Speaker 1: So it turns out that we may have an opportunity
to find out if we can short an entire major
American city or state, because it appears that this guy
may well be the next mayor of New York Cities,
Johan Madame Mandami.
Speaker 2: Grocery prices are out of control. The cost of eggs
and milk has skyrocketed. Dumb stores are even using dynamic pricing,
jacking up the cost over the course of a day
depending on what they can get away with. It doesn't
need to be this way. I'm Zara Mandani and as mayor,
I will create a network of city owned grocery stores.
It's like a public option for produce. We will redirect
city funds from corporate supermarkets to city owned grocery stores
whose mission is lower prices, not price gouging.
Speaker 3: Oh Cuba awaits.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about this with the help of Visible gobisible
dot com. If you're a smaller medium sized business owner
and you don't know the difference between business credit and
personal credit, man that puts you family at risk. Website
is go visible dot com and thank you to God Almighty.
Speaker 4: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved but Big Pharma
technocrats in Tyran sabran Ware from the high mountains of
Free America. Here's the Emerald City exile Todd Herman.
Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these
are the times to which God has decided we shall live.
Zach Abraham, my friend, my brother Chief Investments or Bowarck
Capital Management joins us from his studios in Dubai or
I don't remember where, somewhere London, New York World.
Speaker 5: You know, let's cutter today, because yeah, I feel like
they've climbed up the astrology more lately.
Speaker 3: Good So, yeah, goodness, it's what's hot.
Speaker 1: Instead of the ways of the missiles. Just have that
request for you. I actually saw on your on your
on your Twitter show, on your X channel, and I
was pretty surprised for this. You're not excited by having
a guy who moved to our country seven years ago,
who's had about three gigs, including rapper and working for
his mom, a socialists Islamist running New York City. How
is it this doesn't excite you?
Speaker 3: So in my opinion, and I don't. I don't. I
don't think I need to be that self deprecating.
Speaker 5: So just generally speaking, this to me illustrates perfectly what
is wrong with the political system in our country today. Okay,
And the reason why I say that is, do New
Yorkers have a right and a reason to be frustrated
with leadership, especially as of late.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I don't think they blame themselves enough about who they pick.
But but here, here's here's the here's the part of
for us that I have. And to be fair, I
think that these kinds of mental blocks exist on both
sides of the political aisle, but this one on the
left is really frustrating. If you could provide me just
one example, one example of inputting socialist practices like that
and seeing it make a positive difference or change in
any way to prices paid by a consumer.
Speaker 3: I am all ears.
Speaker 5: And when I say I'm all ears, I don't mean
to attack this from an ideological position, right, but this
to me, having this debate about socialism and free markets,
it is the equivalent of flat earthers, right like it there.
Not only has it not given better, you know, prices
to consumers, it's been a disaster. And the reason it's
been a disaster is very very very simple. Government has
political motivations, businesses have economic and when you're trying to
get it right economically, it's hard.
Speaker 3: When you're not trying, it's impossible.
Speaker 5: And it's just it's just that simple, right, Like I
just sit there and go, well, I don't think so.
Speaker 3: And I'm like, well, it's sort of like gravity. You
don't have to believe in it. It believes in you. Yep,
that's fine, that's.
Speaker 1: That's that matter. Yep, it will exert that belief.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And it's just that That's where I look at
the aocs of the world and I'm like, you're doing
your constituents dirty, Like, like, I know, it doesn't I know,
it's not cool that your Ivy League cocktail parties you
get together at guys. But if you want prices lower,
free markets have to be the cornerstone of that system.
And he's, oh, dynamic pricing. You're the average grocery store
in this country averages two and a half to three
percent profit margins. It's the opposite of problem. What are
you talking about?
Speaker 3: And if if those government and if those grocery stores
that are run think of the practices that they've learned
over the last hundred years to try to maximize that
too and a half to three percent.
Speaker 2: You.
Speaker 5: I guarantee you any government deal you put into place
will result in higher prices and will be a money
losing entity.
Speaker 3: Mark it down at.
Speaker 1: Remember the Amtrak Hamburger example. And if you don't remember,
it's all to repeat it for you in seconds and
I'll show you AOC syced by this. Then I legitimately,
as not just your friend, but as your client, you
steward our money. I have a legitimate question about shorting
the city of New York if there's a way to
do that, or short the state of New York, because
I'm feeling that way. So we'll talk about this in
a second. There is an opportunity you have, and I'm like,
I admit something. There's a whole bunch of cool things
we talk about with Angel Studios. Sound of Freedom is cool.
This new movie King of Kings is cool, particularly for
kids and grandkids coming to Jesus. And it beat the
garbage out of Snow White, and that's cool. Their fan
curated shows are cool. At Angel, they're continuing to invest
in movies and TV shows that promote faith and family
values in for real and all that's cool. The two
free tickets you get to the theatrical releases. When you
join the Angel Studio Premium Guild member, you join as
a Premium Guild member. That's cool, that's amazing. Here's the
thing that I don't think everyone is sufficiently suxcited enough
about Angel Studio has made us the production arm not
funding it. Well, yeah, I mean we pay to be
Premium Studio members or Angel Studios Guild members. That's the
way we fund it. We vote that. This doesn't pretend
they have committed to make the movies. We thumbs up
to distribute them and promote them. Guys, we've complained enough
about Hollywood's Angel has opened the door walk through. It's
Angel dot com slash Todd again. Watch King of King's
animated feature of the Life of Jesus Christ, based upon
Charles dar Arwin's work The Lord of the Life of
Our Lord. He told that sorry of his kids two
free tickets to any theatrical release they make. Watch King
of Kings. Now stream the fan created shows and vote
on the movies that they promote to the public and release.
It is Angel dot com slash todd. Okay, so we've
talked about visual we talked about movies. Let's enjoy AOC
supporting a guy who moved to America seven years ago,
has had about three jobs, one was rapper, otherwise working
for his mama, and he may well be the next
mayor of New York City supporting Sobron.
Speaker 6: And we all support Sobron because supporting Zobron is a
vote for a New York for all of us. Make
sure you vote early June fourteenth, or you can vote
on election day June twenty fourth.
Speaker 1: So the endorsement of AOC A woman who pretended to
cry outside of migrant holding cells. It was a parking
lot theater enough, Zach. I have to ask you this,
I mean this legitimately. I am now speaking to you
as client Todd. Can I somehow use all the money
that you've shepherded, that you shepherd for us to short
New York? Is that possible?
Speaker 3: Yes? And no, you'll you'll get a kick out of
this funny you ask.
Speaker 5: Okay, Yeah, we were having a conversation this morning where
our analysts right now are looking at several companies that
are Florida based that have substantially large landholdings.
Speaker 3: And one of the things we're looking.
Speaker 7: Into, yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, So so one of the
things we're looking into is and look, I'm not saying
anybody s goo out and buy those, yeah, but literally
right along these practices because you're about ready to see
an exodus of a big part of their tax base
leaving the state.
Speaker 3: So have fun.
Speaker 1: Well, he's he's fervently anti Israel, and I think heat
borders on actual anti Semitism, being against Jewish people. I mean,
he's supports Hamas, he supports defunding the cops, he supports
the riots. So I don't know if I was a
Jewish person living there in a Islamus socialist who supports
Hamas and wants to defund the cops is going to
be mayor, I might take my businesses out of New York.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I mean you have to. And that's
why so many guys I know guys that have left.
I know several guys that will be leaving. And it's
you know, most of those guys are in the money
management business and that's by far the biggest driver of
tax receipts in that state and city.
Speaker 3: And okay, so they're they're moving to Miami.
Speaker 1: I mean, can we short the real estate markets? There
are the roll ups of that or the like funds
that are behind the really markets. I'm not kidding about
wanting to short the whole state. I mean, could that
ever be done?
Speaker 3: Noway?
Speaker 5: I mean technically you could, you could short their bonds,
but that gets into a really sticky scenario because you
never know when the Feds are going to step in,
you know what I mean, They're just do But but like
I said, I think that, uh, the biggest recipient from
this will be Miami specifically in Florida generally speaking. And
so I think that you know, Florida real estate kind
of kind of got out over its skis and pulled
back this This very well could provide the impetus to
push it the next leg forward. And and the other
thing I think people on the left are about ready
to figure out is that, like everything in this economy
that moves so much faster than it did at any
other time, this will be no exception.
Speaker 3: They're going to lose. And the reason for it is, Look.
Speaker 5: How much easier it is to move a firm today
than it was even thirty years ago.
Speaker 3: Right, you don't you don't have for the most part.
I mean, there's still some stuff that you got to keep.
Speaker 5: But you don't have the entire you know, floors of
buildings of physical records that you've got to move over, right,
it's everything. So it is so much easier in the
work at home age. I mean, like if I had
to move Bulward to Florida, we could have operations set
up in Florida and up and running by Monday of
next week. Yeah, you know, it's it's so much easier now.
And when you look at what that savings is going
to be, yeah, I mean it's it's the other thing
is property property prices. Right, if you had a bunch
of property holdings in New York, now would be a
great time to ring the register. So and like I said,
this is what's broken with our political system because people need.
Speaker 3: To wake up and go, guys, this.
Speaker 5: Is the period of time where what we need to
be doing here and and this might sound a little progressive,
but hear what I'm saying, and I'd encourage everybody. What
we need to be doing is we need to be
looking at everything and figuring out what parts work and
what parts don't. Right, And guys on the left, if
you have if you seriously want to achieve a lot
of the things that you say you want to achieve
for people and portance, there's you're never going to do
it with out free markets. You're never It's not gonna happen.
I'm just warning you, yeah.
Speaker 3: Right, like and you're just you're just not And.
Speaker 5: And the the the self flagulation, the self hate that
is just that is represented in these economic ideas.
Speaker 3: It's just astounding.
Speaker 5: Where you go, guys, why would you completely turn coat
on the most successful economic experience in the history of mankind?
Shouldn't regardless of what you learned in that ideological chamber
that we call college. Now, regardless of what you learned,
don't you think that we should look at the elements
that created and made possible the greatest economic power in
human history?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then and then look at New York itself.
I mean, I'm sitting here and I'm not Joe. If
I could short the city, i would because I know
Ruin's coming to this guy's mayor. But look at New
York itself. You can still barter there, like legit. You
can go into stores and you can barter. You're gonna
go buy a suit from a guy who want to
go buy a bespoke suit or custom made suit. You
can walk into a shop where the guy who's you know,
cutting up the fabric and measuring it, he's one of
the owners. And you can legit take a suit from
you know, fifteen hundred bucks down to eleven hundred bucks
if you agree to buy a bunch of ties. That
and that that built that city. You can walk down
a street in the Irish corn that's a Rish Cordiner
and you don't like this pot pie. There's this pot
pie over here, there's this pot roast over here. You
can compare those prices. Now with apps, you can do that.
All everything in New York is built around small going big.
And there are what you would think of as tiny,
little small businesses. And you get there and they're these delis,
and you walk in and they have a down they
have a downstairs and medium floor middle flour, and then
an upper floor which is actually a nice restaurant. You
talk to those families that used to be their apartments,
and over time they have bought and bought and bought,
and now they've got these like three layers of businesses there.
And everything in New York that works has been based
on this. I forgot to pay this off he talked
about the government grocery stores. Do you know the Amtrak
hamburger story.
Speaker 3: I remember it. I don't remember the specifics, but I
know what you're talking about. Okay.
Speaker 1: So if you've written Amtrak, they used to sell hamburgers, okay,
and maybe they still didn't written in a while. So
they were microwave hamburgers. They pop them in the plastic
and they cook them up, and frankly, in terms of chemicals,
made the taste like food out of a microwave. They're
not as bad as the stuff that we use as kids,
the easy baked stuff you'd eat. Okay, So just do it.
The defense. Those hamburgers were I think fifteen dollars and
they lost money. They lost money at least nine Bucks
and they lost money. Now, I want you to think
of this. Outside of both terminals in New York, in
Grand Central and in Washington, d C. Union Station, there
are literally Zach McDonald's next to all the train stops
for those trains. You can go. What does I mean
back in the day fifteen bucks bought you four or
five hamburgers. With McDonald's. They lost money on every single hamburger,
and they continued to sell them. And I kid you
not when I tell you that one of the defenses
of this was they may lose money on the Hamburgers,
but they're making it up in volume.
Speaker 3: Yes, well, well, well I understand.
Speaker 5: I mean, look, if you think, if you think government
run grocery stores and the answer to high food costs
in New York, you would think you would be that
stupid to believe that.
Speaker 1: Right, right, right, right. And the thing is, and this
is the thing that people you're making the point that
businesses seek profit, government seeks power. So when they come together,
guess whose product is in the government run grocery store.
It's the guy who had the Way of Greece and
the skids. All right. That's New York, up the street,
up up North Canada. You're aware, you and I've talked
about central bank, digital currency, et cetera. There's two things
I want to compare. Bitcoin jumped to one hundred and
five thousand dollars all right this week, And as I
look at that, I remember the I have it at home.
I remember the discussion with my wife. I want to
spend fifty thousand dollars in bitcoin two weeks effort to launching.
My wife said nah, I'm just mentally doing the math.
Speaker 3: Don't do it.
Speaker 1: I would have had fifty thousand bitcoins.
Speaker 3: Okay. Let me, let me, let me, let me, let me.
Let me make you feel better about it, right, Okay?
And yeah, because there's a guy that handed his money,
I could literally do this all day long.
Speaker 5: Okay, and I and I specifically, and I've told you
the story before it.
Speaker 3: But for those that don't know, yeah, I've got one
that's worse.
Speaker 5: The day that it launched, Yeah, the day that it
had its first transaction, a guy I bought a pizza
I think for about sixty five bitcoin.
Speaker 2: Yay.
Speaker 3: I called my uncle who was he now works with me,
but he was.
Speaker 5: Running a money management firm down in Panama. And I
said to him, I go, have you heard about this
bitcoin thing? And he goes no, And I go, turn
on your TV. This thing is a shot across the
bow at all Fiat currency, this is what I said.
And I said to him, I go, this is the
kind of thing you throw five grand at and put
in your dresser drawer. Now, the reason I said that
is because there's a there's a it's a phrase in
our business with throw it in the dresser drawer means
just buy it, hold it forever, and just forget about it, right,
just a flyer, right, Okay. Had I done that with
at that time, bitcoin was trading just a touch below
a dollar, so I would add five thousand bitcoin. Now
here's why I said don't do it, beacause you never
would have held it, and I wouldn't have either. I
would have cashed it in once I was up, once
it was worth five hundred grand. My five grand had
become five hundred grand, I would have sold it.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 1: But I'm looking at the math here, which she told
me not to do. Let's see five two five zero
zero zero zero, probably like zero five billion. I would
have five billion dollars.
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably, Yeah.
Speaker 5: It's it's the best. It's the best performing investment of
all times. So there's no other investment that has grown
that big that fast.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not going to think about the fact that
I had the money. This was in the days of
of of of money just pouring. Okay, So I'm gonna
forget that. But in fact, actually call my wife real
quick because we don't keep grievances. I'll take okay. So no,
I mean she was why it was. It was a
smart thing to do. And gosh knows, I've made my mistakes.
I've I've done much more harm to our family than
she has. All Right, Mark Carney, this is a clip
and it has Carne in it and a bunch of
other globalists, people who seek our control. I want you
to hear the way Mark Carney pitches something to us.
And then let's compare this a bitcoin. Here in just
a second, Zach, before Zach, here's that. I'm going to
force him to hear this. I told you that I
have insulin resistance, right, Okay, you might too. I'm telling
you that there are really, really in shape people who
have insulin resistance. So when I found this out, and
I remember, I remember the physicality of this moment because
I'm sitting there all tall and proud and in Doc
Jen's office, and oh, your kidney functioning is good, your
filtering is good, cholesterol is good, this soul looks good.
Free testosterone is good. However, you know that when you
get that from your hormone doctor. However, and then she
turned her computer to me, see you, let me find
the markers you have insulin resistance. And then she looked
at me, and I swear she was a little bit
glib insulin resistance, said kind of a thrill in her face,
like you got something wrong. So we talked about some cures,
more plants, more fiber, and then I finally let the
people at Bachama just win the day. It wasn't me
because I pulled out of my bag burbering breakthrough. Here's
what I have for free. I pay them for the
rest of their stuff. This is a sample, So I've
been using this two tablets before every meal, and this
settles out blood sugar issues, like it encourages the insulin
instant levels to stay more sounds, it encourages the proper
metabolism of carbohydrates, It evens out mood issues. And one
of the things it also does is increases blood sugar
uptake into the muscles instead of the fat cells. Because
that whole thing about insulin resistance, that's an on ramp
to type two diabetes and on ramp. I don't want
to walk, nor do you, So go maximize your own metabolism.
Go to boptimizers dot com slash Todd use promo codad
to get temper sent off all their products, starting with
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diabetes bobtimizers dot com slash Todd promo code Todd. Here's
Mark Carney, the dictator of Canada. Listen closely to this, Zach,
because man does he have on an offer for us?
And it's all voluntary.
Speaker 8: We're developing through technology and ability for consumers to measure
their own carbon footprint.
Speaker 1: What does that mean?
Speaker 8: That's where are they traveling, How are they traveling, what
are they eating? What are they consuming on the platform?
So individual carbon footprint tracker.
Speaker 1: That's that's but you okay.
Speaker 4: I.
Speaker 3: Can't.
Speaker 5: I just look, I can't stand this piece of garbage.
And the reason I can't stand him is I do
not believe him for a second. I do not believe
that he believes this. This is garbage and CARNEYE is garbageage.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what I really think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so garbage. Wait wait, you don't think he okay,
I don't think he believes he's a climate catastrophe.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 1: I don't believe that.
Speaker 5: No, no, but he is a globalist looking for more
control over. He loves the idea be able to freeze
Trucker's Bank accounts.
Speaker 3: This guy is all about that. He is he is
klau Schwab World Economic Forum, globalist all the way.
Speaker 5: And you heard him say that we seek to increase
our ties with our European Why why the European brethren
that you talk about have a worst greenhouse gas emission
is percentage of their.
Speaker 3: Population than we do. What are you talking about?
Speaker 5: You want to tie yourself to the most inefficient, unproductive
economies on the face of the earth.
Speaker 3: Good job, Mark, good job. No, you want to consolidate power.
That's what you're all about. How is it?
Speaker 1: And you've run more in these circles than I have.
I have run a little bit in the DC circles.
I'm never Davos, but the advertising awards, dinners and that
sort of stratosphere for a little while, and a few
Hollywood dinners and the cocaine merrors. And I never forartook
praise God stopping me from that. I never had any
interest in that. Frankly, so I've seen some of that.
I've never run like you have in finance. Okay, that
you're capitalists. Did that for a while, raise some money, sure,
with some partners meetings, Sure, Okay, some LP meetings okay,
but never like you. How is it that people here
think that all these systems they're going to build, they're
always going to be the ones on top. Do they
not understand that their second, third, fourth, and fifth to
the big, big players. Mark Carney thinks he's a player.
I mean in relation to the people who truly want
to have these control mechanisms. Mark Carney ain't no play
you no.
Speaker 5: And the only the only way he's even allowed into
the room is if he does what he's currently doing right,
like towing the party line. And like you said, he's
not going to be a shot caller, but he'll be
able to be in the room. People need to understand something,
because it is it is decidedly different.
Speaker 3: I think that part of.
Speaker 5: That finance circle is the vast majority of those guys
come from blue blood backgrounds and go to you know,
the Ivy league schools and all, and what you realize
when you're around them, especially now, Look, there's plenty of
guys that come from that that aren't like this, but
I'm just speaking for the majority. And once they realize that,
you're sort of an anomaly.
Speaker 3: And what I mean by that.
Speaker 5: Is, well, you didn't go to the schools that we
didn't grow up in the in the circles that we did.
But somehow you're still a smart guy, so we're going
to let you in the room. Right, Yes, it's sort
of this backhanded compliment, right yes.
Speaker 3: And what people.
Speaker 5: Don't understand is if you want to talk about something
that parallels with the cast system in India, right, it's
that because these people truly believe that they are in
a different class, They truly believe that no matter what happens,
they will always be at the top of the heap
that they're and I would say, looking at the last
especially thirty years in American history, I understand the reason
why they believe that. They truly see uh In a
lot of ways, it's much like the Soviet Union was, right,
we've got the polut Bureau, and we've got the you know,
we've got the rest of them, We've got the we
got the plebeians.
Speaker 3: We've got the proletariat.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 5: The term terminology they use the time, that's the way
they see it. And they think that the common man
is in the way of them fixing their goals or
fixing all these problems. And if the average guy knew
the disdain that these people have for him, I think
they would see it differently. And this whole climate thing,
you know, a perfect undressing of this is just go
look at the interview that Rogan did just the other
day with Bernie Sanders, meaning the I don't really I
think that there are a lot of people that believe
the climate hysteria, and I think the people that actually
believe it are a much larger percentage. But it's it
is the oddest thing because you see these guys jump
to conclusions where you look at them and go, guys,
I'm sorry, man, it could be a bigger problem than
I'm giving it credit for. But what you're saying, it
just doesn't fit the data we've got.
Speaker 3: It's just not accurate. I don't know what to tell you.
Speaker 5: And then if you put the context, you know, if
you go look at the last two three thousand years
of temperature, you might have to go back further than that,
and you look at where we currently are, we're at
the very low end of the scale. So and look,
I'm not saying man doesn't play a part. I personally
think we probably play somewhat of a role. But I
think it's very much on the margins meaning if a
couple meaning if a couple of these factors go this way,
I almost think it doesn't matter what we do, you
know what I mean, like like.
Speaker 3: You know, hotter or colder?
Speaker 5: Now, can we have an impact? I don't find it
implausible that we have some impact. I just think it's
been way overstated.
Speaker 1: There's no doubt.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's ridiculous.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: I was just thinking of CARNEYE and that question. You know,
does he really think he a player? Do you remember
the movie Colors, Yeah, Robert Duvall Sean Penn. Sean Penn
plays a young cop. He's excited to go out and
crack heads and go after the gangs. Devall's been there
a long time. Sean Penn is almost sort of a gangster.
Is the way they're playing this off is he likes
to crack heads, like I said, And he ends up
dating a young woman who comes from a gangster background,
from the neighborhoods the Bodrios. And at one point he
goes over to pick her up for a date and
he's not in his colors, he's not in uniform, and
the guy's in the bodyo. Now like hey man, you're
not on work. Now you think we're gonna be yes, sir, No,
sir while you're here. No, no things are changed. Now
you're just a guy and all that swagger he thought
like he earns. No, it's gone. No one there is afraid.
No one there's intimidated. And I would like to be there.
I don't want this happen. I mean, we know God
wins in the end, but we also know there's going
to be the fake players, like the anti Christ and
the lawless one. I kind of like to be there
when Mark when that shift happens. They gained the control
they need. They don't need Mark Carney anymore. I would
like to be there when Mark Karney walks up at an
event to Bill Gates says hi Bill Mark Carney, and
Bill goes who, Sorry, I don't remember any Mark Karney.
Have a good day. And So one of the things
about culture and it has to do with fist fighting.
And I'll share this with you in just a second,
because I've done like you've done, but you were talking
about the difference in culture. I'll share this to the second.
Sometimes there's a fist fight between you and your bank.
Right I'm in one right now with my bank. I
love the people at my bank. I want to be clear.
They're good people. They're super good at knowing your names.
In fact, the other day the manager there went way
out of his way to help my daughter, who is
an up and coming artist. And I don't want to
leave that bank. But they let something happen that's really bad.
I don't blame them for this though. When I started
talking about corporate credit, man, they were on it. Here's
the forums, fill this out. Let's get you going on
the corporate credit. Then I had a discussion with a
cat named Brian mckechney, and he's a good friend of Zach.
Zach and he went to college together. And mckeckney taught
me the difference between corporate credit and personal credit. And
my business debit card says my business name on it,
but it's not business credits, and the difference. Not knowing
the difference, guys, this can ruin you. Okay, not knowing
the difference between personal credit and corporate credit can ruin
you in an all likelihood. If you're a smaller medium
sized business owner, in all likelihood you are operating in
personal credit, so your business is unfundable. Largely unless it's
from your personal credit, mortgaging your house. If God forbid
you make a mistake, they can purse your corporate veil
like that, go after your personal assets like that. But
Visible can address this in seven easy steps. There's a
few things you do yourself online. Because funny thing, Brian's
not in the business of opening credit in your name,
the name of your business. He'll show you how it's done,
and I'll make you a absolute guarantee take him up
on a free nablgation consultation phone call. My guarantee you
is you're going to learn something. And at the end
of the call, when this all locks in, it makes
sense that you need to do this. Commit to the program.
A lot of people want to put this off. You've
put it off too long and you're at risk. It's
here's the website. It's go Visible g O B I
Z A B L E dot com. So, Zach, we're
talking about the difference in culture and we'll get to
the big beautiful bill here and Biden, this is another
I might just skip all that actually and talk about Yeah, no,
let's talk about Steve Forbes going after the FED. Let's
talk that here. Just a second. So I was in
the car riding around with a guy who went to
let's see Stamford, Brown and Harvard. Okay, so went to
some colleges and instantly dummy back in the day when
those colleges offered something. Instantly a kind man and the
most honest non Christian I've ever known, and I mean
it so honest. He came in. We were staying at
the Double Tree Suites by the airport in San Francisco.
He hadn't eaten all day. He's taken us out for pitches,
and he goes, man, I'm really hungry. I go here, John,
just use my card, Just go up and get breakfast.
And he goes, okay, is it a buffet? I go yeah.
He took my room keep for a second. He goes, wait,
have you eaten anything? I said, I had two eggs.
Oh no, I can't. He wouldn't go up and get
like a buffet breakfast with my hotel key. He was
that honest, right, Oh wow? And I said, if I
go get some will you eat the stuff I get
if you're genuinely not going to eat it? So is
that sort of guy. We're driving around and we're just
telling stories between a meeting and I talked about this
threat one of my family members got a female family
member was threatened for real, and I couldn't stop it
with words, so I stopped it with physical actions. And
here's what he said. Like driving, he slowed the car
to the side of the roads by San Hill. Ready
his weight. You engaged in fisticuffs. He was stunned. I
go fisticuffs. He goes fisticuffs. Okay, that's not a word.
I learned later it's a word. Secondly, yeah, it's a
close family member. I wow. That puts a whole new
spin on how I look at you. You're a man
in your early forties. You've you played football, I be
League football. You never had fisticuffs. It's it's a different,
different world. Steve Forbes, he posted this. It's an article
the FED is stonewalling rate cuts, not because of data,
but because it resents Trump. Jerome Powe's petty resistance to
rate cuts is hurting the economy. Time for a dog
style over hall and a FED that puts sound money
over politics. And this is a bit of the articles
that he wrote, the proof of the Federal Reserve's animates
towards President Trump, is that the Central Bank cut interest
rates twice before the presidential election, which would presumably have
helped Democrats. It has resisted cutting rates since the beginning
of Trump's second term, even though inflation is lower than
it was last year. This is deeply disturbing, hurt the
economy because you loaw the commander in chief letting personal snits.
See there's an ivy leaguer snit letting personval snits over
the president's verbal broadsides guide monetary policy is shocking enough,
but a deeper problem with than the Federal Reserve is
the rock solid belief that it must manipulate economic activity
control inflation. So do you get a sense that this
is ideological or personal between Powell and President Trump?
Speaker 5: So the one thing, and I hope they'll your listeners
know this, but the one thing you're gonna get from
me is the truth, or is close to the truth,
or as close to the truth as I can possibly give.
Speaker 3: Yeap, And I'm not just gonna panther the crowd.
Speaker 1: Okay, hold on, lawyer, Wait, your lawyer's mind, you saving
you're reading.
Speaker 3: So so I don't, I don't.
Speaker 5: I don't entirely agree with Forbes' assertion, and I don't,
and I base that just solely on data.
Speaker 3: Okay, So let me let me just say this.
Speaker 5: I think that this is one of those issues that,
regardless of which side of the of the argument you
are on, I think you can cite several data points
that are very compelling that back you up. Okay, I
think the FED could justify a small rate cut.
Speaker 3: I do not.
Speaker 5: Look Trump's talking about one hundred and one hundred and
fifty bases points of cuts. There's just that's just not.
Speaker 3: In the data.
Speaker 5: And when you look at the history of inflation, like
I've said before, especially in the United States, but virtually everywhere,
inflation has always been somewhat of a grease fire, meaning
you think you've got it put out, and it pops
up again. We saw it several times in the seventies,
several times in the eighties. Do I think the FED
could have justified another twenty five or potentially even fifty
basis points of cuts. Yes, But there is another thing
that the FED is concerned about, and I think they're
right to be concerned about it. Now, you're not going
to hear them say this, And the reason you're not
going to hear them say this is I think if
they did say it, it would probably only make the issue worse.
The FED wants to avoid a Liz Trust moment, Okay,
They do not want to lose control of the back
end of the curve. And what I mean by that is, okay,
when the Fed issues debt, okay, they are issuing. I
believe the majority of the bills that they have issued
over the last three years have been at the shorter end,
and so mostly two year bills.
Speaker 3: All right. When the fedadjusts interest rates, the only thing
that it really controls is the very front end of
the curve, or what we refer to as the thirty
day SEC yield.
Speaker 5: Okay, when we look at the interest rate on the tenure,
the twenty year or the thirty year, those interest rates
are determined solely by the market. Well, when your bonds
start selling off along with your currency, because the global
monetary system has concerns about your financial viability, raising rates
can and has had the exact opposite reaction, because as
you lower rates, it actually makes borrowing more money more
affordable and can often be seen as a step in
the wrong direction in terms of fiscal responsibility. So You
could absolutely see a scenario where the FED cut rates.
Speaker 3: They yield on the two.
Speaker 5: Year treasury went down as desired, but people went, uh oh,
that means more spendings coming our way, So we're going
to sell off a thirty year in my opinion, Now,
do I know for a fact that would happen.
Speaker 3: No, But that's what we saw happen in Britain. Right.
Speaker 5: The other thing that we've seen is the last several
times the FED launch QE, rates on the back end
went up, not not the entire time, but initially. So look,
is it possible that the reason that the Fed has
not cut an additional twenty five to fifty basis points?
Speaker 3: Is it political? Absolutely possible? Okay. The other side of
it is the thing that I.
Speaker 5: Think that they're far more worried about about having rates
twenty five or fifty basis points higher is if they
lose control of the back end of the curve.
Speaker 3: So look, I just I think it is it is possible.
Speaker 5: The one thing I will say is that I think
you could justify a twenty five basis point cut just
looking at the data. I think that you could justify
not doing a twenty five basis point cut because of
the back end of the curve issue that I was
just telling you about. But yeah, I don't think it.
It absolutely could be a political component to it. But
to look at that situation and say that this is
just pure politics, like you're not paying attention to what
just happened in the UK, right, and for those that
didn't know about that, that ushered her out of power
in three weeks, yep, right, gone, right, Okay, when you
look at the problems that that could cause in our economy,
Let's say Trump's right, Let's say interest rates are fifty
to one hundred basis points higher, losing the control of
the back.
Speaker 3: End of the curve would be a much bigger problem.
Speaker 1: Yeah right, yep, yep, so yep, okay, makes sense. You're
doing a webinar coming up called halftime, and clearly we're
halfway through the year. So I want you just to
give us. I don't want you to give away the
webinar because now you guys are still working on other
contents on this, et cetera. But I would like you
to check us, give us a check up halfway through
this year fiscally, and maybe some things you guys are
looking at for the next part of this year. We
do this in just a second. There is a delightful,
delightful smell that I have in the morning. Wait, that
came out wrong.
Speaker 4: Not me.
Speaker 1: I don't personally have it, because I don't smell delightful
in the morning. But I do have my bone frog
coffee set to start dripping at let's see. It starts
set four o'clock in the morning, and it is such
a satisyox is shaking his head. Oh you wait till
you get our age, and you can't sleep past four,
so I can hear it in there. And then when
I walk in and I smell the frog, and no,
it's a bone frog, and I can go drink that.
My life with coffee has changed, I admit it. I
was a guy who didn't drink coffee for taste. I
didn't like the way it tastes. But there's a couple
of different things that happened. I take the coffee, and
I add and forgive me all my dairy farming friends,
I put oat juice into it. Okay, I don't know why.
I like the taste of it. When I'm on the road,
I'll have heavy cream with my bone frog. But at home.
I can't do the cows. I taste that I sit
and I if I'm being good, I read the Bible
and I take that in together. And then there's something
else that happens to me. I reflect upon the fact
that every time I do this, I'm giving money to
the Navy Seal Foundation. Ten percent of proceeds goes to
the Navy Seal Foundation. I personally, because I know Tim Krookshank,
the founder and CEO Bone Frog. He's become a very
good friend of mine. He's retired Navy Seal. He was
a medic with the Seal Teams. I personally think about
the struggles that Tim has gone through trying to save
his wife's life from cancer, extending her life for twenty years.
I reflect on that. I often look at the bag
and it says on God Country Team, and I know
that's real for Tim, and so I kind of just
give thanks. Now, look, there's a personal component to this
to me because I know Tim. You don't yet, although
you might get to know him. He puts a note.
Almost ninety percent of the time there's a personal note
from Tim in the bag. And if he screws something
up in an order don't be surprised when you get
free coffee and an apology note from Tim. In fact,
I've got emails to this effect. A lady's order was
a couple of days late, and she had this big
event and she was getting worried. So Tim personally FedEx
to it overnight, and then her regular order showed up
with an apology from Tim on the house. This is
who he is. Bonefrog Coffee dot com slash Todd. Use
promo cod Tod to get tempercent off your first purchase
fifteen percent off subscription coffee Bonefrogffee dot com slash Todd. Zach,
we are coming up on the midpoint of June. You're
doing this halftime live free webinar. What do you grade
the economy halfway through? And what are you looking at
on the back end.
Speaker 3: Of this year?
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 5: Right now, if you look at it in a snapshot
right now, it's very noisy, meaning I see several things
that are very concerning.
Speaker 3: Housing data continues to deteriorate.
Speaker 5: That shouldn't be a that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
Reason why you've got to keep an eye on that
is whenever you have seen a substantial jump in unemployment.
Construction jobs always lead the way, and it's pretty easy
to see why that's a key, right, Like, when you
think about building homes, think about how many parts of
the economy that touches, right, Think about the concrete, think
about the wood products, appliances, carpet paint, oil, right, roofing, tar, paper, nails, right,
so many, so many different parts. Yeah, so that that
is certainly concerning. Okay, when you look at trends of
consumer spending, that is beginning to look concerning too. People
like it's all positive, and I'm like, well, yeah, of
course it is. It's an inflationary environment, right, so meaning
you know, yeah, you'd expect an inflationary environment, consumer spending
will look like it's rising.
Speaker 3: That's always a good thing.
Speaker 5: Conversely, if you look over at the average Americans balance sheet,
because you're still at record home prices and record stock valuations,
personal balance sheets look really good. So you know you've
got increasing delinquencies. As far as loans go, you've got
another concern coming out as a whole swath and wave
of student loans is coming back out of being deferred,
so they're gonna have to start making payments on those. Initially,
there's there's many things to be concerned about. But I
think in the in the larger picture, if we focus
too myopically on that, I think we're missing the forest
for the trees. Meaning we have just come out of
a of an economic cycle, a fifteen year streak unlike
any that we have ever seen that has watched the
United States, in my opinion, mostly fueled off some incredible
some incredible innovation in the private markets, but then largely
fueled off artificially low interest rates. And then and look,
anytime you see a government go from seventy percent debt
to GDP up to one hundred and thirty percent, you
would expect to see.
Speaker 3: Their stock market go up.
Speaker 5: Okay, So, and then you've kind of reached this point
where the US stock market has become seventy percent of
global stock market value in totality. Right, So our economy
makes up twenty percent of economic output, our stock market
makes of seventy percent of stock market valuation. I think
what happens here in the next six to twelve months
isn't what we should be focused on the most. I
think what we should be focused on is what's going
to happen over the next five to ten years.
Speaker 3: And I think when you look at it through.
Speaker 5: That lens, just as you have had a once in
a lifetime generational type run over the last fifteen years
for US assets, especially when compared to the rest of
the world, I think you're about ready to see some
type of counterbalance to that, right.
Speaker 3: A mean reversion. And when you look.
Speaker 5: At the valuation of so many of these countries, and
so many of these countries that are now quickly looking
when you show me, like, let's look at.
Speaker 3: For instance, at Brazil.
Speaker 5: Okay, people be like, Zach, you're worried about debt and
deficits in the United States.
Speaker 3: What about Brazil. You're worried about inflation in the United States.
What about Brazil? Okay, Brazil's running it.
Speaker 5: I think, what are they at ten eleven percent deficits? Okay,
but look at where they're at in terms of there
are so many things Brazil can do if they had
competent leadership to drastically improve economic efficiency. They have so
many levers they can pull to juice their economy. They
have so much untapped human capital, they have so much
untapped natural resources. They've got so many different ways, and
it appears is politically, like a lot of these Latin
American countries, they're starting to realize that. They're like, look,
we've gone down the socialist road. It hasn't helped, it's
made it worse. So they're almost they're almost pivoting right
out of necessity. Right then, you go look at valuations
in that part of the world. I'll give you an example.
If we look at the average bank in the United
States right now. Now I'm not telling you to go
out and get in Latin American banks, but I'm just
using the example. You're probably paying somewhere between seventeen to
twenty times earnings on that bank. You're probably getting maybe
a two to and a half percent dividend. Okay, Now
that bank has relatively little growth. You know, we know
all the stuff about that. We just found a very reputable,
long standing South American bank whose stock happens to trade
on the New York Stock Exchange.
Speaker 3: It's looking at double digit revenue growth.
Speaker 5: They're going to be a main financier of probably most
stuff that goes on in Latin America. And they're trading
at four times earnings paying a fourteen percent dividend. Last
year they had so much excess cash flow, they issued
a special dividend. So last year alone, in dividend payments
you received twenty two percent. Okay, yeah, like valuation and dividend.
Where you're sitting there looking at this and going, what's
the catch. The catch is that is how US markets
got to the point they are. Meaning people need to
see the world as it is. Right, we think about, oh,
that's what that company's worth. No, worth is all in
public markets. It's all about where money's flowing. If seventy
percent of the money around the world flows into the
United States, you know simultaneously that most markets around the
world are going to be relatively or are going to
be very undervalued on a comparable basis.
Speaker 3: If that goes on for.
Speaker 5: Fifteen years, you know you expect to see his historic
valuation spreads.
Speaker 3: And that's where we're seeing.
Speaker 5: So we're trying to tell people, listen, guys, there are
other games in town. Does that mean we're just selling
US assets written large? No, but we need to go out.
Speaker 3: To a more diversified scenario. Right.
Speaker 5: Another thing, I'd look at people and be like, how
much exposure do you have to gold or gold miners.
Speaker 3: They're like, well, they're not good. And I'm like, hey, well,
let me tell you a secret.
Speaker 5: Okay, barring something unforeseen or exogenous threats, which exists to
all markets at all times. Are you aware that gold
miners will be the most profitable sector of the US
markets this year?
Speaker 3: They're like, well, you don't know that, and I go, eh, well,
let me walk you through some math. Yeah, really quick.
Speaker 5: And what I mean by that is, like I said,
barring some crazy movement in gold, if gold maintains anywhere
close to this valuation over the next year, you will
see majors, meaning huge, big dinosaur like miners putting up
sixty sixty five percent profit margins or profit margins that
are in line with Nvidia, okay, gold mining companies. So
you know, the world is changing right now. And what
we're trying to say is, if you're like most people
in the world, I guarantee your portfolio doesn't doesn't.
Speaker 3: Illustrate that, right, And I'll show you. You know, our
main value portfolio is up fifteen on the air. We're
going to show you how am I guaranteeing those returns?
Know what about?
Speaker 5: What I am showing is, guys, look at the opportunities
that exists out here, we ain't the only game in town.
And you and and furthermore, the average investor around the
world has never been more concentrated in US stocks. Okay,
now is you know with with every investment, there's a
time we make the investment and there's a time where
we take the profits.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 5: If US stocks have never been more overvalued when compared
to the rest of the world, when would be a
good time to know when you should take some money
off the table?
Speaker 3: If only there was probably probably what that happens.
Speaker 1: And so if only there was a clue. So I
can't say more than this, I can simply say otherwise
have to do the disclaimer. You could attend this upcoming
free live webinar are going to Know your Risk podcast
dot com legally exactly right. Okay, So that's it. That's
all I can say that stop.
Speaker 3: We're in yep, all right, be.
Speaker 1: Compliance people listening? All right, brother, thank you so much
for your time. I always enjoy and we will talk
next week. This is the Todd Hermann Show. Please go,
be well, be strong, be kind, and make a decision
for eternity to accept Jesus Christ as your Lord and
savior and to walk in his light,