Speaker 1: It's fine for weather Wednesday with Iman Fox thirty one
Speaker 1: Chief meteorologist Dave Fraser. Dave, we don't worry about that.
Speaker 1: We usually I forgot to tell Zach's filling in for
Speaker 1: a Rod, and I forgot to tell him. We usually
Speaker 1: just come back with that intro. But it's okay, we'll
Speaker 1: get it next week day next time.
Speaker 2: Yes, how is it's like next week?
Speaker 1: Yeah? There you go.
Speaker 3: How are you?
Speaker 1: Dave Fraser?
Speaker 3: I'm going, well, how are you doing? Mandy?
Speaker 1: I'm doing nice. I gotta tell you, I have enjoyed
Speaker 1: the heck out of the last few days. How incredibly
Speaker 1: pleasant this weather is for winter? I mean, lees, this
Speaker 1: is very nice. When is it going to go away?
Speaker 3: Starting over the weekend? Slowly over the weekend, we'll see
Speaker 3: the temperatures coming down, and then it does look to
Speaker 3: trend colder next week. So we've enjoyed yet a nice,
Speaker 3: nice little break from the winter. I'm seeing parts of
Speaker 3: my lawn that I haven't seen for the entire month
Speaker 3: of January. Yes, no, and the piles and finally melted away.
Speaker 3: So no, it's been fantastic. We started the month at
Speaker 3: fifty six last Saturday. Then we went to sixty seven
Speaker 3: last Sunday sixty eight. Monday yesterday was a little chilly
Speaker 3: with that low clouds and fog. We're only in the
Speaker 3: thirties forties. However, if you're on the south and west
Speaker 3: side of town down where I live on the south
Speaker 3: side of town.
Speaker 2: We're still in the fifties.
Speaker 3: So it just depends on your location. And we're back in.
Speaker 2: The sixties today.
Speaker 3: So yeah, fifties and sixties through the end of the
Speaker 3: week and then next week get ready for some thirties
Speaker 3: but no Arctic blast and periods of snow, but no
Speaker 3: organized storm till maybe next Tuesday we might get some
Speaker 3: light snow.
Speaker 1: I got a very specific texture question for you that
Speaker 1: I think we might be a little too far out
Speaker 1: to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Mandy, I
Speaker 1: live in the Springs and need to travel the long
Speaker 1: lunch on Valentine's Day. Well, we have snow on February fourteenth,
Speaker 1: and will it affect my travel plans?
Speaker 3: So it is outside of the seven day to give
Speaker 3: me anything anytime I get viewer emails like that that
Speaker 3: are outside of anything that I have confidence.
Speaker 2: In, unless I know there's a strong pattern.
Speaker 3: Of quiet days or something like that. I tend not
Speaker 3: to want to give them too much hope or anything,
Speaker 3: you know that is a little bit outside right now
Speaker 3: of our seven day forecast, I will say that as
Speaker 3: I look at the trend for next week, while we'll
Speaker 3: dip into the thirties and we'll maybe have some lights
Speaker 3: in the middle of the week, I do always look
Speaker 3: out ten days, but again, the confidence drops off after
Speaker 3: you get past seven. And I do see a dryer
Speaker 3: pattern as we get towards next Friday, which is Valentine's
Speaker 3: Day a week from this coming Friday, and it does
Speaker 3: look dry and it doesn't look like temperatures will come
Speaker 3: back up into the forties. So at this point I
Speaker 3: would say, looked in good, but don't put your hat
Speaker 3: on it just yet.
Speaker 1: There you go. I want to ask, honestly, I can't
Speaker 1: remember if it was yesterday the day before, but we
Speaker 1: had a big brown cloud over the front range. Was
Speaker 1: that just an ozone situation? What causes those brown cloud
Speaker 1: days to what? It just settles on to the front range.
Speaker 2: So I think that you're talking about yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yesterday wasn't It was a little bit of pollutants, but
Speaker 3: more it was kind.
Speaker 2: Of like a dirty hage. Yeah, we had very We
Speaker 2: had very cold air Arctic are that slid into the Midwest.
Speaker 3: That clipped the northeast corner. Think of Sterling julesbd up
Speaker 3: the ice seventy sixth quarter and they.
Speaker 2: Were entrenched in this low.
Speaker 3: Dense cloud deck on Monday when we were in the sixties.
Speaker 3: And then yesterday the wind turned out of the east
Speaker 3: northeast and pushed.
Speaker 2: All of that back to Denver. So Denver's official high
Speaker 2: at the airport yesterday was only thirty sixth degrees.
Speaker 3: Wow, it was that.
Speaker 2: Low cloud deck that you're talking about.
Speaker 3: There was a foggy, kind of cold, misty hay that
Speaker 3: may have had some pollutants trapped in it that made
Speaker 3: it look like a brown cloud. It wasn't a perfect
Speaker 3: brown cloud setup, but it certainly was an ugly looking
Speaker 3: sky for the better part of your Tuesday and night.
Speaker 1: So you said that wasn't pollutants, So what exactly makes that?
Speaker 1: Is it just dust and other crap or what makes
Speaker 1: it look like that?
Speaker 3: No, it is probably the pollutants trapped in that cold
Speaker 3: dense there in the lower level. So it was a
Speaker 3: little bit of that, But a brown cloud generally what
Speaker 3: we have is we have a flipped atmosphere where instead
Speaker 3: of it the temperatures dropping as you rise, you've got
Speaker 3: warmer air sitting over top of cold air, and that
Speaker 3: can happen as a long flow out of the Westerns
Speaker 3: over the top of the mountains and traps all the
Speaker 3: air blow range. And that's when we think of a
Speaker 3: brown cloud, and then everything it's like it's a lid.
Speaker 3: It's like somebody slid a sliding glass door over the
Speaker 3: top of the mountains and trapped all of the ballutants
Speaker 3: in the lower atmosphere, and you get this ugly brown
Speaker 3: cloud and it's all of the pollutants that are just
Speaker 3: trapping can't lift and mix out of the atmosphere. So
Speaker 3: yesterday I was not that this was more of a
Speaker 3: coldnessty hay spot. When you're dealing with that type of
Speaker 3: a static, kind of calm atmosphere, pollutants can be mixed
Speaker 3: in with that, no question about it.
Speaker 1: Okay, let me ask this question from a texture. It says,
Speaker 1: I've got a serious weather question. If we can't tell
Speaker 1: what the weather is going to be tomorrow with some
Speaker 1: sort of accuracy, how can we tell what it's going
Speaker 1: to be in ten or fifty years with the entire climate.
Speaker 1: Explain that Dave in the terms of climate is different
Speaker 1: than weather, but weather makes up climate correct, Yes, exactly.
Speaker 3: I mean the climate climate is a is what you
Speaker 3: would expect in a certain part of the world based
Speaker 3: on you know, thirty year trends or longer trends. So
Speaker 3: you know, you can take the oceans, for instance, west
Speaker 3: coast or in the east sides of ocean oceans that
Speaker 3: flow to west coast borders, like our west coast is cold.
Speaker 3: The other flip side of that is warm. So you
Speaker 3: have bodies of water circulation that have influence and the
Speaker 3: weather storm tracks move from west to east what part
Speaker 3: of the globe you're in. So the climate is what
Speaker 3: you would expect. So in Colorado, you would expect it
Speaker 3: to snow in the winter. In the summer, you would.
Speaker 2: Expect it to be hot in Florida. So those are
Speaker 2: the expectations.
Speaker 3: The record, the forecast for weather, the variability of weather
Speaker 3: is the forecasting within the next seven to ten days.
Speaker 2: The climate is the global picture of what might be happening.
Speaker 3: And they do run sophisticated climate models to kind of
Speaker 3: take a look at White Mighty happening in patterns for
Speaker 3: years to come. But I you and I have taught
Speaker 3: there's just not a lot of components from where.
Speaker 2: I sit, because we talk about eight to fourteen day.
Speaker 3: Outlooks and monthly outlooks and three month outlooks, and barely
Speaker 3: ever did they tell you about that day to day.
Speaker 2: Variability of weather. I'll just give it right.
Speaker 3: The month of February is on track as a month outlook.
Speaker 2: About the entire month is on track to be warmer
Speaker 2: and drier than normal. And we've had four day three
Speaker 2: days in the.
Speaker 3: Sixties and one day in the fifties, so five days
Speaker 3: in you would think that's on track. However, the next
Speaker 3: eight to fourteen days shows it to be colder and
Speaker 3: wetter than normal.
Speaker 2: So again, know, the day to day variability is what we're.
Speaker 3: Left with to you know, that's my job. What is
Speaker 3: going to happen for the next seven to ten days?
Speaker 1: Okay? So and you know, I'm I think that, I mean,
Speaker 1: I've talked about this a lot on my show. I
Speaker 1: think the climate modeling is sort of like just it's
Speaker 1: an educated crystal ball. There's a lot that goes into it,
Speaker 1: But until we get one thousand years more data, solid data.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be really impossible for us
Speaker 1: to really extrapolate out exactly what may happen in the
Speaker 1: near future. I have one more, We'll go ahead.
Speaker 3: No, I mean that is true. When you have a model,
Speaker 3: it is designed and has algorithms in it to calculate
Speaker 3: what you enter into it and what that might look
Speaker 3: like in the future. That model is based on a
Speaker 3: bunch of standards. However, you're inputting the data, and if
Speaker 3: that data changes or that data is wrong, the output
Speaker 3: of that model is certainly not going to be correct either.
Speaker 3: And those are the challenges of model exactly.
Speaker 1: One last question before we run out of time, Dave,
Speaker 1: and this one is a good one. I think, wait,
Speaker 1: hang on it, We've got an update here. Does smoke
Speaker 1: from the fires provide kernels to form, meaning to the
Speaker 1: particulates that are going up in smoke gather that water?
Speaker 1: But doesn't there have to be enough water in the
Speaker 1: air to make that happen.
Speaker 2: So the atmosphere has water, and it's super cool water
Speaker 2: is what we call it.
Speaker 3: But in order for the super cool particles and the
Speaker 3: finite water particles to condense and grow into rain drops
Speaker 3: or snowflakes. You need what's called condensation nuclei. You need
Speaker 3: some type of a particulate, whether it's a grain of
Speaker 3: salt from sea air, or whether it's a smoke particle
Speaker 3: or any other dust particle, you need something for it
Speaker 3: to attach to and grow.
Speaker 2: So if you look up go to Google and.
Speaker 3: Look up condensation nuclei and it will give you a
Speaker 3: great explanation of how those particles flow around with storm
Speaker 3: system and help to create rain drops and kind of
Speaker 3: give us a better chance of moisture across the area.
Speaker 1: Excellent, all right, Dave Fraser, we'll talk to you next week. Well,
Speaker 1: we'll have a much more accurate forecast for our listener
Speaker 1: who's driving to a wedding, you know, because that's what
Speaker 1: we're here for to provide a service. Or you could
Speaker 1: just watch the Great Weather Team on Fox thirty one,
Speaker 1: our partner at KATVR, because they have a very very
Speaker 1: accurate team at there, and so you can find out there. Dave,
Speaker 1: we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2: Yep, yep.
Speaker 3: We're on all weekend, and don't forget, we've got the Super.
Speaker 2: Bowl, so join us in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: I will be working Sunday night and I will have
Speaker 3: an updated all the way through next weekend. We'll gust
Speaker 3: including Valentine show.
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you who got the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl gig because people may not know that that's like
Speaker 1: prime territory for meteorologists to be able to do that
Speaker 1: little snippet in there during the Super Bowl. I'll be
Speaker 1: watching for you, Dave.
Speaker 3: All right, have a great weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, you two. Thank you, Dave Frasier. We'll be
Speaker 1: right back