Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse from
Speaker 1: March thirty first, twenty twenty six. It's the last day
Speaker 1: of the month and Bitcoin is staring down a record
Speaker 1: it really doesn't want to set. Got a lot to
Speaker 1: unpack today, so let's get into it. But first, a
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening.
Speaker 1: So here's where we are. Bitcoin is sitting just under
Speaker 1: sixty seven thousand dollars right now, down a couple percent
Speaker 1: on the day, and the number everyone's watching tonight is
Speaker 1: sixty seven three hundred. That's the line. If Bitcoin closes
Speaker 1: below that, it locks in six consecutive monthly losses, six
Speaker 1: straight months in the red, which means, in playing terms,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has finished lower than has started every single month
Speaker 1: since last October. The last time that happened was twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: and if you remember twenty eighteen, you remember it wasn't
Speaker 1: a fun year. Now contact matters here. Twenty eighteen didn't
Speaker 1: have spot ETF infrastructure, it didn't have institutional buyers with
Speaker 1: real allocations. The market is genuinely different. But here's the takeaway.
Speaker 1: A six month losing streak is a psychological threshold, not
Speaker 1: just a technical one. When that gets named, when it
Speaker 1: shows up in mainstream financial headlines, retail investors can start
Speaker 1: to panic sell, not because anything fundamental changed, but because
Speaker 1: people get tired of being wrong. So watch the close tonight.
Speaker 1: That's the number. So where does that leave the rest
Speaker 1: of the market? Pretty much where you'd expect. Ethereum is
Speaker 1: hovering around two thousand dollars, down a little on the day.
Speaker 1: Solana drops sharply, down over four percent in a single session,
Speaker 1: while Bitcoin lost less than two Why does that gap matter?
Speaker 1: When the risk hear higher beta assets fall harder than
Speaker 1: Bitcoin on a down day, It means investors are pulling
Speaker 1: back from risk across the board, not just rotating from
Speaker 1: one coin to another. Total market cap is around two
Speaker 1: point four trillion. Bitcoin dominance, which is just Bitcoin's share
Speaker 1: of the total crypto market, is just above fifty six
Speaker 1: percent and actually ticking up slightly, which means even as
Speaker 1: Bitcoin falls, it's falling less than everything else. That's not
Speaker 1: a great sign for all coins. Defied Total value locked,
Speaker 1: that's the amount of money sitting in decentralized finance protocols,
Speaker 1: is basically flat, around ninety two billion. Nothing dramatic there. Now,
Speaker 1: the place where things get genuinely weird is the narrative tracker.
Speaker 1: Mem tokens are up over thirty percent in the last
Speaker 1: seven days. Deep in that's decentralized physical infrastructure networks, which
Speaker 1: is essentially cryptoincentivized real world hardware like wireless hotspots and
Speaker 1: storage devices up twenty five percent. AI tokens up nearly
Speaker 1: twenty percent. All of this while Bitcoin bleeds. The takeaway
Speaker 1: speculative money is moving somewhere, just not into Bitcoin. That
Speaker 1: divergence is the story of the week, and we're going
Speaker 1: to come back to it, all right, So what's actually
Speaker 1: driving all this? Let me walk you through the big stories. First,
Speaker 1: the quantum computing thing. Google's latest research is tightening the
Speaker 1: timeline on what the crypto community calls QGA, the theoretical
Speaker 1: point when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to crack bitcoins.
Speaker 1: Encryption research is responding to Google's paper, are now flagging
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two as a credible window, not someday, not
Speaker 1: someday twenty thirty two. Here's the uncomfortable math. There are
Speaker 1: roughly four million bitcoins sitting in addresses that expose their
Speaker 1: public keys which means, in plain English, those coins could
Speaker 1: theoretically be stolen by a powerful enough quantum computer because
Speaker 1: the encryption protecting them would be breakable. Now, the crypto
Speaker 1: community has known this was coming for years. The problem
Speaker 1: is that knowing something is coming and actually shipping a
Speaker 1: fix are very different things. And here's the detail that
Speaker 1: caught my attention today. Z Cash, a privacy coin built
Speaker 1: on a type of cryptography that's considered more quantum resistant,
Speaker 1: was the top mover in the market, up nearly ten percent.
Speaker 1: The takeaway the market may already be quietly pricing in
Speaker 1: quantum sk even before any official announcement. Coincidence maybe, but
Speaker 1: worth watching. Okay, second story, and this one is actually
Speaker 1: kind of quietly huge. A new US rule could open
Speaker 1: the eight trillion dollar retirement market to crypto eight trillion.
Speaker 1: For context, that's the pool of money sitting in four
Speaker 1: oh one ks and iras across America, and it dwarfs everything.
Speaker 1: The spot ETF launch delivered. The catch, and there's always
Speaker 1: a catch, is that could open is doing a lot
Speaker 1: of heavy lifting in that sentence. Rules get proposed, rules
Speaker 1: get challenged, rules get watered down, but the directional shift
Speaker 1: is real. The regulatory posture toward crypto in retirement accounts
Speaker 1: has moved from absolutely not to under certain conditions, which
Speaker 1: means the door is cracked open for the first time.
Speaker 1: Think of it as the foundation being poured, not the
Speaker 1: building going up. The building takes years, but you don't
Speaker 1: build without the foundation. Watch whether this moves to a
Speaker 1: formal comment period in the next week. That's when it
Speaker 1: becomes a real catalyst, not just a headline. Third that
Speaker 1: meme and narrative divergence I mentioned Meme market caps up
Speaker 1: thirty one percent in seven days while Bitcoin is flat
Speaker 1: to down. One of two things is true here. Either
Speaker 1: retail is rotating into high beta plays as a last
Speaker 1: gas momentum chase, or there's genuine new capital coming in
Speaker 1: through the meme door. History says it's usually the former.
Speaker 1: The deep in and AI moves are more interesting to me. Honestly,
Speaker 1: those narratives have actual product development behind them, which means
Speaker 1: the price gains have something real underneath them, not just
Speaker 1: HYPEI Tokens at over twenty two billion in market cap
Speaker 1: with nearly twenty percent weekly gains suggests something beyond pure speculation.
Speaker 1: But the tension here is real. Narrative gains and major
Speaker 1: asset performance can't diverge forever. Either Bitcoin catches up or
Speaker 1: the narratives roll over. One of those resolves soon. And Fourth,
Speaker 1: this one's a model breaker if it plays out standard,
Speaker 1: chartered flagged something counterintuitive. Faster stable coin velocity could actually
Speaker 1: reduce stable coin demand, not grow it. Here's the analogy.
Speaker 1: It's like a river. A fast river moves the same
Speaker 1: volume of water with less water in it at any moment.
Speaker 1: If stable coins settle transactions faster, you need fewer sitting
Speaker 1: idle in the system. Why does this matter because rising
Speaker 1: stable coin supply has been one of the cleanest signals
Speaker 1: that fresh money is entering crypto. More stable coins on
Speaker 1: the sideline means more dry powder ready to buy. If
Speaker 1: velocity rises, but someply growth slows, that signal gets complicated.
Speaker 1: The takeaway it's not a crisis, but it's a reminder
Speaker 1: that the rules of the game can change quietly, and
Speaker 1: the investors who don't update their models are the ones
Speaker 1: who get caught off guard. Quick hits. Before we move on,
Speaker 1: Utan's government moved another twenty five million dollars in bitcoin
Speaker 1: this week, with weekly transfers topping one thousand bitcoin. The
Speaker 1: recipient address has previously sent funds to Galaxy Digital, which
Speaker 1: means this is real, ongoing sovereign selling pressure, not a
Speaker 1: one off. Interactive Brokers launched crypto trading across the European
Speaker 1: economic Area, offering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP alongside stocks
Speaker 1: and futures. Quiet infrastructure expansion, which matters more for long
Speaker 1: term adoption than most daily price moves. A hacker was
Speaker 1: charged over the fifty three million dollar uranium finance exploit
Speaker 1: from years ago, a reminder that on chain transactions are
Speaker 1: traceable and prosecutors are getting much better at following the money.
Speaker 1: And AVE Labs launched V four with a new hub
Speaker 1: and spoke lending architecture on Ethereum, the biggest structural upgrade
Speaker 1: to the largest DeFi lending protocol in years. Watch the
Speaker 1: total value lock numbers over the next thirty days to
Speaker 1: see if it actually moves the needle. All right, before
Speaker 1: we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. So
Speaker 1: what should you actually be worried about right now? Three
Speaker 1: things on my radar? One sentiment exhaustion, six consecutive monthly
Speaker 1: losses is a psychological threshold. When a streak like this
Speaker 1: gets named and covered in mainstream financial media, every day,
Speaker 1: investors can start selling out of frustration, not because anything
Speaker 1: fundamental changed, but because people get tired of being wrong.
Speaker 1: The takeaway tired buyers don't catch falling knives. Two That
Speaker 1: narrative versus major divergence is unc sustainable meme tokens up
Speaker 1: thirty one percent, while Bitcoin drops is a classic late
Speaker 1: cycle signal. Either it's the early stages of a real
Speaker 1: alt rotation, or it's speculative froth that unwinds violently the
Speaker 1: moment Bitcoin sneezes, which means if you're holding high beta
Speaker 1: narrative tokens right now, the risk isn't just that they fall,
Speaker 1: it's that they fall fast and all at once. Three
Speaker 1: Quantum timeline compression. Google's research doesn't threaten bitcoin tomorrow, but
Speaker 1: every paper that tightens the window from theoretical to twenty
Speaker 1: thirty two adds another drip of uncertainty to a market
Speaker 1: already dealing with macro headwinds. The risk isn't the technology itself,
Speaker 1: it's the narrative taking hold before the fix is ready.
Speaker 1: That's a slow moving tail risk with fast moving narrative potential.
Speaker 1: Looking ahead. Three things to watch this week. First and
Speaker 1: most immediate, tonight's Bitcoin monthly close the sixty seven three
Speaker 1: hundred line. That's it. That's the whole story for the
Speaker 1: next twelve hours. A close above it breaks the streak
Speaker 1: and likely flips short term sentiment positive. A close below
Speaker 1: it means the six month losing streak narrative dominates headlines
Speaker 1: for days. Second, whether the US Retirement Market crypto rule
Speaker 1: moves to a formal comment period before April seventh. If
Speaker 1: it does, it becomes a durable tailwind narrative for Q two,
Speaker 1: which means a sustained positive story that could support prices
Speaker 1: over weeks, not just a day. If it stalls, treat
Speaker 1: it as a headline and nothing more. Third, ave V
Speaker 1: four metrics over the next seven days. The hub and
Speaker 1: Spoke architecture overhaul just launched. Watch whether Ethereum's DeFi total
Speaker 1: value locked grows from its current base or continues to plateau.
Speaker 1: That tells you something real about where institutional DeFi interest
Speaker 1: actually is. Right now. That's the daily pulse from March thirty.
Speaker 1: First one number tonight sixty seven three hundred watch the close.
Speaker 1: If you found this useful, share it with someone who's
Speaker 1: trying to make sense of the market, or subscribe to
Speaker 1: the podcast so you never miss an episode. And if
Speaker 1: you want daily market signals and weekly Q and A breakdowns,
Speaker 1: check out Tokenmetrics Signal at tokenmetrics dot com. As always,
Speaker 1: this is educational content, not investment advice. Crypto is high
Speaker 1: risk and you should always do your own research before
Speaker 1: making any financial decisions. I'm Alex, See you next time.