Speaker 1: The interesting thing here, obviously, this chart has not fallen
Speaker 1: nearly as much as Bitcoin dominance had, and so as
Speaker 1: we think, what is the implication here, what is the
Speaker 1: discrepancy between these two charts actually telling us.
Speaker 2: It's telling us.
Speaker 1: That all of the outperformance, or let me say it
Speaker 1: this way, all of the decline in Bitcoin dominance is
Speaker 1: due to the outperformance of ETH and XRP.
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Speaker 3: welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward,
Speaker 3: and joining me today is Caleb Franzen, who is the
Speaker 3: founder of Cubic Analytics. Caleb, great to have you back.
Speaker 2: On Tony's been tradition.
Speaker 1: Man, Every like four to six weeks we rip another
Speaker 1: one of these and they're always a blast.
Speaker 2: So really looking forward to this absolutely. Man.
Speaker 3: We've been talking since the beginning of the bitcoin bull market,
Speaker 3: like twenty twenty three, right, and we've ran up over
Speaker 3: the past couple of years, and it seems like this
Speaker 3: is the year of the.
Speaker 2: Blow off top.
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's recent move and do
Speaker 3: you see a blow off top coming by the end
Speaker 3: of the year.
Speaker 1: This move definitely happened a lot faster than I expected.
Speaker 1: I know, I was very defensive, if not leaning slightly
Speaker 1: bearish during March and April, but I laid out all
Speaker 1: the criteria right I said, if we get back above
Speaker 1: the twenty one, the fifty five, and the two hundred
Speaker 1: day moving average, then I'm gonna flip super bullish again.
Speaker 1: And that was right around eighty five to eighty six thousand,
Speaker 1: so obviously getting to one hundred and twenty three k
Speaker 1: I think, you know, one of my superpowers as an investor,
Speaker 1: as an analyst is being able to change my mind
Speaker 1: based on objective facts, objective reality, so we can fight
Speaker 1: trends or we can align with them. And thankfully, we've
Speaker 1: broadly been in a super strong uptrend, at least for
Speaker 1: bitcoin for quite some time now, so it's been very
Speaker 1: easy to be bullish to have our upside price targets.
Speaker 1: I've been talking basically since the second half of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three saying that my cycle price target is one
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five thousand for bitcoin, and it's been
Speaker 1: slow and steady. We've, you know, just keep making these
Speaker 1: higher highs and higher lows, but we're getting closer and
Speaker 1: closer month after month after month. Right, So look, I
Speaker 1: think this this latest breakout, you know, it's it's been
Speaker 1: exactly what we could have hoped for in a lot
Speaker 1: of ways. I think the funny thing about it, oddly enough,
Speaker 1: is like a lot of investors don't seem too excited
Speaker 1: or too grateful, right, It's just like, yeah, like bitcoin's that,
Speaker 1: you know, one hundred and eighteen thousand, one hundred and
Speaker 1: nineteen thousand. You know, we're getting I'm still getting into
Speaker 1: debates on Twitter spaces people talking about how bitcoin is
Speaker 1: a Ponzi scheme. It's just like they've lost a plot
Speaker 1: so much and they refuse to actually look at what's
Speaker 1: really taking place here in this ecosystem.
Speaker 2: But that's their loss, not ours.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, put and you know you mentioned you you
Speaker 3: reserve the right to change your mind, and we have
Speaker 3: to because the data can change, right, like for example,
Speaker 3: black Swan events happen. I would consider the tariff crash
Speaker 3: that took place in Q one into Q two eight
Speaker 3: blocks one event. No one saw that coming, right, and
Speaker 3: that kind of changed the whole dynamic, So you have
Speaker 3: to adjust your timelines and like you said, look at
Speaker 3: the moving averages and so forth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I think that's one of the things, right,
Speaker 1: I say it all the time. It's okay to be wrong,
Speaker 1: it's just not okay to stay wrong. So you have
Speaker 1: to have a rules based system to change and modify
Speaker 1: your perspectives based on actual reality. And so for me,
Speaker 1: using stuff like moving averages, the Williams percent are looking
Speaker 1: at bullish, embarrassed, our side divergences. That's my bread and butter, right,
Speaker 1: and so I'm going to keep kind of looking at
Speaker 1: those data points and kind of letting things carry from there.
Speaker 1: I think one of the amazing things that we've actually
Speaker 1: been seeing in this market for the entire ecosystem is
Speaker 1: the fact that we continue to see stable coin market
Speaker 1: cap rising, rising, rising, but at the same time we're
Speaker 1: actually seeing stable coin dominance falling really drastically. I brought
Speaker 1: some charts with me, but I just want to explain
Speaker 1: this and kind of set it up.
Speaker 2: A little bit.
Speaker 1: What that's telling us is that new stable coins are
Speaker 1: being issued and minted, but that investors are not keeping
Speaker 1: them in stable coins. They're being automatically deployed into let's
Speaker 1: call them speculative assets, basically banking on more upside in
Speaker 1: this market. So let's go ahead and talk about it, right.
Speaker 1: This is the chart right here. This is looking at
Speaker 1: US plus USDC in green, so that's total market cap,
Speaker 1: and then their respective dominance combined in blue. And so obviously,
Speaker 1: basically since that April level, which was basically the peak
Speaker 1: of the tariff scare, if you will, we've seen really
Speaker 1: good things take place. Let's go ahead and prove it
Speaker 1: if we look at that same exact chart and then
Speaker 1: add on total crypto market cap excluding stable coins. Let's
Speaker 1: look at when that peak actually occurred, right, It was
Speaker 1: at the local lows in the total crypto market, and
Speaker 1: really good things have taken place. The other thing you'll
Speaker 1: notice here right is stable coin dominance is actually making
Speaker 1: lower lows right here right now. So that's telling us
Speaker 1: that this recent down trend in stable cooin dominance is
Speaker 1: really intact. And obviously a down trend in stable coin
Speaker 1: dominance is exactly what we want to see here as investors.
Speaker 3: So yeah, absolutely, you mentioned tether dominance falling right, staple
Speaker 3: cooin dominance falling, but also bigcoin dominance has been falling, right,
Speaker 3: and that correlates with these rallies that we've seen historically.
Speaker 2: It has.
Speaker 1: So I actually brought two awesome charts just to talk
Speaker 1: about this exact topic, even though we didn't plan this ahead, Tony,
Speaker 1: But look, this is bitcoin dominance right, And so obviously
Speaker 1: one of the really interesting things about this recent acceleration
Speaker 1: to the upside in the overall crypto ecosystem is the
Speaker 1: fact that bitcoin dominance is falling here. And so I think,
Speaker 1: based on this kind of dynamic, my general target is
Speaker 1: we're probably going to return right back to the sixty
Speaker 1: two percent level for bitcoin dominance. Can we fall lower
Speaker 1: than there? Absolutely, could we rebound on that level. That's
Speaker 1: actually my expectation, because we could see former resistance has
Speaker 1: already flipped into support. So again, if we're going to
Speaker 1: be objective, we need to recognize that this is valid
Speaker 1: potential support here, and that would generally be my expectation.
Speaker 1: The interesting thing that I wanted to show here, Tony
Speaker 1: is if we look at this chart, which is combining
Speaker 1: the dominance of bitcoin ethereum and XRP. The interesting thing here,
Speaker 1: obviously this chart has not fallen nearly as much as
Speaker 1: bitcoin dominance had, and so we think, what is the
Speaker 1: implication here, what is the discrepancy between these two charts
Speaker 1: actually telling us. It's telling us that all of the outperformance,
Speaker 1: or let me say it this way, all of the
Speaker 1: decline in bitcoin dominance is due to the outperformance of
Speaker 1: Eth and XRP, and so for a lot of investors
Speaker 1: that's actually really good news. But for a lot of
Speaker 1: investors who are really far out onto the risk curve
Speaker 1: and what we could consider small cap all coins, this
Speaker 1: decline in bitcoin dominance is not actually helping them, because
Speaker 1: what we're seeing is that almost all of the outperformance
Speaker 1: in the all coin ecosystem is really just coming from
Speaker 1: ethan XRP.
Speaker 3: H Wow, that is interesting. I've never looked at the
Speaker 3: combined dominance like this, and that is very fascinating that
Speaker 3: those two assets are doing a lot of the damage,
Speaker 3: so to speak.
Speaker 1: Well, look, I always try to come with some unique
Speaker 1: alpha here, Tony. So it's literally my job to find
Speaker 1: these crazy little correlations and market dynamics and try to
Speaker 1: bring them to as many people as possible.
Speaker 2: So, you know, hopefully that's what we're doing here today.
Speaker 3: Can we look at a bitcoin chart and if you
Speaker 3: can tell us what you're looking at, you know, could
Speaker 3: this move right now lead us to a local top
Speaker 3: and then a continuation into a blow off top into
Speaker 3: Q four.
Speaker 2: So perfect, let's do it.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and talk about my actual targets here
Speaker 1: for bitcoin based on this recent breakout. First of all,
Speaker 1: I want to draw look, I use very simple methodologies here, right,
Speaker 1: We're basically just going to be using a Fibonacci extension
Speaker 1: in logarithmic scale. I'm going to be taking that Fibonacci
Speaker 1: from the January of twenty twenty five highs, so those
Speaker 1: April seventh lows, and I'm going to make sure that
Speaker 1: I have my Fibonacci levels based on logarithmic scale, not linear,
Speaker 1: because Bitcoin is in a logarithmic uptrend, and so based
Speaker 1: on that alone, that one sixty one point eight percent
Speaker 1: extension gets us to one hundred and thirty eight thousand.
Speaker 1: You'll also notice that that is also basically equivalent to
Speaker 1: the measured move of this bullflag breakout that we've just achieved.
Speaker 1: You might be saying, well, Caleb, this just looks like
Speaker 1: a lot of hindsight bias.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: I was talking about this regression bullflag in real time
Speaker 1: as we were forming it, before we even broke out.
Speaker 1: So this has been a very consistent message that I've
Speaker 1: been sharing both on x on substack with premium members
Speaker 1: of Cubic Analytics, on my live stream, so on and
Speaker 1: so forth. Now, let's just add one more target to
Speaker 1: the upside, and we'll look at the two hundred and
Speaker 1: sixty one pointy percent extension in logrewdthmic scale. That gets
Speaker 1: us to two hundred and two thousand, six hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty roughly. And so you know, again the cycle target
Speaker 1: that I've been talking about has been at minimum one
Speaker 1: seventy five, and that's by basically doing that same exact
Speaker 1: stylistic approach, drawing a fibonacci from those twenty twenty one
Speaker 1: all time highs to the twenty twenty two bear market
Speaker 1: lows in log rewthmic scale, we get to.
Speaker 2: One seventy four and change.
Speaker 1: Right, So I've been saying, look, I'm willing to entertain
Speaker 1: higher upside price targets. Probably not too much higher, but
Speaker 1: it's definitely possible. And that's kind of how we get there, right,
Speaker 1: So we can look at one thirty eight to one
Speaker 1: thirty nine for the one sixty one point eight percent extension,
Speaker 1: we can look at that bullflag getting us to basically
Speaker 1: one forty seven, and then we can look at the
Speaker 1: two sixty one pointy percent that gets us to around
Speaker 1: two hundred thousand. So we're getting a lot of confluence
Speaker 1: here in terms of how these different indicators are on
Speaker 1: different timeframes are all coming together and it's just fantastic.
Speaker 3: Obviously we don't have a crystal ball. Obviously no one
Speaker 3: can call the exact top, but these are using it.
Speaker 3: You said, the Fibonacci model, And are you anticipating and
Speaker 3: this is a hard thing to answer. You know, a
Speaker 3: timeline wise that this end wraps up in Q four
Speaker 3: or it might bleed into like twenty twenty six Q.
Speaker 1: One, like you said, we don't have an answer for that, right,
Speaker 1: so we can speculate. The funny thing about it is
Speaker 1: when I first came out and shared my one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy five K cycle price target, I think that
Speaker 1: was in July or August of twenty twenty three, we're
Speaker 1: trading right around thirty thousand dollars per PTC and a
Speaker 1: lot of people are saying, is that your price target
Speaker 1: for the end of this year, which was twenty twenty three?
Speaker 1: Is that your target for twenty twenty four? And I
Speaker 1: was like, guys, it's a cycle price target. I have
Speaker 1: no idea when the cycle is going to end. If
Speaker 1: anyone else has a crystal ball, please let me know
Speaker 1: I'd love to see it.
Speaker 2: So look, I have absolutely no idea.
Speaker 1: I think there's been this whole debate about whether or
Speaker 1: not we're actually going to follow kind of that four
Speaker 1: year cycle kind of dynamic, and I've always said, like, look,
Speaker 1: you know, the four year cycle has been the easiest, simplest,
Speaker 1: and arguably one of the most effective models that we
Speaker 1: can actually use. But you know, this time really is different,
Speaker 1: and you know, we can point to a variety of
Speaker 1: different data points that show that this time is different
Speaker 1: and how last time was different than any time before.
Speaker 2: That as well.
Speaker 1: Right, so each cycle is always going to be a
Speaker 1: little bit different. The four year cycle is interesting. It
Speaker 1: gives us a really valid blueprint if you want to
Speaker 1: follow the four year cycle.
Speaker 2: Though.
Speaker 1: I think on average bitcoin peaks around sixteen to seventeen
Speaker 1: months after the having, so that basically puts us in
Speaker 1: August to September maybe October for the cycle peak.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at all.
Speaker 1: The economic data, I'm looking at the FED, who's probably
Speaker 1: going to be cutting rates in the back half of
Speaker 1: this year. I'm looking at everything taking place, and I'm saying, look,
Speaker 1: all I see are higher highs and high lows. All
Speaker 1: I see is corporate earnings on the rise. All I
Speaker 1: see is risk appetite in the stock market doing really well.
Speaker 1: All I see is bitcoin breaking out. Why am I
Speaker 1: going to try to put a limit on when the
Speaker 1: party is going to end?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: If everyone's having a good time, hot girls are showing up,
Speaker 1: all the people are coming in with new bottles of tequila,
Speaker 1: Let's keep the party going, and let's keep make sure
Speaker 1: that that the neighbors are fine. Right, And so far
Speaker 1: we still kind of have that dynamic. So I have
Speaker 1: no idea when the cycle is going to end. I
Speaker 1: have no shame in admitting that. If anyone does know
Speaker 1: when it's gonna end, please let me know.
Speaker 2: I'd love to hear it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. That is such a hard thing to
Speaker 3: answer and to predict. And like you said, we don't
Speaker 3: have a crystal ball. And I often tell people if
Speaker 3: they do have a crystal ball, just tell me the
Speaker 3: winning lottery numbers next week. Yeah, I could become a.
Speaker 2: Millionaire exactly exactly.
Speaker 3: How about you know, total all coin market? How what
Speaker 3: are you seeing on that front? Because a lot of
Speaker 3: people hold all coins, they don't necessarily hold bitcoin.
Speaker 1: I think that you know it's been no secret that
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has been leading this breakout. We've been seeing bitcoin
Speaker 1: dominance pull back, but from a structural perspective, bitcoin itself
Speaker 1: is what's really leading the way here this cycle, right.
Speaker 1: And so what's really interesting about this chart is we're
Speaker 1: looking at total crypto market cap again excluding USDT plus USDC, right,
Speaker 1: so we're basically just looking at the actual uh cryptocurrency
Speaker 1: ecosystem excluding stable coins. What's interesting about this is it
Speaker 1: has actually yet to make new cycle highs. And so
Speaker 1: when we're looking at Bitcoin's price structure, which again looks
Speaker 1: like this, when we achieve this breakout, really good things
Speaker 1: have happened. We've gone from one hundred and twenty three thousand,
Speaker 1: excuse me, from one hundred and twelve thousand to one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty three thousand in a.
Speaker 2: Matter of days.
Speaker 1: Right, And so as we're looking at the total crypto ecosystem, now,
Speaker 1: if this is actually going to follow in the footsteps
Speaker 1: of bitcoin itself, then we should see this breakout. We
Speaker 1: should have it stick the landing, we should achieve that extension.
Speaker 1: Maybe we kind of produce one of those classic breakout
Speaker 1: retest rebound types of setups where we get some extension
Speaker 1: up into this range, we come back in, we retest
Speaker 1: this green level, and then we rebound again to new
Speaker 1: cycle highs. I also want to highlight here we're looking
Speaker 1: at the twenty one, the fifty five, and the two
Speaker 1: hundred day exponential moving average. We have clear proof right here,
Speaker 1: right now that we have a full bullish formation where
Speaker 1: price is above the twenty one, the twenty one is
Speaker 1: above the fifty five, the fifty five is above the
Speaker 1: two hundred. All three of those emas have a positive
Speaker 1: and rising slope. That's very different than the dynamic that
Speaker 1: was occurring here when we were in a down trend.
Speaker 1: That's very different than the dynamic that was taking place
Speaker 1: in the middle of last year as well. It's much
Speaker 1: more reminiscent of the dynamic that was taking place in
Speaker 1: Q four of last year. It's much more representative of
Speaker 1: the dynamic that was taking place at the end of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three in the beginning of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: So what we have here statistically is an uptrend. And again,
Speaker 1: as investors, we now have a choice. We can acknowledge
Speaker 1: that this uptrend exists, it is intact, and we have
Speaker 1: a choice. We can align with it or we can
Speaker 1: fight this uptrend, and I'm gonna choose to align with
Speaker 1: it every single time. And what this is telling me
Speaker 1: is that whether or not Bitcoin outperforms everything else, whether
Speaker 1: or not Ethereum keeps outperforming BPC, you know.
Speaker 2: Let's see.
Speaker 1: All I know though, is that good things should happen
Speaker 1: for the ecosystem as a whole. And we don't really
Speaker 1: need to overthink this too much. We just need to
Speaker 1: have the exposure.
Speaker 2: That's it.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, So we are certainly in bull market territory, and
Speaker 3: bitcoin of course leads to market, so we can expect
Speaker 3: to see that fallow Bitcoin as a continues to move.
Speaker 1: Up exactly, Tony, I actually forgot. I have another chart
Speaker 1: on this as well, taking it kind of a step further.
Speaker 1: This is actually looking at total three excluding stable coins.
Speaker 1: So obviously total three is looking at total crypto market
Speaker 1: cap excluding Bitcoin and excluding ethereum, and then manually I'm taking.
Speaker 2: Out USDT and USDC.
Speaker 1: So obviously this is not back at those cycle highs yet, right,
Speaker 1: but we have this kind of intermediate term base here
Speaker 1: where we're also trying to achieve that structural breakout and
Speaker 1: basically make new six month highs guys. Objectively, there's nothing
Speaker 1: bearish whatsoever about making new six month highs, new six
Speaker 1: month highs.
Speaker 2: In fact, new highs.
Speaker 1: On any timeframe is representative of an uptrend during that timeframe.
Speaker 1: So if we're making new six month highs, that's telling
Speaker 1: us we're in a six month uptrend basically. So you know, again,
Speaker 1: really good things should take place here. And if we
Speaker 1: do achieve this breakout, if we stick this landing, then
Speaker 1: the assumption here, the bias should be that we should
Speaker 1: return back to these cycle highs. So we should go
Speaker 1: from basically six excuse me, we should go from basically
Speaker 1: seven hundred and fifty billion to almost one trillion in total,
Speaker 1: three minus stable coins. And I think, you know, for
Speaker 1: a lot of investors, that's great news, right, whether or
Speaker 1: not those all coins do outperform Bitcoin, whether or not
Speaker 1: they do outperform Ethereum or XRP, it's just telling us, look,
Speaker 1: we're in an environment where a rising tide is going
Speaker 1: to lift all boats, and things should go pretty well from.
Speaker 2: Here, absolutely.
Speaker 3: And I like to remind people just look at what
Speaker 3: happened in Q four of twenty twenty four, because you know,
Speaker 3: sometimes people they have short memories and it's almost like
Speaker 3: what have you done for me lately? And it's like
Speaker 3: when did you buy did you not buy the bloody
Speaker 3: bear market? And you've been riding to wave up right
Speaker 3: with bitcoin, but unfortunately some people don't. But it's like, hey,
Speaker 3: what we experience in Q four twenty twenty four, We're
Speaker 3: gonna see that plus more.
Speaker 1: I hope, so you know, I mean, look what, I'm
Speaker 1: always going to reserve my right to change my mind
Speaker 1: if we see bitcoin or total minus USDT minus USDC
Speaker 1: fall below those moving averages very similar to what was
Speaker 1: occurring in February and March of this year. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: sound a lot more defensive when I'm on your podcast
Speaker 1: next time if everything.
Speaker 2: Is kind of like up that way.
Speaker 1: But so long as we have this dynamic right here
Speaker 1: right now, in my opinion, that's irresponsible to be bearish.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at the sign behind you. We're guys,
Speaker 1: we're trading at one hundred and nineteen thy two hundred and.
Speaker 2: Five for bitcoin.
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, let's be let's let's show some
Speaker 1: gratitude and excitement here, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is what we've been hoping for for
Speaker 2: a long time.
Speaker 3: Absolutely well, put, let's look at the individual all coins
Speaker 3: such as etherorem it's it's been pumping this morning. What
Speaker 3: are you seeing there?
Speaker 1: So the message that I've been sharing with premium members
Speaker 1: of Cubic Analytics is this structure here for eth BTC.
Speaker 1: So you'll notice we are now making new multi month
Speaker 1: highs on ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
Speaker 2: This is a massive, massive breakout here.
Speaker 1: And am I going to interpret this as oh, Ethereum
Speaker 1: is now outperforming Bitcoin, so I'm gonna sell my bitcoin
Speaker 1: and rotate that into ethereum. I'm not going to do
Speaker 1: that because to me, this still looks like a much
Speaker 1: longer downtrend right But it does tell me that investors,
Speaker 1: if they're looking to reallocate new care apital into the
Speaker 1: market right here, right now, risk is more favorable towards
Speaker 1: Ethereum than it is for Bitcoin. And as someone who
Speaker 1: leans towards being much more of a bitcoiner than a
Speaker 1: crypto guy, you know, I'm willing to admit that and
Speaker 1: acknowledge that. But here's why the strongest parts of the
Speaker 1: bull market occur when eth is outperforming Bitcoin. The strongest
Speaker 1: parts of a bull market occur when bitcoin dominance is falling.
Speaker 1: So just because the majority of my portfolio, seventy percent
Speaker 1: of my net worth and more is in bitcoin, I
Speaker 1: own zero ethereum, I own zero XRP, but I am
Speaker 1: rooting for Eth to outperform bitcoin. I am rooting for
Speaker 1: XRP the outperform bitcoin because that tells me that my
Speaker 1: bitcoin is also going up tremendously.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: And so look, now that we've achieved this breakout in
Speaker 1: ETH PTC, the message I've been sharing with premium members
Speaker 1: of Cubic Analytics, I'm happy to bring the off with
Speaker 1: your audience, Tony, is that we should probably go back
Speaker 1: to the year to date highs here from January of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. So you know, that's pretty juicy upside
Speaker 1: here on a relative basis, I think we're talking basically
Speaker 1: about thirty five forty percent basically to the upside. And look,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Eth on an absolute basis relative to
Speaker 1: the US dollar.
Speaker 2: I think if we want to look at.
Speaker 1: The trajectory of ETH right here, right now, let's draw
Speaker 1: a Fibonacci from basically those December of twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: highs to the April seventh lows, and we're going to
Speaker 1: keep this actually in linear scale, because obviously this has
Speaker 1: not gone through some logarithmic function over the last four years, right,
Speaker 1: This has really just been this massive long term consolidation
Speaker 1: phase here.
Speaker 2: But that one.
Speaker 1: Sixty one point eight percent target is measured at basically
Speaker 1: five thousand, eight hundred on the price of ethereum. I
Speaker 1: don't know anybody in their right mind would be disappointed
Speaker 1: if ethereum was trading at five thy eight hundred. The
Speaker 1: really interesting thing about this, guys, if we add on
Speaker 1: one additional layer here and also put a Fibonacci on
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty one highs to the twenty twenty two lows,
Speaker 1: that one hundred and twenty three point six percent level
Speaker 1: is trading at the exact same price.
Speaker 2: So what does that tell us?
Speaker 1: It means we have a lot of confluence at fifty
Speaker 1: eight hundred as an actual price target. We don't just
Speaker 1: have one data point, we have two data points using
Speaker 1: two different timeframes, but the same indicator. And so look,
Speaker 1: you know, that's a really speculative bet that we're.
Speaker 2: Going to get the fifty eight hundred on eath.
Speaker 1: But if we keep seeing market dynamics like we've been
Speaker 1: seeing over the course of the past three months. I
Speaker 1: don't know how you could call that unreasonable? Is it?
Speaker 2: Is it bold? Absolutely, I'm trying to be bold.
Speaker 1: But I also think that based on actual objective data,
Speaker 1: it's a valid price target.
Speaker 3: I'm an ETH holder, so I would be very happy
Speaker 3: with that. I'm curious, do you think there's potential now?
Speaker 3: And it may be a low probability of even going higher,
Speaker 3: touching higher levels on the Fiminacci.
Speaker 1: Model, probably, But you know, maybe your audience has kind
Speaker 1: of gotten a flavor for how I do things. I
Speaker 1: like to really take things one step at a time, Right,
Speaker 1: So let's first get the fifty eight hundred if and
Speaker 1: when we get there, let's all pat ourselves on the back,
Speaker 1: let's pop a bottle of champagne, and then we'll start
Speaker 1: to look at new price targets. Right, But for right now,
Speaker 1: all I'm comfortable to say is fifty eight hundred. It's
Speaker 1: also why I look, you know, it's also why I'm
Speaker 1: only saying let's get back to those year to date
Speaker 1: highs for e f BTC. You know that even still
Speaker 1: feels very bold in and of itself, right, So again,
Speaker 1: I just want to take these things one step at
Speaker 1: a time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, and great perspective you shared on you know,
Speaker 3: being primarily a Bitcoin holder, but rooting for the other
Speaker 3: all coins and looking at how the market is moving overall.
Speaker 3: What about XRP.
Speaker 1: What do you got there, dude, I got some good
Speaker 1: stuff on XRP. Rather, I know, I know you and
Speaker 1: your audience are gonna are going.
Speaker 2: To absolutely love this.
Speaker 1: So the message that I've been sharing with premium members
Speaker 1: of Cubic Analytics is we were, you know, on the
Speaker 1: way towards producing this higher low here, which was very
Speaker 1: different than the series of lower lows, right, So objectively,
Speaker 1: that's a trend change. And this overall price action, you know,
Speaker 1: I know, we basically did nothing for about seven months
Speaker 1: on the aggregate, but you know, this was a really
Speaker 1: strong consolidation when the rest of the all coin eco
Speaker 1: system was really bleeding out right, And so the fact
Speaker 1: that this really just had a lot of that sideways
Speaker 1: price action, sellers were really getting exhausted, right, And so
Speaker 1: not only did those sellers get exhausted, but then the
Speaker 1: buyer started to really come back into control. The thing
Speaker 1: that we're looking at here is the anchored volume weighted
Speaker 1: average price from those year to date highs which were
Speaker 1: obviously new multi year highs. And look, I told premium
Speaker 1: members of Cubic Analytics, I'm not sure what's going to
Speaker 1: happen when we get to this level. We were trading
Speaker 1: back down here at the time. I acknowledge though that
Speaker 1: every time we've retested it, it's acted as resistance since.
Speaker 2: Those all time highs.
Speaker 1: So what I told them was if we break and
Speaker 1: stay above it, what is that telling us. It's telling
Speaker 1: us a clear character shift in XRP going from this
Speaker 1: consolidation phase to potentially the next leg of an uptrend.
Speaker 2: And so what have we seen.
Speaker 1: We got that breakout at basically two dollars and fifty cents,
Speaker 1: and we've already gotten to three very quickly, just in
Speaker 1: less than a week, right, So clearly that change of
Speaker 1: character has come back into the market now and is
Speaker 1: showing us really good things for XRP. So, you know,
Speaker 1: I think one of the amazing things about this particular
Speaker 1: indicator and the strategy that we're using here is so
Speaker 1: long as we stay above this anchored volume weighted average price,
Speaker 1: which right now is trading at two dollars and fifty
Speaker 1: six cents, is if we stay above there you have
Speaker 1: to be bullish on XRP. If we fall below there,
Speaker 1: you can think about trimming or reducing some exposure, or
Speaker 1: getting stopped out, shifting into more of a defensive stance,
Speaker 1: slowing down your DCA schedule, whatever the case is. Right,
Speaker 1: it's going to depend on your individual case.
Speaker 2: But if we stay above.
Speaker 1: That anchor volume weighted average price, which we are, then
Speaker 1: you have to be bullish, right And so I think
Speaker 1: that's again it's a way to have a bias, to
Speaker 1: recognize what the trend is, and to exercise that trend
Speaker 1: into your bias, and then be willing to change your
Speaker 1: mind if and when the trend itself does change. But
Speaker 1: right now it's telling us, hey, look we're in this
Speaker 1: really strong enuprend. You've got to stay long.
Speaker 3: I think what's the saying to trend is your friend
Speaker 3: until it changes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, or like until the end or something like that. Right,
Speaker 1: So that's basically it.
Speaker 3: As far as price targets, let's say you do a
Speaker 3: Fibonacci model on it. What are you seeing as far
Speaker 3: as maybe a next local top.
Speaker 1: That's a really good question that I was not prepared for, Tony.
Speaker 1: So this is why I love coming onto your podcast,
Speaker 1: because you'll ask me really challenging, good questions.
Speaker 2: So what I would do on this?
Speaker 1: Maybe I can actually even share my my trading view
Speaker 1: screen on this.
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, I can. Perfect.
Speaker 1: So let's do this live, because there's also another XRP
Speaker 1: chart that I did want to go ahead and cover,
Speaker 1: but we'll do this live. We'll do a Fibonacci from
Speaker 1: the high to the low of this consolidation, looking at
Speaker 1: the one twenty three point six and the one sixty
Speaker 1: one percent. We're doing this in linear scale, that basically
Speaker 1: gets us to three dollars and eighty cents and four
Speaker 1: dollars and fifty cents. I would argue though, that based
Speaker 1: on this massive acceleration, it does make some sense to
Speaker 1: also put these in logarithmic scale, and that modifies our
Speaker 1: price targets to four dollars and five cents and five
Speaker 1: dollars and thirty eight cents. So you know, first and
Speaker 1: foremost we're going to need to achieve a breakout out
Speaker 1: above that range. I'd also be curious to see where
Speaker 1: that sixty one point eight percent level is, because we
Speaker 1: might actually have some pretty interesting confluence here, at least
Speaker 1: in linear scale.
Speaker 2: Oh no, it's not so I don't know.
Speaker 1: It's Look, I think if you want to if you
Speaker 1: don't want to manage risk around that anchored volume weighted
Speaker 1: average price, and you want to do it from a
Speaker 1: tighter level, do it around the sixty one pointy percent,
Speaker 1: because now that raises your stop loss from two dollars
Speaker 1: and fifty six cents to two dollars and seventy two cents.
Speaker 1: But look, these would be the upside price targets here
Speaker 1: based on that analysis.
Speaker 2: Very nice.
Speaker 3: I would be very happy with five bucks around that zone.
Speaker 1: Sure, i'd be happy for you guys. Look, I own
Speaker 1: zero XRP, right, so drinks on you guys.
Speaker 3: And you know I've I've been transferring to my audience,
Speaker 3: like I'm going to liquidate all my all coins, but
Speaker 3: there's some bigcoin I'm never selling, man, Like there's some
Speaker 3: bigcoin I'm selling, but some I've said, like I'm leaving
Speaker 3: for my daughter. It's on a hardware wall. That shit
Speaker 3: is locked up. So I'm using all coins to just
Speaker 3: get more liquidity, man, and buy more of than a
Speaker 3: coin for the long term.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean, look, I have my entire wroth
Speaker 1: Ira invested in BTCL and it's the you know, I'm
Speaker 1: not sponsored by them, I have no affiliation with them.
Speaker 1: I just like their product, and it's the two x
Speaker 1: leverage spot Bitcoin ETF and I've been hovering my finger
Speaker 1: over over the cell button on that to maybe reduce
Speaker 1: anywhere from ten to twenty percent of my exposure because
Speaker 1: this has been a massive rally. And you know, I
Speaker 1: think my I think my wroth ira is up like
Speaker 1: almost three hundred percent year over year, so you know,
Speaker 1: the returns are coming in and it's our job now.
Speaker 1: As you know, look in a bull market, everyone feels smart,
Speaker 1: everyone sounds smart. Right, It's easy to make money in
Speaker 1: a bowl market.
Speaker 2: That's not the challenge. The hard part is keeping the
Speaker 2: money right. So it's it's a lot of fun. We're
Speaker 2: having a great time.
Speaker 1: It's really awesome to look at these upside price targets
Speaker 1: and imagine what our lives could look like if and
Speaker 1: when we get there. But I also think it's important
Speaker 1: to take some profits off the table. I mean, even
Speaker 1: just from a short term trading perspective, Like I was
Speaker 1: in Toshi over the last like twenty four to thirty
Speaker 1: six hours, and I was up like sixteen percent versus
Speaker 1: where I entered it yesterday, and so it's like, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take those profits, and hey it was sixteen percent,
Speaker 1: then great. You know I paid for my airbnb for
Speaker 1: the next month or two. I'm gonna pay myself, right,
Speaker 1: That's part of the game here. So I hear you
Speaker 1: on that one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: I think you had mentioned this before in previous interviews
Speaker 3: you've done. Are you a leverage trader? Are you a
Speaker 3: spot trader? Are you macro trader? How do you play
Speaker 3: this market?
Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm doing any trades, it's always going
Speaker 1: to be based on price action, technical analysis. I'll be
Speaker 1: looking at those statistical indicators. I'll be looking at price
Speaker 1: structure itself. One hundred nineteen four hundred on your board
Speaker 1: there on the back by the way.
Speaker 2: Awesome.
Speaker 1: But look, you know, I think I never touch leverage.
Speaker 1: I don't trade options from a real trading standpoint. I'm
Speaker 1: exercising a cycle thesis here, which is why I own
Speaker 1: BTCL and the roth IRA. I'll tell you, though, I
Speaker 1: was feeling like an idiot during the decline from basically
Speaker 1: January through April, though, right, you know, I was sitting
Speaker 1: on huge props and I didn't take any of it.
Speaker 1: And just look how that fun performed during that consolidation, right,
Speaker 1: because look it's a two x leverage fund. During a consolidation,
Speaker 1: you're obviously not going to do very well when bitcoin
Speaker 1: falls thirty one thirty two percent. So but look I
Speaker 1: held on, uh, and you know, I'm obviously very happy
Speaker 1: with that decision. But it's because I have a lot
Speaker 1: of conviction in bitcoin specifically, and kudos to everyone else
Speaker 1: who has a lot of conviction in other all coins.
Speaker 1: I'm not one of those people. But look, I'm rooting
Speaker 1: for everybody to do well, you know, and if you
Speaker 1: guys outperform me, I'm not going to be bitter about that.
Speaker 1: And uh, like I said, it's just drinks on you guys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And to your point, like sometimes even it's like
Speaker 3: I tell people, like, if this is still all new
Speaker 3: to you, don't try to you know, how should I
Speaker 3: put it? Don't try to chase the shiny every shiny
Speaker 3: object you see. Right, if you're making money, that is
Speaker 3: a win. Like even if your coin doesn't gets outperformed,
Speaker 3: but you still made an incredible return. Hey man, you're
Speaker 3: winning a life, right, It's better than losing and and
Speaker 3: not having that money, so you got to be thankful
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree, Tony. I brought another XRP chart.
Speaker 1: Do you mind if I shared with you guys?
Speaker 3: Absolutely?
Speaker 2: Okay, let's do it here.
Speaker 1: You guys probably saw it when we were looking at
Speaker 1: the actual trading view chart. But I have another piece
Speaker 1: of analysis looking at the relationship between the twenty one,
Speaker 1: the thirty four, and the fifty five day EMA. So
Speaker 1: if you guys are looking at XRP and thinking, I
Speaker 1: want to get more exposure, how can I do that
Speaker 1: using technical analysis? How can I do that using statistical indicators?
Speaker 1: I think these three emas are providing a really interesting
Speaker 1: opportunity because, as we can see, we're seeing a massive
Speaker 1: acceleration in those emas. We're seeing the price of XRP
Speaker 1: trading above all three of them. The twenty one is
Speaker 1: above the fifty five, the fifty excuse me, the twenty
Speaker 1: one is above the thirty four. The thirty four is
Speaker 1: above the fifty five. So this is a really good sign.
Speaker 1: The thing that I want to highlight here is look
Speaker 1: at the massive acceleration that occurred during that Q four thrust.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: We basically went from forty cents all the way up
Speaker 1: to basically three dollars. Let's just pick with some round numbers.
Speaker 1: We came back and consolidated into the twenty one and
Speaker 1: the thirty four day EMA. That was dynamic support which
Speaker 1: produced new highs here. So basically, I'm telling you guys,
Speaker 1: you had an opportunity to get long basically around two
Speaker 1: dollars and ride this back up to three dollars and
Speaker 1: forty cents. Not a bad trade from a statistical perspective.
Speaker 1: Without rushing to get the exposure. You were actually using
Speaker 1: a proven methodology. And so as we're seeing these emas
Speaker 1: slope and trends significantly higher here, it's telling us, look,
Speaker 1: we might not have that opportunity right now. It might
Speaker 1: not come next week, maybe it comes, you know, sometime
Speaker 1: in earlier mid August. But if and when we do
Speaker 1: retest the twenty one, the thirty four and the fifty
Speaker 1: five day EMA, we now have three levels where we
Speaker 1: can dca and get some exposure with very easy invalidation.
Speaker 1: If we fall below those emas, you can trim that
Speaker 1: new exposure the same way that you would have gotten
Speaker 1: out right here and avoided this decline from basically two
Speaker 1: dollars and sixty cents all the way down to.
Speaker 2: A dollar earned sixty cents, right.
Speaker 1: So you know, obviously if you sat through that to today,
Speaker 1: you're still very happy with yourself. But maybe you weren't
Speaker 1: sleeping very well at night during this drawdown, right, I
Speaker 1: don't know. So this is where using these statistical indicators,
Speaker 1: these dynamic levels, is going to keep us on the
Speaker 1: right side. So what I would say is if and
Speaker 1: when we come back and retest those levels, I think
Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense to get some exposure.
Speaker 3: Again, rookie, question, which one of those moving averages you
Speaker 3: either think is the most important or you know, how
Speaker 3: would you list them? As far as order, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: They're all kind of significant.
Speaker 1: It's going to depend on the timeframe that you're taking
Speaker 1: the trade, right, So you know, I think usually the
Speaker 1: shortest ema that I'll use is about thirteen days. And
Speaker 1: you might even be looking like Caleb, why are you
Speaker 1: using the twenty one to thirty four and the fifty five?
Speaker 1: I like to use Fibonacci numbers, so those are all,
Speaker 1: you know, within the sequence of the Fibonacci Fibonacci number range, right,
Speaker 1: So sometimes I'll use the thirteen and the twenty one
Speaker 1: and the thirty four. Sometimes I'll really just use the
Speaker 1: twenty one, the fifty five and the two hundre. Obviously,
Speaker 1: two hundred is not a Fibonacci number, but it's probably
Speaker 1: one of the most important moving averages that I use.
Speaker 1: But it really just depends on your range, right, But
Speaker 1: I think that's the beautiful thing here, right, is we're
Speaker 1: looking at those three levels twenty one, thirty four, and
Speaker 1: fifty five and saying, look, we can take marginal exposure
Speaker 1: every time we retest those levels to exercise a thesis
Speaker 1: or an outlook based on a short, medium, or longer
Speaker 1: term timeframe, right, And in this case, we're looking at
Speaker 1: really short short and not as short time frames because
Speaker 1: we're using the twenty one to the thirty four and
Speaker 1: the fifty five. These are obviously very still very short
Speaker 1: term levels. But it's it's all gonna come down to
Speaker 1: your time frame.
Speaker 3: Let's talk Solana and what you're seeing on that.
Speaker 2: Front, dude.
Speaker 1: I actually did not bring a Solana chart with me,
Speaker 1: but here's what I will say. Let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: look at bank because I think bank is basically uh
Speaker 1: sole beta if you will, right, and it's obviously kind
Speaker 1: of led on this massive breakout move here.
Speaker 2: We're using a very similar kind.
Speaker 1: Of strategy as that XRP chart with the anchored volume
Speaker 1: weighted average price from those Q four highs of last year.
Speaker 1: We've achieved that breakout very similar to what XRP has
Speaker 1: been doing. We should probably expect good things to happen
Speaker 1: to Bonks so long as it stays above this range.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're already about twenty five percent above the
Speaker 1: anchored volume weighted average price since we broke above it.
Speaker 1: This would not be happening if Solana was struggling, right
Speaker 1: because obviously this is probably one of the leading aut
Speaker 1: coins on the Solona ecosystem. I think it's the second
Speaker 1: largest after Trump and then fark coin is up there.
Speaker 1: So you know, I mean, these are these are the
Speaker 1: three Solana ecosystem tokens, and you can basically exercise your
Speaker 1: thesis on Solana right here.
Speaker 3: In my opinion, Oh for sure, I'm not a big
Speaker 3: fan of meme coins, but you know, it is what
Speaker 3: it is. It's in the market, and unfortunately, you know,
Speaker 3: we just got to I don't know, deal with it.
Speaker 1: Look, you know, I'm also not a fan of them.
Speaker 1: It's basically a massive game of how potato. And so
Speaker 1: for me, as someone who just trades based on technicals,
Speaker 1: I really have to put my pride, my ego aside
Speaker 1: and just look at this and say, hey, is there
Speaker 1: money to make here? And is the way to do
Speaker 1: Is there a way to do it while controlling and
Speaker 1: managing risk? And I think for all of the talk
Speaker 1: around utility and the tech objectively, we have really not
Speaker 1: seen those tokens perform very well.
Speaker 2: The cycle.
Speaker 1: What's happening to Avalanche, what's happening to Cardono, what's happening
Speaker 1: to light coin?
Speaker 2: The list goes on and on and on and on.
Speaker 2: But when we look at a lot.
Speaker 1: Of these Central Exchange listed meme coins, they're outperforming all
Speaker 1: of the tech, utility and DeFi tokens, you know, ninety
Speaker 1: five ninety eight percent of them.
Speaker 2: And that's signal there, right.
Speaker 1: So if we want to be in the fastest horse
Speaker 1: in the race from a trading perspective, and we can
Speaker 1: find attractive risk adjusted opportunities for us, then you have
Speaker 1: to take those swings. And so for me personally, I've
Speaker 1: actually been trading a lot of meme coins.
Speaker 2: I think probably this.
Speaker 1: Year alone, I've almost exclusively focused on trading meme when
Speaker 1: I am trading, and so obviously during during Q one,
Speaker 1: I gave back a lot of significant profits because I
Speaker 1: made a bunch in Q four and I've been riding
Speaker 1: the way back up again here over the last month
Speaker 1: or so and it's been a great time.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I think there's a distinguished well we have
Speaker 3: to give the nuance there. You can trade it. I
Speaker 3: think if you know what you're doing, like you right,
Speaker 3: you obviously know what you're doing. But there's some people
Speaker 3: who come in and they buy this random meme coin
Speaker 3: that was started last week, right unpumped dot fun And
Speaker 3: that's the part I don't like. But there's established meme
Speaker 3: coins like those like Pepe, Lake Bank and so forth,
Speaker 3: have a community, have been around for a while, weren't
Speaker 3: started last week or last month, and you know, those
Speaker 3: are the riskier ones that go out further into risk
Speaker 3: curve exactly.
Speaker 1: I mean, you hit the nail on the head here.
Speaker 1: It's all about risk adjusted opportunities. And so when we're
Speaker 1: looking at these things that are you know, very likely
Speaker 1: rug pull opportunities that are being listed yesterday or two
Speaker 1: days ago, whatever the case is.
Speaker 2: Yes, you can make a lot of.
Speaker 1: Money on them, but I would definitely urge a lot
Speaker 1: of investors to stay away from those one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: And that's why even just for me, right, I'm I'm
Speaker 1: trading only the ones that are listed on coinbase, and
Speaker 1: you know they're going to be really high beata to
Speaker 1: the rest of the market. So when the market is
Speaker 1: doing well, they'll do really well. When the market is
Speaker 1: doing poorly, they'll do really poorly. And I'm totally okay
Speaker 1: with taking that risk because I'm going to control and
Speaker 1: manage that risk and get stopped out.
Speaker 2: At a certain point.
Speaker 1: So you know, we're all going to have a different
Speaker 1: level and that's what it comes down to. But look,
Speaker 1: I mean, this market is just crushing it right now, Tony.
Speaker 1: I actually brought another exclusive study that I haven't shared
Speaker 1: anywhere else.
Speaker 2: I have to boce with you guys. Are you ready
Speaker 2: for this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see it, man.
Speaker 2: Okay, So what we're looking at here is others.
Speaker 1: This is total crypto market cap excluding the top ten coins.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: What I've done here is I've added on the one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty day Williams percent are oscillator one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty days. I'll typically use one twenty because it
Speaker 1: gets us to a third of the year. So you
Speaker 1: might be looking at one fifty and say it's a
Speaker 1: little bit arbitrary, but I still think it gives us
Speaker 1: a really effective signal here. If we're just going to
Speaker 1: focus from a statistical kind of blindness, right, if we're
Speaker 1: only focusing on statistics, what is this signal telling us?
Speaker 1: How effective has it been in the past. So what
Speaker 1: I'm highlighting here is a signal that literally just flashed
Speaker 1: this weekend on Sunday, and we're obviously continuing to get
Speaker 1: really strong followed through since then. But what we're looking
Speaker 1: at is each time the one hundred and fifty excuse me,
Speaker 1: each time the one hundred and fifty day Williams percent
Speaker 1: our oscillator has gone from over sold, which is below
Speaker 1: the lower bound here, to overbought, which is above the
Speaker 1: upper bound here. So we're getting this full oscillation from
Speaker 1: oversold to overbought. Essentially, what we're looking at here are
Speaker 1: really strong statistical momentum thrusts. When we're seeing a momentum thrust,
Speaker 1: what is that it's telling us that there is an
Speaker 1: overwhelming amount of demand coming into the market. Let's think
Speaker 1: about what that means, guys, Is it bearish if there's
Speaker 1: an overwhelming amount of demand?
Speaker 2: Probably not.
Speaker 1: That means a lot of investors are putting their money
Speaker 1: where their mouth is and speculating to the upside for writer,
Speaker 1: for wrong, but they are doing it. Investors are putting
Speaker 1: their money where their mouth is. And so what has
Speaker 1: actually taken place in others after this signal is flashed
Speaker 1: each time? If we look at the signal that occurred
Speaker 1: in the second half of twenty and twenty three, it
Speaker 1: was a little bit slow for about a few months,
Speaker 1: and then we really have this massive uptrend that took place.
Speaker 1: If we look at the second signal that occurred in
Speaker 1: November of twenty twenty four, just after the election, we
Speaker 1: saw really fast and significant upside in a very short.
Speaker 2: Term amount of time.
Speaker 1: So I don't know if this current signal is going
Speaker 1: to be much more like Q four of last year
Speaker 1: or the second half of twenty twenty three. All I
Speaker 1: do know is that what this signal is telling us
Speaker 1: objectively from a statistical perspective, is that our bias should continue.
Speaker 2: To be to the upside.
Speaker 1: So I want to really kind of package everything that
Speaker 1: we've talked about on this podcast together. Right, We're seeing
Speaker 1: Bitcoin already achieving some price targets breaking out to new highs.
Speaker 1: We're seeing total minus staable coins on the verge of
Speaker 1: making new cycle highs. We're seeing really strong market dynamics
Speaker 1: occurring for XRP and ethereum. We're seeing BTC dominance plus
Speaker 1: E dominance plus XRP dominance show a lot of strength.
Speaker 1: We're seeing others try to make that momentum thru US.
Speaker 1: We're seeing a lot of really great things coming into
Speaker 1: the market. We're seeing stable coin dominance declining. As we're
Speaker 1: looking at the preponderance of the evidence, it is telling
Speaker 1: us unequivocally, there's no question about this, guys, that our
Speaker 1: bias should be to the upside. And now the rest
Speaker 1: of the work is about managing downside. What is our
Speaker 1: risk that we're willing to take and where are we
Speaker 1: going to get stomped out? That's what the game becomes
Speaker 1: about now. But we know, without a question of it,
Speaker 1: out beyond a shadow of it doubt, that our bias
Speaker 1: needs to be to the upside. We are in an
Speaker 1: up trend. If you're not long during an up trend.
Speaker 1: You are doing investing completely wrong if you are not
Speaker 1: long during an up trend. That is what we live
Speaker 1: for as traders and investors. We don't have a lot
Speaker 1: of access to these exotic instruments and securities and all
Speaker 1: this other stuff. We want to be on the left
Speaker 1: curve of this and say, look, we are in an
Speaker 1: up trend. We have to participate, and that means we
Speaker 1: need to be long and then focus on managing.
Speaker 3: Risk absolutely well. Put and I love that chart, by
Speaker 3: the way, the others excluding the top ten that I
Speaker 3: know a lot of people are going to be interested
Speaker 3: in that because they hold all coins that are you know,
Speaker 3: eleven to one hundred in that zone or eleven to
Speaker 3: fifty exactly. So that's definitely great to see. There's a
Speaker 3: lot of bullish signals here and the setup for the
Speaker 3: rally to continue.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, you know, the economy continues to be
Speaker 1: resilient in dynamic. It's certainly not perfect. We had industrial
Speaker 1: production numbers that came in way stronger than expectations. Today
Speaker 1: PPI came in significantly lower than expectations.
Speaker 2: CPI is a little bit of.
Speaker 1: A mixed bag, but I would generally say that disinflation
Speaker 1: is still intact and the FED isn't looking the cut
Speaker 1: rates immediately, but rate cuts are probably coming in the
Speaker 1: second half of this year, at least three months down
Speaker 1: the line. And so from that standpoint, if we still
Speaker 1: see really strong corporate earnings in the United States, which
Speaker 1: is going to give us a bid in risk assets
Speaker 1: in the stock market, I mean, it's still very clear,
Speaker 1: right a lot of crypto is just a high beta
Speaker 1: stock in a lot of ways. For right, if we're wrong,
Speaker 1: we could disagree with it. But if you look at
Speaker 1: the correlation between bitcoin and semiconductor stocks, I think it's
Speaker 1: eighty six percent over a trailing three month period. So clearly,
Speaker 1: if good things are happening fundamentally for corporate earnings and
Speaker 1: semiconductor stocks and semi conductor stocks keep going up, then
Speaker 1: probably bitcoin is going to keep doing really well also.
Speaker 1: So we have all these things continuing to fall into place,
Speaker 1: rate cuts are eventually going to be coming back into
Speaker 1: the picture here. And look a lot of people were
Speaker 1: saying that, you know, in twenty twenty four, they're saying, oh,
Speaker 1: these rate cuts are going to be bearish. Look at how
Speaker 1: the SMP five one hundred and the Nasdaq one hundred
Speaker 1: have performed since those rate cuts happened in September. Look
Speaker 1: at how Bitcoin has performed since those rate cuts happened
Speaker 1: starting last September. Obviously, they have not been bearish, but
Speaker 1: you know, when other people are making stupid decisions, it
Speaker 1: allows us to make money a lot easier. So let's
Speaker 1: keep rooting for those people to say that ray cuts
Speaker 1: are bearish.
Speaker 3: Caleb always great Alpha, great insights, my friend and everyone.
Speaker 3: Check out Caleb's ex profile, follow him, sign up for
Speaker 3: his newsletter all great information.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tony. We'll do it again soon