WEBVTT 1 00:00:30.120 --> 00:00:32.960 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander, an 2 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:36.280 Eagle one from Eagle Speak at Seer Shore your home 3 00:00:36.320 --> 00:00:39.640 for a discussion of national security issues and all things maritime. 4 00:00:40.079 --> 00:00:42.719 Good day, everybody. Glad to have you on board and 5 00:00:43.320 --> 00:00:45.280 for another edition of mid Rats. And if you are 6 00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:47.920 with us live, I would like to extend the invitation 7 00:00:48.079 --> 00:00:50.359 to you. You should be able to find the chat 8 00:00:50.439 --> 00:00:53.600 room over there on riverside. We'll be monitoring that during 9 00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:55.880 the course of the show and if there are some 10 00:00:56.000 --> 00:00:58.799 comments you would like to make, or maybe some questions 11 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:01.000 you would like for us to direct to our guests 12 00:01:01.039 --> 00:01:03.399 during the course of the next hour, that is the 13 00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:06.799 perfect place to do it. And for the next hour, 14 00:01:06.840 --> 00:01:09.040 we're going to look at a challenge that people who 15 00:01:09.040 --> 00:01:12.760 pay attention to naval matters are aware of and may 16 00:01:12.799 --> 00:01:15.319 not fully get a lot of the details that we 17 00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:17.480 want to make sure and talk about today. And that's 18 00:01:17.519 --> 00:01:20.560 not just here in the US, but across the anglosphere. 19 00:01:20.599 --> 00:01:25.640 There seems to be a systemic problem that is taking 20 00:01:25.879 --> 00:01:31.000 naval requirements and producing something that displaces holes and displaces 21 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:34.359 water and put holes next to the pier. And on 22 00:01:34.400 --> 00:01:37.719 the western side of the Atlantic, one failure LCS was 23 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:41.439 going to be corrected with a short cycled production of 24 00:01:41.480 --> 00:01:44.840 an already existing frigate design and what is now known 25 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:48.840 as the Constellation Class FFG. And we have found since 26 00:01:48.879 --> 00:01:52.079 twenty seventeen that the dream and the promise is not 27 00:01:52.239 --> 00:01:55.359 quite working out how we wanted it to be, but 28 00:01:55.359 --> 00:01:58.480 it's not alone as part of a larger systemic problem. 29 00:01:58.760 --> 00:02:01.120 And coming back to mid Rats today to talk about 30 00:02:01.159 --> 00:02:04.799 this and other related issues is doctor M. Salisbury, the 31 00:02:04.920 --> 00:02:08.960 Sea Power Research Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and 32 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:13.560 a fellow at the UK Strategic Command Defense Futures. Emma, 33 00:02:13.680 --> 00:02:14.759 welcome back to mid Rats. 34 00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:18.639 Thanks for having me back, Solids pleasure. 35 00:02:19.680 --> 00:02:22.199 Well, we appreciate you taking some time today to chat 36 00:02:22.240 --> 00:02:24.719 with us on the topic. And I guess to kick 37 00:02:24.759 --> 00:02:26.759 things off and we had you on mid Rats to 38 00:02:26.840 --> 00:02:30.000 talk about it is. You spent a lot a lot 39 00:02:30.039 --> 00:02:34.960 of time soaked in US military industrial complex, specifically the 40 00:02:35.039 --> 00:02:38.479 naval side of the house and the Littoral Combat System program, 41 00:02:38.599 --> 00:02:40.919 and just as you're starting to clear ahead and take 42 00:02:40.919 --> 00:02:43.520 a deep breath and look at the beautiful world around you, 43 00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:49.039 somebody delivered the Constellation frigate there on your front doorstep thought, 44 00:02:49.039 --> 00:02:50.400 I just talk to you a little bit. 45 00:02:50.800 --> 00:02:51.400 How did this. 46 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:55.680 Topic of this challenge that we're seeing again in the 47 00:02:55.680 --> 00:03:00.000 shipbuilding arena come to you? 48 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:06.800 Well, it's very interesting timing, as you say. I, although 49 00:03:06.840 --> 00:03:10.879 there is no shortage of terrible procurement plans in most 50 00:03:10.960 --> 00:03:14.319 of our militaries, I wasn't expecting another one quite so soon, 51 00:03:14.560 --> 00:03:17.560 especially one that was supposed to learn the lessons of LCS. 52 00:03:17.680 --> 00:03:19.719 It does give me something else to write about, which 53 00:03:19.759 --> 00:03:22.759 I'm very grateful for. And if anyone thinks there's some 54 00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:25.439 kind of conspiracy, then I couldn't possibly comment. 55 00:03:30.039 --> 00:03:32.560 Well, let's talk a little bit about the article you 56 00:03:32.719 --> 00:03:37.599 put out on a great title, Frankenfrem, how the Constellation 57 00:03:37.719 --> 00:03:40.719 class became a monster, and talk a little bit about 58 00:03:40.759 --> 00:03:45.199 the background of the frigate program and how the US 59 00:03:45.360 --> 00:03:48.840 Navy seems to have got it all screwed. 60 00:03:48.439 --> 00:03:54.759 Up well after the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, and 61 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:58.360 obviously the US Navy needs a new frigate started the 62 00:03:58.439 --> 00:04:02.000 ffg X program in twenty seventeen. So what that was 63 00:04:02.039 --> 00:04:06.199 supposed to do is to learn the lessons of the 64 00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:10.599 problems that came from the LCS program by having a 65 00:04:10.680 --> 00:04:15.319 design based on an existing frigate, So what they intended 66 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:19.399 to do was to take that design make a few tweaks, 67 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:23.759 because obviously the US Navy has certain things that it 68 00:04:23.839 --> 00:04:26.600 needs that are not present in the frem as is. 69 00:04:27.639 --> 00:04:30.360 But what they were intending to do was to make 70 00:04:30.399 --> 00:04:33.759 the whole process quicker and more streamlined by having that 71 00:04:33.800 --> 00:04:36.800 based design, making some tweaks, and then being able to 72 00:04:36.800 --> 00:04:41.000 put it into production. And given that the LCS production 73 00:04:41.199 --> 00:04:45.120 was truncated because of the problems with it, there was 74 00:04:45.120 --> 00:04:49.160 that need for a small surface warship that Constellation was 75 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:53.160 supposed to fulfill. But it just turns out that despite 76 00:04:53.160 --> 00:04:57.319 all of these good intentions, the Navy hasn't actually learned 77 00:04:57.360 --> 00:05:02.279 the lessons of the LCS. So instead of taking a 78 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:05.959 decent frigate, making a few tweaks, and then getting an 79 00:05:05.959 --> 00:05:09.639 into production, they have done exactly what they did with 80 00:05:09.720 --> 00:05:14.279 the LCS, which is just fitzing around with it, adding 81 00:05:14.319 --> 00:05:18.399 things on, not making decisions, taking things off, making it bigger, 82 00:05:18.439 --> 00:05:23.639 making and it's just turned into this lumbering program. That 83 00:05:23.720 --> 00:05:26.720 means that we just don't know when the US Navy 84 00:05:26.839 --> 00:05:29.079 is going to get frigates. And given that the US 85 00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:31.480 Navy doesn't currently have any frigates. This is quite a 86 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:35.519 large problem. 87 00:05:35.879 --> 00:05:40.120 And that's one thing that perplexed me about the whole thing. 88 00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:43.879 Is I think, as I use as a visual on 89 00:05:43.920 --> 00:05:45.519 some of the writing I do on the topic, is 90 00:05:45.519 --> 00:05:49.279 the classic Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown is. 91 00:05:49.759 --> 00:05:53.399 We knew why we had to do the Constellation class 92 00:05:53.439 --> 00:05:56.399 frigate program. It was, as you touched on and as 93 00:05:56.480 --> 00:06:00.079 most of our listeners know, is the to use a 94 00:06:00.160 --> 00:06:03.920 nice britishism, the complete dog's breakfast that we made of 95 00:06:03.959 --> 00:06:08.920 the litoral combat system. We still needed a frigate sized 96 00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:12.879 ship to do sized missions, and so we reached out 97 00:06:13.879 --> 00:06:17.000 I believe the first it was either the French or 98 00:06:17.040 --> 00:06:21.920 the Italian's commissioned their first from and twenty thirteen. In 99 00:06:21.959 --> 00:06:24.079 twenty seventeen we made the decision. So there's a few 100 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:27.519 years after commissioning we had that, and there was a 101 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:30.639 few compromises that gave the people who made lcs a 102 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:33.120 chance to repurpose that, but luckily we didn't go in 103 00:06:33.120 --> 00:06:37.279 that direction, and so the Navy made a decision. We 104 00:06:37.319 --> 00:06:40.879 had that eighty we sold it as eighty five percent commonalty, 105 00:06:41.639 --> 00:06:46.399 and then, like the plot of some b grade movie. 106 00:06:46.560 --> 00:06:49.959 We handed over the solution to a problem to the 107 00:06:50.040 --> 00:06:55.000 same people and processes that created the problem to begin with. 108 00:06:55.839 --> 00:07:00.680 And it almost seems from the cheap seats that this 109 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:04.000 system is not self aware of And you mentioned earlier 110 00:07:04.040 --> 00:07:08.399 on in your article that markmt reference learning the lessons 111 00:07:08.399 --> 00:07:11.399 of previous failures, as if none of that happened, and 112 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:14.040 they were going to make a point about bringing in 113 00:07:14.079 --> 00:07:18.360 an already designed ship. Is is that too cynical of 114 00:07:18.399 --> 00:07:22.120 a view or was there a lack of appreciation in 115 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:26.759 the Big Navy arena that in paralleling the old doing 116 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:29.879 the same thing again and expecting a different result as 117 00:07:29.879 --> 00:07:33.360 a definition of a sanity that we use the same 118 00:07:33.519 --> 00:07:37.360 people in the same processes, in the same procedures that 119 00:07:37.480 --> 00:07:39.920 brought us to a hard point again in law and behold, 120 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:42.920 where do we find ourselves in the summer twenty twenty four. 121 00:07:44.959 --> 00:07:47.879 It's really really difficult to know from the outside. So, 122 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:52.360 as you said, they originally planned for the constellation to 123 00:07:52.399 --> 00:07:55.600 have eighty five percent commonality with the FREM. It now 124 00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:59.519 has eighty five percent non commonality with the FREM. So 125 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:04.199 that shift from eighteen percent to fifteen percent, it's that 126 00:08:05.199 --> 00:08:08.240 shift that we need to think about with what's gone wrong. 127 00:08:08.399 --> 00:08:13.079 And I don't know how many of those changes were necessary, 128 00:08:13.360 --> 00:08:16.319 how many were nice to have, how many were need 129 00:08:16.360 --> 00:08:20.120 to have, But the fact that it went from one 130 00:08:20.160 --> 00:08:23.879 percentage switched around to the other shows that there is 131 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:27.120 a very serious problem here. And part of me does 132 00:08:27.199 --> 00:08:32.320 wonder whether people will had the good intentions of learning 133 00:08:32.320 --> 00:08:35.840 the lessons from the LCS. But then you think, oh, well, 134 00:08:35.879 --> 00:08:38.360 if we just add this one tweak, that won't matter, 135 00:08:38.440 --> 00:08:41.200 and we'll just add this on and maybe we'll change 136 00:08:41.960 --> 00:08:43.840 this but over here, and then well, now we need 137 00:08:43.879 --> 00:08:45.720 to make it a bit longer. And it's just all 138 00:08:45.840 --> 00:08:51.320 kind of accreting into this avalanche of changes that ended 139 00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.600 up with the point where we are today. So it 140 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:57.440 isn't necessarily done deliberately, But it may just be the 141 00:08:57.480 --> 00:09:02.120 accumulation of a small group of people or a large 142 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:05.600 group of people going through and just tweaking tweaking, tweaking 143 00:09:05.639 --> 00:09:09.440 tweaking until it becomes something completely different. But it's very 144 00:09:09.480 --> 00:09:11.480 difficult to know from the outside. I mean, I would 145 00:09:11.519 --> 00:09:15.399 be absolutely fascinated to see some kind of list of 146 00:09:15.440 --> 00:09:18.960 all of these tweaks to see how necessary they are, 147 00:09:19.200 --> 00:09:23.559 if they actually bring any operational value, or if they're 148 00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:28.039 just doing the kind of American disease of wanting things 149 00:09:28.039 --> 00:09:31.840 to be exquisite and over produced for what is actually 150 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:37.240 quite a simple task. And frigates are quite a simple thing. 151 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:41.600 And it's just feels very over designed. And I don't 152 00:09:41.679 --> 00:09:45.840 know where in the process that became a problem, or 153 00:09:45.840 --> 00:09:48.720 if it was just something that was sprinkled all the 154 00:09:48.759 --> 00:09:49.519 way through. 155 00:09:53.279 --> 00:09:53.720 How much. 156 00:09:53.799 --> 00:09:55.879 I mean, there's a quote somewhere again, I think it 157 00:09:55.919 --> 00:10:01.399 was from one of the GSA or one of those 158 00:10:01.440 --> 00:10:04.279 reports that part of the problem was that that they 159 00:10:04.320 --> 00:10:06.879 can't the reason for the noodle as is, it's an 160 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:11.559 incomplete design, and they started building these ships laying the 161 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:15.879 keels down before they had complete designs. Now that the 162 00:10:15.919 --> 00:10:19.559 frem itself had that was a complete design. But apparently 163 00:10:19.679 --> 00:10:22.080 just all the all the things, as you said, all 164 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:24.639 the things we've added, have cause some of these issues. 165 00:10:24.720 --> 00:10:26.759 What would it take do you think for the US 166 00:10:26.919 --> 00:10:29.279 Navy and probably the Royal Navy and a bunch of 167 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:33.440 other navies to sit with the design and build a 168 00:10:33.480 --> 00:10:36.000 few of them and uh and just live with them 169 00:10:36.000 --> 00:10:38.480 for a while. Just is that out of our Is 170 00:10:38.519 --> 00:10:40.559 that out of our I noticed when you talk about 171 00:10:40.559 --> 00:10:43.399 the LCS program. That was part of the issue there too. 172 00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:45.840 They didn't want to build one office and then and 173 00:10:45.919 --> 00:10:49.200 then let the choice be made. It was it was 174 00:10:49.200 --> 00:10:50.399 more complicated now. 175 00:10:51.879 --> 00:10:56.799 Well, so, interestingly, this is how China approaches shipbuilding. So 176 00:10:57.000 --> 00:11:01.799 when China designs and you destroy, for example, it'll build 177 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:05.279 one test it, iterate it, and then build a second 178 00:11:05.320 --> 00:11:08.000 one slightly different, and then when it gets to the 179 00:11:08.039 --> 00:11:11.039 final good design, it will then build. However, many of those, 180 00:11:11.360 --> 00:11:15.960 so China iterates through construction, and that might be an 181 00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:21.399 interesting way to think about it for the Royal Navy 182 00:11:21.399 --> 00:11:25.759 and so on, is to come up with a design, 183 00:11:26.360 --> 00:11:30.799 build it, and then see what needs to be tweaked. 184 00:11:31.360 --> 00:11:33.720 But then again, at that point you may run into 185 00:11:33.759 --> 00:11:36.240 the problem that the LCS has, which is why we 186 00:11:36.320 --> 00:11:40.759 have two classes of LCS, because they didn't pick a design, 187 00:11:41.559 --> 00:11:43.399 but then both of them turned out to be terrible 188 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:46.159 in their own special ways. Maybe those could both have 189 00:11:46.240 --> 00:11:54.000 been iterated as well. So I think the our navies 190 00:11:54.039 --> 00:11:57.279 don't tend to think about iteration as a good idea 191 00:11:57.399 --> 00:12:02.399 because it just seems messy, I guess. And you think 192 00:12:02.440 --> 00:12:04.440 when you think shit building, you think, right, here's our 193 00:12:04.440 --> 00:12:07.279 design we're going to build ten of them off you go. 194 00:12:07.720 --> 00:12:10.519 But if we cannot do that, then we do need 195 00:12:10.559 --> 00:12:13.039 to think about another way forward, because otherwise we're not 196 00:12:13.039 --> 00:12:14.080 going to have any ships. 197 00:12:15.240 --> 00:12:17.159 I think you hit on a good point here. It's 198 00:12:17.200 --> 00:12:20.159 not well, sure, isn't the lack of money, and there's 199 00:12:20.159 --> 00:12:22.600 plenty of that's sloshing around in the building. It's not 200 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:27.879 the fact that our engineers are less intelligent are bad. 201 00:12:28.519 --> 00:12:32.799 It's just it's almost a mindset issue. Because I have 202 00:12:32.879 --> 00:12:35.159 my own little hobby horses in one of which at 203 00:12:35.279 --> 00:12:37.600 least on the American side of the equation. But I 204 00:12:37.639 --> 00:12:40.159 know there's a lot of bleedover for what happens in 205 00:12:40.200 --> 00:12:43.720 America to our allies, because y'all send you your best 206 00:12:43.759 --> 00:12:45.840 folks here to go to our war colleges and to 207 00:12:45.879 --> 00:12:51.320 do tours with us. But it's before and after Goldwater Nichols. 208 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:57.399 Is that whole Goldwater Nichols joint construct. Goldwater Nichols was 209 00:12:57.399 --> 00:12:59.679 put in the law in eighty six. It really didn't 210 00:12:59.720 --> 00:13:05.360 start getting its teeth until two palm cycles later about 211 00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:08.960 nineteen ninety, and then really that whole change in mindset 212 00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:13.200 took place because before Goldwater Nichols, the last ship to 213 00:13:13.240 --> 00:13:15.879 really do its initial designs at least was the Arly 214 00:13:15.960 --> 00:13:18.600 Burke that the US Navy seems to want to build 215 00:13:18.639 --> 00:13:20.440 to the crack of doom, which is mine. They do 216 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:23.120 a good job, But the Arley Burke had a similar 217 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:26.000 characteristics that the Spruance has had, and the Spruance had 218 00:13:26.120 --> 00:13:28.759 a different little aspect I'll bring up in different questions 219 00:13:28.759 --> 00:13:30.679 because you brought up in your article that kind of 220 00:13:30.720 --> 00:13:35.240 reminded me of it. But the Spruance was whole. One 221 00:13:35.279 --> 00:13:38.440 did not hit the water. As this is the ultimate DG. 222 00:13:39.840 --> 00:13:43.519 The Oliver Hazard Perry went through iterative changes. You had 223 00:13:43.559 --> 00:13:45.559 the short Perris, you had the long Perry's. They had 224 00:13:45.559 --> 00:13:48.000 a couple of corrections you had to make were already 225 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:52.159 in flight three of the Arly Burks. There should be 226 00:13:52.200 --> 00:13:56.519 the muscle memory in our systems of the iterative approach 227 00:13:56.639 --> 00:13:59.639 that really has shown a lot of success. But I 228 00:13:59.639 --> 00:14:03.720 think you're right. It's this desire to be perfect at 229 00:14:03.919 --> 00:14:06.759 day one. And I don't know if that's so much 230 00:14:06.799 --> 00:14:12.240 written into law, or is it because we have accountants 231 00:14:12.279 --> 00:14:16.919 in NBAS vice engineers approaching our shipbuilding program, or have 232 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:21.559 the politicians a different generation expect too much I'm not 233 00:14:21.639 --> 00:14:25.360 a believer in single causel there's always multi causs when 234 00:14:25.639 --> 00:14:27.480 are in problems. But I think a lot of it 235 00:14:27.519 --> 00:14:31.360 has to do with with mindset and not realizing that 236 00:14:31.919 --> 00:14:34.679 both we have done things differently and better in the 237 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:38.759 recent past in other nations, like you mentioned the People's 238 00:14:38.919 --> 00:14:42.440 Republic of China their navy, they have a different approach 239 00:14:42.559 --> 00:14:47.080 that arguably is being very successful. Is that a harder 240 00:14:47.159 --> 00:14:49.840 thing to try to approach or fix if you're dealing 241 00:14:49.879 --> 00:14:52.080 with a mindset issue. 242 00:14:52.919 --> 00:14:56.720 I sort of wonder whether it's a difficult thing to 243 00:14:56.840 --> 00:15:03.159 sell to Congress, because given that the defense budget and 244 00:15:03.159 --> 00:15:05.519 defense funding has to go through the House and the 245 00:15:05.559 --> 00:15:10.000 Senate every single year, you do have to sell this program, 246 00:15:10.440 --> 00:15:15.200 whichever program is constantly to those lawmakers. And I do 247 00:15:15.320 --> 00:15:20.440 wonder whether it is easier to sell this beautiful design. 248 00:15:20.720 --> 00:15:22.679 We're going to build fifteen of them. It's going to 249 00:15:22.679 --> 00:15:27.200 be great. Give us the money, as opposed to we've 250 00:15:27.240 --> 00:15:29.200 got this design, we think it's pretty good. We're going 251 00:15:29.240 --> 00:15:32.879 to build a couple, might make some tweaks, give us 252 00:15:32.879 --> 00:15:34.679 some money, and then we'll see how it goes. And 253 00:15:34.720 --> 00:15:38.320 I just I wonder whether there's a mindset in Congress 254 00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:45.840 that has less flexibility for failure essentially, and they want 255 00:15:45.879 --> 00:15:49.080 things to be perfect cookie cutter frigates that will just 256 00:15:49.159 --> 00:15:52.519 be stamped out in the shipyards, bash bash bash, there 257 00:15:52.559 --> 00:15:56.080 we go, and they don't have the risk appetite or 258 00:15:56.120 --> 00:15:59.600 the muscle memories you say, of the previous ways in 259 00:15:59.639 --> 00:16:01.639 which is this has been done to be able to 260 00:16:01.720 --> 00:16:07.440 have the ability to allow that kind of iteration in 261 00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:11.840 building ships as opposed to designing them, because designing something 262 00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:16.120 on paper it's not cheap, but maybe it seems cheaper 263 00:16:16.480 --> 00:16:21.360 to those lawmakers than it does to actually weld something together. 264 00:16:22.639 --> 00:16:25.600 So I don't know whether it's a conversation should be 265 00:16:25.600 --> 00:16:30.840 being had with and within Congress as to how you 266 00:16:30.960 --> 00:16:34.360 fix those programs going forward, Maybe to allow that wiggle 267 00:16:34.440 --> 00:16:38.480 room of the possibility of failure in a way that 268 00:16:38.559 --> 00:16:42.240 allows for iteration rather in a way that sends you 269 00:16:42.279 --> 00:16:45.679 down the LCS route of pumping good money after bad. 270 00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:51.840 There must be a way to rectify that without going 271 00:16:51.879 --> 00:16:54.600 down the same old routes that we've been down before. 272 00:16:56.120 --> 00:17:00.639 Yeah, I know that the obviously US and the and 273 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:04.839 the Royal Navy developed aircraft carriers, and they they did 274 00:17:04.880 --> 00:17:09.119 not build twelve at once they were iterations, I mean 275 00:17:09.200 --> 00:17:12.759 went from the from the converted coal ship to A 276 00:17:13.920 --> 00:17:17.880 to the all the variations we had during World War Two, 277 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:21.000 the Essex Class and the Midway, all these other ships 278 00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:24.440 maney of which were still in operation several years later. 279 00:17:24.599 --> 00:17:26.680 That was an interview process. We had the same thing 280 00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:28.559 in between World War One and World War Two with 281 00:17:28.599 --> 00:17:32.559 the cruisers. There was a development of those. It was iteratived. 282 00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:38.160 So and during the war our destroyers were developed on 283 00:17:38.799 --> 00:17:41.559 so you had the Johnson class, which which turns into 284 00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:44.160 another class, which turns eventually into the Gearing Class. No, 285 00:17:44.559 --> 00:17:47.039 we did that before. But I was struck in your 286 00:17:47.039 --> 00:17:49.400 dissertation where you talked about with the lcs. One of 287 00:17:49.400 --> 00:17:53.400 the problems was that the the the industry people were saying, 288 00:17:53.480 --> 00:17:55.680 if you do it the way you're proposing, this is 289 00:17:55.720 --> 00:17:58.000 what I got out of your dissertation, and this part 290 00:17:58.119 --> 00:17:59.759 is if you do what you're doing with the l 291 00:17:59.839 --> 00:18:01.680 C where you're gonna only have a couple, we're gonna 292 00:18:01.680 --> 00:18:03.559 have to We're gonna have to pause our work, we 293 00:18:03.720 --> 00:18:05.599 have to lay off our workers. We really don't want 294 00:18:05.599 --> 00:18:08.640 to do that. That's that's bad. And I'm thinking, well, 295 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:11.119 that's you know, if I'm a manufacturer, I probably don't 296 00:18:11.119 --> 00:18:13.640 want to do that. The Chinese have the advantage, of course, 297 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:16.519 that they don't really have that kind of industry where 298 00:18:16.519 --> 00:18:18.839 they have to worry about laying off the workers. So 299 00:18:19.279 --> 00:18:21.480 I mean, how much of this is driven by those 300 00:18:22.000 --> 00:18:25.720 those uh what do you call it a malgative or something? 301 00:18:25.720 --> 00:18:27.839 What is the word you're using your dissertation that I 302 00:18:27.880 --> 00:18:30.000 can't remember right off the top of my end. You know, 303 00:18:30.279 --> 00:18:32.599 all these other people have input. It's not just Congress, 304 00:18:32.599 --> 00:18:33.720 and it's not just the Navy. 305 00:18:35.680 --> 00:18:40.960 No, it's definitely true. And I think with Constellation, because 306 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:46.640 that's being built by Vincantieri Marionette Marine in Wisconsin, it 307 00:18:46.680 --> 00:18:51.640 would have been interesting to see what what Mike Gallagher 308 00:18:51.640 --> 00:18:54.200 would have carried on making of this if you hadn't 309 00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:59.559 retired from the House, and to see it's interesting to 310 00:18:59.599 --> 00:19:04.359 see how those lawmakers whose districts and states are directly 311 00:19:04.400 --> 00:19:11.039 affected by the building of a specific program have their 312 00:19:11.160 --> 00:19:16.440 view shaped as opposed to other lawmakers. And you know, 313 00:19:16.440 --> 00:19:19.680 in many ways that is understandable because you know, building 314 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:23.079 a big program in a yard in your area gives 315 00:19:23.200 --> 00:19:26.880 jobs to your constituents, it gives economic spill over affects 316 00:19:26.920 --> 00:19:31.759 your communities, keeps people in work, so it's very understandable. 317 00:19:31.799 --> 00:19:36.240 But then also it can skew how lawmakers look at 318 00:19:36.759 --> 00:19:40.440 whether the programs have merit in and of themselves. So 319 00:19:40.559 --> 00:19:43.759 you can get the effect where a lawmaker will look 320 00:19:43.759 --> 00:19:46.680 at a program and say, I'm not too sure about this, 321 00:19:47.480 --> 00:19:50.720 I don't think we need this, or I think it 322 00:19:50.799 --> 00:19:55.039 could be done better. But if I don't vote the 323 00:19:55.079 --> 00:19:58.359 money for this, then forty five thousand of my constituents 324 00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:02.720 will lose their jobs. And that kind of incentive is 325 00:20:02.839 --> 00:20:07.920 very very understandable, but can also skew how lawmakers approach 326 00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:11.279 these kinds of decisions. And if you have the big 327 00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:16.400 prime companies like Raithion, Luckied, Martin and so on, they 328 00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:20.680 deliberately spread the production of their big programs across as 329 00:20:20.680 --> 00:20:24.279 many states as they can in order to say as 330 00:20:24.319 --> 00:20:28.119 many lawmakers as they can, Hey, there's our site in 331 00:20:28.160 --> 00:20:31.799 your district that gives ten thousand jobs. Maybe you want 332 00:20:31.799 --> 00:20:36.480 to think about not canceling our product. The thing with 333 00:20:36.519 --> 00:20:41.559 Constellation is, like with shipbuilding, it's much more limited because 334 00:20:41.559 --> 00:20:44.319 obviously there are fewer shipyards because you have to have 335 00:20:44.799 --> 00:20:48.880 some water to build ship. So that does narrow the 336 00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:52.359 number of states and districts that are affected, but those 337 00:20:52.359 --> 00:20:57.440 shipyards do become really central economic hubs to those areas 338 00:20:58.160 --> 00:21:00.880 in a way that can often be a lot stronger 339 00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:04.799 than say an aircraft factory or an engine factory or 340 00:21:04.799 --> 00:21:09.519 something like that. The effect is a lot stronger, I 341 00:21:09.559 --> 00:21:14.440 think with shipbuilding, but a lot more focused on certain districts. 342 00:21:15.480 --> 00:21:19.640 So with Constellation, that's going to be very focused on Wisconsin, 343 00:21:20.559 --> 00:21:24.960 and given the importance of Wisconsin to the upcoming elections 344 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:30.880 in November, that might be a consideration. Again very understandable, 345 00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:36.799 but you can argue against that very strongly from a 346 00:21:36.839 --> 00:21:39.519 military operational need standpoint. 347 00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:44.640 And we see it in the UK, but also in 348 00:21:44.680 --> 00:21:50.799 the US. Is everything you said about the economic impacts 349 00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:53.799 for local Whether you're representative of Congress or a member 350 00:21:53.799 --> 00:21:56.400 of Parliament, you have those local issues because they can 351 00:21:56.839 --> 00:22:02.960 not just be a huge financial and jobs impact on 352 00:22:04.000 --> 00:22:08.119 a an np are our Comersman district, but also it 353 00:22:08.160 --> 00:22:10.880 can be the heart and the culture of a of 354 00:22:10.960 --> 00:22:14.359 a city and of a people, and when these industries disappear, 355 00:22:14.960 --> 00:22:19.440 it can change the nature and culture of entire areas. 356 00:22:22.279 --> 00:22:25.759 We've seen in the last few decades that as our 357 00:22:25.839 --> 00:22:29.680 ship building capacity has shrunk in the US. Everybody talks 358 00:22:29.720 --> 00:22:33.200 about the bracts and the nuxts is we have fewer 359 00:22:33.200 --> 00:22:37.519 and fewer shipyards building fewer, fewer ships, and I think 360 00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:40.200 we're past the point. But I think you could argue, 361 00:22:40.519 --> 00:22:43.920 at best, we're at the pivot point that a loss 362 00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:46.839 of a yard here, are closing of a yard there, 363 00:22:47.839 --> 00:22:51.759 whether it's in Green Bay or or somewhere between Portsmouth 364 00:22:51.759 --> 00:22:56.119 and Glasgow, that it's a national issue. Is you cannot 365 00:22:56.359 --> 00:23:00.599 create a shipyard overnight. You cannot create it in a year. 366 00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:03.359 You really can't create it in two years or four years, 367 00:23:03.359 --> 00:23:07.920 because those shipyards also require machinery, they require infrastructure, They 368 00:23:08.000 --> 00:23:12.480 required workers and artisans, especially if you're in the nuclear field. 369 00:23:12.480 --> 00:23:14.279 If you're a welder, you're an artist more than you 370 00:23:14.359 --> 00:23:18.240 or anything else there seems to be. And you mentioned 371 00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:20.960 Mike Gallagher on the US side of the equation. I 372 00:23:20.960 --> 00:23:24.839 think his retirement, combined with on the other side of 373 00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:27.599 the aisle in twenty twenty two, former Representative of the 374 00:23:27.640 --> 00:23:32.440 Lane Lauria leaving, we lost a lot of not just 375 00:23:33.200 --> 00:23:36.680 naval knowledge, but the people willing to invest political capital 376 00:23:36.720 --> 00:23:40.359 in the topic. But the loss of these capabilities of 377 00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:43.680 these yards is in many regards a national issues, a 378 00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:48.079 national security issue. I'm not sure how many warship producing 379 00:23:48.279 --> 00:23:52.920 or auxiliary producing yards anyone in the anglosphere can be 380 00:23:53.759 --> 00:23:57.960 comfortable in losing in twenty twenty four, because as the 381 00:23:58.000 --> 00:24:01.799 world again gets more challenging ease, there is no surge 382 00:24:01.839 --> 00:24:07.440 capacity because our merchant yards that build merchant ships are 383 00:24:07.480 --> 00:24:09.839 almost non existent compared to what they were even within 384 00:24:09.920 --> 00:24:10.559 living memory. 385 00:24:12.279 --> 00:24:17.039 No, you're completely right, and the problems that we're seeing 386 00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:22.319 with shipbuilding at the moment are proof completely that once 387 00:24:22.359 --> 00:24:27.559 you lose that capacity, you cannot get it back. And 388 00:24:27.640 --> 00:24:29.880 you know, kind of the peace dividend after the end 389 00:24:29.920 --> 00:24:34.599 of the Cold War, so much was kind of trimmed 390 00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:39.440 and stripped from the defense industrial base in the UK 391 00:24:39.599 --> 00:24:41.920 and the US, in France and Germany and so on 392 00:24:41.960 --> 00:24:46.480 and so on, and we are now feeling the effects 393 00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:50.559 of that because you can't come in and say, hey, 394 00:24:50.680 --> 00:24:53.720 we need to build ten destroyers. Let's build a shipyard 395 00:24:54.079 --> 00:24:55.960 that'll be done by the end of the year. Then 396 00:24:56.000 --> 00:24:57.839 we can start getting on with the destroyers. Like. It 397 00:24:57.880 --> 00:25:02.200 doesn't work like that, and it's much easier to keep 398 00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:09.039 facilities running than it is to build them. And if 399 00:25:09.079 --> 00:25:14.799 you'd stop giving orders to shipyards, you lose the facilities, 400 00:25:14.839 --> 00:25:19.279 you lose the talent, you lose the artisans, the designers, 401 00:25:19.319 --> 00:25:23.279