1 00:00:20,679 --> 00:00:25,719 Speaker 1: And welcome to the podcast, The Big Podcast. It's a 2 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,320 Thursday today. It's the twenty sixth day of June, Year 3 00:00:29,399 --> 00:00:32,880 of Our Lord, twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan. 4 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,280 We you know, it's this whole thing about the war 5 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,359 and the whole thing about the war, and now the 6 00:00:41,399 --> 00:00:45,359 debate about well, did anything happen, did anything happen down there? 7 00:00:45,399 --> 00:00:49,759 Did we blow up anything? Or is everything just fine? Well, 8 00:00:49,759 --> 00:00:52,640 it depends upon who you listen to, and where do 9 00:00:52,719 --> 00:00:55,560 you think the term propaganda came from. It came from 10 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,600 wars where everybody on either side. The iatola showed back 11 00:00:59,679 --> 00:01:04,840 up today he finally talked to the public and said 12 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:10,359 that they gave a hard slap to the US and Israel. 13 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,400 He's claiming everything's fine and they were the ones who 14 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:18,359 were the victors of all of this. And I'll tell 15 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,079 you And then we got into the debate about see 16 00:01:22,079 --> 00:01:26,719 today's Thursday. So the bombing was Saturday night. I forget 17 00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:29,239 it was Monday or Tuesday. And we started getting reports, 18 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,879 primarily from CNN and the New York Times that guess what, 19 00:01:34,719 --> 00:01:39,239 nothing happened. Everything's still fine. All the sentrifusions are there, 20 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:46,200 the enriched uranium. Nothing happened, and that came. There's a 21 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,400 young woman who is a reporter for CNN. Her name 22 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:56,040 is Natasha Bertrand and this lady, I wonder how she 23 00:01:56,319 --> 00:02:03,079 ever got her job at CNN because she was one 24 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,760 of the well, she's the one who picked up this 25 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:15,240 preliminary what do they call it? Preliminary and not well received. Basically, 26 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,840 it wasn't that credible with the first reports after the 27 00:02:18,879 --> 00:02:22,520 bombing about what was left, and that's where she said, 28 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,759 it looks like nothing happened. Her name is Natasha Bertrun. 29 00:02:25,879 --> 00:02:29,599 She's also the one who was the one who broke 30 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,919 the story about the Steel dossier and how Donald Trump 31 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,080 and Russia, Russia, Russia, and that turned out to be 32 00:02:38,159 --> 00:02:41,520 completely false. And then on top of that, she also 33 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:47,360 was the one who had the fifty one intelligence officers 34 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,000 who swore up and down that the Hunter Biden light 35 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:57,080 laptop was definitely work of the Russians. Absolutely. And so 36 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,719 this young lady has just been abed not a little 37 00:03:00,719 --> 00:03:04,080 bit wrong. She's been one hundred and eighty degrees wrong 38 00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:08,520 on the on the Steele dossier, the Hunter laptop, and 39 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,000 now she comes out with the preliminary I forget the 40 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,120 term they're using, but some term about it wasn't really 41 00:03:15,199 --> 00:03:18,639 relied upon it. It was the first blink at what happened. 42 00:03:19,159 --> 00:03:23,759 And so I'm listen. I was right there, not with her, 43 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,520 but I was right there with this too early, it's 44 00:03:27,599 --> 00:03:30,360 too early to tell what happened. I mean, we were 45 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,319 trying to blow up things a couple hundred feet below 46 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,199 a mountain, not just there, but other places too, And 47 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,960 it's fascinating to me. I don't want to be a 48 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,439 raw raw you know, guy that waves the flag no 49 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:51,000 matter what. I love my country, I'm patriotic, but I 50 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:55,719 also don't believe a lot of what I hear from anybody, 51 00:03:56,639 --> 00:04:01,879 especially the government. So I'm willing to wait. And that's 52 00:04:01,919 --> 00:04:06,120 where the Chairman of the Joint Chief's Staff he came 53 00:04:06,159 --> 00:04:09,319 out and basically said, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. 54 00:04:10,439 --> 00:04:13,439 And so I'm thinking, we don't know yet, we don't 55 00:04:13,479 --> 00:04:15,360 know what the damage was. The only way to really 56 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,360 have the knowledge of the damage is to have somebody 57 00:04:18,639 --> 00:04:23,439 go to the sites and stand there and look drill 58 00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:26,120 down to see what's going on. And we will probably 59 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:32,959 find out more information, probably from the Mossad Disraeli undercover 60 00:04:33,079 --> 00:04:37,920 guys that are have infiltrated into the Iranian government. They'll 61 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:41,959 find out what all this was about. So today there 62 00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:45,600 was a news conference this morning and it was the 63 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,839 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs along with the Secretary of 64 00:04:48,879 --> 00:04:54,199 Defense Pete Hegseth and Haig Seth Gosh. I know Pete, 65 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:59,480 he's very will he's a politician, he's a political appointee, 66 00:04:59,519 --> 00:05:02,480 and so he he will probably do what you would 67 00:05:02,519 --> 00:05:05,480 expect him to do. He did basically marched the line 68 00:05:05,519 --> 00:05:08,959 about how this was wildly successful. The guy that I 69 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:13,240 liked to hear was the Chairman of the Joint chief 70 00:05:13,319 --> 00:05:16,079 the four star general. I think he's got a lot 71 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,240 of credibility, and he came out and basically laid out 72 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:25,160 a lot of what would otherwise be classified information about 73 00:05:25,199 --> 00:05:29,439 exactly what it was that happened. And the results looked 74 00:05:29,639 --> 00:05:33,199 very promising. That they're not set back a couple of 75 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:37,160 weeks or a couple of months, they're set back many years. 76 00:05:37,639 --> 00:05:42,240 And I'm sure that the Iranian leadership is probably they're 77 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,959 they're ideologues. They're probably working over time on Okay, we've 78 00:05:47,079 --> 00:05:49,800 really been hit hard. What are we going to do 79 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,839 to rebuild ourselves. They're going to try. So this as 80 00:05:53,879 --> 00:05:58,000 far as that process goes of the theocracy that's leading 81 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,879 the Iranian government, I think that still has to be 82 00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:04,839 that bridge. It still needs to be crossed, not right away, 83 00:06:04,879 --> 00:06:08,079 but certainly sometime in the future. So we've got that 84 00:06:08,199 --> 00:06:12,040 to go over. We've got the economy, number numbers, a 85 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,279 number of numbers, yes about the economy coming out today 86 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,360 is Thursday, So we got jobs, and we've got GDP, 87 00:06:19,639 --> 00:06:21,279 and we've got a bunch of different things to share 88 00:06:21,319 --> 00:06:26,639 with you. Supreme Court made a decision today out of 89 00:06:26,639 --> 00:06:32,040 South Carolina that affects planned parenthood. Tomorrow is the last 90 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,160 day of the session for the Supreme Court, so we're 91 00:06:35,199 --> 00:06:42,279 expecting a number of cases tomorrow. The buzz about the 92 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:48,199 socialist Democrat who is won the New York City Mayor's 93 00:06:48,199 --> 00:06:55,439 Democrat primary is front and center, so Zoran Man Danny 94 00:06:56,319 --> 00:06:59,040 and so the people are still fussing about all of that. 95 00:06:59,079 --> 00:07:01,639 We got a lot to cover. The let's start. We've 96 00:07:01,639 --> 00:07:05,120 started with him a lot because I find him very credible, 97 00:07:05,519 --> 00:07:08,959 and that is General Jack Keen and his reaction to 98 00:07:09,079 --> 00:07:13,000 basically what he thought of the news conference at the 99 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:14,279 Pentagon This morning. 100 00:07:16,079 --> 00:07:18,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly. But that's one of the most remarkable DoD 101 00:07:18,759 --> 00:07:22,120 briefings I've ever observed in the many years of observing them. 102 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,319 To be quite frank about it, the Secretary of Defense 103 00:07:25,399 --> 00:07:31,319 obviously very frustrated and passionate about the misrepresentation of the 104 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:37,519 results of that operation and certainly felt compelled to adjudicate 105 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,000 that and put the facts in front of the American people. 106 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,480 I haven't seen anything quite like that since Don Rumsfeld 107 00:07:45,879 --> 00:07:48,160 was Secretary of Defense, and at times he would take 108 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,560 an issue with the media. We were at war then 109 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,199 and the issues were high, and stakes were high, certainly, 110 00:07:55,759 --> 00:07:59,959 and then any misrepresentation would certainly of cause use frustrat 111 00:08:00,399 --> 00:08:03,680 like it like it did here. But the Chairman's brief 112 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,720 and I've never seen quite like that, uh a briefer 113 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,560 into it. I've given briefings myself, and UH, I've watched 114 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:15,000 the succeeding chairman UH do briefings through the years. And 115 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,920 he did something that's really quite unusual and I and 116 00:08:17,959 --> 00:08:19,800 I really commend him for it. I mean, he brought 117 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,920 this UH operation alive in terms of the people. He 118 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:28,360 gave it life and UH and and that that personal knowledge, 119 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,279 he went out and gathered and brought that home to 120 00:08:31,319 --> 00:08:35,039 the American people was something I think we'll all remember 121 00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:38,200 and and and then a couple of the facts in 122 00:08:38,279 --> 00:08:42,919 here are just astounding. It reminded me of the CIA 123 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,840 operatives who were on the target for more than a 124 00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:48,720 decade to try to get usam bin laden. And he 125 00:08:48,879 --> 00:08:53,399 identifies an Intel organization that we all know is a 126 00:08:53,519 --> 00:08:57,600 very uh top secret organization that does this kind of 127 00:08:57,639 --> 00:09:00,960 work day in and day out in the shadows, away 128 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,240 from anybody spotlight, even in the Pentagon, much less the 129 00:09:04,279 --> 00:09:07,919 American people. And here we had a few people assembled there, 130 00:09:07,919 --> 00:09:11,559 one in charge who's been on this target for fifteen years, 131 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,600 and as a result of their conclusions, we had to 132 00:09:15,639 --> 00:09:19,720 develop a special bomb to deal with this target. That 133 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,639 is remarkable. We haven't done anything quite like that, as 134 00:09:23,639 --> 00:09:27,159 we all know, since the atomic bombs would drop on 135 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:32,039 Japan in World War Two. That is remarkable what took 136 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,440 place here. And we went out and tested that technology 137 00:09:35,519 --> 00:09:39,919 and didn't put it in the hands of our combat 138 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:44,440 fighters and bombers until we actually had proven it. And 139 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,200 I think then the details provided in terms of what 140 00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:51,120 actually took place at the site, how can you not 141 00:09:51,279 --> 00:09:54,480 watch that and understand what the Chairman was saying and 142 00:09:54,519 --> 00:09:57,759 not come to the conclusion that everyone is now coming 143 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:02,159 to that this program is set back many years and 144 00:10:02,279 --> 00:10:06,559 it'll take a long time for them to recover and rebuild. 145 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 1: It. 146 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 2: Hats off to what we just witnessed here in terms 147 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:16,519 of this operation and details supporting it. It's sort of 148 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,440 a backup number six that was there as well in 149 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,279 case it was any failure. So I mean they built 150 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,600 success into this operation. You know, whenever a military's plan 151 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,480 and operation, one of the things that we do very 152 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,080 well is we go through what if, what if, what if, 153 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,320 and we try to cover the bases on all the 154 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,799 things that could happen that could result in in mission failure. 155 00:10:41,039 --> 00:10:45,200 And that certainly has been built into this operation, you know, 156 00:10:45,279 --> 00:10:49,480 with twelve mops on one site and two on the 157 00:10:49,519 --> 00:10:53,720 other site. And we also have to credit the Israelis 158 00:10:54,279 --> 00:10:57,639 in terms of a comprehensive air campaign that they they 159 00:10:57,639 --> 00:11:00,679 were running to the ten eleven days prior to this 160 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,399 mission being run that hit all twelve Nucleo sites. They 161 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:09,240 took down the remaining seventy air defense batteries in the 162 00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:13,200 first twenty four hours, an astounding accomplishment and that's kind 163 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,519 of out of the playbook of the United States. We 164 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,879 always take their defense down first. We don't bring anything 165 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,159 into the country until we have done that job as 166 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,639 long as it takes. And they did a remarkable job 167 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,679 in doing that. And the Israelis and the United States 168 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,559 have set this program back, and I think we got 169 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,919 to remind ourselves this regime and who they are has 170 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,679 not changed. They are absolutely committed to having a nuclear program. 171 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,639 Despite what the success we've had here. I expect them 172 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,559 to be thinking about how are they going to recover 173 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,200 and how are they going to rebuild? And we have 174 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:56,240 to maintain our vigilance here, our intel services, the Israelis, ourselves, 175 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:01,120 and if they start to recover it, then Israeli, supported 176 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,440 by the United States if necessary, should reattack and take 177 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,759 it down. We don't let them get to a point 178 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,000 where they really have a significant capability and they just 179 00:12:10,039 --> 00:12:13,240 weeks away from having a weapon no more. We cannot 180 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,639 let that happen. There's two sides to this, you know. One, 181 00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:22,480 our adversaries are all watching this, and I think this operation, 182 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,480 the President's decisions, the boldness of it, and the commitment 183 00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:31,519 and determination to end this program once and for all 184 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,039 that was reflected in that decision. After all, he had 185 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:41,679 time and time again had never equivocated no nuclear weapons period. 186 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,559 No president said it as much, and no president said 187 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,240 it with as much determination, and then he delivers. I 188 00:12:49,279 --> 00:12:53,320 think part of the briefing also is for our adversaries 189 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:57,200 to see it and give them some sense of our capabilities. 190 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,360 We have achieved the level of deterrence now as a 191 00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:03,360 result of this with Russia and China and North Korea, 192 00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:08,360 and look at Russia and China could have helped Iran 193 00:13:08,919 --> 00:13:13,480 in their most desperate moment here. Once the Israeli's first attack, 194 00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:18,080 nothing came to a system, not even their proxies came 195 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,639 to a system. And they funded Hesbala in particular for 196 00:13:21,799 --> 00:13:26,759 principal reason to defend defend Iran against Israel. They are 197 00:13:26,799 --> 00:13:29,159 isolated in a way that they have never been and 198 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,559 we have a huge opportunity here to create change. And 199 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,440 I hope when we go in through these negotiations we 200 00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:39,000 put on the table things that are really tough. At 201 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,200 independent inspectors in the country looking at all sites and 202 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,879 what's not dismantled or destroyed, then dismantle it and then 203 00:13:47,919 --> 00:13:50,759 put on the table we're going to talk about your 204 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,159 change of behavior. We're not giving you free trade, we're 205 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,919 not giving you sanctioned relief until you commit you're not 206 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,759 going to support your proxies anymore, exactly going to support 207 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,279 terrorism anymore. You're going to recognize the state of Israel. 208 00:14:04,799 --> 00:14:08,399 And if you commit to these, then we'll relieve the 209 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,919 sanctions and will open up trade with you so that 210 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,120 you can become a legitimate country in this region. But 211 00:14:15,159 --> 00:14:17,519 if you're not going to commit to that, then we're 212 00:14:17,519 --> 00:14:20,279 going to continue on this path that we have and 213 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,240 you're going to continue to be isolated. You continue your 214 00:14:23,279 --> 00:14:26,000 economy is going to continue to be in the tank, 215 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,399 and we're going to continue to contain your ambitions against 216 00:14:30,399 --> 00:14:34,200 what the region needs, which is peace and stability. We 217 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,679 have a huge opportunity for a paradigm shift. 218 00:14:36,759 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 1: So General Keen is very impressed. In fact, he was 219 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,879 very very impressed about the news conference that was held 220 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,720 at the Pentagon this morning. One of the other people 221 00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:50,399 that works in all of national security issues, he's done 222 00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:53,120 it for years. He's worked for Democrats and for Republicans, 223 00:14:53,159 --> 00:14:57,799 Bretton McGirk, and he too seems like he now is 224 00:14:57,919 --> 00:15:00,919 convinced that the dam how many said was done to 225 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,600 Iran's nuclear program was severe. Here's Brett McGirk. 226 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kate, I think if we can step back from 227 00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:10,200 the kind of Washington and the partisan framing of it, 228 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:15,000 which is always something about these things unfortunately. But I 229 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:19,080 thought Dan's briefing, A General Kaine's briefing was really important 230 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,240 and just worth studying because he went through a lot 231 00:15:22,279 --> 00:15:26,080 of information that until now would have been classified, and 232 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:30,120 that this operation, this strike plan into Iran was developed, 233 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,559 it was really conceived and resource and developed. In the 234 00:15:32,559 --> 00:15:36,559 Obama administration, it was refined and the Trump administration, it 235 00:15:36,679 --> 00:15:39,120 was refined quite a bit in the Biden administration. For 236 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,600 what we handed over to President Trump, and what we 237 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,440 now know from that briefing first time you know it 238 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,159 is that as it was designed, as these massive ordinance 239 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:53,960 penetrators with significant computer software engineering went directly down those 240 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,840 three minilated shafts specifically as designed, and until you actually 241 00:15:57,879 --> 00:15:59,600 do it, you never know if it's going to work. 242 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,639 It worked, it seems have worked flawlessly. That is very 243 00:16:02,639 --> 00:16:05,639 important information. He also point out some things we take 244 00:16:05,679 --> 00:16:08,720 for granted. You know, a Patriot interceptor is traveling at 245 00:16:08,759 --> 00:16:11,919 three thousand miles an hour about MAK four to hit 246 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,080 a ballistic missile, wabbling out about six thousand miles an 247 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,240 hour Mac eight. This is really difficult. We take for 248 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,440 granted how this stuff all works. I thought that was 249 00:16:20,519 --> 00:16:21,519 very important way out. 250 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,559 Speaker 4: So as I as I come out of this briefing, 251 00:16:23,679 --> 00:16:27,279 I now know BDA level two. As I mentioned level one, 252 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,080 first twenty four hours looking at imagery level two, did 253 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,440 the ordinance work? Did everything go as we had wanted? 254 00:16:33,679 --> 00:16:36,279 The answer now is yes. And we're now in the 255 00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:40,720 phase of level three, collecting all sources of information and 256 00:16:40,759 --> 00:16:43,960 then putting that together with nuclear experts to determine if 257 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,879 they have these pieces and parts here, could they reconstitute them, 258 00:16:47,159 --> 00:16:49,799 with some political analysts to say would the Iranians do that? 259 00:16:49,879 --> 00:16:52,840 What would be the restraints To then have a comprehensive 260 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,159 assessment of where we are with the objective theme, Aaron 261 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,279 can never have a nuclear weapon, and its enrichment program 262 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,799 has to be completely destroyed. I think from what I've 263 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,480 seen the twenty thousand centrifuges you had about seventeen thousand, 264 00:17:06,559 --> 00:17:09,200 and the tons about three thousand and four too, they. 265 00:17:09,039 --> 00:17:12,599 Speaker 3: Are all completely destroyed. I am very confident those centrifuges 266 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:17,160 are gone. The Israelis destroyed the centrifuge manufacturing production facilities 267 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,880 that we know of Isfahan, which is the conversion facility, 268 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,519 key part of the fuel site, will also appears have 269 00:17:23,519 --> 00:17:25,400 been destroyed. So if you add it up from what 270 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:30,119 we're seeing, massive cadystrophic setback for Ron's program, the term 271 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:34,240 of art obliterated, destroyed. I kind of step out of that. 272 00:17:34,759 --> 00:17:37,839 This is an analytical process. It's important for the professionals 273 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,039 now in the intelligence community be able to do their 274 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:43,559 work without political sure and come out with their assessments 275 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,799 and we'll know soon enough. There's a lot of work 276 00:17:45,799 --> 00:17:49,799 going on here from US intelligence agencies, from Masade and 277 00:17:49,799 --> 00:17:52,880 the Israelis, from other partners. But I thought that briefing 278 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,400 was important. We now know that operation that was developed 279 00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:02,119 over multiple administrations worked exactly as was designed. So I 280 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:05,480 didn't know that. I couldn't have confirmed that twenty four 281 00:18:05,519 --> 00:18:08,519 hours ago. I now it was three ventilators. They went 282 00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:12,160 down there and it worked. That's new, and that means 283 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:17,000 probably Foidah is rendered inoperable for the foreseeable future, probably forever. 284 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,519 Speaker 1: So there you have it. You have a general retired general, 285 00:18:20,559 --> 00:18:25,480 and you have national security analyst who is very well 286 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,319 schooled on all of us, has been for years under 287 00:18:28,559 --> 00:18:33,039 both kinds of administrations, and he says it's done. Fordah 288 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,160 is done in as far as the nuclear program for 289 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:40,599 Iran for the foreseeable future, if not forever, so the idea. 290 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:45,839 Both McGirk and General Keenan were fascinated by the fact 291 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,759 that they had these air vents that went all the 292 00:18:48,759 --> 00:18:51,079 way down to the bottom and we were able to 293 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:56,119 put multiple bombs down the air vents to go all 294 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,799 the way down to where the floor of the operation 295 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,000 FIDO and the rest of them. Israeli took out a 296 00:19:04,039 --> 00:19:08,359 lot of other facilities, So overall, I think it's pretty 297 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:13,160 clear that this was a major success, despite the early 298 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:18,200 misinformation and the leaking of the fact that the defense 299 00:19:18,799 --> 00:19:23,319 in the DIA Defence Intelligence Agency said it was preliminary 300 00:19:23,759 --> 00:19:26,480 and could not be relied upon. But the media forgot 301 00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:29,319 to tell you that, and they shouldn't have been, well 302 00:19:29,559 --> 00:19:33,519 they it shouldn't have been leaked in the first place, 303 00:19:33,559 --> 00:19:37,480 that's a defense document. So in bottom line is it 304 00:19:37,519 --> 00:19:44,160 looks like it was a successful, very successful mission. One 305 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,279 more person to listen to about this Jennifer Griffin. I 306 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,279 know Jennifer. She has worked at the Pentagon as a 307 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:56,960 reporter for decades. She knows her stuff. She's worked overseas, 308 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,960 she's worked behind the scenes, and this was her impression 309 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,359 of what happened at the news conference today. 310 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 5: Well, that was certainly the reason for the Defense Secretary 311 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,119 to come out quite so emotionally against the press and 312 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,799 the leak of that Defense intelligence report. But what was 313 00:20:14,839 --> 00:20:18,279 really fascinating was listening to General Kin, the chairman of 314 00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:20,720 the Joint Chiefs, describe a few things that we did 315 00:20:20,759 --> 00:20:24,319 not have the details of to hear him describe how 316 00:20:24,559 --> 00:20:27,599 forty four young soldiers between the age of twenty one 317 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:32,759 and twenty eight, with two Patriot missile batteries defended the 318 00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:36,920 largest US military base in the Middle East in cutter 319 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,799 At Alu did They had two minutes, less than two 320 00:20:39,799 --> 00:20:42,480 minutes to make a decision, and they shot down all 321 00:20:42,559 --> 00:20:46,599 fourteen of the incoming ballistic missiles and basically protected that base. 322 00:20:46,839 --> 00:20:51,240 When he described how one of those soldiers was simply 323 00:20:51,279 --> 00:20:53,160 twenty one years old and had only been in the 324 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,359 military for two years, it really does make your heart stop. 325 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,200 In terms of the amount of weaponry that was. 326 00:20:59,160 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 4: Fired by Iran. 327 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,279 Speaker 5: Even though they had an indication it was coming, it 328 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,920 still was down to those soldiers. The other thing that 329 00:21:05,039 --> 00:21:07,880 was described, which we described on Saturday night, and we 330 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,240 had very good information about what the target set was 331 00:21:11,279 --> 00:21:14,400 at four Doh. There were two air shafts that they 332 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,440 had been watching since they were the first one appeared 333 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,839 on satellite imagery in two thousand and eight and the 334 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:25,519 first in the days before the US strikes. They could 335 00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:28,039 see from the air that Iran had tried to cover 336 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,119 those air shafts with concrete, so they needed that first 337 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,480 bunker buster bomb to break through that concrete blow it off, 338 00:21:36,519 --> 00:21:39,400 if you will. And then the number two, three, four, 339 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:44,200 and five bunker busters went down each of those shafts. 340 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,079 That's where it wasn't the entrances to four Doah that 341 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,559 they bombed, it was down the shafts. And they had 342 00:21:49,599 --> 00:21:52,000 timed the fuses so that they could go deeper and 343 00:21:52,039 --> 00:21:56,519 deeper and make sure that they blew up everything underground 344 00:21:56,559 --> 00:22:00,519 and destroyed the centrifuges that are very delicate, and so 345 00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:05,400 the blast, the blast underground, that shaking would have thrown 346 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,240 those centrifuses off. When he described how the follow on fighters, 347 00:22:09,279 --> 00:22:13,640 the ones who escorted the F twenty twos that escorted 348 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:18,079 those B twos, how those pilots described was perfectly dark 349 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,440 and then it was completely almost like daylight. The blast 350 00:22:21,559 --> 00:22:22,160 was that big. 351 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: It just goes to show you that the early reports 352 00:22:24,839 --> 00:22:27,960 about the fact that nothing really happened, There wasn't any damage. 353 00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:32,640 The Iranians still have their centrifuges and their enriched uranium, 354 00:22:32,759 --> 00:22:39,200 and this report today with specifics about how they went 355 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,640 about it and the results, shows that the early reports 356 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:47,279 were just flat wrong. Especially Yeah, CNN and the New 357 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:52,079 York Times got it very wrong again. And with that 358 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,759 that doesn't mean that all the reporting is in. This 359 00:22:54,839 --> 00:22:58,079 is still very early, so we will learn more as 360 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,400 time goes on, but I think a lot of it 361 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,279 is going to be very classified. And as far as 362 00:23:04,759 --> 00:23:08,480 the message that was sent to the world, not only 363 00:23:08,599 --> 00:23:13,200 to Iran, but China and Russia were watching this, and 364 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,920 all of our adversaries around the world were watching this. 365 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,319 And I know that there's a lot of maga people 366 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,720 that are mad at Donald Trump because he said no 367 00:23:20,799 --> 00:23:23,279 more wars, No more wars. This is a way to 368 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:27,039 stop war. This was absolutely a way to stop it. 369 00:23:27,079 --> 00:23:30,119 But it also shows that we are not afraid to 370 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:35,480 use strength to bring about peace, and that's the message 371 00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:38,400 I get out of this. If I was an adversarial country, 372 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,799 I would say, I don't mess with don't mess with 373 00:23:40,839 --> 00:23:43,839 Donald Trump, don't mess with the United States. There are 374 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,599 still those though, on the other side of the aisle. 375 00:23:47,079 --> 00:23:51,359 Chris Murphy always seemed like an okay kind of senator. 376 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,839 He's from Connecticut, seemed like the guy next door. But 377 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:59,039 he's obviously itching to want to run for president, and 378 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,880 so he's looking rather silly. I think he was interviewed 379 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:08,039 earlier today and he was adamant that we don't know 380 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:12,440 anything yet, but insisted that it did not work and 381 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,519 it wasn't worth it to spend the money to go 382 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,279 and do this Iranian project that the military took on 383 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,640 with Israel. So he's insisting it did not work, and 384 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,240 then this news conference comes out today. He looks like 385 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,160 he's got a little bit of mud on his face 386 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:34,039 and that it wasn't worth it. I suppose some of 387 00:24:34,079 --> 00:24:38,599 you think it wasn't, but I definitely think this was 388 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,039 monumental as far as for forty years, the number one 389 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,279 sponsor of terrorists in the world, looks like they are, 390 00:24:46,519 --> 00:24:50,119 if not totally, they're pretty much out of business. Certainly 391 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,440 have lost their muscle. But for Chris Murphy, adamant that 392 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,839 it did not work. He swears it did not work, 393 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,759 but he says that we don't know yet, So how 394 00:25:02,799 --> 00:25:06,119 can you insist it did not work if you don't know. Anyway, 395 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,519 I don't think he has a future in his efforts 396 00:25:09,559 --> 00:25:13,000 to try to become president. So General Cain and Pete 397 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:18,759 haig Seth joint news conference this morning, everything seemed to 398 00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:20,880 work his planned and the fact that they've found these 399 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,200 ventilation shifts, and as Jennifer was saying that they spotted 400 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,440 these ventilation shafts in two thousand and eight, they've been 401 00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:35,880 watching them ever since. Congratulations to the military all these years. 402 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,880 There's a number of people that worked on this project 403 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,359 that have retired many years ago. And then of course 404 00:25:42,079 --> 00:25:44,960 Chris Murphy actually sounds like he's a friend of the 405 00:25:45,039 --> 00:25:48,319 Ayahtola because the Iyatola came out today and said they 406 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,680 absolutely crushed Israel. Now, obviously he's saying that to the 407 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,680 people of Iran. I'm not sure if they believe it. 408 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:01,519 They're smart people. Time will tell you want to talk 409 00:26:01,559 --> 00:26:03,680 about the New York City mayor's race. I know it's 410 00:26:03,799 --> 00:26:06,440 very local, and I don't like to do New York 411 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,160 centric news, but this is an earthquake in its own 412 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:18,920 way where this guy Xandora, Ma'm Donnie, the avowed socialist, 413 00:26:20,079 --> 00:26:22,640 he's they're now accusing him of being anti Semitic. So 414 00:26:23,039 --> 00:26:27,880 Mayor Eric Adams unveiled his official campaign starting today. The 415 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,119 election is in November, and it's Eric Adams, the current mayor, 416 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,039 who is not well liked, has been indicted on all 417 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,599 kinds of corruption charges, and then those indictments went away 418 00:26:40,079 --> 00:26:44,240 because he supported the Trump administration bringing in getting rid 419 00:26:44,279 --> 00:26:47,640 of the illegals that are in New York City. And 420 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,359 so the accusation against Mandami is a Mandanni I'm not 421 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,160 even pronouncing his name right yet, that he's an anti Semi, 422 00:26:57,799 --> 00:27:01,319 which in New York the Jewish population is significant. So that's, 423 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,480 you know, watched for more of that. Carl Rove was 424 00:27:05,519 --> 00:27:09,519 asked all about the impact of this, not only in 425 00:27:09,599 --> 00:27:14,480 New York but just in politics across the country in general. Yeah, 426 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:18,079 well they weren't buying the stick, but yes, see what 427 00:27:18,599 --> 00:27:21,720 he got was a coalition of people who are finding 428 00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:24,000 it hard to live in an expensive town like New 429 00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:26,680 York City, and he's offering him lots of free things. 430 00:27:26,839 --> 00:27:29,799 He's going to freeze rent. Well, we know what happens. 431 00:27:29,839 --> 00:27:33,759 Then landlords can't keep up. They can't put money in 432 00:27:33,799 --> 00:27:37,559 to refurbishing and keeping up their units because they're limited 433 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,559 and how much they can charge they can't recover the 434 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:46,240 inflation cost, so housing declines. He's got city run grocery stores. 435 00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:46,720 I loved him. 436 00:27:46,759 --> 00:27:48,799 Speaker 6: He went on air and said, look at him, they're 437 00:27:48,799 --> 00:27:50,200 going to be cheaper because they're not going. 438 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:50,839 Speaker 1: To pay rent. 439 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,079 Speaker 6: Well, who's going to pay the rent? Taxpayers are? He's 440 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,200 gonna have free buses, he's gonna have free universal childcare. 441 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,960 He's going to get some savings. He's going to cancel 442 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:04,240 police overtime and canceled the protest response units of the 443 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,279 police department. But you know, and put he put out 444 00:28:07,319 --> 00:28:11,400 seventy billion dollars for what he calls affordable housing. Well, 445 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,119 who's going to pay for that affordable housing? He says, 446 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,119 I'm going to tax millionaires. Well, you guess what, they're 447 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,119 three hundred and fifty thousand millionaires in New York City. 448 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,000 You know they're going to pay seventy billion dollars for housing. 449 00:28:26,039 --> 00:28:28,119 They're going to pick up the tab for the free 450 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,240 the free bus rides. That's eight billion dollars in fares 451 00:28:32,279 --> 00:28:35,000 to the Metropolitan Transit Authority each year. You know, they 452 00:28:35,039 --> 00:28:36,960 get to move, they get a vote, they can decide 453 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,519 I'm staying in the city or on my leaving. And 454 00:28:40,599 --> 00:28:43,039 low income voter said, you know what, we're not dumb 455 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:44,839 enough to think that this is all going to be 456 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,640 cost free. There aren't enough rich people to pay all 457 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:50,960 of the thing promises that he's making. And I think 458 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,319 there was a lot of common sense in that. The 459 00:28:53,359 --> 00:28:57,640 head of the Manhattan Institute, Aliam says Selim said said 460 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,279 he is a TikTok Jacobin, which I thought was a 461 00:29:00,279 --> 00:29:03,759 great phrase. Look, he ran a great campaign, no if 462 00:29:03,799 --> 00:29:06,319 sands or butts about it, and he was authentic, he 463 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,440 was fresh, he was new, and his principal opponent was 464 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,559 a guy that a lot of people didn't like, namely 465 00:29:12,599 --> 00:29:16,119 the guy who was forced out as governor for harassing 466 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,200 what was it like, fifty women. So you know, if 467 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,279 you're going to run a great campaign, it always helps 468 00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:24,400 to have a really not very good opponent, and he 469 00:29:24,519 --> 00:29:28,119 certainly got that in Andrew Cuomo. Well, look when the 470 00:29:28,119 --> 00:29:30,200 guy goes out and says, I believe that we ought 471 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,720 to globalize the Inda Fada. What was the end of fada? 472 00:29:32,799 --> 00:29:36,200 It was an armed uprising in which twelve hundred Israeli 473 00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:38,920 Jews were killed. And this guy doesn't seem to have 474 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,480 any problem with endorsing armed uprising. And he says, well, 475 00:29:43,519 --> 00:29:45,799 the quote the role of the mayor is not to 476 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,480 police language. Yes, it is the responsibility of every leader 477 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:53,000 to set a tone. And his tone, frankly, is anti Semitic, 478 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,519 anti Jewish, A founder of when he was in college, 479 00:29:56,559 --> 00:30:00,240 not that long ago of Students for Justice and Palace Time, 480 00:30:00,279 --> 00:30:04,079 the most radical of the anti Israeli groups in college campuses. 481 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 1: So can Eric Adams, the current incumbent mayor. Can he 482 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:09,279 win in November? 483 00:30:09,799 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 6: He can, but it's gonna you know, you're going to 484 00:30:11,519 --> 00:30:13,720 have at least a you know, three person race with 485 00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:16,599 the Republican candidate and therein the votes get split up. 486 00:30:17,279 --> 00:30:20,119 You know, he could win, but again he's a little 487 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,240 bit of a damaged product as well. Hasn't had the 488 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,599 most exemplary record as mayor. But on the other hand, 489 00:30:25,599 --> 00:30:27,880 he ain't a socialist, and I think there's going to 490 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,319 be a lot of concern in the business community and 491 00:30:30,359 --> 00:30:34,240 among small business people that Mom Donnie could be a 492 00:30:34,279 --> 00:30:35,680 real disaster for the city. 493 00:30:35,799 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 1: So the Supreme Court session ends tomorrow, but they came 494 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,759 out with a decision today. It was a case ruling 495 00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:48,240 for South Carolina in an effort to defund Planned Parenthood. 496 00:30:49,039 --> 00:30:53,640 What they concluded was that individual Medicaid patients cannot sue 497 00:30:54,039 --> 00:30:58,240 to enforce their right to pick whatever medical provider they want. 498 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:03,920 The court ruled six to three along conservative versus liberal lines. 499 00:31:05,599 --> 00:31:10,400 Danil Gorsuch wrote the opinion. But basically this is being 500 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:15,359 billed as an abortion story, and yes, Planned Parenthood does 501 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,640 a lot of abortions, but this is I think even 502 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,559 more fundamental, which is Medicaid is a program paid for 503 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,279 paid for by it's split a state and federal money. 504 00:31:26,359 --> 00:31:31,039 It's taxpayer money, and if you're on Medicaid, generally it's free. 505 00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:34,799 There are some co pays, but very few, and so 506 00:31:34,839 --> 00:31:39,240 it's free. And Medicaid is the one that gets to 507 00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:42,359 find the doctors that will even see you and then 508 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,920 shippered you to those doctors in the hospitals. But this 509 00:31:47,039 --> 00:31:50,680 case was about a woman who demanded that she wanted 510 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,079 to go to Planned Parenthood and she didn't get her way, 511 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,839 and so she's sued the state of South Carolina. Since 512 00:31:57,839 --> 00:32:00,279 the court's ruled in favor of South Carolina, you can 513 00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:02,640 bet there are a bunch of other states that are 514 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,039 chomping at the bit to do the same thing. Here's 515 00:32:05,119 --> 00:32:07,359 Jonathan Turley with his analysis. 516 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 7: Well, Planned Parenthood really got his clock clean today because 517 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,359 you're talking about an organization that drives over thirty percent 518 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:22,759 of its revenue from government sources, and this stat is saying, look, 519 00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:27,279 you're providing abortion services as well as other services, and 520 00:32:27,319 --> 00:32:30,079 that makes you ineligible in our state. And what the 521 00:32:30,119 --> 00:32:32,720 court said is they can do that. And so if 522 00:32:32,839 --> 00:32:35,559 South Carolina could do it, you can bet other states 523 00:32:35,599 --> 00:32:37,160 are going to go forward and they're going to do 524 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,519 it too. I think that that's what most of us 525 00:32:40,599 --> 00:32:43,799 expected from the oral argument. But what the Court was 526 00:32:43,799 --> 00:32:47,359 saying is that there's no footing here, no clear basis 527 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,039 upon which to bring that action, and it's not going 528 00:32:50,079 --> 00:32:54,079 to create one. And this, again is a more fluid 529 00:32:54,119 --> 00:32:58,039 approach to how these laws are interpreted by Justice Jackson 530 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,200 and the majority. 531 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 1: You just won't do that. Tomorrow's the final session of 532 00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,039 the Supreme Court. And again the one people are watching 533 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,319 is the birthrights citizenship. But it's not so much about 534 00:33:08,359 --> 00:33:11,640 the birthrights citizenship, whether they'll dodge that or not. But 535 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,680 the question is coming out of that case is the 536 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:21,400 story or the question about federal judges issuing nationwide injunctions? 537 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,359 Can they issue an injunction that affects the entire state 538 00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:28,920 or just the area that they are responsible for us 539 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,440 a federal judge. So that's really the big key case 540 00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:36,160 that will be coming out tomorrow. And this morning we 541 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,039 got our Thursday Morning numbers and a few others. It's 542 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,400 every Thursday we get jobs numbers and first time jobs 543 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,279 claims two hundred and thirty six thousand. That was actually 544 00:33:49,319 --> 00:33:53,640 down ten thousand from the previous week. Continuing claims up 545 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,039 thirty seven thousand, but a million nine seventy four So 546 00:33:57,079 --> 00:34:01,279 it's staying both of those numbers staying in the neighborhood 547 00:34:01,279 --> 00:34:03,319 that we have seen now for quite a few months. 548 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:09,239 Durable good orders blew the socks off today. Durable good 549 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:14,239 orders last month were up sixteen point four percent. It 550 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,360 was expected to be up seven it was up sixteen 551 00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:21,000 point four. One of the things about durable goods. These 552 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,920 are things that are supposed to last three years or more. 553 00:34:23,039 --> 00:34:26,800 Usually I think about washers and dryers, refrigerators and things 554 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:31,400 like that, but it also includes airplanes. And if you 555 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,320 take airplanes out of the durable good orders, it was 556 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,960 the durable good orders were up just one half of 557 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,760 one percent, which makes it very clear that the reason 558 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,679 for the big increase in durable good orders was because 559 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:47,519 of a six because of the airplane orders. That two 560 00:34:47,559 --> 00:34:49,920 things won the Paris Air Show, which is one of 561 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,800 the biggies and annually. And also remember when President Trump 562 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,079 was in the Middle East, he was getting those Middle 563 00:34:57,119 --> 00:35:01,440 Eastern countries to sign up for Boeing aircraft, right, so Katar, 564 00:35:01,679 --> 00:35:05,719 United Erab Emirates, somebody else, maybe the Soudiast. Anyway, so 565 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,159 Boeing got a lot of sales last month, and it's 566 00:35:08,199 --> 00:35:13,199 showing up in that particular number. As far as inflation 567 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:18,000 goes Austin Goolsby, who we've relied upon for years to 568 00:35:18,039 --> 00:35:20,760 give us his sense of things, he's now the president 569 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,679 of the Chicago FED. This is his sense of where 570 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:24,599 the economy is. 571 00:35:27,599 --> 00:35:30,039 Speaker 8: Here's the thing about the data on the job market. 572 00:35:30,639 --> 00:35:35,000 It feels to me like we get continuous months that 573 00:35:35,159 --> 00:35:41,000 emphasize we're a pretty steady, stable full employment kind of circumstance. 574 00:35:41,559 --> 00:35:47,960 Middle of last year, when things were getting worse, cooling 575 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:53,599 at a steady pace. You could make the argument that 576 00:35:54,119 --> 00:35:57,480 most of the time, when the unemployment rate rises, let's 577 00:35:57,519 --> 00:36:01,639 say one full percentage point over a year, that's usually 578 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,840 an indicator of something of the business cycle, and it's 579 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,079 gonna get worse. But what we've seen in the last 580 00:36:08,159 --> 00:36:13,079 year is stable full employment, and nothing has changed with 581 00:36:13,199 --> 00:36:16,400 the UI claims or with the broader measures of the 582 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,719 job market in my mind, that have bumped me. 583 00:36:19,679 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 1: Off that view. The big question affection the FED is 584 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,159 the tariffs, and President Trump would like them to drop 585 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,039 interest rates, but they're not going to drop interest rates 586 00:36:29,079 --> 00:36:32,960 because they're worried about the impact of tariffs. So Austin 587 00:36:33,119 --> 00:36:35,719 was asked, what about the tariffs? What do you think 588 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,280 about those that will they ever impact our economy? 589 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,840 Speaker 8: We were doing pretty well, stable full employment, and I 590 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,679 felt inflation coming down in the mid twoes and coming 591 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:50,679 down toward the two percent target, And in a circumstance 592 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:55,159 where that's prevailing, I believe that the rates will go 593 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,239 down a fair bit. More from where they are today. 594 00:36:58,599 --> 00:37:00,599 And you can see that in the dot plot. If 595 00:37:00,599 --> 00:37:02,840 you look at what the members of the committee where 596 00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:06,360 they think the settling point is, there's pretty wide agreement. 597 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,239 It's well below where we are today. The tariffs and 598 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,840 other uncertainties in the economy threw a bunch of dust 599 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,920 in the air. So I do think it's important that 600 00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:20,639 we get clarity a that there's not going to be 601 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,679 an increase in inflation, or B if there is going 602 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,960 to be an increase in inflation, that it's not going 603 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,440 to be a lasting increase in inflation, that it is 604 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:34,440 in fact going to be transitory. Now, like you say, Steve, 605 00:37:34,679 --> 00:37:39,519 the last we've had three but nine months of inflation readings, 606 00:37:39,679 --> 00:37:41,960 and for a month and a half of that we 607 00:37:42,079 --> 00:37:45,800 had the beginnings of tariffs. So if tariffs stay in 608 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,199 their lane, which is to say, important goods are only 609 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:53,159 eleven percent of GDP, So if people don't freak out 610 00:37:53,559 --> 00:37:56,719 and change their behavior, and if we don't get a 611 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,639 lot of retaliation from other countries, and if we don't 612 00:38:00,119 --> 00:38:04,159 jack up the rates on raising the costs of domestic production, 613 00:38:05,599 --> 00:38:10,199 then my hope would be that we don't see the inflation. 614 00:38:10,679 --> 00:38:13,599 But we got to get a few months of clarity 615 00:38:15,199 --> 00:38:19,079 before I'm ready to say that they didn't have an impact. 616 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,480 Speaker 1: And speaking of GDP, we got the third and final 617 00:38:23,559 --> 00:38:27,960 look at the first quarter. That was before Liberation Day, 618 00:38:28,079 --> 00:38:31,719 so they're kind of meaningless. But GDP actually fell. It 619 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:36,199 was down one half of one percent. Personal consumption expenditure 620 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,519 in the first quarter. What do you really buy? That 621 00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:43,400 was up three point seven percent. That was more than 622 00:38:43,599 --> 00:38:45,920 the inflation number that FED is looking for. They're looking 623 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,320 for two inflation on the things that you buy. Prices 624 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,760 were up three point seven percent in the first quarter, 625 00:38:52,159 --> 00:38:54,760 and GDP the growth of the economy down to half 626 00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,679 a percent in that first quarter. But those numbers are 627 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:02,639 kind of old us. Next week we're starting the third quarter, 628 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:06,280 so we're wrapping up the second quarter on Monday. Meantime, 629 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:10,199 on the markets, today, a good day. Mortgage rates for 630 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,800 those of you in the mortgage market. They dropped to 631 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,679 a seven week low today. And when I say they 632 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,719 dropped to a seven week low, down to six point 633 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:25,039 seven percent, it's not much. It's an average. By the way. 634 00:39:25,079 --> 00:39:28,000 Freddie Mack takes a survey of mortgage bankers around the 635 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,760 country and then issues out a weekly report on Thursday. 636 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,400 So it's not a rate that you can walk into 637 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,480 and get specifically from a bank or a mortgage banker. 638 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,800 But that's the average rate of mortgages in this past week. 639 00:39:41,559 --> 00:39:44,760 And the dollar went lower, in fact quite a bit 640 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:49,199 lower today, down tumbling down to a three year low. 641 00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,000 Donald Trump is taking aim at Jay Powell ahead of 642 00:39:53,039 --> 00:39:56,840 the Fed and says he wants to name somebody else early. 643 00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,679 Palell's term doesn't end until next May. It's almost a 644 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,840 year from now, but Trump apparently is going to talk 645 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,840 about naming a standby FED chairman, which is a terrible 646 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,599 idea because the members of the Federal Reserve Board is 647 00:40:11,599 --> 00:40:14,159 not just Jay Powell. There's a number of other members 648 00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:19,559 that vote on interest rates and they they'll be listening 649 00:40:19,559 --> 00:40:23,679 to Jay Powell. So I know the President is frustrated 650 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,400 with Powell, and a lot of people are thinking that 651 00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,800 he's being too cautious and won't drop interest rates. Even 652 00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,360 though there's lots of signs that the economy is weakening, 653 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,920 there's also plenty of signs that, as you heard Austin Goilsby, 654 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:42,800 the labor market still persistently strong. The markets today up 655 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,920 on the Dow up four hundred and four to forty 656 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,639 three thousand and three eighty six, the S and P 657 00:40:49,159 --> 00:40:53,440 up forty eight, the Nasdaq up one hundred ninety four, 658 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,239 the price of gold up ninety cents, barely moved thirty 659 00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,280 three forty four for an ounce of gold, and oil 660 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,599 barely moved up thirty cents to sixty five dollars and 661 00:41:03,639 --> 00:41:07,519 thirty cents for one barrel of oil. So that's it 662 00:41:07,599 --> 00:41:10,719 for today, Thank you for coming. By tomorrow's Friday. We've 663 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,599 got the last day of the Supreme Court tomorrow, so 664 00:41:13,639 --> 00:41:18,159 we should get some interesting results from them, and we'll 665 00:41:18,159 --> 00:41:20,719 pass it on to you. Thank you when we hope 666 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:48,079 to see you again tomorrow