WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.600 --> 00:00:02.919 This is Gary and Shannon and you're listening to KFI 2 00:00:03.080 --> 00:00:05.839 AM six forty the Gary and Shannon Show on demand 3 00:00:05.919 --> 00:00:07.559 on the iHeartRadio app. 4 00:00:09.919 --> 00:00:14.080 Twenty four hours makes a pretty significant difference in the 5 00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:16.239 posture we find ourselves in. 6 00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:18.559 President Trump. 7 00:00:19.760 --> 00:00:22.719 Somehow was able to get a ceasefire deal, it appears, 8 00:00:22.800 --> 00:00:24.920 between Iran and Israel. 9 00:00:25.199 --> 00:00:30.679 He is fancying himself as the framer of this ceasefire, 10 00:00:31.640 --> 00:00:33.719 as the guy who went in and made the deal 11 00:00:33.719 --> 00:00:36.479 and got it done, and then he advertised it as such. 12 00:00:37.039 --> 00:00:39.759 To me, this is clearly someone in Iran is just 13 00:00:39.840 --> 00:00:42.880 pissed off and says, you know what, I am not 14 00:00:43.039 --> 00:00:46.320 giving up, I am not surrendering, and fires off whatever 15 00:00:46.600 --> 00:00:47.840 he has control over. 16 00:00:48.679 --> 00:00:50.399 One of the Yeah, last gas. 17 00:00:50.560 --> 00:00:53.799 Yeah, We've seen it before. We've seen it in conflicts before. 18 00:00:55.119 --> 00:00:58.719 So there was there was a very long drawn out 19 00:00:58.759 --> 00:01:01.039 description of what was going to happened with the two 20 00:01:01.119 --> 00:01:03.920 sides between Israel and Iran when that first deal came 21 00:01:03.960 --> 00:01:07.159 out yesterday afternoon our time, and it was a suggestion 22 00:01:07.359 --> 00:01:10.599 that one side was going to stop whatever it's doing, 23 00:01:10.680 --> 00:01:13.000 and then six hours later the other side was going 24 00:01:13.079 --> 00:01:15.319 to stop whatever it was doing, and then twelve hours 25 00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:19.359 after that both sides would be committed to a complete 26 00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:22.959 ceasefire for twenty four hours, after which a full listen. 27 00:01:22.959 --> 00:01:24.480 There are a lot of steps on there. It didn't 28 00:01:24.480 --> 00:01:29.519 make a lot of sense. Something happened, someone fired off 29 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:33.359 a missile or missiles it looks like towards northern Israel 30 00:01:34.159 --> 00:01:36.439 didn't cause any damage. Whether it was taken down or 31 00:01:36.480 --> 00:01:41.480 it fell into an area that was not populated also unclear. 32 00:01:42.079 --> 00:01:45.200 But there was then a phone call that took place 33 00:01:45.239 --> 00:01:49.159 between President Trump and Benjamin and Yahoo because Israelis were like, oh, 34 00:01:49.159 --> 00:01:51.359 we're not going to let that stand. You can't just 35 00:01:51.400 --> 00:01:54.439 break a ceasefire and not have us punch back. So 36 00:01:55.439 --> 00:01:59.040 the President this morning is on Air Force one and 37 00:01:59.079 --> 00:02:03.319 he's headed towards the Netherlands for the big NATO summit 38 00:02:03.319 --> 00:02:05.200 that's coming up this week, which by the way, also 39 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:09.639 takes on a completely different tone, and he joint is pissed. 40 00:02:09.680 --> 00:02:12.240 He went after both Israel and Iran. 41 00:02:12.439 --> 00:02:15.080 You know, when I say, okay, now you have twelve hours, 42 00:02:15.560 --> 00:02:17.479 you don't go out in the first hour. It just 43 00:02:17.560 --> 00:02:19.719 drop everything you have on him. So I'm not happy 44 00:02:19.759 --> 00:02:22.800 with them. I'm not happy with Iran either, but I'm 45 00:02:22.840 --> 00:02:25.800 really unhappy if Israel's going out this morning because the 46 00:02:25.919 --> 00:02:29.520 one rocket that didn't land, that was shut perhaps by 47 00:02:29.599 --> 00:02:34.919 mistake that didn't land. I'm not happy about that. What 48 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.360 we have, we basically have two countries that have been 49 00:02:38.360 --> 00:02:41.439 fighting so long and so hard that they don't know 50 00:02:41.439 --> 00:02:43.560 what the food they're doing. Do you understand that? 51 00:02:43.639 --> 00:02:46.960 And then he walked away and immediately boarded air Force. 52 00:02:47.080 --> 00:02:48.560 I'm sorry, Marine won. 53 00:02:48.680 --> 00:02:49.360 I asked you. 54 00:02:49.479 --> 00:02:53.680 I don't remember publicly hearing a president used the F 55 00:02:53.719 --> 00:02:54.560 word like that. 56 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:57.639 Just shows how pissed off he just is. 57 00:02:58.599 --> 00:03:01.400 Considering. He put his name on this ceasefire. Yeah, well, 58 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:05.319 and he named the war. He did the twelve Day 59 00:03:05.360 --> 00:03:07.400 War call of the twelve Day War as it should 60 00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:09.800 be known from here on out, the Twelve Day War. 61 00:03:09.960 --> 00:03:11.599 Like he's writing the history books. 62 00:03:12.360 --> 00:03:13.560 I'm pretty good at marketing. 63 00:03:14.439 --> 00:03:16.520 This is a brand manager. 64 00:03:18.319 --> 00:03:21.879 Barackravid is a writer for Axios, and he talks about 65 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:24.599 this phone call that allegedly took place. Well, we know 66 00:03:24.639 --> 00:03:28.479 it took place, but the tone of the call between 67 00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:34.000 President Trump and Benjamin NETANYAHUO, which apparently convinced the Israeli 68 00:03:34.039 --> 00:03:38.680 Prime minister to basically stop whatever retaliatory attack he was 69 00:03:38.719 --> 00:03:42.439 going to impose on Iran for that lone missile that 70 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:44.800 was fired despite their being a ceasefire. 71 00:03:44.879 --> 00:03:49.919 One US official told me, Trump was very direct and 72 00:03:50.120 --> 00:03:53.599 firm with what he told Natani. He basically told nat 73 00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:58.400 aboard mission and Nataniau, according to Israeli officials, told the 74 00:03:58.439 --> 00:04:03.439 President look and to board mission. The Ranians violated the ceasefire, 75 00:04:03.479 --> 00:04:06.360 the fire the missile. I have to do something. So 76 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.560 at the end, Atanyao told Trump that he's going to 77 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:12.159 scale back this attack. And from a list of a 78 00:04:12.240 --> 00:04:16.199 dozen targets, many of them in the center of Tehran, 79 00:04:17.600 --> 00:04:21.439 at the end, the IDF struck one target, one radar 80 00:04:21.639 --> 00:04:22.759 outside of Tehran. 81 00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:25.360 Okay, there's a couple things to keep in mind here. 82 00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:31.040 There have been seven four and ninety seven ceasefires in 83 00:04:31.079 --> 00:04:33.040 the Middle East in the last one hundred years. 84 00:04:33.480 --> 00:04:34.199 This is not. 85 00:04:35.480 --> 00:04:38.800 All kudos and all credit to the parties that are 86 00:04:38.800 --> 00:04:41.959 involved here for this being a ceasefire to ratchet down 87 00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:45.600 what we saw a week ago as the doorsteps to 88 00:04:45.639 --> 00:04:49.000 World War three. So that's good, but this does not 89 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:52.120 mean this is over by any means. And in fact, 90 00:04:52.600 --> 00:04:57.759 we know that an Iraqi army spokesman has said that 91 00:04:58.439 --> 00:05:03.600 drones hit some military bases in Iraq, including some where 92 00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:06.800 American forces are stationed. That is very different than the 93 00:05:06.800 --> 00:05:10.519 missile barrage that we saw yesterday towards the American air 94 00:05:10.519 --> 00:05:14.319 base in Kaher. But this does not necessarily mean it 95 00:05:14.360 --> 00:05:17.839 is over all. Ceasefires in that part of the world 96 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:21.079 are tenuous at best. 97 00:05:22.279 --> 00:05:25.680 Yes, but this one seems to be like it is 98 00:05:25.759 --> 00:05:31.399 going to be lasting in my opinion, Number one, because 99 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:36.480 Iran has nothing, and what does Iran have Iran everyone's 100 00:05:36.519 --> 00:05:38.519 trying to pretend that they have won this or trying 101 00:05:38.519 --> 00:05:40.560 to frame this or spin this or whatever you want 102 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:41.120 to say about that. 103 00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:44.720 How they have won. Whether it's United States coming. 104 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:48.199 In and decimating Iran's nuclear program and then putting in 105 00:05:48.240 --> 00:05:51.839 place a ceasefire, whether it's Israel taking full advantage of 106 00:05:51.839 --> 00:05:55.160 the attacks from October seventh and going after Hesbalah and 107 00:05:55.199 --> 00:05:58.959 Hamas and now Iran and enlisting the United States to 108 00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:04.079 do its dirty work, or Aroan striking that air base 109 00:06:04.399 --> 00:06:08.560 and doing so stopping all further attacks from Israel and 110 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:11.759 the United States so that they can rebuild their nuclear program. 111 00:06:12.079 --> 00:06:14.120 Everybody has a way to spin this so that they 112 00:06:14.160 --> 00:06:16.839 have won at this moment, and I don't think anybody 113 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:19.639 wants to ruin that, all right? Coming up next, oil 114 00:06:19.680 --> 00:06:23.439 prices dropping further. We talked about this yesterday, stops pulling 115 00:06:23.480 --> 00:06:25.920 close to their all time high on hopes that this 116 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:27.079 thing has died down. 117 00:06:27.480 --> 00:06:29.000 We'll get you the details when we come back. 118 00:06:29.079 --> 00:06:31.120 Also a chance for you don't want a thousand bucks. 119 00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:33.759 Right around the corner, you're. 120 00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:37.319 Listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM 121 00:06:37.319 --> 00:06:37.879 six forty. 122 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:42.240 I love the way the Associated Press writes this up 123 00:06:42.560 --> 00:06:46.959 of the Oklahoma City Thunder's victory parade for winning the 124 00:06:47.120 --> 00:06:50.319 NBA Finals is today, but listen to how the AP 125 00:06:50.560 --> 00:06:55.759 writes it up. Oklahoma City's unwavering fans finally get to 126 00:06:55.759 --> 00:07:00.639 celebrate a championship after several close calls and heartbreaking moments. 127 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:03.240 The past two decades. Get the hell out of here. 128 00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:06.639 The Thunder has been in existence since two thousand and eight. 129 00:07:06.879 --> 00:07:10.639 Unwavering fans. Come on, Talk to the Bills fans. 130 00:07:10.319 --> 00:07:10.759 You know what I mean. 131 00:07:10.839 --> 00:07:13.240 Talk to a fan base that has been through it 132 00:07:13.399 --> 00:07:15.240 for more than two decades. 133 00:07:15.600 --> 00:07:17.279 How about you know the Bears. 134 00:07:18.319 --> 00:07:22.079 There's so many fan bases that look at that sentence 135 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:23.480 and just chuckle to themselves. 136 00:07:23.600 --> 00:07:25.000 Right since two thousand and. 137 00:07:24.920 --> 00:07:28.399 Eight, somebody somewhere as an eighty seven year old. I 138 00:07:28.399 --> 00:07:29.600 don't know White Sox. 139 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:36.000 Exactly who lived through the twenties. He lived through the 140 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:37.399 Black Sox scandal. 141 00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:40.399 Today is expected to be the hottest day of the 142 00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:44.279 week back in the Northeast, and municipalities have simply been 143 00:07:44.319 --> 00:07:48.000 telling people to stay inside. Temperatures about fifteen to twenty 144 00:07:48.040 --> 00:07:51.759 five degrees above average today and some areas will see 145 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:55.879 a heat index that feels like reading of around one 146 00:07:55.959 --> 00:08:00.199 hundred and ten degrees and again much more humid back there. 147 00:08:00.439 --> 00:08:03.319 Tropical Storm Andre is the first tropical storm of the 148 00:08:03.399 --> 00:08:06.000 season in the Atlantic, but it is in the middle 149 00:08:06.040 --> 00:08:08.000 of nowhere. It's not going to go and in fact, 150 00:08:08.000 --> 00:08:10.759 they're saying as quickly as it became a tropical storm, 151 00:08:10.759 --> 00:08:14.160 it will probably lose powers it makes its way farther 152 00:08:14.279 --> 00:08:15.480 north in the Atlantic. 153 00:08:15.680 --> 00:08:17.720 We have your chance at one thousand dollars. 154 00:08:20.240 --> 00:08:23.160 Now your chance to win one thousand dollars just enter 155 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:25.920 this nationwide keyword on our website Bonus. 156 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:28.800 That's bonus. Bo n Us. 157 00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:32.200 Editor now at KFI AM six forty dot com. Slash 158 00:08:32.279 --> 00:08:35.480 Cash powered by Sweet James Accident Attorneys. If you're hurting 159 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:38.000 an accident. Winning is everything. Call the winning attorneys at 160 00:08:38.039 --> 00:08:41.159 Sweet James one eight hundred nine million. That's one eight 161 00:08:41.240 --> 00:08:45.039 hundred nine million, or sweet James dot com again. Bonus 162 00:08:45.240 --> 00:08:48.399 is your word. It goes on that website. We'll do 163 00:08:48.440 --> 00:08:49.840 it again an hour from now. 164 00:08:50.759 --> 00:08:51.720 Extreme heat. 165 00:08:53.120 --> 00:08:55.600 I feel like we do this every year around summer 166 00:08:55.639 --> 00:08:57.399 time for you to tell people how to how to 167 00:08:57.519 --> 00:09:01.440 be careful. Yeah, hi, high, drink water out of the sun. 168 00:09:01.519 --> 00:09:03.879 It's amazing how many people don't know to drink water. 169 00:09:04.039 --> 00:09:06.120 It seems like it would be one of those things 170 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:10.399 that you would realize just common sense gets hotter, drink 171 00:09:10.480 --> 00:09:11.080 more water. 172 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:14.480 That's not the case. A lot of people don't drink water. 173 00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:19.039 It turns out, well, maybe it's done within the herd 174 00:09:19.080 --> 00:09:21.279 a little bit with dehydration. 175 00:09:21.720 --> 00:09:23.360 Well, if you're not smarter. 176 00:09:23.159 --> 00:09:25.320 Though, yeah, yeah, yeah, why not? Why not? 177 00:09:25.679 --> 00:09:26.639 I want you breeding. 178 00:09:27.720 --> 00:09:30.559 The Dow was up four forty seven, and like we 179 00:09:30.639 --> 00:09:37.000 talked about yesterday, oil prices, while up four percent on Sunday, 180 00:09:37.679 --> 00:09:39.559 were down seven percent yesterday. 181 00:09:40.120 --> 00:09:42.039 I'm sorry, no, I'm affirming. 182 00:09:43.399 --> 00:09:48.240 I love that, and down another six percent already today. 183 00:09:48.639 --> 00:09:51.120 Yesterday's volatility was. 184 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:57.440 Proven by the fact that oil for brint crude trading 185 00:09:57.960 --> 00:10:01.639 was about a twelve dollars swing, which was the widest 186 00:10:02.159 --> 00:10:06.639 range of volatility in the last several years. So to 187 00:10:06.679 --> 00:10:09.399 give you an idea, the concern was yesterday, at the 188 00:10:09.399 --> 00:10:11.639 beginning of the day we knew that Iran was going 189 00:10:11.679 --> 00:10:12.399 to retaliate. 190 00:10:12.519 --> 00:10:13.000 They did. 191 00:10:13.039 --> 00:10:15.559 There was discussion about shutting down the Straight of Horn Moose, 192 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:19.480 which we've said multiple times now is basically a route 193 00:10:19.519 --> 00:10:23.440 that sees twenty percent of the world's daily oil production 194 00:10:23.559 --> 00:10:26.000 shipped through there, that if they were to shut down 195 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.240 the Straight of Poor Moves, it was going to cause problems. 196 00:10:28.240 --> 00:10:30.679 We were going to see prices spiked to somewhere around 197 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:31.879 one hundred and thirty bucks a barrel. 198 00:10:32.279 --> 00:10:33.440 None of that has come true. 199 00:10:34.080 --> 00:10:37.279 Oil right now is down to six below sixty five 200 00:10:37.360 --> 00:10:40.799 dollars of barrels already down about four dollars today, and 201 00:10:41.159 --> 00:10:46.559 the expectation is now granted, there are people who have 202 00:10:46.639 --> 00:10:48.559 said here in California it doesn't matter. 203 00:10:49.000 --> 00:10:49.759 It does matter. 204 00:10:50.200 --> 00:10:53.000 I mean granted, our gas prices obviously are going to 205 00:10:53.000 --> 00:10:54.840 be much higher than the and we know that, we 206 00:10:54.879 --> 00:10:56.759 know there's a new tax going in so that part 207 00:10:56.759 --> 00:10:59.080 of it is frustrating and anger inducing. 208 00:10:59.120 --> 00:11:01.440 I get it, yes, but it matters greatly for the 209 00:11:01.440 --> 00:11:05.320 bigger picture glow. If you zoom out, falling oil prices 210 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:10.039 mean that the pressure is taken off inflation, which means 211 00:11:10.080 --> 00:11:14.080 that the FED will be more likely to cut interest rates. 212 00:11:14.480 --> 00:11:17.039 What happens If that happens, Wall Street. 213 00:11:16.799 --> 00:11:21.679 Gets excited because that means the economy gets a boost. 214 00:11:21.799 --> 00:11:25.480 It's cheaper for us and businesses to borrow money to 215 00:11:25.519 --> 00:11:28.360 buy a car, build a factory. 216 00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:31.799 Those could also give inflation more fuel. 217 00:11:32.600 --> 00:11:35.480 That's why the Fed has been kind of hesitant, very 218 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:39.279 conservative when it comes to cutting rates. However, this might 219 00:11:39.320 --> 00:11:42.559 move them closer to doing so, which is huge for 220 00:11:42.639 --> 00:11:46.840 the big picture. Obviously, if you're buying a car, buying 221 00:11:46.879 --> 00:11:48.600 a home, all the things that are signs of a 222 00:11:48.600 --> 00:11:49.279 good economy. 223 00:11:49.799 --> 00:11:52.200 One of the things also is yesterday we're talking about 224 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:57.120 the potential for American oil producers to increase production. One 225 00:11:57.159 --> 00:11:59.879 of the things that President Trump had suggested, in fact, 226 00:12:00.039 --> 00:12:01.759 on one of the truth Social put one of the 227 00:12:01.799 --> 00:12:04.759 many truth Social posts over the last seventy two hours 228 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:08.759 was he's watching you oil producers, and he wants you 229 00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:10.879 to crank it up. Drill, baby, drill, and all these 230 00:12:10.960 --> 00:12:16.320 other things that he's encouraging oil companies to do but 231 00:12:16.759 --> 00:12:19.200 for a lot of time. For a lot of the 232 00:12:19.480 --> 00:12:23.000 companies that produce oil through fracking here in the United States, 233 00:12:23.080 --> 00:12:27.039 they're saying, we don't just do it because the President 234 00:12:27.080 --> 00:12:29.799 tells us to do it. The President may be a 235 00:12:29.919 --> 00:12:32.759 very loud voice, and he may have the ability to 236 00:12:32.759 --> 00:12:35.440 sway markets one way or the other, but the market 237 00:12:35.519 --> 00:12:40.279 is the biggest voice, and the market, the actual supply 238 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:44.799 and demand, is what forces their hand when it comes 239 00:12:44.799 --> 00:12:48.360 to drilling or curbing production, et cetera. 240 00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:51.559 The reason he's saying I'm watching you is because oftentimes 241 00:12:51.559 --> 00:12:54.600 oil companies see any sort of strife in the Middle 242 00:12:54.639 --> 00:12:57.320 East and they think, oh, we'll earn some extra money here, 243 00:12:57.559 --> 00:13:00.279 we'll raise prices and that. In this way, we can say, oh, 244 00:13:00.320 --> 00:13:02.159 it's because of what's going on in the Middle East, 245 00:13:02.399 --> 00:13:05.120 which yet it has yet to have an impact on 246 00:13:05.159 --> 00:13:08.960 the oale companies, certainly not here at the same time 247 00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:10.759 things are going on in the Middle East. Takes some 248 00:13:10.840 --> 00:13:13.320 time for them to reach the oil companies and us 249 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:16.799 at the pump, but they totally exploit anything that's going 250 00:13:16.799 --> 00:13:18.559 on in the Middle East for their own financial gain. 251 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:20.240 So that's why saying I'm watching you. 252 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:23.080 I know it's not hurting you yet or hurting you 253 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:26.759 period maybe, but so if you raise rates, I'm going 254 00:13:26.799 --> 00:13:28.600 to see who's doing that, and I'm going to punish 255 00:13:28.679 --> 00:13:30.399 you through whatever means I can do. 256 00:13:30.440 --> 00:13:34.120 So here in Washington and Opak right now has increased 257 00:13:34.159 --> 00:13:38.279 output they did several weeks ago. So as of right now, 258 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:42.279 there's more crude oil in the market than we actually need. 259 00:13:42.360 --> 00:13:45.120 That's why we're seeing these prices go down four dollars 260 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:48.799 a barrel again. As of right now oil below sixty 261 00:13:48.840 --> 00:13:51.600 five dollars of barrel on the open market. 262 00:13:52.759 --> 00:13:52.919 Love. 263 00:13:53.759 --> 00:13:55.639 I was just going to say, Republicans do things for 264 00:13:55.679 --> 00:14:01.080 oil companies. Democratic presidents not so much. Company is probably 265 00:14:01.159 --> 00:14:03.559 more apt to raise the rates a little bit with 266 00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:05.639 a Democrat sitting in the office, because there's no way 267 00:14:05.679 --> 00:14:08.039 they can explain any sort of break to the whale 268 00:14:08.080 --> 00:14:09.559 companies to their constituency. 269 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:13.039 When we come back, we're going to talk more about 270 00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:15.759 what the future is going to hold, whether it's the 271 00:14:15.759 --> 00:14:18.200 short term future of the next few days and weeks 272 00:14:18.879 --> 00:14:21.120 or a couple of years down the road. Benjamin rad 273 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:23.240 a lecturer in law at UCLA School of Law, is 274 00:14:23.279 --> 00:14:27.279 an expert when it comes to foreign policies, specifically that 275 00:14:27.399 --> 00:14:28.120 part of the world. 276 00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:33.000 You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI 277 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:34.120 AM six forty. 278 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:38.399 We are continuing our coverage of what is going on 279 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:41.480 in the Middle East, our involvement in it as well. 280 00:14:41.519 --> 00:14:46.600 Benjamin Rad is a lecture at UCLA Law School. He 281 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:49.879 is an authority on government politics in the Middle East, 282 00:14:49.919 --> 00:14:54.840 in particular Iran as well as US foreign policy. And 283 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:58.440 Benjamin Rad it seems like for those who have tracked 284 00:14:58.480 --> 00:15:02.840 Iran's nuclear ambition this moment what's going on was not 285 00:15:02.919 --> 00:15:06.559 a surprise. It was inevitable, certainly after October seventh. 286 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:11.600 Indeed, we've known now for very long time about Iran's 287 00:15:11.679 --> 00:15:14.840 nuclear goals and it's been no secret. It's been documented 288 00:15:14.879 --> 00:15:18.919 and reported on by the International Atomic Energy Agency, And again, 289 00:15:18.960 --> 00:15:22.679 as you mentioned, after October seventh, for many, especially Israelis, 290 00:15:23.039 --> 00:15:26.039 it was felt that there was a risk that simply 291 00:15:26.039 --> 00:15:29.600 couldn't be tolerated anymore, that its attacks of that nature 292 00:15:29.639 --> 00:15:32.559 were capable, and Iran is a supporter of proxy groups 293 00:15:32.559 --> 00:15:36.559 like Commas, that it was incumbent upon Israelis and others 294 00:15:36.759 --> 00:15:41.559 and allies to prevent Iran from possibly acquiring this level 295 00:15:41.600 --> 00:15:45.159 of knowledge and weaponry and maybe handing it off to others. 296 00:15:46.639 --> 00:15:48.919 Take us over the course in your mind of the 297 00:15:49.000 --> 00:15:52.360 last twenty four hours, we were talking about Irani retaliation 298 00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:56.840 firing missiles at an air base in Qatar, and then 299 00:15:57.120 --> 00:16:01.039 several hours later President Trump announced saying on truth Social 300 00:16:01.080 --> 00:16:04.279 that there had been a ceasefire agreed to. Obviously that's 301 00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:08.120 been tested already, but to me, this is one of 302 00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:12.799 the more impactful twenty four hour periods that we've seen, 303 00:16:12.960 --> 00:16:14.080 probably in decades. 304 00:16:16.159 --> 00:16:20.399 What we observed following the US strikes on the Iranian 305 00:16:20.519 --> 00:16:23.360 nuclear facilities over the weekend at fourtoh At Matans and 306 00:16:23.360 --> 00:16:26.840 at Esfahan was the intrance of the United States into 307 00:16:26.840 --> 00:16:29.759 the conflict, demonstrated that Iran was now fighting a multi 308 00:16:29.759 --> 00:16:32.399 front war. It was barely capable of fighting a single 309 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:36.000 front war against Israel, and it became very clear that 310 00:16:36.080 --> 00:16:37.600 it was not a war it was going to win. 311 00:16:38.000 --> 00:16:41.840 So the calculus really then becomes is is it worth 312 00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:46.759 continuing to fight at the risk of the regime toppling? 313 00:16:47.399 --> 00:16:50.159 And for the supreme leader, I's lahaminade I mean, he's 314 00:16:50.159 --> 00:16:52.679 been in power since nineteen eighty nine and he's done 315 00:16:52.720 --> 00:16:57.720 so not necessarily because he's a debt and then you know, politically, 316 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:01.080 but he's shrewd in the sense of survive, and for him, 317 00:17:01.519 --> 00:17:05.160 maintaining the system, maintaining the deocratic system of government they have, 318 00:17:05.559 --> 00:17:08.880 was the paramount concern. And so when the risk to 319 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:12.519 the system became evident and clear, that is when he, 320 00:17:13.039 --> 00:17:16.039 I believe, decided that it was no longer worth continuing 321 00:17:16.039 --> 00:17:19.039 the struggle, even if it meant an embarrassing loss. And 322 00:17:19.079 --> 00:17:20.759 that's really there's no other way to put it. That's 323 00:17:20.759 --> 00:17:23.240 what it was. This is a country that for years 324 00:17:23.279 --> 00:17:27.839 boasted of its ability to protect its nuclear program, protected 325 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:30.240 its people, protect its proxy groups, and it's been able 326 00:17:30.279 --> 00:17:32.880 to do none of those. As the events of the 327 00:17:32.920 --> 00:17:34.880 last two weeks of demonstrated. 328 00:17:34.680 --> 00:17:38.640 This theocracy seems to be precarious at best. I know 329 00:17:38.839 --> 00:17:41.440 enough to know I know nothing about Iran and what 330 00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:44.640 is going on, but I know that from what I've read, 331 00:17:44.680 --> 00:17:47.039 it seems like the first time since the nineteen seventy 332 00:17:47.119 --> 00:17:50.799 nine revolution that the United States could have a seat 333 00:17:50.799 --> 00:17:54.519 at the table in determining what happens with the future, 334 00:17:54.720 --> 00:17:57.440 specifically with security in Iran. 335 00:17:58.559 --> 00:17:59.480 Is that accurate. 336 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:03.680 Well, We're still a ways off from that and at 337 00:18:03.720 --> 00:18:06.640 this point, you know, it's all this talk of regime 338 00:18:06.720 --> 00:18:09.920 change and the change in the system. Regime change is 339 00:18:10.559 --> 00:18:13.440 easy to impose from without, but it can only be 340 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:17.200 endured from within it, meaning it requires a home grown, 341 00:18:17.279 --> 00:18:20.759 home led coordination and efforts and a buy in from 342 00:18:20.759 --> 00:18:23.599 the public. And that's what's missing at this moment, not 343 00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:26.640 because the desire for that isn't there, but because there 344 00:18:26.720 --> 00:18:31.839 is no central leadership. There's no figurehead, there's no one 345 00:18:31.839 --> 00:18:36.279 distinct movement to lead the people and their dissatisfaction towards 346 00:18:36.279 --> 00:18:39.400 a new system. So until that happens, there's really nobody 347 00:18:39.400 --> 00:18:41.680 for the Runnians to engage excuse me, the Americans to 348 00:18:41.799 --> 00:18:45.720 engage with directly there. And we still have to see 349 00:18:45.759 --> 00:18:48.400 now what cracks appear in the system from within. That's 350 00:18:48.400 --> 00:18:49.400 what we have to look up for. 351 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:50.920 I was sorry to interrupt. 352 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:54.960 I was just going to ask about the last us Backshaw, 353 00:18:55.559 --> 00:18:58.519 his son, I guess, who's been living in exile for 354 00:18:58.720 --> 00:19:01.880 four decades, kind of had a message to the people 355 00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:02.640 of Iran. 356 00:19:02.960 --> 00:19:03.720 Does he have. 357 00:19:03.640 --> 00:19:07.240 Any political standing there or does he have anybody who 358 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:11.000 who what is his if any is his standing there? 359 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:14.039 Yeah, that's a great that's a great question. There are 360 00:19:14.079 --> 00:19:17.039 a lot of Iranians living in the diaspora who have 361 00:19:17.200 --> 00:19:21.400 tremendous affection for Razapahalavi, the Lake Sha son, and also 362 00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:23.839 really for the monarchy that existed before. It was seen 363 00:19:23.880 --> 00:19:27.640 as sort of the healthy on days of Iranian civilization 364 00:19:27.720 --> 00:19:30.880 in the modern era, and so the desire to get 365 00:19:30.880 --> 00:19:33.799 back to something like that is amass But that doesn't 366 00:19:33.799 --> 00:19:36.480 mean that the people. These people are clamoring for a monarchy. 367 00:19:36.960 --> 00:19:40.480 More so, they're clamoring for the prestige in the life 368 00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:43.160 that they enjoyed and that the country enjoyed before the 369 00:19:43.200 --> 00:19:47.880 Islamic Revolution. Rezapala does have his admirers and followers, but 370 00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:50.880 within Iran it's complicated to know exactly what that is. 371 00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:54.319 He hasn't been in that country in almost forty six years. 372 00:19:55.359 --> 00:19:57.440 He spent almost all of his life, you know, in 373 00:19:57.480 --> 00:19:59.839 the United States, and prior to that, even when he 374 00:19:59.920 --> 00:20:03.440 was there he was nineteen when the revolution happened, he 375 00:20:03.839 --> 00:20:07.440 spent a lot of time educated in France. So he 376 00:20:07.480 --> 00:20:09.720 doesn't have the direct connection to the people. He is 377 00:20:09.799 --> 00:20:14.119 disconnected from the politics and the day to day livest 378 00:20:14.319 --> 00:20:17.599 The ordinary Iranians who've been living under this repressive regime 379 00:20:17.880 --> 00:20:21.160 have endured. So the concern is that he doesn't have 380 00:20:21.319 --> 00:20:25.079 that credibility that he would need with the rank and file, 381 00:20:25.160 --> 00:20:27.720 if you will, with the working class, with the social movements, 382 00:20:27.720 --> 00:20:31.119 with the labor movements, with ordinary Iranians who are needed 383 00:20:31.400 --> 00:20:34.000 to bring about something like this. Now, that doesn't discount 384 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:37.119 his potential. There's no one else on the scene right 385 00:20:37.160 --> 00:20:42.519 now that has his name, recognition or the bona fides 386 00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:44.799 in that sense. But that doesn't mean he's the best option. 387 00:20:45.359 --> 00:20:47.640 He's just right now the one that is in front 388 00:20:47.680 --> 00:20:48.319 of us. 389 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:52.599 How do we get information about the actual on the 390 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:59.079 ground conditions in Iran? Are we relying on Iranians communicating 391 00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:02.559 with their families outside of the country. The government of 392 00:21:02.559 --> 00:21:06.000 Iran has every reason to kind of make up stuff 393 00:21:06.039 --> 00:21:09.240 about the conditions. How do you get information about what's 394 00:21:09.279 --> 00:21:10.480 actually going on there? 395 00:21:11.799 --> 00:21:14.559 That's a fantastic question as well, And we do rely 396 00:21:14.799 --> 00:21:19.039 very much on social media, on Iranian social media, Iranians 397 00:21:19.160 --> 00:21:23.160 using American social media communicating with the outside world. They 398 00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:26.400 know the Internet's been shut down there recently. The government 399 00:21:26.480 --> 00:21:31.759 censors in general, so getting a direct feedback and sentiments 400 00:21:31.799 --> 00:21:35.079 is very difficult, even under the best of circumstances, and 401 00:21:35.279 --> 00:21:37.799