Speaker 1: Welcome to Wager Talk Today, the gold standard of sports
betting shows, where we talked the talk and walk the walk.
It's Thursday powerhouse show.
Speaker 2: For all you.
Speaker 1: Johnny the Greek is gonna lead off with the Steam Report.
Joanniary put a lout on Joe's plate, Falcons, Buccaneers, Thursday
Night Football. He's gonna break down Iowa Iowa State in
college basketball, and we're gonna break down the Celtics and
the Bucks. Dan and I are gonna do WTF or LFG.
We have a good all around the world all props
for Thursday Night football and the same game parlay. We've
only got four NBA games. I'll touch on a little
bit of an NBA a little bit later on. So
thank you very much for joining us. Let's get it started,
by the way, shout out to Drew Martin. Drew Martin
came on this show and said Liberty is gonna lose
by twenty and they did not lose by twenty. They
lost by forty. An insanely good call on the blowout.
Like Dan it was. It was one of the best
breakdowns we've ever had on this show. I mean, no
sweat whatsoever. The line was thirteen. He's like online twenty
but like just I mean absolutely blasted it.
Speaker 3: So you and you know from from college basketball, like
it's not something that you know our team caps regularly,
but there was a stretch where we were doing women's
college basketball and some of these numbers, they just get
insane in college basketball, and a lot of the times you.
Speaker 2: Just you let the line lead the way.
Speaker 3: You're not like, they're not gonna win by twenty points,
yet they win by forty points. Andy, That's that's early season,
mid season college basketball for you, baby.
Speaker 1: And I was so yeah, I was so happy for him.
So all right, let's bring on, Yachnie. We're getting started
right off the back with college football. What's up, Yannie?
Speaker 4: Real quick? Ohl Canadian Hockey North Say Battalion minus one fifty.
I'm only giving it out on the show here all
because one customer bitch, and I didn't like it. It
rubbed me the wrong way. I've been given out these
Ohl plays that have been nothing but money. Bro these
handball like all this extra stuff that has been such money.
Like if I give it out at plus nine and
a half, if it goes to four and a half,
it doesn't matter because that dog wins by forty seven
points or the spread doesn't matter. But for some reason,
this gentleman had to write over and over and over
and over how sick he is that he's not getting
the line. So you know what, that's fine. No, I'll
just bet them myself. I'll just keep them to myself,
or if they happen to come on wage to talk today,
because it's not my fault if you have one out.
I explained it over and over to subscribers again and again.
If you want to bet these off market stuff, you
need a ton of books that are off screen. If
your only ability is to bet at DraftKings FanDuel Caesar's,
ignore this email because you're not getting down. Brother, I'm
sorry to break it to you. We're smashing those markets.
So there's people is subscribers that could use it. Just
because you can't doesn't mean you got a flood customer
service and piss the girls off, who then piss me
off and take an hour out of my day to
where I could be handicapping winners for my subscribers. Instead,
I have to fuck with my head because I have
crazy OCD and a little little comment like that is
going to ruin my entire week. So if I lose
over the next three days, it's your fault. Bro, it's
your fault. You're ruined this perfect mindset I was. I
was running so hot, and you had the bitch you
couldn't get plus one and a half when everybody else could. Sorry,
I had to get that off. Now I'm bad.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 4: I'm sharing like gold. I'm sharing gold and you got
the nerve to take ten minutes to email that he's given.
Oh that that's a stale number? Like what am I
trying to increase my results by three freaking units? Are you?
Are you crazy? Bro? Like I'm trying to slide one
past use. I'm trying to help you by give you information.
If you can't use it, you can't use it. Someone
else can. But that's the dude that like tattle tales. Yeah,
I don't get you.
Speaker 3: Know, he's the guy who said He's the guy who says, teacher,
you didn't collect my homework.
Speaker 2: Yeah, rest yeah, you know what I mean. And I'm
sitting in the back like I didn't do my homework.
Speaker 1: Why we got to bring this up?
Speaker 3: But it's so funny because Andy he brings up you know, Hey,
I got an OHL play and I saw you and
I both did the same thing. I went down to
my phone to see can I get down on OHL?
Andy looks over at his screening, like, din, I get
down so one more time?
Speaker 2: What wasn't in case? But before we before?
Speaker 4: Yes, it was North Bay Battalion, North Bay Battalion on
the money line, they're good up the one seventy five
or you could play half a goal.
Speaker 2: I'm in minus one fifty for me. I'm in let's go.
Speaker 4: Great right, great price.
Speaker 2: There we go. Well, this is Andy.
Speaker 3: We missed VR on the show for two days and
he comes with Fire out the Gate.
Speaker 2: We love it with VR is on fire.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, Dan, it's it's the Steam Report. There's
steam finally, And Yanni, Yanni, you are talking to people
who handicap darts and lacrosse. We've gotten those. I can
imagine what we've got em before, and we can't put
them out. That's that's that's a big, big problem. Like
one person complaints, Okay, we can't do this anymore.
Speaker 4: All rights, Like yesterday, I swear not to like rub
it in, but I got like five more props that
ended up going three to one and one, and you
just miss them like you know what I mean? And
then I would just put them on the steam sheet.
I give a billion things on the steam sheet. You
just saved it for having to take another twenty minutes
to cutting and paste and grow. Thank you.
Speaker 1: All right, Well I feel your anger. We have had
this conversation behind closed doors. Let's all right, let's talk
college football. There's nothing better than salty SEC guy. Uh
And there was a salty SEC guy in the comments
section who one of the most passive, aggressive shade comments
I have seen in a while. So this is right
up your alley. Oni, Can you guys talk about college
football power index rankings and how in Ohio State the
second and third defense but forty fifth and forty six
strength of schedule. Basically, his thing is he's doing the
whole thing about the SEC plays a tougher schedule, they
beat each other up and YadA, YadA, YadA. So go
over your power ranking. To me, this sounds like an
argument from before nil and that's what it sounds like.
Speaker 4: You know, go ahead, finish. I'm sorry I was to say.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like ten fifteen years ago, I feel like this
was a solid argument. Yeah, the SEC just had all
the good players and you know, all the good coaches.
I just don't feel like that's the case anymore. The
entire landscape has changed. So this brings up the difference
between the college rankings and the power rankings for what
we bet.
Speaker 4: So let's go over that, and here's what I'm going
to say. In college football, the power ratings that I
use have produced over one hundred and twenty plus one
hundred and thirty units of profit, a sample size of
close to what four hundred bets, and a win percentage
of over fifty eight, which is incredible for that kind
of sample size. I've been profitable in college football year
over year using power ratings more or less alone and
my read of the market because the matter ratings that
I get come from a kid I grew up with.
That is, when it comes to math, the smartest person
I've ever met in my life and doesn't gamble, doesn't
use them to profit, just simply takes the data that
I told them is pertinent, puts them together and spit
me out a number. The kid has no opinion, could
care less, probably couldn't name five players on any team.
So that's why I trust his numbers more than anything else.
And here's what I could tell you. Ohio State and
Indiana are the best two teams in the country. Okay,
even after my adjustment going into bed on it yesterday,
I was sure Indiana was now the number one team
power rating wise. I was even mistaken as my man
set me the updates, and Ohio State is still the
highest power rated team in the country. If they were
to play Indiana, and Indiana was favored by them, because again,
the book's job is to balance risk, it's not to
predict the outcome of sporting events, so they wouldn't make
Ohio State a favorite after everyone just saw Indiana beat
them and the line was close anyway. But what would
happen is Indiana would become maybe a pick of minus
one what have you. Public would probably bet Indiana and
the sharps would just take the value on Ohio State.
That's how that would play out. But power rating wise,
Ohio State's still about one and a half points better
on a neutral than Indiana. Now, as far as the
SEC goes power rating wise, one team's only in the
top five. That's Georgia. And still my power ratings would
make the notre Dame team which has it made it
into the layoffs. Notre Dame would still be a two
and a half point favorite over that Georgia team on
a neutral field. It would be a favorite over Alabama
on a neutral field. They would be a favorite over
Mississippi on a neutral field.
Speaker 2: They would be a.
Speaker 4: Favorite over Texas Tech on a neutral field. Yes, Notre
Dame would be favored over all of those teams on
a neutral field. In fact, only against Oregon is it
a pick on. The only two teams that would be
favored for sure over Notre Dame or neutral power rating
wise is Ohio State and Indiana. Otherwise Notre Dames. That's strong,
kind of like you know, Penn State. Everyone forgot about them.
The teams when I'm looking at the college rankings that
are overvalued Number one Texas A and M. They have
Texas A and M as the seventh best team in
the country. I've moved Texas A and M up as much,
which is I can in the power ratings, and that
kill still can't have them break my top fifteen. They don't.
They just don't, bro And the reason is simple. They
barely have a top twenty five offense, barely have a
top ten defense, they have a respectable strength of schedule,
but there's just so many teams that are above them.
That's the truth. Another team Oklahoma, Oklahoma's overvalued. They're you know,
a top ten team in the rankings. They don't make
my top power ratings, they don't make my top fifteen
power ratings. In fact, they're right on the CUSP. And
again that's just numbers, that's just the data. And as
far as again the SEC schedule wise, dude, Indiana has
had a top twenty strength of schedule. Their schedule is
comparable to Georgia's, comparable to Oregons, comparable to Penn States.
They've had a very tough strength of schedule. Ohio State hasn't.
They've had, you know, fifth type of strength of schedule
like Notre Dame, like Notre Dame. And that's why with
Notre Dame again, that's the negative on Notre Dame. Their
strength of schedule hasn't been the toughest. So their stats
should be as impressive as they are. Number one offensively
efficiency wise, you know, just out of the top five
on the defensive side of the ball. But when I
look at a team like Indiana, dude. Their top three offense,
their top three defense, and they have a top twenty
strength of schedule Georgia top five defense, but their offense
is out of the top ten. Alabama top ten defense,
offense out of the top ten. The most balanced teams
are Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Notre Dame. Those are balanced.
The other teams it's either heavy on offense, heavy on defense,
but those are the most balanced teams. I'm sorry I
went off on a ramp, but just sharing the data
that I haven't front.
Speaker 1: Of me, No, it makes sense. It's the difference between
rankings for bowl games and such a rankings for making money.
It's a huge difference. It's a massive, massive difference. So
you know the ones that follow the rankings that the
College Football Committee puts out, use those as your power rankings.
Speaker 4: That's like Miami, are you kidding me? Miami tenth, Miami tenth.
Like Penn State would be a field goal favorite over
then Penn State. Who's what six and six? Six and six?
I would lay a field goal with Penn State against Miami.
Speaker 3: That's saying something, Andy, that's saying something, I'm gone too
well for Penn State this year.
Speaker 4: No, it isn't it isn't it has?
Speaker 1: I have friends that think Penn State nailed their coaching position,
so they're very high able to State moving forward, we'll see.
Speaker 4: So think I'm a Penn State fan. I was actually
a Hurricanes fan when I was growing up. It was
you know, Convicts versus Catholics. That was the back then,
Notre Dame and Miami. I was so into Miami back then,
testa Birdie, those worth the years that quarterback at the
quarterback after quarterback.
Speaker 2: It does always crack.
Speaker 3: Me up when people conflate like Philadelphia fans with Penn
State fans, Like you understand how far you have to
drive to get to Happy Valley from Philly. Ain't no
yeah from Hilly taking the time to drive up Happy Valley.
I can tell you that much. Unless they want to
get their car destroyed by some white tailed deer.
Speaker 2: That's the only way they're making that.
Speaker 1: Let's do the rest of the steam report, Yannie. I
know you got a busy day, and then I want
to get some UFC for the people. So steam report,
let's go with football and then we can move to
college basketball.
Speaker 2: Perfect.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna hit you off off the steam sheet. Most
of the football has been in the steam Sheet since
Monday and Tuesday, so I'm sure the numbers are gone.
But let me give you some of the college football.
I won't give it all because there's a lot in there,
but they late two or four Delaware plus three and
a half, two seven Memphis plus six plus five and
a half. They took two ninety seven Miami plus four
and a half. They two nineteenth Central Michigan plus twelve
and a half, two twenty three Florida International plus nine
and a half, and a favorite for you, two thirty
two BYU minus three and three and a half in
the NFL. Oh a lot of value there too. Steam
sheets got a lot of good stuff. Four fifty six
Excuston minus six and a half and seven and a
half Chicago for sixty two. I know I've been hard
on Chicago off late wise guys took them minus six
and a half, and seven they took Buffalo plus two
and a half all the way down to pick them.
I'll give you two more because there's a lot. Four
seventy three Green Bay minus one and one and a
half they got there for me last week. And oh,
Minnesota Vikings another one that got there for us. They
took the seven and a half, took the key number
seven and six and a half on Minnesota. So there's
some NFL and some college football NBA for you. Signed
in the total, I'll give you five eighty New Ordlands
plus five, then five seventy five under two twenty five
Boston and Milwaukee two college basketball for you, we'll go
with six seventy two. I you Indiana plus two all
the way down to pick them, and then six point
eighty one North Dakota State minus five and a half.
So that's some of the sharper stuff today. Again, big
big couple of days ahead, big couple of weeks ahead,
with all the college football and NFL settling out the
playoffs picture, let's.
Speaker 1: Move to UFC real quick, last event of the year,
And Yanni and I were talking about this right before
the show. So we're gonna pick a day and we'll
do kind of a UFC overview about how our years went.
What we're seeing because Yanny and I each did not
have our best year, and I think a lot has
changed and Yannie's a lot is getting ready to change
with UFC, as you know, you see, they're like basically
done with Fight.
Speaker 4: Pass, I know, and I have a podcast on there
and I don't even know where it's going. My my,
I know my contract got extended two years, thank you, UFCA.
I don't know what that's for you on the line.
I don't know what's going on with the Fight Pass
and all. So as soon as I get any information,
I'll let you guys know. But I don't even know.
Speaker 1: LFA doesn't have any events scheduled like, because nobody knows
where they're gonna. So anyway, all right, let's do some
let's get some betting info. We'll start with the main event,
cop Reval Cops a huge favorite. Can you make the
case for Revolve No?
Speaker 4: And here's why he's been in a lot of wars
of late, even when he's lost. I touched on that
with Moreno of last week, and that's why I was
real heavy on Tai Era because I thought Moreno, even
though he's young in age at thirty two, he's had
gone through a lot of wars. In fact, his last
like five or six fights all had gone the distance,
all were like five rounds, and four of them had
been like Fight of the Knights, and he split went
like two to two and one, So even when he
lost for one, they were wars. And that's what I
see with Roy Bomb over his last four fights. You're
looking at decision decision, decision decision. Three of those four
went five rounds. Two of those four were fight the Knights, dude,
that takes a toll on you, and here comes Manel
Cop with a ton of power, excellent takedown defense. I
don't think Roybald is going to be able to do
anything as far as grappling goes, and I think CoP's
going to start to systematically break him down. I like
the over in three and a half a little bit
because blindly going over three and a half and four
and a half has been you know, plus ev long term.
But I worry CoP's going to get him out of there.
I really do. I like Manel Cop in this spot.
I think he wins. I wouldn't be surprised inside the distance.
I know it's chalky, but the market tells you everything
you need to know, because I do think Rory Bomb
money will come in from recreational betters getting them at
plus three to one, kind of like you saw with Moreno,
kind of like you saw even with Yon on Saturday
but I don't think it's warranted. I like the cops side.
Speaker 1: Sexy underdog pick of the week that everyone we need
a name for this one where the public dog, where
everybody thinks they're really smart by picking this underdog is
Caesar Almeida this week?
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh my gosh, yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah fight Olk's brother.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 1: I'm running the other direction. I'll take the favorite. I
just see too many people on Almeida and not enough
line movement to make me feel good. All the Sycheck's
training with fighting nerds, I madea can't wrestle. Check's got
big time power more than anything. Give me the under
in that fight.
Speaker 4: Well, and that's why I did this my podcast yesterday
and I talked about asked Nick about that line move
and he said it was correct. Like Olex say Check
should be the favorite. They made a mistake when they
brought Almeida out as the favorite. And he is the
brother of you know, Michael Alex Alex say Check. He's
got that type of knockout power and yeah, he thought
he should be the rifle favorite also, And that's one
of those sharp dogs and squared dogs. Kelly says Dad
that I don't like either. I think a lot. Are
gonna be taking Almeida, who's only lost is by split
decisions to Kopolov, and he's coming off a performance bonus
and now getting plus money against a debut fighter who's
only fought a few minutes in the Contender series. Yeah,
I'm what thirty six seconds? I'm with you, Bro, I'm
with you. I think the market's telling me. Just like
with Cop that'll say Check's the right side.
Speaker 1: I like cost over Cherrier. I'm done betting on Cherrier.
I have lost too much money and I've made that
was my side.
Speaker 4: I like him too, and now he cost me Bro.
He's inconsistent, he's on paper, he's so good.
Speaker 1: And he sucks. I'll tell you I love Bobby Green
because by King Green. I love him over Lance Gibson.
This Lance Gibson. He's a wrestler that's not very good
at wrestling. That's not a good recipe for a good
guy who can strike. I like King Green, and then
I actually like the underdog Thompson coming in against Brito.
I do Brito makes too many mistakes. He's just bonehead man.
He's violent. He can finish you, but he could also
put himself in terrible positions. Thompson twenty three years old.
He's athletic, he's got the cardio, good, good wrestler. He
came off a really nice performance against the guy who
tried to take him down a million times and he
stuffed all of them. So anything else you like on.
Speaker 4: This garden, no man to be honest with you, like,
I'm still kind of working on and actually doing my
notes today that I have to turn into the UFC.
I turned in some betting notes to them and just
off other than comp and then against Kosta because I thought,
like again, like Shari, like you said, but I'm starting
to see the coast this theme come in, which is
worries some and nothing really jumped out. I like Pat
over Fry, I did, like you less love that one, Pratt,
but now that line's gotten away from me. He's almost
two to one favorite. So I yeah, not much as
stuck out so far. But like I said, it's a
little bit early, and I've been coming off really good
UFC this last month, So not going to force anything,
just going to what I confirm and then look to
a good twenty twenty six where we should progress towards
demean Because I had a horrific twenty twenty five. In MMA,
I tell you when I win, and I tell you
when I lose. And after you know, five straight winning
years in MMA, I got destroyed in twenty twenty five, demolished.
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about that. But I know
you got an appoint me to get to extended steam report.
Thank you very much. Tell everyone what you have up
at wager Tug.
Speaker 4: Thank you, brother. There's a lot up there. I got
the Thursday night football package up that passes availuable. I
have the Saturday College football that's going to be all
four percent plays in there, Sunday NFL with a five
percent big move. And also that UFC cards up well,
I think two four percents already. So running hot over
seventy seven units in the last seven days, number one,
last three, number one, last seven, number one, last thirty days.
Stay consistent, though those start jumping up your bet size again.
Maintaining that kind of win percentage is mathematically possible. No
one's gonna hit seven out of ten bets consistently, Not me,
not anyone. So stay consistent with bet size. We'll keep
grinding out of profit. Thank you, brother, and best of
luck to everybody this weekend.
Speaker 1: Johnie the Greek gonna be a part of football Friday tomorrow.
Thank you very much. Johanni, have a good Thursday. We're
gonna bring on Joe Ranieri. In just a second, quick recap.
We did hit our NBA Best Bet last night. Thank
you very much to everybody that was on. We had.
We had Marcus Smart over four and a half points
and he ended with twenty six. Got on fire late,
so easy cash in that one. A couple of you
have brought up darts. I'll talk about darts after Joe
is in. Those plays that you got out, those are
futures for the full tournament. The meat of the plays
is the daily so don't panic. I'll explain that afterwards.
We have our Monday Night, our Monday Night, we have
our Thursday night Football best Bet that is up twenty
four and thirteen run on primetime plays this season. We
also have an NBA Best Bet that is up, and
we do have that darts package that is still up
fifty nine dollars to get all of our darts plays.
There's some futures that have been released and the big
plays though, we're gonna be those daily matchups and parlays
and props that we have, so I'll explain that after Joe.
But we running really hot twenty one units in December.
We're calling this the sprint to the end of twenty
twenty five. It's been a hillacious November, a really really
good start to December. So we look to continue that.
All those plays can be found at WT do Buzz,
slash al go get that Monday night or that Thursday
Night football play. I'm gonnattach the NBA Best Bet to that.
That's what I'll do. Thursday Night Football best Bet, you
get a bonus NBA prop. I just decided that. So
let's rock tonight and have a big Thursday. All right,
let's bring in Jue Joe for a little bit. I
thought I was like, man, Joe and I just got
done talk about LSU, and now we get to talk
about Michigan. And then it got really dark, and I'm
not really sure that this is a situation to poke
a whole lot of fun of I will just say
my Ohio State friends are having just a really really
grand old time this morning. The memes are just all
over the place. What do you do if you're Michigan
right now?
Speaker 5: Real quick cry that's what you gotta do here. But
I love me say you this to Andy. And here's
the question I have. Number One, there is an upside here,
like we get to watch maybe the best dressed college
football coach in the history of the game now take
over in an interim basis, there is a fifth Poggy
is now your interim head coach, and nobody dresses better
than that man. But let me ask you, if Michigan
thought Searan Moore was that valuable and that good a coach,
do we are we even learning about this right now?
And I'm wondering is this even a situation where they
do an investigation, because it's not like Michigan to hide crap.
Speaker 2: It's not like, what are you talking about video?
Speaker 5: I'm just saying, if they really thought he was a
great coach, like he was harpball worthy, I'm not sure
we hear about any of this at all.
Speaker 2: If we're being.
Speaker 1: Honest, it's pretty bad. It's it's pretty bad.
Speaker 2: But especially it.
Speaker 5: Got worse after he knew he was caught, Like after
he knew it was coming out is where it really
started to go off the rails.
Speaker 2: If but the only.
Speaker 5: Reason he knew he was gonna get caught is because
Michigan's like, well, he sucks, and we don't have to
worry about paying him because we can fire him with cause,
so we're good to go. And that's kind of what
they did, is pulled the hammer on him and didn't
realize there might be some collateral damage after that.
Speaker 3: Well, and Andy to to Joe's point two, since since
Jim Harbaugh arrived there in ann Arbor, eleven staffers either
arrested or fired sport to violation, just.
Speaker 1: Say details details. I will tell you this a little
Bernie told me a week ago that the Michigan coach
was going to be out. I didn't even pay any
attention to it. They knew this. They knew about this
for a while, so.
Speaker 2: I don't see how you don't.
Speaker 3: Part of the story was that he got Planned B
door dashed to his office, like like, that's rule one
of Plan.
Speaker 2: B, you go out and acquire it yourself.
Speaker 1: That's playing c on how to get planned ban A
cannot be door dashing to you.
Speaker 2: I wonder is Lane Kiffin available? I don't know how
does this work? Now for Michigan? Where do you go?
I meant, get a phone call like, how does this work?
Speaker 1: Exactly what Michigan he's misunderstood understood?
Speaker 5: I agree, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Joe, Well let's talk let's talk some sports here,
Let's talk some let's talk some lines of betable info.
We got the Falcons and the Buccaneers. I mean, this
Falcons quarterback situation is almost as bad as the Colts
may be worse. Like my, how the Mighty have fallen?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 1: You got Tampa Bay minus five. They're getting basically all
their wide receivers back just in time for the run.
But Tampa Bay has not been that good recently. Minus
five is the line here that kind of tells us
the books are totally sure what to do here over
under forty four, what's your breakdown on this game?
Speaker 5: Well, I just did the Best Betting Show with Art,
and Art's like, man, there ain't nobody playing this game,
Like they have zero interest at the West State right
now for this game because they're kind of in no
man's laying to your point, Andy, four and a half five,
the books are like, all right, any day now, anybody
want to come in make a big bet so we
can push it one way or the other because we
don't know it does look like the total was forty
four and a half.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's starting to come down a little.
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, the schedule maker is when they put
this on the list, probably thought this was going to
be a game Andy that was probably gonna be for
first place in this division, and boy with a wrong,
this is just awful on so many levels here. Yes,
Evans likely back, They're gonna have some of their skill
position guys back, Kaydott and likely still not going. But
what the hell are you gonna get from these guys
in a situation where we haven't seen them forever. I
can't imagine that this Atlanta defense, after getting crushed in
the second half last week. Rahiem Marris is the defensive
minded guy they usually defensively bounce back after getting blown
out in these types of situations, I can't imagine them
allowing you know, Evans and everyone else to run all
over them. So I tend to think that maybe that's
being a little overvalued. Don't forget still missing two starting
guards on that offensive line.
Speaker 2: Christian Wurs is great.
Speaker 5: It's good to have him back, but again, it feels
like the Eagles offensive line where he's one or two
plays away from being back on the side again and
out of the game. So that's what's been happening all
year long. I think both defenses are going to be
the star of this game if we're being honest here, Andy,
Jon Robinson seems to be the only one that can
either catch the ball or run the ball. He's the
you know, he's all about the offense. For Atlanta. It's
clear they don't trust the passing game. I don't know
where the points are coming from really, from either of
these two teams, so I'd be concerned. I like to
think the Bucks are the right side here, Andy, but
the problem is Baker and Todd bulls against this division
at home. The record is atrocious, Andy. I mean, they
have been absolutely awful against the number. So I'm not
exactly running to the window one way or the other
to play it. If I'm looking at it, I'm probably
looking the Atlanta Falcons team total under in this one, Andy.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's wild when the bookmaker like Art says,
nobody's betting this.
Speaker 2: Crazy? Yeah, it'st I mean, look at the number. It's
been four and a.
Speaker 5: Half five and okay, anybody else want to bet this game?
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's a team who's it's a team
whose record is asked, and then it's a team who
what they're fighting for the division against the against the Panthers.
Yet in the last nine games, they're one and eight
in getting out games.
Speaker 2: So they've been eight out gaining eight of their last
nine games.
Speaker 3: It's just it's two teams that, regardless what the record says,
it's tough to find value betting on either side of
this one man.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's not good. It's not And they've been
terrible against their own division.
Speaker 5: First of all, they're all in two I think a
couple of games right against against this Falcons team Tampa
is and not exactly great against the division going back,
so we usually.
Speaker 2: Want to lay.
Speaker 3: You want to lay points with the team that just
lost outright to the same His eight and a half
point favorites, be my guest.
Speaker 2: I'll be betting props. I'll be betting props on firstday night.
That's about it. I did see one prop I'll give up.
Speaker 5: Okay, Kirk Cousins rushing prop is a half a yard.
I'm betting anytime touchdown and give me the if he
falls forward. Andy, we're getting at least half of our bet.
They are at a pretty good agree. Kirk Cousins to
get tackled forward and you got a half a yard.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: I love that forward, Joe.
Speaker 2: Joe.
Speaker 1: The year before he heard his achilles, we were doing
the same game parlay of Kirk Cousins under his rushing
yards and over his rush attempts, because when they'd win,
he'd kneel down and lose yards. We were getting six
to one games, they were favored.
Speaker 3: I love me what it's worth any of the games.
So it's either he doesn't run, he doesn't have a
rush attempt. If he falls forward, like Joe said, any
of the games that he has had an attempt, it's
been two.
Speaker 2: Or more yards. Oh why not flee an ugly ass yep.
Speaker 1: Half a yard? All right, that's what you tune in for.
The kirk Cousins rushing crops.
Speaker 4: Let's go to college basketball.
Speaker 1: Let's go to college basketball. Joe, Iowa, Iowa State, Iowa State.
Bigger favorite here minus ten and a half over under
one forty two. We were talking a little bit earlier
about sometimes early in the season, these bigger favorites are
these big favorites like Dada blowing these teams out because
the books don't quite have a handle on what the
lines really should be. Is this a scenario where you're
looking at Ohio State to be a big winner here
or this little too much respect?
Speaker 5: Well, it's it's fascinating, right because you got the big
ten versus the big twelve here, which it's sometimes confusing
still for people here.
Speaker 2: But Iowa is not bad this year, right? What are they?
Eight and one? I think sitting there? Iowa State nine
in all.
Speaker 5: Both teams, by the way, have covered seven of their
last nine games. After beating I believe Saint John's by
one a couple of weeks ago, Iowa State has just
gone scorched earth on people. I mean, their next four
games they beat teams by eighteen points or more. To
what you know, Yanni's point is is that we're starting
to get, Yeah, we're starting to get all of a sudden,
these numbers creeping up from teams that begin to separate themselves.
Here and listen, that win against Purdue at macki Arena,
the toughest place to get a win in all of
college basketball. That was pretty impressive. They're shooting lights out
from three that they shot fifty eight percent from the
field in that game, forty eight percent from three. They've
beaten Iowa the last two years by nine points or more.
So this this has kind of been a little bit
one sided. But you got a new coach. The fran
McCaffrey days are over here with Iowa. Iowa played its
first road game I think that was what nine days
ago at Michigan State, and they lost by nineteen, mostly
because Andy, Michigan State is a very physical basketball team,
and Iowa got pushed around. They're very good at shooting,
but they're more of a finesse team than they are
a physical team. And if they thought Michigan State was physical,
wait until they get a load of what's gonna happen
here in Iowa State at home. They're gonna get bullied around.
And that's the problem here. I think you've had two
lines of thought. We saw overnight money come in on
Iowa kind of pushing this down from eleven and a
half down to ten ten and a half. It's kind
of where we're sitting right now. But I wouldn't be
shocked Andy if this line starts to creep up by
the time we get to by the time we get
the tip and we go back to eleven eleven and
a half. So my advice is, if you like Iowa State,
grab the ten ten and a half right now, because
this is likely going up before tip. The only fear
is Iowa plays so damn slow. But I don't think
it's gonna make a difference. I think Iowa State's gonna
get whatever they want from a physical standpoint.
Speaker 1: All right, Uh yeah, physicality sometimes just cannot be overcome.
So let's lay the wood there. All right, let's saw
this Celtics Bucks game. Oh Joe, if before the season
I told you one team was the three seed in
the East and one team was the ten seed in
the East, no chance you would say, Well, clearly it's Boston,
it's the three seed, and Milwaukee is the Milwaukee season,
and maybe the foreseeable future has cratered. Now there's Giannis
trade talks, and now uh oh, Jannis has a calf injury.
I don't know what they do. Meanwhile, the Celtics East
is a little bit wide open. They're playing well, this
is a really interesting team. Nine point favorites of the
over under two twenty three and a half. What do
you make in this game tonight.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and two teams going in opposite directions, right, because
you're talking about a Celtics team that's one ten of
their last twelve, and you're talking about a Bucks team
that's lost ten of their last twelve, and there is
a cleared I so wish Giannis was available for this
game because I think this would be what is pretty
much a blast slate tonight. This game would have been
must watch television, I think andy if Jannis was available
to go, but he is busy interviewing with other teams
right now, trying to figure out what uniform he'll be
wearing next. So we're left with a Celtics team that
if I read one more story about Tatum playing one.
Speaker 2: On one with guys and he'll be here before.
Speaker 5: Wouldn't shock me if Tatum is back for a playoff
run at all. But Boston is playing great basketball. The
Bucks aren't. They're one in seven without Gianness this season.
You know they would be right there in contention if
he was actually available, but they're not. So to me,
I think the best way to look at this game
is I think the value is on the over. I
don't want to necessarily lay nine ten points. With Boston,
although I think they win the game. I think we're
getting points here. I think the Celtics are gonna get theirs.
I don't know that they're gonna get a ton of
pushback defensively from the Bucks, and the Bucks know they're
gonna have to score in this game, Andy, if they're
gonna keep it close or give themselves a shot to win.
I don't see a one oh five to one to
oh three game here. I think a lot of the
public perception and the money looks to be on the
under here, dropping it to what to twenty three and
a half to twenty four, I think that's low. I
think the value is looking at this game to go
up and over the total here tonight, let it rain
threes across the board as far as I'm concerned.
Speaker 1: Well, Boston and they will rain three threes. I mean,
I think they they're hitting the most of any team.
I mean, I'm looking at their they could be good
for one. I mean, these totals for Boston are going
into the one thirties and one forties the last five games,
so pretty hard to buck that trend. Great breakdowns. As always, Joe,
what do you have about for everyone? At wait you talk.
Speaker 2: I am a lot Tandy.
Speaker 5: I just the more I kept looking at it, the
more I just go on one of my this is absurd.
So I do have a five percent match bet available
Sunday for the NFL five and zero on those plays
this year, Andy, in the NFL, so they don't come
around off of when they do.
Speaker 2: You know, we see value, we fire on it and
that's it.
Speaker 5: And that's exactly what we have on a game Sunday
that sooner rather than later, guys, because at some point
something tells me this line will be moving before we
get to kick.
Speaker 2: You can hop on board. Go grab that now.
Speaker 5: The weekend Warrior package for all plays is a fantastic
idea as well. But go ahead and grab that five
percent max bet right now in the NFL for Sunday.
Speaker 1: Jure and Eery great breakdown. It's got a five percent
best bet up WT Up Buzz Slash JR. Joe, thank
you very much, appreciate that. All right, Dan, we had
a lot to get to. We got we got DOUBLETF,
we got LFG, We've got props for Thursday night. We
got a same game parlay. Let's do WTF and LFG.
Let's do that, and then that's I.
Speaker 3: Mean, why not this is this has been out the
gate here, We've done two of them.
Speaker 2: We are zero and two. Andy. We lost on a
soccer play. We lost on a Jalen Hurts prop.
Speaker 3: So, Hey, whether you're watching, you know it always it's
LFG or WTF for a reason. WTF means we're fading you, Dan,
LFG goes I'm tailing you.
Speaker 2: So Andy, I know that this might be something that
you're a little intrigued with.
Speaker 3: Joe mentioned all these receivers that are coming back tonight
here for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're gonna have all
the horses back, right, and and Mike Evans he's coming back.
You know, hopefully that makes a Mika buk a little
bit better. One player that I think is getting overlooked
in this big shuffle that is also returning from the
IR is Jalen McMillan. He's gonna get his first action tonight.
And I'm looking at his reception total over because what
does this Bucks team do? They pass out the wazoo
attempts crazy for Baker, whether he's injured, whether he's healthy.
So his over one and a half receptions for Jalen
McMillan is sitting at one and a half, so we're
asking does this guy get two catches? But when he
became a featured player last season, Andy, I think it
was six straight games to end the season two or
more catches.
Speaker 2: Most of those were five catches with seven type targets.
Speaker 3: Now they are a favorite that begs the question will
they pass as much?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 3: Last week in the first half the Falcons, they were
tied with the Seahawks, so the defense was at least
able to keep them in the game until it got
out of the way. You know, four catches, seven targets
last year against the Falcons.
Speaker 2: Do they use him much in his return? That's the question,
you know.
Speaker 3: So I think the targets could be there for Jaln
McMillan simply because there's so many other folks to pay
attention to in this offense that somebody's going to get
open on the play. Sometimes it'll be Mike Evans, sometimes
it'll be a meek big boo to quote to quote
Gronk there. But for me, Andy plus one point fifty,
it's a great sprinkle here over one and a half receptions,
And I know you're attacking Jayleen McMillan a little bit
different of a way. So this might just be your
first WTF of the three plays we've had, Andy.
Speaker 1: I I went with his receiving because I looked at
this hard. I looked at both props really hard. I
opted to go ten and a half because I found
I found an article where they said he's probably gonna
be on a snapcount to now he's practiced six games
in a row. Okay, they say he's gonna play, but
he's gonna be limited. To me, that says he's healthy
enough to play. He's not going to play a ton,
but they are going to get him a few targets.
I would expect two to three targets. So that's why
I went over ten and a half receiving, because.
Speaker 2: Well, he could do that as opposed to asking him
to get two catches.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'll go. You know me, I'm positive I'll
go LFG. Let's go Jaylen McMillan two catches for fifty
teen yards tonight. How about that?
Speaker 2: I like that? That's sexy, Andy. So there you go.
Speaker 3: Comment below after the video is done and let us
know what props go on.
Speaker 2: This is a tough game to bet here tonight. I
really don't have much for the side.
Speaker 3: Don't have much thought on the total unless you're looking
at some team total props maybe, But the play that
I'm playing with my own money, it's already locked in.
Jalen McMillan over one and a half receptions plus one
P fifty w t AF you Phaden or LFG, you
tail and comment below and let us know that's what
we got for today.
Speaker 2: And you gotta get on the board. Gotta get on
the board.
Speaker 1: On board segment.
Speaker 2: When I go to get on the board.
Speaker 3: Andy, I'm not saying, let me play a minus one
eighty just you know, chip shots something again, I'm like, no,
let's get some plus money here, get on the board
and recoup some of those losses.
Speaker 1: I like this, all right, let's do it. Jmask, have
they hit any props for Thursday night football? I'm glad
you asked.
Speaker 2: Let's hear it comes. Maybe you came to the right
right places.
Speaker 1: We're gonna go over three sprinkles and then the same
game parlay, so we'll go over the sprinkles. I have
one best bet that's up tonight that I think stands
out way above the rest. So these are some sprinkles.
I like Kirk Cousins over to over two oh five passing.
This has even come down here a little bit, So
if you want to bet it, just wait. He's he's
gone under in two of his last three starts. But
Tampa's we talk about this Tampa Bay team every week.
They're twenty seventh against the pass, eighth against the run.
They're tough to run against, but you can throw all
over him. The last three games that he's started and
played against Tampa Bay, his lowest passing total is two
hundred and seventy six yards. I know that Drake London
is out. And I know this because Drake London is
on a fantasy team of mine and I have him
and Darnell Mooney and we'll just say Darnal mooneys no
Drake London. But garbage time is gonna count if they're down.
If the game script shows that Tampa's again stopping the rush,
then Kirk Cousins is gonna go over correl eight Bjon
Robinson under seventy four and a half. And it's the
exact same reasoning bucks twenty seventh against pass, eighth against
the rush. He has never go on over against Tampa.
His high is sixty three yards like ten yard eleven
yards less than This total is his high against this
Tampa Bay team. And if you're Tampa, who are you
scared of Kirk Cousins throwing the ball or Bjon running it?
It's Bjeon running it. So I'll take the under on
his rushing. And then we talked about Jayalen McMillan over
ten and a half receiving. He's gonna play limited snaps,
but I think they get him involved. They want to
kind of shake the rust off a little bit. So yeah,
Jaalen McMillan will try and take two catches for fifteen
yards tonight. Let's do a same game parlay here. This
will get you plus money plus one. Twenty six. Will
take Baker to throw one passing touchdown and Cousins to
throw one passing touchdown. Baker gets all of his weapons back.
Surely he throws one. Cousins we talked about the pass defense.
I think he throws one. And then let's take the
Buccaneers team total over twenty three and a half. This
is a Buccaneers defense that is just getting shredded. They've
given up this total. I believe in five out of
the way last six games, So take bucks over their
team total. Nekets your plus one twenty six. Before we
go real quick, So a couple things here for you, Darts.
The darts plays will released those future those are futures. Okay,
those are futures. The tournament starts in like an hour,
so those futures will come off the board. I will
tell you there are two futures that have come off
of my book. So I don't know what happened. Maybe
there's a chance that everyone started playing and they just
came down off of the books. But there's a couple
that I can't get. Don't worry about the futures. If
you can't get them, there's gonna be like thirty five
more plays coming out. The real meat is on the
daily matches that we have. So uh yeah, well, well
well that's what we focus on. We got one play
for today, but then the rest of the players that
are going to be coming out are gonna start tomorrow.
They start early, like seven thirty or eight in the morning,
so make sure you get the plays in tonight. So
all right, Oh so damn, I decided to watch the
first episode of the last season of Stranger Things. I
heard the hype. I love the first season of Stranger Things.
I like the second season of Stranger Things, which is
weird for me because I do not like that genre,
Like I don't like superhero movies. I don't like it's
just yeah yeah. So I watched the first episode and
I said, if I liked the first episode, I'll watch.
But if I if I'm not into it, I'm done.
I'm I'm completely done with Stranger Things. And I'm so in.
They're back, baby, they found their magic. Not only did
I watch the first I watched all of them.
Speaker 2: And I just finished.
Speaker 3: I just finished them last night, Like like you, Wednesday's
a little bit of a slow night for the things
that you and I are betting. So I was like,
you know what, let me get in and I started
one episode and then I was like, holy crap, and
then I.
Speaker 2: Was stuck watching them. Now.
Speaker 3: The thing for me was Andy was I was kind
of like you, so much time has passed, you know,
how is it gonna go? Number One, the production value
is insane. I mean they are all many movies, you
know what I mean. And it actually looks great and
they let it on a great little cliffhanger, and the
next one's come out, I believe on Christmas, which is
gonna be one of the few days that you and
I actually have off here, so we'll have to recoup.
But uh yeah, let us know, folks, it's been a
lot of times since time has passed. Are you in
or out on the strain your things? Because Andy and
I were back, Baby, we're back.
Speaker 1: It was great. It was it was everything I wanted.
And if they win me over, that says a lot, because,
like I said, I I don't understand the superhero movies,
the sci fi a that's but man, they totally got it.
It is pretty funny. It's let's just say some of
the child actors improved and a few of them did not.
There's some rough actings.
Speaker 2: Very fair some of them this will be their final role.
Speaker 1: Let's say, yes, yes, some of some of them got better. Uh,
some of them did not. So, oh, this is a
great one. Titans. Andy already hit over seven, touching his ear,
touching our ears. It's our air pods.
Speaker 3: Oh you're right, yeah, because they slip They fit in there,
but they slip out.
Speaker 1: When you talk a lot. They start to slip out.
So I'm reaching up and I'm touching the AirPod.
Speaker 5: Not my ear.
Speaker 1: I was like, what is he talking about? But yes,
that is what is happening. Uh for that, So all right,
that is gonna do it for us. On this Thursday,
we get a huge show. It's Football Friday tomorrow. It's
gonna be the usual gang Yanni, Teddy, Marco and Dan
and I are gonna do our pick five super contest
best bets. So make sure joy us. We're gonna get us,
get you ready for everything football and all plays can
be found at w T dot buzz slash a l.
We have a huge, huge day and night of bets.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: We got that Thursday night football best Bet. I'm attaching
NBA to that one just because I'm feeling feeling Santa
Clausa tonight. So let's cash big. We're having a great,
great December.
Speaker 2: It's like it's like a it's like a picture signal.
Speaker 5: Andy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's no, no, no, fastball, fastball.
Speaker 1: All right, thank you very much, guys, Let's have a
big day. Hit the like button. Please don't forget to
subscribe to the channel or over a quarter million people,
So if you haven't subscribed and hit that bell. You
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We'll see you again on Football Friday. Luck on your bets.
We'll see you tomorrow. Take care,