WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:02.640 The best thing that meme coins did for us is 2 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:06.799 they showed us how trad fi can work. When Trump 3 00:00:06.879 --> 00:00:10.320 introduced the meme coin, it was the most scalable transaction 4 00:00:10.439 --> 00:00:12.039 processing launch ever. 5 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:14.519 Bill, What are your thoughts on the banks? They're fighting back. 6 00:00:14.599 --> 00:00:17.839 They're trying to disrupt your ability to earn yield on 7 00:00:17.879 --> 00:00:20.640 crypto platforms like Avron. They're also trying to push back 8 00:00:20.640 --> 00:00:21.079 on DeFi. 9 00:00:21.199 --> 00:00:26.079 It will be a fight to the death and probably theirs. 10 00:00:28.519 --> 00:00:30.960 This episode is brought to you by Treasure. Treasure makes 11 00:00:31.000 --> 00:00:34.560 beautifully crafted hardware wallets that allow you to easily and 12 00:00:34.679 --> 00:00:37.719 safely store your crypto assets. 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So they support coins on the institutional 22 00:01:08.959 --> 00:01:12.879 side where you have tokenization of different assets and much more. 23 00:01:13.079 --> 00:01:15.719 And they even offer a great service that helps you 24 00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:18.079 to get your treasure device set up. You get one 25 00:01:18.120 --> 00:01:20.920 on one customer support from their team, so you can 26 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:23.159 check that out as well. So once again, I'm a 27 00:01:23.200 --> 00:01:25.519 big fan of this hardware wallet. So if you'd like 28 00:01:25.560 --> 00:01:29.560 to learn more, visit the link in the description. Hey, folks, 29 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:32.799 welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward, 30 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.280 and joining me today is Bill Barhd who is the 31 00:01:35.359 --> 00:01:38.920 founder and CEO of Abra. Bill, great to have you. 32 00:01:39.560 --> 00:01:40.760 Good to be here, Tony, Good to see you. 33 00:01:41.239 --> 00:01:43.680 Yeah. Bill, I thought of you in getting you on 34 00:01:43.719 --> 00:01:46.200 the pod because you've been in this market for a 35 00:01:46.280 --> 00:01:48.000 very long time and I certainly want to get your 36 00:01:48.040 --> 00:01:51.319 expertise and your plethora of knowledge to weigh in on 37 00:01:51.359 --> 00:01:54.079 what's happening with bitcoin. Obviously we're seeing a bit of 38 00:01:54.120 --> 00:01:56.519 an uptick here at the beginning of twenty twenty six. 39 00:01:56.560 --> 00:01:58.239 But I wonder if you can go back to Q 40 00:01:58.280 --> 00:02:00.920 four and what happened in October or was that the 41 00:02:00.959 --> 00:02:02.200 top of the market for bitcoin. 42 00:02:03.959 --> 00:02:06.599 It was not the top of the market, but by 43 00:02:06.719 --> 00:02:08.719 top of the market, I assume you mean like some 44 00:02:08.840 --> 00:02:12.360 kind of cycle. I don't think so. I think I 45 00:02:12.400 --> 00:02:14.719 think it was a confluence of a lot of things 46 00:02:15.400 --> 00:02:17.960 all happening at the same time, and then it was 47 00:02:18.039 --> 00:02:21.960 exacerbated by some issues that finance had that they've apparently 48 00:02:22.360 --> 00:02:25.719 rectified since with you know, with some exchange pricing and 49 00:02:25.960 --> 00:02:29.919 some oracle issues that led to some cascading selling. You know, 50 00:02:30.080 --> 00:02:33.960 it's crypto, right, soah, it just it never just drizzles. 51 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:37.840 It always has to pour. So so yeah, I can 52 00:02:37.879 --> 00:02:40.479 talk about the liquidity issues and other things happening and 53 00:02:40.520 --> 00:02:44.159 expectations and you know why gold was leading, and we've 54 00:02:44.199 --> 00:02:46.280 seen this before. It looks a lot like twenty twenty. Actually, 55 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:49.000 you know, if you if you look at what happened 56 00:02:49.000 --> 00:02:51.599 back then going into twenty one, gold led the rally, 57 00:02:51.639 --> 00:02:54.680 and then going into later that year, you know, crypto 58 00:02:54.759 --> 00:02:56.879 took over first Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and then all time 59 00:02:56.919 --> 00:03:02.639 and epic run. So so it feels era similar. You know. 60 00:03:02.879 --> 00:03:05.879 Maybe people are a little concerned in the in the 61 00:03:05.879 --> 00:03:08.120 broader macro sense about what Supreme Court is going to 62 00:03:08.159 --> 00:03:10.360 say about tariffs, but I don't think it really matters 63 00:03:10.360 --> 00:03:11.919 at the end of the day. The Fed, the Fed's 64 00:03:11.919 --> 00:03:16.599 got a print nobody. I shouldn't say nobody, Uh let me, 65 00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:21.120 let me be more precise. Demand for long dated treasuries 66 00:03:21.199 --> 00:03:25.280 is probably going to fall this year, which means that 67 00:03:25.319 --> 00:03:28.639 the Fed is going to have to accelerate quantitative easing 68 00:03:28.719 --> 00:03:32.199 in order to get long term rates down. That's my 69 00:03:32.520 --> 00:03:36.400 kind of base case. That, combined with the treasuries that 70 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:40.120 are already buying, the lower interest rates that we're seeing 71 00:03:40.759 --> 00:03:44.840 will probably push push rates lower and dramatically increase the 72 00:03:44.879 --> 00:03:48.120 money supply, which will really have an outsized impact on 73 00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:52.680 tech stocks. Crypto. I think all coins, particularly the l 74 00:03:52.719 --> 00:03:54.639 ones I shouldn't say alquins, the l ones are going 75 00:03:54.719 --> 00:03:56.840 to have an epic year, in my opinion, certainly have 76 00:03:57.240 --> 00:03:59.280 a you know, better year than last year, which couldn't 77 00:03:59.280 --> 00:04:01.800 have been any worse. So actually that's not true. It 78 00:04:01.840 --> 00:04:05.000 could have been worse. But but but I guess if 79 00:04:05.039 --> 00:04:07.199 you're holding a large bag of l One's, it probably 80 00:04:07.240 --> 00:04:08.960 doesn't feel like it could have been worse. But trust me, 81 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:11.319 it could have been a lot worse. But I think 82 00:04:11.400 --> 00:04:12.960 that's in the past now, and I do think we're 83 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:18.480 going to see liquidity driven run where value catches up 84 00:04:19.079 --> 00:04:22.160 to price or price catches up to value is more 85 00:04:22.160 --> 00:04:25.639 accurate in this case, just based upon the available liquidity. 86 00:04:25.639 --> 00:04:28.920 I think you're going to see stimulus checks from this administration, 87 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:33.480 which is interesting. You know, they're talking about confiscating thirty 88 00:04:33.519 --> 00:04:35.439 million barrels of oil to the benefit of both the 89 00:04:35.439 --> 00:04:39.040 American and Venezuela and public, which is obviously meant to 90 00:04:39.639 --> 00:04:43.920 you know, push rates down to basically create a forecast 91 00:04:43.959 --> 00:04:47.399 of GDP growth because there's more cheap oil in the system, 92 00:04:47.519 --> 00:04:51.480 you know. So everything points to all of the things 93 00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:55.759 that were teed up in twenty twenty five leading to 94 00:04:56.879 --> 00:04:59.759 you know, more money in the so called system in 95 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:03.519 twenty twenty six. And our base case, like I said, 96 00:05:03.639 --> 00:05:07.040 is we end up buying a significantly higher percentage of 97 00:05:07.079 --> 00:05:09.839 our debt than we have the last couple of years 98 00:05:09.879 --> 00:05:13.079 because of you know, higher rates and the desire for 99 00:05:13.160 --> 00:05:16.079 FED to shrink their balance sheet. That's in the past. 100 00:05:15.800 --> 00:05:18.480 Now, so Bill, we know history doesn't often repeat, but 101 00:05:18.480 --> 00:05:20.759 it does rhyme. There are a lot of people who 102 00:05:20.839 --> 00:05:24.120 are saying, what Tony or Bill, what about the four 103 00:05:24.160 --> 00:05:26.639 year cycle? What about the number of days and that 104 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:30.439 took place around October? What about the bearish divergence on 105 00:05:30.480 --> 00:05:33.879 the weekly chart of the monthly mac D flipping red. 106 00:05:34.279 --> 00:05:36.759 So I wonder if I would get you could get 107 00:05:36.800 --> 00:05:39.120 your perspective on that, because you have these two things 108 00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:41.399 on a scale. Here. I agree with you. On the macro. 109 00:05:41.639 --> 00:05:43.800 All these things set up and it looks like twenty twenty, 110 00:05:44.000 --> 00:05:46.759 but yet the charts are screaming, you know, certain things. 111 00:05:47.040 --> 00:05:49.720 Yeah, So four year cycle is a tough one because 112 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:51.360 there was a few things that were happening at the 113 00:05:51.360 --> 00:05:54.639 same time. There was a fed cycle right where you 114 00:05:54.639 --> 00:05:59.160 could basically look at a long term chart of long 115 00:05:59.240 --> 00:06:02.560 term interest rate and it looked like a precipitous path 116 00:06:03.120 --> 00:06:06.160 to zero, right, And we all thought, well, rates can't 117 00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:08.560 go below zero. And during COVID we saw that, you know, 118 00:06:08.680 --> 00:06:12.000 effective rates could go below zero, just like bond price. 119 00:06:12.399 --> 00:06:16.439 Oil prices were negative for hot minut So so that 120 00:06:16.439 --> 00:06:19.759 that's over now, okay. So that that four year cycle 121 00:06:20.439 --> 00:06:23.920 died when we printed twenty five percent of the money 122 00:06:23.959 --> 00:06:27.800 supply in eighteen months. We didn't know it at the time, sure, 123 00:06:27.839 --> 00:06:29.639 you know, I mean we'd never lived through it before, 124 00:06:29.680 --> 00:06:32.959 no one had or no one alive had, and and 125 00:06:32.959 --> 00:06:36.839 and so we didn't know. Right now we know, Okay. Second, 126 00:06:36.920 --> 00:06:40.519 I would say as it relates to bitcoins four year cycle, 127 00:06:40.600 --> 00:06:43.519 which to a degree overlapped with the money supply issues 128 00:06:43.560 --> 00:06:48.839 and treasury cycle that I mentioned. I was never a 129 00:06:49.000 --> 00:06:52.360 huge believer. You couldn't deny that there were a few 130 00:06:52.439 --> 00:06:55.600 data points that clearly said we were in this kind 131 00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:58.920 of you know, sine wave cycle based upon the havings, 132 00:06:58.959 --> 00:07:02.600 but the samplings were just too small, right, and and 133 00:07:02.600 --> 00:07:06.240 and and so I didn't really care so much about that. 134 00:07:06.279 --> 00:07:08.759 I really cared more about the fact that you had 135 00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:13.040 limited supply. Uh, you had effectively a deflationary asset that's 136 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:16.319 being priced in an inflationary asset. When you have those 137 00:07:16.360 --> 00:07:20.519 things and you have reasonable, reasonable demand, and you're continuing 138 00:07:20.560 --> 00:07:23.519 to price something in the inflationary asset, which is the dollar, 139 00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:27.079 the price of the deflationary asset has to go up 140 00:07:27.439 --> 00:07:30.319 over time. It just does, right, And and that has 141 00:07:30.360 --> 00:07:33.680 to but but but by all viable measures, it's going 142 00:07:33.720 --> 00:07:37.040 to go up over time, and that continues to play out. 143 00:07:37.079 --> 00:07:40.439 That is that has been my core thesis for why 144 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:45.240 bitcoin is my personal beta uh and and anything I 145 00:07:45.319 --> 00:07:47.360 do in l One's those are venture bets for me, 146 00:07:47.879 --> 00:07:50.160 those are long term bets. They could go up ten x. 147 00:07:50.160 --> 00:07:52.319 This year, they could go up five x over the 148 00:07:52.360 --> 00:07:55.279 next five years. It's all good. Those are venture bets 149 00:07:55.319 --> 00:07:58.680 based upon a core thesis that I have around the 150 00:07:58.800 --> 00:08:02.959 value of of of block space plus smart contracts, you know, 151 00:08:03.079 --> 00:08:07.680 plus decentralization in the new economy. That's that's my personal thesis. 152 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:11.319 And that's different from sound money, where bitcoin it becomes 153 00:08:11.680 --> 00:08:16.040 my personal beta, you know, now and certainly forever more 154 00:08:16.079 --> 00:08:18.360 until something better comes along, which I doubt is gonna happen. 155 00:08:19.560 --> 00:08:21.720 So so a long winded way of saying, I don't 156 00:08:21.720 --> 00:08:23.639 put a lot of stock in the in the in 157 00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:28.360 the bitcoin based four year cycle. Never really did, and 158 00:08:28.399 --> 00:08:30.560 I've said that, you can go back and check back 159 00:08:30.600 --> 00:08:33.000 check me. I've said that many times. I did put 160 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:34.679 a lot of stock in the in the four year 161 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:39.320 treasury market driven cycle. But but clearly the the Fed 162 00:08:40.039 --> 00:08:43.720 killed that, you know, and and there's others that believe 163 00:08:44.000 --> 00:08:46.120 I'm not you know, enough of the weeds in in 164 00:08:46.200 --> 00:08:50.840 fixed income anymore, but but I you know, others believe 165 00:08:50.919 --> 00:08:54.159 that the cycle has just been extended by a year 166 00:08:54.240 --> 00:08:56.440 and that the you know, government had hoped that they 167 00:08:56.440 --> 00:09:01.039 would be able to uh reset know, long term borrowings 168 00:09:01.080 --> 00:09:03.399 or mid term borrowings at better rates, but they couldn't 169 00:09:03.399 --> 00:09:07.080 for myriad reasons, and that it's going to happen this year, 170 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:09.440 come hell or high water. That makes sense to me. 171 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:13.080 But the bottom line is the economy is slowing outside 172 00:09:13.080 --> 00:09:16.720 of AI, especially right pretty much everywhere outside of AI, 173 00:09:16.840 --> 00:09:20.799 the economy is slowing dramatically. You're you're still seeing lingering 174 00:09:21.200 --> 00:09:25.240 layoff effects of the high interest rates post COVID hangover. 175 00:09:26.440 --> 00:09:28.720 Everybody points to AI for that. I don't believe that's 176 00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:31.320 AI driven at all. I think it's just a hangover 177 00:09:31.480 --> 00:09:35.639 of of FED drinking the balance sheets. And like I said, 178 00:09:35.639 --> 00:09:39.159 this administration is doing everything it can to to kind 179 00:09:39.200 --> 00:09:44.279 of you know, cataract that with whatever tricks or tools 180 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:46.440 it can bring to bear off of the shelf that 181 00:09:46.480 --> 00:09:50.320 it has tag. No taxes on tips, you know, no 182 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:53.120 taxes on Social Security payments would never made sense anyway 183 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:55.480 because you're double dipping. But but but but the point, 184 00:09:55.519 --> 00:09:58.720 but the operative point being it's more money in retail 185 00:09:59.000 --> 00:10:01.320 and and our economy still retail driven at the end 186 00:10:01.320 --> 00:10:01.679 of the day. 187 00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:04.919 Yeah, absolutely, So you believe that, you know, people have 188 00:10:04.960 --> 00:10:07.759 to kind of update their mental model. They've been so 189 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:11.039 used to the small sample size of having for your cycles. 190 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:14.639 But it was the primary catalyst was liquidity or even 191 00:10:14.679 --> 00:10:18.519 the ism, and that has been delayed to your point, 192 00:10:19.200 --> 00:10:22.840 so risk assets or you know, bigcoin, all coins and 193 00:10:22.840 --> 00:10:25.000 so forth, even you know, you look at the rustle 194 00:10:25.320 --> 00:10:27.919 two thousand and all that has been kind of slowed 195 00:10:27.960 --> 00:10:30.320 down a bit. It wasn't a great year in twenty 196 00:10:30.360 --> 00:10:33.080 twenty five. But as those the liquidity and the ism 197 00:10:33.080 --> 00:10:35.720 and those things pick up, you'll see those assets follow. 198 00:10:36.320 --> 00:10:40.039 Yeah, I accept that. You know. Look, the hardest everything 199 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:42.159 you said makes a lot of sense to me. The 200 00:10:42.200 --> 00:10:45.320 hardest word in there, ironically is the word we. So 201 00:10:45.320 --> 00:10:47.919 so who is we? Right, Because at the end of 202 00:10:47.960 --> 00:10:51.320 the day, you get it. You're masterful at simplifying this 203 00:10:51.519 --> 00:10:54.799 for you know, people who are like not in the weeds. 204 00:10:55.440 --> 00:10:58.679 But the bottom line is is almost no one is 205 00:10:58.720 --> 00:11:01.879 in the weeds, and so it makes sense to us. 206 00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:03.960 We get it. You know, we're we're knee deep in 207 00:11:04.000 --> 00:11:07.600 this price expectation. But for the average investor, if you 208 00:11:07.639 --> 00:11:10.639 don't have a long term view, which is at least 209 00:11:10.679 --> 00:11:14.799 five years, you're you're not doing yourself justice and you're 210 00:11:14.840 --> 00:11:17.000 you're basically going to create a lot of heartache for 211 00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:21.679 yourself unnecessarily in my opinion, and if you can't look 212 00:11:21.720 --> 00:11:24.120 at it from that perspective, mean longer term you need 213 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:28.360 to write size your allocations in this world. And so so, 214 00:11:28.399 --> 00:11:31.440 while I agree with everything you're saying, because Bill's knee 215 00:11:31.480 --> 00:11:33.159 deep in the weeds, Tony's knee deep in the weeds, 216 00:11:33.159 --> 00:11:36.159 some of our cohort is the average listener may not be. 217 00:11:36.679 --> 00:11:39.879 And and my message to them is, look, you know, 218 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:43.039 have a longer term view. Everything should be five year 219 00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:45.840 minimum unless you're unless you're really good at trading and 220 00:11:45.879 --> 00:11:47.519 speculating and you can get in and out of day 221 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:49.480 training and all that stuff. I you know, I do that. 222 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:51.639 I don't do it anymore. It's too hard, it's too stressful. 223 00:11:51.840 --> 00:11:54.240 It's not even worth it if you look at the returns, 224 00:11:54.279 --> 00:11:57.120 it's just not worth it. Right, So, so have a 225 00:11:57.159 --> 00:12:00.039 five year, you know, maybe even longer time horizon and 226 00:12:00.519 --> 00:12:03.399 accept the fact that you know, we're spending a trillion 227 00:12:03.440 --> 00:12:07.159 dollars to service the debt and which is now bigger 228 00:12:07.159 --> 00:12:09.399 than I believe in our defense budget, and it's getting bigger, 229 00:12:09.759 --> 00:12:13.200 which means more money printing. And so I don't want 230 00:12:13.240 --> 00:12:14.840 that to be the truth, but it is the truth. 231 00:12:15.120 --> 00:12:17.399 And so if you have a long term perspective on that, 232 00:12:18.600 --> 00:12:22.519 anybody who can afford risk on assets, tech stocks, crypto 233 00:12:23.000 --> 00:12:26.919 is basically getting leverage on that system. It may be 234 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:30.080 at the expense of other people who can't, but honestly, 235 00:12:30.159 --> 00:12:32.759 right now, as a wealth manager, that's not my problem. 236 00:12:33.080 --> 00:12:36.559 My problem right now as a wealth manager is making 237 00:12:36.600 --> 00:12:39.120 money for my clients and helping my clients make money, 238 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:41.440 and that's how they should do it in my opinion 239 00:12:41.440 --> 00:12:44.559 as their fiduciary. Right I'm not giving investment advice here, 240 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:46.039 but when I'm talking to my clients, that's what I 241 00:12:46.080 --> 00:12:49.399 tell them, right And as an American for everybody else, 242 00:12:49.600 --> 00:12:52.360 I hope our government gets a shit together, but I 243 00:12:52.360 --> 00:12:54.720 don't think it's going to do. 244 00:12:54.759 --> 00:12:57.120 You think somewhere in the future, Bill, they're able to 245 00:12:57.200 --> 00:13:00.320 use this technology bitcoin, blockchain to help solve all that 246 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:04.000 fiat currency issue that there's With the combination of AI 247 00:13:04.159 --> 00:13:07.080 and maybe quantum, they're able to figure out something where 248 00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:10.120 they are not current continuing the debasement cycle over and over. 249 00:13:10.679 --> 00:13:11.559 Yeah, that's a good question. 250 00:13:12.080 --> 00:13:12.799 You know, I was. 251 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:16.360 I was having breakfast with Peter Diamanis as a good 252 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:19.159 friend of mine. Good day Peter's really in knee deep 253 00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:21.360 in the AI world. He was just coming back from 254 00:13:21.399 --> 00:13:23.679 the interview he had done with Elon and we had this 255 00:13:23.759 --> 00:13:29.080 long discussion about the intersection of crypto and AI, and I, 256 00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:31.360 you know, explaining that most of the people who are 257 00:13:31.440 --> 00:13:35.879 knee deep in AI right now don't understand where decentralization 258 00:13:36.039 --> 00:13:38.519 fits in because they're building data centers the size of 259 00:13:38.559 --> 00:13:42.200 an end right so so, but the reality is is 260 00:13:42.240 --> 00:13:46.399 that the future of agentic Web or Internet, in my opinion, 261 00:13:47.080 --> 00:13:53.879 is decentralized. And if you have an intelligent conversation with 262 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:58.799 an artificial intelligent bot about conducting transactions, the last thing 263 00:13:58.840 --> 00:14:01.840 it's going to want to do is conduct transactions and 264 00:14:02.159 --> 00:14:05.799 using an inflationary asset if it's holding that asset for 265 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:09.519 more than a week, because by definition, it's losing value 266 00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:12.879 at an exponential rate the longer it holds the asset, 267 00:14:13.480 --> 00:14:15.919 which in English means you don't want to use dollars 268 00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:19.759 if you're a smart AI bot. Now, I realize that 269 00:14:19.840 --> 00:14:22.440 this is a core thesis for Circle and tether and 270 00:14:22.480 --> 00:14:25.279 others going forward, but I'm sorry, but it's just not 271 00:14:25.320 --> 00:14:25.879 going to happen. 272 00:14:26.320 --> 00:14:26.440 Right. 273 00:14:26.879 --> 00:14:29.960 It may in the short term for ephemeral transactions, meaning 274 00:14:30.000 --> 00:14:32.600 transactions where it doesn't matter. You could trade in baseball 275 00:14:32.639 --> 00:14:34.759 cards or dollars or whatever because you're in and out quickly. 276 00:14:35.240 --> 00:14:38.840 For certain types of you know, supply chain or factoring transactions, 277 00:14:38.840 --> 00:14:41.440 that'll those will be dollars for a very or CNY 278 00:14:41.559 --> 00:14:44.320 for a very long time. And that's fine. But those 279 00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:47.399 were already dollars. That's what I'm saying, right, So, I'm 280 00:14:47.440 --> 00:14:51.720 talking about future businesses that don't exist that are going 281 00:14:51.759 --> 00:14:54.960 to be enabled by the agentic Internet, which is going 282 00:14:55.039 --> 00:14:59.919 to be infinitely bigger than today's economy, driven by robotic 283 00:15:00.120 --> 00:15:03.000 and all the exponential technologies that I'm that I'm excited about, 284 00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:06.600 and crypto plays a central role there. And you're going 285 00:15:06.679 --> 00:15:10.519 to see a plethora of digital assets enabled by these 286 00:15:10.519 --> 00:15:14.000 systems that are deflationary by nature, Bitcoin being the most 287 00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:16.519 important one. I think Bitcoin could play a significant role. 288 00:15:16.519 --> 00:15:20.240 I think Solana and seuey aptos, those type of currencies 289 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:24.240 could actually be used for ephemeral transactions themselves because they're 290 00:15:24.279 --> 00:15:25.519 inherently deflationary. 291 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:26.360 Right. 292 00:15:26.679 --> 00:15:29.600 I get the narrative of the maxis about why you 293 00:15:29.600 --> 00:15:31.440 wouldn't want to do that, and I don't agree with it. 294 00:15:31.480 --> 00:15:34.480 But I get it. But I don't think the bots 295 00:15:34.480 --> 00:15:37.559 would agree with them on this. I think I think anyway, 296 00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:41.000 the long winded way, the long new point I'm making 297 00:15:41.200 --> 00:15:45.080 is that I think that there's this coming economy that 298 00:15:45.279 --> 00:15:49.440 people don't understand yet that is so massive, uh, that 299 00:15:49.559 --> 00:15:53.759 integrates all of this exponential tech, robotics, AI, self driving cars, 300 00:15:54.600 --> 00:15:56.440 you know, home automation, all these things are going to 301 00:15:56.480 --> 00:16:00.240 be fully integrated into our lives with an AI, you know, 302 00:16:00.480 --> 00:16:02.039 a set of brains. And I think there's going to 303 00:16:02.120 --> 00:16:04.600 be lots of them, like lots of parallel matrixes that 304 00:16:04.639 --> 00:16:07.480 we have to integrate with. And and crypto is kind 305 00:16:07.519 --> 00:16:10.960 of the hard line into those those matrixes. And and 306 00:16:11.759 --> 00:16:14.159 I'm here for it, you know. And and it's it's 307 00:16:14.200 --> 00:16:18.559 it's so early in understanding that you know, even like 308 00:16:19.000 --> 00:16:23.919 the most scalable blockchains we have now are just scratching 309 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:28.200 the surface on the scalability. We need to facilitate transaction 310 00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:33.840 processing for those types of systems. And yeah, I mean, 311 00:16:33.960 --> 00:16:36.639 thank god that we have these next gen l ones 312 00:16:36.720 --> 00:16:39.320 now that I you know, they're they're awesome. 313 00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:42.440 Oh for sure. So you know, we're talking about the 314 00:16:42.440 --> 00:16:45.279 outlook for this year you know, going back to the 315 00:16:45.279 --> 00:16:48.200 thesis of central banks do going to continue printing more 316 00:16:48.279 --> 00:16:52.200 liquidity and so forth, and not guaranteed, but we expect 317 00:16:52.279 --> 00:16:55.000 risk assets and these projects and all these things to rise. 318 00:16:56.159 --> 00:16:58.799 You mentioned l ones. Uh, there's also a big narrative 319 00:16:58.840 --> 00:17:01.080 of privacy if you get your thoughts on it, you 320 00:17:01.120 --> 00:17:03.159 see it as the next big trade and and what 321 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:05.839 are some of the ones you're primarily focused on. 322 00:17:06.599 --> 00:17:10.559 Yeah, look, uh, that's a really astute comment. I think 323 00:17:10.599 --> 00:17:13.920 I think privacy is going to have its day. Uh, 324 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:17.799 so to speak, the Sioux announcement was very interesting. Obviously, 325 00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:21.039 z cash had an epic run in December. You know 326 00:17:21.160 --> 00:17:25.559 that that was remarkable just given the nature of uh, 327 00:17:26.039 --> 00:17:30.640 you know, retail excitement, the lack of retail excitement for 328 00:17:30.640 --> 00:17:34.039 for z cash for years effectively, right, and and you know, 329 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:37.279 just a few a few tweets pumped the price because 330 00:17:37.599 --> 00:17:40.799 all of a sudden, you know, privacy is a narrative, 331 00:17:40.920 --> 00:17:43.480 it's a thing, right, And so the irony is is 332 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:46.839 that you know, for me as somebody who came and 333 00:17:47.119 --> 00:17:51.160 stayed for the decentralization and for you know, the self 334 00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:55.359 sovereignty and you know, the personal agency that you know 335 00:17:55.440 --> 00:17:59.200 that that the crypto model enables and smart contracts enable. 336 00:17:59.640 --> 00:18:02.880 Uh so alarady with Bitcoin. Of course, it's cyronic to 337 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:05.920 me and that this is happening now. But I think 338 00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:08.720 you know, I I but direct to your question like that, 339 00:18:08.799 --> 00:18:11.640 the Sioux announcement was huge to me, you know, but 340 00:18:11.640 --> 00:18:14.839 but I think you're going to see everyone looking at 341 00:18:14.839 --> 00:18:19.319 this hard right like ethereums, you know, Metallic Batallics actually 342 00:18:19.799 --> 00:18:22.759 had some really interesting commentary lately because kind of in 343 00:18:22.799 --> 00:18:25.400 a it's almost like he was in a cave, you know, 344 00:18:25.519 --> 00:18:28.440 big Bear in a he's a skinny run but but 345 00:18:28.440 --> 00:18:30.440 but you know, big Bear in a cave sleeping for 346 00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:32.559 for a couple of years. But but some of the 347 00:18:32.559 --> 00:18:35.240 stuff he's been writing I actually strongly agree with. Now, 348 00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:38.640 he's backed himself into a corner with poor technology decisions 349 00:18:38.640 --> 00:18:40.160 over the years, but I think they can undo that, 350 00:18:40.200 --> 00:18:42.119 and I think they can fix that. But but I 351 00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:44.839 agree with the thesis of what he's saying. I think 352 00:18:44.920 --> 00:18:48.160 he gets z K at a fundamental level. I think 353 00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:51.839 most of the l one you know, core devs get 354 00:18:52.200 --> 00:18:54.559 z K and related text at a fundamental level. It's 355 00:18:54.599 --> 00:18:56.799 my background. I mean, I was on the SSL team 356 00:18:56.799 --> 00:18:59.319 in Netscape and you know, so that's been a passion 357 00:18:59.359 --> 00:19:02.480 of mine since I was a kid, you know. And 358 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:05.440 and so I didn't really have the terminology and the 359 00:19:05.519 --> 00:19:08.519 lingo like I do now because of crypto, mostly to 360 00:19:08.640 --> 00:19:10.480 explain all of this in a way that the non 361 00:19:10.519 --> 00:19:13.559 techies can appreciate. But when you have technology that enables, 362 00:19:14.119 --> 00:19:19.720 you know, a true libertarian self sovereign model that acts 363 00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:24.440 as a you know, a sanity check or you know, 364 00:19:24.559 --> 00:19:28.000 a liberty check almost on government policy run them UK, 365 00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:31.559 which it has for the last several years, you have 366 00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:34.319 to be excited unless you're just unless you just just 367 00:19:34.680 --> 00:19:37.599 clearly don't get it, or you have no viable assets 368 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:39.720 or believe you're never going to have any assets. And 369 00:19:40.039 --> 00:19:44.599 that's the biggest problem that we face as society today 370 00:19:44.720 --> 00:19:49.839 is there's a percentage of the West right that believes 371 00:19:49.880 --> 00:19:53.519 that they're never going to be able to participate whatever 372 00:19:53.559 --> 00:19:56.759 that means. And that's crazy. It's not crazy that they, well, 373 00:19:57.519 --> 00:19:59.519 it is crazy that they believe that, because it's not true. 374 00:19:59.640 --> 00:20:01.960 I think we're about to enter an age of abundance 375 00:20:02.680 --> 00:20:06.200 the likes of which humanity has never seen. Right, the 376 00:20:06.279 --> 00:20:08.839 last bashion of the rate of poverty in this planet 377 00:20:08.839 --> 00:20:10.839 has been going like this, right. You know. Now, now 378 00:20:10.920 --> 00:20:13.799 a lot of a lot of socialists would would have 379 00:20:13.880 --> 00:20:16.519 you believe that that's not true. I don't know what 380 00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:18.079 you can see on my screen, but I'm making a 381 00:20:18.160 --> 00:20:20.279 very you know, pretty much a straight line down. And 382 00:20:20.640 --> 00:20:23.000 you know, on the on the chart, on the line chart, 383 00:20:23.039 --> 00:20:25.200 not a lot of chart that basically shows where poverty 384 00:20:25.240 --> 00:20:27.079 is going, right, I meaning people that live on less 385 00:20:27.119 --> 00:20:29.599 than let's say ten dollars a day. We used to 386 00:20:29.640 --> 00:20:31.960 call it ten. I think they've raised it. But regardless, 387 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:34.799 the poverty rate has fallen significantly on planet Earth. 388 00:20:35.319 --> 00:20:35.480 Right. 389 00:20:35.880 --> 00:20:37.680 I spend a lot of time in Haiti. Everybody's walking 390 00:20:37.680 --> 00:20:39.880 around with an Android phone in Haiti, the poorest country 391 00:20:39.880 --> 00:20:40.880 in the Western hemisphere. 392 00:20:41.160 --> 00:20:41.359 Right. 393 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:45.519 So, so my point is, like, you know, we have 394 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:48.200 a different set of problems going forward, right, how do 395 00:20:48.240 --> 00:20:54.240 you basically give people hope that the abundance that's coming 396 00:20:54.799 --> 00:20:58.039 is going to affect them. Now, Crypto will play a 397 00:20:58.079 --> 00:21:02.119 part in that to keep hard in that. But you know, 398 00:21:02.440 --> 00:21:07.559 if if people believe that they have no money left 399 00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:10.359 at the end of the year, there's nothing that VISA 400 00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:14.480 can do to give them hope so that they go 401 00:21:14.559 --> 00:21:17.640