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<v Speaker 1>It's fine for weather Wednesday with Iman Fox thirty one

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<v Speaker 1>Chief meteorologist Dave Fraser. Dave, we don't worry about that.

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<v Speaker 1>We usually I forgot to tell Zach's filling in for

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<v Speaker 1>a Rod, and I forgot to tell him. We usually

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<v Speaker 1>just come back with that intro. But it's okay, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>get it next week day next time.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, how is it's like next week?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? There you go.

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<v Speaker 3>How are you?

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Fraser?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm going, well, how are you doing? Mandy?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing nice. I gotta tell you, I have enjoyed

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<v Speaker 1>the heck out of the last few days. How incredibly

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<v Speaker 1>pleasant this weather is for winter? I mean, lees, this

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<v Speaker 1>is very nice. When is it going to go away?

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<v Speaker 3>Starting over the weekend? Slowly over the weekend, we'll see

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<v Speaker 3>the temperatures coming down, and then it does look to

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<v Speaker 3>trend colder next week. So we've enjoyed yet a nice,

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<v Speaker 3>nice little break from the winter. I'm seeing parts of

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<v Speaker 3>my lawn that I haven't seen for the entire month

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<v Speaker 3>of January. Yes, no, and the piles and finally melted away.

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<v Speaker 3>So no, it's been fantastic. We started the month at

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<v Speaker 3>fifty six last Saturday. Then we went to sixty seven

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<v Speaker 3>last Sunday sixty eight. Monday yesterday was a little chilly

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<v Speaker 3>with that low clouds and fog. We're only in the

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<v Speaker 3>thirties forties. However, if you're on the south and west

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<v Speaker 3>side of town down where I live on the south

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<v Speaker 3>side of town.

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<v Speaker 2>We're still in the fifties.

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<v Speaker 3>So it just depends on your location. And we're back in.

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<v Speaker 2>The sixties today.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, fifties and sixties through the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>week and then next week get ready for some thirties

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<v Speaker 3>but no Arctic blast and periods of snow, but no

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<v Speaker 3>organized storm till maybe next Tuesday we might get some

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<v Speaker 3>light snow.

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<v Speaker 1>I got a very specific texture question for you that

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<v Speaker 1>I think we might be a little too far out

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<v Speaker 1>to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Mandy, I

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<v Speaker 1>live in the Springs and need to travel the long

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<v Speaker 1>lunch on Valentine's Day. Well, we have snow on February fourteenth,

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<v Speaker 1>and will it affect my travel plans?

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<v Speaker 3>So it is outside of the seven day to give

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<v Speaker 3>me anything anytime I get viewer emails like that that

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<v Speaker 3>are outside of anything that I have confidence.

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<v Speaker 2>In, unless I know there's a strong pattern.

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<v Speaker 3>Of quiet days or something like that. I tend not

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<v Speaker 3>to want to give them too much hope or anything,

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<v Speaker 3>you know that is a little bit outside right now

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<v Speaker 3>of our seven day forecast, I will say that as

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<v Speaker 3>I look at the trend for next week, while we'll

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<v Speaker 3>dip into the thirties and we'll maybe have some lights

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<v Speaker 3>in the middle of the week, I do always look

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<v Speaker 3>out ten days, but again, the confidence drops off after

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<v Speaker 3>you get past seven. And I do see a dryer

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<v Speaker 3>pattern as we get towards next Friday, which is Valentine's

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<v Speaker 3>Day a week from this coming Friday, and it does

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<v Speaker 3>look dry and it doesn't look like temperatures will come

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<v Speaker 3>back up into the forties. So at this point I

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<v Speaker 3>would say, looked in good, but don't put your hat

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<v Speaker 3>on it just yet.

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<v Speaker 1>There you go. I want to ask, honestly, I can't

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<v Speaker 1>remember if it was yesterday the day before, but we

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<v Speaker 1>had a big brown cloud over the front range. Was

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<v Speaker 1>that just an ozone situation? What causes those brown cloud

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<v Speaker 1>days to what? It just settles on to the front range.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that you're talking about yesterday.

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<v Speaker 3>Yesterday wasn't It was a little bit of pollutants, but

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<v Speaker 3>more it was kind.

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<v Speaker 2>Of like a dirty hage. Yeah, we had very We

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<v Speaker 2>had very cold air Arctic are that slid into the Midwest.

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<v Speaker 3>That clipped the northeast corner. Think of Sterling julesbd up

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<v Speaker 3>the ice seventy sixth quarter and they.

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<v Speaker 2>Were entrenched in this low.

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<v Speaker 3>Dense cloud deck on Monday when we were in the sixties.

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<v Speaker 3>And then yesterday the wind turned out of the east

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<v Speaker 3>northeast and pushed.

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<v Speaker 2>All of that back to Denver. So Denver's official high

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<v Speaker 2>at the airport yesterday was only thirty sixth degrees.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow, it was that.

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<v Speaker 2>Low cloud deck that you're talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>There was a foggy, kind of cold, misty hay that

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<v Speaker 3>may have had some pollutants trapped in it that made

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<v Speaker 3>it look like a brown cloud. It wasn't a perfect

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<v Speaker 3>brown cloud setup, but it certainly was an ugly looking

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<v Speaker 3>sky for the better part of your Tuesday and night.

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<v Speaker 1>So you said that wasn't pollutants, So what exactly makes that?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it just dust and other crap or what makes

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<v Speaker 1>it look like that?

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<v Speaker 3>No, it is probably the pollutants trapped in that cold

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<v Speaker 3>dense there in the lower level. So it was a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit of that, But a brown cloud generally what

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<v Speaker 3>we have is we have a flipped atmosphere where instead

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<v Speaker 3>of it the temperatures dropping as you rise, you've got

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<v Speaker 3>warmer air sitting over top of cold air, and that

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<v Speaker 3>can happen as a long flow out of the Westerns

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<v Speaker 3>over the top of the mountains and traps all the

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<v Speaker 3>air blow range. And that's when we think of a

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<v Speaker 3>brown cloud, and then everything it's like it's a lid.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like somebody slid a sliding glass door over the

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<v Speaker 3>top of the mountains and trapped all of the ballutants

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<v Speaker 3>in the lower atmosphere, and you get this ugly brown

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<v Speaker 3>cloud and it's all of the pollutants that are just

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<v Speaker 3>trapping can't lift and mix out of the atmosphere. So

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<v Speaker 3>yesterday I was not that this was more of a

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<v Speaker 3>coldnessty hay spot. When you're dealing with that type of

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<v Speaker 3>a static, kind of calm atmosphere, pollutants can be mixed

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<v Speaker 3>in with that, no question about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, let me ask this question from a texture. It says,

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<v Speaker 1>I've got a serious weather question. If we can't tell

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<v Speaker 1>what the weather is going to be tomorrow with some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of accuracy, how can we tell what it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be in ten or fifty years with the entire climate.

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<v Speaker 1>Explain that Dave in the terms of climate is different

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<v Speaker 1>than weather, but weather makes up climate correct, Yes, exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean the climate climate is a is what you

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<v Speaker 3>would expect in a certain part of the world based

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<v Speaker 3>on you know, thirty year trends or longer trends. So

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<v Speaker 3>you know, you can take the oceans, for instance, west

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<v Speaker 3>coast or in the east sides of ocean oceans that

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<v Speaker 3>flow to west coast borders, like our west coast is cold.

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<v Speaker 3>The other flip side of that is warm. So you

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<v Speaker 3>have bodies of water circulation that have influence and the

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<v Speaker 3>weather storm tracks move from west to east what part

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<v Speaker 3>of the globe you're in. So the climate is what

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<v Speaker 3>you would expect. So in Colorado, you would expect it

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<v Speaker 3>to snow in the winter. In the summer, you would.

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<v Speaker 2>Expect it to be hot in Florida. So those are

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<v Speaker 2>the expectations.

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<v Speaker 3>The record, the forecast for weather, the variability of weather

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<v Speaker 3>is the forecasting within the next seven to ten days.

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<v Speaker 2>The climate is the global picture of what might be happening.

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<v Speaker 3>And they do run sophisticated climate models to kind of

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<v Speaker 3>take a look at White Mighty happening in patterns for

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<v Speaker 3>years to come. But I you and I have taught

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<v Speaker 3>there's just not a lot of components from where.

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<v Speaker 2>I sit, because we talk about eight to fourteen day.

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<v Speaker 3>Outlooks and monthly outlooks and three month outlooks, and barely

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<v Speaker 3>ever did they tell you about that day to day.

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<v Speaker 2>Variability of weather. I'll just give it right.

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<v Speaker 3>The month of February is on track as a month outlook.

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<v Speaker 2>About the entire month is on track to be warmer

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<v Speaker 2>and drier than normal. And we've had four day three

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<v Speaker 2>days in the.

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<v Speaker 3>Sixties and one day in the fifties, so five days

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<v Speaker 3>in you would think that's on track. However, the next

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<v Speaker 3>eight to fourteen days shows it to be colder and

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<v Speaker 3>wetter than normal.

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<v Speaker 2>So again, know, the day to day variability is what we're.

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<v Speaker 3>Left with to you know, that's my job. What is

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<v Speaker 3>going to happen for the next seven to ten days?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay? So and you know, I'm I think that, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I've talked about this a lot on my show. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the climate modeling is sort of like just it's

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<v Speaker 1>an educated crystal ball. There's a lot that goes into it,

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<v Speaker 1>But until we get one thousand years more data, solid data.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be really impossible for us

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<v Speaker 1>to really extrapolate out exactly what may happen in the

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<v Speaker 1>near future. I have one more, We'll go ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I mean that is true. When you have a model,

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<v Speaker 3>it is designed and has algorithms in it to calculate

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<v Speaker 3>what you enter into it and what that might look

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<v Speaker 3>like in the future. That model is based on a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch of standards. However, you're inputting the data, and if

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<v Speaker 3>that data changes or that data is wrong, the output

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<v Speaker 3>of that model is certainly not going to be correct either.

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<v Speaker 3>And those are the challenges of model exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>One last question before we run out of time, Dave,

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<v Speaker 1>and this one is a good one. I think, wait,

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<v Speaker 1>hang on it, We've got an update here. Does smoke

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<v Speaker 1>from the fires provide kernels to form, meaning to the

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<v Speaker 1>particulates that are going up in smoke gather that water?

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<v Speaker 1>But doesn't there have to be enough water in the

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<v Speaker 1>air to make that happen.

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<v Speaker 2>So the atmosphere has water, and it's super cool water

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<v Speaker 2>is what we call it.

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<v Speaker 3>But in order for the super cool particles and the

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<v Speaker 3>finite water particles to condense and grow into rain drops

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<v Speaker 3>or snowflakes. You need what's called condensation nuclei. You need

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<v Speaker 3>some type of a particulate, whether it's a grain of

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<v Speaker 3>salt from sea air, or whether it's a smoke particle

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<v Speaker 3>or any other dust particle, you need something for it

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<v Speaker 3>to attach to and grow.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you look up go to Google and.

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<v Speaker 3>Look up condensation nuclei and it will give you a

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<v Speaker 3>great explanation of how those particles flow around with storm

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<v Speaker 3>system and help to create rain drops and kind of

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<v Speaker 3>give us a better chance of moisture across the area.

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<v Speaker 1>Excellent, all right, Dave Fraser, we'll talk to you next week. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have a much more accurate forecast for our listener

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<v Speaker 1>who's driving to a wedding, you know, because that's what

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<v Speaker 1>we're here for to provide a service. Or you could

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<v Speaker 1>just watch the Great Weather Team on Fox thirty one,

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<v Speaker 1>our partner at KATVR, because they have a very very

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<v Speaker 1>accurate team at there, and so you can find out there. Dave,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll talk to you next week.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, yep.

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<v Speaker 3>We're on all weekend, and don't forget, we've got the Super.

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl, so join us in the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 3>I will be working Sunday night and I will have

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<v Speaker 3>an updated all the way through next weekend. We'll gust

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<v Speaker 3>including Valentine show.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to ask you who got the Super

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<v Speaker 1>Bowl gig because people may not know that that's like

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<v Speaker 1>prime territory for meteorologists to be able to do that

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<v Speaker 1>little snippet in there during the Super Bowl. I'll be

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<v Speaker 1>watching for you, Dave.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, have a great weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, you two. Thank you, Dave Frasier. We'll be

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<v Speaker 1>right back