Speaker 1: Joined by our friend and smart weather guy Dave Frasier
Speaker 1: from Box thirty one.
Speaker 2: Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon. I really enjoyed the Richard
Speaker 2: Simmons segment at the top of the show.
Speaker 1: But you know what, what exercise do you? Hey, Dave?
Speaker 1: Everybody has one.
Speaker 2: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard
Speaker 2: of the comedian Johnsanette, Like you said, guy talks all
Speaker 2: about food and exercise.
Speaker 1: I have not. I'm gonna have to go look him up.
Speaker 2: Check out jumping at He's fantastic and he first life
Speaker 2: tried to lose weight and he hired a trainer and
Speaker 2: the trainer said, we're going to start with some push
Speaker 2: ups and some sit ups. And he stopped and he said, listen,
Speaker 2: I don't do upuse I do down.
Speaker 1: All right, then there's my exercise routine. Okay, no problem then.
Speaker 1: So I just want to say a big fat thank you.
Speaker 1: This weather right now is spectacular. How long do we
Speaker 1: get to keep this.
Speaker 2: For the next week? The seven day forecast, even I
Speaker 2: could extend that out to ten days, shows that that's
Speaker 2: staying dry. We just don't see any pattern shifts coming.
Speaker 2: It is a little warm. We're running about ten degrees
Speaker 2: above normal, and it is still possible that tomorrow and
Speaker 2: maybe on Sunday, we could reach ninety again, which isn't
Speaker 2: the latest we've seen a ninety degree temperature, but it's
Speaker 2: certainly something most people don't want to deal with. But
Speaker 2: I've been stressing the last few days. While those temperatures
Speaker 2: are very warm for this time of the year and
Speaker 2: it has been dry, the reality is it's not like
Speaker 2: summer heat, right because you're loving it because you go
Speaker 2: into the evenings and it just cools down so quickly,
Speaker 2: and the organizer are so refreshing. So that's the benefit
Speaker 2: of September, all right.
Speaker 1: I have a question from a listener that texts in
Speaker 1: a little bit, Mandy. Can you ask Dave Frasier about
Speaker 1: weather conditions that create jet contrails. Some days there are
Speaker 1: lots of them, other days not so much.
Speaker 2: It just has to do with the moisture and the
Speaker 2: high upper atmosphere when we have a day, let's take
Speaker 2: today for instance. If you have a day like today
Speaker 2: and it's completely sunning outside and you're looking up, I
Speaker 2: mean there's nothing but blue skies overhead. The air over
Speaker 2: us right now is extremely dry, so the number of
Speaker 2: jets going in and out of di Ia, flying over
Speaker 2: Colorado the same today as they were yesterday. If you
Speaker 2: add in moisture at higher levels, then the contrails will
Speaker 2: become more visual and evidence. So it's just a matter
Speaker 2: of moisture in the atmosphere, and right now we're just
Speaker 2: too dry for that. So I mean, look up at
Speaker 2: the sky. You know there's planes out there, no evidence
Speaker 2: that they're flying around. But if we see the little
Speaker 2: higher humidity into the higher atmosphere, the contrails, the pressurization
Speaker 2: of the jet kind of condensing the moisture in the air,
Speaker 2: then you can see the streets in the sky. So
Speaker 2: just not the setup we have mass. It's all about moisture.
Speaker 1: Okay. So I wanted to ask you. We've got Hurricane
Speaker 1: Helene barreling towards the Gulf coast of Florida, and you
Speaker 1: know it's going to hit my friends in my hometown,
Speaker 1: not directly, but they're going to have a lot of
Speaker 1: rain and wind. This hurricane season has been far quieter
Speaker 1: than was anticipated. Far quieter, yep, yep.
Speaker 2: Yeah. As a matter of fact, I lean only the
Speaker 2: sixth hurricane and it's going to be the second one
Speaker 2: for that area. I don't know if you'll remember. Debbie
Speaker 2: hit back there in the Big Bend area of Florida
Speaker 2: on August fifth of this year, so they haven't had
Speaker 2: much of a break there in the Panhandle. Debbie was
Speaker 2: only a Category one when it came ashore near Tallahassee
Speaker 2: and it caused a lot of damage related to flooding,
Speaker 2: and then it kind of went cut across Georgia and
Speaker 2: went back into the Atlantic before turning back into the Carolinas.
Speaker 2: This one's going to be stronger. We're talking about potentially
Speaker 2: a Category three hurricane. So the yes are going to
Speaker 2: be you know, up past one hundred and ten to
Speaker 2: maybe one hundred and thirty, So you're going to have
Speaker 2: more wind component, you are going to have movine flying
Speaker 2: from heavy rain, but also from the storm surge that
Speaker 2: riseing water that comes ashore. They're also warning of rip currents,
Speaker 2: dangerous rip currents because the storm's coming in perpendicular to
Speaker 2: the coast and so the waves will be curling away
Speaker 2: from the coast course. That's only an issue if people
Speaker 2: go into the water, and they will Ridians, yeah, they will.
Speaker 1: There will be people that will go into the water.
Speaker 1: I can tell you that now.
Speaker 2: I know. It's just amazing. You see these waves in
Speaker 2: it's a category two or a three, and there they are.
Speaker 2: I've just kind of taken advantage of the syrup.
Speaker 1: Category three can can do is extremely destructive. I moved
Speaker 1: to southwest Florida right after Hurricane Charlie, which was a
Speaker 1: Category three when it made landfall at Puntagoda, Florida. And
Speaker 1: when you drove down I seventy five, the eye of
Speaker 1: the storm had tracked directly over I seventy five after
Speaker 1: it came in off of the coastline, and on one
Speaker 1: side of I seventy five, all of the you know
Speaker 1: those giant light poles they have on an interstate, They're massive.
Speaker 1: All of the trees on the on the one side
Speaker 1: were flattened in one direction, and all of the trees
Speaker 1: and light poles on the other side were flattened in
Speaker 1: the opposite direction.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it was crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean, it was like what just happened here? Because
Speaker 1: you know it was it was really really it destroyed
Speaker 1: that entire part of Florida. But it's rebuilds even better.
Speaker 1: So there you go. You never know, Putz Border wasn't
Speaker 1: exactly nice before.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this area is this area has been hard hit,
Speaker 2: I mean Adelia back in August of twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: and then you had hurricanes hit that same area in
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen. So that part of the country,
Speaker 2: as you're well aware, it just doesn't get a break.
Speaker 2: And so this one will also bring heavy rain. Some
Speaker 2: of the heaviest rain will be on the northwest side
Speaker 2: of the storm, which is typical, and that's going to
Speaker 2: drive heavy rain as much as a foot up towards
Speaker 2: Atlanta not even have urbanized flooding. Yeah, it can be
Speaker 2: just a huge problem for those folks as well. So
Speaker 2: and you know, I did you mentioned that it's been
Speaker 2: a little quiet. I'm no hurricane expert, having you know,
Speaker 2: forecast most of my career inland, but I've been reading
Speaker 2: some published papers and stuff, and one of the compounding
Speaker 2: factors they believe is saharan dust, a lot more of
Speaker 2: it in the upper atmosphere drifting over the Atlantic and
Speaker 2: not allowing the waters to warm to the levels that
Speaker 2: they had expected. So the forecast for the hurricane season
Speaker 2: has been reduced a couple of times because of that.
Speaker 2: The number of hurricanes and the number of main storms
Speaker 2: and the number of major storms. A Category three would
Speaker 2: be a major storm.
Speaker 1: Oh, that's a major storm. That's a I would not
Speaker 1: I'll stick around through a Cat too, but I will
Speaker 1: not stick around through a Cat three because it's it's
Speaker 1: incredibly destructive and it's going to be incredibly destructive when
Speaker 1: it lands. So I got one more question from a listener,
Speaker 1: I want to get in before we go here. Can
Speaker 1: the direction of the wind preceding a thunderstorm predict the
Speaker 1: direction the storm is moving? And this is like, okay,
Speaker 1: so I am south of here, and when the storms
Speaker 1: are coming from the north, the wind is whipping up
Speaker 1: from the south. So does that mean that the wind
Speaker 1: is what pulling it? How does that work?
Speaker 2: So no, it's not going to tell you the direction
Speaker 2: it's moving. The direction the storms are going to move
Speaker 2: is based on the mid level winds that are pushing
Speaker 2: them along. They can also form on a cold front,
Speaker 2: so they'll line up along the cold front and march
Speaker 2: as a team. But generally what you have is you
Speaker 2: have a giant vacuum, so the wind ahead of the
Speaker 2: storm is being sucked in. So as the storm is
Speaker 2: approaching to you, the wind is probably going to come
Speaker 2: from you to the storm, so it's drawing the wind up.
Speaker 2: So depending on your location, that wind could be coming
Speaker 2: in from an easterly direction or a southeasterly direction. As
Speaker 2: the storm passes, you can get a cold outflow and
Speaker 2: the wind will go in the opposite direction. We track
Speaker 2: out flowed boundaries all the time, So the wind within
Speaker 2: the individual thunderstorm is going to be erratic. It's going
Speaker 2: to be sucking in ahead of it and potentially blowing
Speaker 2: out behind it, and those directions are going to change.
Speaker 2: But the overall movement of the thunderstorms is going to
Speaker 2: be driven by generally a southwesterly wind, so storms will
Speaker 2: migrate from southwest to northeast in most instances. Not always
Speaker 2: the case. You can always get what we call a
Speaker 2: backdoor cold front, so it's not always indicative of which
Speaker 2: way the storm is going to move, all right.
Speaker 1: Dave Frasier another informative. Oh, we didn't even ask what
Speaker 1: our weather is going to be, like, I guess we
Speaker 1: kind of brushed on a little bit talking about how
Speaker 1: nice it is. So no big one coming up, is
Speaker 1: what you're saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, you know, A Rod was asking me about
Speaker 2: Halloween any chance it's going to be nasty. You know.
Speaker 2: The outlook for October still looks warm and drier than normal.
Speaker 2: That's been the pattern through September. Our first freeze is
Speaker 2: usually the seventh of the month of October. We just
Speaker 2: don't see that happening. Our first snow is the eighteenth.
Speaker 2: I think that's a stretch this year, so you just
Speaker 2: may have to wait for a little more of the fault.
Speaker 2: Whether we enjoyed this past weekend, all right.
Speaker 1: Dave Frasier, We'll talk to you next week, my friend.
Speaker 2: Thanks Manning,