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Speaker 1: Latest interview of Elon Musk audience.

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Speaker 2: And as you can see, I'm still trying to monetize hope.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you look like you're in great shape.

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Speaker 3: I'm doing great last time, like.

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Speaker 1: A sort of use them things going on or what.

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Speaker 3: It's Uh, it's our longevity X prize.

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Speaker 2: We're we're getting there, but we're getting there, and I

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think I think in our last conversation, Uh, you're getting

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on board with the idea of extended longevity.

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Speaker 1: Yes, uh, yeah.

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Speaker 3: Okay that some degree.

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Speaker 4: I mean, like I don't know if we want to

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ever want to live or whatever, but I think, uh,

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health spend and not you know, having an extended period

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of senescence where you're just grueling on yourself sounds.

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Speaker 1: Like a good idea. We won't to avoid that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So, first off, congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and

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x AI ball or move us going to power humanity's

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first dicense WARM. So I'm curious, truly truly is uh,

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what's your timeline for launching these data centers and how

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much bandwidth do you think you can get in the

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first year. Give us a sense of the speed at

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which you're going to be making this happen.

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Speaker 4: Uh. Yeah, so SpaceX is has space space x is

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in the quiet period. I can't actually tell you things

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that would cause the problems.

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Speaker 2: Uh yeah, oh, I'll leave it.

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Speaker 3: I'll leave it that.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate that, but I can't wait for uh for

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the speed. You know, we had a conversation here on

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Monday with with Eric Schmidt uh and with one of

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the leads from one of the other hyper scalers I

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mentioned who. But I'm curious where you feel we are

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in recursive self improvement?

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Speaker 3: Are we there?

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Speaker 2: Do you see rock doing recursive self improvement at this point?

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And how what's the timeline for a G I and

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a S I give us a sense of that?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a

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while here. You say it's because if you mean by

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like recursive self improvement without a human.

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Speaker 1: In the loop, is that what you mean?

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Speaker 2: I do on the on the AI software side.

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Speaker 4: I mean humans are gradually getting less and less in

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the loop on the recursive self improvement. So you know,

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every successive model is built by the one before it,

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so that that that that is happening to a large degree,

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but it's it's not yet fully automated.

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Speaker 1: It may be there end of this year, but not

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later than the next year.

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Speaker 3: Do you see a heart take off at that point?

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Speaker 1: We're in the heart takele.

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Speaker 3: Okay right now?

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Speaker 4: Yes, I mean look at I mean, at this point

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I go to sleep, there's some passive AI breakthrough, and

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when I wake up there's another one.

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard to keep track. Honestly, it's a bit

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of a headspinner.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think a lot of the head spinning is

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happening from you too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, Brook stating pretty well and in some metrics,

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by some metrics is the best. For example, it's the

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best at predicting things to which you know, it's arguably the.

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Speaker 1: Best metrics for intelligence. The new Brook four point two

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zero is.

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Speaker 4: It's really really good. We're currently behind on coding. The

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reason I was but like for this was that I

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was just in a giant sort of all hands on coding,

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just going through all of the things that need to

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happen to essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding,

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which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know,

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we should probably get there by the middle of this year,

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and and then I think people don't quite understand just

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how much intelligence there will be, or you know, just

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how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree

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that is impossible to fully understand. But you could stillly

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imagine a situation where we let's say, let's say a

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million times more energy is harnessed then all of Earth's

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current electricity usage. That would slowly be roughly a millionth

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of the Sun's energy output. So essentially, if you increase

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us economy by a factor of a million, it's still

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roughly a trillion, since we're a trillion of the Sun's energy.

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If you increase that's economy and in terms of electricity

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usage by roughly a million, you will be roughly one

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million only of the Sun's energy harnessed.

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Speaker 1: But but what is it?

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Speaker 4: What is what is an economy or an intelligence using

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a million times more electricity than all of the civilization

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think about.

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Speaker 1: Or look like or do. It's going to be something

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pretty magnificent.

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Speaker 4: The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating that level of intelligence.

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But it's safe to say, well, it will solve everything

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you can possibly think of. Yes, long trip, but you're

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being you know, certainly one of them, and I do

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enjoy your unrelenting optimism.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Bill.

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Speaker 1: I see, I see if you're hope hope.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, you've taken a heart monetizing hope, which is

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pretty funny.

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Speaker 2: It was, it was, it was Grox. It was grox

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marketing advice to me when you roasted beyond right.

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Speaker 4: And saying you monetize but if you've been monetizing misery.

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Speaker 5: But yes, for sure, Yeah, but yeah, just the we

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you have AI and robots are gonna.

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Speaker 4: Increase the like economic output or by by so many

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olders magitude, we cannot possibly comprehend it.

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Speaker 2: We're likely in the very short time to become a

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minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of

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intelligence on this planet.

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Speaker 4: Yes, not even on this planet, but in the Solar system.

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Yes for sure, because like you, you know, your best

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case outcome for Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth

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of the Sun's energy.

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Speaker 1: That's your best case.

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Speaker 4: Outcome if you if you, if you genertraate intelligence only.

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Speaker 6: On Earth, intercept it right, Yes, yes, because roughly one

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roughly half of bellion that the Sun's energy hits Earth,

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and that's the vast majority of energy that that's out there,

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but that would be access.

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Speaker 4: So uh, really the intelligence and the Soul system will

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be many autismatic tooth greater than the intelligence on Earth itself.

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Speaker 2: How ask a question, Elan, how far out can you see?

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How many years out can you make reasonable predictions?

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Speaker 3: Right now?

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Speaker 1: It's hard to verdict.

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Speaker 4: The the path exactly is es actually if it because

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often things are kind of an S curve or a

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series of S curves where it's slow, grows exponentially, hits

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Lenia zone and then goes loger with me, that generally

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has been what I've seen with the breakthroughs in AI

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AI for example, is you'll you'll there'll be some breakthrough,

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it'll do h have an S cove, but and then

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it looks like it's just going to go to infinity,

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but then you hit love rhythmic returns until there's another breakthrough,

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So progressing, it's just a sort of series of you know,

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sort of overlapping s coves or connect with s coves.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there was a point where you could probably

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predict out a decade or two decades.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts now, Okay, this is gonna sound

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pretty crazy.

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Speaker 2: It's okay, we we've been we've been talking about.

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Speaker 4: Your separate acceptive audience to wild prognostications. Yes, i'd say

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the economy is ten times this, it's kind of size

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in ten years greater than.

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Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, you're really saying something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you'd said triple digit growth in in five plus

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years from now on on GDP in ten next the economy.

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Speaker 3: But in terms of your ability.

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Speaker 4: Like, I feel like that's that's that's a tan X

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and roughly ten years.

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Speaker 1: I feel as actually.

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Speaker 4: A fairly comfortable prediction with there's no if there's like

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world War three or something that that could put a

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think and those plans of those expectations. Yeah, but in

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the absence of World War three, if Connor trends continue,

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I would say the the economy tenaxes and ten years.

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Speaker 3: Love it.

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Speaker 2: Could you give us We had a bunch of a

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base on the moon, Yes, and we'll and we'll have

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we'll have people on Mars. I have mass drivers on

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the moon, Yes, I.

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Speaker 1: Think so in ten years. I think I think we'll

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have a mass driver in the moon in ten years.

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Speaker 3: I love it.

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Speaker 2: Gerard k O'Neil's vision being fulfilled. We had four robots

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on stage here this year on at the Abundant Summit.

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Speaker 3: I look forward to Optimists.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious Optimists three timeline and in particular, when can

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I buy one or two? When's when do you expect

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Optimists to go into commercial for commercial sale or will

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you be leasing it?

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Speaker 4: Well, we're in the file stages of completion of Optimist three,

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which is really going to be by far the most

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advanced robot in the world.

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Speaker 1: Nothing's even close.

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Speaker 4: In fact, I haven't even sent any seen any demos

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of robots that are as good as Optimist three. Frankly,

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maybe they're out there or their secret or something. I

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don't know, but you know, and I have to make

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sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well.

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Speaker 3: Of course, course we're streaming this on x Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Okay, this is pretty public and acted. Yes, yeah, I

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think we'll start production on Optimus three the summer, but

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very slow at first. Yeah, like a you know, the

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sort of classic s CO ramp of manufacturing units versus time,

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and then probably reached high only production and around someone

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next year, and then.

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Speaker 1: You know, we'll have off to us for you know,

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design clean next year.

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Speaker 4: I try to release a new robot design every year

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I'm interprove up design every year.

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Speaker 2: When when Dave Bundon and I were at the gigafactory,

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it was an extraordinary experience, eleven and a half million

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square feet for the Tesla, and then I think you

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said you're building out nine and a half million square

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feet for Optimus there as well, which is which is extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's put my square feet around on is. Yeah,

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I had to be. That'll be quite that.

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Speaker 4: That's gonna be a a new factory designed too, like

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it's not different from other factories.

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Speaker 2: How far before we have robots building robots? I mean

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you automated so much of the Giga factory ready where

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they're humans playing a small role? Do the robots just

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play the role that humans are playing in that regard,

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we still have a.

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Speaker 4: Lot of humans building things, you know, Tesla direct employees

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or building things or like basically people in the factory

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or either building or managing people are building.

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Speaker 1: It's rough one hundred thousand, so we have a lot

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of people. There's a total headcounts around one hundred and fifty.

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Speaker 4: K, of of which two thirds are you know, in

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the factory at one point or another.

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Speaker 1: And then our suppliers is probably.

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Speaker 4: Maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers

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type of thing.

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Speaker 1: So so it's a lot of people. What we do expect,

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that is.

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Speaker 4: Is that the output per per person at TESLA becomes

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very very high. So we're not planning any like layoffs

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or reductions at personnel. In fact, we will increase our headcount,

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but the output per human that tells us going to

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get nutty high.

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Speaker 1: When we were like believing, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: When we were together, we discussed the idea of sustainable

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abundance on our podcast, and you reinforce the idea that

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we have a coming age of universal high income, which

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has become a point of discussion beyond UBI. But I'm

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just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we

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get there. Have you reflected that any further? And and

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more so, you know, we talked about a time frame

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of civil unrest, you know.

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Speaker 3: Two three, four, five years.

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Speaker 2: Uh, probably a lot of COVID like checks in the

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interim until we get to a demonetization, uh and a

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you know deflation that leads us to U HI any

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more reflections on that?

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Speaker 3: So really people need that hope in that vision.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to fixular I don't think we should

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be sort of a basement.

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Speaker 4: We need to we do need to be careful because

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the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're

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not all great. But I at this point, I I

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do agree with you that it's it's likely to be great.

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You know, it's probably eighty said likely, maybe more likely

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to be great. And and I do think we'll have

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universal han income. We're basically just issue money to people,

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you know, and and the really just because the output

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of goods and services will so far exceed the money

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supply that you know, that that that effectively you have deflation,

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because just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs

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and goods and services to the money supply. So that

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that's so if if the rate of growth of goods

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and services par exceeds the rate of growth of the

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money supply, which I predict will happen, then you will

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have deflation.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and a lot of a lot of people spinning

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up new companies competing against each other, driving the price

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down and increasing the variability and deflation faster and faster.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's basically AI and Robot's going to make SMAR

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stuff and for any services that they will.

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Speaker 1: Actually run out of things to do for the humans.

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Speaker 4: They'll just run out of things that do the humans,

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and then they well, you know, there's.

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Speaker 1: Only so much that humans can even express that they want.

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Speaker 4: So you go back to my example of like, if

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you go a million times greater than the most economy,

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you've long since saturated all human desire.

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Speaker 1: You know, like maybe like if you go to a thousand.

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Speaker 4: Times more than our card economy a thousand times, you

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probably have already saturated saturated human anything people can think

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of that they want.

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Speaker 2: So do you think the value of money is going

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to significantly decrease?

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Speaker 3: Will it? Will we go post capitalist? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I think money will stop being relevant at some point

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in the future.

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Speaker 3: So just as you're becoming.

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Speaker 4: It's probably something like an in Bank's culture sort of future,

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And I think the AI down the road will really.

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Speaker 1: Not use human currency.

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Speaker 4: It will just care about power and mass, wattage and tonnage.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of ironic then, right, just as you're

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becoming a multi trillionaire, money starts to have less value.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty much. Uh, yeah, you know that's all the stuff.

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Speaker 4: It's just really just trillion just represents like some percentage

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ownership and companies that I you know, boilt and it's

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not like sitting in Oh god, it's just literally I

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don't know, a percentage of the companies.

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Speaker 1: The companies are doing lots of useful things. The value

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the company grows percentage of.

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Speaker 4: The companies, and that's the sums up to that number,

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which seems high.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's I was interviewed by somebody who

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was asking me about your your drive, what drives you?

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And I said, Elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven

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to make life in the world better by just solving

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the biggest problems over and over and over again. And

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if someone else was solving them, he wouldn't need to.

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But no one else is solving them. So I just

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want to say, you know, thank you for that, Tom,

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thank you for that.

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Speaker 1: You're welcome.

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Speaker 3: I am curious.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that democracy and our modern institutions can

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keep up with this supersonic tsunami coming our way? Are

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they just gonna fall in its way? They're just going

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to break down? How do we deal?

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Speaker 1: M I mean, it's cool the singularity for a reason.

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Speaker 4: You know that it's hard to predict what happens, and

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that in the singularity.

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Speaker 1: I mean, CrOx logo is the singularity.

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Speaker 3: I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you, by

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the way, it's gorgeous.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you. Yeah, it's so the light. The light

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that the the halo around a black hole is the

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mass and ladder falling in type of thing.

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Speaker 1: It's hard.

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Speaker 4: It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity, but

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it's going to be very interesting, like we're going to

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live in the future will be very entertaining.

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Speaker 1: Of that, I am confident.

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Speaker 4: And I think also like AI and robotics also the

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only way we're going to solve our budget deficit frankly,

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and not just go bankrupt as a country. So I'm

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I'm you know, you've had an influence on me and

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that I'm like, I've just decided to be more optimistic.

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Speaker 1: It's like we just should be more optimistic.

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Speaker 3: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Pal. You know that I.

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Speaker 4: Wasn't an optimist, but I was like, maybe running a

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little too much around the negative stuff.

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Speaker 2: It's all it's all upside being an optimist and a

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realist a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. You don't want to be complacent

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or just assume everything's.

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Speaker 1: Going to go well.

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Speaker 4: But try to make it go well.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, there will be some pretty amazing things

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that happen.

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Speaker 4: So if you've got humanoid robots that are that have

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very high dexterity and uh and and and are incredibly smart,

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it means that everyone on Earth will have access to

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better medical care than than than the richest person on Earth, which,

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by the way, I would say, like, you know, if

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I'm allegedly the rich person, would I think, actually, sovereigns

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are richer than me, by the way, But it's like,

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you know, I like I had to have like a

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like an ex surgery three times because the first two

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ones were done wrong.

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Speaker 1: You know, like this is I'm like what that you know?

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Speaker 4: So and I'm like my back still hurts a little bit.

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I'm like, can AI police sew back fan?

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Speaker 1: That would be a huge win.

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Speaker 3: And I think it well, yep, so you.

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Speaker 1: Know that fan sucks.

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Speaker 4: I think that's maybe like you know, sometimes why if

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people get grumpy when they get old, this because back faint.

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Speaker 1: It's like you back bets all the time and you

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can't sleep while you're gonna be bruffy.

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Speaker 3: We had.

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Speaker 2: We had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he's

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going into human trials with ER one hundred is partial

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pagetic reprogramming and uh one of the one of the

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papers recently published shows it enables joint repair and so

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back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates.

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Speaker 1: So that would be amazing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, for surely average happened to several pre humans.

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Speaker 1: Would just go up from tremendously if you.

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Speaker 4: Just saw back fane, because it's not a question of

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of if you'll get back pain as when you know

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you'll get back pain.

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Speaker 1: I keep on a good design.

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Speaker 2: I keep on inviting you to come down to Fountain

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Life in uh in Dallas, will U will help you out.

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But sometime when you have.

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Speaker 4: To you have like what do you I understand like

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that you can get like mrin catscans and everything, but

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like what do you do with that?

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Speaker 3: You know, it's like happy to happy to send you

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the list. I'll d M you the list. Yeah exactly.

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Speaker 2: Uh, you know, listen, you've been so generous. Next up

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on stage with me is one of another great Moonshot entrepreneur,

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Ben Lamb, who runs Colossal, the the extinction Company. Uh,

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you know, the Wily Mammoth and fifteen other species. I

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heard I heard you say you might want to many

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Willly mammoth.

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Speaker 3: Is that is that true?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I think it would be really cool to have a

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pet minister Willie Mammoth.

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Speaker 1: That would be pretty epic.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll put a word in with you for you

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with with with.

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Speaker 4: That would be adorable little things that's running around, trumpeting

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away and it's like, look at the it's a grateful bed.

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Speaker 3: Amazing.

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Speaker 4: I can somebody please do Jurassic Park in realize? Well,

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I definitely got even if there was some risk of death.

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Speaker 1: Be super cool.

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Speaker 2: I think if anybody is going to do that, it's

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it's Ben Lamb and Colossal. He's really he's engineering living

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life products. Someone asked him recently if he can make

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a Pikachu and he said probably.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Well Jurassic Jurassic World whatever, that would be.

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Speaker 3: Great, all right, I'll ask him. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Elon, so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing.

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Thank you, Thank you, my friend.

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Speaker 3: Let's give it up for Elon Musk.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.

