1 00:00:17,199 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: And we are back with another edition of the Federalist 2 00:00:20,039 --> 00:00:23,640 Radio Hour. I'm Matt Kittle, Senior Elections correspondent at the 3 00:00:23,679 --> 00:00:28,719 Federalist and your experience Shirpa on today's quest for Knowledge. 4 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,800 As always, you can email the show at radio at 5 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:36,600 the Federalist dot com, follow us on x at FDR LST, 6 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,320 make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcast, and 7 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,960 of course to the premium version of our website as well. 8 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,960 Our guest today is Stephanie Baker. She joins us to 9 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:52,679 discuss her new fascinating book, Punishing Putin Inside the Global 10 00:00:52,759 --> 00:00:57,079 Economic War to bring down Russia. Stephanie is a senior 11 00:00:57,119 --> 00:01:01,320 writer Bloomberg BusinessWeek Investigations and we're so happy to have 12 00:01:01,359 --> 00:01:04,719 her on this edition of the Federalist Radio Hour. 13 00:01:04,799 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 2: Welcome, thanks for having me. 14 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:13,719 Speaker 1: Absolutely a fascinating look at extraordinary events going on. I 15 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,200 want to get into how you kind of set the 16 00:01:18,239 --> 00:01:23,159 tone for all of this, and it really does look 17 00:01:23,239 --> 00:01:26,680 at the disparity that is going on for every day 18 00:01:26,799 --> 00:01:32,239 Russians and what the oligarchs are experiencing. Obviously two different 19 00:01:32,359 --> 00:01:36,239 sets of experiences, and it all opens with the day 20 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,439 in February when Russia decided it was going to invade 21 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:47,120 Ukraine and the massive amounts of wealth exhibited in a 22 00:01:47,159 --> 00:01:52,560 particular super yacht that was in the Caribbean. And when 23 00:01:52,599 --> 00:01:57,799 all of this happened, when aggressions began in February of 24 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:03,760 twenty twenty two, there was this unprecedented effort, I think 25 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:09,199 that's the correct word, unprecedented. But the United States European 26 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,599 governments banded together and said this cannot be. We're not 27 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,599 going to allow this to happen. We're going to check 28 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,000 the resources and wealth of Vladimir Putin in Russia and 29 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,520 his oligarchs, and we're going to start by seizing the 30 00:02:23,599 --> 00:02:32,599 super yachts, massive amounts of materialistic prizes out in places 31 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,280 like the Caribbean. And it's an interesting way to open 32 00:02:35,439 --> 00:02:41,120 into what really is going on in how we're fighting 33 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:46,599 this war, this shadow war in Russia. 34 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: Right, So I did decide to open it with the 35 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,159 saga of this super yacht A because it's very colorful 36 00:02:54,960 --> 00:03:00,759 and it was one of the highest profile acts that 37 00:03:01,719 --> 00:03:06,599 the US Justice Departments newly formed Klepto Capture Task Force 38 00:03:06,759 --> 00:03:11,919 took in the in the weeks and months following the 39 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,360 full scale invasion. Now, the rest of the book goes 40 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:20,199 into far more consequential economic sanctions against Russia, hitting their 41 00:03:20,199 --> 00:03:25,120 oil revenues and their import of Western technology. But you 42 00:03:25,159 --> 00:03:29,039 know the symbolic nature of going after some of the 43 00:03:29,159 --> 00:03:35,280 assets of sanctioned Russian billionaires as a way of signaling 44 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,199 this is a new era. These sanctions are now going 45 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,360 to be enforced and we're no longer going to be 46 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,639 turning a blind diet. I thought that was a fascinating chase. Now. 47 00:03:44,719 --> 00:03:48,560 I think there was a belief amongst some in the 48 00:03:48,599 --> 00:03:52,879 find An administration that this is one way of exposing 49 00:03:52,919 --> 00:03:57,439 to the Russians that they were getting ripped off, uh 50 00:03:57,879 --> 00:04:01,840 by exposing the amount of wealth corruption that was happening 51 00:04:01,879 --> 00:04:04,400 at the very top. Now, I think that was very 52 00:04:04,439 --> 00:04:07,560 hard for that message to get through because Brutin has 53 00:04:07,599 --> 00:04:11,039 this iron clad grip on the media and the information 54 00:04:11,199 --> 00:04:15,919 narrative in Russia. But it's something that the late Russian 55 00:04:15,919 --> 00:04:18,800 opposition activists Alexey Navoni has done with a lot of 56 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,279 his investigations exposing the sort of corruption and the mansions, 57 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:26,360 et cetera. But I also saw it as potentially a 58 00:04:26,519 --> 00:04:30,519 route for forfeiting some of these Russian so called oligarch 59 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:35,000 assets for use in Ukraine. Now that has proven to 60 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,839 be more difficult than some people expected at the beginning, 61 00:04:38,959 --> 00:04:41,959 because these are all going through the US courts. They're 62 00:04:41,959 --> 00:04:46,680 going through a US legal process where everyone has their 63 00:04:46,759 --> 00:04:49,480 day in court and is allowed to challenge. And in 64 00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:54,519 this case, a Russian billionaire has come forward to say, no, 65 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,439 that yacht, Actually that's my yachts, that doesn't belong to 66 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,120 that sanction Russian billionaire, and I'm going to fight this 67 00:05:01,199 --> 00:05:04,040 tooth and nail. And they've been at it for two 68 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,360 and a half years now, and it's just a really 69 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:11,240 fascinating case because it gets at, you know, the opulence 70 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:16,519 and the elaborate and showy wealth that Russians have become 71 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,160 so famous for. But it also shows the degree of 72 00:05:20,199 --> 00:05:24,439 difficulty that the US is having and going after some 73 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,079 of these sanction of Asian cases because of the way 74 00:05:28,639 --> 00:05:31,879 the Russians have structured their assets the holding of their assets. 75 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:36,399 And so unfortunately, I think that the hope for you know, 76 00:05:37,199 --> 00:05:41,240 hundreds of millions of Russian oligarch forfeited assets for Ukraine 77 00:05:41,319 --> 00:05:44,319 has not materialized. They've only managed to forfeit a very 78 00:05:44,319 --> 00:05:47,720 small amount of money. And this super yacht case is 79 00:05:47,759 --> 00:05:50,800 a test case because it actually it's costing the US 80 00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:54,000 government money. They seized it, as I detail in my book, 81 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,879 they seized it in Fiji, they sailed it to San Diego, 82 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:04,199 but while it's under US seizure warrant, the US government 83 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,399 has to pay for it. So they want to They 84 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,519 want to get this one off their books as quickly 85 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:11,160 as possible. 86 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:16,399 Speaker 1: I would imagine. Yeah, it is a fascinating way to 87 00:06:16,439 --> 00:06:20,040 open this for me because I think it is as 88 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,800 kind of as you explained, it is the Biden Harris 89 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,079 administration way of, you know, going about things. It certainly 90 00:06:28,439 --> 00:06:33,120 fits into their agenda on how they view the world 91 00:06:33,199 --> 00:06:39,959 and how they view international politics, how they view foreign relations, 92 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:45,879 and how they view allies and enemies in an ever 93 00:06:46,079 --> 00:06:51,560 changing world. And I think to a great degree that 94 00:06:51,639 --> 00:06:56,399 has been problematic for this administration and this effort to 95 00:06:56,759 --> 00:07:00,839 combat Vladimir Putin. Would you agree disagree? 96 00:07:01,759 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 2: My overall take is that the economic sanctions and the 97 00:07:07,079 --> 00:07:10,600 economic war that was pursued after the full scale invasion 98 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:15,439 was both unprecedented in scope. I mean, the number of designations, 99 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:21,639 the number of people and companies targeted was enormous. Russia 100 00:07:22,279 --> 00:07:26,000 is the largest economy ever targeted by such a broad 101 00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:32,000 sanctions coalition, but that the rollout of some of these 102 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,040 measures was too slow. Now I've said this before that 103 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,279 I viewed this as a kind of a grand experiment. 104 00:07:38,839 --> 00:07:42,040 Because Russia was such a large economy, because it was 105 00:07:42,079 --> 00:07:46,600 such a large oil exporter, it presented unique challenges. But 106 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:52,360 that when confronted with a nuclear power invading its neighbor, 107 00:07:54,199 --> 00:07:57,879 no one wanted to go to war with Russia, So 108 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,759 that shifted the response into the economic sphere in ways 109 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,360 that had never been tested before. And that's why I 110 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:08,360 thought it was an important book to write to kind 111 00:08:08,399 --> 00:08:13,079 of explore what the thinking was, you know, how it unraveled, 112 00:08:14,759 --> 00:08:18,040 and I think they learned as they went on. But 113 00:08:18,639 --> 00:08:21,800 I think that the greatest takeaway I have is that 114 00:08:23,839 --> 00:08:28,680 we weren't prepared to incur the costs required to truly 115 00:08:28,759 --> 00:08:32,480 isolate Russia economically and bleed putin of the resources to 116 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:36,320 wage this war. And that has been the fundamental limiting 117 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:40,360 factor I think on the effectiveness of sanctions. 118 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: Well, we're nearly coming up on three years into this experiment. 119 00:08:46,519 --> 00:08:49,879 As you put it, Council on Foreign Relations, I think 120 00:08:49,919 --> 00:08:53,879 conservatively lists one hundred and seventy five billion dollars in 121 00:08:54,039 --> 00:08:58,759 US aid. To date, those figures are changing, and I 122 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,320 believe in need of updating, State Department says more than 123 00:09:02,399 --> 00:09:08,000 sixty four point one billion dollars has been allocated in 124 00:09:08,399 --> 00:09:14,879 US military assistance. Do you believe these numbers are Where 125 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,120 do the cost actually stand to date? 126 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 2: I think those are pretty accurate figures right. Europe has 127 00:09:23,159 --> 00:09:30,559 also provided both financial and military aid in similar numbers, 128 00:09:30,639 --> 00:09:36,840 if even slightly more. But the economic war was designed 129 00:09:36,919 --> 00:09:40,399 to work in tandem with the military aid to Ukraine, 130 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,879 but in many ways they followed the same trajectory, which 131 00:09:44,919 --> 00:09:47,159 is that both were rolled out too slowly to make 132 00:09:47,159 --> 00:09:51,320 a difference. That some of the things that were provided 133 00:09:51,799 --> 00:09:55,480 to Ukraine in terms of military assistance late in the 134 00:09:55,519 --> 00:09:58,200 game would have made had a bigger impact if they 135 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:03,159 were provided early on F sixteen fighter jets for instance. Similarly, 136 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,519 with the Economic War, I think if they had rolled 137 00:10:05,519 --> 00:10:09,200 out some of the measures earlier and enforced them properly, 138 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,799 that Russia would be in a worse position than it 139 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:18,480 is today. But look, sanctions are viewed as a low 140 00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:22,919 cost tool. You know that they occupy the place between 141 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:30,000 diplomacy and an outright kinetic war, and in some ways 142 00:10:30,039 --> 00:10:33,759 that's true. I think that the most costly form of 143 00:10:33,799 --> 00:10:37,399 sanctions would be against Russia's oil revenues, and that's where 144 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,200 they've been I think the weakest in terms of enforcement. 145 00:10:40,279 --> 00:10:45,279 I think oil remains the key to undermining Russia's ability 146 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:46,120 to sustain the war. 147 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: You see similar arguments being made in places like Iran, 148 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,799 and yet we have, you know, an Israel that has 149 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:01,799 been restrained on that front, mainly by the currentministration, with 150 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:07,200 concerns about what that would ultimately cost. And certainly politics 151 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,440 play a role in this, and I guess that's the 152 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:16,399 big question. You talk about unprecedented experimentation in going after 153 00:11:17,759 --> 00:11:22,559 what at one time the eleventh largest economy in the world, 154 00:11:23,399 --> 00:11:27,879 and trying to do so with an economy that also 155 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:32,919 features nuclear weaponry. It's a thin ice position, but how 156 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,200 much is politics playing a role in all of this policy. 157 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 2: I think politics did play a role obviously. I mean, 158 00:11:40,879 --> 00:11:43,320 one of the things they needed to do is one 159 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,600 of the things I think the Biden administration was particularly 160 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:50,759 concerned about was high gasoline prices, for instance, and I 161 00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:57,720 think that was really a prominent political factor in all 162 00:11:57,799 --> 00:12:00,519 of this, that they didn't want to take any actions 163 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,320 that would cause prices to go up. In the United States, 164 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,879 we were coming out of the pandemic, we were suffering 165 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,159 inflation due to supply chain constraints, and I think that 166 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:19,399 was why you saw the Biden administration proposed this wonky 167 00:12:20,039 --> 00:12:26,600 out of the box proposal to cap Russia's oil prices, 168 00:12:26,759 --> 00:12:32,240 where they would deny Western services to oil sold above 169 00:12:32,279 --> 00:12:35,039 sixty dollars a barrel. Now, this was primarily in response 170 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,879 to a proposed EU embargo that had the Biden administration 171 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,360 panicking that it would cause Russia to withhold oil from 172 00:12:42,399 --> 00:12:45,840 global markets, which would in turn cause prices despite right 173 00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:51,159 before the crucial midterm elections in twenty twenty two. So 174 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,519 that was a policy that I think was very politicized 175 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,240 in terms of its design. It did work for a 176 00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:02,080 few months, It did drive down Russia's revenues, but because 177 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:06,799 it wasn't properly enforced, Russia was able to assemble this 178 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:11,639 shadow fleet of oil tankers operating outside of Western markets, 179 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,759 and it found new buyers. It shipped its oil to India, 180 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,240 who which went from importing almost no Russian oil before 181 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:25,399 the full scale invasion to importing almost forty percent of 182 00:13:25,399 --> 00:13:28,200 its oil from Russia. So that was something that took 183 00:13:28,279 --> 00:13:30,399 I think policymakers by surprise. 184 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't doubt that at all, And so you 185 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,919 know that was to be a driving factor it did 186 00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:41,559 not materialize, so kind of as a candidatt before, how 187 00:13:41,639 --> 00:13:45,279 much are the Russian people paying for all of this? 188 00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:49,559 The oligarchs aren't paying for it, how much is Russia 189 00:13:49,639 --> 00:13:53,000 paying for it? We know that the casualty list are 190 00:13:53,039 --> 00:13:58,639 immense in both Russia and Ukraine. What's the ultimate cost there? 191 00:13:58,759 --> 00:14:01,120 And does that mean anything to Vladimir Putin? 192 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 2: Right? So you mentioned the casualty figures which are just staggering. 193 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:12,679 By the latest estimates UK Intel, UK US Intelligence, it's 194 00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:18,240 roughly six hundred and fifty thousand killed and wounded, and 195 00:14:18,279 --> 00:14:22,840 I mean that is of a level that makes the 196 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:29,559 Soviet War in Afghanistan pale in comparison. So the cost 197 00:14:29,679 --> 00:14:33,399 I think there has been enormous, But because of the 198 00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:37,679 grip on political discourse that Putin has, there's been very 199 00:14:37,679 --> 00:14:42,840 little discussion or upheaval as a result of that. Surprisingly, 200 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,559 and I think it's partly because he's been paying out 201 00:14:45,639 --> 00:14:50,879 death benefits to soldiers who died on the battlefield in Ukraine. 202 00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:56,600 That are enormous keeping people happy through high payments. At 203 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,879 this point, the Russians have suffered from the economic war. 204 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,679 The Russians have suffered from high inflation, and that is 205 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,320 I think the real sign of the sanctions finally beginning 206 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:12,440 to bite in Russia. The inflation in Russia is about 207 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,679 nine percent. The central Bank had to hike interest rates 208 00:15:15,679 --> 00:15:20,960 to a record twenty one percent just last week. And 209 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,120 that's partly because of sanctions, which are causing imports to 210 00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:28,240 be more expensive. It's partly because of Putin's record spending 211 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,799 on defense and security that is just pumping money into 212 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,000 the economy, and it's partly because there's a labor shortage. 213 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,759 There was a brain drain immediately after the full scale invasion. 214 00:15:39,799 --> 00:15:41,679 A lot of people just left the country because they 215 00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:44,120 didn't want any part of it. So almost a million 216 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,120 people roughly, we don't know the exact number left, So 217 00:15:47,519 --> 00:15:52,120 a brain drain of epic proportions, coupled with the losses 218 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,120 on the battlefield and Putin's efforts to staff up these 219 00:15:56,159 --> 00:16:00,000 defense factories, that Russia is facing this acute labor shortage, 220 00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:01,919 and that is one of the reasons why you see 221 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,639 him turning to North Korea where we've got these reports 222 00:16:05,679 --> 00:16:11,000 of North Korean troops joining the battle in Kirsk, this 223 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,879 region in Russia that borders Ukraine, where Ukrainians have launched 224 00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:20,440 this incursion and occupy about three hundred square miles. 225 00:16:20,639 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: That's problematic to say the least, at least the optics are. 226 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:31,320 I think about Korea in nineteen fifty and nineteen fifty 227 00:16:31,399 --> 00:16:37,279 one when you had this so called peace operation going on, 228 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:41,759 and then ultimately you got communists China involved. And believe me, 229 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,759 I understand North Korea is not communist China, but it 230 00:16:45,799 --> 00:16:52,960 does set up the tone, along with Putin's threats about 231 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,200 potential nuclear engagement, all of those sorts of things, that 232 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:04,559 this is really being operated on a very very fine line. 233 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:09,960 That seems like this policy, this experiment that you mentioned 234 00:17:10,279 --> 00:17:11,799 could snap at any time. 235 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 2: Well, Putin has basically escalated dramatically by involving North Korea 236 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,519 and deciding to completely ignore sanctions on North Korea, which 237 00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:26,200 Russia was following diligently until March of this year when 238 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:32,279 it refused to renew the panel of experts monitoring North 239 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:38,079 Korea's compliance. So this is Putin turning to his neighbor 240 00:17:38,319 --> 00:17:42,839 to help him out, and you have this alliance of 241 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,079 sanctioned countries. But I think it's a sign of his 242 00:17:46,319 --> 00:17:52,920 desperation and that he's been trying to position Russia as 243 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,640 stronger than it really is. And you know, if it's snaps, 244 00:17:57,759 --> 00:17:59,480 I'm not sure what you mean by snaps. It could 245 00:17:59,559 --> 00:18:04,440 snap in a way that Russia could be could be 246 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:09,920 facing a real crisis, financial crisis as a result of 247 00:18:10,039 --> 00:18:12,519 both the spending on the war as well as the 248 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,880 after effects of sanctions in various ways. You already see 249 00:18:17,559 --> 00:18:22,000 what's happening in Russia right now is a mini payments crisis. 250 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,640 That the threat of sanctions that was rolled out in 251 00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:31,160 December by the Biden administration to impose sanctions on foreign 252 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:36,720 financial institutions that do business with sanctioned Russian entities, particularly 253 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,240 in the military industrial complex. That threat was widened in June, 254 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:45,000 and that caused Chinese banks to step back because they 255 00:18:45,039 --> 00:18:48,119 don't want to get sanctioned by the US. The amount 256 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,160 of trade they're doing with Russia is relatively small, and 257 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,240 so you see payment delays from Chinese banks. You see 258 00:18:55,279 --> 00:18:57,920 the cost of borrowing in Chinese wand shoot up. And 259 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:02,359 that is why this last week Putin host this bricks 260 00:19:02,599 --> 00:19:05,200 forum with all these world leaders coming in, and his 261 00:19:05,519 --> 00:19:08,680 top of his agenda was coming up with a payment 262 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:15,960 platform to get around restrictions on using Swift, this Gmail 263 00:19:16,079 --> 00:19:20,960 system for banks, financial messaging system for banks to transmit payments. 264 00:19:21,839 --> 00:19:23,680 He's got a real problem on his hands, and I 265 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,279 think the response there was that not that many people 266 00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:29,920 were terribly interested. I think that will take a lot 267 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,559 of time and effort to get off the ground. So 268 00:19:33,079 --> 00:19:37,799 I'm not predicting that Russia's on the verge of collapse economically, 269 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,400 but it is very vulnerable to a drop in oil prices. 270 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:45,079 And what you've seen lately is oil prices are now 271 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,000 starting to come down because tensions in the Middle East 272 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,359 have dropped. There's a belief that Iran may not retaliate 273 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,440 against Israel for the air strikes that they launched last week. 274 00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:03,079 As a result, oil prices are coming down, and if 275 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,319 they come down further, that could really destabilize the Russian economy. 276 00:20:08,559 --> 00:20:12,400 The Russian budget depends on oil revenues for roughly at 277 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:17,359 this point a third of its income, so that is 278 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,039 where the pain could really be inflicted on Russia. That 279 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,680 could change Putin's calculus on Ukraine. 280 00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 3: As soon as Trump got elected, liberal cities tightened up. 281 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,119 The Watchdout on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. Every 282 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,920 day Chris helps unpack the connection between politics and the 283 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,599 economy and how it affects your wallet. After Trump, on 284 00:20:39,759 --> 00:20:42,759 Eric Adams stopped giving cash to migrants, a six person 285 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:46,039 household was receiving seventeen hundred dollars a week, while American 286 00:20:46,079 --> 00:20:49,200 families ravaged by hurricanes were receiving a seven hundred and 287 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,640 fifty dollars FEMA. Check whether it's happening in DC or 288 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,599 down on Wall Street, it's affecting you financially. 289 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: Be informed. 290 00:20:54,279 --> 00:20:56,400 Speaker 3: Check out the Watchdot on Wall Street podcast with Chris 291 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,359 Markowski on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. 292 00:21:02,759 --> 00:21:05,799 Speaker 1: Our guest today is Stephanie Baker discussing her new book 293 00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:11,680 Punishing Putin inside the Global Economic War to bring down Russia. 294 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,160 It's an interesting point that you just mentioned, and I 295 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,079 want to delve into that just a bit more. Obviously, 296 00:21:18,599 --> 00:21:25,640 Putin is closely watching, if not somehow trying to be engaged, 297 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:30,119 not to necessarily at the point that everybody thinks so 298 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:35,240 in US elections, But curious what you think about this 299 00:21:35,839 --> 00:21:39,200 noting what you've written about, it would seem to me 300 00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:48,240 that Trump's idea of energy exploration, drilling, expansion of US energy, 301 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:54,200 as was the case during his administration, if that poses 302 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:59,599 a significant threat based on the Achilles Heel that you note, 303 00:22:00,079 --> 00:22:03,839 war of Vladimir Putin and Russia's economy that's oil. 304 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's a good point. I mean, the sooner 305 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,079 the world weans itself off of Russian oil supplies, the 306 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:16,200 easier it will be to undermine his ability to keep 307 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,880 this war going. And you've seen already that the expansion 308 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:27,720 in US production has weakened the power of OPEC plus, 309 00:22:27,759 --> 00:22:34,319 this cartel that Russia joined about a decade ago, because 310 00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:37,319 they don't control as much of global output as they 311 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:43,079 once did. So anything that can loosen the control of 312 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:48,400 OPEK plus by additional production, I think would be a 313 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,880 good step. However, I think what we're looking at is 314 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:57,119 a long term softening and oil demand. We're seeing weakening, 315 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,160 a weakening economy in China, which has been buying a 316 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,720 lot of Russian oil, so that that's putting downward pressure 317 00:23:04,839 --> 00:23:08,599 as well. You know a lot of factors going to 318 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,440 oil prices, So it's not just US policy on you know, 319 00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:16,759 capping Russia's oil oil oil revenues. There's there's a lot 320 00:23:16,799 --> 00:23:21,680 of different factors US production. As you say, China's production 321 00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:25,200 of you know, electronic electric vehicles is going to you know, 322 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,759 soften demand for oil as well. So I think long term, 323 00:23:29,759 --> 00:23:35,119 in particular, Russia is facing a fairly bleak future economically. 324 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:42,279 Speaker 1: I remember distinctly covering many many of the contenders and 325 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:46,640 pretenders for the GOP presidential nomination in Iowa about this 326 00:23:46,759 --> 00:23:53,559 time last year, before the the famous Iowa Caucuses, And 327 00:23:53,599 --> 00:23:57,559 as this parade kept coming through places like des Moine 328 00:23:57,599 --> 00:24:02,000 and Cedar Rapids and Davenport, I would hear from candidates 329 00:24:02,079 --> 00:24:06,039 like Senator Tim Scott or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, 330 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,480 and they seem to be saying similar things. You know, 331 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,960 at the very least, what we're doing in Ukraine and 332 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,400 what we have to keep doing against Russia is deplete 333 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:24,160 Russia's ability to make broader war. You know, Tim Scott, 334 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:28,000 I remember telling me that, you know, the idea here 335 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,920 is to invest to equip Ukraine so that we continue 336 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,599 to go after, you know, the war making machine of Russia. 337 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:42,519 Has the United States been successful in doing that? Over 338 00:24:42,559 --> 00:24:45,519 the last two and a half nearly three years now. 339 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 2: So let's be clear that they obviously the sanctions have 340 00:24:50,519 --> 00:24:54,440 not been enough to turn Putin back or really fundamentally 341 00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:59,200 changes calculus. And that's partly because he doesn't really care 342 00:24:59,279 --> 00:25:01,279 about the health of the Russian economy. I mean, he's 343 00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:04,960 really head of a mafia state. People around him have 344 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:10,039 been enriched. I like to say that the sanctions could 345 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,079 be more effective, but let's be clear here they have 346 00:25:14,279 --> 00:25:19,200 cost Russia hundreds of billions of dollars. The G seven, 347 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:25,039 the group of seven most industrialized nations, froze Russia's roughly 348 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,319 three hundred billion dollars worth of central bank reserves. That 349 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,079 was a huge move. You know, there have been hundreds 350 00:25:33,079 --> 00:25:36,200 of millions of other dollars belonging to you know, Russian 351 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,880 private assets that have been frozen. Think I think Ukraine 352 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,279 would be in a very different place had no action 353 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,640 been taken. And it's hard to prove a counterfaccial, of course, 354 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,599 but I think it's it's important to understand that it 355 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:56,359 has imposed costs. It has made it more difficult, I 356 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,279 think for Russia to import some of the semiconductors that 357 00:26:00,319 --> 00:26:06,279 it needs for producing its precision guided weapons. But it's 358 00:26:06,279 --> 00:26:10,559 been leaky, and that's partly because the sanctions coalition has 359 00:26:10,599 --> 00:26:14,880 not been broad enough. And you see, and I go 360 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,960 into this in the book, that you know Russia and 361 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:23,559 the intelligence agencies have tapped a broad array of these middlemen, 362 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:29,759 these these sort of cutouts who are posing as regular businesses, 363 00:26:30,039 --> 00:26:32,319 either in the US, which is a case I go 364 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,319 into in the book, a couple of US based middlemen 365 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:42,400 operating directly with a Russian intelligence officer to ship restricted 366 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:48,319 technology for use in Russia's defense industry. They've also used 367 00:26:48,319 --> 00:26:52,160 these companies and these show companies in places like Hong 368 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,039 Kong and China to get their hands on goods. Now, 369 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,799 the threat of secondary sanctions on Chinese banks has been 370 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:03,720 I think effective at perhaps slowing that down and making 371 00:27:03,759 --> 00:27:06,279 it more costly. I think they're paying in some cases 372 00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:10,200 as much as twice as much. But it hasn't been 373 00:27:10,319 --> 00:27:14,039 enough to really grind Putin's war machine to a halt. 374 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,079 And I think that's part of the problem with this 375 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,920 economic war, that it takes time to build up pressure, 376 00:27:21,279 --> 00:27:25,519 and unfortunately Ukraine doesn't have a lot of time, and 377 00:27:25,799 --> 00:27:28,880 we don't know when that sort of turning point will 378 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,680 be so I think there are other measures that could 379 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,359 be taken to really bleed putin of the money he 380 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,400 needs to keep this going, in particular really going after 381 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,400 Russian oil revenues, blacklisting more of his shadow fleet, reducing 382 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,319 the price cap from sixty dollars a barrel to at 383 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,640 least fifty, if not lower, and sanctioning more people that 384 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,480 are buying oil from these, you know, from Russia in 385 00:27:57,599 --> 00:27:59,720 violation of the price gap. 386 00:28:00,559 --> 00:28:02,759 Speaker 1: That is a central question to all of this, and 387 00:28:02,839 --> 00:28:06,680 that question is a matter of time and timing. How 388 00:28:06,759 --> 00:28:11,039 much time does Ukraine have? And I think it's important 389 00:28:11,039 --> 00:28:14,680 to note that as well, with the amount of US 390 00:28:14,799 --> 00:28:18,960 resources involved in this and the fatigue clearly the polling 391 00:28:19,039 --> 00:28:27,240 shows that Americans have in funding this particular expansive war effort. 392 00:28:27,519 --> 00:28:33,319 How much time does Ukraine have to resist Russia? How 393 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,480 much time does it have to resist the American people 394 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,079 and the will to aid Ukraine? 395 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,799 Speaker 2: Right, So, one of the things I also go into 396 00:28:44,839 --> 00:28:47,359 in my book, and I try to tell it in 397 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,599 a very accessible style through people who are exploring this idea, 398 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,039 which was why don't we go the next step from 399 00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:58,440 just seizing this three hundred billion dollar pot of money 400 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:03,480 that belonged to Russia Central Bank, go from freezing it 401 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,160 actually confiscating it and using it for Ukraine. Why should 402 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:13,359 Western taxpayers be paying for Ukraine when most lawyers agree 403 00:29:13,519 --> 00:29:16,920 that Russia has a legal obligation to pay war reparations 404 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,440 to Ukraine. It invaded the country and brought enormous destruction 405 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,559 in violation of the UN Charter. Why not just take 406 00:29:25,599 --> 00:29:28,359 that money. We know that that money is never going 407 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,640 back to Russia unless Russia agrees to pay war reparations. 408 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,359 So why wait until there's some political change in Moscow 409 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,799 that and that might never come. Why not use that 410 00:29:38,839 --> 00:29:41,720 pot of money because it could actually make a difference 411 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,480 to whether or not Ukraine can win the war and 412 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,880 withstand the Russian pressure. Now if it's made available now. 413 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,759 I go into this in the book that Putin made 414 00:29:51,759 --> 00:29:54,680 this strategic calculation that there could be a threat of 415 00:29:54,759 --> 00:29:58,759 US sanctions. He reduced Russia's holdings of US dollars, increased 416 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,079 his holdings of U. So when they came to freezing 417 00:30:02,119 --> 00:30:04,640 that pot of money, most of it was actually in Europe, 418 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,759 and Europe indeed was too divided, has been too divided 419 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,200 to act and go the next step to actually confiscate 420 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,079 the money. So what they did was they came up 421 00:30:14,079 --> 00:30:18,279 with this fix, this kind of financial engineering solution to 422 00:30:18,519 --> 00:30:23,640 use the interest payments on that money to leverage a loan, 423 00:30:23,799 --> 00:30:27,000 a fifty billion dollars bone for Ukraine. Now that took 424 00:30:27,119 --> 00:30:31,240 six months they finally agreed it. That should make a difference. 425 00:30:31,839 --> 00:30:35,480 But ultimately I think as this drags on, I think 426 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:41,119 they'll be increasing pressure to use that principle, that pot 427 00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:44,640 of money for Ukraine, because you know, you're right, I 428 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,240 think there is a degree of tiring in the West 429 00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:52,000 of You know, why should taxpayers continue to pay when 430 00:30:52,039 --> 00:30:54,559 there's this lot of money that we know Russia is 431 00:30:54,559 --> 00:30:59,359 going to have to pay them anyway. And let's be clear, 432 00:30:59,559 --> 00:31:04,480 Russia's been waging a war to destroy the Ukrainian nation, 433 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:10,640 the Ukrainian economy, destroying its power generation capacity, it's ability 434 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,839 basically to keep the lights on. So making that money 435 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,480 available to Ukraine could make a difference. And unfortunately, I 436 00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:21,160 do worry that if they come to that decision, it 437 00:31:21,279 --> 00:31:25,200 might come too late. For the moment, I think the 438 00:31:25,279 --> 00:31:28,000 loan will tie them over and maybe there'll be a 439 00:31:28,119 --> 00:31:31,400 change of heart as things as the political situation in 440 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:32,839 the US changes who knows. 441 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I mean, you take a look at what 442 00:31:36,519 --> 00:31:38,400 has been happening over the last two and a half 443 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,839 years in this country, and there are a lot of 444 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:47,960 Americans who view Ukraine as certainly an imperfect ally certainly 445 00:31:48,799 --> 00:31:53,119 not one where I think the majority of Americans want 446 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:58,279 to risk a full scale hot war with Russia for 447 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:02,240 involving NATO and uk and those sorts of things. And 448 00:32:02,319 --> 00:32:05,599 you also have some of the things happening in Ukraine 449 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:11,440 that we're talking about fighting for freedom in Western Europe 450 00:32:12,359 --> 00:32:17,400 in the world, and yet you have a country in 451 00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:22,440 Ukraine that has exhibited no small share of corruption and 452 00:32:22,759 --> 00:32:28,160 the polluting of the kind of values that America says 453 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,079 it wants to import. How do you deal with those 454 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:37,759 kinds of perception issues and real problems going on in 455 00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:42,200 this war for Ukraine. 456 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: Well, you're absolutely right that there was rampant corruption in 457 00:32:45,799 --> 00:32:51,640 Ukraine prior to the full scale invasion, and I think 458 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:57,079 the war really kind of unified the country in a 459 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:01,960 dramatic way. And I think getting Ukraine on the path 460 00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:06,039 to possible EU membership has forced them to clean up 461 00:33:06,079 --> 00:33:08,200 their act. Now. I'm not saying that there is no 462 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,359 corruption still in Ukraine. I think there has been there's 463 00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:15,359 been in particular around military recruitment. That's been one of 464 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,079 the worst areas of corruption we've seen since the war, 465 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,440 of basically paying bribes to not have to serve on 466 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,759 the front line, and that has been a big problem. 467 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,839 But I think I've been traveling to Ukraine since nineteen 468 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,200 ninety eight when I was a young I started out 469 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,599 as a young reporter in Russia and Eastern Europe, and 470 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,000 I made my first trip to Ukraine in nineteen ninety 471 00:33:37,039 --> 00:33:41,640 eight and went there a ton during between twenty seventeen 472 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,759 and twenty nineteen, and went back in June of this year, 473 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,960 and I just thought it was such a different place. 474 00:33:48,039 --> 00:33:50,839 It had a different feel to it completely. It felt 475 00:33:51,039 --> 00:33:55,559 much more European facing, much more pro Western and in fact, 476 00:33:55,559 --> 00:33:57,960 when I was there, it kind of reminded me of 477 00:33:58,319 --> 00:34:04,319 how I was greeted as an American in Prague right 478 00:34:04,359 --> 00:34:08,239 after the end of the Cold War, that everyone loved 479 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,079 meeting an American. And I think there's huge amount of 480 00:34:12,079 --> 00:34:16,079 gratitude in Ukraine, you know, for the US support that's 481 00:34:16,079 --> 00:34:20,239 been provided, and you know, I think it's I think 482 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,639 it's changed Ukraine in many respects for the better. Let's 483 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:29,320 be clear that the alternative, a Russian takeover will just 484 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:35,360 mean that Russian corruption will subsume Ukraine. And you know 485 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,360 that's not in anyone's interest. 486 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,559 Speaker 1: So what is the path forward as as you see it? 487 00:34:41,599 --> 00:34:43,760 I mean, we we've touched upon this, some of the 488 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,719 things that as you as you've researched this, what has 489 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:53,880 hurt Russia, what has done nothing to Russia's war efforts? 490 00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:59,440 I think about Nixon in Vietnam, and I think about 491 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:05,480 this turn of phrase, peace with honor for Ukraine? Is 492 00:35:05,639 --> 00:35:13,480 Ukraine even considering that Vladimir Zulenski and his regime, Are 493 00:35:13,519 --> 00:35:18,760 they even considering the notion right now of some kind 494 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:23,440 of a settlement, because certainly it would seem the will 495 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:31,760 of the GOP presidential candidate is to reach some immediate 496 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:38,679 settlement which could drastically alter how things are being conducted 497 00:35:39,039 --> 00:35:43,519 US policy in Ukraine. 498 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And look, I think the sort of 499 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:54,719 the current policy of giving Ukraine just enough not to 500 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,400 lose but not enough to win has not been very successful. 501 00:36:00,119 --> 00:36:04,039 Zelensky obviously has outlined what he calls his victory plan, 502 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:09,000 which is essentially a combination of a massive step up 503 00:36:09,119 --> 00:36:15,800 in the sanctions campaign against Russia, along with the ability 504 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:21,239 to use Western missiles long range Western missiles against Russian 505 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:26,920 military targets to put Russia in a weekend position should 506 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,960 there be any talks, And so far he hasn't gotten that. 507 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,280 I mean, there's more to his plan. He hasn't. We 508 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,239 don't all have the details of what he's outlined. 509 00:36:38,559 --> 00:36:40,000 Speaker 1: I worry. 510 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 2: I mean, if Trump takes over and we have to 511 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,079 go off of what he's said he'll do, which is 512 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,679 and the war in a day by getting Putin on 513 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,039 the phone, getting Lensky on the phone, and just working 514 00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:59,079 at a deal that risks ceding territory to Russia, which 515 00:36:59,639 --> 00:37:05,079 I think will be used by Putin as a necessary 516 00:37:05,119 --> 00:37:08,199 breathing room that he wants to regroup and rearm. Because 517 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,320 I don't think Putin has changed his overall goals of 518 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,719 taking Kiev. I think that's what he still wants to do, 519 00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,920 whether or not he puts that on the back burner 520 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,199 for a number of months or a year or two. 521 00:37:21,519 --> 00:37:24,239 I think we have to recognize that his goals have 522 00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,519 not changed, and the only way to put Ukrainian at 523 00:37:27,519 --> 00:37:31,679 strong enough position to do a deal and try to 524 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,000 end this war is to really put the Russians on 525 00:37:35,039 --> 00:37:38,480 the back foot. Now, I think it's possible that Trump 526 00:37:38,519 --> 00:37:42,360 could do this, right, I'm not saying that there could 527 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:46,159 be another version of this where he tries to get 528 00:37:46,199 --> 00:37:48,880 Putin to sign up to this deal, Putin doesn't want 529 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:53,679 to do it, and Trump, you know, really dramatically steps 530 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:58,679 up the economic war against Russia. That's perfectly possible because 531 00:37:58,679 --> 00:38:02,679 I think the way he's talking about it, he's making 532 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,920 it sound like it would be pretty easy to get 533 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,400 Putin to stop. And I'm not so sure that's the case. 534 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 1: It just seems endless under both circumstances. I mean, I'm 535 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,119 in two Americans who are already feeling the fatigue of this. 536 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:22,239 What you mentioned I think is very well taken. You know, 537 00:38:22,639 --> 00:38:27,079 it could be a matter of ending the war. Ukraine 538 00:38:27,199 --> 00:38:30,880 is going to have to give up something. Putin rests 539 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:36,119 for a while, and then within a certain period of 540 00:38:36,159 --> 00:38:40,639 time it's Russia back in, going after Kiev, going after 541 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:46,159 the rest of Ukraine, or you know, it's sending in 542 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:52,800 billions upon billions of dollars more in this never ending battle. Again, 543 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,800 I do understand Ukraine has only so much time, but 544 00:38:58,599 --> 00:39:02,480 you know, what is ultimately that time, what are the 545 00:39:02,599 --> 00:39:09,320 overall costs for US taxpayers and for global security? And 546 00:39:10,199 --> 00:39:12,920 I guess what I'm ultimately saying is both scenarios seem 547 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:13,679 pretty bleak. 548 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:20,320 Speaker 2: I agree that it is bleak, but let's look at 549 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:25,880 the situation from this perspective that for relatively small amount 550 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:33,159 of money, the Ukrainian Army has destroyed huge sways of 551 00:39:33,199 --> 00:39:40,079 the Russian army and defense stockpiles. I mean, US military 552 00:39:40,119 --> 00:39:46,079 spending is really geared towards Russia and China, and I 553 00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:48,559 think in many ways it's been a cost effective move. 554 00:39:48,599 --> 00:39:53,079 Speaker 4: It's both taught the US lessons about how modern warfare 555 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,960 is being fought. It is revealed the inside and inner 556 00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:02,280 workings of Russian weaponry that we didn't know before. It 557 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,800 is exposed the weakness of our defense industrial complex in 558 00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,159 the United States that needs to be really stepped up, 559 00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:16,800 and has allowed our US stockpiles to be replenished with newstock. 560 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,920 So there have been positives. I wouldn't say this is 561 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:25,360 a complete one way street. It has created jobs in 562 00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:29,360 the United States, and I would stress that I think 563 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:33,719 Beijing is looking very carefully at what is happening in Ukraine, 564 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,320 and I think if if Russia is perceived to win 565 00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,800 and Ukraine is perceived to lose, I think it would 566 00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:47,559 embold in China to go after Taiwan, and I think 567 00:40:47,599 --> 00:40:52,400 they're assessing the costs of doing so looking at the 568 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:57,880 sanctions campaign against Russia. But I do think, much like 569 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,639 the way Putin looked at the Asters withdrawal from Afghanistan 570 00:41:03,039 --> 00:41:06,039 as a sort of signal to go ahead, that the 571 00:41:06,119 --> 00:41:07,159 US would be too weak. 572 00:41:07,079 --> 00:41:12,159 Speaker 2: To respond, I think a US withdrawal of support ta 573 00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,199 Kiev would be a real signal to China. 574 00:41:16,519 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating book. It's an interesting look 575 00:41:19,559 --> 00:41:24,159 into where we have been, where we presently are, and 576 00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:27,679 where it all suggests we are going. The book punishing 577 00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:33,039 Putin inside the global economic war to bring down Russia. 578 00:41:33,519 --> 00:41:36,320 I want to thank our guest today for joining us, 579 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:40,639 Stephanie Baker, on this edition of the Federalist Radio r 580 00:41:40,679 --> 00:41:41,920 Thank you for your time. 581 00:41:42,679 --> 00:41:43,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. It was great. 582 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,519 Speaker 1: Absolutely you have been listening to another edition of the 583 00:41:47,519 --> 00:41:51,480 Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Matt Kittle, senior correspondent at the Federalist. 584 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,639 We'll be back soon with more. Until then, stay lovers 585 00:41:55,639 --> 00:41:58,199 of freedom and anxious for the Fray. 586 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:06,199 Speaker 2: Untain, Man Pump count say, pointing to Adob Many Pulis 587 00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:11,840 Speaker 1: And they check the Man Pump tab platinum in the