1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,720 Speaker 1: Want to know which teams are getting upset This week, 2 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:06,160 We're gonna break down some top twenty five games. We're 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,759 gonna get into some best bets. That deli is still open, 4 00:00:09,919 --> 00:00:12,119 I hear the ding, and of course that freight train 5 00:00:12,519 --> 00:00:15,480 with the steam report from VR is coming in nice 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:34,439 and hot up next on bet on It. We are 7 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:38,960 halfway through college football season and it feels surreal, but 8 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,880 we're gonna keep those top twenty five games going. 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 2: Here. 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,039 Speaker 1: I'm Kelly Stewart, joined by Yati the Greek and Marco 11 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,119 D'Angelo of wager talk dot Com. Marco, I'm gonna let 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,359 you go first. We're gonna get right into this one. 13 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,679 I think this is kind of a head scratcher Noon 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,119 Eastern number ten, LSU catching two and a half at 15 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:04,079 number seventeen, Vanderbilt forty nine and a half. I think 16 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,159 the initial reaction is what am I missing here? I 17 00:01:07,159 --> 00:01:11,000 bet against LSU last week in a heartbreaking fashion. We 18 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,200 did not get this bread covered. And I kind of 19 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,319 said that in the Barking Dog segment, so I must 20 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:15,719 have put that. 21 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 3: In the universe. 22 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,879 Speaker 1: But the universe is telling me this one is Vandy 23 00:01:20,079 --> 00:01:22,159 all the way. Baby, tell me why we got to 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:23,000 lay the two and a half. 25 00:01:23,879 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, I mean you're exactly right when you look 26 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,120 at this. First of all, you say LSU and you 27 00:01:29,159 --> 00:01:33,159 say Vanderbilt, and you're like, what Vanderbilt? You know, Halloway favorite. 28 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,560 Then if you look at the rankings, you got those 29 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,640 numbers in front of these two teams, LSU's number ten, 30 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:44,200 Vanderbilt's number seventeen. So again you say, why is Vanderbilt favorite? 31 00:01:44,599 --> 00:01:47,200 Then you looked and say in looked at the series 32 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:52,079 history and LSU has absolutely owned this series over Vanderbilt. 33 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,079 And again you're scratching your head, but I'm going to 34 00:01:54,159 --> 00:01:57,760 tell you this Vanderbilt team, they're good. Their only loss 35 00:01:57,879 --> 00:02:01,480 was to Alabama thirty to four team, and that was 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,159 a big revenge game for Alabama if you remember the 37 00:02:04,239 --> 00:02:08,479 year before Vanderbilt knocked off Alabama. Vandy has had two 38 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,400 weeks to regroup from that Alabama game, and that's important. 39 00:02:11,439 --> 00:02:13,479 If it would have been the very next week, I 40 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,840 wouldn't be as high on Vanderbilt. As we always say, 41 00:02:16,879 --> 00:02:20,000 sometimes you can lose that same game twice. Well, they've 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,039 had that extra week to get over it. And I 43 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:27,319 look at this one, this LSU defense Now they've played good, 44 00:02:27,479 --> 00:02:29,639 there's no question about it. But they're going to be 45 00:02:29,759 --> 00:02:34,240 tested by this Vandy offense. Alabama was the only team 46 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,719 all year to hold Vanderbilt below thirty one points. Think 47 00:02:38,719 --> 00:02:41,400 about that. This team is putting up points like crazy. 48 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,680 Now the LSU offense, that's another story. Are they going 49 00:02:45,759 --> 00:02:48,520 to be able to trade points with Vanderbilt if they 50 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,759 don't get enough stops? Because this LSU offense has scored 51 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,199 twenty three or fewer points in five of their six games. 52 00:02:56,599 --> 00:02:59,080 And just make sure you don't ask Brian Kelly after 53 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,039 the game about the offense because you'll go offline you. 54 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,800 But I think Vanderbilt is ready to this is their 55 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,159 coming out party against LSU. Yes, people are gonna say, well, 56 00:03:11,199 --> 00:03:14,919 they couldn't beat Alabama. Are we really gonna say LSU 57 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:20,639 in Alabama or on equal footing? No, Alabama's playing better football. 58 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,680 I'm gonna go ahead. I'm gonna take Vanderbilt. I think 59 00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:26,840 the offense is built to win and they're going to 60 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,599 do it this week. I got Vanderbilt winning thirty one 61 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:30,159 to twenty. 62 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,439 Speaker 1: Speaking of Alabama, I almost use them for VR and 63 00:03:34,479 --> 00:03:36,560 I went back and forth and I said, no, I 64 00:03:36,599 --> 00:03:38,560 think this Old Miss Georgia game is going to be 65 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,919 better three thirty pm Easter or number five Old Miss 66 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:46,080 catching just over a touchdown at Georgia fifty four and 67 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,400 a half. Here is the total VR. I kind of 68 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,599 I'm not gonna lie. I kind of just want to 69 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:53,960 take Old Miss on the money line. Loving what Lane 70 00:03:54,039 --> 00:03:58,120 Kiffin's doing. Georgia Alabama the parody. As we've talked about 71 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,280 before the show, the cream is rising, yep, except now 72 00:04:01,319 --> 00:04:01,639 it's not. 73 00:04:02,039 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 3: All of the. 74 00:04:03,439 --> 00:04:05,719 Speaker 1: Sec is taking a step forward and a couple of 75 00:04:05,719 --> 00:04:07,439 the big dogs have taken a step back. 76 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 2: Well, this is. 77 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,439 Speaker 5: How I've made my money so far in college football, 78 00:04:11,879 --> 00:04:17,160 in these marquee games. It's taken advantage of the overrated, overvalued, 79 00:04:17,319 --> 00:04:21,879 over ranked against the undervalued, underrated, under ranked team. And 80 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,879 here's another perfect example of that. Where you have an 81 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,079 Ole Miss team that's top five in the rankings, but 82 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,879 that's not their power rating, and you have a Georgia 83 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,639 team that's barely in the top ten in the rankings, 84 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,639 but their power ratings are a lot better. In fact, 85 00:04:36,759 --> 00:04:41,279 where I have Georgia right now, I'll tell you I 86 00:04:41,319 --> 00:04:44,279 don't think there's more than three or four teams that 87 00:04:44,319 --> 00:04:47,720 would be favored over Georgia on a neutral field. Those 88 00:04:47,759 --> 00:04:51,360 teams are Ohio State, Notre Dame, Yes, Notre Dame. I 89 00:04:51,399 --> 00:04:56,480 said it, Alabama, and Oregon. They lost to Alabama, which 90 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,839 again a five to one Alabama team. 91 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:00,959 Speaker 2: Knew how good Alabama was. 92 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 5: If Georgia is able with that run defense to force 93 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,160 Ole Miss into being more one dimensional to where they 94 00:05:11,199 --> 00:05:13,040 have to throw the football, They're gonna be in a 95 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,519 lot of trouble with the pressure that george is gonna 96 00:05:15,519 --> 00:05:19,199 be able to put on them and the secondary. Georgia's 97 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:24,560 defense is third inefficiency in all of college football. Mississippi 98 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,360 has not faced anything like this all season. In fact, 99 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,560 Mississippi comes in with the thirty second toughest strength of 100 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:36,120 schedule already compared to Georgia, who's played the fourth toughest 101 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:37,160 strength of schedule. 102 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,399 Speaker 2: Everything points to Georgia. Here. 103 00:05:39,879 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 5: The line moved as well, now up over a touchdown. 104 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,240 I gave it out to my subscribers at six and 105 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,079 a half or seven. I think you're good at seven 106 00:05:49,399 --> 00:05:51,120 at seven and a half if you agree with me 107 00:05:51,199 --> 00:05:53,240 by the half a point, only up. 108 00:05:53,199 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: The one twenty five. 109 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 5: Otherwise, lay the seven and a half at minus one 110 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,319 ten because the half point isn't worth that much. So 111 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,199 go ahead, take Georgia, who will continue to rise in 112 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,920 the rankings because we have a long enough college football 113 00:06:08,959 --> 00:06:14,120 season where the phonies, these fake teams, not say Mississippi 114 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,399 is but the overrated, over valued based on their record. 115 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,240 They'll start getting some losses, they'll start dropping, and these 116 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,759 one loss teams, even two loss teams like Notre Dame, 117 00:06:24,959 --> 00:06:25,920 will start climbing. 118 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: So give me Georgia. 119 00:06:27,519 --> 00:06:30,399 Speaker 5: Lay the points, don't tease it, even though I like 120 00:06:30,439 --> 00:06:31,360 them on the money line. 121 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:33,079 Speaker 2: Take Georgia. 122 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: Oh, I know you tried to walk that back, but 123 00:06:34,759 --> 00:06:36,680 it kind of sounded like to me you said Ole 124 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:40,639 miss was a phony VR. I may have to take 125 00:06:40,639 --> 00:06:43,720 a second look at that game. Another game that I 126 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,040 had to take a second look at seven thirty pm 127 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:50,839 Eastern number twenty, USC catching nine and a half headed 128 00:06:50,879 --> 00:06:53,240 into Notre Dame sixty one and a half. 129 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 3: Here is the. 130 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: Total and look, bottom line, Lincoln Riley and the USC 131 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:03,480 Trojans have a quarter back once again second in all 132 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,480 of college football first and yards per play, thirteen touchdowns 133 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,360 on the season, And so I can understand why here 134 00:07:09,399 --> 00:07:12,160 we are looking at maybe saying this is too many 135 00:07:12,199 --> 00:07:14,560 points with the Trojans. But if you guys, remember I 136 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,360 bet against USC headed into Illinois and they lost that 137 00:07:18,439 --> 00:07:20,839 game outright? What did Lincoln Riley do? Oh wait, he 138 00:07:20,879 --> 00:07:24,519 complained about that early start time. But those trips east 139 00:07:25,079 --> 00:07:28,920 have not fared very well, including when they just struggled 140 00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:32,120 against Purdue since joining the Big Ten. And this is 141 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,319 from our friends over at the gold Sheet. USC two 142 00:07:35,399 --> 00:07:38,399 and five straight up, one and six against the spread, 143 00:07:38,399 --> 00:07:41,959 and true row games with five outright losses as a favorite, 144 00:07:41,959 --> 00:07:43,879 So keep that one in your back pocket. Yes, they 145 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:48,000 are a sizeable underdog here, but as ther just mentioned, 146 00:07:48,079 --> 00:07:53,160 Notre Dame is actually power rated much higher. They arguably 147 00:07:53,199 --> 00:07:56,720 had a shaky start, but who did they play? Undefeated Miami, 148 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:02,439 undefeated anm The Irish defense sent has allowed twenty seven points. 149 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,439 Speaker 3: They beat up on Arkansas, Boise. 150 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: State, and NC State, And normally I am not at 151 00:08:07,279 --> 00:08:10,480 chalk eating weasel, but let's just be honest. I'm also 152 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,600 not gonna bet the underdog with fleas and I think 153 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,920 that is what the Trojans are here. So if I'm 154 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,680 gonna play it, as Teddy Covers likes to say, I'm 155 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,279 gonna lay it, you guys, are enjoying bet on It 156 00:08:22,319 --> 00:08:25,120 so far, Please give us that like, hit that subscribe button. 157 00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:26,759 Speaker 3: Jump in the comment sections. 158 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: I told Marco and VR going forward, we all have 159 00:08:29,519 --> 00:08:31,800 to jump in there so we can argue amongst ourselves. 160 00:08:31,959 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 3: We can agree with each other. 161 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: Let us know if you think we're right or wrong 162 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,480 about these early TV games. 163 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 3: VR. 164 00:08:38,799 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: Every single Sunday, you are in the steam room here 165 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,240 on the wager Talk YouTube channel and you're giving out 166 00:08:44,639 --> 00:08:46,919 up to the minute data. 167 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 3: You were giving up late plays. 168 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 1: You were saying, here's these major line moves, here's what 169 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,720 we need to be looking at. And on Wednesdays here 170 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,559 on bet on It in the college football edition, you 171 00:08:54,639 --> 00:08:56,799 let us know what these wise guys are doing early 172 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,720 in the week. I'm gonna start off with a question 173 00:08:58,799 --> 00:09:01,159 because I want the answer to it is. Well, Marco 174 00:09:01,279 --> 00:09:03,080 asked you kind of a bought this two way action, 175 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,120 so to speak. On a Friday night, gave Nebraska Minnesota. 176 00:09:07,399 --> 00:09:08,559 Can you start their please? 177 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:10,799 Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's actually the first game we're going to cover. 178 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,120 Nebraska open six and a half got slammed right away. 179 00:09:14,279 --> 00:09:17,440 They hit the seven and seven and a half. That's 180 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,000 a big, big play when you see them hit that 181 00:09:20,519 --> 00:09:23,840 through that key number that moved it up to eight 182 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:24,279 and a half. 183 00:09:24,399 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 2: Nine. 184 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,519 Speaker 5: That's when you started seeing the Minnesota money come in. 185 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,080 So we saw Minnesota yesterday plus nine plus eight and 186 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:35,720 a half, heavy steam on Minnesota after the Nebraska side 187 00:09:35,799 --> 00:09:39,919 got bt up. I personally like the group that bet 188 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,320 the Minnesota side more. They don't middle games much, they 189 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:45,039 don't scout money lines much. 190 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 2: They take more truer positions. 191 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,159 Speaker 5: So I think when this line got a little bit 192 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,399 too high, they stepped in and took the points with Minnesota. 193 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,519 Another Friday game that we're seeing dog Love UNC at 194 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,799 eleven and a half and ten and a half. Move 195 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,799 over to Saturday three thirty Miami, Ohio minus eleven and 196 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:04,720 a half minus twelve and twelve and a half. Pay 197 00:10:04,759 --> 00:10:07,720 attention to those that continue to move three thirty five 198 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,240 Old Dominion. Anytime Old Dominion's moving up to two to 199 00:10:11,279 --> 00:10:13,360 two and a half, it gets picked off. That's why 200 00:10:13,399 --> 00:10:15,279 it's sitting there at one and a half right now. 201 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,399 Three forty nine Georgia Tech. This is one of those 202 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,279 that I love to pay attention to the initial move 203 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,919 when the limits were low. Remember when they first pushed 204 00:10:23,919 --> 00:10:26,759 these up to some of these limits are like the nickel. Okay, 205 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,200 they dummied up the Georgia Tech line, so they dummied 206 00:10:30,279 --> 00:10:32,840 up Duke at two and a half to three. 207 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 2: That's when all that. 208 00:10:34,879 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 5: Georgia Tech's team came in At Georgia Tech plus three. 209 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,159 The piggybackers are taking to two and a half and two. 210 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,000 That's why it's sitting at where it is right now. 211 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:44,600 But that was a beautiful maneuver on the Georgia Tech 212 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,000 side to get that field goal. Three point fifty eight 213 00:10:47,279 --> 00:10:50,720 Syracuse plus eleven and a half plus eleven and under 214 00:10:50,879 --> 00:10:51,799 seems correlated. 215 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:52,879 Speaker 2: Lower scoring game. 216 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,519 Speaker 5: Eleven points seems like a lot three sixty one Central Michigan. 217 00:10:56,279 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 2: Plus six, five and a half and five. 218 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 5: Vanderbilt bringing that came up because it's another situation where 219 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,080 we're seeing two way sharp action and it makes sense. 220 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,320 First move was on Vanderbilt at minus one one and 221 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,480 a half two. When three popped up on the board, 222 00:11:10,639 --> 00:11:14,000 obviously it's a key number. Another group swooped in and 223 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,279 took LSU plus three. Shows you just how tight some 224 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,799 of these lines are. These are two groups that are 225 00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:23,120 both profitable long term. One sees value at minus one, 226 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,240 the other one sees value at plus three. Two completely 227 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:30,120 different pets on the same game. Uh Boise three seventy 228 00:11:30,159 --> 00:11:32,240 Bois minus ten and a half eleven, eleven and a 229 00:11:32,279 --> 00:11:34,360 half and twelve every half point increment. 230 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,759 Speaker 2: They didn't move it fast enough. Bois's getting hit. 231 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 5: UCLA minus two and a half and minus three laid 232 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,080 the three there against Maryland. 233 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 2: Wyoming four oh five. 234 00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:49,919 Speaker 5: This one, just like the uh Georgia tech love when 235 00:11:49,919 --> 00:11:52,480 I see this happen, got dummied up on the Air 236 00:11:52,519 --> 00:11:52,960 Force side. 237 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:53,879 Speaker 2: It was five and a half. 238 00:11:54,159 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 5: Bet it up with took probably a nickel bett get 239 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,720 at the six. That's when all that Wyoming steam came in. 240 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,279 Piggybackers are taking the five and the four and a half, 241 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,639 but the official move was at six and finally four 242 00:12:05,799 --> 00:12:09,519 fifteen USC plus eight and a half and eight that 243 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,679 got down to that key number didn't get to the 244 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,360 key number forgive me. They didn't wait for the key 245 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,759 number of seven on Notre Dame. Instead they came in 246 00:12:17,759 --> 00:12:19,879 and laid the seven and a half, eight, eight and 247 00:12:19,919 --> 00:12:23,600 a half nine on Notre Dame. So a lot of 248 00:12:23,639 --> 00:12:26,879 love on the Notre Dame side. That's so far what 249 00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:30,559 we have up until Wednesday. Pay attention tomorrow. That's when all. 250 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: Those totals get hit. 251 00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:35,879 Speaker 5: So Odds Logic screens should be up and you'll get 252 00:12:35,879 --> 00:12:38,000 a lot of total moves. 253 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:43,799 Speaker 1: To take advantage of absolutely Oddslogic dot Com backslash ace 254 00:12:43,919 --> 00:12:46,480 get you a free weeks trial. 255 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 3: You guys should look into it, even if it's only 256 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:49,159 for a week. 257 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,799 Speaker 1: It will change the way you bet and the way 258 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,440 you shop for lines. 259 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 3: All right, barking Dog time and would. 260 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,519 Speaker 1: Appear on the only one that didn't have a double 261 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,559 digit onderdog. And I looked really hard, and then I 262 00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:04,679 realized Marco had one that I liked, and then I 263 00:13:04,759 --> 00:13:06,120 realized VR had one that I. 264 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 3: Liked, and so well, I have the Chihuahua this week. 265 00:13:09,519 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: But Marco, you have the biggest underdog, so you getta 266 00:13:11,879 --> 00:13:12,960 go first. 267 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 3: Not gonna lie. 268 00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:16,039 Speaker 1: I scratched this went off on my list early in 269 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,919 the week, and then I thought, maybe Marco thinks I 270 00:13:18,919 --> 00:13:20,240 should be looking at it again. 271 00:13:20,519 --> 00:13:25,039 Speaker 3: Marco, tell me why you think Syracuse is live. Well. 272 00:13:25,159 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 4: Pitt made a change at quarterback two games back, and 273 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,440 it's paid huge dividends as Mason High School has led 274 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,120 Pitt to back to back wins. In his first start, 275 00:13:34,159 --> 00:13:36,399 he threw for three hundred and thirty one yards in 276 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,960 a forty eight to seven win. But beating Boston College, 277 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,399 you know that's not that impressive. They're not having a 278 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:45,799 good year. But last week they went to Florida State 279 00:13:46,039 --> 00:13:49,200 and maybe they caught a Florida State team that had 280 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,120 that hangover effect from losing a game the week before. 281 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,200 But they went in a shootout ten and a half 282 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,840 point underdog, and they beat Florida State on the road 283 00:13:58,919 --> 00:14:01,679 thirty four to thirty one, and he had another big 284 00:14:01,759 --> 00:14:05,600 day passing the football. Now you take a team second 285 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,080 week in a row on the road, going from an 286 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,360 underdog that won outright to now being a favorite on 287 00:14:11,399 --> 00:14:16,480 the road. Hey, that's something that I don't like. I 288 00:14:16,519 --> 00:14:19,200 love fading those type of teams. You want to fade 289 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,000 a fat and sassy road favorite, and that's what we've 290 00:14:22,039 --> 00:14:25,600 got here. Syracuse has been their own worst enemy in 291 00:14:25,639 --> 00:14:28,600 their last couple of games. They went into the bye 292 00:14:28,679 --> 00:14:32,440 week coming off two games in which they had six 293 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,960 turnovers in the last two games. You turn the ball 294 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,720 over that many times, you're gonna lose football games. But 295 00:14:38,759 --> 00:14:41,519 as I always say, teams that go into the bye 296 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,399 week on a bad note, generally are gonna come out 297 00:14:44,399 --> 00:14:47,720 of that bye week with a good performance, and I 298 00:14:47,759 --> 00:14:51,399 think given the extra week to prepare, couple that with 299 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,000 playing a fat and sassy PIT team, you've got the 300 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,919 makings of a very, very live underdog here. I'm gonna 301 00:14:58,919 --> 00:15:01,799 go ahead, and although Pit's putting up points, their defense 302 00:15:01,919 --> 00:15:04,600 is giving up points two. I'm not gonna lay points 303 00:15:04,639 --> 00:15:07,559 on the road with Pitt. Give me Syracuse. This one 304 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,240 should be a barn burner. Let's call it Syracuse thirty 305 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:14,279 one thirty woo. 306 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,559 Speaker 1: All right, VR, you are stepping in front of a 307 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,039 freight train, and I'm gonna do that in the Best 308 00:15:21,039 --> 00:15:21,639 Bat segment. 309 00:15:22,039 --> 00:15:24,399 Speaker 3: But this one is a real freight train. 310 00:15:24,519 --> 00:15:27,519 Speaker 1: This is a team that I picked right here on 311 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,399 the show twelve to one to win the Big twelve. 312 00:15:30,519 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: I feel like. 313 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: I'm sitting pretty but you think they're on upset alert 314 00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:34,039 this week? 315 00:15:34,519 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, and this is another one I released to my 316 00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:41,879 subscribers at plus ten four percent play on Arizona State 317 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:42,679 Listen week. 318 00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:44,399 Speaker 2: We could talk x's and o's and all. 319 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 5: The handicapping, but it's as simple as what I've been 320 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,039 repeating throughout the entire season so far. Take advantage of 321 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,600 that rank team based on the record that is not 322 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:00,000 as good as they appear. In Texas Tech another perfect 323 00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:02,919 example of that. They're six and oh. Guess what they 324 00:16:02,919 --> 00:16:05,440 should be six and oh. The only tough game they 325 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:09,279 had was against Utah, And based on that Utah result 326 00:16:09,679 --> 00:16:13,279 is why we're getting such a gift with Arizona State 327 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,919 because we have a common opponent in Utah. And just 328 00:16:17,039 --> 00:16:20,600 last week we saw Arizona State get blown out by Utah, 329 00:16:21,159 --> 00:16:24,200 and on the flip side, that was the biggest win 330 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,240 for Texas Tech. But if you compare what the line 331 00:16:27,639 --> 00:16:31,000 was for those games and you compare what this line is, 332 00:16:31,679 --> 00:16:35,080 you will notice there's been about a four plus point 333 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,679 adjustment on the Texas Tech side. And we know you 334 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,600 should never overreact to any single result. There's a lot 335 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,240 of randomness that could happen in this sixty minute football game, 336 00:16:45,559 --> 00:16:49,679 so that adjustment just isn't warranted. Why is Texas Tech 337 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,080 six and oh because they've had an easy schedule. In fact, 338 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,600 they've as far as difficulty goes, it's the fifty sixth 339 00:16:56,039 --> 00:16:59,360 toughest schedule in college football so far. So again, this 340 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,440 is the six and OHO team that should be six 341 00:17:01,519 --> 00:17:03,639 to zero. Now they're going to start to get tested, 342 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,039 and when you have a defense that's only thirty ninth 343 00:17:07,519 --> 00:17:11,160 in efficiency lane, double digits is a lot to ask for, 344 00:17:11,799 --> 00:17:14,880 even against an Arizona State offense, which isn't you know, 345 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,680 top ten or anything like that. 346 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:18,799 Speaker 2: But they are top. 347 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 5: Thirty defensively and we sold even against Utah. They did 348 00:17:24,039 --> 00:17:27,880 really good against the pass and it was the running 349 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,519 game that did the damage. 350 00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 2: Well, we know what Texas Tech does. It's an aerial saul. 351 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 5: They're decently balanced, but it's it's thirty air that they 352 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,720 do most of the damage. That's where I think Arizona 353 00:17:39,759 --> 00:17:43,680 State's defensive strengths lie. So there's a lot to like 354 00:17:43,839 --> 00:17:48,440 on the Arizona State side. Finally, Morton quarterback for Texas Tech, 355 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,720 not one hundred percent. That worries me a little bit. 356 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,839 That's why we're seeing this line drop. I would like 357 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,480 him to play, so there's not you know, that injured 358 00:17:58,559 --> 00:18:01,640 player that Marco teaches us about to take advantage of. 359 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 2: But yeah, I like Arizona State. Here. 360 00:18:04,799 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 5: Double digit was a gift eight and a half. I 361 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,279 would still bet it. I would just smaller bet because 362 00:18:10,319 --> 00:18:14,079 I think anything over seven is the right. 363 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 2: Side on Arizona State at home. 364 00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: Whoo, all right, I don't like to hear that from 365 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,680 my futures bet, but I would argue that Arizona State 366 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,319 at least was on my long list for this week, 367 00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:28,039 and another team that was on my long list. But 368 00:18:28,079 --> 00:18:30,880 I was a little hesitant because I was like, Okay, 369 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,279 are they gonna fire Billy Nape here? What is going 370 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:38,599 on in Gainesville? We've been hearing lots of different rumblings 371 00:18:38,599 --> 00:18:42,400 out of there, And as I mentioned earlier, the idea 372 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,960 of the barking dog segment is, Hey, we're gonna look 373 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,559 for teams that have a shot to win out right, 374 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,200 but ideally I don't think there should be. 375 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 3: A sweat for them to cover. 376 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,279 Speaker 1: Yet every single week, that's what I've been giving you, guys, 377 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,319 is an absolute, utter, painful barking dog. 378 00:18:58,839 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 3: So buckle up and be prepared for heartbreak. 379 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: Mississippi State plus eight and a half, and I know 380 00:19:03,759 --> 00:19:06,359 this has been one of the best ATS teams dating 381 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,079 back to the middle of last season, eleven and three 382 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,920 against the spread. They have outright wins this season over 383 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:16,000 Arizona State and took Tennessee to overtime as a seven 384 00:19:16,039 --> 00:19:18,000 and a half point dog just a few weeks ago. 385 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,240 I love this team because what do they do? They 386 00:19:20,319 --> 00:19:23,039 run the ball almost fifty eight percent of the time. 387 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,880 So when that ball is on the ground, that clock 388 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:31,440 keeps going, making points at a premium DJ Lagway can 389 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,799 he beat a team not named Texas? We're gonna find out. 390 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,720 He may also be good for a pick against this defense. 391 00:19:37,319 --> 00:19:40,240 That's right, take the better defense plus the points. You 392 00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:45,359 guys know, I'm a sucker for that situation, So give 393 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:46,799 me the plus eight and a half, and of course 394 00:19:47,079 --> 00:19:51,279 sprinkle just a little bit on that money line. Marco, 395 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,960 another dog that I liked on the money line, made 396 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:59,559 your sandwich game of the week, the Deli eighteen and 397 00:19:59,640 --> 00:19:59,880 the eighte. 398 00:20:00,279 --> 00:20:03,519 Speaker 3: Yeah, just cruising right along. Haven't had to be condemned 399 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:04,599 one time. 400 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 4: Yes, Delli, check out Marco's Delhi every week. We released 401 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:16,000 that on Thursday, late Thursday, and it's been good. We've 402 00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:18,599 had six weeks. We've had four winning weeks, one winning 403 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,599 week and one two and one week. And it depends. 404 00:20:23,039 --> 00:20:26,680 We graded the game as a push last week Missouri. 405 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,559 That was the push plus three, but that line was 406 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,359 three and a Half's were available everywhere, so I think 407 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,400 everybody got to the window and got a win on 408 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,359 that one, but check it out. It's free. We give 409 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,160 you games that were in consideration for this segment on 410 00:20:43,279 --> 00:20:46,279 bet on It, and then a few more. In the 411 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,319 NFL version, we've given you four college plays each week, 412 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,119 one NFL play. The NFL played another winner last week 413 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:57,079 with Carolina over the Cowboys. Now five and one on 414 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,559 the season with the NFL plays on the Deli. So 415 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,400 check that out for the sandwich this week here for 416 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,559 bet on It, we got a tasty one, Kelly. We're 417 00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:09,119 gonna go to South Carolina and this one is simple. 418 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,559 We've got Oklahoma's coming off the first loss of the season. 419 00:21:13,279 --> 00:21:16,119 They lost to Texas last week in the Red River Shootout. 420 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,319 We talk about it all the time, when a team 421 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,519 plays a big game, they come up short, they have 422 00:21:21,559 --> 00:21:24,519 a tendency they can lose that same game twice. They 423 00:21:24,519 --> 00:21:28,000 come out with that hangover effect, flat, whatever terminology you 424 00:21:28,039 --> 00:21:31,799 want to use. That is enough for me to start 425 00:21:31,839 --> 00:21:35,359 looking at fading Oklahoma. But what really seals the deal 426 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,680 for me in this game is look at what Oklahoma 427 00:21:38,759 --> 00:21:42,119 has on deck. You're coming off your big rivalry game 428 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,240 against Texas and next week you've got a top five 429 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,359 matchup against Old Miss. Now, obviously, if Old Miss loses 430 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,160 this week, they won't be in the top five. But 431 00:21:51,319 --> 00:21:53,880 you look at what's in front of you, and Old 432 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,960 Miss is one of the top teams in the country 433 00:21:56,279 --> 00:21:59,680 in the rankings. So talk about a sandwich game. You 434 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,640 go from Texas to play South Carolina and then you 435 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,880 got Mississippi on deck. Yeah, that is a monster sandwich. 436 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,279 If you look at South Carolina, they hummed tough last 437 00:22:11,319 --> 00:22:15,480 week with LSU. They lost twenty to ten. They probably 438 00:22:15,559 --> 00:22:19,839 deserved a better result in that game. They played well enough. 439 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,960 I think they could have covered that game easily depending 440 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,400 on that line dropped during the week. But I'm gonna 441 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,839 go ahead and take South Carolina here. I like this team. 442 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,440 They're gritty. I think they give Oklahoma a battle. Here, 443 00:22:33,799 --> 00:22:37,000 give me those points with South Carolina. I got them 444 00:22:37,039 --> 00:22:42,160 actually pulling an upset twenty three to twenty. Go game Cocks. 445 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,519 Speaker 1: Yeah, Marco, I just text our producer Lou and I said, hey, 446 00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:48,920 I'm so sorry because last week I did the same thing. 447 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:49,599 Speaker 3: I'm so sorry. 448 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,519 Speaker 1: You guys are gonna lose a heartbreaking fashion once again. 449 00:22:52,799 --> 00:22:53,960 But they're gonna get us that cover. 450 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 3: Marco. They owe it to us after last week. 451 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:58,799 Speaker 1: Before we get into best bats, I gotta tell you 452 00:22:58,839 --> 00:23:01,359 guys about flax pin. If you guys have never heard 453 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,319 about flexpicks, they give you the ultimate flexibility to access 454 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,119 the daily picks that you want from the experts that 455 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:08,599 you trust. 456 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,519 Speaker 3: First, you're gonna choose your handicapper. 457 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,279 Speaker 1: Then you're gonna get full access for the day, so 458 00:23:13,319 --> 00:23:15,799 you can plan ahead or go day by day. When 459 00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:19,240 you log in and make your pick schedule, keep in 460 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,359 mind anytime you can switch up your experts up until 461 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,000 the plays are released, and then of course you can 462 00:23:25,039 --> 00:23:26,920 skip days at your convenience. So if you have a 463 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,559 thirty day Flexpis package, it doesn't have to be used 464 00:23:29,599 --> 00:23:33,039 in thirty consecutive days right now thirty days, just two 465 00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:34,480 forty nine over at wager. 466 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 3: Talk dot com. 467 00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 1: And if you're a little shy and you just want 468 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,599 to try it out for three or seven days, you 469 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,400 can do that as well, or partner up for the 470 00:23:43,559 --> 00:23:48,000 entire year for fourteen ninety nine VR. Before we get 471 00:23:48,039 --> 00:23:50,720 into your best bet for this weekend, college football, let 472 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,599 everybody know what you have up over at wagertalk dot com. 473 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 5: Indeed, I have my college football package up with a 474 00:23:57,559 --> 00:24:00,839 five percent big move, my first five percent college football 475 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,519 in weeks currently number one in college football, up about 476 00:24:04,519 --> 00:24:07,759 one hundred units, only one losing week. There have been 477 00:24:07,799 --> 00:24:10,559 eight weeks of college football so far, won seven of 478 00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:13,559 oh's or seven weeks one six of oh's. Regardless, it's 479 00:24:13,559 --> 00:24:15,079 been a great college football season. 480 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 2: That's up. 481 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 5: There's about four plays already in that package. NFL just 482 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,319 released today the first two premiums. That package will be 483 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,880 up as well for Sunday's action. 484 00:24:26,039 --> 00:24:26,559 Speaker 2: Don't forget. 485 00:24:26,599 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 5: We're coming off two to oh sweep of five percent 486 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,839 big moves last week in the NFL. It was warranted 487 00:24:33,079 --> 00:24:37,079 and went seven to one on four percent, so running 488 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,119 really good in football. Those packages are up for Saturday 489 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,759 and Sunday, but don't forget throughout the week, coming in 490 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,200 off a four percent winner on the over in Liberty 491 00:24:45,279 --> 00:24:48,759 last night, those primetime games have been money. And of 492 00:24:48,759 --> 00:24:52,839 course I'll be in Vancouver for UFC Up there on Saturday, 493 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,039 so I'll have that card as well. Just a great, 494 00:24:55,319 --> 00:24:58,680 great time to jump on board Major League Baseball playoffs. 495 00:24:58,799 --> 00:25:01,640 We have the Seattle Mariner to win the AL for 496 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,960 forty units pending and then one hundred units pending on 497 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,240 Seattle to win the World Series. So it's a good, 498 00:25:08,279 --> 00:25:09,799 good couple weeks ahead for us. 499 00:25:10,279 --> 00:25:12,799 Speaker 1: Jump on board, all right, you've been doing well with 500 00:25:12,839 --> 00:25:15,720 these totals and you have another total best bet for 501 00:25:15,839 --> 00:25:16,880 us this week. 502 00:25:17,599 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'm gonna take advantage of It looks low 503 00:25:21,799 --> 00:25:24,119 based on a little bit of recency bias. What I 504 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,480 mean by that is you have a Maryland and UCLA 505 00:25:26,559 --> 00:25:29,799 team that are coming in off of high scoring games 506 00:25:30,039 --> 00:25:33,400 where both offenses were able to put over thirty points up. 507 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,000 So you're gonna see a little skewed total based on that. 508 00:25:37,079 --> 00:25:38,880 And that's exactly what we're looking at, because if you 509 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,599 look at Maryland's totals throughout the year, they've been low. 510 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,880 In fact, three of the last five totals for their 511 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,200 games were lined below fifty and the same thing with Ucla. 512 00:25:50,559 --> 00:25:53,440 In fact, two of their last three were lined below 513 00:25:53,519 --> 00:25:57,079 forty nine. So you see the adjustment to markets made 514 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,240 trying to correct itself off of that recency rest asshured 515 00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:06,240 the public's going to bet this total over. I like 516 00:26:06,319 --> 00:26:08,720 what I'm seeing out of the UCLA defense, one of 517 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:14,720 the best defenses in college football that's correct against one 518 00:26:14,759 --> 00:26:18,839 of the toughest schedules, thirteenth, toughest strength of schedule, and 519 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,480 a solid, solid defense getting better, getting better again. When 520 00:26:23,519 --> 00:26:25,279 you're a UCLA team, you're not going to be in 521 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,519 the top you know, twenty, but if you can make 522 00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:30,640 it into the top thirty or forty, you're doing pretty good. 523 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,279 And I think UCLA is doing exactly that. Maryland's a 524 00:26:33,319 --> 00:26:37,279 top thirty five defense as well. They've gotten a little 525 00:26:37,279 --> 00:26:40,200 bit lucky though with turnovers. I think they're the highest 526 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,920 positive turnover differential that turns into points, But that luck 527 00:26:45,279 --> 00:26:47,440 always is going to even out. I think they're plus 528 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,000 some ten in fumbles, like they've gotten really really lucky. 529 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,759 But here's what sticks out the most that UCLA points 530 00:26:55,799 --> 00:26:58,359 have come with their efficiency in the red zone. They've 531 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,359 converted on ninety five percent of red zone opportunities. Well, 532 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,359 they're going up against arguably one of the best red 533 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:13,240 zone defenses in college football in Maryland, who actually stops 534 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,319 seventy two percent of trips in the red zone from scoring. 535 00:27:17,599 --> 00:27:20,480 So it's the perfect storm to get a much lower 536 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:26,279 scoring game than this total reflex and anything below fifty 537 00:27:26,319 --> 00:27:29,880 one above fifty one, I think all for value, we're 538 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,559 looking at fifty two to fifty two and a halfs 539 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,279 right now, got. 540 00:27:33,079 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 2: To go under. 541 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,400 Speaker 3: All right, Marco, you also have a total. This is fine. 542 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: I like mixing it up here on a Wednesday afternoon, 543 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,400 but before you give us this winning total, please let 544 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,920 me know what you've got up at wagertalk dot com. 545 00:27:48,759 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, we got a special going for the rest 546 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,480 of the season. There's ten weeks left in twenty twenty five, 547 00:27:54,839 --> 00:27:57,480 and we've put together a package that's going to get 548 00:27:57,519 --> 00:28:00,880 you every play I release in every sport. Why is 549 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,960 that such a big deal? Well, next week the NBA starts. 550 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,759 Hockey's underway. They started last week. College basketball is just 551 00:28:08,839 --> 00:28:10,839 around the corner, and of course we've got college and 552 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,839 pro football. Since twenty twenty I'm the number one NBA 553 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,039 handicapper at wager Talk in money one. Since twenty twenty one, 554 00:28:19,079 --> 00:28:22,759 I'm the number one NHL handicapper in money one at 555 00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:26,839 wager Talk. We're number two in college and NFL the 556 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:31,599 last two seasons in football, So you're getting all of 557 00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:34,200 the major sports for the rest of the year. And 558 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,720 if you bought by the week, it's ninety nine dollars 559 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,720 a week. That would cost you nine hundred and ninety dollars. 560 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,079 We're going to give you the rest of twenty twenty 561 00:28:42,119 --> 00:28:46,720 five for four hundred and forty nine dollars. Join us. Now, 562 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,359 head over to wager Talk, go to my homepage. You'll 563 00:28:49,359 --> 00:28:52,880 be able to get that special. That's all sports, all plays, 564 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,720 including all of those big five percent plays. And we 565 00:28:55,799 --> 00:28:58,799 hit a five percent last week again, we had a 566 00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:01,799 five percent with Tampa Bay. They got the money against 567 00:29:01,799 --> 00:29:04,799 San Francisco, and we got another five percent coming this weekend. 568 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,160 No better time to jump on board for my total. 569 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,000 It hit my best bet, Kelly. We're gonna take a 570 00:29:12,039 --> 00:29:15,480 look at gonna stay close to home and look at 571 00:29:15,519 --> 00:29:19,480 the UNLV Boise State game. Now, this one's actually gonna 572 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,200 be in Boise UNOV will be traveling there. And when 573 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,559 you look at this game the first glance, and this 574 00:29:25,599 --> 00:29:29,920 is why you can't overreact to one week's results. But 575 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,720 people are gonna look at this game. They're gonna look 576 00:29:32,759 --> 00:29:36,640 and see UNLV was in a fifty one to forty 577 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,640 eight shootout last week in Boise State, was in a 578 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,559 forty one to twenty five blowout. In this total sixty 579 00:29:43,599 --> 00:29:45,480 two and a half. There's only one way for us 580 00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,400 to go. Go to the over in this one. No, 581 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,880 not so fast, guys. And the problem is this is 582 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,119 a game that basically is a playoff game. The winner 583 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,119 of this game is most likely the winner of the 584 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,000 Mountain West com Conference. And if that winner of the 585 00:30:02,039 --> 00:30:05,359 Mountain West Conference happens to be UNLV, they're probably going 586 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,319 to be undefeated because the rest of their schedule's pretty 587 00:30:08,359 --> 00:30:11,400 easy and that would put them in line to get 588 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:17,359 into the playoff Pitcher Boise State. We know their dominance 589 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,839 of UNLV over the years, and the reason their dominance 590 00:30:20,839 --> 00:30:24,400 has been their physicality. You look at last week's game 591 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,599 and that's the fifty one to forty eight shootout with UNLV. 592 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,839 That was a game we were all over air Force 593 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,440 and the team total in that game because this year 594 00:30:34,759 --> 00:30:39,680 air Force almost has unstoppable offense. We know how hard 595 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,160 it is to defend the option. Teams don't see it 596 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,440 that often, and then you've got to prepare for it 597 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:46,039 in one week. 598 00:30:46,079 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 3: It's tough to do. 599 00:30:47,279 --> 00:30:50,319 Speaker 4: But this year, not only do they have that offense 600 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,720 rolling with the option attack, they've got a legitimate passing 601 00:30:54,759 --> 00:30:57,839 game does air Force. So UNLV had no shot of 602 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,359 stopping air Force last week. Plus they had this game 603 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,680 one deck with Boise State. This will be a totally 604 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,920 different game play because Boise State is gonna play smash 605 00:31:08,039 --> 00:31:13,200 mouth football against UNLV. That's what's beat UNLV all these years. 606 00:31:13,359 --> 00:31:16,720 They're gonna stick to the formula plus with everything the 607 00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:20,000 implications of the winner of this game. They're gonna play 608 00:31:20,039 --> 00:31:22,319 the game a little close to the vest, not to 609 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,599 make an early mistake and fall behind. I love this 610 00:31:25,799 --> 00:31:28,920 total under sixty two and a half. We're getting a 611 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,880 premium number because of an overreaction. This game will be 612 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:37,079 played in the low fifties at best. In my opinion, 613 00:31:37,319 --> 00:31:41,440 go under sixty two and a half. UNLV Boise State 614 00:31:41,599 --> 00:31:42,799 is my best bet. 615 00:31:43,599 --> 00:31:44,039 Speaker 3: All right. 616 00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: And I have a best bet that I wanted to 617 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,359 put in the barking dog segment, and then I thought, well, 618 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,319 my barking dog's always in my parlay and I can't 619 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,559 use it Friday night game for my parlay. 620 00:31:54,359 --> 00:31:56,359 Speaker 3: So we're gonna use it as our best bets. 621 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,119 Speaker 1: Louisville, if you guys remember, plus seven fifty was my 622 00:31:59,319 --> 00:32:04,119 ACC champion from our college football preview show. Now that 623 00:32:04,279 --> 00:32:07,920 might not come to fruition, but I think the Cardinals 624 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,119 still have a shot at it. But prior to their bye, 625 00:32:11,319 --> 00:32:16,279 Louisville lost to Virginia and overtime and that probably derailed 626 00:32:16,279 --> 00:32:18,720 things a little bit. But speaking of derailing, we've got 627 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,680 in Miami freight train five and oh straight up, four 628 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,200 and one against the spread. 629 00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:23,559 Speaker 4: And. 630 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,279 Speaker 3: That was against top ten teams. 631 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 1: Maybe Notre Dame was a top ten team according to 632 00:32:31,279 --> 00:32:37,559 VR South Florida eh, top twenty five, maybe Florida in 633 00:32:37,599 --> 00:32:41,599 Florida State. Let's pump the brakes here. I know Louisville 634 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,519 has been beat up all season. They've had some several 635 00:32:44,599 --> 00:32:47,920 injury cluster injuries, specifically on the offense. But I do 636 00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,400 trust Jeff Brohm and his ability to drop a game 637 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,640 plan against Mario Chrystobal. I'm taking the points, thirteen and 638 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,200 a half of them on Friday night in Coral Gabriels, 639 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,680 where the road team has won and covered each of 640 00:33:00,759 --> 00:33:02,039 the last three meetings. 641 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 3: Do I think that they can spring the upset? As 642 00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:06,559 a matter of fact, I do so. 643 00:33:06,599 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 1: Don't forget to sprinkle just a little bit on that 644 00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,359 Louisville money line. All right, guys, we appreciate you hanging 645 00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:14,480 out with us every single week here on bet on It. 646 00:33:14,559 --> 00:33:18,240 Please hit that like button hit that subscribe. Make sure 647 00:33:18,279 --> 00:33:22,079 you guys are following VR and Marco on social media. 648 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,160 We are here for you every week, so jump in 649 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,400 the comments section. I am going to personally call both 650 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:29,960 of them this week and tell them they need to 651 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,519 reply to you one way or another. Even if I 652 00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:34,519 have to use a VR burner account because he's gonna 653 00:33:34,559 --> 00:33:36,799 be in Vancouver for the UFC. 654 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 3: We're gonna reply. So you guys, tell us what you 655 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:40,160 think about the show. 656 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,240 Speaker 1: Love it, hate it, agree with us, disagree with us, 657 00:33:43,599 --> 00:33:46,720 help us out because we're here for you. And of course, 658 00:33:46,759 --> 00:33:49,400 if you guys are looking for the NFL edition of 659 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,200 bet on It, it's going to be right here, and 660 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:56,240 the Mega show, NFL College Football, TNA Stock Watch, and 661 00:33:56,319 --> 00:33:58,640 Marco's Deli all together right there in one spot. 662 00:33:58,799 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 3: Until next week. Let's not on it