1
00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:07,440
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday. It's time for Total Bases.

2
00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:11,560
The technical difficulties have been resolved. We're back live today

3
00:00:12,759 --> 00:00:17,239
for another day of some day baseball. Wish there was

4
00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:18,839
a little bit more, but that's all right. They gave

5
00:00:18,879 --> 00:00:20,920
us a couple of day games, and Brian Leonard, they

6
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:24,320
gave us a full slate of games, which is always great.

7
00:00:24,359 --> 00:00:28,199
Fifteen games across MLB today. Welcome in. Let's get the

8
00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,879
chat going. That's something we missed yesterday, not having you

9
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,719
guys in the chat in real time. So we're glad

10
00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,520
to be back live and for the next hour, we're

11
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,719
gonna hit as many MLB three picks as possible while

12
00:00:40,759 --> 00:00:44,359
going deep into the games as we always do. So

13
00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,359
let's start. I gotta start with this one. If you

14
00:00:49,399 --> 00:00:52,320
watch this show, then Jonah Tong's name should not be

15
00:00:52,399 --> 00:00:54,119
new to you because I've been talking about him for

16
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,799
weeks and the Mets called him up. He's gonna start Friday,

17
00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,520
but today, Brian Leonard, it's no McLean someone we also

18
00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,640
talked about before he came up. And the thing that

19
00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:06,519
I noticed when I looked at the odds this morning

20
00:01:07,079 --> 00:01:11,120
is the books that have very much adjusted to the

21
00:01:11,159 --> 00:01:14,000
Mets being maybe they're back. I don't know. They've won

22
00:01:14,079 --> 00:01:16,519
four of their last five. They certainly feel like they're

23
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,000
back a little bit. But all of a sudden, you've

24
00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,280
got to pay a dollar fifty for McLean? Did that

25
00:01:22,359 --> 00:01:25,079
move too far in the other direction right there?

26
00:01:28,079 --> 00:01:31,680
Speaker 2: Well, he's going against timon Walker. So if you were

27
00:01:31,719 --> 00:01:34,680
to judge the starters that have gone in this series

28
00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,480
based on how McClean is pitched, he's probably the best

29
00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,159
starter in the three games, where Walker is probably the

30
00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:45,359
worst for Philadelphia. So yeah, it makes sense where it's at.

31
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:51,599
This is also a getaway day, believe I think this

32
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,640
might be the only one that's a getaway day today.

33
00:01:54,879 --> 00:01:57,799
There might be another one, but the Mets will stay

34
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,640
at home, but Philadelphia goes back home and they leave

35
00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:05,719
after this. So I usually like to look for unders

36
00:02:05,799 --> 00:02:11,400
on getaway day games, and this line. The total the

37
00:02:11,439 --> 00:02:13,319
first game of the series was seven and a half.

38
00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,280
Yesterday it was eight. Now we're looking at eight and

39
00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:20,439
a half to the over, and it might be a

40
00:02:20,439 --> 00:02:23,639
good time to come in and play a little contrarian here.

41
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,000
The Met's have been the best scoring team in the

42
00:02:27,039 --> 00:02:30,319
last two weeks. The WRC plus has been out standing,

43
00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,520
and Philadelphia has been very good also, But we'll have

44
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,439
to see how this goes. A lot of times when

45
00:02:36,479 --> 00:02:39,240
you this is a this is a good pitcher's park.

46
00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,240
So it's in fact when I take a look at

47
00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:49,919
the the combined effect here on the park factors, So

48
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,879
do you feel today is sixteen percent less runs or

49
00:02:52,879 --> 00:02:57,000
excuse me, yes, minus sixteen percent, lass runs, doubles and

50
00:02:57,039 --> 00:03:01,360
trubles minus twenty four percent. So we're looking at the

51
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,560
Mets in the one fifty range and until l eight

52
00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:07,159
and a half to the over, I prefer the under. Here.

53
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,919
Walkers pitched pretty well, although he did pitch twice against

54
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,360
the Mets in Philadelphia earlier this year coming out of

55
00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,759
the bullpen, and he got hit pretty well. But he

56
00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:20,960
is a starter now and he's done very well as

57
00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,280
a starter. He's been better on the road, and as

58
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,360
I mentioned, this is a pretty good pitcher's ballpark. MacLean

59
00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,919
has been terrific. If you are betting on the Mets,

60
00:03:32,159 --> 00:03:37,840
you were probably playing the peak, but I wouldn't argue

61
00:03:37,879 --> 00:03:42,120
against it because he's been very dominant so far and

62
00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,840
there's actually been you know, talk of that you talked

63
00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,759
about the one there's a couple other guys that they

64
00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:50,719
talked about bringing up and letting the pitch in the

65
00:03:50,719 --> 00:03:53,719
bullpen a little bit. So the Mets are, you know,

66
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,319
pitching staff is looking good. They can just get a

67
00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:00,319
couple of the guys that Manea, which is again yesterday

68
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,360
we bet you about managers leaving guys in too long.

69
00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,439
He did it once again yesterday with Maneya. I can

70
00:04:06,479 --> 00:04:09,520
only go four innings at this point, Tyner Biby's going

71
00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,680
four innings. You know what you're going to get out

72
00:04:11,719 --> 00:04:14,120
of those these type of guys at this point, they

73
00:04:14,199 --> 00:04:17,600
just cannot pitch longer. They're just just the way it is.

74
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,680
And if we know it, why doesn't the manager know it?

75
00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:22,879
Why doesn't he have somebody in the fifth inning warming

76
00:04:22,959 --> 00:04:26,800
up in the bullpen. That's what got away from him yesterday.

77
00:04:26,879 --> 00:04:28,920
Luckily the bats got hot late and they came back.

78
00:04:28,959 --> 00:04:32,000
But that's always a concern. But I kind of like

79
00:04:32,079 --> 00:04:34,120
the under in this one, with these two pitchers going

80
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,399
a little bit of treading. I'm in no hurry to

81
00:04:37,439 --> 00:04:40,720
play it because I think we may find a nine

82
00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,360
right now. You find you a nine at Sports four

83
00:04:43,439 --> 00:04:47,680
or eleven, which is like a Chris Chris book, but

84
00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,920
it's nine under twenty four. I wouldn't have a problem

85
00:04:51,959 --> 00:04:52,720
betting that one.

86
00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,480
Speaker 3: So today, I have a five percent play out in

87
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,920
MLB today, so it's on my page. Up one hundred

88
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,839
and five units in twenty twenty five, so I've doubled

89
00:05:05,879 --> 00:05:09,040
the bankroll in eight months. Go grab that plate. Kbo

90
00:05:09,319 --> 00:05:12,360
I rocked today. I had LG bad odds, but I

91
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,600
also had Samsung first five and Samsung money line and

92
00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,360
they're winning fourteen to one. So I feel comfortable calling

93
00:05:18,399 --> 00:05:25,079
that one in the seventh or eighth INNY. Regarding this game, Yeah,

94
00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,360
McClean two starts, but man, has he been good and

95
00:05:28,399 --> 00:05:31,920
my numbers love him. But the question is is two

96
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,680
starts enough of a sample size. Well, he's not walking anyone.

97
00:05:34,959 --> 00:05:40,240
His walk to strikeout rate is excellent. But I so

98
00:05:40,959 --> 00:05:43,600
I would be inclined to take an under here because

99
00:05:43,639 --> 00:05:47,759
Taiwan Walker's numbers against the Mets are pretty good. His

100
00:05:47,959 --> 00:05:51,399
away stats are better than his home stats. However, I've

101
00:05:51,439 --> 00:05:56,600
never been a Taiwan Walker fan, and both of these lineups,

102
00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,439
according to my rankings, are top five lineups. There's no

103
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,279
way I would take an under here, but that would

104
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,920
be my inclination if anything, Man, the Mets are just

105
00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:09,040
so hot it's hard to go against them. The Phillies

106
00:06:09,079 --> 00:06:12,439
were just as hot, what two weeks ago, So you know,

107
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:17,040
baseball goes up and down. Can the Mets, you know,

108
00:06:17,759 --> 00:06:20,360
take this one. I would be inclined to take either

109
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:21,839
of the Mets or the under, but there's no way

110
00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:22,759
I'm going to do either one.

111
00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, this was the spot I had circled for the

112
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,319
Mets in this series going into the series. So a

113
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,600
little annoyed at myself. I played the Mets all three

114
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,680
games over the weekend, went too and one, so it

115
00:06:34,759 --> 00:06:36,959
did yield a profit. And then I kind of looked

116
00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,879
at this series and said, you know, I didn't think

117
00:06:40,879 --> 00:06:43,079
that they would take both of the first two games,

118
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,040
just being honest. I mean, even as high as I

119
00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,279
am on the Mets relative to the market right now,

120
00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,439
I was a little surprised that they were able to

121
00:06:50,439 --> 00:06:53,000
get both both of those games. Part of it was,

122
00:06:53,639 --> 00:06:55,399
you know, and I'll go back to something Brian said,

123
00:06:55,519 --> 00:06:57,639
Manea should be coming out of the bullpen at this point.

124
00:06:57,759 --> 00:06:59,959
Jonah Toong is going to ultimately replace him in the

125
00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:04,040
starting rotation. You're you're gonna see a rotation of Tong McLain,

126
00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:10,480
probably Senga Peterson, maybe Clay Homes like they you know,

127
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,839
but I think Bane is the one that needs to go,

128
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,920
like Brian said, can't really go deep into games. I'd

129
00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,399
rather see him come out of the bullpen come playoff time.

130
00:07:18,959 --> 00:07:21,079
So he was you know that that wasn't someone I

131
00:07:21,079 --> 00:07:24,879
really wanted to bet on. Again. I still like the

132
00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,639
Mets here, it's just the prices has sort of I

133
00:07:27,639 --> 00:07:30,360
feel like I've gotten priced out. Like Brian said, you're

134
00:07:30,399 --> 00:07:33,439
definitely like laying sort of a premium priced down to

135
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,839
back McClain in the minus one forty five minus one

136
00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,720
fifty range. Doesn't mean it's the wrong side. I do

137
00:07:41,759 --> 00:07:44,439
think there's probably still some runs. Both teams have used

138
00:07:44,519 --> 00:07:47,480
up some pen the last couple of days, and you know,

139
00:07:47,519 --> 00:07:49,959
you have two offenses like Tokyo Brandon said that are

140
00:07:50,079 --> 00:07:52,680
that are very capable. So you know, eight and a

141
00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:56,600
half is a little bit appealing here, given the fact

142
00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,079
that like that's a you know, kind of a favorable

143
00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,639
number for an oh or if you're looking to bet overs.

144
00:08:02,399 --> 00:08:05,120
But I might do, like you know, Brian, Bryan has

145
00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,560
done this a couple of times where it's like, maybe

146
00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:09,519
maybe you try to in game the over and get

147
00:08:09,519 --> 00:08:14,319
a better number after the first few innings because McClain's

148
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,000
probably going five or six. I expected to pitch pretty good.

149
00:08:17,439 --> 00:08:21,480
Tawan Walker's been someone that's somehow been just far better

150
00:08:21,519 --> 00:08:23,240
than I expected him to be. But actually the last

151
00:08:23,279 --> 00:08:26,319
show we talked about his improved pitch mix using the

152
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,800
cutter more so he's actually been better. But I could see,

153
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,200
at least I could see one of these bullpens imploding

154
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,759
at some point. They have had some usage, So that's

155
00:08:34,799 --> 00:08:36,759
a way to look at it. I think if you

156
00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:38,440
were to pin me down for a pick right now,

157
00:08:38,639 --> 00:08:40,840
I'd say, like, let's just keep rolling with the Mets.

158
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,600
They're they're on the upswing, they're playing good ball, and

159
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,000
I really think Nolan MacLean is that guy. I think

160
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,879
he's there. I'm telling you right now. I said this

161
00:08:49,879 --> 00:08:51,879
a couple weeks ago. I truly believe the Mets are

162
00:08:51,879 --> 00:08:54,639
gonna get the playoffs and their one two is gonna

163
00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,279
be gonna be McLean and Tom and they're gonna be

164
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,639
a totally different team than what you've kind of seen,

165
00:09:00,039 --> 00:09:02,600
you know, this season. So I'm all in onmcclain. I'm

166
00:09:02,639 --> 00:09:04,879
in on the Mets, and I would pick the Mets

167
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:06,960
in this one if I had, if I had to

168
00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:11,840
bet it. All right, let's go to Fixer. I think

169
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:16,720
is with an X. Appreciate you commenting. Very interesting spelling there,

170
00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,360
hopefully I said that right. He said, any early game wins,

171
00:09:21,159 --> 00:09:23,240
and I there was an early game that I had

172
00:09:23,279 --> 00:09:25,039
my eye on and I want to talk about. And

173
00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,440
I know, I know Brian will love that we're bringing

174
00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,840
this up because this is his squad, and you know,

175
00:09:31,879 --> 00:09:33,600
I feel like we've kind of I feel like we've

176
00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,799
kind of gotten this one right so far over the

177
00:09:36,799 --> 00:09:39,080
course of the last two days. Brian had a bet

178
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,159
on the Rays on Monday. He put it in our parley.

179
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,879
That was an easy win. Yesterday he said, you know,

180
00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,519
kind of look at messic. I like the under It

181
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,840
was a three nothing final. The Guardians get it done.

182
00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:53,320
And now one of our three oh oh four day

183
00:09:53,399 --> 00:09:58,279
games today is raised Guardians Progressive field. Brian, you got

184
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:02,320
slay to Coney on the mound. The Guardians just dangling

185
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,399
by a threat, their hopes, their playoff hopes. Did Seconi

186
00:10:06,759 --> 00:10:08,559
get it done or you would you look the other way?

187
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:09,000
In this one?

188
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 2: I put a fark in them. They're done. They just

189
00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:18,600
yesterday they released Santana. My wife, my mother in law.

190
00:10:18,639 --> 00:10:20,960
A lot of fans are upset that they did it,

191
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,799
but it's what you do when you're out of the playoffs.

192
00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:25,919
They're not going to resign him again. He's a veteran,

193
00:10:25,919 --> 00:10:28,799
he's been a great Indian and then guardian in this

194
00:10:28,919 --> 00:10:33,000
time and uh, you know, everybody loves them, but you

195
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,080
got to look at the future. So now they're putting

196
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,360
Cafus more at first base. He's going to he's better,

197
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,360
much better at first base than he is in the outfield.

198
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,960
He's just a beginning outfielder, so they'll be able to

199
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:44,960
play him at first base. So they have the first

200
00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:49,279
base routine lefties and right he's there. But yeah, they

201
00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,320
got to start bringing up some younger guys figure out

202
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,519
what the hell they got because they don't have much hair.

203
00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,759
I used the under yesterday as my best bet four

204
00:10:57,799 --> 00:11:01,679
percent play for anybody who on a five dollars Tuesday,

205
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,600
and they scored three runs in the first inning in

206
00:11:06,159 --> 00:11:08,399
no more scoring the rest of the game. So a

207
00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,639
little surprised by the start, but they worked out pretty well.

208
00:11:12,759 --> 00:11:14,799
I can't argue with a four and a half run win,

209
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:16,840
and we've had a lot of that on our four

210
00:11:16,879 --> 00:11:19,639
and five percent plays lately, been on a tremendous run

211
00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,639
ten and four on four percent in better in the

212
00:11:22,759 --> 00:11:27,399
month of August. Ras Muscin on the mound two point

213
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,399
six two ERA, three point four to four expected zero

214
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:34,600
point ninety nine whip. He's a guy I love. Doesn't

215
00:11:34,639 --> 00:11:38,039
walk a lot of guys, and even though he doesn't

216
00:11:38,039 --> 00:11:41,600
have the greatest arm strength at this point, you know,

217
00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,639
he still throws the four seamerge about one mile an

218
00:11:44,639 --> 00:11:49,240
hour better than league average for a RITI. He's just

219
00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:51,639
a guy I used to like to play, and he's

220
00:11:51,639 --> 00:11:56,559
going off against Slay Chacone, who has really struggled lately.

221
00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,480
He's still got that four point four to one ERA

222
00:11:59,639 --> 00:12:04,120
not but his expected to are a five point five

223
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,799
point five eight if mine I sold maybe six eight,

224
00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:10,200
five point six eight and a way up at one

225
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:14,559
point to eight in the He's in the six percentile

226
00:12:14,799 --> 00:12:19,440
or worse in expected a RA expected batting average average

227
00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:24,679
of velocity, chase rate, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage.

228
00:12:24,879 --> 00:12:29,879
He doesn't strike enough guys out he walks. His walks

229
00:12:29,879 --> 00:12:33,639
aren't bad six point four percent which is a little

230
00:12:33,639 --> 00:12:36,360
better than average two percent better than average. But that's

231
00:12:36,399 --> 00:12:38,559
really all he does. He's in the seventy eight percentle

232
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,320
and walk rate. Too many, too many pitches in the zone,

233
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:46,000
and he's getting hit and he's beginning hit hard. I

234
00:12:46,159 --> 00:12:50,240
prefer Tampa Bay here, and I like him probably better

235
00:12:50,879 --> 00:12:53,159
in the first half. Let me check the quick first

236
00:12:53,159 --> 00:12:57,480
half line on this one, Uh Tampa Bay. But Raske

237
00:12:57,519 --> 00:12:59,960
Musson's about a one anywhere from a one to four

238
00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,919
to one forty five in the first half, and in

239
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:07,200
the game it's about one one thirty, so you get

240
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,120
playing a little bit more. Both bullpens should be in

241
00:13:10,159 --> 00:13:13,279
good shape tonight because of there hasn't been a lot

242
00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:18,080
of scoring in these games and both bullpens, other than

243
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,759
I believe one player for Cleveland's probably not going to

244
00:13:23,799 --> 00:13:26,279
be able to pitch tonight. But other than that, all

245
00:13:26,279 --> 00:13:29,600
the bullpen has set up pretty well playing. My bullpen

246
00:13:29,639 --> 00:13:32,600
has not been nearly as good second half of the season,

247
00:13:32,639 --> 00:13:36,320
obviously when they've lost Class A, so I do have

248
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,120
some concerns about that. So maybe take a look at

249
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,840
Tampa Bay first five at minus one forty or so.

250
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:43,559
Maybe something to take a look at.

251
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:50,159
Speaker 3: A lot to like about Resmusin. I mean, guys stud

252
00:13:50,399 --> 00:13:53,320
and I've watched him pitch. Love what I see passes

253
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,600
the eye test. He's got great numbers on the road

254
00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,480
at two six eight ERA and forty seven innings, and

255
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,120
also he's only given up four runs in his last

256
00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:09,679
four starts, so that's pretty solid. On my rankings system,

257
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,720
I have him ranked six on a curve of thirty

258
00:14:11,759 --> 00:14:15,000
out of all starting pictures, where I got Chacony ranked

259
00:14:15,039 --> 00:14:19,360
twenty fifth out of thirty on a curve. Raised bullpen

260
00:14:19,519 --> 00:14:25,919
has shaped up lately. They you know, they lost yesterday,

261
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,279
but that wasn't the bullpen's fault and got him ranked four.

262
00:14:29,799 --> 00:14:34,480
Cleveland's ranked twenty one. And regarding the hitting, despite getting

263
00:14:34,519 --> 00:14:37,919
blanked yesterday, I still have Tampa Bay ranked number six

264
00:14:37,919 --> 00:14:41,879
in MLB, which is surprising because they're never really known

265
00:14:41,919 --> 00:14:46,240
as as a great hitting team. So that would I'd

266
00:14:46,279 --> 00:14:48,759
like to backgrasp meson here. I mean, he's a good picture.

267
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,720
The thing is, Chcony's kind of my nemesis ever since

268
00:14:52,759 --> 00:14:55,000
he was with the Diamondbacks. He's one of those guys

269
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,000
who every time I fade in, he goes seven innings

270
00:14:58,039 --> 00:15:01,919
now earned, so he doesn't do that today, but he does.

271
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:06,120
He does have a homey RA over five, so maybe

272
00:15:06,159 --> 00:15:09,120
that's a sign that he's not gonna he's not gonna

273
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,480
bite me today. So yeah, I'd like to Backgrasps in here.

274
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,759
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like the Rays. I don't like the Rays

275
00:15:16,799 --> 00:15:19,960
as a team, but this, this matchup sets up nicely

276
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,559
for them. You were talking about secone kind of gets

277
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,159
you like, I feel like he's gotten me in certain spots.

278
00:15:26,159 --> 00:15:29,360
But he's expected ERA is almost six on the year

279
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:31,799
one of I think he's in the bottom five percent

280
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,600
in the league. And expected RA and expected batting average

281
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,480
not good. Has has some of the lowest chase rate

282
00:15:39,519 --> 00:15:41,080
in the league, doesn't get a ton of swing and

283
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,639
miss gives up hard hit Like I'll go back to

284
00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:47,879
like what I said during his last start, He's a

285
00:15:47,879 --> 00:15:51,080
guy that's pretty much like you know the Guardians. I

286
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,159
think Brian talked about this last week or maybe the

287
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,879
week before, where the Guardians went a different way in

288
00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,000
terms of building organizational depth. They really start to start

289
00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:04,480
to focus on drafting position players, probably because their lineup

290
00:16:04,519 --> 00:16:07,600
is atrocious. I think they kind of saw the writing

291
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,720
on the wall with this last year and maybe the

292
00:16:09,799 --> 00:16:12,279
year before, where they had what they felt like was

293
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,360
a really good team and just not a ton of

294
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,600
offensive really firepower outside of you know, Ramirez and like,

295
00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:21,720
you know, maybe Naylor at the time. Suddenly they don't

296
00:16:21,759 --> 00:16:25,120
have they don't have much pitching in the organization. And

297
00:16:25,159 --> 00:16:29,159
so I think Seconey was a result of just he

298
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,840
was available, the Diamondbacks essentially gave up on him. So

299
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,120
he the d Backs gave up on him. He was available,

300
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,480
and I think they said, let's just, you know, let's

301
00:16:37,559 --> 00:16:39,360
let's just grab a couple of these guys and see

302
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,799
what happens. And then what happened was Ben Leley got hurt,

303
00:16:43,679 --> 00:16:46,440
Shane Bieber ended up being moved, and now suddenly you

304
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,799
need a starting rotation and he's kind of just still there,

305
00:16:50,919 --> 00:16:53,000
like he's he's still the I guess the option they

306
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,080
want to roll with, because the guys that are worth

307
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,000
anything in that organization from a pitching standpoint haven't really

308
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,200
gotten a triple A yet with a lot of reps

309
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,319
outside of Mesic, who's now taking a different rotation spot.

310
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,799
So I don't like, I'm gonna throw Rais in the parlay.

311
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,359
I may even play this. It's a day game I'll

312
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,720
probably think about it over the next hour. I was

313
00:17:13,799 --> 00:17:16,079
kind of hoping to get like maybe ten cents cheaper,

314
00:17:17,279 --> 00:17:19,519
just because the Guardians take money sometimes. Like if you

315
00:17:19,519 --> 00:17:21,240
can get me down on like minus one twenty, I

316
00:17:21,279 --> 00:17:23,319
would I think I would be all over the rays

317
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,480
right here, Brian, what are we at right now? Like

318
00:17:25,519 --> 00:17:27,759
minus one thirty for this minus one thirty five.

319
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a twenty seven out there at Pinnacle, but

320
00:17:31,319 --> 00:17:34,160
everything else is you know, one thirty all the way

321
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:38,400
up to one forty. Yeah, twenty eight is circa here

322
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:42,960
in Vegas Heritage twenty nine, but yeah, the Sharper books

323
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:48,039
are at about one one thirty two. I would say, yeah,

324
00:17:48,079 --> 00:17:50,000
you know, creational books slightly high.

325
00:17:51,319 --> 00:17:53,039
Speaker 1: I just feel like, you look at these two teams

326
00:17:53,079 --> 00:17:57,759
on paper, they're very They're very similar in my opinion

327
00:17:57,759 --> 00:18:02,960
that like it almost like similarly bad bad offense. They've

328
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,680
got some pitching, they have bullpen arms. You know, they're

329
00:18:06,759 --> 00:18:09,079
they're very I mean you look at them in the standings,

330
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,240
Guardians sixty five and sixty six, Raise sixty four and

331
00:18:12,279 --> 00:18:14,440
sixty eight. They're the two teams that are kind of

332
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,839
like pretenders that are in the wildcard race. But we

333
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,160
know they have no shot to make the playoffs. Tampa

334
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,200
Bay's run differential this year plus thirty nine the Guardians

335
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,400
minus fifty six. Like, that's a pretty pretty big difference

336
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,359
in run differential with two teams that are almost the same.

337
00:18:31,799 --> 00:18:33,920
So yeah, well, let's let's throw the Rays in the parlay.

338
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,279
We'll try to get the parlay going early. We'll call

339
00:18:36,319 --> 00:18:39,119
it minus one thirty. I do think I agree with

340
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,519
the boys here that Rastussen gives them a pretty nice,

341
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,279
nice ed Sean, I gotta I gotta disagree with you.

342
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:47,640
He says the Guardians are a better team than the Race.

343
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,759
I don't think I agree with that. I gotta disagree,

344
00:18:50,759 --> 00:18:54,440
and I rarely disagree with Sean, but I gotta disagree.

345
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,799
I think I prefer I think I like the raised

346
00:18:56,799 --> 00:18:59,759
bullpen arms and their ability to be scrappy a little

347
00:18:59,759 --> 00:19:01,119
bit more more than the Guardians.

348
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:02,599
Speaker 3: He thinks are good.

349
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 2: The Tigers are good.

350
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 1: The Tigers are good. The Tigers are still a division winner.

351
00:19:08,799 --> 00:19:12,799
Speaker 3: I'm just sorry, Yeah they're okay.

352
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,279
Speaker 1: Josh makes a good point though, is this is is

353
00:19:15,319 --> 00:19:18,079
the rais like a super popular side today? I guess

354
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,039
I didn't really.

355
00:19:19,279 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, doesn't matter.

356
00:19:22,839 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: We need to him but yeah, it doesn't matter to me.

357
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,559
Speaker 2: But you guys, we need to realize Tampa Bay has

358
00:19:28,599 --> 00:19:31,799
gone the entire year without their number one starter McClanahan.

359
00:19:32,839 --> 00:19:36,200
Hunter Biggie was supposed to be there, one of one

360
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,720
of the guys that was going to help them. Uh,

361
00:19:38,759 --> 00:19:41,640
he's been out for a long time. Uh you look

362
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,279
at it for hitters. Ronda him, they brought him in.

363
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:50,119
He's heard all the time. Ronda was probably their best

364
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,599
or second best player. So he went down with a

365
00:19:52,599 --> 00:19:57,480
fractured risks. So this isn't a bad team. Isn't a

366
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,759
bad team at all. I think in the season they'll

367
00:20:00,839 --> 00:20:03,839
fix a few things. You just brought up Carson Williams,

368
00:20:03,839 --> 00:20:06,480
who's done nothing but hit since he's been up there.

369
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:10,880
And Seymour at first base, so he hasn't got hot yet.

370
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:15,119
But you know he's a decent looking young player. But

371
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,839
they've got some guys on this team. Simpson to lead off.

372
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,559
I love guys that combat three hundred and and put

373
00:20:23,599 --> 00:20:26,920
pressure on the defense from stealing bases. And we all

374
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:32,000
know unless uh In less Hedges is behind the play,

375
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,720
they're not going to throw out Simpson. The rest of

376
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,599
their guys suck when it comes to throwing out runners.

377
00:20:38,559 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and one another comment, Cleveland gonna get swept at home.

378
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,119
This is not for a sweep. The Raise won game

379
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,160
one convincingly and the Guardians bounced back with a three

380
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,960
nothing win last night. So yeah, I just blanked him.

381
00:20:51,079 --> 00:20:55,279
Interesting conversation though there. And yeah, it doesn't matter who's

382
00:20:55,279 --> 00:20:57,799
on the race. I still like him and I'll go

383
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,720
with the the crowd if I have to. Year all right,

384
00:21:01,279 --> 00:21:05,720
DP Singh says red Sox flying under the radar. Maybe

385
00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:08,559
I think the Red Sox have have come to the

386
00:21:08,599 --> 00:21:12,039
forefront a little bit in the last few weeks. Uh,

387
00:21:12,079 --> 00:21:15,160
they are leading the wild card, I would say after

388
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,440
the Yankees series. Brian Leonard, I don't think the Red

389
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,599
Sox are really under the radar anymore now, are they?

390
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,880
Maybe still? Could they still even be better than maybe

391
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,400
they're getting credit for. Yeah, I could. I could see

392
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,279
that plus one oh six on the run differential. They're

393
00:21:31,319 --> 00:21:34,880
seventy three and sixty. Roman Anthony looks like the generational

394
00:21:35,039 --> 00:21:38,359
star that he was billed to be coming in, you know,

395
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,000
kind of coming up through the miners, and they're getting

396
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,759
some pitching. I was wrong yesterday. My only my only

397
00:21:43,759 --> 00:21:46,960
client play was the Orioles and I got mowed down

398
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,079
by Lucas Giolito. I'll have to tip my cap. I

399
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,799
just I just did not see that coming from him

400
00:21:54,079 --> 00:21:56,039
in the second half after he sort of went on

401
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,440
his run in June. He has been tremendous and and

402
00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:03,519
I'll give credit where credit is due. That being said,

403
00:22:04,519 --> 00:22:06,079
I don't think the Red Sox are flying under the

404
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,039
radar right now, and I do think that maybe the

405
00:22:09,079 --> 00:22:13,400
prices is getting a little inflated here. Like yesterday, it

406
00:22:13,519 --> 00:22:16,079
made sense that it was, you know that it was

407
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:20,400
kind of priced accordingly, like kind of like a pick.

408
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,759
You had Bratish on one side, Gielito on the other.

409
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,079
The Red Sox are clearly the better team, but that

410
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,680
was closer to a pick. Now you're looking at the

411
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,680
Red Sox as a pretty big favorite. Almost You could

412
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,880
almost play Orioles plus one and a half here at

413
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,759
a reasonable price if you wanted to. So Brian Leonard,

414
00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:37,240
you had Orioles in the parlay yesterday. Do you have

415
00:22:37,319 --> 00:22:39,680
any interest coming back with the Oriols here?

416
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 2: Current line is about one thirty five for Boston take

417
00:22:49,279 --> 00:22:51,599
take back, you know, on the one twenty one range

418
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,839
something like that. One twenty range ends going. He's a

419
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:59,119
lefty going for Baltimore. Came over from Detroit. They cut

420
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,400
them ball and Baltimore picked him up. I believe is

421
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,480
how that worked out. But the total is nine here

422
00:23:06,279 --> 00:23:10,720
the money on the overnight Boston and granted there's not

423
00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:13,000
much money there, but Boston opened up as a one

424
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,559
sixty favorite and one thirty five on the on the

425
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,160
come back, and so Baltimore has taken a lot of

426
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,359
a lot of money early on here. And that kind

427
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,559
of surprises me because we've been even though I hated

428
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,319
Brian Bayo when they signed him for that long term contract,

429
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,039
he's been really good as of late. And so money

430
00:23:35,079 --> 00:23:40,480
is coming in on the somewhat unknown ends here after

431
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,839
Baltimore looked bad yesterday. That tells me, I think there

432
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,079
that's the right side on here is on Baltimore Boston

433
00:23:51,799 --> 00:23:56,359
after playing the Yankees and that that the big comeback,

434
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,319
and then the way they played yesterday, they may be

435
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,359
runn out of a little bit of gas here. Let me

436
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,680
just make a quick look and see who Boston has

437
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:10,880
coming up here after this one. Let's see tomorrow they're

438
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,759
at Baltimore for the final finale, and then they're home

439
00:24:15,799 --> 00:24:18,359
to Pittsburgh. Okay, so that's there's nothing to look forward

440
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:22,160
to in that regard. But I could see them basically

441
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,400
being very overrated when they are at home against Pittsburgh

442
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,119
and might be able to take advantage of that if

443
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,960
you're looking for the Pirates, but slight lane with Baltimore here,

444
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,279
but may not be enough to get there.

445
00:24:37,079 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sean, just stop, dude. My stats are not fake.

446
00:24:41,839 --> 00:24:44,440
Our records are posted on wager talk dot com and

447
00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:46,119
my stats are there. They're not fake.

448
00:24:46,319 --> 00:24:47,039
Speaker 1: Go look it up.

449
00:24:47,559 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 3: I'm the number one kuy three of the last four years.

450
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:50,319
Speaker 1: Go look it up.

451
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 3: Better yet, ask wager talk. Go ask info at wage

452
00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:57,480
talk dot com, Go ask them. Anyways, back to this game.

453
00:24:59,279 --> 00:25:01,920
I like Boston here because I like Bao and I

454
00:25:02,039 --> 00:25:06,559
like his stats against the Orioles, and I have the

455
00:25:06,599 --> 00:25:12,599
lineups pretty even. I like Boston's bullpen better and Dietrich

456
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,400
Ends is a guy who I've watched since since he

457
00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:18,680
was in Japan, and I really didn't like him. He

458
00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:21,200
played for Sebu a couple of years and he was

459
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,559
just average. He couldn't even make the number one rotation

460
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,039
spot on his own team in Japan. So don't I

461
00:25:28,079 --> 00:25:30,359
don't really have a lot of faith in him. I

462
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,440
don't really know what he's done this year. Oh he's

463
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,440
one and two with a four nine seventy ra Oh,

464
00:25:37,799 --> 00:25:41,599
not a lot of faith in that. So it would

465
00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:45,039
be red Sox or nothing here, Sean, just give it

466
00:25:45,079 --> 00:25:48,160
a rest, dude, You're so lame. Anyway, that's my thought

467
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,079
on this. Boston or nothing for me.

468
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,559
Speaker 1: I'm getting more interested in the Orioles as I look

469
00:25:55,599 --> 00:25:58,200
at Twitter, so I kind of I kind of you know,

470
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,880
Dietrich Ends is really in a bullpen guy the last

471
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,200
month plus, like when he got called so and I

472
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,079
had to kind of look this up because early in

473
00:26:07,079 --> 00:26:09,079
the year when he was with Detroit, he was a

474
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,480
starter at Toledo. Then he got called up. If you

475
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:14,000
remember we talked about him. Actually we gave out a

476
00:26:14,039 --> 00:26:16,680
winner and he ends on the show. Believe he started

477
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,839
a day game against maybe it was the A's and

478
00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:22,279
he pitched really good. We ended up kind of cashing

479
00:26:22,319 --> 00:26:24,759
with him, and then he had a couple of good starts,

480
00:26:25,039 --> 00:26:28,599
moved to the bullpen. As Brian said, he got let go.

481
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,759
Oriols have picked him up and they've used him out

482
00:26:30,759 --> 00:26:31,599
of the bullpen since.

483
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: So what.

484
00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: It looks like he's going to be an opener here,

485
00:26:35,079 --> 00:26:37,440
and it looks like the guy that's gonna be behind

486
00:26:37,519 --> 00:26:40,799
him is going to be Ronsey Contreras, who has actually

487
00:26:40,839 --> 00:26:43,079
thrown the ball pretty good at Norfolk as a starter.

488
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,799
So that's actually pretty That's far more appealing to me

489
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,680
than a Dietrich Ends start because it looks like they're

490
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,799
gonna probably let Ends go once through. He'll face the

491
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,599
lefties in that order, the Roman Anthony's and the lefties

492
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,519
they have at the top of the order. I think

493
00:26:58,519 --> 00:27:00,799
he'll be more than one inning. I'm guessing that they're

494
00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:04,480
going to probably let Ends go too, and maybe let

495
00:27:04,599 --> 00:27:06,640
him go until he sort of gets himself into trouble.

496
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:09,160
If you look at his recent relief outings, there's a

497
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,559
lot of two inning outings there, so I think you

498
00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:15,640
see Ends for two. Rosey and Treras is a totally

499
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,720
different look. I mean, he's gonna come from the right side,

500
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,599
throwing stuff with movement. Like I said, I thought, he's

501
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,680
thrown it well for Norfolk for most of the year.

502
00:27:24,319 --> 00:27:27,079
That's actually pretty appealing, and I wonder if that's maybe

503
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,960
why the Orioles are taking some money because I kind

504
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,039
of see that being a tough setup for Boston having

505
00:27:34,039 --> 00:27:36,839
to deal with Ends for two innings, and then Rosey

506
00:27:36,839 --> 00:27:39,000
can Treris, who they probably you know, I don't know

507
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:41,640
if they've ever seen him. Where did he spend most

508
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,960
of his time Brian Pittsburgh when he was up with

509
00:27:44,039 --> 00:27:45,799
the in the league for most of the time. Was

510
00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:46,440
he a pirate?

511
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was a guy that was highly touted for

512
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:56,240
Pittsburgh and never really worked out. But we've seen pictures

513
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,519
travel from one place to another. They make a couple adjustments.

514
00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:06,079
Other than Nick Abel who still thinks at least so

515
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:10,160
far with Minnesota as he did with Philadelphia, But yeah,

516
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,640
every team makes a little bit of adjustments. And you know,

517
00:28:13,039 --> 00:28:15,160
even though Ends has that four point nine to seven

518
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,960
ERA is expected dras three point five seven, he's only

519
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,920
thrown fifty five major league innings. And he's a lefty,

520
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,640
and I just love lefties that people don't see very often.

521
00:28:27,319 --> 00:28:30,160
And so we saw it yesterday with the Cleveland pitcher

522
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,160
and he's done it two starts in a row. I

523
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,640
think Ends will probably go three innings, but well, we'll

524
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:36,799
see how this works out.

525
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, and with a guy like Ends, I mean, you

526
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,680
talk about like good expected era numbers. You would like

527
00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:46,079
to think that that his numbers trended toward that as

528
00:28:46,119 --> 00:28:48,720
he if they're going to keep him in this relief role, right,

529
00:28:48,759 --> 00:28:51,400
because they're they're clearly putting him as an opener to

530
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,839
set him up for success. I know the Red Sox

531
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,759
have a couple of lefties at the top of their order,

532
00:28:56,119 --> 00:28:58,319
and they must They wouldn't put him as an opener

533
00:28:58,319 --> 00:29:00,359
if they didn't like his matchup. Again, it's like the

534
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,359
first five Red Sox hitters. So yeah, I think ends

535
00:29:04,359 --> 00:29:07,200
could have success. And then suddenly you get Rosey Contreras

536
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,920
throwing some nasty stuff from the right side. Like I said,

537
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,200
I've I've caught two of his starts at Norfolk. I

538
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:17,079
thought he's thrown it really, really solid. So yeah, Orioles

539
00:29:17,079 --> 00:29:19,000
I think are worth a flyer at plus price, and

540
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:21,279
I like Orioles plus one and a half as well.

541
00:29:22,279 --> 00:29:23,920
If I didn't put the Rays in the parlay, I

542
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,119
may have. I may probably put that. I don't know.

543
00:29:26,279 --> 00:29:29,319
I am I allowed to change now, I'm gonna leave it.

544
00:29:29,359 --> 00:29:31,160
Let's leave the race for now. I might change by

545
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,640
the end of the show. All right, Let's uh, I'm gonna.

546
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 3: Put the Red Sox in the parlay. But all right,

547
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,200
so no, no, no, no, I won't.

548
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: Wait, I'll leave Rays. I'm gonna leave Rays. But I

549
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,880
do I do think orioles have some value. Knowing that

550
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,519
that's gonna be the setup. I think that's a tough

551
00:29:45,559 --> 00:29:50,160
setup for the Red Sox. Okay, let's move on, chats,

552
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,119
fire and away. We love it. We we love all

553
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,759
the all the interaction, all the listen. There's no there's

554
00:29:57,799 --> 00:30:01,480
no wrong comment. There's no If you want to say, Trigg,

555
00:30:01,599 --> 00:30:04,319
you suddenly are are dog shit because you're owing six

556
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,279
the last three days. That's fine. I'll take that. I

557
00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:09,480
was five and zero on Saturday. But hey, this is

558
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:11,440
how it goes. Brian Leonard. I wish I could go

559
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,720
one and one every day, but it doesn't work like that.

560
00:30:13,799 --> 00:30:15,880
Sometimes you win with for you, sometimes you lose a few.

561
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,200
We love the comments in the interaction, regardless. Someone said

562
00:30:20,279 --> 00:30:21,880
terrible pick at him. I'm not sure if they're talking

563
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,119
about that pick or last nights, but they were both

564
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,680
equally bad. But yeah, we love the comments. Hop on

565
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,920
to the wager Talk YouTube channel. Drop us a comment

566
00:30:31,079 --> 00:30:34,759
or a like or subscribe. We appreciate any interaction and it.

567
00:30:34,839 --> 00:30:39,759
Lets us keep keep doing this going forward. Did you

568
00:30:39,799 --> 00:30:42,839
guys win the parlay yesterday? No? I think I think

569
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,880
two of the legs lost. We got to get a

570
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,440
parlay winner. We are basically back to even, and last

571
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,559
time we were back to even, we cashed one, so

572
00:30:50,599 --> 00:30:54,079
maybe we'll cash one today. We'll keep trying. But I

573
00:30:54,079 --> 00:30:56,039
want to go to this game because as if the

574
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,839
chat is not fired up enough, let's let's see if

575
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,400
we can get a more turned over here. Because the A's, yeah,

576
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,240
they're dangerous and the Tigers have found that out firsthand

577
00:31:06,279 --> 00:31:10,440
the last two days. And it doesn't surprise me, Brian Leonard.

578
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,599
It surprises me that Scooball blew the lead on Monday.

579
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,400
I like the Tigers at the price in that game

580
00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:19,759
once the A's took the money and got Tigers down

581
00:31:19,799 --> 00:31:21,960
with Schoobull to like a dollar eighty. Yesterday I did

582
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,759
a video for the wager Talk YouTube channel gave out

583
00:31:24,759 --> 00:31:26,960
the A's, they got the win, and I'll continue to

584
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,559
make the same point. The Tigers took their foot off

585
00:31:29,599 --> 00:31:31,480
the gas in that series against the Mariners and they

586
00:31:31,519 --> 00:31:33,920
have not been able to recover since. And they're just

587
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:35,759
a team that they need to be. They need to

588
00:31:35,759 --> 00:31:37,680
do all the little things right because they're not talented

589
00:31:37,759 --> 00:31:40,759
enough to win games unless they're doing all the little

590
00:31:40,759 --> 00:31:42,960
things right. Brian, they're not doing the little things right.

591
00:31:43,119 --> 00:31:46,079
They've lost two games in this series. Do the A's

592
00:31:46,079 --> 00:31:47,160
win again today.

593
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 2: Well, they could very well. I talked about Detroit when

594
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,920
they got such a big lead in the division. We've

595
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:57,960
seen it with the Dodgers, and Dodgers haven't been able

596
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,519
to come out of it either. But I is going

597
00:32:00,519 --> 00:32:04,519
today against Morales. Miles is about a one one, twenty five,

598
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,839
twenty three favorites something like that totals ten and a half.

599
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:14,599
When you take a look at the ballpark factors for today, UH,

600
00:32:14,839 --> 00:32:17,960
this is expected to be the highest scoring game over

601
00:32:18,119 --> 00:32:21,079
what we would normally have. Are the winds blowing out here,

602
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,759
and they're expecting twenty one percent more runs in UH

603
00:32:26,319 --> 00:32:28,319
in Sacramento than you when you have in a normal

604
00:32:28,599 --> 00:32:34,079
ballpark in Major League Baseball. Mies is a guy who

605
00:32:34,839 --> 00:32:36,960
surprised me a little bit earlier in the season. He's

606
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,759
starting to fade a little bit now as we expect

607
00:32:39,759 --> 00:32:42,440
still three point six eight ERA three point seven to

608
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,559
eight expected one point two seven whip he's always had

609
00:32:45,559 --> 00:32:48,799
a little problem with the whip. But he's he's bitched,

610
00:32:48,799 --> 00:32:51,319
all right. I mean, he's highly touted and it's his

611
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,480
time is going to come. But Detroit's had a lot

612
00:32:54,559 --> 00:32:57,799
of these guys that very much like Cleveland, where they've

613
00:32:57,799 --> 00:32:59,599
had these guys that were supposed to be a lot

614
00:32:59,599 --> 00:33:01,480
better than what they ended up turning up to be.

615
00:33:02,799 --> 00:33:07,240
Miz is great eighty thirty percent, walk percentile extension eighty eighth,

616
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:12,039
but everything else is fifty percent or lower. I do

617
00:33:12,119 --> 00:33:15,519
have some concerns about him. Does throw five different pitches

618
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,720
at ten percent or more? I do like that Morales

619
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:25,319
going for the A's here. He's only pitched four games,

620
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,200
three starts, fifteen innings total, fifteen point two one point

621
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,160
seven to two ERA, but a four point five to

622
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,839
four expected. He's been lucky thus far. One point one

623
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,039
five whip. His fastball velocity is in the eighty eighth

624
00:33:39,079 --> 00:33:42,440
percentele He throws ninety seven point one miles an hour,

625
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,440
and he does throw that fifty three percent of the

626
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:50,599
time he throws. Basically, he's a three pitch pitcher, sweeper change.

627
00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:53,519
His slider throws a cutter one percent, but most of

628
00:33:53,519 --> 00:33:56,799
his stuff has not been that impressive, but it is

629
00:33:56,839 --> 00:33:59,359
been small stable stized of only fifteen point two winnings.

630
00:34:00,359 --> 00:34:03,599
He's a guy, he's only twenty two. He will likely

631
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,240
end up being the closer for the as now. The

632
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:11,360
trades Miller away. He's their number one prospect, and I

633
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,719
think we can get a few good innings out of

634
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:19,360
them here against against an opponent in Detroit there really

635
00:34:19,519 --> 00:34:23,159
isn't playing as they did earlier in the season. They

636
00:34:23,199 --> 00:34:26,480
faded a little. Everybody when you get off to the

637
00:34:26,519 --> 00:34:28,599
second of start they had, we know what was all

638
00:34:28,639 --> 00:34:32,639
going to happen, and but they played a little bit

639
00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:36,559
better lately. I believe they're what only seventy three to

640
00:34:36,559 --> 00:34:41,639
the last. Let me take a quick look here standings

641
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:46,639
Detroit six and four of their last ten, so they're

642
00:34:46,639 --> 00:34:50,000
not killing anybody. They're still they go six and four

643
00:34:50,079 --> 00:34:51,800
the rest of the way. They went in allian slide

644
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:56,119
in this division. So don't like Detroit here. We prefer

645
00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:00,079
the athletics. Don't know if I'll get there, but I

646
00:35:00,519 --> 00:35:03,400
do like the way this Morales pitches, and he's a

647
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:04,280
lot of fun to watch.

648
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Morales is the wild card here, but

649
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,239
my numbers like him a lot. By the way, guys,

650
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,280
I do have a five percent play out today and

651
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,719
are free playloaded at my page at wagytalk dot com.

652
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,440
Go take a look. I'm sure my colleagues here are

653
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,280
going to have something up if they don't already. I

654
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,440
love how you guys comment when I lose a game,

655
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,679
but when I went on an eighteen and two run,

656
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,159
nobody said anything. It's kind of funny. Anyways, regarding this game,

657
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,480
Morales is kind of the wild card, but he's pitched well.

658
00:35:37,639 --> 00:35:40,440
My numbers really like him. The question is is the

659
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,119
sample size large enough?

660
00:35:42,519 --> 00:35:42,639
Speaker 2: Now?

661
00:35:42,679 --> 00:35:45,679
Speaker 3: I got these two lineups pretty neck and neck here,

662
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,280
but I got the A's with the better bullpen and

663
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,599
the better starter. But you know, I take a look deeper.

664
00:35:51,639 --> 00:35:55,280
Mice is not that bad on the road. So the

665
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,880
A's were just blasting the ball last week, but they've

666
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,840
cooled off quite a bit. Got both of these teams

667
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:05,519
ranked number twelve in run production in the last or

668
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,039
current form, So it would be A's or anything. But

669
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,039
I'm gonna lay off it because Tigers are a good team.

670
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,199
I mean, I'll give them props for that. They are

671
00:36:15,199 --> 00:36:18,679
a good team. I was just joking around earlier They're

672
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,119
a decent team, and I it's really hard to like

673
00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:24,480
win three in a row against a really good team.

674
00:36:25,119 --> 00:36:28,960
So the way they lost yesterday it was a little

675
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,840
bit heartbreaking, though I don't know. I'm a little torn,

676
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,159
and when I'm torn, I just lay off because not

677
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,119
betting is not losing. So this sounds good to me,

678
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,639
So I'll lay off this game. But if I had

679
00:36:39,639 --> 00:36:44,400
to bet it, I would bet the A's.

680
00:36:46,519 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: You muted, all right, dogs were dogs were going nuts

681
00:36:50,639 --> 00:36:55,079
and dogs, what's so exciting up there? Yeah, I would say.

682
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:57,599
I would say the way they lost two days ago

683
00:36:57,679 --> 00:36:59,599
is even more heartbreaking. You had a three nothing lead

684
00:36:59,679 --> 00:37:01,679
with your with your guy on the Mountain school and

685
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,840
it got blown up, and then you know, yesterday, lose

686
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,880
a competitive game like that, could only go back with

687
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,519
the A's. Here a couple of reasons. One I've kind

688
00:37:09,519 --> 00:37:11,679
of said this all year with the A's. They're so young,

689
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,920
and there's so much upside that when they're when things

690
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,559
are going good, I feel like they don't know any better,

691
00:37:17,679 --> 00:37:20,519
Like they don't know that they're not supposed to win games,

692
00:37:20,519 --> 00:37:22,519
you know what I mean. They're just out there playing,

693
00:37:22,519 --> 00:37:26,079
and they're so talented, guys like Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson,

694
00:37:26,079 --> 00:37:28,639
when things are running good for them, they tend to

695
00:37:28,679 --> 00:37:30,440
just go out the next day and continue to play

696
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,599
well and then But if you go look at the

697
00:37:32,599 --> 00:37:36,800
A's season to this point, there's a reason that they

698
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,559
come into play sixty two and seventy two, and that

699
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,280
reason is when things are not going good, they tend

700
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,760
to snowball in the other direction. So I don't want

701
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:46,719
to bet the I don't want to fade the A's

702
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,760
when they've now won what do we decide, They've won

703
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,239
eight of their last eleven games. I think they've won

704
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,000
eight of eleven something like that. That's not I don't

705
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,239
want to fade the A's in that stretch because it

706
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,440
tells me that things are going well. They just got

707
00:38:02,519 --> 00:38:04,880
Jacob Wilson back. That's a huge boost to the lineup.

708
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,360
Wilson was out for a little while, So I like

709
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:11,719
the A's from that standpoint. The pitching, like the upside

710
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,719
would be with Morales. The problem is going back to

711
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:18,360
what Brian said, he profiles more as a reliever. To me,

712
00:38:19,159 --> 00:38:22,000
he was throwing ninety nine in that start against the Mariners.

713
00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:25,199
So you want to talk about like Morales's v LO

714
00:38:25,559 --> 00:38:28,119
being like, what do they have his fastball at stack

715
00:38:28,159 --> 00:38:32,000
cast maybe ninety seven that Mariners game. He was ninety

716
00:38:32,079 --> 00:38:33,840
nine on the black for a lot of that game

717
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,719
and the Mariners had no chance. Problem is can he

718
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,840
keep that going game to game, because we've seen times

719
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:43,159
where he's walked a few guys gotten in trouble. To

720
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,000
the Tigers credit, they're very good at at least if

721
00:38:46,039 --> 00:38:47,519
you look at their whole season, they're very good at

722
00:38:47,519 --> 00:38:51,159
capitalizing on base runners. They run the base as well,

723
00:38:51,199 --> 00:38:55,519
they go first to third well. So it's like, you're right, TV,

724
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,960
Morales is the wild card because he comes out like

725
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,199
he did against Seattle and he's hitting horners, throwing ninety nine.

726
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,039
I don't think this Tiger's line is gonna do much

727
00:39:03,039 --> 00:39:05,760
against him. The problem is if he's giving up a

728
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,360
couple of cheap base runners like he did two starts

729
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,239
to go where he had five walks and couldn't get

730
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,559
out of the third inning, that's a problem. So ultimately,

731
00:39:13,639 --> 00:39:15,639
I think the value is kind of gone on the

732
00:39:15,639 --> 00:39:18,039
a's here. I would have wanted like a little bit

733
00:39:18,039 --> 00:39:20,480
more of a plus price or maybe a better chance

734
00:39:20,519 --> 00:39:22,480
to take the plus one and a half. But I

735
00:39:22,519 --> 00:39:24,559
just don't like what I've seen from the Tigers right now,

736
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,840
and I don't want to bet against Morales because I

737
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,719
know he's got If you watched his last start, his

738
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,119
stuff was incredible. Sweeper ninety nine on the Black Mariners

739
00:39:34,159 --> 00:39:36,159
couldn't touch him. I don't think the Tigers would be

740
00:39:36,199 --> 00:39:38,519
able to touch him if he shows up like that.

741
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,320
So you know, maybe a couple guys are in the

742
00:39:41,519 --> 00:39:44,360
in the chat saying, like a's team total. I don't

743
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,920
mind that this one could get up there again in

744
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,639
the score. So yeah, that's that's a good conversation. And

745
00:39:52,079 --> 00:39:53,599
not really quite sure what you do with that one,

746
00:39:53,599 --> 00:39:58,039
but it should be a good one to watch. Let's

747
00:39:58,039 --> 00:40:04,320
see David. David says, how about those Astros yesterday? Yeah,

748
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,800
I was that was something we were kind of joking

749
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:13,639
off air Tanner Gordon, he's like third straight good start.

750
00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:16,280
But Brian Leonard, how much of that was Tanner Gordon?

751
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,079
How much of that is the Astros was just being

752
00:40:18,119 --> 00:40:20,519
totally lost at the plate right now? And do you

753
00:40:20,559 --> 00:40:22,800
see any angle into Astra's rockies today?

754
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, the last fourteen days w RC plus on Houston

755
00:40:28,599 --> 00:40:33,920
is sixty five, just ahead of Cleveland at thirty six. Cleveland.

756
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,159
Cleveland was thirty six yesterday. There's still thirty six and

757
00:40:36,199 --> 00:40:40,719
they won. I'll tell you how bad their hitting is. Yeah, Houston,

758
00:40:41,119 --> 00:40:43,760
we thought we were bricking out of it, but they

759
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,519
sure didn't come to play yesterday. And to get to

760
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:53,599
Hunter Brown, that was pretty impressive. It'll happen. This is baseball.

761
00:40:54,079 --> 00:40:57,199
Houston probably thought they had the game won before it was,

762
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,480
before the game even started. That happens all the time.

763
00:41:01,119 --> 00:41:04,920
Let's say like for today. You know, if if they

764
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,800
hadn't a lost yesterday, they probably would have overlooked Orlander

765
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:13,280
on today's card. But we're getting Valdez lefty at home.

766
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:17,480
He's about a two ninety five favorite here, two ninety

767
00:41:17,519 --> 00:41:20,960
let's go to ninety eight to the under minus twenty

768
00:41:21,079 --> 00:41:26,920
or so. In this one. We're looking at Colorado. As

769
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,880
I pointed out, they're not a good road team at all,

770
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:31,480
and they have not been a good road team for

771
00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:35,840
years and years, but they were a good one yesterday.

772
00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:40,800
That happens. Golander comes in with a six point nine

773
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,960
one ERA five point five seven expected. He's two and

774
00:41:45,039 --> 00:41:48,039
ten on the season, and he's a better pitcher than that.

775
00:41:48,199 --> 00:41:50,840
Just so happens he pitches in Colorado. It's only twenty

776
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,760
three fastball have lost. He's great ninety seven point eight

777
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:59,599
miles per hour ninety fourth percentile, but expected dra seventh

778
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:04,679
chase right fifth, barrel rate second, having a barrel rate

779
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,119
in the second percent towel and pitching in Colorado is

780
00:42:07,119 --> 00:42:10,039
a not a good thing. He's going to be a

781
00:42:10,039 --> 00:42:13,639
good pitcher on the road eventually. Who knows what he

782
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,559
does in Colorado? For Freelan is the only one I

783
00:42:16,599 --> 00:42:22,880
can remember that just pitched well there lately. But frem

784
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,000
Rivaldez three point three two era three point eight zero

785
00:42:26,119 --> 00:42:31,119
expected one point two to one whip, but his extension

786
00:42:31,119 --> 00:42:33,000
is only in the seven percent tole is hard to

787
00:42:33,039 --> 00:42:35,480
hit rate in the ninth percentile average jacksonvillea se in

788
00:42:35,519 --> 00:42:39,000
the thirteenth so he can be hit ground bow rate

789
00:42:39,079 --> 00:42:41,679
ninety eight percent of which is where he makes his money.

790
00:42:41,679 --> 00:42:44,440
He throws that sinker forty five percent of the time,

791
00:42:44,559 --> 00:42:48,760
keeps people from hitting home runs and that means a lot.

792
00:42:49,039 --> 00:42:52,760
Look at the Soriano for the Angels. I mean, the

793
00:42:53,559 --> 00:42:56,440
guy knows how to get ground balls. He had like

794
00:42:56,519 --> 00:42:59,679
four double plays the other day again, and it's those

795
00:42:59,679 --> 00:43:03,039
are guys you like to bet on, So I think

796
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:06,920
Valdeza have some successor I think Houston wins. Do I

797
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,039
want to lay that number? I said yesterday No, I

798
00:43:09,039 --> 00:43:11,079
did not want to lay that number, and today I

799
00:43:11,119 --> 00:43:13,119
don't want to lay that number, so I will be passing.

800
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, Franber Valdez has not been himself lately, but take

801
00:43:19,159 --> 00:43:21,000
a look at his last starts. Three of them have

802
00:43:21,039 --> 00:43:23,480
been on the road. If you look at his homi ra,

803
00:43:23,639 --> 00:43:27,119
it's one eight five, which is really impressive. And his

804
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,679
career numbers against this team are also impressive against these

805
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,599
batters to fourteen average against with the six forty three ops,

806
00:43:34,639 --> 00:43:37,960
but that's only fourteen at bats against. Can't really put

807
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,639
any credence in that. But you can put credence in

808
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,199
his homy ra at one eighty five. Granted, his last

809
00:43:44,199 --> 00:43:46,920
four starts have not been good. He's given up I

810
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,199
think thirteen runs in his last two starts, but not good.

811
00:43:51,159 --> 00:43:55,440
But they you know, his homeira is incredible. So I'm

812
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,800
a little conflicted here. Astros definitely are not worth the

813
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,599
minus three hundred price because look what happened yesterday. Can

814
00:44:02,639 --> 00:44:04,719
the Rockies win too in a row? I tend to

815
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:07,360
be one of those guys who thinks yesterday has really

816
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,280
not much to do with how today works out. But

817
00:44:11,519 --> 00:44:14,119
humans are humans, and human nature is human nature, and

818
00:44:14,199 --> 00:44:17,880
sometimes you know, something like yesterday's stings a little bit

819
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:19,840
and you come out with a little extra oomph to

820
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,559
win the game. Astros are definitely a better team, but

821
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,880
I'm definitely not playing this game after what happened yesterday,

822
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,000
So yeah, I'll pass on this. But I don't think

823
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,119
there's any way. I don't think the Rockies have a

824
00:44:33,119 --> 00:44:35,360
snowballs chance in hell of winning this game.

825
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 1: If I'm Chase Dollander, I'm so annoyed at the fact

826
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,000
that I got drafted by the Rockies and that they

827
00:44:43,039 --> 00:44:45,880
contend that they continue to do what they do. He

828
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,559
was their first round pick in twenty twenty three. Okay,

829
00:44:48,639 --> 00:44:50,960
that's two years ago. For those of you keeping score

830
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,960
at home, that's not that long ago. It would not be.

831
00:44:55,199 --> 00:44:58,760
He has a ninety eight mile an hour fastball. He

832
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,519
does not know how to pitch at the big league

833
00:45:01,559 --> 00:45:04,400
level yet. Okay, he's got a five pitch pitch mix.

834
00:45:04,639 --> 00:45:08,119
He's got a great basketball ninety eight. If you're throwing

835
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:11,400
ninety eight in Major League baseball, yet you can't get

836
00:45:11,599 --> 00:45:14,920
anyone to swing at any other pitch that's not like

837
00:45:15,039 --> 00:45:17,840
right over the middle of the plate. You should be

838
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,840
in Triple A, especially as a twenty three year old prospect.

839
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,880
Yet the Rockies continue to just trot him out at

840
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,119
the big league level when they're sixty games under five hundred,

841
00:45:28,119 --> 00:45:31,559
which makes virtually no sense. They could there's other options,

842
00:45:31,599 --> 00:45:33,719
they have other guys that could get pummeled at the

843
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,320
big league level. This is a this is a team

844
00:45:36,679 --> 00:45:40,199
that's thirty eight and ninety four, and it's like, again,

845
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,320
I think it's unfair to have Dolander up here because

846
00:45:43,519 --> 00:45:48,480
he should be sort of harnessing his pitch mix and

847
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:52,039
sort of honing his craft against hitters that he can

848
00:45:52,079 --> 00:45:55,679
actually beat. Right now, even with the Astros having their

849
00:45:55,760 --> 00:46:00,719
hitting woes, he can't beat like big league line. I mean, yes,

850
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,639
he's had like a couple of good starts every once

851
00:46:02,639 --> 00:46:05,239
in a while. It's gonna happen when you throw ninety eight,

852
00:46:06,039 --> 00:46:08,039
But he doesn't. No one swings at anything else. So

853
00:46:08,119 --> 00:46:11,239
he's out there and it's like he's got a good fastball,

854
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,239
but he's got five other pitches that any big leaguer

855
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,280
just waits for and crushes, and so I don't see

856
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,960
how that doesn't happen again here, even with the the

857
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,840
you know kind of how cold the Astros have been.

858
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:28,480
They saw Dollander earlier this year at coors Field and

859
00:46:28,599 --> 00:46:30,480
they had him out in the third inning. Six runs

860
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:35,079
on seven hits, two and two thirds, one strikeout, shocker,

861
00:46:35,559 --> 00:46:37,760
no one. No one's swinging at anything out of the

862
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,199
zone with him, and most guys can hit a ninety

863
00:46:41,199 --> 00:46:43,880
eight mile an hour fastball. So I'll go Astros team

864
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,760
total over. I do think you're you're gonna see, like

865
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:48,840
when the Astros score, they're gonna probably put up a

866
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,119
crooked number. It's only four and a half and you

867
00:46:51,159 --> 00:46:53,480
can get it for like a dollar twenty five dollars thirty.

868
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,280
That feels like a good bet. I wouldn't lay the

869
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,920
the minus two fifty because that's a crazy price on

870
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,320
a team that's not playing well. But I think five

871
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,920
runs is very it's very doable for the Astros here,

872
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,360
or like turn Buckle Tommy says, you could go Donander

873
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,320
over two and a half runs. I don't. I don't

874
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,840
mind that either. I would say I think this is

875
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:19,920
the day that the Astros scores some runs. All right, Brian,

876
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,360
do you want to throw a game out there that

877
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:22,679
we haven't talked about yet.

878
00:47:25,119 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: There really isn't a lot right now. I'm really that

879
00:47:28,159 --> 00:47:34,880
invested in at this point. I'm so uh yeah. Somebody

880
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:41,239
else has got something they want to Mark.

881
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,039
Speaker 1: Kinson and like three other people said, can we cover

882
00:47:41,119 --> 00:47:45,559
Braves Marlin? So let's cover braves Marlins and that's gonna be.

883
00:47:45,639 --> 00:47:49,039
It looks like we've got Joey Wentz and Ryan Gusto

884
00:47:49,119 --> 00:47:50,960
in his new home of Miami, Florida.

885
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: Uh Gusto has been giving up runs like Gusto. Uh

886
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,599
in Gusto, I guess you can say. But Joey Wentz

887
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:06,199
five point twenty five bra four point three nine expected

888
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,599
one point four to seven whip. His extension is great.

889
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:13,119
He's six foot five, ninety three percentile. Other than that,

890
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:21,239
he looked really good his first few starts for for Atlanta,

891
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,960
but lately not so good. He had seven starts on

892
00:48:25,039 --> 00:48:32,239
the season. He's the I guess the the shine is

893
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:36,519
off of Joey Wentz as a starter here. He didn't

894
00:48:36,519 --> 00:48:39,320
start anything last year twenty twenty three, had nineteen starts,

895
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:44,000
but six point nine oh e ra Averageacson velastly seventh

896
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:48,880
percentile walker at fifteenth hard hit fifteenth. Don't want Joey

897
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:54,039
Wentz here. I think Miami will get to him. They're

898
00:48:54,039 --> 00:48:57,079
a better team than what they've shown. But I don't

899
00:48:57,119 --> 00:48:59,639
want Ryan Gusto either. He comes in with a five

900
00:48:59,639 --> 00:49:02,440
point zero five e R four point one six expected

901
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,360
one point four to zher whip. Other than the walk

902
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,199
right in the sixty nine percentile, everything else is league

903
00:49:08,199 --> 00:49:11,280
average or worse. So we got two starters here that

904
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:16,159
I'm not really crazy about either one. I do believe

905
00:49:16,159 --> 00:49:21,159
this might be the other game that is a getaway

906
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:27,400
day if I'm thinking correctly, But I I there's there

907
00:49:27,519 --> 00:49:29,559
seems to be a little bit of value here on Miami,

908
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:36,280
but the line is currently about one twenty one twenty

909
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,559
eight for Atlanta eight and a half. I'm just not

910
00:49:39,639 --> 00:49:41,039
going to be able to get there because I just

911
00:49:41,039 --> 00:49:45,480
don't trust Gusto. He's looked bad. He didn't usually Miami

912
00:49:45,559 --> 00:49:47,440
is very good with these guys once they get him.

913
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,760
He hasn't been very impressive overall. So I'll sit this

914
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,320
one out. There's other games to play.

915
00:49:55,199 --> 00:49:58,280
Speaker 3: Mey Gusto, Cervesa. I can say I like beer in

916
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:02,639
three different languages, sitas me gusto surveys. I like beer,

917
00:50:04,039 --> 00:50:06,719
So I have a five percent play out today. Go

918
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:09,719
grab it, guys. It's major League Baseball. It's a money

919
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:13,519
line play and it's a good one. So regarding this game,

920
00:50:13,599 --> 00:50:18,400
this these two teams, I have them the closest of

921
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,519
any matchup today. So I am not playing this game.

922
00:50:21,559 --> 00:50:24,599
We have two teams that are not making the playoffs,

923
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:28,920
playing for stats, basically not a lot of motivation, kind

924
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:33,719
of playing out the season here. I got Atlanta hitting better,

925
00:50:34,119 --> 00:50:38,000
I got Miami's bullpen better, and I got the two

926
00:50:38,039 --> 00:50:41,599
starting pitchers basically neck and neck. So I am not

927
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,280
going to play this game, even though I do like beer.

928
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joey Wentz, if you remember last week, that was

929
00:50:51,559 --> 00:50:54,639
I believe Friday, the first time I gave the Mets

930
00:50:54,639 --> 00:50:56,599
out and it was a winner, And I kind of

931
00:50:56,639 --> 00:51:00,599
talked about Wentz being just like not not really profiling

932
00:51:00,599 --> 00:51:02,360
as a guy that's gonna have success as like a

933
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,880
starter over six innings. I mean, he that's kind of

934
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,760
what happened. He I think he got blown up maybe

935
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,400
in the third or the fourth inning of that game.

936
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,679
Turned into six runs on nine hits over three and

937
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:18,199
a third. You know, that's you know, the Marlins are

938
00:51:18,199 --> 00:51:20,000
a team that I've been a little bit hesitant to

939
00:51:20,039 --> 00:51:23,880
back recently. I think the Kyle Stowers injury really sucks

940
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,800
for them. I mean, he was kind of having the breakout.

941
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,320
He was the star of that team. But Stower's probably

942
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,039
not as important in a matchup against Wentz, who's a

943
00:51:33,119 --> 00:51:36,960
lefty and he's very tough on lefties. So again, here

944
00:51:37,079 --> 00:51:39,679
is like I've kind of been out on the Marlins.

945
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,159
If you remember earlier in the year, I was very

946
00:51:42,639 --> 00:51:45,159
high on the Marlins and looking for spots to play them.

947
00:51:45,519 --> 00:51:49,400
I've been out on them lately. But here, as a dog,

948
00:51:50,039 --> 00:51:51,920
I think it would have to be Marlins or Pass.

949
00:51:52,039 --> 00:51:55,840
And then you know, for Gusto, he's a guy I

950
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,400
didn't really care for when he was with the Astros organization.

951
00:51:59,199 --> 00:52:01,320
But I've liked with the Marlins can do with these

952
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,519
like pitchers that they sort of inherit from other places,

953
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,119
you know, and then they'll decide if they if they've

954
00:52:07,119 --> 00:52:08,639
done anything with them or not. But look at a

955
00:52:08,639 --> 00:52:12,000
guy like Jansen Junk who comes in didn't have much

956
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,480
success in his previous stop, and they kind of turned

957
00:52:14,519 --> 00:52:16,679
him into a serviceable player, and they've done that with

958
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:20,400
some bullpen arms as well this year. So I think

959
00:52:20,519 --> 00:52:23,599
because of that, even though Gusto hasn't thrown it great

960
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:27,280
yet since showing up in Miami, I think that there's

961
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,119
a part of me that thinks that maybe he's got

962
00:52:29,119 --> 00:52:32,800
some upside. And I still think the Marlins have far

963
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,599
more upside than the Braves, who I truly believe you're

964
00:52:35,639 --> 00:52:37,239
going to see the Braves, and maybe we started to

965
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:39,320
see it this weekend a little bit. I think you're

966
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,320
going to see the Braves sort of mentally check out.

967
00:52:41,599 --> 00:52:44,679
There's a lot of veterans on this team. As as

968
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,920
you guys have pointed out this, they're not They're not

969
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,440
going to the playoffs. And I do think we as

970
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:54,159
the calendar turns to September and you've got a roster

971
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,840
with guys like a Kuna mattlesin some of these like

972
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,920
older veteran guys, We're just going to start to see

973
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,480
this team go through the motions and they're going to

974
00:53:03,519 --> 00:53:05,559
be a team I want to bet against more often

975
00:53:05,599 --> 00:53:09,400
than not. So in Miami rubber match of the series,

976
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,039
I think the only way I could play this one

977
00:53:11,199 --> 00:53:14,800
is is Miami plus money. Not my favorite thing on

978
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:19,840
the board, but I would just take the value there. Okay,

979
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,639
let's see we have We've got five minutes left, six

980
00:53:24,679 --> 00:53:27,360
minutes left, and we still need parlay legs from both

981
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,480
of you guys. So do either of you have a

982
00:53:29,519 --> 00:53:31,719
game that we haven't talked about yet or do you

983
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:33,679
want to just lock in your parlay on something we

984
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:35,000
have talked about so far.

985
00:53:35,519 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just go back and talk about that Tampa

986
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:44,639
Bay game against Cleveland again. Why change if it's nothing's broke?

987
00:53:44,679 --> 00:53:48,880
As they say, Cleveland's offense is terrible, Rasmussen, I believe

988
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:52,239
we'll have some success against them, and the bullpen for

989
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,599
Tampa Bay looks pretty healthy. In this game. I'm going

990
00:53:55,639 --> 00:53:57,960
to play the Cleveland team total under three and a

991
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:01,679
half it minus one thirty five. I have only twice

992
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,719
in the last eleven games if they scored more than

993
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:08,960
three runs, and I don't see it breaking out here. Yesterday,

994
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,519
as I pointed out, they scored three runs early, were

995
00:54:11,559 --> 00:54:13,800
shut out the rest of the game, and that was

996
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:15,360
on the heels of being shut out three to the

997
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:19,400
last four games. So Cleveland's offense is not playing well

998
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,480
right now, and they're going up against pretty talented starter

999
00:54:22,599 --> 00:54:25,559
in Tampa Bay. So I'll play the team total under

1000
00:54:25,559 --> 00:54:28,360
three and a half at minus one thirty five. I

1001
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,559
don't think Cleveland will score four runs in this game.

1002
00:54:33,039 --> 00:54:33,519
Speaker 1: I think the.

1003
00:54:33,559 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 3: Play is a game we already covered. I'm gonna take Boston. Sorry, guys,

1004
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,639
I'm going against the Green here, but I like Boston

1005
00:54:39,639 --> 00:54:42,519
minus one fifty five on the money line. It looks

1006
00:54:42,559 --> 00:54:44,840
like we have enough time in the show to cover

1007
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:51,519
one more game. Now, wow, great, a lot of faith

1008
00:54:52,119 --> 00:54:57,119
deepik ends there in the market. Huh okay, unwarranted in

1009
00:54:57,159 --> 00:54:59,239
my opinion, but okay, I'll take it.

1010
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 1: We are we are gonna cover one more game because

1011
00:55:02,559 --> 00:55:06,079
I am I'm gonna change my game. Uh, mostly because

1012
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:08,679
I don't think we can have a raised money line

1013
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:10,679
and a Guardian's team total. I don't think. I know

1014
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:12,760
some of the legal sites are gonna let you parlay

1015
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:14,639
those together, but I know we have a lot of

1016
00:55:14,639 --> 00:55:17,960
people that play PPH and places that are not gonna

1017
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:21,519
allow that. So I'll let I'll let Brian take the

1018
00:55:21,519 --> 00:55:24,079
Guardians game. And so the first two legs are gonna

1019
00:55:24,079 --> 00:55:27,840
be red Sox on the money line, Guardians team total under,

1020
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,760
and I'm gonna I'm gonna throw out a third game.

1021
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,159
I'll throw out a leg of the parlay. It's a

1022
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:37,480
it's a little bit more juiced, but I don't care.

1023
00:55:37,599 --> 00:55:39,880
This is this is another leg I like, and we'll we'll,

1024
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,920
we'll give it the full rug. We've got time. I'm

1025
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:45,840
gonna talk. I want to talk Blue Jays Twins, Brian.

1026
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:47,480
I don't know how the Blue Jays choked that away

1027
00:55:47,559 --> 00:55:49,960
last night, but they did. But I don't think they

1028
00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:52,599
choke here. I like the favorite in this one, and

1029
00:55:53,679 --> 00:55:56,159
you know, I feel like almost I feel like there's

1030
00:55:56,199 --> 00:55:58,679
even some value at like minus one seventy when you

1031
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:01,239
consider both where both these teams are out right now.

1032
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,400
So Blue Jays Twins, how do you see this one?

1033
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 2: Well, I don't think there's value on it, but if

1034
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:09,480
you do, good for you.

1035
00:56:11,199 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 3: It.

1036
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 2: That's Richards what's Richardson coming up? He will take the

1037
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:22,840
place of Zebby, who they're pushing back a little bit.

1038
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,519
Eric Lower's been very good. He's lefty going against Minnesota.

1039
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,719
The current line is about about a one to eighty favorite,

1040
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:35,599
a total of nine. I agree. I thought I wanted Toronto,

1041
00:56:35,639 --> 00:56:37,199
but I didn't want to lay this kind of number

1042
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:41,880
Toronto's been so good for so long that you know

1043
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,599
they're going to be a little bit of a drop

1044
00:56:44,679 --> 00:56:47,000
back down a little bit, especially against a team like

1045
00:56:47,039 --> 00:56:50,239
Minnesota and the granted, but by the way they lost yesterday,

1046
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:54,119
maybe it doesn't happen today. But when I take a

1047
00:56:54,119 --> 00:56:57,760
look at these these guys, Richardson is four point two

1048
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:01,000
four e r A four point three expected one point

1049
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:03,920
four to oh whip. That's a little bit high. Everything

1050
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:06,639
on his card is all the stack Gass cards in

1051
00:57:06,639 --> 00:57:10,159
the blue except for his extension. So he's not a

1052
00:57:10,199 --> 00:57:13,159
guy I'm really looking to play. But then we've got

1053
00:57:13,599 --> 00:57:17,039
on the other side, we've got Eric Lauer, who, yes,

1054
00:57:17,119 --> 00:57:19,159
he's made some adjustments this year, he's been a totally

1055
00:57:19,199 --> 00:57:22,559
different pitcher. Two point seven six CRA three point three

1056
00:57:22,639 --> 00:57:26,360
seven expected one point eight whip. But his ground ball

1057
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,199
percent is in the third percentile, which means he throws

1058
00:57:29,239 --> 00:57:32,559
a lot of fly balls. And here this isn't a

1059
00:57:32,599 --> 00:57:37,719
good stadium if you're trying to avoid home runs. It's

1060
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:41,440
a pretty decent home run hitting ballpark. His fastball veloss

1061
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:44,280
he is only the fourteenth percentile Amway Jackson veloci the

1062
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,480
twenty fourth, so his numbers I'm taking with the grain

1063
00:57:47,519 --> 00:57:51,079
of salt a little bit. He's granted he's turned his

1064
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:55,400
career around after missing last year in the United States

1065
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:59,679
and the year before six point five six ERA small

1066
00:57:59,679 --> 00:58:03,320
sample size, forty six innings. But he's been much better

1067
00:58:03,519 --> 00:58:06,199
this season and he's been a big surprise. Good for Toronto,

1068
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,800
good for Lower But I just can't lay that number

1069
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:09,480
in this one.

1070
00:58:12,559 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Lower guy, I never really had a lot of

1071
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:17,920
faith in. But if you look at his numbers, especially

1072
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,559
against his team, really good stuff. He's got a two

1073
00:58:20,599 --> 00:58:23,239
four five VRA at home as well. It's only thirty

1074
00:58:23,239 --> 00:58:26,159
three innings, but I think that's enough to say he's

1075
00:58:26,159 --> 00:58:31,079
pretty good at home, two thirty one average against versus

1076
00:58:31,119 --> 00:58:34,599
these batters, but it's only a thirteen at bad sample size,

1077
00:58:34,639 --> 00:58:37,679
so that you definitely cannot use when I put these

1078
00:58:37,719 --> 00:58:42,840
two two teams together. Huge advantage in hitting for the

1079
00:58:43,159 --> 00:58:49,440
Blue Jays, but we expect that they've just been mashing Minnesota.

1080
00:58:49,559 --> 00:58:52,960
Mashing yesterday is not something I expected, but they certainly did.

1081
00:58:53,239 --> 00:58:54,960
Doesn't mean that they are all of a sudden a

1082
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,159
great hitting team. I have them ranked twenty six out

1083
00:58:57,159 --> 00:59:03,280
of thirty. Both bullpens perform underperforming grossly, and I got

1084
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:06,599
the starting pitchers kind of even. I'd give a slight

1085
00:59:06,679 --> 00:59:09,519
tip to Lour because of his head to head stats

1086
00:59:09,519 --> 00:59:13,000
and his home stats. Overall, I think the Blue Jays

1087
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:17,599
should be around minus one thirty minus one forty favorite,

1088
00:59:18,119 --> 00:59:20,440
and it looks like they are minus one eighty. So

1089
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,559
the price is a little too high, But I think

1090
00:59:22,679 --> 00:59:24,119
the right team is favorite.

1091
00:59:25,719 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm way off there. I got the Blue

1092
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:29,360
Jays as a two dollars favorite. That's why I said

1093
00:59:29,559 --> 00:59:32,199
they that there was some value. I also thought I

1094
00:59:32,559 --> 00:59:34,320
saw before I came on that there was some one

1095
00:59:34,559 --> 00:59:38,480
seventy fives and stuff like that. Yeah, obviously less value

1096
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:41,679
at minus one eighty five, but still perfectly fine to

1097
00:59:41,679 --> 00:59:45,440
throw in the parlay. I just kind of going back

1098
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:48,159
to what I said earlier this season, before it was

1099
00:59:48,199 --> 00:59:51,039
sort of known. I've been high on the Blue Jays

1100
00:59:51,079 --> 00:59:52,639
all year. I think they're the best team in the

1101
00:59:52,639 --> 00:59:55,400
American League. And you know, I want to talk about

1102
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:57,519
the Red Sox, like the Red Sox are starting to

1103
00:59:57,559 --> 00:59:59,239
put a little pressure on them. I don't think the

1104
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,400
Red Sox ca the J's in the division, but they're

1105
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:04,480
certainly making them think a little bit. I believe the

1106
01:00:04,559 --> 01:00:07,800
lead is down to four, and you know, you have

1107
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,599
the Blue Jays at home here. They come off of

1108
01:00:10,639 --> 01:00:13,840
a loss yesterday where you know, they took a lead

1109
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,239
into the ninth inning and gave it away, end up

1110
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:18,400
losing seven to five. A four run ninth inning for

1111
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:21,679
the Twins. I guess stuff like that's gonna happen. But

1112
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:24,800
I just think you get a Blue Jays team that's

1113
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,079
a little bit more on high alert here after blowing

1114
01:00:27,119 --> 01:00:30,360
the lead to them and the Twins. I'll go back

1115
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,679
and say it again, like they just winning is not

1116
01:00:33,719 --> 01:00:36,719
even like the second priority for them right now, Like

1117
01:00:37,199 --> 01:00:41,239
they still have many good players at Triple A, I'm

1118
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:44,599
not quite sure what the goal is with the way

1119
01:00:44,639 --> 01:00:46,760
that they're sort of, you know, working their pitching around.

1120
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:50,960
They've traded away every bullpen arm, so basically after the

1121
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,639
starter in any Twins game, you never know what you're

1122
01:00:53,679 --> 01:00:56,320
gonna get. And then you've got a guy like Simeon

1123
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,400
Woods Richardson, who hasn't thrown in the big league since

1124
01:00:59,639 --> 01:01:03,599
July and is not someone that I'm particularly high on

1125
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:07,239
in general. So Eric Lower, I think he's gonna, you know,

1126
01:01:07,679 --> 01:01:11,119
I think he's gonna want to make good on this,

1127
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:14,079
you know, spot back in the rotation, because by no

1128
01:01:14,199 --> 01:01:16,199
fault of his own, he kind of lost his rotation

1129
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:18,239
spot for a minute. I think they skipped him last

1130
01:01:18,239 --> 01:01:21,159
time around. So I don't think lower has thrown in

1131
01:01:21,239 --> 01:01:24,800
about eleven days. I think he's gonna pitch great. I

1132
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,760
don't like wood richardson. These two teams aren't even in

1133
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,679
the same stratosphere. And then you know, if you can't

1134
01:01:30,679 --> 01:01:33,119
get him early, the Jays certainly should be able to

1135
01:01:33,159 --> 01:01:36,880
get some runs late. So I if I'm just picking winners,

1136
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,280
I think the Blue Jays is the strongest matchup on

1137
01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:42,599
the card. The problem is you gotta lay minus one eighty,

1138
01:01:42,679 --> 01:01:44,960
so let's just do it in the parlay, Brian, Is

1139
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:47,039
that what we're at, like minus one eighty minus one

1140
01:01:47,079 --> 01:01:47,920
eighty five right there?

1141
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can get as low as seventy one Heritage

1142
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:57,840
or actually six sixty eight a circa. But most of

1143
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:01,719
the lesser books that will kick you out or in

1144
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:06,400
the higher number. So that tells me that Minnesota's got

1145
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:10,599
more value. So I would lean a little bit with Minnesota,

1146
01:02:10,639 --> 01:02:13,199
but you know, it's for your picket's not mine, and

1147
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:16,480
I'm not going to play Minnesota so we're looking at it.

1148
01:02:17,039 --> 01:02:18,480
We're all I would say about one eighty.

1149
01:02:19,679 --> 01:02:22,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think I think they pummel uh

1150
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,960
Simeon Wood Richardson and whatever the Twins can scrape up

1151
01:02:26,039 --> 01:02:28,000
to throw the last few innings of that game. So

1152
01:02:28,039 --> 01:02:32,000
I'll go Blue Jays. We have Blue Jay's money line,

1153
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,159
Red Sox money line, Guardians team total under three and

1154
01:02:35,199 --> 01:02:37,679
a half. So I'll read them again. It's Brian Leonard

1155
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:41,719
Guardians team total under three and a half parlayd with

1156
01:02:41,760 --> 01:02:43,920
Red Sox on the money line and Blue Jay's on

1157
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:46,519
the money line, that comes out to plus three forty

1158
01:02:46,559 --> 01:02:49,719
five and hopefully we can hit this one so we

1159
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,840
can stay in the plus on the parlays. We are

1160
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:55,679
at the end of the show. Appreciate you guys for

1161
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,719
tuning in. As always about a thousand live viewers, and

1162
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:00,719
I know a bunch you guys come back and watch

1163
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:04,000
this on demand. We greatly appreciate that Tokyo Brandon's got

1164
01:03:04,039 --> 01:03:07,119
a five percenter today, so go check that out. There's

1165
01:03:07,159 --> 01:03:09,639
a good chance I'm posting any MLB I played today

1166
01:03:09,679 --> 01:03:12,559
for free, so heading over to wager Talk and check

1167
01:03:12,559 --> 01:03:17,079
the free picks tab because that's where I'm gonna and

1168
01:03:17,199 --> 01:03:19,239
leave a comment. Yeah, if you're watching on the replay

1169
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:22,719
drop down below, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already,

1170
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:26,960
and leave us a comment, good, bad, indifferent, or just

1171
01:03:27,159 --> 01:03:28,599
you know, if you just want to say hi. We'll

1172
01:03:28,599 --> 01:03:30,960
take all of them. They they definitely help the show.

1173
01:03:31,880 --> 01:03:34,519
All right, We'll see you guys tomorrow morning, nine Eastern

1174
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:41,440
for more total basis, have a great day, everybody.