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Speaker 1: Starting the game. Starting the broadcast, guys.

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Speaker 2: All right, guys, welcome in. It is time for Total

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Basis Playoff Edition. The Major League Baseball Playoffs start today.

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Missed you guys yesterday. Didn't really know what to do

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with myself at nine am without a show. But we're

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back for the rest of the week. So we've got

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playoff games the next three days, and then on Friday

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for Friday show, we'll talk about Saturday's games because by

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Thursday night we'll know all of the matchups for Saturday's games.

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So we're with you the rest of the week. Before

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we get in. We got four games. We're gonna cover

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all four of them before we get into the four

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games as we sort of let people file in. I

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just want to talk about the playoffs in general because

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I used to I used to be the guy that

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was like, well, you're never gonna make any money betting

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the Major League Baseball playoffs. It's there's not a ton

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of value and it's a lot tougher to do. However,

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I went back and looked all three of us made

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money in the playoffs last year, so we all had

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plus units. I believe the three of us combined for

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forty sixty six units. And I actually went back and

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looked at my results the last couple of years in

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the playoffs, and I actually so, I've made a couple

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of I've updated my take on this, and I want

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to see if you guys agree, disagree, or have anything

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to throw in there. I think the new format has

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so two things. One, I think the new format has

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created more betting opportunities for an obvious reason, there's more

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more teams, more games, and if you give us more

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days where there's four games, there's it's likely we're going

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to be able to find one winner. The other thing

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is baseball popularity has dipped so much during the regular season,

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but the playoffs are as popular as ever, and I

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think that that kind of speaks to the new format

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where suddenly you get this influx a very uninformed money

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that was not there all year. And so I almost

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think I'll go to you, Brian Leonard, it is the

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play I've almost think the playoffs are more betible than

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they've ever been, and I'm excited for the next month.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel that way. In the professional professional playoffs.

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One of the reasons I like it is you don't

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have to worry about motivation, because all teams are motivated

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once they get to the playoffs. We talked about this

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all year long with certain teams, you know, Detroit obviously,

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the Dodgers, the Padres, so we know what we're going

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to get. And the playoffs, if you've noticed, the lines

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are the totals are lower, and that's because every game

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is treated obviously like a playoff game, and so you're

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going to get your best relievers out there on a

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regular basis as opposed to your garbage guys, and you're

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using your top three starters. So I love the playoffs.

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I love the hockey playoffs, NBA playoffs. It's the easiest

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time to win in the NBA is in the NBA

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playoffs because you know who's coming up and how good

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the teams are, and you know that's that's why they

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made us so much harder to win first quarter, in

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first half in the NBA playoffs. So I got to

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do is take the team and who lost the first game

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and that come back and just continue to roll that over.

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So yeah, I'm excited about the playoffs. And as you mentioned,

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Ralph Michaels was nice enough to send that to us

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in the back end today and I had just place

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down here in Florida, and I see how the back

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end gets to work a little bit while I'm down here.

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Speaker 3: Five dollars Tuesday. Today, guys, I have a five dollars

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play up. And also we mentioned this on the last show,

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but since football started wayger Talk is allowing us to

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sell our MLB plays for nine dollars anything except for

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a five percent play. So stay tuned. We're all going

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to have probably a free play up today, and we

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all should have a play up for five dollars, whether

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it's baseball or another sport. My baseball MLB five dollars

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play has been up since yesterday, so go grab it

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and grab these guys plays as well. Regarding the playoffs, yes,

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one thing that's good about the playoffs is, like Webbs

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was mentioned, the teams are not really resting people. There's

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no tomorrow now. During the regular season, you have months

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and months ahead, you worry about guys' schedule schedules, you

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worry about guys fatiguing. But in the playoffs it's it's

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it's balls to the wall. There's no fatigue, there's no nothing.

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The pitchers do tend to come out earlier in the

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playoff games because coaches managers want to perhaps use them

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two times in a series, so they're they're generally not

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going to stress their starters out through seven innings in

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a playoff game. So that's one thing to keep in

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mind if you're betting strikeouts or outs props. Most outs

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props I lost two years ago. I learned the hard way.

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A lot of my outs props lost because pitchers were

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coming out before the fifth inning, and it was because

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managers wanted to use them in Game four. Now, in

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the wild Card we only have three games, so that's

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really not relevant. But when it goes to five to

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seven game series, things like that, a manager might want

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to use his picture three times in the seven game series,

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so he will maybe take a picture out early. So

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something to keep in mind.

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Speaker 2: I disagree with that somewhat, but I do think you're

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right about guys coming out early. I think managers just

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don't want want the other team seeing a guy for

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a third time through. And of course you have the

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famous example of Kevin Cash taking Blake Stell out and

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he's just like, what, like, excuse me. But I do

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think that there's you're gonna and this is where it.

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We'll talk about this a lot over the next week

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and two. You really have to handicap the manager in

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the playoffs more than you than you ever do the

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rest of the season, very much. I think getting inside

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the manager's head and knowing how they might manage something.

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We'll tell you kind of what you you know, you

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if you want to be on that team if if not,

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But you're right TV some of them and listen, some

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of them do it to their detriment all of a sudden.

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It's like I gotta I gotta outthink the room because

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it's the playoffs and sometimes that's just not necessary. That's

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the type of stuff we're going to talk this show. Yeah,

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I mean, yeah, you'll.

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Speaker 3: Have really decisions in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: David, You'll have your chance on this show to talk

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about him. Uh. Listen, guys in the comments, keep the

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comments coming. We're gonna go right down the row. So

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the the OCD folks in the crowd are going to

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be through because we're going right in order morning tonight,

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starting with Tiger's Guardians, going right to the night. So

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all the for the for the guys in the chat

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that every day are like wish you didn't bounce around

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so much. Guess what, We're not doing it in the

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playoffs right in order, so don't worry about that. But

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I still want to hear what you guys have to say,

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so keep firing off in the comments. And I think

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wager Talk management might have messed up with the nine

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dollars thing, because, as I said, the baseball playoffs are

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the most popular game games of the year. But hey,

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I guess we're selling them for nine bucks, so that

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benefits everyone. So we'll keep that going. And today five dollars,

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because of course it's five dollars Tuesday. All right, We've

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got enough people in here. Now let's get right into it.

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We are starting the day. Can't believe I'm staying this,

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Brian Leonard. We are starting the day in Cleveland, Ohio,

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because the Guardians are not only in the playoffs, but

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they're hosting a playoff game, something that I just didn't

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think was even remotely possible this season, even at the

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beginning of the season when they weren't fifteen games behind

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the leader in the division. So Tiger's Guardians, they absolutely owned.

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The Guardians actually owned the Tigers in September, but it's

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a clean slate. We talked about this the last couple

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of weeks. The Tigers get in, are they dangerous? And

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do you like them here?

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Speaker 1: I did want to point out that it's a little

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bit different this year because the home team is going

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to get all three games because they got to get

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these three games in in three days, so there's not

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going to be any traveling, So that Cleveland being able

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to outlast Detroit and get that home advantage is really

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even more important than what we what, at least I

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thought at the time. And also, as I mentioned, these

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are lower scoring games, so every run counts. And you

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mentioned Cleveland being the first game on the board, Well,

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Cleveland and Detroit, whoever wins this series is going to

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be the first game on the board just about every

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time because we've got games being played in Chicago, New York,

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and Los Angeles, the three big media centers, so all

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the people want to be able to watch those games,

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all the local fans. So yeah, unfortunately the Detroit Cleveland

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series gets first crack every day, but hey, no, who

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cares as long as you get to play the games.

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Both these teams are very happy to be here. Schooball

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the left to going against Williams. But by the way,

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there's eight teams going today. Five of those teams are

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starting lefties, including the Bosston New York game, in which

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they've got two lefties going in that one school Ball

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the lefty against Williams. Already, this is starting to be

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a very familiar thing. Is these two seems to be

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going against each other a lot lately. We're looking at

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Detroit roughly about a one sixty favorite here, total of six,

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and that is the lowest total on the board. Let

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me check the real quick the park factors. Progressive Field,

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the wind is blowing in, it should be nothing different

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than normal Dodger Stadium blowing out slightly. There's going to

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be point, excuse me, three percent runs less than a

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normal game. The Yankees blowing left right there will be

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minus eight percent, and Wrigley Field blowing dead dead end

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from center field eleven percent less runs in Wrigley Field

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as you would normally get based on the wind direction

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for today. Scoobl on Williams. I took a look at

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this series. Scooble is, as I mentioned about a one

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sixty favorite here, Detroit is actually favored in the series

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in about the one twenty range, even though they're only

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going to be favored in one of the three games,

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and Cleveland has seen Schooble, they've performed well against School.

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School has pitched well against them, but Cleveland has fared well.

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If you take a look at I went back, the

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team total for Detroit in this game is three and

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a half, and in a game.

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Speaker 4: Where you only expect to score six runs, I think

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that's a pretty nice bet on the under in that.

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If I went back and looked at the last thirteen

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Cleveland games they've held Cleveland games at home, they've held

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the opposition to under three and a half runs in

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nine of those thirteen games, and all of them so

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far into September, they've been terrific. Right now, that Detroit

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team total is under three and a half at minus

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one twenty five. And also Cleveland has held Detroit under

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four of the six games in Cleveland in this month,

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also under the total, So they've done well. And you know,

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we usually talk about Cleveland against Detroit and especially the

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left handers. Cleveland's not really built to be good against

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left handers. But my roommate for this week, Rob Michaels,

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has pointed out that Cleveland is fifteen and five versus

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lefties since July seventh, and including a seven and oh run,

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so Cleveland against lefties is looking pretty good. Cleveland's at

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two and a half of one team total, Detroit three

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and a half on their team total, so I think

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you're either better off playing Detroit team total under or

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Cleveland over two and a half. I'm going to go

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with the Detroit team total under here under three and

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a half, and that's probably my one of my best

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bets on this show here, So we'll go with Detroit

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to team total under three and a half minus one

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twenty five.

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Speaker 3: I would totally agree with that reason being Cleveland has

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every advantage here except starting pitching. Cleveland's bats are are

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hotter than Detroit's bats right now. Cleveland's bullpen much better

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than Detroit's in my opinion, Sorry, my necklace is coming off,

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but starting pitching. Actually, Scooble is a top two pitcher

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in Major League Baseball. Everybody knows that. So taking a

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look at Gavin Williams, now, this is one of the

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pitching starters that surprised me. I thought they were going

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to start Tanner Biby, but then it came out Williams,

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and I'm like, why would they do that?

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Speaker 2: I dug a little deeper.

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Speaker 3: And I found out why they did it. Gavin Williams

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against the Detroit Tigers one hundred and twenty five at

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bats against one hundred one sixty eight average against in

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a five h two OPS. Amazing numbers and a huge

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sample size, So that's exactly the reason they did it.

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I would say game total under maybe first five, under

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three and a half because Scooble has pretty good numbers

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against these guys too. But I don't think you can

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take Detroit at this number because the only advantage they

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have in this game is Scooble. But given the stats

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that I just gave you right now, that kind of

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negates that advantage there. In my opinion, I think Cleveland

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is a live dog here, and coming towards the end

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of the season, they were much more on fire than Detroit.

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Detroit just kind of fizzled out and backed into the playoffs.

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So momentum is a tricky thing in the playoffs though,

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because they've had some time off, they're regrouping, so momentum

249
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doesn't really mean all that much. But man, the Tigers

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are the real Tigers, the first half Tigers or the

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second half Tigers. I tend to believe it's the second

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half Tigers, So Guardians would be the only way I

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would go here. A Detroit team total under perhaps or

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a Guardian's plus one and a half some like that

255
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would be how I would go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the reason that they want to match

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Gavin Williams up with Schooble is because Gavin Williams is

258
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the more likely guy if he's on where he can

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throw zeros up like, so that's where it's like, by

260
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the I think is capable of giving you a nice effort,

261
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a good start, But if you're looking at someone that

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essentially needs to Outdueltreek Schooble, and Gavin Williams has this

263
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good stuff his like his good stuff can can wipe

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out a lineup and can match Schooble, which I guess

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the thought process here is while he's you know, he's

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going to go out and shut down the Guardians. At

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least that's what the books are saying. The total in

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this game is six, so they don't think there's gonna

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be much offense. And the other thing with Gavin Williams,

270
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which I think makes it a little bit easier to

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use him as your game one starter is if he

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doesn't have it, you can bail on him quicker because

273
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like he has been somewhat of an like all or

274
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nothing type guy. When he's on, you know, he's given

275
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you six or seven good innings when he's off, and

276
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when he's off attends to be location related, putting guys

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on walking guys. I think the Guardians might be able

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to say, you know what, we got to go in

279
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a different direction. We're going to go to the bullpen.

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And then it's really like a inning by inning type

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thing where it's like, where are we at in the game.

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How many resources do we want to burn here? Because

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here's the thing. In a three game series, for the while,

284
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like three game series will they will burn through every

285
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reliever they need to burn through if it means they

286
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can get a win. However, if it's a different situation,

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let's say all of a sudden, Guardians are down for nothing,

288
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it's a totally different game plan, totally different approach because

289
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you now have to start to prepare to have your

290
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best guys in game two, in game three. That's why

291
00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,399
these three game series, or really any of these playoffs

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series are so intriguing because it can change on a

293
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,639
moment's notice. But I think that's why you see Gavin

294
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Williams here, because I think he gives them the best

295
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chance to match Scua Bowl and get to the bullpens,

296
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which actually the Guardians have quite the advantage if you

297
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,960
look at this series, like, not only has their bullpen

298
00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:13,879
been better, but in the head to head games against Detroit,

299
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the Guardian's bullpen has been significantly better so far this year,

300
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Guardians bullpen against the Tigers one point seventy five era,

301
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Tiger's bullpen against the Guardians four point one two. And

302
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,480
then you know, you talk about Tokyo Brandon, you talk

303
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:32,480
about what Tigers are we going to see? Well, yeah,

304
00:16:32,519 --> 00:16:35,159
like the last month, the Guardians are the best record

305
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,559
in baseball. The Tigers are the worst record in the

306
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:42,799
American League, right like, so you know, I my personal

307
00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:46,960
thought process is you let the Tigers in, not the Guardians.

308
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The Guardians didn't let him in, but the Astros did,

309
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and now they have new life. That scares me in

310
00:16:52,559 --> 00:16:54,919
terms of wanting to fade them. But I don't think

311
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you can discount the fact that this team has just

312
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not been the same team since the beginning of the year,

313
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and the thing that made the Tigers, if you go

314
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:07,079
back to last year's playoffs, they were very No one

315
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,400
gave the Tigers a chance really in last year's playoffs,

316
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at least many people did not. The reason that they

317
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,599
were able to win that series against the Astros, and

318
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,519
the reason they were able to get as far as

319
00:17:16,519 --> 00:17:19,400
they were able to get in the playoffs was aj

320
00:17:19,559 --> 00:17:22,960
Hinch's ability to mix and match the relievers and sort

321
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,240
of play this nine in in game where he had

322
00:17:25,279 --> 00:17:28,039
a plan for every inning and he really mixed and matched.

323
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:29,720
I don't know that he can do it with this

324
00:17:29,799 --> 00:17:33,160
year's roster. I just don't know that this relief unit

325
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,640
or this group of pitchers is as good as last year's.

326
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:39,599
And so that gives me a little bit of concern

327
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,880
for the Tigers. With a lot of what you guys

328
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,000
are saying in the chat, and I agree with sort

329
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,319
of both of you. I don't know if I can

330
00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:49,680
I certainly can't lay a dollar sixty here, but I

331
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,519
don't know if I have enough to go against the Tigers.

332
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So I'm likely out on this one. Brian, was that

333
00:17:55,319 --> 00:17:57,519
your part, I are we going to do the parlay

334
00:17:57,599 --> 00:17:59,559
for this show. I guess we are for a game

335
00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:01,119
you want.

336
00:18:01,799 --> 00:18:03,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we could do it if we're gonna if

337
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,319
we're gonna do the part, I put that down for me.

338
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,519
Detroit under the nine excuse me, three and a half

339
00:18:07,519 --> 00:18:09,000
team total minus one twenty five.

340
00:18:10,759 --> 00:18:13,079
Speaker 3: Who's Detroit gonna start in game two? I mean, we

341
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,640
can talk about it tomorrow, but are they gonna start

342
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,920
Montero or here's.

343
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,519
Speaker 2: The other thing too. I don't think I truly believe this,

344
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,920
and especially like someone like Hinch, I really don't think

345
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,720
these guys are looking at game two. Yeah, I think

346
00:18:29,839 --> 00:18:33,480
this game. I think in a three game series, this

347
00:18:33,559 --> 00:18:37,519
game is so important that I believe they might have

348
00:18:37,599 --> 00:18:39,680
their game two starter in their head and you might

349
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,160
not see them. But I think, based on how Game

350
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,079
one Ghost is what teams a lot of times do

351
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:46,680
with games.

352
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Speaker 3: Cleveland already listed Vibe as their Game two.

353
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Speaker 1: I'm sure he's gonna I'm assuming it's gonna be Casey.

354
00:18:53,319 --> 00:18:59,079
Speaker 3: Mice Game three. Though Cleveland's in trouble because Cony's gonna

355
00:18:59,079 --> 00:19:02,039
be their starter. It's not good news for them.

356
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 2: But anyway, I don't know that. I don't know if

357
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:04,759
he would be their.

358
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 3: Starter for it's already listed.

359
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, but this is what I'm saying, they can change.

360
00:19:10,039 --> 00:19:12,920
Just because the starter is listed by MLB dot Com

361
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,279
means absolutely nothing. These these things are going to change

362
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:21,480
based on They're just the subject to change. I truly

363
00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:24,359
believe no manager has Game three planned out yet. I

364
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,160
think the emphasis is winning Game one and then they'll

365
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:28,240
see how how it goes.

366
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,920
Speaker 3: The Tigers this season, though, if they lose a Scooball game,

367
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,640
they're in big trouble. That's that's that's what I think.

368
00:19:35,759 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do agree with that. I think if the

369
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,519
Tigers lose this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the

370
00:19:40,519 --> 00:19:43,920
Guardians wrap this up into I think losing today would

371
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:45,359
be devastating for them.

372
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,599
Speaker 1: I would say in the past, a lot of these

373
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,720
games that we thought were going to go three ended

374
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:55,640
up being a sweep. So yeah, it's it's something that

375
00:19:56,039 --> 00:19:59,599
if if you've got a chance to play your team

376
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:01,440
and you want them to win the series, just go

377
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,200
for the sweep on it. Because you get those two

378
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,319
wins and it's over, and that's something that has paid off.

379
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,680
It doesn't mean it's going to pay off again this year.

380
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:14,440
But still that these first games are very important, and

381
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,400
as was pointed out by Brandon, if Detroit happens to

382
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,440
lose this game, then they're in some tough tough spot

383
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:26,440
because Cleveland will have the starting pitcher edge probably on them.

384
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 2: And almost like you're thinking too much, Adam like, well, yeah,

385
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,839
that's the point of the show. We're trying to break

386
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:34,599
down the games.

387
00:20:35,599 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 3: We're going deep, guys, this isn't this is a baseball

388
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:39,880
nerd show. This is not a picks show.

389
00:20:40,039 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 2: So all right, and yeah, we only got four games,

390
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,319
so we gotta you gotta give them the extra extra

391
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,559
rub here or else. We're not going to have an

392
00:20:48,559 --> 00:20:50,839
hour show. So let's get into the next game. I

393
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:52,799
thought we did a thorough breakdown there. Let's try to

394
00:20:52,799 --> 00:20:56,279
do that with Padres Cubs. Uh. This is a very

395
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:01,240
very intriguing series. To me. I don't read a ton

396
00:21:01,279 --> 00:21:03,519
of just like I read what I can. I only

397
00:21:03,559 --> 00:21:05,839
have so many hours in the day. But someone sent

398
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,319
me a good article from the Player's Tribune that Pete

399
00:21:08,319 --> 00:21:11,680
crow Armstrong wrote a couple of days ago. It's worth

400
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,279
a read if you can find it out there. He

401
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,640
kind of was. He wrote about his second half struggles

402
00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:21,559
and about like going into the playoffs, October baseball, how

403
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,759
much this means to the city of Chicago got me

404
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,759
fired up. I was ready to go, you know, go

405
00:21:25,799 --> 00:21:29,400
play after reading that. And now, of course we've got

406
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,680
Cubbies at home, and October Baseball could be short lived

407
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,200
for them if they don't win here, because as we know,

408
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,240
you're in the playoffs, but these series go quick, and

409
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,480
you lose today and suddenly it's your life is on

410
00:21:42,559 --> 00:21:47,920
the line tomorrow. Very interesting game one right here, probably

411
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,680
in my opinion, this might be the best game of

412
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,839
the day, Like, this is the most interesting game of

413
00:21:52,839 --> 00:21:55,480
the day for me, because you have the Padres as

414
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,519
an underdog on the road at Wrigley. It should be

415
00:21:58,559 --> 00:22:01,160
in a tremendous atmosphere at Rigging. They're going to end

416
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,039
up having to go with Matt Boyd because of course,

417
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,559
Kate Horton might have been the guy in this game,

418
00:22:05,559 --> 00:22:08,880
but now he's hurt. And Nick Pivetta has been great,

419
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,759
but the Padres Brian Leonard have not been quite the

420
00:22:11,799 --> 00:22:14,039
same team on the road as they have at home.

421
00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:16,160
So how do you look at this one? Padres Cubs,

422
00:22:16,279 --> 00:22:18,960
Pavetta Boyd? All right, do you have a play here.

423
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're looking at basically the White Sox have been

424
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,720
met up a little bit. They're up to about one

425
00:22:25,599 --> 00:22:27,920
on twenty three or so with a total of seven.

426
00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:34,039
Matthew Boyd did a press conference yesterday and it was

427
00:22:34,039 --> 00:22:36,920
pretty touching. He said he'd gone his first eight years

428
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,400
without making it to the playoffs and he's so excited

429
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,240
to be here. And he said his grandfather was always

430
00:22:43,279 --> 00:22:46,519
a Chicago Cubs fan, and I believe he'd passed away,

431
00:22:46,599 --> 00:22:49,079
and he was tearing up a little bit when he

432
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,240
was talking about it, but he gets the call here

433
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,960
at home. It was somewhat I was somewhat surprised with

434
00:22:55,039 --> 00:22:58,359
the opening number on the series being the Cubs minus

435
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,440
one fifteen, and of course it's up to about one

436
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,799
point thirty now. Chicago getting all three of those at home,

437
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,400
I thought was a big advantage in this. And plus

438
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,680
they're hitters. They're starting to get their hitters back, and

439
00:23:12,079 --> 00:23:15,240
we'll see if they continue to play well. But this

440
00:23:15,319 --> 00:23:18,160
is a team. Both these teams have been basically tread

441
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,480
and water for a while. Now we'll see if somebody

442
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,880
can is able to turn it right on. But Pavetta's

443
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,799
flyball pitcher, but As I mentioned before, the wind is

444
00:23:27,839 --> 00:23:33,160
blowing straight in here, so that's going to make his

445
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,799
start even better because that's usually if Nick Pavetta is

446
00:23:37,079 --> 00:23:39,640
the last few seasons he gets in trouble with home runs.

447
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,359
Other than that, the guy's been a great pitcher, and

448
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,240
as I said, for him to be around a free

449
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,960
agent for as long as he was, San Diego made

450
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,440
a great deal. And if you take a look at

451
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,279
some of the other signings in the offseason, you got

452
00:23:52,319 --> 00:23:55,599
to say Pavetta is probably the best pitching signing for

453
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,200
a starter, and San Diego did a really nice job

454
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,839
on that. But do I trustee of the one of

455
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:05,640
these teams. They're so hard to predict at this point.

456
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,799
I think the line is somewhat cheap with Boyd, but

457
00:24:09,279 --> 00:24:12,440
we've talked in the past about those because of his

458
00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:15,519
injuries he's had, He's already way past where he's pitched

459
00:24:15,559 --> 00:24:21,039
the last two years, and now, as you mentioned, without Horton,

460
00:24:21,839 --> 00:24:24,720
he has to get even more innings here in the playoffs.

461
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,359
This could be one of those where if it gets

462
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,640
to five innings or in the four innings, they may

463
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:32,839
pull the plug on them early and let the bullpen

464
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:37,400
come around. San Diego should feel pretty good about Paveta

465
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,359
going deeper in this game. So I don't know which

466
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,480
way to take It's the line is about where I

467
00:24:42,599 --> 00:24:45,559
made it, so I'm probably not going to get involved

468
00:24:45,559 --> 00:24:46,200
in this one.

469
00:24:48,039 --> 00:24:50,799
Speaker 3: Five dollars Tuesday, guys, we all have plays up for

470
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,160
five bucks free plays as well. Go to wajytalk dot

471
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,119
com to see what we have up. Mine's already up

472
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:03,920
by the way. Yeah, these two teams. I have these

473
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,720
two teams matched up less than a point apart. This

474
00:25:06,839 --> 00:25:10,839
is the tightest matchup of all the playoff matchups, according

475
00:25:10,839 --> 00:25:16,200
to my numbers the eye tests. Padres have such a

476
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:21,079
plethora of talent, but they're underperform year after year. I

477
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,440
was surprised to look at the records and see that

478
00:25:23,519 --> 00:25:25,920
Chicago has two more wins than the Padres. That kind

479
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,039
of surprised me because Padres are more talented in my opinion,

480
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,920
But and Padres have one of the best bullpens, but

481
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:38,160
they underperform always and I don't know why. So Paveta

482
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,119
and Boyd looking at their stats against the batters they're

483
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,160
facing today, they both have been rocked pretty good and

484
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,160
it's a good sample size, so my inclination would be

485
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,319
go to the over because we've got two power lineups here,

486
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:55,440
but we also have two good bullpens. So hmm, kind

487
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,440
of gridlocked here. Every stat I look at that makes

488
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,640
me lean this way, I find another death that makes

489
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,000
me look this way. So I'm totally good lucked in this.

490
00:26:03,559 --> 00:26:05,480
There's no way I'm going to bet this game. I'm

491
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:08,079
probably not gonna bet this series at all because I

492
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,559
got these teams just so dead.

493
00:26:09,599 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: Even Brian, can I get my Wrigley Field weather report

494
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,920
from you? I pretty much ask every time we have

495
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:17,480
a Cubs game.

496
00:26:18,319 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, the wind's blowing directly and home runs shoot me

497
00:26:21,759 --> 00:26:26,559
down fifteen percent, doubles and triples plus one percent, singles

498
00:26:26,559 --> 00:26:30,200
down seven percent, and total runs down eleven percent.

499
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. I guessed as much when I saw the total

500
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,599
that there might be some wind blowing in. It doesn't,

501
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,519
I gotta be honest, though, it doesn't totally put me

502
00:26:40,599 --> 00:26:43,680
off the over. Here at seven flat, I kind of

503
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,079
go back to, you know, so what Tokyo Brandon said, Yeah,

504
00:26:46,079 --> 00:26:49,759
you do have two lineups that are capable. I think

505
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,240
you have two pitchers. I'm not as high as the

506
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,240
market seems to be on Paveta. So that's like, I

507
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:57,920
don't know if it's gonna put me on the Cubs

508
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,440
per se, but like, I'm not high as high in

509
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,440
the market as Paveta. He's got a the the exit

510
00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:05,960
v LO numbers and the barrel rate numbers and the

511
00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:09,119
hard hit being in the bottom fifteen percent is concerning

512
00:27:09,559 --> 00:27:12,640
to me. Now, he doesn't really get many ground balls,

513
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,279
So if this was a scenario where the wind was

514
00:27:15,279 --> 00:27:17,920
blowing out at Wrigley, I'd probably like the Cubs a

515
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,400
lot more for that reason. I think the wind blowing

516
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,440
in definitely helps him out a little bit. On the

517
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,200
other side, I don't mind Boyd, but Brian's made this

518
00:27:28,279 --> 00:27:30,640
point well over the last couple of months. You know,

519
00:27:30,759 --> 00:27:32,759
He's really hammered the point home on the show, and

520
00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:36,640
I think it's it's worth noting that the innings may

521
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,720
have to start to catch up with him a little bit.

522
00:27:39,759 --> 00:27:41,880
I agree with with Brian in the sense that I

523
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,480
think Counsel could go to the bullpen early. I'm not

524
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,880
exactly sure that's a great thing. That's the one thing

525
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,720
this cut I don't It's not that the Cubs of

526
00:27:51,759 --> 00:27:54,359
a bad bullpen. I just don't know if I trust

527
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,119
the guys that are coming out of that bullpen in

528
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,839
a spot of this magnitude. I actually don't know if

529
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,960
I trust the Padres relievers in the in Wrigley on

530
00:28:03,079 --> 00:28:05,559
the road, Whereas, like you look at some of the

531
00:28:05,599 --> 00:28:07,880
bullpen numbers from the Padres over the last month, month

532
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,720
and a half, Mason Miller has been lights out, Suarez

533
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,359
has been lights out. They clearly have the better bullpen.

534
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,039
But you know what, I've watched Mason Miller a lot,

535
00:28:16,079 --> 00:28:19,440
and when he when he gets a little too juiced up,

536
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,839
he hasn't pitched in many big games in his career.

537
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,480
I think it's worth noting, like he spent most of

538
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,279
his time in Oakland, how many big games are he pitching? Zero?

539
00:28:27,759 --> 00:28:29,559
And then he's pitched in a couple with San Diego.

540
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,599
But there's been a couple of times where he's been

541
00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:34,759
on the road in a big spot, he's a little

542
00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:38,240
too juiced up. Suddenly he doesn't throw a strike, and

543
00:28:38,279 --> 00:28:40,960
then it's like that hundred hundred and one mile an

544
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,759
hour fastball a little less effective. He might groove one.

545
00:28:44,079 --> 00:28:47,759
I go back to ticket that I cashed earlier this year.

546
00:28:47,759 --> 00:28:49,920
He's on the road against the Marlins. They put a

547
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,559
little pressure on him. Kyle Stowers, it's a grand slam.

548
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,599
I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen here,

549
00:28:54,759 --> 00:28:57,400
but I think that just saying, oh, well, the Padres

550
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,559
have this lockdown bullpen, so they're a guarantee to go

551
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,920
get nine tough outs at Wrigley against this Cubs lineup,

552
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,960
I think you maybe need to you know, I don't

553
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,480
know that that's just a guarantee. On the flip side,

554
00:29:09,599 --> 00:29:13,839
I certainly don't think that the Cubs bullpen stringing together

555
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,319
four innings worth of outs as a guarantee either. So

556
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,200
I still kind I kind of like the over here

557
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,319
at seven flat, it doesn't take much to get to seven.

558
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,640
You get to three, three, you're free rolling. The weather

559
00:29:27,759 --> 00:29:30,880
is a little bit. It's just annoying that we don't

560
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,680
have a little bit of a breeze out. But again,

561
00:29:33,799 --> 00:29:35,880
seven flat makes me kind of like the over I

562
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,759
think you're gonna have. So let's get a chat common

563
00:29:40,799 --> 00:29:43,920
in here, because I agree with this. Wrigley's very tough

564
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,759
parked to homer in when the wind blows in. I

565
00:29:46,759 --> 00:29:49,839
don't know that you need home runs to get to seven, like,

566
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,039
just because it's a hard park to hit a home

567
00:29:52,119 --> 00:29:55,119
run in. I don't think it means that these lineups

568
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,759
couldn't get a timely hit or put up a crooked number.

569
00:29:59,119 --> 00:30:01,079
And that's the thing with some of these totals you're

570
00:30:01,079 --> 00:30:04,559
going to see in the playoffs. Seven's not that it's

571
00:30:04,599 --> 00:30:06,640
not that hard to get to sit like three to

572
00:30:06,759 --> 00:30:08,480
three and all of a sudden you can't you can't

573
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,599
lose the over. I think it's a little light. I

574
00:30:11,839 --> 00:30:14,000
still would have made it seven and a half go ahead, Bryan.

575
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. I did want to point out I'm not enamored

576
00:30:17,519 --> 00:30:19,680
with the Cup's bullpen, but they've got a lot of

577
00:30:19,799 --> 00:30:25,480
veterans Kittridge, Keller, Phil Barr, Pomerance, Rogers. They've got guys

578
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,839
who've been around for a long time, and so it's

579
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,920
not like Plunchy is one of their co closers right now,

580
00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:34,680
and he's young, he's only twenty five years old. But

581
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,039
the other guys have been around the box, so I

582
00:30:37,039 --> 00:30:38,880
don't think it'll affect them as much as it will

583
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,839
be some young players. And I did get a message

584
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,119
from my new secretary, Ralph Michaels, that you were talking

585
00:30:46,119 --> 00:30:52,319
about a package for all of us for okay, Okay,

586
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:57,599
there's okay, so I guess it's coming through. But you

587
00:30:57,599 --> 00:31:02,359
could save fifty dollars on our playoff packages ninety nine

588
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,680
dollars to the one forty nine, so it goes by

589
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,920
bases ninety nine, so I guess they're not altogether, but

590
00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:12,279
you can buy them separately bases ninety nine and save

591
00:31:12,359 --> 00:31:15,160
yourselves fifty bucks from each of us and help by

592
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,799
all three of them. So we'll get you some profit

593
00:31:18,079 --> 00:31:21,200
as was mentioned about forty six units of profit last year.

594
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,279
And you've watched this all season long, and you know

595
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,440
we know what we're doing with baseball, so yeah, join

596
00:31:28,519 --> 00:31:32,519
us with the playoffs. And I do have a excuse me,

597
00:31:32,519 --> 00:31:35,960
a four percent up for five dollars on today's card,

598
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,839
and I'll be putting up a free play later on.

599
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 2: And it bases ninety nine is what exactly? Can you

600
00:31:42,079 --> 00:31:43,839
just clarify what that is again.

601
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: Versus ninety nine? Basically, instead of getting our playoff package

602
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,640
for one hundred and forty nine, or each of our

603
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,279
playoff packages for one hundred and forty nine, you get

604
00:31:52,279 --> 00:31:54,759
them for ninety nine. So for two ninety seven you

605
00:31:54,799 --> 00:31:56,599
can get all three of our packages.

606
00:31:58,319 --> 00:32:02,119
Speaker 3: Go to whichever cap you like and use bases ninety

607
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:07,359
nine to get about thirty percent off our MLB playoffs package.

608
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:13,839
Speaker 2: Basically, right, forty seven point forty seven point five one units.

609
00:32:13,839 --> 00:32:16,240
That's what the three of us combined to make in

610
00:32:16,279 --> 00:32:17,319
the playoffs last year.

611
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 3: Basically, all of us made a profit last year in

612
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:25,599
MLB playoffs with the one you trust, and each one

613
00:32:25,599 --> 00:32:28,839
of us were offering a playoff package bases ninety nine

614
00:32:29,559 --> 00:32:33,279
ninety nine bucks for the entire MLB Playoffs until through

615
00:32:33,359 --> 00:32:39,240
the World Series. Yeah, okay, this was just a second

616
00:32:39,279 --> 00:32:43,200
comment on the Cubs Padres. Right, one thing, just a

617
00:32:43,279 --> 00:32:46,440
quick note. Padres are a very poor road team, and

618
00:32:46,559 --> 00:32:48,880
the Cubs are very good at home. So Cubs are

619
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,559
fifty and thirty one at home, Padres thirty eight and

620
00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:55,640
forty three. I think that's the only team. No, the

621
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,839
Padres and the Reds are the two teams that have

622
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,960
losing road records here. So yeah, Padres just underperform. Such

623
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,240
a hard team to trust. But dang, you're so talented.

624
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, you're right about that. And and here's the

625
00:33:08,759 --> 00:33:11,640
thing with the Padres, I think when they're when they're

626
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,720
pricing the Padres, I'm gonna get a lot of credit

627
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,559
for the bullpen. It's it's it's widely known that they

628
00:33:18,559 --> 00:33:20,319
have the best bullpen in the week. And if you

629
00:33:20,359 --> 00:33:22,480
look at a lot of the stats, like if you

630
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,160
were just to pull up bullpen stats, you're going to

631
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,319
see the Padres at the top of that list. Everyone knows, Yeah,

632
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,519
everyone knows Mason Miller is a beast. Everyone knows Robert

633
00:33:31,519 --> 00:33:34,960
Sorez is great. My whole thing is this, Like I

634
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,759
you put them in this environment, I do think it's

635
00:33:39,799 --> 00:33:42,599
a little bit of an equalizer. And then you look

636
00:33:42,599 --> 00:33:44,839
at what the Padres have done at Pecco as opposed

637
00:33:44,839 --> 00:33:49,039
to what they've done on the road. I think, I think,

638
00:33:49,079 --> 00:33:51,839
even what my numbers make this game, I don't fully

639
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,119
trust because I'm gonna I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a

640
00:33:54,119 --> 00:33:56,519
little bit here. I'm gonna bump the Cubbies a little

641
00:33:56,519 --> 00:33:59,680
bit here to being at home just standard. But I'm

642
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,359
gonna definitely downgrade the pirate of the Padres for being

643
00:34:03,359 --> 00:34:06,680
on the road because I think, a the numbers show

644
00:34:06,759 --> 00:34:09,280
that they've been worse on the road, and b those

645
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,639
big time relievers, like listen, you get Mason Miller on

646
00:34:12,679 --> 00:34:14,519
the Mount at pet Cole Park game on the line,

647
00:34:14,559 --> 00:34:17,800
He's probably gonna throw three pitches by you. The whole

648
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,039
park's gonna be behind him. It's gonna be good morning,

649
00:34:20,039 --> 00:34:22,679
good afternoon, good night on the road. I think the

650
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:24,679
outs are tougher, and so I do think that might

651
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,239
give a little bit of an edge to the Cubs

652
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:27,639
if you're looking on a side bet here.

653
00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:33,159
Speaker 3: I was just surprised going through. I didn't realize the

654
00:34:33,199 --> 00:34:36,119
Cubs won that many games. It didn't seem like they did,

655
00:34:36,159 --> 00:34:43,400
but they did. Pretty good team, talented team.

656
00:34:41,519 --> 00:34:44,159
Speaker 2: Very interesting game. I'm not gonna I want to see

657
00:34:44,159 --> 00:34:46,480
how the other two play out in terms of our

658
00:34:46,519 --> 00:34:49,039
discussions on them, but I'll I may circle back to

659
00:34:49,079 --> 00:34:53,159
that one. We'll see. Okay, let's move on, Red Sox Yankees.

660
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,119
What a treat. Some of these matchups are wild Card

661
00:34:57,199 --> 00:35:01,199
round and we're getting Guardians Tigers, We're getting Red Sox

662
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,639
Yankees division rivals. You love to see that another chapter

663
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,280
if you will, in the Red Sox Yankees rivalry. We're

664
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,000
gonna get to We're gonna get to see the crashouts

665
00:35:12,199 --> 00:35:14,440
of one of these fan bases over the next couple

666
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,039
of days. So that should be great for neutral people

667
00:35:17,039 --> 00:35:20,079
that don't care about either team. But it's Garrett Crochet,

668
00:35:20,119 --> 00:35:25,000
It's Max Freed Yankee Stadium, Red Sox Yankees, Brian Leonard,

669
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,320
you get involved in this one.

670
00:35:27,199 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I may be Crochet going for the Boston Freed

671
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,159
for the Yankees. The Yankees are about a one thirty

672
00:35:34,159 --> 00:35:37,960
favorite or so a total of seven, but I'm more

673
00:35:38,039 --> 00:35:42,079
interested in the series price. We're getting the Yankees right

674
00:35:42,119 --> 00:35:45,480
now in about a one eighty five range. The reason

675
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:49,079
why I like the Yankees in the series is because

676
00:35:49,119 --> 00:35:54,599
you've got Boston's clearly best pitcher going today, and yet

677
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,280
the Yankees are about a one thirty favorite in the game.

678
00:35:58,039 --> 00:36:00,800
The next two games, if it does get to that point,

679
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,920
will have huge advantages for the Yankees. They've got better

680
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:10,320
starting pitchers than Boston. Boston's got some young talent, but

681
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,719
these are all young guys that haven't been in this

682
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,639
position before. You take a look at the Yankees, and

683
00:36:15,679 --> 00:36:20,199
they've got Rode down out there. Schlittler has pitched terrific

684
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,800
down the stretch, and the Yankees have that ability where

685
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,519
I know the bullpen struggled early on, but he's pitching

686
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:31,920
much better now and from a hitting standpoint, Obviously, the

687
00:36:32,039 --> 00:36:34,800
Yankees have the better hitters. They're the better home run hitters.

688
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,119
Boston really doesn't have a lot of home run power.

689
00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:43,880
They had their third baseman who wouldn't leave. Devers was

690
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,119
the guy who they couldn't get to play first base.

691
00:36:47,119 --> 00:36:49,599
He leaves, and if you go back and look, he

692
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,039
was really good in Boston. He was really hot when

693
00:36:52,039 --> 00:36:55,400
he played. And then you also have the Boston rookie

694
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,360
who is no longer there and he's not playing right now.

695
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,480
And those are the two. Really, they're two best hitters

696
00:37:02,519 --> 00:37:05,639
on the season. Bregman started the year great, but he

697
00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:08,800
hasn't hit well in the second half. I've got some

698
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,079
concerns against Boston. Normally, when Boston gets together with the Yankees,

699
00:37:12,119 --> 00:37:14,599
I like to play the underdog in that. I just

700
00:37:14,639 --> 00:37:17,039
think the Yankees right now are so much better than

701
00:37:17,039 --> 00:37:21,039
this current Boston offense. It's you're not going to find

702
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,039
a better discrepancy, a bigger discrepancy other than maybe the

703
00:37:25,119 --> 00:37:27,599
Dodters in the in the Reds from the hitting department.

704
00:37:28,159 --> 00:37:31,079
But the Yankees are much better hitters than Boston is.

705
00:37:31,079 --> 00:37:34,840
They got much better power, and there are playing at home,

706
00:37:35,119 --> 00:37:37,719
and I like the way, the bullpen's coming out, So

707
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,199
I'm not going to get involved in this Game one,

708
00:37:40,519 --> 00:37:42,800
but I do like the Yankees to win this series.

709
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:44,519
That would be my better bet in this.

710
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,639
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, hard to argue with that, given the fact

711
00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:56,079
that after Crochet, the Red Sox will be putting out

712
00:37:56,599 --> 00:38:00,639
Brian Bao and Lucas Ciliedo's out, So who do they

713
00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:05,920
got after that? Kyle Harrison, I don't know. If this

714
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,519
goes to Game three, they're in trouble. They're in trouble

715
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:13,199
if this goes to Game three, because the Yankees probably

716
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,119
will not start Will Warren. They'll probably go with Schlitler

717
00:38:16,159 --> 00:38:18,880
over Warren in Game three. But anyways, we're jumping ahead

718
00:38:19,559 --> 00:38:23,559
regarding today's game. This is so great. I love Playoff

719
00:38:23,599 --> 00:38:26,760
Baseball Game ones because you get such good pitching matchup.

720
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,519
We've got Crochet and Free. This is two top ten

721
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,400
MLB pitchers, and if you look how they performed against

722
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:38,559
the teams they're facing both, you know, as you would expect,

723
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,559
like two twenty averages against the teams they're facing in

724
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:46,480
like six hundred ops. Is not great, not horrible, but

725
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:52,119
definitely better than average. Yankees have pretty much every advantage,

726
00:38:52,159 --> 00:38:55,840
but kind of a slight advantage the bullpen, though they

727
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,719
do have quite a big advantage over Boston here, but

728
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,320
the hitting I got the Yankees ranked six where I

729
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:05,719
got Boston ranked ten, So slight advantage. But overall, Yankees

730
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,719
are the better team. But I like Crochet a little

731
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:13,119
more than I like Freed, but is a pitching advantage.

732
00:39:13,159 --> 00:39:16,559
This is kind of similar to the Tigers game today.

733
00:39:17,519 --> 00:39:21,719
I like the Tigers starter better, but is just having

734
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,519
a better starter enough to take them No, I don't

735
00:39:25,559 --> 00:39:30,760
think so. I think the books, when they're pricing things

736
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,320
they consider starting pitching. They put a little too much

737
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:39,079
emphasis on starting pitching sometimes. But given the fact that

738
00:39:39,119 --> 00:39:41,599
I like Crochet better than Freed, I was surprised to

739
00:39:41,599 --> 00:39:45,679
see the Yankees favored here. Something's wacky about this number.

740
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,480
But Boston, if they don't win this game, they're in

741
00:39:48,559 --> 00:39:51,360
deep trouble. I'm not going to bet the game, though,

742
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,400
but I do think the Yankees will probably win.

743
00:39:57,599 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to make a statement that I think people

744
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,920
will disagree with, but listen, hear me out first, because

745
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,960
I'm uh the Yankees are the best team in the

746
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:12,280
American League. I'm not saying they're going to the World Series, Okay, matchups,

747
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,280
It's hard to string together wins in the playoffs this

748
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,320
right now, and in my opinion is the is the

749
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:21,159
most talented team in the AL. And listen, the Mariners

750
00:40:21,159 --> 00:40:22,840
have a great team. But I think when you take

751
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:30,639
everything into account, hitting, pitching, ballpark factors, right like, everything

752
00:40:30,679 --> 00:40:33,280
into account, I think the Yankees are the toughest out

753
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,599
in the AL right now. And the fact that they

754
00:40:36,599 --> 00:40:39,480
get this game at home is massive. I said a

755
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,360
couple of weeks ago, I thought the Red the Red

756
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,360
Sox would be the odd team out in the American League.

757
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,800
The only reason that they weren't is because the Astros

758
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,800
couldn't beat the UH, the Oakland, the West, Sacramento A's

759
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,400
down the stretch right It's the only reason the Red

760
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,079
Sox are still in the playoffs, in my opinion, is

761
00:40:57,079 --> 00:40:59,480
that the Astros couldn't. Now, maybe they would have gotten

762
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,360
in over the time, I'm not sure. But the point is,

763
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,480
the point I'm trying to make with the Red Sox

764
00:41:03,599 --> 00:41:07,119
is they haven't been a playoff team since Roman Anthony

765
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,880
went down. It's Titan CT. I still like the Jas,

766
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,119
but I'm saying that I think the Yankees are the

767
00:41:14,119 --> 00:41:17,000
most talented team. I think when you take this, when

768
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,280
you look at this Yankees team, put them on their

769
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,519
home field. Look at what Max Freed has done over

770
00:41:22,559 --> 00:41:25,800
the past month and a half. Six last seven starts

771
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,360
for Max Freed six and zero, one point five to

772
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,519
five ERA. Like if I don't know, I don't know

773
00:41:32,559 --> 00:41:34,800
that there's another guy right now that I want with

774
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,840
the ball in the playoff game like that I that

775
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,599
I trust more maybe than Max Free. I mean, you

776
00:41:42,639 --> 00:41:44,519
talk about the Blue Jays. I'm not going to go

777
00:41:44,599 --> 00:41:47,239
too far off topic. Who do you want on that

778
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,440
team with the ball right now? That you're like, yeah,

779
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,480
I love this, I love this spot in a playoff game, right,

780
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,719
Who do you want on the Guardians? Gavin Williams? You

781
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,360
know what I'm saying. I'm talking about Look at the

782
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,559
American League. You want Logan Gilbert in there? Like he's

783
00:42:00,599 --> 00:42:03,239
been good, but I also think he's hurt. I'm just saying,

784
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:08,639
like this Yankees team, Max Freed them at home. Judge,

785
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,199
I know he hasn't been great in the playoffs in

786
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,719
his career, but that that's a small sample that could

787
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,440
obviously change. I think the Yankees are going to be

788
00:42:15,559 --> 00:42:17,760
very tough out. I agree with Brian. I like them

789
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,639
to win this series, and I will make them our

790
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,559
parlay league here. So my parlay league's gonna be Yankees.

791
00:42:23,599 --> 00:42:27,840
Money line. Didn't don't love minus one thirty against Crochet. Listen.

792
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,719
I respect the hell out of Garrett Crochet. He's a

793
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,159
great pitcher. But outside of him here, I just don't

794
00:42:32,159 --> 00:42:34,480
see what the Red Sox have that gives them any

795
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,280
sort of edge in this game. Brian, go ahead.

796
00:42:36,639 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. When I look at the fan Rex Grafts page

797
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:43,119
for the roster resource they've got over the last fourteen days,

798
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:45,880
Max Free is the number one pitcher in Major League Baseball,

799
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,000
number one starter, and if you look at the last

800
00:42:49,039 --> 00:42:52,239
seven days from hitting, Aaron Judge is the number one hitter,

801
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:58,119
and Carlos Stanton Mike Stanton, if you were long ago

802
00:42:58,599 --> 00:43:01,239
like me, he's the ninth best pitcher. So they've got

803
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,280
their three and four hitters are both top ten hitting

804
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,679
right now, and their starting pitcher is the best for

805
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,920
the last fourteen days. It's tough to go against that,

806
00:43:11,119 --> 00:43:13,400
you know, Aaron Judge. As much as we like the

807
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,960
big dumper, Aaron Joaz is probably the most talented hitter

808
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,000
in Major League baseball, at least in the American League,

809
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,559
and he's the hottest hitter in baseball the last week,

810
00:43:23,039 --> 00:43:25,199
anything can happen, and the playoffs are a little bit

811
00:43:25,199 --> 00:43:28,800
different ballgame. But he's coming in here red hot. So

812
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,320
it's hard to go against the Yankees right now. I

813
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,679
think Seattle is the better team. I think they will

814
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:37,480
win the American League. But you made a great point.

815
00:43:37,559 --> 00:43:42,119
The Yankees are a tough out. They've got the experience,

816
00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:44,320
they've got a lot of depth, and we all know

817
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,760
the changes they made into their bullpen, which are starting

818
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,400
to pay off a little bit right now. So yeah,

819
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:50,840
one of the reasons why I like the Yankees to

820
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:51,920
win this series.

821
00:43:52,559 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 2: If it does become Seattle Yankees, I'll say this about

822
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,760
that series. The Mariners will have a much tougher time

823
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,199
winning in the Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will have winning

824
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,320
in Seattle. I think that would be the only sort

825
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,800
of you know, thing I would say about that, because

826
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,159
I'm not disagreeing with you the Mariners. I do think

827
00:44:09,199 --> 00:44:13,199
if you were to put rosters bullpen starting pitching, I could,

828
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,400
you know, And obviously I've liked them all year, I've

829
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,800
invested in them, so I hope they win. But like

830
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,079
when I look at like their biggest competition in the

831
00:44:21,079 --> 00:44:22,480
American League, I thought it was going to be the

832
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,480
Blue Jays. But now that you start to see some

833
00:44:24,519 --> 00:44:26,920
of the injuries that they've had and I kind of

834
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,360
look at their rotation, I'm like, I don't know if

835
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,440
that rotation matches up with one of those two point

836
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,000
I'm trying to make here is I think the Yankees

837
00:44:34,039 --> 00:44:36,800
are very talented. I think they're starting to play their

838
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,440
best baseball at the right time. If you go back

839
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,679
to that Marlin series, which was a total disaster for

840
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,119
the Yankees, They're kicking the ball all over the field.

841
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,280
Jash Chishom's thrown it into the fourth row. They're getting beat

842
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:52,840
I think they got swept in Miami like almost since

843
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,840
that point, it was like it was the low point

844
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,400
of the season for them. The Yankees have really turned

845
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,800
it around. And I don't know that it's they've gotten

846
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,960
the they've deserve for it because they didn't win a division.

847
00:45:03,639 --> 00:45:06,880
There's been other better kind of stories in Major League Baseball.

848
00:45:07,519 --> 00:45:09,719
Is I'll throw this out to both of you, is

849
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,960
it safe to say the Yankees have flown under the

850
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:13,880
radar A little bit right now, because I just don't

851
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,760
think they're getting the hype they usually get.

852
00:45:18,639 --> 00:45:19,079
Speaker 1: I agree.

853
00:45:19,119 --> 00:45:21,519
Speaker 3: I think that might have to do with the fact

854
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:26,559
that they didn't win the division number one, and they're

855
00:45:26,599 --> 00:45:29,840
probably the worst fielding team in all of Major League Baseball.

856
00:45:30,199 --> 00:45:33,360
Those two factors probably take them off the radar a little.

857
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:37,519
But you're right, they are extremely talented. Even after Judge

858
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:41,320
and Stanton, they still have some decent hitting, which I

859
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,440
didn't expect at the beginning of the season.

860
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,559
Speaker 1: I will point out the Jazz chis and was injured

861
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,039
and I haven't seen if he's playing today or not.

862
00:45:50,639 --> 00:45:54,480
Bad defensive player, but the guy does have a decent bat,

863
00:45:54,599 --> 00:45:56,159
so he's been very good.

864
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, the margins are so thin in the playoffs,

865
00:45:59,599 --> 00:46:02,519
especially you get a matchuplake this. We could sit here

866
00:46:02,519 --> 00:46:04,960
and argue all day who's better Crochet or Freed. It's

867
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,360
a very I mean, you can make incredible cases for both,

868
00:46:08,679 --> 00:46:11,000
but I just think if this game got into the bullpens,

869
00:46:11,039 --> 00:46:13,400
I'd rather have the Yankees bullpen on their home field.

870
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,960
That I'm not a huge fan of the group of

871
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,239
Red Sox relievers. And then, of course you're now going

872
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:20,880
to put them in a tough, high leverage spot in

873
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:26,119
Yankee Stadium. Priced appropriately probably, but again, we only have

874
00:46:26,199 --> 00:46:29,639
four games to choose from, and for the parlay, I'm

875
00:46:29,679 --> 00:46:32,480
okay with minus one thirty so and I agree with you, Brian.

876
00:46:32,559 --> 00:46:35,360
I think the Yankee series bet is a great bet.

877
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,760
I don't see the Red Sox twenty this series, so yeah,

878
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,840
I will go with the Yankees. And that brings us

879
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,719
to our final game. I think I've tied this out nicely.

880
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,599
We've got thirteen minutes left on the show. One more

881
00:46:47,639 --> 00:46:50,360
game to talk about Tokyo. Brandon is gonna get us

882
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,800
a chance to talk about how Dave Roberts is a

883
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,360
terrible manager. But we're gonna let Brian Leonard go first.

884
00:46:55,440 --> 00:47:00,159
So the nightcap tonight out West Reds, Dodgers, Hunter Green,

885
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:01,519
Blake Snow. Who do you have here?

886
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: Snell the lefty, Green the righty. We're looking at the

887
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,360
Dodgers about yeah, about a two dollars favorite right now,

888
00:47:10,079 --> 00:47:13,119
with the line total of seven slightly to the over.

889
00:47:14,199 --> 00:47:16,679
If you're looking at the series, the Dodgers are upward

890
00:47:16,679 --> 00:47:21,280
to the three dollars range two eighty to three dollars. Obviously,

891
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:28,039
the Dodgers have the better pitching, although Hunter Green's been terrific,

892
00:47:28,159 --> 00:47:31,480
He's just been awesome. But he's much better at home

893
00:47:31,519 --> 00:47:34,320
than he is on the road on the season. And

894
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:40,480
you could actually say that this could be like found

895
00:47:40,519 --> 00:47:44,559
money for the Reds because they weren't expected to be there.

896
00:47:44,679 --> 00:47:47,880
They had fallen back, and you know, the Mets put

897
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:50,519
him in this position. They didn't win the playoff spot.

898
00:47:50,559 --> 00:47:54,079
The Mets just choked it away. And so Cincinnati comes in,

899
00:47:54,679 --> 00:47:57,440
you know, with no pressure at all on him, and

900
00:47:57,519 --> 00:48:01,239
the Dodgers obviously being the defending champs and all the

901
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,239
money they have in the team, there's a lot more

902
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:07,199
pressure on the Dodgers. So this first game is very important.

903
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:11,119
If Cincinnati was to win this game, there'd be a

904
00:48:11,159 --> 00:48:14,679
ton of pressure on the Dodgers after that. And that's

905
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,880
something that I don't want to lay. I have them

906
00:48:18,159 --> 00:48:20,960
laying three dollars as a favorite in this so and

907
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,320
when you get to the playoffs, every team that's in

908
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:28,559
the playoffs has been able to win on other teams fields.

909
00:48:28,559 --> 00:48:30,960
They've been able to beat good pitchers as the season

910
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,119
goes on. It's not like you got the road Rockies

911
00:48:33,159 --> 00:48:35,719
here where they've only won what eighteen games over the

912
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,760
entire season on the road, We've got all every series

913
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:44,039
has got teams that are very good at the underdog role.

914
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:47,400
Now that said, I don't know if I'm going to

915
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,440
get there with Cincinnati, but I can't lay this number

916
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,960
with the Dodgers. It's just too much for me against

917
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,360
a team that's even even if you're a five hundred

918
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:59,159
ball club, which basically the Cincinnati Reds were, and they're

919
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:00,880
much better at home and they are on the road,

920
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:05,519
there's still a good team. And a lot of this

921
00:49:05,599 --> 00:49:09,559
will depend on if the Dodgers get Smith back at catcher.

922
00:49:09,679 --> 00:49:12,440
Now they say he's probably going to be back, but

923
00:49:12,519 --> 00:49:15,800
he is so good about shutting down the opposition's running game,

924
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:17,800
and that's what Cincinnati can do.

925
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:18,159
Speaker 2: Now.

926
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,559
Speaker 1: Granted they didn't still these many bases this year is

927
00:49:21,599 --> 00:49:24,800
they had in the past. Francona is not a guy

928
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,840
who goes out there and trusts to steal that extra base.

929
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,880
But that shuts down a major part of the Cincinnati

930
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,000
team because from a power perspective, the Dodgers have a

931
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:39,320
lot more power than Cincinnati does, and Cincinnati's got to

932
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,840
be able against the quality pitching like the Dodgers they've

933
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:44,320
got to be able to run into some runs, steal

934
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,519
some bases, go for first third, that kind of thing.

935
00:49:47,079 --> 00:49:49,480
So with Smith the catcher, I think that's a big deal.

936
00:49:49,559 --> 00:49:53,599
If he's starting at catcher, I don't want Cincinnati. If

937
00:49:53,639 --> 00:49:57,360
for some reason he's dhing today, then there's more value

938
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,280
on Cincinnati in that regard. If he asked me.

939
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 3: The Dodgers have talented pitching, they have talented starting pitching.

940
00:50:06,559 --> 00:50:09,920
They have good names in their bullpen, but their bullpen

941
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,840
has been atrocious this season. I mean Blake Trying, and yes,

942
00:50:14,559 --> 00:50:16,360
he was injured for a lot of the season, but

943
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,280
since he's come back from injury, he has not been himself.

944
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:25,079
Makes me worried because many guys in the clubhouse will

945
00:50:25,119 --> 00:50:29,880
say he has the best stuff in that bullpen. Tanner

946
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:33,559
Scott awful. Since he came to the Dodgers. I expected

947
00:50:33,559 --> 00:50:37,159
big things from him. He's been terrible this he has

948
00:50:37,199 --> 00:50:40,199
been good. Who else has been good in their bullpen.

949
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,679
They've got two guys who have been consistent.

950
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 1: In their bullpen.

951
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:47,119
Speaker 3: Uh, and then they're just thrown out dudes out there.

952
00:50:47,159 --> 00:50:50,440
So the bullpen is hard to trust. But I like

953
00:50:50,519 --> 00:50:52,960
the Dodgers. I'm gonna make the Dodgers my parlay leg.

954
00:50:53,159 --> 00:50:56,880
I'm gonna make them Dodgers first five money line my

955
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:01,400
parlay leg. And I'll tell you why. Hunter has been

956
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:05,519
great this season. But he has an eight hundred OPS

957
00:51:05,519 --> 00:51:08,800
against the Dodgers in his career against these batters, and

958
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:12,599
one of the biggest discrepancies in home road records. He's

959
00:51:13,199 --> 00:51:15,679
one five eighty R at home and a four to

960
00:51:15,679 --> 00:51:20,320
eight ERA on the road. And that's not against the Dodgers,

961
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:24,000
that's against anyone. So I think the Dodgers have a

962
00:51:24,039 --> 00:51:28,079
good potential to tag Green here early. Several ways you

963
00:51:28,119 --> 00:51:31,719
could go here, Dodgers first five over one and a

964
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,480
half even, I think would be a decent way to go.

965
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:40,480
But Blake Snell against these Reds unbelievable numbers forty eight

966
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:44,000
at bats against, one oh four average against and a

967
00:51:44,199 --> 00:51:49,559
three fourteen OPS. That's almost four hundred points below what

968
00:51:49,679 --> 00:51:53,920
I consider the Mendoz aligned for ops unbelievable numbers. I

969
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,400
think Blake Snell is going to shut these batters down.

970
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,920
The Reds are the one team that pretty much doesn't

971
00:52:00,079 --> 00:52:02,760
long in the playoffs. They backed their way in by

972
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,679
losing their last game, and they got lucky that the

973
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:10,320
Mets lost, so uh, I mean, they don't belong here.

974
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,440
I think the Dodgers will just mop him up, in

975
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,920
my opinion, so that's gonna be the The bullpen does

976
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:21,320
worry me, but uh yeah, Dave Roberts, Yeah, let me. Well,

977
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,679
we'll go on Dave Robert. We'll wait till Dave Roberts

978
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,159
blows a game and then I'll go off on him.

979
00:52:26,159 --> 00:52:28,400
But I'll give him, I'll give him a long lease

980
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,159
until he makes a dumb mistake. If he pulls Blake

981
00:52:32,199 --> 00:52:34,440
Snell after three innings, I'm gonna throw up.

982
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:42,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, listen TV. I can't. I can't disagree with that.

983
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:47,079
All your all your points are sound points. The one

984
00:52:47,079 --> 00:52:48,840
thing I will, I guess, push back on a little

985
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,159
bit is like I don't think that it matters that

986
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,400
maybe like a team backed their way into the playoffs.

987
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,760
Like I don't think that's like a way to sort

988
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,559
of like make a case against the team, because again,

989
00:52:58,599 --> 00:53:00,559
I think you get in sometimes you get in in

990
00:53:00,599 --> 00:53:03,519
that fashion, like Brian Leonard said, you're playing with house money.

991
00:53:03,519 --> 00:53:06,199
You're very dangerous. That being said, in this matchup, I

992
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,800
definitely think this matchup suits the Dodgers. I kind of

993
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:14,519
like that Dodgers team total over. I think Dodgers team

994
00:53:14,559 --> 00:53:18,280
total over is a pretty good way to go here.

995
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:21,199
Reason I think that you could see some runs in

996
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:25,360
this game, especially maybe the Dodgers scoring some runs. Hunter

997
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:29,360
Green is really like he's gonna throw almost all fastballs,

998
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:34,960
probably probably fifty five to sixty fastballs. And like, I mean,

999
00:53:35,079 --> 00:53:37,599
if you look at what he's done this season, it's

1000
00:53:37,599 --> 00:53:40,800
one hundred miles an hour here it is do something

1001
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,039
with it. And the Dodgers are one of the teams

1002
00:53:43,039 --> 00:53:45,719
that can do something with that, probably more so than

1003
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,320
some other teams. So you know, if you look at

1004
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:51,800
Hunter greens underl like the statcast page is metrics, it's

1005
00:53:52,199 --> 00:53:56,519
it's very good except in exit below and hard hit rate.

1006
00:53:56,559 --> 00:53:58,280
And he doesn't get a ton of ground balls. The

1007
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,159
reason he doesn't get a ton of ground balls he

1008
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:02,400
likes to pitch up in the zone. Why does he

1009
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:04,719
like to pitch up in the zone. Because most guys

1010
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:07,960
cannot handle one hundred up in the zone. It's a

1011
00:54:08,039 --> 00:54:11,320
tough pitch to handle. A lot. He beats a lot

1012
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,360
of good major league hitters because he throws one hundred

1013
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:15,840
miles an hour and he put and he puts it

1014
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:17,960
near the top of the zone where it's still a strike,

1015
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,599
but you want to swing at it. Elite hitters can

1016
00:54:21,679 --> 00:54:24,880
handle that. And when an elite hitter, let's say a

1017
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,719
show Hey Otani or even a Mookie Bets or a

1018
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,159
Freddie Friedman or Will Smith or or a Max Muntzi

1019
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:34,400
or a taoscar Hernandez cat gets a hold of one

1020
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,119
hundred at the top of the zone, where does that

1021
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:41,159
ball end up in the seats, in the in the crowd.

1022
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,280
That's where one hundred miles an hour up ends up

1023
00:54:44,519 --> 00:54:46,960
with a guy that can square it up. The thing is,

1024
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,440
for Hunter Green, a lot of teams don't have six

1025
00:54:49,599 --> 00:54:51,920
or seven guys that can square that pitch up. The

1026
00:54:52,079 --> 00:54:55,400
Dodgers have six or seven guys that can square up

1027
00:54:55,599 --> 00:54:58,480
one hundred miles hour four steamer and put it in

1028
00:54:58,519 --> 00:55:01,039
the seats. And that's why when I see his hard

1029
00:55:01,119 --> 00:55:03,119
hit percentage and his exit be low, being in the

1030
00:55:03,159 --> 00:55:06,599
bottom twenty percent of Major League Baseball, but his numbers

1031
00:55:06,639 --> 00:55:09,559
being so good, what does that tell me? Well, he's

1032
00:55:09,599 --> 00:55:11,719
gonna blow that by a lot of people, a lot

1033
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:13,719
of players. It's gonna get, you know, and he's not

1034
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,400
giving up many base runners. You're not gonna really string

1035
00:55:16,559 --> 00:55:19,599
hits together against Hunter Green. What you can do, though,

1036
00:55:20,039 --> 00:55:22,440
is catch up to one hundred up and then put

1037
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,039
it eight rows deep in the seat and all of

1038
00:55:24,039 --> 00:55:26,599
a sudden you have a couple of runs. Team total

1039
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,039
is like over three and a half minus one forty

1040
00:55:29,519 --> 00:55:32,760
minus one forty five. Kind of I'm kind of gonna

1041
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,000
be surprised if the Dodgers don't get to four runs here.

1042
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,320
And also, just if you want to talk about the

1043
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,320
game total or if you like the Reds at all,

1044
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,639
I'm almost gonna be a little bit surprised if the

1045
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,639
game totals doesn't go over, because I do think the

1046
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:47,719
Reds are gonna have to score some runs to stay

1047
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:49,960
in this game. So if you like the Reds, I

1048
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:51,599
think you have to like the over a little bit.

1049
00:55:51,679 --> 00:55:53,480
Like I'm just not seeing like a two to one

1050
00:55:53,599 --> 00:55:56,760
type game, which I guess is a statement because of course,

1051
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,719
Blake Snell Hunter Green like they're both really good pitchers.

1052
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,800
Snell has been great of late Tokyo Braindon pointed out

1053
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:04,760
that there might be some runs late to be had

1054
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:06,800
off the Dodgers bullpen. I don't disagree with that either,

1055
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:10,199
So I think the best way to play it, TV,

1056
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,199
I kind of agree with you first five. If you

1057
00:56:12,199 --> 00:56:14,239
don't like the money line, maybe like the over and

1058
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:16,800
the first five being one and a half that seems

1059
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:19,840
very low. That's basically a bluepan of blast, and you're there,

1060
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:23,360
and that's probably gonna happen. I wouldn't be surprised if

1061
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,679
if you get two times through the order against Hunter

1062
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,360
Green in those first couple of innings, like someone's gonna

1063
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,960
hit one pretty far, and if it goes out of

1064
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,119
the ballpark, you might have that first five over. So

1065
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,239
I'm with you there, TV, go ahead.

1066
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,679
Speaker 3: It can one hundred mile an hour. Have you seen

1067
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:41,719
how have you seen Otani's barrel speed? My god, he

1068
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:42,480
swings up best.

1069
00:56:42,519 --> 00:56:43,559
Speaker 2: That's what I'm talking about.

1070
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:47,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, versus guys fastballs too, and that's what Green throws.

1071
00:56:48,159 --> 00:56:50,599
I do want to point out that for some reason,

1072
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:54,239
Cincinnati's decided Zach Lyttel will be the starter for Game

1073
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:57,280
two kind of surprised me as well. As Abbott and

1074
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,639
Lodolo have pitched. Maybe he's just gonna pitch couple innings

1075
00:57:00,679 --> 00:57:03,760
as maybe an opener, and then Abbot or Lodello will

1076
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,360
come in after that. But that was a little bit

1077
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,360
of a surprise this morning, and then Singer has been

1078
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,400
pretty solid all year along too, so interesting how they're

1079
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:15,039
setting that up. Keep that in mind tomorrow that Hottel

1080
00:57:15,159 --> 00:57:17,800
will be starting, but we don't know how long he'll

1081
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,800
be going, and he's a flagball pitcher. I guess pretty good.

1082
00:57:23,679 --> 00:57:25,599
Speaker 3: I think the Reds are in big trouble. I mean,

1083
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,559
they're five hundred baseball team, they don't belong in the playoffs.

1084
00:57:28,679 --> 00:57:31,760
They're in big trouble in my opinion. But I said

1085
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:33,920
the same thing about Max Muntsey, and I said the

1086
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:35,920
same thing about the Brewers, and look what happened to

1087
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:40,280
both of them. Brewers had the best record in MLB

1088
00:57:41,039 --> 00:57:42,239
ninety seven wins.

1089
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 2: So chat risen waving the Chat points out, Yeah, that

1090
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:51,119
I think the Dodgers got to Green last time they

1091
00:57:51,159 --> 00:57:53,159
saw him, which is probably about a month ago, and

1092
00:57:53,599 --> 00:57:55,440
it was a similar type thing where I think they

1093
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:58,639
got him for like five or six runs over five innings.

1094
00:57:58,679 --> 00:58:00,679
I'll have to go back and digging to that game

1095
00:58:00,719 --> 00:58:02,840
a little bit further. I'm sure that a couple of

1096
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:06,760
those balls left the ballpark. So TV you settled on

1097
00:58:07,239 --> 00:58:09,920
Dodgers first five money line for the parlay, Brian, can

1098
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,159
we get a price on that.

1099
00:58:11,679 --> 00:58:14,199
Speaker 1: Minus one eighty? We're eating a little bit of chalk today.

1100
00:58:15,679 --> 00:58:17,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's okay, I mean it's that's that's the thing

1101
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,239
like the three teamer makes it a little bit easier

1102
00:58:21,199 --> 00:58:23,599
to get action on some of these, you know, sides

1103
00:58:23,639 --> 00:58:26,000
that you might not necessarily want to lay it on.

1104
00:58:27,079 --> 00:58:28,559
What about the Yankees? What do you what do you

1105
00:58:28,599 --> 00:58:29,280
see in for a price?

1106
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:33,079
Speaker 1: Yankies were minus one thirty and my Detroit under team

1107
00:58:33,199 --> 00:58:34,760
total was minus one twenty five.

1108
00:58:35,519 --> 00:58:38,159
Speaker 2: All right, so let's run. So we are at the

1109
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:40,840
end of the show, pretty pretty thorough breakdown on all

1110
00:58:41,119 --> 00:58:43,360
all four games. I think we gave out a lot

1111
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:46,320
of info, probably more so for you to make your

1112
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,079
own decision if that's through oute you want to go,

1113
00:58:48,159 --> 00:58:51,119
if you want our place, Uh, give us give us

1114
00:58:51,119 --> 00:58:53,079
that promo code one more time, Brian.

1115
00:58:53,719 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, bases ninety nine. You'll get any any one of

1116
00:58:57,519 --> 00:58:59,880
us all the way through the World Series for all

1117
00:59:00,159 --> 00:59:03,760
ninety nine dollars, which was originally one forty nine. So

1118
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:08,760
that's that's a pretty good savings. And uh, we are

1119
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:11,599
putting out, as was mentioned earlier, all of our baseball

1120
00:59:11,639 --> 00:59:13,960
players the rest of the way will be for nine dollars,

1121
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:15,440
I believe, but.

1122
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:18,079
Speaker 3: Aside from.

1123
00:59:19,519 --> 00:59:22,519
Speaker 1: Thirty five, so any five percent we have, it's definitely.

1124
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:26,440
If we have one five percent, that's you. You're probably

1125
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,559
better off getting all the way through. But I'm sure

1126
00:59:29,599 --> 00:59:32,159
we'll have more than that, so we'll see how it goes.

1127
00:59:32,719 --> 00:59:34,920
It's good, good time to get our package for the

1128
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:35,679
rest of the time.

1129
00:59:36,239 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 3: And to mention today's five dollars Tuesdays, well, so we're

1130
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:43,440
all going to have a playout. I'm sure for these

1131
00:59:44,119 --> 00:59:47,559
MLB or Brian and Adam do football, so they might

1132
00:59:47,679 --> 00:59:50,519
have a football play but five dollars Tuesday today, and

1133
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:52,639
we all put free plays up too, So go to

1134
00:59:52,719 --> 00:59:55,800
wagertalk dot com and click the free plays page to see.

1135
00:59:55,639 --> 00:59:59,119
Speaker 2: What we got all right, before we sign off the

1136
00:59:59,199 --> 01:00:01,480
parlay one more time, Brian Leonard is gonna go with

1137
01:00:01,679 --> 01:00:04,840
Tigers under team total under three and a half in

1138
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:08,280
the early game. That's Tiger's team total under three and

1139
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:10,280
a half for the full game. I'm gonna go with

1140
01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:12,719
the Yankees on the money line for the full game. Tokyo.

1141
01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:16,880
Brandon is gonna go Dodgers first five money line. That

1142
01:00:17,039 --> 01:00:19,719
parlay plays plus three ninety five, and even with the

1143
01:00:20,559 --> 01:00:22,960
not hitting one last week, we are still ahead on

1144
01:00:23,079 --> 01:00:25,719
the season. On the parlay, hopefully we can bring that

1145
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:29,199
energy into the playoffs and cash a couple of these.

1146
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:31,760
As long as there's gonna be four games a day,

1147
01:00:32,039 --> 01:00:33,800
I think we can probably do a parlay. We may

1148
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:35,960
have to think of something else when we get later,

1149
01:00:36,159 --> 01:00:38,440
but this week, you know, at least the next two

1150
01:00:38,519 --> 01:00:41,440
days we'll get one out. And who said we couldn't

1151
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:45,119
do an hour show with only four games? We still

1152
01:00:45,159 --> 01:00:45,800
went over.

1153
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:48,440
Speaker 3: When we have Adam, we never have a problem.

1154
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:55,519
Speaker 2: Hey, you can do it by an Actually we.

1155
01:00:55,599 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 3: Probably all talked about the same today.

1156
01:00:58,199 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 2: Well, listen, we're making We're making package is on the

1157
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:02,519
coupon codes on the fly here. You know, I wasn't

1158
01:01:02,559 --> 01:01:07,440
expected we had plenty. But no, I'm glad the hour

1159
01:01:08,639 --> 01:01:10,840
we didn't even need to have, like you know, we

1160
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,280
didn't even need to have Tokyo Brandon like go into

1161
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:15,599
like story time or do like like turn it into

1162
01:01:15,639 --> 01:01:18,239
a talent show. We did our show. We got it

1163
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:22,800
was perfect. Yeah, So no, I'm fired up for tomorrow

1164
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:25,360
hopefully hopefully all these games split and then we've got

1165
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:29,360
four games on Thursday. Who knows, but yeah, it was

1166
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:33,519
a great show. Hopefully this, you know, is hopefully everyone

1167
01:01:34,159 --> 01:01:36,679
is ready to go for the first day of the

1168
01:01:36,719 --> 01:01:39,199
postseason and we'll be back tomorrow nine am to do

1169
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,519
it all over again. So have a great day everyone.

1170
01:01:42,199 --> 01:01:44,679
Basis ninety nine is the coupon code get you the

1171
01:01:44,719 --> 01:01:47,760
full playoffs for any of the three of us and

1172
01:01:48,199 --> 01:01:51,000
five dollars Tuesday. As always, we'll see you guys again

1173
01:01:51,039 --> 01:01:51,480
in the morning.