WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:03.000 I want to welcome everyone back to the pe Kenana show. 2 00:00:04.160 --> 00:00:06.719 We got a good one today, Thomas. Let's talk about 3 00:00:07.599 --> 00:00:11.839 well finishing up the Cold War series. You know, they 4 00:00:12.240 --> 00:00:16.920 jump right into the conflict in the Gulf. So you 5 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:20.199 wanted to talk about the Gulf War what some people 6 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:24.960 call Gulf War one? Uh, number one? And yeah, So 7 00:00:25.879 --> 00:00:28.199 why is this such a compelling topic to you? 8 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:30.519 It was a few things I want to cover two 9 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:35.119 that are related. Out of the gate. One of the 10 00:00:35.119 --> 00:00:39.240 guys on my timeline, he posed a question, he asked 11 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:41.799 me because I mentioned that there's an essay that's very 12 00:00:41.840 --> 00:00:45.399 hard to find for some reason. It was it was 13 00:00:45.439 --> 00:00:48.359 it was Yaki's in the year two thousand essay. Where 14 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:52.759 I mean I I I advise people to take note that, 15 00:00:53.920 --> 00:00:56.759 you know, Yaki was suggesting that the Soviet Union would 16 00:00:56.759 --> 00:01:00.439 not exist at the turn of the millennium, like as 17 00:01:00.479 --> 00:01:05.519 constituted in nineteen fifty. And this this dude who follows 18 00:01:05.519 --> 00:01:08.120 to say it lea. He's like, did yack you have 19 00:01:08.159 --> 00:01:10.920 a did he render like a similar diagnosis to the 20 00:01:10.959 --> 00:01:15.359 United States, like, you know, colloquially speaking, And I told 21 00:01:15.439 --> 00:01:17.319 him no, because generally the kind of thing is a 22 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:20.719 fool's errand you know he's like, no, I understand that 23 00:01:20.599 --> 00:01:22.560 that's not like a dumb question at all, Like it's 24 00:01:22.920 --> 00:01:26.040 in short form, don't like it as it's impossible, can 25 00:01:26.120 --> 00:01:29.599 they tone, I wasn't being flipping about that at all. 26 00:01:29.599 --> 00:01:34.359 It's a good question. But the reason why, I mean, 27 00:01:34.439 --> 00:01:37.840 Yaqui definitely in absolute terms would not have viewed and 28 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:41.599 did not view the American system as long for this earth. 29 00:01:41.680 --> 00:01:45.079 But there's something peculiar about communism. I mean, there's all 30 00:01:45.159 --> 00:01:47.000 kinds of peculiar things about it, but it was more 31 00:01:47.120 --> 00:01:53.920 contrivance than other ideological experiments, like obviously arguably it was 32 00:01:53.959 --> 00:02:00.879 the only true sort of top down is sociopolitical experiment 33 00:02:01.239 --> 00:02:08.159 at scale that uh there really is, I think not 34 00:02:08.159 --> 00:02:13.120 not uh pressing for it, the Soviet Union, not just 35 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:17.680 because the peculiarities of you know, the epoch you know, 36 00:02:17.759 --> 00:02:22.439 the the nineteenth century into the into the twentieth century, 37 00:02:23.080 --> 00:02:29.599 it but also just the process that the process of 38 00:02:29.599 --> 00:02:34.719 of of of dialectic itself, you know conceptually and philosophically 39 00:02:35.319 --> 00:02:39.439 as well as in you know, concrete material developmental terms. 40 00:02:40.159 --> 00:02:45.919 There's processes that must be left to develop spontaneously in 41 00:02:46.039 --> 00:02:49.199 order in order for any in any in order for 42 00:02:49.240 --> 00:02:52.280 any political structure at scale to to stand itself. Okay, 43 00:02:52.719 --> 00:02:56.120 Like what do I mean by that? What really killed 44 00:02:56.120 --> 00:03:00.560 the Soviet Union in terms of its internal constitution was 45 00:03:00.599 --> 00:03:05.879 the information age. Okay. If you abolish the price mechanism 46 00:03:06.080 --> 00:03:08.680 as a sort of the signaling variable as it were 47 00:03:09.639 --> 00:03:14.759 for for uh, you know, developed for for for for 48 00:03:14.840 --> 00:03:22.159 innovation and development, you're you're essentially always reverse engineering whatever 49 00:03:22.199 --> 00:03:27.639 your whatever your adversaries are able to construct and innovate 50 00:03:27.680 --> 00:03:30.400 and develop. You know, Like why is that? Well? I mean, 51 00:03:30.439 --> 00:03:34.400 think about it like this, if I if we corralled, 52 00:03:34.479 --> 00:03:36.879 if we created some think tank of say like you know, 53 00:03:37.199 --> 00:03:40.360 Elon Musk and uh and you know a handful of 54 00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:45.560 uh you know, like uh like top finance, some players 55 00:03:45.680 --> 00:03:48.080 you know, like Goldman Sachs types, you know, and then 56 00:03:48.120 --> 00:03:50.199 and then you threw some uh you know, you know, 57 00:03:50.240 --> 00:03:54.439 you throw some like applying engineering uh prodigies or applied 58 00:03:54.439 --> 00:03:58.719 engineering prodigies into that you a hypothetical group from like 59 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:02.800 m I T. You know, would uh and you just 60 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:05.680 told them okay, like think of dynamic ideas, you know, 61 00:04:05.719 --> 00:04:08.280 would they eventually where they eventually innovate kind of like 62 00:04:08.319 --> 00:04:11.080 the next big like telecom breakthrough or like the next 63 00:04:11.719 --> 00:04:16.240 or the next kind of generation, uh, you know, like 64 00:04:16.319 --> 00:04:19.839 electric car. I mean, I that's not the way things work. 65 00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:25.199 Some variant of that was done vis a vis the 66 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:29.480 Apollo program, and in military matters that is the way 67 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:34.120 things are done, because you're the data set you're operating 68 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:39.879 from is the capabilities of the other side, the probable exigencies, 69 00:04:40.199 --> 00:04:43.360 you know, things relating to the theater that you're likely 70 00:04:43.399 --> 00:04:47.600 to fight in, and you know what capability is going 71 00:04:47.639 --> 00:04:49.959 to lend themselves to, you know, waging. We're in that theater. 72 00:04:50.560 --> 00:04:53.199 But I mean basically you're you're, you're you know, your 73 00:04:53.399 --> 00:04:56.399 your your data set is actual is actual combat, which 74 00:04:56.439 --> 00:04:59.959 generally in some capacities underway and low intensity you know, 75 00:05:00.360 --> 00:05:03.680 kind of on every continent, you know, perpetually. But in 76 00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:06.879 terms of like major wars, you know, basically once you're 77 00:05:06.920 --> 00:05:10.240 at war, I mean, that's kind of your laboratory, okay, 78 00:05:10.279 --> 00:05:14.759 as it were, And that can't be over emphasized as 79 00:05:14.800 --> 00:05:19.240 the fundamental weakness of the planned economy. You know, in 80 00:05:19.319 --> 00:05:25.399 the Soviet Union, did innovate a computer in the Eisenhower 81 00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:29.160 Cruise I eff era that was advanced as anything in 82 00:05:29.199 --> 00:05:32.839 the UK and America. But you know, thirty years later 83 00:05:32.959 --> 00:05:35.399 there was a grand total of less than five thousand 84 00:05:35.480 --> 00:05:38.959 computers in the Soviet Union. Like why they didn't know how, 85 00:05:39.079 --> 00:05:41.160 they didn't know what function it was best suited. Do 86 00:05:41.920 --> 00:05:44.360 you know? They had some sense in basic terms that 87 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:48.839 this is fundamental to command and control. But you know, 88 00:05:48.879 --> 00:05:51.480 you can't just you can't just predict like some kind 89 00:05:51.480 --> 00:05:56.439 of augur you know, what role like new revolutionary new 90 00:05:56.480 --> 00:06:01.439 technology is going to be best applied to in in 91 00:06:01.439 --> 00:06:05.959 in absolute terms, you know, for whatever purpose you know 92 00:06:06.040 --> 00:06:11.680 it uh now extrapolate that kind of stagnant tendency, that 93 00:06:11.800 --> 00:06:16.000 literally stagnant tendency, you know, kind of every conceptual endeavor, 94 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:23.279 and you have Marxist Leninism, you know, and related to that, 95 00:06:24.480 --> 00:06:30.360 but not you know, solely approximately caused by that, is 96 00:06:30.360 --> 00:06:33.720 that the whole concept of you know, this this this 97 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:40.600 uh this intrinsically hostile labor and and and capital paradigm, 98 00:06:40.639 --> 00:06:44.199 you know, and the kind of the strange sociology of 99 00:06:44.279 --> 00:06:48.199 cities literally being you know, barracks for you know, hundreds 100 00:06:48.199 --> 00:06:52.480 of thousands of of uh of of factory workers. You 101 00:06:52.519 --> 00:06:54.800 know that sustain you know that this kind of terrestrial 102 00:06:54.879 --> 00:06:58.480 like national manufacturing economy of of value added exports like 103 00:06:58.519 --> 00:07:01.720 that that belongs long at a discreete moment in time, 104 00:07:02.680 --> 00:07:08.160 and building a kind of entire socio cultural structure around that. 105 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:13.399 You're you're doing yourself to being kind of frozen in 106 00:07:13.399 --> 00:07:19.600 in in that in that moment. You know, that's that's 107 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:22.040 the reason why. And I mean there's also in my opinion, 108 00:07:22.120 --> 00:07:25.120 like spiritual matters. I mean that quite literally, you know, 109 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:29.959 that make it not sustainable number one. But also I 110 00:07:29.959 --> 00:07:36.040 identify glaring frailties within the system as it existed, even 111 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:39.720 to people who are basically secular, this was a parent 112 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:43.600 That's why even people who were not Catholic and not 113 00:07:43.639 --> 00:07:47.399 even religious, you know, very much behind John Paul the 114 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:52.519 second and you know his efforts to to you know, 115 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:58.279 weaken the the the grip of the party states, specifically 116 00:07:58.279 --> 00:08:01.759 on Poland, but and all the captive nations as they 117 00:08:01.759 --> 00:08:05.720 were called. You know that had with a communist party 118 00:08:05.759 --> 00:08:12.800 had a soul claim the power. But that's that's why 119 00:08:12.959 --> 00:08:15.480 even even thinkers far more kind of orthodox and they're 120 00:08:15.480 --> 00:08:21.439 thinking than YACKI understood this. George Kennan, who have a 121 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:23.279 whole lot of respect for as I think people know, 122 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:26.839 he made that point again and again, and he was 123 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:30.839 criticized for it roundly by you know what was then 124 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:33.919 the equivalent of deep state types and you know, Zionus 125 00:08:33.960 --> 00:08:36.720 types who just hated the Soviet Union for their own 126 00:08:36.759 --> 00:08:39.240 kind of ethno sectarian reasons. You know, same people who 127 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:44.320 who've got this kind of sanguinary hated to Russia today, 128 00:08:45.159 --> 00:08:47.840 but also just guys who you know, they're they're whole 129 00:08:47.919 --> 00:08:49.519 kind of raised on detro and the way they made 130 00:08:49.559 --> 00:08:53.679 a living was by discussing the Soviet Union as this 131 00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:59.799 you know, perennial and immutable and and just insurmountable feature, 132 00:08:59.840 --> 00:09:02.399 this rateging landscape. You know, if you're if you're a 133 00:09:02.399 --> 00:09:06.279 second rate academic, but you've uh, you know, but you've 134 00:09:06.320 --> 00:09:11.519 you've found every profitable niche for yourself as this kind 135 00:09:11.559 --> 00:09:14.600 of public intellectual who's you know, protecting the country from 136 00:09:14.840 --> 00:09:16.759 this insidious threat. I mean, think of it. It's kind 137 00:09:16.759 --> 00:09:19.600 of like this the geostrategic equivalent, like at doctor Fauci. 138 00:09:19.879 --> 00:09:22.559 You know that's a sovietologists were okay, like are they 139 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:24.159 were they gonna? I mean, I think a lot of 140 00:09:24.159 --> 00:09:29.080 these people didn't have any meaningful understanding of of of 141 00:09:29.120 --> 00:09:33.360 the situation or of communism. But even those they did, 142 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:37.600 they had no interest in in, you know, raising the 143 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:42.159 possibility that this system has an expiration date. You know, 144 00:09:42.279 --> 00:09:50.120 not to be flippant about it, but the book Cybernetics 145 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:57.399 by by Winer Uh it was published in nineteen forty eight, 146 00:09:57.679 --> 00:10:01.639 and that term is uh something that centered in people's 147 00:10:01.679 --> 00:10:06.240 vocabulary from you know, science fiction and stuff. But it's 148 00:10:06.279 --> 00:10:12.120 an actual it's a meaningful term in in uh, in 149 00:10:12.440 --> 00:10:18.639 neuroscience and and applied logic and you know, AI and 150 00:10:18.639 --> 00:10:24.759 and all kinds of interdisciplinary fields that relate to decision making, 151 00:10:27.080 --> 00:10:30.639 particularly that which you know involves the interface of a 152 00:10:30.720 --> 00:10:33.720 human decision maker in a machine and various capacities. Okay, 153 00:10:35.919 --> 00:10:40.000 I raised that. I raised that text because again it 154 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:43.080 the first the first edition was published in nineteen forty 155 00:10:43.159 --> 00:10:50.399 eight from a really uh really really to Die was 156 00:10:50.440 --> 00:10:54.879 cast in terms of the Soviet Union's fate immediately after 157 00:10:54.879 --> 00:10:56.879 the cessation about civilies in World War Two. It's not 158 00:10:56.879 --> 00:10:58.879 to say it was it was inevitable the Soviet Union 159 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:01.240 was going to lose the Cold War, not at all. 160 00:11:01.639 --> 00:11:03.000 I made the point and the first one to make 161 00:11:03.000 --> 00:11:07.320 the point again and again that the Soviets very were 162 00:11:07.440 --> 00:11:11.799 very well situated in the strategic terms to win the 163 00:11:11.799 --> 00:11:17.159 Cold War, and arguably they taught the raison detra for 164 00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:20.799 that was in part you know that fact, and it 165 00:11:20.960 --> 00:11:25.320 was the Washington establishment coming to terms with the reality 166 00:11:25.360 --> 00:11:28.440 that you know, Warsaw Pact was winning on the battlefield. 167 00:11:28.519 --> 00:11:33.519 So I'm not suggesting the contrary, but my point is 168 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:39.320 again to kind of bring it back that that there 169 00:11:39.320 --> 00:11:43.960 were basic frailties and peculiarities in the Soviet system and 170 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:48.679 you will not find, uh, you will not find another 171 00:11:49.000 --> 00:11:52.120 example of of a literally like planned society in that way. 172 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:58.519 And this is this is the point from where Yaqui 173 00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:13.840 was speaking, moving ahead in large measure, with some exceptions 174 00:12:13.879 --> 00:12:16.960 that uh, I think are kind of obvious to everybody, 175 00:12:18.200 --> 00:12:21.960 and that don't really need to be fleshed out discreetly. 176 00:12:22.840 --> 00:12:27.840 Every state, every modern state, you know that that that 177 00:12:27.919 --> 00:12:34.360 emerged as at least a nominally independent sovereignty after the 178 00:12:34.440 --> 00:12:39.799 Second World War, UH was created by by the Cold 179 00:12:39.879 --> 00:12:43.320 by by the dialectic of the Cold War. Okay, even UH, 180 00:12:43.360 --> 00:12:46.679 even if even even those states that adopted a third 181 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:51.840 position his orientation, they were doing so in dialogue with 182 00:12:51.960 --> 00:12:59.159 the Cold War contra the ideological paradigm they're in which 183 00:12:59.200 --> 00:13:02.960 they viewed as O they're existentially menacing due to them 184 00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.519 being forced to pick a side and what could very 185 00:13:05.559 --> 00:13:12.639 easily become, you know, a general nuclear war, you know, 186 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:15.320 or owing to you know, fear of a kind of 187 00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:20.279 cultural contamination that pretty much everybody formally aligned with out 188 00:13:20.279 --> 00:13:24.120 of the you know, the NATO or the socialist camp 189 00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:28.559 ran the risk of is they availed themselves to you know, 190 00:13:31.080 --> 00:13:33.720 the kind of kind of openness to the you know, 191 00:13:33.799 --> 00:13:38.840 to to the one superpower or the other. Iraq was 192 00:13:38.879 --> 00:13:44.360 no exception. To understand why America went to war with 193 00:13:44.399 --> 00:13:47.960 Annam's Iraq, It's that what I just describe needs to 194 00:13:47.960 --> 00:13:54.200 be accounted for in basic terms beyond the superficial. And 195 00:13:54.279 --> 00:14:01.440 to understand why America was sort of so focused on Iraq. Oh, 196 00:14:01.440 --> 00:14:09.519 it's this too. The Iran Raic War was the progenitor 197 00:14:09.720 --> 00:14:12.720 of what became the Gulf War of nineteen ninety one. 198 00:14:13.919 --> 00:14:16.840 If I could bring it up on my screen, I 199 00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:19.759 bring up the notes from Saddam's meeting with his war 200 00:14:19.840 --> 00:14:23.759 cabinet on the eve of war in nineteen eighty before 201 00:14:23.759 --> 00:14:26.399 giving the order to go to war with uh The 202 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:37.080 Islamic Republic of Iran. Basically, uh, everybody from uh you know, 203 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.159 these these Arabists like Saddam was, these these Pan Arab 204 00:14:41.320 --> 00:14:47.200 you know, nationalists to uh you know, you know, to 205 00:14:47.240 --> 00:14:50.759 the to these these radically pious uh you know Salafi types, 206 00:14:51.360 --> 00:14:54.159 you know, like bin Laden, you know, to uh, you know, 207 00:14:54.240 --> 00:14:58.480 to Zionists in Israel, to uh, to these American on 208 00:14:58.960 --> 00:15:04.919 Cold War functionaries like Rumsfeld, Nick Cheney. The thing they 209 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:07.679 all agreed on, in gewostrategic terms was that the sort 210 00:15:07.679 --> 00:15:17.799 of natural power arrangement in the Near East, it's a 211 00:15:17.840 --> 00:15:23.559 struggle between Turkey and Iran for regional supremacy. That that's 212 00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:28.559 what's precedented, you know for a millennia, going back to 213 00:15:28.600 --> 00:15:30.200 when you know it was the it was the Ottomans 214 00:15:30.200 --> 00:15:34.399 who who defeated the Mongols in the Near East and 215 00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:37.720 in person for all time. You know, Thus the the 216 00:15:37.840 --> 00:15:45.480 Caliphate being a Turkish caliphate, an Arab one. Iran despite 217 00:15:45.519 --> 00:15:49.440 being a basically kind of like inward looking civilization, and 218 00:15:49.480 --> 00:15:53.320 it is in some ways of civilization into itself. It 219 00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:58.000 is a huge country with a very powerful heritage and culture. 220 00:15:58.000 --> 00:16:03.799 Doesn't matter. Anybody who's gonna tuned in to our you know, 221 00:16:04.159 --> 00:16:07.159 partisan community. I shouldn't need to elaborately make that case, 222 00:16:09.480 --> 00:16:15.159 but just uh, in raw strategic terms at least, you know, 223 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:20.759 accounting for limitations of power rejection capability. There's this great 224 00:16:20.799 --> 00:16:28.639 potential in Iran. Okay, and Saddam again being very much 225 00:16:29.200 --> 00:16:34.000 uh the creature of the Cold War conceptually, he was 226 00:16:34.000 --> 00:16:37.559 trying to accomplish what NASCAR had failed to do, and 227 00:16:37.559 --> 00:16:41.639 and create a genuinely Arabist block, you know, with the 228 00:16:41.720 --> 00:16:49.519 Bath Party as the as the catalyst. But he had 229 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:52.720 to tread very carefully with you know, adopting any appearance 230 00:16:52.720 --> 00:16:57.639 of sectarian prejudice or motivation. The Iraqi Bath Party it 231 00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:01.960 had Christians and key places, Tarika z one of them. 232 00:17:02.200 --> 00:17:05.680 It had Shia in in high roles, particularly some in 233 00:17:05.720 --> 00:17:08.759 the military, but at base it was a Sunny party. 234 00:17:08.839 --> 00:17:16.440 It was a party of the Sunni minority. Okay, Saddam Uh. 235 00:17:16.680 --> 00:17:24.319 Saddam's agrievances that Iran went way back the Algiers agreement 236 00:17:24.359 --> 00:17:30.279 that had been signed with the shop Uh was considered 237 00:17:30.319 --> 00:17:38.359 this kind of a victory. M see you of of types, interestingly, 238 00:17:39.839 --> 00:17:42.720 and it had allowed both Iran and begged they had 239 00:17:42.720 --> 00:17:48.640 to save face with these territorial swaps that seemed to 240 00:17:48.680 --> 00:17:55.240 be the kind of remaining conflict diads potentially between the 241 00:17:55.279 --> 00:18:00.519 two countries. The Iranian Revolution changed everything. You know, we 242 00:18:00.599 --> 00:18:05.839 talked before about how nobody really foresaw Islam becoming this 243 00:18:05.920 --> 00:18:12.200 power plant will force this animating principle, you know, particularly, uh, 244 00:18:12.440 --> 00:18:15.000 the late Cold War was still very much the Cold War. 245 00:18:15.160 --> 00:18:19.160 Arguably there's a more kind of earnest ideological bent in 246 00:18:19.319 --> 00:18:22.160 you know, seventy nine eighty than there had been any 247 00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:25.480 time prior to you know, the Eisenhower Arab you know, 248 00:18:25.519 --> 00:18:30.920 and and but this was not something anybody was really 249 00:18:31.079 --> 00:18:36.680 thinking about. And the seizure of the Grand Mosque also 250 00:18:36.720 --> 00:18:41.640 in nineteen seventy nine, we're in these radical Salafis, you know, 251 00:18:42.799 --> 00:18:46.480 occupied uh, the Grand Mosque of Mecca for weeks, you know, 252 00:18:46.559 --> 00:18:50.720 demand demanded the advocation of the House Assad for you know, 253 00:18:50.799 --> 00:18:55.039 being at odds with being at odds with with Allah 254 00:18:56.359 --> 00:19:01.160 and a false Maslem the uh. They went as far 255 00:19:02.440 --> 00:19:04.480 the Grand Mosque occupiers, they went as far as the 256 00:19:04.519 --> 00:19:06.720 claim that their leader, I can't remember his name at 257 00:19:06.759 --> 00:19:09.440 the top of my head, I'd a written down. They 258 00:19:09.440 --> 00:19:10.599 went as far as the claim that he was the 259 00:19:10.640 --> 00:19:16.440 Madi you know, the messianic uh historical figure would emerge, 260 00:19:16.640 --> 00:19:22.119 you know, as as prophesied by Muhammad. I mean, so 261 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:28.440 this was this was profound stuff underway. Okay, people who 262 00:19:28.480 --> 00:19:31.119 have a kind of cynical view as well as others 263 00:19:31.160 --> 00:19:33.200 who just I think I'm kind of an incomplete understanding 264 00:19:36.160 --> 00:19:40.519 going to their own probable conceptual biases as regards will disbelief. 265 00:19:40.720 --> 00:19:46.119 Just generally, Uh, they had to look at this as 266 00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:49.039 no big deal, or they look at it as Saddam 267 00:19:49.079 --> 00:19:53.359 just being terrified of some kind of general uprising, and 268 00:19:53.480 --> 00:19:56.319 Iraq not even so much against the Bath Party, but 269 00:19:56.440 --> 00:20:00.160 just this this kind of radicalized this a lot of consciousness, 270 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:06.000 you know, sweeping him and his comrades aside. I don't 271 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:10.279 really think that was it. I think there was great fear, 272 00:20:10.640 --> 00:20:14.039 the kind of the fear that you know, sectarian minorities 273 00:20:14.079 --> 00:20:19.400 have of the program wherever they uh where wherever they're 274 00:20:19.440 --> 00:20:26.200 situated where you know, that's a realistic possibility. I think, uh, 275 00:20:26.519 --> 00:20:28.799 some had a more nuanced view of it than simply 276 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:35.000 this is something needs to be quashed less you know. Uh, 277 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:40.079 it kind of become the defining ideological currency of of 278 00:20:40.079 --> 00:20:44.759 of the Arab speaking world on some level, I believe 279 00:20:44.839 --> 00:20:48.519 like all Sunnis, and Sam was a Sunni Maslim UH. 280 00:20:49.519 --> 00:20:54.079 There they felt even more gravely affronted UH at the 281 00:20:54.119 --> 00:20:58.839 concept of h An Iranian Shia caliphates than you know, 282 00:20:59.680 --> 00:21:05.720 they had been centuries prior to you know, the inception 283 00:21:05.839 --> 00:21:10.119 of the Turkish Califate, and so all these things conspired 284 00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:16.799 to kind of korem Iran Iraq towards war, and the 285 00:21:16.880 --> 00:21:20.200 United States and NATO, particularly the Buddhas Republic were very 286 00:21:20.319 --> 00:21:23.759 much behind this. I made the point again and again, 287 00:21:25.079 --> 00:21:29.039 you know, and again. I can't cite precise numbers because 288 00:21:29.079 --> 00:21:34.799 I can't call it my notes, but the it was 289 00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:42.240 around fifty thousand people who UH who died owing to 290 00:21:42.359 --> 00:21:48.039 uh Iraqi chemical weapons assaults on Iran. Most of them 291 00:21:48.039 --> 00:21:52.599 are soldiers. Despite what, despite the impression people have oing 292 00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:55.799 to you know this, you know, the kind of endlessly 293 00:21:55.839 --> 00:21:59.920 repeated narratives about the Kurds, and those people did die. 294 00:22:00.039 --> 00:22:03.279 I mean they there was plenty of civilian attrition, but 295 00:22:04.240 --> 00:22:08.319 it was primarily military attrition. About twenty thousand of that 296 00:22:08.480 --> 00:22:12.240 number died outright in the field. You know, these were 297 00:22:12.279 --> 00:22:17.960 Iranian troops who were hit with chemical munitions. A lot 298 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:22.559 of nerve agent and then modern nerve agent. Nobody's really 299 00:22:22.559 --> 00:22:27.359 sure like what it would do. A fair amount of 300 00:22:27.359 --> 00:22:36.640 this nerve Asian was procured from NATO countries. Ireneians soldiers 301 00:22:36.680 --> 00:22:40.880 were treated in Europe, in Scandinavia, some in Germany, some 302 00:22:40.920 --> 00:22:42.799 of the Benelux countries. I mean, part of that was 303 00:22:42.799 --> 00:22:45.319 genuine doctor without borders, like doing their thing. Part of 304 00:22:45.319 --> 00:22:50.920 it was a hot war in Europe. Definitely, chemical weapons, 305 00:22:50.920 --> 00:22:55.720 they're not obsolescent. They're actually quite utile, depending on the 306 00:22:57.759 --> 00:23:05.559 depending on the battle space and a general a general 307 00:23:05.640 --> 00:23:09.279 war between uh NATO and Warsaw Pact in nineteen eighty 308 00:23:10.480 --> 00:23:13.440 it's almost, I mean, it's a very on conclusion that 309 00:23:13.640 --> 00:23:18.039 chemical weapons would have been used. So the world is 310 00:23:18.079 --> 00:23:21.599 watching the Iran Iraq war, okay, for all kinds of reasons, 311 00:23:23.240 --> 00:23:26.640 some of which, uh you know, some which owing to 312 00:23:28.119 --> 00:23:35.279 very concrete for kind of purely military matters, others relating 313 00:23:35.319 --> 00:23:40.359 to the political ones. And this idea that saidam this 314 00:23:40.480 --> 00:23:46.359 deranged maniac and he only enjoyed the large guests of 315 00:23:46.359 --> 00:23:49.119 of the United States and the bundest Republic and in 316 00:23:49.160 --> 00:23:52.880 London because the Iranians were even worse deranged mediacs. I 317 00:23:52.920 --> 00:23:55.200 mean that that's that's that's garbage for all kinds of reasons, 318 00:23:55.240 --> 00:23:58.480 and only literates think that way. But also, sadamza Raak, 319 00:23:58.559 --> 00:24:02.119 it was a brutal state, it was a gangsterish regime. 320 00:24:02.319 --> 00:24:04.880 But I mean a lot of regimes were like that, 321 00:24:04.960 --> 00:24:08.400 A lot of regimes are like that. That America backed 322 00:24:08.440 --> 00:24:12.000 the ultimate megaciityl gangster regime in World War two and 323 00:24:12.039 --> 00:24:16.240 stalin Soviet Union. So I mean it's not really sam 324 00:24:16.319 --> 00:24:19.799 Za rag was remarkable in the sense of how we're 325 00:24:19.880 --> 00:24:23.519 where and when it was historically situated, and you know, 326 00:24:23.559 --> 00:24:27.559 the kind of the global power plays that became involved 327 00:24:27.559 --> 00:24:32.359 in in a very direct and catastrophic capacity. But there's 328 00:24:32.400 --> 00:24:37.000 not something like weirder extreme excuse me, in any sense 329 00:24:37.079 --> 00:24:42.200 that Sadam Sane enjoyed the backing of them, of the 330 00:24:42.319 --> 00:24:49.359 US and and and certain key uh needle players. And 331 00:24:49.400 --> 00:24:53.519 it's uh. The minutes from the meeting between Saddam and 332 00:24:53.559 --> 00:24:56.759 the Bath War Council, what amounts to the Bath War Council, 333 00:24:57.759 --> 00:25:02.559 he's talking about restraints like not in uh not not 334 00:25:02.640 --> 00:25:04.799 in like a Ronald Reagan kind of way or something, 335 00:25:05.359 --> 00:25:07.680 but he's saying like, we don't want a wider war 336 00:25:07.799 --> 00:25:12.119 than what we need in order to you know, situate ourself, 337 00:25:12.599 --> 00:25:15.680 uh in the position we want to be contra Iran. 338 00:25:16.279 --> 00:25:18.319 You know, we don't want this to turn into a 339 00:25:18.319 --> 00:25:21.240 prolonged war. We don't want it to become a wider 340 00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:25.359 war where among the thanks God forbid Iran, could you know, 341 00:25:25.480 --> 00:25:31.400 potentially shore up sympathy of of of of other Moslim states, 342 00:25:31.839 --> 00:25:33.240 you know, like these are not there's not like the 343 00:25:33.359 --> 00:25:37.880 ramblings of some idiot or it's not it's not it's 344 00:25:37.920 --> 00:25:42.079 not some belieguer dictator who's suing for war in lieu 345 00:25:42.119 --> 00:25:45.200 of the status quo, because that's its only path of survival, 346 00:25:45.960 --> 00:25:52.279 you know, and that's key, you know. And it's also 347 00:25:54.400 --> 00:25:59.799 Iran fought a lot better than anybody thought. And obviously 348 00:25:59.839 --> 00:26:02.640 they hung on for almost a decade, you know, getting 349 00:26:02.920 --> 00:26:07.079 pounded by the Iraqi army that was throwing everything it 350 00:26:07.079 --> 00:26:10.359 had at them, quite literally. They you know, America was 351 00:26:10.400 --> 00:26:13.759 saying in the epoch, uh, you know, State Department and 352 00:26:13.880 --> 00:26:17.079 CIA and I think Defense Intelligence probably had a more 353 00:26:17.079 --> 00:26:20.759 realistic grasp on things. But it's the same, it's the 354 00:26:20.799 --> 00:26:24.720 same nonsense they always say about states and regimes. They 355 00:26:24.720 --> 00:26:27.480 don't like that this regime is about the fall aparts. 356 00:26:27.519 --> 00:26:31.640 Everybody is starving there. You know, it had the revolutionary 357 00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:35.240 government has no popular support. You know the moment, you know, 358 00:26:35.279 --> 00:26:38.799 the moment hostilities commenced. You know they're all going to 359 00:26:38.880 --> 00:26:41.279 surrender and the regime is going to collapse. I mean, 360 00:26:41.319 --> 00:26:45.759 this was you know this, this is always the alibi. 361 00:26:46.119 --> 00:26:50.759 But it's incredibly it's it's remarkably foolish because if Iran, 362 00:26:51.559 --> 00:26:53.799 you know, like I, this is probably the only time 363 00:26:53.799 --> 00:26:58.359 you'll hear me cite fu Co in appraising capacity. But 364 00:26:58.440 --> 00:27:04.240 he he wrote this dispatch one of if you're kinda 365 00:27:04.279 --> 00:27:08.000 purely like journalistic, at least in structure, you know, dispatches 366 00:27:08.079 --> 00:27:12.319 he ever released for at least for wide publication. It 367 00:27:12.400 --> 00:27:16.160 was about the Rnian Revolution and it was frankly insightful. 368 00:27:17.480 --> 00:27:19.759 And he said, this is a genuine third way. This 369 00:27:19.839 --> 00:27:24.079 is a genuine pop popular revolution. But it's not something 370 00:27:24.079 --> 00:27:26.960 that's just going to burn itself out, so to speak, 371 00:27:27.240 --> 00:27:31.400 once the immediate catalyst revolution fervor is gone. You know, 372 00:27:31.480 --> 00:27:34.440 he's like, for better or worse, these people have, these 373 00:27:34.440 --> 00:27:37.039 people have a very highly developed a vision for what 374 00:27:37.079 --> 00:27:39.759 they are trying to do. It is in fact precedented 375 00:27:41.880 --> 00:27:46.839 it's uh, you know, it appeals to a wide swath 376 00:27:46.960 --> 00:27:51.039 of people, you know, demographically. This is something that needs 377 00:27:51.079 --> 00:27:53.559 to be taken seriously, you know. And he was speaking 378 00:27:53.640 --> 00:27:58.039 obviously in the context of you know, the Asdyton was ending, okay, 379 00:27:58.119 --> 00:28:03.119 but he was kind of a lone voice in the wilderness. 380 00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:05.200 And it's weird. I mean, aside from the fact that 381 00:28:05.640 --> 00:28:08.359 you know, he was kind of a later date desad 382 00:28:08.519 --> 00:28:10.880 and a lot of what he produced in addition to 383 00:28:10.920 --> 00:28:14.079 just being you know, kind of grossly morally offensive and 384 00:28:14.200 --> 00:28:16.279 up to so it was just plaining, like not insightful, 385 00:28:16.279 --> 00:28:19.799 and it was wrong, particularly on matters of you know, power, 386 00:28:19.880 --> 00:28:24.759 politics and kind of human affairs and of a political nature. 387 00:28:25.319 --> 00:28:28.319 But whatever reason, he was absolutely right about that. Okay 388 00:28:29.839 --> 00:28:33.799 that perhaps wren't some speculation at some point the dedicated capacity, 389 00:28:33.880 --> 00:28:37.839 but he was absolutely right. So they ran Iraq war 390 00:28:37.880 --> 00:28:40.119 became just like a disaster. You know, neither I ran 391 00:28:40.240 --> 00:28:42.519 or Iraq ever recovered from it, because you know, you 392 00:28:42.519 --> 00:28:47.119 don't recover from eight years of total war, okay, and 393 00:28:47.200 --> 00:28:50.279 if you do, eventually, you're not the same. Particularly, I mean, 394 00:28:51.160 --> 00:28:54.559 when you're when you're talking about the when you're talking 395 00:28:54.599 --> 00:28:56.640 about when I ran in Iraq on the late twentieth century, 396 00:28:56.720 --> 00:29:01.759 I got scale, Like though it's it some it's like 397 00:29:01.880 --> 00:29:04.440 what I just stated as a constant pretty much regardless, 398 00:29:05.119 --> 00:29:09.599 you know, but particularly particularly for states of that of 399 00:29:09.640 --> 00:29:13.079 that size, I ran was a lot bigger than I racked. 400 00:29:13.119 --> 00:29:18.079 My point is, neither was a superpower or anything. Yeah, 401 00:29:18.119 --> 00:29:20.720