Speaker 1: Ato six if if you find Karen c De Talk Station,
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas right here. Glad to be especially on a Tuesday,
Speaker 1: because this is the time we get the inside scoop
Speaker 1: with bright Bart News bookmarkt B R e I, t
Speaker 1: b a art dot Com, some solid reporting from folks
Speaker 1: like my guest today, John Carney, bright Bart financial letter
Speaker 1: and co author of breit Bart Business Digest. John, welcome
Speaker 1: back to the morning show. It's a pleasure to have
Speaker 1: you on as always.
Speaker 2: Yes, thanks for having me pleasure.
Speaker 1: Man. What's this election going to mean to the economy?
Speaker 1: I was kind of glad. I think everyone expects the
Speaker 1: Fed to lower the interest rate, but at least they
Speaker 1: waited to laughter the election because that's certainly would have
Speaker 1: been viewed as some sort of perhaps election interference. At
Speaker 1: least that's the way I perceive it. But by all
Speaker 1: expectations are supposed to lower it. I know, folks that
Speaker 1: are interested in buying a home expect a little love
Speaker 1: in terms of interest rates. But generally speaking, Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: versus Donald Trump, the outcome is going to have some
Speaker 1: impact on the economy. What's your take, John.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, the so the Fed did cut in September,
Speaker 2: but mortgage rates have gone up since then because the
Speaker 2: market actually doesn't think the FED will be able to
Speaker 2: keep cutting. They're almost certainly going to cut later this
Speaker 2: week in November, but after that, either in December or
Speaker 2: sometime next year, they are going to have to slow
Speaker 2: down their cuts because, frankly, there are parts of the economy,
Speaker 2: including consumers spending, that are just too high to justify
Speaker 2: further cuts, and we're actually risking further inflation. I think
Speaker 2: that what we're going to see after this election is
Speaker 2: probably a lot of uncertainty. Remember it's not just the
Speaker 2: presidential election, but both houses of Congress, and it may
Speaker 2: take a few days to learn who's going to be president,
Speaker 2: and it could take even longer to learn who will
Speaker 2: control Congress. All of that will matter a lot for
Speaker 2: how the economy is going to develop over the next
Speaker 2: few years. A Republican sweep is viewed by a lot
Speaker 2: of people. A sweep by either party really is viewed
Speaker 2: by a lot of people as probably auguring in more deficits.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's right. I think actually a Republican
Speaker 2: sweep would lead to both lower inflation and lower deficits,
Speaker 2: whereas if the Democrats do well, they will have more
Speaker 2: or less been rewarded for driving deficits up to record
Speaker 2: highs and driving inflation up to record highs, and so
Speaker 2: therefore they won't ever stop. I think we will get
Speaker 2: a resurgence of inflation if we get Democrats, not just
Speaker 2: in the White House, but if they do well enough
Speaker 2: that they capture one or both Houses of Congress.
Speaker 1: Well in terms of the Democrats taking over both Houses
Speaker 1: of Congress, at both houses and the presidency, so give
Speaker 1: them a clean sweep. You suggest that spending will never stop,
Speaker 1: doesn't I know inflationary realities or dollars you print the
Speaker 1: less value they have. Anybody with a measure of common
Speaker 1: sense understands that. But we are on an already unsustainable path.
Speaker 1: Debt service is already close to a trillion dollars annually.
Speaker 1: That's more than we spend on defense. We do have obligations,
Speaker 1: some would argue, maybe less than we should have, but
Speaker 1: we have global obligations as well as obligations here. Domestically,
Speaker 1: our social welfare safety net is collapsing and underfunded. So
Speaker 1: how can that trajectory continue without bringing us to our
Speaker 1: knees and causing our collective bankruptcy.
Speaker 2: John, I think there's a big problem here, and this
Speaker 2: is one of the reasons why if the elector rewards
Speaker 2: the Democrats and Biden and Harris in particular for having
Speaker 2: driven up inflation with their unnecessary American Rescue plan so high,
Speaker 2: forty year high in inflation, if that doesn't have electoral consequence,
Speaker 2: I do not see why they don't do it again.
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, if you can tell a child,
Speaker 2: I'm very sorry, you know, I'm very upset at you
Speaker 2: for having stolen, you know, eaten the cookies out of
Speaker 2: the cookie jar when I told you not to. But
Speaker 2: if there are no consequences, when the cookie jar is refilled,
Speaker 2: the kids can will be right back in it. That
Speaker 2: is exactly what it's going to happen with the Democrats.
Speaker 2: If Kamala Harris comes in, she will see it as
Speaker 2: a basically as a mandate for them to get back
Speaker 2: on this Green New Deal, massive subsidy spending program, and
Speaker 2: they are going to do it all over again.
Speaker 1: Well, and you know, I keep going back to the
Speaker 1: reason why the Democrats are the fascists in spite of
Speaker 1: what they scream with Donald Trump. But again going back
Speaker 1: to the reality of that is this just fiddling while
Speaker 1: the country burns, and they think they're going to outlive,
Speaker 1: or rather that their time on this earth is going
Speaker 1: to end before the co collapse hits, because you can't
Speaker 1: sustain this kind of spending. It's just every country that's
Speaker 1: ever gone down this road has collapsed. We've got so
Speaker 1: many illustrations. I don't even know where to begin.
Speaker 2: Remember though, that they so one is they are in denial.
Speaker 2: They still say, you know, price hikes went up. You know,
Speaker 2: prices went up because of greed or putin or whatever.
Speaker 2: You want to imagine anything but their program. So one,
Speaker 2: they're a little bit in denial. But two, as institutions collapse,
Speaker 2: the Party of big Government benefits because they use the
Speaker 2: government to step in. So as we have communities fall
Speaker 2: apart across America, that benefits the Party of big centralized government.
Speaker 2: That and so they don't necessarily look at the collapse
Speaker 2: as something that's bad for them. In fact, it tends
Speaker 2: to benefit them. I'm not saying they're rooting for the
Speaker 2: collapse of the United States, but they do benefit from
Speaker 2: a lot of the things that are going to happen
Speaker 2: between now and for their deterioration.
Speaker 1: Of our republic right b our financial letter to John Carney.
Speaker 1: I just have to point out what it may be
Speaker 1: obvious to so many people, but I still have to
Speaker 1: say it out loud. They create the problem that causes
Speaker 1: the collapse, and then of course we the government will
Speaker 1: rush in with a solution that will solve the problem.
Speaker 1: It's like the whole green thing. You know, if we
Speaker 1: weren't worshipers at the climate cause, we wouldn't have the
Speaker 1: problems we're facing right now across the board. They're the
Speaker 1: ones that force these solutions, so called solutions upon US
Speaker 1: windmills and solar panels that don't generate enough electricity and
Speaker 1: also cause well geopolitical realities like helping China and China's
Speaker 1: military build. But then they have to come to the
Speaker 1: rescue and solve our problems with high gasoline prices, intentionally
Speaker 1: high because they refuse to allow us to drill and refine.
Speaker 1: They come in with a subsidy or tapping into the
Speaker 1: strategic petroleum oil Reserve to soften the blow of what
Speaker 1: they created. It's insanity, that's right.
Speaker 2: Look, I mean that the metaphors almost suggests themselves. It's
Speaker 2: like a burglar who also has a home security company
Speaker 2: on the side. He robs your house and then tells
Speaker 2: you how much you need a home security system to
Speaker 2: protect you, or an arsonist who is also a fireman.
Speaker 2: They are causing the destruction that we are then that
Speaker 2: they and then they come in with their solutions that
Speaker 2: actually tend to make things worse. Look, one of the
Speaker 2: things that we got in economic news just yesterday is
Speaker 2: that the average age of a first time home buyer
Speaker 2: has gone up to thirty eight because and interest rates
Speaker 2: are so high. Think about what that means for family
Speaker 2: formation in the United States. If you're a young couple,
Speaker 2: you want to have a family. Maybe you know you
Speaker 2: have one child, you're living in an apartment, you are
Speaker 2: hoping to buy a house. If you have to wait
Speaker 2: till you're thirty eight to have the savings to be
Speaker 2: able to afford a house, this means your children, This
Speaker 2: means more dependency on government. That is, we look at
Speaker 2: that and say that's terrible. We need to bring that
Speaker 2: back down to the normal level. It was thirty one,
Speaker 2: thirty two, thirty three before thirty eight is basically saying
Speaker 2: we're not going to have families in the United States.
Speaker 2: The Democrats look at this and they say that's a feature,
Speaker 2: not a bug.
Speaker 1: Well, and some folks may connect the dots with this
Speaker 1: whole idea of the fifteen minute city and the idea
Speaker 1: that you know, we shouldn't be had. We shouldn't own
Speaker 1: these large homes or even modest homes out in the suburbs.
Speaker 1: Those are bad. We have to have more commute time
Speaker 1: causes pollution. It's unfair, it's not equitable, whatever I think
Speaker 1: that's built into the equation. It's what they want. They
Speaker 1: don't want people to have private home ownership, and if
Speaker 1: they own something, they want it to be a tiny
Speaker 1: little home. Hence the rezoning that's going on in all
Speaker 1: these different cities around the country at the behest of
Speaker 1: liberals who want to, you know, build more condensed and
Speaker 1: apartment dwelling type housing as opposed to individual homes.
Speaker 2: Right. It's it's sort of hilarious. And this is a
Speaker 2: great example of what we're talking about. We say, oh, no,
Speaker 2: you've created a system where we can't afford home because
Speaker 2: you drew prices and interest rates through the roof of
Speaker 2: your inflationary policies. And they say, I have an idea.
Speaker 2: You can live in a pod instead. Thanks right, that's
Speaker 2: the solution. And by the way, the pod living and
Speaker 2: the no children means that the government goes bankrupt even faster,
Speaker 2: because the thing you need the most of the society
Speaker 2: are young people to support your elderly people. When you're
Speaker 2: not producing enough young people, your elderly people are therefore
Speaker 2: more dependent on government than before. And that again is
Speaker 2: part of the program. It's why that when we say
Speaker 2: it's unsustainable, they say, no, it's sustainable. It just means
Speaker 2: more government from now until the eventual We know how
Speaker 2: this will will eventually end unless we vote correctly, right,
Speaker 2: we have a choice. It's not inevitable. We can turn
Speaker 2: back the tide. But if we reward what's happened over
Speaker 2: the last four years with another four years, it becomes
Speaker 2: harder and harder.
Speaker 1: It does. And of course the fat is these problems
Speaker 1: and our refusal to have children as a multitude of
Speaker 1: reasons for that justifies and supports their open borders argument,
Speaker 1: which is, well, this is the replacement population that we
Speaker 1: won't have. We need work there, We need workers to
Speaker 1: do the jobs that Americans won't do. We've been convinced
Speaker 1: that we won't do certain jobs that always blows my mind.
Speaker 1: But that serves as justification for the insanity on the
Speaker 1: southern border, in northern border.
Speaker 2: And actually that is another circular argument again where when
Speaker 2: you have fewer children, then you bring in more immigrants,
Speaker 2: that actually discourages family formation because it lowers the income
Speaker 2: of young people because they're now competing with more young people.
Speaker 2: So rather than having a cycle where when you had
Speaker 2: a wave of fewer children, you then get a baby boom,
Speaker 2: after that, you bring in the immigration boom, which supplants
Speaker 2: the baby boom. Those immigrants then don't get along as
Speaker 2: well with their friends and neighbors because they're from all
Speaker 2: over the world, which requires more government. So it is,
Speaker 2: you know, all these things are very very deeply connected.
Speaker 2: You're absolutely right, And there is a you know, and
Speaker 2: we're faced with a choice, right and it's very clear,
Speaker 2: do you want more of what we saw, you know,
Speaker 2: high prices, unrestricted, open borders, higher crime, or do you
Speaker 2: want a economy that will promote family formation, that will
Speaker 2: have price stability and will have secure borders, you know,
Speaker 2: And frankly, that's the choice. They don't want us to
Speaker 2: look at it. In those choices, they say These are
Speaker 2: all separate policies, don't connect the dots, but you just
Speaker 2: did a great job of connecting.
Speaker 1: This all well. Thank you. I try to apply logic
Speaker 1: and reason to any situation, and that's where I come
Speaker 1: down on this actually seems as obvious as you had
Speaker 1: our conversation out loud this morning. Going back to your
Speaker 1: initial comment, though I really must do this, John Carney Bright,
Speaker 1: part Financial Editor, Consumer Spending, you said it's expected to ry. Now,
Speaker 1: I've read any number of articles about consumers already maxing
Speaker 1: out their credit card debts, and given the landscape of
Speaker 1: inflationary pressures, I'm just wondering, I mean, are there that
Speaker 1: many extra dollars around to allow consumers to increase spending
Speaker 1: and any given moment. I know we're entering Christmas season,
Speaker 1: which is like the biggest time we spend, but I
Speaker 1: mean home budgets, they face the stark reality the federal
Speaker 1: government doesn't have We don't have a printing press in
Speaker 1: our home, so we've got to mind our budgets. And
Speaker 1: you know, the weight of credit card debt is almost
Speaker 1: insurmountable given how high the regular the credit card rates are.
Speaker 2: Well, I have some terrible news when you look at
Speaker 2: the money, the amount of money in the economy, it's
Speaker 2: actually been rising again for the last three months. I
Speaker 2: don't think that's a coincidence that this is happening while
Speaker 2: we're going into this election. I think they've actually turned
Speaker 2: on the metaphorical printing presses to get more money into
Speaker 2: the economy. And they cut interest rates in September irresponsibly,
Speaker 2: one before or eight weeks before the election. So yes,
Speaker 2: they are putting trying to put more money into the system.
Speaker 2: And frankly, look, as long as interest rate, as long
Speaker 2: as unemployment stays low, and it's been very low, uh,
Speaker 2: then we will still see a lot of consumer spending
Speaker 2: because people don't spend just out of money they have now,
Speaker 2: they actually spend out of money that they expect to have.
Speaker 2: So if they feel secure in their jobs, they will
Speaker 2: keep spending and they will run up credit card debt.
Speaker 2: It's unfortunate because credit card debt is very expensive right now.
Speaker 2: And if I were, you know, if I were to
Speaker 2: give people advice and they don't do that. But look,
Speaker 2: it is still happening, and people are when you look
Speaker 2: discretionary spending, spending on restaurants, spending on airplanes. People are
Speaker 2: spending on things that they could choose not to. That
Speaker 2: tells me that consumer spending is going to keep going strong.
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, and one final question before we
Speaker 1: part company. Let's us say assume, for the sake of
Speaker 1: discussion that the Republicans sweep everything and they choose to
Speaker 1: make good on their long standing promise to be fiscally
Speaker 1: responsible and cut down the size and scope of government.
Speaker 1: Do you think we have any hope of that happening?
Speaker 1: With Elon Musk having some role in that, as is suggested,
Speaker 1: may happen.
Speaker 2: Yes, Elon Musk came in and found that he could
Speaker 2: fire tons of people at Twitter. He runs his other
Speaker 2: companies very leanly. There are offices inside of every branch
Speaker 2: of government that shouldn't even exist. Does every part of
Speaker 2: the government need a diversity, Equity and Inclusion office? Of of
Speaker 2: course not. So just start right away and zero those out.
Speaker 2: And by the way, you have to fire all of
Speaker 2: those people. And because if you just say eliminate the office,
Speaker 2: they get transferred and do the same job. You actually
Speaker 2: have to say how many people work in this department
Speaker 2: in your agency? All right? You have to get rid
Speaker 2: of them, and that well, I mean, look, that's not
Speaker 2: that much money, but it will set the tone. They
Speaker 2: could do that on day one with an ex second quarter.
Speaker 1: Well, I've been living for that day since I became
Speaker 1: aware politically in my late high school years. It's dreams,
Speaker 1: but let's say the dreams can come true. John Carney,
Speaker 1: appreciate everything you do. Probly. I have one of my
Speaker 1: listeners in Florida just chimed in instant media you are
Speaker 1: her favorite Breitbart reporter. And I know a lot of
Speaker 1: people feel that way very much. And Marie loves you,
Speaker 1: John Carney. We love you too. On the fifty five
Speaker 1: Carsy Morning Show, keep it the great work with Breitbart.
Speaker 1: Tell everybody there that the fifty five Carssy Morning Show
Speaker 1: listeners said, Hello, I'll look forward to another edition next Tuesday.
Speaker 1: We'll be logging in John's been fun today eight twenty one.
Speaker 1: Coming up at eight twenty two, Stick around Daniel Davis
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