Speaker 1: This is a podcast from WOOR The Jesse Kelly Show.
Speaker 1: Let's have some fun on a Monday, and it's going
Speaker 1: to be a huge show, a huge week for you
Speaker 1: on the Jesse Kelly Show. Let's just dive right in.
Speaker 1: First of all, I will talk briefly, try to talk
Speaker 1: briefly about the hurricane flooding going on right now. We'll
Speaker 1: address that medal of honor Monday. About an hour from now,
Speaker 1: we have a little Jesse was right segment. Actually, I
Speaker 1: take that back, I just misspoke. We have a couple
Speaker 1: of those tonight. That's always a good time. This doc
Speaker 1: strike that is coming tomorrow is the biggest deal nobody's
Speaker 1: talking about. And I have an expert on all that stuff,
Speaker 1: supply chains, shipping doc Ross Kennedy is going to join
Speaker 1: us about a half hour from now. I don't usually
Speaker 1: say you need to hear something, but that's something you
Speaker 1: should probably stay around for. You should probably hear that
Speaker 1: about a half hour from now. All that, so much
Speaker 1: more coming up tonight on the world famous Jesse Kelly Show.
Speaker 1: And it is a big night. From John Carrey to
Speaker 1: Bill Gates. We got to go after some commies tonight.
Speaker 1: I even have some voicemails. Some were great, some were hate,
Speaker 1: some were just a disaster. All that and more coming
Speaker 1: up on the world famous Jesse Kelly Show. All right, first,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Helene, and more specifically, I want to
Speaker 1: talk about why I'm not going to talk that much
Speaker 1: about Helene tonight. For those who maybe are way outside
Speaker 1: of the no, maybe you were in the mountains for
Speaker 1: the weekend, had your phone off. All that stuff's fine,
Speaker 1: But this hurricane came through. Hurricane itself was bad. It
Speaker 1: was a Cat three. That's a salty hurricane for sure,
Speaker 1: But as it made its way up through Tennessee, North Carolina,
Speaker 1: obviously hit Florida, it unleashed flooding that it is just honestly,
Speaker 1: the pictures, the videos, the things that I've spent the
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours consuming, they're very hard to see
Speaker 1: when you see people going through hell. As you are
Speaker 1: listening to the sound of my voice right now, there
Speaker 1: are so many people missing, there are many people who
Speaker 1: are dead. The damage that it's awful. It's everything about
Speaker 1: it is completely awful. And it's another reminder. We hate
Speaker 1: these reminders because it makes us feel small. Well, I
Speaker 1: should say it reminds us how small we are that
Speaker 1: for all the incredible power of mankind to create for
Speaker 1: himself cities and towns and spaces and areas, the power
Speaker 1: of nature is still such that it can wipe it
Speaker 1: all away, if that's the way it goes. And it's
Speaker 1: scary to think about. I live in a hurricane area.
Speaker 1: We witnessed it with Hurricane Harvey. The flooding, the devastation
Speaker 1: is just you think you're fine and then your house
Speaker 1: is underwater. So first, let's just do this. We need
Speaker 1: to pray when people are going through what they're going
Speaker 1: through right now. You don't have to wait till the
Speaker 1: show's over, Please don't. We need to pray. This is
Speaker 1: a time to pray. Every time it's time to pray,
Speaker 1: but this is a time to pray for these people.
Speaker 1: That is one two as far as helping goes. I
Speaker 1: have some things that I'm looking at. Organizations not mine.
Speaker 1: This won't be me. Organizations I'm looking at and I'm
Speaker 1: going to try to find one. It may be a
Speaker 1: big one, it may be a small one. I'm going
Speaker 1: to try to find one. And if you have a
Speaker 1: heart to help and dig in, I will give that out.
Speaker 1: I am not giving any out right now. I need
Speaker 1: to explain something to you. I have worked in the
Speaker 1: quote nonprofit world. I worked there for a year. I
Speaker 1: was a director of development in the nonprofit nonprofit world
Speaker 1: for a year. I know, Chris, it sounds very fancy.
Speaker 1: I was a very important person. Shut up. I've worked
Speaker 1: in that world. There are a bunch of great people
Speaker 1: in that world with good hearts for a good costs.
Speaker 1: You know, the preborns, the tunnel to towers. You know
Speaker 1: how you can tell though you don't have to take
Speaker 1: my word for those things. There are charity rating sites.
Speaker 1: These are independent sites. They go through the books of
Speaker 1: a charity. They go through what they have coming in,
Speaker 1: what they have going out, where it's going out, and
Speaker 1: they will rate the charity. Go look up Preborns, Go
Speaker 1: look up tunnel to towers. Why are those two ones
Speaker 1: that I scream about on my show? Because when you
Speaker 1: give there, it goes exactly where you you want it
Speaker 1: to go. That is not the rule for charities and nonprofits.
Speaker 1: I remember, like it was yesterday when Harvey had my
Speaker 1: entire area. Hurricane Harvey had my entire area underwater. I
Speaker 1: was fined don't worry about me, by the grace of God,
Speaker 1: we were fine, but people were devastated. And I remember
Speaker 1: crap that was pulled by the American Red Cross and
Speaker 1: other major organizations send us money to help the Harvey people.
Speaker 1: And if you followed the money, pennies on the dollar
Speaker 1: got to the Harvey people. This is a warning to
Speaker 1: you to be as shrewd as a snake. And here's
Speaker 1: why we're often not on a day like today, when
Speaker 1: we're devastating for these people and we want to help,
Speaker 1: and they need our help, and they need our prayers.
Speaker 1: Our emotions getting the way my emotions. It's happened to
Speaker 1: me before. I've ever to one of the more embarrassing
Speaker 1: stories of my life. You know, I'm not huge on technology.
Speaker 1: I'm better now, believe it or not, than I was.
Speaker 1: But I think it was five or ten years ago.
Speaker 1: I got a message. It was on social media. I
Speaker 1: was with my family. I was with my mom, my dad,
Speaker 1: my sister, my wife, we were at something and I
Speaker 1: got a message on social media from someone I knew.
Speaker 1: This was a person I knew, and they told me
Speaker 1: that they were stranded in Africa and they need ten thousand.
Speaker 1: It wasn't one of those print scams, but it was
Speaker 1: something along those lines. But it was a message from
Speaker 1: someone I knew, and I immediately sprung out of my
Speaker 1: chair and I said, oh my gosh, he's in trouble.
Speaker 1: I got to go send this. And my own mother said, Jessie,
Speaker 1: that's a scam. Someone hacked their account and you're getting
Speaker 1: ready to send them money. And of course after she
Speaker 1: said that, I thought, gosh, I'm such an idiot. Of
Speaker 1: course that's a freaking scam. But I got emotional. It
Speaker 1: was a friend, it was someone I knew. Gosh, I
Speaker 1: got a help over what happens to us. That's what's
Speaker 1: happening to you to me today. Help. I want you
Speaker 1: to help. Once you have verified the organization or if
Speaker 1: it's an individual, verify Verify, Verify. Don't go on Facebook
Speaker 1: and see a picture about how Muffy was swept away
Speaker 1: in the flood and for the low low price of
Speaker 1: twenty nine to ninety five, you will help them get
Speaker 1: Muffy back. He's somewhere in the flood. You don't know
Speaker 1: that person. I know Muffy's cute. Be careful give. I'm
Speaker 1: asking you to give. I have given, I will give more,
Speaker 1: but give where you trust verify first, they will use
Speaker 1: your emotions against you to send your money places it
Speaker 1: shouldn't go. All right now, maybe you're sitting here expecting me.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've heard a ton of this today. Maybe
Speaker 1: you're sitting here expecting me to go on off about
Speaker 1: the federal response or lack thereof. Right now, where is FEMA?
Speaker 1: Where's the federal government? FEMA's here, They're not doing enough.
Speaker 1: Let me explain to you why I'm not going to
Speaker 1: do that. Two different reasons why I'm not going to
Speaker 1: do that. One, I long ago accepted that the federal
Speaker 1: government hates me, the federal government hates you. I'm not
Speaker 1: under any delusions that it's different than that they despise us.
Speaker 1: That's one I never expected FEMA, even if it could help,
Speaker 1: that they would help. And FEMA, because it's government, is
Speaker 1: a misorganized disaster anyway. And FEMA has goal number one
Speaker 1: on their website about equity. Did you think this was
Speaker 1: just Dome who spoke like this. It's on FEMA's website.
Speaker 2: It is our lowest income communities and our communities of
Speaker 2: color that are most impacted by these extreme conditions and
Speaker 2: and impacted by issues that are not of their own
Speaker 2: making and so absolutely, and so we have to address
Speaker 2: this in a way that is about giving resources based
Speaker 2: on equity.
Speaker 1: I need to clarify that's an old clip. That was
Speaker 1: not her response to this hurricane. That was her response
Speaker 1: to another hurricane. So whatever, but it doesn't matter. That's
Speaker 1: FEMA's stance too. I wasn't ever banking on FEMA. You
Speaker 1: know what I do bank on and what I've been
Speaker 1: so inspired by for the last twenty four to forty
Speaker 1: eight hours, the American people. I mentioned Hurricane Harvey. It
Speaker 1: touches my heart to this day when I look back
Speaker 1: at Hurricane Harvey and I saw neighbors, people who didn't
Speaker 1: know each other, coming together to help, helping clear roads,
Speaker 1: helping get people out, giving money, giving water, giving food.
Speaker 1: The American people can and will step up for each
Speaker 1: other and help each other. We must do that. We
Speaker 1: must do that. So not gonna stand on the dead
Speaker 1: bodies of Hurricane Helen and trash the government or whatever,
Speaker 1: we know what they are. I'm going to bank on
Speaker 1: the American people to get it right, and they will
Speaker 1: get it right. So bow your head, say a prayer,
Speaker 1: be very shrewd with your giving. But if you can
Speaker 1: even if it's a case of water whatever, If you
Speaker 1: can find the right place and give I will try
Speaker 1: to find one. It may even be a small one,
Speaker 1: but I will try to find one that I have verified,
Speaker 1: that I trust, and I will give it to you. Okay, Okay,
Speaker 1: Also pray. I know I already said that ten times,
Speaker 1: but pray. There's a lot of people who need it
Speaker 1: right now. And there's a lot of people looking for
Speaker 1: a missing loved one who need a miracle. Say a
Speaker 1: prayer for them. Okay, all right, enough enough of that
Speaker 1: mushy stuff. Let's talk about me. No, we're not gonna
Speaker 1: talk about me, not really, We're gonna talk Remember that
Speaker 1: talk we did last week about leaders of Western civilization
Speaker 1: and why they despise it. Oh, I owe a debt
Speaker 1: a gratitude to a mister John Kerry for going ahead
Speaker 1: and reinforcing my point. We'll play that in a moment.
Speaker 1: If you don't remember that talk from last week, it's
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Speaker 1: We'll be back the.
Speaker 3: Jesse Kelly Show.
Speaker 1: It is the Jesse Kelly Show on a Monday, of course,
Speaker 1: Medal of Honor Monday coming up about forty five minutes
Speaker 1: from now. And remember Ross Kennedy's shipping expert, supply chains,
Speaker 1: logistic expert. He's coming on in about ten minutes. You
Speaker 1: probably need to sit around for this one. There's a
Speaker 1: huge strike coming a port strike. I hear a lot
Speaker 1: of terrifying things about it. I'm gonna know what's real,
Speaker 1: what's not. What should we prepare for. Here's a headline
Speaker 1: from CNBC East Coast Port strike. Truckers rails scrambled to
Speaker 1: move billions in cargo before the ila. That's the name
Speaker 1: of the union. It's Alongshoreman Union Midnight shutdown. So midnight tonight.
Speaker 1: What do we need to be ready for? What's coming?
Speaker 1: Is this a big deal? Small deal? Ross is gonna
Speaker 1: tell us about ten minutes now. I talk a lot
Speaker 1: about the leaders of Western civilization, how they think and
Speaker 1: why they think that way. I'm going to play something
Speaker 1: for you, says a little long This is me from
Speaker 1: last week. The show was on the twenty sixth, and
Speaker 1: this talk I did was very, very long. But John
Speaker 1: Kerry said something came out over the weekend. Man Alive.
Speaker 1: I owe him a thanks because boy that he proved
Speaker 1: the old oracle right in case you were missing it.
Speaker 1: This is what I said last week. The nature of
Speaker 1: people who are in charge or in government, it generally
Speaker 1: is not a nature of service. I'm a servant of
Speaker 1: the people, even though they love using that language. The
Speaker 1: nature of people who walk into positions of power generally
Speaker 1: is man, I'm a king, or at least I should be,
Speaker 1: and I should have more power than I do. And
Speaker 1: if I just had more power than I do now,
Speaker 1: then I can do this and that and this and that.
Speaker 1: And we have to understand that before we go further
Speaker 1: into this is going to come back to immigration and
Speaker 1: illegal immigration in the system. We have to understand the
Speaker 1: people who took over Western civilization over time, they all
Speaker 1: shared that mentality. They don't have some love of the
Speaker 1: constitution or rights or you or anything. These these concepts
Speaker 1: are completely foreign to them. They do know that they
Speaker 1: are high society and they know something else. They know
Speaker 1: that these these limits on their power, they're not good.
Speaker 1: Something has to be done about it. That was me
Speaker 1: from the twenty sixth Allow me to introduce you what Chris,
Speaker 1: it's fine. Allow me to introduce you to one John Kerry. Hey, John,
Speaker 1: if you're listening, appreciate you from making my point.
Speaker 3: Look, if people go to only one source, and the
Speaker 3: source they go to is sick and you know, as
Speaker 3: an agenda, and they're putting out disinformation, our First Amendment
Speaker 3: stands as a major block to the ability to be
Speaker 3: able to just you hammer it out of existence. So
Speaker 3: what you need, what we need is to is to
Speaker 3: win the ground, win the right to govern by hopefully
Speaker 3: having winning enough votes that you're free to be able to.
Speaker 1: Implement change. That's about thirty seconds of terror if you
Speaker 1: really really listen to what he's saying there. I know
Speaker 1: you already heard the part that proves my point that
Speaker 1: pesky First Amendment. But let's break this down a little
Speaker 1: bit more, shall we, John describe the First Amendment? Now,
Speaker 1: keep in mind before I play this, you being able
Speaker 1: to criticize your government, to say the president sucks, screw
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. That is not a small thing or something
Speaker 1: that makes Twitter more fun. Being able to freely speak,
Speaker 1: have your own opinion and criticize those in charge. People
Speaker 1: throughout history would have killed for that right. It's a
Speaker 1: sacred right, something you should wrap your arms around and
Speaker 1: protect at any cost. What's John Kerry and the rest
Speaker 1: of the elite think about it.
Speaker 3: But look, if people go to only one source, and
Speaker 3: the source they go to is sick and you know,
Speaker 3: as an agenda, and they're putting out disinformation, our First
Speaker 3: Amendment stands as a major block to.
Speaker 1: The these people are putting out this second agenda, and
Speaker 1: it's disgusting that first Amendment stands as what is it?
Speaker 1: A precious right given to you by God? No, it's
Speaker 1: a major block. It's holding John back. But that's not
Speaker 1: the most revealing part of it. In fact, it's not
Speaker 1: even second. There are two other parts of this. The
Speaker 1: most revealed part actually comes next. So John Kerry mad
Speaker 1: about this first Amendment, but if he could get around it,
Speaker 1: if he could find a way around it, Hey, John,
Speaker 1: how would you handle this problem? Are you do? You
Speaker 1: want to convince the people who disagree with you, bring
Speaker 1: them over to your side?
Speaker 4: How would you?
Speaker 1: How would you describe the best way to handle all
Speaker 1: this information? You don't lie it real.
Speaker 3: I need to be able to just, you know, hammer
Speaker 3: it out of existence.
Speaker 1: So yep, you want to what now, John? You want
Speaker 1: to hammer it? Interesting way they think about it, isn't
Speaker 1: it If it wasn't for that annoying first Amendment holding
Speaker 1: them back, then they could show up at your door
Speaker 1: and hammer that out of existence. So they think, did
Speaker 1: you think I was being dramatic last week when I
Speaker 1: was describing how they think, Oh, not near done. We're
Speaker 1: actually going to talk to Ross Kennedy and then we're
Speaker 1: going to break this thing down and even more detail. Yahly,
Speaker 1: these people are horrifying. Before we do that, let's talk
Speaker 1: about IFCJ. So today, on top of all the other
Speaker 1: assassinations and things, Iran's supreme leader has been taken to
Speaker 1: a secure location and Israel has begun making little raids
Speaker 1: into Lebanon. I don't know where all this is going.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether it's almost over or if it's beginning.
Speaker 1: But I know that there are a bunch of people
Speaker 1: in Israel right now who need some help. Life saving aid,
Speaker 1: food boxes, emergency supplies. They need help. They need it now.
Speaker 1: If you are able to help, if you're able to,
Speaker 1: they're asking for a hundred bucks. If you're able to
Speaker 1: help the IFCJ is on the ground, they're not here,
Speaker 1: they're on the ground helping everywhere they can find it.
Speaker 1: If you want to help them, call eight eight eight
Speaker 1: four eight eight if CJ eight eight eight four eight
Speaker 1: eight if CJ, or you can go give online to
Speaker 1: support IFCJ dot org. All right, Ross Kennedy is joining us.
Speaker 1: There's a big strike at the ports. Why should I care?
Speaker 1: Why should you care? I don't know. We'll find out
Speaker 1: next Hey Kelly's show. Please tell me Ross didn't did
Speaker 1: Ross did? He didn't choose this song? Oh? Ross didn't
Speaker 1: choose a song? Yeah, Well, look, I'm really excited to
Speaker 1: talk to Ross for this analysis. Obviously, Ross joins us again.
Speaker 1: Everyone on my show knows Ross Kennedy. But Ross should
Speaker 1: have understood by now that you have to choose your
Speaker 1: song or you get the worst song we can find
Speaker 1: on short notice. So congratulations, Ross, you got introduced to you.
Speaker 1: I don't even know who that was, but man, it
Speaker 1: was terrible.
Speaker 4: You say that as if I wasn't absolutely jamming out
Speaker 4: too as we came in.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's fair, all right, Ross, you know more than
Speaker 1: anyone else I've ever talked to in my life about
Speaker 1: supply chains, about all kinds of this stuff, and I
Speaker 1: don't understand how these things work. I'm told that there's
Speaker 1: a big long shorm in union and they're about to
Speaker 1: go on strike at midnight, and that the entire world
Speaker 1: is going to implode when that happens. So I'm just
Speaker 1: going to hand over the world famous Jesse Kelly Show
Speaker 1: to you to explain to all of us exactly what
Speaker 1: is happening. If I interrupt, it's because I'm stupid and confused.
Speaker 1: What's happening.
Speaker 4: Well, so there has not been a warp stoppage related
Speaker 4: to the International Longshormans Association. So there's actually two unions
Speaker 4: in the US that represent the longshorm in which are
Speaker 4: the individuals that are working at the ports to load
Speaker 4: and unload containers, cargo, move things around the port. It's
Speaker 4: kind of a complex web of activity, and you know
Speaker 4: all the beehives. But the upshot is that there's a
Speaker 4: West Coast union which had significant risk of a major
Speaker 4: labor stoppage in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Vancouver, etc.
Speaker 4: Last year. This year it is now anything that's the
Speaker 4: US East Coast or Gulf Coast ports, so everything from
Speaker 4: Houston all the way up to Maine, and there's about
Speaker 4: forty five thousand longshoremen that are involved in this labor
Speaker 4: dispute comes down to two things. Primarily, number one is pay.
Speaker 4: They're paid about thirty to thirty five thousand dollars a
Speaker 4: year less than their counterparts on the West Coast. Obviously
Speaker 4: have cost of living and all sorts of things, but
Speaker 4: these are different unions that are representing the interests of
Speaker 4: their members on the two coasts versus the left coast.
Speaker 4: The other issue is one of automation. There has been
Speaker 4: a huge push globally within major ports to have automated
Speaker 4: or semi automated equipment that are largely able to handle
Speaker 4: the loading and unloading of containers with cranes, movement around
Speaker 4: on dock, stacking of containers. That obviously does away with
Speaker 4: a lot of jobs. That's an existential threat in their mind.
Speaker 4: The upshot to that is is that there's significantly higher
Speaker 4: risk of extra fees, delays things that go with a
Speaker 4: manned port versus an automated port. If you look at
Speaker 4: going back into say twenty twenty two, towards the tail
Speaker 4: end of a lot of the COVID supply chain issues
Speaker 4: that we were seeing in port, the top four or
Speaker 4: five highest ports in the world for these extra fees
Speaker 4: were US ports that are more or less manned. When
Speaker 4: you look at some of the very large automated ports
Speaker 4: where there really isn't a lot of labor on the
Speaker 4: dock to say any it's all being run by the robots,
Speaker 4: and it's being run from a control room. That's Shanghai
Speaker 4: that's Rotterdam, that support of Antwerp and belt them. Some
Speaker 4: of these massive ports move more volume than a lot
Speaker 4: of the ones we have in the US, were significantly
Speaker 4: reduced in terms of you know, extra costs, extra fees,
Speaker 4: delays to the people that are moving you know, the
Speaker 4: shippers that are moving cargo on and off the port.
Speaker 4: So they really do see this as this automation is
Speaker 4: going to kill their profession. They see themselves, at least
Speaker 4: the ILA the East Coast and Gulf Coast a long
Speaker 4: shoreman see themselves as underpaid compared to the others. And
Speaker 4: there is some validity to that relative to the fact
Speaker 4: that a lot of these ports are more manual labor
Speaker 4: intensive related to handling cargo on the docks and on
Speaker 4: the ships than the West coast ports. So it's kind
Speaker 4: of a muddy mess. And now we're here at kind
Speaker 4: of d day where if the talks between the Maritime
Speaker 4: Association that represents the ports and shipowners on the East
Speaker 4: Coast and in the Gulf don't come to an agreement
Speaker 4: with the forty five thousand members of the ISLA that
Speaker 4: are involved in this, then all the ports that are
Speaker 4: involved will shut down. So yeah, it's an ugly situation.
Speaker 4: It's coming right ahead of the election. The long shorm
Speaker 4: In unions have historically been very Democrat and this now
Speaker 4: comes on the back of Hurricane Helen doing hurricane things.
Speaker 4: So it's a lot of competing political priorities and timing
Speaker 4: here right ahead of the election.
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, speaking with Ross Kennedy Fortis analysis, I have
Speaker 1: so many questions I don't even know where to begin.
Speaker 1: But that was all actually pretty terrifying.
Speaker 3: Ross.
Speaker 1: I'd gotten myself horrified this morning thinking about the implications
Speaker 1: of shutting down the East coast ports, and then I
Speaker 1: convinced myself when I texted you to come on. I
Speaker 1: convinced myself that Ross will come on and calm me
Speaker 1: down and tell me everything's going to work out fine.
Speaker 1: But somehow I'm twice as scared now as I was
Speaker 1: before I even ask the question. And I'm worried because
Speaker 1: it sounds not insurmountable. What all these things get worked
Speaker 1: out eventually in the end, But just doing some rough
Speaker 1: community college math in my head. Underpaid by thirty five
Speaker 1: thousand a man, forty five thousand union guys, that sounds
Speaker 1: like you're asking the ship owners to fork out a
Speaker 1: large check. They're simply not going to fork out at all.
Speaker 1: It sounds like they're a million miles away. What did
Speaker 1: am I missing? Something?
Speaker 4: Roughly two point eight billion dollars apart right now on
Speaker 4: the negotiating stance. So they want a seventy seventy seven
Speaker 4: percent pay increase that phases in over the least five years.
Speaker 4: You're talking about an eighty one thousand dollars average salary
Speaker 4: or compensation, not including overtime and benefits for the long shorm.
Speaker 4: And so you take that times forty five thousand, and
Speaker 4: we would be looking at about across these ports that
Speaker 4: move forty percent of the cargo in and out of
Speaker 4: the US, including especially a lot of fruits, a lot
Speaker 4: of vegetables, a lot of energy products, automobiles, minerals are
Speaker 4: very heavy in the golf and East Coast ports versus
Speaker 4: the West Coast. You're talking about a two point eight
Speaker 4: billion dollar increase that would be eaten by the terminals
Speaker 4: the ports. So you have a port, you have multiple
Speaker 4: terminals usually within the port, that operate independently but under
Speaker 4: the port authority, and then you have the ship owners.
Speaker 4: So that two point eight billion over the next five
Speaker 4: years would have to be spread fairly equally across taxpayers
Speaker 4: and fairly equally across the people at the bottom of
Speaker 4: the totem pole who pay every additional charge, which is
Speaker 4: the importer or the exporter.
Speaker 1: Okay, let me ask this question. Sorry, Ross, I may
Speaker 1: end up by the way I should note. Do I
Speaker 1: have you for an extra ten? It's fine if I didn't.
Speaker 1: We didn't talk about this before. I just have a
Speaker 1: lot of questions here. Do I have you for another segment? Okay? Good,
Speaker 1: because that leads me to this question, is that I
Speaker 1: don't want don't want it to be my last one?
Speaker 1: What kind of margins? I'm not one of these guys
Speaker 1: who goes after people's profits, but you mentioned two point
Speaker 1: eight billion or two what it's called three billion dollars.
Speaker 1: That doesn't sound like a ton of money when you're
Speaker 1: dealing with that many different ports and that much industry.
Speaker 1: I know it's a lot of money. I'm not thumb
Speaker 1: in my nose at two point eight billion dollars, But
Speaker 1: surely the profits are there to pay that, right, Are
Speaker 1: there not big margins? Well?
Speaker 4: You shipowners had lost you know in the aggregate. You
Speaker 4: know what we call containership. You know, owners had lost
Speaker 4: you know, in the last twenty five years prior to COVID,
Speaker 4: I think every year but twenty three or every year
Speaker 4: but two of the twenty five they had lost money.
Speaker 4: COVID really, COVID really reversed their fortunes because they were
Speaker 4: able to begin charging excessive searcharges that were within the
Speaker 4: law but certainly not within the spirit. So you've had
Speaker 4: the Federal Maritime Commission doing a number of studies and
Speaker 4: surveys and assessing fines and penalties to the ocean carriers
Speaker 4: for these extra searcharges that are very much out of
Speaker 4: the scope and we're kind of created on an ad
Speaker 4: hoc basis to avoid the law and charge more money
Speaker 4: back to the importer and exporter who ultimately paid a
Speaker 4: bill for everything involved with an ocean freight transaction. In
Speaker 4: this particular case, what you would see are container lines
Speaker 4: implementing very quickly additional searcharges for labor risk, for port
Speaker 4: operational slowdowns. So every dollar in known quantified risk in
Speaker 4: this case two point eight billion over the next five years,
Speaker 4: is they're going to find a way to recoup that
Speaker 4: using that as a justification. Three to four to five ways,
Speaker 4: but it won't be dollars equal. When you look at
Speaker 4: twenty twenty twenty to twenty two, thirteen point eight billion
Speaker 4: dollars in excess searcharges and fees were collected by the
Speaker 4: ports terminals and ocean carriers as a result of all
Speaker 4: of the supply chain challenges and logistics just that we
Speaker 4: have related to COVID. So if we say the longshoremen
Speaker 4: are responsible for ten percent at most, this two point
Speaker 4: eight billion dollar increase rolls down to about four hundred
Speaker 4: and forty million a year, that you could credibly say
Speaker 4: the longshoremen are responsible for those extra fees happening. The
Speaker 4: other ninety percent is a whole bunch of other factors.
Speaker 4: So what they're really arguing against is pay US two
Speaker 4: point eight billion over the next five years and avoid
Speaker 4: automation or anytime there's a risk or disruption or whatever.
Speaker 4: We're talking a billion dollar to five billion dollars depending
Speaker 4: on the math you look at, hit to the US
Speaker 4: economy every day the ports are shut down. So it's
Speaker 4: a hostage situation on the you know, between two parties
Speaker 4: who neither of them in a lot of ways, are
Speaker 4: really all that people are not going to be inclined
Speaker 4: to see their side of it. It's a it's a
Speaker 4: lot of extra money. Where we go on strike having
Speaker 4: that multi billion dollar impact to the US economy, or
Speaker 4: we continue with the status quo. You give in to
Speaker 4: our demands and you're still going to end up paying
Speaker 4: US two point eight billion dollars over the next five years.
Speaker 1: All right, look we are I'm up against the break.
Speaker 1: We're going to come back with Ross Kennedy Fordis analysis.
Speaker 1: I have some questions about the impact to you. To me,
Speaker 1: what if this thing's going to go on for a bit,
Speaker 1: and it sounds like there's a chance it might. I'm
Speaker 1: want to know what we're what we're in store for
Speaker 1: before we do that. So I get a lot of
Speaker 1: emails about self defense. And look, I am not some
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Speaker 1: will tell you personally what I do. I carry lethal
Speaker 1: because I am allowed to do so. I live in
Speaker 1: a state where I'm allowed to do so. I carry lethal.
Speaker 1: I carry my Springfield Hellcat Pro, and I carry non lethal.
Speaker 1: I love having a non lethal option. If there's some
Speaker 1: crazy homeless guy leaning on my car and don't don't move,
Speaker 1: won't move. I need to Leavenna. Not gonna blow his
Speaker 1: head off, right. I want a non lethal option. Berna
Speaker 1: is the non lethal option. B. Why Rna? Maybe you're
Speaker 1: in a blue area they won't allow you to have
Speaker 1: a gun. Everyone's allowed to have Berna. Everybody legal in
Speaker 1: all fifty states, No permit needed, no nothing. It's tear
Speaker 1: gas balls or pepper balls or kinetic rounds. Those are
Speaker 1: just the hard plastic rounds. Get one. Whether you carry
Speaker 1: lethal or not. You need a burn a pistol launcher. B.
Speaker 1: Why Rna? Berna dot com slash Jesse We'll be back
Speaker 1: eddies the Jesse Kelly Show. Final segment of the first
Speaker 1: dollar of The Jesse Kelly Show, or ten minutes away
Speaker 1: from Medal of Honor Monday. I just wanted to finish
Speaker 1: up my conversation with Ross Kennedy Fortis analysis our shipping
Speaker 1: logistics supply chain guy, What are we in store for
Speaker 1: with this long shorm and union strike on the East Coast? Sorry? Ross,
Speaker 1: you just broke down all the all the gripes, if
Speaker 1: you will, of each side. I get all that, but
Speaker 1: me the American consumer. You mentioned things like cars. Well, shoot,
Speaker 1: I got a sixteen year old who's gonna need one soon.
Speaker 1: If this thing goes on, if they don't work this out,
Speaker 1: and they sound far apart, what are we the consumer
Speaker 1: in store for?
Speaker 4: Well, if it's just a one day shut down, you know,
Speaker 4: train falls off the tracks. Tomorrow we get into a
Speaker 4: twenty four hour shutdown. You're still talking about a week
Speaker 4: to get supply chains back on track. You know, it's
Speaker 4: a Train's a really useful analogy here for a couple
Speaker 4: of reasons. Number One, once it comes to a dead stop,
Speaker 4: it takes an awful long time and power for it
Speaker 4: to break friction to get moving down the tracks again,
Speaker 4: both literally and metaphorically. The reason for that is is
Speaker 4: that as containers stop, as trucks stop, the backlog continues.
Speaker 4: The ship still continue coming in ocean, carriers are still
Speaker 4: re routing and moving cargo to West coast ports away
Speaker 4: from the East coast. None of that just you know,
Speaker 4: stops on a dime and everything goes back to normal.
Speaker 4: One of the other things that's not really been discussed here.
Speaker 4: Everybody's focused on the fact that, you know, something like
Speaker 4: thirty ports, the thirty five ports in the US on
Speaker 4: the Gulf Coast and the East coast would be impacted
Speaker 4: by this. The other challenge though, is that the East
Speaker 4: coast ports, particularly Norfolk, Savannah and New York, are what
Speaker 4: we call intermodal gateways, meaning that they are the primary
Speaker 4: on dock for rail service with the Norfolk, Southern, and
Speaker 4: CSX railroads into Chicago, Saint louis the Ohio's if Ohio
Speaker 4: were real, which is a favorite joke for everybody. So
Speaker 4: you have all of these inland points that are connected
Speaker 4: directly to and you know, the lifeblood of them is
Speaker 4: the rail movements that comes to and from these ports
Speaker 4: at the coasts, and so things that normally come inland.
Speaker 4: It doesn't just impact companies at the coast consumers at
Speaker 4: the coast. It impacts any company that imports their exports
Speaker 4: that's based in Cleveland, Ohio, Columbus and Sinnati, Chicago, Indianapolis, Louisville, Memphis,
Speaker 4: Saint Louis, even Kansas City, all the way you know,
Speaker 4: down the line. So it really impacts all supply chains
Speaker 4: in the eastern half of the US, not just what's
Speaker 4: happening at the coast. And when you're looking at the
Speaker 4: fact that it's a lot of fruit, a lot of vegetables, juice, meat,
Speaker 4: a lot most of those things. You know, by sixty
Speaker 4: to seventy five, almost eighty percent of a lot of
Speaker 4: fresh food stuffs come in through these ports because we
Speaker 4: source so much of that not from Asia, but from
Speaker 4: South America and Central America, which primarily used the Gulf
Speaker 4: Coast and East Coast ports as their gateways into the US.
Speaker 4: So it is one day, not a big deal, but
Speaker 4: you'll still feel the impact in terms of port operations
Speaker 4: and slow downs for a week. It's a strike, were
Speaker 4: to say, dragon a week, you're talking months of recovery
Speaker 4: because of the backlogs that come into play and coming up,
Speaker 4: you know, right ahead of Christmas shopping season, given that
Speaker 4: the US consumer has a habit of running, you know,
Speaker 4: runs on store inventory on the shelves whenever there's a
Speaker 4: perceived shortage. When you're talking about we're coming into the season,
Speaker 4: when the autumnmakers are playing, you know, I've already begun
Speaker 4: and will aggressively continue ramping up roll out of the
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five vehicles, a lot of these sectors that
Speaker 4: touch our daily lives would be looking at short term
Speaker 4: to intermediate term increase costs, and then the tail of that,
Speaker 4: of course being everybody knowing people understand strikes, they don't
Speaker 4: understand mechanisms of supply chain being able to take advantage
Speaker 4: of that to increase prices further as a way to
Speaker 4: generate more profits, which historically has been the behavior of
Speaker 4: all of the parties involved on the back end of
Speaker 4: a striker a major supply chain disruption.
Speaker 1: Ross, you are the man. We are all small now.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, my brother, as always that that
Speaker 1: was extremely helpful.
Speaker 4: Thank you, very welcome.
Speaker 1: Julie all right, oh man, Well, my palms are sweaty.
Speaker 1: I don't know about you. My palms are sweaty. No,
Speaker 1: we'll be fine. Look, we'll be fine in the end.
Speaker 1: But that was we might be in for a rocky road.
Speaker 1: I guess now we do. If the strike's a day,
Speaker 1: things are going to be screwed up for a week.
Speaker 1: If the strike's a week, things will be screwed up
Speaker 1: for months. I didn't want to ask him if the
Speaker 1: strike's a month long, because who knows. This has been
Speaker 1: a podcast from wor