Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode one forty of Cards
Speaker 1: and Categories. I'm my Coolard from Baseball Perspectus and I
Speaker 1: am joined as always by my very good friend but
Speaker 1: from on the road, Jeremy Brewer from Rasball. How are
Speaker 1: you doing tonight, Buddy.
Speaker 2: Doing well, doing well.
Speaker 3: I'm in Nashville today that we were talking before we started,
Speaker 3: right across the campus for Vanderbilt, so trying to get
Speaker 3: some scouting done, but they're unfortunately not playing. So I'm
Speaker 3: just happy to be here at the wrong time of year.
Speaker 3: Maybe not the wrong time of year, but just off
Speaker 3: by a few weeks. But anyway, on the road, traveling,
Speaker 3: but we can't miss out on a good podcast. So
Speaker 3: excited to be here, excited to chat with some baseball.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, maybe not the greatest year or to
Speaker 1: have been in Nashville trying to see some Vandy baseball.
Speaker 1: This is not their finest year. It's kind of an
Speaker 1: upside down SEC standings that LSU has also been bottom
Speaker 1: three along with South Carolina and Missoo bringing up the
Speaker 1: rear pretty much as always in the SEC that my
Speaker 1: littlest brother went to MISSOO and I am always like
Speaker 1: do you ever go to any baseball games, and like
Speaker 1: because Max Sures went through there and stuff, and I
Speaker 1: think Ian Kinsler too. I was like, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: it's a good program. He's like, no, not since Ian
Speaker 1: Kinsler Max Schures are and that makes me feel old.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, let's let's not talk about that.
Speaker 1: I mean, it will be a good weekend for college baseball,
Speaker 1: so I'm looking forward to that. You got a lot
Speaker 1: of like the tourney starting to kick off and all
Speaker 1: the comings and goings of college baseball playoffs, which will
Speaker 1: be fun. But we're going to focus on the MLB
Speaker 1: side here a little bit. We've got a pretty loose
Speaker 1: agenda because you are on the road. Where, uh, what
Speaker 1: hotel chains Wi Fi are we counting on to hold
Speaker 1: us through.
Speaker 2: We're at the Low's Nashville, so it's love so the
Speaker 2: Wi Fi will hold out.
Speaker 3: I think we got a good chance here, but if
Speaker 3: not all just like I said, there's probably a university
Speaker 3: library nearby that I can go to. I'm sure that
Speaker 3: they'll allow a random guy to go in podcasts in
Speaker 3: their library.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's totally totally cool with everybody who's got open
Speaker 1: Wi Fi networks as well as like I mean, it
Speaker 1: is strange having a baseball related conversation not on Marriott WiFi.
Speaker 1: So we'll see if the Internet allows us to get
Speaker 1: through this pod successfully. First, if you are checking out
Speaker 1: this podcast, going too those show notes, I will be
Speaker 1: linking to everything that we are discussing. You can also
Speaker 1: find down there a ras ball subscription that you can
Speaker 1: get signed up for, so you can have access to
Speaker 1: all the great tools on the website between the hitter Tron,
Speaker 1: the Streaminator, and some of the reliever tools, as well
Speaker 1: as just supporting a great website, supporting some great independent
Speaker 1: baseball media, and also supporting the writers as well as
Speaker 1: I believe the subscription does also wipe out the ads,
Speaker 1: which is substantial. Those things do bog down the computer
Speaker 1: if you don't have the subscription. So certainly lots of
Speaker 1: great stuff going on at rasball check it out, but
Speaker 1: we are going to get into the news and notes
Speaker 1: that are down there. You could probably tell from because
Speaker 1: I'm gonna nickname or I'm gonna name this podcast loose.
Speaker 1: Feeling loose, I think is what I'm gonna go with,
Speaker 1: because we've got loose bodies everywhere. They've been leaking all
Speaker 1: across the big leagues. Now, I do think that we
Speaker 1: have an interesting conversation here because one of them is
Speaker 1: going of the new injuries, is going the route of
Speaker 1: Treek schoobl who we actually saw on the field this
Speaker 1: week that he's already doing long toss and to be
Speaker 1: able to come back very quickly from that elbow surgery.
Speaker 1: So it seems like some of the agents speak that
Speaker 1: was coming from the Scott Boris and John Hayman's side
Speaker 1: might have been closer to the truth than I think
Speaker 1: I initially anticipated. In Treek Schouble, what they did with
Speaker 1: that procedure on Scooble was it was a small loose
Speaker 1: body that gets it's been quoted over and over that
Speaker 1: was the size of a lima bean that they pulled
Speaker 1: out of there. And essentially what was happening in trigued
Speaker 1: Schoobel's elbow was that that lima bean would become wedged
Speaker 1: in between bits of the elbow and cause pain and soreness.
Speaker 1: And so what they did is what Boris named a
Speaker 1: scoobole scope, which actually I think he might have been
Speaker 1: onto something that it was like a clever bit of branding,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of like Tommy John surgery or something
Speaker 1: where we thought it was just Boris hamming it up.
Speaker 1: I think there is a newer procedure for this that
Speaker 1: they've been starting to use, because well, I'll just get
Speaker 1: into it. We've got two new pictures that are down
Speaker 1: with loose bodies, Max Freed and Blake Snell. It sounds
Speaker 1: like Bike Snell. No, maybe Max me I should have
Speaker 1: maybe pulled up the actual milbe trade rumors better. But
Speaker 1: they are undergoing the actual kind of scubale scope or whatever,
Speaker 1: and so that will maybe make the time frame a
Speaker 1: little bit quicker here than what we were used to.
Speaker 1: And I think it's I read that it was Snell.
Speaker 1: It's going to be undergoing.
Speaker 3: The uh undergoing undergo a scubole scope and food has
Speaker 3: They're calling it a bone bruise at this point in time.
Speaker 1: Which is more concerning.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if it's more concerning or less concerning.
Speaker 3: It's kind of in the middle thereof to your point,
Speaker 3: if you're just taking a single loose body out, maybe
Speaker 3: that's a little bit better if you can truly scope
Speaker 3: something like that. The bone bruise is one of those
Speaker 3: that just like, how did you get a bone bruise?
Speaker 3: In your in your elbow and what what really is
Speaker 3: the precursors that is that now inflammation is the issues.
Speaker 3: And you know they're saying he's gonna be shut down
Speaker 3: for a few weeks and then they'll kind of see
Speaker 3: from there, which is I think always the thing you
Speaker 3: don't want to see from. I feel like we've had
Speaker 3: a rash that this year, and like I think in
Speaker 3: just like the last two weeks has been like Chris Bubich,
Speaker 3: Cole Reagan's uh read like a number of guys that
Speaker 3: have just been put on the I L because of
Speaker 3: some type of injury. But it's just I need a
Speaker 3: little bit of time off and work my way back
Speaker 3: and then would be injured again work my way back.
Speaker 3: And I think both those aforementioned Kansas State Royals have
Speaker 3: already played that game. They think they're both on their
Speaker 3: second since if I recall, and so I think the
Speaker 3: same can be saved for Free, who's also a great
Speaker 3: start this year. But it's it is concerning it it's
Speaker 3: one of those or something much you can do. You
Speaker 3: got to hold them and wait versus you know, Snell,
Speaker 3: And I actually give the Dodger just credit on the
Speaker 3: Snell They're just they're making a choice, which is I
Speaker 3: think is better than some other organizations.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it is, so thank you for correcting me.
Speaker 1: You were obviously reading the news a little bit better
Speaker 1: than I have been from your hotel there in Nashville.
Speaker 1: Freed is dealing with a bruised elbow. Snell is the
Speaker 1: one dealing with loose bodies, and he is doing the
Speaker 1: Nando needle is the more official kind of terminology. But
Speaker 1: they not yea, not the scoopbol scope. It can't and
Speaker 1: it can't be the be the Blake snake because we've
Speaker 1: already got scoobole scope and nanoneedle, so Snell will be
Speaker 1: down with that surgery. But it does sound like they're
Speaker 1: getting it lined up to what you would see in
Speaker 1: terms of a more typical surgery timeline there, where they're
Speaker 1: saying two to three ish months, which is where Edwin
Speaker 1: Diaz was as well. I also do wonder if there
Speaker 1: is a little bit of a factor between, you know,
Speaker 1: with Treek Scuoble and Blake Snell getting these surgeries and
Speaker 1: Edwin Diaz that you know, these are teams between the
Speaker 1: Dodgers and the Yankees, and well, the Yankees with Max
Speaker 1: Free kind of shutting him down with this elbow soreness.
Speaker 1: Treeks Scouble is going into free agency. I do wonder
Speaker 1: if there is like some push right now. You know
Speaker 1: at this point too, you know you can go down
Speaker 1: for two or three months and still return and get
Speaker 1: in tune for the playoffs. You're looking at a bunch
Speaker 1: of players here that are headed towards the playoffs, looking
Speaker 1: for deep runs. I wonder if that is a part
Speaker 1: of the calculus as well, especially when you're looking at
Speaker 1: Snell and Diaz from the Dodgers, in terms of let's
Speaker 1: get the surgery done now, let's get it out of
Speaker 1: the way, let's rehab so that you're ready to go
Speaker 1: on October. Because it does feel like it's a little
Speaker 1: bit like when we were going through the spat of
Speaker 1: like the damaged UCLs and everybody was like, actually, every
Speaker 1: pitcher has a pretty banged up UCL. It's just kind
Speaker 1: of what degree of UCL damage do we have. I
Speaker 1: think there's something similar going on with loose bodies here too,
Speaker 1: where there's an element of the volume of damage that
Speaker 1: pitching does to your arm. It creates, you know, calcified
Speaker 1: bone deposits it creates just other gunk going on in
Speaker 1: the overall elbow that I'm wondering if there is a
Speaker 1: pattern here where the teams are saying, hey, let's get
Speaker 1: this put out of the way now so you're not
Speaker 1: dealing with it for another couple of weeks. What do
Speaker 1: you think is it something where the concentration of all
Speaker 1: these injuries is happening You think maybe because of some
Speaker 1: of that prevention, or is it just the luck of
Speaker 1: the dice that they're all kind of coming up snake
Speaker 1: eyes right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would say maybe a little bit
Speaker 3: more luck of the dice, But I also think a
Speaker 3: little bit has to do with the fact that there
Speaker 3: does seem to be a better treatment than what there
Speaker 3: has been the past, and so in the past I
Speaker 3: think maybe not been reported quite the same way where
Speaker 3: it might just be inflammation or dead arm or things
Speaker 3: like that, which are a little bit more broad terms,
Speaker 3: and they're not going to get into hey, there's loose bodies,
Speaker 3: because now we're going to have to debate a year
Speaker 3: long surgery or something like that.
Speaker 2: So I do think some of it.
Speaker 3: Is the medical advancement, to be honest, and when they're
Speaker 3: looking at and saying, hey, this guy can be out
Speaker 3: for two months and be back later this year. We
Speaker 3: could see that he's fully healthy, normal offseason. There's a
Speaker 3: ton to gain from that, versus let's do a platelet
Speaker 3: rich injection and then let's give him a month of rest,
Speaker 3: Like we can just go ahead and get it addressed
Speaker 3: and end up in the same exact spot, but not
Speaker 3: have the concerns of will he be back, can he rehab?
Speaker 3: All those types of things. So I think there's a
Speaker 3: combination of things going on here. Yeah, definitely some just
Speaker 3: coincidental timing, But I think really it comes down to
Speaker 3: a little bit of this advancement from a medical perspective
Speaker 3: where folks can actually make the call and they don't
Speaker 3: have to hide behind some of those other terms that
Speaker 3: are just broad. It's always like the the sore elbow
Speaker 3: going to get evaluated for a second time.
Speaker 2: Used to meeting Tommy John.
Speaker 3: Now you know there's some different bone bruise maybe means
Speaker 3: loose bodies, which means two month surgery. So I guess
Speaker 3: to be seen, but it definitely seems like just the
Speaker 3: nature of the game there, they're being a little more
Speaker 3: aggressive with picture injuries than what we've seen in the past.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's very fair, and I mean,
Speaker 1: I think you'll also see this kind of reflected in
Speaker 1: you know, Marmo's Dad's rankings that came out this week.
Speaker 1: You know, Sarah's did a big update of rankings on
Speaker 1: the Athletic where the top there keeps being more and
Speaker 1: more players moving towards the top because we're losing more
Speaker 1: and more pitching arms from the ranks, and so you know,
Speaker 1: you're getting some pretty generous rises from some players across
Speaker 1: the board. As you know, you've even got Shane McClanahan
Speaker 1: sneaking in the top twenty fives now just because I mean,
Speaker 1: the dude can barely go five innings, but because of
Speaker 1: the people falling around down around him, he's still moving
Speaker 1: his way up. But I think it is going to
Speaker 1: be a fascinating year as we kind of sort these
Speaker 1: things out, and it doesn't necessarily look like there's quite
Speaker 1: the saviors that we had last year in terms of
Speaker 1: you know, the Nolan McLain's, the Trey Savages is, the
Speaker 1: the Jacob Misowski's, Chase Burns is those type of arms
Speaker 1: really came through the ranks quickly last year. And I
Speaker 1: don't know about you, but I haven't. The minor league
Speaker 1: pitching has been much more meh for me this year,
Speaker 1: and especially like I know Kate Anderson is carving it
Speaker 1: up down in Double A, but there's a ball change
Speaker 1: that happens from Double A to Triple A in the
Speaker 1: majors that trips up a lot of guys. I guess
Speaker 1: a lot of those players I just listed off before
Speaker 1: getting into Katie Anderson is not We're not immune to that.
Speaker 1: Last year, you know, they had to go through it
Speaker 1: and they did okay. But any players maybe in the
Speaker 1: minors that you're targeting to try to replace some of
Speaker 1: these guys or what are your thoughts on just the
Speaker 1: overall talent level down in the miners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the first thing that I'm looking at
Speaker 3: is probably not the minor league pitching. It's kind of
Speaker 3: those just like back in arms that can give you
Speaker 3: some volume and be in games. Like I saw one
Speaker 3: of more leagues, Andre Polonte nominated today, and I'm like, well,
Speaker 3: you know, a guy with a one point three whip
Speaker 3: keeping him below four ARRA and the chance for wins.
Speaker 3: It's a little more attractive than has been in the past.
Speaker 3: Because his arms not falling apart. But from a pitcher
Speaker 3: perspective in the minor leagues, I do think you're correct
Speaker 3: where right now it is a little bit thin at
Speaker 3: the upper miners. I think they're is still some some
Speaker 3: really you know, valuable arms down in the miners. And
Speaker 3: so you've got your guys like Seth Fernandez, Anthony Ivans,
Speaker 3: and Tyler Bremner as another guy that's kind of coming
Speaker 3: through that might actually get a chance to come up
Speaker 3: this year. Jonah Tong definitely should get a look this year.
Speaker 3: Even some bigger names like Secora Trevis Sikora who was
Speaker 3: hurt last year. He should be back hopefully late later
Speaker 3: this year, looking looking good.
Speaker 2: But then once you get past that, a lot of
Speaker 2: there's a lot of question marks.
Speaker 3: You get, you know, a Hagen Smith, if you get
Speaker 3: a Liam Doyle. You get guys like that that look
Speaker 3: like they should be ready to make some of those jumps,
Speaker 3: but they still got some things to work out, some
Speaker 3: control issues things like that, kind of like Noah Schultz
Speaker 3: who look great in the minors, but we knew there
Speaker 3: was some control issues there they had to figure out.
Speaker 3: So it feels like there's probably not you know the
Speaker 3: next guy up. Like I said, Jonah Tong, might be
Speaker 3: that it feels like the Mets, as you know, losing
Speaker 3: pitchers time after time. But I think the real true
Speaker 3: talent from the minor league pitching is definitely definitely further
Speaker 3: away at this point with guys like hernandez a Andsen,
Speaker 3: even sloan guys like that are further away. And if
Speaker 3: you're gonna be investing in minor league pitching from a
Speaker 3: single season league, it's probably not gonna play off terribly well.
Speaker 3: But if you're playing in the dynasty world, there's quite
Speaker 3: a bit out there because some guys are really making
Speaker 3: some breakthroughs in the low miners.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair even with the Mets,
Speaker 1: like it's not. It sounds like Zach Thornton is gonna
Speaker 1: be the one that's actually coming up for that rotation spot,
Speaker 1: and he's looked solid, but he actually maybe disproves what
Speaker 1: I was talking about with the jump from double A
Speaker 1: up because he looked pretty much the same from double
Speaker 1: A to triple A. So I think there's probably the
Speaker 1: case that there'll be more sneaky arms, but it doesn't
Speaker 1: quite feel like it does feel like a lot of
Speaker 1: the easy pickings kind of came through in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five as opposed to twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I think that's fair.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's get on to the next injury, which actually
Speaker 1: felled the number one player on the RAS Ball Player
Speaker 1: Raider as of today as we're when we're speaking here
Speaker 1: on May nineteenth, Drake Baldwin was number one on the
Speaker 1: Player Raider coming into today, Catcher from the Atlanta Braves
Speaker 1: going down with a right oblique strain, which is not
Speaker 1: what you want to hear because that is a pretty
Speaker 1: significant injury. And also on top of it, he was
Speaker 1: starting to catch a lot more and I think was
Speaker 1: needed to catch a lot more, as evidenced by the
Speaker 1: Braves turning to Sandy Leone with Sean Murphy going down
Speaker 1: recently too. So it looks like Drake Baldwin is probably
Speaker 1: going to be out. My guesstimate would be six ish weeks.
Speaker 1: We'll kind of see, because the next guy will talk
Speaker 1: about it. Sounds like it's a lot a severe compared
Speaker 1: to what Baldwin's dealing with. But what do you think
Speaker 1: about Baldwin going forward? Because it was a fantastic year
Speaker 1: so far, to date before he went down. You know,
Speaker 1: you're looking at a three or three average with thirteen
Speaker 1: homers and thirty eight RBI out of a catcher. The
Speaker 1: reason he's number one the player raiders because of that
Speaker 1: catcher position player boost. But yeah, it's looked every bit
Speaker 1: of the All Star that we expected out of Baldwin,
Speaker 1: if not more. And so do you think you can
Speaker 1: he can get back to that level when he returns
Speaker 1: from this oblique strain.
Speaker 3: I think that he can. You know, he's not I
Speaker 3: don't want to say he's a super lea athletic guy.
Speaker 3: I mean he is, you know, but he really gets
Speaker 3: his power from a sprint swing path, the approach and
Speaker 3: the pitch selection. And you know, he wasn't taking out
Speaker 3: like the game immediately like something happened and it was
Speaker 3: so drastic that we're really going to kind of be
Speaker 3: watching for him to fully get back. So actually I
Speaker 3: was thinking more of the four four to five week
Speaker 3: time frame that I think he's going to be back.
Speaker 3: So I've got a pretty positive outlook. He's never really
Speaker 3: been a guy who's been banged up, and it's not
Speaker 3: like it's gonna be a thing he's been fighting. I
Speaker 3: don't believe he's really had oblique issues before, So I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm even a positive outlook. At the same time, that
Speaker 3: catch a position, which we just talked about last year
Speaker 3: being so deep with a lot of these guys coming up,
Speaker 3: it's kind.
Speaker 2: Of been a mess this year.
Speaker 3: It happened, and like your look at the top of
Speaker 3: this lifts and it's like Shay Lean Leers and Drake
Speaker 3: Baldwin and Dylan Dingler like like that. That's that's where
Speaker 3: the value is, your hope, like Liam Hicks is giving
Speaker 3: you a ton of value. Then you've got the you know,
Speaker 3: Hunter Goodman playing well. But then it's just kind of
Speaker 3: a big smattering of of guys. Another guy that did
Speaker 3: just get hurt announced earlier today and Ryan Jeffers Handmaid
Speaker 3: and so you know, we're probably spent much time there
Speaker 3: because he's gonna be gone for some time. But it
Speaker 3: has been a tough position, and Baldwin has has been.
Speaker 2: So incredible at it. He's he's carried.
Speaker 3: Some teams absolutely, and I will say this as an
Speaker 3: owner of a few spots, definitely has has been a
Speaker 3: boon to the position. So it's that's gonna be a
Speaker 3: harrange replace because as much as Catcher was deep going
Speaker 3: into the season, it really starts to mellow out after
Speaker 3: like the top fifteen, whereas in the draft season, I
Speaker 3: felt like you'd go down to like twenty twenty four
Speaker 3: to twenty five, and now you're getting pretty dicey.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and I mean the next guy we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about is cal Rowley, who's got a much
Speaker 1: more minor oblique strain. It sounds like where it sounds
Speaker 1: more like when you're kind of reading the tea leaves,
Speaker 1: where like Baldwins is more shading on like a one
Speaker 1: to two grade strain while you're looking at a grade
Speaker 1: one strain. Pretty solidly for cal Rowley, because cal Rawley
Speaker 1: was playing through this for a little bit until they
Speaker 1: just like, man, you need to just take a break
Speaker 1: and not do this. And it's been a really rough
Speaker 1: year for Raleigh. One sixty one, two forty three, three
Speaker 1: seventeen slash line sixty three WRC plus before it went down,
Speaker 1: had hit seven homers and stolen two bases, But that
Speaker 1: one sixty one was really tearing you apart. And on
Speaker 1: top of it, though Baldwin Raleigh, you mentioned Ryan Jeffers
Speaker 1: going down, who I didn't put in the rundown just
Speaker 1: because we're kind of keeping a little more brief with
Speaker 1: you in your hotel situation. Another one went down this week,
Speaker 1: Francisco Alvarez went down with a torn meniscus. So it's
Speaker 1: really there is no depth of catcher anymore, that it's
Speaker 1: totally gotten into desperate times, desperate measures, where like in
Speaker 1: our audio league, I've been struggling that catcher ever since
Speaker 1: Alejandro Kirk went down, and like I was looking at
Speaker 1: Patrick Bailey this past week until like just that's how
Speaker 1: bad it's gotten. Where I'm using a Haesus Rodriguez and
Speaker 1: you know anybody who's playing in Arizona. But with Raley here,
Speaker 1: it has been a bit of a struggle. First time
Speaker 1: he's on the il for his career. Does seem like
Speaker 1: he was nursing this for a hot minute. You could
Speaker 1: see that in just the plate approach, where the walk
Speaker 1: rate had degraded just a shade under ten percent. At
Speaker 1: nine point nine, the strukeout right had increased to thirty
Speaker 1: one and a half percent. So what do you make
Speaker 1: of Cale Rowley going forward? Because it still was roughly
Speaker 1: a twenty eight homer pace, But like do you think
Speaker 1: he was still showing signs of being able to get
Speaker 1: back onto the saddle of being more of like a
Speaker 1: forty ish homer catcher.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this maybe is your medicine. And we
Speaker 3: talked about this a little offseason is don't buy career years.
Speaker 3: Its mean just the first big takeaway here, and maybe
Speaker 3: that's just can go unstated. But yeah, I mean, I
Speaker 3: think when he gets back. He's had some really rough
Speaker 3: luck this year, and even last year when he had
Speaker 3: his unbelievable season, there were signs of like I'm just
Speaker 3: I'm riding on high on every little thing going right.
Speaker 3: And I know I got a misery in mid season
Speaker 3: because I wrote an article about just sell sell high
Speaker 3: and Kyle Rally because there's no way this this, this
Speaker 3: maintains itself. Maybe I was six months too early on
Speaker 3: that one. But he's been, he's been. Was he was
Speaker 3: very streaky hitter last year. I think people forget that,
Speaker 3: you know, he was doing this in bunches. We would
Speaker 3: have like a few week period where he'd hit you know,
Speaker 3: seven eight home runs and then he'd go with with
Speaker 3: two for two weeks like that. That was the kind
Speaker 3: of guy he is, So I think he can. I
Speaker 3: still think that there's a thirty home more power in
Speaker 3: this bat. Honestly, this injury might not be as much
Speaker 3: of an injury as a kind of a reset for
Speaker 3: him to kind of step away. And so I'll take
Speaker 3: that gamble. Am I going out and trying to bring
Speaker 3: him in. Well, if I need to catch her, sure, sure,
Speaker 3: I'll see if somebody's selling low on him. I still
Speaker 3: think he's the guy that we drafted early. Maybe I
Speaker 3: don't want to put a first round draft right, some
Speaker 3: of them would give me a third fourth rounder on him. Still,
Speaker 3: col rally, he's still a guy that can absolutely win
Speaker 3: the league for you in that catcherp position. So I've
Speaker 3: got I've got faith. I think that he can turn
Speaker 3: things around. It's just the luck's got to turn. It's
Speaker 3: got to lead a little warmer out there in Seattle,
Speaker 3: and then he's got to get a little healthy. If
Speaker 3: you put all those things together, you know, give him
Speaker 3: three three four weeks and I think he'll he'll be
Speaker 3: back to maybe eighty percent of last year.
Speaker 2: We're still pretty gosh.
Speaker 1: Strong good Yeah, yeah, totally agree. Okay, Well, we're gonna
Speaker 1: stick in Seattle for our next bit of news because
Speaker 1: we have Brendan Donovan going down with another growing strain
Speaker 1: where it actually sounds like the original growing strain that
Speaker 1: kind of put him on the al earlier in the
Speaker 1: season never healed up fully. And it does also sound
Speaker 1: like both of these have related to an off season
Speaker 1: sports Horny Hernie's surgery, where that just kind of is
Speaker 1: starting to add up towards like this sounds like it
Speaker 1: could end up being a little bit of a washed
Speaker 1: out season for Brendan Donovan as he's working his way
Speaker 1: back from whatever kind of surgery off shoots that have
Speaker 1: sprouted up now. So something to keep in mind because
Speaker 1: especially like there's so many injuries and so many good
Speaker 1: players hurt that Brendan Donovan I think in lots of
Speaker 1: leagues can probably be cut at this point, especially because
Speaker 1: you might have a replacement. In terms of who was
Speaker 1: called up fro him. The Mariners did bring up Colt Emerson,
Speaker 1: their number one prospect, who is a shortstop but will
Speaker 1: be playing third base up to the big leagues from
Speaker 1: Triple A, where he was hitting two fifty five three
Speaker 1: forty seven, four sixty nine one five WRC plus with
Speaker 1: seven homers and ten stolen bases. Not exactly exciting, especially
Speaker 1: for the PCL, but he was one of the younger
Speaker 1: players that are twenty years old, is now one of
Speaker 1: the youngest players in MLB, behind like Kevin McGonagall and
Speaker 1: Connor Griffin. Now this is I think one of the
Speaker 1: more interesting kind of perspectives to dive into when it
Speaker 1: comes to fantasy baseball, because Cole Emerson, you know, somewhere
Speaker 1: around like a top ten to top fifteen prospect depending
Speaker 1: on the list application. From a fantasy perspective, maybe not
Speaker 1: quite as much juice, just because this is a prospect
Speaker 1: where the glove is a pretty decent carrying tool as
Speaker 1: well as like some of the long term outgrowth that
Speaker 1: you could see from just him being in the majors
Speaker 1: and being a good, solid bat reminds me maybe of
Speaker 1: a little bit of like Alex Bregmany sort of bat.
Speaker 1: So it's not going to be like a league changer,
Speaker 1: but it is going to be a good volume bat.
Speaker 1: Might take a couple of years to get there because
Speaker 1: of the age. What is your take on Colt Emerson
Speaker 1: of the Seattle Manners.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a pretty pretty similar take.
Speaker 3: I mean, you're right, he's I think MLB pipeline has
Speaker 3: been as the number six overall prospect, and he is
Speaker 3: a really, really good ballplayer. He's probably a hit over
Speaker 3: power type of guy, and so he I think, you know,
Speaker 3: in a few years, he's a guy that we could absolutely.
Speaker 2: See hitting two eighty to ninety. I think he's got
Speaker 2: that capability.
Speaker 3: But he's also guy that, you know, yeah, this peak's
Speaker 3: probably gonnaybe hit twenty homers. He might steal fifteen bases,
Speaker 3: Like he's gonna be a guy that's like a great
Speaker 3: middle infielder or kind of the back as a starter, shortstop,
Speaker 3: third base. You know, he's playing third base now that
Speaker 3: he's come up, and so he can get that multi
Speaker 3: position eligibility, which is great. And I think with the
Speaker 3: number of injuries we've had, there's way worse guys to
Speaker 3: be plugging in. But I do think it's gonna be
Speaker 3: a year or two. Like if you if you're looking
Speaker 3: at this year, he's probably he's worth an ad in
Speaker 3: probably twelve teamers and definitely fifteen teamers, and but I
Speaker 3: don't know that he's gonna win the league for you.
Speaker 3: But in a few years, I think this is gonna
Speaker 3: be a really really valuable bat, but he to your point,
Speaker 3: it's that Bragmann kind of profile. Maybe it's Xander Bogart's
Speaker 3: type of profile. There's a number of them out there
Speaker 3: that are really good real world ballplayers and are going
Speaker 3: to be valuable fantasy assets, but they're not the top
Speaker 3: five round kind of guys. I think that's where Emerson
Speaker 3: is gonna get a land in it.
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that.
Speaker 3: I think there's a lot to be said for that.
Speaker 3: You can't always be finding, you know, the the Kevin mcgonagall's, J. J.
Speaker 3: Weather holds those kind of guys, and you knowing nothing
Speaker 3: against cold Emerson here. He just he's number six overall
Speaker 3: because all these other guys got called up, he's probably
Speaker 3: more of a top twenty.
Speaker 2: Prospect if you do want to look at that way
Speaker 2: for fantasy perspectives.
Speaker 1: Yep, yep. I think that's all very fair. On top
Speaker 1: of it, too, you had not a great home ballpark
Speaker 1: for left handed batters like cold Emerson, and then when
Speaker 1: you also compare them to some of those other prospects,
Speaker 1: it looks like cold Emerson will probably continue to hit
Speaker 1: towards the bottom of this lineup. I don't know, depends
Speaker 1: a little bit on what they do at JP Crawford,
Speaker 1: especially when Brenda Donovan gets back, they do have a
Speaker 1: little bit of a question whether or not they want
Speaker 1: to continue writing JP Crawford, who's been in you know,
Speaker 1: steadily regressing year over year, and maybe just letting Emerson
Speaker 1: take that job over. So something to keep in mind
Speaker 1: with cold Emerson, like I said, like you said, I
Speaker 1: think there are much more exciting guys, even like I
Speaker 1: would find like Waldschmidt more exciting, you know, in terms
Speaker 1: of like whatever you bidding on wald Schmidt, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: bid that much on Colt Emerson. I would find him
Speaker 1: probably a little bit more towards like a Henry Bolta because,
Speaker 1: like the I think the output for Emerson is going
Speaker 1: to be more consistent, but the error bar on like
Speaker 1: a Bolta is much wider. You know, you're not gonna
Speaker 1: pop like a crazy thirty stolen based season out of
Speaker 1: Colt Emerson the rest of the way where you might
Speaker 1: actually get that out of Bolta if he gets full
Speaker 1: time job.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 3: I think we were just talking about it last week
Speaker 3: about wald Schmidt, Ambolta and Ewen, and you know, I'm like,
Speaker 3: I'd probably put Emerson two in that list, and that's
Speaker 3: more because to your point, there's a lot of variability
Speaker 3: on those other guys and Emerson, I feel like I
Speaker 3: know what I'm getting.
Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, Well, we have an injury for the Mets
Speaker 1: where this is what's opening that rotation spot alluding to
Speaker 1: just a little bit ago where Spencer Jones smashed a
Speaker 1: ball right into Clay Holmes's leg over the weekend in
Speaker 1: the Subway series. Holmes actually finished the rest of that
Speaker 1: inning pitching on a fractured fibula, which is just crazy.
Speaker 1: But he is going to be down now, and I
Speaker 1: mean they're not really putting a great timeframe on it,
Speaker 1: partly because a little bit of factor here too with
Speaker 1: like the Mets, where like I think Holmes is probably
Speaker 1: out for two months is usually about where this lands,
Speaker 1: you know, six to eight weeks, where especially it is
Speaker 1: his right leg and so that's where plant leg as
Speaker 1: a right footer to drive off of the mound. Honestly, well,
Speaker 1: both legs are pretty significant for pitching, but I think
Speaker 1: probably the one that is a little more painful, and
Speaker 1: so this will be a case of also where are
Speaker 1: the Mets and the standings when Clay Holmes is back
Speaker 1: and ready to go again. I believe they still have
Speaker 1: him for next year. Let me check they roll in formation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's on three It was on
Speaker 2: a three year deals the second year.
Speaker 1: Well, it's actually a player option for next year. So
Speaker 1: that'll be interesting to see what happens, because maybe Clay
Speaker 1: Holmes also has incentive to work his way back. But
Speaker 1: it's only for twelve mil. I think Clay Holmes is
Speaker 1: getting more than twelve million on the open market, so
Speaker 1: he's been opting out no matter what. But I think
Speaker 1: that will be a factor of like what the Mets
Speaker 1: do with him and Alvarez and all the other players
Speaker 1: that might get injured down this stretch because it's falling
Speaker 1: apart piece by piece, and you know now they've even
Speaker 1: called up Nick Moore Beto to join this squad as well,
Speaker 1: and you know they're just losing more and more dudes
Speaker 1: by the day. But what are you doing here with
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes because of those factors, Like, I mean, he
Speaker 1: was almost free at the draft table during the spring,
Speaker 1: but hes been a really consistent pitcher amongst a bunch
Speaker 1: of chaos this year. A two thirty nine ra and
Speaker 1: a twelve point six K minus b B, which is middling,
Speaker 1: but it was fifty two and two thirds innings gave
Speaker 1: you a solid whip at a one ten. The FIP
Speaker 1: was at a three twenty two. I mean, sure, the
Speaker 1: strikeouts were a little lacking, but he gave you everything
Speaker 1: else and pitched, you know, six to seven innings to
Speaker 1: give you a shout out a win. So is this
Speaker 1: a il worthy player for you, in Clay Holmes or
Speaker 1: is it somebody where you can throw him back to
Speaker 1: the scrap heap and see what happens when he heals from
Speaker 1: this broken fibula.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean I just made this decision in one
Speaker 3: of our leagues and I threw him back to the
Speaker 3: scrap heap, and I felt a little wrong doing it
Speaker 3: because of how strong of a season he's had. But
Speaker 3: you know, when I was looking at my injured list,
Speaker 3: I've got other guys on there that I believe will
Speaker 3: be back sooner and have a clear path to making
Speaker 3: an impact. And I can't remember the last time that
Speaker 3: the team announced the player is going to be out
Speaker 3: for a long time, and that was just the time
Speaker 3: frame that they gave. It wasn't like hey two months
Speaker 3: or expec him back in August or something like that.
Speaker 3: I feel like Holmes, like the best case scenario, here's
Speaker 3: we get like six starts at the end of the year.
Speaker 3: That's just my gut tells me. And yeah, that might
Speaker 3: be if if you have the free in il spot, Yeah,
Speaker 3: throw him on there.
Speaker 2: See what happens.
Speaker 3: But I'm I'm not above cutting him at this point
Speaker 3: because you know, it was he was good, but it
Speaker 3: wasn't like he was unbelievable. He was very serviceable for you.
Speaker 3: So I'm fine cutting him loose if you need and
Speaker 3: you get the roster spot. Grin shot at this point.
Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's fair, all right. Next injury we
Speaker 1: have is in Baltimore, Jordan Westburg underwent Tommy John surgery,
Speaker 1: which feels like this was three months too late. Whenever
Speaker 1: this came out in spring training, it seemed like this
Speaker 1: was the inevitable outcome and they should have just gone
Speaker 1: through with it. Because now the quote around Jordan Westburg
Speaker 1: is that the Baltimore Orioles Michael Lias, expects Westburg will return.
Speaker 1: It's a full time infielder quote unquote. In the early
Speaker 1: part of twenty twenty seven, which doesn't give you a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of confidence. There is an eighty game half
Speaker 1: season to twenty twenty seven that would be considered maybe
Speaker 1: the early part. And especially we've seen players kind of
Speaker 1: struggle with this Tommy John surgery where I mean we
Speaker 1: saw a quick, quick return from Bryce Harper, Jason Dimingez
Speaker 1: has kind of it seems like it's lingered with the
Speaker 1: one that he had, and so I don't I used
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more optimistic when position players
Speaker 1: were getting Tommy John surgery, but I think it does
Speaker 1: take a full twelve months to really get feel and right.
Speaker 1: That puts you right at this time again. Memorial Day
Speaker 1: for Jordan Westburg next year, who will be turning twenty
Speaker 1: eight in February. Time really snuck up us, snuck up
Speaker 1: on us fast with Tory and Westburg. But what are
Speaker 1: you doing with him going forward? Because this guy was
Speaker 1: somebody that you and I were both into. He was
Speaker 1: really great coming through the miners. Has not been able
Speaker 1: to stay healthy and this this is a pretty significant
Speaker 1: surgery that he's got to work his way back from
Speaker 1: and then fight his way through whoever jumps aheadline of him.
Speaker 3: In Baltimore, Yeah, this one's really tough because there's so
Speaker 3: much like under the Covers with Jordan Westburg, and this
Speaker 3: feels like a bat that could this is a thirty
Speaker 3: five homer bat. I don't feel like I'm over selling
Speaker 3: at that point, Like in a fully healthy approach, he
Speaker 3: is going to hit thirty five homers, driving ninety runs,
Speaker 3: hit two sixty, maybe creep up two seventy five on
Speaker 3: a good year. Like there's a ton of value here
Speaker 3: that is from an infielder perspective.
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I think it takes about a year to get back
Speaker 3: from something like this anymore, and with kind of the
Speaker 3: way that the Orioles have handled him, I just don't
Speaker 3: want to go through that, and so I'm I'm I'm
Speaker 3: probably treating him as kind of one of those like
Speaker 3: Dynasty keeper League stash kind of guys that I'm going
Speaker 3: to target the offseason when he's gonna be cheap because
Speaker 3: nobody wants to deal with it. Because I still think
Speaker 3: there's long term value to him. I think that he
Speaker 3: can be but I'm concerned about the how Longston taking
Speaker 3: you back because I think it's fair to say twenty
Speaker 3: twenty eight.
Speaker 2: It's like what your target is for Jordan Westberg to be.
Speaker 3: Like a full time healthy player, and that's what is
Speaker 3: There'll be his twenty twenty twenty nine year old season. Man,
Speaker 3: that's that that's.
Speaker 2: Hard to lean into.
Speaker 3: So yeah, if I can pick up a cheap share
Speaker 3: here or there and hold on to it without big penalty,
Speaker 3: I'm I'm on it. But I'm otherwise I'm kind of
Speaker 3: just forgetting about Jordan Westberg fix here year and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I'm there with you. Where like,
Speaker 1: if it cost me nothing to tack him on at
Speaker 1: the end of a roster, a draft, or he's a
Speaker 1: one dollar keeper in like a huge dynasty situation like Autune,
Speaker 1: then yeah, I'll think about it. But otherwise I don't
Speaker 1: think you need to be burning too much of your
Speaker 1: brain capital on Jordan Westburg going forward. Uh okay. Next
Speaker 1: injury we have is one of those UCL issues that
Speaker 1: has cropped up, which I mean, this one really sucks
Speaker 1: because Robbie Snelling mid his debut. We talked about it
Speaker 1: literally last week, where he had a bad first inning
Speaker 1: and it kind of unraveled on him. It made the
Speaker 1: stat line look much worse than it actually was performance wise, well,
Speaker 1: there might have been something looking there because he went
Speaker 1: down with a UCL sprain. In the meantime, everything here
Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be a Tommy John for Robbie
Speaker 1: Snelling as we're speaking on May nineteenth. But I guess
Speaker 1: there's a possibility he could go like the PRP route
Speaker 1: or the other restern rehab. But I mean the ominous news,
Speaker 1: the way that it broke, and then just the way
Speaker 1: that they've been really slow playing the second opinions and
Speaker 1: something and everything else was Snelling. It does seem like
Speaker 1: it's going to line up for Tommy John surgery. Kind
Speaker 1: Of an interesting situation here for the Marlins because they
Speaker 1: released Chris Paddock to bring up Robbie Snelling, then they
Speaker 1: brought up Braxton Garrett for Robbie Smelling spot. Robbie or
Speaker 1: Braxton Garrett looked like absolute garbage the two outings that
Speaker 1: he put together. That like in the first one he
Speaker 1: walked the bases loaded twice and got shredded by the Twins.
Speaker 1: Today he pitched this afternoon against the Braves, got shredded,
Speaker 1: and then got optioned right after the game. I watched
Speaker 1: the game. He looked awful that like I almost wonder
Speaker 1: if Braxton Garrett is nursing something too, because something changed,
Speaker 1: Like I was really excited for him. I was holding
Speaker 1: him in a couple of places. He started the season.
Speaker 1: In his first four games at Triple A was a
Speaker 1: point seven to seven with or a point seven to
Speaker 1: seven ear Ray with twenty three k's to eight walks
Speaker 1: or yeah, twenty three k's eight walks over twenty three
Speaker 1: and a third innings with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, and
Speaker 1: then since then he's just like can't stop walking. Everybody
Speaker 1: is a guy who has gone through a couple of
Speaker 1: Tommy Johns that, like you do, worry about the health arm,
Speaker 1: the health of the arm for Braxton Garrett, another guy
Speaker 1: who got old fast. Will be twenty nine in August,
Speaker 1: so we'll be fascinating to see what they do with
Speaker 1: Braxton Garrett as well as like trying to see who
Speaker 1: will probably fill this rotation spot. It's likely gonna be
Speaker 1: Ryan Gusto or Dax Fulton, but the Marlins have Thomas
Speaker 1: White hanging out. They've also had Carson Millbrandt has been
Speaker 1: pitching out of his mind at Double A, and I
Speaker 1: wonder if he gets a shot here soon. There's just
Speaker 1: a lot of interesting arms in that Marlin system. So
Speaker 1: I guess with all that I gave a lot of
Speaker 1: arms for you to maybe contemplate that to see. I
Speaker 1: know Thomas White would probably be your favorite, But if
Speaker 1: there's any other kind of leaders in the clubhouse for
Speaker 1: that rotation spot that you like, let me know. And
Speaker 1: then what are you doing with Robbie Snelling? Because this
Speaker 1: is a guy who looked really great before he came up.
Speaker 1: Like I said, he's probably going for TJ. But in
Speaker 1: a dynasty keeper situation, it's still going to be pretty
Speaker 1: young going into next year and is going to be
Speaker 1: somebody who I think could be back at the end
Speaker 1: of next year if it is like a especially if
Speaker 1: it's just like a brace situation. But we'll see what
Speaker 1: they do with Snelling. What are you doing with the
Speaker 1: Marlins and Robbie Snelling?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Marlins got thin fast you you
Speaker 3: called it all correctly. I'm I think Thomas White is
Speaker 3: the most interesting, but he's he's struggled a little in
Speaker 3: the minors this year. His control has not been good.
Speaker 3: Snelling has some droll issues, and he was making White
Speaker 3: look even worse because Snelling looked like the ace and
Speaker 3: why you just couldn't keep everybody off the base paths.
Speaker 3: So I'm pretty much avoiding the situation, to be honest, like,
Speaker 3: and I feel like Moore's coming because you know, you
Speaker 3: just have to imagine with the top of that rotation
Speaker 3: being you know, Max Meyer, Samuel contre Uri, Perez like
Speaker 3: a Contera, Like at some point he's gotta get traded, right,
Speaker 3: There's probably no doubt in that Perez and Max Meyer
Speaker 3: not the sascillly the moticums of health for us. And
Speaker 3: so I'm I'm kind of avoiding this situation. It just
Speaker 3: doesn't feel like something I want to get into from
Speaker 3: a snelling perspective. Man, he looked so good into last year.
Speaker 3: He looked not as good this this this spring, that
Speaker 3: the walks had jumped up a little bit, but still
Speaker 3: like the strikeouts were there, ail to go deep into games.
Speaker 3: All that that's there, and he's still just like twenty two,
Speaker 3: so you have to like his long term outlook. But
Speaker 3: I think this is going to kind of put a
Speaker 3: pretty big chink in the armor if it truly is
Speaker 3: kind of a Tommy John situation. I'm a little perplexed
Speaker 3: to how they're playing it, to be honest right now,
Speaker 3: because usually with these types of injuries that lead to
Speaker 3: Tommy John, it's like you get a first opinion, a
Speaker 3: few days later, you get a second opinion, you go
Speaker 3: into the knife, and you just get the process started.
Speaker 3: And they've really slow played I think he was going
Speaker 3: to see a specialist this Thursday, if I recall, which.
Speaker 2: Is But.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's really really odd the way that they've
Speaker 3: played it, so makes me think that maybe there's a
Speaker 3: little something else going on there. Maybe this is more
Speaker 3: of a Kyle Bradish type situation. Whether they really do
Speaker 3: think they can rehabit and get them back.
Speaker 2: How will did that work out for Bradish?
Speaker 3: But I still like it long term, But I think
Speaker 3: you have to put some cold water on this one
Speaker 3: right now until we really know what the injury it
Speaker 3: looks like. But most likely we're done for twenty six.
Speaker 3: We're pretty much done for twenty seven, and you're looking
Speaker 3: at twenty eight for that full return when he's played
Speaker 3: i think his twenty five year old season and you know,
Speaker 3: hopefully comes back better for it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the other factor here is that the Marlins
Speaker 1: have really started to slip behind in the nleast, they
Speaker 1: were just a couple of weeks ago, like kind of
Speaker 1: right in the thick of it all. But things have
Speaker 1: unraveled and the Phillies have gotten hot, and so they've
Speaker 1: even well before today, they'd sunk below the Mets. So like,
Speaker 1: that's how far they've gotten out of it. And you
Speaker 1: do wonder if this is the precursors Robbie Snelling Tommy
Speaker 1: John surgery is the precursor to kind of packing it
Speaker 1: in for the rest of twenty six and getting whatever
Speaker 1: juice they can out of seeing dy'al contra now and
Speaker 1: then reracking it back for twenty twenty seven. Because I
Speaker 1: do like this team. It's a nice, good young core
Speaker 1: that they're building. It's just a question of whether or
Speaker 1: not they can actually stay the course, unlike what they
Speaker 1: always do with Miami Marlins. Okay, well, that wraps up
Speaker 1: the actual kind of news and notes that we had.
Speaker 1: But I did have a couple just kind of other
Speaker 1: quick things I wanted to shoot by you, just to
Speaker 1: kind of get your temperature on where you're at with
Speaker 1: a few players, because you know, with our big overarching
Speaker 1: themes that we use every week, sometimes just like the
Speaker 1: little bits and Bobs we don't get to discuss, and
Speaker 1: you know, we only go once a week, so there's
Speaker 1: lots of performances that maybe we haven't been able to
Speaker 1: highlight as much. The first one I have is it's
Speaker 1: a little bit of a quiz first, because guess there
Speaker 1: is one team Believe well, I wracked this up yesterday
Speaker 1: when I was looking at the last thirty day stats
Speaker 1: on ras ball. That gives you like the player raider
Speaker 1: for the last thirty days. Essentially, it's a nice little
Speaker 1: tool to be able to see who's hot, who's not,
Speaker 1: kind of where things are going. And so yesterday this
Speaker 1: team had two top five players or like one top
Speaker 1: five player on hitting and one top five player on
Speaker 1: pitching in the last thirty days, and it was the
Speaker 1: only team to do so. Let me check to make
Speaker 1: sure if it's still the only team to do so
Speaker 1: over this other stretch. So it is now still, but
Speaker 1: I have to drop it to top seven. It's the only
Speaker 1: team with a player in the top seven hitters and
Speaker 1: the top seven pitchers. And do you know who they are?
Speaker 3: Oh geez, that's tough. Put me on pud on a
Speaker 3: spot here. I thought you were gonna go something like
Speaker 3: the Nationals because they're They're hitting has been so unbelievable
Speaker 3: and they've scored so many runs. I'm trying to rack
Speaker 3: my brain of which picture would be from them, Like
Speaker 3: I think christ has been that good or I don't know. Yeah,
Speaker 3: so I'm trying to think of who it could be.
Speaker 3: So gotta give me a clue here, give me give
Speaker 3: me a division or something here.
Speaker 1: Well, I might have seen one of these pictures in
Speaker 1: person over the past week.
Speaker 3: Uh are we talking the White Sox. Are we talking
Speaker 3: the White Sox? Are we talking Miguel Vargas.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes we are. Do you know who the picture is?
Speaker 2: Who's the picture?
Speaker 1: Who's contender? Davis Martin?
Speaker 2: I was not going to get Davis Martin.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've They've both been top seven players. I mean,
Speaker 1: Martin was in the top five until the Chase Burns
Speaker 1: start from last night, I believe, and so that along
Speaker 1: with the Missy Rousk one I think knocked him out. So,
Speaker 1: I mean, the White Sox have been super duper hot.
Speaker 1: They took it to the Cubs this past weekend in
Speaker 1: the Cross Down Cup. Murakami does not stop hitting homers.
Speaker 1: But I wanted to check in mostly on migl Vargas
Speaker 1: with you, because is this who Miguel Vargas like was
Speaker 1: touted to be for the Dodgers, and like it's this
Speaker 1: is one of the ones where I'm so close to
Speaker 1: it and watching enough White Sox games. I don't know
Speaker 1: if I can be totally impartial because it looks legit
Speaker 1: and he just absolutely ropes balls as well. Like I
Speaker 1: was actually at a game on Mother's Day where he
Speaker 1: roped a ball so hard that the person who does
Speaker 1: the fireworks for the home run celebration hit them before
Speaker 1: it actually even went out of the park and it
Speaker 1: actually donked right off the wall for a double in
Speaker 1: the first inning. It was a very surreal experience. I've
Speaker 1: never seen that before. But you look at the Savant
Speaker 1: page for Miguel Vargas, it looks bright red. The results
Speaker 1: have been otherworldly. I don't think he's ever going to
Speaker 1: be a batting average asset, but if he can be
Speaker 1: a guy who can push mid thirties homers and hit
Speaker 1: in the middle of a pretty decent lineup, I think
Speaker 1: you're looking at another guy who's really kind of reached
Speaker 1: a level that was previously expected of him. The way
Speaker 1: that Jordan Walker has and somebody who when I look
Speaker 1: at the profile, I feel pretty good about it going forward,
Speaker 1: where it's not like a lot of glaring holes. I'm
Speaker 1: sure there is somewhere in the swing that will be
Speaker 1: unlocked when people reevaluate how to approach micgil Vargas for
Speaker 1: the rest of the year. But he's only twenty six,
Speaker 1: looks like a pretty good dynasty keeper kind of target
Speaker 1: by even while he's hot for me. What's your take
Speaker 1: here on micgal Vargas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when he was coming up with the Dodgers,
Speaker 3: I mean, he actually was a guy that hit for average,
Speaker 3: like he was at three hundred pretty consistently in the miners,
Speaker 3: and the power was more of the question that was
Speaker 3: a little bit more middling twenty homer type power.
Speaker 2: But we were always excited about this guy that can
Speaker 2: maybe hit two ninety and hit.
Speaker 3: Twenty home runs, and he just never fully got a
Speaker 3: good run for for the Dodgers, even you know, until
Speaker 3: last year with the White Sox did he have a
Speaker 3: full run. And he was decent last year, but this
Speaker 3: year he's like a number of things look different. His
Speaker 3: plate approach is better, he's not chasing things as much,
Speaker 3: he's making better contact, he's being a little bit more
Speaker 3: aggressive of a hitter. You know, he's actually kind of underperformed. Honestly,
Speaker 3: feel like a batting average perspective is expecting that expected
Speaker 3: batting average. I think he's like the two sixties, and
Speaker 3: so you look at all these things and it's not
Speaker 3: like he's been incredibly lucky. I mean there's a little there, don't,
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, but it's it's not Davis Martin lucky.
Speaker 3: It is actually looks to be holding pretty well. And
Speaker 3: I really think that maybe the decreased pressure in this
Speaker 3: atmosphere and then a team is starting to play well
Speaker 3: around him, is just kind of raised the sea level
Speaker 3: for for a guy like Vargas, And I mean, it's
Speaker 3: it's hard to argue against it.
Speaker 2: Now. Is he gonna stay on this heater like he's
Speaker 2: doing right now?
Speaker 3: No, he's not. But you can easily see a guy
Speaker 3: that could really eclipse that twenty five homer threshold and
Speaker 3: be honestly, I think he could be a two sixty
Speaker 3: two sixty five bat And uh, the fact that he's
Speaker 3: also swiped six faces this year, it surprises me a
Speaker 3: little bit. He just feels a little more like a plotter.
Speaker 3: I guess we haven't played our favorite game in a while.
Speaker 3: Unless you already have looked, you're staring at it. But
Speaker 3: so seventy eighth percentile frenzy threat feed for bargains, which
Speaker 3: is surprised. He just doesn't doesn't feel like it for
Speaker 3: a guy that's six to twenty five, Like it's a
Speaker 3: pretty big, pretty big dude that they can move.
Speaker 2: So I don't see a lot of holes here.
Speaker 3: I'm going to have to be considering from my top
Speaker 3: one hundred when I when I post that this coming week,
Speaker 3: and so I'm I'm in, maybe there's some rose color
Speaker 3: glasses from the Chicago White Sox fan in you. But
Speaker 3: there's a lot to like here. And I mean, the
Speaker 3: guys still just what twenty six years old. I think
Speaker 3: people forget it how young he just is, and so
Speaker 3: he's still got room to grow.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean, I think the other thing that
Speaker 1: really stands out to me is that now it's two
Speaker 1: hundred and two played appearances where we've seen a market
Speaker 1: upgrade in the batspeed now too, with the approach all working.
Speaker 1: So it's not like sometimes I worry because he is
Speaker 1: up almost three ticks. It's actually like right on the nose.
Speaker 1: He's up three point one miles per an hour on
Speaker 1: the bat speed on savant where sometimes I do worry
Speaker 1: where like, especially somebody like Vargas who already was like
Speaker 1: a little bit of a strikeout issue, strikeout prone player,
Speaker 1: that the increased bat speed can even create a bigger
Speaker 1: hole in the swing. And just like you know, especially
Speaker 1: in somebody in Vargas's situation where you know there was
Speaker 1: so much hype coming up and you know he's feeling
Speaker 1: the pressure of being able to or to have to
Speaker 1: produce that you worry that sometimes he goes to that
Speaker 1: last straw too quickly. But I think this is actually
Speaker 1: like more of a development piece where he did find
Speaker 1: the extra ticks of bat speed and held on to
Speaker 1: his plate discipline in terms of I mean, it wasn't
Speaker 1: fantastic from the strikeout perspective, but he's always had a
Speaker 1: decent eye in terms of being able to walk. And
Speaker 1: so that's why, Yeah, I feel pretty good about what
Speaker 1: we've been seeing out of Vargus, especially now that like
Speaker 1: we're two hunder plate appearance is in like it's gonna
Speaker 1: take a different approach maybe to find if he can't
Speaker 1: hit something on the outside corner or something something like that.
Speaker 1: But it's gonna take like a very specific setup because
Speaker 1: when I've been watching Miguel Vargas at bats, he doesn't
Speaker 1: beat himself in the box the way he used to.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And the thing I also have to like for
Speaker 3: a young guy, he doesn't have split issues. He has
Speaker 3: lefties and righties. He can play every day, and that's
Speaker 3: really really big for a lot of young guys coming
Speaker 3: up now, which seems that they're struggling with that more
Speaker 3: and more than what I feel like has been in
Speaker 3: the past. So that's completely unstatistically relevant, but it definitely
Speaker 3: feels like that's been a play.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then I mean the other guy that I
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about with you was somebody else who's
Speaker 1: also just been teeing off over the past few weeks
Speaker 1: is JJ Bulde, who went to Vanderbilt University. Right behind
Speaker 1: you in your hotel room, where it's actually it's eerily
Speaker 1: similar to Miguel Vargas, where like the plate approach and
Speaker 1: everything looks pretty comparative to what he's been before. But
Speaker 1: like the bats be ticked up, in this case, it
Speaker 1: went up roughly three miles an hour. That was again
Speaker 1: three point one, So that's kind of eerie. But for
Speaker 1: some reason I don't feel as good about Day. I
Speaker 1: think part of it is because it's only eighty four
Speaker 1: light appearances and I don't I should probably look up
Speaker 1: I'll do it probably while you dive into BLI dat
Speaker 1: and discuss it a little bit, like where at what
Speaker 1: point that the bat speed actually becomes like a little
Speaker 1: bit more sticky, because like otherwise, when you look at
Speaker 1: the actual page for the Savants stats and kind of
Speaker 1: bars for Jay to Blood Day, it is more of
Speaker 1: a profile that screams to me hot streak. Where we
Speaker 1: discussed this we've touched on a little bit over the
Speaker 1: pod over the past few months where like especially in
Speaker 1: the season, and I warned you a little bit about
Speaker 1: it with like dominant Canzone last year because we felt
Speaker 1: it was really easy to do this with Canzone where
Speaker 1: the Savant page looked otherworldly like Ben Rice Aaron Judge
Speaker 1: level kind of read, but it was more of like
Speaker 1: a hot streak. And the way that I can you
Speaker 1: can really see it in a smaller performance is when
Speaker 1: the sweet spot percentage is just like off the charts
Speaker 1: and you're just like, Okay, this dude is good, but
Speaker 1: he's not like Aaron Judge or Vladimir Guerrero and he
Speaker 1: doesn't have that type of reputation where I mean, but
Speaker 1: Day was a little closer to that because he was
Speaker 1: the number four overall pick in twenty nineteen and certainly
Speaker 1: has had a lot of the pedigree. Is still only
Speaker 1: twenty eight. But are you with me or against me
Speaker 1: in saying and thinking that, like, you believe more in
Speaker 1: Vargas Bla Day, you'll ride the hot streak, but to
Speaker 1: actually buy in and especially like to buy at market
Speaker 1: value for him right now in a dynasty or keeper situation,
Speaker 1: you wouldn't be doing that on Bla Day because you
Speaker 1: need to see more.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're probably right. If you try to
Speaker 3: compare the two had to have, there's a number of
Speaker 3: notable differences. Bladey is a very pole heavy hitter and
Speaker 3: a very good hitters ballpark. He is platoon all day long,
Speaker 3: and this is something we kind of saw with Mike
Speaker 3: Kastrimsky coming into this year, and it's kind of teams
Speaker 3: of adjusted back and he's been banged up as well,
Speaker 3: but a guy that really just feast on pitching when
Speaker 3: the team's just like, I've never gonna let you see
Speaker 3: another guy, you know, another in his case, another what
Speaker 3: would be lefty bat, lefty pitcher, because actually I think
Speaker 3: the last three days, I haven't looked today, he was
Speaker 3: like over for every game and actually started him against
Speaker 3: the lefty and that started the kind of that run
Speaker 3: of games, and that's that's been a little bit tough
Speaker 3: for him. And so I do see it a little
Speaker 3: bit more as a hot streak. I think he this
Speaker 3: is the player that he is, is the player that
Speaker 3: was drafted. This is the skill level, but he's never
Speaker 3: truly been able to put it together. And I think
Speaker 3: this is easier to kind of adjust back for teams.
Speaker 3: I don't think there's been a note ofble like all
Speaker 3: of a sudden, he's you know, pulled up a max
Speaker 3: months he got glasses or something like that. You know,
Speaker 3: it's not like the contact rates have really improved. You know,
Speaker 3: he's just been aggressive when he sees a fastball and
Speaker 3: takes advantage like that. That's what's happening here. So I
Speaker 3: think Vargus is a better all around player. I think
Speaker 3: he's got more overall upside and maybe better on the downside,
Speaker 3: some type of things where I think day is on
Speaker 3: like a more of a hot streak. It's a hot
Speaker 3: streak is worth kind of gambling if you need to.
Speaker 3: But I've seen this more and more or less years
Speaker 3: with these kind of platoon bats, the carry carpenters of
Speaker 3: the world, Jesus the days of the world. Like, it's
Speaker 3: just really hard to rely on because if they if
Speaker 3: they end up going a little bit of a cold streak,
Speaker 3: it's really cold for a long time until they figure
Speaker 3: things out. It's not they don't kind of they don't
Speaker 3: play enough to work themselves out, and it's much easier
Speaker 3: to lose playing time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the meantime, I did not find a definitive
Speaker 1: answer in terms of like when bat speed stabilizes. I
Speaker 1: will say that like it is one of the squish
Speaker 1: year kind of stats on the Savant page because it
Speaker 1: is a situation where they make sure to carve out
Speaker 1: like the non competitive swings. But I think also what
Speaker 1: I've found when I'm looking at savant pages and seeing
Speaker 1: when people are running hot, like it does feel like
Speaker 1: the bat speed is a little bit up, And something
Speaker 1: that indicates that too is I'm looking at this Leaderboard
Speaker 1: and this review for Mike podhorser at rotographs that came
Speaker 1: out last year, where actually around this time in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five he started kind of tracking bat speeds and
Speaker 1: how they had increased since twenty twenty four, and then
Speaker 1: at the end of last year he came back and
Speaker 1: with their total bat speed like for the rest of
Speaker 1: the year, and it varies a little bit, where like
Speaker 1: most of it was relatively sticky, but then you could
Speaker 1: see where some of the players who like started off
Speaker 1: hot last year, where the ones that especially stand out
Speaker 1: to me are like as in Barger, Brett Baby, and
Speaker 1: I'll link to this in the show notes too, so
Speaker 1: you can kind of see the list, even Jorge Polanco,
Speaker 1: where it looked like the bat speed was up three
Speaker 1: ticks at the beginning of twenty twenty five, but then
Speaker 1: by the end of the year it had regressed down
Speaker 1: to more of like a one and one and a half.
Speaker 1: So that's something to keep in mind here with what
Speaker 1: you're looking at with both Vargas and Bladey, I think,
Speaker 1: but like, honestly, most of these dudes, it looked like
Speaker 1: a lot of it stuck because usually to get that
Speaker 1: large of a jump and bat speed increase, and also
Speaker 1: to do it over the length of time that Vargas
Speaker 1: has done it. It takes off season work. That's not
Speaker 1: just like a fluke as opposed to when you're looking
Speaker 1: at a smaller sample the way that Bladet is, and
Speaker 1: you know, even his savant page, all those bars are
Speaker 1: still like semi see through because they haven't actually reached
Speaker 1: the qualification stage. I would be a little bit more
Speaker 1: leery of that, but I think there is a possibility
Speaker 1: that you're seeing a little bit more out of Bladet's profile.
Speaker 1: You also put that in Cincinnati, it does become more intriguing.
Speaker 1: So I would say I'm not totally out on BA day.
Speaker 1: I'm more lukewarm. But honestly, if you find somebody else
Speaker 1: in your league who is has BLA day and you
Speaker 1: can meet in the middle and they're not like buying
Speaker 1: new three three miles per hour up bat speed bl day,
Speaker 1: but they also were anticipating a fallback, there could be
Speaker 1: a little bit of a buying a window there if
Speaker 1: you actually think that there's the possibility that he's a
Speaker 1: true three plus mile pan hour batsbeed guy over last
Speaker 1: year and not somebody who is going to settle a
Speaker 1: little bit more back to his historical rates. That was
Speaker 1: a lot of nerd stuff that also maybe did not
Speaker 1: answer the question very well. But does that sound about
Speaker 1: right to what your expectations would be around batspeed?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I mean generally it is something
Speaker 3: that is it is a skill like and I think
Speaker 3: you forget that it's not just you swing hard as
Speaker 3: you can because you got to make contact. But it
Speaker 3: usually does take an actual dedicated adjustment workout regimen, rework
Speaker 3: your swing to like increase that bat speed. Do you
Speaker 3: think there's also their value to see what that looks
Speaker 3: like over a season for guys that kind of start
Speaker 3: hot and then as they start to struggle, they start
Speaker 3: to grasp, start chasing things, bad speed is going to
Speaker 3: fall off. It's still it's still a statistic we're learning
Speaker 3: and trying to figure out. But I think I use
Speaker 3: bass speed more of maybe a kickout than a driver
Speaker 3: at this point. Like, if you have good bat speed,
Speaker 3: I'll consider you for other things. If you have low
Speaker 3: bat speed, I'm much more concerned. It is kind of
Speaker 3: the way that I've looked at bad speed. So if
Speaker 3: you're if you're squaring things up and you have good
Speaker 3: bat speed and you have good plate approach. I'm really
Speaker 3: interested in that kind of pro That's a then Rice
Speaker 3: type of profile. Jordan Walker's kind of tried to do
Speaker 3: a little bit as well, right with his changes this year.
Speaker 3: But then you get into those other guys that don't
Speaker 3: have the beast speed and they, you know, knock a
Speaker 3: few homers own people like, oh my goodness, this guy's coat.
Speaker 3: I was like, no, it's it's that's not sustainable. You
Speaker 3: cannot be a power hitter without the bast speed.
Speaker 1: You just can't. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. And I
Speaker 1: think it's also like if you want to see how
Speaker 1: it's important, just look at like the output from jj
Speaker 1: bldey in twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six. Like
Speaker 1: it shows all the world of difference. Obviously, the other
Speaker 1: taggle is still percentage or like your your launch angle
Speaker 1: because I mean ask for name or tattis junior. But like,
Speaker 1: but like it is a it is a pretty big
Speaker 1: indicator to seeing actual growth from players. So it it
Speaker 1: becomes just more and more sticky the more and more
Speaker 1: that I look into it in terms of like bat
Speaker 1: speed equals good badd where like especially once you start
Speaker 1: getting above the fiftieth percentile. I think that's when you're
Speaker 1: starting to look at guys that you're you're diving into
Speaker 1: because if they're not producing in there above like the
Speaker 1: fiftieth percentile, you're trying to figure out what the tweet
Speaker 1: can be, because that's how you're gonna find I think
Speaker 1: the next hitter to unlock for fantasy nowadays, where it's
Speaker 1: less so in terms of other plate approach components, where
Speaker 1: this is the one number that people seem to be
Speaker 1: really honed in on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just just go to Baseball savon and sort by
Speaker 3: bat speed or squared up one of the two, uh,
Speaker 3: either one, and then look at the other. And that's
Speaker 3: it's very evident. The Aaron Judges of the world, you know,
Speaker 3: the power hitters, they have high bat speed and they
Speaker 3: square everything up, and that's that's what makes it work.
Speaker 3: And generally need some flat balls too, the ideas that
Speaker 3: you need them too. But and then you can kind
Speaker 3: of go down the list and see like it's like, oh,
Speaker 3: that's a that's a soft hitter. That's not he's not
Speaker 3: a power guy, but he's wing with that bass. He
Speaker 3: just doesn't square it up enough. This guy squares up
Speaker 3: all the time. He just doesn't swing hard ballism travel
Speaker 3: then all and you see the guy's like, man, he's
Speaker 3: squaring things up pretty well and he's got some mass speed,
Speaker 3: but it just doesn't feel like he's done it. I
Speaker 3: think Alec Burlsen was a guy that was kind of
Speaker 3: that way this year and last year and lo and behold,
Speaker 3: he's been pretty much unvaluable. And so those those metrics
Speaker 3: that now that we have in the last year and
Speaker 3: a half that they've they've meant a lot and there
Speaker 3: they can be used pretty well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the two guys to really
Speaker 1: watch for this going forward are Jack kagling On and
Speaker 1: Cam Smith, where they both also are kind of having
Speaker 1: launch angle issues as well. Where and the weird thing
Speaker 1: with Cam Smith too is like it's insane bat speed,
Speaker 1: but the exit filo in the hard hit percentage is
Speaker 1: not good either, which actually kind of leans a little
Speaker 1: bit more towards like a Jordan Walker issue. I think
Speaker 1: in camp Smith's profile and Jack, I was worried about
Speaker 1: this a little bit, like I'm confounded. I don't know
Speaker 1: if he can fix it.
Speaker 3: He's got the issue of he just he's a ground
Speaker 3: ball guy, Yeah, exactly, And that's but you're just waiting.
Speaker 3: He is one tweak away. He is one tweak away
Speaker 3: with that player approach, and he can be a perty
Speaker 3: homer guy. Like honestly, he can be. I've tried to
Speaker 3: trade from a few times myself, just hoping that somebody
Speaker 3: is just soured because they've been through so much. Because
Speaker 3: it's there's not many guys out there right now that
Speaker 3: I look at and say, you're performing outside a top
Speaker 3: one hundred hitter, and you could be a top three
Speaker 3: round hitter, and the tags definitely fits that bill. Now
Speaker 3: does he make the adjustment, we'll see, But yeah, he
Speaker 3: could easily go with Cabrian Hayes route as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and well.
Speaker 2: That's not a compliment, by the way.
Speaker 1: And I mean that's also something to keep in mind
Speaker 1: because I'm astill like also trying to file it away
Speaker 1: for draft season next year because I think what I
Speaker 1: will do with some of like my last roster spots
Speaker 1: is like just go to the previous year bat speed
Speaker 1: Leader's list, see who's still on the board. And like,
Speaker 1: especially if cam Smith keeps up this current production pace,
Speaker 1: like he's gonna be pretty much free at the draft table,
Speaker 1: I think, and if you're trying to mine and hunt
Speaker 1: for the next Jordan Walker, I think this is how
Speaker 1: you do it. Some of these guys won't, you know,
Speaker 1: fully put it together. But the more and more you
Speaker 1: look at this list nowadays, it is ninety percent maybe
Speaker 1: of like guys who have put it together. You know,
Speaker 1: some of the guys who haven't are even like Garrett Mitchell,
Speaker 1: but like that's more of an injury issue, a guesst
Speaker 1: In Ramirez where a little bit yes, but and Matt
Speaker 1: Wallner just not enough contact because that is also like
Speaker 1: the other downside where it can go of, Like if
Speaker 1: you swing it really hard, but you swing with reckless
Speaker 1: abandon you could end up in the Matt Wallner Joey
Speaker 1: Gallo territory where there's just not enough contact for it
Speaker 1: to ever work. Period. Okay, well, I think that's gonna
Speaker 1: wrap us up for this very kind of wildcard, loose
Speaker 1: ended open episode. It does feel strange, but I think
Speaker 1: we're going to wrap it up. Brew. Let everybody know
Speaker 1: where they can reach you on socials and read your work.
Speaker 3: YEP, find me on Twitter, ex Blue Sky Gabrewer one
Speaker 3: seven Find me on Rasball on the weekends doing top
Speaker 3: one hundred, hit your rankings and hitter profiles.
Speaker 2: Cooly work from folks find you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can read my work over at Baseball Perspectus.
Speaker 1: You can find me on blue Sky at mcool seven
Speaker 1: spelled out co u ill on the cool just like
Speaker 1: my last name. And if you want to contact the podcast,
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Speaker 1: build our audience. And with that, we're gonna wrap it
Speaker 1: up for this week. We will be back roughly same time,
Speaker 1: same place next week. It is a holiday week in
Speaker 1: the USA, so we will kind of keep that in
Speaker 1: mind as we schedule things out. But should be lots
Speaker 1: of great baseball coming up collegiately and in the professional ranks,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna have lots of great things to talk
Speaker 1: about all summer long. Stick around everybody, because we'll see
Speaker 1: you on this podcast.