Speaker 1: Latest interview of Elon Musk audience.
Speaker 2: And as you can see, I'm still trying to monetize hope.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you look like you're in great shape.
Speaker 3: I'm doing great last time, like.
Speaker 1: A sort of use them things going on or what.
Speaker 3: It's Uh, it's our longevity X prize.
Speaker 2: We're we're getting there, but we're getting there, and I
think I think in our last conversation, Uh, you're getting
on board with the idea of extended longevity.
Speaker 1: Yes, uh, yeah.
Speaker 3: Okay that some degree.
Speaker 4: I mean, like I don't know if we want to
ever want to live or whatever, but I think, uh,
health spend and not you know, having an extended period
of senescence where you're just grueling on yourself sounds.
Speaker 1: Like a good idea. We won't to avoid that.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So, first off, congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and
x AI ball or move us going to power humanity's
first dicense WARM. So I'm curious, truly truly is uh,
what's your timeline for launching these data centers and how
much bandwidth do you think you can get in the
first year. Give us a sense of the speed at
which you're going to be making this happen.
Speaker 4: Uh. Yeah, so SpaceX is has space space x is
in the quiet period. I can't actually tell you things
that would cause the problems.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, oh, I'll leave it.
Speaker 3: I'll leave it that.
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, but I can't wait for uh for
the speed. You know, we had a conversation here on
Monday with with Eric Schmidt uh and with one of
the leads from one of the other hyper scalers I
mentioned who. But I'm curious where you feel we are
in recursive self improvement?
Speaker 3: Are we there?
Speaker 2: Do you see rock doing recursive self improvement at this point?
And how what's the timeline for a G I and
a S I give us a sense of that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a
while here. You say it's because if you mean by
like recursive self improvement without a human.
Speaker 1: In the loop, is that what you mean?
Speaker 2: I do on the on the AI software side.
Speaker 4: I mean humans are gradually getting less and less in
the loop on the recursive self improvement. So you know,
every successive model is built by the one before it,
so that that that that is happening to a large degree,
but it's it's not yet fully automated.
Speaker 1: It may be there end of this year, but not
later than the next year.
Speaker 3: Do you see a heart take off at that point?
Speaker 1: We're in the heart takele.
Speaker 3: Okay right now?
Speaker 4: Yes, I mean look at I mean, at this point
I go to sleep, there's some passive AI breakthrough, and
when I wake up there's another one.
Speaker 3: Yes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard to keep track. Honestly, it's a bit
of a headspinner.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I think a lot of the head spinning is
happening from you too.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, Brook stating pretty well and in some metrics,
by some metrics is the best. For example, it's the
best at predicting things to which you know, it's arguably the.
Speaker 1: Best metrics for intelligence. The new Brook four point two
zero is.
Speaker 4: It's really really good. We're currently behind on coding. The
reason I was but like for this was that I
was just in a giant sort of all hands on coding,
just going through all of the things that need to
happen to essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding,
which I think I think we'll do. I feel, you know,
we should probably get there by the middle of this year,
and and then I think people don't quite understand just
how much intelligence there will be, or you know, just
how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree
that is impossible to fully understand. But you could stillly
imagine a situation where we let's say, let's say a
million times more energy is harnessed then all of Earth's
current electricity usage. That would slowly be roughly a millionth
of the Sun's energy output. So essentially, if you increase
us economy by a factor of a million, it's still
roughly a trillion, since we're a trillion of the Sun's energy.
If you increase that's economy and in terms of electricity
usage by roughly a million, you will be roughly one
million only of the Sun's energy harnessed.
Speaker 1: But but what is it?
Speaker 4: What is what is an economy or an intelligence using
a million times more electricity than all of the civilization
think about.
Speaker 1: Or look like or do. It's going to be something
pretty magnificent.
Speaker 4: The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating that level of intelligence.
But it's safe to say, well, it will solve everything
you can possibly think of. Yes, long trip, but you're
being you know, certainly one of them, and I do
enjoy your unrelenting optimism.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Bill.
Speaker 1: I see, I see if you're hope hope.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, you've taken a heart monetizing hope, which is
pretty funny.
Speaker 2: It was, it was, it was Grox. It was grox
marketing advice to me when you roasted beyond right.
Speaker 4: And saying you monetize but if you've been monetizing misery.
Speaker 5: But yes, for sure, Yeah, but yeah, just the we
you have AI and robots are gonna.
Speaker 4: Increase the like economic output or by by so many
olders magitude, we cannot possibly comprehend it.
Speaker 2: We're likely in the very short time to become a
minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of
intelligence on this planet.
Speaker 4: Yes, not even on this planet, but in the Solar system.
Yes for sure, because like you, you know, your best
case outcome for Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth
of the Sun's energy.
Speaker 1: That's your best case.
Speaker 4: Outcome if you if you, if you genertraate intelligence only.
Speaker 6: On Earth, intercept it right, Yes, yes, because roughly one
roughly half of bellion that the Sun's energy hits Earth,
and that's the vast majority of energy that that's out there,
but that would be access.
Speaker 4: So uh, really the intelligence and the Soul system will
be many autismatic tooth greater than the intelligence on Earth itself.
Speaker 2: How ask a question, Elan, how far out can you see?
How many years out can you make reasonable predictions?
Speaker 3: Right now?
Speaker 1: It's hard to verdict.
Speaker 4: The the path exactly is es actually if it because
often things are kind of an S curve or a
series of S curves where it's slow, grows exponentially, hits
Lenia zone and then goes loger with me, that generally
has been what I've seen with the breakthroughs in AI
AI for example, is you'll you'll there'll be some breakthrough,
it'll do h have an S cove, but and then
it looks like it's just going to go to infinity,
but then you hit love rhythmic returns until there's another breakthrough,
So progressing, it's just a sort of series of you know,
sort of overlapping s coves or connect with s coves.
Speaker 2: I mean, there was a point where you could probably
predict out a decade or two decades.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts now, Okay, this is gonna sound
pretty crazy.
Speaker 2: It's okay, we we've been we've been talking about.
Speaker 4: Your separate acceptive audience to wild prognostications. Yes, i'd say
the economy is ten times this, it's kind of size
in ten years greater than.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, you're really saying something.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you'd said triple digit growth in in five plus
years from now on on GDP in ten next the economy.
Speaker 3: But in terms of your ability.
Speaker 4: Like, I feel like that's that's that's a tan X
and roughly ten years.
Speaker 1: I feel as actually.
Speaker 4: A fairly comfortable prediction with there's no if there's like
world War three or something that that could put a
think and those plans of those expectations. Yeah, but in
the absence of World War three, if Connor trends continue,
I would say the the economy tenaxes and ten years.
Speaker 3: Love it.
Speaker 2: Could you give us We had a bunch of a
base on the moon, Yes, and we'll and we'll have
we'll have people on Mars. I have mass drivers on
the moon, Yes, I.
Speaker 1: Think so in ten years. I think I think we'll
have a mass driver in the moon in ten years.
Speaker 3: I love it.
Speaker 2: Gerard k O'Neil's vision being fulfilled. We had four robots
on stage here this year on at the Abundant Summit.
Speaker 3: I look forward to Optimists.
Speaker 2: I'm curious Optimists three timeline and in particular, when can
I buy one or two? When's when do you expect
Optimists to go into commercial for commercial sale or will
you be leasing it?
Speaker 4: Well, we're in the file stages of completion of Optimist three,
which is really going to be by far the most
advanced robot in the world.
Speaker 1: Nothing's even close.
Speaker 4: In fact, I haven't even sent any seen any demos
of robots that are as good as Optimist three. Frankly,
maybe they're out there or their secret or something. I
don't know, but you know, and I have to make
sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well.
Speaker 3: Of course, course we're streaming this on x Yeah.
Speaker 4: Okay, this is pretty public and acted. Yes, yeah, I
think we'll start production on Optimus three the summer, but
very slow at first. Yeah, like a you know, the
sort of classic s CO ramp of manufacturing units versus time,
and then probably reached high only production and around someone
next year, and then.
Speaker 1: You know, we'll have off to us for you know,
design clean next year.
Speaker 4: I try to release a new robot design every year
I'm interprove up design every year.
Speaker 2: When when Dave Bundon and I were at the gigafactory,
it was an extraordinary experience, eleven and a half million
square feet for the Tesla, and then I think you
said you're building out nine and a half million square
feet for Optimus there as well, which is which is extraordinary.
Speaker 1: Let's let's put my square feet around on is. Yeah,
I had to be. That'll be quite that.
Speaker 4: That's gonna be a a new factory designed too, like
it's not different from other factories.
Speaker 2: How far before we have robots building robots? I mean
you automated so much of the Giga factory ready where
they're humans playing a small role? Do the robots just
play the role that humans are playing in that regard,
we still have a.
Speaker 4: Lot of humans building things, you know, Tesla direct employees
or building things or like basically people in the factory
or either building or managing people are building.
Speaker 1: It's rough one hundred thousand, so we have a lot
of people. There's a total headcounts around one hundred and fifty.
Speaker 4: K, of of which two thirds are you know, in
the factory at one point or another.
Speaker 1: And then our suppliers is probably.
Speaker 4: Maybe a million or two million people in our suppliers
type of thing.
Speaker 1: So so it's a lot of people. What we do expect,
that is.
Speaker 4: Is that the output per per person at TESLA becomes
very very high. So we're not planning any like layoffs
or reductions at personnel. In fact, we will increase our headcount,
but the output per human that tells us going to
get nutty high.
Speaker 1: When we were like believing, Yeah.
Speaker 2: When we were together, we discussed the idea of sustainable
abundance on our podcast, and you reinforce the idea that
we have a coming age of universal high income, which
has become a point of discussion beyond UBI. But I'm
just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we
get there. Have you reflected that any further? And and
more so, you know, we talked about a time frame
of civil unrest, you know.
Speaker 3: Two three, four, five years.
Speaker 2: Uh, probably a lot of COVID like checks in the
interim until we get to a demonetization, uh and a
you know deflation that leads us to U HI any
more reflections on that?
Speaker 3: So really people need that hope in that vision.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to fixular I don't think we should
be sort of a basement.
Speaker 4: We need to we do need to be careful because
the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're
not all great. But I at this point, I I
do agree with you that it's it's likely to be great.
You know, it's probably eighty said likely, maybe more likely
to be great. And and I do think we'll have
universal han income. We're basically just issue money to people,
you know, and and the really just because the output
of goods and services will so far exceed the money
supply that you know, that that that effectively you have deflation,
because just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs
and goods and services to the money supply. So that
that's so if if the rate of growth of goods
and services par exceeds the rate of growth of the
money supply, which I predict will happen, then you will
have deflation.
Speaker 2: Yes, and a lot of a lot of people spinning
up new companies competing against each other, driving the price
down and increasing the variability and deflation faster and faster.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's basically AI and Robot's going to make SMAR
stuff and for any services that they will.
Speaker 1: Actually run out of things to do for the humans.
Speaker 4: They'll just run out of things that do the humans,
and then they well, you know, there's.
Speaker 1: Only so much that humans can even express that they want.
Speaker 4: So you go back to my example of like, if
you go a million times greater than the most economy,
you've long since saturated all human desire.
Speaker 1: You know, like maybe like if you go to a thousand.
Speaker 4: Times more than our card economy a thousand times, you
probably have already saturated saturated human anything people can think
of that they want.
Speaker 2: So do you think the value of money is going
to significantly decrease?
Speaker 3: Will it? Will we go post capitalist? Yeah?
Speaker 4: I think money will stop being relevant at some point
in the future.
Speaker 3: So just as you're becoming.
Speaker 4: It's probably something like an in Bank's culture sort of future,
And I think the AI down the road will really.
Speaker 1: Not use human currency.
Speaker 4: It will just care about power and mass, wattage and tonnage.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of ironic then, right, just as you're
becoming a multi trillionaire, money starts to have less value.
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty much. Uh, yeah, you know that's all the stuff.
Speaker 4: It's just really just trillion just represents like some percentage
ownership and companies that I you know, boilt and it's
not like sitting in Oh god, it's just literally I
don't know, a percentage of the companies.
Speaker 1: The companies are doing lots of useful things. The value
the company grows percentage of.
Speaker 4: The companies, and that's the sums up to that number,
which seems high.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's I was interviewed by somebody who
was asking me about your your drive, what drives you?
And I said, Elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven
to make life in the world better by just solving
the biggest problems over and over and over again. And
if someone else was solving them, he wouldn't need to.
But no one else is solving them. So I just
want to say, you know, thank you for that, Tom,
thank you for that.
Speaker 1: You're welcome.
Speaker 3: I am curious.
Speaker 2: Do you think that democracy and our modern institutions can
keep up with this supersonic tsunami coming our way? Are
they just gonna fall in its way? They're just going
to break down? How do we deal?
Speaker 1: M I mean, it's cool the singularity for a reason.
Speaker 4: You know that it's hard to predict what happens, and
that in the singularity.
Speaker 1: I mean, CrOx logo is the singularity.
Speaker 3: I love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you, by
the way, it's gorgeous.
Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you. Yeah, it's so the light. The light
that the the halo around a black hole is the
mass and ladder falling in type of thing.
Speaker 1: It's hard.
Speaker 4: It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity, but
it's going to be very interesting, like we're going to
live in the future will be very entertaining.
Speaker 1: Of that, I am confident.
Speaker 4: And I think also like AI and robotics also the
only way we're going to solve our budget deficit frankly,
and not just go bankrupt as a country. So I'm
I'm you know, you've had an influence on me and
that I'm like, I've just decided to be more optimistic.
Speaker 1: It's like we just should be more optimistic.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Pal. You know that I.
Speaker 4: Wasn't an optimist, but I was like, maybe running a
little too much around the negative stuff.
Speaker 2: It's all it's all upside being an optimist and a
realist a little bit.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. You don't want to be complacent
or just assume everything's.
Speaker 1: Going to go well.
Speaker 4: But try to make it go well.
Speaker 1: But I mean, there will be some pretty amazing things
that happen.
Speaker 4: So if you've got humanoid robots that are that have
very high dexterity and uh and and and are incredibly smart,
it means that everyone on Earth will have access to
better medical care than than than the richest person on Earth, which,
by the way, I would say, like, you know, if
I'm allegedly the rich person, would I think, actually, sovereigns
are richer than me, by the way, But it's like,
you know, I like I had to have like a
like an ex surgery three times because the first two
ones were done wrong.
Speaker 1: You know, like this is I'm like what that you know?
Speaker 4: So and I'm like my back still hurts a little bit.
I'm like, can AI police sew back fan?
Speaker 1: That would be a huge win.
Speaker 3: And I think it well, yep, so you.
Speaker 1: Know that fan sucks.
Speaker 4: I think that's maybe like you know, sometimes why if
people get grumpy when they get old, this because back faint.
Speaker 1: It's like you back bets all the time and you
can't sleep while you're gonna be bruffy.
Speaker 3: We had.
Speaker 2: We had David Sinclair on stage this morning and he's
going into human trials with ER one hundred is partial
pagetic reprogramming and uh one of the one of the
papers recently published shows it enables joint repair and so
back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates.
Speaker 1: So that would be amazing.
Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, for surely average happened to several pre humans.
Speaker 1: Would just go up from tremendously if you.
Speaker 4: Just saw back fane, because it's not a question of
of if you'll get back pain as when you know
you'll get back pain.
Speaker 1: I keep on a good design.
Speaker 2: I keep on inviting you to come down to Fountain
Life in uh in Dallas, will U will help you out.
But sometime when you have.
Speaker 4: To you have like what do you I understand like
that you can get like mrin catscans and everything, but
like what do you do with that?
Speaker 3: You know, it's like happy to happy to send you
the list. I'll d M you the list. Yeah exactly.
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, listen, you've been so generous. Next up
on stage with me is one of another great Moonshot entrepreneur,
Ben Lamb, who runs Colossal, the the extinction Company. Uh,
you know, the Wily Mammoth and fifteen other species. I
heard I heard you say you might want to many
Willly mammoth.
Speaker 3: Is that is that true?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I think it would be really cool to have a
pet minister Willie Mammoth.
Speaker 1: That would be pretty epic.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll put a word in with you for you
with with with.
Speaker 4: That would be adorable little things that's running around, trumpeting
away and it's like, look at the it's a grateful bed.
Speaker 3: Amazing.
Speaker 4: I can somebody please do Jurassic Park in realize? Well,
I definitely got even if there was some risk of death.
Speaker 1: Be super cool.
Speaker 2: I think if anybody is going to do that, it's
it's Ben Lamb and Colossal. He's really he's engineering living
life products. Someone asked him recently if he can make
a Pikachu and he said probably.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well Jurassic Jurassic World whatever, that would be.
Speaker 3: Great, all right, I'll ask him. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Elon, so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing.
Thank you, Thank you, my friend.
Speaker 3: Let's give it up for Elon Musk.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.