WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:03.960 The interesting thing here, obviously, this chart has not fallen 2 00:00:04.080 --> 00:00:06.280 nearly as much as Bitcoin dominance had, and so as 3 00:00:06.280 --> 00:00:08.320 we think, what is the implication here, what is the 4 00:00:08.640 --> 00:00:11.199 discrepancy between these two charts actually telling us. 5 00:00:11.560 --> 00:00:12.400 It's telling us. 6 00:00:12.279 --> 00:00:14.599 That all of the outperformance, or let me say it 7 00:00:14.599 --> 00:00:17.239 this way, all of the decline in Bitcoin dominance is 8 00:00:17.359 --> 00:00:20.359 due to the outperformance of ETH and XRP. 9 00:00:25.800 --> 00:00:28.480 This episode is brought to you by Treasure. Treasure makes 10 00:00:28.559 --> 00:00:31.920 beautifully crafted hardware wallets that make it easy for you 11 00:00:32.000 --> 00:00:35.640 to safely store your cryptocurrencies. I'm a big believer in 12 00:00:35.679 --> 00:00:39.119 self custody. I've been using hardware wallets for years and 13 00:00:39.200 --> 00:00:43.119 Treasure was the pioneer of hardware wallets and they started 14 00:00:43.119 --> 00:00:46.240 this journey in twenty thirteen. Their hardware wallets are open 15 00:00:46.320 --> 00:00:50.359 source and they support a variety of tokens from Bitcoin 16 00:00:50.439 --> 00:00:52.799 to the top all coins and even new coins such 17 00:00:52.799 --> 00:00:55.880 as Black Rocks, Biddle and I'm personally a user of 18 00:00:55.920 --> 00:00:58.960 the Treasure Save five. It's a beautiful device and easy 19 00:00:58.960 --> 00:01:03.119 to use. This Treasure offers a handholding service where they 20 00:01:03.119 --> 00:01:05.359 can help you on board and set up your device 21 00:01:05.680 --> 00:01:08.920 so you can speak directly to a Treasure representative who 22 00:01:08.959 --> 00:01:11.640 can hold your hand through the process. And if you 23 00:01:11.760 --> 00:01:15.159 use the code thinking Crypto all one word, you can 24 00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:18.319 get five percent off your purchase of a Treasure device. 25 00:01:18.640 --> 00:01:20.799 So to learn more about Treasure and all their great 26 00:01:20.840 --> 00:01:24.840 devices and services, visit the link in the description. Hey, folks, 27 00:01:24.879 --> 00:01:28.159 welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward, 28 00:01:28.239 --> 00:01:31.120 and joining me today is Caleb Franzen, who is the 29 00:01:31.239 --> 00:01:34.599 founder of Cubic Analytics. Caleb, great to have you back. 30 00:01:34.439 --> 00:01:36.040 On Tony's been tradition. 31 00:01:36.120 --> 00:01:37.920 Man, Every like four to six weeks we rip another 32 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:39.159 one of these and they're always a blast. 33 00:01:39.200 --> 00:01:41.640 So really looking forward to this absolutely. Man. 34 00:01:41.680 --> 00:01:44.920 We've been talking since the beginning of the bitcoin bull market, 35 00:01:45.200 --> 00:01:48.519 like twenty twenty three, right, and we've ran up over 36 00:01:48.560 --> 00:01:51.079 the past couple of years, and it seems like this 37 00:01:51.159 --> 00:01:51.879 is the year of the. 38 00:01:51.799 --> 00:01:52.519 Blow off top. 39 00:01:53.079 --> 00:01:55.519 What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's recent move and do 40 00:01:55.599 --> 00:01:57.400 you see a blow off top coming by the end 41 00:01:57.400 --> 00:01:57.760 of the year. 42 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:01.760 This move definitely happened a lot faster than I expected. 43 00:02:01.799 --> 00:02:04.439 I know, I was very defensive, if not leaning slightly 44 00:02:04.519 --> 00:02:06.719 bearish during March and April, but I laid out all 45 00:02:06.799 --> 00:02:08.599 the criteria right I said, if we get back above 46 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:10.319 the twenty one, the fifty five, and the two hundred 47 00:02:10.360 --> 00:02:13.000 day moving average, then I'm gonna flip super bullish again. 48 00:02:13.000 --> 00:02:15.120 And that was right around eighty five to eighty six thousand, 49 00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:17.759 so obviously getting to one hundred and twenty three k 50 00:02:18.240 --> 00:02:20.879 I think, you know, one of my superpowers as an investor, 51 00:02:20.919 --> 00:02:23.159 as an analyst is being able to change my mind 52 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:27.400 based on objective facts, objective reality, so we can fight 53 00:02:27.439 --> 00:02:29.919 trends or we can align with them. And thankfully, we've 54 00:02:29.919 --> 00:02:32.240 broadly been in a super strong uptrend, at least for 55 00:02:32.240 --> 00:02:34.199 bitcoin for quite some time now, so it's been very 56 00:02:34.199 --> 00:02:37.560 easy to be bullish to have our upside price targets. 57 00:02:37.919 --> 00:02:40.520 I've been talking basically since the second half of twenty 58 00:02:40.680 --> 00:02:43.159 twenty three saying that my cycle price target is one 59 00:02:43.199 --> 00:02:45.879 hundred and seventy five thousand for bitcoin, and it's been 60 00:02:45.919 --> 00:02:48.039 slow and steady. We've, you know, just keep making these 61 00:02:48.120 --> 00:02:50.520 higher highs and higher lows, but we're getting closer and 62 00:02:50.520 --> 00:02:54.199 closer month after month after month. Right, So look, I 63 00:02:54.199 --> 00:02:59.080 think this this latest breakout, you know, it's it's been 64 00:02:59.240 --> 00:03:01.039 exactly what we could have hoped for in a lot 65 00:03:01.039 --> 00:03:03.400 of ways. I think the funny thing about it, oddly enough, 66 00:03:03.439 --> 00:03:07.599 is like a lot of investors don't seem too excited 67 00:03:07.719 --> 00:03:10.639 or too grateful, right, It's just like, yeah, like bitcoin's that, 68 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:12.439 you know, one hundred and eighteen thousand, one hundred and 69 00:03:12.479 --> 00:03:15.319 nineteen thousand. You know, we're getting I'm still getting into 70 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:18.360 debates on Twitter spaces people talking about how bitcoin is 71 00:03:18.360 --> 00:03:20.360 a Ponzi scheme. It's just like they've lost a plot 72 00:03:20.479 --> 00:03:24.000 so much and they refuse to actually look at what's 73 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:26.280 really taking place here in this ecosystem. 74 00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:27.840 But that's their loss, not ours. 75 00:03:28.680 --> 00:03:31.599 Yeah. Well, put and you know you mentioned you you 76 00:03:31.639 --> 00:03:33.560 reserve the right to change your mind, and we have 77 00:03:33.680 --> 00:03:36.759 to because the data can change, right, like for example, 78 00:03:36.800 --> 00:03:39.960 black Swan events happen. I would consider the tariff crash 79 00:03:40.039 --> 00:03:44.000 that took place in Q one into Q two eight 80 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:46.960 blocks one event. No one saw that coming, right, and 81 00:03:47.000 --> 00:03:49.599 that kind of changed the whole dynamic, So you have 82 00:03:49.639 --> 00:03:52.360 to adjust your timelines and like you said, look at 83 00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:53.719 the moving averages and so forth. 84 00:03:54.439 --> 00:03:56.960 Yeah, and you know, I think that's one of the things, right, 85 00:03:57.000 --> 00:03:58.599 I say it all the time. It's okay to be wrong, 86 00:03:58.639 --> 00:04:01.039 it's just not okay to stay wrong. So you have 87 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:04.039 to have a rules based system to change and modify 88 00:04:04.080 --> 00:04:07.159 your perspectives based on actual reality. And so for me, 89 00:04:07.319 --> 00:04:09.840 using stuff like moving averages, the Williams percent are looking 90 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:13.759 at bullish, embarrassed, our side divergences. That's my bread and butter, right, 91 00:04:13.759 --> 00:04:15.120 and so I'm going to keep kind of looking at 92 00:04:15.120 --> 00:04:18.519 those data points and kind of letting things carry from there. 93 00:04:18.519 --> 00:04:20.240 I think one of the amazing things that we've actually 94 00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:24.360 been seeing in this market for the entire ecosystem is 95 00:04:24.399 --> 00:04:27.000 the fact that we continue to see stable coin market 96 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:30.439 cap rising, rising, rising, but at the same time we're 97 00:04:30.439 --> 00:04:34.240 actually seeing stable coin dominance falling really drastically. I brought 98 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:35.639 some charts with me, but I just want to explain 99 00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:36.600 this and kind of set it up. 100 00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:37.000 A little bit. 101 00:04:37.399 --> 00:04:40.079 What that's telling us is that new stable coins are 102 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:42.759 being issued and minted, but that investors are not keeping 103 00:04:42.759 --> 00:04:47.480 them in stable coins. They're being automatically deployed into let's 104 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:51.920 call them speculative assets, basically banking on more upside in 105 00:04:51.959 --> 00:04:55.600 this market. So let's go ahead and talk about it, right. 106 00:04:56.839 --> 00:04:59.600 This is the chart right here. This is looking at 107 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:03.560 US plus USDC in green, so that's total market cap, 108 00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:08.720 and then their respective dominance combined in blue. And so obviously, 109 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:13.800 basically since that April level, which was basically the peak 110 00:05:13.800 --> 00:05:16.519 of the tariff scare, if you will, we've seen really 111 00:05:16.519 --> 00:05:18.639 good things take place. Let's go ahead and prove it 112 00:05:18.959 --> 00:05:21.120 if we look at that same exact chart and then 113 00:05:21.160 --> 00:05:25.120 add on total crypto market cap excluding stable coins. Let's 114 00:05:25.160 --> 00:05:27.839 look at when that peak actually occurred, right, It was 115 00:05:27.839 --> 00:05:32.079 at the local lows in the total crypto market, and 116 00:05:32.199 --> 00:05:34.560 really good things have taken place. The other thing you'll 117 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:37.879 notice here right is stable coin dominance is actually making 118 00:05:38.000 --> 00:05:41.240 lower lows right here right now. So that's telling us 119 00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:45.360 that this recent down trend in stable cooin dominance is 120 00:05:45.439 --> 00:05:49.040 really intact. And obviously a down trend in stable coin 121 00:05:49.120 --> 00:05:52.360 dominance is exactly what we want to see here as investors. 122 00:05:53.199 --> 00:05:57.040 So yeah, absolutely, you mentioned tether dominance falling right, staple 123 00:05:57.079 --> 00:06:00.360 cooin dominance falling, but also bigcoin dominance has been falling, right, 124 00:06:00.399 --> 00:06:03.480 and that correlates with these rallies that we've seen historically. 125 00:06:04.240 --> 00:06:04.600 It has. 126 00:06:04.680 --> 00:06:07.199 So I actually brought two awesome charts just to talk 127 00:06:07.240 --> 00:06:10.040 about this exact topic, even though we didn't plan this ahead, Tony, 128 00:06:10.560 --> 00:06:13.040 But look, this is bitcoin dominance right, And so obviously 129 00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:16.120 one of the really interesting things about this recent acceleration 130 00:06:16.199 --> 00:06:18.879 to the upside in the overall crypto ecosystem is the 131 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:21.759 fact that bitcoin dominance is falling here. And so I think, 132 00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:24.519 based on this kind of dynamic, my general target is 133 00:06:24.519 --> 00:06:26.439 we're probably going to return right back to the sixty 134 00:06:26.439 --> 00:06:29.040 two percent level for bitcoin dominance. Can we fall lower 135 00:06:29.079 --> 00:06:32.199 than there? Absolutely, could we rebound on that level. That's 136 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:35.399 actually my expectation, because we could see former resistance has 137 00:06:35.480 --> 00:06:37.839 already flipped into support. So again, if we're going to 138 00:06:37.879 --> 00:06:41.519 be objective, we need to recognize that this is valid 139 00:06:41.879 --> 00:06:44.839 potential support here, and that would generally be my expectation. 140 00:06:45.279 --> 00:06:47.639 The interesting thing that I wanted to show here, Tony 141 00:06:47.920 --> 00:06:50.079 is if we look at this chart, which is combining 142 00:06:50.120 --> 00:06:55.160 the dominance of bitcoin ethereum and XRP. The interesting thing here, 143 00:06:55.639 --> 00:06:58.600 obviously this chart has not fallen nearly as much as 144 00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:00.800 bitcoin dominance had, and so we think, what is the 145 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:03.959 implication here, what is the discrepancy between these two charts 146 00:07:04.000 --> 00:07:07.399 actually telling us. It's telling us that all of the outperformance, 147 00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:09.199 or let me say it this way, all of the 148 00:07:09.240 --> 00:07:13.000 decline in bitcoin dominance is due to the outperformance of 149 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:16.240 Eth and XRP, and so for a lot of investors 150 00:07:16.240 --> 00:07:18.240 that's actually really good news. But for a lot of 151 00:07:18.240 --> 00:07:20.480 investors who are really far out onto the risk curve 152 00:07:20.519 --> 00:07:23.360 and what we could consider small cap all coins, this 153 00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:27.079 decline in bitcoin dominance is not actually helping them, because 154 00:07:27.079 --> 00:07:29.319 what we're seeing is that almost all of the outperformance 155 00:07:29.759 --> 00:07:31.759 in the all coin ecosystem is really just coming from 156 00:07:31.759 --> 00:07:32.480 ethan XRP. 157 00:07:33.639 --> 00:07:37.519 H Wow, that is interesting. I've never looked at the 158 00:07:37.639 --> 00:07:41.759 combined dominance like this, and that is very fascinating that 159 00:07:41.879 --> 00:07:44.160 those two assets are doing a lot of the damage, 160 00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:44.800 so to speak. 161 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:46.839 Well, look, I always try to come with some unique 162 00:07:46.839 --> 00:07:49.399 alpha here, Tony. So it's literally my job to find 163 00:07:49.399 --> 00:07:51.959 these crazy little correlations and market dynamics and try to 164 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:53.519 bring them to as many people as possible. 165 00:07:53.560 --> 00:07:56.079 So, you know, hopefully that's what we're doing here today. 166 00:07:56.519 --> 00:07:59.319 Can we look at a bitcoin chart and if you 167 00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:01.319 can tell us what you're looking at, you know, could 168 00:08:01.319 --> 00:08:03.639 this move right now lead us to a local top 169 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:06.560 and then a continuation into a blow off top into 170 00:08:06.800 --> 00:08:07.279 Q four. 171 00:08:08.279 --> 00:08:09.600 So perfect, let's do it. 172 00:08:09.680 --> 00:08:12.040 Let's go ahead and talk about my actual targets here 173 00:08:12.040 --> 00:08:16.279 for bitcoin based on this recent breakout. First of all, 174 00:08:16.319 --> 00:08:19.560 I want to draw look, I use very simple methodologies here, right, 175 00:08:19.639 --> 00:08:21.839 We're basically just going to be using a Fibonacci extension 176 00:08:22.240 --> 00:08:25.199 in logarithmic scale. I'm going to be taking that Fibonacci 177 00:08:25.240 --> 00:08:28.319 from the January of twenty twenty five highs, so those 178 00:08:28.319 --> 00:08:30.720 April seventh lows, and I'm going to make sure that 179 00:08:30.759 --> 00:08:34.159 I have my Fibonacci levels based on logarithmic scale, not linear, 180 00:08:34.200 --> 00:08:38.039 because Bitcoin is in a logarithmic uptrend, and so based 181 00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:40.960 on that alone, that one sixty one point eight percent 182 00:08:41.000 --> 00:08:43.559 extension gets us to one hundred and thirty eight thousand. 183 00:08:43.799 --> 00:08:47.320 You'll also notice that that is also basically equivalent to 184 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:52.080 the measured move of this bullflag breakout that we've just achieved. 185 00:08:52.320 --> 00:08:53.919 You might be saying, well, Caleb, this just looks like 186 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:54.879 a lot of hindsight bias. 187 00:08:54.919 --> 00:08:55.159 Guys. 188 00:08:55.159 --> 00:08:57.879 I was talking about this regression bullflag in real time 189 00:08:58.000 --> 00:08:59.960 as we were forming it, before we even broke out. 190 00:09:00.120 --> 00:09:02.440 So this has been a very consistent message that I've 191 00:09:02.440 --> 00:09:05.879 been sharing both on x on substack with premium members 192 00:09:05.919 --> 00:09:07.879 of Cubic Analytics, on my live stream, so on and 193 00:09:08.000 --> 00:09:10.159 so forth. Now, let's just add one more target to 194 00:09:10.159 --> 00:09:11.559 the upside, and we'll look at the two hundred and 195 00:09:11.559 --> 00:09:14.399 sixty one pointy percent extension in logrewdthmic scale. That gets 196 00:09:14.440 --> 00:09:16.360 us to two hundred and two thousand, six hundred and 197 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:20.440 fifty roughly. And so you know, again the cycle target 198 00:09:20.480 --> 00:09:22.840 that I've been talking about has been at minimum one 199 00:09:22.919 --> 00:09:25.399 seventy five, and that's by basically doing that same exact 200 00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:29.279 stylistic approach, drawing a fibonacci from those twenty twenty one 201 00:09:29.320 --> 00:09:31.720 all time highs to the twenty twenty two bear market 202 00:09:31.759 --> 00:09:34.120 lows in log rewthmic scale, we get to. 203 00:09:34.039 --> 00:09:35.200 One seventy four and change. 204 00:09:35.440 --> 00:09:37.600 Right, So I've been saying, look, I'm willing to entertain 205 00:09:37.720 --> 00:09:40.960 higher upside price targets. Probably not too much higher, but 206 00:09:41.039 --> 00:09:44.559 it's definitely possible. And that's kind of how we get there, right, 207 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:46.000 So we can look at one thirty eight to one 208 00:09:46.120 --> 00:09:49.000 thirty nine for the one sixty one point eight percent extension, 209 00:09:49.159 --> 00:09:51.480 we can look at that bullflag getting us to basically 210 00:09:51.480 --> 00:09:53.120 one forty seven, and then we can look at the 211 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:54.720 two sixty one pointy percent that gets us to around 212 00:09:54.759 --> 00:09:56.799 two hundred thousand. So we're getting a lot of confluence 213 00:09:56.799 --> 00:09:58.759 here in terms of how these different indicators are on 214 00:09:58.840 --> 00:10:02.639 different timeframes are all coming together and it's just fantastic. 215 00:10:03.519 --> 00:10:05.720 Obviously we don't have a crystal ball. Obviously no one 216 00:10:05.720 --> 00:10:08.639 can call the exact top, but these are using it. 217 00:10:08.720 --> 00:10:12.559 You said, the Fibonacci model, And are you anticipating and 218 00:10:12.600 --> 00:10:14.519 this is a hard thing to answer. You know, a 219 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:17.039 timeline wise that this end wraps up in Q four 220 00:10:17.200 --> 00:10:19.440 or it might bleed into like twenty twenty six Q. 221 00:10:19.399 --> 00:10:23.600 One, like you said, we don't have an answer for that, right, 222 00:10:23.679 --> 00:10:25.600 so we can speculate. The funny thing about it is 223 00:10:25.639 --> 00:10:27.519 when I first came out and shared my one hundred 224 00:10:27.519 --> 00:10:29.480 and seventy five K cycle price target, I think that 225 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:32.159 was in July or August of twenty twenty three, we're 226 00:10:32.200 --> 00:10:35.080 trading right around thirty thousand dollars per PTC and a 227 00:10:35.080 --> 00:10:36.840 lot of people are saying, is that your price target 228 00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:38.639 for the end of this year, which was twenty twenty three? 229 00:10:38.679 --> 00:10:40.240 Is that your target for twenty twenty four? And I 230 00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.320 was like, guys, it's a cycle price target. I have 231 00:10:42.399 --> 00:10:44.000 no idea when the cycle is going to end. If 232 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:46.000 anyone else has a crystal ball, please let me know 233 00:10:46.039 --> 00:10:46.879 I'd love to see it. 234 00:10:47.799 --> 00:10:49.600 So look, I have absolutely no idea. 235 00:10:49.879 --> 00:10:51.720 I think there's been this whole debate about whether or 236 00:10:51.759 --> 00:10:53.440 not we're actually going to follow kind of that four 237 00:10:53.480 --> 00:10:57.320 year cycle kind of dynamic, and I've always said, like, look, 238 00:10:57.399 --> 00:11:00.000 you know, the four year cycle has been the easiest, simplest, 239 00:11:00.120 --> 00:11:02.240 and arguably one of the most effective models that we 240 00:11:02.240 --> 00:11:06.559 can actually use. But you know, this time really is different, 241 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:08.720 and you know, we can point to a variety of 242 00:11:08.759 --> 00:11:10.559 different data points that show that this time is different 243 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:12.559 and how last time was different than any time before. 244 00:11:12.320 --> 00:11:12.759 That as well. 245 00:11:12.840 --> 00:11:14.720 Right, so each cycle is always going to be a 246 00:11:14.720 --> 00:11:16.960 little bit different. The four year cycle is interesting. It 247 00:11:16.960 --> 00:11:19.600 gives us a really valid blueprint if you want to 248 00:11:19.639 --> 00:11:20.720 follow the four year cycle. 249 00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:20.879 Though. 250 00:11:20.919 --> 00:11:23.759 I think on average bitcoin peaks around sixteen to seventeen 251 00:11:23.840 --> 00:11:26.399 months after the having, so that basically puts us in 252 00:11:26.480 --> 00:11:30.519 August to September maybe October for the cycle peak. 253 00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:31.679 I'm looking at all. 254 00:11:31.600 --> 00:11:33.679 The economic data, I'm looking at the FED, who's probably 255 00:11:33.679 --> 00:11:35.240 going to be cutting rates in the back half of 256 00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:38.360 this year. I'm looking at everything taking place, and I'm saying, look, 257 00:11:38.399 --> 00:11:40.159 all I see are higher highs and high lows. All 258 00:11:40.200 --> 00:11:42.120 I see is corporate earnings on the rise. All I 259 00:11:42.159 --> 00:11:44.440 see is risk appetite in the stock market doing really well. 260 00:11:44.519 --> 00:11:46.799 All I see is bitcoin breaking out. Why am I 261 00:11:46.840 --> 00:11:48.639 going to try to put a limit on when the 262 00:11:48.639 --> 00:11:49.559 party is going to end? 263 00:11:49.679 --> 00:11:49.799 Right? 264 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:52.720 If everyone's having a good time, hot girls are showing up, 265 00:11:52.799 --> 00:11:55.279 all the people are coming in with new bottles of tequila, 266 00:11:55.440 --> 00:11:57.360 Let's keep the party going, and let's keep make sure 267 00:11:57.360 --> 00:11:59.840 that that the neighbors are fine. Right, And so far 268 00:11:59.879 --> 00:12:01.559 we still kind of have that dynamic. So I have 269 00:12:01.639 --> 00:12:03.799 no idea when the cycle is going to end. I 270 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:05.720 have no shame in admitting that. If anyone does know 271 00:12:05.720 --> 00:12:06.919 when it's gonna end, please let me know. 272 00:12:06.960 --> 00:12:07.600 I'd love to hear it. 273 00:12:07.960 --> 00:12:10.840 Yeah, for sure. That is such a hard thing to 274 00:12:11.320 --> 00:12:13.159 answer and to predict. And like you said, we don't 275 00:12:13.200 --> 00:12:15.240 have a crystal ball. And I often tell people if 276 00:12:15.279 --> 00:12:17.240 they do have a crystal ball, just tell me the 277 00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:20.080 winning lottery numbers next week. Yeah, I could become a. 278 00:12:20.039 --> 00:12:23.200 Millionaire exactly exactly. 279 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:28.360 How about you know, total all coin market? How what 280 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:30.039 are you seeing on that front? Because a lot of 281 00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:32.279 people hold all coins, they don't necessarily hold bitcoin. 282 00:12:32.639 --> 00:12:34.840 I think that you know it's been no secret that 283 00:12:34.879 --> 00:12:38.240 Bitcoin has been leading this breakout. We've been seeing bitcoin 284 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:41.679 dominance pull back, but from a structural perspective, bitcoin itself 285 00:12:41.759 --> 00:12:43.840 is what's really leading the way here this cycle, right. 286 00:12:44.159 --> 00:12:46.200 And so what's really interesting about this chart is we're 287 00:12:46.200 --> 00:12:51.320 looking at total crypto market cap again excluding USDT plus USDC, right, 288 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:54.759 so we're basically just looking at the actual uh cryptocurrency 289 00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:59.039 ecosystem excluding stable coins. What's interesting about this is it 290 00:12:59.080 --> 00:13:02.320 has actually yet to make new cycle highs. And so 291 00:13:02.360 --> 00:13:05.519 when we're looking at Bitcoin's price structure, which again looks 292 00:13:05.559 --> 00:13:08.960 like this, when we achieve this breakout, really good things 293 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:11.159 have happened. We've gone from one hundred and twenty three thousand, 294 00:13:11.200 --> 00:13:13.000 excuse me, from one hundred and twelve thousand to one 295 00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:14.919 hundred and twenty three thousand in a. 296 00:13:14.879 --> 00:13:15.639 Matter of days. 297 00:13:16.080 --> 00:13:19.840 Right, And so as we're looking at the total crypto ecosystem, now, 298 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:22.879 if this is actually going to follow in the footsteps 299 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:26.159 of bitcoin itself, then we should see this breakout. We 300 00:13:26.159 --> 00:13:29.039 should have it stick the landing, we should achieve that extension. 301 00:13:29.399 --> 00:13:32.159 Maybe we kind of produce one of those classic breakout 302 00:13:32.200 --> 00:13:35.399 retest rebound types of setups where we get some extension 303 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.840 up into this range, we come back in, we retest 304 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.480 this green level, and then we rebound again to new 305 00:13:40.480 --> 00:13:42.919 cycle highs. I also want to highlight here we're looking 306 00:13:42.960 --> 00:13:44.799 at the twenty one, the fifty five, and the two 307 00:13:44.919 --> 00:13:49.039 hundred day exponential moving average. We have clear proof right here, 308 00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:51.840 right now that we have a full bullish formation where 309 00:13:51.960 --> 00:13:53.639 price is above the twenty one, the twenty one is 310 00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:55.399 above the fifty five, the fifty five is above the 311 00:13:55.440 --> 00:13:58.080 two hundred. All three of those emas have a positive 312 00:13:58.120 --> 00:14:00.960 and rising slope. That's very different than the dynamic that 313 00:14:01.000 --> 00:14:02.919 was occurring here when we were in a down trend. 314 00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:05.879 That's very different than the dynamic that was taking place 315 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:08.360 in the middle of last year as well. It's much 316 00:14:08.399 --> 00:14:11.320 more reminiscent of the dynamic that was taking place in 317 00:14:11.399 --> 00:14:15.080 Q four of last year. It's much more representative of 318 00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:17.200 the dynamic that was taking place at the end of 319 00:14:17.200 --> 00:14:19.679 twenty twenty three in the beginning of twenty twenty four. 320 00:14:20.440 --> 00:14:24.559 So what we have here statistically is an uptrend. And again, 321 00:14:24.679 --> 00:14:27.240 as investors, we now have a choice. We can acknowledge 322 00:14:27.240 --> 00:14:30.159 that this uptrend exists, it is intact, and we have 323 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:31.960 a choice. We can align with it or we can 324 00:14:32.000 --> 00:14:33.960 fight this uptrend, and I'm gonna choose to align with 325 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:36.399 it every single time. And what this is telling me 326 00:14:36.480 --> 00:14:39.200 is that whether or not Bitcoin outperforms everything else, whether 327 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:42.080 or not Ethereum keeps outperforming BPC, you know. 328 00:14:42.240 --> 00:14:42.879 Let's see. 329 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:45.440 All I know though, is that good things should happen 330 00:14:45.480 --> 00:14:47.559 for the ecosystem as a whole. And we don't really 331 00:14:47.600 --> 00:14:49.600 need to overthink this too much. We just need to 332 00:14:49.639 --> 00:14:50.639 have the exposure. 333 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:51.159 That's it. 334 00:14:51.799 --> 00:14:54.840 Absolutely, So we are certainly in bull market territory, and 335 00:14:54.840 --> 00:14:57.720 bitcoin of course leads to market, so we can expect 336 00:14:57.759 --> 00:15:00.799 to see that fallow Bitcoin as a continues to move. 337 00:15:00.759 --> 00:15:04.559 Up exactly, Tony, I actually forgot. I have another chart 338 00:15:04.559 --> 00:15:06.639 on this as well, taking it kind of a step further. 339 00:15:07.000 --> 00:15:09.600 This is actually looking at total three excluding stable coins. 340 00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:12.240 So obviously total three is looking at total crypto market 341 00:15:12.240 --> 00:15:16.600 cap excluding Bitcoin and excluding ethereum, and then manually I'm taking. 342 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:17.759 Out USDT and USDC. 343 00:15:18.320 --> 00:15:21.960 So obviously this is not back at those cycle highs yet, right, 344 00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:24.759 but we have this kind of intermediate term base here 345 00:15:24.759 --> 00:15:28.039 where we're also trying to achieve that structural breakout and 346 00:15:28.120 --> 00:15:32.000 basically make new six month highs guys. Objectively, there's nothing 347 00:15:32.039 --> 00:15:35.200 bearish whatsoever about making new six month highs, new six 348 00:15:35.200 --> 00:15:35.799 month highs. 349 00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:37.440 In fact, new highs. 350 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:40.600 On any timeframe is representative of an uptrend during that timeframe. 351 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:42.519 So if we're making new six month highs, that's telling 352 00:15:42.600 --> 00:15:46.799 us we're in a six month uptrend basically. So you know, again, 353 00:15:47.159 --> 00:15:49.240 really good things should take place here. And if we 354 00:15:49.279 --> 00:15:52.120 do achieve this breakout, if we stick this landing, then 355 00:15:52.159 --> 00:15:54.440 the assumption here, the bias should be that we should 356 00:15:54.440 --> 00:15:56.360 return back to these cycle highs. So we should go 357 00:15:56.440 --> 00:15:58.759 from basically six excuse me, we should go from basically 358 00:15:58.759 --> 00:16:02.639 seven hundred and fifty billion to almost one trillion in total, 359 00:16:02.639 --> 00:16:04.679 three minus stable coins. And I think, you know, for 360 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:06.759 a lot of investors, that's great news, right, whether or 361 00:16:06.799 --> 00:16:09.559 not those all coins do outperform Bitcoin, whether or not 362 00:16:09.559 --> 00:16:13.399 they do outperform Ethereum or XRP, it's just telling us, look, 363 00:16:13.399 --> 00:16:15.159 we're in an environment where a rising tide is going 364 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:18.039 to lift all boats, and things should go pretty well from. 365 00:16:17.879 --> 00:16:19.320 Here, absolutely. 366 00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:21.559 And I like to remind people just look at what 367 00:16:21.639 --> 00:16:24.360 happened in Q four of twenty twenty four, because you know, 368 00:16:24.519 --> 00:16:28.000 sometimes people they have short memories and it's almost like 369 00:16:28.200 --> 00:16:29.759 what have you done for me lately? And it's like 370 00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:32.799 when did you buy did you not buy the bloody 371 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:35.120 bear market? And you've been riding to wave up right 372 00:16:35.159 --> 00:16:39.039 with bitcoin, but unfortunately some people don't. But it's like, hey, 373 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:41.480 what we experience in Q four twenty twenty four, We're 374 00:16:41.519 --> 00:16:43.000 gonna see that plus more. 375 00:16:43.720 --> 00:16:45.759 I hope, so you know, I mean, look what, I'm 376 00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:47.480 always going to reserve my right to change my mind 377 00:16:47.480 --> 00:16:51.000 if we see bitcoin or total minus USDT minus USDC 378 00:16:51.159 --> 00:16:53.480 fall below those moving averages very similar to what was 379 00:16:53.480 --> 00:16:56.000 occurring in February and March of this year. I'm gonna 380 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:57.960 sound a lot more defensive when I'm on your podcast 381 00:16:58.000 --> 00:16:59.759 next time if everything. 382 00:16:59.519 --> 00:17:00.639 Is kind of like up that way. 383 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:02.799 But so long as we have this dynamic right here 384 00:17:02.879 --> 00:17:05.799 right now, in my opinion, that's irresponsible to be bearish. 385 00:17:05.799 --> 00:17:07.400 I mean, I'm looking at the sign behind you. We're guys, 386 00:17:07.400 --> 00:17:09.799 we're trading at one hundred and nineteen thy two hundred and. 387 00:17:09.720 --> 00:17:11.079 Five for bitcoin. 388 00:17:11.119 --> 00:17:13.279 I mean, come on, let's be let's let's show some 389 00:17:13.279 --> 00:17:14.599 gratitude and excitement here, right. 390 00:17:14.640 --> 00:17:16.000 I mean, this is what we've been hoping for for 391 00:17:16.079 --> 00:17:16.599 a long time. 392 00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:21.039 Absolutely well, put, let's look at the individual all coins 393 00:17:21.079 --> 00:17:24.920 such as etherorem it's it's been pumping this morning. What 394 00:17:24.960 --> 00:17:25.680 are you seeing there? 395 00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:29.920 So the message that I've been sharing with premium members 396 00:17:30.000 --> 00:17:33.920 of Cubic Analytics is this structure here for eth BTC. 397 00:17:34.680 --> 00:17:38.200 So you'll notice we are now making new multi month 398 00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:40.480 highs on ethereum relative to Bitcoin. 399 00:17:40.559 --> 00:17:42.839 This is a massive, massive breakout here. 400 00:17:43.480 --> 00:17:47.079 And am I going to interpret this as oh, Ethereum 401 00:17:47.119 --> 00:17:49.519