WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos

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<v Speaker 1>with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a

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<v Speaker 1>gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for

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<v Speaker 1>unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful

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<v Speaker 1>slumber under the night sky.

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<v Speaker 2>Imagine for just a second that you are standing outside

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<v Speaker 2>on like a perfectly clear, crisp night You're just looking

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<v Speaker 2>up at the vast, sprawling expanse of the night sky right.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, getting that full cosmic.

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<v Speaker 2>Perspective exactly, And the stars they appear completely fixed. The

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<v Speaker 2>planets are slowly silently tracing these ancient, mathematically predictable paths.

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<v Speaker 3>It's basically orbital mechanics doing its thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and everything just feels ordered. Like the universe from

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<v Speaker 2>our terrestrial vantage point, anyway, it looks like a flawless,

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<v Speaker 2>frictionless clock.

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<v Speaker 3>A very large, very cold clock.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, I want you to imagine locking your eyes

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<v Speaker 2>onto a specific celestial object that's just hurtling through the darkness.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, I'm picturing it.

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<v Speaker 2>It has mass, it has momentum, it has been traveling

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<v Speaker 2>on this massive elliptical track for centuries, literally doing exactly

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<v Speaker 2>what the laws of thermodynamics and gravity demand that it do.

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<v Speaker 3>Because that's how physics works. You can't argue with inertia,

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<v Speaker 3>you can't.

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<v Speaker 2>But then, right as you're watching it, the impossible happens.

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<v Speaker 2>This ancient object completely slams on the brakes.

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<v Speaker 3>Which is wild.

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<v Speaker 2>The rotation just grinds to a dead stop, and then,

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<v Speaker 2>completely defying everything we intuitively understand about momentum inertia and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the absolute vacuum of space, it starts violently

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<v Speaker 2>spinning in the exact opposite direction.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it fundamentally breaks the brain's intuitive physics engine totally,

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<v Speaker 3>because when an object with that much mass and that

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<v Speaker 3>much established inertia suddenly reverses course in a frictionless environment,

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<v Speaker 3>it feels like glitch. In reality, it.

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<v Speaker 2>Really does, like someone just hit reverse under remote control.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly. It goes against our fundamental understanding of how large

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<v Speaker 3>celestial bodies are supposed to behave. I mean, you expect

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<v Speaker 3>a planet or a moon to gradually slow down over say,

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<v Speaker 3>billions of years due to tidal.

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<v Speaker 2>Forces, billions of years, not not over a week end.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly, a sudden, violent mechanical reversal on a human timescale

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<v Speaker 3>that requires a localized application of force so massive and

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<v Speaker 3>so chaotic that it almost seems engineered, which is.

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<v Speaker 2>Why this is arguably one of the most fascinating astronomical

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<v Speaker 2>anomalies on record. We aren't just talking about like a

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<v Speaker 2>theoretical model or a broken piece of video game physics here.

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<v Speaker 3>No, this is heavily documented.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very real event surrounding a specific object known

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<v Speaker 2>to astronomers as comment forty one pe total Giacobini krisoc

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<v Speaker 2>quite the mouthful. Yeah, we are definitely gonna call it

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<v Speaker 2>forty one p to save oxygen.

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<v Speaker 3>Good call.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's unpack this because our mission today is to

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<v Speaker 2>entirely break down on this unprecedented event. We're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>the first ever observed instance of a comet throwing itself

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<v Speaker 2>into a reverse spin.

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<v Speaker 3>And what makes this story truly brilliant isn't just the

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<v Speaker 3>violent physics of the reversal itself.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh right, it's how we found out about it exactly

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<v Speaker 2>because we didn't catch this happening live.

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<v Speaker 3>The evidence of this impossible cosmic spin out was just

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<v Speaker 3>sitting quietly in a digital database.

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<v Speaker 2>Like a ghost in the machine.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, completely unnoticed until someone decided to sift through the

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<v Speaker 3>archives and actually do the math. The archival nature of

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<v Speaker 3>the discovery is perhaps the most compelling part of the narrative.

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<v Speaker 2>Here because it completely recontextualizes how we view modern astronomy.

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<v Speaker 2>We aren't just looking up.

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<v Speaker 3>Anymore, right, we're looking back through the hard drives.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're going to explore the chaotic physics of the

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<v Speaker 2>inner Solar System, the rapid, almost violent life and death

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<v Speaker 2>cycles of short period comets, and basically the hidden treasures

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<v Speaker 2>buried inside decades of data.

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<v Speaker 3>Because to really grasp the magnitude of what happened to

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<v Speaker 3>for p, you have to understand the specific structural vulnerabilities

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<v Speaker 3>of the comet itself.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's not just a generic space rock.

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<v Speaker 3>No, it is a remarkably fragile piece of primordial architecture.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's start with that architecture. Yeah, Because if a

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<v Speaker 2>solid object stops spinning in a vacuum, the kinetic energy

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't just magically disappear, right right.

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<v Speaker 3>Physics demands an equal and opposite reaction exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>So before we can identify where that massive counterforce came from,

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<v Speaker 2>we need to understand exactly what kind of object is

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<v Speaker 2>receiving the blow. Let's meet our protagonist.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's do it.

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<v Speaker 2>Where does a rock like forty one pe actually come from?

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<v Speaker 2>Like initially, Well.

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<v Speaker 3>To find the true origin of forty one P you

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<v Speaker 3>have to look outward, like far past the orbits of

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<v Speaker 3>Neptune and Urinus. Way out there, Yeah, to the absolute

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<v Speaker 3>freezing dark edges of our solar neighborhood. We're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>the Kuiper Belt.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, the Kuiper Belt.

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<v Speaker 3>It's this massive, incredibly sparse ring of primordial frozen debris.

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<v Speaker 3>The objects out there are basically the leftover building blocks

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<v Speaker 3>from the very formation of the Solar system, so.

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<v Speaker 2>Roughly four point six billion years ago exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>They are essentially preserved in a deep frieze, totally untouched

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<v Speaker 3>by solar radiation, just drifting in a state of near

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<v Speaker 3>perfect cryogenic suspension.

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<v Speaker 2>So it basically spends billions of years just floating in

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<v Speaker 2>the dark, like a dormant time capsule of ice and.

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<v Speaker 3>Rock yep, just waiting.

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<v Speaker 2>So, how does something locked in the deep frieze of

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<v Speaker 2>the outer Solar System end up zooming past Earth? Like?

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<v Speaker 2>How does it get hot enough to fundamentally alter its

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<v Speaker 2>own mechanics.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it encounters the ultimate gravitational bully of our Solar system, Jupiter.

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<v Speaker 3>It is so staggeringly massive that its immense gravity will

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<v Speaker 3>dictates the architecture of basically everything around it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's kind of cosmic vacuum cleaner, right, a vacum.

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<v Speaker 3>Cleaner and a gravitational slingshot. Because at some point in

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<v Speaker 3>forty one p's ancient history, it's slow, lazy orbit drifted

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<v Speaker 3>just a fraction too close to Jupiter's sphere of influence,

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<v Speaker 3>and the giant planet's gravity caught it, warped its trajectory

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<v Speaker 3>and fundamentally flung it inward toward the Sun.

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<v Speaker 2>It's basically orbital resonance, acting as an eviction notice permanent.

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<v Speaker 3>One Yeah. That interaction completely rewrote the comet's destiny. It

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<v Speaker 3>left forty one P locked into a brand new, highly

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<v Speaker 3>elliptical path.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>It became what astronomers classify as a Jupiter family comet.

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<v Speaker 3>So its orbit now brings it swinging through the inner

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<v Speaker 3>Solar System relatively close to the Sun and Earth every

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<v Speaker 3>five point four years.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, five point four years.

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<v Speaker 3>And based on dynamic orbital modeling, researchers believe it has

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<v Speaker 3>actually been trapped in this exact five point four year

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<v Speaker 3>loop for approximately fifteen hundred years.

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<v Speaker 2>That is wild a millennium and a half of doing

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<v Speaker 2>the exact same lap round and round five point four

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<v Speaker 2>years out toward the cold Jupiter, then whipping back around

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<v Speaker 2>into the searing heat of the Sun. But when I

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<v Speaker 2>picture a comet surviving that kind of extreme thermal cycling

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<v Speaker 2>for fifteen hundred years, I picture something the size of

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<v Speaker 2>a city.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's the standard mental imag.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Like I picture a massive apocalyptic mountain of ice,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, like Hailbop or Haley's Comet.

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<v Speaker 3>And that assumption is exactly why forty one P is

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<v Speaker 3>such a profound mechanical anomaly. Okay, because the nucleus of

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<v Speaker 3>commet forty one P, and I mean the actual solid

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<v Speaker 3>core of rock, dust and ice beneath the glowing coma

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<v Speaker 3>you see in photographs, it is almost unimaginably small.

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<v Speaker 2>How small are we talking?

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<v Speaker 3>It measures only about one kilometer.

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<v Speaker 2>Across one kilometer. Okay. Just to give you a concrete

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<v Speaker 2>visual anchor for that scale, picture the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>Now imagine stacking three Eiffel towers and to end, that

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<v Speaker 2>total height is roughly the diameter of this entire comet.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a tiny on a human scale.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, looking up at three stacked Eiffel Towers floating in

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<v Speaker 2>the sky would be.

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<v Speaker 3>Massive, terrifying really, right, But.

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<v Speaker 2>In the arena of orbital mechanics, in a space populated

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<v Speaker 2>by moons and gas giants, that is essentially a microscopic

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<v Speaker 2>speck of.

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<v Speaker 3>Dust, it is remarkably diminutive, and that lack of physical

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<v Speaker 3>volume translates directly to a severe lacks makes sense because

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<v Speaker 3>four one P is so small its own self gravity

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<v Speaker 3>is incredibly went. In fact, the escape velocity on a

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<v Speaker 3>one kilometer commet is so low that if you were

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<v Speaker 3>standing on its surface, you could simply jump and your

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<v Speaker 3>leg muscles would provide enough kinetic energy to break the

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<v Speaker 3>comet's gravitational hold entirely.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait, really, you just jump into orbit.

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<v Speaker 3>You would just float away into space. You've never come

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<v Speaker 3>back down.

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<v Speaker 2>That is insane, which means the comet itself barely has

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<v Speaker 2>the internal cohesive strength to hold its own material together,

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<v Speaker 2>let alone resist external forces.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly, it is highly susceptible to torque.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>Torque, Yeah, torque is simply the measure of force that

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<v Speaker 3>can cause an object to rotate about an access. When

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<v Speaker 3>you have an object with substantial mass, say a fifty

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<v Speaker 3>kilometer wide comet, it possesses a massive moment of inertia.

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<v Speaker 3>It's heavy, right, It takes a staggering amount of energy

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<v Speaker 3>to alter its rotation. It can essentially shrug off environmental forces.

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<v Speaker 3>Forty one p does not have that luxury. It is

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<v Speaker 3>a lightweight.

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<v Speaker 2>Think of it like a quad copter drone.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh that's a good comparison.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Like, if you have a massive military grade helicopter,

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<v Speaker 2>a sudden gust of wind or a minor mechanical hiccup

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<v Speaker 2>isn't going to flip it upside down. Its sheer mass

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<v Speaker 2>anchors its momentum. But if you have a cheap, lightlyight,

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<v Speaker 2>palm sized plastic drone and one of the four rotors

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<v Speaker 2>suddenly fires at three hundred percent capacity while the others

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<v Speaker 2>remain normal, the drone doesn't just drift.

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<v Speaker 3>Sideways, No, it completely wipes out.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly the massive asymmetry and thrust against its low mass

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<v Speaker 2>throws the entire machine into an uncontrollable, violent flat spin.

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<v Speaker 2>In the grand chaotic mechanics of our solar system, comet

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<v Speaker 2>forty one P is that tiny unbalanced drone.

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<v Speaker 3>The drone analogy captures the mechanical vulnerability perfectly. It is

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<v Speaker 3>structurally at the mercy of the thermodynamic environment.

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<v Speaker 2>Around it, and that extreme vulnerability is really what sets

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<v Speaker 2>the stage for the deeply bizarre sequence of events that

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<v Speaker 2>astronomer David Jewett eventually uncovered.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, the entire time timeline a forty one p's twenty

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<v Speaker 3>seventeen approach to the Sun basically reads like a forensic

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<v Speaker 3>reconstruction of a mechanical failure.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's trace that twenty seventeen timeline because it really

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<v Speaker 2>is a detective story.

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<v Speaker 3>It really is.

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<v Speaker 2>We are following the breadcrumbs left in the digital archives,

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<v Speaker 2>and it starts in March at twenty seventeen, when forty

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<v Speaker 2>one P was making its standard five point four year

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<v Speaker 2>swing toward the Sun.

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<v Speaker 3>Right in March, the astronomical community had their eyes on it.

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<v Speaker 3>Astronomers utilize the Discovery Channel telescope, which is a very

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<v Speaker 3>powerful ground based optical observatory located at the Lowell Observatory

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<v Speaker 3>in Arizona.

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<v Speaker 2>Very famous telescope.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, so they took standard photometric observations basically measuring

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<v Speaker 3>the light curve of the comet as it tumbled through space.

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<v Speaker 2>So a solid baseline measurement exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>The March data established the comet's starting parameters. They calculated

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<v Speaker 3>how fast it was spinning as it came in toward perihelion,

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<v Speaker 3>which is its closest approach to the Sun, and what

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<v Speaker 3>was it doing at that moment. It was behaving like

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<v Speaker 3>a perfectly standard, albeit very small, Jupiter family comet. Its

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<v Speaker 3>rotation was normal, its momentum was steady.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, But the narrative fractures just two months later. Right

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<v Speaker 2>fast forward to May of twenty seventeen. If I'm David

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<v Speaker 2>Jewett looking at this archival data, what am I seeing

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<v Speaker 2>in the May files?

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<v Speaker 3>You are seeing an inexplicable deceleration. In May researchers pulled

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<v Speaker 3>data gathered from space, specifically from NASA's Neil Garrel's Swift Observatory. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>SWIFT is primarily designed to hunt for gamma ray bursts

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<v Speaker 3>deep in the cosmos.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh really, not comets, right.

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<v Speaker 3>But its ultraviolet and optical telescopes are occasionally pointed at

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<v Speaker 3>local targets like commets, and the ultraviolet data from Swift

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<v Speaker 3>reveals something entirely baffling.

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<v Speaker 2>What did it true?

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<v Speaker 3>In just an eight week span, the comet had experienced

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<v Speaker 3>a massive, dramatic slowdown in its repational period.

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<v Speaker 2>A slowdown in a vacuum implies a massive counter force.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, there's a no air resistance to bleed off

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<v Speaker 2>that momentum right now.

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<v Speaker 3>None.

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<v Speaker 2>So what kind of deceleration are the swift numbers actually showing?

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<v Speaker 3>The object was suddenly spending three times more slowly than

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<v Speaker 3>its baseline measurement in March.

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<v Speaker 2>Three times.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, The rotation period had stretched out to a sluggish,

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<v Speaker 3>agonizing crawl, taking anywhere from forty six to sixty hours

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<v Speaker 3>to complete a single rotation. It was literally grinding to

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<v Speaker 3>a halt.

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<v Speaker 2>A comet that has been doing the same lap carrying

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<v Speaker 2>the exact same momentum for fifteen hundred years suddenly loses

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<v Speaker 2>two thirds of its rotational velocity in sixty days.

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<v Speaker 3>It's unheard of.

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<v Speaker 2>That alone is a terrifying display of localized force. It's

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<v Speaker 2>a massive physics anomaly. But that isn't the climax of

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<v Speaker 2>the archive, isit.

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<v Speaker 3>No, the actual shot comes at the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's get into that.

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<v Speaker 3>We're moved to December twenty seventeen. This is the crucial

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<v Speaker 3>file that Jewett eventually cracked open. The observations this time

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<v Speaker 3>came from the Hubble Space telescope.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh the big guns, the biggest.

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<v Speaker 3>Hubble's optics are pristine. It operates entirely above the distortion

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<v Speaker 3>of Earth's atmosphere, providing incredibly high resolution imaging. Right when

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<v Speaker 3>the December light curves from Hubble were finally analyzed, they

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<v Speaker 3>showed that the sluggish sixty hour crawl was totally gone.

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<v Speaker 2>So the rotation sped back up.

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<v Speaker 3>It accelerated wildly. It went from that sixty hour crawl

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<v Speaker 3>back down to completing a full rotation in just fourteen hours.

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<v Speaker 3>Ral it was whipping around. What's fascinating here is the

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<v Speaker 3>direction of the rotation had flipped. It was spinning in

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<v Speaker 3>the completely opposite direction from its March baseline.

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<v Speaker 2>A violent, massive mechanical reversal over a span of just

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<v Speaker 2>nine months. Think about the energy required to execute that maneuver.

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<v Speaker 2>It had to continue slowing down after the May observation,

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<v Speaker 2>eventually coming to an absolute dead mechanical stop in the

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<v Speaker 2>vacuus space before being forcefully continuously pushed to accelerate backward.

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<v Speaker 3>It really forces a complete reevaluation of the thermodynamic forces

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<v Speaker 3>at play on the surface of these small bodies. I

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<v Speaker 3>bet because to fundamentally alter the angular momentum of a

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<v Speaker 3>one kilometer wide solid object, you need a continuous, targeted

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<v Speaker 3>and immense application of force. You literally need engine.

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<v Speaker 2>Which brings us to the mechanics of the vacuum itself.

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<v Speaker 2>We have the forensic timeline right, normal spin, sudden deceleration,

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00:14:06.559 --> 00:14:08.919
<v Speaker 2>dead stop, violent reverse acceleration.

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<v Speaker 3>The whole sequence.

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00:14:09.840 --> 00:14:12.559
<v Speaker 2>We know the mass is low, but where is the engine?

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<v Speaker 2>Like what massive force in the solar SYSM could possibly

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<v Speaker 2>act as a localized thruster system capable of throwing three

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<v Speaker 2>Eiffel Towers into reverse.

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<v Speaker 3>The engine is fueled by a very specific phase transition

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<v Speaker 3>called sublimation.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, sublimation, let's break that down.

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<v Speaker 3>When we interact with ice on Earth, we are dealing

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<v Speaker 3>with atmospheric pressure. If you take an ice cube out

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00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:35.759
<v Speaker 3>of your freezer, the ambient heat causes the solid H

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00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:38.840
<v Speaker 3>two O to melt into liquid water. Right, it melts,

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00:14:38.879 --> 00:14:41.799
<v Speaker 3>and if you apply enough heat, that liquid water eventually

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00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:45.399
<v Speaker 3>boils and evaporates into a gas That is the standard

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00:14:45.399 --> 00:14:48.399
<v Speaker 3>thermodynamic progression solid liquid gas.

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00:14:48.639 --> 00:14:51.840
<v Speaker 2>But a comet operates in the deep vacuum of space.

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00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:54.759
<v Speaker 2>The atmospheric pressure is essentially zero.

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00:14:54.720 --> 00:14:58.360
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, and without atmospheric pressure, the liquid state of water

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00:14:58.440 --> 00:15:02.639
<v Speaker 3>simply cannot exist. Yeah, the physics won't allow it. So

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<v Speaker 3>as Comet forty one P approaches the Sun, it is

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<v Speaker 3>subjected to incredibly intense unshielded solar radiation.

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<v Speaker 2>It's getting baked, baked.

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<v Speaker 3>The surface of the comet heats up rapidly the frozen

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00:15:13.679 --> 00:15:17.279
<v Speaker 3>volatile things like water, ice, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide. They

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00:15:17.320 --> 00:15:20.519
<v Speaker 3>react to this extreme thermal shock by instantly flashing from

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00:15:20.519 --> 00:15:23.600
<v Speaker 3>a solid state directly into a gaseous state. Wow, they

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00:15:23.600 --> 00:15:25.360
<v Speaker 3>bypass the liquid phase entirely.

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00:15:25.480 --> 00:15:28.159
<v Speaker 2>So it's flash boiling from a frozen rock straight into

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00:15:28.159 --> 00:15:29.399
<v Speaker 2>a violent cloud of vapor.

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00:15:29.720 --> 00:15:34.000
<v Speaker 3>Yes, and that vapor doesn't just passively float away like

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00:15:34.039 --> 00:15:38.480
<v Speaker 3>a morning mist, because it expands incredibly rapidly upon transitioning

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<v Speaker 3>to a gas. It violently, forcefully ejects outward into the

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00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:47.080
<v Speaker 3>vacuum like get explosion. Very much so. This violent expulsion

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00:15:47.120 --> 00:15:50.840
<v Speaker 3>creates localized outgassing jets right on the surface of the

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<v Speaker 3>comet's nucleus.

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<v Speaker 2>This is where David Jewett's analysis of the Hubble data

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00:15:55.000 --> 00:15:58.720
<v Speaker 2>becomes so brilliant because he looked at these outgassing jets

329
00:15:59.200 --> 00:16:03.240
<v Speaker 2>and just applied absolute foundational Newtonian physics to them.

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00:16:03.360 --> 00:16:05.080
<v Speaker 3>Newton's third law right.

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<v Speaker 2>For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

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<v Speaker 2>As the sublimating gas violently fires outward into space, the

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00:16:11.480 --> 00:16:14.519
<v Speaker 2>physical force of that ejection pushes back against the solid

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00:16:14.519 --> 00:16:15.480
<v Speaker 2>surface of the comet.

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00:16:15.600 --> 00:16:18.200
<v Speaker 3>It is the exact same mechanical principle that propels a

336
00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:20.039
<v Speaker 3>SpaceX rocket off a launch pad.

337
00:16:20.159 --> 00:16:21.360
<v Speaker 2>That's a great way to picture it.

338
00:16:21.440 --> 00:16:25.399
<v Speaker 3>The rocket forces combustion gases downward, and the equal opposite

339
00:16:25.399 --> 00:16:28.600
<v Speaker 3>reaction pushes the massive physical structure of the rocket upward.

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00:16:28.840 --> 00:16:32.440
<v Speaker 3>On forty one p the sublimating ice is acting identically

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00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:36.720
<v Speaker 3>to chemical propellant. The comet has essentially grown a series

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00:16:36.759 --> 00:16:41.679
<v Speaker 3>of organic, entirely uncontrollable rocket thrusters all over its surface.

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00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:44.799
<v Speaker 2>The wait, if you have thrusters covering the entire surface

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00:16:44.840 --> 00:16:48.000
<v Speaker 2>of a sphere pushing equally in all directions, the forces

345
00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:49.000
<v Speaker 2>would just cancel each.

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00:16:48.840 --> 00:16:51.039
<v Speaker 3>Other out, you would think, so, yes, the comet.

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00:16:50.720 --> 00:16:54.080
<v Speaker 2>Would just sit inside a glowing ball of its own gas. Yeah,

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00:16:54.080 --> 00:16:56.360
<v Speaker 2>I mean it might get pushed slightly outward away from

349
00:16:56.360 --> 00:16:59.360
<v Speaker 2>the sun by solar wind, but its spin would violently

350
00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:00.519
<v Speaker 2>throw itself into reverse.

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00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:00.919
<v Speaker 1>Right.

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00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:05.559
<v Speaker 3>But you are assuming a comet is a perfect smooth sphere,

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00:17:05.599 --> 00:17:08.160
<v Speaker 3>and they almost never are because forty one P is

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00:17:08.200 --> 00:17:12.839
<v Speaker 3>so small it lacks the necessary mass to achieve hydrostatic equilibrium,

355
00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:16.079
<v Speaker 3>which is what that's the gravitational force that pulls planets

356
00:17:16.079 --> 00:17:19.279
<v Speaker 3>and large moons into perfect round shapes. Forty one P

357
00:17:19.480 --> 00:17:23.720
<v Speaker 3>is lumpy, irregular, scarred, and completely asymmetrical. It looks more

358
00:17:23.759 --> 00:17:25.480
<v Speaker 3>like a battered potato than a billiard ball.

359
00:17:25.640 --> 00:17:29.359
<v Speaker 2>Ah okay, And because the shape is asymmetrical, the distribution

360
00:17:29.440 --> 00:17:30.559
<v Speaker 2>of the ice is asymmetrical.

361
00:17:30.720 --> 00:17:35.079
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, the active areas, the exposed patches of volatilized that

362
00:17:35.119 --> 00:17:40.240
<v Speaker 3>create the strongest jets, were unevenly distributed across its irregular.

363
00:17:39.720 --> 00:17:42.559
<v Speaker 2>Surface, so it's not a uniform push, not at all.

364
00:17:43.000 --> 00:17:46.400
<v Speaker 3>So when the sun hit those patches, the thrusters didn't

365
00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:50.440
<v Speaker 3>fire symmetrically. They fired off center, they fired at odd angles,

366
00:17:50.920 --> 00:17:53.799
<v Speaker 3>and the dominant force of those asymmetrical jets happened to

367
00:17:53.839 --> 00:17:56.839
<v Speaker 3>push directly against the comet's original rotational motion.

368
00:17:57.200 --> 00:18:00.039
<v Speaker 2>Here's where it gets really interesting because Jewett used a

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00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:03.559
<v Speaker 2>brilliant analogy in his analysis to make sense of this torque.

370
00:18:03.599 --> 00:18:07.119
<v Speaker 2>He compared the comet to a playground merry go round.

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00:18:07.279 --> 00:18:09.000
<v Speaker 3>Such a helpful visual it really is.

372
00:18:09.319 --> 00:18:12.759
<v Speaker 2>Imagine a heavy metal merry go round spinning steadily to

373
00:18:12.799 --> 00:18:14.720
<v Speaker 2>the left. If you run up to it and start

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00:18:14.759 --> 00:18:18.079
<v Speaker 2>aggressively pushing against the metal bars, forcing them to the right,

375
00:18:18.519 --> 00:18:21.000
<v Speaker 2>the merry go round doesn't just instantly snap into reverse.

376
00:18:21.160 --> 00:18:22.480
<v Speaker 3>No, as momentum right.

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00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:25.400
<v Speaker 2>The first thing that happens is it begins to aggressively decelerate.

378
00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:29.640
<v Speaker 2>Your pushing is fighting against the established angular momentum.

379
00:18:29.160 --> 00:18:32.680
<v Speaker 3>And that deceleration is exactly what the Swift observatory captured

380
00:18:32.680 --> 00:18:36.599
<v Speaker 3>in May of twenty seventeen AH the slowdown. Yes, the

381
00:18:36.640 --> 00:18:41.000
<v Speaker 3>Sun's intense heat had activated the comet's asymmetrical thrusters, and

382
00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:45.319
<v Speaker 3>the physical force of those gas ejections started pushing continuously

383
00:18:45.440 --> 00:18:49.039
<v Speaker 3>against the comet's natural forward spin. The spin was bleeding

384
00:18:49.039 --> 00:18:52.640
<v Speaker 3>off energy, slowing to that sluggish sixty hour crawl.

385
00:18:52.799 --> 00:18:56.599
<v Speaker 2>But the Sun doesn't just turn off. The thermal shot continues.

386
00:18:56.680 --> 00:19:00.720
<v Speaker 2>As the comet gets closer to perihelion, the sublimation doesn't stop.

387
00:19:00.839 --> 00:19:02.880
<v Speaker 3>It actually accelerates.

388
00:19:02.440 --> 00:19:06.519
<v Speaker 2>Right, so back to the playground. You don't stop pushing

389
00:19:06.519 --> 00:19:09.319
<v Speaker 2>the merry go round to the right. You keep applying force.

390
00:19:09.759 --> 00:19:13.039
<v Speaker 2>Eventually the forward momentum is entirely depleted. The merry go

391
00:19:13.119 --> 00:19:14.440
<v Speaker 2>round grounds to a dead stop.

392
00:19:14.519 --> 00:19:15.640
<v Speaker 3>It is your own momentum.

393
00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:18.160
<v Speaker 2>And then, because you are still leaning your entire weight

394
00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:20.839
<v Speaker 2>into it pushing right, it begins to accelerate into a

395
00:19:20.920 --> 00:19:22.559
<v Speaker 2>right word spin exactly.

396
00:19:22.680 --> 00:19:27.640
<v Speaker 3>The continuous, wildly uneven outgassing eventually overpowered the entirety of

397
00:19:27.640 --> 00:19:29.599
<v Speaker 3>the comet's original angular momentum.

398
00:19:29.640 --> 00:19:31.160
<v Speaker 2>It's mind boggling, it really is.

399
00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.880
<v Speaker 3>It applied enough counter torque to stop a one kilometer

400
00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:36.079
<v Speaker 3>rock dead in its tracks, and then functioned as a

401
00:19:36.119 --> 00:19:38.880
<v Speaker 3>retrograde engine, spinning it up until it was whipping around

402
00:19:38.920 --> 00:19:42.200
<v Speaker 3>every fourteen hours by December. The physics are totally sound,

403
00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:46.400
<v Speaker 3>but witnessing the sheer scale of thermodynamic energy required to

404
00:19:46.440 --> 00:19:49.640
<v Speaker 3>execute that maneuver on a solid body is staggering.

405
00:19:49.880 --> 00:19:53.000
<v Speaker 2>It's an incredible display of mechanics. But as Jewett dug

406
00:19:53.039 --> 00:19:56.559
<v Speaker 2>deeper into the data, this violent spin reversal started to

407
00:19:56.599 --> 00:19:59.599
<v Speaker 2>look less like a quirky physics trick and more like

408
00:19:59.640 --> 00:20:02.599
<v Speaker 2>a meta symptoms Sadly, yes, it points to something much

409
00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:05.480
<v Speaker 2>darker regarding the structural integrity and the overall life span

410
00:20:05.559 --> 00:20:09.680
<v Speaker 2>of forty one P. The comet is essentially experiencing a

411
00:20:10.039 --> 00:20:11.720
<v Speaker 2>violent terminal crisis.

412
00:20:11.839 --> 00:20:13.920
<v Speaker 3>Yes, we have to zoom out from the twenty seventeen

413
00:20:13.960 --> 00:20:17.519
<v Speaker 3>event and look at the comet's historical health, because to

414
00:20:17.759 --> 00:20:20.240
<v Speaker 3>contextualize the violence of the spin reversal, you have to

415
00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:23.680
<v Speaker 3>look at the volume of gas the comet was actually producing, right,

416
00:20:23.759 --> 00:20:26.319
<v Speaker 3>and the archives provide a chilling point of comparison.

417
00:20:26.640 --> 00:20:29.079
<v Speaker 2>So let's pull up the data from its previous closed passes.

418
00:20:29.279 --> 00:20:32.119
<v Speaker 2>Forty one P loops the Sun every five point four years.

419
00:20:32.359 --> 00:20:33.720
<v Speaker 2>What did it look like in the past.

420
00:20:33.920 --> 00:20:37.160
<v Speaker 3>The most vital comparison point is its perihelium passage in

421
00:20:37.160 --> 00:20:39.279
<v Speaker 3>the year two thousand and one, sorry two thousand one.

422
00:20:39.359 --> 00:20:42.240
<v Speaker 3>During that approach sixteen years prior to the spin reversal,

423
00:20:42.279 --> 00:20:45.759
<v Speaker 3>astronomers recorded that forty one P was exceptionally active for

424
00:20:45.839 --> 00:20:48.799
<v Speaker 3>a comet of its diminutive size. Oh yeah, it was

425
00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:52.960
<v Speaker 3>venting brilliantly. The volatile ice was reacting violently to the Sun,

426
00:20:53.160 --> 00:20:56.480
<v Speaker 3>producing a massive, dense coma of gas and dust. It

427
00:20:56.519 --> 00:20:59.359
<v Speaker 3>was a robust, highly healthy textbook commet.

428
00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:02.279
<v Speaker 2>But when we ask forward back to the twenty seventeen passage,

429
00:21:02.599 --> 00:21:06.039
<v Speaker 2>the exact same orbital path, the exact same proximity to

430
00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:08.799
<v Speaker 2>the Sun, the health metrics just collapse.

431
00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:09.839
<v Speaker 3>You fall off a cliff.

432
00:21:09.880 --> 00:21:12.640
<v Speaker 2>The overall gas production of forty one P didn't just dip,

433
00:21:13.079 --> 00:21:16.119
<v Speaker 2>It plummeted by roughly in order of magnitude. It dropped

434
00:21:16.160 --> 00:21:18.759
<v Speaker 2>by a factor of ten. Yeah, it was producing only

435
00:21:18.799 --> 00:21:21.039
<v Speaker 2>ten percent of the gas that it produced just sixteen

436
00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:24.680
<v Speaker 2>years prior. Ninety percent of its activity simply vanished.

437
00:21:24.759 --> 00:21:29.400
<v Speaker 3>That kind of severe, almost instantaneous drop in outcasting is alarming.

438
00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:33.759
<v Speaker 3>Astronomers generally accept two primary hypotheses for why a short

439
00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:36.599
<v Speaker 3>period COMMET would undergo such a massive and rapid loss

440
00:21:36.640 --> 00:21:37.200
<v Speaker 3>of activities.

441
00:21:37.240 --> 00:21:39.759
<v Speaker 2>So let's unpack the first hypothesis. What's the main idea?

442
00:21:39.839 --> 00:21:43.240
<v Speaker 3>The first is simple volatile depletion. Okay, the comet is

443
00:21:43.279 --> 00:21:45.960
<v Speaker 3>fundamentally running out of fuel. You have to remember forty

444
00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:48.720
<v Speaker 3>one P has been running this exact inner solar system

445
00:21:48.799 --> 00:21:50.440
<v Speaker 3>loop for fifteen hundred years.

446
00:21:50.519 --> 00:21:51.799
<v Speaker 2>That's a lot of trips around the Sun.

447
00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:55.039
<v Speaker 3>It is every five point four years the Sun burns

448
00:21:55.039 --> 00:21:57.920
<v Speaker 3>off a layer of its near surface ice after a

449
00:21:57.920 --> 00:22:01.400
<v Speaker 3>millennium and a half, the tank is simply hit empty. Wow,

450
00:22:01.519 --> 00:22:04.599
<v Speaker 3>The accessible ice that is actually capable of sublimating has

451
00:22:04.640 --> 00:22:08.440
<v Speaker 3>been exhausted, leaving behind mostly inert rock and deep core

452
00:22:08.519 --> 00:22:11.200
<v Speaker 3>ice that the sun's heat just can't easily reach.

453
00:22:11.519 --> 00:22:15.160
<v Speaker 2>So it's drying out. It's transitioning from a vibrant comet

454
00:22:15.440 --> 00:22:17.920
<v Speaker 2>into just a dead, inert asteroid.

455
00:22:18.039 --> 00:22:18.519
<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

456
00:22:18.680 --> 00:22:21.079
<v Speaker 2>So if the tank isn't simply empty, what's the alternative?

457
00:22:21.160 --> 00:22:22.640
<v Speaker 2>Is the fuel somehow trapped?

458
00:22:22.839 --> 00:22:27.160
<v Speaker 3>You're hitting on the second hypothesis Mantling Mantling, Yes. Mantling

459
00:22:27.200 --> 00:22:30.160
<v Speaker 3>suggests that the volatile ice is still present beneath the surface,

460
00:22:30.319 --> 00:22:32.200
<v Speaker 3>but it is being aggressively smothered.

461
00:22:32.400 --> 00:22:33.559
<v Speaker 2>Smothered out well.

462
00:22:33.599 --> 00:22:37.759
<v Speaker 3>When a comet sublimates, the gas expanding into space carries dirt, dust,

463
00:22:37.799 --> 00:22:40.839
<v Speaker 3>and heavier silicate particles with it. But because forty one

464
00:22:40.880 --> 00:22:44.119
<v Speaker 3>Peter has such weak gravity, not all of that debris

465
00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:45.359
<v Speaker 3>reaches escape velocity.

466
00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:47.200
<v Speaker 2>Ah, so it doesn't all blow away, right.

467
00:22:47.440 --> 00:22:49.920
<v Speaker 3>A lot of the heavier dust eventually falls back down

468
00:22:49.920 --> 00:22:53.839
<v Speaker 3>onto the nucleus over hundreds of orbits. This fallback creates

469
00:22:53.880 --> 00:22:57.240
<v Speaker 3>a thick, highly insulating crust of dust and burt over

470
00:22:57.279 --> 00:22:58.359
<v Speaker 3>the active ice patches.

471
00:22:58.559 --> 00:23:00.400
<v Speaker 2>Wait, hold on, let me push back on the antling

472
00:23:00.440 --> 00:23:03.119
<v Speaker 2>theory for a second. Sure, if the comet is building

473
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:06.960
<v Speaker 2>up this thick insulating crust of dust, wouldn't that actually

474
00:23:07.039 --> 00:23:09.960
<v Speaker 2>act as a heat shield, Like if the crust prevents

475
00:23:10.039 --> 00:23:14.599
<v Speaker 2>the sun's thermal radiation from reaching the ice, the sublimation stops. True,

476
00:23:14.759 --> 00:23:19.079
<v Speaker 2>and if the sublimation stops, the rogue outgassing thrusters shut down.

477
00:23:19.680 --> 00:23:22.400
<v Speaker 2>So doesn't the dust crust actually save the comet from

478
00:23:22.480 --> 00:23:25.599
<v Speaker 2>continuing to spin out of control? It seems like mantling

479
00:23:25.599 --> 00:23:27.680
<v Speaker 2>would stabilize the rotation, not make it worse.

480
00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:31.400
<v Speaker 3>It's a brilliant deduction, and in a perfectly uniform system

481
00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:35.079
<v Speaker 3>that might be true. A perfectly even mantle would shut

482
00:23:35.119 --> 00:23:37.880
<v Speaker 3>down the commet entirely, turning it into a dormant rock.

483
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:41.359
<v Speaker 3>But again, forty one P is heavily asymmetrical and chaotic.

484
00:23:41.720 --> 00:23:44.559
<v Speaker 3>The mantle doesn't build up evenly. You get thick crusts

485
00:23:44.559 --> 00:23:47.480
<v Speaker 3>in some areas and exposed highly active vents in others.

486
00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:51.119
<v Speaker 3>Oh I see this extreme variance in surface insulation actually

487
00:23:51.160 --> 00:23:56.279
<v Speaker 3>exacerbates the asymmetrical thruster problem. You have concentrated hyper pressurized

488
00:23:56.359 --> 00:23:59.440
<v Speaker 3>jets firing from the few remaining weak points in the crust.

489
00:23:59.839 --> 00:24:03.160
<v Speaker 2>So instead of a dozen small thrusters pushing evenly, you

490
00:24:03.240 --> 00:24:07.319
<v Speaker 2>have one or two massive concentrated geysers fighting against the

491
00:24:07.480 --> 00:24:10.039
<v Speaker 2>entire mass of the comet. Exactly, it makes the torque

492
00:24:10.160 --> 00:24:11.000
<v Speaker 2>even more violent.

493
00:24:11.319 --> 00:24:16.000
<v Speaker 3>Furthermore, even belief the mantle, the heat slowly permeates, the

494
00:24:16.039 --> 00:24:20.160
<v Speaker 3>ice beneath the crust still sublimates, but the gas is trapped.

495
00:24:20.440 --> 00:24:21.559
<v Speaker 2>Oh a pressure cooker.

496
00:24:21.720 --> 00:24:25.559
<v Speaker 3>Yes, it creates localized high pressure subsurface pockets that eventually

497
00:24:25.599 --> 00:24:29.519
<v Speaker 3>explode through the crust, creating sudden, violent bursts of momentum,

498
00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:32.799
<v Speaker 3>whether it is depleting its fuel or choking on its

499
00:24:32.839 --> 00:24:36.799
<v Speaker 3>own debris. The timeline is what truly shocks the astronomical community.

500
00:24:36.920 --> 00:24:38.319
<v Speaker 2>Right the sixteen year gap.

501
00:24:38.559 --> 00:24:42.279
<v Speaker 3>Yes, the structural evolution of comets, the gradual building of

502
00:24:42.319 --> 00:24:45.319
<v Speaker 3>a thick mantle, or the complete exhaustion of volatile reserves.

503
00:24:45.599 --> 00:24:48.839
<v Speaker 3>These are processes that standard models dictate should take centuries

504
00:24:48.920 --> 00:24:49.519
<v Speaker 3>or millennia.

505
00:24:49.680 --> 00:24:51.200
<v Speaker 2>Right, space time is deep time.

506
00:24:51.359 --> 00:24:54.839
<v Speaker 3>We assume these changes happen on deep cosmic timescales. But

507
00:24:54.920 --> 00:24:57.720
<v Speaker 3>with forty one p the data proves it dropped ninety

508
00:24:57.720 --> 00:25:00.640
<v Speaker 3>percent of its activity in just sixteen years. We are

509
00:25:00.680 --> 00:25:03.680
<v Speaker 3>watching cosmic evolution, the actual aging and dying of a

510
00:25:03.680 --> 00:25:07.319
<v Speaker 3>celestial body unfolding on a human timescale.

511
00:25:06.640 --> 00:25:08.680
<v Speaker 2>Which naturally forces us to look at the math of

512
00:25:08.720 --> 00:25:12.000
<v Speaker 2>its future. We have a rapidly deteriorating comet. We have

513
00:25:12.039 --> 00:25:16.880
<v Speaker 2>a wildly fluctuating asymmetrical rotational spin. We have a structurally

514
00:25:16.920 --> 00:25:19.400
<v Speaker 2>compromised weak body of ice.

515
00:25:19.160 --> 00:25:21.119
<v Speaker 3>And rock, a recipe for disaster.

516
00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:24.960
<v Speaker 2>When David Jewett ran the predictive modeling on these specific

517
00:25:25.000 --> 00:25:28.279
<v Speaker 2>torques and mass loss rates, what does the physics say

518
00:25:28.359 --> 00:25:32.000
<v Speaker 2>happens next? How does the story of forty one p end?

519
00:25:32.359 --> 00:25:37.200
<v Speaker 3>The physics point toward a mathematically inevitable and highly violent conclusion.

520
00:25:37.920 --> 00:25:41.319
<v Speaker 3>The continuous radical changes in angular momentum are subjecting the

521
00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:44.319
<v Speaker 3>comet to extreme mechanical stress I can imagine. And the

522
00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:47.079
<v Speaker 3>ultimate threat here isn't the Sun's heat melting it away.

523
00:25:47.559 --> 00:25:49.279
<v Speaker 3>The threat is centrifical force.

524
00:25:49.440 --> 00:25:52.039
<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's make sure the mechanics a centrifugal force are

525
00:25:52.079 --> 00:25:55.160
<v Speaker 2>perfectly clear for everyone. If you take a wet tennis ball,

526
00:25:55.599 --> 00:25:57.640
<v Speaker 2>soak it in a bucket of water, and then spin

527
00:25:57.720 --> 00:26:02.160
<v Speaker 2>it incredibly fast, the water violently flies outward in all directions.

528
00:26:02.279 --> 00:26:02.759
<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

529
00:26:02.799 --> 00:26:05.920
<v Speaker 2>The spinning motion creates an outward push, pulling mass away

530
00:26:05.960 --> 00:26:09.400
<v Speaker 2>from the center of rotation. If you spin something fast enough,

531
00:26:09.680 --> 00:26:13.119
<v Speaker 2>the outward centrifical force becomes stronger than the internal bonds

532
00:26:13.119 --> 00:26:15.039
<v Speaker 2>holding the object together, and.

533
00:26:15.240 --> 00:26:18.559
<v Speaker 3>We return to the core vulnerability of forty one p

534
00:26:18.720 --> 00:26:22.960
<v Speaker 3>its diminutive size. Because it is only one kilometer wide,

535
00:26:23.119 --> 00:26:25.400
<v Speaker 3>its self gravity is incredibly weak.

536
00:26:25.559 --> 00:26:26.599
<v Speaker 2>Right, you could jump right off it.

537
00:26:26.799 --> 00:26:30.079
<v Speaker 3>Furthermore, comets are not solid blocks of granite. They are

538
00:26:30.200 --> 00:26:35.319
<v Speaker 3>highly porous, structurally fragile agglomerations of ice, dust, and loose rock.

539
00:26:35.799 --> 00:26:39.680
<v Speaker 3>They are essentially giant, loosely packed dirty snowballs.

540
00:26:39.720 --> 00:26:41.880
<v Speaker 2>That's a great way to put it, dirty snowballs.

541
00:26:41.960 --> 00:26:45.400
<v Speaker 3>Their internal tensile strength is remarkable low, so it's.

542
00:26:45.279 --> 00:26:47.720
<v Speaker 2>Barely holding itself together under normal circumstances.

543
00:26:47.920 --> 00:26:52.119
<v Speaker 3>So as these rogue outgassing jets continue to misfire. If

544
00:26:52.160 --> 00:26:55.480
<v Speaker 3>they push the kana's rotational velocity just slightly past a

545
00:26:55.519 --> 00:27:00.200
<v Speaker 3>critical threshold, the outward centrifical forces will completely overpower are

546
00:27:00.240 --> 00:27:03.680
<v Speaker 3>the comets weak gravity and its fragile internal cohesion. All

547
00:27:03.839 --> 00:27:06.519
<v Speaker 3>man the force attempting to fling the material outward into

548
00:27:06.559 --> 00:27:09.440
<v Speaker 3>space will become greater than the gravity pulling it inward.

549
00:27:09.519 --> 00:27:12.079
<v Speaker 2>It hits the rotational equivalent of the roch limit. The

550
00:27:12.160 --> 00:27:14.599
<v Speaker 2>internal physics just give up. And what does that look like?

551
00:27:14.640 --> 00:27:15.799
<v Speaker 2>Does it just crack an half?

552
00:27:15.839 --> 00:27:19.160
<v Speaker 3>It looks like catastrophic disintegration. The nucleus will literally tear

553
00:27:19.200 --> 00:27:22.640
<v Speaker 3>itself apart from the inside out, unbelievable. It will shatter

554
00:27:22.759 --> 00:27:27.079
<v Speaker 3>into a massive debris feel of expanding ice, dust and boulders,

555
00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:31.319
<v Speaker 3>completely dissolving its physical form and spreading its remains across

556
00:27:31.359 --> 00:27:35.960
<v Speaker 3>its five point four year orbital track. David Jewett looked

557
00:27:35.960 --> 00:27:40.480
<v Speaker 3>at the torque calculations and was completely unambiguous about the prognosis.

558
00:27:40.519 --> 00:27:41.160
<v Speaker 2>What did he say?

559
00:27:41.599 --> 00:27:45.640
<v Speaker 3>He stated, I expect this nucleus will very quickly self destruct.

560
00:27:45.799 --> 00:27:50.160
<v Speaker 2>Wow, very quickly self destruct. It's chilling to hear an

561
00:27:50.200 --> 00:27:55.200
<v Speaker 2>ascophysicist use that kind of definitive, violent language regarding a

562
00:27:55.200 --> 00:27:56.119
<v Speaker 2>celestial body.

563
00:27:56.240 --> 00:27:56.880
<v Speaker 3>It's rare.

564
00:27:57.119 --> 00:27:59.400
<v Speaker 2>It paints a profoundly different picture of the Solar System

565
00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:02.000
<v Speaker 2>than the one we usually imagine. You have this object

566
00:28:02.000 --> 00:28:04.599
<v Speaker 2>that survived the chaotic formation of the Solar System four

567
00:28:04.640 --> 00:28:08.880
<v Speaker 2>point six billion years ago. It survived being violently ejected

568
00:28:08.880 --> 00:28:12.519
<v Speaker 2>by Jupiter. It successfully navigated the thermal shock of the

569
00:28:12.519 --> 00:28:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Sun for fifteen hundred years, and now suddenly it is

570
00:28:16.000 --> 00:28:19.400
<v Speaker 2>being ripped apart by its own internal gases, literally spinning

571
00:28:19.440 --> 00:28:21.680
<v Speaker 2>itself to death because it can't handle the physics of

572
00:28:21.720 --> 00:28:22.599
<v Speaker 2>its own sublimation.

573
00:28:22.799 --> 00:28:26.240
<v Speaker 3>It highlights how utterly fragile these small bodies actually are.

574
00:28:26.279 --> 00:28:29.480
<v Speaker 3>They aren't permanent fixtures in the sky. They are temporary,

575
00:28:29.680 --> 00:28:33.759
<v Speaker 3>delicate structures, entirely at the mercy of the thermodynamic environment.

576
00:28:34.039 --> 00:28:36.480
<v Speaker 2>It is a stark reminder of the dynamic violence of

577
00:28:36.599 --> 00:28:40.680
<v Speaker 2>orbital mechanics. But you know, the entire narrative of forty

578
00:28:40.759 --> 00:28:44.279
<v Speaker 2>one p's impending destruction is underscored by the methodology of

579
00:28:44.319 --> 00:28:47.400
<v Speaker 2>the discovery itself. Absolutely, we wouldn't know any of this.

580
00:28:47.680 --> 00:28:50.960
<v Speaker 2>We wouldn't understand the violent torque of asymmetrical jets or

581
00:28:51.000 --> 00:28:55.400
<v Speaker 2>the incredibly rapid sixteen year aging process if it weren't

582
00:28:55.400 --> 00:28:59.039
<v Speaker 2>for the philosophy of modern astronomical data archiving. It's true,

583
00:28:59.279 --> 00:29:00.720
<v Speaker 2>this is the part of the story that I find

584
00:29:00.720 --> 00:29:05.319
<v Speaker 2>most inspiring. The unsung hero here isn't a new multi

585
00:29:05.359 --> 00:29:08.359
<v Speaker 2>billion dollar piece of hardware launched in orbit yesterday.

586
00:29:08.480 --> 00:29:09.200
<v Speaker 3>No, not at all.

587
00:29:09.240 --> 00:29:12.000
<v Speaker 2>The hero is the digital filing cabinet. The hero is

588
00:29:12.039 --> 00:29:15.759
<v Speaker 2>the patient meticulous mining of old, ignored data.

589
00:29:15.839 --> 00:29:18.839
<v Speaker 3>Consider the timeline of discovery again. The baseline observation was

590
00:29:18.839 --> 00:29:22.519
<v Speaker 3>March twenty seventeen, the swift slowdown was May twenty seventeen,

591
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:25.559
<v Speaker 3>and the shocking violent spin reversal was captured by the

592
00:29:25.599 --> 00:29:28.759
<v Speaker 3>Hubble Space Telescope in December twenty seventeen. But the incredible

593
00:29:28.839 --> 00:29:31.039
<v Speaker 3>truth is that when Hubble captured that light curve in

594
00:29:31.079 --> 00:29:33.839
<v Speaker 3>December of twenty seventeen, no one on Earth realized what

595
00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:34.880
<v Speaker 3>they just photographed.

596
00:29:35.079 --> 00:29:39.400
<v Speaker 2>That blows my mind. The telescope recorded the impossible physics,

597
00:29:39.720 --> 00:29:42.200
<v Speaker 2>downloaded the telemetry to servers on Earth, and it was

598
00:29:42.359 --> 00:29:47.000
<v Speaker 2>just quietly filed away. No alarm bells went off, no

599
00:29:47.079 --> 00:29:49.799
<v Speaker 2>one was watching the live feed shouting eureka.

600
00:29:49.880 --> 00:29:53.279
<v Speaker 3>It simply became another data point in an impossibly vast

601
00:29:53.359 --> 00:29:57.559
<v Speaker 3>ocean of information. To understand how a discovery this massive

602
00:29:57.599 --> 00:30:00.839
<v Speaker 3>gets buried, you have to look at the sheer, overwhelming

603
00:30:00.839 --> 00:30:02.559
<v Speaker 3>output of modern observatories.

604
00:30:02.640 --> 00:30:03.519
<v Speaker 2>It's a lot of data.

605
00:30:03.559 --> 00:30:06.480
<v Speaker 3>The Hubble Space Telescope has been gazing into the deep

606
00:30:06.559 --> 00:30:11.319
<v Speaker 3>universe collecting high resolution imaging and complex spectroscopic data for

607
00:30:11.359 --> 00:30:14.640
<v Speaker 3>over three decades. It is an absolute fire hose of

608
00:30:14.680 --> 00:30:15.599
<v Speaker 3>cosmic telemetry.

609
00:30:15.640 --> 00:30:19.000
<v Speaker 2>It's capturing infinitely more data than the global astronomical community

610
00:30:19.079 --> 00:30:20.799
<v Speaker 2>can possibly analyze in real time.

611
00:30:20.880 --> 00:30:23.920
<v Speaker 3>Precisely, and because of that immense volume, NASA and the

612
00:30:23.920 --> 00:30:28.119
<v Speaker 3>Space Telescope Science Institute established the mcculski Archive for Space Telescopes,

613
00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:31.480
<v Speaker 3>commonly known as mass mast okay. This is a massive,

614
00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:36.480
<v Speaker 3>centralized repository that holds the raw and calibrated data not

615
00:30:36.599 --> 00:30:39.799
<v Speaker 3>just from Hubble, but from over a dozen different space

616
00:30:39.880 --> 00:30:45.319
<v Speaker 3>based and ground based astronomical missions. Every photon captured, every

617
00:30:45.440 --> 00:30:49.400
<v Speaker 3>light curve measured, is uploaded into this archive and made

618
00:30:49.440 --> 00:30:51.079
<v Speaker 3>freely available to researchers.

619
00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:53.799
<v Speaker 2>It is the ultimate open source library of the cosmos.

620
00:30:54.480 --> 00:30:57.720
<v Speaker 2>And it was inside this specific digital library that David

621
00:30:57.799 --> 00:31:00.559
<v Speaker 2>Jewett was simply browsing years after the fame. He was

622
00:31:00.640 --> 00:31:03.440
<v Speaker 2>just looking, He wasn't comment during telescope time. He was

623
00:31:03.440 --> 00:31:05.960
<v Speaker 2>sifting through the MAAST records, pulled at the files on

624
00:31:06.039 --> 00:31:08.880
<v Speaker 2>forty one p from late twenty seventeen and realized that

625
00:31:08.920 --> 00:31:12.119
<v Speaker 2>the specific Hubble light curves from December had never been

626
00:31:12.119 --> 00:31:12.839
<v Speaker 2>fully modeled.

627
00:31:13.279 --> 00:31:16.279
<v Speaker 3>No one had done the complex mathematical work to extract

628
00:31:16.279 --> 00:31:19.759
<v Speaker 3>the rotational period from those specific pixels. Jewett applied the

629
00:31:19.799 --> 00:31:22.240
<v Speaker 3>math to the archival data, and the ghost emerged from

630
00:31:22.279 --> 00:31:25.400
<v Speaker 3>the machine. Incredible, the spin reversal revealed itself on a

631
00:31:25.400 --> 00:31:28.680
<v Speaker 3>computer monitor, years after the physical event had already occurred

632
00:31:28.759 --> 00:31:29.839
<v Speaker 3>in the vacuum of space.

633
00:31:30.160 --> 00:31:34.200
<v Speaker 2>This completely upends the romanticized Hollywood version of science, doesn't it.

634
00:31:34.200 --> 00:31:37.839
<v Speaker 2>We always picture the lone genius peering through a frosted

635
00:31:37.880 --> 00:31:41.279
<v Speaker 2>eyepiece on a mountaintop, gasping as a new comet streaks

636
00:31:41.279 --> 00:31:42.079
<v Speaker 2>across the lens.

637
00:31:42.200 --> 00:31:44.759
<v Speaker 3>A very dramatic image, but not very accurate.

638
00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Right. The reality of modern astrophysics is often much quieter,

639
00:31:49.119 --> 00:31:52.319
<v Speaker 2>and in many ways much more profound. It is the

640
00:31:52.319 --> 00:31:55.799
<v Speaker 2>realization that the truth of the universe, the evidence of

641
00:31:55.839 --> 00:31:59.279
<v Speaker 2>a dying comet spinning violently backward, was sitting on a hard.

642
00:31:59.200 --> 00:32:01.160
<v Speaker 3>Drive the entire time, hidden in plain sight.

643
00:32:01.400 --> 00:32:03.519
<v Speaker 2>It was like finding a winning lottery ticket in the

644
00:32:03.559 --> 00:32:05.920
<v Speaker 2>pocket of a winter coat you haven't worn in three years.

645
00:32:06.519 --> 00:32:10.039
<v Speaker 2>The data didn't change, the stars didn't change. The only

646
00:32:10.079 --> 00:32:12.319
<v Speaker 2>thing that changed was a human being deciding to ask

647
00:32:12.359 --> 00:32:15.000
<v Speaker 2>the right question and having the curiosity to look at

648
00:32:15.000 --> 00:32:16.240
<v Speaker 2>the old data in the new way.

649
00:32:16.559 --> 00:32:19.920
<v Speaker 3>The philosophy of open science is rapidly becoming the most

650
00:32:19.960 --> 00:32:23.759
<v Speaker 3>powerful tool in astronomy. Space exploration is no longer solely

651
00:32:23.799 --> 00:32:28.200
<v Speaker 3>defined by the massive, multi billion dollar engineering challenges of

652
00:32:28.319 --> 00:32:30.039
<v Speaker 3>launching new mirrors into the void.

653
00:32:30.160 --> 00:32:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Right, the hardware is just step one exactly.

654
00:32:32.720 --> 00:32:36.319
<v Speaker 3>It is equally defined by data mining. The archive itself

655
00:32:36.400 --> 00:32:39.680
<v Speaker 3>is a universe waiting to be explored. By ensuring that

656
00:32:39.720 --> 00:32:43.920
<v Speaker 3>petabytes of raw astronomical data are open, preserved, and accessible,

657
00:32:44.279 --> 00:32:47.640
<v Speaker 3>we guarantee that observations can be endlessly revisited to answer

658
00:32:47.759 --> 00:32:50.279
<v Speaker 3>questions that scientists in twenty seventeen didn't even know they

659
00:32:50.319 --> 00:32:51.119
<v Speaker 3>needed to ask.

660
00:32:51.680 --> 00:32:56.400
<v Speaker 2>It's a phenomenal synthesis of human curiosity and raw computational physics.

661
00:32:57.200 --> 00:33:00.440
<v Speaker 2>If we trace the entire narrative arc of commat forty one,

662
00:33:00.640 --> 00:33:05.119
<v Speaker 2>we start with a fragile, microscopic rock Asian just three

663
00:33:05.160 --> 00:33:08.480
<v Speaker 2>Eiffel towers cross born billions of years ago in the

664
00:33:08.480 --> 00:33:12.240
<v Speaker 2>crygenic deep frieze of the Kuiper Belt. It gets gravitationally

665
00:33:12.279 --> 00:33:15.480
<v Speaker 2>bullied by Jupiter, permanently evicted into a fifteen hundred year

666
00:33:15.559 --> 00:33:18.519
<v Speaker 2>loop of thermal torture. Then, in a span of just

667
00:33:18.559 --> 00:33:22.200
<v Speaker 2>sixteen years, it rapidly ages, losing ninety percent of its

668
00:33:22.240 --> 00:33:25.720
<v Speaker 2>activity as it either exhausts its fuel or suffocates under.

669
00:33:25.599 --> 00:33:27.440
<v Speaker 3>Its own debris, a tragic end.

670
00:33:27.599 --> 00:33:31.119
<v Speaker 2>And finally, the sun superheats its remaining asymmetrical ice patches,

671
00:33:31.240 --> 00:33:34.079
<v Speaker 2>turning them into rogue rocket thrusters that violently break the

672
00:33:34.079 --> 00:33:38.119
<v Speaker 2>commet's momentum and hurl it into an unprecedented, catastrophic reverse spin.

673
00:33:38.279 --> 00:33:40.799
<v Speaker 3>It really sounds like science fiction when you summarize.

674
00:33:40.319 --> 00:33:40.680
<v Speaker 1>It like that.

675
00:33:40.960 --> 00:33:45.240
<v Speaker 2>It does. Now plagued by the immense stress of centrifugal force,

676
00:33:45.720 --> 00:33:49.319
<v Speaker 2>it is mathematically destined to tear its own fragile body apart,

677
00:33:49.720 --> 00:33:52.319
<v Speaker 2>leaving nothing but a ghost trail of dust in its wake.

678
00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:55.880
<v Speaker 2>And the entire violent saga was decoded from a forgotten

679
00:33:55.880 --> 00:33:56.559
<v Speaker 2>computer file.

680
00:33:56.880 --> 00:34:00.319
<v Speaker 3>It perfectly dismantles the illusion of a static universe. The

681
00:34:00.400 --> 00:34:03.559
<v Speaker 3>night sky is not a calm, predictable tapestry. It is

682
00:34:03.599 --> 00:34:09.519
<v Speaker 3>a highly volatile, violently shifting thermodynamic engine constant motion. Celestial

683
00:34:09.559 --> 00:34:13.159
<v Speaker 3>bodies are constantly reacting, decaying, and being destroyed by the

684
00:34:13.199 --> 00:34:16.000
<v Speaker 3>invisible forces of gravity and radiation, and.

685
00:34:15.960 --> 00:34:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Our ability to comprehend that beautiful, terrifying chaos relies on

686
00:34:20.320 --> 00:34:23.719
<v Speaker 2>our willingness to meticulously preserve and re examine our own.

687
00:34:23.519 --> 00:34:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Records, which leaves us with a rather profound implication to consider.

688
00:34:27.480 --> 00:34:31.199
<v Speaker 3>If a single unanalyzed file from twenty seventeen could fundamentally

689
00:34:31.239 --> 00:34:35.440
<v Speaker 3>shift our understanding of comet mechanics and reveal a completely unprecedented,

690
00:34:35.519 --> 00:34:38.559
<v Speaker 3>violent rotational reversal hiding in plain sight, what else is

691
00:34:38.599 --> 00:34:39.199
<v Speaker 3>in the archive?

692
00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:40.519
<v Speaker 2>That's a huge question.

693
00:34:40.880 --> 00:34:45.800
<v Speaker 3>What other universe breaking anomalies, dying stars, or silent cosmic

694
00:34:45.840 --> 00:34:50.280
<v Speaker 3>catastrophes are sitting quietly on a server right now, completely undetected,

695
00:34:50.639 --> 00:34:53.280
<v Speaker 3>simply waiting for someone curious enough to open the file.

696
00:34:53.599 --> 00:34:57.039
<v Speaker 2>The answers to the universe's greatest mysteries might not require

697
00:34:57.039 --> 00:34:59.639
<v Speaker 2>a new telescope. They might just require us to look

698
00:34:59.639 --> 00:36:31.000
<v Speaker 2>close at the light we've already captured.

699
00:36:24.280 --> 00:36:24.320
<v Speaker 3>U
