Speaker 1: Want to know which teams are getting upset This week,
We're gonna break down some top twenty five games. We're
gonna get into some best bets. That deli is still open,
I hear the ding, and of course that freight train
with the steam report from VR is coming in nice
and hot up next on bet on It. We are
halfway through college football season and it feels surreal, but
we're gonna keep those top twenty five games going.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: I'm Kelly Stewart, joined by Yati the Greek and Marco
D'Angelo of wager talk dot Com. Marco, I'm gonna let
you go first. We're gonna get right into this one.
I think this is kind of a head scratcher Noon
Eastern number ten, LSU catching two and a half at
number seventeen, Vanderbilt forty nine and a half. I think
the initial reaction is what am I missing here? I
bet against LSU last week in a heartbreaking fashion. We
did not get this bread covered. And I kind of
said that in the Barking Dog segment, so I must
have put that.
Speaker 3: In the universe.
Speaker 1: But the universe is telling me this one is Vandy
all the way. Baby, tell me why we got to
lay the two and a half.
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, I mean you're exactly right when you look
at this. First of all, you say LSU and you
say Vanderbilt, and you're like, what Vanderbilt? You know, Halloway favorite.
Then if you look at the rankings, you got those
numbers in front of these two teams, LSU's number ten,
Vanderbilt's number seventeen. So again you say, why is Vanderbilt favorite?
Then you looked and say in looked at the series
history and LSU has absolutely owned this series over Vanderbilt.
And again you're scratching your head, but I'm going to
tell you this Vanderbilt team, they're good. Their only loss
was to Alabama thirty to four team, and that was
a big revenge game for Alabama if you remember the
year before Vanderbilt knocked off Alabama. Vandy has had two
weeks to regroup from that Alabama game, and that's important.
If it would have been the very next week, I
wouldn't be as high on Vanderbilt. As we always say,
sometimes you can lose that same game twice. Well, they've
had that extra week to get over it. And I
look at this one, this LSU defense Now they've played good,
there's no question about it. But they're going to be
tested by this Vandy offense. Alabama was the only team
all year to hold Vanderbilt below thirty one points. Think
about that. This team is putting up points like crazy.
Now the LSU offense, that's another story. Are they going
to be able to trade points with Vanderbilt if they
don't get enough stops? Because this LSU offense has scored
twenty three or fewer points in five of their six games.
And just make sure you don't ask Brian Kelly after
the game about the offense because you'll go offline you.
But I think Vanderbilt is ready to this is their
coming out party against LSU. Yes, people are gonna say, well,
they couldn't beat Alabama. Are we really gonna say LSU
in Alabama or on equal footing? No, Alabama's playing better football.
I'm gonna go ahead. I'm gonna take Vanderbilt. I think
the offense is built to win and they're going to
do it this week. I got Vanderbilt winning thirty one
to twenty.
Speaker 1: Speaking of Alabama, I almost use them for VR and
I went back and forth and I said, no, I
think this Old Miss Georgia game is going to be
better three thirty pm Easter or number five Old Miss
catching just over a touchdown at Georgia fifty four and
a half. Here is the total VR. I kind of
I'm not gonna lie. I kind of just want to
take Old Miss on the money line. Loving what Lane
Kiffin's doing. Georgia Alabama the parody. As we've talked about
before the show, the cream is rising, yep, except now
it's not.
Speaker 3: All of the.
Speaker 1: Sec is taking a step forward and a couple of
the big dogs have taken a step back.
Speaker 2: Well, this is.
Speaker 5: How I've made my money so far in college football,
in these marquee games. It's taken advantage of the overrated, overvalued,
over ranked against the undervalued, underrated, under ranked team. And
here's another perfect example of that. Where you have an
Ole Miss team that's top five in the rankings, but
that's not their power rating, and you have a Georgia
team that's barely in the top ten in the rankings,
but their power ratings are a lot better. In fact,
where I have Georgia right now, I'll tell you I
don't think there's more than three or four teams that
would be favored over Georgia on a neutral field. Those
teams are Ohio State, Notre Dame, Yes, Notre Dame. I
said it, Alabama, and Oregon. They lost to Alabama, which
again a five to one Alabama team.
Speaker 2: Knew how good Alabama was.
Speaker 5: If Georgia is able with that run defense to force
Ole Miss into being more one dimensional to where they
have to throw the football, They're gonna be in a
lot of trouble with the pressure that george is gonna
be able to put on them and the secondary. Georgia's
defense is third inefficiency in all of college football. Mississippi
has not faced anything like this all season. In fact,
Mississippi comes in with the thirty second toughest strength of
schedule already compared to Georgia, who's played the fourth toughest
strength of schedule.
Speaker 2: Everything points to Georgia. Here.
Speaker 5: The line moved as well, now up over a touchdown.
I gave it out to my subscribers at six and
a half or seven. I think you're good at seven
at seven and a half if you agree with me
by the half a point, only up.
Speaker 2: The one twenty five.
Speaker 5: Otherwise, lay the seven and a half at minus one
ten because the half point isn't worth that much. So
go ahead, take Georgia, who will continue to rise in
the rankings because we have a long enough college football
season where the phonies, these fake teams, not say Mississippi
is but the overrated, over valued based on their record.
They'll start getting some losses, they'll start dropping, and these
one loss teams, even two loss teams like Notre Dame,
will start climbing.
Speaker 2: So give me Georgia.
Speaker 5: Lay the points, don't tease it, even though I like
them on the money line.
Speaker 2: Take Georgia.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know you tried to walk that back, but
it kind of sounded like to me you said Ole
miss was a phony VR. I may have to take
a second look at that game. Another game that I
had to take a second look at seven thirty pm
Eastern number twenty, USC catching nine and a half headed
into Notre Dame sixty one and a half.
Speaker 3: Here is the.
Speaker 1: Total and look, bottom line, Lincoln Riley and the USC
Trojans have a quarter back once again second in all
of college football first and yards per play, thirteen touchdowns
on the season, And so I can understand why here
we are looking at maybe saying this is too many
points with the Trojans. But if you guys, remember I
bet against USC headed into Illinois and they lost that
game outright? What did Lincoln Riley do? Oh wait, he
complained about that early start time. But those trips east
have not fared very well, including when they just struggled
against Purdue since joining the Big Ten. And this is
from our friends over at the gold Sheet. USC two
and five straight up, one and six against the spread,
and true row games with five outright losses as a favorite,
So keep that one in your back pocket. Yes, they
are a sizeable underdog here, but as ther just mentioned,
Notre Dame is actually power rated much higher. They arguably
had a shaky start, but who did they play? Undefeated Miami,
undefeated anm The Irish defense sent has allowed twenty seven points.
Speaker 3: They beat up on Arkansas, Boise.
Speaker 1: State, and NC State, And normally I am not at
chalk eating weasel, but let's just be honest. I'm also
not gonna bet the underdog with fleas and I think
that is what the Trojans are here. So if I'm
gonna play it, as Teddy Covers likes to say, I'm
gonna lay it, you guys, are enjoying bet on It
so far, Please give us that like, hit that subscribe button.
Speaker 3: Jump in the comment sections.
Speaker 1: I told Marco and VR going forward, we all have
to jump in there so we can argue amongst ourselves.
Speaker 3: We can agree with each other.
Speaker 1: Let us know if you think we're right or wrong
about these early TV games.
Speaker 3: VR.
Speaker 1: Every single Sunday, you are in the steam room here
on the wager Talk YouTube channel and you're giving out
up to the minute data.
Speaker 3: You were giving up late plays.
Speaker 1: You were saying, here's these major line moves, here's what
we need to be looking at. And on Wednesdays here
on bet on It in the college football edition, you
let us know what these wise guys are doing early
in the week. I'm gonna start off with a question
because I want the answer to it is. Well, Marco
asked you kind of a bought this two way action,
so to speak. On a Friday night, gave Nebraska Minnesota.
Can you start their please?
Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's actually the first game we're going to cover.
Nebraska open six and a half got slammed right away.
They hit the seven and seven and a half. That's
a big, big play when you see them hit that
through that key number that moved it up to eight
and a half.
Speaker 2: Nine.
Speaker 5: That's when you started seeing the Minnesota money come in.
So we saw Minnesota yesterday plus nine plus eight and
a half, heavy steam on Minnesota after the Nebraska side
got bt up. I personally like the group that bet
the Minnesota side more. They don't middle games much, they
don't scout money lines much.
Speaker 2: They take more truer positions.
Speaker 5: So I think when this line got a little bit
too high, they stepped in and took the points with Minnesota.
Another Friday game that we're seeing dog Love UNC at
eleven and a half and ten and a half. Move
over to Saturday three thirty Miami, Ohio minus eleven and
a half minus twelve and twelve and a half. Pay
attention to those that continue to move three thirty five
Old Dominion. Anytime Old Dominion's moving up to two to
two and a half, it gets picked off. That's why
it's sitting there at one and a half right now.
Three forty nine Georgia Tech. This is one of those
that I love to pay attention to the initial move
when the limits were low. Remember when they first pushed
these up to some of these limits are like the nickel. Okay,
they dummied up the Georgia Tech line, so they dummied
up Duke at two and a half to three.
Speaker 2: That's when all that.
Speaker 5: Georgia Tech's team came in At Georgia Tech plus three.
The piggybackers are taking to two and a half and two.
That's why it's sitting at where it is right now.
But that was a beautiful maneuver on the Georgia Tech
side to get that field goal. Three point fifty eight
Syracuse plus eleven and a half plus eleven and under
seems correlated.
Speaker 2: Lower scoring game.
Speaker 5: Eleven points seems like a lot three sixty one Central Michigan.
Speaker 2: Plus six, five and a half and five.
Speaker 5: Vanderbilt bringing that came up because it's another situation where
we're seeing two way sharp action and it makes sense.
First move was on Vanderbilt at minus one one and
a half two. When three popped up on the board,
obviously it's a key number. Another group swooped in and
took LSU plus three. Shows you just how tight some
of these lines are. These are two groups that are
both profitable long term. One sees value at minus one,
the other one sees value at plus three. Two completely
different pets on the same game. Uh Boise three seventy
Bois minus ten and a half eleven, eleven and a
half and twelve every half point increment.
Speaker 2: They didn't move it fast enough. Bois's getting hit.
Speaker 5: UCLA minus two and a half and minus three laid
the three there against Maryland.
Speaker 2: Wyoming four oh five.
Speaker 5: This one, just like the uh Georgia tech love when
I see this happen, got dummied up on the Air
Force side.
Speaker 2: It was five and a half.
Speaker 5: Bet it up with took probably a nickel bett get
at the six. That's when all that Wyoming steam came in.
Piggybackers are taking the five and the four and a half,
but the official move was at six and finally four
fifteen USC plus eight and a half and eight that
got down to that key number didn't get to the
key number forgive me. They didn't wait for the key
number of seven on Notre Dame. Instead they came in
and laid the seven and a half, eight, eight and
a half nine on Notre Dame. So a lot of
love on the Notre Dame side. That's so far what
we have up until Wednesday. Pay attention tomorrow. That's when all.
Speaker 2: Those totals get hit.
Speaker 5: So Odds Logic screens should be up and you'll get
a lot of total moves.
Speaker 1: To take advantage of absolutely Oddslogic dot Com backslash ace
get you a free weeks trial.
Speaker 3: You guys should look into it, even if it's only
for a week.
Speaker 1: It will change the way you bet and the way
you shop for lines.
Speaker 3: All right, barking Dog time and would.
Speaker 1: Appear on the only one that didn't have a double
digit onderdog. And I looked really hard, and then I
realized Marco had one that I liked, and then I
realized VR had one that I.
Speaker 3: Liked, and so well, I have the Chihuahua this week.
Speaker 1: But Marco, you have the biggest underdog, so you getta
go first.
Speaker 3: Not gonna lie.
Speaker 1: I scratched this went off on my list early in
the week, and then I thought, maybe Marco thinks I
should be looking at it again.
Speaker 3: Marco, tell me why you think Syracuse is live. Well.
Speaker 4: Pitt made a change at quarterback two games back, and
it's paid huge dividends as Mason High School has led
Pitt to back to back wins. In his first start,
he threw for three hundred and thirty one yards in
a forty eight to seven win. But beating Boston College,
you know that's not that impressive. They're not having a
good year. But last week they went to Florida State
and maybe they caught a Florida State team that had
that hangover effect from losing a game the week before.
But they went in a shootout ten and a half
point underdog, and they beat Florida State on the road
thirty four to thirty one, and he had another big
day passing the football. Now you take a team second
week in a row on the road, going from an
underdog that won outright to now being a favorite on
the road. Hey, that's something that I don't like. I
love fading those type of teams. You want to fade
a fat and sassy road favorite, and that's what we've
got here. Syracuse has been their own worst enemy in
their last couple of games. They went into the bye
week coming off two games in which they had six
turnovers in the last two games. You turn the ball
over that many times, you're gonna lose football games. But
as I always say, teams that go into the bye
week on a bad note, generally are gonna come out
of that bye week with a good performance, and I
think given the extra week to prepare, couple that with
playing a fat and sassy PIT team, you've got the
makings of a very, very live underdog here. I'm gonna
go ahead, and although Pit's putting up points, their defense
is giving up points two. I'm not gonna lay points
on the road with Pitt. Give me Syracuse. This one
should be a barn burner. Let's call it Syracuse thirty
one thirty woo.
Speaker 1: All right, VR, you are stepping in front of a
freight train, and I'm gonna do that in the Best
Bat segment.
Speaker 3: But this one is a real freight train.
Speaker 1: This is a team that I picked right here on
the show twelve to one to win the Big twelve.
Speaker 3: I feel like.
Speaker 1: I'm sitting pretty but you think they're on upset alert
this week?
Speaker 5: Yeah, and this is another one I released to my
subscribers at plus ten four percent play on Arizona State
Listen week.
Speaker 2: We could talk x's and o's and all.
Speaker 5: The handicapping, but it's as simple as what I've been
repeating throughout the entire season so far. Take advantage of
that rank team based on the record that is not
as good as they appear. In Texas Tech another perfect
example of that. They're six and oh. Guess what they
should be six and oh. The only tough game they
had was against Utah, And based on that Utah result
is why we're getting such a gift with Arizona State
because we have a common opponent in Utah. And just
last week we saw Arizona State get blown out by Utah,
and on the flip side, that was the biggest win
for Texas Tech. But if you compare what the line
was for those games and you compare what this line is,
you will notice there's been about a four plus point
adjustment on the Texas Tech side. And we know you
should never overreact to any single result. There's a lot
of randomness that could happen in this sixty minute football game,
so that adjustment just isn't warranted. Why is Texas Tech
six and oh because they've had an easy schedule. In fact,
they've as far as difficulty goes, it's the fifty sixth
toughest schedule in college football so far. So again, this
is the six and OHO team that should be six
to zero. Now they're going to start to get tested,
and when you have a defense that's only thirty ninth
in efficiency lane, double digits is a lot to ask for,
even against an Arizona State offense, which isn't you know,
top ten or anything like that.
Speaker 2: But they are top.
Speaker 5: Thirty defensively and we sold even against Utah. They did
really good against the pass and it was the running
game that did the damage.
Speaker 2: Well, we know what Texas Tech does. It's an aerial saul.
Speaker 5: They're decently balanced, but it's it's thirty air that they
do most of the damage. That's where I think Arizona
State's defensive strengths lie. So there's a lot to like
on the Arizona State side. Finally, Morton quarterback for Texas Tech,
not one hundred percent. That worries me a little bit.
That's why we're seeing this line drop. I would like
him to play, so there's not you know, that injured
player that Marco teaches us about to take advantage of.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I like Arizona State. Here.
Speaker 5: Double digit was a gift eight and a half. I
would still bet it. I would just smaller bet because
I think anything over seven is the right.
Speaker 2: Side on Arizona State at home.
Speaker 1: Whoo, all right, I don't like to hear that from
my futures bet, but I would argue that Arizona State
at least was on my long list for this week,
and another team that was on my long list. But
I was a little hesitant because I was like, Okay,
are they gonna fire Billy Nape here? What is going
on in Gainesville? We've been hearing lots of different rumblings
out of there, And as I mentioned earlier, the idea
of the barking dog segment is, Hey, we're gonna look
for teams that have a shot to win out right,
but ideally I don't think there should be.
Speaker 3: A sweat for them to cover.
Speaker 1: Yet every single week, that's what I've been giving you, guys,
is an absolute, utter, painful barking dog.
Speaker 3: So buckle up and be prepared for heartbreak.
Speaker 1: Mississippi State plus eight and a half, and I know
this has been one of the best ATS teams dating
back to the middle of last season, eleven and three
against the spread. They have outright wins this season over
Arizona State and took Tennessee to overtime as a seven
and a half point dog just a few weeks ago.
I love this team because what do they do? They
run the ball almost fifty eight percent of the time.
So when that ball is on the ground, that clock
keeps going, making points at a premium DJ Lagway can
he beat a team not named Texas? We're gonna find out.
He may also be good for a pick against this defense.
That's right, take the better defense plus the points. You
guys know, I'm a sucker for that situation, So give
me the plus eight and a half, and of course
sprinkle just a little bit on that money line. Marco,
another dog that I liked on the money line, made
your sandwich game of the week, the Deli eighteen and
the eighte.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just cruising right along. Haven't had to be condemned
one time.
Speaker 4: Yes, Delli, check out Marco's Delhi every week. We released
that on Thursday, late Thursday, and it's been good. We've
had six weeks. We've had four winning weeks, one winning
week and one two and one week. And it depends.
We graded the game as a push last week Missouri.
That was the push plus three, but that line was
three and a Half's were available everywhere, so I think
everybody got to the window and got a win on
that one, but check it out. It's free. We give
you games that were in consideration for this segment on
bet on It, and then a few more. In the
NFL version, we've given you four college plays each week,
one NFL play. The NFL played another winner last week
with Carolina over the Cowboys. Now five and one on
the season with the NFL plays on the Deli. So
check that out for the sandwich this week here for
bet on It, we got a tasty one, Kelly. We're
gonna go to South Carolina and this one is simple.
We've got Oklahoma's coming off the first loss of the season.
They lost to Texas last week in the Red River Shootout.
We talk about it all the time, when a team
plays a big game, they come up short, they have
a tendency they can lose that same game twice. They
come out with that hangover effect, flat, whatever terminology you
want to use. That is enough for me to start
looking at fading Oklahoma. But what really seals the deal
for me in this game is look at what Oklahoma
has on deck. You're coming off your big rivalry game
against Texas and next week you've got a top five
matchup against Old Miss. Now, obviously, if Old Miss loses
this week, they won't be in the top five. But
you look at what's in front of you, and Old
Miss is one of the top teams in the country
in the rankings. So talk about a sandwich game. You
go from Texas to play South Carolina and then you
got Mississippi on deck. Yeah, that is a monster sandwich.
If you look at South Carolina, they hummed tough last
week with LSU. They lost twenty to ten. They probably
deserved a better result in that game. They played well enough.
I think they could have covered that game easily depending
on that line dropped during the week. But I'm gonna
go ahead and take South Carolina here. I like this team.
They're gritty. I think they give Oklahoma a battle. Here,
give me those points with South Carolina. I got them
actually pulling an upset twenty three to twenty. Go game Cocks.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Marco, I just text our producer Lou and I said, hey,
I'm so sorry because last week I did the same thing.
Speaker 3: I'm so sorry.
Speaker 1: You guys are gonna lose a heartbreaking fashion once again.
But they're gonna get us that cover.
Speaker 3: Marco. They owe it to us after last week.
Speaker 1: Before we get into best bats, I gotta tell you
guys about flax pin. If you guys have never heard
about flexpicks, they give you the ultimate flexibility to access
the daily picks that you want from the experts that
you trust.
Speaker 3: First, you're gonna choose your handicapper.
Speaker 1: Then you're gonna get full access for the day, so
you can plan ahead or go day by day. When
you log in and make your pick schedule, keep in
mind anytime you can switch up your experts up until
the plays are released, and then of course you can
skip days at your convenience. So if you have a
thirty day Flexpis package, it doesn't have to be used
in thirty consecutive days right now thirty days, just two
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Speaker 3: Talk dot com.
Speaker 1: And if you're a little shy and you just want
to try it out for three or seven days, you
can do that as well, or partner up for the
entire year for fourteen ninety nine VR. Before we get
into your best bet for this weekend, college football, let
everybody know what you have up over at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 5: Indeed, I have my college football package up with a
five percent big move, my first five percent college football
in weeks currently number one in college football, up about
one hundred units, only one losing week. There have been
eight weeks of college football so far, won seven of
oh's or seven weeks one six of oh's. Regardless, it's
been a great college football season.
Speaker 2: That's up.
Speaker 5: There's about four plays already in that package. NFL just
released today the first two premiums. That package will be
up as well for Sunday's action.
Speaker 2: Don't forget.
Speaker 5: We're coming off two to oh sweep of five percent
big moves last week in the NFL. It was warranted
and went seven to one on four percent, so running
really good in football. Those packages are up for Saturday
and Sunday, but don't forget throughout the week, coming in
off a four percent winner on the over in Liberty
last night, those primetime games have been money. And of
course I'll be in Vancouver for UFC Up there on Saturday,
so I'll have that card as well. Just a great,
great time to jump on board Major League Baseball playoffs.
We have the Seattle Mariner to win the AL for
forty units pending and then one hundred units pending on
Seattle to win the World Series. So it's a good,
good couple weeks ahead for us.
Speaker 1: Jump on board, all right, you've been doing well with
these totals and you have another total best bet for
us this week.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'm gonna take advantage of It looks low
based on a little bit of recency bias. What I
mean by that is you have a Maryland and UCLA
team that are coming in off of high scoring games
where both offenses were able to put over thirty points up.
So you're gonna see a little skewed total based on that.
And that's exactly what we're looking at, because if you
look at Maryland's totals throughout the year, they've been low.
In fact, three of the last five totals for their
games were lined below fifty and the same thing with Ucla.
In fact, two of their last three were lined below
forty nine. So you see the adjustment to markets made
trying to correct itself off of that recency rest asshured
the public's going to bet this total over. I like
what I'm seeing out of the UCLA defense, one of
the best defenses in college football that's correct against one
of the toughest schedules, thirteenth, toughest strength of schedule, and
a solid, solid defense getting better, getting better again. When
you're a UCLA team, you're not going to be in
the top you know, twenty, but if you can make
it into the top thirty or forty, you're doing pretty good.
And I think UCLA is doing exactly that. Maryland's a
top thirty five defense as well. They've gotten a little
bit lucky though with turnovers. I think they're the highest
positive turnover differential that turns into points, But that luck
always is going to even out. I think they're plus
some ten in fumbles, like they've gotten really really lucky.
But here's what sticks out the most that UCLA points
have come with their efficiency in the red zone. They've
converted on ninety five percent of red zone opportunities. Well,
they're going up against arguably one of the best red
zone defenses in college football in Maryland, who actually stops
seventy two percent of trips in the red zone from scoring.
So it's the perfect storm to get a much lower
scoring game than this total reflex and anything below fifty
one above fifty one, I think all for value, we're
looking at fifty two to fifty two and a halfs
right now, got.
Speaker 2: To go under.
Speaker 3: All right, Marco, you also have a total. This is fine.
Speaker 1: I like mixing it up here on a Wednesday afternoon,
but before you give us this winning total, please let
me know what you've got up at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, we got a special going for the rest
of the season. There's ten weeks left in twenty twenty five,
and we've put together a package that's going to get
you every play I release in every sport. Why is
that such a big deal? Well, next week the NBA starts.
Hockey's underway. They started last week. College basketball is just
around the corner, and of course we've got college and
pro football. Since twenty twenty I'm the number one NBA
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head over to wager Talk, go to my homepage. You'll
be able to get that special. That's all sports, all plays,
including all of those big five percent plays. And we
hit a five percent last week again, we had a
five percent with Tampa Bay. They got the money against
San Francisco, and we got another five percent coming this weekend.
No better time to jump on board for my total.
It hit my best bet, Kelly. We're gonna take a
look at gonna stay close to home and look at
the UNLV Boise State game. Now, this one's actually gonna
be in Boise UNOV will be traveling there. And when
you look at this game the first glance, and this
is why you can't overreact to one week's results. But
people are gonna look at this game. They're gonna look
and see UNLV was in a fifty one to forty
eight shootout last week in Boise State, was in a
forty one to twenty five blowout. In this total sixty
two and a half. There's only one way for us
to go. Go to the over in this one. No,
not so fast, guys. And the problem is this is
a game that basically is a playoff game. The winner
of this game is most likely the winner of the
Mountain West com Conference. And if that winner of the
Mountain West Conference happens to be UNLV, they're probably going
to be undefeated because the rest of their schedule's pretty
easy and that would put them in line to get
into the playoff Pitcher Boise State. We know their dominance
of UNLV over the years, and the reason their dominance
has been their physicality. You look at last week's game
and that's the fifty one to forty eight shootout with UNLV.
That was a game we were all over air Force
and the team total in that game because this year
air Force almost has unstoppable offense. We know how hard
it is to defend the option. Teams don't see it
that often, and then you've got to prepare for it
in one week.
Speaker 3: It's tough to do.
Speaker 4: But this year, not only do they have that offense
rolling with the option attack, they've got a legitimate passing
game does air Force. So UNLV had no shot of
stopping air Force last week. Plus they had this game
one deck with Boise State. This will be a totally
different game play because Boise State is gonna play smash
mouth football against UNLV. That's what's beat UNLV all these years.
They're gonna stick to the formula plus with everything the
implications of the winner of this game. They're gonna play
the game a little close to the vest, not to
make an early mistake and fall behind. I love this
total under sixty two and a half. We're getting a
premium number because of an overreaction. This game will be
played in the low fifties at best. In my opinion,
go under sixty two and a half. UNLV Boise State
is my best bet.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: And I have a best bet that I wanted to
put in the barking dog segment, and then I thought, well,
my barking dog's always in my parlay and I can't
use it Friday night game for my parlay.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna use it as our best bets.
Speaker 1: Louisville, if you guys remember, plus seven fifty was my
ACC champion from our college football preview show. Now that
might not come to fruition, but I think the Cardinals
still have a shot at it. But prior to their bye,
Louisville lost to Virginia and overtime and that probably derailed
things a little bit. But speaking of derailing, we've got
in Miami freight train five and oh straight up, four
and one against the spread.
Speaker 4: And.
Speaker 3: That was against top ten teams.
Speaker 1: Maybe Notre Dame was a top ten team according to
VR South Florida eh, top twenty five, maybe Florida in
Florida State. Let's pump the brakes here. I know Louisville
has been beat up all season. They've had some several
injury cluster injuries, specifically on the offense. But I do
trust Jeff Brohm and his ability to drop a game
plan against Mario Chrystobal. I'm taking the points, thirteen and
a half of them on Friday night in Coral Gabriels,
where the road team has won and covered each of
the last three meetings.
Speaker 3: Do I think that they can spring the upset? As
a matter of fact, I do so.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to sprinkle just a little bit on that
Louisville money line. All right, guys, we appreciate you hanging
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