WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:03.439
<v Speaker 1>Joined by our friend and smart weather guy Dave Frasier

2
00:00:03.439 --> 00:00:04.320
<v Speaker 1>from Box thirty one.

3
00:00:04.320 --> 00:00:08.199
<v Speaker 2>Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon. I really enjoyed the Richard

4
00:00:08.199 --> 00:00:09.720
<v Speaker 2>Simmons segment at the top of the show.

5
00:00:11.039 --> 00:00:12.880
<v Speaker 1>But you know what, what exercise do you? Hey, Dave?

6
00:00:15.880 --> 00:00:17.039
<v Speaker 1>Everybody has one.

7
00:00:18.640 --> 00:00:20.120
<v Speaker 2>Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard

8
00:00:20.120 --> 00:00:23.000
<v Speaker 2>of the comedian Johnsanette, Like you said, guy talks all

9
00:00:23.039 --> 00:00:24.879
<v Speaker 2>about food and exercise.

10
00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:27.359
<v Speaker 1>I have not. I'm gonna have to go look him up.

11
00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:31.280
<v Speaker 2>Check out jumping at He's fantastic and he first life

12
00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:34.000
<v Speaker 2>tried to lose weight and he hired a trainer and

13
00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:36.039
<v Speaker 2>the trainer said, we're going to start with some push

14
00:00:36.079 --> 00:00:38.200
<v Speaker 2>ups and some sit ups. And he stopped and he said, listen,

15
00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:39.759
<v Speaker 2>I don't do upuse I do down.

16
00:00:43.640 --> 00:00:47.799
<v Speaker 1>All right, then there's my exercise routine. Okay, no problem then.

17
00:00:48.000 --> 00:00:49.920
<v Speaker 1>So I just want to say a big fat thank you.

18
00:00:50.000 --> 00:00:54.000
<v Speaker 1>This weather right now is spectacular. How long do we

19
00:00:54.039 --> 00:00:54.840
<v Speaker 1>get to keep this.

20
00:00:56.799 --> 00:01:00.439
<v Speaker 2>For the next week? The seven day forecast, even I

21
00:01:00.479 --> 00:01:02.880
<v Speaker 2>could extend that out to ten days, shows that that's

22
00:01:02.880 --> 00:01:06.680
<v Speaker 2>staying dry. We just don't see any pattern shifts coming.

23
00:01:07.439 --> 00:01:09.840
<v Speaker 2>It is a little warm. We're running about ten degrees

24
00:01:09.879 --> 00:01:13.959
<v Speaker 2>above normal, and it is still possible that tomorrow and

25
00:01:14.040 --> 00:01:18.959
<v Speaker 2>maybe on Sunday, we could reach ninety again, which isn't

26
00:01:19.000 --> 00:01:21.680
<v Speaker 2>the latest we've seen a ninety degree temperature, but it's

27
00:01:21.680 --> 00:01:24.079
<v Speaker 2>certainly something most people don't want to deal with. But

28
00:01:24.920 --> 00:01:27.359
<v Speaker 2>I've been stressing the last few days. While those temperatures

29
00:01:27.359 --> 00:01:29.000
<v Speaker 2>are very warm for this time of the year and

30
00:01:29.040 --> 00:01:32.280
<v Speaker 2>it has been dry, the reality is it's not like

31
00:01:32.400 --> 00:01:35.200
<v Speaker 2>summer heat, right because you're loving it because you go

32
00:01:35.239 --> 00:01:37.760
<v Speaker 2>into the evenings and it just cools down so quickly,

33
00:01:37.760 --> 00:01:40.239
<v Speaker 2>and the organizer are so refreshing. So that's the benefit

34
00:01:40.239 --> 00:01:41.840
<v Speaker 2>of September, all right.

35
00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:45.079
<v Speaker 1>I have a question from a listener that texts in

36
00:01:45.239 --> 00:01:48.239
<v Speaker 1>a little bit, Mandy. Can you ask Dave Frasier about

37
00:01:48.239 --> 00:01:52.959
<v Speaker 1>weather conditions that create jet contrails. Some days there are

38
00:01:52.959 --> 00:01:54.640
<v Speaker 1>lots of them, other days not so much.

39
00:01:56.200 --> 00:01:58.000
<v Speaker 2>It just has to do with the moisture and the

40
00:01:58.120 --> 00:02:01.760
<v Speaker 2>high upper atmosphere when we have a day, let's take

41
00:02:01.799 --> 00:02:04.680
<v Speaker 2>today for instance. If you have a day like today

42
00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:07.640
<v Speaker 2>and it's completely sunning outside and you're looking up, I

43
00:02:07.640 --> 00:02:11.080
<v Speaker 2>mean there's nothing but blue skies overhead. The air over

44
00:02:11.199 --> 00:02:14.360
<v Speaker 2>us right now is extremely dry, so the number of

45
00:02:14.439 --> 00:02:16.520
<v Speaker 2>jets going in and out of di Ia, flying over

46
00:02:16.599 --> 00:02:19.639
<v Speaker 2>Colorado the same today as they were yesterday. If you

47
00:02:19.759 --> 00:02:22.719
<v Speaker 2>add in moisture at higher levels, then the contrails will

48
00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:25.719
<v Speaker 2>become more visual and evidence. So it's just a matter

49
00:02:25.800 --> 00:02:27.919
<v Speaker 2>of moisture in the atmosphere, and right now we're just

50
00:02:27.960 --> 00:02:30.000
<v Speaker 2>too dry for that. So I mean, look up at

51
00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:32.159
<v Speaker 2>the sky. You know there's planes out there, no evidence

52
00:02:32.159 --> 00:02:34.719
<v Speaker 2>that they're flying around. But if we see the little

53
00:02:34.800 --> 00:02:38.479
<v Speaker 2>higher humidity into the higher atmosphere, the contrails, the pressurization

54
00:02:38.919 --> 00:02:41.960
<v Speaker 2>of the jet kind of condensing the moisture in the air,

55
00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:44.280
<v Speaker 2>then you can see the streets in the sky. So

56
00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:46.680
<v Speaker 2>just not the setup we have mass. It's all about moisture.

57
00:02:46.960 --> 00:02:50.319
<v Speaker 1>Okay. So I wanted to ask you. We've got Hurricane

58
00:02:50.360 --> 00:02:54.159
<v Speaker 1>Helene barreling towards the Gulf coast of Florida, and you

59
00:02:54.199 --> 00:02:56.639
<v Speaker 1>know it's going to hit my friends in my hometown,

60
00:02:56.759 --> 00:02:58.400
<v Speaker 1>not directly, but they're going to have a lot of

61
00:02:58.719 --> 00:03:04.520
<v Speaker 1>rain and wind. This hurricane season has been far quieter

62
00:03:05.000 --> 00:03:08.479
<v Speaker 1>than was anticipated. Far quieter, yep, yep.

63
00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:10.479
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. As a matter of fact, I lean only the

64
00:03:11.439 --> 00:03:15.000
<v Speaker 2>sixth hurricane and it's going to be the second one

65
00:03:15.039 --> 00:03:16.800
<v Speaker 2>for that area. I don't know if you'll remember. Debbie

66
00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:20.159
<v Speaker 2>hit back there in the Big Bend area of Florida

67
00:03:20.280 --> 00:03:22.960
<v Speaker 2>on August fifth of this year, so they haven't had

68
00:03:23.039 --> 00:03:25.759
<v Speaker 2>much of a break there in the Panhandle. Debbie was

69
00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:28.919
<v Speaker 2>only a Category one when it came ashore near Tallahassee

70
00:03:29.560 --> 00:03:31.919
<v Speaker 2>and it caused a lot of damage related to flooding,

71
00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:34.080
<v Speaker 2>and then it kind of went cut across Georgia and

72
00:03:34.199 --> 00:03:36.919
<v Speaker 2>went back into the Atlantic before turning back into the Carolinas.

73
00:03:37.400 --> 00:03:40.080
<v Speaker 2>This one's going to be stronger. We're talking about potentially

74
00:03:40.159 --> 00:03:42.759
<v Speaker 2>a Category three hurricane. So the yes are going to

75
00:03:42.800 --> 00:03:44.840
<v Speaker 2>be you know, up past one hundred and ten to

76
00:03:44.919 --> 00:03:46.840
<v Speaker 2>maybe one hundred and thirty, So you're going to have

77
00:03:46.919 --> 00:03:50.159
<v Speaker 2>more wind component, you are going to have movine flying

78
00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:53.439
<v Speaker 2>from heavy rain, but also from the storm surge that

79
00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:57.240
<v Speaker 2>riseing water that comes ashore. They're also warning of rip currents,

80
00:03:57.280 --> 00:04:00.520
<v Speaker 2>dangerous rip currents because the storm's coming in perpendicular to

81
00:04:00.599 --> 00:04:02.840
<v Speaker 2>the coast and so the waves will be curling away

82
00:04:02.840 --> 00:04:05.080
<v Speaker 2>from the coast course. That's only an issue if people

83
00:04:05.159 --> 00:04:08.240
<v Speaker 2>go into the water, and they will Ridians, yeah, they will.

84
00:04:08.360 --> 00:04:09.759
<v Speaker 1>There will be people that will go into the water.

85
00:04:09.800 --> 00:04:10.599
<v Speaker 1>I can tell you that now.

86
00:04:11.560 --> 00:04:14.240
<v Speaker 2>I know. It's just amazing. You see these waves in

87
00:04:14.280 --> 00:04:16.639
<v Speaker 2>it's a category two or a three, and there they are.

88
00:04:16.759 --> 00:04:18.600
<v Speaker 2>I've just kind of taken advantage of the syrup.

89
00:04:19.199 --> 00:04:26.439
<v Speaker 1>Category three can can do is extremely destructive. I moved

90
00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:29.160
<v Speaker 1>to southwest Florida right after Hurricane Charlie, which was a

91
00:04:29.160 --> 00:04:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Category three when it made landfall at Puntagoda, Florida. And

92
00:04:32.360 --> 00:04:34.720
<v Speaker 1>when you drove down I seventy five, the eye of

93
00:04:34.759 --> 00:04:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the storm had tracked directly over I seventy five after

94
00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:42.199
<v Speaker 1>it came in off of the coastline, and on one

95
00:04:42.279 --> 00:04:44.839
<v Speaker 1>side of I seventy five, all of the you know

96
00:04:44.879 --> 00:04:48.000
<v Speaker 1>those giant light poles they have on an interstate, They're massive.

97
00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:51.240
<v Speaker 1>All of the trees on the on the one side

98
00:04:51.480 --> 00:04:54.399
<v Speaker 1>were flattened in one direction, and all of the trees

99
00:04:54.439 --> 00:04:57.000
<v Speaker 1>and light poles on the other side were flattened in

100
00:04:57.079 --> 00:04:58.160
<v Speaker 1>the opposite direction.

101
00:04:58.879 --> 00:05:00.079
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, it was crazy.

102
00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it was like what just happened here? Because

103
00:05:03.480 --> 00:05:06.879
<v Speaker 1>you know it was it was really really it destroyed

104
00:05:06.959 --> 00:05:09.360
<v Speaker 1>that entire part of Florida. But it's rebuilds even better.

105
00:05:09.399 --> 00:05:11.480
<v Speaker 1>So there you go. You never know, Putz Border wasn't

106
00:05:11.519 --> 00:05:13.000
<v Speaker 1>exactly nice before.

107
00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:15.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this area is this area has been hard hit,

108
00:05:15.759 --> 00:05:19.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean Adelia back in August of twenty twenty three,

109
00:05:19.560 --> 00:05:22.439
<v Speaker 2>and then you had hurricanes hit that same area in

110
00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:26.120
<v Speaker 2>twenty sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen. So that part of the country,

111
00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:28.079
<v Speaker 2>as you're well aware, it just doesn't get a break.

112
00:05:28.120 --> 00:05:30.839
<v Speaker 2>And so this one will also bring heavy rain. Some

113
00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:33.480
<v Speaker 2>of the heaviest rain will be on the northwest side

114
00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:35.839
<v Speaker 2>of the storm, which is typical, and that's going to

115
00:05:35.959 --> 00:05:38.160
<v Speaker 2>drive heavy rain as much as a foot up towards

116
00:05:38.199 --> 00:05:41.480
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta not even have urbanized flooding. Yeah, it can be

117
00:05:41.879 --> 00:05:44.759
<v Speaker 2>just a huge problem for those folks as well. So

118
00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:47.120
<v Speaker 2>and you know, I did you mentioned that it's been

119
00:05:47.160 --> 00:05:50.639
<v Speaker 2>a little quiet. I'm no hurricane expert, having you know,

120
00:05:50.720 --> 00:05:54.160
<v Speaker 2>forecast most of my career inland, but I've been reading

121
00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:57.399
<v Speaker 2>some published papers and stuff, and one of the compounding

122
00:05:57.439 --> 00:06:01.000
<v Speaker 2>factors they believe is saharan dust, a lot more of

123
00:06:01.040 --> 00:06:04.680
<v Speaker 2>it in the upper atmosphere drifting over the Atlantic and

124
00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:06.920
<v Speaker 2>not allowing the waters to warm to the levels that

125
00:06:06.959 --> 00:06:09.800
<v Speaker 2>they had expected. So the forecast for the hurricane season

126
00:06:09.839 --> 00:06:12.399
<v Speaker 2>has been reduced a couple of times because of that.

127
00:06:12.720 --> 00:06:15.279
<v Speaker 2>The number of hurricanes and the number of main storms

128
00:06:15.279 --> 00:06:17.759
<v Speaker 2>and the number of major storms. A Category three would

129
00:06:17.759 --> 00:06:18.839
<v Speaker 2>be a major storm.

130
00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:20.639
<v Speaker 1>Oh, that's a major storm. That's a I would not

131
00:06:20.959 --> 00:06:22.839
<v Speaker 1>I'll stick around through a Cat too, but I will

132
00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:25.600
<v Speaker 1>not stick around through a Cat three because it's it's

133
00:06:25.639 --> 00:06:28.319
<v Speaker 1>incredibly destructive and it's going to be incredibly destructive when

134
00:06:28.360 --> 00:06:30.959
<v Speaker 1>it lands. So I got one more question from a listener,

135
00:06:30.959 --> 00:06:33.040
<v Speaker 1>I want to get in before we go here. Can

136
00:06:33.079 --> 00:06:37.519
<v Speaker 1>the direction of the wind preceding a thunderstorm predict the

137
00:06:37.560 --> 00:06:41.279
<v Speaker 1>direction the storm is moving? And this is like, okay,

138
00:06:41.319 --> 00:06:43.519
<v Speaker 1>so I am south of here, and when the storms

139
00:06:43.560 --> 00:06:46.800
<v Speaker 1>are coming from the north, the wind is whipping up

140
00:06:46.879 --> 00:06:50.600
<v Speaker 1>from the south. So does that mean that the wind

141
00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:52.759
<v Speaker 1>is what pulling it? How does that work?

142
00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:56.160
<v Speaker 2>So no, it's not going to tell you the direction

143
00:06:56.279 --> 00:06:58.639
<v Speaker 2>it's moving. The direction the storms are going to move

144
00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:01.680
<v Speaker 2>is based on the mid level winds that are pushing

145
00:07:01.720 --> 00:07:04.519
<v Speaker 2>them along. They can also form on a cold front,

146
00:07:04.560 --> 00:07:06.680
<v Speaker 2>so they'll line up along the cold front and march

147
00:07:06.720 --> 00:07:09.480
<v Speaker 2>as a team. But generally what you have is you

148
00:07:09.519 --> 00:07:12.839
<v Speaker 2>have a giant vacuum, so the wind ahead of the

149
00:07:12.920 --> 00:07:15.879
<v Speaker 2>storm is being sucked in. So as the storm is

150
00:07:15.920 --> 00:07:17.959
<v Speaker 2>approaching to you, the wind is probably going to come

151
00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.680
<v Speaker 2>from you to the storm, so it's drawing the wind up.

152
00:07:21.879 --> 00:07:24.240
<v Speaker 2>So depending on your location, that wind could be coming

153
00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:27.680
<v Speaker 2>in from an easterly direction or a southeasterly direction. As

154
00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:30.720
<v Speaker 2>the storm passes, you can get a cold outflow and

155
00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:32.600
<v Speaker 2>the wind will go in the opposite direction. We track

156
00:07:32.639 --> 00:07:36.000
<v Speaker 2>out flowed boundaries all the time, So the wind within

157
00:07:36.120 --> 00:07:39.240
<v Speaker 2>the individual thunderstorm is going to be erratic. It's going

158
00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:41.600
<v Speaker 2>to be sucking in ahead of it and potentially blowing

159
00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:44.399
<v Speaker 2>out behind it, and those directions are going to change.

160
00:07:44.560 --> 00:07:47.439
<v Speaker 2>But the overall movement of the thunderstorms is going to

161
00:07:47.439 --> 00:07:50.839
<v Speaker 2>be driven by generally a southwesterly wind, so storms will

162
00:07:50.879 --> 00:07:54.720
<v Speaker 2>migrate from southwest to northeast in most instances. Not always

163
00:07:54.720 --> 00:07:56.399
<v Speaker 2>the case. You can always get what we call a

164
00:07:56.480 --> 00:08:00.839
<v Speaker 2>backdoor cold front, so it's not always indicative of which

165
00:08:00.839 --> 00:08:02.959
<v Speaker 2>way the storm is going to move, all right.

166
00:08:03.160 --> 00:08:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Dave Frasier another informative. Oh, we didn't even ask what

167
00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:07.240
<v Speaker 1>our weather is going to be, like, I guess we

168
00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:08.920
<v Speaker 1>kind of brushed on a little bit talking about how

169
00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:11.759
<v Speaker 1>nice it is. So no big one coming up, is

170
00:08:11.759 --> 00:08:12.600
<v Speaker 1>what you're saying.

171
00:08:13.439 --> 00:08:15.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, No, you know, A Rod was asking me about

172
00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:17.879
<v Speaker 2>Halloween any chance it's going to be nasty. You know.

173
00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:20.600
<v Speaker 2>The outlook for October still looks warm and drier than normal.

174
00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:23.959
<v Speaker 2>That's been the pattern through September. Our first freeze is

175
00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:26.399
<v Speaker 2>usually the seventh of the month of October. We just

176
00:08:26.439 --> 00:08:28.879
<v Speaker 2>don't see that happening. Our first snow is the eighteenth.

177
00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:30.839
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a stretch this year, so you just

178
00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:32.720
<v Speaker 2>may have to wait for a little more of the fault.

179
00:08:32.720 --> 00:08:34.759
<v Speaker 2>Whether we enjoyed this past weekend, all right.

180
00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:36.519
<v Speaker 1>Dave Frasier, We'll talk to you next week, my friend.

181
00:08:37.279 --> 00:08:37.840
<v Speaker 2>Thanks Manning,