1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,919 Speaker 1: The seven biggest college football games this Saturday, October the eleventh, 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,879 Free now itss free picks coming up right here, right now, 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:10,640 Isa Steve merrillwager Talk dot Com. Right back here on 4 00:00:10,679 --> 00:00:13,080 wager Talk TV, and this is your weekly college football 5 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,800 Top twenty five report. But as always, I'm gonna dig 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:17,800 much deeper and give you some bonus games as well, 7 00:00:17,839 --> 00:00:20,679 So this is really a top forty report, the seven 8 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,079 biggest games in the country this Saturday, for Week seven, 9 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:25,960 I'm gonna go down and start time order. I'll give 10 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,079 you the three true headhead Top twenty five matchups and 11 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,160 four bonus games after that, and let's keep it rolling 12 00:00:31,199 --> 00:00:33,840 here at twelve New Eastern. Don't have to wait long 13 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,439 for a couple of these games. Number one ranked Ohio State, 14 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,359 the best team in the country, against number seventeen Illinois. 15 00:00:39,399 --> 00:00:41,439 And it's on the road though, just a second road 16 00:00:41,439 --> 00:00:44,399 game this season for Ohio State. By the way, this 17 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,799 on Fox National TV. Just saying, Julian Sayman has been 18 00:00:47,799 --> 00:00:50,119 playing pretty well this season. I was concerned about his 19 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,560 first start at Washington a couple of weeks ago, but 20 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,640 mayway one twenty four to six re clef. Keep in 21 00:00:55,719 --> 00:00:58,240 mind that was an early scoring, low scoring seven three 22 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,159 game in the first half. And Ralph Michaels I guest guests, 23 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,640 appeared on the Blitz with Brian Power and Ralph Michaels 24 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,359 on Thursday afternoon, and Ralph mentioned a way to play 25 00:01:07,359 --> 00:01:09,680 this game, which I think was pretty enticing, and that's 26 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,000 to play the first quarter under between these two squads. 27 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,159 I believe it's seven and a half. I look for 28 00:01:15,159 --> 00:01:17,120 both teams to be conservative coming out. I right Ohio 29 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:19,480 State as the best defense in the country, and we 30 00:01:19,519 --> 00:01:23,519 saw Illinois really struggle against Indiana, the one team they 31 00:01:23,519 --> 00:01:25,640 stepped up against a couple of weeks ago. They had 32 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,439 only two rushing yards and only one hundred and sixty 33 00:01:28,439 --> 00:01:30,079 one total yards. I think they're going to struggle to 34 00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:32,280 move the ball here. The concern though, is they gave 35 00:01:32,359 --> 00:01:34,439 up over five hundred and seventy yards and sixty three 36 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,680 points to Indiana. So if you're going to play the 37 00:01:36,719 --> 00:01:38,480 undur he probably want to do it sooner than later 38 00:01:38,519 --> 00:01:40,319 in this game, and I think the first quarter under 39 00:01:40,359 --> 00:01:42,400 makes sense. Is they'll probably not take a lot of chances. 40 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,280 With Julian Saying making just his second road start of 41 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,799 his career. By the way, my ten thousand game simulation 42 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,719 as Ohio State by thirteen point eight by fourteen points 43 00:01:50,719 --> 00:01:53,159 in this game, which is right on the current point 44 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,760 spread of fourteen. If you're going to play the side 45 00:01:55,799 --> 00:01:58,439 I would rather lay it. I just don't trust Illinois. 46 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,640 They got dominated by Indiana. I think Ohio State is 47 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,120 the best team in the country right now. At fourteen 48 00:02:03,239 --> 00:02:05,519 or less, which is the current number, I would lay it. 49 00:02:05,519 --> 00:02:07,280 If you're going to play it with Ohio State, That's 50 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:08,879 the only side I'd prefer in this game. But I 51 00:02:08,879 --> 00:02:11,360 do agree with Ralph. I think that under first quarter 52 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,400 is a sneaky way to maybe play a slow start 53 00:02:13,599 --> 00:02:15,759 in this game. That's a twelve New Eastern also an 54 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,360 early kickoff. These teams are off in a little sluggish 55 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,439 for those early kickoffs as well. Another early kickoff on 56 00:02:21,479 --> 00:02:24,759 ABC at Neon Eastern number eight Alabama at number fourteen 57 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,719 Missouri definitely one of the best games this week if 58 00:02:27,719 --> 00:02:29,919 Missouri is for real, and we'll find out because they 59 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,360 haven't really played anybody. A much weaker schedule than Bama, 60 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,719 but boys, the situational set up good for Missouri in 61 00:02:35,759 --> 00:02:38,560 this one. Coming off the bye week easy game against 62 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,879 UMass the week before that, it's almost like a double buy. 63 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,719 And then Alabama meanwhile, was in a tough scheduling spot 64 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,719 the huge underdog win at Georgia and then the letdown 65 00:02:46,759 --> 00:02:49,000 after the Vanderbilt win. While it's possible because keep in 66 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,159 mind that was a big revenge game for Alabama last 67 00:02:51,199 --> 00:02:53,479 week after losing. Is a twenty three point road favorite 68 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,840 at Vanderbilt last year. So scheduling spot definitely favors Missouri, 69 00:02:57,879 --> 00:03:01,039 and they are a live dog defensively, giving up just 70 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,639 fourteen and a half points a game this season, and 71 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,439 yards per play, they're only giving up three point nine 72 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,639 yards per play. Problem is, there's no line value here. 73 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,439 The whole situational setup has been priced in because my 74 00:03:12,479 --> 00:03:17,039 ten thousand game simulation favors Alabama by five. This line 75 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,360 open four and a half. It's now down to three. 76 00:03:19,479 --> 00:03:22,520 So while the situational setup you can make some arguments 77 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,879 from Missouri, I do still think Alabama is the better 78 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,000 team and the line is too short. Once again, I 79 00:03:28,039 --> 00:03:30,719 favor Bbama by five. The current line is just minus three, 80 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,280 So I'm gonna look at the total instead here and 81 00:03:33,319 --> 00:03:35,360 I would lean under the fifty one and a half 82 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,400 fifty two fifty one is a very key number, about 83 00:03:38,439 --> 00:03:41,120 a three percent chance the game lands exactly on fifty one, 84 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,240 So as long as it stays fifty one and a 85 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,680 half fifty two, which is the current total. I do 86 00:03:45,719 --> 00:03:47,599 think the under has some value in this game because 87 00:03:47,599 --> 00:03:50,800 I mentioned how strong that Missouri defense has been this year. 88 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,319 They've been very balanced, strong against both the run and 89 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,240 the pass. Well, the Alabama defense has been pretty strong 90 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,680 as well, getting up just sixteen points a game and 91 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,560 just five point three yards for play. I looked for 92 00:04:01,599 --> 00:04:03,879 maybe a lower scoring game than expected, and once again, 93 00:04:03,919 --> 00:04:06,199 maybe the first half or first quarter under these high 94 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,560 profile games. We saw that Oregon Penn State game a 95 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,719 few weeks ago three to three, late in the first half. 96 00:04:11,479 --> 00:04:13,360 Once again, maybe look at the under in the first 97 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,520 quarter or first half as well. But I would lean 98 00:04:15,599 --> 00:04:17,759 under games pretty much on my ratings here, I can 99 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,800 make it argument for both sides. The line Valley favors 100 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,560 Band of the situation, though favors Missouri. That it's at 101 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,680 twelve neon Eastern on ABC. All right, your other two 102 00:04:25,759 --> 00:04:27,879 top twenty five matchup is the best game of the week, 103 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,319 A top seven matchup Number seven Indiana at number three 104 00:04:31,399 --> 00:04:36,600 Oregon three point thirty eastern Saturday afternoon on CBS National TV, 105 00:04:36,639 --> 00:04:39,879 and I mentioned earlier how impressive Indiana looked in that 106 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,519 step up game against Illinois, a top twenty five matchup 107 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,199 a couple of weeks ago, sixty three to ten. They 108 00:04:45,199 --> 00:04:47,319 were somewhat held in check last week by what's usually 109 00:04:47,319 --> 00:04:50,240 a pretty good IWAD defense, a lackluster twenty to fifteen 110 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,879 win or two weeks ago rather, but then they had 111 00:04:52,879 --> 00:04:54,720 the bye last week, so it's a nice setup for 112 00:04:54,759 --> 00:04:57,600 them in that regard. Oregon also had the bye after 113 00:04:57,639 --> 00:04:59,879 the big Penn State win, so the bye came in 114 00:05:00,079 --> 00:05:02,480 good time, I think for both of these squads. And 115 00:05:02,519 --> 00:05:04,920 this one once again pretty much right on my ratings. 116 00:05:05,319 --> 00:05:08,000 As the line opened at nine and a half, it's 117 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,079 been bet down. We have seen some sharp money come 118 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:12,519 in on the Indiana Hoosiers. It's now down to that 119 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,720 key number of seven and lo and behold, my ten 120 00:05:15,759 --> 00:05:19,240 thousand game simulation favors Oregon by eight and a half points, 121 00:05:19,319 --> 00:05:20,920 right in the middle of the opening line in the 122 00:05:20,959 --> 00:05:22,800 current line, so I think the number is pretty much 123 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,839 where it should be. I'm once again going to look 124 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,360 at the total instead to find some value, and I 125 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,639 like the over fifty five in this game. Mention how 126 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,519 explosive that Indiana offense was putting up sixty three points. Well, 127 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:35,439 keep in mind they put up seventy three and fifty 128 00:05:35,439 --> 00:05:37,920 six points to two weeks before that. Yes, they did 129 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,759 struggle to run the ball against Iowa a couple games 130 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,600 a couple of weeks ago in their last game, but 131 00:05:42,639 --> 00:05:44,480 I look forward to get back on track in this one. 132 00:05:44,519 --> 00:05:47,399 Both teams are excellent defensive teams. In fact, in my 133 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:49,800 Power ratings right now, I rank them both top seven 134 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,800 offenses and top seven defenses. That's how good they are. 135 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,120 But one thing I've noticed in recent years. When I 136 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,360 started in the nineties twenty nine years ago August of 137 00:05:57,439 --> 00:05:59,839 ninety six, as you know, it was always good defenses, 138 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:03,240 good offenses in most sports, even in the early two thousands. 139 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,920 But one thing that's changed with these explosive, pass heavy 140 00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:09,600 offenses is that good offenses now beat good defenses. And 141 00:06:09,639 --> 00:06:11,399 it's a sneaky way to play overs. And I think 142 00:06:11,399 --> 00:06:14,000 that works here two top ten offenses and defenses. I'd 143 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,160 rather have points, and in this one we get a 144 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,399 very reasonable total at fifty five. I think the sides 145 00:06:19,439 --> 00:06:21,240 price pretty much where it should be. But once again 146 00:06:21,439 --> 00:06:24,680 total maybe a little low. Indiana and Oregon up and 147 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,079 over the fifty five points. You've got an Oregon offense 148 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,720 averaging forty seven points a game, Indiana averaging forty eight 149 00:06:30,759 --> 00:06:33,360 points a game. These are two good defensive teams. I 150 00:06:33,399 --> 00:06:35,959 think both offenses are still better at three thirty Eastern 151 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,600 on CBS. Are those your three true top twenty five 152 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,000 matchups for this Saturday, October the eleventh, But I want 153 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,279 to go deeper. There's four more games in which we 154 00:06:45,319 --> 00:06:48,240 have ranked versus unranked, but teams that are getting additional votes. 155 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,600 I use the ap pole. So all these teams are 156 00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:53,199 still getting some additional votes. Are all top forty ish, 157 00:06:53,519 --> 00:06:55,079 if you will. And if some of these teams pull 158 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,879 the upset, although some are favored, actually we'll talk about 159 00:06:57,879 --> 00:07:00,000 that in a moment. But once goin at the lower 160 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,319 unranked team, I should say wins, they might be ranked 161 00:07:02,319 --> 00:07:04,800 next week. Let's talk about a really big game. And 162 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,279 how crazy is this that Texas is actually not ranked anymore. 163 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,000 They were the preseason number one team over a month ago, 164 00:07:11,079 --> 00:07:12,639 just over a month ago, they were the number one 165 00:07:12,639 --> 00:07:15,519 team in the country, and they're not top twenty five anymore. 166 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,240 Texas is on the outside looking in after that lost 167 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,959 to Florida last week. They're now twenty seventh, and I 168 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,240 say that because their second most edition, they're getting the 169 00:07:23,279 --> 00:07:27,240 second most additional votes, So they're twenty seventh. Oklahoma number six, 170 00:07:27,879 --> 00:07:31,240 Red rival Red River Rivalry. Can't don't you dare call 171 00:07:31,279 --> 00:07:33,399 it to shootout. Can't do that. No more, no, no, no, 172 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,120 it's the triple arm, the Red River Rivalry. I think 173 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,959 that's still okay to say, Hey, three third Eastern ABC, 174 00:07:40,439 --> 00:07:44,120 number six Oklahoma unranked but number twenty seven ish Texas, 175 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:45,839 and this should be a great game. A lot of 176 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,079 uncertainty though, which makes it hard to handicap as I'm 177 00:07:48,079 --> 00:07:50,480 doing this video on Thursday evening, because we don't know 178 00:07:50,519 --> 00:07:53,399 the quarterback situation for the Heisman favored a couple of 179 00:07:53,399 --> 00:07:55,959 weeks co a Tier who's now been out, chance he 180 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,480 might return, line's been kind of jumping around. You really 181 00:07:59,519 --> 00:08:01,079 An'll have to keep an eye on this to see 182 00:08:01,079 --> 00:08:03,800 what happens. So the side in this game, by the way, 183 00:08:03,839 --> 00:08:06,720 I favor Oklahoma by about half a point. My simulation 184 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,759 favors Oklahoma by half a point. Currently as a Thursday afternoon, 185 00:08:11,399 --> 00:08:13,480 Oklahoma is a slight dog in this game, about a 186 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,759 one point dog. So here is one of those unranked 187 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,040 favorites against a ranked team. Line by the way open three, 188 00:08:19,079 --> 00:08:21,279 the fact that material might return now it's down to 189 00:08:21,319 --> 00:08:23,639 one pick them. We'll keep an eye on it. The 190 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,079 total's also risen because of that, from forty two and 191 00:08:26,079 --> 00:08:28,120 a half up to forty three forty three and a half. 192 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,160 Regardless of the situation, I'd like it better. Backup Hawkins 193 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,159 is under center silver Oklahoma. He's a weaker quarterback, but 194 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,399 either way, I think the under does have some value 195 00:08:36,399 --> 00:08:38,840 in this game for a few reasons. First of all, 196 00:08:38,879 --> 00:08:41,799 two really good defensive teams. The reason Texas is not 197 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:43,919 top twenty five anymore is the offense is struggling. They're 198 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:45,919 not even a top fifty offense for me right now, 199 00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:47,720 and arch Manning has proven to maybe be a little 200 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,559 bit overrated, but the defense is for real. I rank 201 00:08:50,639 --> 00:08:53,840 both of these defensive teams top four, number two and 202 00:08:53,919 --> 00:08:57,279 number four in my rankings. Neither and Oklahoma's not even 203 00:08:57,279 --> 00:08:59,480 top twenty offense, so both teams are outside the top 204 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,519 twenty and all five Texas's case outside the top fifty, 205 00:09:02,799 --> 00:09:05,960 but both are top five defensive teams, so regardless of 206 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:07,879 the quarterback situation, if you're going to play the total. 207 00:09:07,879 --> 00:09:10,200 I like the under forty three and a half between 208 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,440 Oklahoma and Texas at three thirty eastern, and that game, 209 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,720 once again is on what is it ABC? National TV? 210 00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:20,080 All right, three more bonus games for you, and this 211 00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:23,399 is a good one at seven thirty eastern Saturday night 212 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,399 on NBC number fifteen. Michigan going to number thirty one 213 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,559 ranked USC. USC once again sixth in the additional votes, 214 00:09:29,799 --> 00:09:31,320 so they'd come in at thirty first, and if they 215 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,600 win this game, they might be ranked next week. And 216 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,279 I think they do win this game. The odds makers 217 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,320 are saying it as well. Here are another unranked favorite. 218 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,399 I love these bonus games where we get unranked favorites. 219 00:09:40,399 --> 00:09:43,279 It's almost a fade the public scenario. And not only 220 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,240 does that work here, but we also get line value. 221 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,120 My ten thousand game simulation favors USC on average by 222 00:09:48,159 --> 00:09:51,200 six points in this game over Michigan. And that's because 223 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,840 I rank them right now as the number one offensive 224 00:09:53,919 --> 00:09:56,720 unit in the country. They're that explosive. On the season. 225 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,720 They're averaging forty eight and a half points a game, 226 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,159 and at home this year incredible fifty nine points a game. 227 00:10:02,879 --> 00:10:05,039 USC on the season throws the ball about thirty one 228 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,240 times a game, and they're averaging eleven yards per pass attempt, 229 00:10:08,279 --> 00:10:11,279 not completion per attempt machines. Every time they drop back 230 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,120 to throw on average, they're getting a first down this year. Yes, 231 00:10:14,159 --> 00:10:16,559 Michigan is a very good defensive team. They've held swats 232 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,159 just sixteen points a game this season, but they have 233 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,320 faced nothing like this USC attack. And then on top 234 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,399 of that, USC is coming off of bye week, so 235 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,639 it's a favorable scheduling spot as well. Line value, good 236 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,720 scheduling set up here. I like the unranked favorite in 237 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,440 this one, USC minus two and a half and play 238 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,279 it sooner than later, because three is such a key number, 239 00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:37,399 about an eight to nine percent chance USC wins by 240 00:10:37,399 --> 00:10:39,559 exactly a field goal. So you want to lock in 241 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,080 that two and a half and don't risk it going 242 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,080 to three. If you like Michigan, you wait. But I 243 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,000 prefer USC in this game minus the two and a 244 00:10:45,039 --> 00:10:49,039 half at seven third Eastern Saturday night on NBC. All right, 245 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,679 another game here at ten to fifteen, a late night 246 00:10:51,759 --> 00:10:55,840 game for you on ESPN. Arizona State and Utah Arizona 247 00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:57,679 State coming in is number twenty one in the country, 248 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,200 and here again we have an unranked favorite. All three 249 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,039 of these games have a very similar theme and that's 250 00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:04,080 why I wanted to bring them as bonus games for you. 251 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,799 Here in my top twenty five report, Utah coming in 252 00:11:06,799 --> 00:11:09,639 with the fourth most additional votes, which means they're technically 253 00:11:09,639 --> 00:11:12,039 twenty ninth right now, and if they win this game, 254 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,320 as I think they will, they'll be ranked next week 255 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:16,759 in Arizona State most likely will be unranked. So we've 256 00:11:16,799 --> 00:11:19,039 got number twenty one Arizona State at number twenty nine, 257 00:11:19,159 --> 00:11:23,240 Utah ten to fifteen Eastern on ESPN National TV. And 258 00:11:23,279 --> 00:11:27,000 as I check the Odds Logic Live odd screen, we'll 259 00:11:27,039 --> 00:11:29,200 see that Utah is a substantial favorite in this one, 260 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,879 even though they're coming in unranked. But I'm not sure 261 00:11:31,879 --> 00:11:34,559 the line is high enough. In fact, my game simulation 262 00:11:35,039 --> 00:11:37,240 favors Utah by over ten points in this game, and 263 00:11:37,279 --> 00:11:40,159 the current line is Utah minus five and a half six. 264 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,039 It's six in some spots, it's dropped to five and 265 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,600 a half in others, so yes, there is line value 266 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,240 with the uts is I have over a ten point 267 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,720 win on average here and the difference in this game. 268 00:11:48,759 --> 00:11:52,399 Both teams are top fortyish offenses. Utah is a top 269 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,039 ten defense. I rate them as the definite stronger defensive 270 00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:56,919 team in this game, and I think that'll be the 271 00:11:56,919 --> 00:11:59,080 difference in this one. By the way, both teams have 272 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,360 been very mediocre rowing the ball. Arizona say six point 273 00:12:02,399 --> 00:12:05,360 six yards per pass against teams that allow six point eight, 274 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,200 Utah seven against teams that allow seven. So both pass 275 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,600 defenses hold substantial edges here, and both teams get over 276 00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:14,759 half their rushing yards i'm sorry, over half their offensive 277 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,399 yards by rushing the ball. Both teams run for over 278 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,000 fifty percent of their total yards, so I think that'll 279 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,080 help the under in this game keep the clock moving. 280 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,159 When you don't have explosive offenses throwing the ball less 281 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,679 big plays, it's unlikely their running back is going to 282 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,440 break a sixty yard touchdown run against two good run defenses. 283 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,799 So I also like the under forty eight in this game. 284 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,600 I lean Utah minus five and a half based online value, 285 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,080 and also under forty eight in this game between two 286 00:12:38,159 --> 00:12:40,279 teams that don't throw the ball that well, that's your 287 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,240 late game ten to fifteen Eastern Saturday night on ESPN. 288 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:46,759 Now there's one other bonus game. Let's get to lucky 289 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:48,879 seven here. I'm going to give you one bonus game, 290 00:12:48,879 --> 00:12:51,440 and this one's really reaching because this team is getting 291 00:12:51,519 --> 00:12:54,559 one additional vote, dead last in the additional votes, which 292 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,600 means they be thirty ninth and that's all burned against 293 00:12:56,639 --> 00:12:59,679 number ten Georgia. So it's number ten Georgia at number 294 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,440 thirty nine Auburn because they're getting one additional vote, the 295 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,399 only team getting an additional vote, just getting won the 296 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,799 last one of the eight people at seven thirty Eastern 297 00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:08,480 on ABC. But I wanted to point this game out 298 00:13:08,519 --> 00:13:11,200 because I do think Auburn is a live dog in 299 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,720 this one. Now, will they be ranked next week if 300 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,360 they pull the upset? Perhaps. I don't know if they'll 301 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,720 go from one additional vote to enough to be a 302 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,240 top twenty five rather, but I do think this game 303 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:22,840 is going to be tight. First of all, my ten 304 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,120 thousand game simulation favors Georgia by just one point on average. 305 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,679 Currently they're about a three and a half point favorite, 306 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:31,720 So I do think there's some line value with Auburn, 307 00:13:31,759 --> 00:13:34,720 and I know they've looked ugly offensively the last couple games. 308 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,399 They put up only seventeen at Oklahoma, only ten at 309 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:38,679 Texas A and M. But those are two of the 310 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,440 best defensive teams in the country on the road, and 311 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:43,639 now they're coming off a bye week. Really like to 312 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,200 set up here for Auburn a little bit of a 313 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,320 hold your nose ugly underdog, and the Betty markets aren't 314 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,840 respecting him at three and a half. And Georgia has 315 00:13:51,039 --> 00:13:53,919 been suspect this year. They played tough against Alabama, actually 316 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,559 ran for two hundred and twenty seven yards, but the 317 00:13:57,399 --> 00:13:59,879 Auburn rush defense, when he factor in the opponent's played 318 00:13:59,879 --> 00:14:02,159 as really been strong this season. They're giving up just 319 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,639 eighty eight rushing yards just two point six yards per 320 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,159 carry against the teams at average four point four yards 321 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,960 per rush. Georgia only averages four point nine. Auburn allowing 322 00:14:11,039 --> 00:14:13,600 just sixteen points a game against teams that average twenty 323 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,639 nine points a game. They have faced a really tough schedule, 324 00:14:16,879 --> 00:14:19,399 especially the last two weeks, and I think because of 325 00:14:19,399 --> 00:14:21,320 that they're a little underrated. Now. I would lean towards 326 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:22,919 Auburn at plus three and a half or more a 327 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,320 key number, as I favored Georgia by just won in 328 00:14:25,399 --> 00:14:27,159 this game another bonus game I wanted to give you 329 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,360 here in the Top forty report this week for Saturday, 330 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,320 October the eleventh. Whoo, there you go, the seven biggest 331 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,080 college football games for this Saturday, Week seven. What are 332 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,120 your thoughts on these games? Which sides or totals do 333 00:14:38,159 --> 00:14:40,679 you agree or disagree with? What other games do you like? Hey? 334 00:14:40,759 --> 00:14:42,279 Some under the radar games? You know? I had two 335 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,240 easy best bet winners last week on big favorites from 336 00:14:45,279 --> 00:14:48,320 the small colleges. So once again the mid majors, if 337 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,559 you will, the Group of five whatever they're calling them. 338 00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:52,440 So yes, I'm giving you all the big games here, 339 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:53,960 but we do dive a little bit deeper and have 340 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,879 some under the radar best bets as well. Which games 341 00:14:55,879 --> 00:14:57,639 are you looking at this Saturday? Drop them in the 342 00:14:57,639 --> 00:15:00,360 comments below. He include some analysis. If you have time, 343 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,120 let's learn and earn and win together here on wager 344 00:15:03,159 --> 00:15:05,399 Talk TV. And if you're liking these free play videos, 345 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,559 all I ask is a thumbs up, like it takes 346 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:09,720 two seconds to click that thumbs up, like while you're 347 00:15:09,759 --> 00:15:12,240 watching and listening and boom. I will keep these coming 348 00:15:12,279 --> 00:15:15,120 each and every week. Include my NFL Fade the public video, 349 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,960 which will be up this weekend as well. Also subscribe 350 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,120 to wager Talk TV. It's free, don't call it nothing. 351 00:15:21,159 --> 00:15:23,879 Over two hundred and twenty three thousand subscribers and climbing. 352 00:15:24,399 --> 00:15:26,440 Just click subscribe and click the bell as well for 353 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,919 an instant alert so you never miss out when these 354 00:15:28,919 --> 00:15:31,039 free play videos are posted each day here on the channel. 355 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:32,919 By the way, speaking of free plays, I've got an 356 00:15:32,919 --> 00:15:35,480 advanced NFL free play for Sunday morning on my page 357 00:15:35,519 --> 00:15:37,799 right now, free for everybody at wager talk dot com. 358 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,639 Steve Merrill wager talk dot com. And while you're there, 359 00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:43,799 check out some incredible best bet specials for this weekend 360 00:15:43,919 --> 00:15:46,759 as well. All Sports All Access, which means you get 361 00:15:46,759 --> 00:15:49,759 college and pro basketball, college and pro football, and Major 362 00:15:49,799 --> 00:15:51,600 League Baseball. Now, if you do the seven days SAMP 363 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,600 where you're going to get baseball and football. But if 364 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,559 you do one of the bigger packages, the NBA starts 365 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,759 in less than two weeks college hoops right after that. 366 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,679 And I bring that up because these are three all 367 00:15:59,679 --> 00:16:02,840 sports all access offers we have right now on my page. 368 00:16:02,879 --> 00:16:05,679 Seven days for seventy seven that's eleven dollars a day, 369 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,120 buy three months, get the fourth month for free. 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If I have a best bet that 381 00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:39,200 I'm using personally, my clients get it. So it doesn't 382 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:40,679 matter if you're a one day, a one week, a 383 00:16:40,679 --> 00:16:42,879 one month, or a one year subscriber. Everybody who's getting 384 00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:44,639 the same plays and I'm using each and every day 385 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,200 with detailed analysis, same games I've won consistently with for 386 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,559 the past twenty nine years, since I started in August 387 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,000 of ninety six. Now, if you want a one week 388 00:16:53,039 --> 00:16:54,879 sampler at seventy seven, if you want the three months, 389 00:16:54,879 --> 00:16:56,240 you get the fourth month free. If you want the 390 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:57,720 one year, you get the rest of this year free 391 00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:59,720 and all of next year. That's like a fourteen and 392 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,559 a half month package. Go there right now, figure out 393 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,519 which one works best for you. Check out the previous 394 00:17:04,599 --> 00:17:06,440 best bets. There recap to the bottom of my page 395 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,039 each and every day a rolling recap for the last 396 00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:10,119 twenty best bets that I've given my clients. You can 397 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,279 click on them also to read the analysis to see 398 00:17:12,279 --> 00:17:14,599 how I do things. And don't forget about that bonus 399 00:17:14,599 --> 00:17:16,119 free play. I try to put one up every day 400 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,160 for you, including an advanced NFL Sunday play right now 401 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,680 with analysis Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com and hey, 402 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:27,440 get there quicker with SHORTCUTWT dot buzz slash s M 403 00:17:28,599 --> 00:17:30,240 on the way out. Don't forget to follow me on 404 00:17:30,279 --> 00:17:32,960 social media at Steve Merrill two R S one, l 405 00:17:33,519 --> 00:17:36,720 M E r R I L at Steve Merril X 406 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,640 and Instagram. And stay tunear to wager Talk TV because 407 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,920 you know there's more free play videos coming up next