WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.560 --> 00:00:05.120 It's night Side with Dan Ray, w BZ Constance met 2 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:08.000 Radio bro. 3 00:00:08.160 --> 00:00:11.839 Welcome back. Tonight is the night after the big day, 4 00:00:12.039 --> 00:00:14.759 the election of twenty twenty four. Boy, you know, we 5 00:00:14.839 --> 00:00:19.800 waited for that for months and finally it was upon us, 6 00:00:19.960 --> 00:00:22.800 and everybody was concerned it was going to take several days, 7 00:00:23.800 --> 00:00:26.800 and it didn't. It took several hours. But by five 8 00:00:26.839 --> 00:00:31.239 point thirty this morning, everyone agreed, well everyone it seems 9 00:00:31.280 --> 00:00:34.280 to have agreed that Donald Trump had won the Electoral 10 00:00:34.359 --> 00:00:36.920 College with over two hundred and seventy votes, and now 11 00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:41.560 apparently he is still leading on the popular vote and 12 00:00:41.640 --> 00:00:47.280 he is stunning reversal for Donald Trump, I will admit, 13 00:00:48.399 --> 00:00:52.079 as one of my listeners challenged me today. Yeah, I 14 00:00:52.359 --> 00:00:54.840 said all along, I did not think that Donald Trump 15 00:00:54.920 --> 00:00:58.119 could be elected in a one on one face off 16 00:00:58.119 --> 00:01:00.280 with the Democrat. I knew that he would win the 17 00:01:00.280 --> 00:01:03.039 the Republican nomination if he wanted it. I think that 18 00:01:04.560 --> 00:01:09.799 I questioned his willingness or his unwillingness to campaign with 19 00:01:09.920 --> 00:01:13.200 Nikki Haley or invite her onto the campaign trail. But 20 00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:17.560 you gotta give it to the guy. He put together. 21 00:01:17.599 --> 00:01:23.840 He cobbled together a coalition that I think is a 22 00:01:24.079 --> 00:01:27.920 has the potential of basically changing the political landscape in 23 00:01:27.959 --> 00:01:30.680 this country for years ahead. So who better to join 24 00:01:30.719 --> 00:01:33.640 me tonight to talk about it than one of my 25 00:01:33.879 --> 00:01:38.840 favorite posters, Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University. Dave, welcome back. 26 00:01:39.280 --> 00:01:41.319 How many hours sleep have you had in the last 27 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:42.159 forty eight hours? 28 00:01:44.640 --> 00:01:46.879 Four hours? Dan, It's great to be back. 29 00:01:47.680 --> 00:01:51.959 Wow. When did you think that this was You know, 30 00:01:52.040 --> 00:01:55.439 everybody was saying it's going to be really close, and 31 00:01:55.640 --> 00:01:58.560 my concern was that we would have another one of 32 00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:01.120 these elections that ended up in court and we were 33 00:02:01.159 --> 00:02:04.400 going to be challenging, you know, like two thousand hanging 34 00:02:04.560 --> 00:02:09.520 chads or twenty twenty when there were sixty one cases 35 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:13.719 and allegations of fraud, none of which proved to be 36 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:18.599 to be true. When did you think that looks like 37 00:02:20.039 --> 00:02:22.360 Donald Trump's going to win? At what point last night? 38 00:02:22.439 --> 00:02:24.599 What was the what were the signs that you were 39 00:02:24.599 --> 00:02:27.280 seeing early? If they were signs you were seeing early. 40 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:31.360 The first wave I had was around nine thirty was 41 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:35.599 relatively early because I was watching New Hampshire and my 42 00:02:35.719 --> 00:02:39.080 whole theory was that New Hampshire was the canary in 43 00:02:39.120 --> 00:02:44.919 the coal mine. If Harris won New Hampshire by ten 44 00:02:45.039 --> 00:02:47.800 or twelve points. It was going to be a blue wave. 45 00:02:48.560 --> 00:02:51.400 If Harris lost New Hampshire, are only won by one 46 00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:55.560 to four points. That was the signal to me that 47 00:02:55.759 --> 00:02:59.599 I should then look at Virginia, which was close, Minnesota 48 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:03.199 which was close. And so when you piece together those 49 00:03:03.319 --> 00:03:07.120 data points, it informed me that there was trouble ahead 50 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:11.039 for the Harris team in the rust belt states. 51 00:03:11.960 --> 00:03:15.039 Yeah, I'm looking at the map, and I'm sure you 52 00:03:15.080 --> 00:03:16.759 don't need to look at the map. That's what you 53 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:20.080 do for a living, so you're but it is. Obviously 54 00:03:21.639 --> 00:03:26.039 Harris carried New England, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, 55 00:03:27.520 --> 00:03:31.879 and Virginia, so a slice of the northeast, the coastal northeast. 56 00:03:32.319 --> 00:03:39.159 But President elect Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. He repeated 57 00:03:39.199 --> 00:03:43.159 what he did in twenty sixteen, and then he you know, 58 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:47.439 not only did they win Ohio, but they flipped a 59 00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:50.120 Senate seed. It looks like they're going to flip a 60 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:52.680 Senate seat in Montana. They flipped a Senate seat and 61 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:56.840 meaning the Republicans in West Virginia. This was a great 62 00:03:56.919 --> 00:03:59.280 night for the Republicans. In my sense is that they 63 00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:01.159 very well made hold on to their lead in the 64 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:04.800 House at this point. What's your take on that? Do 65 00:04:04.800 --> 00:04:07.719 you have a strong feeling as to what's going to 66 00:04:07.759 --> 00:04:09.560 happen either in the Senate of the House. I think 67 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:12.360 they could have fifty three Senate seats when all of 68 00:04:12.400 --> 00:04:13.080 a said and done. 69 00:04:13.960 --> 00:04:17.120 Oh, the Senate is for sure Republican, I think, and 70 00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:21.000 the House is leaning that way, which you're right about 71 00:04:21.040 --> 00:04:24.800 the map. The only blue that you see on the 72 00:04:24.839 --> 00:04:32.759 map is the northeast, with Virginia at the west, Washington, Oregon, California, 73 00:04:33.560 --> 00:04:38.879 and then two clumps of two states Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado, 74 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:42.000 New Mexico. That's it. Everything else is red. 75 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:45.000 You can throw in Hawaii there as well, but Hawaii 76 00:04:45.040 --> 00:04:50.439 and Alaska have always split one. Hawaii's Democratic, Alaska is Republican. 77 00:04:51.000 --> 00:04:58.160 So my understanding is that from a statistical point of view, 78 00:04:58.680 --> 00:05:02.759 and I know that bragging is not something that you 79 00:05:02.879 --> 00:05:08.199 do real much. You're a pretty quiet guy. But uh, 80 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:13.160 with the you pretty much were seven for seven within 81 00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:16.920 the margin of era on you know, on Michigan and 82 00:05:17.000 --> 00:05:20.720 Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and bell Weathers as well. I mean 83 00:05:21.079 --> 00:05:26.399 Wisconsin statewide, you had a Trump for one percent and 84 00:05:26.680 --> 00:05:28.360 and I guess it turned out to be Trump for 85 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:33.120 one percent. You had a bell Weather in Door County 86 00:05:33.839 --> 00:05:39.600 in Wisconsin, which you had Harris plus three. I think 87 00:05:39.680 --> 00:05:42.040 that now has gone to Trump. If I'm not mistaken, 88 00:05:42.199 --> 00:05:44.360 is that there have been a late change there tonight 89 00:05:46.560 --> 00:05:51.720 and Door County in Wisconsin. 90 00:05:54.279 --> 00:05:55.160 I don't think so. 91 00:05:56.199 --> 00:05:59.319 Okay, I thought I heard. I thought I heard one 92 00:05:59.360 --> 00:06:03.480 of the network reporters saying that that was the big 93 00:06:04.439 --> 00:06:07.240 bell Weather County. But Michigan state wide, you had it 94 00:06:07.319 --> 00:06:12.759 as a flat footed tie and you had Trump. It 95 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:14.759 turns out Trump won by about one and a half, 96 00:06:14.879 --> 00:06:17.800 but that was well within the margin of era. Pennsylvania 97 00:06:17.959 --> 00:06:21.519 you had it as a tie. Trump was two. Trump 98 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:29.160 is always underrated. You were as close as anyone. There 99 00:06:29.199 --> 00:06:31.360 really is a hitting Trump vote out there. At least 100 00:06:31.439 --> 00:06:33.519 there wasn't this election. Am I right on that? 101 00:06:33.639 --> 00:06:37.480 Oh? Absolutely? Yeah, yeah, absolutely there was, but it wasn't 102 00:06:37.480 --> 00:06:41.120 as drastic. I mean, the polster has got skewered in 103 00:06:41.199 --> 00:06:46.360 twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and for good reason. I 104 00:06:46.399 --> 00:06:51.040 found myself answering press calls for other pollsters who weren't 105 00:06:51.079 --> 00:06:56.279 picking up the phone why polling was wrong, which is okay, 106 00:06:56.920 --> 00:06:59.600 but in this cycle, it was too bad. It was 107 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:04.519 a couple points, and it is a hidden vote. Part 108 00:07:04.560 --> 00:07:09.399 of it is due to the methodology. You know, if 109 00:07:09.439 --> 00:07:13.639 you're doing a ten minute study, you tend to draw 110 00:07:13.720 --> 00:07:18.439 in more college educated and those with a master's degree 111 00:07:19.160 --> 00:07:21.319 to do a ten minute study because a lot of people, 112 00:07:21.959 --> 00:07:24.639 you know, who may have vote education training or just 113 00:07:24.639 --> 00:07:27.839 a high school diploma, they excuse themselves out of the 114 00:07:27.879 --> 00:07:30.720 screen because they say they don't think they know enough 115 00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:34.560 about the issues of the candidates, but they'll vote. 116 00:07:34.759 --> 00:07:37.040 And they know and they know who they're going to 117 00:07:37.160 --> 00:07:37.480 vote for. 118 00:07:38.600 --> 00:07:43.079 Absolutely, they take themselves out of the screen. Question. But 119 00:07:43.759 --> 00:07:46.160 and so you know, the demographics are filled by more 120 00:07:46.319 --> 00:07:50.519 educated people and that's you know, but that's an adjustment 121 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:51.720 of posters have had to make. 122 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:58.160 Okay, so you're a polster, you're not a political practitioner. 123 00:07:58.879 --> 00:08:03.399 But it seems to me if I'm wrong, please correct me. 124 00:08:03.399 --> 00:08:06.040 I would appreciate that. But this seems to me to 125 00:08:06.079 --> 00:08:10.720 be election and election which now has really changed the 126 00:08:10.839 --> 00:08:14.519 dynamic between the two parties here in America and that 127 00:08:15.199 --> 00:08:19.680 both parties have to kind of recalibrate. The Republicans have 128 00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:23.560 an easier time because they're up but the Democrats, they 129 00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:25.560 got to do a lot of soul searching when they 130 00:08:25.639 --> 00:08:29.079 look at the number of votes that they've lost amongst 131 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:34.919 Latino voters and black voters, particularly black men. Is this 132 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:37.000 a one time only or do you think this has 133 00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:39.519 implications four years, eight years from now? 134 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:44.480 It's hard to say. You know, I think you're right, though, 135 00:08:44.639 --> 00:08:50.919 both candidates underperformed in certain categories. For example, Trump underperformed 136 00:08:50.919 --> 00:08:59.279 among older voters compared to twenty twenty, and there were 137 00:08:59.399 --> 00:09:04.039 Republicans voters. Some were choice Republican voters, others were sort 138 00:09:04.039 --> 00:09:07.240 of the Liz Cheney Nikki Hayley slice of the Republican 139 00:09:08.039 --> 00:09:11.240 Party that Kamala Harris tried to pull in. The mistake 140 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:14.120 she made was that for every vote that she pulled in, 141 00:09:14.600 --> 00:09:19.000 Trump would make up that single vote someplace else. Now, 142 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:24.360 Harris underperformed in areas that were much more leveraged for Trump. 143 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:27.679 In other words, let's say you have two baskets of 144 00:09:28.200 --> 00:09:30.799 you know, you have the Tamala basket of apples and 145 00:09:30.840 --> 00:09:35.639 the Trump basket of apples. If Trump gave up an 146 00:09:35.720 --> 00:09:39.799 apple for his basket, you know, he would make it 147 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:44.240 up with another demographic. But what Trump did was he 148 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:50.320 went after Kamala Harris demographics which were leveraged, meaning Joe 149 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:53.919 Biden won Hispanics two to one in twenty twenty, which 150 00:09:53.960 --> 00:09:58.000 means for every apple a Hispanic voter that Trump put 151 00:09:58.039 --> 00:10:01.559 in his basket, Iamala Harris then had to make up 152 00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:04.000 two apples for that one to keep that two to 153 00:10:04.039 --> 00:10:08.000 one ratio of sixty five to thirty two. And then 154 00:10:08.039 --> 00:10:11.000 when it came to Black voters, for every Trump Trump 155 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:14.960 went after those young black men, for every apple well 156 00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:17.759 of young black men that Trump put in his basket, 157 00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:22.840 Kamal Harris needed seven apples to make up seven voters 158 00:10:22.879 --> 00:10:25.559 to make up for that one. So where Trump was 159 00:10:25.600 --> 00:10:29.120 stealing in the you know, the the Hispanic men and 160 00:10:29.159 --> 00:10:32.559 the and the and the black men, it wasn't Oh, 161 00:10:32.679 --> 00:10:34.679 Kamal haus could just you know, she could make up 162 00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:37.320 one vote for every vote that Trump picked up. She 163 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:39.960 had to keep that same winning ratio that Biden had 164 00:10:40.679 --> 00:10:43.320 two to one with Hispanics, seven to one with blacks, 165 00:10:43.440 --> 00:10:45.720 and she couldn't do it. There weren't enough. There weren't 166 00:10:45.799 --> 00:10:49.759 enough apples out there for her to even after the ratios. 167 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:54.639 One statistic that hit me kind of between the eyes tonight, 168 00:10:55.080 --> 00:10:59.559 as I looked was in the home state of Liz Cheney. 169 00:11:00.279 --> 00:11:04.759 Donald Trump carried that home stage seventy two, almost a 170 00:11:04.799 --> 00:11:09.240 three to one ratio, seventy two to twenty six. That's 171 00:11:10.519 --> 00:11:18.039 that's that's a pretty strong repudiation in a state that 172 00:11:18.120 --> 00:11:23.480 Liz Cheney once represented and her father has always been associated, 173 00:11:23.519 --> 00:11:27.600 well except for his time in Texas. Where does Liz 174 00:11:27.679 --> 00:11:30.039 Cheney go from here? Does she just become a Democrat 175 00:11:30.039 --> 00:11:32.840 and decide to run for office in some other state 176 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:33.799 as a Democrat? 177 00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:37.840 I mean, yeah, I really, I really don't know. Maybe 178 00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:40.759 she goes into academia, and maybe she starts her own 179 00:11:40.759 --> 00:11:47.240 consulting firm, you know, and hope that a different kind 180 00:11:47.279 --> 00:11:50.120 of Republican takes over that she's more aligned with or 181 00:11:50.159 --> 00:11:54.360 a Democrat. But I think I think what the state 182 00:11:54.440 --> 00:11:57.399 is saying when you talk about Montana, I think they're 183 00:11:57.440 --> 00:12:01.559 saying to Trump, don't blame us for for Liz Cheney's 184 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:05.159 you know, statements and activities where you mean. 185 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:09.480 Why what the state of Wyoming is Yeah? Yeah, And 186 00:12:09.519 --> 00:12:12.960 in Montana it looks as if the Republicans knocked off 187 00:12:13.679 --> 00:12:18.679 long three three term Democratic incumbent test John Tester Senator 188 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:21.679 Tester let's let's do this, Dave, I got to take 189 00:12:21.720 --> 00:12:24.519 a quick break. Let me open up the phone lines here, 190 00:12:24.600 --> 00:12:27.960 give people a question, to give people an opportunity to 191 00:12:28.000 --> 00:12:31.120 ask you any question they want about the real numbers 192 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:36.519 last night. I am really happy that this election turned 193 00:12:36.519 --> 00:12:40.960 out decisively, and I think it is a decisive election, 194 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:43.360 even though it's going to be probably fifty one forty 195 00:12:43.399 --> 00:12:47.320 seven or something like that. The fact that Trump carried 196 00:12:47.360 --> 00:12:51.960 the Electoral College as easily as he did, uh and 197 00:12:51.960 --> 00:12:56.679 and the popular vote. He's already been invited to the 198 00:12:56.679 --> 00:13:03.440 White House by President Biden. Vice President Harris delivered her 199 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:07.279 concession speech today. I think we're going to have a 200 00:13:07.320 --> 00:13:10.919 fairly quiet couple of months. And I'm stunned at that. 201 00:13:12.440 --> 00:13:14.799 But that's not the only thing that has dounne me 202 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:18.799 in the last twenty four hours. Do you have the 203 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:21.879 same feeling that I had that, hey, you know, we 204 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:25.159 got through this election as a country and maybe maybe 205 00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:29.120 just maybe we can come together and be a little 206 00:13:29.120 --> 00:13:33.399 more united, more united, or do you think that this 207 00:13:33.480 --> 00:13:36.320 divide is just a desire, that a divide that is 208 00:13:36.360 --> 00:13:37.919 going to continue on and on and on. 209 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:42.159 I'll see what happens in Congress, but I think the 210 00:13:42.200 --> 00:13:45.799 early indications were encouraging. I did watch her concession speech, 211 00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:50.919 and I've kind of sampled some of the commentary from 212 00:13:51.000 --> 00:13:54.039 both right leaning talking heads and left leaning talking heads, 213 00:13:54.399 --> 00:13:58.639 and they seem to be almost clamoring yearning for the 214 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:01.879 country coming together. You see, the left leaning talking heads 215 00:14:02.080 --> 00:14:06.759 thought that would happen under Kamala Harris. But you know, 216 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:10.120 when you see those you talked about landslide, when you 217 00:14:10.120 --> 00:14:15.159 see those kinds of numbers across so many different states, 218 00:14:16.000 --> 00:14:20.320 that sends a powerful message. And there are people who 219 00:14:20.360 --> 00:14:25.080 are in politics or politicians for a reason. They understand popularity, 220 00:14:25.159 --> 00:14:30.559 They understand polling, probably better than a lot of other people. 221 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:35.399 And when the voters have you know, exercised their right, 222 00:14:37.200 --> 00:14:41.120 you know they have to readjust they have to recalibrate 223 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:44.519 their own political philosophy and their advocacy. 224 00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:49.440 It's going to be interesting the next few weeks, and 225 00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:53.480 of course, once the president elect takes the oath of office, 226 00:14:53.519 --> 00:14:56.000 I'm sure that there'll be some actions that he takes, 227 00:14:56.039 --> 00:15:00.120 which is which will ignite a lot of passions. But 228 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:02.240 I'm sure he's going to look at those as keeping 229 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:08.440 campaign promises. So we'll see six thirty and six seven. 230 00:15:10.279 --> 00:15:12.759 We'll get a couple of calls in here for day Pailologus. 231 00:15:12.879 --> 00:15:14.720 I'm not going to hang him out to dry tonight. 232 00:15:14.799 --> 00:15:17.080 If you want to criticize posters, you can, but do 233 00:15:17.159 --> 00:15:20.879 it politely. If you want to ask him any question, again, 234 00:15:20.960 --> 00:15:23.159 I asked him to be respectful. Back on Night's side 235 00:15:23.240 --> 00:15:23.720 right after this. 236 00:15:25.480 --> 00:15:28.480 Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World 237 00:15:28.639 --> 00:15:31.720 Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio. 238 00:15:32.759 --> 00:15:35.000 All right, let's try to get some calls in here 239 00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:38.200 for your Dave Paleologus. Let's go first off to Ken 240 00:15:38.240 --> 00:15:42.480 in Florida. Ken, you first this hour with poster Dave Paleologus. 241 00:15:42.559 --> 00:15:46.240 Go ahead, Ken, Hello, Dan, Hey Dave, Dan, you forgot 242 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:47.480 to call me nostradamus. 243 00:15:47.559 --> 00:15:52.799 Ken, Well, you will always take care of that for me. 244 00:15:52.879 --> 00:15:55.200 Tell us why we're calling noster domas tonight. 245 00:15:55.440 --> 00:15:59.240 Yes, I'm not. I'm not the most modest guys. I'm sorry. 246 00:15:59.240 --> 00:15:59.720 It's David. 247 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:00.200 Yeah. 248 00:16:01.320 --> 00:16:08.240 Yes, congratulations on your polling. I find the polling to 249 00:16:08.279 --> 00:16:11.720 be fascinating. I'm kind of a political junkie by no 250 00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:14.960 means an expert, And what I was predicting with Dan, 251 00:16:16.000 --> 00:16:19.480 what I was watching is the change in the demographics. Well, first, 252 00:16:19.480 --> 00:16:23.200 of all her policies. Well, she didn't really have any policies, 253 00:16:23.200 --> 00:16:26.000 did she. You know, she flipped blop and everything. So 254 00:16:26.480 --> 00:16:30.000 I thought that most Americans, the majority of Americans, would 255 00:16:30.000 --> 00:16:34.440 see past that. And also I saw the shift in demographics, 256 00:16:34.480 --> 00:16:38.919 whether it was you know, African American men, latinos. 257 00:16:39.039 --> 00:16:39.519 I live in. 258 00:16:39.480 --> 00:16:42.879 Florida, I'm formerly from Massachusetts. But I saw a lot 259 00:16:42.879 --> 00:16:46.320 of changes in the demographics. So that's why I thought 260 00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:50.600 he would win both the popular vote in the electoral college. 261 00:16:51.080 --> 00:16:54.840 But certainly I didn't see the blue wall caving in 262 00:16:54.960 --> 00:16:58.519 like it did. So I'm curious about what you think 263 00:16:58.519 --> 00:17:01.519 about how he did so well in that blue wall. 264 00:17:04.039 --> 00:17:07.839 That's a great question. And congratulations for predicting the popular vote. 265 00:17:07.839 --> 00:17:11.680 That's that's terrific. I mean, it's almost a given that 266 00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:15.920 Democrats win the popular vote. That can either win the 267 00:17:15.960 --> 00:17:19.720 electoral College or lose electoral college. But to your point, 268 00:17:19.920 --> 00:17:23.880 so take Michigan and Detroit, which each of twelve percent black. 269 00:17:24.880 --> 00:17:28.160 For in terms of likely voters, what we knew is 270 00:17:28.200 --> 00:17:33.559 that black likely voters ages eighteen to thirty four were 271 00:17:33.640 --> 00:17:39.480 defecting to either Cornell West, Jill Stein Trump or weren't 272 00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:44.000 going to vote overall Black men and the black population 273 00:17:44.240 --> 00:17:47.720 voted overwhelmingly for Harris. But as I said, in the 274 00:17:47.759 --> 00:17:53.519 exit polling, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the exit polling 275 00:17:53.599 --> 00:17:57.359 showed Biden winning black voters ninety two to seven. So 276 00:17:57.559 --> 00:17:59.640 I saw the young, when I saw the young black 277 00:17:59.680 --> 00:18:03.160 men is coming in at eighteen, nineteen twenty, exactly, I 278 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:08.440 knew that that seven percent was going to be you know, 279 00:18:08.960 --> 00:18:12.519 blown away in terms of the black vote. And she 280 00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:16.720 won the black vote handily, but she couldn't repeat the 281 00:18:16.799 --> 00:18:20.480 ninety two to seven advantage, and therefore she couldn't carry 282 00:18:20.519 --> 00:18:26.720 that Detroit Wayne County advantage across Michigan or the Philadelphia, 283 00:18:27.480 --> 00:18:33.799 you know, Delaware County advantage across Pennsylvania. And that's how 284 00:18:34.079 --> 00:18:37.720 you know, and they're just there. There wasn't a big 285 00:18:37.839 --> 00:18:44.279 enough margin in those blue cities to sustain itself across. 286 00:18:43.920 --> 00:18:47.720 The Let me jump in, why was it then that 287 00:18:47.880 --> 00:18:53.279 black men supported an older white candidate in Joe Biden 288 00:18:53.480 --> 00:18:58.640 four years ago and turned their backs on a younger 289 00:18:59.759 --> 00:19:03.720 woman of mixed mixed heritage. But you know, her dad 290 00:19:03.759 --> 00:19:05.880 was Jamaican, certainly identified as black. 291 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:13.319 The economy, okay, the economy, all right, yeah, I mean 292 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:17.400 polling supports that. Yeah, Guster Domas is right. The polling 293 00:19:17.440 --> 00:19:22.680 supports because he's right, because people were saying in the 294 00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:27.200 polling they weren't looking at issues like abortion rights. Abortion 295 00:19:27.359 --> 00:19:31.480 rights was important to young women, young black women, and 296 00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:35.240 young Hispanic women, but not to young black men and 297 00:19:35.319 --> 00:19:39.000 young Hispanic men. And you know, I also talked to 298 00:19:39.039 --> 00:19:42.279 our kind of product, the Detroit Free Press, and he 299 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:48.319 was saying that there was this bougie personality that he 300 00:19:48.400 --> 00:19:51.240 was picking up in churches and in the black community 301 00:19:51.319 --> 00:19:56.279 where black black men just they couldn't identify with her 302 00:19:56.599 --> 00:20:01.319 as being Philly or Detroit that they saw they saw 303 00:20:01.400 --> 00:20:05.119 her as more upper middle class, and there was almost 304 00:20:05.480 --> 00:20:09.400 a class divided within the black community. And that didn't 305 00:20:09.400 --> 00:20:13.640 help matters when you add that into the economy and 306 00:20:13.640 --> 00:20:15.359 immigration as the top two issues. 307 00:20:16.279 --> 00:20:18.400 Did they know she was raised middle class? Did you 308 00:20:18.440 --> 00:20:20.599 know that? 309 00:20:20.720 --> 00:20:23.119 Oh? Sure, sure in every speech. 310 00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:26.000 I mean so again my point again, I'm a novice, 311 00:20:26.039 --> 00:20:30.160 you're an expert. I just watched when if you calculate 312 00:20:30.920 --> 00:20:35.000 that shift in demographics in each major city around the country, 313 00:20:35.200 --> 00:20:37.839 I said, he's going to win the popular vote. You know, 314 00:20:38.519 --> 00:20:41.279 even in blue states, he's going to pick up more votes. 315 00:20:41.480 --> 00:20:42.319 So that's why. 316 00:20:43.839 --> 00:20:45.480 You should have bet some money on that. You'd be 317 00:20:45.519 --> 00:20:46.400 a rich man tonight. 318 00:20:48.079 --> 00:20:50.880 Come into Vegas odds. I said Trump's gonna win. Look 319 00:20:50.920 --> 00:20:51.480 at Vegas. 320 00:20:51.519 --> 00:20:51.720 I go. 321 00:20:51.880 --> 00:20:54.640 I know, but I'm allowed to gambler, so I didn't. 322 00:20:55.359 --> 00:21:01.079 All right, thank you ken Aka, appreciate it. 323 00:21:02.039 --> 00:21:05.200 Future Dan that and no, thank you sir for your polling. 324 00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:07.839 You your you have a Do you have a web? 325 00:21:08.160 --> 00:21:10.000 Can we find your website or anything? Or where are 326 00:21:10.039 --> 00:21:10.759 you on the internet? 327 00:21:11.559 --> 00:21:14.839 Yeah? Sure, it's suffolk s U F f O LK 328 00:21:15.119 --> 00:21:19.480 dot E d U slash s U p r C. 329 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:23.000 And that gives the latest polls. We have all the 330 00:21:23.039 --> 00:21:25.680 top ranked posters. Any of the posters on the lifts 331 00:21:25.680 --> 00:21:27.680 are really good to look at. There's a lot of 332 00:21:27.720 --> 00:21:31.279 good folks on there and uh and some of the 333 00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:33.200 upcoming polls are also on there. 334 00:21:33.079 --> 00:21:35.519 And maybe Dan can list that because I'm still tired. 335 00:21:35.559 --> 00:21:37.599 I was up till three thirty, and I was you 336 00:21:37.640 --> 00:21:39.920 shouldn't be drinking scotch at three thirty, but I was. 337 00:21:40.000 --> 00:21:42.079 And I'm very tired. I'm going to bed now with 338 00:21:42.160 --> 00:21:45.079 gator ring. So maybe Dank can listen link that somewhere. 339 00:21:46.359 --> 00:21:48.359 Send me an send me an email tomorrow and I 340 00:21:48.359 --> 00:21:51.400 will have it for you. Okay, well, all right, thank you, 341 00:21:51.519 --> 00:21:55.200 great you again. I know that's that's suffolk dot E 342 00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:57.799 d U. And what is the the additional. 343 00:21:58.400 --> 00:22:02.240 It's a slash up r C, which is an acronym 344 00:22:02.279 --> 00:22:06.880 Pacific University Political Research Center supr su PRC. 345 00:22:07.079 --> 00:22:10.480 Okay, we're past the news here, we have the news. 346 00:22:10.519 --> 00:22:12.000 Let's take the news. Can you stick with me for 347 00:22:12.000 --> 00:22:12.720 one more segment? 348 00:22:13.400 --> 00:22:14.000 Sure? 349 00:22:14.759 --> 00:22:17.279 I know you've had a long, long a couple of nights. Well, 350 00:22:17.319 --> 00:22:20.000 you've got along a few weeks. I know I have 351 00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:22.720 another question coming back, but we also have other callers 352 00:22:22.799 --> 00:22:26.759 six and six, one, seven, nine, three, one tenth thirty. 353 00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:29.880 We're gonna be talking politics all night. Uh. We are 354 00:22:29.960 --> 00:22:32.079 fortunate enough to have Dave Paleo Logus with us for 355 00:22:32.119 --> 00:22:34.160 a little while longer. Feel free if you want to 356 00:22:34.160 --> 00:22:37.759 ask a question of somebody who really studies this not 357 00:22:37.839 --> 00:22:40.519 only during the election season, but that is his profession 358 00:22:40.599 --> 00:22:43.480 and no one does it better. He and Spencer Kimball. 359 00:22:44.079 --> 00:22:47.279 We gave Spencer a lot of kudos for his poll 360 00:22:47.359 --> 00:22:50.000 on Iowa, which he never got credit for. I know 361 00:22:50.079 --> 00:22:53.799 you credited him, but uh, the Boston pollsters had a 362 00:22:53.839 --> 00:22:57.079 pretty good, pretty good election night, that's for sure. Between 363 00:22:57.079 --> 00:22:58.599 the two of you. We'll be back at nice that 364 00:22:58.680 --> 00:23:01.799 with Dave Paleo Logus and more phone calls right after this. 365 00:23:03.000 --> 00:23:09.160 You're on Night Side with Dan Ray. I'm Boston's news Radio. 366 00:23:09.240 --> 00:23:11.920 All right, let's get more calls in here. Going to 367 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:14.599 go to Jason in nor would Jason You're on with 368 00:23:15.279 --> 00:23:18.440 Dave Paleo Logus go right ahead. Got a question for 369 00:23:18.839 --> 00:23:19.599 Dave the pollster. 370 00:23:20.319 --> 00:23:23.519 Yes, I do have a question. It's a real treat 371 00:23:23.640 --> 00:23:29.279 to have such a skilled and clear spoken pollster. 372 00:23:30.039 --> 00:23:31.480 And that's a great poster. 373 00:23:33.319 --> 00:23:38.240 I'm really enjoying what he has to say. Uh, And 374 00:23:38.839 --> 00:23:42.559 like probably everybody else in the country, I'm craving some 375 00:23:42.839 --> 00:23:47.599 unity here going forward. And I wonder if he could 376 00:23:47.640 --> 00:23:54.079 comment prospectively from a polster's point of view on I 377 00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:57.160 have three issues here. Maybe he would comment, don't choose 378 00:23:57.200 --> 00:23:58.319 one or comment on. 379 00:23:58.319 --> 00:23:59.880 All free give it a shot. 380 00:24:00.279 --> 00:24:03.960 What are the prospects for these issues resulting in more 381 00:24:04.119 --> 00:24:12.640 rankor and divisiveness or possibly leading to unity. So President 382 00:24:12.640 --> 00:24:16.799 elect Trump has made two promises, among as many others, 383 00:24:17.480 --> 00:24:22.160 mass deportations. I'd be curious if David would like to 384 00:24:22.240 --> 00:24:26.680 comment on the prospects of unity or divisiveness around that one. 385 00:24:27.200 --> 00:24:29.759 Budget cuts. I think he made that promise for the 386 00:24:29.759 --> 00:24:33.000 first time early this morning in his speech. I don't 387 00:24:33.039 --> 00:24:37.559 recall him making any comments about paying down the deficit, 388 00:24:38.119 --> 00:24:42.400 but paying down the deficit will require budget cuts. And 389 00:24:42.519 --> 00:24:46.960 the third issue is related to abortion. I think the 390 00:24:47.359 --> 00:24:51.359 abortion is much less divisive now at the federal level 391 00:24:51.400 --> 00:24:55.079 because it's off the table at the federal level. However, 392 00:24:55.880 --> 00:25:00.359 if it's both houses of Congress are Republican controlled, I 393 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:04.400 think it's inevitable that early on it will come into 394 00:25:04.480 --> 00:25:07.960 play an attempt to cut all the funding for planned parently. 395 00:25:08.759 --> 00:25:10.680 So those are the three questions. I don't know. 396 00:25:10.680 --> 00:25:13.799 Why don't we take them one at a time? I hope, Dave, 397 00:25:13.839 --> 00:25:18.000 I hope you were taking notes here. 398 00:25:18.039 --> 00:25:19.119 Where should we start in? 399 00:25:21.000 --> 00:25:23.079 I guess you can start with the abortion issue. I mean, 400 00:25:23.079 --> 00:25:28.480 the abortion vote didn't turn out nearly as dramatically as 401 00:25:29.000 --> 00:25:33.680