WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.720 --> 00:00:05.559 Well, elon, you need no introduction, but for those who 2 00:00:05.679 --> 00:00:08.439 don't know, you are the founder and chief engineer of 3 00:00:08.480 --> 00:00:13.720 SpaceX and into the Mars Society, and we're delighted to 4 00:00:13.759 --> 00:00:16.559 have you back. You've got nine thousand people registered to 5 00:00:16.640 --> 00:00:17.320 hear you today. 6 00:00:17.480 --> 00:00:19.079 All right, cool sounds good. 7 00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:21.600 Okay, So usually like. 8 00:00:21.640 --> 00:00:24.480 Change this perspective. Let's say, if I change the perspective, is 9 00:00:24.480 --> 00:00:25.760 that better or is that worse? 10 00:00:26.679 --> 00:00:27.839 I think you were better before? 11 00:00:28.120 --> 00:00:33.000 Okay, okay, so listen. 12 00:00:32.960 --> 00:00:35.000 Uh, why don't we just start out with the basis 13 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:41.799 you started SpaceX to make humanity multiplanetary. Yeah, why do 14 00:00:41.840 --> 00:00:43.320 you see that as a critical goal? 15 00:00:44.840 --> 00:00:48.280 Yes? I think we want to be on track to 16 00:00:48.479 --> 00:00:52.600 become a multipad species and a space brank civilization in 17 00:00:52.679 --> 00:00:56.119 order to find out what the universe will all about, 18 00:00:56.280 --> 00:00:59.159 like what you know? Uh, and ensure the continuance of 19 00:00:59.280 --> 00:01:01.840 consciousness as we know it. Far as we know, we're 20 00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:03.679 the only life. I mean, people think there's aliens, but 21 00:01:03.679 --> 00:01:08.200 obviously I haven't seen any sign of aliens. So as 22 00:01:08.200 --> 00:01:11.040 far as we know, we're the only the only life. 23 00:01:11.640 --> 00:01:13.319 Whether we could be the only life, So let's put 24 00:01:13.319 --> 00:01:16.000 it that way, and we need to take the set 25 00:01:16.000 --> 00:01:17.840 of actions that are most likely to make the future 26 00:01:17.879 --> 00:01:21.079 good and result in the continuance of consciousness as we 27 00:01:21.159 --> 00:01:21.519 know it. 28 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:27.959 Okay, so okay, well, obviously your your means to that 29 00:01:28.120 --> 00:01:32.239 end is to open the space frontier with reusable launch vehicles, 30 00:01:32.280 --> 00:01:35.920 and you've gone through some partially useful ones and now 31 00:01:36.599 --> 00:01:37.319 it's starship. 32 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:41.599 Can you explain that basically the line of thinking that 33 00:01:41.760 --> 00:01:44.040 led you to the starship design? 34 00:01:45.640 --> 00:01:47.200 I forget. What I need to look at is look 35 00:01:47.280 --> 00:01:52.959 like I'm looking at the camera. So let's see. Well, 36 00:01:53.159 --> 00:01:59.000 on the starship front, we've gone through many iterations, starting 37 00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:01.000 from not really knowing how to build rockets at all 38 00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:07.400 with Falcon one and having four failures actually in reaching orbit. Yeah, 39 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:09.199 the sorry three failures, and then the fourth one got 40 00:02:09.240 --> 00:02:13.039 to orbit. So fourth one is a charm, so we 41 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:17.479 only barely survived. I was at zero cash basically when 42 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:20.400 we got that fourth one to orbit, and if that 43 00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:22.960 fourth one hadn't worked, we would have been curtains. So 44 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:26.199 it's definitely not been smooth sailing. It's been very difficult 45 00:02:27.319 --> 00:02:33.000 ride with just a lot that has been discovered along 46 00:02:33.039 --> 00:02:36.360 the way. I mean, just just trying to figure out 47 00:02:36.360 --> 00:02:40.240 what questions to ask about the design it was was 48 00:02:40.280 --> 00:02:44.960 quite difficult. I think it's helpful to have as the 49 00:02:44.960 --> 00:02:50.240 objective the creation of a self sustaining city on Mars. 50 00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:52.919 I think this is this has to be the objective, 51 00:02:53.000 --> 00:02:57.520 not simply a few people or a base, but a 52 00:02:57.560 --> 00:03:03.520 self sustaining city. The acid test really is if the 53 00:03:03.879 --> 00:03:06.520 if the ships from Earth stopped coming for any reason, 54 00:03:07.520 --> 00:03:11.039 does Mars die out for any reason? It could be 55 00:03:11.759 --> 00:03:16.879 from a banal, or it could be nuclear. Again, it 56 00:03:16.919 --> 00:03:19.439 doesn't matter if the if the ship stopped coming for 57 00:03:19.479 --> 00:03:22.280 any reason, does the city on Mars die out? If 58 00:03:22.319 --> 00:03:25.680 it does, we have not We're not in a secure place. 59 00:03:28.000 --> 00:03:31.800 So I mean, I think this really might come down to, 60 00:03:32.479 --> 00:03:36.120 you know, the great filter front is this, are we 61 00:03:36.199 --> 00:03:40.000 going to create a self sustaining city on Mars before 62 00:03:40.120 --> 00:03:42.919 or after World War three? And I think the probably 63 00:03:43.039 --> 00:03:46.000 of it being created after World War three hopefully hopefully 64 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:51.000 this's never world War three, but after is low. So 65 00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:53.439 we should try to create to make the city self 66 00:03:53.439 --> 00:03:57.680 sustaining before any possible World War three. This is just 67 00:03:57.719 --> 00:04:00.080 a risk. This is not you know, I mean not 68 00:04:00.120 --> 00:04:02.680 as people have difficulty to dealing with with probability to 69 00:04:02.719 --> 00:04:05.120 see that this way or that way. But it's really 70 00:04:05.159 --> 00:04:10.439 we just face a series of probabilities and there's some 71 00:04:10.560 --> 00:04:12.719 chance that we will have a giant ore or a 72 00:04:12.800 --> 00:04:17.079 super volcano, or you know, a commet might have the Earth, 73 00:04:17.199 --> 00:04:21.560 or we might just self extinguish in some Uh, it 74 00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:23.120 might be more of a more more of a whimper 75 00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:27.480 than a bang. And frankly, right now, civilization is not 76 00:04:27.519 --> 00:04:31.079 looking super strong, you know, it is looking a little 77 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:35.759 rettal rickety right now. Frank would you. 78 00:04:35.720 --> 00:04:40.040 Say that it's it's more than a life boat that 79 00:04:40.680 --> 00:04:48.120 would actually make you civilization more clearly more able to 80 00:04:48.680 --> 00:04:53.000 divert asteroids from hitting the earth and uh otherwise. 81 00:04:52.839 --> 00:04:58.439 Help, Yeah, it's not it's not an escape, it's a 82 00:04:59.199 --> 00:05:04.519 it's simply something that it's like you can, I mean 83 00:05:04.680 --> 00:05:08.480 less modes mars is made self sustaining, which will probably 84 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:12.199 not happen in my lifetime. It is certainly not its meaning, 85 00:05:12.240 --> 00:05:17.519 it's meaningless to have an escape, you know, a life 86 00:05:17.560 --> 00:05:21.600 boat or or or escape patch or something if you will. 87 00:05:21.680 --> 00:05:23.800 You're simply moving to another place where you will soon 88 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:26.920 die out. That doesn't count so much of a life 89 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:34.040 boat really, So this is really about minimizing existential risk 90 00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:39.240 for civilization as a whole and then having an exciting 91 00:05:39.240 --> 00:05:40.920 future that you can look forward to, and a future 92 00:05:40.959 --> 00:05:46.399 where we are a space ban civilization and multi plant 93 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:49.720 species is far more exciting than one where we are not. 94 00:05:52.720 --> 00:05:56.480 I mean, that's an exciting future. And being forever confined 95 00:05:56.519 --> 00:06:00.759 to Earth until some eventual extinction event is depressing and 96 00:06:00.879 --> 00:06:04.839 knock one. And we need things that make you want 97 00:06:04.879 --> 00:06:06.199 to get out of bed in the morning and be 98 00:06:06.240 --> 00:06:08.519 excited about the future. And I think being a space 99 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:11.319 faring civilization it's one of those things that everyone can 100 00:06:11.360 --> 00:06:13.759 get excited about. 101 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:18.360 But can you maybe just kind of lead people along 102 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:21.319 the path that led you from the design but from 103 00:06:21.360 --> 00:06:24.920 Falcon nine to Falcon Heavy, but now Starship is rather 104 00:06:25.079 --> 00:06:29.120 different than Falcon Heavy. The engineering. 105 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:35.120 Absolutely didn't quite answer your original question. You first have 106 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:38.439 to say what is the goal? And once you have 107 00:06:38.519 --> 00:06:41.079 what is the goal, you can then measure various designs 108 00:06:41.120 --> 00:06:46.000 against that goal. Otherwise you're saying, how are you evaluating? 109 00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:48.079 Why is one design better than another? What's your goal? 110 00:06:48.279 --> 00:06:50.879 It's got to be a goal. So the goal is 111 00:06:51.439 --> 00:06:54.399 get enough ton in to Mars to and enough people 112 00:06:54.920 --> 00:06:58.839 to make Mars self sustaining as quickly as possible. So 113 00:06:58.879 --> 00:07:00.800 then you say, okay, let's back back out the math 114 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:03.800 on this. We're gonna need We're gonna lot of need, 115 00:07:03.839 --> 00:07:08.480 a lot of tonnage. Maybe I don't know, one hundred 116 00:07:08.480 --> 00:07:12.079 thousand tons, maybe a million tons. So you can't be 117 00:07:12.079 --> 00:07:14.639 fat and around with these expandable rockets. They're a joke. 118 00:07:15.639 --> 00:07:21.600 They're absode even Saturn, five tiny potatoes. We need it 119 00:07:21.759 --> 00:07:23.680 because if you want to get like, let's say, first 120 00:07:23.759 --> 00:07:28.560 order approximation a million tons the sofas of Mars, inclusive 121 00:07:28.600 --> 00:07:33.199 of people. Uh, you know that that means probably something 122 00:07:33.240 --> 00:07:38.439 around four or five million useful tons of payload in 123 00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:42.600 the into low with orbit. You know, for every time 124 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:45.000 you get to low with orbit, you're gonna get four 125 00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:48.920 or five tons, hopefully closer to five. It's it's you 126 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:51.839 know these are this math is you really start squeezing 127 00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:56.399 like tiny percentages. But let's say it comfort confidently. If 128 00:07:56.399 --> 00:07:59.199 you've got five tons to low with orbit, you can 129 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:03.240 get one ton tomorrow. That's that's confident. Maybe you can 130 00:08:03.240 --> 00:08:05.839 get maybe maybe I only need four. Anyway, The point 131 00:08:05.879 --> 00:08:08.519 is you need five million tons into Earth orbit to 132 00:08:08.519 --> 00:08:12.680 get one million tons to Mars. Now, let's put this 133 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:18.439 into perspective. Total global capacity to orbit of all expendable 134 00:08:18.519 --> 00:08:23.600 rockets is around around five or six hundred tons, I think. 135 00:08:24.439 --> 00:08:26.639 And if you said, okay, the world's going to end 136 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:29.600 if you do not increase your capacity, perhaps they could 137 00:08:29.600 --> 00:08:38.120 do a thousand tons. Okay, So that's one five five thousand, 138 00:08:39.159 --> 00:08:46.759 one five thousandth of what's needed. It's ridiculous, you know, 139 00:08:49.840 --> 00:08:52.639 it's it's not even you know, zero point one percent 140 00:08:54.000 --> 00:08:58.600 would be you know, one thousandth so way less than 141 00:08:58.639 --> 00:09:00.919 point one percent. We have way less point one percent 142 00:09:01.080 --> 00:09:04.840 of the capability needed to create a if everyone went 143 00:09:04.879 --> 00:09:08.759 full filled with expendable rockets. Expanded rockets are the absolute 144 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:13.759 are just utterly stupid, in my opinion, utterly stupid. They 145 00:09:13.759 --> 00:09:16.120 are a complete waste of time. People should stop wasting 146 00:09:16.200 --> 00:09:18.759 the time. If you try to sell an expendable plane, 147 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:20.399 people would laugh the out of the room. If you 148 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:22.320 trying to sell an expendable car, they would laugh the 149 00:09:22.320 --> 00:09:26.000 old room. Try to sell an expendable horse, they would 150 00:09:26.039 --> 00:09:27.799 laugh the out of the room and think there's something 151 00:09:27.840 --> 00:09:33.559 wrong with you mentally. So all of these things are reusable. 152 00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:38.759 It's essential to be reasonable. Now, creating a reusable rocket, 153 00:09:38.799 --> 00:09:41.879 obital rocket is very difficult. Doing a suborbital reusable rocket 154 00:09:41.919 --> 00:09:44.759 is easy. Doing it a reasonable oval rocket is hard. 155 00:09:45.720 --> 00:09:48.480 Even when a lot of smart people have put quite 156 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:50.440 a bit of effort into it. They might get two 157 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:52.919 or three percent of the litron mass to lower vobit 158 00:09:55.200 --> 00:09:58.840 and a really epic rocket would get four. I'm not 159 00:09:58.840 --> 00:10:03.080 sure every I do think anyone's e and four. So, 160 00:10:03.320 --> 00:10:06.679 but you basically need to have something that inexpendable form 161 00:10:06.759 --> 00:10:09.559 would probably get about four percent of its paler to orbit, 162 00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:12.759 such that you can spend about half of that four 163 00:10:12.799 --> 00:10:17.759 percent on reusability and still net out to around two 164 00:10:17.840 --> 00:10:23.480 percent of Palo tourbit. So you have to make both 165 00:10:23.480 --> 00:10:25.639 the booster and the upper stage and the fairying and 166 00:10:25.639 --> 00:10:29.159 everything reusable with Falcon So with Falcon one, we did 167 00:10:29.240 --> 00:10:31.559 actually attempt to do this, So we had a parachute 168 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:35.080 in the first stage, but really did not appreciate that 169 00:10:35.080 --> 00:10:36.960 that first stage was going to hit the atmosphere like 170 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:40.039 a concrete wall. So at first I got pretty mad 171 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:42.399 at the parachutes flare until I realized, yeah, it's not 172 00:10:42.519 --> 00:10:46.039 their fault. We were just being cools that that thing 173 00:10:46.120 --> 00:10:51.320 was exploding as soon as it hit the atmosphere, and 174 00:10:52.039 --> 00:10:54.039 you know, so you really got to do something to 175 00:10:57.320 --> 00:11:01.840 ease the transition into the atmosphere. At Heimock number, it's 176 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:03.559 very hot and it's a lot of force and a 177 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:08.120 lot of heat. So then with falcon Hine we made 178 00:11:08.120 --> 00:11:12.960 a bigger rocket. And as scale matters here because you 179 00:11:13.000 --> 00:11:15.399 do get basically economies of scale. You can't have a 180 00:11:15.399 --> 00:11:18.200 tiny rocket. There's a tiny rocket, you basically just end 181 00:11:18.279 --> 00:11:21.720 up carrying your electronics to orbit, so your avionics, you know, 182 00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:27.320 so in a little rocket, if you're small enough that 183 00:11:27.960 --> 00:11:31.720 just your your avionics a loane ends up being a 184 00:11:31.720 --> 00:11:36.000 significant percentage of your payload. And then you you know, 185 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:38.799 if you've had a rocket that was I don't know, 186 00:11:39.759 --> 00:11:42.000 they're trying to get a ten thousand pound rocket, for example, 187 00:11:42.200 --> 00:11:44.759 or even a ten thousand kilogram rocket to all, but 188 00:11:44.879 --> 00:11:48.080 I think you would basically get zero payload. Now as 189 00:11:48.120 --> 00:11:51.440 you get bigger, the rocket gets bigger, but the brain 190 00:11:51.480 --> 00:11:54.159 doesn't get bigger. The brain can say the same size, 191 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:59.799 So your avionics, for example, become almost not almost zero 192 00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:03.759 end of the weight at for a big rocket. Then 193 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:08.080 for big rockets you also get gauge advantages. So this 194 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:11.440 is we're really in the nuances of rocket design and manufacturing. Here, 195 00:12:11.759 --> 00:12:13.879 if your things are very small, it's difficult to get 196 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:17.320 your gauge accurate. So the basically how thick is the 197 00:12:17.360 --> 00:12:20.720 material like you want to do castings, for example, there's 198 00:12:20.960 --> 00:12:25.960 a minimum gauge with thickness for a casting, there's a 199 00:12:26.000 --> 00:12:29.960 minimum kind of error bar on the you know, on 200 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:33.919 this the material skins. Even for a composite rocket, you've 201 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:38.159 got uh, you know, you start getting granularity issues as 202 00:12:38.159 --> 00:12:41.559 you get bigger. You know you're no longer gauge limited, 203 00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:45.600 and you can get your your percentage accuracy on the 204 00:12:45.639 --> 00:12:50.600 thickness of walls and castings can be can be very good. 205 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:54.879 These are the nuances that I think was no one appreciates, 206 00:12:54.919 --> 00:12:58.279 but I spice to say that there are advantages to size, 207 00:13:00.200 --> 00:13:02.039 and you can certainly see this many walks of life 208 00:13:02.120 --> 00:13:06.080 where if you've got a truck that's carrying cargo, it's 209 00:13:06.080 --> 00:13:07.960 more efficient to have a big semi truck, not a 210 00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:12.360 bunch of little trucks. For ships, it would be pretty 211 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:15.320 silly to see container ships or containers going across the 212 00:13:15.320 --> 00:13:17.799 ocean one at a time with little outboard motors. That 213 00:13:17.840 --> 00:13:19.919 would be silly. You put them on a container ship, 214 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:24.440 you have big ships, not little little tiny ships. So anyway, 215 00:13:24.480 --> 00:13:30.440 so size matters, it really does, and for reusability matters. 216 00:13:30.759 --> 00:13:34.759 So with Falcon nine, after a mess effort, we were 217 00:13:34.799 --> 00:13:42.279 able to achieve reusability of the booster, and we're mostly 218 00:13:42.279 --> 00:13:45.240 achieving reusability at this point with the faring as well. 219 00:13:46.360 --> 00:13:52.039 But this is a this is a monumental effort, and 220 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:56.639 I think within its architecture, Falcon nine is close to 221 00:13:56.679 --> 00:14:03.399 a local maximum if you a you know, gas gener 222 00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:11.960 cycle kerosene oxygen vehicle of this particular size with a 223 00:14:15.039 --> 00:14:18.240 twelve phot or three point six meters diameter, which is 224 00:14:18.360 --> 00:14:22.399 which is that size for because of road transport limitation, 225 00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:24.399 so you go bigger than that, you can transport it 226 00:14:24.440 --> 00:14:29.279 over the road and your logistics class become extreme. So 227 00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:33.440 but having a long, thin rocket is not very mass efficient. 228 00:14:35.080 --> 00:14:38.200 You end up having to have thicker skins to take 229 00:14:38.240 --> 00:14:44.039 out the vending moment. So we're and then and having 230 00:14:44.759 --> 00:14:47.799 like kerosene is not the right fuel. Methane is a 231 00:14:47.879 --> 00:14:51.679 much better fuel. You can get higher i SP specific 232 00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:54.519 impulse basically efficiency. I mean, But for those who I 233 00:14:54.519 --> 00:14:56.000 think probably a lot of those who are listening to 234 00:14:56.159 --> 00:14:58.519 what the rock equation is, but in simple terms, it's 235 00:14:58.519 --> 00:15:01.120 actually straight simple. It's like a rocket is going to 236 00:15:01.159 --> 00:15:04.879 go further if the gas, if it shoots the gas 237 00:15:04.879 --> 00:15:08.879 out of the end faster and if a bigger percentage 238 00:15:08.919 --> 00:15:13.679 of its mass is propellant. Was obvious. So that's what 239 00:15:13.720 --> 00:15:18.039 that's what the rocket equation says. So I shoot shoot 240 00:15:18.039 --> 00:15:22.279 gas out faster in the right direction and increase the 241 00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:26.720 propellant the percentage of propellant that that's going to get 242 00:15:26.720 --> 00:15:30.440 you allow you to go further. With methane, you can 243 00:15:30.480 --> 00:15:34.279 shoot it out faster, and you can make it on Mars. 244 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:39.159 You can make it on Mars for sure, exactly. So 245 00:15:41.879 --> 00:15:45.519 being able to do institute propellant development is production is 246 00:15:45.559 --> 00:15:49.080 very important. So you don't have to carry your return fuel. 247 00:15:49.120 --> 00:15:54.360 With your return fuel and oxygen, it's like rockets are 248 00:15:54.399 --> 00:16:00.600 mostly oxygen or oxidizer. So and there's there's some other 249 00:16:00.600 --> 00:16:05.360 subtle advantages with a oxygen methane system in that you 250 00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:08.360 can go to a higher percentage a higher mass ratio 251 00:16:08.399 --> 00:16:11.879 of oxygen. So with kerosene you'd be about quote roughly 252 00:16:11.879 --> 00:16:15.919 two and a half to one oxygen to fuel mass ratio. 253 00:16:16.000 --> 00:16:19.240 With methane you're more like three and a half to one, 254 00:16:19.879 --> 00:16:22.639 and you actually want that higher mass ratio because oxygen 255 00:16:22.679 --> 00:16:26.639 is very dance and it's inexpensive, especially on Earth, so 256 00:16:26.679 --> 00:16:28.840 you're gonna you know, you have all these plants just 257 00:16:28.919 --> 00:16:31.679 making oxygen all day long and plank them, just make 258 00:16:31.720 --> 00:16:36.320 an oxygen, don't do anything. So the cost of oxygen 259 00:16:36.399 --> 00:16:42.000 is basically the cost of electricity anyway. So going from falcon, 260 00:16:43.080 --> 00:16:47.759 going from you know, kerosene, which is basically the same 261 00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:51.559 as jet fuel. It's like RP one rock propelland grade. 262 00:16:51.600 --> 00:16:56.679 Kerosine is just a tighter grade of jet fuel. You 263 00:16:56.679 --> 00:16:58.679 want to go from that to something which has where 264 00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:03.120 the gas roots out faster, that's methane and where instatu 265 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:07.119 production of propellant is easier. So that's that's why the 266 00:17:07.240 --> 00:17:10.640 change from from kerosene to methane. Methinks just c H four. 267 00:17:10.839 --> 00:17:15.200 It's one carbon pore hydrogens and then the oxygen pairs 268 00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:18.160 pairs together. So here it's it's called O two because 269 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:22.680 auction para bonds and I was you know all this stuff. 270 00:17:22.720 --> 00:17:25.039 I'm just basically help that kind. 271 00:17:24.960 --> 00:17:30.119 Of the audience together large size twice to take off 272 00:17:30.160 --> 00:17:33.519 thrust of a saturn five, but about the same payload, 273 00:17:33.559 --> 00:17:37.240 but that gives you reusability much cheaper in situ propellant. 274 00:17:37.599 --> 00:17:42.319 It all is coherent. Uh and uh so let me 275 00:17:42.519 --> 00:17:44.880 ask you the thing that I think everybody wants to know, 276 00:17:46.079 --> 00:17:49.880 which is when when are we going to see Starship? 277 00:17:49.920 --> 00:17:52.519 Do a high fly to the stratosphere? When to orbit? 278 00:17:53.000 --> 00:17:57.240 When first payload to Mars? When the first units to Mars? 279 00:17:58.799 --> 00:18:02.240 All right, well, it's all like we're obviously venturing into 280 00:18:02.279 --> 00:18:05.160 unknown territory. So it's not as though I have all 281 00:18:05.160 --> 00:18:08.400 these secret dates and I and I am, you know, 282 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:12.640 just keeping them from people, but so that these are 283 00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:19.039 just guesses. Obviously, I'm pretty I am eighty to nine 284 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:21.799 percent confident that we will reach orbit with Starship next year. 285 00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:24.119 Uh. 286 00:18:25.480 --> 00:18:28.720 I think probably fifty or sixty fifty percent confident that 287 00:18:28.720 --> 00:18:30.680 we'll be able to bring the ship and booster back. 288 00:18:31.200 --> 00:18:37.119 That's that's more of a dicey situation. We'll probably lose 289 00:18:37.160 --> 00:18:41.400 a few ships before we really get the atmospheric return 290 00:18:41.480 --> 00:18:44.960 and landing right. We might lose hopefully, don't you lose it. 291 00:18:45.759 --> 00:18:47.640 Hopefully we don't lose any boosters because that's a lot 292 00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:52.119 of engines. Initial booster flights will just have maybe two 293 00:18:52.119 --> 00:18:56.200 to four engines, not twenty eight, twenty eight a lot 294 00:18:56.240 --> 00:19:01.480 of engines. So yeah, and then I think we'll probably 295 00:19:01.480 --> 00:19:07.039 be in do it doing high volume plates. I think 296 00:19:07.039 --> 00:19:13.000 probably in twenty twenty two, a couple of years from now. Well, 297 00:19:13.160 --> 00:19:16.920 I'm trying to make sure that our rate of innovation increases, 298 00:19:17.680 --> 00:19:23.359 it doesn't decrease. This is really essential. In fact, if 299 00:19:23.359 --> 00:19:27.359 we do not see something close to an expontential improvement 300 00:19:27.559 --> 00:19:31.680 in our rate of innovation, we will not reach Mars. 301 00:19:31.720 --> 00:19:34.960 Like a pure linear doesn't get there. Not not, well, 302 00:19:36.440 --> 00:19:38.799 I'll be down anyway before it gets there. It's pure linear, 303 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:43.559 it's exponential. I think we could get to Mars. We 304 00:19:43.920 --> 00:19:50.680 could probably send an uncrewed mission there in maybe four years. 305 00:19:52.640 --> 00:19:55.759 You know, there's a mass contraction every twenty six months. 306 00:19:56.000 --> 00:19:57.680 There's one this year, so that means in a couple 307 00:19:57.680 --> 00:19:59.960 of years Nail is another one, and then four years 308 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:03.240 is another one. I think we've got a fighting chance 309 00:20:03.680 --> 00:20:09.000 of making the that second Mars transfer window. 310 00:20:10.279 --> 00:20:19.079 So one thing that is really amazing about SpaceX to 311 00:20:19.240 --> 00:20:22.119 those of us who have experienced in the aerospace industry 312 00:20:23.119 --> 00:20:27.759 is the rate of innovation. Uh you know, Okay, last 313 00:20:27.759 --> 00:20:30.680 time you spoke to the Mars Society Convention was twenty twelve. 314 00:20:30.680 --> 00:20:34.200 Since then, you've made the Falcon i'm usable, introduced Falcon 315 00:20:34.279 --> 00:20:40.000 Heavy Crew Dragon a satellite constellation, and you're in the 316 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:46.200 middle of developing Starship. So what what is your you know, 317 00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:48.640 what would you say is your methodology that allows you 318 00:20:48.720 --> 00:20:50.440 to innovate so swiftly? 319 00:20:55.359 --> 00:21:00.279 I don't really know. We're focused on like scept iportant 320 00:21:00.279 --> 00:21:03.960 to have that have the objective you right, That's why 321 00:21:03.920 --> 00:21:07.839 I was talking so much about the importance of making 322 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:11.720 wealth Mars, a self sustaining, pulling, self sustaining city on Mars. 323 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:16.759 If that's the objective, then obviously, you know, just putting 324 00:21:16.759 --> 00:21:20.720 some satelli smoll good or it's not that that's not important. 325 00:21:21.039 --> 00:21:24.079 You have to achieve full and rapid reusability. Emphasize quill 326 00:21:24.240 --> 00:21:27.359 and rapid reusability is only relevant to the degree is 327 00:21:27.440 --> 00:21:29.440 rapid and complete. 328 00:21:30.960 --> 00:21:31.720 And uh. 329 00:21:31.880 --> 00:21:34.440 And then you also have to do obital refilling. This 330 00:21:34.559 --> 00:21:40.920 is essential as well. And uh and then propellant production 331 00:21:41.039 --> 00:21:46.960 on Mars also essential. So uh, you know, and with 332 00:21:47.319 --> 00:21:51.799 that as the goal, then you know that that that 333 00:21:51.960 --> 00:21:53.960 means that that that that creates I think a good 334 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:57.359 forcing function for radical innovation, because in the absence of 335 00:21:57.440 --> 00:21:59.400 radical innovation, we have no chance of meeting that goal. 336 00:22:01.319 --> 00:22:07.039 Whereas if I go simply you know, defeat Lucked and 337 00:22:07.079 --> 00:22:10.400 Boeing or something like that, that that we were probably 338 00:22:11.119 --> 00:22:16.920 achieved it that really wasn't even a thing, you know, 339 00:22:17.480 --> 00:22:21.880 I wish it was. We got like they're they're not 340 00:22:21.920 --> 00:22:24.039 really trying to do not even trying to do reusability, 341 00:22:24.039 --> 00:22:26.519 which is bizarre because they make planes that are re usable. 342 00:22:28.279 --> 00:22:30.640 So I mean, if they if they talked to the 343 00:22:31.160 --> 00:22:33.079 you know, if they talked to one of their customers 344 00:22:33.279 --> 00:22:37.000 buyas or a Lucky Fighter Dead or a Boeing aircraft, like, hey, 345 00:22:37.039 --> 00:22:39.319 we're going to sell you a seven thirty seven confused 346 00:22:39.319 --> 00:22:45.680 once and it's not seven thirty seven megs, but that 347 00:22:45.680 --> 00:22:47.079 that turns out that was a single use of a 348 00:22:47.119 --> 00:22:52.720 planet times but you really, uh, it would be an 349 00:22:52.720 --> 00:22:57.599 episode thing for them to sell a single use aircraft, 350 00:22:57.640 --> 00:22:59.680 but they feel quite comfortable with selling a single use 351 00:22:59.759 --> 00:23:03.640 rocket and anyway, But if I always simply we're going 352 00:23:03.720 --> 00:23:07.759 to have be the leaders in launching the conventional satellites 353 00:23:07.799 --> 00:23:12.000 that exist, we would probably approach that in on a 354 00:23:12.200 --> 00:23:16.960 sort of a logarithmic basis where you know you'd get there, 355 00:23:17.000 --> 00:23:20.920 and you sort of slowly make progress towards doing ten 356 00:23:21.000 --> 00:23:23.200 launches a year, twelve open launches a year, and while 357 00:23:23.200 --> 00:23:27.279 they do six or something like that. But since the 358 00:23:27.319 --> 00:23:30.039 goal is, hey, we need to make life multiplanter before 359 00:23:30.039 --> 00:23:36.960 it's too late and time really matters, so we're says us, 360 00:23:37.039 --> 00:23:38.960 it's like we're shooting for Mars, not just the moon. 361 00:23:39.160 --> 00:23:41.000 It's not much shoot for the moon, shoot from Mars 362 00:23:42.119 --> 00:23:44.519 and then and then the you know, these these competitive 363 00:23:44.559 --> 00:23:47.279 things are are kind of small things along the way. 364 00:23:47.359 --> 00:23:49.799 Unless somebody else is shooting from Mars, they will not 365 00:23:49.839 --> 00:23:54.680 be competitive with something as pedestrian as launching a few 366 00:23:54.720 --> 00:23:57.960 satellites into Earth. Over So, how how. 367 00:23:57.799 --> 00:24:00.079 Can the Mars Society help you? 368 00:24:01.200 --> 00:24:06.440 Well, I do think this. In order to for there 369 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:10.839 to be a self sustained city on Mars, this we're 370 00:24:10.839 --> 00:24:14.279 going to need an intersection of sets here. One set 371 00:24:14.519 --> 00:24:17.440 is the set of people that want to go and 372 00:24:17.559 --> 00:24:21.480 can either find sponsorship. They can either afford it themselves 373 00:24:21.599 --> 00:24:25.440 or find government sponsorship or take out a loan, wherever 374 00:24:25.440 --> 00:24:30.319 the case may be. But somehow you've got to have 375 00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:32.319 the set of people who want to go to Mars 376 00:24:32.400 --> 00:24:34.880 and can and can come up with the funds somehow 377 00:24:35.359 --> 00:24:39.400 to do that, and then then you know it's I 378 00:24:39.400 --> 00:24:41.519 should say it's there's two sets desire to go to 379 00:24:41.559 --> 00:24:43.920 Mars and can afford to go to Mars. When when 380 00:24:43.960 --> 00:24:45.519 desire to go to the people who want to go 381 00:24:45.519 --> 00:24:49.039 to Mars and the people who can afford to go 382 00:24:49.079 --> 00:24:52.519 to Mars. When that intersection of sets reaches a million roughly, 383 00:24:53.119 --> 00:24:56.319 then I think we will have this city on Mars. 384 00:24:57.119 --> 00:25:01.960 So we need both the motivation and the you know, 385 00:25:02.079 --> 00:25:04.440 we need both the means and the way. I mean 386 00:25:04.440 --> 00:25:13.359 we need It's like we need people to. 387 00:25:13.319 --> 00:25:14.480 Want the will in the way. 388 00:25:14.680 --> 00:25:17.319 The will in the way, yes, exactly the way well 389 00:25:17.359 --> 00:25:18.599 as will as a way, but in this case we 390 00:25:18.759 --> 00:25:22.440 will end away. So when the will in the way intersect, 391 00:25:22.720 --> 00:25:26.079 then we will have it be of all the planet species. 392 00:25:27.400 --> 00:25:29.960 The will in the way must intersect. So I think 393 00:25:30.000 --> 00:25:31.559 the Martrostic can really help with the will. 394 00:25:32.279 --> 00:25:34.720 Okay, you provide the way, we'll provide the will. 395 00:25:34.880 --> 00:25:36.960 Yes exactly. Okay. 396 00:25:37.519 --> 00:25:40.799 Now, your assistant Jen told me earlier that you have 397 00:25:40.960 --> 00:25:44.039 a hard cutoff at the half hour. Is that true 398 00:25:44.119 --> 00:25:46.440 or do you want to stay and take some questions 399 00:25:46.440 --> 00:25:47.880 from the audience. 400 00:25:48.559 --> 00:25:51.480 Yeah, we could do maybe five ten minutes of questions. 401 00:25:51.960 --> 00:25:58.319