1 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Texas trib Cast for Tuesday, 2 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:24,359 October twenty first, I am Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics 3 00:00:24,399 --> 00:00:27,160 reporter at the Texas Tribune, joined as always by my 4 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,879 co host, editor in chief Matthew Watkins. How's it going, Matthew? 5 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Pretty good? How about yourself? 6 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: Pretty good? I don't have much to talk about this week. 7 00:00:34,799 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 2: We already talked off camera with our special guest about 8 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,159 tortillas and texts. Texts every weekend. 9 00:00:40,359 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: If we run out of things to talk about, we 10 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,600 will revisit the subject. But something tells me we will not, 11 00:00:44,759 --> 00:00:49,640 because this week we have a very important conversation to 12 00:00:49,679 --> 00:00:51,759 sort of pick back up on that we've discussed already 13 00:00:51,759 --> 00:00:54,560 on this podcast once or twice, but is becoming the 14 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,119 predominant political story for the next six months or so 15 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,159 because we actually have a three way race for the 16 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,280 US Senate on the Republican side of the ticket, where 17 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,760 incumbent Senator John Cornyn will be facing off against current 18 00:01:11,799 --> 00:01:15,040 Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, which we knew they've been 19 00:01:15,439 --> 00:01:19,359 sniping at each other for months now, but we now 20 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,439 have our third candidate, which is a US Representative Wesley Hunt, 21 00:01:23,439 --> 00:01:27,319 who finally, after months of speculation, declared that he would 22 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:33,760 be running for the seat. For those who, I do 23 00:01:33,879 --> 00:01:36,840 want to pick a bone with Renzo Downey, who is 24 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,159 the author of our subscriber politics newsletter at the Blast 25 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:44,280 who I believe his headline of the newsletter when Hunt 26 00:01:44,359 --> 00:01:47,640 joined was hunt is in, when so clearly right there 27 00:01:47,719 --> 00:01:50,760 is the hunt is on. So the hunt is on, 28 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:55,920 and we have quite the race ahead of us. So 29 00:01:55,959 --> 00:01:57,319 we're going to talk about what this means for the 30 00:01:57,359 --> 00:02:01,680 next you know, six months of campaigning and the future 31 00:02:01,719 --> 00:02:02,400 of the seat. 32 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: He hopes it doesn't become a snipe hunt. You will, 33 00:02:06,879 --> 00:02:09,840 uh do you know that? 34 00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: Don't is a reference to So discuss that and see 35 00:02:13,439 --> 00:02:16,319 if anyone else can help Matthew, you know, be a 36 00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:18,759 better audience for his jokes than me. We're joined by 37 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:22,039 Gabby beer and Baum, the Washington correspondent for the Texas Tribune, 38 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,039 where she covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact 39 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,319 of federal policy on Texas. Gabby, thanks for joining. 40 00:02:28,159 --> 00:02:30,199 Speaker 3: Us, thanks for having me back. 41 00:02:31,199 --> 00:02:33,879 Speaker 1: And Chad Hasty, the host of The Chad Hasty Show, 42 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,199 which airs weekdays on KFYO and Lubbock and other stations 43 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,599 across the state. Chad, thanks for being here. 44 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for the invitation. 45 00:02:42,199 --> 00:02:43,879 Speaker 2: Chad. You know what snipe hunting is. 46 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I know, I don't know where you were going. 47 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,479 Speaker 2: Okay, thanks. Snipe hunting is when you like take a 48 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,639 new hunter out into the woods or wherever you're going, 49 00:02:54,719 --> 00:02:57,719 like late at night, to tell them we're going snipe hunting, 50 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,159 which is really just a ploy to like ditch them 51 00:03:01,199 --> 00:03:04,360 alone on a field or something like that. It feels 52 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,719 like practical joke. Right, Yeah, you're good. 53 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's yeah, you got here. 54 00:03:09,599 --> 00:03:14,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a actually was a very good thank you. 55 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,520 That was a very good reference, very good potential metaphor. 56 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:23,400 I'm sorry for not knowing more about hunting. Okay, So 57 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,080 to get into this, I do think we should sort 58 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:26,960 of briefly go through the candidates and where they each 59 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,000 stand at this point. And Gabby, maybe you can sort 60 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:34,280 of kick us off before we get to Wesley Hunt. 61 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,879 We had this race Paxton Cornan that's been sort of 62 00:03:36,919 --> 00:03:40,280 foreshadowed for months now. Can you talk a little bit 63 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,280 just about like what each of them represent and where 64 00:03:42,319 --> 00:03:44,080 they stood before he entered the race? 65 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think with Cornan and Paxton. 66 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,319 Speaker 5: You have, you know, the sort of perfect representation of 67 00:03:50,719 --> 00:03:54,879 the establishment versus more political outsider dynamic. Even though right 68 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,400 Paxton is an elected office holder statewide, is the Attorney General. 69 00:03:58,879 --> 00:04:02,360 John Cornyan has been the Senator from Texas since two 70 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,479 thousand and two, he was attorney general before that. Paxton 71 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,199 has been ag since the twenty fourteen elections. 72 00:04:08,199 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 3: And these are two heavy hitters right in Texas politics. 73 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,639 Speaker 5: Paxton has definitely been attacking Cornant from the right, going 74 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:18,480 after some bipartisan work he did on a gun bill, 75 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,120 his you know, bit slow to support Trump in the 76 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:27,040 twenty twenty four primary. And Cornet is sort of relying, 77 00:04:27,079 --> 00:04:30,240 I think on He's been promoting his pro Trump voting records, 78 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,160 sort of hugging Trump, his experience, and like you mentioned, 79 00:04:34,199 --> 00:04:36,240 now we've got a third entrant. 80 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,439 Speaker 1: Into the race, right yeah, Chad, I mean, what were 81 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:43,160 you sort of hearing about these these two contenders and 82 00:04:43,199 --> 00:04:45,040 like how people were sort of feeling about the race 83 00:04:45,079 --> 00:04:47,319 as it stood so far. 84 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 4: You know, it's been interesting because you have Ken Paxton, 85 00:04:53,879 --> 00:04:57,279 who Mike got me and said, is seen as the 86 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:01,319 outsider even though he's been an elected office for Cornyn 87 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:03,839 has been there even longer, he has seen as the 88 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,360 more establishment and for conservatives, a lot of my more 89 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,879 conservative listeners who will get in touch with the show, 90 00:05:11,759 --> 00:05:14,040 they're tired of Cornyn. They don't like that he worked 91 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,680 with Democrats on the gun bill, they don't like, they 92 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:19,639 don't trust and really believe that he is that much 93 00:05:19,639 --> 00:05:22,120 of a fan of Donald Trump. I don't think there's 94 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,879 anyone out there that can envision Trump and Cornyn hanging 95 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,319 out together and going and getting a cup of coffee, 96 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,399 hanging out on the golf course. You've never seen that. 97 00:05:31,519 --> 00:05:34,439 You have seen that with Ken Paxton and Donald Trump. 98 00:05:34,519 --> 00:05:37,720 So I think that for a lot of listeners, they 99 00:05:37,759 --> 00:05:42,040 believe that that is a real relationship in that more importantly, 100 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,199 when Cornyn is out of excuse me, when Trump is 101 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,920 out of office, which will be happening in a few years. 102 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,560 When Trump is out of office, who are they going 103 00:05:51,639 --> 00:05:54,639 to get to defend them? Are they going to get 104 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:59,720 Cornyn style politics or Paxton solid politics? And most of 105 00:05:59,759 --> 00:06:05,680 my listeners seemingly right now straight towards the Paxton Maga 106 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,800 style of politics that they believe they can count on. 107 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like we need to come up with 108 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,600 a new way of describing this from establishment versus outsider 109 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,920 when the outsider is the one who like hangs out 110 00:06:17,959 --> 00:06:20,560 with the president at mar A Lago and like we 111 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,560 can picture golfing with him and the other guy, you know, 112 00:06:23,639 --> 00:06:26,199 we can't, right, It's I guess maybe like more like 113 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,839 old establishment new establishment or something like that. I don't know, 114 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,959 like traditional Republican versus Trump, Republican in. 115 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: The woman embrace out in the cold. 116 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. And of course Cornyan would I think, dispute any 117 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,439 of this craising right, as he has repeatedly and vocally 118 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:48,439 stressed his alignment with Trump on virtually every issue since 119 00:06:48,519 --> 00:06:49,439 since Trump is coming to. 120 00:06:49,439 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: Office, right, and he does vote very reliably with Trump's agenda. 121 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,720 So there's sort of the to your points, the do 122 00:06:55,759 --> 00:06:58,160 they get a beer together? Or is corn And carry 123 00:06:58,199 --> 00:07:00,240 you know? But is corn and carrying the mantle of 124 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,079 his policies in Congress perhaps more? 125 00:07:03,759 --> 00:07:06,959 Speaker 2: Maybe interested if you agree with this, Chad, more of 126 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:11,399 a style versus substance, style over substance conversation on those 127 00:07:11,399 --> 00:07:11,920 two things. 128 00:07:12,079 --> 00:07:16,319 Speaker 4: Totally. I think it is a Cornyn has the record, 129 00:07:16,439 --> 00:07:20,920 and I think that if you look at Republicans in 130 00:07:20,959 --> 00:07:24,800 the Senate, there are a lot, if not boast, if 131 00:07:24,839 --> 00:07:27,279 not all of Republicans who are in the Senate, the 132 00:07:27,319 --> 00:07:31,160 old school Republicans, the Lindsey Grahams, the John Cornyns, the 133 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,160 Mitch McConnell's, even though Mitch is kind of kind of 134 00:07:34,519 --> 00:07:37,920 moved back towards not liking Trump. But the old school 135 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,800 Republicans in the Senate, I don't believe that they really 136 00:07:41,879 --> 00:07:43,959 like Donald Trump that much. I think they put up 137 00:07:43,959 --> 00:07:48,519 with them and they go with what's politically expedient. Whereas 138 00:07:48,639 --> 00:07:52,240 Ken Paxton, I think it's a little bit more believable that, yeah, 139 00:07:52,319 --> 00:07:54,079 those two would go golfing together. 140 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: Well and Gabby, I mean they were sort of already 141 00:07:59,079 --> 00:08:03,120 the establishment necessarily as a binary group, but just sort 142 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,519 of like the groups that fund these races, that put 143 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:09,120 money into this were sort of backing Cornyn, not thrilled 144 00:08:09,199 --> 00:08:12,000 already to have him be challenged by Paxton, sort of 145 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,160 kicking off this potentially very expensive primary, and sort of 146 00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:19,759 how were they feeling about, you know, like the money class, 147 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,639 how were they feeling about this race, and then how 148 00:08:22,639 --> 00:08:25,399 were they starting. What was the word on Hunt entering 149 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:26,519 before he did. 150 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 5: I think the word on Hunt from the sort of 151 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,159 dec establishment would be contempt they you know, as he 152 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,440 was right signaling that he was interested in the race, 153 00:08:35,519 --> 00:08:38,559 exploring it, they put out a series of memos to 154 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,840 donors and eventually publicly discouraging him from doing so. He 155 00:08:42,879 --> 00:08:44,720 you know, it's been reported that he met with Tim Scott, 156 00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:47,039 the chair Senator Tim Scott, the chairman of the National 157 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,159 Republican Senatorial Committee, which is Senate Republican's sort of campaign 158 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,639 arm and they told him and know on certain terms, no, 159 00:08:52,879 --> 00:08:55,440 you know, we're backing John Cornyn. And so you know, 160 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:59,240 they already have been frustrated by the Paxton primary at all, 161 00:08:59,279 --> 00:09:01,559 and now they have the other person. And I think 162 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,440 for Hunt that also plays into what he's trying to do, 163 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,600 which is say I'm not part of the establishment. 164 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't want me here. 165 00:09:07,159 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 5: That's for a reason, and trying to sort of claim 166 00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:13,679 the Paxton Es commantle among the Texas primary electorate. 167 00:09:14,759 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: So let's talk about Wesley Hunt. Like you said, people 168 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,120 were not thrilled that he was going to enter the race, 169 00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:25,399 but he has. Now he is, you know, a current 170 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:32,320 sitting congressman representing a district in Houston. Gabbie. Who is he, 171 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,039 what does he represent and how is he positioning himself. 172 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Hunt is a second term congressman, so 173 00:09:38,399 --> 00:09:41,080 he doesn't have a huge record right actually in Congress. 174 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,759 I think how he would describe himself as he's someone 175 00:09:43,799 --> 00:09:46,840 who could sort of bridge the divide between the sort 176 00:09:46,879 --> 00:09:50,480 of old money, old guard Republican establishment and the sort 177 00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:53,039 of newer Maga energy. It's been a huge ally of 178 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,120 President Trump's. He was out stumping for him all through 179 00:09:55,159 --> 00:09:58,919 twenty twenty four on the trail. You know, his district 180 00:09:59,639 --> 00:10:02,720 can take both the sort of old donor class in 181 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,919 West Houston and Tom Ball right super Maga suburb area. 182 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,200 So I think his goal would be to try to replicate. 183 00:10:07,759 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 3: That coalition statewide. 184 00:10:09,759 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 5: Obviously he has, you know, does not have the record 185 00:10:12,039 --> 00:10:17,639 that either Paxton or Cornan has legislatively or in terms 186 00:10:17,639 --> 00:10:20,440 of what Paxton's done with the Astorney General's office. And 187 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,240 so I think for him, it's it's more about trying 188 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,759 to position himself as an heir to the sort of 189 00:10:24,919 --> 00:10:28,360 mega credentials more than running on his record. 190 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,879 Speaker 1: Ched what's the sort of name recognition there with with 191 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:34,000 Wesley Hunt. 192 00:10:37,519 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 4: Not much. He's been coming on my show starting going 193 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,879 back to you know, late last year, he was coming 194 00:10:44,919 --> 00:10:47,559 on the show quite a bit raising that name. 195 00:10:47,639 --> 00:10:47,879 Speaker 1: I D. 196 00:10:48,159 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 4: That's when I went, Okay, this scene s he's running 197 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,360 for some you know, you don't have a guy from 198 00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:54,919 you know, that part of Texas coming out to West 199 00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:59,360 Texas that often. So he started coming on raising his name. 200 00:10:59,399 --> 00:11:01,519 I D he doesn't have great name. 201 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:01,799 Speaker 1: I T. 202 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,279 Speaker 4: Those who you know are diehard talk show listeners, they 203 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,639 may know who he is, or at least they've heard him. 204 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,279 But is he is well known as Paxton? No, he 205 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,559 is well known as Corynn. Absolutely not nowhere close. But 206 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,279 what I have heard from folks who like Wesley Hunt, 207 00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:24,960 it's usually a younger Republican, a younger demographic or a Republican, 208 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,679 and also someone who looks at Cornyn and goes, I 209 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,080 don't think I can vote for Cornan Paxton. I don't 210 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:39,159 like the either real or perceived baggage that Paxton carries 211 00:11:39,159 --> 00:11:44,639 with him. Leslie hunts Hey, he's conservative, he's uber conservative, 212 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,799 he's uber maga. Why not? 213 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,879 Speaker 2: So? The million dollar question I think that everyone is 214 00:11:51,919 --> 00:11:55,639 sort of asking and maybe not sure the answer now 215 00:11:55,799 --> 00:11:59,879 is who does Hunt's inclusion in the race hurt more? 216 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,000 Cornyn or Paxton? What's your opinion on that? Chad. 217 00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:09,399 Speaker 4: I believe it hurts corn And here's why. I think 218 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:16,039 that there are there's a certain segment of conservative Republicans 219 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,399 who won't vote for Ken Paxton because of the baggage. 220 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,759 I think that they won't vote for Paxton and they 221 00:12:23,759 --> 00:12:25,879 don't want to vote for Corny. They were looking for somebody. 222 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,919 Now I think he takes votes away from Cornyn and 223 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,279 that's what gets Paxton and Cornyn into a runoff. I 224 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,600 think that again, I think Wesley Hunt wants to win. 225 00:12:38,519 --> 00:12:42,480 But if Paxton was still up by fifteen to twenty 226 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,120 points in the polls, I don't think Hunt would have 227 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,360 announced it right now that he was jumping into this race. 228 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 3: Do you agree with that, Gabby, Yeah, I think that's 229 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,279 definitely a fair point. I think the sort of the 230 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:55,399 other side of that would be. 231 00:12:55,399 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 5: And I've heard this from some academics that you know, 232 00:12:57,399 --> 00:13:00,279 cornyin kind of has what and it's hard to like, 233 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,480 you know, put these on ideological spectrums, but corn has 234 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,960 we could call the center right lane to himself. And 235 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,759 now you have both, even though obviously Cornyn wants support 236 00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:10,120 from more MAGA voters. Now you have both Paxson and 237 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,399 Hunt in the sort of mag Lane and that could 238 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,279 potentially dilute that vote. I guess that would just be 239 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,559 the other side of that. But I go back and 240 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,519 forth because I feel like I see both sides, and 241 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,519 a lot of poles show he's pulling fifty to fifty 242 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:22,799 from both or close to it. 243 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,879 Speaker 2: So I have a poll in front of me, ut 244 00:13:27,039 --> 00:13:30,200 Tyler Pole, which was admittedly taken in the field back 245 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,960 in September before Hunt went into this race. In the 246 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,200 among the Republican primary electorate, they asked, you know who 247 00:13:37,279 --> 00:13:40,960 you'd vote for, Cornyn Packson. Cornan led thirty nine thirty 248 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:46,519 seven with twenty three percent undecided. With Hunt in the race. 249 00:13:46,759 --> 00:13:51,440 It was Paston thirty one, Cornin twenty nine, Hunt fourteen 250 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,200 and twenty six percent undecided. So actually the undecided number 251 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,039 went up three percent with Hunt in the race, which 252 00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:00,879 I thought was interesting. But would to you know, support 253 00:14:00,919 --> 00:14:04,000 both of y'all's theory that at least, you know, maybe 254 00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:09,279 not in a massive way. But from that poll, Hunt 255 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:14,360 pulling more Cornan voters than Paxton voters. 256 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,639 Speaker 1: That is interesting because right I think, you know, you 257 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:18,960 might think from the outside, well, if he and Paxton 258 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,559 are fighting over the same voters, But I do think 259 00:14:21,639 --> 00:14:24,559 that the Paxton, you know, like you said, the real 260 00:14:24,679 --> 00:14:28,720 or perceived baggage is sort of the wild card here 261 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,120 as much as anything, and is interesting. Hunt is sort 262 00:14:32,159 --> 00:14:35,480 of starting himself off. He's not saying I'm Paxton without 263 00:14:35,519 --> 00:14:38,240 the baggage. He's saying, oh, I'm a younger Paxton, which 264 00:14:38,279 --> 00:14:40,519 is sort of, you know, certainly not an issue that's 265 00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:43,440 been raised around Ken Paxton. He's younger than John Cornyan, 266 00:14:44,399 --> 00:14:47,000 younger than many of our elective officials. 267 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,879 Speaker 2: But Gabby, you I think pointed out or someone pointed 268 00:14:50,919 --> 00:14:54,039 out in the story that you wrote this week last 269 00:14:54,039 --> 00:14:59,000 week last week, that maybe he doesn't have to go 270 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:04,320 after Paxson for the baggage because other people are going 271 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,480 to go after packing yourself, let the people. 272 00:15:07,759 --> 00:15:09,919 Speaker 5: Yeah, it kind of feels like the Spider Man meme 273 00:15:09,919 --> 00:15:13,279 where everyone's pointing at someone else. Right, Like Cornan is 274 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,720 attacking Paxton constantly in Cornon's allies, so there's no need 275 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:18,960 for Hunt to necessarily do that, especially trying to win 276 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,879 those same voters. Hunt is attacking corn and I think 277 00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:24,639 to sort of try to that helps prove his uh, 278 00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:26,480 you know, his magat credentials. 279 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: Uh. 280 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 5: And then Paxton is also attacking Cornin although for the 281 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,080 most part Pakston has that really started spending and so 282 00:15:33,159 --> 00:15:36,600 with everybody sort of pointing at each other, yeah, it 283 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,399 sort of quits a scenario where there's going to be 284 00:15:38,519 --> 00:15:41,120 negative chatter about each person, but maybe coming from a 285 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:41,639 different one. 286 00:15:42,639 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: I mean, Attorney General Ken Paxton has since before he 287 00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:49,879 even entered office, it had some had some cloud hanging 288 00:15:49,919 --> 00:15:53,519 over him with different scales, and you know, he has 289 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,960 withstood an impeachment attempt, most of his legal issues have 290 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,799 been resolved. He has been elected three times the state 291 00:16:01,799 --> 00:16:07,519 wide office. Despite that, Is there any reason to think 292 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,440 now is different? And is the divorce playing into that 293 00:16:11,519 --> 00:16:11,759 at all? 294 00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:12,159 Speaker 2: Chad? 295 00:16:12,279 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: Do you have a sense of that. 296 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 4: I don't think any of the other stuff really matters 297 00:16:19,039 --> 00:16:22,080 for the average Republican voter. I don't think any of 298 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,799 that matters. Maybe the divorce plays in a little bit. 299 00:16:25,919 --> 00:16:29,200 I this, I mean, let's let's let's be honest here. 300 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,799 This isn't two thousand and one. This isn't uh, you know, 301 00:16:32,919 --> 00:16:37,120 the the old school Bush Republican Party where you know, 302 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,399 if you had a divorce or you cheated on your wife, 303 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,679 that was automatically you're you're exiled. Uh, you know into uh, 304 00:16:43,879 --> 00:16:45,960 you know, into the uh, you know, out of the 305 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:50,279 Republican Party that's not this Republican Party. Uh. So I 306 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,919 don't think there's a huge focus there. Again, I think 307 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:59,120 it's a very small selection of Republican voters who look 308 00:16:59,159 --> 00:17:02,279 at Paxton and go, if you didn't have that baggage, 309 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,559 I would vote for you, But they can't vote for Corning. 310 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,640 So they needed that other person. And I think that's 311 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,440 where Wesley Hunt comes into play here. And you look 312 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,480 at Cornyn and you look at the Paxton camp, the 313 00:17:15,519 --> 00:17:19,480 Paxton camp. Aside from some Twitter comments, no one's really 314 00:17:19,559 --> 00:17:23,240 punched down at Wesley Hunt. The Corner campaign went immediately 315 00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:27,400 after Wesley Hunt and went after him pretty hard on 316 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,119 a few things that most voters don't care about right now. Anyway, 317 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,039 he's missed two hundred votes or whatever. No one in 318 00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:36,880 the Republican primary at this point cares about that. So 319 00:17:37,079 --> 00:17:41,279 I think, again, the baggage, you know, the only baggage 320 00:17:41,319 --> 00:17:44,079 that really matters, I think for Republican voters, Kid, I 321 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,799 think it's a very small select number is the divorce 322 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,839 and how some of that may or may not be 323 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:51,240 playing now. Jen. 324 00:17:51,559 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 2: It's been interesting though, because when Paxton entered the race, 325 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,079 the conventionalism and the polling seemed to suggest that he 326 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:05,359 had a very large lead over Cornyn, and that lead 327 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,720 pulling seems to suggest has either shrunk significantly or disappeared. 328 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,240 You know, there has been, you know, as has been mentioned, 329 00:18:14,279 --> 00:18:18,480 some negative headlines. The divorce, the you know, the impeachment 330 00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:22,480 trial in part was centered around you know, accusations that 331 00:18:22,559 --> 00:18:25,880 he was having an affair with someone, I mean, the 332 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,480 impeachment also, you know, I mean a lot of very 333 00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:33,799 conservative people in his office directly accused him of a crime. 334 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:38,039 I mean, And the US Senate race is different than 335 00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:40,559 an attorney general race, Like, I think probably more people 336 00:18:40,599 --> 00:18:43,759 in Texas know who their senators are than know who 337 00:18:44,079 --> 00:18:48,559 the attorney general is. I'm curious, I sort of I 338 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:50,480 hear you say that, and I believe you, and I 339 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,559 think you're probably right that some of these problems don't 340 00:18:53,599 --> 00:18:57,839 have an effect on you know, Paxson among the Republican 341 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:01,279 primary electorate. But then I see his le sort of evaporating, 342 00:19:01,319 --> 00:19:04,240 and I'm trying to figure out what accounts for that? 343 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,599 Is it a mirage? Are these things starting to land 344 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,519 with him? Like? What do you think about that? 345 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,759 Speaker 4: I think that it's it's where money comes into play. 346 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:20,680 And you have the Corning campaign and money that from 347 00:19:20,839 --> 00:19:27,440 from the Republican I guess Republican Senate Committee that has 348 00:19:27,519 --> 00:19:30,480 come in and really spent a lot millions of dollars 349 00:19:30,519 --> 00:19:35,119 already backing John Cornyn and promoting Hey, John Corn's best 350 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:39,240 friends with Donald Trump. Those two like each other. John 351 00:19:39,279 --> 00:19:41,839 corn has voted with Donald Trump ninety nine percent of 352 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,839 the time. Not wrong, by the way, but they're promoting 353 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,119 all the good things. And as Gabby mentioned, the Paxton camp, 354 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,480 they've done a lot of online stuff. They've done, you know, 355 00:19:51,559 --> 00:19:55,359 some tweets, but they haven't gone full throated after John 356 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,279 Cornyn yet in TV ads. So that's that's where the 357 00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:02,119 money war comes in the play here. And who's going 358 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,519 to be best, uh, you know, the best in the 359 00:20:05,519 --> 00:20:08,400 best area with money, and right now that's John Cornyn. 360 00:20:08,759 --> 00:20:11,759 He's able to get his message out there. And and 361 00:20:11,799 --> 00:20:14,079 you know, I still go back to there are so 362 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:18,359 many voters they don't pay attention unfortunately, Uh, they don't 363 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,519 pay attention to what happens in down in Austin. They're 364 00:20:21,559 --> 00:20:26,240 not always paying attention to what's happening in the legislative process, 365 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,440 and when it gets to some of the politics and 366 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,200 all that, they really don't pay attention. They care about 367 00:20:31,319 --> 00:20:34,160 the votes, and they care about what they see on TV. 368 00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:38,200 And uh that that right now has I think that's 369 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,200 what's brought up John Corn's numbers and lowered Ken Paxton's numbers. 370 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,799 Speaker 1: Yeah, Gaby, can you talk us through a little bit 371 00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:47,039 more like where the money stands and what that says 372 00:20:47,039 --> 00:20:48,039 about their prospects. 373 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 5: Yeah, so the corn in camp, and I would say, 374 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:52,920 you know, more of the super pack that's backing him, 375 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,519 and that's you know, being managed by Chris los Avita, right, 376 00:20:55,559 --> 00:20:59,680 Who's Who's Trump's guy. They've you know, the constellation of 377 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,079 pro enforces have spent I think close to thirty million 378 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,440 dollars on this race. And I think if you turned 379 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,039 on the TV right in any of the media markets 380 00:21:07,039 --> 00:21:08,960 in Texas, you know you're seeing pictures of Corn in 381 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,079 with Trump and that that you know, ninety nine percent 382 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,240 pro Trump voting record, stuff like that. The backs and campaign, 383 00:21:14,279 --> 00:21:15,799 like Tad mentioned, really has. 384 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,559 Speaker 3: Not spent money at scale, and so I think. 385 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 5: You know, there they feel like they can wait, they 386 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,000 can afford to wait until later in the race. 387 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,160 Speaker 3: They also have a lot. 388 00:21:24,079 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 5: Less money than the corn In campaign, and so I 389 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,599 think we'll have to see once they start spending how 390 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,480 that changes things. But I think a Cornin optimist would say, yeah, 391 00:21:32,519 --> 00:21:34,440 he's closed the gap. All this polling shows that it's 392 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,960 really close, and a pessimist might say, well, you know, 393 00:21:38,079 --> 00:21:40,119 even in these races, he's an even in these polls, 394 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,960 he's a sitting incumban, and he's not really getting over 395 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000 forty percent. And as you mentioned, there's still you know, 396 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,480 about a quarter of the elector and most of these 397 00:21:46,519 --> 00:21:50,279 polls that haven't decided. Uh, And you know that's one factor. 398 00:21:50,279 --> 00:21:52,319 The other factor is, I think this will be interesting too, 399 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,920 more independent leaning voters, which primary do they end up 400 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,359 voting in if at all, you know, do they end 401 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,200 up voting in their Republican primary, credit primary or sitting out? 402 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:02,519 And so I think these are some of the things 403 00:22:02,519 --> 00:22:04,680 that we still don't know yet and are going to develop. 404 00:22:05,599 --> 00:22:07,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think the conventional wisdom, as we 405 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,960 the thing we haven't talked about with Hunt is that 406 00:22:10,279 --> 00:22:14,480 three candidates increases the likelihood of a runoff. And if 407 00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:17,200 you are the establishment candidate, if you are the incumbent, 408 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,000 a runoff is not a place you want to be, 409 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,559 and so that alone could could could hurt Cornan in 410 00:22:23,599 --> 00:22:26,319 that way. I want to circle back really quickly to 411 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,839 something that I find incredibly fascinating. Gabby. You mentioned the 412 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:34,920 NRSC right, the UH, the the Republican kind of arm campaign, 413 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:40,599 arm for for for the Senate, and they're strong support 414 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,920 of Cornan. I'm going to read a handful of quotes 415 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,759 from n r SC communications director Joanna Rodriguez that have 416 00:22:47,839 --> 00:22:51,160 come out in recent months. What Ken Paxon has put 417 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,519 his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one 418 00:22:54,559 --> 00:22:57,640 should have to endure what Angela Paxson has, and we 419 00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,880 pray that she chooses to stand up for herself and 420 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,759 family during this time. That's one quote. A lot of 421 00:23:04,759 --> 00:23:07,680 people who trust Kim Paxton get lied to, so it 422 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,559 isn't shocking to learn he's also cheating on his taxes 423 00:23:10,559 --> 00:23:15,240 in personal finances. Texans deserve a senator who protects children, 424 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,279 not one like Paxton, who signed off on your tax 425 00:23:18,319 --> 00:23:23,759 dollars funding the woke left. And Kim Paxton's incompetence is 426 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,480 chief law enforcement officer has allowed crime to run rampant 427 00:23:27,519 --> 00:23:31,359 across the lone Star state. They also try to Wesley 428 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,839 Hunt for personal ambition for running to this race instead 429 00:23:34,839 --> 00:23:37,839 of you know, thinking through. It's wild to me to 430 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:42,960 hear the NRSC, which is devoted to electing Republicans to 431 00:23:43,039 --> 00:23:49,400 the US Senate, be blasting perhaps the front runner in 432 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,799 the Republican primary in that kind of language, you know, 433 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,240 a year before election day. It tell me a little 434 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,480 bit about like, what what's going on here? And are 435 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,720 they not worried that all these quotes are going to 436 00:24:04,799 --> 00:24:06,799 come back and bite them when if we get to 437 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,160 a position where Ken Paxon is the nominee. 438 00:24:09,519 --> 00:24:13,079 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Joanna is not shy. That's certainly part 439 00:24:13,079 --> 00:24:16,359 of it. A. I think the things to understand are one, like, 440 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,839 these organizations like the NRSC exist to protect their own right. 441 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,519 I mean, their number one job is protecting their incumbents. 442 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,400 Number two is growing the map, right is adding seats 443 00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:27,759 and the incumbent. You know, the incumbents will give them 444 00:24:27,759 --> 00:24:29,799 hell if they feel like, you know, they're not getting 445 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,079 they're not getting properly helped there. 446 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,160 Speaker 2: A B. 447 00:24:33,839 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 5: They feel like they've a finite amount of resources. This 448 00:24:37,039 --> 00:24:39,799 is a big map. They're trying to pick up a seat, 449 00:24:39,839 --> 00:24:42,079 in Georgia, they've got to defend a seat in Maine, 450 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,440 they've got to defend a seed in North Carolina, maybe 451 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,519 Alaska comes into play. You know, they don't want to 452 00:24:47,519 --> 00:24:49,599 be spending money in Texas, and so they feel like 453 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,559 if they're going to spend, they'd rather spend in the 454 00:24:51,599 --> 00:24:54,079 primary to help Corny then have to you know, keep 455 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,839 spending through the general because they do feel that Paxon 456 00:24:58,039 --> 00:25:01,559 is vulnerable in a general election, you know, and people can. 457 00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 3: Argue about whether that's true or not. 458 00:25:03,079 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 5: If I've heard some people say, you know, maybe Cornon 459 00:25:05,759 --> 00:25:07,880 wins by eight and Paxson wins by four, you know, 460 00:25:08,079 --> 00:25:09,880 and some people say, no, this really does feel like 461 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:11,400 it's a liability. 462 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 3: Given what happened in eighteen with Senator Cruz. 463 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 5: Right, But I think the nrsc's mission right now is 464 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,920 to a protect the incumbent and be properly adjudicate their resources. 465 00:25:21,319 --> 00:25:23,200 And you know, they'll say, they'll say, any dollar we 466 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,200 spend in Texas is a dollar that could have been 467 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,599 spent in Maine, or in North Carolina, or in Georgia, 468 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,240 and we don't want to have to worry about this 469 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:29,880 red state. 470 00:25:30,039 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 4: Right. 471 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean I think there's obviously a real 472 00:25:32,799 --> 00:25:35,359 chance that Ken Paxton becomes the nominee. 473 00:25:35,039 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 3: And then they are going to have to support him 474 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:37,640 and perhaps eat their. 475 00:25:37,559 --> 00:25:40,319 Speaker 1: Words a little bit and listen. It doesn't This is 476 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,640 not the most important part what we should say in 477 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,279 Texas the attorney general is not the top law enforcement officer. 478 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,400 They are the top lawyer. They have no criminal independent 479 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:52,039 criminal jurisdiction. It doesn't matter anyway. The other piece of 480 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:57,640 this that we don't yet have is the much desired 481 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,359 Trump endorsements that could sway this a lot. JAHI, where 482 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,039 do you see that going and how much of an 483 00:26:03,039 --> 00:26:05,079 impact do you think that makes? When we do hear 484 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:06,279 from the president. 485 00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 4: I think Trump stays out of it unless something insane happens. 486 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,319 I just I think that Trump he want one. He 487 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,960 wants the vote of John Cornyn while John Cornyn is there, 488 00:26:20,279 --> 00:26:23,960 so he doesn't want to upset that. And John Cornyn 489 00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:26,759 has for the most part, been very loyal to Trump 490 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,000 while Trump's been elected and in office. Has Cornyn made 491 00:26:32,079 --> 00:26:35,640 other comments while Trump's not in office, Absolutely he has. 492 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,559 But while in office, Trump or excuse me, Cornyn has 493 00:26:38,599 --> 00:26:43,799 been a loyal soldier. Trump appreciates loyalty we all know 494 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,799 that we've seen that before that Trump appreciates loyalty. I 495 00:26:47,799 --> 00:26:49,599 think he stays out of it. I don't think that 496 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:55,880 he endorses in a primary. If it goes to a runoff, 497 00:26:56,599 --> 00:27:01,119 maybe maybe he would, but I don't think the politics 498 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,440 of it right now for the White House, I think 499 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,440 they look at it and go where, we don't want 500 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,759 to touch this because we don't want to anger either 501 00:27:08,839 --> 00:27:11,680 side because we're going to need their vote at some point. 502 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly, right, It's like it could sort of bring 503 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,279 all of this to an end pretty quickly if he 504 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,759 did intervene. But you're right that there's sort of not 505 00:27:21,079 --> 00:27:24,799 a huge strategic benefit to there to the Trump camp 506 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:25,559 to do that. 507 00:27:26,079 --> 00:27:29,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, should we talk about the Democrats. 508 00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: The other side of the ticket. I was just going 509 00:27:30,759 --> 00:27:33,160 to say, yeah, there is another race particular. 510 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know James Talerico, Colin Allred, so far, so far, 511 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:44,160 tall Rico of course. You know a lot of like 512 00:27:44,759 --> 00:27:48,240 early Beto vibes, you know, in terms of ability to 513 00:27:48,319 --> 00:27:49,400 raise money, getting some. 514 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,839 Speaker 1: Attention, Barack Obama shout out. 515 00:27:51,839 --> 00:27:55,799 Speaker 2: Barack Obama's shout out, you know, excited people on social media, 516 00:27:56,279 --> 00:28:00,319 all those types of things. I'm looking at this ut 517 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:07,519 Tyler pole, which you know pulls the hypothetical matchups, has 518 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,599 Cornan beating tall Rico by six, has Paxton beating tall 519 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,880 Rico by one. If you look at Colin Allred and 520 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,839 also has uh Tallerco actually beating Hunt by one, although 521 00:28:19,839 --> 00:28:23,400 there's a lot of undecideds in all those numbers. If 522 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,279 you look at all Red, h Cornan beating all Read 523 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:32,039 by six, beating Paxton by three. 524 00:28:32,319 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: Already beats Paxton by three. Tall Rico loses to Paxson 525 00:28:36,039 --> 00:28:36,319 by one. 526 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,839 Speaker 2: Is that what you said first? And before we go 527 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:45,920 into that, go ahead, Chad, give us the uh, give 528 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,200 us tell us what we should be thinking about these polls, 529 00:28:49,559 --> 00:28:52,200 you know, more than a year ahead of the election season. 530 00:28:53,279 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 4: They're fun to talk about. They're fun. It gives us 531 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:02,880 something to talk about. But it doesn't matter I prove it. 532 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,119 You know, it's one of those I've seen how many 533 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,240 times have we seen this from the Democrats and the 534 00:29:07,799 --> 00:29:11,240 the the early race that that's out there, whether it 535 00:29:11,359 --> 00:29:14,680 was Beto or even calling all Red. Hey, we're excited, 536 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:19,640 this person has momentum. We're so far away and they're 537 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,759 beating Republicans. Have the numbers in Texas Republicans are going 538 00:29:23,839 --> 00:29:26,440 to turn up the vote. We know that they're They're 539 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:27,920 going to show up for their guy. I think, no 540 00:29:28,039 --> 00:29:31,880 matter who it is, I'm not that part honestly does 541 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:35,000 not worry me. Who gets the nomination and if tall 542 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,559 Rico or all Red is going to be able to 543 00:29:37,559 --> 00:29:40,279 beat them if I were the Democrats, and they will 544 00:29:40,319 --> 00:29:42,559 not listen to me, I know this, But if I 545 00:29:42,599 --> 00:29:45,920 were to give advice to the Democrats, go all in 546 00:29:46,039 --> 00:29:50,079 with tallar Rico. You lost with all Rid already, go 547 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,559 all in now with Tall Rico, save your money in 548 00:29:53,599 --> 00:29:56,359 the primary, and just get ready for an all out 549 00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,839 war in the general election. And I mean Tall Rico 550 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,359 I think is the Democrats' best bet as of right now. 551 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,519 Colin Alred has shown that he can't win. He can't 552 00:30:08,519 --> 00:30:11,079 beat John Cornyn, He's not going to beat Ken Baxton. 553 00:30:12,119 --> 00:30:16,000 Democrats kind of want that outsider, that younger voice. To me, 554 00:30:16,119 --> 00:30:20,920 that's Tall Rico. He presents a different argument that's out there. Again. 555 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,200 I don't think that he can win. But if I 556 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,759 were the Democrats, I'd put all the money, all my 557 00:30:27,799 --> 00:30:30,759 cards on Tall Rico and tell Colin Alred it's time 558 00:30:30,759 --> 00:30:31,319 to bow out. 559 00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:35,759 Speaker 2: Geby. Do you think the Republican establishment, the people working 560 00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:39,160 for the campaigns agree, would they rather face already over 561 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:39,759 tall Rico. 562 00:30:40,519 --> 00:30:42,799 Speaker 3: I think they'd rather face Jasmine Crockett. 563 00:30:44,759 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 5: Because they are definitely trying to push polls that show 564 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,400 her head and promoting that narrative, which she's well aware of. 565 00:30:51,799 --> 00:30:53,839 Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean I kind of yeah. 566 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 5: I think from what I can tell, they feel like 567 00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,359 they could win either way, and I certainly all the 568 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:02,480 history would back that up. 569 00:31:02,599 --> 00:31:02,799 Speaker 4: Right. 570 00:31:04,039 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 3: It helps that they've already beat all Red, and. 571 00:31:05,839 --> 00:31:08,519 Speaker 5: You know, the attacks on all Read particularly, I think 572 00:31:08,519 --> 00:31:11,720 the attacks around trans women and men's sports right were 573 00:31:11,759 --> 00:31:15,559 really effective last cycle. You know, those ads ran at 574 00:31:15,599 --> 00:31:19,000 scale last cycle. That's probably already in people's minds. Tallerco 575 00:31:19,279 --> 00:31:20,960 is newer, right, you have to go to the business 576 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,920 of defining him, which they've already done for all Red. 577 00:31:23,559 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 3: So yeah, I think maybe that's that's probably part of it. 578 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,559 But you know, Taller Reco, that's what the primers be about. 579 00:31:31,559 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 5: Can he get his sort of name idea up enough 580 00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,079 to beat someone who like Colonel Read, who most people 581 00:31:36,079 --> 00:31:37,799 already know because he did run statewide. 582 00:31:39,039 --> 00:31:43,319 Speaker 2: So jed your confidence in the Republicans suggests to me 583 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:47,200 that you don't think that the Republican primary voters should 584 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:52,240 be making a what's our best chance in November calculation? Here? 585 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:53,160 Is that? Right? 586 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:59,599 Speaker 4: No? I think that the Republican primary voters should vote 587 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,960 for who represents them and who they want to fight 588 00:32:03,039 --> 00:32:07,200 for them moving forward, because and again, until we see 589 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,440 something that's different from the Democrats, they haven't shown that 590 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,480 they can come out and win statewide office. And so 591 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,240 you know, taking down a US senator, taking a US 592 00:32:17,279 --> 00:32:22,400 Senate seat would be a huge monumental shift in Texas, 593 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,160 and I don't see that with I don't think that 594 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,079 with either of these candidates. And I think with Ken 595 00:32:28,119 --> 00:32:31,319 Paxton and with John Cornyn, eventually the Republicans are just 596 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,440 going to turn out and they're going to vote in this. 597 00:32:33,599 --> 00:32:36,880 So I would know, I would just tell Republican primary voters, 598 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,839 whoever you like the best, go and vote for that person. 599 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's you know. I do think a lot of 600 00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:47,079 the speculation about who can win, you know, at the 601 00:32:47,319 --> 00:32:50,000 at the general feel so far away right now from 602 00:32:50,039 --> 00:32:51,759 you know, what the average voter is thinking about. To 603 00:32:51,799 --> 00:32:53,839 your point, Chad of like, how much does anyone follow 604 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,079 any of this? Like I don't you know. I think 605 00:32:56,119 --> 00:33:00,359 the average voter is listening to the ads and going 606 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,119 with what they know versus some like strategic three D 607 00:33:03,319 --> 00:33:06,799 chess game, probably a. 608 00:33:06,759 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 2: Game that the Democrats would tell you often doesn't work 609 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,160 out very well. Right, Like, it's harder than maybe we 610 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:15,680 think to predict who actually fair will fare better in 611 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:16,519 a general election. 612 00:33:16,799 --> 00:33:19,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, three D chess sometimes gets on top of you 613 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,480 a little bit. Yeah, you know, this is like a 614 00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,599 completely separate piece of this, But Gabby, I did want 615 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,279 to just briefly touch on your story this week about 616 00:33:30,519 --> 00:33:33,839 a much sooner congressional race that is coming up just 617 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,680 right around the corner. Early voting has started for Texas 618 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:43,319 eight Texas's eighteenth congressional district, which is, to put it lightly, 619 00:33:44,119 --> 00:33:46,759 a mess of a race. We've got like a very 620 00:33:46,759 --> 00:33:49,240 confusing situation on our hands. Could you just briefly sort 621 00:33:49,279 --> 00:33:51,160 of summarize what's going on there and what you're watching 622 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:51,440 out for. 623 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,039 Speaker 5: Yeah, I was trying to explain this to my grandma 624 00:33:54,119 --> 00:33:56,559 the other day, which was a very difficult task. 625 00:33:57,559 --> 00:33:57,799 Speaker 3: Yeah. 626 00:33:57,799 --> 00:34:00,720 Speaker 5: So people recall Texas eighteen has been without a long 627 00:34:00,799 --> 00:34:03,759 term solution for a while. It's in Houston, it's had 628 00:34:03,759 --> 00:34:08,000 a history of having sort of really storied black Democratic politicians. 629 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:10,199 Speaker 3: It had been Sheila Jackson Lee for years. 630 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 5: She died in the summer of twenty twenty four, you know, 631 00:34:13,559 --> 00:34:16,960 after the primary. So the Harris County Democratic Party got 632 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,559 together and picked the former mayor, Sylvester Turner to be 633 00:34:20,599 --> 00:34:21,840 on the ballot in November. 634 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:23,280 Speaker 3: He won, he took. 635 00:34:23,079 --> 00:34:25,559 Speaker 5: Office in January, and then he passed away in March. 636 00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:29,239 So the seat has been open ever since. Governor Abbott 637 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,280 set the special election date for this November, right, so 638 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,559 early voting just started. And what's even more confusing is 639 00:34:35,599 --> 00:34:38,519 that this election is taking place under the old lines 640 00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:41,119 rights to fill out a term that was elected under 641 00:34:41,119 --> 00:34:44,280 the old map, but seventy five percent of the voters 642 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,800 in the current eighteen are being moved to other districts 643 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,639 under the new map, So there's a lot of confusion 644 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,800 about who can even vote. A lot of neighborhoods, you know, 645 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,800 in the northern end of Harris County that are right 646 00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,719 now in Texas eighteen that are going to be moved 647 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,320 to twenty nine. And candidates are really trying to make 648 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,400 sure that voters know, hey, you can still vote in 649 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,039 this special and it's going to get even messier, right, 650 00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:07,199 because there's like sixteen candidates, it's you know, almost certainly 651 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:10,079 going to go to a runoff. That runoff will happen 652 00:35:10,199 --> 00:35:12,679 in January or February, and that's going to run right 653 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,639 into early voting for the March primary under the new lines, 654 00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:18,840 where Congressman Al Green, who right now is in the 655 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,000 neighboring ninth got moved into the eighteenth under the new map, 656 00:35:22,039 --> 00:35:23,920 has heavily hinted he's going to end up running in 657 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,280 that primary. So this could end up being someone describes 658 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,559 to me as a hell of a door prize where 659 00:35:28,599 --> 00:35:31,719 somebody you know has been running for months takes office 660 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,119 and let's say February, and then immediately have to decide 661 00:35:34,159 --> 00:35:36,400 if they want to run in a primary against one 662 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,639 of the most well known Democrats in Houston or sort 663 00:35:40,639 --> 00:35:42,519 of bow out, and then that seed could end up 664 00:35:42,559 --> 00:35:45,920 having another, you know, pretty old representative. So there's just 665 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,960 a lot of dynamics at play here age redistricting. 666 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,280 Speaker 3: That's that's going to be a storyline for months in Houston. 667 00:35:54,159 --> 00:35:56,679 Speaker 1: I will say I was sort of cheered by your 668 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,679 the detail in your story about how like the candidates 669 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,800 were saying like they keep confronting people or like meeting 670 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,000 voters who are having to confront the issue of Like 671 00:36:04,079 --> 00:36:06,360 the voters are like, well, didn't the lines get redrawn? 672 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,360 Am I even in this district? How do I vote? 673 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:08,679 Speaker 2: All this? 674 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,800 Speaker 1: And it's like, well, people really know about redistricting, they 675 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,679 have really been paying attention. Doesn't help in this race. 676 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,920 I feel sorry for those candidates, but man, the word 677 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,480 is out about for all. 678 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,159 Speaker 5: I think a ton of awareness about redistricting from what 679 00:36:22,199 --> 00:36:23,480 I can tell from the candidates, and. 680 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,840 Speaker 3: Like people very much know, Like, oh, but I don't. 681 00:36:25,639 --> 00:36:27,800 Speaker 5: Live in eighteen anymore, And the candid's like, no, but 682 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,239 you still do for the purposes of this election and 683 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,559 probably a runoff, you know, It's Yeah, it's really confusing 684 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,440 for people there, especially because you know, for many of them, 685 00:36:37,679 --> 00:36:41,079 they haven't had right a representative for months. They might 686 00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:42,800 have been kind of tuned out of this entirely. A 687 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,480 lot of people don't even know that the special is 688 00:36:44,519 --> 00:36:44,920 going on. 689 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:50,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, for all of our you know, perhaps not for 690 00:36:50,639 --> 00:36:53,039 all of our I think correctly estimating how much voters 691 00:36:53,039 --> 00:36:55,079 pay attention to any of this, it appears that at 692 00:36:55,159 --> 00:36:57,480 least in the eighteenth Congressional District, where they are getting 693 00:36:57,559 --> 00:37:01,519 sort of pulled around by the powers that be. They 694 00:37:01,559 --> 00:37:03,519 at least are very very attentive to what's going on. 695 00:37:03,679 --> 00:37:06,440 Speaker 2: We should just have like a we should record ourselves 696 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,280 saying like, but most voters actually don't know or care, 697 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,760 and we can just like have a soundboard in the 698 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:12,360 podcast and. 699 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, yeah, we should start and end everything. That's 700 00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,400 a ceremonial. Yeah exactly, well right, I mean, that is 701 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,360 like such a complicated little corner of politics right now. 702 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,000 But obviously we'll be watching to see what happens with that, 703 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,639 and then the real race is on the you know, 704 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,840 for the the main primaries in twenty twenty six, which 705 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:38,960 will be March third, the day in between my birthday 706 00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,440 and Alejandra Serrano's birthday. So a big week for the 707 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,480 politics team. 708 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,360 Speaker 2: Press of the voters don't care about. 709 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:49,079 Speaker 1: Voters don't care, that is for sure. Well, thank you 710 00:37:49,079 --> 00:37:51,440 guys so much for joining us. Chad, thanks for calling 711 00:37:51,519 --> 00:37:55,280 in from Lubbock, and Gabby from DC. That is it 712 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,679 for this week's episode of the trib Cast. You can 713 00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:01,119 find us on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. 714 00:38:01,199 --> 00:38:04,039 Our producers are Rob and Chris, and we will see 715 00:38:04,079 --> 00:38:05,079 you next week.