Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to bat Flips and Nerds, the Baseball
Speaker 1: podcast with a British twist. I am your host this evening,
Speaker 1: Russell Lison. I'm delighted to be joined by my fellow
Speaker 1: stats nerd, Darius Austin.
Speaker 3: Darius, how are you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well.
Speaker 3: Thanks for us.
Speaker 2: Excited to get together and statnud it up. We always
Speaker 2: get these opportunities where the others mistakenly let us off
Speaker 2: the lation. We just talk about stats for an hour,
Speaker 2: so it's gonna be a great time.
Speaker 1: Yes, there is plenty of things to talk about in
Speaker 1: baseball right now, and we're going to talk about none
Speaker 1: of them. There will be a podcast in the very
Speaker 1: short term which will be around the WBC. We're just
Speaker 1: waiting for the final rosters to be confirmed and then
Speaker 1: we can go through all of that and all of
Speaker 1: the potential shenanigans that have occurred around player selections, eligibility form,
Speaker 1: great great grandparents, and insurance as Team Puerto Rico and
Speaker 1: Dominica Republic have seem to complain about in the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: If you are.
Speaker 1: Interested in those things, please do you check out the website.
Speaker 1: GAV has been pumping out content about all of these
Speaker 1: things where you can keep yourself updated and do sign
Speaker 1: up for the newsletter that Gav has been pushing now
Speaker 1: once a week to keep yourself in the loop. But
Speaker 1: we are going to discuss today. I mean, there's going
Speaker 1: to go through some of the top over and underachievers
Speaker 1: from last season compared to some projections and give you
Speaker 1: some thoughts on whether we think they're going to keep
Speaker 1: that level or whether they're going to return to a
Speaker 1: different a.
Speaker 3: Different level.
Speaker 1: Let's let's also say that they will be worse, but
Speaker 1: they won't quite be the same stardom that they had
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. So we'll start up on the
Speaker 1: hitting side a quick piece. We've kind of I've calculated
Speaker 1: some top players on O performance based on a war rating,
Speaker 1: but donate basically actually based on a quite appearance rate,
Speaker 1: so we can actually get for the rid of some
Speaker 1: of the people who had bad injuries or some of
Speaker 1: the people who just got more playing time than the
Speaker 1: experts board. So that's our general principle. Start off with
Speaker 1: some of the top hitters. Darias, when you when I
Speaker 1: asked you about this, did you have some names that
Speaker 1: you thought, you know what these are going to be
Speaker 1: these people are going to be on the list.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so I didn't get the list and go,
Speaker 2: oh wow, I'm super surprised by this. I think the
Speaker 2: name at the top of the list is definitely the
Speaker 2: name I expected to be at the top of the
Speaker 2: list because he kind of shocked everybody with how good
Speaker 2: it was last year. But yeah, overall, I think there
Speaker 2: were certainly players who you know, surprised me with their
Speaker 2: level last year, but it retroactively. I don't think there's
Speaker 2: anyone who I didn't expect to see on this Hitterus
Speaker 2: list outperforming their projections.
Speaker 1: Yes, so the top ten on the list that I
Speaker 1: have are Nick Kurtz, Kyle Stowards, Jeremy Paiinier, Haraldo Podomo,
Speaker 1: ben Rice, George Springer, Tyler Surdiers from Roman Antity, michel Garcia,
Speaker 1: and Kyle Schwarber. I think interestingly we have kind of
Speaker 1: two or three different types of kind of like players here.
Speaker 1: There's there are the young players that have performed better
Speaker 1: than the predictions would have gone for. There are some
Speaker 1: what would have been like average MLB players that then
Speaker 1: had a all star level season, and there's a couple
Speaker 1: of old guys that have not necessarily turned back the
Speaker 1: clock but have thrown out like a big season compared
Speaker 1: to that.
Speaker 3: So there is which one of.
Speaker 1: Those archetypes do you believe in more for how they're
Speaker 1: going to perform in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: I think the boring answer maybe is Schwarber, just because
Speaker 2: you know, he's been doing this for a long time
Speaker 2: and he does seem to kind of just get a
Speaker 2: little bit better every year, even though he might hit
Speaker 2: two hundred. He has that OBP floor. He has the power,
Speaker 2: You're always going to get the power. It kind of
Speaker 2: feels like it would be really surprising if Schwarber came
Speaker 2: out and put up a, you know, a one war
Speaker 2: season or something. It just doesn't seem like it could
Speaker 2: happen the level of hitter that he is now. He's
Speaker 2: also not going to come out and put up an
Speaker 2: eight war season just because he's a DH and he
Speaker 2: can only provide so much value. But what Carl Schwarber
Speaker 2: is I think should be fairly well established at this
Speaker 2: point in time. The guy who I actually believe in
Speaker 2: the most, I think based on his performance last season,
Speaker 2: maybe flies against the track record, and that is Nick
Speaker 2: Kurtz because after a sort of brief introductory period to
Speaker 2: the majors, he genuinely looked like a top ten, maybe
Speaker 2: top five hitter in baseball. And I don't really see
Speaker 2: anything to suggest that that was not real, that that
Speaker 2: was a fluke. He genuinely performed that well, you know,
Speaker 2: while the underlying metrics suggest he was an outstanding hitter.
Speaker 2: So I'm all here for the Nick Kurtz being great
Speaker 2: this year, and I think the projections have pretty quickly
Speaker 2: come around on him already. He's not protected for top ten,
Speaker 2: but I don't think he's too far off. So I
Speaker 2: think I'm on the Kurts train, and I think the
Speaker 2: A's have got a real superstar on their hands.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think it's very difficult for projections to immediately jump
Speaker 1: and be like, Okay, you've gone from basically being predicted
Speaker 1: like a one war season and having a five war
Speaker 1: season using Bangrubs war here, and you know what the
Speaker 1: projections are now going to say this season is probably
Speaker 1: going to be three four, which in itself is like
Speaker 1: that's a massive jump from what they were saying last season.
Speaker 1: I'm just really interested to see how he does or
Speaker 1: if he gets found out, because he hits like oppo
Speaker 1: better than basically everybody else in baseball, Like he had
Speaker 1: more home runs in the opposite field than anyone else.
Speaker 1: That kind of like a late contact point as well.
Speaker 1: So do you think that's has the potential for kind
Speaker 1: of like that sophomore slump if teams actually work out
Speaker 1: the way to pitch to it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's always a chance, so that that risk is
Speaker 2: always higher. I think with the guys who are newer
Speaker 2: to the majors, there was almost certainly a period last
Speaker 2: year where other teams were not really worrying about him.
Speaker 2: You know that here's a rookie didn't really hit that
Speaker 2: well to start his career, wasn't a lot of advanced
Speaker 2: scouting on him, so you could definitely believe that. Now
Speaker 2: they've got several hundred play appearances and he's increased his profiles,
Speaker 2: and the point that when they look at the A's lineup,
Speaker 2: even though the A's lineup is pretty good, everybody's eyes
Speaker 2: are probably going to be on Nick Kurtz first. Now
Speaker 2: I could see there being another adjustment or two he
Speaker 2: has to make. What he did last season gives me
Speaker 2: pretty high confidence so that they'll be able to make
Speaker 2: those adjustments quickly, and certainly the A's are playing in
Speaker 2: a place where it should help him quite a lot offensively. Anyway,
Speaker 2: that park played pretty friendly. Wasn't quite a number one
Speaker 2: in the majors, but I think it was maybe third
Speaker 2: in the stadcast part of park factice last year. So yeah,
Speaker 2: there is always that risk, and I think you're right
Speaker 2: the wall see some adjustments from opposing pictures. It will
Speaker 2: be interesting to see how quickly he can make those
Speaker 2: adjustments back, because that's what the really great hitters do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, definitely want to look forward to. It's again
Speaker 1: another thing about do how serious do teams take playing
Speaker 1: games against the A's. It's not a slight on some
Speaker 1: of the players, but the pitching side is not there,
Speaker 1: so kind of like they have, teams may have a
Speaker 1: very different approach about how they handle those games. Be
Speaker 1: more direct, to be more aggressive, be more willing to
Speaker 1: give up kind of like single home runs, which is
Speaker 1: to the benefit of himself and Tyler's Donut, who ended
Speaker 1: up on this list as well.
Speaker 3: I think for me looking through.
Speaker 1: The list, the one that I'm going to stick with
Speaker 1: a young player as well. It's not particularly hard to
Speaker 1: jump onto the Roman Anthony train and be like, you
Speaker 1: know what everybody's thought, He's good, came out, was potentially
Speaker 1: even better than people thought, and you kind of to
Speaker 1: stick to and stick to that performance level as he
Speaker 1: goes on. But I think that's again I'm thinking, I
Speaker 1: think people still don't have enough to know exactly what
Speaker 1: he's like. So he's going to get that second season
Speaker 1: where he's gonna be in the heart of a lineup
Speaker 1: that is potentially going to be playoff bound, and he's
Speaker 1: not necessarily going to be in a key position at
Speaker 1: that lineout, So I think he's going to get pitched too,
Speaker 1: because there are going to be other people in that
Speaker 1: team that they're going to be avoided. And I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna have a great opportunity to put up the
Speaker 1: sort of numbers that he did in a short season
Speaker 1: across the whole season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Antony is a shame that we didn't
Speaker 2: get to see more of him because he got injured.
Speaker 2: We sort of got this quite outlandish line that was
Speaker 2: a very small sample, but what he showed was pretty incredible.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think there's high hopes in Boston. I
Speaker 2: think maybe the shape of the production will not look
Speaker 2: quite as weird as it did this past season. He
Speaker 2: had a four or four BABIT, so maybe we don't
Speaker 2: see the two nightty two average, but I think the
Speaker 2: other skills that he showed and obviously all the prospect
Speaker 2: pedigree suggests that he can be a real force and
Speaker 2: this Red Sox lineup for many many years to come,
Speaker 2: and they obviously believe very highly in him. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm excited to see how that goes. I think the
Speaker 2: Red Sox could have a pretty good lineup. He's definitely
Speaker 2: the young guy that looks like he's got the highest
Speaker 2: ceiling at the moment offensively so well. Hopefully see some
Speaker 2: of those other younger guys come along too, but he's
Speaker 2: the one to have confidence in for sure.
Speaker 3: So far to twist your arm, Darius, which one of
Speaker 3: these ten feeding most?
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, I think it might be
Speaker 2: George Springer just because he is thirty six, and it
Speaker 2: kind of came out of nowhere that season last year.
Speaker 2: You know, he'd been on this bit of a decline
Speaker 2: for a few years in Toronto. His tenure there started
Speaker 2: out well and then it kind of just like like, hey,
Speaker 2: this is a guy in his midday he's falling off,
Speaker 2: and then he came out and had, you know, kind
Speaker 2: of a peak Springer level season at age thirty five.
Speaker 2: Not many guys do that. We've seen him have injury
Speaker 2: troubles quite a bit over the years, and it's just
Speaker 2: not the kind of thing you should bet on, really
Speaker 2: at age thirty six. I don't have anything against George
Speaker 2: Springer of like watching him player of the course of
Speaker 2: his career, but what he did last season was very
Speaker 2: much out of line with the way his career had
Speaker 2: been trending previously. So yeah, maybe he stays healthy and
Speaker 2: somehow maintains some of that level, but I am not
Speaker 2: buying another five plus win spring a season. I think
Speaker 2: we'll probably be for seeing him fall back at least
Speaker 2: in that two to three win range. Hopefully it's not
Speaker 2: any more than that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's it's the harsh but probably one
Speaker 1: of the fair ones. Personally, I think I'm not sold
Speaker 1: on mikel Garcia. It's very difficult to kind of to
Speaker 1: watch a player go from kind of a season of
Speaker 1: basically almost two full seasons of being a below average
Speaker 1: hitter and then a season of them being an above
Speaker 1: average hitter and be like, you know what, like I
Speaker 1: believe in the last year more than you believe in
Speaker 1: the track record. Obviously, players could change, players can develop.
Speaker 1: It's it's a question of how much do you believe
Speaker 1: that that power, that power was real, and how much
Speaker 1: do you believe that he's no longer striking out Like
Speaker 1: twenty twenty to twenty five percent at the time.
Speaker 3: Was real. And I don't know.
Speaker 1: Some of the snack Gas stats are a little bit
Speaker 1: some of it's I think he's there, but I will
Speaker 1: be shocked if he puts in like another what ended
Speaker 1: up being a five and a half four season into
Speaker 1: my twenty six.
Speaker 3: Yeah, me too.
Speaker 2: That that was an another possibility I was considering. I
Speaker 2: think I believe more in the strikeout games than I
Speaker 2: do in the power. He just does not hit the
Speaker 2: ball that hard. And maybe the Royals bringing their fences in,
Speaker 2: you know, Garcia is one of the guys they think
Speaker 2: that's going to help the most. But it's very much
Speaker 2: Paul power. I think there's definitely scope for him to
Speaker 2: fall back at least into the you know, the low
Speaker 2: double digits in home runs, and it's very difficult to
Speaker 2: put up a season of that quality. If that is
Speaker 2: your level of power. He did well to do what
Speaker 2: he did with with sixteen home runs last year, but
Speaker 2: I think we are going to see it at least
Speaker 2: something of a step back in that batting line. I
Speaker 2: think he's are going to be a good useful player
Speaker 2: for them, but not to the level we saw last year.
Speaker 1: Yes, so I think we'll now move on to the
Speaker 1: underachievers from a hitting perspective. Same again, similar method. I
Speaker 1: have tried to do this so that we just removed
Speaker 1: the players who basically got injured and basically didn't get
Speaker 1: a full season. Because if you do that, basically jor
Speaker 1: Dane Alvarez is effectively like top and it is like, okay,
Speaker 1: he didn't have the grade of season, but that was
Speaker 1: predominantly because of injury. So what we're actually gonna do
Speaker 1: the same again. It's basically based on three hundred innings,
Speaker 1: three hundred three play appearances minimum. How their rate of
Speaker 1: walk for per six hundred compares to against the projection,
Speaker 1: So our top ten this time, so theoretically the worst
Speaker 1: performing layer against projection was John Pediton and Jeronaheim Trace.
Speaker 3: We we're going to hopy Michael.
Speaker 1: Toglia, Mike Trout, Josh Lowe, Michael Harris the Second, Addley Ruschman,
Speaker 1: and Nolan Jones. I don't think it's quite as easy
Speaker 1: to group these characters, these kind of players together. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of very different reasons for why some of
Speaker 1: these players underperformed. Who do you have the most faith
Speaker 1: that they can actually do something better in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: sixth areas.
Speaker 2: I'm still a believer in Adlei Ruschman. I think he's
Speaker 2: had injury struggles. Obviously, things have not gone super well
Speaker 2: for the Oriols slightly definitely not as well as we expected.
Speaker 2: But I think the injuries have played a part for Ruchman.
Speaker 2: It is hard to be a catcher in the big leagues.
Speaker 2: He does a lot, and I think he does you
Speaker 2: know the other parts of the game very well. So
Speaker 2: I think even if he never reaches his offensive ceiling,
Speaker 2: we'll still see the defensive value come through and give
Speaker 2: him more than he's got at the moment. But I
Speaker 2: do also believe in the back coming around. I think
Speaker 2: that talent is still in there, and hopefully we can
Speaker 2: see him healthy this year and see him raise that
Speaker 2: back up. He's the guy, I think, Yeah, he's he's
Speaker 2: got the young the young age on his side, and
Speaker 2: he's got the pedigree and we have seen him have
Speaker 2: success in the majors, so I think he's got all
Speaker 2: those factors that you're you're looking for from a bounce
Speaker 2: back a lot of these other names. So we're the
Speaker 2: guys that I never believed in, or you know, guys
Speaker 2: that are going towards the end of their career. I
Speaker 2: think I think probably Michael Harris is the other exception
Speaker 2: to that. But yeah, who are you looking at?
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, Reuchman. It was me a toss up
Speaker 1: between Rutchman and Harris Harris because he had a much
Speaker 1: better second half of the season. That's what you would
Speaker 1: kind of you're inclined to kind of move towards that.
Speaker 1: But I then had a like a more in depth
Speaker 1: look at Harris and it actually looks at like he
Speaker 1: basically starts poor every single year. So it's like not
Speaker 1: quite the franciscol Indoor effect of the you don't want
Speaker 1: to basically you might as well just not play him
Speaker 1: in April, you can just.
Speaker 3: Let him have the.
Speaker 1: But no, it feels that like there's there's something that's there,
Speaker 1: There is a provable talent level but I can't work
Speaker 1: out why he seems to struggle at the start of
Speaker 1: the season and what kind of like suddenly gets better
Speaker 1: to him. With a lot of these players, it could
Speaker 1: be injuries, It could be these things that we haven't
Speaker 1: seen and we don't know that basically they've they've been injured.
Speaker 1: I think looking at this list, like you can definitely
Speaker 1: say that like Trout and Josh Lowe spent part of
Speaker 1: the seasons injured, and so you're kind of like, more
Speaker 1: how much how much were they playing through injuries to
Speaker 1: start off with before then not doing particularly well.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think.
Speaker 1: It has to be Adley's going to be given the
Speaker 1: time to get better, and I'm not certain beyond probably
Speaker 1: Harris and Mike Shrout who might actually get the time
Speaker 1: to actually be better in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I suppose. You know, Josh Lowe is on
Speaker 2: the Angels, and the Angels are never overflowing with offensive
Speaker 2: talent these days. But it's probably a bad sign that
Speaker 2: they're going to ask him to play some center field
Speaker 2: because he's not really a center fielder. Is either him
Speaker 2: or Goadell, who's also shown us that he's not really
Speaker 2: a center fielder, So it's possible the Angels would just
Speaker 2: laugh them share up there and they'll both look periodically
Speaker 2: bad and then a bit more comfortable when they're in
Speaker 2: a corner. But yeah, the rest of these, I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, we've got guys who haven't even got major
Speaker 2: league deals now this season. Ben has a mug now
Speaker 2: commemorating Michael Tolia's futility from last year. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't think there's a lot of other hope here. I
Speaker 2: guess Logano Hoppy is like the other guy who people
Speaker 2: had high hopes for and was just really shockingly bad
Speaker 2: over the second half of last season. It was quite
Speaker 2: remarkable how bad he was, and I don't I think
Speaker 2: quite a lot of people didn't pay attention to because
Speaker 2: the Angels were irrelevant for so much of the season,
Speaker 2: but he really really fell off badly, and he was
Speaker 2: somebody who I think, you know, if you'd ask people
Speaker 2: a year prior, they would have said, you know, good,
Speaker 2: good age twenty four season looks like he's going to
Speaker 2: kick on and be catch in the future, And now
Speaker 2: it's you know, is he going to have a roster
Speaker 2: spot in a year or two? Times? Because that's how
Speaker 2: bad he looks in the second half last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm probably one of those people who
Speaker 1: would have been like, this guy has the potential to
Speaker 1: be like a top five catcher in baseball or from
Speaker 1: from from what we saw, and it's completely netly in
Speaker 1: the wrong direction. And then yeah, like Donaheim, is anybody
Speaker 1: even going to give him a deal? Like when you
Speaker 1: end up like barely hitting over the Mendoza line and
Speaker 1: you're just showing that sort of decline. I think, obviously
Speaker 1: as a Cleveland fan, watching Nolan Jones come back and
Speaker 1: stink was was also a bit.
Speaker 3: Of a a bit of a hard one. He was
Speaker 3: definitely for me one of those.
Speaker 1: One of his players, one of those prospects where I
Speaker 1: think I'd finally really gotten into baseball, and I was like,
Speaker 1: he was probably the first big prospect at Cleveland, and
Speaker 1: I was like, well, he's obviously not going to play
Speaker 1: third base, where he was spent his whole entire time
Speaker 1: in the minors, and because we have Isaia Ramirez and
Speaker 1: watching him be forced to train in other places kind
Speaker 1: of be bad. Then go to Colorado and do okay
Speaker 1: for a season and then come back and it was like, oh, yay, no,
Speaker 1: not Yeah, I don't think we can really expect too
Speaker 1: much from him. Just ask what do you think of
Speaker 1: do we think we've seen the last of Josh Pedison?
Speaker 1: Do you think like he's going to be given much
Speaker 1: opportunities in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: I think people will probably keep trying Jock as the
Speaker 2: platoon bat as long as he hangs around the majors.
Speaker 2: I think this is the kind of profile left handed hitter,
Speaker 2: you know, pretty long track record of being great ans rieties.
Speaker 2: I think unless you know that the battered ball metrics
Speaker 2: just completely crater, you know, it seems like it's about
Speaker 2: to be this gone or something. I think there'll still
Speaker 2: be teams out there who say, yeah, we need we
Speaker 2: need a platoon guy. You know, we know Jock can
Speaker 2: do it now. Everybody has the DH now, but obviously
Speaker 2: that his one utility. You know, he can't play the
Speaker 2: field anymore. Really, you can't give him a whiff of
Speaker 2: left handers. So if he isn't going to mash righties,
Speaker 2: I think that his career might be pretty short from
Speaker 2: here right out, this is this is probably it. This season.
Speaker 2: We might see him bounce around a few places if
Speaker 2: he doesn't start hot, but yeah, you can't argue with
Speaker 2: the track record. You know, this is a guy who's
Speaker 2: perhaps a pretty incredible offensive seasons purely on the basis
Speaker 2: of being able to hit right handed pitching.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be interesting if he ends up being one
Speaker 1: of those guys that gets like put on the waivers
Speaker 1: by four different teams and picked up and somehow end
Speaker 1: up on a season roster because he has a like
Speaker 1: a hot a hot like August and September.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could definitely see that kind of trajectory for
Speaker 2: his year.
Speaker 1: Okay, so let's move on to pictures. Try to do
Speaker 1: a similar thing. Looked at rape based war and tried
Speaker 1: to see basically which pictures outperformed that. This one ended
Speaker 1: up getting a little bit muddied because we have pictures
Speaker 1: who have moved gone from starters to relievers and therefore
Speaker 1: have performed better than expectations.
Speaker 3: But I think there are some of the names.
Speaker 1: You'd expect in here, and then we have some far
Speaker 1: more interesting names to potentially discuss Darius. But the names
Speaker 1: that we have are Sean Nukom, Jansen, jug Hases Lozado,
Speaker 1: Chris Bubitch, Nathan i Abaldi, Jimmy Herget, Christopher Sanchez, Jacob Letz,
Speaker 1: Carol Ay.
Speaker 3: And Chad Patrick.
Speaker 1: Now from perfectly honest like Evaldi, Sanchez, Hazes Liza. They
Speaker 1: were the names that I was expecting to be on
Speaker 1: this list. I kind of really hadn't thought about the
Speaker 1: other seven at any point during the season, Darius, I
Speaker 1: don't know if that was the same for you. Maybe
Speaker 1: Chad Patrick. Actually, I will say I didn't think about
Speaker 1: Chad Patrick. I got a bit of time.
Speaker 2: I definitely thought about Chad Patrick, primarily because Chad Patrick
Speaker 2: was not a guy I had thought about at all
Speaker 2: before the season, and then it was a very Brewers
Speaker 2: thing to be like, hey, here's this random guy from
Speaker 2: Triple A. Guess what he's good. So that was like
Speaker 2: extremely Milwaukee. I thought about Jake Latts a bit, just
Speaker 2: because the Rangers kind of had the hey what happened
Speaker 2: to when you have a rotation that is full of
Speaker 2: guys whose health you can't trust. Surprisingly, it wasn't Jacob
Speaker 2: de Grom's fault, but you know, if Oldly got her
Speaker 2: and Tyler Marley got hurt, it's like, well, obviously, but
Speaker 2: also we need somebody to be in the rotation. And
Speaker 2: Jake Latz actually came out of the bullpen and did
Speaker 2: a pretty good job for them. So yeah, him, I
Speaker 2: kind of see it. And then something other, Yeah, Jansen
Speaker 2: Junk was not somebody I was thinking about. I guess
Speaker 2: you know, he did have an all right season, but
Speaker 2: it was not somebody I was like, Oh, yeah, he
Speaker 2: had a fantastic beat. The projections type year wasn't the
Speaker 2: top of mind.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw this list and that was the first
Speaker 1: name that jumped out, And then I had to go like, okay,
Speaker 1: so I have to now look some more to be like,
Speaker 1: what's going on here? And then be like, oh, once again,
Speaker 1: this is all based on like fangrafts data and so
Speaker 1: like then to see that like, oh, he has like
Speaker 1: an FIP that is like a whole run lower than
Speaker 1: his era, to be like, what is going on here?
Speaker 1: How has he suddenly managed to drop his war crate
Speaker 1: to one per nine instead of like two per nine
Speaker 1: and have a really low like flyball rate?
Speaker 3: Is any of this.
Speaker 1: Potentially like going to be better? And then looked look
Speaker 1: at it even more. You realized that he started the
Speaker 1: season as kind of like a long man out of
Speaker 1: the bench, like out of the pen and did really
Speaker 1: quite well actually for for for Miami had had an
Speaker 1: instance of throwing like five shutout innings as as a
Speaker 1: long relief and then went to start and kind of
Speaker 1: slowly got worse as the season game on, but still
Speaker 1: not like bad, like still like actually like performed. I
Speaker 1: think most people had anticipated that he would be bad
Speaker 1: and he wasn't.
Speaker 2: Do you know what I thought of when I saw
Speaker 2: jazz and junks peripherals And you will get this as
Speaker 2: a Cleveland fan, Josh Tomlin, Oh, just Josh never walks
Speaker 2: anybody Tommlin And it did. It did work for a
Speaker 2: little while there, right, you know, the fact he walked
Speaker 2: guys so infrequently that even though he struck out rate
Speaker 2: was kind of terrible, it's still kind of played the
Speaker 2: years that the bad ball luck.
Speaker 3: Was good at least.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's it, and it's but it's just like, yeah,
Speaker 1: there's no belief that that's gonna gonna happen. There. There's
Speaker 1: always a bit more interesting with Sean Newcombe. I think
Speaker 1: his go from starting to then going into the bullpen
Speaker 1: when he's switched over to the age or he switched
Speaker 1: over to a bullpen roll when he was at Boston
Speaker 1: as well, but going over and doing that and potentially
Speaker 1: doing that in the stadium that we've already discussed.
Speaker 3: That was a bit of a surprise.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was not an easy place to pitch. And
Speaker 2: we were talking a bit about you can before just
Speaker 2: in that he's had quite a weird career, like well
Speaker 2: regarded prospect, good start to his major league career, then
Speaker 2: looked like he might just end up out of baseball
Speaker 2: in a couple of years. He drops off so severely.
Speaker 2: So yeah, not an unfamiliar route. I suppose for a
Speaker 2: guy to flame out as starter and then come back
Speaker 2: and be a successful reliever. It just seems to have
Speaker 2: taken him quite a long time to achieve that successful
Speaker 2: reliever part. So we'll see whether he can keep it up.
Speaker 2: He's landed in a great place to get a lot
Speaker 2: of run with the White Sogs. You know that they
Speaker 2: should be well prepared to give him a relatively prominent
Speaker 2: role and that bullpen, and you know she's playing well
Speaker 2: then dealing with the deadline I expect. So nice nice
Speaker 2: to see you come come back and have a four season.
Speaker 2: I think it had been seven eight years or something
Speaker 2: since we'd already seen him have like a good, good
Speaker 2: old run in the big league, so fair place to him.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm not not not buying really that he's
Speaker 2: going to be an elite reliever going forward.
Speaker 3: Okay, so I'm going to split this into two parts then, Darius.
Speaker 1: The ones that we have that are starters and the
Speaker 1: ones that we have with the believers of are kind
Speaker 1: of like starting five in the Abaldi Sanchez, Lozardo be
Speaker 1: Richard Patrick.
Speaker 3: Which which one of those five you are you buying.
Speaker 2: Most Christopher Sanchez?
Speaker 3: I was.
Speaker 2: I was all in. Actually, if you'd given me these
Speaker 2: two war numbers at the start of last year and
Speaker 2: said which one do you think he would be closer to?
Speaker 2: I would have picked the one he actually got because
Speaker 2: I was I was on Sanchez in fantasy. I was
Speaker 2: drafting him everywhere. I was big Sanchez guys. So it
Speaker 2: was fantastic to see him up to that potential and
Speaker 2: I didn't see anything to think that it was a floke.
Speaker 2: He genuinely look like one of the best starts in baseball,
Speaker 2: could easily if won the Cy Young in a weaker
Speaker 2: year in a league where Paul Skins doesn't exist. I
Speaker 2: think that was Christopher Sanchez's awards. So yeah, very encouraged
Speaker 2: by his development, and I think this is legit. I
Speaker 2: think we can easily see another five plus win from him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do have to say, I think I did
Speaker 1: actually remove Paul Skins from this list because you thought
Speaker 1: it was unfair. Yeah, I think I did it with
Speaker 1: Otani as well, because I'm just like, now, like it's
Speaker 1: like even Judge nearly hit the bottom of like the
Speaker 1: top ten, and I'm just like, it's more just projection.
Speaker 1: Don't for the top guys, they don't. They're not willing
Speaker 1: to basically say the regress too hard.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not going to say they're going to be
Speaker 1: ten win players. They're going to say they're going to
Speaker 1: be eight or six or whatever. So I knew they
Speaker 1: were going to be good, and they just had another
Speaker 1: bloody good season. I don't think anybody really thinks that
Speaker 1: Sken's performed out of his skin, but obviously heformed out
Speaker 1: of his skin, but out of like any kind of
Speaker 1: like major expectations, whereas a few of these others did.
Speaker 1: I think Sanchez is the is the obvious answer here,
Speaker 1: Like Ivaldi would be cool if it would would continue
Speaker 1: like that and they see what Zada can continue to
Speaker 1: do with Philadelphia. But like, no, I think you can't
Speaker 1: really look past Sanchez. I think he's going to have
Speaker 1: to be considered a top ten picture this season. I
Speaker 1: think once once those sorts of like fantasy drafts start
Speaker 1: to continue as well, it's going to be going in
Speaker 1: a much higher position than he was going the previous year.
Speaker 1: Is it wrong to basically say that, like, Evaldi is
Speaker 1: probably the one that you have the least I'll say
Speaker 1: I think Evaldi is the one that I have the
Speaker 1: least confidence to be able to produce this sort of thing.
Speaker 1: Like obviously, the injury doesn't help to what you do
Speaker 1: with that, especially where he is in his career, because
Speaker 1: when we get to talk to some of the negative performers,
Speaker 1: all the most underachievers compared to projections, coming back from
Speaker 1: injuries as a picture is a pretty hard thing to do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, ive Al has never had a glittering injury history.
Speaker 2: You know him making burrants? Shall we say? He was
Speaker 2: on his way to a sub two ERA season when
Speaker 2: he was on the mound last year, So I guess
Speaker 2: that's a point in his favor. He has always looked
Speaker 2: pretty good when he's pitched. Not that good, but you know,
Speaker 2: like a well above average starter. It's just been the
Speaker 2: staying on the mound apart that's been tough for him.
Speaker 2: But yeah, again like George Springer's thirty six, a thirty
Speaker 2: six next season, and yeah, it's it's just not a
Speaker 2: thing that you should be betting on with pictures. Really,
Speaker 2: I think there are some red flags for Chris Boubage
Speaker 2: maintaining the performance that he had as well. You know,
Speaker 2: I don't think he was going to stick at that
Speaker 2: level of season, and then he got hurt as well.
Speaker 2: The Royals kind of said he kept saying it was
Speaker 2: going to come back, and he didn't, so that was
Speaker 2: that was kind of a concerning layoff. So yeah, injuries
Speaker 2: are good injury, but given everything else that's gone on
Speaker 2: with evolving in his career and how old he is,
Speaker 2: I think sadly you wouldn't really want to bet on
Speaker 2: him out performing anything next season.
Speaker 1: And given the relievers are pot look at best Darius,
Speaker 1: who do we think is going to continue to have
Speaker 1: a just say a below three e ra A as a.
Speaker 2: Reliever in twenty twenty six below three, which is these guys, Yeah,
Speaker 2: this literally anything could happen, he can't it. Who do
Speaker 2: I look off, you know, I haven't. I can't even
Speaker 2: say I've even looked at Kyle Lee's performance in terms
Speaker 2: of his underlying stuff, So it doesn't look great. Actually,
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go ahead and stick with Jake Latts
Speaker 2: because he's probably the one that I did follow the
Speaker 2: most last season. He made some nice improvements. Whether the
Speaker 2: Rangers actually start or relieve him more often, I guess
Speaker 2: is up for debate. But now that they've got be
Speaker 2: Kenzie Gore in the fold, that might well push Lat's
Speaker 2: back to the ballpen. A lot of that depends on
Speaker 2: Kumar Rocker in Jack Whiter's development as well, I suppose,
Speaker 2: But yeah, he made some nice strides last season, so
Speaker 2: I'll go with him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's one of the ones. Like I saw a
Speaker 1: few appearances from him every now and then. But I
Speaker 1: was watching a few games towards the end of the
Speaker 1: last season, just playing the I started to play the
Speaker 1: roulette of I'm just going to turn on the game
Speaker 1: that like, I've not watched much of these two teams
Speaker 1: play last season, and I saw him strike out the
Speaker 1: Reds in an inning. Not particularly hard maybe, but he
Speaker 1: looked pretty impressive. That now it obviously it's difficult to
Speaker 1: go from like can you continue to do that? He's
Speaker 1: not a lights out, strikeout like pitcher, so as a reliever,
Speaker 1: I think the concern more with him is he might
Speaker 1: get put in higher leverage situations after having the good
Speaker 1: the good season, and might have to face.
Speaker 3: Some better batters.
Speaker 1: I always I always worry about this sometimes with the
Speaker 1: those middle relievers who kind of end up doing well
Speaker 1: and you're like, well, did you actually face anybody good?
Speaker 2: No, every game you brought and got brought into was
Speaker 2: like against six, seven, eight in the lineup, and you're
Speaker 2: already down by six rounds and.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so no, I just just to take my random punt.
Speaker 1: It's it's one in four, or actually, dearly, it might
Speaker 1: not even be one in four.
Speaker 3: It could be all all four of these could be terrible.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six, and we never really had a
Speaker 1: chance of picking someone who who was good, okay pitching
Speaker 1: under performers. I think this is a list where I
Speaker 1: think I predicted I think eight out of the ten people,
Speaker 1: I think this is probably the one list where I
Speaker 1: was most confident in who I thought was a pitching underperformer.
Speaker 1: The list is Walker Buler Spencer, Strider, Bryce Miller, Max
Speaker 1: Schas Antonius and Szella, Dustin May Heremen Marquez, Aaron Nola,
Speaker 1: Chris Paddock, and Sandy Alcantra. This is.
Speaker 3: At one point, who's who have pitchers?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess to underperform you have to have had
Speaker 1: some track record to make the projection think you're going to.
Speaker 2: Most of these guys were not only high ranked prospects,
Speaker 2: but have also been probably called ices at various points
Speaker 2: in their career, or at least potential aces.
Speaker 3: I would say, yeah, all of.
Speaker 1: These on a kind of pro rat races were projected
Speaker 1: kind of like at least about two wars, So they
Speaker 1: were all basically predicted to be league average given the opportunity,
Speaker 1: not just replacement. And I stuck a little bit through
Speaker 1: like some of these seasons, Like I think for me
Speaker 1: looking through this, you kind of group them into like
Speaker 1: a few kind of like kind of like categories. The
Speaker 1: return from injury guys Strider, Arcantra, Buelah. None of them
Speaker 1: really looked good coming back off their injuries.
Speaker 3: Did they do?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 3: They did not know?
Speaker 2: I think with Strider and Alcantra, certainly with our contra,
Speaker 2: things got better. Yes, the season went on. You know,
Speaker 2: I think there was a point where are was over
Speaker 2: seven eight maybe, you know, it looked really bad, probably
Speaker 2: to the point that it prevented them, the Marlins, from
Speaker 2: getting anything really of real value for him in trade.
Speaker 2: By the end of the season it was still over five.
Speaker 2: But I think he did quite a good job to
Speaker 2: get that down to that level, because it was pretty horrific.
Speaker 2: You know, he looked really out of sorts at the start,
Speaker 2: and we saw maybe not vintage Lcantra, but something a
Speaker 2: lot closer to what people remember pre injury. Yes, three
Speaker 2: thirty three d Ra second half of Sandy, and we
Speaker 2: saw we saw a couple of those you know, classic
Speaker 2: Sandy type pitching deep into game starts as well. I think,
Speaker 2: so I have some confidence that he can at least
Speaker 2: be a good workhorse type guy and maybe we don't
Speaker 2: ever see you know, that Cy Young level again, I
Speaker 2: think Stryder. Yeah, it was concerning to see how much
Speaker 2: he struggled because you know, he was so dominant, unlike
Speaker 2: our Candra, he was really striking everybody out when he
Speaker 2: was pre injury, and you know, you thought, hey, this
Speaker 2: guy is maybe the best picture in baseball and the
Speaker 2: stuff just didn't look like it was all the way back.
Speaker 2: Last year.
Speaker 3: Was like three or four miles an hour down pretty most.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so I think a lot a lot is
Speaker 2: resting on that for him the season. You know, if
Speaker 2: we come out and we see him throwing ninety seven
Speaker 2: and spring training and the slider's popping again, then then
Speaker 2: maybe we'll see him return to those levels. But he
Speaker 2: was always really a two pitch guy, and if you're
Speaker 2: a two pitch guy, that both of those pitches need
Speaker 2: to be real good. You know, he can't live with
Speaker 2: that fastball at ninety five. I don't think the way
Speaker 2: it was. So Yeah, I'm I guess maybe still optimistic
Speaker 2: that he can get back to that level, but I
Speaker 2: wouldn't say confident.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then see the other wise.
Speaker 1: Basically, the two Colorado guys, I don't know, like they've
Speaker 1: both at times done well given the circumstances that they
Speaker 1: play in, but it almost feels that like Sentencella and
Speaker 1: marcz could just get left out there, and Colorado just
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to care about winning games or at least
Speaker 1: trying to keep game close, so they just eat runs
Speaker 1: on every like every now and then.
Speaker 3: That most other teams would be like, yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: we'll pull the guy.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I guess Marquez must have really loved Colorado because
Speaker 2: he signed that extension, which I thought was a bizarre
Speaker 2: choice at the time for somebody who just had that
Speaker 2: opportunity to get out and was pretty well regarded at
Speaker 2: that point in his career as well. You know, everybody
Speaker 2: was kind of like, hey, if we could get this
Speaker 2: guy out of course Field, imagine what his numbers would
Speaker 2: look like. And then he voluntarily decided to stay in
Speaker 2: Corsefield for a few more years, much of which we're
Speaker 2: interrupted by injury. Now it kind of looks like it's
Speaker 2: all gone. You know, he's turn thirty and the stuff's
Speaker 2: not there anymore. Sens Orry is kind of remarkable. He
Speaker 2: sort of feels like a throwback, doesn't he, Like, you
Speaker 2: don't you don't really see pitching lines like this anymore, because,
Speaker 2: like you say, it's kind of a relic of when
Speaker 2: teams would just go, well, you're you're supposed to pitch
Speaker 2: the whole game, aren't you. You know, you just stay
Speaker 2: out there and eat the runs. So you know, he's
Speaker 2: done a good job pitching a discent amount of inks
Speaker 2: for them over the years without ever being hugely successful.
Speaker 2: I guess he's had one year where his ERA was
Speaker 2: under four career five eighteen at this point, which is
Speaker 2: quite impressive for somebody who's thrown eight hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: two innings in the big leagues. Guys don't usually get
Speaker 2: to stick around that long with that kind of performance anymore. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so yeah, fair play to him.
Speaker 1: I think he actually has black ink on his Baseball
Speaker 1: reference page. Bad black ink, well, bad black ink, but hey,
Speaker 1: it's black ink. I think he has like the most
Speaker 1: losses in a season. I think he got it last season.
Speaker 1: I think he had fifteen losses last season, which was
Speaker 1: the most out of anybody.
Speaker 2: Is that because Patrick Corbyn finally didn't take that there
Speaker 2: more than the twenty last Patrick corbyns season? Yeah, obviously.
Speaker 2: Then the other guy is the kind of.
Speaker 1: Like health really didn't play out Sureser May Miller, Like
Speaker 1: I think Miller at times looked okay, but then just
Speaker 1: like just never really performed it anywhere near what we
Speaker 1: were expecting. I think, Darius, you were all in on
Speaker 1: that Seattle pitching staff going into last season. I think
Speaker 1: I had at least one fantasy league where you had
Speaker 1: like three or of not four out of the projected
Speaker 1: starting five.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I did famously draft four of the five Marina starters
Speaker 2: in our UK Invitational league. The one I did not
Speaker 2: was Bryce Miller, So I guess that maybe speaks to
Speaker 2: my level of confidence going into last year. I didn't
Speaker 2: think he was going to be this bad. But yeah,
Speaker 2: he really backed up. I mean a lot, a lot
Speaker 2: of the underlying stuff didn't back up his twenty twenty
Speaker 2: four performance. You know, he had that sab three ra
Speaker 2: sor I'm on the surf is you know, maybe a
Speaker 2: strikeout an inning that that era looks pretty good but
Speaker 2: didn't actually miss as many bats as you think. Actually
Speaker 2: gives up quite a lot of hard contact Miller, and
Speaker 2: so when the struck out rad did drop off a
Speaker 2: bit more last season, the control wasn't as good or
Speaker 2: that hurt him a lot more. And he also struggled
Speaker 2: with injury, as did much of the Mariner's rotation. So
Speaker 2: maybe he can he can get back to being you know,
Speaker 2: they don't they don't need him to be a stud.
Speaker 2: You know, they've got they've got the studs. They just
Speaker 2: want him to be a four or a five. So
Speaker 2: I think he can probably still get back and be
Speaker 2: at that level. But yeah, I never never thought that
Speaker 2: Miller was up there with Kirby and Gilbert and blanking
Speaker 2: on his name. Now I should know, Brian will there
Speaker 2: we go. You know those guys. That's that's the trio
Speaker 2: that they are relying on. I think they just need
Speaker 2: Millers to pinch some decent innings at the back of
Speaker 2: that rotation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and probably one of the names that I would
Speaker 1: have definitely expected on the list of this list, and
Speaker 1: probably other people might not have. With Chris Paddock personally,
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the main reasons why Detroit
Speaker 1: didn't beat Cleveland. I spent a lot of the postseason,
Speaker 1: a lot of the the offseason still trying to work
Speaker 1: out how Cleveland won that division last year, because I
Speaker 1: probably sound like a broken record on this podcast about
Speaker 1: how this Cleveland team but it's not good, Like it
Speaker 1: isn't a good team and it only wins because the
Speaker 1: other teams are worse, not because they actually like performed
Speaker 1: particularly well and having like a five and twelve record
Speaker 1: with a five point five point three ra or whatever,
Speaker 1: that's not a Detroit should not be putting out a
Speaker 1: picture like that if they have any intention of winning
Speaker 1: a division, like, there should not be somebody getting that
Speaker 1: amount of game time for a postseason contender.
Speaker 2: Now it's kind of incredible, really. I mean, we do
Speaker 2: rag the Ale Central a lot here, but it does
Speaker 2: very much feel like nobody wants to make that level
Speaker 2: of investment to actually stop believing. You know, we thought
Speaker 2: it was the Twins for a while and they stalled out,
Speaker 2: and now they've gone through this fire sale. The Royals
Speaker 2: always seem to be sort of digging around in this
Speaker 2: like bargain basement tier of players for the most part.
Speaker 2: You know, they've got probably where they extended him, but
Speaker 2: then it's like, yeah, who can we get in the outfield?
Speaker 2: You know, let's we don't we don't want the big stars,
Speaker 2: you know, let's let's get these bargain basement guys instead.
Speaker 2: And then yeah, you've got Detroit given Chris Paddock lots
Speaker 2: of starts in like a really crucial Pennant race. So
Speaker 2: it does very much feel like, no, none of them
Speaker 2: are really serious about this. You know, they could with
Speaker 2: a little bit more investment, maybe we could do something
Speaker 2: about this, but we're not. We're not going to do that.
Speaker 3: We're we're in the AL Central and none of them
Speaker 3: have done that.
Speaker 1: But it's this season either up and coming, so we'll
Speaker 1: probably talk about that in a in a future podcast.
Speaker 1: But when when you look at the AL East and
Speaker 1: the AL Central, I can understand why some people want
Speaker 1: to redistribute the leagues. So these fiveteen is all just
Speaker 1: collectively decided. But what if we don't invest in our team?
Speaker 2: I have a lost update for you, sadly, Antonio, Sincela
Speaker 2: didn't get any black ink last season because he was
Speaker 2: beaten by both Herman Marquez and Kyle Frieland in losses.
Speaker 2: Oh because the Rockies, in case you missed last season,
Speaker 2: lost quite a lot of games. Carl Frilland had seventeen
Speaker 2: last year, seventeen seventeen.
Speaker 3: So sentence, I'll have show.
Speaker 1: He wouldn't have like at fifteen because he would have
Speaker 1: been Corbyn all the time, wouldn't it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Corbyn had I want to say, four
Speaker 2: straight years of lead in the majors and losses. It
Speaker 2: was a pretty incredible run. It looks like twenty one
Speaker 2: he was sixteen, he was a leader. He had nineteen
Speaker 2: and twenty two three he led the NL, but not
Speaker 2: the League. It looks like with fifteen and then he
Speaker 2: only had thirteen in twenty four, so I'm doing him
Speaker 2: a disservice. Yeah, and then it was you know, well
Speaker 2: he wasn't. It was like a replacement, I wele picture
Speaker 2: for the Rangers last year. But he did there one
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five innings for them, which is what
Speaker 2: Patrick Corbyn does yet still unsigned, I believe. So whoever
Speaker 2: is out there in spring training and somebody goes down
Speaker 2: and they're like, we need some innings, Patrick Corbyn is
Speaker 2: waiting to call Patrick Corbyn if you want. If you
Speaker 2: want thirty starts, Patrick Corbyn is your man.
Speaker 1: Okay, I think I might know your answer, and it
Speaker 1: probably is Sandy Lcantra. But is he the one that
Speaker 1: you're predicting to have for the biggest bounce back in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, based on the way he trended
Speaker 2: over that second half, I think, you know, he he
Speaker 2: should be fully healthy. He's had a long time to
Speaker 2: sort of recover from that injury. Now, there are several
Speaker 2: names on the list who I think, you know, Yeah,
Speaker 2: you either, I don't think are going to really make
Speaker 2: a full seasons worth of starts, or if they do,
Speaker 2: they're not going to be worth using like sense of teller.
Speaker 2: I guess Aaron Noner is a weird one because we've
Speaker 2: seen him have great seasons, but he really did look
Speaker 2: quite cooked last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I felt with no other there were just like
Speaker 1: he always had the odd blow up. And this is
Speaker 1: the same for a lot of pictures that like they'll
Speaker 1: have like eighty percent of their starts will be quality starts,
Speaker 1: and then they have two or three where they give
Speaker 1: up like a lot.
Speaker 3: But he seemed to be giving up the long ball
Speaker 3: like a lot more than I expected.
Speaker 2: Yeah, is the home run problems have been kind of
Speaker 2: prevalent in the last three seasons or so.
Speaker 3: He is really really.
Speaker 2: Getting bitten by those. And he used to, you know,
Speaker 2: have a bit better command, and he's not. He's never
Speaker 2: it was never like kind of blow you away type guy.
Speaker 2: It was a bit more craft than that. And it
Speaker 2: seems like maybe that the controllers sit a little bit
Speaker 2: on that and everything has gone away with it. He
Speaker 2: also obviously picture got hurt last season, but it does
Speaker 2: feel like that the knife is not there on those
Speaker 2: pictures anymore. And I'm not super optimistic coming into his
Speaker 2: what are we now age thirty three season again, a
Speaker 2: guy who has been pretty durable over the course of
Speaker 2: his here out outside of last season, but it feels
Speaker 2: like the time might be find me running out for Nola.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the only thing I'm thinking about Nola right
Speaker 1: now was if he's going to end up facing Team
Speaker 1: GB and he's as he's on the Italian Robster for
Speaker 1: the w the WBC. There are parts of my head
Speaker 1: that are just like, imagine if I Team GM lit
Speaker 1: up like Aaron Nola and Clayton Hershaw and.
Speaker 2: They're sort of great starting pictures that are at the
Speaker 2: ends of their careers that yeah.
Speaker 3: Yes, uh yeah, I don't disagree.
Speaker 1: I think our country should anyone who should any form
Speaker 1: kind of like in any improvements kind of like throughout
Speaker 1: that season, I didn't see here. I was looking at
Speaker 1: the details when I was looking at some notes looking
Speaker 1: into Marquez that on his road starts against other teams
Speaker 1: in the NL West, he had a fourteen point seven ERA,
Speaker 1: so like that was even outside of course I get that,
Speaker 1: like there's part of that is the Dodgers and the
Speaker 1: Padres and the Giants went bad, but it was just like,
Speaker 1: this is your chance to kind of bring the number down.
Speaker 2: He has had an unfortunate run. I mean, as you know,
Speaker 2: the Giants are bid, yes, but you know, the Dodgers
Speaker 2: are an absolute juggernaut. The Padres have had a pretty
Speaker 2: good offense for most of this period he's been in Colorado.
Speaker 2: The Diamondbacks lineup is pretty good. Like, he does not
Speaker 2: have life very easy, even aside from pitching in cause, yeah,
Speaker 2: that that division is is not the easiest place to pitch. So, yeah,
Speaker 2: I feel feel bad for the guy. He was definitely
Speaker 2: right up there. You know, he was close to ace
Speaker 2: level picture at one point in his career.
Speaker 1: Okay, And I think it's been easy to maybe say, so,
Speaker 1: who's going to have a bad one? So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: I'm gonna limit your options to Spencer Strider, Bryce Miller,
Speaker 1: and Aaron Nola. Which one of those three do you
Speaker 1: think is going to continue at this level of performance
Speaker 1: the most.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take Nola. I think he's he's the oldest.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: You know that the downward trenders has been going on
Speaker 2: for a couple of years now, and I just I
Speaker 2: don't see that stuff coming back at age thirty three. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we've seen great pitches learn different way to pitch, I suppose,
Speaker 2: and that that is a possibility. But Philadelphia not an
Speaker 2: easy place to pitch, and I didn't really see any
Speaker 2: signs last season of life, So I'm going to take him.
Speaker 2: I think Midder and Strida are both young enough that
Speaker 2: even if they don't get back to their peak levels,
Speaker 2: I think they'll still have good productive seasons.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I think that's I might take Strida just because,
Speaker 1: as you said earlier on, when you're a two pitch
Speaker 1: pitcher and you don't have both of those pictures working
Speaker 1: at their best, like, how long can you actually stay
Speaker 1: at the picture?
Speaker 3: Obviously like he didn't. He didn't perform horrendously like this season.
Speaker 3: It just wasn't.
Speaker 1: The the potential side young winner that he was beforehand.
Speaker 1: And I think, do we just have to get adjust
Speaker 1: to that his new norm is league average and not
Speaker 1: like top five, top ten pitcher.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's there's still quite a big gap between those
Speaker 2: two things. We've we've seen it, I guess is the thing,
Speaker 2: you know, is one thing to say or we think
Speaker 2: this guy could be a nice but we have seen
Speaker 2: him be an AE. You know, we know that that's
Speaker 2: in there, So yeah, one of those that I do think.
Speaker 2: You know, they say not to worry about the spring
Speaker 2: training too much, but I do think it will be
Speaker 2: very revealing to come out and see what those numbers
Speaker 2: look like on the on the gun.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's it's in the spring. Honestly, a pictures
Speaker 1: Vila with one of the probably the only things you
Speaker 1: can actually judge in pre season training, to be like, well,
Speaker 1: can they throw the wall as hard as they could before?
Speaker 3: Yes? Or no? Like that gives you a pretty a
Speaker 3: pretty good idea.
Speaker 1: All right, thank you Darius for going through this wonderful
Speaker 1: list of players with me. We will hopefully be back
Speaker 1: in the not to dis the future with that World
Speaker 1: Baseball Classic podcast that we have teased a few times now.
Speaker 1: We will be waiting for the rosters to be released
Speaker 1: on the fifth of February, so it will probably get
Speaker 1: to you early next week with that. As I said
Speaker 1: also at the start there, there's plenty of good content
Speaker 1: out on the website right now. Please do go check
Speaker 1: that out at bat person nerds dot com if you
Speaker 1: want to write something for the website. Gavin is looking
Speaker 1: for five reasons for optimism for all of the teams
Speaker 1: in the major leagues. If you are a fan of Cleveland,
Speaker 1: maybe someone else can have five reasons for optimism, because
Speaker 1: I don't. I think I'm going to struggle to write
Speaker 1: five five reasons for optimism this season for Cleveland if
Speaker 1: it falls, if it falls back on me, I don't
Speaker 1: know if you've got five reasons for optimism, Darius at
Speaker 1: San Francisco, but.
Speaker 2: I could give you to give them to you, and
Speaker 2: now I suppose and then make Gaff type them up
Speaker 2: for the website. I know he has to pitch this
Speaker 2: to fans of quite a few teams in our various chats,
Speaker 2: and I think you said more than one response of
Speaker 2: I don't have five, or sometimes I don't have one,
Speaker 2: which I think I might have been the thread of
Speaker 2: the podcast. Nick Rights responses. So I think Gav has
Speaker 2: actually written up the Jews himself based on that from Mick. Yeah,
Speaker 2: the Giants, it's so mid it's it's quite distressing. And
Speaker 2: I am in a Giants fan chat and they sort
Speaker 2: of that the hope that Posey's going to make the
Speaker 2: big move has been waning with every passing, Adrian Hawser
Speaker 2: and Luis a Riess signing, So the.
Speaker 1: Only optimism that I have is that I'm now pretty
Speaker 1: certain that Jeszi Mi Jose Ramirez is going to have
Speaker 1: a Cleveland cap, a Cleveland cap on his Hall of
Speaker 1: Fame plaque.
Speaker 2: So dude just loves Cleveland. What can we say?
Speaker 3: What can we say? Yeah? So, thank you, Darius.
Speaker 1: Do you have anything have you been writing anything for
Speaker 1: Baseball Prospectus recently that people should be waiting for or
Speaker 1: is it just about is it all about the actual
Speaker 1: prospectus itself?
Speaker 2: The Prospectus? Yeah, it's it's done, it's printed. I'm not
Speaker 2: sure exactly when they're going out, but you can. You
Speaker 2: can certainly pre order your copies now. So yeah, you
Speaker 2: do go and check that out. In case people don't
Speaker 2: know what Baseball Prospectives anueal is. It's basically a very
Speaker 2: large book about every team in the majors. We preview
Speaker 2: about We do about sixty to seventy full player profiles
Speaker 2: per team, and then there's a bunch of essays in there,
Speaker 2: lots of great statistical analysis. There's prospect lists. You know,
Speaker 2: we've got our top one hundred and one prospects in there,
Speaker 2: great analysis from our prospect team. So if you're just
Speaker 2: you know, you want to get a preview of the season.
Speaker 2: You want to say, who's who's on each team this season.
Speaker 2: I don't know about these players. I want to find
Speaker 2: out about this players. You all our advanced stats, all
Speaker 2: are analysis, it's all in there. It's really great. Some
Speaker 2: of the comments are so funny as well. We've got
Speaker 2: a lot of really talented writers, so definitely worth picking
Speaker 2: up for something a bit different than just your usual
Speaker 2: pre season blurb on the you know, the news aggregator
Speaker 2: websites or whatever. It's certainly a different, different flavor of previews,
Speaker 2: so highly recommend. And yes, I did the Dodgers this year,
Speaker 2: which I think was the first time in a long
Speaker 2: time that I've had not a terrrible team, So it
Speaker 2: was quite quite enjoyable. Over the years I've had like
Speaker 2: the Rockies and the Angels and all these depressing clubs
Speaker 2: where i feel like I'm just being negative for sixty comments,
Speaker 2: So it was quite nice to be like, hey, this
Speaker 2: is a great team, and they won the World Series
Speaker 2: and they played like the most ridiculous postseason games ever,
Speaker 2: so I've got to have a lot of fun with
Speaker 2: their comments.
Speaker 1: So sneak preview, You've obviously just predicted the Dodgers to
Speaker 1: win again. Yeah, there'll be the new Yankees well because
Speaker 1: this time Brenner has lost his wallet.
Speaker 3: Right. I hope you will have all enjoyed this.
Speaker 1: As always, you can follow us about Underscore Nerds on
Speaker 1: Twitter or Buttforts and Nerds on Instagram and touch.
Speaker 3: Please do check.
Speaker 1: Out the website. Please you check out our YouTube channel
Speaker 1: if you would like. If you listen to do this
Speaker 1: in an audio format, you can see Darius and I
Speaker 1: having a chat to see him in his lovely San
Speaker 1: Francisco jacket and.
Speaker 2: This is this is the best thing that happened to
Speaker 2: the Giants this offseason, my jacket.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can come see to see the images
Speaker 1: of me with my Andy Brown painting in the back,
Speaker 1: which how has its new place permanently, permanently hung up.
Speaker 3: So yes, right, thank
Speaker 1: You, and we'll hopefully see you or listen to you
Speaker 1: listening to us again in the future