WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.560 --> 00:00:14.960 I want me some Glorio. 2 00:00:03.680 --> 00:00:38.000 Oh yeah, Hello, Welcome to Deep Football Gloria Hold Podcast. 3 00:00:38.600 --> 00:00:42.759 Listen to Apple Podcasts, Sound Foul Spreaker, watch us live 4 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:47.039 on Facebook, live on live on Instagram. We thank each 5 00:00:47.119 --> 00:00:50.640 and every glory whole six for tuning in this week. 6 00:00:51.719 --> 00:00:57.799 I'm your name, Welcome to my money born. 7 00:00:59.679 --> 00:01:06.319 What all right? All ride bo ciphas Here we go. 8 00:01:06.599 --> 00:01:11.640 NFL Week numbers seven and oh baby, do we have 9 00:01:11.719 --> 00:01:17.200 some action this week? Lots of underdog winners, sounders, big, 10 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:20.120 big picks, danger zones. We got them all this week. 11 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:23.040 And as we are watching Joe Fleackel live on our 12 00:01:23.040 --> 00:01:27.159 TVs win maybe as an outright underdog, it makes me 13 00:01:27.239 --> 00:01:30.040 feel like this week that I have cooked up with 14 00:01:30.200 --> 00:01:33.359 all these underdog winners are gonna pay off. Big could 15 00:01:33.359 --> 00:01:36.040 be there, or it could be the six pack of 16 00:01:36.079 --> 00:01:39.439 booze I've already drank before we even started this fucking podcast. 17 00:01:39.760 --> 00:01:44.799 Either way, we all win boceivahs hit with that. But 18 00:01:45.760 --> 00:01:47.640 for the funny, it's a question fun. 19 00:01:47.920 --> 00:01:49.920 I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun. 20 00:01:50.319 --> 00:01:51.959 We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. 21 00:01:52.000 --> 00:01:53.280 When the classic surgery to. 22 00:01:53.280 --> 00:01:56.400 Remove our goddamn s files you'll be whistling symphony due 23 00:01:56.400 --> 00:01:58.840 to out of your assholes. Are you out here for 24 00:01:58.920 --> 00:01:59.799 the money? 25 00:02:00.040 --> 00:02:02.200 And money is the root of all evil? Doesn't fucking 26 00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:04.400 have any They say money can't buy happiness. 27 00:02:04.439 --> 00:02:07.000 Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to 28 00:02:07.079 --> 00:02:09.960 hear baby, you have come to the right place. Two 29 00:02:10.080 --> 00:02:13.039 questions for you people. Do you like football? What a 30 00:02:13.159 --> 00:02:17.360 stupid question that has What a stupid question? You ask 31 00:02:17.439 --> 00:02:21.960 a lot of stupid questions. My apologies, mister President's I 32 00:02:22.039 --> 00:02:25.560 will do better. Do you like money? 33 00:02:25.599 --> 00:02:28.520 I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I 34 00:02:28.639 --> 00:02:31.159 use it. I have a little I keep it in 35 00:02:31.199 --> 00:02:32.719 a jar on top of my refrigerator. 36 00:02:33.000 --> 00:02:35.039 I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where 37 00:02:35.080 --> 00:02:37.879 you come in. That's right, Adams Center. That's exactly where 38 00:02:37.919 --> 00:02:41.000 we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out 39 00:02:41.039 --> 00:02:45.039 all the winning opportunities. That's patreon dot com, slash bet 40 00:02:45.159 --> 00:02:49.120 underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that 41 00:02:49.159 --> 00:02:52.400 you can bet football the right way, the winning way, 42 00:02:52.639 --> 00:03:00.719 the bet FGH way, and as all ways. Here on 43 00:03:00.759 --> 00:03:05.479 the sports patio. We got that TeVeS glowing, We got 44 00:03:05.479 --> 00:03:07.599 the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is 45 00:03:07.639 --> 00:03:12.919 everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the shoe. My friend, 46 00:03:13.240 --> 00:03:20.759 tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting wo choice 47 00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:25.280 of the week. 48 00:03:25.879 --> 00:03:26.719 I still drunk. 49 00:03:26.800 --> 00:03:29.120 I feel right, Donna. 50 00:03:29.360 --> 00:03:31.599 Thank you very much, sir, search Tonight, I'm drinking any 51 00:03:31.719 --> 00:03:35.599 hard way. I p a from Chicago Brewing Company and 52 00:03:35.759 --> 00:03:41.560 Lost Vegas, Nevada located Longhorn inside of the Four Queens, 53 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:46.159 one of our favorite spots for drunken food. 54 00:03:46.599 --> 00:03:50.520 Great smelling. What a great smelling casino is? You know 55 00:03:50.759 --> 00:03:53.080 you can never forget the smell of the Four Queens. 56 00:03:53.159 --> 00:03:55.159 Let me tell you well. 57 00:03:55.159 --> 00:03:58.919 I'm drinking tonight speaking of smells, because I recently learned 58 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:01.719 the story of how the Fourth Queens got its name. 59 00:04:02.840 --> 00:04:05.599 So apparently, in nineteen seventy two, there were a group 60 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:10.680 of four ladies that would come into the sportsbook every 61 00:04:10.719 --> 00:04:12.319 Sunday and bet on the Dolphins to win. 62 00:04:13.199 --> 00:04:17.079 And at first We're like, hey, sweat Italian guy, can we. 63 00:04:17.079 --> 00:04:20.199 Like bet on the Dolphins to win? And the bookie 64 00:04:20.279 --> 00:04:23.560 was like, of course you can't, sweetheart. You just can 65 00:04:23.560 --> 00:04:27.079 bet on anythings you want. And after about a month 66 00:04:27.680 --> 00:04:30.639 of these ladies coming in here and bet and winning, 67 00:04:31.480 --> 00:04:35.240 the bookies got curious and nests, Hey, why you guys 68 00:04:35.240 --> 00:04:38.800 always be betting on the dolphins, And the ladies were like, 69 00:04:40.160 --> 00:04:43.279 because Monica's favorite animal is a dolphin, so like it's 70 00:04:43.279 --> 00:04:47.639 a sure thing. And to that, the bookie said, the 71 00:04:47.680 --> 00:04:51.079 only fucking sure thing is is is your assistance? Fucking 72 00:04:51.360 --> 00:04:53.759 an stick kid, Get the fuck out of here with 73 00:04:53.839 --> 00:04:58.000 that bullshit. But the ladies kept winning as the Dolphins 74 00:04:58.040 --> 00:05:02.639 went seventeen and oh that season, and eventually they got 75 00:05:02.680 --> 00:05:05.199 buried in four holes in the desert just for being 76 00:05:05.240 --> 00:05:08.839 that stupidly lucky. But the wise guys did have enough 77 00:05:08.879 --> 00:05:11.879 respect for them to rename the casino the Four Queens 78 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:12.600 in their honor. 79 00:05:12.959 --> 00:05:16.360 So all good, you know, all good, that ends good, 80 00:05:16.399 --> 00:05:16.680 long one. 81 00:05:17.560 --> 00:05:19.759 Yeah. All I heard from about the moral of that 82 00:05:19.839 --> 00:05:22.600 story that I heard was like I heard women and 83 00:05:22.680 --> 00:05:27.040 heard holes, and I connected those two dots and I 84 00:05:27.120 --> 00:05:29.839 kind of just kind of checked out from the rest 85 00:05:29.839 --> 00:05:30.519 of it. I don't know. 86 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:37.879 Oh shit, Well, boys and girls, whether your lady, whether 87 00:05:37.959 --> 00:05:40.360 you're man, we are gonna get into the podcast now. 88 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.000 We're gonna go over every game in the NFL in 89 00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:45.560 the air tonight. Give you all those men's, all those 90 00:05:45.800 --> 00:05:48.759 free picks, that you paid as always, but right now 91 00:05:49.079 --> 00:05:51.600 we have to get paid to do that. Oh, let's 92 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:54.879 talk about Texas Telehealth dot com. Whether your lady, whether 93 00:05:54.879 --> 00:05:57.800 you're a man, it doesn't matter. Going to the doctor 94 00:05:58.000 --> 00:06:02.040 fucking sucks. Gotta scheduled appointment, take time off or work 95 00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:04.720 to get there, Wait up just for an hour just 96 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:05.879 to see the fuck. 97 00:06:05.920 --> 00:06:09.160 Just to see the fucking doctor. The kid. Fuck all that. 98 00:06:10.040 --> 00:06:12.519 My good friend doctor West at Texas tele dot com 99 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:14.399 has a way to skip all that. You go to website, 100 00:06:14.399 --> 00:06:16.279 schedule appointments. 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Excuse me? 120 00:07:29.600 --> 00:07:31.879 What is happening here? What is happening? 121 00:07:32.000 --> 00:07:33.560 What the fuck just happened? 122 00:07:33.839 --> 00:07:37.120 Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for all those 123 00:07:37.199 --> 00:07:38.680 men's coming to the ads. 124 00:07:38.399 --> 00:07:39.240 And night member. 125 00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:47.920 Alright, boys and girls, it is that time to go 126 00:07:48.079 --> 00:07:49.600 over every game and. 127 00:07:49.519 --> 00:07:52.639 Then shut your mouth. Phil Callings, don't be don't be 128 00:07:52.680 --> 00:07:54.439 coming here with all your copywriting ship. 129 00:07:54.879 --> 00:07:56.399 That's right, we're gonna start. 130 00:07:56.519 --> 00:08:01.839 Oh, speaking of witch, let's let's uh, let's get a 131 00:08:01.879 --> 00:08:04.920 little bit of that right here, Bosts. 132 00:08:04.839 --> 00:08:09.839 Right, communicate some towns for me, please, I really blunt? 133 00:08:10.800 --> 00:08:16.959 You sound like, yeah, yeah, gotta get the real things sometimes. 134 00:08:19.120 --> 00:08:19.800 That's good ship. 135 00:08:20.439 --> 00:08:20.800 All right. 136 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:26.000 Those Jacksonville, those London Jacks as we all know that 137 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:31.000 they are, that this is their true home stadium over 138 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:31.720 there in London. 139 00:08:31.759 --> 00:08:33.039 They're facing those. 140 00:08:34.039 --> 00:08:39.080 The stadium Yanks, the stadium that the Jaguars built, as 141 00:08:39.120 --> 00:08:46.039 they say, over there somewhere, Yeah, that's yeah. Yeah. 142 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:50.919 So they they're facing these Yanks, these Yanks from Los Angeles. 143 00:08:51.399 --> 00:08:56.559 And let's see, they're currently three point dogs at home, 144 00:08:56.919 --> 00:08:59.159 three point basically home Kohorn. 145 00:08:59.480 --> 00:09:01.559 Now, season on this one. 146 00:09:02.799 --> 00:09:06.879 Was I had Jacksonville three point dogs. Vegas had them 147 00:09:06.879 --> 00:09:10.480 three and a half. So we're basically right in line here. 148 00:09:10.799 --> 00:09:15.200 We're still where these teams are who we thought? 149 00:09:15.840 --> 00:09:16.919 So what are you going on this one? 150 00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:21.440 Well, I don't know where's my board. I don't think 151 00:09:21.480 --> 00:09:23.879 either one of us had Jaguars winning ten games. They're 152 00:09:24.039 --> 00:09:26.480 they're kind of, they're kind I don't know yet that 153 00:09:26.519 --> 00:09:28.759 they are well we thought they were leaving that most people. 154 00:09:28.919 --> 00:09:32.759 But I will say this a lot. I like a 155 00:09:32.759 --> 00:09:34.720 lot of dogs this week, A lot of a lot 156 00:09:34.720 --> 00:09:36.399 of dogs to keep the games close, a lot of 157 00:09:36.440 --> 00:09:39.600 dogs to sneak out some wins. Having a hard time 158 00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:42.840 with this one. There's a really smart guy that I 159 00:09:42.879 --> 00:09:44.960 know once told me that you can only pick the 160 00:09:45.039 --> 00:09:49.480 Jaguars if they're gonna be able to be successful running 161 00:09:49.480 --> 00:09:54.600 the football. And of course that guy was you and 162 00:09:54.639 --> 00:09:56.639 the Rams are they're middle of the pack, at least 163 00:09:56.679 --> 00:09:58.200 the metrics that I look at, they're they're run the 164 00:09:58.240 --> 00:10:00.759 middle of the pack at stopping the run. So what 165 00:10:00.799 --> 00:10:04.240 that tells me is Jacksonville is probably a live dog here. 166 00:10:04.440 --> 00:10:07.120 I would probably lean to the three points. Certainly at 167 00:10:07.120 --> 00:10:08.879 the three I know that this. I think this line 168 00:10:08.919 --> 00:10:11.919 open at two and a half. Don't don't like that, 169 00:10:12.600 --> 00:10:14.639 although two and a half lands, you know that that's 170 00:10:14.639 --> 00:10:16.799 a key number, more of a key number than than 171 00:10:16.960 --> 00:10:19.519 has been in the past. But at three, I can 172 00:10:19.559 --> 00:10:23.080 only lean to the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I'm not sure 173 00:10:23.080 --> 00:10:24.559 about the pook. Do you know if Puka is for 174 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:29.000 sure in or out as Yeah, so there there's still 175 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:36.679 just need more information. Yeah, I think so too. So 176 00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:40.720 this is just a lean to the Jaguars at three, 177 00:10:41.480 --> 00:10:44.000 and I think they're gonna they will have some success. 178 00:10:44.080 --> 00:10:48.120 But big picture, I'm gonna stick with what with what 179 00:10:48.159 --> 00:10:50.240 I've been saying the whole time is that I don't 180 00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:52.679 think we've seen the best of Jacksonville. Even in some 181 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:57.159 of the losses, I've been somewhat impressed by the overall team. 182 00:10:57.480 --> 00:11:00.279 There's obviously friction going on between the quarterback and the 183 00:11:00.279 --> 00:11:02.840 head coach, which I love. I think this head coach, 184 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:05.960 I really like him. He's you know, we saw some 185 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:12.120 friction between We saw a friction between Jesus Ben Johnson 186 00:11:12.360 --> 00:11:15.200 and Caleb Williams. He kind of had to like break 187 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:18.480 him and like just fuck you, I'm gonna go out 188 00:11:18.519 --> 00:11:21.159 there and fail. We're seeing some of the same things 189 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:24.559 with Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence to be like, just dude, 190 00:11:25.399 --> 00:11:28.080 There's been a video of him not calling a time out, 191 00:11:28.240 --> 00:11:31.639 like when it's clearly like the quarterbacks, letting them, let 192 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:33.600 the clock drain down and get the leg game, and 193 00:11:33.600 --> 00:11:35.679 he's just stand He's literally standing there with his arms 194 00:11:35.679 --> 00:11:38.399 folded next to the ref where he could clearly call 195 00:11:38.519 --> 00:11:40.600 time out, and he's just like, you're really gonna I 196 00:11:40.600 --> 00:11:43.080 almost you're gonna fuck us off. Fuck it off. So 197 00:11:43.080 --> 00:11:44.960 it's like there's some growing pains going here, which I 198 00:11:45.039 --> 00:11:47.519 really like from a from a young rookie head coach 199 00:11:47.759 --> 00:11:50.679 to be like, dude, come on, like you're you're one 200 00:11:50.759 --> 00:11:54.720 hundred million dollars quarterback, You're the franchise quarterback. Get with it. 201 00:11:55.480 --> 00:11:58.559 So but that's big picture, a small picture in this one. 202 00:11:59.039 --> 00:12:01.000 I like Jack's plus three, but it's not one of 203 00:12:01.039 --> 00:12:03.399 my any of the sounders or anything like that. What 204 00:12:03.399 --> 00:12:05.440 do you you got agreement over there with the numbers 205 00:12:05.679 --> 00:12:08.399 was what are the big brain computers? Say bo saves? 206 00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:11.240 All right, So full transparency. 207 00:12:11.240 --> 00:12:13.480 I'm just gonna let everybody know U I did not 208 00:12:13.799 --> 00:12:18.440 get to get all my research done going to this podcast. 209 00:12:18.600 --> 00:12:20.799 So it's gonna be your best week ever in the NFL. 210 00:12:21.080 --> 00:12:24.840 Of course. I'm in the middle of a transition. 211 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:27.960 I'm getting my tests cut off and my vagina sewed 212 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:30.720 up into a penis. I'm gonna be the man that 213 00:12:30.919 --> 00:12:33.639 God always intended me to be. I feel like that's 214 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:36.759 how I feel. I just want to Everybody needs to 215 00:12:36.759 --> 00:12:39.080 support me on this, Okay, everybody needs to support me. 216 00:12:39.679 --> 00:12:41.799 And if you don't support me, you are a Nazi. 217 00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:44.159 So just don't make fun of me. Don't make fun 218 00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:44.360 of me. 219 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:46.679 As long as you keep winning. I don't really give 220 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:48.440 a fuck what you do with your private so I 221 00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:51.360 mean that's all. Just keep winning, dude, chop whatever you 222 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:52.840 want off because I don't really care. 223 00:12:54.279 --> 00:12:57.080 All right, So the power of grads grade has the 224 00:12:57.159 --> 00:12:59.639 rams here now the BBG. 225 00:12:59.720 --> 00:13:02.879 I did it through all those It's a no call 226 00:13:02.879 --> 00:13:03.279 at three. 227 00:13:03.320 --> 00:13:05.720 I've got the Rams running twenty four to twenty two, 228 00:13:06.159 --> 00:13:08.559 so that's within the margin being and no co it 229 00:13:08.679 --> 00:13:12.879 is over though the forty four and a half. Look 230 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:20.279 this should be you know, it's a raider game for Goldielocks. 231 00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:24.200 But Matthew Savage should have success in this game. He's 232 00:13:24.200 --> 00:13:27.000 plus one point through the BBG. Both running games are flat. 233 00:13:27.080 --> 00:13:29.480 You talked about the Rams running defenses. Looked at those 234 00:13:29.480 --> 00:13:32.360 stats as you're pulling them. The Rams are seventh in 235 00:13:32.399 --> 00:13:34.759 the NFL at rushing success rate on defense. 236 00:13:35.279 --> 00:13:38.480 So now I didn't break it down again. 237 00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:40.000 I have not had time to break down as far 238 00:13:40.039 --> 00:13:42.919 as that one matchup that I talked about before with 239 00:13:43.080 --> 00:13:46.360 ETN So just because of the seventh ranked you know, 240 00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:51.360 rushing success rate, doesn't that one matchup I broke down 241 00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:53.080 when I said he was not gonna have success. That 242 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:56.799 was against a twenty ninth success rate rush defense in 243 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:00.519 Kansas City. But I said, they defend the one run 244 00:14:00.639 --> 00:14:03.879 that he does that he needs very well and he 245 00:14:03.919 --> 00:14:07.600 didn't do shit in that game. So I didn't get 246 00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:09.080 down to that level. But if you just look at 247 00:14:09.080 --> 00:14:12.759 the rush scess rate seventh NFL, the Jaguars, the Longhorn, 248 00:14:13.600 --> 00:14:19.879 surprisingly enough, sprizingly enough, second best rushing success rate in 249 00:14:19.919 --> 00:14:23.159 the entire NFL. So the Rams are going to struggle 250 00:14:23.200 --> 00:14:26.960 to run the ball here. And if Pooka can't go, 251 00:14:27.559 --> 00:14:31.600 If pook can't go, you're absolutely right Rams or the 252 00:14:31.720 --> 00:14:32.679 Jaguars are alive. 253 00:14:32.720 --> 00:14:32.919 Dog. 254 00:14:33.039 --> 00:14:35.240 However, I do have one trend. I got to pull 255 00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:38.000 some trends this week. So I've got a bunch of 256 00:14:38.039 --> 00:14:40.720 guys on the BY going into the next week and 257 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:42.360 by and guys coming off the BI, and I will 258 00:14:42.399 --> 00:14:45.960 give those trends as we go. The Rams are on 259 00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:51.399 a bye going into next week, so I pulled information 260 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:56.159 from twenty eighteen. If you're in neutral sizs we're playing 261 00:14:56.320 --> 00:15:00.399 you know, the London game. Since about then we got 262 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:04.360 fourteen games in the sample size, decent sample size for 263 00:15:04.679 --> 00:15:06.000 you know, seven. 264 00:15:05.799 --> 00:15:07.120 Years, basically two games a year. 265 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:10.559 If you're going into the buy on a neutral site 266 00:15:11.159 --> 00:15:15.039 and you are the favorite twelve and two straight up, 267 00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:19.120 eleven and three ats with the average line of minus 268 00:15:19.159 --> 00:15:23.120 four with a plus three point five ats. So that's 269 00:15:23.159 --> 00:15:25.440 as you're right there, the Rams gonna win this game 270 00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:28.480 about seven points historically. 271 00:15:29.679 --> 00:15:30.879 Now I do have grade over. 272 00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:35.679 The under though, is three and eleven, so it's heavily 273 00:15:35.720 --> 00:15:38.440 graded to the under and minus seven on forty four 274 00:15:38.480 --> 00:15:41.399 point six is this total is forty four point five, 275 00:15:42.080 --> 00:15:43.320 so it tells about overs. 276 00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:44.480 Kind of bullshit. 277 00:15:45.840 --> 00:15:51.200 On that one, But this trend is heavy, heavy, heavy 278 00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:53.200 on the Rams. 279 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:53.840 To cover this game. 280 00:15:53.879 --> 00:15:55.120 Like I said, I have one in twenty four to 281 00:15:55.120 --> 00:15:59.679 twenty two, it's three points, take it or leave with 282 00:15:59.720 --> 00:16:04.159 what you want, but that it tells me it's probably gonna. 283 00:16:03.919 --> 00:16:06.200 Be a RAMS victory, probably be a RAMS cover. 284 00:16:06.919 --> 00:16:09.039 I don't I'm probably not gonna have anything on this game, 285 00:16:09.080 --> 00:16:12.240 but either way, I'm not I'm not going against a 286 00:16:12.320 --> 00:16:12.840 seventy eight. 287 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:14.679 Point six percent trend. I'm not doing that. I'm not 288 00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:17.000 betting the Jaguars at all. I can promise you that. 289 00:16:17.879 --> 00:16:21.679 Yeah, and I'm not eager to bet Jacksonville either. But 290 00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:26.600 i will say this on pick EM's and against the 291 00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:30.600 spread contests and all that that you're in, it's kind 292 00:16:30.600 --> 00:16:33.000 of depending on what number you get. Some needs contest 293 00:16:33.080 --> 00:16:35.519 lock in early, some of them locking late. If I've 294 00:16:35.519 --> 00:16:37.519 got a contest lock in against the spread that you 295 00:16:37.559 --> 00:16:39.559 have to pick every single game, and I'm getting a 296 00:16:39.600 --> 00:16:42.879 two and a half with the Rams probably taking that 297 00:16:43.200 --> 00:16:43.919 probably taking that. 298 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:51.200 Like I said, again, the Acs eleven and three plus 299 00:16:51.240 --> 00:16:53.600 three point five on an average line of minus four, 300 00:16:53.720 --> 00:16:56.159 we're sending it three. So they've been this game by 301 00:16:56.279 --> 00:16:59.480 seven and a half points at a seventy eight point 302 00:16:59.480 --> 00:17:00.759 six percent clip. 303 00:17:02.200 --> 00:17:03.799 For our trend line and our history. 304 00:17:03.879 --> 00:17:08.119 So again, you don't have to bet with every trend, 305 00:17:08.519 --> 00:17:11.440 but you don't bet against those kinds of trends, especially 306 00:17:11.559 --> 00:17:16.680 they're this specific neutral site and you're the favorite right 307 00:17:16.720 --> 00:17:20.680 before bye, you're on vacation, you're about to go on vacation, 308 00:17:20.960 --> 00:17:24.880 you're living life high like the you just don't go 309 00:17:24.920 --> 00:17:25.319 against that. 310 00:17:25.359 --> 00:17:28.599 You don't know the Rams are on the buy next week, Yes, sir? 311 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.720 Yeahs not playing then? I mean like he hasn't he 312 00:17:32.720 --> 00:17:35.039 hasn't practiced all week. And if they're on a buye then. 313 00:17:35.640 --> 00:17:38.440 Why by And they're already they're already projected to win, 314 00:17:38.640 --> 00:17:42.480 so him not to play it maybe that's what cous 315 00:17:42.559 --> 00:17:45.480 them not to win by margin. However, like I said, 316 00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:48.880 if Jacksonville struggles run the ball, which they are project 317 00:17:48.920 --> 00:17:51.559 they're projected to run the extra ball flat, so they're 318 00:17:51.559 --> 00:17:54.319 projected to get their normal amount of points through the 319 00:17:54.359 --> 00:17:55.920 BBG through the running game. 320 00:17:55.920 --> 00:17:56.960 But so are the Rams. 321 00:17:57.200 --> 00:18:00.000 But Stafford is projected to have a very very good 322 00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:01.759 game in this game. 323 00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:04.440 And that should be the difference. What would get the 324 00:18:04.519 --> 00:18:06.240 Rams the win and the cover here? 325 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:08.920 All right? I don't want to spend too much time 326 00:18:08.960 --> 00:18:11.039 on on a on a game that doesn't sound like 327 00:18:11.079 --> 00:18:14.680 he's the one of us love a lot. So Oh 328 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:17.480 my god, Flacco just ran like ten yard. But take 329 00:18:17.519 --> 00:18:21.240 the over Flacco rush yards for ten in one play. 330 00:18:21.319 --> 00:18:25.240 You just cast that fucking team. How does a forty 331 00:18:25.319 --> 00:18:27.720 nine year old run ten yards all getting tackled the 332 00:18:27.759 --> 00:18:30.359 NF not not just tackled, decapitated in the NFL. I 333 00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:33.640 don't know. I just saw it, though it happened under. 334 00:18:33.480 --> 00:18:37.400 I guarantee you on fucking like a draft game. Was 335 00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:38.119 half a yard? 336 00:18:38.680 --> 00:18:42.599 Oh my god, Tolman just looked like he had the 337 00:18:42.759 --> 00:18:45.680 What the fuck just happened? What is wrong with my 338 00:18:45.799 --> 00:18:51.000 goddamn defense? Yes, he he might kill somebody to this game, 339 00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:53.559 because they're working on giving up thirty plus points to 340 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:57.680 the Bengals with a really good defense. In theory to 341 00:18:57.880 --> 00:19:01.519 Joe motherfucking Flacco after he just told everybody, what fuck 342 00:19:01.599 --> 00:19:05.799 you trade in Division A starter week one to your 343 00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:09.559 goddamn division rival Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals. They 344 00:19:09.559 --> 00:19:13.759 are they're the stepsisters of this division, and they're in kohoots. 345 00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:17.400 They're in coddamn kohoots against those fucking Pittsburgh Steelers and 346 00:19:17.559 --> 00:19:20.000 Baltimore Rates. I'm telling you, like they like they just 347 00:19:20.039 --> 00:19:22.480 build a team up. Hey, how can one of us? 348 00:19:22.680 --> 00:19:25.880 How does one of us beat the bullies? You want, 349 00:19:25.920 --> 00:19:28.039 you want flac oh, We'll give you flac oh. Just 350 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:30.000 just I don't care. I'm gonna shit, go go go 351 00:19:30.119 --> 00:19:32.359 beat them. 352 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:34.680 No, this is a true story. We were in the 353 00:19:34.799 --> 00:19:39.759 draft in Cleveland. We asked there was Cleveland brown fans 354 00:19:39.799 --> 00:19:44.160 buying us shots the Cincinnati fans standing right behind us, 355 00:19:44.279 --> 00:19:47.240 and we said, hey, you hate this guy. He's like, 356 00:19:47.480 --> 00:19:50.599 I don't this fun guy hat. He's like, we hate 357 00:19:50.640 --> 00:19:53.599 those fucking guys. And they literally all that and the 358 00:19:53.680 --> 00:19:56.160 dude behind them all point of the fucking Steelers fans. 359 00:19:56.559 --> 00:20:00.799 Ye hate these guys like they all hate the Steelers. 360 00:20:01.119 --> 00:20:04.079 So Miss Slippy. The part of the story that I 361 00:20:04.200 --> 00:20:06.039 like the most is that when you're talking about all 362 00:20:06.039 --> 00:20:08.119 the shots that they were by because these motherfuckers on 363 00:20:08.160 --> 00:20:12.640 the East Coast, Oh my god, drink. Taking a shot 364 00:20:12.680 --> 00:20:14.599 to them is just like, hey, you want to you 365 00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:17.079 want some water, you need you need a bottle of water. 366 00:20:17.279 --> 00:20:19.000 That to them, you need a bottle of water? Is 367 00:20:19.039 --> 00:20:21.799 would you like a shot of tequila? It's it's or that. 368 00:20:21.799 --> 00:20:24.400 That's it's what it is to them. God damn it. 369 00:20:24.480 --> 00:20:26.319 They drink a lot. They do. 370 00:20:26.440 --> 00:20:27.839 It's like a sport up there. 371 00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:34.000 Let's move on to those New York jay t They're 372 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.920 holding those Carolina Panthers. 373 00:20:36.400 --> 00:20:41.079 All right preseason on this one. Let's see, I had 374 00:20:42.720 --> 00:20:48.119 Carolina minus two. Uh they said the Jets minus more 375 00:20:48.119 --> 00:20:48.680 and a half. 376 00:20:49.759 --> 00:20:54.279 They were currently setting at Carolina minus one and a half. 377 00:20:55.599 --> 00:21:01.839 So I was Carolina minus one one and a half. Uh, 378 00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:05.599 So I was a lot closer to the Vegas was 379 00:21:05.640 --> 00:21:09.119 on this one. So long one, What are you gonna? 380 00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:12.359 What do I What do I have on the Carolina 381 00:21:12.440 --> 00:21:14.839 versus Jets game? Let me say, so, this is gonna 382 00:21:14.839 --> 00:21:17.079 be the game that I cannot take my eyes off for. 383 00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:19.519 They're all the wrong reasons like this is this is 384 00:21:19.599 --> 00:21:23.960 a train wreck, car crash casualties everywhere that I just 385 00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:29.319 cannot wait to watch. Uh Carolina. I was higher on 386 00:21:29.319 --> 00:21:31.720 Carolina than than almost anybody I know actually coming in 387 00:21:31.759 --> 00:21:33.119 the season. This has been two years in a row. 388 00:21:33.400 --> 00:21:36.000 I've got them winning, can bear spon board. I think 389 00:21:36.000 --> 00:21:40.759 it was seven games, maybe eight, and they're three and three. Well, 390 00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:44.039 but they're three and three. Now here's the deal, though, 391 00:21:44.480 --> 00:21:47.240 like I got, I got you pegged Carolina and not 392 00:21:47.319 --> 00:21:49.400 that kind of peg, the other kind of pegged, like 393 00:21:49.720 --> 00:21:52.039 you are great, They're they're doing the they're doing the 394 00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:57.000 Cleveland thing. Good at home, trash on the road, unbettable 395 00:21:57.000 --> 00:21:59.079 on the road. But here's the problem. They're betting a 396 00:21:59.119 --> 00:22:03.640 team that's on betable anywhere you cannot bet on on 397 00:22:03.680 --> 00:22:06.200 the on the Jets. The Jets are the new Titans 398 00:22:06.440 --> 00:22:09.200 from the whole last year and a half before. They 399 00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:12.279 just fired their coach. So now the new Titans where 400 00:22:12.319 --> 00:22:14.440 you can't bet on them bet on them is the Jets. 401 00:22:15.240 --> 00:22:17.960 Can't win with them, can't bet on them. That's that's it. 402 00:22:18.799 --> 00:22:20.599 That's the Aaron Glenn, this is what you get when 403 00:22:20.640 --> 00:22:23.000 you do de I just I don't know what to 404 00:22:23.000 --> 00:22:25.799 tell you. It's it's and this isn't like recency bias. 405 00:22:25.839 --> 00:22:28.599 I've been saying this since the summer. He sucks. He 406 00:22:28.680 --> 00:22:33.039 got promoted for for reasons I do not know. Someone can, 407 00:22:33.079 --> 00:22:35.759 maybe maybe someone can, really someone smarter than me, can 408 00:22:35.759 --> 00:22:37.799 explain to me how he got that job and and 409 00:22:37.880 --> 00:22:41.680 what he did, you know on the field as a coach, 410 00:22:41.920 --> 00:22:44.279 that that gave him a job. But in this situation, 411 00:22:44.480 --> 00:22:47.720 I got to I got a movable object versus you know, 412 00:22:47.759 --> 00:22:51.079 irresistible force. Which one do you go with? And as 413 00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:58.160 ugly and disgusting as it is, the Jets somehow when 414 00:22:58.400 --> 00:23:00.279 the tug of war of the ship, that they win 415 00:23:00.319 --> 00:23:02.640 the shit tug of war for me, I guess just 416 00:23:02.640 --> 00:23:05.319 because they're at home, and because at some point are 417 00:23:05.319 --> 00:23:07.799 they gonna go O seventeen? I don't know. I mean, 418 00:23:07.839 --> 00:23:09.880 if they're gonna get a win, maybe it's here against 419 00:23:09.880 --> 00:23:12.279 a team it's that's terrible on the road. I hate 420 00:23:12.319 --> 00:23:14.519 this pick. It's not a sounder, it's not a it's 421 00:23:14.559 --> 00:23:17.920 not a it's not anything except I have to pick somebody. 422 00:23:18.039 --> 00:23:20.839 So give me the Jets, and and you know it's 423 00:23:20.839 --> 00:23:23.039 a win win bo steem because if they lose then 424 00:23:23.160 --> 00:23:26.440 I get to stay on my airing. Glynn is the 425 00:23:26.440 --> 00:23:30.559 worst hire of all time at minus Callahan for Callahan 426 00:23:30.599 --> 00:23:33.240 and Callahan for Tennessee. 427 00:23:34.279 --> 00:23:38.400 All right, So I haven't again full transfers have not 428 00:23:38.440 --> 00:23:41.680 done my full board yet. However, early on, this is 429 00:23:41.720 --> 00:23:42.880 one of my favorite bets of the week. 430 00:23:44.519 --> 00:23:46.440 Power is on with the Jets. 431 00:23:46.759 --> 00:23:48.000 The Jets are your favorite bet. 432 00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:50.519 It is one of my favorite bets of the week. 433 00:23:50.799 --> 00:23:52.960 Okay, so powering is on the Jets. 434 00:23:53.119 --> 00:23:55.319 I've got the Jets winning through the VBG twenty four 435 00:23:55.359 --> 00:23:59.519 to twenty. That's over the forty two home match. 436 00:24:01.519 --> 00:24:03.880 He's gonna be what he is. You know, he sucks. 437 00:24:04.119 --> 00:24:05.240 It's actually a decent matchup. 438 00:24:05.279 --> 00:24:07.720 Bradshawing games a half a point to the VPG. However, 439 00:24:08.200 --> 00:24:09.480 here's where the rub comes in. 440 00:24:09.960 --> 00:24:14.160 This should be this should be the best running game 441 00:24:14.319 --> 00:24:17.559 the Jets have for the entire season. So if you 442 00:24:17.640 --> 00:24:20.440 have what's Longhorn, what's the guy's name, the running back 443 00:24:20.480 --> 00:24:23.039 for the Jets, brisall, yeah, Brisaw. 444 00:24:22.680 --> 00:24:25.240 On your fantasy team, if you're on daily fantasy, if 445 00:24:25.279 --> 00:24:27.880 you do any of that shit, put your money on 446 00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:32.039 this guy. He should have a fucking great game here 447 00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:34.680 against this Carolina defense, with the scheme of the Jets 448 00:24:34.720 --> 00:24:40.000 run versus what Carolina does on defense, he should be really, really, 449 00:24:40.039 --> 00:24:43.920 really good. Regal Dalla has been a revelation for the 450 00:24:44.160 --> 00:24:48.240 for the Panthers. However, he grades out flat here versus 451 00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:50.880 what the defense gives up. So in other words, what 452 00:24:50.880 --> 00:24:53.440 that tols you is he should be around his market price. 453 00:24:54.759 --> 00:24:57.720 It doesn't mean well, Cheeper Hubbard, Cuber Hubbard is probably 454 00:24:57.720 --> 00:25:00.279 playing this week. So it's gonna be a dual threat 455 00:25:00.319 --> 00:25:03.000 running back for Carolina, for whatever that's worth. 456 00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:05.960 They should probably make it a single threat because fucking 457 00:25:06.039 --> 00:25:08.160 Rigo has been killing but whatever. 458 00:25:08.680 --> 00:25:10.839 I'm not a coach. I don't know who is better 459 00:25:10.920 --> 00:25:11.359 or whatever. 460 00:25:12.319 --> 00:25:14.920 But either way, what they run versus what the Jets do, 461 00:25:15.319 --> 00:25:18.880 it should come out about what their normal productivity is. 462 00:25:19.880 --> 00:25:23.319 So I've got that, I've got the Jets winning this 463 00:25:23.440 --> 00:25:25.079 game by four points, and. 464 00:25:25.119 --> 00:25:25.839 I've got this. 465 00:25:26.400 --> 00:25:28.160 You know what, fuck it, I'm gonna make this the 466 00:25:28.759 --> 00:25:31.720 it's gonna be the numbers get picked the wikis. I 467 00:25:31.799 --> 00:25:36.480 got a nice trend on this one, and I'm gonna 468 00:25:36.480 --> 00:25:41.200 start that over because because we didn't hear it, I got. 469 00:25:41.079 --> 00:25:43.680 The volume down. Why would I have the volume off? 470 00:25:43.720 --> 00:25:52.319 I want you to fucking nerd with your nerd, yeah me, 471 00:25:52.480 --> 00:25:54.079 my nerd hair. All right, here we go. 472 00:25:54.519 --> 00:25:57.519 Since and I had to go back to two thousand, 473 00:25:58.400 --> 00:26:02.920 yeah two just to get some just to get a 474 00:26:02.920 --> 00:26:05.240 few games into this, and then the dog get into 475 00:26:05.240 --> 00:26:07.240 this trend for a while. So the reason why I 476 00:26:07.240 --> 00:26:12.279 went back this far week seven, you literally have a 477 00:26:12.920 --> 00:26:15.200 zero percent winning percentage. You're own six. 478 00:26:16.039 --> 00:26:18.039 You're the dog, y'are the. 479 00:26:19.519 --> 00:26:23.039 And the line is three or less two and one 480 00:26:23.480 --> 00:26:29.200 straight up two and one ats all time average line 481 00:26:29.240 --> 00:26:32.440 two point two. Look, this is just one of those. 482 00:26:32.680 --> 00:26:34.400 And I've called this several times. 483 00:26:34.839 --> 00:26:36.960 I mean, we've been long horn, We're doing this for 484 00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:37.599 a long time. 485 00:26:38.160 --> 00:26:41.480 There's been several moments, even with teams I hate, like 486 00:26:41.519 --> 00:26:43.480 the Jets, I've got the under I called this a 487 00:26:43.519 --> 00:26:44.240 couple of years. 488 00:26:44.039 --> 00:26:47.559 Ago in Carolina. I actually called both. They won two games. 489 00:26:47.559 --> 00:26:48.240 I called them both. 490 00:26:48.920 --> 00:26:52.119 And it's just one of those burned the boat's moments. So, 491 00:26:52.440 --> 00:26:57.240 either this team decides to play for your boy Aaron 492 00:26:57.240 --> 00:27:01.240 Glenn this Sunday, or he's fired. 493 00:27:02.720 --> 00:27:06.039 No, he won't be fine. Now that that's where Okay. 494 00:27:05.759 --> 00:27:09.000 Yeah, fired on Sunday, but he's fired at the end 495 00:27:09.000 --> 00:27:10.920 of the year if they don't win this game. This 496 00:27:11.000 --> 00:27:14.680 is one of those burned the boats moments. Like you said, 497 00:27:15.000 --> 00:27:17.640 they're not gonna go oh to seventeen. 498 00:27:17.720 --> 00:27:19.160 Most likely probably not. 499 00:27:19.519 --> 00:27:21.839 This is the game. This is the game. 500 00:27:22.079 --> 00:27:27.680 They have a strategical matchup advantage here. Field should be fun, 501 00:27:27.960 --> 00:27:28.720 not great. 502 00:27:28.480 --> 00:27:28.960 But fun. 503 00:27:29.720 --> 00:27:32.359 Well is it? Is it gonna be filled? There's there's 504 00:27:32.480 --> 00:27:34.359 murmurs of Tyrod Taylor. 505 00:27:34.839 --> 00:27:35.559 Maybe I. 506 00:27:37.039 --> 00:27:41.880 Actually actually I would I prefer Tyrod Taylor. Jesus Christ, 507 00:27:43.319 --> 00:27:44.400 please put him in. 508 00:27:44.880 --> 00:27:46.400 But either way they should be able to run the 509 00:27:46.400 --> 00:27:48.920 ball very very well in this game. Control the fucking game, 510 00:27:49.000 --> 00:27:52.720 control the fucking clock. This this has got to be 511 00:27:52.759 --> 00:27:54.519 the game They're gonna win again. This has to be 512 00:27:54.519 --> 00:27:58.480 the game Jets win. Jets covered. This is one of 513 00:27:58.519 --> 00:28:00.319 my favorite bets of the week. Again, I haven't maybe 514 00:28:00.319 --> 00:28:02.519 and officially because I don't have on my data in yet, 515 00:28:02.799 --> 00:28:04.920 but as I've looked at it so far, this is 516 00:28:05.000 --> 00:28:07.160 literally my favorite bet of the entire week. 517 00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:10.839 Jets. Yeah. Some of the some of the talking points 518 00:28:10.880 --> 00:28:13.319 on Justin Fields this week coming out of locker room 519 00:28:13.319 --> 00:28:16.920 has been something along the lines of this or something. 520 00:28:17.480 --> 00:28:20.359 Yeah that's that. I mean, that's you know, I'm confirmed, 521 00:28:20.400 --> 00:28:22.680 but I think that's along along those lines. 522 00:28:23.160 --> 00:28:27.640 I also heard this baptized laughing. That's what he's been. 523 00:28:27.519 --> 00:28:30.799 Doing, been doing anything but getting first downs? 524 00:28:31.599 --> 00:28:32.519 Oh I God, so bad. 525 00:28:32.799 --> 00:28:36.200 All right, let's move on to those Kansas City Chiefs. 526 00:28:36.799 --> 00:28:40.759 Oh as they start their march touch another World Championship Longhorn. 527 00:28:41.200 --> 00:28:48.559 Nope, nope, they're hosting are Lost Vegas ratest. Good lord, 528 00:28:48.880 --> 00:28:49.400 the line of. 529 00:28:49.440 --> 00:28:52.519 I can't wait to see what I had on this one. Okay, 530 00:28:52.559 --> 00:28:54.920 this is so gross. Like I knew it was so wrong. 531 00:28:55.200 --> 00:28:58.799 I had Kansas City minus seven, Vegas had a minus 532 00:28:58.839 --> 00:29:02.000 nine and a half. There's get eleven and a half 533 00:29:02.759 --> 00:29:09.160 points now favored Stros enough because well, you know, we 534 00:29:09.400 --> 00:29:10.519 just powerings throughout the year. 535 00:29:10.599 --> 00:29:12.039 This is an call about the powering. 536 00:29:12.240 --> 00:29:15.640 So the numbers fair to me along one of the 537 00:29:15.640 --> 00:29:21.359 BBG just says otherwise, but I've also have more data. Look, 538 00:29:21.480 --> 00:29:25.519 this is one of those games where it's a hold 539 00:29:25.559 --> 00:29:27.640 your nose game if you're gonna go for the Raiders 540 00:29:27.720 --> 00:29:28.319 for store. 541 00:29:28.839 --> 00:29:32.200 Oh yeah, but what do you yeah? I mean like 542 00:29:33.359 --> 00:29:35.480 this this is your first day on the job, of course, 543 00:29:35.640 --> 00:29:39.240 like this, this is a you have to take Vegas 544 00:29:39.599 --> 00:29:42.200 in this spot. This is just like we've we've cashed 545 00:29:42.200 --> 00:29:45.319 this ticket several times through the years. Like this is 546 00:29:45.400 --> 00:29:48.240 just a must play if you're going to bet, if 547 00:29:48.240 --> 00:29:51.880 you're gonna be a football or professional football better. And 548 00:29:52.000 --> 00:29:55.559 certainly if you're gonna do a you know, a handicapping podcast, 549 00:29:56.559 --> 00:29:58.720 like you can't come out and say, yeah, I think 550 00:29:58.799 --> 00:30:01.319 I think Case lay the point like that. That's the 551 00:30:01.400 --> 00:30:04.279 fucking dumbest thing in the world. This is a must 552 00:30:04.440 --> 00:30:09.680 play on Vegas. Mahomes does not cover these big lines historically. 553 00:30:09.720 --> 00:30:12.680 That's number one. Mahomes as a favorite. We've talked, I've 554 00:30:12.680 --> 00:30:17.000 talked about for so many years now that Mahomes as 555 00:30:17.039 --> 00:30:21.200 a small favorite under three or a dog is his 556 00:30:21.319 --> 00:30:23.599 smash spot. You get over three, and we had one 557 00:30:23.640 --> 00:30:26.640 of those last week, like last week against Detroit, small 558 00:30:26.640 --> 00:30:29.319 favorite at home. That's just that's just his that's just 559 00:30:29.400 --> 00:30:35.240 his spot, man. And well we can always we can 560 00:30:35.279 --> 00:30:37.240 always get drunk and talk about all the fucking is 561 00:30:37.279 --> 00:30:38.799 of this and that and this and that, but he 562 00:30:38.839 --> 00:30:40.599 always comes out on the on the right side. 563 00:30:40.599 --> 00:30:49.559 That the fact that there was no real motion violation. 564 00:30:49.400 --> 00:30:52.480 Oh my god, we're gonna talk about they get the calls. 565 00:30:52.519 --> 00:30:57.440 They're the best team, just like the Cowboys in the nineties, 566 00:30:57.440 --> 00:31:00.680 like the Patriots in the odds. This is the way 567 00:31:00.759 --> 00:31:02.839 it goes when you're the best team. 568 00:31:02.720 --> 00:31:06.720 But you can't get like a fake motion call, I 569 00:31:06.720 --> 00:31:07.640 can I get, I get the. 570 00:31:07.599 --> 00:31:09.960 Whole Are you telling me the call in the first quarter? Yes, 571 00:31:10.000 --> 00:31:13.359 the first okay, really come on, But that means that 572 00:31:13.519 --> 00:31:16.119 changed the whole fucking game. They changed the whole change 573 00:31:16.359 --> 00:31:19.119 which I mean there was, there was fifty eight minutes 574 00:31:19.119 --> 00:31:20.759 you have to play with that changed everything. 575 00:31:21.160 --> 00:31:23.799 Okay, Like you're gonna pretend like one fucking call doesn't 576 00:31:23.839 --> 00:31:26.559 say you fucking nobody, you fucking know better. When you're 577 00:31:26.599 --> 00:31:29.720 on the road facing the fucking champs and you go 578 00:31:29.839 --> 00:31:32.839 up seven to nothing versus three to you know that 579 00:31:32.920 --> 00:31:33.839 changes the game. 580 00:31:34.920 --> 00:31:36.799 Look, I know you got to pick on them, so well, 581 00:31:36.839 --> 00:31:38.759 I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna go 582 00:31:38.799 --> 00:31:40.519 hard on you know that I do. 583 00:31:41.000 --> 00:31:42.839 If you're on my side on that, you would say 584 00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:46.920 the same fucking thing. Well, wind of call changes the 585 00:31:46.960 --> 00:31:49.559 whole fucking dynamic of that game. 586 00:31:49.960 --> 00:31:52.119 I would say, yes, But didn't Detroit have the lead 587 00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:52.559 after that? 588 00:31:53.440 --> 00:31:54.240 No they didn't. 589 00:31:54.359 --> 00:31:56.920 They never got the lead. I'll go back and check 590 00:31:56.960 --> 00:31:59.720 the boss if you if they never had the lead, 591 00:31:59.759 --> 00:32:02.319 then I will I will agree with you. But I 592 00:32:02.359 --> 00:32:04.319 think they had the lead in that game, which throws 593 00:32:04.359 --> 00:32:05.799 that all out the winter because once you had the lead, 594 00:32:05.839 --> 00:32:09.960 you got the lead. How fuck yeah? Since is about 595 00:32:09.960 --> 00:32:11.079 to win this game, by the way, with the men 596 00:32:11.119 --> 00:32:13.000 and a half left and there and inside the ten, 597 00:32:14.680 --> 00:32:16.400 they came back and scored through the lead. Now, since 598 00:32:16.400 --> 00:32:18.480 he's about to fucking just say fuck you, we were 599 00:32:18.519 --> 00:32:21.079 taking this one. It's the week of the dogs, baby, 600 00:32:21.279 --> 00:32:23.839 it's the wig of the dogs. We're winning some games 601 00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:27.480 out right, but not in this one. Not Vegas ain't 602 00:32:27.519 --> 00:32:30.279 winning out right, They're not doing that. But yeah, of 603 00:32:30.279 --> 00:32:33.440 course I'm on Vegas just to finish out. 604 00:32:33.519 --> 00:32:37.359 So the Lions, they're losing six to three at the 605 00:32:37.359 --> 00:32:40.400 first quarter, they were losing thirteen to ten out of 606 00:32:40.400 --> 00:32:43.160 the second quarter, twenty ten out of the third quarter, 607 00:32:43.480 --> 00:32:44.960 and thirty seventeen finals. 608 00:32:44.960 --> 00:32:46.480 So no, they never, they never. 609 00:32:46.519 --> 00:32:48.039 But they would have been up seven to six as 610 00:32:48.119 --> 00:32:52.839 the first quarter, fourteen to thirteen after at halftime, if 611 00:32:52.880 --> 00:32:54.680 all the if all the scoring, just say the same, 612 00:32:55.440 --> 00:32:59.680 fair enough, just because you had the other fucking side. 613 00:33:00.359 --> 00:33:02.759 No, I've been No, that's a spot that I always 614 00:33:02.759 --> 00:33:05.519 a mahomes. This is not just that's that's a spot. 615 00:33:06.000 --> 00:33:08.240 I'm not saying that. You Yes, I'm not saying that. 616 00:33:08.319 --> 00:33:11.920 All I'm saying is that one call changed the dynamic 617 00:33:12.079 --> 00:33:15.240 of that fucking game, and it was a bullshit no 618 00:33:15.920 --> 00:33:18.279 again the whole thing, the passing Affearce. 619 00:33:18.400 --> 00:33:20.400 I know they're gonna get that. I know they're gonna 620 00:33:20.400 --> 00:33:21.519 get those calls. 621 00:33:21.839 --> 00:33:25.759 That call was which was it or was it the 622 00:33:25.839 --> 00:33:28.279 actual rules? And and he re knew it and and 623 00:33:28.680 --> 00:33:29.240 called it out? 624 00:33:30.000 --> 00:33:33.920 He didn't call it out, New York fucking sit down 625 00:33:33.960 --> 00:33:34.799 a fucking review. 626 00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:37.359 It's it's been a whole controversy. 627 00:33:36.720 --> 00:33:41.960 All right, fair enough, fair enough. So I can't wait 628 00:33:42.000 --> 00:33:44.480 to see how AI decides how to cut up this 629 00:33:44.519 --> 00:33:49.319 conversation between half talking about about cac and Vegas and 630 00:33:49.359 --> 00:33:52.200 half talking about Casey, Like figure this one out. Let's 631 00:33:52.240 --> 00:33:54.160 tell smart you are AI? Can you figure out this 632 00:33:54.200 --> 00:33:56.559 cut up? And this and this chop job? So back 633 00:33:56.599 --> 00:34:01.240 on this game, mahomes as a favorite, however, as a 634 00:34:01.240 --> 00:34:03.839 favorite of seven and more, there's a lot of trends 635 00:34:03.920 --> 00:34:06.000 and a lot of things that I saw throughout the 636 00:34:06.000 --> 00:34:09.320 week that tells me to take Vegas. But I'm gonna 637 00:34:09.320 --> 00:34:11.679 pull this one because I just love this one so much. 638 00:34:12.599 --> 00:34:14.400 As a favorite of seven and more. My homes is 639 00:34:14.440 --> 00:34:17.760 thirty six and two straight up. That's great, right, here's 640 00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:21.519 a problem. Those two losses. There's a Vegas so like 641 00:34:21.960 --> 00:34:24.280 this is his kind of and we and we've we've 642 00:34:24.280 --> 00:34:28.719 seen this and and go favorite seven more. Yeah he yeah, 643 00:34:28.760 --> 00:34:31.440 he wins these games. He just doesn't cover. But it's 644 00:34:31.480 --> 00:34:33.760 just interesting that the two losses he has are against 645 00:34:33.760 --> 00:34:38.599 this Vegas team. Now the offensive tackle shuffle that's going 646 00:34:38.639 --> 00:34:42.239 on with with Kansas City because the rookie that they 647 00:34:42.280 --> 00:34:46.400 have who's played pretty pretty pretty well pretty okay, uh, 648 00:34:46.480 --> 00:34:48.119 he he got hurt. I don't know if he's coming 649 00:34:48.159 --> 00:34:50.199 back this week, but they got they got a decent 650 00:34:50.280 --> 00:34:53.719 backup that they signed from San Francisco as a kind of. 651 00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:56.800 Almost killed somebody this week too. 652 00:34:57.239 --> 00:34:58.800 Yeah, they got, they got. I don't I don't really 653 00:34:58.840 --> 00:35:01.719 care about that. He's coming off a blown out knee 654 00:35:01.880 --> 00:35:04.880 or whatever it was and a felony. So like, I mean, 655 00:35:05.039 --> 00:35:07.320 I'm sure he'll work his way in and be fine eventually. 656 00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:10.360 I don't expect a whole lot from him week one. 657 00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:16.079 We'll see though. But but there's a game wrecker, a 658 00:35:16.159 --> 00:35:20.199 true game record like TJ. Watt in his prime, top 659 00:35:20.360 --> 00:35:22.960 type game wrecker for the for Vegas, and that's that's 660 00:35:22.960 --> 00:35:25.559 Max Crosby. He can just he can literally just and 661 00:35:25.679 --> 00:35:29.039 we've seen him in these matchups almost win the game 662 00:35:29.039 --> 00:35:32.599 by himself. So yeah, I'm on Vegas plus the points. 663 00:35:32.639 --> 00:35:35.119 I'm I was kind of hoping to get it up 664 00:35:35.119 --> 00:35:37.679 to thirteen. It looks like it's getting bought back down 665 00:35:37.719 --> 00:35:38.880 and it's going the other way. I don't I don't 666 00:35:38.880 --> 00:35:42.679 think I'm gonna get up to the thirteen. I don't 667 00:35:42.679 --> 00:35:44.559 know most obviously, if you've got the if you've got 668 00:35:44.559 --> 00:35:47.480 the which way this line's going. But it appears that 669 00:35:47.519 --> 00:35:49.840 it's it's peaking at twelve twelve and a half, So. 670 00:35:50.320 --> 00:35:53.239 Yeah, money coming back in on Vegas now plus four, 671 00:35:53.960 --> 00:35:58.840 so probably we've seen this off the market, So UH. 672 00:36:00.400 --> 00:36:05.639 Agrees with you. So we got it's. 673 00:36:05.519 --> 00:36:08.960 Actually a no call about power racking because I had 674 00:36:09.000 --> 00:36:13.280 to upgrade Kansas City pretty significantly over what I was 675 00:36:13.280 --> 00:36:15.440 in the last two weeks because their offense appears to 676 00:36:15.480 --> 00:36:15.760 be back. 677 00:36:15.800 --> 00:36:17.079 They're scoring thirty points a game. 678 00:36:17.119 --> 00:36:21.760 Again, my homes look like mahomes and Vegas. I mean, dude, 679 00:36:21.800 --> 00:36:25.679 Gino just can't fucking figure it out. However, if you 680 00:36:25.719 --> 00:36:29.559 go all the way through the VBG, unbelievably, it has 681 00:36:29.639 --> 00:36:31.840 Kansas City win this game twenty three twenty two, so 682 00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:36.079 one point game and mostly because it's not a great 683 00:36:36.079 --> 00:36:39.800 matchup for Mahomes versus Stevens. He grades up flat minus 684 00:36:39.800 --> 00:36:43.920 half a point for Gino though, but both running games. 685 00:36:43.639 --> 00:36:48.599 Great out is flat. So if if Vegas. 686 00:36:48.199 --> 00:36:52.079 Can somehow spark the running game, that will give them 687 00:36:52.119 --> 00:36:54.199 advantage there. And again I'm only going over the numbers 688 00:36:54.199 --> 00:36:54.639 that I have. 689 00:36:56.360 --> 00:36:59.960 It. It hasn't worked with gent so far this year. 690 00:37:00.079 --> 00:37:02.719 I mean, his literally every yard he gains is after 691 00:37:02.800 --> 00:37:03.920 contact and long horn. 692 00:37:04.000 --> 00:37:05.519 You you go through all. 693 00:37:05.480 --> 00:37:08.440 The grades of the PFF scores of the fucking offensive line. 694 00:37:08.559 --> 00:37:10.000 You study that shit like a mad man. 695 00:37:10.800 --> 00:37:13.960 They don't run block worth a fuck like he just 696 00:37:14.079 --> 00:37:16.039 like if you just watch the games, every time he 697 00:37:16.079 --> 00:37:19.800 hits the ball, he gets hit immediately and literally every 698 00:37:19.960 --> 00:37:23.119 yard he gains is after contact. And that's just that's 699 00:37:23.159 --> 00:37:26.239 not recipes for success for running game. You have to 700 00:37:26.280 --> 00:37:27.159 give these guys holes. 701 00:37:27.159 --> 00:37:29.199 You're gonna give him a fucking chance to get started. 702 00:37:29.440 --> 00:37:31.719 And he's telling me do he does good things because 703 00:37:31.880 --> 00:37:34.800 that's what he is, but they just don't fucking do it. 704 00:37:35.239 --> 00:37:37.400 And this Kansas City defense is bad again as it's 705 00:37:37.480 --> 00:37:42.320 been against the run. This Vegas offense has been shitty 706 00:37:42.800 --> 00:37:46.280 running the fucking football. Now, it's where I've since I 707 00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:48.480 started the BBG. This is where I've seen these numbers. 708 00:37:48.960 --> 00:37:53.079 There's a possibility of flip here where you know, just 709 00:37:53.119 --> 00:37:53.960 because of the matchup. 710 00:37:53.960 --> 00:37:56.800 Me is I haven't been able to dig in just 711 00:37:56.840 --> 00:37:57.760 because of the matchup. 712 00:37:58.679 --> 00:38:02.159 Maybe Vegas can some lanes here against a very poorest 713 00:38:02.159 --> 00:38:04.559 defense against the run. It's Kansase has been all year, 714 00:38:05.360 --> 00:38:07.519 and I think that's the avenue that they're gonna have 715 00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:08.440 if they're gonna. 716 00:38:08.280 --> 00:38:09.199 Keep this game close. 717 00:38:09.440 --> 00:38:11.920 That's it, other than the fact that Kansase, like you said, 718 00:38:11.960 --> 00:38:13.000 just likes to play with their food. 719 00:38:13.639 --> 00:38:15.800 Now, what you do have working against. 720 00:38:15.559 --> 00:38:19.960 You on your Vegas pick here is if you're going 721 00:38:20.000 --> 00:38:24.239 to Dubai and you are a road dog to twenty eighteen, 722 00:38:24.920 --> 00:38:28.840 twenty five, twenty seven and one, so forty eight point 723 00:38:28.840 --> 00:38:32.000 one percent against the spread average line six point one. 724 00:38:32.719 --> 00:38:35.199 That's this is way higher than that though, and it's 725 00:38:35.239 --> 00:38:39.039 only minus point seven, So it's a coin flip trend. 726 00:38:39.079 --> 00:38:40.199 It's not a terrible thing. 727 00:38:40.480 --> 00:38:43.519 So it's nothing to keep you off a plane Vegas 728 00:38:43.599 --> 00:38:47.400 at all. They probably will make my card at some point. 729 00:38:47.480 --> 00:38:48.840 I just got to get to the rest of it. 730 00:38:48.880 --> 00:38:52.119 But it's Vegas for pass for me here, I'm with 731 00:38:52.159 --> 00:38:52.880 you one hundred percent. 732 00:38:52.920 --> 00:38:55.239 There's a zero chance I'm laying eleven and a half points. 733 00:38:55.360 --> 00:38:58.519 I don't care how good and hopefully long when we 734 00:38:58.559 --> 00:39:01.440 get back to that. You know, we had a sweet 735 00:39:01.440 --> 00:39:05.880 spot there for about that's a year and a half 736 00:39:06.800 --> 00:39:09.320 where you you know, you kind of came up with 737 00:39:09.400 --> 00:39:14.079 the Mahomes thing and we rode it and it was like, 738 00:39:14.239 --> 00:39:17.960 so money because they got so overvalued in the marketplace, right, 739 00:39:18.480 --> 00:39:21.519 so they were laying seven eight nine point like old 740 00:39:21.519 --> 00:39:25.480 Patriot shit. The difference was Tommy covered those fucking numbers 741 00:39:25.480 --> 00:39:28.360 and Patrick never fucking did. And that was like it 742 00:39:28.400 --> 00:39:29.920 was a golden era of just. 743 00:39:30.159 --> 00:39:33.360 It's it go the way it's been since it was 744 00:39:33.400 --> 00:39:37.280 since they traded or you know, they traded Tyreek Hill 745 00:39:37.519 --> 00:39:39.360 and like after that and they stopped being like the 746 00:39:39.440 --> 00:39:43.400 explosive offense. Since then, it's been like they win but 747 00:39:43.480 --> 00:39:45.199 don't cover. Yeah. 748 00:39:45.440 --> 00:39:49.719 So, but the market has definitely adjusted on that. So, 749 00:39:49.920 --> 00:39:52.679 like we didn't get those fat ass numbers for about 750 00:39:52.679 --> 00:39:54.719 the last year or so, we got. 751 00:39:54.719 --> 00:39:58.639 More even marketplace numbers. It was harder to just pick 752 00:39:58.679 --> 00:40:00.199 against them because sometimes they would. 753 00:40:00.079 --> 00:40:04.519 Cover a five or four, when in previous years they'd 754 00:40:04.559 --> 00:40:09.039 be laying seven or eight. So now I think we're 755 00:40:09.039 --> 00:40:11.800 getting back to those more inflated numbers, which is good for. 756 00:40:11.800 --> 00:40:13.159 Us because we can take advantage. 757 00:40:13.199 --> 00:40:15.159 On the other side, that's not what they do, just 758 00:40:15.199 --> 00:40:17.239 like you said, it's not what they do. So unless 759 00:40:17.320 --> 00:40:19.599 fucking Geno goes out there and those three picks, which 760 00:40:20.159 --> 00:40:22.119 obviously he's shown he's fucking capable of. 761 00:40:22.360 --> 00:40:27.519 Nah, Gino doesn't do that. That's he would uh uh, 762 00:40:28.119 --> 00:40:31.519 he never. He's grown out of that, grown out of that. 763 00:40:32.320 --> 00:40:35.679 After fourteen years in the league, he's finning fourteen years 764 00:40:35.679 --> 00:40:37.599 and five weeks of doing anything so far this year, 765 00:40:37.679 --> 00:40:38.599 he's grown out of it. 766 00:40:38.639 --> 00:40:40.039 All right, let's move. 767 00:40:39.840 --> 00:40:45.719 On to those Cleveland Browns versus Hamma Dolphins. 768 00:40:45.719 --> 00:40:48.400 I can't wait to see what this preseason line was. 769 00:40:49.199 --> 00:40:54.880 Okay, I had, Oh my god, this is embarrassing. 770 00:40:55.039 --> 00:40:55.400 I had. 771 00:40:55.920 --> 00:41:02.760 I had Miami minus seven and a half. Jesus Vegas 772 00:41:02.760 --> 00:41:05.800 out of minus one and a half. Cleveland is now 773 00:41:06.000 --> 00:41:09.400 the new favorites of two and a half. How could 774 00:41:09.400 --> 00:41:11.119 we be this wrong? 775 00:41:11.440 --> 00:41:12.039 Longhorn? 776 00:41:12.360 --> 00:41:15.039 Me and I mean, of course I was ten points wrong. 777 00:41:15.199 --> 00:41:20.239 So I have been early on, I was wrong the Dolphins, obviously, 778 00:41:21.280 --> 00:41:24.159 but I thought I was wrong on the Browns too 779 00:41:24.639 --> 00:41:26.760 until they started playing football and I was like, no, 780 00:41:26.880 --> 00:41:29.480 I was wronging those guys. But clearly my evaluation of 781 00:41:29.480 --> 00:41:31.480 the brown or the Dolphins is what led me to this. 782 00:41:31.599 --> 00:41:35.559 But even Vegas was wrong by five points here the Longhorn. 783 00:41:35.639 --> 00:41:38.199 So are we are we. 784 00:41:38.159 --> 00:41:43.039 Really in the position where Cleveland starting a quarterback? What 785 00:41:43.119 --> 00:41:48.519 is this third start, third start or second start is 786 00:41:48.639 --> 00:41:50.880 laying two and a half points to the Dolphins. 787 00:41:52.199 --> 00:41:56.559 Yeah, so this one and get the get the get 788 00:41:56.599 --> 00:41:59.960 the b bet the BDP ready because and it's not 789 00:42:00.199 --> 00:42:02.280 your normal big day pick that you would think, but 790 00:42:02.400 --> 00:42:06.000 this is gonna be the big Dick pick of the week. 791 00:42:06.079 --> 00:42:09.079 I'm gonna pop off a piece of my dick, floppy 792 00:42:09.159 --> 00:42:09.920 donkey dick. 793 00:42:09.960 --> 00:42:14.280 Sire, fuck up, we've my deck. Last thing. 794 00:42:15.159 --> 00:42:16.280 I'm gonna put some. 795 00:42:16.280 --> 00:42:20.960 My dick in oh Cleveland is gonna put it in Miami, 796 00:42:21.079 --> 00:42:23.519 so goddamn hard. And as you're riding down the units 797 00:42:23.559 --> 00:42:25.480 by Stevens, I'm gonna put you. I'm You're gonna do 798 00:42:25.519 --> 00:42:28.079 a little homework here because I'm doing one unit on 799 00:42:28.119 --> 00:42:31.039 the minus two and a half for Cleveland. I'm doing 800 00:42:31.079 --> 00:42:35.079 a half unit each on alternate lines because this one's 801 00:42:35.079 --> 00:42:38.440 gonna be a blowout. Cleveland's gonna blow the goddamn doors 802 00:42:38.719 --> 00:42:40.559 off this Miami team, and that's what makes the big 803 00:42:40.639 --> 00:42:43.400 day pick. So I want a half unit on the 804 00:42:43.480 --> 00:42:46.000 on the minus six and a half. I want a 805 00:42:46.039 --> 00:42:48.559 half unit on the minus nine and a half. Whatever 806 00:42:48.559 --> 00:42:50.480 those numbers come out to, and I can look them 807 00:42:50.559 --> 00:42:52.920 up to. I don't have as much access to to 808 00:42:53.039 --> 00:42:59.920 the ultimate lines as you do. Uh yes, sir, cleve 809 00:43:00.119 --> 00:43:03.000 one at home. I talked about it with with what 810 00:43:03.039 --> 00:43:06.119 Carolina's doing. Cleveland at home is just a different animal. 811 00:43:06.159 --> 00:43:09.519 They play well at home. They stink on the fucking road. 812 00:43:10.039 --> 00:43:15.440 Miami outdoors now, Miami outdoors in Cleveland. We've been to Cleveland. 813 00:43:15.639 --> 00:43:17.599 We know, we know what it's like in Cleveland. It ain't. 814 00:43:17.760 --> 00:43:21.320 It ain't the greatest weather even in like typically not 815 00:43:22.480 --> 00:43:26.039 bad type of weather situations. What's the weather like this 816 00:43:26.119 --> 00:43:30.480 weekend in Cleveland? Ninety fucking percent chance of rain. This 817 00:43:30.599 --> 00:43:35.639 is a fucking Cleveland won the ball pass rush the 818 00:43:35.679 --> 00:43:37.920 fuck out of to what he's gonna be just seeing 819 00:43:38.000 --> 00:43:41.840 start like this is a blowout. I'm calling for a 820 00:43:41.880 --> 00:43:45.519 blowout of a team that is one in five Like that. 821 00:43:46.400 --> 00:43:48.519 I know it's not your typical big dick pick of 822 00:43:48.599 --> 00:43:50.840 me picking a big underdog. This is me picking a 823 00:43:50.880 --> 00:43:53.960 one in five team to blow the doors off another team, 824 00:43:54.199 --> 00:43:57.000 albeit another one in five team. Another team is not 825 00:43:57.119 --> 00:44:01.199 very good. A team is imploding, having having player only meetings. 826 00:44:01.199 --> 00:44:03.760 That that the quarterbacks calling out about people being late 827 00:44:03.800 --> 00:44:07.039 to that he that reportedly he's been late to himself 828 00:44:07.079 --> 00:44:10.280 in years past. Like this is just chaos there. There's 829 00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:13.679 talks about Wattle being traded, the coach being fired, Like 830 00:44:14.199 --> 00:44:17.800 Miami is the biggest ship show in the world right now, 831 00:44:17.840 --> 00:44:21.159 and you're telling me they're gonna go to Cleveland in 832 00:44:21.280 --> 00:44:26.119 a rainstorm on grass that's this fucking tall and and 833 00:44:26.280 --> 00:44:29.480 full of water and win a game. Get the motherfuck 834 00:44:29.559 --> 00:44:32.280 out of here, give me Cleveland, give me them to 835 00:44:32.400 --> 00:44:36.199 win by ten points or more. And let's catch these tickets. 836 00:44:36.880 --> 00:44:39.639 I gotta plus one six and a half plus two 837 00:44:39.719 --> 00:44:41.719 thirty four on the nine and a half. 838 00:44:41.840 --> 00:44:46.039 Let's go, baby, Let's go half you know each on those. 839 00:44:45.920 --> 00:44:48.440 One ns half straight up? 840 00:44:48.599 --> 00:44:51.159 Now now before I go, before I go piss, well, 841 00:44:51.159 --> 00:44:53.320 you do your handicap. Do I have agreement from the 842 00:44:53.320 --> 00:44:54.880 big brain numbers or. 843 00:44:54.920 --> 00:44:56.960 Not you got nothing for me? 844 00:44:59.239 --> 00:45:00.880 Are you gonna you're gonna talk long enough for me 845 00:45:00.920 --> 00:45:05.079 to go to the party? Or do we wait for 846 00:45:05.119 --> 00:45:05.719 the next one. 847 00:45:06.320 --> 00:45:07.639 I will start the next one. 848 00:45:07.719 --> 00:45:10.840 You can go, okay, go ahead, all right, good, all right. 849 00:45:10.840 --> 00:45:14.159 We're gonna move on to those Tennessee Titans host those 850 00:45:14.599 --> 00:45:16.840 New England Patriots. 851 00:45:16.840 --> 00:45:17.159 All right. 852 00:45:17.280 --> 00:45:19.760 Preseason line on this one, boys and girls. 853 00:45:20.360 --> 00:45:24.559 You can go to party. No, go ahead, I'm good. 854 00:45:25.599 --> 00:45:31.360 Uh, preseason line on this one. I had, I actually 855 00:45:31.440 --> 00:45:31.760 had ten. 856 00:45:31.880 --> 00:45:33.599 This is the only game I had Tennessee favorite in. 857 00:45:33.760 --> 00:45:37.960 I had had Tennessee minus one. Vegas had Tennessee minus 858 00:45:37.960 --> 00:45:41.159 one and a half, or sorry, a New England minus 859 00:45:41.159 --> 00:45:46.079 one half. It's New England minus seven minus seven. This team, 860 00:45:46.239 --> 00:45:48.199 I mean, I said this team is gonna be bad. 861 00:45:48.599 --> 00:45:53.639 This team was even worse than I ever fucking imagine this, 862 00:45:53.840 --> 00:45:58.880 much worse. Seven. You're laying seven points on the road. WHOA, 863 00:45:59.400 --> 00:46:02.039 I don't know. I don't know about this well. 864 00:46:03.159 --> 00:46:06.119 I mean, first of all, you're they got rid of 865 00:46:06.119 --> 00:46:09.400 the worst coach in NFL history. And I don't say 866 00:46:09.400 --> 00:46:13.239 that like flippingly, like Callahan may have. 867 00:46:14.679 --> 00:46:18.079 Two years ago, like I don't fucking like this higher 868 00:46:18.119 --> 00:46:18.599 at all. 869 00:46:19.320 --> 00:46:22.800 Yeah, first offensive line, I was like, yeah, and he 870 00:46:22.960 --> 00:46:25.960 was a great offensive line coach, a shitty head coach. 871 00:46:25.760 --> 00:46:28.000 And he still is a great old line coach. And 872 00:46:28.039 --> 00:46:32.320 that's and like, that's scary too, because the the dad left. Obviously, 873 00:46:32.360 --> 00:46:35.559 the son got fired. So you know, usually when when 874 00:46:35.599 --> 00:46:38.440 the head coach gets fired, your staff stays put and 875 00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:41.440 they just elevate, you know, somebody to head coach. Everybody 876 00:46:41.440 --> 00:46:44.119 else stays the same. Well, the dad was the old 877 00:46:44.199 --> 00:46:47.079 line coach. The sun got fired, So obviously Dad's like, yeah, 878 00:46:47.079 --> 00:46:48.400 I guess I'm kind of out of here too, and 879 00:46:48.440 --> 00:46:51.840 he kind of did the I'll exit stage left. You 880 00:46:51.880 --> 00:46:54.320 don't have to plenty of money he could do that, yes, 881 00:46:54.400 --> 00:46:58.239 for sure. Now, but back to the point, how do 882 00:46:58.320 --> 00:47:03.519 you not get a huge boost just just automatically from 883 00:47:03.559 --> 00:47:06.039 when you don't have the worst head coach in the 884 00:47:06.119 --> 00:47:10.239 NFL anymore? And it wasn't like forget I know what 885 00:47:10.280 --> 00:47:14.559 you be. No, I can't like that that that stuff's 886 00:47:14.599 --> 00:47:19.360 gone now because I don't have the free square No, 887 00:47:19.679 --> 00:47:23.599 and and I and I gave the caveat until Callahan's fire. 888 00:47:24.320 --> 00:47:28.000 Well it's a good thing. These are on fucking video 889 00:47:28.280 --> 00:47:30.440 and we can and we can see them and play 890 00:47:30.440 --> 00:47:35.960 them back. So you do have the dead coach bounce 891 00:47:36.199 --> 00:47:40.239 obviously in this spot. And New England and so I'm 892 00:47:40.239 --> 00:47:42.519 gonna be on Tennessee and now I prefer seven and 893 00:47:42.559 --> 00:47:44.280 a half. I don't know if it's gonna take I 894 00:47:44.280 --> 00:47:45.840 don't know if it's gonna take back up. It is 895 00:47:45.840 --> 00:47:48.280 at seven and a half on some of the some 896 00:47:48.320 --> 00:47:51.360 of the early contest lines. You it popped at seven 897 00:47:51.360 --> 00:47:53.440 and a half earlier in the week. I don't know 898 00:47:53.440 --> 00:47:57.480 if it's gonna go back there. New England is coming 899 00:47:57.519 --> 00:48:01.800 off three. This is their third straight road game. They 900 00:48:02.239 --> 00:48:06.440 won and covered the first two one and they won 901 00:48:06.519 --> 00:48:09.960 and covered the first two. This is terrible. This is this, 902 00:48:09.960 --> 00:48:12.559 This is just to get out of town, get the win. 903 00:48:13.440 --> 00:48:15.519 I'm back on Tennessee. It's safe to be back on 904 00:48:15.559 --> 00:48:20.559 Tennessee again, I think, uh so, so yeah, give me 905 00:48:20.639 --> 00:48:23.360 Tennessee in the seven and a half and and I'll go. 906 00:48:23.480 --> 00:48:26.159 I'll be right back in thirty seconds. But I know, 907 00:48:26.679 --> 00:48:29.159 I fucking know I've got agreement here. 908 00:48:30.079 --> 00:48:32.599 Oh you're a giant liar. You told us all you 909 00:48:32.639 --> 00:48:36.039 would stand said first of all, now that he's gone. 910 00:48:36.199 --> 00:48:38.760 He never said he never said that. He never said that, 911 00:48:38.960 --> 00:48:40.760 he never said it. So I'm just gonna put it 912 00:48:40.760 --> 00:48:45.199 out there while he's gone. Uh. 913 00:48:45.719 --> 00:48:48.559 Now, the money is still coming in on the Patriots 914 00:48:48.559 --> 00:48:51.800 plus five percent, so we'll see where the market goes. 915 00:48:52.079 --> 00:48:54.039 We could probably wait for the seven and a half 916 00:48:54.440 --> 00:48:58.719 for being honest, but as far as the powering. 917 00:48:58.400 --> 00:49:01.440 Is go, it's a no goal here on the power rings. 918 00:49:01.519 --> 00:49:04.360 However, the DPG has this game great out in New 919 00:49:04.400 --> 00:49:08.159 England winning twenty eight to eighteen and a real fucking 920 00:49:08.480 --> 00:49:13.320 snooze that kid to the under forty two and a half. 921 00:49:13.559 --> 00:49:14.679 I like the under here. 922 00:49:15.320 --> 00:49:18.800 Look, both these quarterbacks are going to struggle. The running 923 00:49:18.840 --> 00:49:22.199 game for Tennessee is going to struggle at home. The 924 00:49:22.280 --> 00:49:25.440 running game for New England should be about what it 925 00:49:25.480 --> 00:49:28.559 normally is. There's just not gonna be a lot of 926 00:49:28.599 --> 00:49:32.000 scoring in this game. You know, I fully agree with 927 00:49:32.800 --> 00:49:38.559 taking Tennessee plus the seven. I fully indoors betting betting. 928 00:49:39.559 --> 00:49:40.960 I knew it. I knew it. 929 00:49:43.920 --> 00:49:46.840 Oh long, horseback, stop everybody's about everbody's talking about. 930 00:49:47.239 --> 00:49:52.159 Yeah, how much shit was he talking like that? How much? 931 00:49:52.159 --> 00:49:53.239 Shut up? No? 932 00:49:53.639 --> 00:49:57.039 I got Tennis, I got New England winning twenty to eighteen. 933 00:49:57.360 --> 00:50:00.639 I hope to God that I flicked that score and 934 00:50:00.719 --> 00:50:03.800 Tennessee actually wins this game for my under eight and 935 00:50:03.800 --> 00:50:04.880 a half on New England. 936 00:50:05.519 --> 00:50:07.480 Yeah, I need that one. 937 00:50:07.800 --> 00:50:11.159 Like I said, it's fully possible both these quarterbacks should struggle. 938 00:50:11.800 --> 00:50:14.039 The problem with this one is, like I said, Tennessee's 939 00:50:14.119 --> 00:50:15.760 running game is. 940 00:50:15.760 --> 00:50:19.480 Going to struggle here. I don't like that at all. 941 00:50:19.719 --> 00:50:21.960 But again, I don't have all all of my grades 942 00:50:21.960 --> 00:50:24.159 in front of me right now. It will be Tennessee 943 00:50:25.239 --> 00:50:28.320 or pass for me, so they're gonna. 944 00:50:28.119 --> 00:50:30.320 Be on my card. But New England will not. 945 00:50:30.239 --> 00:50:33.679 Be on my card. I can promise you that all right. 946 00:50:33.559 --> 00:50:34.599 Now, New England is ku. 947 00:50:34.880 --> 00:50:37.159 You missed that New England's catching four percent of the 948 00:50:37.239 --> 00:50:39.519 money right now, so we could get a seven and 949 00:50:39.559 --> 00:50:41.480 a half if we wait, if we just be patient. 950 00:50:41.800 --> 00:50:44.039 Oh okay, good, good, good seven and a half. 951 00:50:44.039 --> 00:50:47.199 So let's just let it trickle. Let's let the trickle happen. 952 00:50:48.039 --> 00:50:52.280 Oh I'm so in just interested to hear your opinion 953 00:50:52.360 --> 00:50:54.280 on this game, even though I also do have to 954 00:50:54.280 --> 00:50:58.880 say a rushroom break, but I will hold it for 955 00:50:58.880 --> 00:51:01.519 as long as I can want to hear your thoughts 956 00:51:01.599 --> 00:51:08.159 on this game. It's so chicgo bes and they're red 957 00:51:08.239 --> 00:51:13.440 hot gay quarterback. He's here, he's queer, and Longhorn is 958 00:51:13.440 --> 00:51:16.559 gonna have to fucking deal with him because right now 959 00:51:17.000 --> 00:51:19.280 to the first so many games of his career, he. 960 00:51:19.320 --> 00:51:21.119 Looked like no bullshit. 961 00:51:21.199 --> 00:51:23.519 He literally has some of the best measures of any 962 00:51:23.599 --> 00:51:28.440 quarterback that's ever been one all fucking time for the 963 00:51:28.599 --> 00:51:35.360 worst franchise for quarterbacks of all fucking time. Now, I 964 00:51:35.400 --> 00:51:38.519 told you when this kid was dripping, I believed in him. 965 00:51:38.920 --> 00:51:42.960 A newsgay, that's fine, a newsgay, it's fine. 966 00:51:43.360 --> 00:51:44.639 Gay whatever. 967 00:51:45.480 --> 00:51:50.559 But I said, this kid has the fucking talent. Can 968 00:51:50.679 --> 00:51:51.519 he be developed? 969 00:51:51.880 --> 00:51:53.199 Can he learn? That's all? 970 00:51:53.400 --> 00:51:58.239 That's always the fucking question with these it's and it's maddening, Longhorn, 971 00:51:58.599 --> 00:52:01.840 as you know you you are the draft guru, guy. 972 00:52:03.360 --> 00:52:06.880 It is maddening to watch these kids and all this 973 00:52:07.039 --> 00:52:12.039 talent and how they do or don't develop at every 974 00:52:12.079 --> 00:52:15.519 position and quarterback, you know, being the number one watch 975 00:52:15.639 --> 00:52:18.360 or whatever, but you watch them all, you guy guys. 976 00:52:18.440 --> 00:52:20.440 You come in like this guy's gonna be a badass 977 00:52:20.440 --> 00:52:22.400 offensive line, he's gonna do this and do that, and 978 00:52:22.440 --> 00:52:25.880 he just doesn't develop right or you got your pet 979 00:52:25.920 --> 00:52:29.760 cast like this kid, he's been under scouted, he's a badass, 980 00:52:29.960 --> 00:52:32.880 he just needs developing, and then he does. And you 981 00:52:32.880 --> 00:52:36.119 you've picked amazing players all through the years, like this 982 00:52:36.199 --> 00:52:38.760 is the guy. Just fucking listen and then they do. 983 00:52:38.920 --> 00:52:42.760 They pop right. But it's so maddening because it's such 984 00:52:42.760 --> 00:52:46.960 a personal experience with these kids. And he finally has 985 00:52:47.079 --> 00:52:52.159 a coach that will not not literally but figuratively, get 986 00:52:52.199 --> 00:52:53.320 into his ass. 987 00:52:53.960 --> 00:52:58.199 And fucking make him do what he wants. 988 00:52:58.480 --> 00:53:01.039 That's that's the key. It is the key. 989 00:53:01.679 --> 00:53:06.599 The fucking football on time, onto a design play that's 990 00:53:06.679 --> 00:53:11.000 designed to fucking work. Just get rid of the god 991 00:53:11.559 --> 00:53:18.480 damn ball anyway, Chicago, Uh, preseason on this one, I 992 00:53:18.559 --> 00:53:22.199 know it was high. I had I had the minus seventh, 993 00:53:22.239 --> 00:53:23.559 Vegas had my seven and a half. 994 00:53:23.639 --> 00:53:25.960 We're both hot. Vegas is even higher than me. We're 995 00:53:26.000 --> 00:53:27.840 sitting at four and a half currently. Long warn what 996 00:53:27.880 --> 00:53:28.199 do you go on? 997 00:53:29.239 --> 00:53:31.119 I'm definitely gonna land on new Ormans in this game. 998 00:53:31.159 --> 00:53:32.760 It's not a sounder, it's not a big day pick. 999 00:53:32.760 --> 00:53:35.800 It's it's nothing like that. But yeah, you got Chicago 1000 00:53:36.119 --> 00:53:42.119 coming off three straight wins, three straight wins. This is 1001 00:53:42.199 --> 00:53:45.559 that some might some people might call that a winning streak. 1002 00:53:45.719 --> 00:53:47.360 I don't know, but yeah, you're one hundred percent of 1003 00:53:47.440 --> 00:53:50.679 right to just a deva for a second, Like it's 1004 00:53:50.719 --> 00:53:54.519 all coaching. I'm so more convinced now than ever that 1005 00:53:54.639 --> 00:53:58.239 this league is just so much more coaching than we have. 1006 00:53:59.719 --> 00:53:59.960 Coach. 1007 00:54:00.719 --> 00:54:03.159 Yes man, because when we just talked about with Callahan, 1008 00:54:03.400 --> 00:54:05.800 like like, don't be shocked, even though it's a short 1009 00:54:06.119 --> 00:54:10.639 short time, don't be shocked if you see Ward cam 1010 00:54:10.719 --> 00:54:13.039 Ward for Tennessee play some of his better games, Like 1011 00:54:13.079 --> 00:54:15.440 he won't he won't go crazy with with not a 1012 00:54:15.480 --> 00:54:18.360 reset in an offseason and all that, but like, don't 1013 00:54:18.360 --> 00:54:22.320 be surprised if he just talent. True, yeah, so he'll 1014 00:54:22.360 --> 00:54:24.559 still suck and have and struggle, but don't be surprised 1015 00:54:24.599 --> 00:54:27.360 if you're like everyone's well, oh shit, he he there's 1016 00:54:27.400 --> 00:54:30.360 a real quarterback, like like like flashes, You'll see flashes 1017 00:54:30.400 --> 00:54:33.599 of it, just like we saw with Caleb of so 1018 00:54:34.079 --> 00:54:35.800 you're like his very. 1019 00:54:35.639 --> 00:54:38.599 First throw when he threw literally from the right sideline 1020 00:54:38.880 --> 00:54:46.559 almost to the left back pie line. Yeah throw obviously, yeah, 1021 00:54:46.920 --> 00:54:51.000 no talent, But like with Caleb Williams, we saw flashes 1022 00:54:51.039 --> 00:54:53.239 when he had bad coaches of like oh, ship that's 1023 00:54:53.280 --> 00:54:56.039 that's a real NFL throw, more than we seen mccam 1024 00:54:56.119 --> 00:54:56.440 so far. 1025 00:54:56.519 --> 00:54:59.440 But like, but now he's got a real NFL head 1026 00:54:59.480 --> 00:55:02.079 coach years like, like someone that's a noble shit you're 1027 00:55:02.079 --> 00:55:03.679 doing in my way with the highway type of guy. 1028 00:55:03.920 --> 00:55:05.719 And he's taken to it. So credits a Kali. He's 1029 00:55:05.760 --> 00:55:08.159 taking to it. He could he could reject it because 1030 00:55:08.199 --> 00:55:09.800 he could be he could have that attitude like I'm 1031 00:55:09.840 --> 00:55:11.679 the number one pick, I'm bigger than you, I'm making 1032 00:55:11.719 --> 00:55:13.960 more money than you, blah blah blah. But he's taking 1033 00:55:14.000 --> 00:55:17.199 it and they're starting to win. But with that said, 1034 00:55:17.679 --> 00:55:22.000 there's ninety percent chance of rain coming into this. The 1035 00:55:22.000 --> 00:55:23.960 weather's going to be an issue in some of these games. 1036 00:55:24.039 --> 00:55:26.320 So that's not that's not all that people are talking 1037 00:55:26.320 --> 00:55:28.440 about it, but it's gonna be an issue. And with 1038 00:55:28.559 --> 00:55:32.519 that rain and the fact that Chicago doesn't particularly run 1039 00:55:32.559 --> 00:55:34.880 the ball that well. They did last week we saw 1040 00:55:35.039 --> 00:55:37.719 them run all over Chicago. That hasn't been the case 1041 00:55:37.760 --> 00:55:40.079 for them for the most of the year. New Orleans 1042 00:55:39.880 --> 00:55:42.960 is decent at stopping the run. So if they can't 1043 00:55:43.119 --> 00:55:46.960 run the ball, and New Orleans does run the ball 1044 00:55:47.000 --> 00:55:50.480 against the Chicago defense, that that's I think they're I 1045 00:55:50.480 --> 00:55:52.079 think they were in the middle of the pack, you know, 1046 00:55:52.159 --> 00:55:56.920 and run efficiency, run defensive efficiency. So it just lines 1047 00:55:57.000 --> 00:55:58.760 up for New Orleans to be able to hang around 1048 00:55:59.039 --> 00:56:01.480 in this game like they had almost every sale game 1049 00:56:01.719 --> 00:56:05.440 besides one and then one other factor which means absolutely nothing. 1050 00:56:05.480 --> 00:56:07.719 It's just for it's just for talking heads, which I 1051 00:56:07.760 --> 00:56:12.599 am uh is the Spencer Rattler versus versus Caleb Williams. 1052 00:56:12.719 --> 00:56:16.760 This goes this, this you know situation ship goes back 1053 00:56:16.800 --> 00:56:21.039 to the Oklahoma days, the you know, Caleb taking his 1054 00:56:21.159 --> 00:56:27.079 job and then and then Caleb transferring to to USC 1055 00:56:27.280 --> 00:56:29.239 and then Raller, then Raleer having to going to to 1056 00:56:29.559 --> 00:56:32.760 having to go to South Carolina. For a team that 1057 00:56:32.960 --> 00:56:34.960 isn't very good at New Orleans to have a little 1058 00:56:34.960 --> 00:56:37.280 bit of a chip on its shoulder as a dog 1059 00:56:38.440 --> 00:56:40.440 weather on its side. It just lines up for the 1060 00:56:40.480 --> 00:56:42.039 five five and a half points that they're getting. Is 1061 00:56:42.039 --> 00:56:44.840 it's still open? Is it down to four and a half? Ah? 1062 00:56:45.000 --> 00:56:47.599 Fuck me, So that that number is dropping. I'm on 1063 00:56:47.679 --> 00:56:49.400 New Orleans. You gotta get it at four and a half. 1064 00:56:49.440 --> 00:56:51.360 That that's the rock bottom number you got to get 1065 00:56:51.480 --> 00:56:53.320 in this game. So New Orleans for me. 1066 00:56:54.719 --> 00:56:57.039 All right, so powering is out of Chicago. 1067 00:56:57.159 --> 00:57:02.480 However, the BBG has New Orleans six to twenty three. Okay, 1068 00:57:03.639 --> 00:57:06.239 and that's over the total forty six and a half. 1069 00:57:06.599 --> 00:57:08.960 But again, like Longhorner just mentioned, with the weather factor, 1070 00:57:09.320 --> 00:57:10.800 I wouldn't trust the total on. 1071 00:57:10.800 --> 00:57:12.119 This one, just to be honest. 1072 00:57:12.639 --> 00:57:16.119 Now, TALEB does great out well, gaus half a point 1073 00:57:16.360 --> 00:57:20.599 to the BBG. However, this is the best game, the 1074 00:57:20.639 --> 00:57:22.159 best game I've ever grated. 1075 00:57:22.199 --> 00:57:24.519 Spencer Rattler at he gains two points. 1076 00:57:24.519 --> 00:57:24.920 Oh oh. 1077 00:57:26.960 --> 00:57:31.320 And for the running game both running systems, So Chicago 1078 00:57:31.360 --> 00:57:33.039 games they're not good to running ball, but they gain 1079 00:57:33.079 --> 00:57:35.039 a half a point to what they do versus what 1080 00:57:35.079 --> 00:57:37.840 New Orleans does it wells isn't great run the ball, 1081 00:57:37.880 --> 00:57:39.239 but they gain a full. 1082 00:57:38.960 --> 00:57:41.360 Point is what Chicago does. 1083 00:57:41.679 --> 00:57:45.679 And just just for reference, that's what significant? Why is 1084 00:57:45.719 --> 00:57:48.000 what is that? What does that tell you? With the numbers? 1085 00:57:49.519 --> 00:57:51.800 I mean, a full point is generally like. 1086 00:57:52.079 --> 00:57:54.199 You know, the best, the best, the best upgrade you're 1087 00:57:54.199 --> 00:57:54.920 gonna get is that. 1088 00:57:55.360 --> 00:57:59.480 In a running game? Yeah okay, now for quarterbacks usually 1089 00:57:59.519 --> 00:58:00.119 three point. 1090 00:58:00.880 --> 00:58:02.639 Right, but for running game that's about as good as 1091 00:58:02.800 --> 00:58:04.960 an upgrades you're gonna get situational. 1092 00:58:05.039 --> 00:58:05.159 Now. 1093 00:58:05.159 --> 00:58:07.280 I've seen a couple of two's pop here and there, 1094 00:58:07.320 --> 00:58:12.079 but yeah, that's if anything. One and over is pretty elite. 1095 00:58:12.239 --> 00:58:16.039 So from the ball, Spencer should be able. 1096 00:58:15.840 --> 00:58:16.920 To and that. 1097 00:58:17.079 --> 00:58:18.559 And that's the reason why they're total so hot. 1098 00:58:18.599 --> 00:58:21.280 Because both these teams basically grade out score a lot 1099 00:58:21.480 --> 00:58:26.039 versus each other. It should be a decently matched shootouts. However, 1100 00:58:26.199 --> 00:58:29.119 with the weather, we'll see how that works out. But 1101 00:58:29.159 --> 00:58:30.920 that's the reason why I've got the game at forty 1102 00:58:31.000 --> 00:58:33.039 nine points the over runners forty six and a half. 1103 00:58:34.400 --> 00:58:36.599 The weather may affect that, it may bog it down 1104 00:58:36.800 --> 00:58:40.880 a little bit, but again, schematically, both these teams should 1105 00:58:40.920 --> 00:58:44.360 have success scorning the ball. So you know, if both 1106 00:58:44.400 --> 00:58:46.920 teams going to score the football, you always want to 1107 00:58:46.960 --> 00:58:49.880 take the fucking dog because they're gonna be live the 1108 00:58:50.079 --> 00:58:51.960 entire time. They should be able to move the ball 1109 00:58:52.000 --> 00:58:55.440 and score the ball like it's it's New Orleans pass 1110 00:58:55.440 --> 00:58:59.519 from here too, So I agree. All right, rememberving on 1111 00:58:59.639 --> 00:59:04.000 to those Minnesota likings, they're hosting those. 1112 00:59:05.400 --> 00:59:09.000 Philadelphia Eagles. I'm interested to see what the preseason line 1113 00:59:09.039 --> 00:59:12.159 on was this. All right, I had Philly. 1114 00:59:13.519 --> 00:59:16.800 Minus three and Vegas had Philly minus three, so we 1115 00:59:16.800 --> 00:59:17.679 were locked up. 1116 00:59:17.519 --> 00:59:18.159 On this one. 1117 00:59:18.559 --> 00:59:21.719 Philly is now minus one and a half or so 1118 00:59:22.719 --> 00:59:23.679 across the board. 1119 00:59:25.360 --> 00:59:28.199 Let's see. I think that's still accurate. 1120 00:59:29.119 --> 00:59:33.079 And the money currently is coming in on. 1121 00:59:36.360 --> 00:59:37.239 What the fucking same. 1122 00:59:38.400 --> 00:59:43.199 Money's plus eleven percent on the vikings right now, Longhorn, 1123 00:59:43.320 --> 00:59:48.519 So money caming in on the vikings. Here's my problem 1124 00:59:48.519 --> 00:59:50.519 in this game, though, if I look across the lines, 1125 00:59:51.280 --> 00:59:54.360 it's basically one and a half. But the two sharpest 1126 00:59:54.360 --> 00:59:57.480 books in Vegas are still setting it to at even 1127 00:59:57.599 --> 01:00:02.239 Jews in Westgate and Circa. So the rest of the 1128 01:00:02.280 --> 01:00:06.960 market has moved against the Eagles into the vikings, but 1129 01:00:07.039 --> 01:00:09.039 the two sharpest books are holding it too. 1130 01:00:10.360 --> 01:00:12.280 That gives me a little bit of pause here. But 1131 01:00:12.280 --> 01:00:12.719 what are you going to? 1132 01:00:14.320 --> 01:00:17.840 Well, I want the two at least to be on 1133 01:00:17.920 --> 01:00:20.840 Minnesota here and I but I'm not liking some of 1134 01:00:20.880 --> 01:00:25.760 the things. Like I mean, I know that the quarterback 1135 01:00:26.360 --> 01:00:30.880 JJ McCarthy is practicing, and there has been a lot 1136 01:00:30.880 --> 01:00:34.760 of talk from the coach that he's like gonna start him, 1137 01:00:35.000 --> 01:00:37.320 but I haven't heard anything for sure as of our 1138 01:00:37.360 --> 01:00:40.880 recording here right now. I don't want it to be 1139 01:00:41.039 --> 01:00:43.559 Jj McCarthy. I like, I like the way this team 1140 01:00:43.639 --> 01:00:49.480 is coming into form with Carson Wentz, and now that 1141 01:00:49.559 --> 01:00:52.719 may not last the whole the whole season, because Carson 1142 01:00:52.719 --> 01:00:55.079 Wentz has a shelf life because he's not a you know, 1143 01:00:55.079 --> 01:00:58.480 he's he's proven that he's not a long term solution 1144 01:00:58.559 --> 01:01:00.599 at quarterback. But I don't know that that J. J. 1145 01:01:00.719 --> 01:01:04.039 McCarthy is a solution right now at at any point 1146 01:01:04.039 --> 01:01:07.280 this season. So I hope that it stay that he 1147 01:01:07.360 --> 01:01:15.800 stays with with with with Carson Wentz. Now, Carter and 1148 01:01:15.880 --> 01:01:19.559 Mitchell are probably back for Philadelphia, so that those are 1149 01:01:19.679 --> 01:01:25.639 those are two key pieces coming back for Philadelphia. But 1150 01:01:26.119 --> 01:01:31.199 that offense is still dysfunctional. It's in dysfunction. It's not 1151 01:01:31.280 --> 01:01:35.119 gonna be fixed because they hired within the building, and 1152 01:01:35.159 --> 01:01:40.239 they hired so far down. Apparently the the the the 1153 01:01:40.320 --> 01:01:43.360 ladder that the guy is overwhelming. He doesn't know, he 1154 01:01:43.400 --> 01:01:46.239 doesn't know how to fix this, at least at least 1155 01:01:46.280 --> 01:01:47.599 it's proven that he doesn't want to fix it as 1156 01:01:47.599 --> 01:01:51.400 of yet. So there's probably gonna be a firing at 1157 01:01:51.400 --> 01:01:55.760 some point during this year at offensive coordinator for Philly. Now, 1158 01:01:55.880 --> 01:01:58.039 is it is it after this game? Is it is 1159 01:01:58.079 --> 01:01:59.719 it two or three weeks from now? I don't know. 1160 01:02:00.039 --> 01:02:02.440 We've seen this before with Philly. They will fire AOC 1161 01:02:03.280 --> 01:02:06.840 mid year. I expected to come and and when you 1162 01:02:06.880 --> 01:02:12.719 have a struggling offense and you've got I don't know. Okay, 1163 01:02:13.400 --> 01:02:16.760 let's not DERAILINGO. That conversation with with with a guy. 1164 01:02:16.800 --> 01:02:21.840 That's that's But I will say this that that that 1165 01:02:22.000 --> 01:02:26.360 transmission transitions me into hurts off of a loss. Usually 1166 01:02:26.400 --> 01:02:29.400 you think about teams, really good teams off a loss, 1167 01:02:29.920 --> 01:02:32.440 that's their sweet spot. You bounce back on them. It's 1168 01:02:32.480 --> 01:02:34.760 not the case of Philly. We've seen Philly go on 1169 01:02:34.800 --> 01:02:39.559 these like are they are they? Yes, that's what they 1170 01:02:39.559 --> 01:02:42.400 did and that's not typical with winning teams, but they 1171 01:02:42.480 --> 01:02:45.400 do it. So Philly off off of a loss with hurts, 1172 01:02:45.599 --> 01:02:47.920 they're ten and eleven straight up in the next game, 1173 01:02:48.440 --> 01:02:50.880 seven and fourteen against the spread in the next game. 1174 01:02:51.039 --> 01:02:53.639 So this is not the spot for them. So yeah, 1175 01:02:53.679 --> 01:02:56.440 I'm on Minnesota. And when you were going I really 1176 01:02:56.480 --> 01:02:59.000 want the two two and a half, I missed the 1177 01:02:59.000 --> 01:03:00.639 boat on that. I don't know was gonna get back 1178 01:03:00.719 --> 01:03:03.679 up there. I was there flirting with JJ McCarthy, or 1179 01:03:03.719 --> 01:03:05.719 at least he's practicing. I don't think that the coach 1180 01:03:05.800 --> 01:03:08.840 is gonna that's gonna help. They're not gonna go that way, 1181 01:03:08.840 --> 01:03:10.400 and I don't think they're going to. I think I 1182 01:03:10.400 --> 01:03:12.239 think the coach is gonna be like, let's just ride 1183 01:03:12.239 --> 01:03:14.519 out with with Carson Wentz. Let's see how far it's 1184 01:03:14.519 --> 01:03:18.000 gonna take us. But but you know, Minnesota is getting 1185 01:03:18.000 --> 01:03:22.519 healthy on the old line and on defense Cashman Green 1186 01:03:22.920 --> 01:03:25.360 van Grienkle might play. The old line is back to 1187 01:03:25.440 --> 01:03:28.119 four fists healthy from the from the start of the year. 1188 01:03:28.400 --> 01:03:30.159 So they're starting to They're starting to get healthy on 1189 01:03:30.159 --> 01:03:34.400 that Minnesota side. And yeah, I like Minnesota. Oh is 1190 01:03:34.440 --> 01:03:37.159 this a no, this isn't a sounder. You know what 1191 01:03:37.239 --> 01:03:39.400 I pulled it. It's what this was gonna be a sounder, 1192 01:03:39.400 --> 01:03:40.760 but I pulled it. But just because of the J J. 1193 01:03:40.880 --> 01:03:44.880 McCarthy thing, like until I hear that it's gonna be 1194 01:03:45.559 --> 01:03:48.320 Carson Wentz and not JJ, I can't play with with 1195 01:03:48.320 --> 01:03:51.000 a sounder like that. But but I do like Minnesota 1196 01:03:51.000 --> 01:03:54.039 plus one and a half, plus two, whatever highest number 1197 01:03:54.039 --> 01:03:55.760 you can get them at. 1198 01:03:57.800 --> 01:04:01.599 Just look up some stats here again, because I don't 1199 01:04:01.639 --> 01:04:05.000 get to go through everything. Now the power ringing has 1200 01:04:05.159 --> 01:04:08.199 Philly here. I've got this. It's forty three and a 1201 01:04:08.239 --> 01:04:10.679 half as the total. I've got it graded slightly under. 1202 01:04:10.719 --> 01:04:11.920 I've got Minnesota. 1203 01:04:11.480 --> 01:04:14.239 Winning this game twenty to twenty through the BBG. 1204 01:04:14.400 --> 01:04:17.440 This is a really, really, really. 1205 01:04:17.239 --> 01:04:20.159 Bad matchup for Carson Wentz. 1206 01:04:20.199 --> 01:04:24.280 He loses three points to the BBG, so that's as 1207 01:04:24.320 --> 01:04:27.760 bad as you can get. However, Jalen Hurst loses half 1208 01:04:27.800 --> 01:04:31.639 a point and Minnesot's run game grades out as flat. 1209 01:04:31.800 --> 01:04:36.079 So that's fine. But again, Philly, this cavalst for this 1210 01:04:36.119 --> 01:04:38.320 Philly team. And I said it to start the year. 1211 01:04:38.400 --> 01:04:42.280 If Barkley is not gonna be Barklay, Jalen Hurts is. 1212 01:04:42.239 --> 01:04:43.079 Not the quarterback. 1213 01:04:43.199 --> 01:04:47.440 He's not the quarterback to carry your team for a season. 1214 01:04:47.559 --> 01:04:49.719 And they grade up minus one point five. 1215 01:04:49.519 --> 01:04:51.719 To the BBG against this defense. 1216 01:04:51.800 --> 01:04:55.239 So that makes all the difference in the world. Because 1217 01:04:55.960 --> 01:04:58.159 all of their points to the BBG last year when 1218 01:04:58.159 --> 01:05:01.840 I had them win about seven blah blah, it all 1219 01:05:02.000 --> 01:05:04.599 came from the running game. It all came from they 1220 01:05:04.599 --> 01:05:07.159 were gaining that they were the only team them in 1221 01:05:07.199 --> 01:05:09.039 Baltimore last year were the only team to gain like 1222 01:05:09.079 --> 01:05:12.280 two points to the VBG the running game. And now 1223 01:05:12.760 --> 01:05:15.320 both those teams are losing that much in the running, 1224 01:05:15.440 --> 01:05:16.360 because that's how bad. 1225 01:05:16.400 --> 01:05:17.559 It's fucking suffering. 1226 01:05:18.239 --> 01:05:21.800 And even as bad as Scarson wins grades out, which 1227 01:05:21.840 --> 01:05:25.880 he is, he grades up terribly versus scene, they still 1228 01:05:25.920 --> 01:05:28.760 grade out to win because Philly's not gonna be able 1229 01:05:28.760 --> 01:05:31.760 to score the ball without that running attack, because Jalen 1230 01:05:31.800 --> 01:05:33.280 Hursts can't score the fucking football. 1231 01:05:33.280 --> 01:05:35.760 He just that's not who he is. If you look 1232 01:05:35.840 --> 01:05:37.639 at so, I just look at some stats. 1233 01:05:37.920 --> 01:05:42.679 You mentioned their defense long morning, Philly's nineteenth right now, 1234 01:05:42.920 --> 01:05:47.559 nineteenth and ep April play. This was the best defense 1235 01:05:48.039 --> 01:05:51.280 in the league last year. Nineteenth and success rate, So 1236 01:05:51.800 --> 01:05:55.360 that's just a straight nineteen. They're below average on defense. 1237 01:05:55.440 --> 01:05:58.800 Just straight up, they are below average on defense. I'm 1238 01:05:58.800 --> 01:06:00.760 pulling off their offense. Now, if you look at their 1239 01:06:00.800 --> 01:06:03.880 success rate on offense overall, where are. 1240 01:06:03.760 --> 01:06:08.360 We setting at? They can't be that low. I must 1241 01:06:08.400 --> 01:06:09.000 have missed them. 1242 01:06:09.480 --> 01:06:10.559 They can be that low. 1243 01:06:12.119 --> 01:06:14.320 Jesus wait, where is Philly. 1244 01:06:16.119 --> 01:06:17.239 Go to the bottom third. 1245 01:06:18.280 --> 01:06:25.039 I'm looking. I'm looking for the stupid Eagles. Fine, I'm 1246 01:06:25.079 --> 01:06:28.639 not seeing Oh they're Oh that's because I have it. 1247 01:06:28.840 --> 01:06:31.320 Oh I've got it inverted. Sorry, boys and girls. 1248 01:06:31.920 --> 01:06:35.840 Uh, twenty first, twenty first success rate in offense. So 1249 01:06:36.360 --> 01:06:40.599 they are all definitions. And I said this was it 1250 01:06:40.719 --> 01:06:43.039 last week when I had a handicap it. They're blo 1251 01:06:43.119 --> 01:06:44.000 Irish football team. 1252 01:06:44.119 --> 01:06:50.159 They're below average football team. That's just what. That's the reality. 1253 01:06:50.239 --> 01:06:52.559 What the stats says the reality with their performance. I 1254 01:06:52.599 --> 01:06:55.119 know the record doesn't quite say so right now, but 1255 01:06:55.239 --> 01:06:57.920 like you said, they go on these streets and they 1256 01:06:57.920 --> 01:07:02.000 are in a fucking funk right now. I don't want 1257 01:07:02.039 --> 01:07:06.320 to bet Minnesota, particularly with Carson wins, especially as bad 1258 01:07:06.320 --> 01:07:08.440 as he grades out. But I will give you a 1259 01:07:08.440 --> 01:07:11.880 trend here, and this is on Minnesota. 1260 01:07:13.079 --> 01:07:19.679 They are on the bye. Uh no, sorry, they're they're run. 1261 01:07:19.800 --> 01:07:20.599 This is not on this game? 1262 01:07:20.679 --> 01:07:21.079 Sorry? 1263 01:07:22.039 --> 01:07:26.880 Uh is it not Minnesota? 1264 01:07:27.559 --> 01:07:32.840 No? Okay, sorry they don't have a buy apparently not. 1265 01:07:32.960 --> 01:07:39.760 Let's see week eight looking up? No, no bye? 1266 01:07:39.960 --> 01:07:43.719 Okay, my bad, So I plugged this on the wrong spot. 1267 01:07:45.400 --> 01:07:49.760 So yeah, I mean, just overall, Minnesota grades have to win. 1268 01:07:51.400 --> 01:07:54.760 I don't want Minnesota to win for sure, but why 1269 01:07:54.800 --> 01:07:59.119 not with Carson they have an under on them. M 1270 01:07:59.320 --> 01:08:04.400 hm No, I don't think I had, so I don't care. 1271 01:08:04.559 --> 01:08:07.039 But either way Carson wentz he grades it's so bad. 1272 01:08:08.719 --> 01:08:10.920 This is one of those games I'm looking at back 1273 01:08:10.960 --> 01:08:14.480 on my board three two right now in Minnesota. We'll 1274 01:08:14.480 --> 01:08:17.960 see when I get all the grades up there. I 1275 01:08:18.000 --> 01:08:21.119 would not be very excited to bet either one of 1276 01:08:21.159 --> 01:08:21.520 these teams. 1277 01:08:21.520 --> 01:08:24.000 To be honest with you, if this was Aaron Rodgers 1278 01:08:24.680 --> 01:08:30.079 playing quarterback for Minnesota, would you like Minnesota in this spot? 1279 01:08:31.760 --> 01:08:34.800 Depending on how your graded out versus defense and that 1280 01:08:34.920 --> 01:08:37.079 and that's what keeps calling because this defense. 1281 01:08:36.840 --> 01:08:41.760 Isn't good, not gooding out terribly terribly. 1282 01:08:43.479 --> 01:08:45.399 It was a it was a trick question because er, 1283 01:08:45.720 --> 01:08:48.640 because I was trying to trap because Carson Wentz and 1284 01:08:48.720 --> 01:08:52.399 Aaron Rodgers have basically the same PFF quarterback score. So 1285 01:08:52.640 --> 01:08:55.560 if you yeah, so if you just said Aaron Rodgers, 1286 01:08:55.600 --> 01:08:57.279 you feel good with Aaron Rodgers here, then you should 1287 01:08:57.279 --> 01:09:00.359 feel good with Carson Wentz. But neither one or grading 1288 01:09:00.359 --> 01:09:02.720 out particularly well, yeah I don't. 1289 01:09:02.800 --> 01:09:06.119 I mean, you know, look, I respect the PFF grades 1290 01:09:06.199 --> 01:09:09.760 or whatever, but we've built pretty good successor at the BBG. 1291 01:09:10.279 --> 01:09:14.800 Just because it's such matchup base data, this is just 1292 01:09:14.840 --> 01:09:17.199 a terrible and maybe Aaron were grade out you know, 1293 01:09:18.239 --> 01:09:22.880 minus one versus minus three, and this would just be 1294 01:09:22.920 --> 01:09:25.279 the matchup for him, even though there even though basically 1295 01:09:25.319 --> 01:09:27.439 the same player, they both suck whatever, It's fine. 1296 01:09:27.760 --> 01:09:30.720 Yeah, but teams, But teams, you can win a game 1297 01:09:30.840 --> 01:09:33.399 nineteen to seventeen where both quarterbacks play like shit like 1298 01:09:33.399 --> 01:09:36.279 that at the end, I'm expecting that. Yeah, at the 1299 01:09:36.359 --> 01:09:38.520 end of the day, I don't. I don't care if 1300 01:09:38.560 --> 01:09:41.279 Carson Wentz scores thirty winners game or if Carson Wentz 1301 01:09:41.279 --> 01:09:44.880 scores thirteen at winters game, as long as Minnesota gets 1302 01:09:44.880 --> 01:09:47.079 the cover because if honestly, if it gets back to 1303 01:09:47.079 --> 01:09:48.760 two and a half, you can probably you can probably 1304 01:09:48.760 --> 01:09:51.199 find this on my on my premium card. I missed 1305 01:09:51.239 --> 01:09:52.279 the boat early in the week. 1306 01:09:52.800 --> 01:09:54.960 Yeah, the money's coming down on Minnesota. 1307 01:09:54.439 --> 01:09:56.000 Too, so it's not gonna happen. 1308 01:09:56.640 --> 01:10:00.840 Probably not going that way. Yeah, but yeah, to your point, 1309 01:10:01.239 --> 01:10:03.720 I mean, yes, I don't. 1310 01:10:03.720 --> 01:10:05.760 I don't expect. I don't expect either. On the offense, 1311 01:10:05.760 --> 01:10:08.000 I expect the under. I expect the under in this game. 1312 01:10:08.039 --> 01:10:10.159 I don't expect either offense. I mean, outside of a 1313 01:10:11.039 --> 01:10:15.960 whatever bus to play fucking turnover touchdown something. Well, Philly 1314 01:10:16.039 --> 01:10:19.199 loves to score touchdowns on fucking special teams, so they 1315 01:10:19.239 --> 01:10:22.520 love doing that. Ship Outside of that, no, I expect 1316 01:10:22.520 --> 01:10:25.920 a very low scoring game. That'sh game. One of them 1317 01:10:25.920 --> 01:10:28.399 wins by I Field going the end. We'll see who 1318 01:10:28.399 --> 01:10:34.039 it is, all right's one of those Sandy Diego super 1319 01:10:34.159 --> 01:10:38.119 Chargers and they're hosting those Indiana Joneses. 1320 01:10:39.199 --> 01:10:41.479 Oh in the preseason in this one. 1321 01:10:41.680 --> 01:10:44.159 I know, I know, me and Vegas is gonna be 1322 01:10:44.239 --> 01:10:47.439 wrong here just because seth Indiana Jones. 1323 01:10:48.039 --> 01:10:50.439 So I had. 1324 01:10:51.079 --> 01:10:54.760 I had Indy plus four and a four and a half, 1325 01:10:55.640 --> 01:11:01.000 Vegas had them plus six. We're said that the Chargers 1326 01:11:01.079 --> 01:11:03.680 minus one and a half long minus one and a half. 1327 01:11:04.239 --> 01:11:08.920 Huge downgrade on your boy, Herbs. I don't know, it's 1328 01:11:08.960 --> 01:11:10.760 it seems like a lot. It seems like a lot. 1329 01:11:11.399 --> 01:11:14.920 Yeah, look, I love the Chargers here. This is gonna 1330 01:11:14.920 --> 01:11:17.319 be the most the Colts are gonna be the most 1331 01:11:17.359 --> 01:11:22.279 public dog spot ever. Everyone everyone's gonna tease them up, 1332 01:11:22.560 --> 01:11:26.319 Everyone's gonna take them plus the two. How can how 1333 01:11:26.319 --> 01:11:29.239 can the best team in the NFL be underdogs? They're 1334 01:11:29.279 --> 01:11:32.279 the best, Like this is just gonna be the public dog, 1335 01:11:32.479 --> 01:11:35.520 and look, the public dog, the public wins sometimes. 1336 01:11:35.600 --> 01:11:36.760 We just saw this. 1337 01:11:37.039 --> 01:11:38.840 We just saw this and we called it and we 1338 01:11:38.920 --> 01:11:41.720 had a trend on it when they were undefeated and 1339 01:11:41.920 --> 01:11:42.840 where they go to. 1340 01:11:43.399 --> 01:11:48.319 The Rams, the Rams, same building, same building. 1341 01:11:48.279 --> 01:11:51.479 Bad dog, Like, how could you be a dog when 1342 01:11:51.520 --> 01:11:52.279 you're undefeated? 1343 01:11:52.760 --> 01:11:56.479 Yes, so, And to be fair, there was some fuckery 1344 01:11:56.479 --> 01:11:58.680 they could have won. They could have won that game. 1345 01:11:58.800 --> 01:12:00.720 But that that the way foot ball go. And in 1346 01:12:00.840 --> 01:12:05.079 this spot, look the Chargers are. They started the season 1347 01:12:05.600 --> 01:12:10.000 underrated and they were beating teams as dogs, and we 1348 01:12:10.119 --> 01:12:12.520 had value on them as the dogs. When when the 1349 01:12:12.600 --> 01:12:18.479 year started, then they got overrated. And so huh, no, 1350 01:12:19.039 --> 01:12:21.439 I'm talking without Chargers. They start remember three and oh 1351 01:12:21.520 --> 01:12:24.479 against their own division, like and they weren't dogs in 1352 01:12:24.520 --> 01:12:25.800 every game, but you know what I mean, Like they 1353 01:12:25.800 --> 01:12:29.119 started three and oh uh certainly first week against against 1354 01:12:29.199 --> 01:12:32.159 uh Kansas City when they were dug. Yeah, so like 1355 01:12:32.439 --> 01:12:35.399 so like they overachieved to start the year. Then they 1356 01:12:35.439 --> 01:12:38.880 had some injuries, were overinflated off the three and o, 1357 01:12:39.439 --> 01:12:41.479 and the value was the other way. I gainst the 1358 01:12:41.520 --> 01:12:43.520 teams that were playing, and we had some cashes on 1359 01:12:43.560 --> 01:12:45.800 some of that. Now we're getting I think to the 1360 01:12:45.840 --> 01:12:50.960 other side. You know, Joe Waltz coming back this week. 1361 01:12:51.000 --> 01:12:55.079 This is a hardball spot. I just think that that 1362 01:12:55.039 --> 01:12:57.319 that the all the public and all the money is 1363 01:12:57.319 --> 01:13:00.760 gonna be on Indy and that's that. That's enough right there. 1364 01:13:00.760 --> 01:13:02.800 Both Steven's like like, I'm not a I don't have 1365 01:13:02.800 --> 01:13:04.840 the models like like bos stephas does like like just 1366 01:13:04.880 --> 01:13:07.319 to put peel the curtain back, like like both Stephas 1367 01:13:07.359 --> 01:13:09.199 has all the numbers, like he tells you about every week. 1368 01:13:09.279 --> 01:13:11.000 He's got all the models and this and that and 1369 01:13:11.039 --> 01:13:12.920 all these different things that he tells you. I don't 1370 01:13:12.920 --> 01:13:18.520 have that. I have historical knowledge. And I fade the public. 1371 01:13:18.680 --> 01:13:21.279 I fade the narrative, whatever the narrative is. That's what 1372 01:13:21.319 --> 01:13:23.600 I'm looking to fade always. Now I look for other 1373 01:13:23.640 --> 01:13:25.960 things to back me up along that way. But that's 1374 01:13:26.000 --> 01:13:29.239 how I do it. And nobody wants to fucking Chargers here. 1375 01:13:29.439 --> 01:13:32.920 Nobody wants the Chargers here. Everyone wants the underdog best 1376 01:13:32.960 --> 01:13:35.239 team in the NFL. So give me, give me, give 1377 01:13:35.279 --> 01:13:38.840 me harball to just to just this is a hardball spot. 1378 01:13:39.319 --> 01:13:43.880 He's a he's a sixty percent ish head coach in 1379 01:13:43.920 --> 01:13:46.680 the NFL. That's just what he is. And these are 1380 01:13:46.680 --> 01:13:48.439 the top of games that he wins. So give me 1381 01:13:48.439 --> 01:13:50.560 the Charges at home to get the coach the second 1382 01:13:50.560 --> 01:13:54.039 loss of their season and the same goddamn building through seven. 1383 01:13:53.760 --> 01:14:00.560 Weeks all right, so on this one, look to be 1384 01:14:00.600 --> 01:14:04.720 honest with you feeling wise, like spot wise, I'm one 1385 01:14:05.359 --> 01:14:05.560 with you. 1386 01:14:06.399 --> 01:14:08.760 Mathematically, I just can't get there. 1387 01:14:10.840 --> 01:14:15.439 Just because I mean, both these teams grade out literally 1388 01:14:15.560 --> 01:14:18.520 like the BPG hasn't twenty three to twenty three. 1389 01:14:18.840 --> 01:14:23.239 Tie, which is to the under which you know, forty 1390 01:14:23.279 --> 01:14:23.720 eight and a half. 1391 01:14:23.800 --> 01:14:25.359 I kind of feel a little bit good about that. 1392 01:14:26.680 --> 01:14:29.520 The reason why I do herbs grades out flat here. 1393 01:14:29.880 --> 01:14:32.800 This is a bad grade out for Indiana Jones. He 1394 01:14:32.880 --> 01:14:35.960 loses a point in half of the VPG and they 1395 01:14:35.960 --> 01:14:39.000 lose half a point in the running game. Now, the 1396 01:14:39.079 --> 01:14:41.840 Chargers grade out flat with their running game. But the 1397 01:14:41.920 --> 01:14:44.119 Chargers running game has been so hit or miss this year, 1398 01:14:44.199 --> 01:14:50.000 you know, so overall it grades out of the tie. Now, 1399 01:14:50.560 --> 01:14:53.720 everything Longhorn said is correct. This is the spot for 1400 01:14:54.479 --> 01:14:57.640 the Chargers. This is not the spot for Indy. It 1401 01:14:57.960 --> 01:15:00.199 would have to be the Chargers passed from me here. 1402 01:15:00.399 --> 01:15:04.000 I look back at the buckets. Indy is getting the money, 1403 01:15:04.199 --> 01:15:07.159 so and that's the money. When I said the money, 1404 01:15:07.199 --> 01:15:10.680 that's a that's a bet for splinter or bet split 1405 01:15:10.720 --> 01:15:12.840 percentage between tickets and money. 1406 01:15:13.880 --> 01:15:14.640 They're getting it. 1407 01:15:14.760 --> 01:15:16.840 And that's been a very good indicator for us for 1408 01:15:16.880 --> 01:15:18.760 the last years, basically whoever's. 1409 01:15:18.399 --> 01:15:21.439 Getting the money, it's basically been hitting at sixty percent. 1410 01:15:21.560 --> 01:15:25.560 So if you just took one indicator overall, you're winning 1411 01:15:25.600 --> 01:15:30.000 sixty percent. So now it's a long time between when 1412 01:15:30.000 --> 01:15:34.560 we're recording now and game day to where that metric lands. 1413 01:15:35.279 --> 01:15:39.079 I usually grade it on Saturday afternoon, and that's generally 1414 01:15:39.119 --> 01:15:40.840 when I try to put the picks. If I'm betting 1415 01:15:40.840 --> 01:15:44.079 the whole board, which I will again this week, that's 1416 01:15:44.119 --> 01:15:46.279 when I'll wait to We could see it's only like 1417 01:15:46.319 --> 01:15:50.319 eleven percent right now, that could easily flip. I wanted 1418 01:15:50.359 --> 01:15:52.600 to flip because I definitely don't want to be on 1419 01:15:53.840 --> 01:15:54.560 Indy here. 1420 01:15:54.920 --> 01:15:56.960 I think everything one Horne just said is correct. 1421 01:15:58.199 --> 01:16:00.680 It's it's this is one of those games the Chargers 1422 01:16:00.680 --> 01:16:03.960 are gonna go achieve their goals. 1423 01:16:03.840 --> 01:16:05.000 That they've set before them. 1424 01:16:05.039 --> 01:16:06.760 This has to be the game that they This has 1425 01:16:06.800 --> 01:16:08.119 to be a game they wins. 1426 01:16:08.760 --> 01:16:12.319 And and how long is Daniel Jones. It's a great story. 1427 01:16:12.720 --> 01:16:15.000 Love the story. Look, and I don't think he's gonna 1428 01:16:15.039 --> 01:16:17.279 like turn into a pumpkin obviously as we're as we're 1429 01:16:17.279 --> 01:16:21.880 approaching Halloween. But he's not gonna be perfect like that. 1430 01:16:22.399 --> 01:16:25.079 He is still Daniel M f and Jones, so like 1431 01:16:25.960 --> 01:16:28.159 he's got a game in him coming that's just gonna 1432 01:16:28.159 --> 01:16:28.319 be a. 1433 01:16:28.479 --> 01:16:31.520 It's a bad match up for him for what San 1434 01:16:31.520 --> 01:16:35.920 Diego does schematically, for what he thrives, and so he's 1435 01:16:36.000 --> 01:16:36.600 set up to. 1436 01:16:36.560 --> 01:16:37.359 Fail in this game. 1437 01:16:37.880 --> 01:16:42.279 San Diego slash La working on La Chargers. We're not 1438 01:16:42.439 --> 01:16:43.600 quite got there yet. 1439 01:16:44.279 --> 01:16:46.560 Win a playoff game. Win a playoff game, and I'll 1440 01:16:46.600 --> 01:16:47.640 consider calling. 1441 01:16:47.399 --> 01:16:50.000 You there you go, there you go, Chargers. That's all 1442 01:16:50.039 --> 01:16:50.439 you gotta do. 1443 01:16:51.079 --> 01:16:52.079 All right, let's move one of. 1444 01:16:52.119 --> 01:16:59.439 Those Dan Burr Broncos Hilsen, oh those New York football jus. 1445 01:16:59.680 --> 01:17:05.760 All right, in this one, I had the Giants plus nine, 1446 01:17:05.840 --> 01:17:07.680 Vegas seven plus seven and a half. 1447 01:17:08.880 --> 01:17:09.920 We're sitting at. 1448 01:17:11.279 --> 01:17:13.439 Seven seven consensus. 1449 01:17:13.680 --> 01:17:17.199 Let's see where it opened at though, eight, so it 1450 01:17:17.279 --> 01:17:18.760 opened closer to my number. 1451 01:17:19.000 --> 01:17:23.199 But the market has spoken, and the market loves the 1452 01:17:23.319 --> 01:17:29.159 bash bros In New York with those fucking two monkeys. 1453 01:17:28.880 --> 01:17:35.279 Or I'm glad they're white and when you're calling the monkeys, 1454 01:17:35.279 --> 01:17:36.760 that's that's gonna be problematic. 1455 01:17:37.199 --> 01:17:40.600 Yeah, they're white boys. Nobody, nobody can cancel us over that. 1456 01:17:40.760 --> 01:17:43.039 So uh, fair enough? What do you got on your 1457 01:17:43.439 --> 01:17:44.319 New York Giants. 1458 01:17:44.800 --> 01:17:48.439 Oh man, they're coming in with all this white boy swag. 1459 01:17:48.680 --> 01:17:51.119 I mean, like, this feels like the most trappy. 1460 01:17:51.359 --> 01:17:53.760 This is the whitest game of all, Like these two 1461 01:17:53.800 --> 01:17:56.520 white boys leading seem into one of the whitest towns 1462 01:17:56.560 --> 01:17:57.560 in all of America, and. 1463 01:17:57.520 --> 01:18:00.319 Then we're like, it's like the White Boy Bowl, I 1464 01:18:00.359 --> 01:18:01.760 mean basically. 1465 01:18:01.560 --> 01:18:04.920 Pretty much pretty much. And I want to be on 1466 01:18:06.079 --> 01:18:08.319 the seven and a half for sure. Now at seven, 1467 01:18:09.279 --> 01:18:12.359 I'm losing. I'm losing. This feels like a seven point game. 1468 01:18:12.560 --> 01:18:14.359 I don't even I don't know how this is good. Now, 1469 01:18:14.560 --> 01:18:17.000 this either feels like a seven point game or the 1470 01:18:17.039 --> 01:18:19.119 most trappy seven and a half, if that's what the 1471 01:18:19.199 --> 01:18:22.600 number that you're looking at is in the world. And 1472 01:18:22.680 --> 01:18:26.399 we get slow death to a twenty three to ten 1473 01:18:26.600 --> 01:18:30.479 spare me to death bow Knicks performance that somehow they get. 1474 01:18:30.520 --> 01:18:33.079 They get a fucking pick six that takes it from 1475 01:18:33.119 --> 01:18:37.279 a seventeen sixteen to ten Denver lead to a twenty 1476 01:18:37.279 --> 01:18:40.520 three to ten Denver win. Like, just this feels trappy, 1477 01:18:40.720 --> 01:18:43.239 Like I don't have a big feeling either way on this. 1478 01:18:43.279 --> 01:18:46.760 I'm I'm probably staying away from this one certainly at seven. 1479 01:18:46.800 --> 01:18:49.560 I'm staying away because you can't bet Denver. You just 1480 01:18:49.680 --> 01:18:52.239 you can't lay these points with the way Bonicks play. 1481 01:18:52.279 --> 01:18:54.600 You literally can't. You're you're just I mean, you might 1482 01:18:54.640 --> 01:18:57.399 win if you do, but you just logically you cannot 1483 01:18:57.439 --> 01:19:03.039 make a case points. Yeah, you can't do it. Like so, 1484 01:19:03.039 --> 01:19:05.640 so I won't do it until until I see Bownicks 1485 01:19:05.720 --> 01:19:08.000 play the way he played towards the end of last year. 1486 01:19:08.279 --> 01:19:11.880 He is a can't bet player at a big number. 1487 01:19:12.119 --> 01:19:16.079 But on the other side, you know the the I 1488 01:19:16.119 --> 01:19:20.800 mean I don't they're they're coming off these wins and 1489 01:19:20.920 --> 01:19:24.680 all this swag, they're this crash is coming like it's 1490 01:19:24.720 --> 01:19:27.439 it is still a rookie quarterback. It is still a 1491 01:19:27.479 --> 01:19:30.680 white running back. That is, he plays hard as fuck. 1492 01:19:30.720 --> 01:19:33.239 Don't get me wrong. I would love give me players 1493 01:19:33.279 --> 01:19:35.319 like that on my team all day long. Like I 1494 01:19:35.399 --> 01:19:36.880 want a player like that on my team. 1495 01:19:37.159 --> 01:19:40.399 But but not because he's a wife, But it's just 1496 01:19:40.399 --> 01:19:43.760 because he plays hard. But like, but like a player 1497 01:19:43.840 --> 01:19:47.520 like that is gonna be maximized when you get a 1498 01:19:47.600 --> 01:19:49.319 player like uh. 1499 01:19:49.159 --> 01:19:52.720 A Jamier Gibbs with Detroit. If if if the Giants 1500 01:19:52.720 --> 01:19:55.399 want to be serious about what they're building. That's fine. 1501 01:19:55.439 --> 01:20:00.159 You can have your David Montgomery slash scatter Bow. You 1502 01:20:00.159 --> 01:20:02.079 can have him, but you've got to have the lightning 1503 01:20:02.079 --> 01:20:03.960 to go with it. If you're just running at Scatterbow 1504 01:20:04.039 --> 01:20:05.439 and you're just punching in there for three and a 1505 01:20:05.479 --> 01:20:08.640 half four yards of care, that ain't gonna work. It's 1506 01:20:08.720 --> 01:20:10.880 not going to work. You gotta have the lightning with 1507 01:20:11.000 --> 01:20:15.000 the thunder. So it just feels long story short. It 1508 01:20:15.039 --> 01:20:17.119 feels trappy to take the seven and a half with 1509 01:20:17.279 --> 01:20:19.520 the Giants, but I cannot take Denver. So it's a 1510 01:20:19.560 --> 01:20:22.560 stay away game from me, all right. 1511 01:20:22.640 --> 01:20:25.119 So I didn't run any numbers on this game because 1512 01:20:25.239 --> 01:20:30.600 I don't have enough data on uh, what's his name 1513 01:20:30.880 --> 01:20:33.000 the quarterback. 1514 01:20:32.560 --> 01:20:35.520 For Jackson Dark, Jackson Dark. 1515 01:20:36.199 --> 01:20:39.079 But we've got the just looking at the eighth best 1516 01:20:39.239 --> 01:20:45.520 success rate rush defense in Denver. So look, I'm I 1517 01:20:45.560 --> 01:20:47.760 would never lay these points, but this is it's a 1518 01:20:47.800 --> 01:20:48.239 past man. 1519 01:20:48.279 --> 01:20:51.520 I'll just keep it simple one, all right, all right? 1520 01:20:51.680 --> 01:20:58.800 Moving all those Arizona bien I don't know, maybe who knows, 1521 01:20:59.039 --> 01:21:01.680 who knows they're holds. 1522 01:21:01.560 --> 01:21:06.119 Those green bar packers though, and preseason on this. 1523 01:21:08.039 --> 01:21:13.560 I'm probably gonna be will So I had this pick them. 1524 01:21:14.039 --> 01:21:16.520 Vegas had it at Arizona plus one and a half. 1525 01:21:16.520 --> 01:21:19.279 We're sitting at six and a half with girls, So 1526 01:21:19.960 --> 01:21:22.920 me and Vegas way the fuck off on this game. 1527 01:21:23.199 --> 01:21:24.279 So long home? What do you got? 1528 01:21:25.439 --> 01:21:28.800 What I am drawing? I don't know if it's a 1529 01:21:28.880 --> 01:21:32.800 seven beers or it's just I don't know what it is. 1530 01:21:32.840 --> 01:21:37.840 But what's the what's the quarterback for? Yeah? B set, 1531 01:21:37.960 --> 01:21:40.600 that's it's it's look I rolled down. 1532 01:21:40.479 --> 01:21:42.439 Because by the way, six and a half and market 1533 01:21:42.640 --> 01:21:44.399 moving towards seven. 1534 01:21:45.199 --> 01:21:50.760 Jesus, So I don't I don't care literally which quarterback 1535 01:21:50.800 --> 01:21:53.319 it is. I'm at the point I don't care because 1536 01:21:53.399 --> 01:21:56.159 because this is the sweet spot for Arizona. Now I'm 1537 01:21:56.159 --> 01:21:58.319 not This isn't gonna be on my card more than likely, 1538 01:21:58.359 --> 01:22:00.279 this isn't gonna be in any of my contents, more 1539 01:22:00.359 --> 01:22:04.159 than likely. But this is the spot for Arizona, no 1540 01:22:04.199 --> 01:22:07.840 matter what quarterback you got. And and green Bay wake 1541 01:22:07.960 --> 01:22:11.640 me up the next time Green Bay plays a full 1542 01:22:11.960 --> 01:22:14.960 game on offense and defense to where they look like, 1543 01:22:15.279 --> 01:22:17.680 oh my god, this is is green Bay gonna win 1544 01:22:17.760 --> 01:22:20.600 Super Bowl? Is Greenmay gonna win a game that that 1545 01:22:20.600 --> 01:22:22.800 that that against a good team. I don't know, so 1546 01:22:23.119 --> 01:22:24.479 you are so like they're. 1547 01:22:24.359 --> 01:22:27.800 So Philadelphia, Like, yes, it looks like they look. 1548 01:22:28.079 --> 01:22:33.800 Interested and then uninterested so often like remember when Philly 1549 01:22:33.800 --> 01:22:35.359 went on I mean even last year when they won 1550 01:22:35.439 --> 01:22:37.840 the Super Bowl run like there were points and games 1551 01:22:37.880 --> 01:22:40.720 like do they even care that we're playing football right now? 1552 01:22:40.800 --> 01:22:41.880 What what are they doing? 1553 01:22:42.399 --> 01:22:44.119 Yeah? And you don't. And you don't go on the 1554 01:22:44.199 --> 01:22:47.359 road in the NFL against a team that's historically a 1555 01:22:47.399 --> 01:22:50.239 good dog spot and win games by margin when you're 1556 01:22:50.239 --> 01:22:53.159 playing like that. So yeah, this is a quick, easy 1557 01:22:53.800 --> 01:22:55.760 handicap for me. Give me Arizona. And I don't care 1558 01:22:55.760 --> 01:22:56.720 who's playing quarterback. 1559 01:22:58.399 --> 01:22:59.000 Yeah, I don't have. 1560 01:22:59.000 --> 01:23:01.119 Any numbers on this game again because I don't know 1561 01:23:01.119 --> 01:23:03.680 what quarterback explained, not that it really fucking matters, as 1562 01:23:03.720 --> 01:23:08.159 we said, But if you look at success right on offense, though, 1563 01:23:09.279 --> 01:23:12.199 green Bay is the number two success right on offense, 1564 01:23:12.479 --> 01:23:16.600 right behind Indiana Jones and the Colts. And if you 1565 01:23:16.640 --> 01:23:20.720 look at defense, oh, let's just look, let's just pull 1566 01:23:20.800 --> 01:23:26.359 up Arizona Dolphins. Sorry, Arizona on offense is twenty ninth, 1567 01:23:27.760 --> 01:23:32.399 twenty nine. They're only ahead of the Dolphins, the Titans, 1568 01:23:33.439 --> 01:23:38.920 and the fucking Browns. They have been awful, like Kyler 1569 01:23:39.039 --> 01:23:43.600 has been so bad. He's been so bad on defense. 1570 01:23:43.720 --> 01:23:48.840 You've got green Bay sitting at eleventh, Arizona twenty third. 1571 01:23:49.720 --> 01:23:53.199 There's seven point home dogs for a reason. But again, 1572 01:23:53.439 --> 01:23:57.520 like you said, green Bay likes to play with their food. 1573 01:23:57.840 --> 01:24:00.880 Six and a half. Ah, I mean, green Bay is 1574 01:24:00.920 --> 01:24:01.720 not gonna make my card. 1575 01:24:01.760 --> 01:24:03.159 But if I had to throw a nickel on it, 1576 01:24:03.439 --> 01:24:05.319 if I had to bet it, I'd lay the six 1577 01:24:05.359 --> 01:24:05.640 and a half. 1578 01:24:05.720 --> 01:24:08.119 I'm not laying seven. Just a bad number to. 1579 01:24:08.159 --> 01:24:13.720 Lay, all right. Well, if if I had anything, just 1580 01:24:13.760 --> 01:24:16.119 give me the point, like a in an online contest 1581 01:24:16.119 --> 01:24:18.039 where you got to pick every game. I'm taking the 1582 01:24:18.119 --> 01:24:20.960 points and I'm i mean, hats off to green Bay 1583 01:24:21.000 --> 01:24:21.279 if you can. 1584 01:24:21.800 --> 01:24:23.359 I'm not taking the six and a half. I'm just 1585 01:24:23.359 --> 01:24:24.319 not gonna do it, all right. 1586 01:24:24.439 --> 01:24:27.840 So I do have one trend on this though, and 1587 01:24:27.920 --> 01:24:31.600 it is for the Cardinals. Actually, sorry, change my opinion. 1588 01:24:31.640 --> 01:24:36.399 I forgot I have the trend. If you're all going 1589 01:24:36.479 --> 01:24:40.880 on to the Bay home dog to twenty eighteen, twenty eight, 1590 01:24:41.079 --> 01:24:44.239 and twenty and two fifty eight point three percent against 1591 01:24:44.239 --> 01:24:48.359 the spread, one point seven percent ats marginal, a line 1592 01:24:48.399 --> 01:24:51.399 of four point three that gets us exactly through the seven. 1593 01:24:51.479 --> 01:24:54.800 So again, I wouldn't lay seven. Six and a half 1594 01:24:54.880 --> 01:24:56.199 is very iffy on that trend. 1595 01:24:56.800 --> 01:25:00.479 Yeah, it's not huge, that's not I was one and better, 1596 01:25:00.560 --> 01:25:02.920 but that's that's good enough, good enough. 1597 01:25:03.600 --> 01:25:07.479 But it literally gets you exactly to seven points with 1598 01:25:07.640 --> 01:25:11.960 the ats margin on the average line, so literally you're 1599 01:25:11.960 --> 01:25:15.199 on the cutting line. So this game historically is gonna 1600 01:25:15.239 --> 01:25:19.159 come down to one mistake by green Bay that lets 1601 01:25:19.199 --> 01:25:22.520 Arizona cover or one mistake by Arizona that lets screen 1602 01:25:22.560 --> 01:25:27.399 Bay beat them by fucking double digits. All right, all right, 1603 01:25:27.439 --> 01:25:30.399 let's go on to Oh it's one of the one 1604 01:25:30.399 --> 01:25:31.520 of the oldest robberies. 1605 01:25:31.920 --> 01:25:36.359 Definitely one of the games of the week. It's those Dallas. 1606 01:25:37.600 --> 01:25:42.600 Oh boys, now we got some action. We got some action. 1607 01:25:45.119 --> 01:25:46.000 All right on this one. 1608 01:25:46.039 --> 01:25:50.960 I had Washington minus three, Vegas had them minus two 1609 01:25:51.000 --> 01:25:51.640 and a half. 1610 01:25:52.359 --> 01:25:54.600 Money been coming in, pouring in on Dallas. 1611 01:25:54.680 --> 01:25:59.199 Here, it's down to one and a half or so. 1612 01:26:00.479 --> 01:26:05.399 Here live, let's refresh this. 1613 01:26:07.800 --> 01:26:09.560 And get a correct number here. 1614 01:26:11.119 --> 01:26:16.920 Yeah, so it's fuck drafting size of two and a half. 1615 01:26:16.960 --> 01:26:19.840 So if you like the cows, go there. Let's call 1616 01:26:19.880 --> 01:26:23.119 it about one point two five because minus one anywhere. 1617 01:26:23.119 --> 01:26:25.720 It's at its minus one seventeen, so one one and 1618 01:26:25.720 --> 01:26:28.960 a half. Skins road favorites your long horder. 1619 01:26:29.000 --> 01:26:32.680 You got Draft Kings just giving out the candy. So yeah, 1620 01:26:32.720 --> 01:26:34.920 I'm all over the Cowboys here. As a matter of fact, 1621 01:26:34.920 --> 01:26:37.439 both he was get that sounder ready because we're definitely 1622 01:26:37.439 --> 01:26:41.159 gonna be hitting that sounder on this one. So let 1623 01:26:41.199 --> 01:26:43.640 me know. I need to hear it. I want to 1624 01:26:43.720 --> 01:26:46.760 hear it. Hit that sounder, baby. 1625 01:26:48.199 --> 01:26:49.000 I'm looking. 1626 01:26:49.760 --> 01:26:53.039 Where is the head hit that sounder? 1627 01:26:55.720 --> 01:26:57.279 I am looking for the sounder. 1628 01:26:59.800 --> 01:27:01.479 No, that's not it. 1629 01:27:01.640 --> 01:27:07.279 Hold on, I thought. 1630 01:27:08.520 --> 01:27:11.560 You didn't. 1631 01:27:10.880 --> 01:27:12.319 I didn't. 1632 01:27:14.359 --> 01:27:20.720 Oh my god, yeah we st. 1633 01:27:19.960 --> 01:27:24.920 That ain't What did you do? Oh? Here we go? 1634 01:27:26.039 --> 01:27:28.319 There we go. Hit that sound there it is. Hey, 1635 01:27:28.359 --> 01:27:30.960 forget the last twenty seconds. Did you heard? Because Dallas 1636 01:27:31.039 --> 01:27:34.239 is gonna win this game. I don't know how AI 1637 01:27:34.319 --> 01:27:36.920 is gonna cut this up. But let me you know what, 1638 01:27:37.000 --> 01:27:41.239 let's let's let's trick Ai po Steve's let's trick them 1639 01:27:41.279 --> 01:27:47.840 in this game. Bosiphas hit that sounder because Dallas is 1640 01:27:47.880 --> 01:27:51.039 gonna win this game against now one unit on the 1641 01:27:51.079 --> 01:27:53.600 money line. I'm not I'm not doubling up. I'm not 1642 01:27:53.720 --> 01:27:57.039 taking I'm not I'm not taking the one and a half. 1643 01:27:57.079 --> 01:28:00.239 It's just it's just not a it's not a good 1644 01:28:00.239 --> 01:28:02.199 to double up. Now. If you can get the DraftKings 1645 01:28:02.239 --> 01:28:04.640 two and a half, yeah, give me some of that 1646 01:28:04.680 --> 01:28:06.760 two and a half and the money line. But but 1647 01:28:07.399 --> 01:28:09.479 based on how we're gonna great to hear, just give 1648 01:28:09.479 --> 01:28:13.319 me the money line for one unit. As far as 1649 01:28:13.319 --> 01:28:15.520 the game goes, we got CD coming back. That that's 1650 01:28:15.560 --> 01:28:19.199 basically the big line movement here is just CD coming back. 1651 01:28:19.399 --> 01:28:21.119 He's worth of the least a full point. You'll probably 1652 01:28:21.119 --> 01:28:24.359 see this line moved even further once it gets more 1653 01:28:24.399 --> 01:28:27.359 and more out of the public. We're not one hundred 1654 01:28:27.399 --> 01:28:30.760 percent sure on who's playing receiver for Washington. More than 1655 01:28:30.920 --> 01:28:33.800 likely mcclarin's come up plus one oh five. That's what 1656 01:28:33.840 --> 01:28:38.920 I got last eight games in this matchup seven and 1657 01:28:39.039 --> 01:28:44.760 one to the Cows, Ats Dak ten to three ats 1658 01:28:44.840 --> 01:28:46.720 versus Washington on his in. 1659 01:28:46.680 --> 01:28:47.720 His last division. 1660 01:28:48.039 --> 01:28:51.039 He fucking owns this division. He owns the team, Like 1661 01:28:51.079 --> 01:28:53.640 you've got to have a real good reason to go 1662 01:28:53.680 --> 01:28:55.880 against him here. And the way Deck's playing right like 1663 01:28:55.920 --> 01:28:59.199 if he was playing bad, you know, like like currently 1664 01:28:59.640 --> 01:29:02.079 like okay, Dak own the division. But he's playing back. 1665 01:29:02.399 --> 01:29:05.800 Uh uh, he's playing lights out, he's playing MVP level 1666 01:29:05.800 --> 01:29:08.319 on offense, and he's got his guy coming back. Just 1667 01:29:08.319 --> 01:29:11.039 give me the Cols here. Let's not overthink this one, 1668 01:29:11.720 --> 01:29:12.039 all right. 1669 01:29:12.319 --> 01:29:18.039 So Kyle ranking here has Washington. I've got Washington win 1670 01:29:18.119 --> 01:29:22.680 this game twenty eight to twenty four. That's to the 1671 01:29:22.760 --> 01:29:24.439 under the kid at fifty. 1672 01:29:24.199 --> 01:29:24.760 Four and a half. 1673 01:29:24.880 --> 01:29:28.720 Yeah, massive over under massive massive. 1674 01:29:29.319 --> 01:29:32.760 Now Dak does gain having point to the BBG versus 1675 01:29:32.800 --> 01:29:36.079 Washington defense. However, this is Jay Daniels's best game. 1676 01:29:36.119 --> 01:29:38.279 He's great. Out with me, say this every against Cowboys. 1677 01:29:38.359 --> 01:29:46.600 This defense is of course to the historical bat. Historical bat. Yes, 1678 01:29:47.279 --> 01:29:48.359 he ain't two point five. 1679 01:29:48.800 --> 01:29:52.079 Now the Cal's game half a point. Also on the 1680 01:29:52.159 --> 01:29:56.439 rushing game versus Washington rushing defense. Again, this defense isn't great, 1681 01:29:57.359 --> 01:30:00.319 but the Redskins in a point and a half against 1682 01:30:00.319 --> 01:30:02.159 this Cowboys rushing defense. 1683 01:30:03.159 --> 01:30:06.640 Look, the Cows right now. 1684 01:30:06.520 --> 01:30:10.319 Are leading the board three to two. But again, I 1685 01:30:10.399 --> 01:30:14.000 still have several buckets left the grade and they do 1686 01:30:14.079 --> 01:30:18.600 have the money coming in, so I don't totally disagree 1687 01:30:18.600 --> 01:30:21.680 with it. But as the numbers great out, it's gonna 1688 01:30:21.720 --> 01:30:26.319 have to be if if the money shifts anymore. If 1689 01:30:26.319 --> 01:30:28.960 it gets down to one, it shifts back to Washington. 1690 01:30:30.039 --> 01:30:31.600 I'm gonna have to be opposite. 1691 01:30:31.199 --> 01:30:31.640 Of you here. 1692 01:30:32.640 --> 01:30:36.880 I can't take a Cowboys team versus Here's what I'm 1693 01:30:36.880 --> 01:30:37.560 open with the cows. 1694 01:30:39.199 --> 01:30:40.159 It's very, very hard. 1695 01:30:40.600 --> 01:30:43.560 And I was on Carolina last week and we want 1696 01:30:43.800 --> 01:30:44.720 we won outright. 1697 01:30:44.840 --> 01:30:45.800 We got three and a half points. 1698 01:30:45.800 --> 01:30:47.520 We won outright, And that was the mass of the 1699 01:30:47.520 --> 01:30:51.399 team that can't score the ball, cannot score the football 1700 01:30:52.439 --> 01:30:55.520 this Washington can't absolutely score the football. 1701 01:30:56.000 --> 01:30:58.560 They do at home. Carolina scores at home. They can't 1702 01:30:58.600 --> 01:31:02.760 score on the road. But but point point taking, point taking. 1703 01:31:03.560 --> 01:31:07.439 Versus a team that absolutely can score the football. I mean, 1704 01:31:07.560 --> 01:31:10.239 Dak almost has to be perfect. Never Now City Lamb 1705 01:31:10.279 --> 01:31:13.239 come back, that's a huge, huge get. But again, the 1706 01:31:13.319 --> 01:31:15.960 offense hasn't been the problem even that. Like I was 1707 01:31:16.000 --> 01:31:17.720 wrong with my handicapping them in the first week of 1708 01:31:17.720 --> 01:31:20.760 the mount I think I lost that game against them. 1709 01:31:21.000 --> 01:31:22.960 They said, hey, they can't score with that Citdee Lamb. 1710 01:31:23.239 --> 01:31:27.079 The fuck they can't. Dak's throwing bombs to fuck whatever 1711 01:31:27.119 --> 01:31:27.840 the fucking. 1712 01:31:27.640 --> 01:31:30.439 Other guy's name is, sorry, George Pickens. 1713 01:31:30.359 --> 01:31:35.840 George Pickens. So the offense has not been the problem. 1714 01:31:35.920 --> 01:31:37.880 So them scoring the ball not gonna be a problem. 1715 01:31:38.279 --> 01:31:41.920 Them stopping anybody else from scoring is always gonna be problem. 1716 01:31:41.960 --> 01:31:43.840 And now you have an offense so that comes in 1717 01:31:43.880 --> 01:31:46.399 that absolutely can score the football and does score the 1718 01:31:46.399 --> 01:31:47.640 football every week. 1719 01:31:49.560 --> 01:31:50.239 I can't do it. 1720 01:31:50.279 --> 01:31:53.000 I cannot get there on the cows here because and 1721 01:31:53.079 --> 01:31:55.199 not not to say that they won't or whatever win, 1722 01:31:55.439 --> 01:31:56.640 but it's. 1723 01:31:56.439 --> 01:31:59.920 Just the trends, man, that's the that's the that's the trends. 1724 01:32:00.039 --> 01:32:03.399 Happen in a shootout tide game like this, like you know, 1725 01:32:03.680 --> 01:32:07.960 again the over runners fifty in a week full of 1726 01:32:08.079 --> 01:32:11.640 overrunners between forty two and forty four, and it's gross 1727 01:32:11.680 --> 01:32:14.479 ass league with shitty quarter back play. 1728 01:32:15.279 --> 01:32:16.800 This fifty four and a half. 1729 01:32:17.079 --> 01:32:19.039 Now watch this one be a twenty three or twenty 1730 01:32:19.239 --> 01:32:22.439 just like what the fuck happened? That's the way that 1731 01:32:22.439 --> 01:32:25.479 will go. But no, I just think that if you're low. 1732 01:32:25.319 --> 01:32:28.239 Scoring until like the second half, and then they're both 1733 01:32:28.279 --> 01:32:29.319 gonna just explode. 1734 01:32:29.640 --> 01:32:32.600 Yeah, I think, all right. 1735 01:32:32.840 --> 01:32:35.800 What's uh, what's your over runner on the first half 1736 01:32:35.800 --> 01:32:36.279 of this week? 1737 01:32:37.199 --> 01:32:40.119 Well, if if it's fifty four and a half, it's 1738 01:32:40.119 --> 01:32:43.159 probably gonna be twenty seven and a half. I would guess, 1739 01:32:44.760 --> 01:32:48.199 you know, if it was twenty eight and a half, 1740 01:32:48.279 --> 01:32:50.239 but then you're gonna have a total more like fifty 1741 01:32:50.279 --> 01:32:52.840 six fifty seven, which you're not gonna get in the NFL, 1742 01:32:53.960 --> 01:32:56.680 then I might be inclined. But at that twenty seven, 1743 01:32:56.760 --> 01:32:59.960 twenty seven and a half, Nah, it's not it's not 1744 01:33:00.119 --> 01:33:02.600 a bad thought. It's not a bad thought. But you know, 1745 01:33:02.680 --> 01:33:05.000 like these these two quarterbacks could come out against these 1746 01:33:05.000 --> 01:33:08.359 shitty defenses and just and just light them up to start. 1747 01:33:08.439 --> 01:33:10.079 But I don't. 1748 01:33:10.279 --> 01:33:12.600 BPG said they're going to and the BBG said they're 1749 01:33:12.640 --> 01:33:14.239 both gonna be able to run the ball. Now I think, 1750 01:33:14.319 --> 01:33:16.439 I honestly think the difference in this game is going 1751 01:33:16.479 --> 01:33:19.800 to be which team actually commits to the run so 1752 01:33:19.840 --> 01:33:23.199 that they both should have success. Now, it was said 1753 01:33:23.239 --> 01:33:28.199 early on about uh Shoddy as they like to call him, 1754 01:33:28.920 --> 01:33:30.760 that he was gonna be very committed to run. He's 1755 01:33:30.800 --> 01:33:34.199 not been committed to the run now for a good reason. 1756 01:33:34.359 --> 01:33:36.399 They haven't been able to run the ball very well. 1757 01:33:36.479 --> 01:33:41.199 Upside of like maybe one game their offensive line has 1758 01:33:41.239 --> 01:33:43.279 not done very well. Longworre told you about them going 1759 01:33:43.319 --> 01:33:46.079 in the season. But here they do actually have a 1760 01:33:46.119 --> 01:33:49.199 matchup which they should be successful. So if the Cowboys 1761 01:33:49.560 --> 01:33:53.239 will be committed to the run, that's really their avenue 1762 01:33:53.279 --> 01:33:55.479 of victory here because they should have success running the 1763 01:33:55.520 --> 01:33:58.680 ball against the Washington defense. We know Washington's gonna be 1764 01:33:58.680 --> 01:34:01.359 committed to the run, is what they fucking do. They 1765 01:34:01.399 --> 01:34:03.119 have all their plays and stuff that they run off 1766 01:34:03.119 --> 01:34:07.039 of that that's where Daniels has all of success. I 1767 01:34:07.079 --> 01:34:09.319 think the difference in this one is gonna be the 1768 01:34:09.359 --> 01:34:14.159 fact that Daniels should have more success than Dak Buoba 1769 01:34:14.239 --> 01:34:15.920 Ceedee Lamb coming back. 1770 01:34:16.479 --> 01:34:17.039 Who knows. 1771 01:34:17.199 --> 01:34:19.359 I think they're definitely live dogs. It's just with the 1772 01:34:19.439 --> 01:34:21.600 numbers great out right now, it's definitely I gotta be 1773 01:34:21.640 --> 01:34:22.680 on the office side of those. 1774 01:34:22.600 --> 01:34:25.359 One very eleven dogs, very eleven dogs. All right. 1775 01:34:25.439 --> 01:34:29.359 Moving on, it's those San Francisco I guess forty nine 1776 01:34:29.439 --> 01:34:33.119 ers with left of them hosting those hot Atlanta Falcons. 1777 01:34:34.600 --> 01:34:36.920 I'll go ahead and quote the preseason lines on. 1778 01:34:36.880 --> 01:34:40.159 This, although it's not even the same football football team. 1779 01:34:40.239 --> 01:34:43.079 I had than minus seven. Vegas had a minus six 1780 01:34:43.119 --> 01:34:45.439 and a half. We're sitting at one and a half. Obviously, 1781 01:34:45.800 --> 01:34:48.920 long were huge down grades to the injury. This is 1782 01:34:48.960 --> 01:34:51.600 not the same Fancisco team. That we thought was coming 1783 01:34:51.640 --> 01:34:55.199 into the season. So you know we're left of what 1784 01:34:55.279 --> 01:34:55.600 we got. 1785 01:34:55.600 --> 01:34:56.439 What do you got on those. 1786 01:34:56.800 --> 01:34:58.800 Yeah, I'll go ahead and take care for you because 1787 01:35:00.239 --> 01:35:05.520 that sounder we're taking Atlanta two units this one, bo 1788 01:35:05.600 --> 01:35:08.760 seves two units on the money line in this game. 1789 01:35:11.039 --> 01:35:15.319 Fred Warner being out on this defense is the death 1790 01:35:16.039 --> 01:35:18.960 the death of this defense. Like they were already dealing 1791 01:35:19.039 --> 01:35:23.640 with Bosa being out number one and young players that 1792 01:35:23.640 --> 01:35:26.920 that Sala has trying to, like, you know, get in 1793 01:35:26.960 --> 01:35:29.560 the right spots, make plays when they can here and 1794 01:35:29.600 --> 01:35:33.600 there and the only one nineteen I'll take it. The 1795 01:35:33.640 --> 01:35:36.680 only way that that Sala can have success from the 1796 01:35:36.720 --> 01:35:39.439 sideline of getting all these young players to be in 1797 01:35:39.479 --> 01:35:42.399 the right spots to play, to play sound defense is 1798 01:35:42.439 --> 01:35:45.479 if you have a field general on the field line 1799 01:35:45.479 --> 01:35:48.319 of people out the correct way. They've played a lot 1800 01:35:48.359 --> 01:35:51.960 of games without without Bosa in their in their history 1801 01:35:52.039 --> 01:35:55.600 as the forty nine ers, because he's injury prone. They 1802 01:35:55.640 --> 01:35:59.560 don't have a history of playing without Fred Warner. So 1803 01:35:59.560 --> 01:36:02.159 so and I've got it right here, seven and fourteen 1804 01:36:02.239 --> 01:36:07.159 straight up without Bosa? What's there are they own? Fourteen 1805 01:36:07.479 --> 01:36:10.279 without Warner and Bosa together, Like I don't know what 1806 01:36:10.359 --> 01:36:12.640 that normal people like it, it can't be good. So yeah, 1807 01:36:12.920 --> 01:36:16.800 everything points to an offense with a lot of moving 1808 01:36:16.880 --> 01:36:22.199 parts and misdirection for Atlanta, with weapons that can hit 1809 01:36:22.279 --> 01:36:25.960 you at all points of the field. Bijon Pitts has 1810 01:36:26.000 --> 01:36:29.680 had a resurgon with Pennix and Drake London becoming a 1811 01:36:29.720 --> 01:36:33.239 true number one. This is gonna be chaos for San France. 1812 01:36:33.319 --> 01:36:35.319 Like I know that the quarterback's coming back, I know 1813 01:36:35.359 --> 01:36:39.239 the Kittle's coming back. Great. The quarterback is still not healthy. 1814 01:36:39.600 --> 01:36:43.720 And is he good if everything's perfect around him? Yeah, 1815 01:36:43.760 --> 01:36:46.640 he's good. If everything's not perfect around him, is he 1816 01:36:46.760 --> 01:36:50.560 just a run of the meal, your average starting quarterback? Whatever. 1817 01:36:51.079 --> 01:36:54.279 I love the team that Atlanta has right now. I 1818 01:36:54.319 --> 01:36:57.560 don't love the team that San Frans actually putting on 1819 01:36:57.600 --> 01:37:01.680 the field because of injury. Wrong team favor, wrong team favor. 1820 01:37:01.760 --> 01:37:03.079 Give me Atlanta to win this game. 1821 01:37:04.479 --> 01:37:07.119 I didn't grade this game just because all the injuries 1822 01:37:07.159 --> 01:37:08.880 and everything and the quarterback n startainty. 1823 01:37:09.039 --> 01:37:11.680 But I agree with you on. 1824 01:37:13.600 --> 01:37:16.359 Look, there's no difference to me between Mac Jones and 1825 01:37:16.520 --> 01:37:18.600 Rock Party. Rock Party was the last pick of the 1826 01:37:18.680 --> 01:37:21.800 draft for a reason. I watched the kid play his 1827 01:37:21.920 --> 01:37:26.319 whole career in college. I've been saying it, Yeah he's fine, 1828 01:37:26.720 --> 01:37:32.399 He's not that dude. If he comes back, fine, They're 1829 01:37:32.520 --> 01:37:36.000 so beat up and so injured, you know. And I 1830 01:37:36.039 --> 01:37:38.600 had this funny thing is as far as Vegas and 1831 01:37:38.640 --> 01:37:43.279 I were off on this line, I was higher than Vegas. 1832 01:37:43.439 --> 01:37:44.039 By quite a bit. 1833 01:37:44.039 --> 01:37:46.159 We talked about the preseason podcast. I was so much 1834 01:37:46.239 --> 01:37:49.439 higher in Vegas than Atlanta coming into the season, and 1835 01:37:49.479 --> 01:37:53.159 I was still this fucking wrong on this line. And 1836 01:37:53.199 --> 01:37:55.520 that just should tell you what the downgrade has been 1837 01:37:55.560 --> 01:37:57.119 because of the injuries to this team. 1838 01:37:57.479 --> 01:37:59.520 I don't know to make the San Francisco team anymore. 1839 01:38:00.439 --> 01:38:05.079 You know, we you know, Longhorn, we had we both 1840 01:38:05.159 --> 01:38:08.279 lost a teaser on the Rams two weeks ago when 1841 01:38:08.279 --> 01:38:10.640 this was a mass unit going in to face them. 1842 01:38:11.479 --> 01:38:13.720 And the Rams are a better team than Atlanta, there's 1843 01:38:13.720 --> 01:38:19.079 no doubt about that. And they beat them, So can 1844 01:38:19.079 --> 01:38:22.119 they can they steal that same kind of resiliency at home? 1845 01:38:22.399 --> 01:38:26.000 Maybe maybe they can. I don't know. 1846 01:38:26.039 --> 01:38:27.840 I don't know that I can get involved in this game. 1847 01:38:28.159 --> 01:38:28.640 I don't know. 1848 01:38:28.720 --> 01:38:30.760 I don't know if Atlanta is ready to go on 1849 01:38:30.800 --> 01:38:33.079 the road and win this game again. And I was 1850 01:38:33.119 --> 01:38:36.039 hired on Atlanta. Then you was hired Atlanta in the market, 1851 01:38:37.319 --> 01:38:39.680 but I still don't know if they're ready to go 1852 01:38:39.840 --> 01:38:40.319 do this. 1853 01:38:41.000 --> 01:38:43.920 So to that point, we talked about in the summer 1854 01:38:44.119 --> 01:38:46.560 podcast that we did like like talking without these teams 1855 01:38:46.600 --> 01:38:50.800 going in the season, Atlanta being so bad drafting on 1856 01:38:50.920 --> 01:38:54.800 defense in their history. Well, and we talked about how 1857 01:38:54.880 --> 01:38:59.079 they took the two first round pass rushers Jalen Walker 1858 01:38:59.199 --> 01:39:02.960 out of Georgia, James Price Junior out of Tennessee mortgage 1859 01:39:03.000 --> 01:39:05.319 the future a little bit to do that, and then 1860 01:39:05.319 --> 01:39:10.239 they also took Watts Xavier Watts out of out of 1861 01:39:10.520 --> 01:39:12.680 Notre Dame in the second or third round. I can't 1862 01:39:12.720 --> 01:39:17.079 remember all three of them starting, all three of them producing, 1863 01:39:17.399 --> 01:39:20.159 sprinkling some some free angines. They brought on the defense, 1864 01:39:20.399 --> 01:39:23.479 this defense, Leonard Floyd being one of them. This defense 1865 01:39:23.520 --> 01:39:26.840 has turned into Okay, we've got something here. We've got now, 1866 01:39:26.840 --> 01:39:29.079 we got something we can build around. A mix of old, 1867 01:39:29.399 --> 01:39:32.000 a mix of young. It's all coming together. And when 1868 01:39:32.039 --> 01:39:36.039 you have this this type of this cohesion going, it 1869 01:39:36.079 --> 01:39:38.199 only gets better. As the season gets going. And we 1870 01:39:38.239 --> 01:39:40.199 already see what's going on with the offense on on 1871 01:39:40.279 --> 01:39:43.920 that side of the ball. It just we we got 1872 01:39:43.960 --> 01:39:46.000 two ships passing in the night. Here, we got San 1873 01:39:46.079 --> 01:39:50.560 Fran sitting at whatever their record is, their record that 1874 01:39:50.720 --> 01:39:53.119 they're they're four and two, and we got and and 1875 01:39:53.159 --> 01:39:55.680 they're going the wrong way and in the night, and 1876 01:39:55.720 --> 01:39:57.840 we got Atlanta three and two going the other way 1877 01:39:57.840 --> 01:39:59.479 to night. So I think I think by the end 1878 01:39:59.520 --> 01:40:03.199 of the year, these two ships are heading in opposite directions. 1879 01:40:03.399 --> 01:40:06.760 And this this line here is gonna look ridiculous in 1880 01:40:06.800 --> 01:40:09.119 about six seven weeks. So yeah, give me a Lanta 1881 01:40:09.199 --> 01:40:09.760 to win this game. 1882 01:40:10.680 --> 01:40:12.119 I mean it already does if you look at it. 1883 01:40:12.159 --> 01:40:14.840 Like I said, press projection between me and Vegas said, 1884 01:40:15.439 --> 01:40:17.039 I mean, we're already six points away. 1885 01:40:17.159 --> 01:40:18.239 Yeah, what we had. 1886 01:40:18.319 --> 01:40:23.840 So Atlanta defense eighteenth right down success rate, that's a 1887 01:40:23.840 --> 01:40:25.880 big improvement from where they started the season. 1888 01:40:25.960 --> 01:40:29.520 So yeah, with three rookie starting look at. 1889 01:40:29.479 --> 01:40:33.159 The offense success rate twelve again, big improvement from starting 1890 01:40:33.159 --> 01:40:35.960 the season. So I agree with you. They're trending the 1891 01:40:36.039 --> 01:40:39.119 right direction. They're trending more towards what my numbers said 1892 01:40:39.119 --> 01:40:39.720 that they would be. 1893 01:40:40.520 --> 01:40:42.000 Now we'll see where they end up. 1894 01:40:42.439 --> 01:40:47.840 Yeah, all right, let's move on to those d Detroit Lions. 1895 01:40:47.880 --> 01:40:50.319 They got what just. 1896 01:40:50.279 --> 01:40:52.399 A Monday night. You know, I can do the Monday 1897 01:40:52.479 --> 01:40:57.239 night at the double header. 1898 01:40:57.560 --> 01:41:01.199 We got the double header Monday night. That all right, 1899 01:41:01.319 --> 01:41:06.359 free season. On this one, I had Detroit minus four. 1900 01:41:07.439 --> 01:41:10.279 Vegas had them minus three and a half. We're sitting 1901 01:41:10.640 --> 01:41:15.600 currently at minus five and a half. 1902 01:41:17.399 --> 01:41:18.720 Yeah, minus five and a half. 1903 01:41:18.800 --> 01:41:22.199 More money, money, money, money, money, money coming in on 1904 01:41:22.359 --> 01:41:22.920 the lines. 1905 01:41:22.920 --> 01:41:27.760 That opened four and a half. So even bigger favorites 1906 01:41:27.960 --> 01:41:30.680 than I projected them, Longhorn on this one. So what 1907 01:41:30.680 --> 01:41:31.239 do you got here? 1908 01:41:31.840 --> 01:41:35.760 Yeah, this is kind of the exact opposite of how 1909 01:41:35.800 --> 01:41:38.880 I felt about the Kansas City Detroit matchup last week. 1910 01:41:39.239 --> 01:41:40.920 It was just a spot for Kansas City for me 1911 01:41:41.079 --> 01:41:43.920 the way I do it, this one, it's a spot 1912 01:41:43.960 --> 01:41:48.560 for Detroit. You've got you've got against the spread, goliaths 1913 01:41:49.079 --> 01:41:53.560 going up against each other. Here, Baker against the spread, 1914 01:41:54.039 --> 01:41:56.920 just a monster at Tampa Bay sixteen and eight against 1915 01:41:56.920 --> 01:42:00.520 the spread since he's been there. You just as at 1916 01:42:00.560 --> 01:42:03.359 sixteen and eight as a dog against the spread. You 1917 01:42:03.359 --> 01:42:09.279 you literally have to have a great fucking reason. Yes, 1918 01:42:09.520 --> 01:42:11.520 you have a great reason to go against them. But 1919 01:42:11.680 --> 01:42:14.560 on the other side, you got Detroit. That's basically a 1920 01:42:14.640 --> 01:42:20.159 seventy seventy percent cover Ats almost put them in any situation. 1921 01:42:20.399 --> 01:42:24.920 They're seventy percent across the board. And but then add 1922 01:42:24.960 --> 01:42:27.560 to that Detroit off of a straight up loss, which 1923 01:42:27.600 --> 01:42:29.840 are coming off a loss against against Kansas City. They're 1924 01:42:29.880 --> 01:42:34.279 twenty and eight ATS the next game, including eleven straight 1925 01:42:34.760 --> 01:42:38.000 ATS wins. Coming off a loss like this is just 1926 01:42:38.560 --> 01:42:43.119 like something has to give in this tug of war 1927 01:42:43.319 --> 01:42:46.399 of ATS strengths and what's gonna what's gonna be the 1928 01:42:46.399 --> 01:42:50.560 deciding factor for me? Are the injuries for Detroit. You 1929 01:42:50.680 --> 01:42:54.319 got you got McNeil coming back there. They're Pro Bowl 1930 01:42:54.359 --> 01:42:57.479 defensive tackle. Adding to that to that defensive mix, and 1931 01:42:57.479 --> 01:43:00.279 you've got Taylor Decker their Pro Bowl off. It's a 1932 01:43:00.279 --> 01:43:03.680 tackle coming back. So they're getting healthier in the trenches. 1933 01:43:03.800 --> 01:43:07.399 And on the other side, Baker is on his fourth, fifth, 1934 01:43:07.479 --> 01:43:10.520 and sixth receiver and his three receivers and his three 1935 01:43:10.560 --> 01:43:14.720 receiver set. He's on number four, five, and six. Look, 1936 01:43:14.960 --> 01:43:17.920 the dude's been playing like an MVP. He's overcome all 1937 01:43:17.960 --> 01:43:20.800 this and will he do some bakers stupid ridiculous magic 1938 01:43:20.800 --> 01:43:23.159 in this game. One hundred percent he will. But I 1939 01:43:23.359 --> 01:43:25.680 have to be something has to give. I has to 1940 01:43:25.720 --> 01:43:26.680 be on Detroit. 1941 01:43:26.359 --> 01:43:28.760 Here did you see the test Johnson. 1942 01:43:29.560 --> 01:43:32.359 Yes, where he thought they were tanning MVP for him. 1943 01:43:32.399 --> 01:43:39.720 That was not for you, homeboy. Now you gotta do 1944 01:43:39.720 --> 01:43:42.720 a little more. But like but but to that, like 1945 01:43:42.720 --> 01:43:44.920 like Baker is taking these guys that are you know, 1946 01:43:45.079 --> 01:43:48.520 late draft picks nobody's anyway has heard of and still 1947 01:43:48.520 --> 01:43:51.199 winning games. That has to give us some point, or 1948 01:43:51.279 --> 01:43:53.680 does it. But but for me, I'm wanna be on Detroit. 1949 01:43:53.760 --> 01:43:56.560 This is a spot for Detroit for me. And you 1950 01:43:56.640 --> 01:43:59.079 gotta get it under six though, don't don't wait for 1951 01:43:59.119 --> 01:44:01.800 to get to six and might get to six. Get 1952 01:44:01.800 --> 01:44:04.600 it under the key number six, all right. 1953 01:44:04.640 --> 01:44:08.159 So powering is great out Tampa Bay at this number. 1954 01:44:09.079 --> 01:44:11.520 The money is still coming on Detroit though, And I 1955 01:44:11.520 --> 01:44:12.880 don't have a full bucket. 1956 01:44:12.520 --> 01:44:16.520 Grade, so I could get to six, could get to six, 1957 01:44:17.600 --> 01:44:20.520 so total fifty two and a half, it's a no 1958 01:44:20.640 --> 01:44:22.159 call for me. I have it at fifty two. 1959 01:44:22.199 --> 01:44:25.359 I've got Detroit winning this game twenty seven to twenty five, 1960 01:44:26.119 --> 01:44:30.560 which would be a Tampa Bay cover. However, you know, 1961 01:44:30.640 --> 01:44:32.680 it should be a decent matchup for golf against a 1962 01:44:32.720 --> 01:44:34.720 half point, should be a decent matchup for Baker, though 1963 01:44:34.760 --> 01:44:37.760 gains a full point what I don't like about the 1964 01:44:37.760 --> 01:44:40.399 Detroit side is they lose a half a point that 1965 01:44:40.439 --> 01:44:42.199 the BBG on their running game. 1966 01:44:42.359 --> 01:44:43.119 I don't like that. 1967 01:44:43.319 --> 01:44:45.680 But they have had some offensive line introduce to your point, 1968 01:44:46.199 --> 01:44:50.560 so maybe that canceled it out. It's a flat output 1969 01:44:50.640 --> 01:44:53.039 for the Tampa Bay running game, so they should do 1970 01:44:53.039 --> 01:44:56.439 what they do. However, I do have this trend. Detroit 1971 01:44:56.640 --> 01:45:00.680 is going on the buy next week. They are at home, 1972 01:45:00.720 --> 01:45:03.640 and they are the favorites to twenty eighteen. In that situation, 1973 01:45:04.840 --> 01:45:09.159 forty four and twenty six ATS sixty two point nine 1974 01:45:09.239 --> 01:45:13.159 percent plus one point nine ATS margin on an average 1975 01:45:13.199 --> 01:45:15.680 line of you guessed it was and girls five and 1976 01:45:15.720 --> 01:45:18.720 a half, which is exactly where we're sitting at. So 1977 01:45:19.199 --> 01:45:23.279 winning this game by seven historically is Detroit or passed 1978 01:45:23.319 --> 01:45:23.760 from me here. 1979 01:45:24.319 --> 01:45:26.319 It does feel like it does feel like a seven game. 1980 01:45:26.399 --> 01:45:28.600 That's what exactly what it feels like exactly. 1981 01:45:29.359 --> 01:45:32.319 And if we get beat on that, it's because Baker 1982 01:45:32.359 --> 01:45:33.079 pulls some shit. 1983 01:45:32.960 --> 01:45:34.760 Up his ass, which he could. 1984 01:45:35.359 --> 01:45:37.960 He always can. All right on to the second. By 1985 01:45:38.039 --> 01:45:39.640 bright up, bright. 1986 01:45:39.479 --> 01:45:44.880 Up Monday night football game, Oh Seattle, Oh Seahawks pustles Houston. 1987 01:45:44.920 --> 01:45:49.399 That's Houston with an h taxans on this one the 1988 01:45:49.439 --> 01:45:53.920 preseason line. Let's see, I had Seattle minus one, Vegas 1989 01:45:53.960 --> 01:45:56.560 had a minus one and a half. We're sitting at 1990 01:45:56.800 --> 01:45:59.720 three and a half currently, girls, so long horred. 1991 01:45:59.520 --> 01:46:03.359 To go on this? Oh well, Steefests, you better get 1992 01:46:03.359 --> 01:46:06.560 it ready because I'm feeling a little dangerous here, so 1993 01:46:06.680 --> 01:46:11.119 you better get that sounder ready for it. I'm going 1994 01:46:11.119 --> 01:46:13.319 big on this one. So let's let's call this one 1995 01:46:13.520 --> 01:46:35.479 the danger Zone game of the week. So, dude, is 1996 01:46:35.520 --> 01:46:37.119 this three? Is this grade at three and a half 1997 01:46:37.239 --> 01:46:37.560 or three? 1998 01:46:39.840 --> 01:46:46.439 Let me check the current board. We're looking at um 1999 01:46:53.159 --> 01:46:56.960 and that's more like three point two five three. It's 2000 01:46:57.000 --> 01:47:00.680 three and three the West, it's three. 2001 01:47:00.560 --> 01:47:03.199 And a half. It been online three and a half. 2002 01:47:03.239 --> 01:47:07.319 I see, all right, fine, I'll I'll just do the 2003 01:47:07.359 --> 01:47:10.159 plus three for one unit and then the one unit 2004 01:47:10.239 --> 01:47:12.159 on the money line. Then I was gonna do two 2005 01:47:12.239 --> 01:47:13.560 units if it was three and a half, but we 2006 01:47:13.640 --> 01:47:15.840 gotta we gotta be fair of what the time we 2007 01:47:15.880 --> 01:47:18.199 put it out. So it was three and a half 2008 01:47:18.640 --> 01:47:21.600 three and now so one in one and the money. 2009 01:47:21.399 --> 01:47:23.199 Is coming on on Houston, So I think. 2010 01:47:23.079 --> 01:47:29.479 You're getting okay, okay, uh So in this game, weird 2011 01:47:29.640 --> 01:47:31.880 weird thing going on with Seattle where there and this 2012 01:47:31.960 --> 01:47:34.840 goes back to last year with their new coach that 2013 01:47:34.960 --> 01:47:37.560 came from Baltimore. I always forget his fucking name. What 2014 01:47:37.640 --> 01:47:41.279 is his name? It's not McDonald, isn't McDonald, I don't 2015 01:47:41.279 --> 01:47:43.720 know whatever, the new coach that came from the de 2016 01:47:44.039 --> 01:47:46.720 guy the game from Baltimore to Seattle. We're a lot 2017 01:47:46.720 --> 01:47:48.560 of beers in this is the last game of the week. 2018 01:47:48.680 --> 01:47:52.840 So this is they're four and eight straight up at home. 2019 01:47:54.439 --> 01:47:56.880 I'll take it. Four and eighth straight out, straight up 2020 01:47:56.920 --> 01:48:00.439 at home for Seattle, three and nine eight t s 2021 01:48:00.560 --> 01:48:05.159 run at home. For whatever reason, it's it's and that 2022 01:48:05.279 --> 01:48:07.359 and that. That's a that's the home of the twelfth 2023 01:48:07.359 --> 01:48:09.720 Man that they stole from from Texas, A and M 2024 01:48:09.760 --> 01:48:12.640 like this. This is doesn't make any sense that they 2025 01:48:12.640 --> 01:48:14.680 had to pay. You get a pamp when you steal. 2026 01:48:15.039 --> 01:48:17.520 You know, we're coming up on Christopher Columbus Day. You 2027 01:48:17.520 --> 01:48:19.279 gotta you gotta pay when you steal like this is 2028 01:48:19.319 --> 01:48:24.039 the way. That's the way it goes. The shutdown corner 2029 01:48:24.159 --> 01:48:28.840 factor for Houston, whether it's whether it's Lasseter or it's 2030 01:48:28.920 --> 01:48:32.439 their best one Stingley. They have two guys. They can 2031 01:48:32.479 --> 01:48:34.199 throw a J s N. And if you take away 2032 01:48:34.279 --> 01:48:35.880 J s N, which I don't know that they will, 2033 01:48:36.039 --> 01:48:38.039 but if you if you can at least slow him down, 2034 01:48:38.199 --> 01:48:42.439 that is a one man wrecking game for Donald to 2035 01:48:42.560 --> 01:48:45.000 go to. So if you can take him out, if 2036 01:48:45.039 --> 01:48:47.920 you if they take him out, forget about it. This 2037 01:48:48.000 --> 01:48:50.640 is this is a Houston win if they if they 2038 01:48:50.680 --> 01:48:52.479 slow him down, though they can they can stay within 2039 01:48:52.520 --> 01:48:55.319 these three points and we'll see what happens at the end. 2040 01:48:56.039 --> 01:48:59.399 I like the trend up for the Houston offense that 2041 01:48:59.560 --> 01:49:03.000 the old line hasn't looked as bad the last two 2042 01:49:03.119 --> 01:49:05.239 or three weeks as they did the first two or 2043 01:49:05.239 --> 01:49:09.319 three weeks. And then and in the pass rush for Houston, 2044 01:49:09.680 --> 01:49:11.760 if they can get the Donald and they can fluster him, 2045 01:49:12.319 --> 01:49:15.600 we've seen in the past that that's his downfall. Now 2046 01:49:15.640 --> 01:49:18.000 he's he's kind of turned his career around and maybe 2047 01:49:18.000 --> 01:49:19.880 he can be able to deal with this. But even 2048 01:49:19.920 --> 01:49:21.920 if he deals with a pass rush, he still has 2049 01:49:21.960 --> 01:49:24.640 to deal with the fact that there's some lockdown corners 2050 01:49:24.880 --> 01:49:26.760 taking away his number one target, and he's got to 2051 01:49:26.800 --> 01:49:29.800 find some alternative places to go. Even if he does 2052 01:49:30.319 --> 01:49:32.840 deal with the pass rush. So everything points to Houston. 2053 01:49:32.840 --> 01:49:35.319 For me, would have loved the three and a half. 2054 01:49:35.520 --> 01:49:37.520 I'll take the three and give you the money line 2055 01:49:37.560 --> 01:49:42.560 at plus. What'd you say one's That's what I'm on, 2056 01:49:43.119 --> 01:49:43.439 all right. 2057 01:49:43.520 --> 01:49:45.600 Longharn has been red hot on the danger zone. Hit 2058 01:49:45.640 --> 01:49:52.680 both of them last week on Atlanta and on Chicago Chicago, 2059 01:49:54.720 --> 01:49:57.319 so red hot there. It's been his number one play 2060 01:49:58.039 --> 01:50:00.159 this season. He's in the black of the season. I 2061 01:50:00.199 --> 01:50:02.239 don't have the numbers befrom of me. I apologize for that. 2062 01:50:02.359 --> 01:50:05.720 I have not told them up yet. However, uh in 2063 01:50:05.720 --> 01:50:10.359 this one, the power record has Seattle graded there forty one. 2064 01:50:10.439 --> 01:50:13.279 We're sitting it over under. I've got it over that. 2065 01:50:13.399 --> 01:50:15.319 I've got Seattle win in twenty three twenty So it's 2066 01:50:15.319 --> 01:50:17.880 a no call through the BBG. Now, this is a 2067 01:50:17.880 --> 01:50:20.960 flat matchup for Sammy D. It's not a good match 2068 01:50:21.000 --> 01:50:22.800 up for straw though, loses the point of the BBG. 2069 01:50:22.920 --> 01:50:26.640 Both run a game great out as flat. I expect 2070 01:50:26.640 --> 01:50:28.159 you this to be the close Skins. We have dueling 2071 01:50:28.199 --> 01:50:32.640 trends here too, so you've got the away dog going 2072 01:50:32.760 --> 01:50:34.760 into or coming off of the buye. 2073 01:50:36.119 --> 01:50:38.079 So that is this is a great spot. 2074 01:50:38.479 --> 01:50:39.000 Houston. 2075 01:50:40.000 --> 01:50:43.840 It's fifty to fifty, so thirty five, thirty four and 2076 01:50:43.960 --> 01:50:50.800 one minus point six cumulative to the spread of a 2077 01:50:50.960 --> 01:50:53.239 line of five point three, So they're still in the 2078 01:50:53.279 --> 01:50:57.439 covers on there, however, better spot for Seattle, so they're 2079 01:50:57.479 --> 01:50:59.960 going onto the by home favorite. Same trend as we 2080 01:51:00.119 --> 01:51:02.039 just gave out forty four to twenty six and one 2081 01:51:02.119 --> 01:51:04.359 sixty two point nine percent average line of five and 2082 01:51:04.359 --> 01:51:07.399 a half winning by one point nine percent margins is 2083 01:51:07.439 --> 01:51:10.159 to win this game by seven and then I even 2084 01:51:10.199 --> 01:51:11.279 brought it down a little bit further. 2085 01:51:12.840 --> 01:51:16.640 If you're going on the buy and you. 2086 01:51:16.560 --> 01:51:20.439 Are a favorite, and you're at home, and you won 2087 01:51:20.520 --> 01:51:22.640 your last football games, in other words, you're feeling good 2088 01:51:22.760 --> 01:51:28.079 going on vacation. Since twenty eighteen thirty seven and seven 2089 01:51:28.159 --> 01:51:31.199 straight up winning by eight point six points a game 2090 01:51:31.239 --> 01:51:35.079 eighty four point one percent twenty nine fourteen and one 2091 01:51:35.479 --> 01:51:39.880 sixty seven point four percent ats with a plus two 2092 01:51:40.039 --> 01:51:42.760 point nine eight ts margin on a line of five 2093 01:51:42.800 --> 01:51:43.600 point seven. 2094 01:51:43.680 --> 01:51:45.800 Again, so winning about seven to eight. 2095 01:51:45.640 --> 01:51:48.960 Points there and over the total as I do have 2096 01:51:49.000 --> 01:51:52.960 predicted twenty four eighteen and two fifty seven percent of 2097 01:51:53.000 --> 01:51:55.119 the time on an average total forty seven point one, 2098 01:51:55.159 --> 01:51:59.560 we're only at forty one here. So and that's that's 2099 01:51:59.680 --> 01:52:03.000 plus one point seven on that so basically forty eight 2100 01:52:03.039 --> 01:52:08.279 points and they win by seven. It's I mean, the 2101 01:52:08.319 --> 01:52:11.600 buckets right now are split from what I have greated. 2102 01:52:11.920 --> 01:52:16.039 Houston is taking the money. I'm gonna wait till Seattle, 2103 01:52:16.359 --> 01:52:17.640 maybe they get down to two and a half. 2104 01:52:17.640 --> 01:52:20.520 I'm gonna hammer Seattle. I'm one against long Horn on 2105 01:52:20.560 --> 01:52:21.000 this pick. 2106 01:52:22.960 --> 01:52:25.600 It's just it's too too many things, too many factors, 2107 01:52:25.800 --> 01:52:27.439 and I already have one of my three on top 2108 01:52:27.520 --> 01:52:30.319 of all that. It's just it's a bad it's a 2109 01:52:30.359 --> 01:52:32.560 bad spot for us. It's just a bad spot. It's 2110 01:52:32.560 --> 01:52:36.159 a bad spot. But Longhorn has been red hot, and uh, 2111 01:52:36.520 --> 01:52:39.119 I'm glad I didn't go against someone any dangers done 2112 01:52:39.199 --> 01:52:42.239 last week, I would have lost both of them. So 2113 01:52:42.279 --> 01:52:45.199 I'm glad I didn't do that. But on this one, 2114 01:52:45.399 --> 01:52:47.560 it's gonna be number dependent on me. We'll see what 2115 01:52:47.600 --> 01:52:51.039 I put out on the Patreon page later on if 2116 01:52:51.079 --> 01:52:52.119 it gets a two and a half. 2117 01:52:52.159 --> 01:52:56.199 Though there's I wouldn't bet Houston under three, So you 2118 01:52:56.319 --> 01:52:59.239 gotta you gotta agree with the locked in three. Yeah, No, 2119 01:52:59.319 --> 01:53:02.159 I get that we could both win for sure. I 2120 01:53:02.239 --> 01:53:03.720 like I like when we both man, Well, of course 2121 01:53:03.720 --> 01:53:07.079 I would, you would push, but I know that's why 2122 01:53:07.079 --> 01:53:09.439 I You know what, I'll just leave it the same 2123 01:53:09.479 --> 01:53:11.520 because I really wanted the three and a half just 2124 01:53:11.560 --> 01:53:14.319 to just to steal unit in case they don't win. 2125 01:53:14.399 --> 01:53:15.439 But I'll just leave the same. 2126 01:53:15.560 --> 01:53:18.640 We're good to go, all right, boys and girls, that 2127 01:53:18.840 --> 01:53:39.680 was all the wins coming to the as and baby. 2128 01:53:41.199 --> 01:53:43.359 All right, Longhorn on some of those free I said, 2129 01:53:43.479 --> 01:53:47.079 free picks of the week, you said you weren't gonna 2130 01:53:47.119 --> 01:53:49.039 go with your word and stay to Tennessee. 2131 01:53:49.119 --> 01:53:50.520 So what do you got from. 2132 01:53:51.279 --> 01:53:54.399 Well, I'm not taking Tennessee because they have a new coach, 2133 01:53:54.680 --> 01:53:59.920 but I will take those Vegas Raiders getting twelve. I'm looking. 2134 01:54:00.079 --> 01:54:03.279 I'm stirring at twelve. So I'm taking the twelve Vegas 2135 01:54:03.319 --> 01:54:06.039 Raiders plus twelve free pick out the week? 2136 01:54:07.199 --> 01:54:09.359 All right, now you college pre pick the week. 2137 01:54:09.439 --> 01:54:14.119 Oh we're going up to Montana, baby, with those fucking fighting. 2138 01:54:13.840 --> 01:54:16.279 Cougars, I think, Josh Allens. 2139 01:54:16.800 --> 01:54:18.279 Yeah, taking on Sacred Heart. 2140 01:54:19.159 --> 01:54:23.119 What yep is this? We're doing basketball games? 2141 01:54:23.159 --> 01:54:24.720 Now, we're doing basketball. 2142 01:54:24.720 --> 01:54:28.079 We're going over fifty three and a half on the total. 2143 01:54:28.680 --> 01:54:31.640 That kid a lot of three pointers, a lot of 2144 01:54:31.640 --> 01:54:32.439 three pointers. 2145 01:54:32.520 --> 01:54:33.800 They're good at shooting threes. 2146 01:54:33.840 --> 01:54:35.840 Don't even worry about it, and take the over fifty 2147 01:54:35.840 --> 01:54:39.279 three and a half. I like it up to let's 2148 01:54:39.279 --> 01:54:43.680 say fifty seven. Thinking sitting about fifty four right now, 2149 01:54:44.079 --> 01:54:46.239 So let's get it in while we can get it in. 2150 01:54:46.319 --> 01:54:53.560 Boys and Girls, Montana and sack sacred hearts over the fifty. 2151 01:54:53.199 --> 01:54:54.239 Three and a half. 2152 01:54:55.960 --> 01:55:00.239 Alright, I'm telling me the fablius Patreon page, we were already. 2153 01:55:01.800 --> 01:55:03.960 Already went in on the week. Let's go baby, tell 2154 01:55:03.960 --> 01:55:04.880 me one more. 2155 01:55:04.720 --> 01:55:07.319 Time, gotta love it. Go to that Patreon page, patreon 2156 01:55:07.399 --> 01:55:10.880 dot com, slash bet, underscore f g H and joining 2157 01:55:10.920 --> 01:55:14.439 in the fun of busting up these bookies both. Stephen 2158 01:55:14.520 --> 01:55:16.760 is on a heater. I'm looking to get back on 2159 01:55:16.800 --> 01:55:19.840 the winning side of things. I'm hitting the danger zones, 2160 01:55:19.880 --> 01:55:21.960 hitting all that's good, But we gotta we gotta win 2161 01:55:22.000 --> 01:55:23.640 on the Patreon side because that's where we give you 2162 01:55:23.720 --> 01:55:27.960 our our heavy hitting. So people, stop throwing away your 2163 01:55:28.039 --> 01:55:31.880 hard money on a guessing game. Let the pross do 2164 01:55:32.199 --> 01:55:35.760 that heavy ling. So sign up tele a friend and 2165 01:55:35.960 --> 01:55:38.960 join in on the fun of watching football, drinking beer 2166 01:55:39.119 --> 01:55:41.800 in never pay a bookie again. 2167 01:55:42.039 --> 01:55:47.159 Come on, a damn people, never pay a book again, Stevens. 2168 01:55:47.800 --> 01:56:03.119 I guess you talk about you as you know about