Speaker 1: Welcome to Way Did You Talk Today, the gold standard
of sports betting shows where we talked the talk and
walk the walk. Last day before the Super Bowl, we
got a jam packed show. We're gonna talk super Bowl,
of course, we're gonna talk some college basketball and NBA.
Yanni's gonna get it started with the Steam Report. Teddy
is gonna jump in NBA heavy. We're gonna go over
the trades, which ones he liked, which ones he didn't
Likenmarco's gonna jump in and do some college basketball for
us and his Super Bowl sauce slash Food of the Week.
But let's bring in my co host for today. There's
none other. That's Steve Merril. Steve, Welcome, Happy Friday.
Speaker 2: Buffalo chicken dip. That's my favorite. Never get it, really,
I don't know when you said super Bowl food. The
first day it popped in my mind. There's a lot
that I like, but I do like a good buffalo
chicken dip because it's it's tasty, but you get a
lot of protein and it's like, I don't know, it's
a meal, it can be a meal, so I like it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about wings?
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, there we go. That's that's chicken baked.
Speaker 1: Wings, heavily seasoned good sauces.
Speaker 2: It's a good check question. We got to get the
check one on this throughout the show and in the comments,
that's great favorite super Bowl side dish appetizer or least favorite.
I did that for Thanksgiving. I do that my Thanksgiving video.
We always get some good reply favorite or least favorite.
I don't really have a least favorite.
Speaker 1: Like everything, you know the assignment chat favorite, least favorite
super food. So you can do it, all right, we
hit yesterday's WTF LFG. So Steve is all up to you,
my friend. I'm gonna give you my play of the
day and you have to tell me WTF if you
think it's gonna lose LFG, if you think it's gonna
win a little bit obscure, But the obscure ones have
been working today. Brook Lopez over nine and a half points.
Zubax is gone. He's the starting center, and six games
he's played without Zubos in the lineup, he's gotten over
twenty seven minutes. He's average ten point eight points. And
there is no better matchup against centers the Kings. They
give up twenty six points per game to centers, so
bonus is listed as questionable. They've got a back to back.
He may not play tonight no matter what. It's a
terrible game, and these role players have to absorb some
of these stats. Harden has gone, Tubach's gone. That's a
lot of points that some of these guys from the
Clippers are going to have to play. So Brook Lopez
nine and a half points late tonight, Steve, I ask
you WTF.
Speaker 2: Or lfg LFG man. First of all, I've never faigned
the prop expert Andy Lang on a prop. This is
not my neck of the woods, although I do do
a lot with this with the NBA playoffs when I
do my videos. And one thing I liked the two
things I look at Andy, I look at minutes played
and I like to look at field goal attempts, right,
because that's what it comes down to, the more shots
and more chance he had to score. And there's additional
reasons he'll play more tonight, like you just mentioned, But
just looking at his line of work here over the
past few weeks since late January, last three games, twenty
one minutes, twenty minutes or more. In the last three
he'd only done that one in like the previous six
eight points or more and two of the last three.
And then look at his field goal attempts. I'm over there.
In January took like six seven shots at most in
a game. He had seven, eleven and six the last
three games. So more minutes, more field goal attempts, and
there's more reason for him to play tonight. I like it.
Definitely not fading that one.
Speaker 1: LFG LFG. Let's go Colin beer.
Speaker 2: We gotta have two categories, something that actually counts as
a meal. Maybe, Like I said, that's why I like
Buffalo chicken dip, but be a beer for many people
is a meal. It's very filling.
Speaker 1: Seth runs his own beef jerky and sausage company, and
I'm here to tell you it is some of the best.
It's the best beef jerky I've ever had. And you
sent me samples of his his jalapeno cheddar, and it
might be the best sausage.
Speaker 2: Jalpo oh sausage. I think that beef.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, So Seth doesn't screw around when it comes
to wings equals football, yeah, Kso with sausage.
Speaker 2: I like sauage. That's a good call. That's one of
my favorites.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course Lino's bringing Sicilian square of pizza. Absolutely
getting hungry less.
Speaker 2: This might have been a bad idea, Andy Lane. We
got another like forty minutes to go at lunchtime here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and now I'm hungry. Let's bring in Yanni though,
Steve Ball. Let you take it from here. Yanni, Happy Friday?
How are you, sir?
Speaker 2: Don't meet yourself? Young? There he is, he's here. I
thought he was cussing off screen for a second. I
saw the lips move and didn't hear anything. You know,
you got me nervous.
Speaker 3: No, No, I was just saying I just released another
Super Bowl prop this morning, staying real selective, Like, honestly,
we bet probably thirty six thirty seven prompts. But I've
given about ten or eleven of those two subscribers. I
give the ones that I agree with more and the
ones that I don't expect to see any buy back,
meaning they're not set up for middles or really manipulation
and more legit, multiple groups got.
Speaker 4: Down on them.
Speaker 3: And actually today's prop, I'll just I'll tell you now
it was the uh because it was in the box.
Speaker 4: So I'm sure most of the groups are.
Speaker 3: Betting it right now, and that's the Gatorade color.
Speaker 4: Well, and we took plus two ten on what was it?
Speaker 1: Was it?
Speaker 4: Yellow? Green?
Speaker 3: That one the one that he could get the yellow
and the green at plus two ten plus two ten.
Speaker 2: That's awesome, Joannie, because one of the things I do
every year when I'm watching the championship games and I
have an all DVRD in case I miss it, and
I'm sure you do it Andy too, is I go
back and I try to see what color they dump.
And obviously in that Denver game, they did not dump
the fluids, which is probably a smart move when it
was like freezing cold temperatures. And then I did not
see them dump it either in the Seattle game, if
I recall, so, like, I did not get much info
on that, but I would think there's a color that
they both have been using most of the season and
somebody knows that.
Speaker 3: So yeah, well they did release what Pete Carroll did
last time with Seattle. They did like what Belichick with
New England, and they were other colors. But yeah, this one,
like I said, came in this morning and that was
the other than the national anthem prompt, which we bet
we bet that one over. We bet over one twenty
two and a half and one twenty three and a
half seconds in the national anthem, and then as far
as after the game, we bet the Gatorade colors today
yellow lime or green, yellow lime or green at plus
to ten plus two hundred yellow limeer.
Speaker 2: You know what favorite? Was there one that was lower
than that was clear lower than yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think orange might have been orange. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting, that's good stuff because people always ask that's
a non sports betting friend text me yesterday asked we
could find all those props. I was gonna send him
the Westcate booklet that we have Androse wouldn't be in
there because Nevada doesn't have those props, any of the.
Speaker 3: Props that someone would have the outcome prior they don't
allow for.
Speaker 2: Correct Yeah, and there's been a lot of controversy all the.
Speaker 4: Team definitely knows what day to eighth so well.
Speaker 2: And I think the best thing with the national anthem
is if you ever get into that rehearsal right, because
they do rehearse it at some point, and that's where
there's been something aggling in the year's past.
Speaker 3: But yes, that's that's the information that I usually had
banked on. Where someone gets that and you you see
it move. The market moves right away, gets so juiced
up immediately, and then you get a little bit of
buy back. But this this year, I think the reasoning
is that it's a big ensemble he's bringing, Like there's
he's bringing a choir with.
Speaker 2: Them, and that'll that'll drag it out a little bit.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the reasoning exactly, Like you're bringing a choir
to help sing this song, like they're probably going to
drag it out a little bit at least, that's what
I've been hearing behind the scenes.
Speaker 2: For those that are not good at math, I hope
most people watching the show are good at math. You
should be doing this, but that would be like sixty seconds.
That's two minutes and two, two minutes and three. Yeah,
and we'll see what happens. What else are you seeing
as we head into Super Bowl weekend? Here? I mean,
Joe n Airy and I just did bets betting show. Ever,
by the way, that's available this afternoon here on the channel.
Arthur deceased, we took up extra at his time. He
went over a lot of stuff. The Westgates scene, in
your world the other side of the counter, what are
you looking at.
Speaker 3: What's sticking out to me a lot is this one
prop that a lot of betters are talking about, and
that's Kenneth Walker, the third. Everybody's betting the same bets
with him. And here's what they're betting. Okay, they're betting
Kenneth Walker receiving yards over, but they're betting Kenneth Walker
rushing yards under and Kenneth Walker longest rush under. So
let me repeat that again. The sharp prop that is
getting the most wise guy money is Kenneth Walker receiving
yards and Kenneth Walker rushing yards. Now they're betting the opposite.
They're betting the receiving yards over and they're betting the
rushing yards under and the longest rush under.
Speaker 4: Now, the rushing moves got respect by the market.
Speaker 3: The over in receiving yards initially got respect at twenty
and a half. It went to twenty and a half
over as high as minus one seventy five, then went
to twenty one and a half, then went the twenty
two and a half juice to be over. Since then,
we've been seeing it come back and you could still
get twenty and a half today. That is very surprising
to me because I would think that even the recreational
betters bet that one over, like I can see them
betting the Walker rush prop under because of the defense
for New England and how difficult it is.
Speaker 4: To run against that team.
Speaker 3: But the fact that the wise guys are betting all
three of those prompts and the over in receiving yards
isn't getting the respect. Even though I'm seeing a lot
of recreational betters piggybacking. It is surprising. I'm interested to
see how that one turns out.
Speaker 2: And obviously the way the game plays out too. You
got two good pressure defenses, you can get more receptions,
smaller pass plays, not as much yardage or longer plays,
you know, and then maybe that's less running plays. For
the same reason, and we say this all the time,
the way you think the game is going to play
out is how yeah going to handicap the prop market
as well. You know, if you have a preferred side
or total preferred way, the games can play out high scoring,
low scoring, you know, so it all plays apart. Johanny,
I want to ask you this because I asked Arthur
Decisior this I'm gonna do my favor the public video
this afternoon for this weekend. I think obviously Seattle is
looking like the public, so I wouldn't say it's a
public play like it would be regular season, but the
public seems have been leaning towards the Seahawks. My general
non betting friends here on the East Coast too, it's
kind of interesting they've all been like Seattle, Seattle. I've
been hearing that all week and that is not something
I factor into my public data, but it is like
an intrinsic factor, if that which makes any sense and total.
I feel there's a little bit of love to the
under more than you maybe you would see from the
public in general, because they're two good defenses. I mean,
I'll ask you this Andy too, you know later on
the show maybe when we talk. Is I'm trying to
come up some public info for the props though, And
like Arda and I have talked about, you know us
money safety plus money overtime like the big payoff lottery
ticket ones. And by the way I pulled all that up,
it's like a five percent chance game goes to overtime,
seven percent chance a game has a safety. Actually, I
was surprised it was hired to have a safety that's
like minus thirteen fifty. I think the Westgate has minus
fourteen hundred plus eight hundred. The press said last week
that it's a great bet to play the no because
that's the square side. It's really not a great bet
either way because it's right in the middle. Probably, But Jeanny,
I'll ask you, like, what is something that's like a
square public prop bet this year or every year that
I can tell the viewers to kind of stay away
from other than the will there be a safety where
there be an overtime. Those are two that job out
to me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they always bet that that they'll be a safety,
there'll be an overtime. They bet the yes on the
defensive touchdown. They like that on special teams or defensive touchdown.
Yes usually gets money, but I think that might be juiced.
The other prompt that I see get a lot of
the public money on the yes. It is again they
like the big plus money, so they'll go that there'll
be a missed extra point, that one the overtime bet
that there'll be an overtime, that the game will land
exactly three.
Speaker 4: They'll bet that one.
Speaker 3: Those are some of the square props because they want
that they're seeing that plus money, but they're never getting
the true plus money that you should be getting, just
like you know with the touchdown props that that's a
popular one and most of the players, I mean, the
odds just get so ridiculous when it gets down to
the super Bowl because they know what the betters want
to bet. They want to bet the over, they want
to bet that these wild, crazy, improbable things actually do
happen in a super Bowl, and they usually don't because
it's just like any other game. It's a sixty minute
football game, so it's not like because it's a super Bowl,
those crazier things are going to happen. If they don't
happen on a normal Sunday afternoon game, they're probably not
going to happen on a super Bowl.
Speaker 4: They're the exact same two teams.
Speaker 3: They have the same game plans, they approach the game
the same way they have over the entire season. The
only difference is that you don't get to play again
next week, so you may throw everything at them, but
that doesn't mean you're going to miss an extra point
or the game's going to go into overtime because of
that or props like those.
Speaker 4: Again, I like to be on the.
Speaker 3: Side of the contrarian, and I have no problem laying
heavy juice. If I'm confident then I'm still getting the
best of it. I'll lay minus four hundred comfortably if
I think the true odds are eighty five percent.
Speaker 4: I don't care.
Speaker 3: I'll sell something to lay minus four hundred if I'm
sure it should be eighty five ninety percent implied probability.
And that's the opposite of how recreational betters approach it.
They look at value as plus money. They see value
as dogs. They don't see it as the difference between
the price and true implied win probability. Like trying to
explain to a casual better that there could be value
on a minus twelve hundred favorite is very hard to do.
Speaker 4: They'll look at you like your nuts.
Speaker 3: But that's why the hold is so high on Super
Bowls because recreational betters and novice betters on sophisticated betters
no disrespect.
Speaker 4: But I do this every day. This is my job.
Speaker 3: I do this seven days a week, three sixty five
for thirty plus years, so I respect this market. I
know how difficult it is to bet to be I
don't look at it as gambling, but on Sunday, ninety
nine percent of people betting this game are approaching it
like they're just gambling. And if you're gambling, you don't
care about the odds being against you. You're hoping to
get lucky. You're hoping to be the product of good
luck on Sunday that you are lucky. And with char
we look at it different. What's the price? What should
the real line be? Is there different? I'm betting it
if there's not on the next one. And uh again,
we talk about it every Super Bowl. But that's the difference.
Kind of like the Kentucky Derby. Everyone's talking about that
that that Derby race and betting Derby race, but the
values in the race is leading up the undercar Yeah
drops exactly, kind of like the props with our Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And the other thing I'll point out on that too,
just because plus eight hundreds a terrible bet doesn't mean
minus fourteen hundred's a good bet because it's a six
hundred cent line, well said, Normally you're dealing with a
twenty cent line. Minus one ten minus one ten is
twenty cents six hundred. It's a six dollars line. So yeah,
the house edge and there's just no edge either.
Speaker 4: Well huge, you just can't beat it.
Speaker 2: It's very hard to overcome a six hundred cent line.
In general, I would say, Yanni on the way out.
Anything you see out here on Friday or even Saturday,
I know college hoops has been great. And by the way,
every Monday, because I was on after you on Monday,
I saw that you're gonna be giving out your updated
ranking for college hoops every day. Indian Dan, we're excited
about that. That's pretty cool stuff.
Speaker 3: Three to five under rounded or over valued teams. Let
me give you some of the college basketball in NBA
that's on the steam sheet. I'll just name off a
couple of the signs for you. Five thirty one, Nick,
say to pick them. Five thirty three Miami at plus seven.
Speaker 4: This one's good.
Speaker 3: Five thirty eight Minnesota the by orders at minus nine.
Now they took eleven and a half eleven they dominated
up overnight for nickel limits. Miami gets the nine. That
one's going to get blasted. Also the over two thirty
six in New Orleans and Miami. And then throw in
five forty one, Clippers minus three, College Basketball eight seventy one,
loyal to Chicago plus the eleven and a half plus
the eleven eight seven three Brown plus the fifteen and
a half eight seven six VCU minus seven eight eight seven,
Belmont minus three. So at some of the earlier sharp stuff,
I do have the steam sheet up.
Speaker 4: There's a four.
Speaker 3: Percent in college basketball. I think that the best bet
in the steam sheets hit every single day this week,
I'm pretty sure.
Speaker 4: So we're on a really good run again.
Speaker 3: The power ratings for college basketball and the NBA are
getting tighter and tighter as we're getting more and more data,
so you're seeing the results are starting to pay off
for subscribers. Up over the last three days, last seven days,
last thirty days, and sit in fourth and profit for
twenty twenty six. So for those that partner it up
for me this year, just keep grinding, follow the money management.
Speaker 4: Plan we have.
Speaker 3: We'll do just finding twenty twenty six. And again steam
Room is Sunday.
Speaker 4: We're gonna do.
Speaker 3: An hour talk about all the sides, totals, props. Get
you ready for that Super Bowl. It's gonna be at
a one pm Eastern so you have plenty of time
to hit those Super Bowl parties, get all your bets in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yany I to ask you about that on the
way out right, Andy, that's for long term only and
NFL subscribers only.
Speaker 3: Right on Sunday, yes sir, Yes, sir, And we're gonna
wrap up the great twenty twenty five twenty six NFL
season and prepare the game plan moving forward for the
rest of twenty twenty six because it'll be on Saturdays.
Moving forward, we'll have a lot of live bets, a
lot of the college basketball stuff that comes in MMA.
So after this Sunday, we'll be moving to Saturday for
that steam room for subscribers, So make sure you join us,
and best luck to you this weekend.
Speaker 4: Brother, Thank you real.
Speaker 1: Quick, Yanni, real quick. We got a question, yeah from areas.
Can you explain why Super Bowl prop betting is so
much higher volume for syndicates in the Super Bowl rather
than other games. Liquidity there's a lot more options.
Speaker 3: Yeah, options and liquidity meaning you could get a lot
more down the limits are higher and the amount of
properties providing the prop are a lot greater and.
Speaker 4: It's a lot more like you touched on a lot more.
Speaker 3: Options, and because each property is trying to get creative,
they'll originate some of their own props for the Super Bowl.
And a lot of times those lines are inefficient because
they're not copying them off somebody else, and those get
hit a lot. So the opportunities are just so huge
for a Super Bowl. And remember you could place thirty
forty plus bets in one day. To do that usually
takes a lot, a lot of different matchups. But to
be able to fire that many plus TV bets on
one game. When thus settles again, they should find themselves profitable.
That's where the Super Bowl prop betting uh is so advantageous.
Speaker 2: Awesome Janni the Greek waitertalk dot com and you'll see
him in the steam room this weekend. Not too late.
You can join w T dot buzz slash VR. Get
you there quicker. Thanks Yanni, good luck this weekend.
Speaker 1: My man, all right? Picking up wings from buffalois that's
a local place here in uh here in Indianapolis. Yeah,
never heard of. This is going to be let's just
say they're going to be busy on.
Speaker 5: Super Bowl Buffalo.
Speaker 2: They're gonna be Buffalo.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's there's two wing places that are legendary here
in the city. And I don't even I can't even
guess how many wings they go through U for pre
orders on the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. That's going to be a
busy day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Yeah, to the point about I consider laughing
to here Yannie talking about like, well, there's a lot
more options, a lot more liquidity. They're not giving out
Gatorade props for a regular season game between like the
Dolphins and the in your Commanders, Steve, not too many props.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my Commanders will not have gatory props anytime soon.
Although they were in the championship last year and they
didn't even have a Gatoray prop for that one. And
as I said, I loved the Eagles. It was one
of the best plays I saw all season. And they
never would have brought Redskins back had they won that game.
So there's still a chance because they don't look like
they're gonna be any good for a couple of years now. Andy,
have you ever messed with the Gatoray props or the
National anthem props? And if you have, like, okay, so
you have it. If you have, what did you base
it on it? Was ask you okay.
Speaker 1: So the single greatest Super Bowl prop bet I ever made,
and unfortunately I couldn't get a lot down. It was
when he was here in Indianapolis and I was I was.
I was able to interact with the local committee because
of some business things, and there was a prop will
there be a flyover? Well, we have a roof over
the stadium and it was it's winter, like the roof
wasn't going to be open. So I was able to
ask the committee, Hey, what's the flyover this year? And
there's no flyover? I was like, thank you.
Speaker 2: The off where they thought you were an idiot, but
you made some money off it, so it was worth it. Yes, yes,
And it's like for betting purposes, will there be a flyover?
You just say like, what's the flyer selling me? Yeah?
Speaker 6: Uh?
Speaker 1: And there there was another one what color will the
the the mic screen? What color will the mic screen
be for the national anthem? And different microphones use different
colors of screens. So I was able to look up
what microphone manufacturer this year because.
Speaker 2: They probably used they probably prefer their mic still, right, yeah.
Speaker 1: Yes, so they bring their own mics and so I
knew it and the super Bowl was outside and it
was windy, and they put a freaking wind screen over it,
and they and they voided it. They avoid it. They
avoided you. Like I was livid. I was like, no, no,
you can see the color of the screen. It's right there, like, no, no, no,
they put a wind screen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was could have gotten like one hundred to
one on wind screen that they given that option. Then
you would have lost themvents.
Speaker 1: It could have been worse, ridiculous crazy.
Speaker 2: But this all serious point though, This is why the
west Gate and the other Vegas books cannot offer these
props because there's a lot of ambugiggy. You know, could
have a flyover, by the way, would not have shocked
me if they've done a flyover and they showed it
like on the TV. Still, so you never know. None
of these things are sure things, right, I mean even
then when you have information like that, things can change
like a winscreen.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, crazy good specials that are up. And honestly, Steve,
this is our weekend starts today. It's a massive, massive
run here. We've got four percent NBA best bet that
is up four percent. Rugby goes off tomorrow. We have
two four percent UFC best bets, five percent super Bowl props.
Best way I've been talking about it all week by
ten days for the price of seven that is on
the specials page. It's good for every handicapper. It works
really well for what myself and my team have you
saved sixty nine bucks. It's really a no brainer. Like
one five percent plays thirty five bucks and you're getting
multiple four percent plays for me. So that is the
best way to take advantage of my plays that are up.
So yeah, it is a big, big, big weekend, Steve,
I could not be more excited coming off really nice
three and one day yesterday, two and oh in NBA.
So feeling good about the momentum going into the weekend,
and appreciate everybody that's jumped on board so far. Never
too late to jump on, jump on board. But today
is the most important day, so we can luck in
those four percent best bets. All right, let's bring in Teddy, Teddy,
happy NBA trade week, Busy, busy week in the n
b A And that's where I want to get started.
I messaged you yesterday, let's just talk NBA trades here.
You got some winners, you got some losers. So I'll
just let you get going here. What's your what's your
what's your big wins?
Speaker 6: So let's start with this because we have to talk
conceptually about the NBA trading deadline. And I'm going to
tell you how much I jufted my power ratings for
each team And the answer is zero, okay, zero?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 5: What?
Speaker 6: And there wasn't a single trade deadline move that said,
oh well, you better adjust your rating right now for
this it's you know, this team's way better.
Speaker 2: Zero Okay. They're all the same teams as they were two.
Speaker 6: Days ago, all right, but what we do now were
really quick on the trigger to see as teams get
better in terms of adjusting power rating numbers, you know,
happy to adjust, you know, and after a normal regular
season game, I'm not adjusting anything over more than a
half a point, you know, unless the buddy gets hurt
right now for the next week. I might adjusting team
two points after a game if I see something that
I didn't expect. Wow they're really good or wow, really bad.
But the majority of the stuff we start from the
trade deadline. And here's the biggest names, you know, Trey
Young and Anthony Davis, kept moved to Washington.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 6: You know, Indiana a buyer at the trade deadline. You know,
you have teams that the Utah a buyer at the
trade deadline. You have these teams that are sitting at
her near last place in their respective conferences, and they're buying,
which speaks to next year, you know where You know,
Utah wants to be in contention for the playoffs next year.
The first number you see for the Washington Wizards for
season wins this offseason, bet it over. Now they're interested
in making the playoff as soon as you see it,
bet it over. The Wizards are saying, we're interested in
making the playoffs next year. They haven't been in the
playoffs in like a you know, half a decade. Utah's
in the same story Indiana. Obviously, this is the Hallim
Burton year where there's no uh that that they knew
coming in that they were going to be struggles. So
now they're saying, all right, this is their throwaway here,
but look next year, we're going to be right back
in contention. So and meanwhile, the contenders didn't do anything,
you know, Okay, see he's like, yeah, whatever, you know
what we're gonna trade away with some draft picks because
we have so many of them. They pick up McCay
and McCain might be a decent pickup for them. You know,
they're so injury ddled right now, it's hard to see
even say what that team looks like. Uh but you know, okay,
see certainly a team, you know, as the teams that
are expected to compete for championship, you expect to make win. Now, Boston, Okay,
Boston trade Simon's for Kukovic. People like that the neutral deal. No,
Simon's really helped them. Vukovich, they had a Vukovich on
the roster.
Speaker 2: What was that about?
Speaker 6: Getting under the second apron of the salary camp? So
Boston got worse for the rest of this year, you know.
And I know if names we know, we're thirty five
years old. Where Simon's been hiding Portland for his whole career,
so people don't know him as well. But Simons has
been an instant offense off the bench. Boston is a
team that I'm like, Okay, we're gonna watch the Celtics
and be prepared to downgrade them a point if need be,
you know. So I'm just going on and on here.
If you want more pointed questions, I'll answer anything you got.
But yeah, there's lots of lots of smoke, but not
that much fire.
Speaker 1: I really liked the Minnesota picking up the guard from
Chicago assume move. That was a big need for them.
It was one of those where like, is it is
it gonna move the needle? Maybe maybe not, but he
is electric and he's just so much better than what
they currently have. That was one of my favorite moves
for this season.
Speaker 6: Well, the talk about, you know, the corpse of Mike Conley,
you know, and I heard someone's talking about the corpse
of Brook Lopez before it was playing for that was
here right there, we talking about the Brook Lopez over.
You know, Brook Lopez is old man, Mike Conley is old.
So now they get someone off the bench you can
who can help. But you say, how much is a
guy like that?
Speaker 7: Uh?
Speaker 2: Oh? Do Simona really affect your points?
Speaker 5: Bread?
Speaker 6: There's nothing, you know, maybe maybe it makes you like
Minnesota a little bit better, you know, maybe it makes
a rotation a little bit tighter. But when you talk
about how is this affecting the points, Bread, don't affect
the points better at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, next year is going to be really interesting. The
Pacers are loading up. It's my Pacers, so I got asked.
Seemed like a haul, but we've just never had a
center like like like Zubac and you pair him with
Haliburton and Pascal sciatt I was looking hard at the
Pacers win total under it's twenty one and a half
right now. They have thirteen wins right now, that's trade.
They keep the pick if it's the first, second, third,
or fourth next year, like this is a Pacers team
where I think Pascal Siaka may have a calf injury
coming up real soon. They need to lose every possible game. Uh,
and it's gonna be tough because this coach loves winning.
Did you like what they did for next year?
Speaker 6: So if you're gonna make that move, why don't you
just resign Myles Turner to begin with, you know what
I mean? And then you have Turner and Mathrin on
the roster. Zu bag again she makes the wrong age.
You know, I don't want my seven footers as they
approach thirty and older. I want my seven footers that
are nice and young, you know, like Boston got Keita.
You know, as there as they're seven footer and oh no, no, no,
these are let's get a let's let let's bever get
an old guy that we have to mix in minutes with. So,
I mean, do I like what Indiana did to be competitive? Sure,
there's a chance in Indiana might be right back to
where they were. Indiana and Boston both might be right
back to where they were to start next season. But
that's called a chance, it's not a it's no lock.
Speaker 1: True, true. Yeah, Zubach is way less money than Miles Turner.
I guess that's a good thing. And I think Miles
Turner just run his course.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: We knew what we had in Miles Turner, and there
was a low ceiling.
Speaker 6: So just yeah, but Miles Turner didn't cost you anything
to re sign in terms of mathering. You know, matherinsru,
you're gonna miss him.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna miss him. I'm not gonna miss him,
But I know what you say. All right, let's get
into uh, let's get into some games here. Let's talk
this heat Celtics game. It says that Vussovich maybe starting tonight.
That's kind of a weird shake up here. I don't
know if I believe that totally, but books have Boston's
is the big favorite here minus six and a half
over under two twenty nine and a half. How do
you break this game down?
Speaker 6: So you know, Boston has Vukevich on the ross are
already you know, and Luke Garza.
Speaker 2: You know, they're the same guy, they really are.
Speaker 6: And now they're saying we're gonna take have Garza off
the bench and have a bigger low post presence to
start the game and play two bigs and have a
third guy coming off the bench. So I mean it's
it could help Boston in that sense of now they're
gonna be a little bit bigger. Although Vievis quotes I
know some limitations I have. I'm aware of them.
Speaker 2: Which is kind of hilarious because it's true.
Speaker 6: But you know, Joe Missoula, you know, it helped us
on multiple fronts terms of ploid flood playing two bigs
but they haven't done much this year. Helped us defensively,
helped offensively with matchup recognition. You know, we're able to
be in our matchups because of that. I thought those
guys did a great job. I thought Luke and Mimi
were great. Mimi was kind of the best version of him,
So they're hoping that same scenario happens in Vievich's first
game in Boston. I'm not sure that I agree with that.
Miami's coming off a pretty bad loss. You know, they
were in Atlanta on Tuesday, and again they've had two
days off since, so a little bit of extra restricts
of Boston playing third game in four nights. But on
Tuesday night, didn't have Andrew Wiggins, who's been really impactful
for that team. They didn't have Norm Powell and obviously
been playing without Tyler Hero. He's been out what for
a dozen games now or something since the last time
he came in. They didn't have any of their three
best scorers, and it showed. You know, Atlanta did whatever
they wanted in that ballgame and beat them by a dozen.
Now Here didn't make this trip. I don't know. He's
not gonna play. It doesn't look like until after the
All Star break. But Wiggins and Powell both likely to
be back for Miami tonight, and those are two impact players,
you know, I think more than the marketplace. I might say, now,
we don't have that for sure, but that's what it
looks like. You know, we've seen the struggle for Miami
in their three point defense. They give up twenty one
to three pointers against Atlanta, they give up twenty against
Chicago in their previous game. So Boston is a type
of team that, in theories to be able to take
advantage of that. That being said, all the talk out
of Miami is we better play better from three point defense.
You know Haimi Jacket, you know Jake is quote, we
couldn't get it done defensively. They lit us up from three,
something that's been a theme for us the last couple
of losses. So there's obviously some urgency for Miami when
it comes to that three point defense. But the biggest
issue here for me in terms of how are you
going to approach this game. Boston's third game in four nights.
They're off satisfying wins and back to backs at Dallas
at Houston All Star Break coming. This is not a
max intensity spot for the home team. Miami's coming off
a bad loss. Their last six losses. There's six and
oh straight up six and oh against the spread the
following game, So Miami's bet on off a loss all
the way and they should be getting not one but
two of their three best players back from injury absence.
So put it all together with a team I like
to take point with. Let's look at Miami plus the
points in Boston tonight. Expect a battle, not a blow up.
Speaker 1: That's what was the quote from Bruce Mitch. I know
I have some limitations mobility, defense, intensity, playoff success.
Speaker 6: But other than that, yeah, I know I know some
of the limitations I have.
Speaker 2: I'm aware of them.
Speaker 6: As you get older, that happens you start to recognize
the limitations you have and you become aware of them as.
Speaker 1: Self Awareness month. That's a great quote. Uh, super Bowl.
Any last thoughts here before we get to the big
game here, Teddy, is anything changed for you? Seen any
lines move that you like?
Speaker 6: I mean, that's a very broad question. So I want
to talk for a minute. Let me talk briefly about
props conceptually. I thought Yanni said something really smart earlier,
and I want to the pups that I'm looking for
the general strategy for props for me, I want over
or under, I want yes or no.
Speaker 2: I want a ARB.
Speaker 6: That's where you're gonna find minus one tens and the
moral equivalent thereof where there's only two options. What I
don't want is first player to get a touchdown MVP
these ones where there's.
Speaker 2: Forty different options.
Speaker 6: Okay, well you have to pick the needle in the haystack,
and then you're not getting true value for even if
you pick it right. So I really avoid the here's
ten different choices, pick one of them, here's forty different choices,
Pick one of them, and try to focus on the
yes no over under a ARB. So conceptually, that's what
I look for. The second concept when it comes to
Super Bowl betting that I want to talk about with
PROPS is the concept of betting a little to win
a lot. And this is your classic recreational better mistake.
They're betting the yes safety. They're betting the yes overtime.
They're betting the yes May two point conversion, they're betting
the yes octopus. Now I'm not saying that it's sharp
to be betting the nose on these because the gap
between yes and no is significant, all right, And if
it is one of those years where the safety hits,
their overtime comes through or whatever, you know, losing a
thousand to win a dollar, you know, or winter one hundred,
they can mess up your whole day. So I'm not
saying the other side is a good bet, but the particular,
the safety, the overtime, the two point conversion of the octopus,
those are bad bets, guys. You know, keep that money
in your pocket even if it cashes and you laugh
at me on Monday one of them comes through, You're like, oh,
i'd a won bet.
Speaker 2: Great, you lost it somewhere else anyway.
Speaker 6: So it's one of those deals where I avoid those
bets like the plague.
Speaker 2: And I would encourage others to avoid them as well.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna do sell me here in a bit, Steve.
This is your first, your first sell me. So since
Dan isn't here, by the way, shout out to Dan
closing on his house. Big day for him and his wife,
very exciting. So normally what happens, Dan picks a game
and then assigns a side and Steve, normally Dan tries
to pick a gross, disgusting game with two bad teams.
I mean, the Clippers and Kings is just an automatic
this one today, So Steve, you get to assign the
side here, so you get to tell Teddy if he
has to defend the Kings, and I have to defend
the Clippers, or you get to pick and we give
away a three day pass. So after the show comment below,
give us your wager Talk user name, and if you
agree with Teddy or Andy and whoever wins, will pick
one of you guys and you'll win a free three
day pass. So we're going with this absolutely disgusting game tonight.
I mean, the starting lineups are just are an abomination here.
So Steve assign the teams. Who gets the Kings, Who
gets the Clippers?
Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously I want to give Teddy the tougher one
to defend, but I think it's pretty much net neutral
here at fifty to fifty. We've seen hardly any line
movement on this. It's been basically three and a half
across the board all day. Just give you. I'll give
you what's probably the better team because I'm making it better.
I'll give you the Clippers because I was gonna give
you the uglier team, the Kings. But then you'll like, oh,
I'll take the points with the ugly teams. I'll give
the Clippers. Teddy gets the Clippers, and he gets the Kings,
all right, Oh.
Speaker 1: Teddy, the floor flora is yours. You get the Clippers.
What say you?
Speaker 6: So these two teams played once this year and one
thirty one to one ninety. Oh sorry, one thirty one
to ninety. It was a forty one point the LA victory.
That seems to happen a lot to Sacramento late. And
of course, when you talk about a team that's you know,
when you great out Sacramento's personnel, you see a team
the minmy of Chicago. All right, they should probably be
power rated five points higher than I have him right now,
all right, they are the me of mediocre, the type
of team. They're supposed to win thirty five, thirty six,
thirty eight games. Instead they're sitting with the worst.
Speaker 2: Record in the league. Why because they don't give a shit?
Speaker 6: All right, they don't, all right, And if I had
Doug Christy coaching me, I probably wouldn't give a shit either,
because Doug Christy, when it comes together, let's let's make adjustments,
let's let's massage our players. No, you know, everyone hated
him when he was a player. Everyone hates him as
a coach. This team is a chemistry nightmare. And there's
not a lot of you know, oh, here's a chance,
maybe someone got out of town in the trade.
Speaker 2: They don't know.
Speaker 6: Sacramento didn't trade anyone at the trade deadline. So the Clippers, hey,
they're still fighting. They're still trying Sacramento they gave up
two months ago. Clips they're laying points here for a reason.
And frankly, my party number says, this line's short. My
numbers five, I'm seeing only three and a half out here.
That's how bad Sacramento is.
Speaker 2: Andy gave him the wrong side, Andy, I gave him
the wrong side. That was too easy. No, no, I
have the Kings.
Speaker 1: Are you sure the Clippers care at this point?
Speaker 2: Right now?
Speaker 1: It looks like Garland's not going to be playing Jackson
Mather and not playing I will read you the starting
line up we talked about, Brook Lopez, John Collins. How
motivated is Kawhi to put on a good show now?
Starting at guard Chris Dunn. Yes, he puts the done
in done. He has done. And listen, they got Kobe,
not that Kobe, Kobe Sanders. If you don't know, Kobe
Sanders very libera role. He's starting here. And the Clippers,
how have they done in trade week with morale at
an all time low? Well, they just gave up one
hundred and twenty four and one hundred and twenty eight
points to Cleveland and Philadelphia. This is a Clippers team
that traded away to try and just rebuild for next year.
Get rid of the Harden thing. I don't think Kawi
cares about this at all. Getting points in this time
game is the only way to look at it. Listen,
they've only lost the last couple of games by four. Yeah,
it was the Memphis and Washington, but still they were
they were pretty close to covering in that one. They
do have a little bit of chemistry. They've been playing
with each other. They know, they know, they know each
other's styles. Well, this Clippers team is a dumpster fire
until Garland maybe gives them a spark. But until then,
it's a fade and they are one of the worst
defensive teams in the last four games. Give me all
those three and half points with the Sacramento Kings, All right, good, good,
sell me segment. I kind of like the Kings in
that one. But yes, right, no one, no Sharpney has
come in on this game.
Speaker 2: Andy Chris Dunn, the fifth overall draft pick in the
first round in twenty sixteen game Providence yeah, Providence. I
couldn't remember when he played, so I looked at Providence Province.
Speaker 1: What you have up for everyone for this weekend?
Speaker 2: So obviously it's we know what's going on. Super Bowl.
Speaker 6: I have a twelve play prop report for twenty nine
bucks right now for the clients. That's something we've worked
on all last week. We worked on all weekend and
it's up and available right now. But don't buy this
is this is not a weekend to buy plays. Get
that super Bowl All Access pass, the Weekend Warrior, a
forty nine bucks gees see everything Saturday, Everything's done day,
all plays aside and play for the Super Bowl. I
got a lean for the total. I got a dozen props.
The NBA is rolling right now. You know, seventy five
percent run. I'm on a seventy percent run with for
the year and twenty twenty six with my totals, I
do have a top total tonight. But don't buy plays
by packages. The Weekend Warrior is a good deal right now.
The seven days for the price of ten is a
good deal right now. The super Bowl, the super Bowl
All Access is a good deal right now if you
want to get on board, So check out the on
page MQ dot Buzz, backslash TC.
Speaker 1: Teddy Covers, appreciate it. Thank you very much. Good luck
this weekend, Steve, it is it's about Sester weekend. Tell
her on what you have up.
Speaker 2: Yes, I do have my Super Bowl sixty best bet
locked and loaded right now. We put that up in advance.
You can get the best numbers. Shop around. The lines
keep moving, and I do think there's some nice value there.
It's a strong four percent client best bet for Super
Bowl sixty, number one in the NFL over the past
year plus now in profit including this season. Also a
college basketball best bet for tonight on Friday, and my
top NBA opinion for tonight is free. Don't even have
to get it. My top NBA opinion is free with
analysis on my page right now. Stevemarrillwager Talk dot com,
get there, quicker, WT dot Buzz, slash sm and I
will have that deep dive Super Bowl sixty video ready
later this evening, and it might be for insiders only
on Friday night. Don't forget. It's just two dollars ninety
nine cents to be an insider, and then that'll be
available to everybody on Saturday if you want to wait
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Speaker 1: Uh Lino has a great question. Who won last week's challenge?
Glad you asked? The winner for the three day pass
is Brian c Kellerher correctly predicted this one. So Brian,
you're the big winner. You get a three day pass.
We'll put that in your wager talk account and that start.
What a great weekend to get a three day pass.
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, time that one before Super Bowl boom.
Speaker 1: Actually, and actually, you know what, since that game is tonight,
when you guys put the comment in the comment section
after the show is over for tonight's game, whoever wins tonight,
we'll get your three day pass started tomorrow. That way,
you get Saturday and Sunday for the Super Bowl. So
not gonna wait till Monday after the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4: Here's your free.
Speaker 5: Three day pass.
Speaker 1: Sorry we missed you on Sunday.
Speaker 2: And by the way, they don't win. Andy Teddy pointed out,
I didn't realize that was on the page that week
in Warrior. Saturday and Sunday for forty nine is all
sports basketball football for me, basketball football, every sport in
the universe for you, Rugby. I heard you say, My goodness,
not a bad time to try a two day for
forty nine. One day is thirty nine. Get a two
day for forty nine Saturday and Sunday. No promo codes needed,
So on everyone's page and get multiple guys. Get Andy Lang,
get Steve Marrol. We're gonna have totally different sports almost
no crossover whatsoever. That's the way to do it.
Speaker 1: No, we're not going to have opposite sides on cricket
next week, are we, Steve.
Speaker 2: We're gonna have no sides, at least from what one
side is. Gonna have no sides all.
Speaker 1: Right, Before before Marco comes in, we have to talk
about the scandal that is rocking the skiing long jump.
And I do want Marco to hear this. Have you
seen this Steve kenis Gate, No.
Speaker 2: And I wasn't sure. I was about to lead it
to you when I saw you type it up, and
I wasn't sure if that's how it was pronounced. So
I'm glad you said it not me.
Speaker 1: So Apparently a couple of long jump skiers a while
back got suspended because they were injecting there, you know what,
to make it big, the reason why the suits a
little bit wider in the crotch area make the descent
a little bit longer. So they've been suspended for expanding
their genitals to try and an edge in the skiing
long jump competition. And the athletes have been warned, you
can't do this. So I asked you, Steve, how do
you check this?
Speaker 2: Well, the first day it came to mind is Frank
Thomas would say and show like it too. That was
the first day it came to mind for me. If
anybody knows, I'm sure anybody watching sports and seeing that
at a thousand times with Doug Flutie, it's all photo
Doug flute by the wall on Twitter yesterday with somebody
and he was looking old. I did not recognize him
at first, but that's crazy to me. Andy because the
first thought would be would be less aerodye. So when
you said that, I'm thinking, how is this helping you?
But it's on the descent, it's on the descent, it
makes you fly just the little bit. Well, I will say,
this is always longer. Why I wasn't a ski jumper
all that I should have been? No Ah, all these years,
I thought it was gonna be a detriment. I was
hoping it was gonna be an Eddie I was hoping
it was gonna be an Eddie the Eagle story, because
what I think of ski jumping, I think at the
nineteen I think eighty eight Olympics. And by the way,
anybody who's under forty doesn't know Eddite the Eagle, Google him. Man,
what a great story that was. I forgot the Olympics
had started because someone told me opening ceremonies were Friday.
I heard this yesterday, and then a friend of mine said, oh, no,
Curly started like at four point thirty this morning. So
I need to get on the ball. I never get
interested until I turn on an event, and then I'm addicted.
For like two weeks straight. I watched nothing but Olympics.
It's like that. Every year for me in the World
Cup as well. Yeah, now I'm gonna watch the I'm
definitely watching ski jumping. By the way, I like, I
like ski jumping. But now I'm like really intrigued if
they're gonna be talking Are they gonna be talking about that?
Do you think on the announce?
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I guess if I guess. If
I'm a if I'm a long jumper and a coach
comes to me and tells me this, I'm like, you
know what, I'm good. I'll just practice a little bit more.
I'll pass on.
Speaker 2: Uh. I'll tell you what. From a marketing standpoint, NPC
is going to get a lot more female viewers on
ski jumping. Now, this was a brilliant story to release.
Even if it's fake news, it's a brilliant story to release.
Watch the ski jumping for the for the penis scandal?
Speaker 5: What?
Speaker 2: How do you can we turn on ski jumping tonight? Hell?
You watching ski jumping for Oh?
Speaker 1: All right, well let's bring in Marco.
Speaker 2: I don't know you wanted to transition there. I thought
you thought better. You're about to say something and you
caught yourself. I know it.
Speaker 1: Try owner of company Marco.
Speaker 2: How are you super Bowl food of the week sausage Marco.
Great to have you on this show.
Speaker 5: All I know is no pain, no game here we go.
Speaker 2: Take it for the team.
Speaker 8: Yeah, that definitely was not an intro I thought I
would be segueing from.
Speaker 2: So Marco, we're gonna get to your your sauce of
the week. I guess you're going that round unless you're
gonna get a little twisted on us here for super Bowl.
I'll leave it up to you, but I'm looking forward
to because I do want to get your fan I mean,
you're a food guy, so I can't wait to hear
your favorite super Bowl fit. But think about this as
well as you're doing the games. What's your least favorite
because I want to get that one also. But we'll
start a little college oops. Probably the best game of
the board, and Joe Ronary, by the way, touched on
this game the best betting show ever. That'll be up
Friday afternoon and we have a deep dive once again
with Arthur de Caesar. Tons of inside information from the
West game on the super Bowl side of things, But
this is the best game of the night in college hoops.
Marco Yukon and Saint John's. What are you doing with
this one?
Speaker 8: Well, obviously you take a look at Yukon and they've
won eighteen straight while Saint John's just put together an
eight game winning streak. But Connecticut the last two games
back to back blowout wins over Creighton and Xavier. But
prior to that, Yukon, even though they've been rolling, you're
paying a price when you're betting Yukon, and they had
lost the seven in a row to the spread before
those last two blowouts. Saint John's this is a team.
They play a little bit of defense. They've held three
of their last four opponents to seventy or fewer points.
And I say this a lot when we do these
Friday night games. I'm always on on Friday, and we
picked the Marquee game on the Friday night schedule. If
this game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't be looking at
the game. But because it is on Friday night and
it is that, you know, there's other games. But let's
be honest, this is the standalone game Fox. This is
what everybody's going to be watching tonight. It does intrigue me.
And I've always said we talk about it in football
as well, these Thursday night games, Friday night games in football.
In basketball, it's the Friday night game, the TV game.
It's a different situation. It's a different atmosphere for the
home team in the way that the crowd reacts, And
I think Saint John's has a very good chance to
pull the upset tonight in this one. You look at
Saint John's, they're seventeen and five for the season, and
you look at Yukon at twenty two and one. It's
a situation where obviously you would want to gravitate to
Yukon when you're looking at a number that's basically picked
the winner. But I look at that seventeen and five
record of Saint John's and you go back for of
those losses happened before Christmas, and who were those losses to.
How about Arizona, Iowa State, Auburn in Kentucky. That's a
pretty good lineup of early season matchups and what that
does for a team when you play a tough schedule
like that. We talk about it all the time with
Michigan State and tom Izzo. You scheduled tough games in
November and December. That's gonna pay dividends in February in March,
and that's what I'm banking on here. I'm gonna go ahead.
I'm gonna take the points with Saint John's. Call it
a mild upset. I know when you anytime you upset Yukon,
it's not mild. But I think this Saint John's team
is a lot better than people think. And I think
we're gonna see it tonight on the national stage. Give
me Saint John's plus the points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Marco. I love what they're doing with these Friday
night games. We had Michigan Michigan State last Friday night
on Fox, which was a top ten national matchup. Why not, right,
Remember back in the day when we'd get four IVY
League games and that was all we had back in
the nineties and early two thousands. It's like and then
we'd have one hundred and fifty Saturday games. So love
what they're doing with these spotlight college basketball games. This
is a good one tonight. Marco likes that home dog
there and it should be a good game throughout. All Right,
let's talk a little super Bowl with you. You know, I
keep promoting the best betting show ever, but it really
was a great episode with Arthur deceased and all that insight,
and we touched on this as well about Super Bowl MVP,
and I brought up the old correlation between if you
like you know a side. That's obviously only once in
the history of the Super Bowl. I believe it was
Super Bowl five that we had the losing team get
the MVP. But it's almost always the quarterback. I think
it was eight of the last eleven when it hasn't
been recently, by the way, it's been preg ret wide receiver,
which is crazy to me. The receivers win as much
as they do because they got to figure the quarterbacks
are throwing all those touchdown passes. But normally, if you
get the side right, you're going to probably get the
quarterback from that team as the MVP. How are you
approaching the MVP market? Do you agree with that sentiment
or do you have a different twist on it. Oh?
Speaker 8: No, that's absolutely the way I look at it, And
to me, in the actual numbers, quarterbacks have one twelve
of the last sixteen Super Bowl MVPs, And to me,
I use it as a different way to bet the
team that you like if they're the favorite. If you
don't want to lay the four and a half points
with Seattle, and you don't want to lay the money line,
which is anywhere from here in Vegas from minus two
twenty to minus two forty, there's a different way to
approach it. You can put some money on the MVP,
and that MVP would be Sam Donald, and you're right,
you know, the next most likely guy would be JSN
for Seattle. But somebody's got to throw him the football.
And the reason why I think Sam Donald has the
upper hand in that not only because of history, but
I think he also saw it last night with the
MVP for the season. Granted, if we carried THEVP vote
for the full season into the playoffs, Matthew Stafford definitely
performed better in the playoffs than Drake May did. But
during the regular season, everybody thought Drake May was the
favorite to win the MVP. Uh, just because of what
he did and what he meant to the New England Patriots.
But because it's a vote, sometimes there's a little bit
of the sentiment there with it. In Matthew Stafford being
a longtime player and everything. Sometimes you get the sympathy vote,
you know, if it's a coin toss, You're gonna go
to a guy with a good story, and Matthew Stafford
is that here for the Super Bowl? Where's the good story?
The story is Sam Donald. This is a guy that's
played for five different teams in the last five years.
That's pretty huge, and he's silenced the critics. He's the
winningest quarterback in the NFL over the last two seasons.
I think he's at thirty and seven right now. But
the only thing people remembered were those last two games
from last year because he lost that game to the
Lions on the regular season finale, which was for first
place in the division in home field. Then they got
toasted in the playoff game against the Rams. So everybody, well,
that's the Sam Donald we all know and love. That
was the New York Jet Sam Darnaldy saw the ghost again.
And then he lost the first game, the first meeting
this year against the Rams. They lost by two when
he threw four interceptions, and again he got that stigma
placed on him he can't win the big game. But
what he's done in the playoffs in the last game
of the regular season has exercised all of those demons
and now it becomes a great story. And I think
that if Seattle wins the game, Sam Donald is your
MVP and you're getting plus money with him plus one twenty,
that's the way to go if you don't want to
lay the points or the money line, So go ahead
and take Sam Donald MVP. And that's a play. It's
actually a client play. I did give out as a
one and a half unit play for my clients.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Marco, that's a bigger split than we normally see
between the game money line and the quarterback. I think
last year, you know, the Chiefs and Mahomes was like
minus one thirty even. I mean it was almost identical,
and obviously that didn't work out, But that's just the
thought process there is that normally it's very correlated. So
to get that kind of a plus money price instead
of having to lay the money or lay the four
and a half, if you do like the Seahawks, I
agree with you. I think that's a good way to go.
And you know, I'm looking back at the history of it.
We talk about the two wide receivers one in it.
We've had five quarterbacks and two wide receivers the last
seven years, which is crazy to me. Because once again
they've got to be catching that ball from someone. It
was Cooper Cup ironically, he was in the game. Matthew
Stafford did not get it in that game, which surprised me.
But the other one was Edelman, which was the last
Patriot game with Brady, and that one made so much
sense going back to what you said, because they just
didn't want to give it to Brady anymore. I think
they were looking to give it to somebody else. So
that will not be the situation with Sam Darnold, who's
definitely a feel good story after being if I recall correctly,
was he the number three pick overall when the Jets
took him? He was up there, and.
Speaker 8: He was up there because I remember the year before
the chant in Vegas was sucked for Sam, you know,
when they were tanking.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And he was good in Minnesota and I
was good in Seattle. Just shows being on a bad team.
Hell can ruin what you look like as a quarterback
in the NFL. Mark before we get you out of here.
Any other props and also sauce of the week, super Bowl,
how are you approaching it this week for us?
Speaker 8: Yeah, guys, I've got one other prop I like for you,
I'll share with you, and that's total interceptions over one
and a half. And you could play this if you
didn't want to play the over one and a half
and you just want to take one QB and take
the over a half, I would lean to Drake May.
But I think you're going to get an interception at
least one from both qbs because of the defenses that
we do have here. These are our elite defenses. We've
talked about Seattle's defense all year. New England they've put
up great numbers as well. We've kind of put an
asterisk to anything that we say with New England because
and it's been beaten to death because of the strength
of their schedule. But again, you can only play who's
in front of you, and they've done a great job
against everybody that they have faced. But I think over
one and a half interceptions in this game is something
that's gonna happen. And you can get that around town
at minus one twenty and you look at that. Drake
Mays had interceptions in two of his three playoff games.
The only game that he did not have the interception
was the Denver game, where it was the weather and
once they got the ten to seven lead, I think
they felt they had enough points that they were sitting
on the football the rest of the game, not taking
any chances. And during the regular season he did throw
an interception in eight of his last thirteen games, and
Sam Darnold an interception in seven of his last thirteen.
So I think that's a prop that you could easily
get the over on that one. I know Andy likes
to look at those interception props. To you agree or
disagree Andy on that one.
Speaker 1: I have not had a good read on interceptions on
these guys. Like I think everyone's waiting for Darnold to
like make the big mistake or have the bad game.
It just hasn't happened. Drake May a young quarterback finally
facing a good defense, but he really doesn't make too
many mistakes. If I had to pick one quarterback, it
would be Drake May just because of the offensive line
issues and not and I could see him getting pressure
and throwing a bad one, but I expect I expect
a heavy running attack from both teams, so I would
lean under interceptions. But I'm not playing it with my
own money.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean big games. As to say, in general.
One thing about championship games, whether it's college football, you know,
or the Super Bowl. And now we're not on the
blowout era anymore, when we saw a ton of turnovers,
kick returns, interception returns in the eighties and nineties. It's
a different era now. But you do usually see mistakes,
and they usually come from one side more than the other.
But yeah, I would say, you know, two good quarterbacks
one at one each is not asking a in a
big game, as it doesn't seem to happen more times
than not. Marco, you're not doing the sauce, but I
think you're going to do a Super Bowl food? Am
I right? What are we doing with this?
Speaker 8: Yeah, we'll save We'll do the last sauce next week
where I ripped somebody in the Super Bowl with my
with my rant. But you know it's Super Bowl. Everybody
has food, and you know, what are your favorite fruits? Now,
obviously we'll put the disclaimer in there. Chicken wings are
you know, football and chicken wings are they go together.
But if we have a lot of people at your house,
if you're entertaining a party, wings are a little bit
of a pain in the butt to make for a
large group. You know, you can only put so many
in at a time and so forth, so you want
to be able to feed the masses and have those
And you know, for me, my menu this Super Bowl,
and you know, you want to do something where if
you've got to be doing the cooking, you don't want
to be missing the game either. So my big start
with appetizers, which you can prep early. You guys had
already mentioned it earlier. Buffalo chicken dip is a great
accom That's that's that's the way to go. So that's
where we get that little bit of the chicken wing
flavor in an easier form with a buffalo chicken. But
the halftime spread, Chef Marco will be man in the
Blackstone and we will be having our halftime taco buffet
and I will be grilling up chicken carna soada and
shrimp tacos on the Blackstone. And then what we can
do for feed a lot of people with minimal work
because you fix it, you prep it, and you put it,
you know, in low and slow.
Speaker 5: Baby back ribs.
Speaker 8: So that is the that is the Marco menu for
Sunday Super Bowl.
Speaker 5: Sunday.
Speaker 2: Damn. I like that Wow, chili. Chili is a good
one on the East coast. You can feed a lot
of people with like a pot of something, so like
that as well. Wow, yeah, you're gonna miss bad Bunny Marcus.
Speaker 5: That's also another reason.
Speaker 2: First I got thought he said halftimes, like he's gonna
miss the halftime show. That's like, what the bad We
know Marco's seeing so much Bad Bunny over the years
that he can miss one performance that won't hurt him.
Speaker 1: Wow, incredible baby back rims tacos.
Speaker 2: But well he's the cardial I Sada got me going
because I look at Marco, I think Mexican food, you know,
and so that got me going. But then I when
I heard the shrimp grilled shrimp, I'm like, my goodness
is going overboard here.
Speaker 5: You gotta have choices. Life's all about choices.
Speaker 2: There's too many choices. Most food overload.
Speaker 1: Great guys, get to town.
Speaker 8: You got you got a chance. If you land in town,
give me a buzz. We've got plenty of food.
Speaker 1: I'm redeeming points right now.
Speaker 2: And you can watch. We can watch the game at
the West Gate and look over the horizon and see
the smoke coming from Marco's residents from the grill, Wow
going on. I know you did a bet online, bet online,
bet on it, b o I, b o I, and
you got your Deli video coming up for this week,
and always love seeing that as well. That's one of
the greatest graphics. We got some good graphics now, but
that one also makes me hungry. Whenever I'm going to
comment on my videos, I see Marco with the damn
hot dog stand. It makes me hungry.
Speaker 8: Marco's Deli's taking on a life of its own. The
response to it's been incredible. In the basketball it makes
it a little tough. And you know, Steve, when we're
doing these videos and you're you're trying to do them
today before and so forth, get the stuff up. I'll
be doing that in the next hour. And the lines
aren't out yet for tomorrow's games. Okay, But because I
use situational stuff, I can put my stuff together, give
everybody what the situations are, and then what I do.
I come back on late Friday night Saturday morning, I'll
put an update in the comment section on the YouTube
channel and say, hey, this is what the official line is.
This is a play and the last week for the
first time, we took a play off the board that
I gave on Friday because the line did come out
higher than I expected it to do, and I said,
this is officially a no play, and I gave them
a replacement play on the video.
Speaker 5: So the play that.
Speaker 7: We canceled one as well, even though it was at
a higher number, still one. And then the play the
play that we put in and replaced it with one
as well, but we only counted what we called official.
Speaker 8: So we hit four out of five on last week's
on Delhi. And if you played the earlier game and
weren't able to cancel that bet, well you went five
and won last week.
Speaker 5: So the Deli's been doing great.
Speaker 8: That'll be out early afternoon today here in Vegas time,
so check that out and be sure to check back
in the morning to see if there's any changes on
the lines. And you guys have beat to death all
of the specials that we got going outweighed you're talking, yeah,
Weekend Warrior, get everything, college basketball, NBA, hockey, super Bowl.
If you only want the Super Bowl, I do have
a twenty nine dollars package up. It'll get you all
of my plays for the Super Bowl, including props. Last year,
the package consisted of four plays. We won all four
of them. That's you know, you know me. I go quality,
not quantity, but we'll probably have I would guess this
year somewhere between four and seven plays total for the
Super Bowl when it's all said and done, and will
add plays right through Sunday. So once you buy it,
you'll keep getting any updates as plays are added.
Speaker 2: Love it. That's good stuff, you know, you know Andy.
The one special we failed to mention that's up there
as well, is how about getting Friday and Saturday for free?
Because the super Bowl to super Bowl one year, specially
if you're ready to take that serious investment approach is
available and you don't have to wait till Sunday. If
you're going to do a one year, now's the time
to do it. It's like an instant eight hundred dollars
discount and you're getting Friday and Saturday free. You know,
we talk about the ten days for ninety nine. This
is every month for ninety nine plus the next couple
of days free. That all says on Marco's page, Andy's page,
my page, Steve Merrill Wager Talk dot com.
Speaker 1: Go get that as well, all right, good stuff, Marco,
thanks you, good luck, guys. Marco enjoy that food. Yeah,
Marco put us to shame.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like I got so hungry during this show.
I'm no longer hungry. Does that make sense? Something just
stops growling after a while. And I know we went
long today for all the viewers because it's Super Bowl Friday. Right.
If there's a show to go long on, it was
this one. But you got your around the world.
Speaker 1: I hear all around the world, which some free plays.
Let's do some free plays in the week here. I'm
going to knuckle Mania to get a start. If you
have Bare Knuckle Fighting championship lines. Ben Rothwell over Andrea Arolofski.
The money line's minus two hundred. This should be minus
four hundred. Ben Rothwell takes Bare Knuckle serious. He's four
and oh all all four wins by finish three of
them in the first on Andrea Alofsky is his story's
kind of tragic. He's going around and taking these random
fights just for paychecks because he lost all of his money.
He's he is in here not because of passion, but
because of desperation for money. You're taking Ben Rothel he
wins a title shot super Bowl Cross Sport. Here, Steve,
I'll get your thoughts after this. Maccollins more receiving yards
than Kawhi Leonard Points versus the Timberwalls on February eighth.
Mccollins has forty one yards receiving in three straight games,
and one of those was the snow game in Denver.
He's trusted, he's healthy, and Kawhi, I'm just not sure
the motivation is going to be there. I think Kawhi
would have to put up forty to get this one.
So I'll take mac collins to have more receiving yards.
And then tonight the Blazers and the Grizzlies, Donovan cleaning
over twelve and a half rebounds, Steve, have you seen
who's starting for the Grizzlies tonight at center?
Speaker 2: I looked it up.
Speaker 1: Donovan Klinging is six inches taller, and he's five inches
taller than the power forward Sabonus just had fifteen rebounds
against the Grizzlies game in twenty four minutes, so I
think Cleveton's gonna grab every single rebound in this one.
So I'll happily take the twelve and a half rebounds.
But before you go real quick, what do you think
about Mac Collins versus Kawhi Leonards.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll try I'll show him in on all of these. First,
the rebound prop. I love a five to six inch
edge as a as a center versus center when I'm
coaching basketball. So yeah, I like where you're going with that.
Plus I think the Grizzlies will be chucking up some shots.
Joe and Nary talked and I talked about this on
Best Bettings for the last two days. Shocking nobody wanted
John Morant. I mean, I'm actually shocked that Cleveland took
heart and I think that's a mistake. I mean, it's
part two right there. It's where does that not worked
out well? Right? For all the other teams? Yeah, you're
you touched on this earlier when I gave you the Kings.
I mean, Kawhi, what's his motivation? And the other thing
I'll point out about this crossport props Andy, as you know,
is like you have some time to hedge with the
Super Bowl, you know, being afterwards because you can see
the result beforehand. You don't know if you have a
huge advantage play or maybe if you're not feeling great
about it. If you want to hedge out and try
to middle it by a few, you know, yards if
it's closed or something, so it gives you some wiggle room.
And when I saw the rundown, I thought Ben Rothwell
was Ben Roethlisberger, and I got really excited because I
thought he needed money and he was in barre knuckle fighting.
But I love, I just love everything you said there.
First of all, he takes it serious. I would hope
you take bare knuckle fighting seriously because you're in some
trouble if you don't. But you touched on this so
much when we used to do shows together with the UFC.
You know, you get guys that want to be there,
and you get guys that are there because of need.
And man, first of all, you don't get better as
you get older, and like, you don't get stronger and faster,
and it's just yeah, it's just one of those things
that you got to be on your game when you're
in any kind of combat sport. What's the price on that,
by the way, I mean, I'm sure that's juiced, but.
Speaker 1: It's minus two hundred. I don't care about it. It
opened up at like minus one seventy.
Speaker 2: And yeah, but that's not bad. That sounds like it
should be minus four hundred, minus a thousand. I mean,
you've got a complete mismatch that sounds like. But I
love the motivational angle. You know, you go back to
your golf angle when guys had a baby. You know,
the wife's had a baby and they're distracted. I love.
And that's why Marco's done so well for decades. He's
a great situational handicapper, and you and I do that
as well. It's just a great way to hear. I
love any kind of things that have like an angle
like that. I think that made a lot of sense,
all of them.
Speaker 1: We're fanning golfer this week who just had a baby
in the off season.
Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, I once to get her clarified the golfer
did not have the baby, because that's a great LGPA
fade is to fade the pregnant golfer like which he's
got a belly, stick it out here and trying to swing.
But we don't get those angles too much anymore do
to everything.
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks very much for watching chat. You guys
killed it. Great week of Super Bowl shows and guys,
make sure responsible with your bets. This is my annual warning. Yeah,
it's so easy to pull out your phone during the
Super Bowl and fire off a bunch of live bets
when you're at a party or whatever. Just be careful
with your bankroll. It's one game. We want to come
back with our bank rolls a little bit bigger on Monday,
not a bunch of live bets that we regret, So
be careful. If you're live betting the super Bowl, it's
really really easy to get out of control on that one,
So Steeve, thank you so much for joining us. Make
sure you leave a comment after the show if you
agree with Teddy or if you agree with Andy, and
also include your wager time use your name so we
can apply it to your account first thing in the morning.
Thank you so much. Guys, good luck on all your
bets this weekend. We'll see everyone Monday. Take care,