaker 2: but definitely not ahead in the effort to flip Republican
Speaker 2: held Senate seats. In Alaska, they have Mary Peltola just
Speaker 2: two points behind Dan Sullivan and Ohio Shared Brown is
Speaker 2: down three to John Houstead, and Iowa Josh Turik is
Speaker 2: two behind Ashley Hinson. In their polls of Maine and
Speaker 2: Texas released over the last few days, they have Graham
Speaker 2: Plattner up two points on Susan Collins and James Tallerico
Speaker 2: and Ken Paxton tied. The only clear leader is Democrat
Speaker 2: Roy Coop. We're in North Carolina, they have him up
Speaker 2: seven on Michael Wattley. There were also new Fox News
Speaker 2: polls out this week that have plattinered down three to
Speaker 2: Susan Collins and Turk up four on Hinston and Iowa.
Speaker 2: Any big picture thoughts before we get into some of
Speaker 2: the specific races.
Speaker 4: These polls are a somewhat painful reality check of just
Speaker 4: how tough the Senate map is. When you dig into
Speaker 4: these these you know, as everyone knows, we got a
Speaker 4: win Maine, we have to win North Carolina. We have
Speaker 4: to win two of Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio. These are
Speaker 4: very Republican states. Trump won those four by at least
Speaker 4: double digits. When you look on the insides of the
Speaker 4: polls majorities in all those states. I think the Democratic
Speaker 4: Party is too far on the left. This is a
Speaker 4: group of people. We think about how.
Speaker 2: Much fifty three percent too far to the left, eight
Speaker 2: percent too far to the right, thirty five percent neither
Speaker 2: not great.
Speaker 4: You like we talked about how angry people are at Trump.
Speaker 4: His approval rating in these states is all pretty good.
Speaker 4: Like in most cases in the they Republicans lead the
Speaker 4: generic ballot in all these dates by at least six points.
Speaker 4: They want Republican control of Senate by at least six points,
Speaker 4: except in Maine. Let's put maineus in North Carolina.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's which is. We should talk about that
Speaker 2: because Roy Cooper's doing well. But the generic ballot in
Speaker 2: North Carolina is also de plus six, I believe, which
Speaker 2: is crazy.
Speaker 4: North Carolina is performing like a pretty Democratic state in
Speaker 4: this environment, it's de plus six. They want Democrats control
Speaker 4: the Senate. It is. I mean, we're people are talking
Speaker 4: a lot about great work Cooper's doing. He's doing great,
Speaker 4: he's a great candidate, but he's actually only overperforming the
Speaker 4: generic ballot by one point. Yes, and a lot of
Speaker 4: these candidates in the more Republican states are overperforming the
Speaker 4: Democratic the generic ballot by three to three to eight
Speaker 4: points in some cases, you know, And so it's it's
Speaker 4: the point is we have a shot in all of
Speaker 4: these races, and that is something that you could not
Speaker 4: have said six to eight months ago. But it is
Speaker 4: very hard. And it's also other than in Texas, Republicans
Speaker 4: have actually nominated fine candidates, Ashley Hinson, John Hugh said,
Speaker 4: are generic Republicans and Dan Sulvan's like maybe a little
Speaker 4: bit worse than gener Republican, but basically a generic Republican.
Speaker 4: We have great candidates, but is it going to be enough?
Speaker 2: So this is what I was getting at a little earlier,
Speaker 2: is my take, my overall take on these polls. And
Speaker 2: again New York Times polls aren't perfect, but they are
Speaker 2: as close to perfect as we have. You know, they
Speaker 2: were off again in twenty twenty four. But like again,
Speaker 2: the purpose of a poll is not to nail the
Speaker 2: exact result. I know that might sound shocking, but it's true.
Speaker 2: It gets you within the ballpark. And in terms of
Speaker 2: within the ballpark, no one does it better than the
Speaker 2: New York Times, which is why we take these seriously
Speaker 2: and dig in on them. So my take overall, if
Speaker 2: you set all the candidates aside, we have done a
Speaker 2: great job persuading people, even people in red states, that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is doing a terrible job as president. I
Speaker 2: know you said, like it's forty three percent, that's not
Speaker 2: a great approval eating in red states, like I would
Speaker 2: have you know, that's that's pretty bad. And I know
Speaker 2: now we're getting used to because some of these national
Speaker 2: polls have them in like the high thirties. We're getting
Speaker 2: used to that. But like for any forty three is bad.
Speaker 2: It's enough to lose, right if he was running in
Speaker 2: those states. We have not done a good job persuading
Speaker 2: people that the Republicans in Congress are the primary reason
Speaker 2: that Trump has been able to make their lives worse.
Speaker 2: That's that's my larger takeaway, because you would think that
Speaker 2: the Republican I mean and the generic ballot, right, like
Speaker 2: if you take the candidates out of it, because people
Speaker 2: want to talk about like this candidate's more strong, stronger,
Speaker 2: this one's weaker, And if you take all the candidates
Speaker 2: out of it, you just look at, you know, who
Speaker 2: do you want to control Congress? You asked that question
Speaker 2: the voters, which they did. The generic ballot is just
Speaker 2: very positive for Republicans and most of these red states,
Speaker 2: even even as Donald Trump's approval rating in those same
Speaker 2: states is well under fifty percent. And that's why do
Speaker 2: you think that.
Speaker 4: Is because people don't like Democrats like these All these
Speaker 4: candidates are doing great, they are, they are out performing.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 4: I want to all like all the candidates in the
Speaker 4: four red states. I want to put Roy Cooper Platinu
Speaker 4: aside now, and I'd actually put Texas aside in a
Speaker 4: little bit here. But in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are exactly that's a good model, that's a
Speaker 2: good group.
Speaker 4: They they are. These are very Republican states in Iowa, Ohio.
Speaker 4: The hardest part here is these where Trump has lost
Speaker 4: ground is mostly with younger voters and Latino voters. And
Speaker 4: these are very white, very old states. They are whiter
Speaker 4: than the national average, they are older than the national average.
Speaker 4: And so there's just less the voters who are leaving
Speaker 4: Trump and coming to our side. There's just fewer of
Speaker 4: them in these It's a more statical elector. Alaska's more confusing.
Speaker 4: Alaska is not actually a white state, but it is not,
Speaker 4: but it obviously has a very low Latino and black
Speaker 4: population as a native population, which just is a little
Speaker 4: bit different. Texas is interesting because Texas is a a
Speaker 4: majority minority state and has a huge Latino vote, which
Speaker 4: is why Tallarico is tied in that race.
Speaker 2: So I was surprised in Texas that the generic ballot
Speaker 2: is still Republican plus six if most of the gains
Speaker 2: are younger voters and Latino voters, because Texas has plenty
Speaker 2: of both of those.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's six in the state
Speaker 4: that Trump won by.
Speaker 2: Thirteen Oh, okay, okay, I forgot that he would be
Speaker 2: that much.
Speaker 4: Yeah, in every one of these states, Trump won by
Speaker 4: at least eleven eleven points.
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Speaker 2: Let's say on those three Iowa, Alaska, Ohio. One thing
Speaker 2: on Alaska we should note is that Nate Cohne wrote
Speaker 2: like a separate thing on why the methodology and the
Speaker 2: Alaska sample might be a little weird and different, and
Speaker 2: we're not going to nerd out on that. But the
Speaker 2: upside is the Alaska results could be actually better than
Speaker 2: it appears here. Iowa and Ohio I think more fit
Speaker 2: the issue with just white voters everywhere. But I do
Speaker 2: think what's notable is we have all of our candidates
Speaker 2: in those states, like you said, are out running the
Speaker 2: generic ballot. So the Democrats are viewed the Democratic candidates
Speaker 2: are viewed as less extreme than the national Party, and
Speaker 2: they're more liked than average. And the Republican candidates in
Speaker 2: those states, though are also have a higher favorability rating
Speaker 2: than average. So I do think in those three states
Speaker 2: especially so it's Dan Sullivan, John Houstead, and Ashley Hinson
Speaker 2: who's also in Congress. She's not a senator, but she's
Speaker 2: a rep I think like there's a lot of there's
Speaker 2: a lot of work to be done on pinning the
Speaker 2: last couple of years of Donald Trump on those three
Speaker 2: incumbents who are in Washington. We are in an anti establishment,
Speaker 2: anti incumbent mood. Those people have been voting for Trump
Speaker 2: and voting for and helping Trump one hundred percent, not
Speaker 2: stopping him. So it feels like there's just a lot
Speaker 2: of work to be done there is that. Would you agree, Yeah?
Speaker 4: I would. I would say that it's tricky because what
Speaker 4: are you moving like in doing that? Are you like?
Speaker 4: The question is interesting?
Speaker 2: You're trying to find in those in those states, and
Speaker 2: according to this polls, there are a bunch of Trump
Speaker 2: disapprovers don't like Donald Trump, who are nonetheless inclined to
Speaker 2: vote for a Republican candidate for Senate. And I think
Speaker 2: those are the people that you want to get.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with that. The thing that is the
Speaker 4: question the generic ballad is interesting in this race. In
Speaker 4: these races, the question that's more interesting, which kind of
Speaker 4: lines up the generic ballad, but is who do you
Speaker 4: want to control the Senate? Right, and we Probamlys have
Speaker 4: a big advantage on that basically into the generic ballot.
Speaker 4: It's eleven in Alaska. They didn't ask the generic ballot
Speaker 4: question in Alaska because there's only one number of congress
Speaker 4: that they just asked about that race. And that's not
Speaker 4: I think immediately transferable to the political environment because it's
Speaker 4: a known quantity right in Nick Begich there. But it
Speaker 4: you know, that is hard, Like they're going to make
Speaker 4: the race be about you vote a vote for Mary Potles,
Speaker 4: a vote to make Chuck Schumer and a bunch of
Speaker 4: DSA people or whatever in charge of the Senate. And
Speaker 4: so you need eleven you need eleven percent of them
Speaker 4: to say no, we will will take Mary Paltle anyway.
Speaker 4: Like that's hard. I think Ohio is how Ohio is
Speaker 4: indicative of the larger challenge here, which is Shared Brown
Speaker 4: has a plus eight favorable rating and a Trump state
Speaker 4: of the Trump one by eleven. A majority of Ohioans do
Speaker 4: not think that Shared Brown is too far in the
Speaker 4: left a But although a majority of Ohioans think the
Speaker 4: Democratic Party is see for the left, if the goal
Speaker 4: is to not be a typical Democrat. Shared Brown has
Speaker 4: fucking nailed it.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 4: He is like he has a relationship with the voters.
Speaker 4: They like him, they think he's different than the Democrats they.
Speaker 2: Hate, and he hasn't moderated his views on anything. By
Speaker 2: the way. You feel like he was just at our
Speaker 2: house doing a fundraiser a couple of weeks ago, and
Speaker 2: he sounds exactly the same as he has for the
Speaker 2: last several decades.
Speaker 4: Well, now he's down four. Great, thanks for telling everyone that.
Speaker 4: But but what's interesting is if you compare the results
Speaker 4: of this poll to the exit poll of the Ohio
Speaker 4: Senate race in twenty twenty four, he is doing exactly
Speaker 4: the same as he was in that race, exactly. His
Speaker 4: percentage of the white non college vote, which is a
Speaker 4: majority of the basically half the vote in Ohio, is
Speaker 4: exactly the same. And he's doing no better than Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris did essentially nationally with them. But he's getting thirty
Speaker 4: six percent.
Speaker 2: And what do we do about that?
Speaker 4: I mean, it's this is this is why Ohio is
Speaker 4: such a hard fucking state. Now, can he convince some
Speaker 4: like there are places where he can make gains. He
Speaker 4: can make gains with black voters in that's how you
Speaker 4: can check out black turnout. He can do better with
Speaker 4: the younger There are places to get there. But this
Speaker 4: is why he's down three And this is why these
Speaker 4: states are so hard, because even though he is well liked,
Speaker 4: he is not extreme people, he is not getting more
Speaker 4: votes than he did four years ago. Two years ago.
Speaker 4: That's a hard part about running Shared around two years later.
Speaker 4: You're going to need some people who voted for Houston
Speaker 4: to either stay home or voted for Bernie Marino over
Speaker 4: Shared round to either change their vote or stay home.
Speaker 4: And that's not super easy.
Speaker 2: Was the difference is, And this is one of the
Speaker 2: reasons these poles sort of brought me back down to
Speaker 2: earth in a serious way. Is two years ago he
Speaker 2: was running in a presidential electorate where which is obviously
Speaker 2: going to be harder for a Democrat and to stay
Speaker 2: like Ohio, I guess I assumed that a midterm electorate
Speaker 2: would be better for Democrats than it is in these polls.
Speaker 2: And I always thought that Shared's chance and I still do.
Speaker 2: The Shared's chance to win this time versus last time
Speaker 2: is the fact that he's just going to be running
Speaker 2: in a different electorate where there's fewer non college educated
Speaker 2: white voters who turn out to vote in the midterm
Speaker 2: than there are in a presidential.
Speaker 4: Well, the problem is Ohio was an older, white, non
Speaker 4: college turnout state, and those people voted at a higher rate.
Speaker 4: And as Nate con pointed out in his analysis of
Speaker 4: the polls, a lot of the voters who have left
Speaker 4: Trump don't vote hi mid terms, right, and and that
Speaker 4: is going to be more true in a state like Ohio,
Speaker 4: which has it just say like that's interesting. Ohio is
Speaker 4: just this state that because this seems crazy that people
Speaker 4: who've only been watching politics for the last couple of
Speaker 4: presential elections, but prior to that it was the election,
Speaker 4: the state that decided the presidency and basically every election,
Speaker 4: and it has been registered and organized within an inch
Speaker 4: of its life. And one reason why it was felt
Speaker 4: hard for Obama was we always felt like we could
Speaker 4: do best in states that had large unregistered populations, potential
Speaker 4: Democrats North Carolina, Florida, the hisstory that was dream that
Speaker 4: was dream about Texas over the years, and Ohio just
Speaker 4: had there were no there were no new votes to get. Yeah,
Speaker 4: young people were leaving, and so it's it is a
Speaker 4: it's a hard it's a hard state. Can he still
Speaker 4: win it, Absolutely he can. But I think it just
Speaker 4: speaks to how like why this is hard. It's doable,
Speaker 4: It's doable in all these states. But these are horror states.
Speaker 2: And by the way, it's why North Carolina and Texas
Speaker 2: are states that not just this cycle, but many cycles
Speaker 2: into the future. Democrats just have to win at some
Speaker 2: points because you don't run into the same older white
Speaker 2: voters and no new voters issue in those states because
Speaker 2: so many people have been moving to them over the
Speaker 2: last decade. They're becoming more diverse there, becoming younger, and
Speaker 2: so on paper, they should be states that Democrats have
Speaker 2: a better chance in than places like Ohio and Iowa
Speaker 2: long term. Long term, I am interested in why the
Speaker 2: generic ballot in North Carolina is so good.
Speaker 4: Well, it is thinking about this way. It's a state
Speaker 4: that Trump won by two points. I think I think
Speaker 4: two points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was very close.
Speaker 4: He barely only he want to buy less than a
Speaker 4: point in twenty twenty. And so if you think that
Speaker 4: the generic ballot is plus seven or eight nationally, that
Speaker 4: it kind of gets you to a plus sex.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, and so there's and that's Roy Cooper. There
Speaker 2: is just you know, he's just trucking through and not
Speaker 2: really getting any national attention and the race is kind
Speaker 2: of quiet and it's benefiting him. That's it's probably a
Speaker 2: state where getting attention is a bad thing.
Speaker 4: Well, he doesn't need attention because he has high name
Speaker 4: my date. Voters like him, right, right, so he does
Speaker 4: not need to be doing tech talk dances.
Speaker 2: And then before we get to Maine, because Texas is
Speaker 2: sort of the opposite issue, which is I do think
Speaker 2: in Texas, obviously James Hillary goes a strong candidate. We've
Speaker 2: talked about that a lot, and there's been a shift
Speaker 2: in the ballot, the generic ballot in Texas. But I
Speaker 2: think it's fair to say that Ken Paxton as the
Speaker 2: candidate and his his problems and issues are are hurting
Speaker 2: him in these polls.
Speaker 4: Yes, he people, it's a little bit like uh, Maine.
Speaker 2: That's right, that's why, Yeah, that's what.
Speaker 4: It's absolutely hurting him. What is interesting is I find
Speaker 4: this impossible to believe, and it may be the factory
Speaker 4: that ends linear political television advertising forever, which is the
Speaker 4: Texas primary was the most expensive primary in history, ungodly
Speaker 4: amounts of money were spent by John Cornyn and Cornyn
Speaker 4: super PACs. Most of that money was spent by the
Speaker 4: Corny inside telling people about what a corrupt dickhead Ken
Speaker 4: Paxon is an Only thirty eight percent of voters to
Speaker 4: that report hearing a lot about it.
Speaker 2: And yet when you go to Maine, most voters have
Speaker 2: heard about Grand Platner stuff.
Speaker 4: Nearly nine in ten voters have heard about Grand platter stuff.
Speaker 2: Now, part of this is Maine is a smaller state,
Speaker 2: much smaller state, And I think it's word travels fast
Speaker 2: there and people know and and I think that you know,
Speaker 2: there's opportunities there as well for platinir. But I think
Speaker 2: it does say something about the sort of the gap
Speaker 2: between when there's a right wing boogeyman and a left
Speaker 2: wing boogeyman.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it is. It's the thing is is that
Speaker 4: there was the entire Republican Party infrastructure was spend one
Speaker 4: hundreds of millions of dollars. Who tell people this about
Speaker 4: Ken Paxson and people still haven't heard it. Yeah, so
Speaker 4: maybe they were doing it in the wrong way.
Speaker 2: I think you're right. I think it's TV stuff it's
Speaker 2: like an online like. We weren't talking about all of
Speaker 2: Ken Paxton's problems until it was, you know, time to vote.
Speaker 2: It just didn't. It didn't break through in the last
Speaker 2: year the way that Grand Platter stuff broke through. Let's
Speaker 2: talk about Maine. So Democratic Party machineries getting behind Platner
Speaker 2: grudgingly or otherwise. The Senate focused pack majority forward is
Speaker 2: that with their first attack at on Susan Collins. Let's
Speaker 2: take a look and then we'll talk about the polling.
Speaker 7: There thirty years live in the Washington, DC. Lifestyle changes
Speaker 7: people getting rich from insider training should be illegal, but
Speaker 7: Susan Collins doesn't think so. Susan Collins is trying to
Speaker 7: keep it so senators can get rich play in the
Speaker 7: stock market. They're making millions of dollars. Well, we can't
Speaker 7: even afford groceries and gas. We need to tell Susan
Speaker 7: Collins to stop the congressional stock trading.
Speaker 2: Okay, what do you think of that ad? What do
Speaker 2: you think that message? And then your take on the
Speaker 2: polling in Maine.
Speaker 4: I want you to do an Oscar style music. Play
Speaker 4: me off the stage if you have to catch a flight,
Speaker 4: because I honestly could talk about all, honest, all these
Speaker 4: poles for five straight hours. I could do a podcast
Speaker 4: on every one of the poles.
Speaker 2: Think I'm good. It is about an hour to lax.
Speaker 2: I should make it.
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, just don't let me miss your flight
Speaker 4: because I will never hear the end of it from
Speaker 4: your wife. So she will know, now, yes, yes, she
Speaker 4: will know. I don't think she listens to this podcast.
Speaker 4: That's right?
Speaker 2: What am I talking about?
Speaker 4: Yeah, my wife might tell her.
Speaker 2: That's part. That is.
Speaker 4: So the logic of that ad, because it's always like
Speaker 4: you look at the as like this ad sucks or
Speaker 4: the message strategy of this ads bad. Then you remember
Speaker 4: there are very smart people with a ton of data
Speaker 4: that you and I don't have, who make these decisions.
Speaker 4: So I imagine the strategy of this ad is to say,
Speaker 4: you have a lot of people who voted for Susan
Speaker 4: Collins in twenty twenty and in previous elections, like Susan
Speaker 4: Collins overperformed. She won by nine when Biden was winning
Speaker 4: Maine by almost nine, so like a seventeen eighteen point
Speaker 4: o fourth into this is a stunning stat. In two
Speaker 4: thousand and eight, she won by twenty three points when
Speaker 4: Obama was winning Maine by seventeen. Wow, she's overperformed by
Speaker 4: forty points. So you've got a lot of people who
Speaker 4: voted for Susan Collins. So one way to do this
Speaker 4: is that you want to create a permission structure to
Speaker 4: them to say I did this thing before she's changed.
Speaker 4: So that's the argument. But if you look at the
Speaker 4: New York Times poll, and it's one poll, and it's
Speaker 4: a public poll, that seems like a bad strategy because
Speaker 4: in this poll, two thirds of voters think that Susan
Speaker 4: Collins has good character in morals. So it seems hard
Speaker 4: you're gonna convince even a lot of people. I v
Speaker 4: he a grand plant, and I think Susan Collins is
Speaker 4: a good person, and so it seems harder you're gonna
Speaker 4: covince them all of a sudden that she is corrupt.
Speaker 4: And it seems to me your better argument is to
Speaker 4: look at the fact that by a margin, if I
Speaker 4: think twelve points have been left on my head Democrats
Speaker 4: people vote. People in Maine want the Democrats control the Senate,
Speaker 4: and so there should never be an ad run that
Speaker 4: is not Susan Collins standing in the Oval office holding
Speaker 4: that maga Hat.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's probably the more potent argument, right, yeah, Magahatt. Also,
Speaker 2: I think that's why, and you see Plattner was doing
Speaker 2: this in his primary night speech and elsewhere. The Brett
Speaker 2: Kavanaugh vote feels like a potent attack on her because
Speaker 2: it is a place where she was basically, you know,
Speaker 2: I'm doing what Trump wants me to do, and it's
Speaker 2: going to be fine, and then it's not fine. And
Speaker 2: that's probably an easier argument than this person that has
Speaker 2: that you think has brought home federal money to the
Speaker 2: state and has good characters. Actually a crook.
Speaker 4: In that in the in the poll fifty seven percent
Speaker 4: of independence and a majority of all manors, which I
Speaker 4: believe is the appropriate term. Think that Susan Collins will
Speaker 4: be too supportive of Donald Trump. Yeah, like that that
Speaker 4: is like there is a there is a world for
Speaker 4: the Platiner campaign that existed a year ago with none
Speaker 4: of these revelations. I think that's happened where it's like
Speaker 4: we are run. We are running a campaign to change
Speaker 4: American politics, reshape the coalitions. This pole suggested that those
Speaker 4: days are over, although there are some places where Planter
Speaker 4: is doing better than Surre Gideon did, which is why
Speaker 4: he's winning. You lost by nine points.
Speaker 2: And also why comparing this pole to the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: poles of where Sarah Gideon was at this point is
Speaker 2: not a great idea since those poles were all wrong.
Speaker 4: Yeah. That that drives me insane that you cannot even
Speaker 4: Nate come and say that pole was very very of course,
Speaker 4: which you can. The best thing you compare it to
Speaker 4: is the twenty twenty exit poles, because they actually exit
Speaker 4: polled this race in twenty twenty. And Graham platt if
Speaker 4: you look at that, Graham Platner is doing exactly the
Speaker 4: one point better than Sarah Gideon did with white working
Speaker 4: class farts, which in Maine, where ninety eight percent of
Speaker 4: the voters are white, I believe is just working class voters.
Speaker 4: So and basically the same number that Kamala Harris did
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four with white with working class white
Speaker 4: voters according to Catalyst data, where he is doing better,
Speaker 4: which is why he is winning and Sarah Gideon was
Speaker 4: losing by a lot. Is he's doing much better with
Speaker 4: young voters, and he's doing better with men. Yeah, the
Speaker 4: challenge the reason why he's not up by more is
Speaker 4: pretty simple. Susan Collins is getting ten percent of Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris voters, although Platner, to his credit, is getting four percent.
Speaker 2: Older white women, which is exactly what Ron Brinstein has
Speaker 2: been saying and said on this pod that his biggest
Speaker 2: concern is.
Speaker 4: Like I know, we all want it, like I will
Speaker 4: stipulate that Graham Platner is being weighed down in some way,
Speaker 4: shape or form by the things that have come out
Speaker 4: like that. That is definitely true. He is underperforming. All
Speaker 4: these other Democrats arebot are overperformed the generic ballot. He's
Speaker 4: underperforming it by eight points, I think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that's right, it's eleven, right, it's eleven, so
Speaker 2: it's nine points.
Speaker 4: He's underperformant nine points. That is significant. Now, the idea
Speaker 4: that we were going to be Susan Collins by ten
Speaker 4: points or even five points, I think is probably was
Speaker 4: fancible because there's definitely some grand plan underperformance. There is
Speaker 4: no question, I'm not disputing it. There's definitely Susan Collins
Speaker 4: overperformance too.
Speaker 2: Well. Yeah, and also because you would like his his
Speaker 2: approval is forty five to fifty, which isn't great but
Speaker 2: is not it's not horrible, right, you can win at
Speaker 2: forty five percent approval, which is just look at Donald
Speaker 2: Trump and hers is forty eight to fifty one. Hers
Speaker 2: was much Yeah, I was less surprised, Actually, I was
Speaker 2: surprised by both of them. I thought that his favorability
Speaker 2: might be worse after everything, and then I thought hers would.
Speaker 2: But I thought hers would be worse forty eight fifty one.
Speaker 2: This seems quite good if if you're an incumbent in
Speaker 2: an anti incumbent wave and you've been there forever in
Speaker 2: yours oldest Susan Collins's like that, that's surprised me.
Speaker 4: There is this misreading of the polls where like they
Speaker 4: ask people not to compare Platiner in Collins on characters
Speaker 4: and morals. They just ask them if having good characters
Speaker 4: or good morals, subscribe them. So Susan Collins says, these
Speaker 4: incredible numbers on you know, in the sixties on character
Speaker 4: and morals, and Platner seems like his numbers are much lower,
Speaker 4: but they're still in the mid forties. Yeah, so he's
Speaker 4: getting forty percent of the vote. So there's like four
Speaker 4: percent of people who are voting for who don't think
Speaker 4: Platner necessarily has great character of morals and are voting
Speaker 4: for him anyway. There are eighteen percent of people in
Speaker 4: some cases who think that Susan Collins is a good
Speaker 4: person are voting against her anyway.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I will also say that both Susan Collins and
Speaker 2: Graham Platner are more popular in this poll then Janet Mills.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the This is the other takeaway, Like,
Speaker 4: is it possible that like a John Baldacci or a
Speaker 4: Hannah Pingree if they had run as a generic Democrat
Speaker 4: would be doing better than Grand Platiner?
Speaker 2: Probably maybe, maybe even probably maybe even probably they chose
Speaker 2: not to.
Speaker 4: They chose not to in some cases, were some of
Speaker 4: these cancer were encouraged not to by Chuck Schumer accorney
Speaker 4: some reports. But the idea that this poll has a
Speaker 4: fair amount of evidence that Janet Mills would be doing
Speaker 4: worse than Grand Platner, certainly not better than Grand Planter.
Speaker 4: And the bigger thing is not just her favorability ring
Speaker 4: that's somewhat draged down by Platiner people who don't like her.
Speaker 4: The bigger issue is that eight more than eight and
Speaker 4: ten main voters think the main economy is bad.
Speaker 2: I know those numbers, and.
Speaker 4: When the economy is a number one issue in the election,
Speaker 4: she like she actually would be someone who was being
Speaker 4: like it would be as much a referendum on her
Speaker 4: as opposed a referender on the Trump economy, and so
Speaker 4: that would be a very very tough order.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think, look clear, all of the revelations
Speaker 2: about Platner have heard him, and he has a lot
Speaker 2: of work to do. I don't think anything in this
Speaker 2: poll shows that, like what's happened is fatal. I'm very
Speaker 2: concerned if other revelations come out. Yes, yes, yes, yes,
Speaker 2: for sure. I do think if these because then some
Speaker 2: people will argue, well, the Republicans haven't even spent all
Speaker 2: their money yet making sure that everyone knows about everything
Speaker 2: that's come out already. On that, I would say, like
Speaker 2: most of the voters in this poll, what eighty percent
Speaker 2: have heard about his problems and his issues, So like,
Speaker 2: I don't know that there's much more education to do
Speaker 2: on that front. I think what their hope has to
Speaker 2: be is that there's more stuff coming out on the
Speaker 2: Republican side that they can that they can use.
Speaker 4: The thing that I worry more than the character and
Speaker 4: stuff and the moral stuff is that Platinum is seen
Speaker 4: as more extreme Susan Collins. Yeah, and that's where I
Speaker 4: think that's the ads I think are more would be
Speaker 4: more concerning. Yes, Susan Collins very much of a do
Speaker 4: not think she's extreme?
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, and it's going to be that's not pushing
Speaker 2: on an open door on that. It is. It's much
Speaker 2: easier to say, like, oh, well she's just just look
Speaker 2: at the record. She goes along with Trump, and you
Speaker 2: don't like Trump, here you go.
Speaker 4: Just vote for sus and Collins is a vote for
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. Senate VOTs and Collins, the vote to confirm
Speaker 4: another Trump Supreme Courts. The vote for versus and Collins
Speaker 4: is Trump Trump. Just it's like it's not that complicated.
Speaker 4: It should just be everything, like, do not overthink this people. Yeah,
Speaker 4: like you need a bunch of people who want the
Speaker 4: Democrats control the Senate to overgrand platform. But if you
Speaker 4: do that, you will win.
Speaker 2: Yep. All right, that's our show for today. Everyone have
Speaker 2: a happy fourth and a great holiday weekend. Tommy and
Speaker 2: Love It will be back with a new show on Tuesday,
Speaker 2: and I'll be back a week from tuesday.
Speaker 4: Bye everyone, by everyone, have a Great Fourth Pod.
Speaker 2: Dave America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is
Speaker 2: produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Ruben, McKenna, Roberts, and Faris Safari,
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