Speaker 1: It's night Side with Dan Ray, w BZ Constance met
Speaker 1: Radio bro.
Speaker 2: Welcome back. Tonight is the night after the big day,
Speaker 2: the election of twenty twenty four. Boy, you know, we
Speaker 2: waited for that for months and finally it was upon us,
Speaker 2: and everybody was concerned it was going to take several days,
Speaker 2: and it didn't. It took several hours. But by five
Speaker 2: point thirty this morning, everyone agreed, well everyone it seems
Speaker 2: to have agreed that Donald Trump had won the Electoral
Speaker 2: College with over two hundred and seventy votes, and now
Speaker 2: apparently he is still leading on the popular vote and
Speaker 2: he is stunning reversal for Donald Trump, I will admit,
Speaker 2: as one of my listeners challenged me today. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: said all along, I did not think that Donald Trump
Speaker 2: could be elected in a one on one face off
Speaker 2: with the Democrat. I knew that he would win the
Speaker 2: the Republican nomination if he wanted it. I think that
Speaker 2: I questioned his willingness or his unwillingness to campaign with
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley or invite her onto the campaign trail. But
Speaker 2: you gotta give it to the guy. He put together.
Speaker 2: He cobbled together a coalition that I think is a
Speaker 2: has the potential of basically changing the political landscape in
Speaker 2: this country for years ahead. So who better to join
Speaker 2: me tonight to talk about it than one of my
Speaker 2: favorite posters, Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University. Dave, welcome back.
Speaker 2: How many hours sleep have you had in the last
Speaker 2: forty eight hours?
Speaker 3: Four hours? Dan, It's great to be back.
Speaker 2: Wow. When did you think that this was You know,
Speaker 2: everybody was saying it's going to be really close, and
Speaker 2: my concern was that we would have another one of
Speaker 2: these elections that ended up in court and we were
Speaker 2: going to be challenging, you know, like two thousand hanging
Speaker 2: chads or twenty twenty when there were sixty one cases
Speaker 2: and allegations of fraud, none of which proved to be
Speaker 2: to be true. When did you think that looks like
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's going to win? At what point last night?
Speaker 2: What was the what were the signs that you were
Speaker 2: seeing early? If they were signs you were seeing early.
Speaker 3: The first wave I had was around nine thirty was
Speaker 3: relatively early because I was watching New Hampshire and my
Speaker 3: whole theory was that New Hampshire was the canary in
Speaker 3: the coal mine. If Harris won New Hampshire by ten
Speaker 3: or twelve points. It was going to be a blue wave.
Speaker 3: If Harris lost New Hampshire, are only won by one
Speaker 3: to four points. That was the signal to me that
Speaker 3: I should then look at Virginia, which was close, Minnesota
Speaker 3: which was close. And so when you piece together those
Speaker 3: data points, it informed me that there was trouble ahead
Speaker 3: for the Harris team in the rust belt states.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at the map, and I'm sure you
Speaker 2: don't need to look at the map. That's what you
Speaker 2: do for a living, so you're but it is. Obviously
Speaker 2: Harris carried New England, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland,
Speaker 2: and Virginia, so a slice of the northeast, the coastal northeast.
Speaker 2: But President elect Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. He repeated
Speaker 2: what he did in twenty sixteen, and then he you know,
Speaker 2: not only did they win Ohio, but they flipped a
Speaker 2: Senate seed. It looks like they're going to flip a
Speaker 2: Senate seat in Montana. They flipped a Senate seat and
Speaker 2: meaning the Republicans in West Virginia. This was a great
Speaker 2: night for the Republicans. In my sense is that they
Speaker 2: very well made hold on to their lead in the
Speaker 2: House at this point. What's your take on that? Do
Speaker 2: you have a strong feeling as to what's going to
Speaker 2: happen either in the Senate of the House. I think
Speaker 2: they could have fifty three Senate seats when all of
Speaker 2: a said and done.
Speaker 3: Oh, the Senate is for sure Republican, I think, and
Speaker 3: the House is leaning that way, which you're right about
Speaker 3: the map. The only blue that you see on the
Speaker 3: map is the northeast, with Virginia at the west, Washington, Oregon, California,
Speaker 3: and then two clumps of two states Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado,
Speaker 3: New Mexico. That's it. Everything else is red.
Speaker 2: You can throw in Hawaii there as well, but Hawaii
Speaker 2: and Alaska have always split one. Hawaii's Democratic, Alaska is Republican.
Speaker 2: So my understanding is that from a statistical point of view,
Speaker 2: and I know that bragging is not something that you
Speaker 2: do real much. You're a pretty quiet guy. But uh,
Speaker 2: with the you pretty much were seven for seven within
Speaker 2: the margin of era on you know, on Michigan and
Speaker 2: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and bell Weathers as well. I mean
Speaker 2: Wisconsin statewide, you had a Trump for one percent and
Speaker 2: and I guess it turned out to be Trump for
Speaker 2: one percent. You had a bell Weather in Door County
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, which you had Harris plus three. I think
Speaker 2: that now has gone to Trump. If I'm not mistaken,
Speaker 2: is that there have been a late change there tonight
Speaker 2: and Door County in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
Speaker 2: Okay, I thought I heard. I thought I heard one
Speaker 2: of the network reporters saying that that was the big
Speaker 2: bell Weather County. But Michigan state wide, you had it
Speaker 2: as a flat footed tie and you had Trump. It
Speaker 2: turns out Trump won by about one and a half,
Speaker 2: but that was well within the margin of era. Pennsylvania
Speaker 2: you had it as a tie. Trump was two. Trump
Speaker 2: is always underrated. You were as close as anyone. There
Speaker 2: really is a hitting Trump vote out there. At least
Speaker 2: there wasn't this election. Am I right on that?
Speaker 3: Oh? Absolutely? Yeah, yeah, absolutely there was, but it wasn't
Speaker 3: as drastic. I mean, the polster has got skewered in
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and for good reason. I
Speaker 3: found myself answering press calls for other pollsters who weren't
Speaker 3: picking up the phone why polling was wrong, which is okay,
Speaker 3: but in this cycle, it was too bad. It was
Speaker 3: a couple points, and it is a hidden vote. Part
Speaker 3: of it is due to the methodology. You know, if
Speaker 3: you're doing a ten minute study, you tend to draw
Speaker 3: in more college educated and those with a master's degree
Speaker 3: to do a ten minute study because a lot of people,
Speaker 3: you know, who may have vote education training or just
Speaker 3: a high school diploma, they excuse themselves out of the
Speaker 3: screen because they say they don't think they know enough
Speaker 3: about the issues of the candidates, but they'll vote.
Speaker 2: And they know and they know who they're going to
Speaker 2: vote for.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, they take themselves out of the screen. Question. But
Speaker 3: and so you know, the demographics are filled by more
Speaker 3: educated people and that's you know, but that's an adjustment
Speaker 3: of posters have had to make.
Speaker 2: Okay, so you're a polster, you're not a political practitioner.
Speaker 2: But it seems to me if I'm wrong, please correct me.
Speaker 2: I would appreciate that. But this seems to me to
Speaker 2: be election and election which now has really changed the
Speaker 2: dynamic between the two parties here in America and that
Speaker 2: both parties have to kind of recalibrate. The Republicans have
Speaker 2: an easier time because they're up but the Democrats, they
Speaker 2: got to do a lot of soul searching when they
Speaker 2: look at the number of votes that they've lost amongst
Speaker 2: Latino voters and black voters, particularly black men. Is this
Speaker 2: a one time only or do you think this has
Speaker 2: implications four years, eight years from now?
Speaker 3: It's hard to say. You know, I think you're right, though,
Speaker 3: both candidates underperformed in certain categories. For example, Trump underperformed
Speaker 3: among older voters compared to twenty twenty, and there were
Speaker 3: Republicans voters. Some were choice Republican voters, others were sort
Speaker 3: of the Liz Cheney Nikki Hayley slice of the Republican
Speaker 3: Party that Kamala Harris tried to pull in. The mistake
Speaker 3: she made was that for every vote that she pulled in,
Speaker 3: Trump would make up that single vote someplace else. Now,
Speaker 3: Harris underperformed in areas that were much more leveraged for Trump.
Speaker 3: In other words, let's say you have two baskets of
Speaker 3: you know, you have the Tamala basket of apples and
Speaker 3: the Trump basket of apples. If Trump gave up an
Speaker 3: apple for his basket, you know, he would make it
Speaker 3: up with another demographic. But what Trump did was he
Speaker 3: went after Kamala Harris demographics which were leveraged, meaning Joe
Speaker 3: Biden won Hispanics two to one in twenty twenty, which
Speaker 3: means for every apple a Hispanic voter that Trump put
Speaker 3: in his basket, Iamala Harris then had to make up
Speaker 3: two apples for that one to keep that two to
Speaker 3: one ratio of sixty five to thirty two. And then
Speaker 3: when it came to Black voters, for every Trump Trump
Speaker 3: went after those young black men, for every apple well
Speaker 3: of young black men that Trump put in his basket,
Speaker 3: Kamal Harris needed seven apples to make up seven voters
Speaker 3: to make up for that one. So where Trump was
Speaker 3: stealing in the you know, the the Hispanic men and
Speaker 3: the and the and the black men, it wasn't Oh,
Speaker 3: Kamal haus could just you know, she could make up
Speaker 3: one vote for every vote that Trump picked up. She
Speaker 3: had to keep that same winning ratio that Biden had
Speaker 3: two to one with Hispanics, seven to one with blacks,
Speaker 3: and she couldn't do it. There weren't enough. There weren't
Speaker 3: enough apples out there for her to even after the ratios.
Speaker 2: One statistic that hit me kind of between the eyes tonight,
Speaker 2: as I looked was in the home state of Liz Cheney.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump carried that home stage seventy two, almost a
Speaker 2: three to one ratio, seventy two to twenty six. That's
Speaker 2: that's that's a pretty strong repudiation in a state that
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney once represented and her father has always been associated,
Speaker 2: well except for his time in Texas. Where does Liz
Speaker 2: Cheney go from here? Does she just become a Democrat
Speaker 2: and decide to run for office in some other state
Speaker 2: as a Democrat?
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I really, I really don't know. Maybe
Speaker 3: she goes into academia, and maybe she starts her own
Speaker 3: consulting firm, you know, and hope that a different kind
Speaker 3: of Republican takes over that she's more aligned with or
Speaker 3: a Democrat. But I think I think what the state
Speaker 3: is saying when you talk about Montana, I think they're
Speaker 3: saying to Trump, don't blame us for for Liz Cheney's
Speaker 3: you know, statements and activities where you mean.
Speaker 2: Why what the state of Wyoming is Yeah? Yeah, And
Speaker 2: in Montana it looks as if the Republicans knocked off
Speaker 2: long three three term Democratic incumbent test John Tester Senator
Speaker 2: Tester let's let's do this, Dave, I got to take
Speaker 2: a quick break. Let me open up the phone lines here,
Speaker 2: give people a question, to give people an opportunity to
Speaker 2: ask you any question they want about the real numbers
Speaker 2: last night. I am really happy that this election turned
Speaker 2: out decisively, and I think it is a decisive election,
Speaker 2: even though it's going to be probably fifty one forty
Speaker 2: seven or something like that. The fact that Trump carried
Speaker 2: the Electoral College as easily as he did, uh and
Speaker 2: and the popular vote. He's already been invited to the
Speaker 2: White House by President Biden. Vice President Harris delivered her
Speaker 2: concession speech today. I think we're going to have a
Speaker 2: fairly quiet couple of months. And I'm stunned at that.
Speaker 2: But that's not the only thing that has dounne me
Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours. Do you have the
Speaker 2: same feeling that I had that, hey, you know, we
Speaker 2: got through this election as a country and maybe maybe
Speaker 2: just maybe we can come together and be a little
Speaker 2: more united, more united, or do you think that this
Speaker 2: divide is just a desire, that a divide that is
Speaker 2: going to continue on and on and on.
Speaker 3: I'll see what happens in Congress, but I think the
Speaker 3: early indications were encouraging. I did watch her concession speech,
Speaker 3: and I've kind of sampled some of the commentary from
Speaker 3: both right leaning talking heads and left leaning talking heads,
Speaker 3: and they seem to be almost clamoring yearning for the
Speaker 3: country coming together. You see, the left leaning talking heads
Speaker 3: thought that would happen under Kamala Harris. But you know,
Speaker 3: when you see those you talked about landslide, when you
Speaker 3: see those kinds of numbers across so many different states,
Speaker 3: that sends a powerful message. And there are people who
Speaker 3: are in politics or politicians for a reason. They understand popularity,
Speaker 3: They understand polling, probably better than a lot of other people.
Speaker 3: And when the voters have you know, exercised their right,
Speaker 3: you know they have to readjust they have to recalibrate
Speaker 3: their own political philosophy and their advocacy.
Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting the next few weeks, and
Speaker 2: of course, once the president elect takes the oath of office,
Speaker 2: I'm sure that there'll be some actions that he takes,
Speaker 2: which is which will ignite a lot of passions. But
Speaker 2: I'm sure he's going to look at those as keeping
Speaker 2: campaign promises. So we'll see six thirty and six seven.
Speaker 2: We'll get a couple of calls in here for day Pailologus.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to hang him out to dry tonight.
Speaker 2: If you want to criticize posters, you can, but do
Speaker 2: it politely. If you want to ask him any question, again,
Speaker 2: I asked him to be respectful. Back on Night's side
Speaker 2: right after this.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World
Speaker 1: Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, let's try to get some calls in here
Speaker 2: for your Dave Paleologus. Let's go first off to Ken
Speaker 2: in Florida. Ken, you first this hour with poster Dave Paleologus.
Speaker 4: Go ahead, Ken, Hello, Dan, Hey Dave, Dan, you forgot
Speaker 4: to call me nostradamus.
Speaker 2: Ken, Well, you will always take care of that for me.
Speaker 2: Tell us why we're calling noster domas tonight.
Speaker 4: Yes, I'm not. I'm not the most modest guys. I'm sorry.
Speaker 4: It's David.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yes, congratulations on your polling. I find the polling to
Speaker 4: be fascinating. I'm kind of a political junkie by no
Speaker 4: means an expert, And what I was predicting with Dan,
Speaker 4: what I was watching is the change in the demographics. Well, first,
Speaker 4: of all her policies. Well, she didn't really have any policies,
Speaker 4: did she. You know, she flipped blop and everything. So
Speaker 4: I thought that most Americans, the majority of Americans, would
Speaker 4: see past that. And also I saw the shift in demographics,
Speaker 4: whether it was you know, African American men, latinos.
Speaker 3: I live in.
Speaker 4: Florida, I'm formerly from Massachusetts. But I saw a lot
Speaker 4: of changes in the demographics. So that's why I thought
Speaker 4: he would win both the popular vote in the electoral college.
Speaker 4: But certainly I didn't see the blue wall caving in
Speaker 4: like it did. So I'm curious about what you think
Speaker 4: about how he did so well in that blue wall.
Speaker 3: That's a great question. And congratulations for predicting the popular vote.
Speaker 3: That's that's terrific. I mean, it's almost a given that
Speaker 3: Democrats win the popular vote. That can either win the
Speaker 3: electoral College or lose electoral college. But to your point,
Speaker 3: so take Michigan and Detroit, which each of twelve percent black.
Speaker 3: For in terms of likely voters, what we knew is
Speaker 3: that black likely voters ages eighteen to thirty four were
Speaker 3: defecting to either Cornell West, Jill Stein Trump or weren't
Speaker 3: going to vote overall Black men and the black population
Speaker 3: voted overwhelmingly for Harris. But as I said, in the
Speaker 3: exit polling, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the exit polling
Speaker 3: showed Biden winning black voters ninety two to seven. So
Speaker 3: I saw the young, when I saw the young black
Speaker 3: men is coming in at eighteen, nineteen twenty, exactly, I
Speaker 3: knew that that seven percent was going to be you know,
Speaker 3: blown away in terms of the black vote. And she
Speaker 3: won the black vote handily, but she couldn't repeat the
Speaker 3: ninety two to seven advantage, and therefore she couldn't carry
Speaker 3: that Detroit Wayne County advantage across Michigan or the Philadelphia,
Speaker 3: you know, Delaware County advantage across Pennsylvania. And that's how
Speaker 3: you know, and they're just there. There wasn't a big
Speaker 3: enough margin in those blue cities to sustain itself across.
Speaker 2: The Let me jump in, why was it then that
Speaker 2: black men supported an older white candidate in Joe Biden
Speaker 2: four years ago and turned their backs on a younger
Speaker 2: woman of mixed mixed heritage. But you know, her dad
Speaker 2: was Jamaican, certainly identified as black.
Speaker 3: The economy, okay, the economy, all right, yeah, I mean
Speaker 3: polling supports that. Yeah, Guster Domas is right. The polling
Speaker 3: supports because he's right, because people were saying in the
Speaker 3: polling they weren't looking at issues like abortion rights. Abortion
Speaker 3: rights was important to young women, young black women, and
Speaker 3: young Hispanic women, but not to young black men and
Speaker 3: young Hispanic men. And you know, I also talked to
Speaker 3: our kind of product, the Detroit Free Press, and he
Speaker 3: was saying that there was this bougie personality that he
Speaker 3: was picking up in churches and in the black community
Speaker 3: where black black men just they couldn't identify with her
Speaker 3: as being Philly or Detroit that they saw they saw
Speaker 3: her as more upper middle class, and there was almost
Speaker 3: a class divided within the black community. And that didn't
Speaker 3: help matters when you add that into the economy and
Speaker 3: immigration as the top two issues.
Speaker 4: Did they know she was raised middle class? Did you
Speaker 4: know that?
Speaker 3: Oh? Sure, sure in every speech.
Speaker 4: I mean so again my point again, I'm a novice,
Speaker 4: you're an expert. I just watched when if you calculate
Speaker 4: that shift in demographics in each major city around the country,
Speaker 4: I said, he's going to win the popular vote. You know,
Speaker 4: even in blue states, he's going to pick up more votes.
Speaker 4: So that's why.
Speaker 2: You should have bet some money on that. You'd be
Speaker 2: a rich man tonight.
Speaker 4: Come into Vegas odds. I said Trump's gonna win. Look
Speaker 4: at Vegas.
Speaker 3: I go.
Speaker 4: I know, but I'm allowed to gambler, so I didn't.
Speaker 2: All right, thank you ken Aka, appreciate it.
Speaker 4: Future Dan that and no, thank you sir for your polling.
Speaker 4: You your you have a Do you have a web?
Speaker 4: Can we find your website or anything? Or where are
Speaker 4: you on the internet?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Sure, it's suffolk s U F f O LK
Speaker 3: dot E d U slash s U p r C.
Speaker 3: And that gives the latest polls. We have all the
Speaker 3: top ranked posters. Any of the posters on the lifts
Speaker 3: are really good to look at. There's a lot of
Speaker 3: good folks on there and uh and some of the
Speaker 3: upcoming polls are also on there.
Speaker 4: And maybe Dan can list that because I'm still tired.
Speaker 4: I was up till three thirty, and I was you
Speaker 4: shouldn't be drinking scotch at three thirty, but I was.
Speaker 4: And I'm very tired. I'm going to bed now with
Speaker 4: gator ring. So maybe Dank can listen link that somewhere.
Speaker 2: Send me an send me an email tomorrow and I
Speaker 2: will have it for you. Okay, well, all right, thank you,
Speaker 2: great you again. I know that's that's suffolk dot E
Speaker 2: d U. And what is the the additional.
Speaker 3: It's a slash up r C, which is an acronym
Speaker 3: Pacific University Political Research Center supr su PRC.
Speaker 2: Okay, we're past the news here, we have the news.
Speaker 2: Let's take the news. Can you stick with me for
Speaker 2: one more segment?
Speaker 3: Sure?
Speaker 2: I know you've had a long, long a couple of nights. Well,
Speaker 2: you've got along a few weeks. I know I have
Speaker 2: another question coming back, but we also have other callers
Speaker 2: six and six, one, seven, nine, three, one tenth thirty.
Speaker 2: We're gonna be talking politics all night. Uh. We are
Speaker 2: fortunate enough to have Dave Paleo Logus with us for
Speaker 2: a little while longer. Feel free if you want to
Speaker 2: ask a question of somebody who really studies this not
Speaker 2: only during the election season, but that is his profession
Speaker 2: and no one does it better. He and Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 2: We gave Spencer a lot of kudos for his poll
Speaker 2: on Iowa, which he never got credit for. I know
Speaker 2: you credited him, but uh, the Boston pollsters had a
Speaker 2: pretty good, pretty good election night, that's for sure. Between
Speaker 2: the two of you. We'll be back at nice that
Speaker 2: with Dave Paleo Logus and more phone calls right after this.
Speaker 1: You're on Night Side with Dan Ray. I'm Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get more calls in here. Going to
Speaker 2: go to Jason in nor would Jason You're on with
Speaker 2: Dave Paleo Logus go right ahead. Got a question for
Speaker 2: Dave the pollster.
Speaker 6: Yes, I do have a question. It's a real treat
Speaker 6: to have such a skilled and clear spoken pollster.
Speaker 2: And that's a great poster.
Speaker 6: I'm really enjoying what he has to say. Uh, And
Speaker 6: like probably everybody else in the country, I'm craving some
Speaker 6: unity here going forward. And I wonder if he could
Speaker 6: comment prospectively from a polster's point of view on I
Speaker 6: have three issues here. Maybe he would comment, don't choose
Speaker 6: one or comment on.
Speaker 2: All free give it a shot.
Speaker 6: What are the prospects for these issues resulting in more
Speaker 6: rankor and divisiveness or possibly leading to unity. So President
Speaker 6: elect Trump has made two promises, among as many others,
Speaker 6: mass deportations. I'd be curious if David would like to
Speaker 6: comment on the prospects of unity or divisiveness around that one.
Speaker 6: Budget cuts. I think he made that promise for the
Speaker 6: first time early this morning in his speech. I don't
Speaker 6: recall him making any comments about paying down the deficit,
Speaker 6: but paying down the deficit will require budget cuts. And
Speaker 6: the third issue is related to abortion. I think the
Speaker 6: abortion is much less divisive now at the federal level
Speaker 6: because it's off the table at the federal level. However,
Speaker 6: if it's both houses of Congress are Republican controlled, I
Speaker 6: think it's inevitable that early on it will come into
Speaker 6: play an attempt to cut all the funding for planned parently.
Speaker 6: So those are the three questions. I don't know.
Speaker 2: Why don't we take them one at a time? I hope, Dave,
Speaker 2: I hope you were taking notes here.
Speaker 3: Where should we start in?
Speaker 2: I guess you can start with the abortion issue. I mean,
Speaker 2: the abortion vote didn't turn out nearly as dramatically as
Speaker 2: the Vice President had hoped. That has to be disappointing
Speaker 2: to her, and part of the reason that she didn't win.
Speaker 2: Is that issue now less important going forward? Or I mean,
Speaker 2: I guess it depends what happens in the various States.
Speaker 3: So it is an important issue to a select group
Speaker 3: of likely voters. We know that, and I think there
Speaker 3: was an assumption that because Robruss's wade was overturned in
Speaker 3: the spring of twenty twenty two had resulted in a
Speaker 3: in the abatement of a red wave in the midterms
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two, that the same thing was going
Speaker 3: to happen, that independent women were going to break away
Speaker 3: from independent men who were voting for the trump endor
Speaker 3: centic candidate. What happened was the independent women, because of
Speaker 3: Roe versus Way, they flipped and they didn't vote with
Speaker 3: the independent men. That didn't happen in twenty twenty four
Speaker 3: to the extent that they thought it would. For a
Speaker 3: couple of reasons. Number one, two years it expired, and
Speaker 3: so the pool of people who were most intense on
Speaker 3: the abortion issue had drunk a little bit. It was
Speaker 3: still strong among women, especially single women. And secondly, because
Speaker 3: the pool, the pool of voters was larger in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four. So if you have an intense group of
Speaker 3: voters in twenty twenty two, the turnout was lower in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. It was a midterm election, and so
Speaker 3: that that pool had much more impact, whereas with many
Speaker 3: many people voting who were more concerned about the economy
Speaker 3: and immigration, it was more diluted.
Speaker 6: Okay, So Welcoward planned parenthood funding cuts become a federal issue.
Speaker 3: I mean, they could, and that's really going to depend
Speaker 3: on Congress, right, It's going to depend on when. But
Speaker 3: what what what the makeup of Congress is, and you
Speaker 3: know how, you know how how far Congress is willing
Speaker 3: to go with it with the issue. I mean, Comma,
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, No, it's just Becauna say, Kama has pulled
Speaker 3: really well on the abortion issue and on health care too,
Speaker 3: and they can and you know, unfortunately for her, I
Speaker 3: don't know why they did this, but in our polling
Speaker 3: and most of the public bowling, that was a twofer.
Speaker 3: It wasn't just about abortion, right, she had that she
Speaker 3: was winning it by twenty I think the play would
Speaker 3: have been to really talk about healthcare, more discussion about healthcare,
Speaker 3: because she was winning overwhelmingly on healthcare. But they kind
Speaker 3: of pushed that aside and they only did specific targeting
Speaker 3: to older people with you know, a specific medicare issue,
Speaker 3: and they didn't really open it up to the more
Speaker 3: broader you know, comparative advantage she had over Trump on
Speaker 3: that one issue of healthcare.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, but again it depends, Jason upon what the
Speaker 2: Republicans choose to do here, and you know it may
Speaker 2: be that their argument will be planned parent whood should
Speaker 2: function like any other five O, one C three uh.
Speaker 2: And and because there's such a divisive issue, it would
Speaker 2: be like having government funding for the NRA. I mean
Speaker 2: they it depends upon how they might package and sell it.
Speaker 2: Give me the other two things real quickly so we
Speaker 2: can get a quick comment from David then and then we.
Speaker 3: Got to run with the.
Speaker 6: Deploitation and bunchy cuts to pay down the deficite.
Speaker 2: Yeah okay, yeah, so I met.
Speaker 3: We that's those great questions on mass deportations. We've asked
Speaker 3: these questions before, and you know, we have a divided
Speaker 3: country on mass deportations. So I think it was forty
Speaker 3: four actually approved of it, at almost fifty percent disapproved
Speaker 3: of it. And then we asked the second question, which is,
Speaker 3: despite how you feel about the issue itself, how easy
Speaker 3: or difficult do you think it would be? And most
Speaker 3: people said it would be difficult or impossible to deport
Speaker 3: millions of people despite whether or not they supported the
Speaker 3: idea or not supported the idea. So there's a logistical
Speaker 3: question in the minds of likely voters.
Speaker 2: Here's what I think. Here's what I think Trump's going
Speaker 2: to do. Beatrice to Dave, if you agree, He's going
Speaker 2: to focus on people who are here, have committed crimes,
Speaker 2: accused of crimes, people who we know who have come
Speaker 2: into the country and who have escaped from other countries,
Speaker 2: who are criminal, serious criminal matters. He's going to try
Speaker 2: to get ICE, and he's trying to get localities to
Speaker 2: work with ICE and deport some of those high profile
Speaker 2: and he's he's not going to be going out grabbing,
Speaker 2: you know, a single mom's or or single parents off
Speaker 2: the street their kids. He's not He's not crazy. He's
Speaker 2: going to focus on more cooperation with ICE. The Democrats
Speaker 2: took it to extreme. They said ICE can't cooperate, can't
Speaker 2: be involved in detainers, and it doesn't matter who the
Speaker 2: person is, even if they are a career criminal or
Speaker 2: a serious have similar serious criminal charges. That's the way
Speaker 2: where I think he's going to deal with that. Would
Speaker 2: you agree to disagree, day.
Speaker 3: Peale, I definitely would agree with that.
Speaker 2: Yes, for sure, and so Jason, I hate to do
Speaker 2: this better, but we're flat out of time. Great questions.
Speaker 2: I just got to keep rolling here because we were
Speaker 2: way past our break.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, of course, Thank you, Dan.
Speaker 2: Thanks Jason to show you as very provocative questions. All right,
Speaker 2: we will lock Jason off here and we will take
Speaker 2: a quick break and we'll get everybody in. Dave, I
Speaker 2: promise I'll let you go at ten six, one, seven,
Speaker 2: two four ten thirty one line there six one seven,
Speaker 2: nine three one ten thirty coming right back on Nightside.
Speaker 1: Now, back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Speaker 1: night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: Today, before we pick up a couple of more phone
Speaker 2: calls at the end. Here, I have to get your response,
Speaker 2: Joy Reid of MSNBC. She's not a political pollster, but
Speaker 2: she had she had this to say, cut number twenty eight.
Speaker 2: I'd love to get your reaction to her analysis last night.
Speaker 2: This is Joy Reid of MSNBC. Cut twenty eight. Pay
Speaker 2: attention to the reference.
Speaker 7: To say, do you know anyone who has experienced or
Speaker 7: been in the United States for any period of time
Speaker 7: and experience this country's history and knows it cannot have
Speaker 7: believed that it would be easy to elect a woman president,
Speaker 7: let alone a woman of color.
Speaker 2: Let's just be.
Speaker 7: Clear, and nothing that was true yesterday about how flawlessly this.
Speaker 6: Campaign was run is not true now.
Speaker 7: I mean, this really was an historic flawlessly run campaign.
Speaker 7: She had Queen Latifa never endorses anyone she can out,
Speaker 7: you know. I mean, she had every prominent celebrity voice
Speaker 7: she had, She had the Taylor Swifty to the Swifties,
Speaker 7: she had the Beehive like you could not have run
Speaker 7: a better campaign in that short period of time. And
Speaker 7: I think that's still true.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what she's talking about. If I mean, uh,
Speaker 2: if Queen Latifa endorsed, I guess she figures that that
Speaker 2: she would have sold it up here in America. Did
Speaker 2: you do any polling on Queen Latifa's impact?
Speaker 3: No, we didn't, but we did a celebrity poll a
Speaker 3: couple of months ago, and if she had read the poll,
Speaker 3: she would have concluded that it is no measure to
Speaker 3: run a successful campaign. We asked the impact active celebrities,
Speaker 3: everybody from Tiger Woods to Taylor Swift to Bad Bunny,
Speaker 3: you name it, Charles Barklay. We had the Obamas on
Speaker 3: there lu Clinton's I mean, most people were saying that
Speaker 3: the influence of a celebrity would have no effect. People
Speaker 3: don't want to be told who to vote for by
Speaker 3: celebrities as a matter of fact. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 3: the poll showed that there was actually people who said
Speaker 3: I would vote against the person just because they were
Speaker 3: telling me who to vote for. So if she had
Speaker 3: looked at that pole might have helped inform her her opinion.
Speaker 2: But you didn't pull Queen Latita, that's the point we'd
Speaker 2: have to make him.
Speaker 3: No, we did not.
Speaker 2: Let's keep rolling here. I'm going to get a couple
Speaker 2: in real quickly. Let me go Dot in Medford, DoD.
Speaker 2: You got to be quick for me because they got
Speaker 2: one more behind you.
Speaker 5: Go ahead, Dot, Okay, I'm quick. I was up till
Speaker 5: three in the morning.
Speaker 4: I couldn't vote.
Speaker 2: Leave.
Speaker 5: What Trump pulled off, it was fabulous. And you know
Speaker 5: I've worked for him since sixteen. He did, he got
Speaker 5: the popular vote, he got the he got everything he needed.
Speaker 5: He's getting the sentence. And it's because the people are
Speaker 5: sick and tired of the Democrats there. They can't take
Speaker 5: it anymore, and they spoke out all.
Speaker 3: Right, Donald God, I have a question of you, Dodd.
Speaker 3: What you have a question? How would you he has
Speaker 3: to bring the country together? How does Trump bring the
Speaker 3: country together? He's got to make some major moves to
Speaker 3: do that. How does he do it?
Speaker 5: He already has brought it together. He has brought it together.
Speaker 6: Did you see the boat?
Speaker 3: Yes? I did. Let me ask you this what Hunter
Speaker 3: Biden's going to be sentenced in December. What if Trump
Speaker 3: came out and said he's had an addiction problem, He's
Speaker 3: had many demons, he's been a troubled kid. I'm going
Speaker 3: to pardon him.
Speaker 5: Oh, he's a trouble He's a troubled kid. Right, he's
Speaker 5: a kid, he's a middle aged man.
Speaker 3: If Trump pardoned him, what I'm saying, I hope not.
Speaker 2: I hold on, listen to the question, dot brost to
Speaker 2: question and then get the answer. We know you hope not.
Speaker 2: Go ahead down.
Speaker 3: Okay. So what I'm saying is that's the kind of
Speaker 3: out of the box thinking I think people are looking
Speaker 3: for from not only Trump, but also from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: Who's willing to put their money with him out is
Speaker 3: who's willing to really truly try and take the country forward,
Speaker 3: throwing olive branch out there. I know it's not in
Speaker 3: Trump's DNA. It's probably not in Kamal Harris's DNA quite
Speaker 3: frankly either, But I mean those are the kinds of
Speaker 3: magnanimous gestures that could really catch people's attention and then
Speaker 3: from a poster standpoint, maybe improve his favorability his likability
Speaker 3: going forward as he takes office.
Speaker 2: It also might help him with the charges he's facing
Speaker 2: the state.
Speaker 5: I'm eighty nine years old. No forgiveness for Hunter, he's
Speaker 5: been taking paola for years.
Speaker 2: Oh, Dot, you got you got it in. I think
Speaker 2: I think you're a no. Definitely we'll put you down
Speaker 2: as a no.
Speaker 4: Thank you God.
Speaker 2: All right, I have a great night, Dave paaleelogus. We're
Speaker 2: out of dime. I thought Dot would be quicker as always.
Speaker 2: Thanks man, you did a great job. Your your reputation
Speaker 2: is enhanced once again because you and Spencer Kimball my
Speaker 2: two favorite posters here in the Northeast and John Zogby
Speaker 2: I think, did a pretty good job. And uh, you
Speaker 2: get some rest now. We'll probably you're back in this
Speaker 2: polls pretty pretty soon, right.
Speaker 3: Will We'll be doing our first post election pull in December,
Speaker 3: so uh, you know, little R and R in advance
Speaker 3: of that, and then uh, we'll see what kinds of
Speaker 3: sentiments people have going into the new year twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Your pre Christmas pool, Thanks Dave, you got it alright. Well,
Speaker 2: so those are you in the lines? Stay there, We're
Speaker 2: going to talk politics for the rest of the night.
Speaker 2: If you're not there, dial in, coming back on night Side.