Speaker 1: The seven biggest college football games this Saturday, October the eleventh,
Free now itss free picks coming up right here, right now,
Isa Steve merrillwager Talk dot Com. Right back here on
wager Talk TV, and this is your weekly college football
Top twenty five report. But as always, I'm gonna dig
much deeper and give you some bonus games as well,
So this is really a top forty report, the seven
biggest games in the country this Saturday, for Week seven,
I'm gonna go down and start time order. I'll give
you the three true headhead Top twenty five matchups and
four bonus games after that, and let's keep it rolling
here at twelve New Eastern. Don't have to wait long
for a couple of these games. Number one ranked Ohio State,
the best team in the country, against number seventeen Illinois.
And it's on the road though, just a second road
game this season for Ohio State. By the way, this
on Fox National TV. Just saying, Julian Sayman has been
playing pretty well this season. I was concerned about his
first start at Washington a couple of weeks ago, but
mayway one twenty four to six re clef. Keep in
mind that was an early scoring, low scoring seven three
game in the first half. And Ralph Michaels I guest guests,
appeared on the Blitz with Brian Power and Ralph Michaels
on Thursday afternoon, and Ralph mentioned a way to play
this game, which I think was pretty enticing, and that's
to play the first quarter under between these two squads.
I believe it's seven and a half. I look for
both teams to be conservative coming out. I right Ohio
State as the best defense in the country, and we
saw Illinois really struggle against Indiana, the one team they
stepped up against a couple of weeks ago. They had
only two rushing yards and only one hundred and sixty
one total yards. I think they're going to struggle to
move the ball here. The concern though, is they gave
up over five hundred and seventy yards and sixty three
points to Indiana. So if you're going to play the
undur he probably want to do it sooner than later
in this game, and I think the first quarter under
makes sense. Is they'll probably not take a lot of chances.
With Julian Saying making just his second road start of
his career. By the way, my ten thousand game simulation
as Ohio State by thirteen point eight by fourteen points
in this game, which is right on the current point
spread of fourteen. If you're going to play the side
I would rather lay it. I just don't trust Illinois.
They got dominated by Indiana. I think Ohio State is
the best team in the country right now. At fourteen
or less, which is the current number, I would lay it.
If you're going to play it with Ohio State, That's
the only side I'd prefer in this game. But I
do agree with Ralph. I think that under first quarter
is a sneaky way to maybe play a slow start
in this game. That's a twelve New Eastern also an
early kickoff. These teams are off in a little sluggish
for those early kickoffs as well. Another early kickoff on
ABC at Neon Eastern number eight Alabama at number fourteen
Missouri definitely one of the best games this week if
Missouri is for real, and we'll find out because they
haven't really played anybody. A much weaker schedule than Bama,
but boys, the situational set up good for Missouri in
this one. Coming off the bye week easy game against
UMass the week before that, it's almost like a double buy.
And then Alabama meanwhile, was in a tough scheduling spot
the huge underdog win at Georgia and then the letdown
after the Vanderbilt win. While it's possible because keep in
mind that was a big revenge game for Alabama last
week after losing. Is a twenty three point road favorite
at Vanderbilt last year. So scheduling spot definitely favors Missouri,
and they are a live dog defensively, giving up just
fourteen and a half points a game this season, and
yards per play, they're only giving up three point nine
yards per play. Problem is, there's no line value here.
The whole situational setup has been priced in because my
ten thousand game simulation favors Alabama by five. This line
open four and a half. It's now down to three.
So while the situational setup you can make some arguments
from Missouri, I do still think Alabama is the better
team and the line is too short. Once again, I
favor Bbama by five. The current line is just minus three,
So I'm gonna look at the total instead here and
I would lean under the fifty one and a half
fifty two fifty one is a very key number, about
a three percent chance the game lands exactly on fifty one,
So as long as it stays fifty one and a
half fifty two, which is the current total. I do
think the under has some value in this game because
I mentioned how strong that Missouri defense has been this year.
They've been very balanced, strong against both the run and
the pass. Well, the Alabama defense has been pretty strong
as well, getting up just sixteen points a game and
just five point three yards for play. I looked for
maybe a lower scoring game than expected, and once again,
maybe the first half or first quarter under these high
profile games. We saw that Oregon Penn State game a
few weeks ago three to three, late in the first half.
Once again, maybe look at the under in the first
quarter or first half as well. But I would lean
under games pretty much on my ratings here, I can
make it argument for both sides. The line Valley favors
Band of the situation, though favors Missouri. That it's at
twelve neon Eastern on ABC. All right, your other two
top twenty five matchup is the best game of the week,
A top seven matchup Number seven Indiana at number three
Oregon three point thirty eastern Saturday afternoon on CBS National TV,
and I mentioned earlier how impressive Indiana looked in that
step up game against Illinois, a top twenty five matchup
a couple of weeks ago, sixty three to ten. They
were somewhat held in check last week by what's usually
a pretty good IWAD defense, a lackluster twenty to fifteen
win or two weeks ago rather, but then they had
the bye last week, so it's a nice setup for
them in that regard. Oregon also had the bye after
the big Penn State win, so the bye came in
good time, I think for both of these squads. And
this one once again pretty much right on my ratings.
As the line opened at nine and a half, it's
been bet down. We have seen some sharp money come
in on the Indiana Hoosiers. It's now down to that
key number of seven and lo and behold, my ten
thousand game simulation favors Oregon by eight and a half points,
right in the middle of the opening line in the
current line, so I think the number is pretty much
where it should be. I'm once again going to look
at the total instead to find some value, and I
like the over fifty five in this game. Mention how
explosive that Indiana offense was putting up sixty three points. Well,
keep in mind they put up seventy three and fifty
six points to two weeks before that. Yes, they did
struggle to run the ball against Iowa a couple games
a couple of weeks ago in their last game, but
I look forward to get back on track in this one.
Both teams are excellent defensive teams. In fact, in my
Power ratings right now, I rank them both top seven
offenses and top seven defenses. That's how good they are.
But one thing I've noticed in recent years. When I
started in the nineties twenty nine years ago August of
ninety six, as you know, it was always good defenses,
good offenses in most sports, even in the early two thousands.
But one thing that's changed with these explosive, pass heavy
offenses is that good offenses now beat good defenses. And
it's a sneaky way to play overs. And I think
that works here two top ten offenses and defenses. I'd
rather have points, and in this one we get a
very reasonable total at fifty five. I think the sides
price pretty much where it should be. But once again
total maybe a little low. Indiana and Oregon up and
over the fifty five points. You've got an Oregon offense
averaging forty seven points a game, Indiana averaging forty eight
points a game. These are two good defensive teams. I
think both offenses are still better at three thirty Eastern
on CBS. Are those your three true top twenty five
matchups for this Saturday, October the eleventh, But I want
to go deeper. There's four more games in which we
have ranked versus unranked, but teams that are getting additional votes.
I use the ap pole. So all these teams are
still getting some additional votes. Are all top forty ish,
if you will. And if some of these teams pull
the upset, although some are favored, actually we'll talk about
that in a moment. But once goin at the lower
unranked team, I should say wins, they might be ranked
next week. Let's talk about a really big game. And
how crazy is this that Texas is actually not ranked anymore.
They were the preseason number one team over a month ago,
just over a month ago, they were the number one
team in the country, and they're not top twenty five anymore.
Texas is on the outside looking in after that lost
to Florida last week. They're now twenty seventh, and I
say that because their second most edition, they're getting the
second most additional votes, So they're twenty seventh. Oklahoma number six,
Red rival Red River Rivalry. Can't don't you dare call
it to shootout. Can't do that. No more, no, no, no,
it's the triple arm, the Red River Rivalry. I think
that's still okay to say, Hey, three third Eastern ABC,
number six Oklahoma unranked but number twenty seven ish Texas,
and this should be a great game. A lot of
uncertainty though, which makes it hard to handicap as I'm
doing this video on Thursday evening, because we don't know
the quarterback situation for the Heisman favored a couple of
weeks co a Tier who's now been out, chance he
might return, line's been kind of jumping around. You really
An'll have to keep an eye on this to see
what happens. So the side in this game, by the way,
I favor Oklahoma by about half a point. My simulation
favors Oklahoma by half a point. Currently as a Thursday afternoon,
Oklahoma is a slight dog in this game, about a
one point dog. So here is one of those unranked
favorites against a ranked team. Line by the way open three,
the fact that material might return now it's down to
one pick them. We'll keep an eye on it. The
total's also risen because of that, from forty two and
a half up to forty three forty three and a half.
Regardless of the situation, I'd like it better. Backup Hawkins
is under center silver Oklahoma. He's a weaker quarterback, but
either way, I think the under does have some value
in this game for a few reasons. First of all,
two really good defensive teams. The reason Texas is not
top twenty five anymore is the offense is struggling. They're
not even a top fifty offense for me right now,
and arch Manning has proven to maybe be a little
bit overrated, but the defense is for real. I rank
both of these defensive teams top four, number two and
number four in my rankings. Neither and Oklahoma's not even
top twenty offense, so both teams are outside the top
twenty and all five Texas's case outside the top fifty,
but both are top five defensive teams, so regardless of
the quarterback situation, if you're going to play the total.
I like the under forty three and a half between
Oklahoma and Texas at three thirty eastern, and that game,
once again is on what is it ABC? National TV?
All right, three more bonus games for you, and this
is a good one at seven thirty eastern Saturday night
on NBC number fifteen. Michigan going to number thirty one
ranked USC. USC once again sixth in the additional votes,
so they'd come in at thirty first, and if they
win this game, they might be ranked next week. And
I think they do win this game. The odds makers
are saying it as well. Here are another unranked favorite.
I love these bonus games where we get unranked favorites.
It's almost a fade the public scenario. And not only
does that work here, but we also get line value.
My ten thousand game simulation favors USC on average by
six points in this game over Michigan. And that's because
I rank them right now as the number one offensive
unit in the country. They're that explosive. On the season.
They're averaging forty eight and a half points a game,
and at home this year incredible fifty nine points a game.
USC on the season throws the ball about thirty one
times a game, and they're averaging eleven yards per pass attempt,
not completion per attempt machines. Every time they drop back
to throw on average, they're getting a first down this year. Yes,
Michigan is a very good defensive team. They've held swats
just sixteen points a game this season, but they have
faced nothing like this USC attack. And then on top
of that, USC is coming off of bye week, so
it's a favorable scheduling spot as well. Line value, good
scheduling set up here. I like the unranked favorite in
this one, USC minus two and a half and play
it sooner than later, because three is such a key number,
about an eight to nine percent chance USC wins by
exactly a field goal. So you want to lock in
that two and a half and don't risk it going
to three. If you like Michigan, you wait. But I
prefer USC in this game minus the two and a
half at seven third Eastern Saturday night on NBC. All right,
another game here at ten to fifteen, a late night
game for you on ESPN. Arizona State and Utah Arizona
State coming in is number twenty one in the country,
and here again we have an unranked favorite. All three
of these games have a very similar theme and that's
why I wanted to bring them as bonus games for you.
Here in my top twenty five report, Utah coming in
with the fourth most additional votes, which means they're technically
twenty ninth right now, and if they win this game,
as I think they will, they'll be ranked next week
in Arizona State most likely will be unranked. So we've
got number twenty one Arizona State at number twenty nine,
Utah ten to fifteen Eastern on ESPN National TV. And
as I check the Odds Logic Live odd screen, we'll
see that Utah is a substantial favorite in this one,
even though they're coming in unranked. But I'm not sure
the line is high enough. In fact, my game simulation
favors Utah by over ten points in this game, and
the current line is Utah minus five and a half six.
It's six in some spots, it's dropped to five and
a half in others, so yes, there is line value
with the uts is I have over a ten point
win on average here and the difference in this game.
Both teams are top fortyish offenses. Utah is a top
ten defense. I rate them as the definite stronger defensive
team in this game, and I think that'll be the
difference in this one. By the way, both teams have
been very mediocre rowing the ball. Arizona say six point
six yards per pass against teams that allow six point eight,
Utah seven against teams that allow seven. So both pass
defenses hold substantial edges here, and both teams get over
half their rushing yards i'm sorry, over half their offensive
yards by rushing the ball. Both teams run for over
fifty percent of their total yards, so I think that'll
help the under in this game keep the clock moving.
When you don't have explosive offenses throwing the ball less
big plays, it's unlikely their running back is going to
break a sixty yard touchdown run against two good run defenses.
So I also like the under forty eight in this game.
I lean Utah minus five and a half based online value,
and also under forty eight in this game between two
teams that don't throw the ball that well, that's your
late game ten to fifteen Eastern Saturday night on ESPN.
Now there's one other bonus game. Let's get to lucky
seven here. I'm going to give you one bonus game,
and this one's really reaching because this team is getting
one additional vote, dead last in the additional votes, which
means they be thirty ninth and that's all burned against
number ten Georgia. So it's number ten Georgia at number
thirty nine Auburn because they're getting one additional vote, the
only team getting an additional vote, just getting won the
last one of the eight people at seven thirty Eastern
on ABC. But I wanted to point this game out
because I do think Auburn is a live dog in
this one. Now, will they be ranked next week if
they pull the upset? Perhaps. I don't know if they'll
go from one additional vote to enough to be a
top twenty five rather, but I do think this game
is going to be tight. First of all, my ten
thousand game simulation favors Georgia by just one point on average.
Currently they're about a three and a half point favorite,
So I do think there's some line value with Auburn,
and I know they've looked ugly offensively the last couple games.
They put up only seventeen at Oklahoma, only ten at
Texas A and M. But those are two of the
best defensive teams in the country on the road, and
now they're coming off a bye week. Really like to
set up here for Auburn a little bit of a
hold your nose ugly underdog, and the Betty markets aren't
respecting him at three and a half. And Georgia has
been suspect this year. They played tough against Alabama, actually
ran for two hundred and twenty seven yards, but the
Auburn rush defense, when he factor in the opponent's played
as really been strong this season. They're giving up just
eighty eight rushing yards just two point six yards per
carry against the teams at average four point four yards
per rush. Georgia only averages four point nine. Auburn allowing
just sixteen points a game against teams that average twenty
nine points a game. They have faced a really tough schedule,
especially the last two weeks, and I think because of
that they're a little underrated. Now. I would lean towards
Auburn at plus three and a half or more a
key number, as I favored Georgia by just won in
this game another bonus game I wanted to give you
here in the Top forty report this week for Saturday,
October the eleventh. Whoo, there you go, the seven biggest
college football games for this Saturday, Week seven. What are
your thoughts on these games? Which sides or totals do
you agree or disagree with? What other games do you like? Hey?
Some under the radar games? You know? I had two
easy best bet winners last week on big favorites from
the small colleges. So once again the mid majors, if
you will, the Group of five whatever they're calling them.
So yes, I'm giving you all the big games here,
but we do dive a little bit deeper and have
some under the radar best bets as well. Which games
are you looking at this Saturday? Drop them in the
comments below. He include some analysis. If you have time,
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