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Speaker 1: So it turns out that we may have an opportunity

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to find out if we can short an entire major

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American city or state, because it appears that this guy

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may well be the next mayor of New York Cities,

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Johan Madame Mandami.

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Speaker 2: Grocery prices are out of control. The cost of eggs

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and milk has skyrocketed. Dumb stores are even using dynamic pricing,

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jacking up the cost over the course of a day

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depending on what they can get away with. It doesn't

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need to be this way. I'm Zara Mandani and as mayor,

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I will create a network of city owned grocery stores.

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It's like a public option for produce. We will redirect

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city funds from corporate supermarkets to city owned grocery stores

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whose mission is lower prices, not price gouging.

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Speaker 3: Oh Cuba awaits.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about this with the help of Visible gobisible

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dot com. If you're a smaller medium sized business owner

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and you don't know the difference between business credit and

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personal credit, man that puts you family at risk. Website

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is go visible dot com and thank you to God Almighty.

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Speaker 4: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved but Big Pharma

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technocrats in Tyran sabran Ware from the high mountains of

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Free America. Here's the Emerald City exile Todd Herman.

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Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these

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are the times to which God has decided we shall live.

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Zach Abraham, my friend, my brother Chief Investments or Bowarck

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Capital Management joins us from his studios in Dubai or

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I don't remember where, somewhere London, New York World.

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Speaker 5: You know, let's cutter today, because yeah, I feel like

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they've climbed up the astrology more lately.

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Speaker 3: Good So, yeah, goodness, it's what's hot.

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Speaker 1: Instead of the ways of the missiles. Just have that

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request for you. I actually saw on your on your

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on your Twitter show, on your X channel, and I

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was pretty surprised for this. You're not excited by having

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a guy who moved to our country seven years ago,

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who's had about three gigs, including rapper and working for

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his mom, a socialists Islamist running New York City. How

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is it this doesn't excite you?

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Speaker 3: So in my opinion, and I don't. I don't. I

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don't think I need to be that self deprecating.

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Speaker 5: So just generally speaking, this to me illustrates perfectly what

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is wrong with the political system in our country today. Okay,

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And the reason why I say that is, do New

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Yorkers have a right and a reason to be frustrated

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with leadership, especially as of late.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I don't think they blame themselves enough about who they pick.

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But but here, here's here's the here's the part of

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for us that I have. And to be fair, I

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think that these kinds of mental blocks exist on both

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sides of the political aisle, but this one on the

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left is really frustrating. If you could provide me just

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one example, one example of inputting socialist practices like that

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and seeing it make a positive difference or change in

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any way to prices paid by a consumer.

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Speaker 3: I am all ears.

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Speaker 5: And when I say I'm all ears, I don't mean

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to attack this from an ideological position, right, but this

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to me, having this debate about socialism and free markets,

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it is the equivalent of flat earthers, right like it there.

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Not only has it not given better, you know, prices

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to consumers, it's been a disaster. And the reason it's

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been a disaster is very very very simple. Government has

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political motivations, businesses have economic and when you're trying to

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get it right economically, it's hard.

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Speaker 3: When you're not trying, it's impossible.

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Speaker 5: And it's just it's just that simple, right, Like I

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just sit there and go, well, I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, well, it's sort of like gravity. You

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don't have to believe in it. It believes in you. Yep,

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that's fine, that's.

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Speaker 1: That's that matter. Yep, it will exert that belief.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And it's just that That's where I look at

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the aocs of the world and I'm like, you're doing

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your constituents dirty, Like, like, I know, it doesn't I know,

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it's not cool that your Ivy League cocktail parties you

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get together at guys. But if you want prices lower,

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free markets have to be the cornerstone of that system.

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And he's, oh, dynamic pricing. You're the average grocery store

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in this country averages two and a half to three

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percent profit margins. It's the opposite of problem. What are

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you talking about?

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Speaker 3: And if if those government and if those grocery stores

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that are run think of the practices that they've learned

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over the last hundred years to try to maximize that

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too and a half to three percent.

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Speaker 2: You.

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Speaker 5: I guarantee you any government deal you put into place

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will result in higher prices and will be a money

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losing entity.

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Speaker 3: Mark it down at.

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Speaker 1: Remember the Amtrak Hamburger example. And if you don't remember,

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it's all to repeat it for you in seconds and

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I'll show you AOC syced by this. Then I legitimately,

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as not just your friend, but as your client, you

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steward our money. I have a legitimate question about shorting

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the city of New York if there's a way to

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do that, or short the state of New York, because

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I'm feeling that way. So we'll talk about this in

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a second. There is an opportunity you have, and I'm like,

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I admit something. There's a whole bunch of cool things

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we talk about with Angel Studios. Sound of Freedom is cool.

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This new movie King of Kings is cool, particularly for

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kids and grandkids coming to Jesus. And it beat the

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garbage out of Snow White, and that's cool. Their fan

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curated shows are cool. At Angel, they're continuing to invest

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in movies and TV shows that promote faith and family

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values in for real and all that's cool. The two

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free tickets you get to the theatrical releases. When you

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join the Angel Studio Premium Guild member, you join as

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a Premium Guild member. That's cool, that's amazing. Here's the

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thing that I don't think everyone is sufficiently suxcited enough

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about Angel Studio has made us the production arm not

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funding it. Well, yeah, I mean we pay to be

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Premium Studio members or Angel Studios Guild members. That's the

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way we fund it. We vote that. This doesn't pretend

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they have committed to make the movies. We thumbs up

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to distribute them and promote them. Guys, we've complained enough

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about Hollywood's Angel has opened the door walk through. It's

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Angel dot com slash Todd again. Watch King of King's

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animated feature of the Life of Jesus Christ, based upon

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Charles dar Arwin's work The Lord of the Life of

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Our Lord. He told that sorry of his kids two

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free tickets to any theatrical release they make. Watch King

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of Kings. Now stream the fan created shows and vote

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on the movies that they promote to the public and release.

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It is Angel dot com slash todd. Okay, so we've

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talked about visual we talked about movies. Let's enjoy AOC

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supporting a guy who moved to America seven years ago,

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has had about three jobs, one was rapper, otherwise working

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for his mama, and he may well be the next

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mayor of New York City supporting Sobron.

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Speaker 6: And we all support Sobron because supporting Zobron is a

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vote for a New York for all of us. Make

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sure you vote early June fourteenth, or you can vote

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on election day June twenty fourth.

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Speaker 1: So the endorsement of AOC A woman who pretended to

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cry outside of migrant holding cells. It was a parking

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lot theater enough, Zach. I have to ask you this,

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I mean this legitimately. I am now speaking to you

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as client Todd. Can I somehow use all the money

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that you've shepherded, that you shepherd for us to short

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New York? Is that possible?

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Speaker 3: Yes? And no, you'll you'll get a kick out of

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this funny you ask.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Yeah, we were having a conversation this morning where

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our analysts right now are looking at several companies that

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are Florida based that have substantially large landholdings.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things we're looking.

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Speaker 7: Into, yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, So so one of the

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things we're looking into is and look, I'm not saying

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anybody s goo out and buy those, yeah, but literally

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right along these practices because you're about ready to see

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an exodus of a big part of their tax base

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leaving the state.

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Speaker 3: So have fun.

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Speaker 1: Well, he's he's fervently anti Israel, and I think heat

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borders on actual anti Semitism, being against Jewish people. I mean,

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he's supports Hamas, he supports defunding the cops, he supports

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the riots. So I don't know if I was a

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Jewish person living there in a Islamus socialist who supports

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Hamas and wants to defund the cops is going to

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be mayor, I might take my businesses out of New York.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I mean you have to. And that's

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why so many guys I know guys that have left.

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I know several guys that will be leaving. And it's

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you know, most of those guys are in the money

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management business and that's by far the biggest driver of

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tax receipts in that state and city.

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Speaker 3: And okay, so they're they're moving to Miami.

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Speaker 1: I mean, can we short the real estate markets? There

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are the roll ups of that or the like funds

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that are behind the really markets. I'm not kidding about

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wanting to short the whole state. I mean, could that

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ever be done?

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Speaker 3: Noway?

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Speaker 5: I mean technically you could, you could short their bonds,

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but that gets into a really sticky scenario because you

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never know when the Feds are going to step in,

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you know what I mean, They're just do But but like

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I said, I think that, uh, the biggest recipient from

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this will be Miami specifically in Florida generally speaking. And

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so I think that you know, Florida real estate kind

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of kind of got out over its skis and pulled

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back this This very well could provide the impetus to

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push it the next leg forward. And and the other

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thing I think people on the left are about ready

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to figure out is that, like everything in this economy

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that moves so much faster than it did at any

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other time, this will be no exception.

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Speaker 3: They're going to lose. And the reason for it is, Look.

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Speaker 5: How much easier it is to move a firm today

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than it was even thirty years ago.

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Speaker 3: Right, you don't you don't have for the most part.

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I mean, there's still some stuff that you got to keep.

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Speaker 5: But you don't have the entire you know, floors of

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buildings of physical records that you've got to move over, right,

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it's everything. So it is so much easier in the

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work at home age. I mean, like if I had

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to move Bulward to Florida, we could have operations set

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up in Florida and up and running by Monday of

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next week. Yeah, you know, it's it's so much easier now.

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And when you look at what that savings is going

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to be, yeah, I mean it's it's the other thing

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is property property prices. Right, if you had a bunch

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of property holdings in New York, now would be a

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great time to ring the register. So and like I said,

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this is what's broken with our political system because people need.

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Speaker 3: To wake up and go, guys, this.

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Speaker 5: Is the period of time where what we need to

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be doing here and and this might sound a little progressive,

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but hear what I'm saying, and I'd encourage everybody. What

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we need to be doing is we need to be

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looking at everything and figuring out what parts work and

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what parts don't. Right, And guys on the left, if

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you have if you seriously want to achieve a lot

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of the things that you say you want to achieve

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for people and portance, there's you're never going to do

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it with out free markets. You're never It's not gonna happen.

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I'm just warning you, yeah.

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Speaker 3: Right, like and you're just you're just not And.

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Speaker 5: And the the the self flagulation, the self hate that

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is just that is represented in these economic ideas.

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Speaker 3: It's just astounding.

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Speaker 5: Where you go, guys, why would you completely turn coat

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on the most successful economic experience in the history of mankind?

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Shouldn't regardless of what you learned in that ideological chamber

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that we call college. Now, regardless of what you learned,

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don't you think that we should look at the elements

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that created and made possible the greatest economic power in

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human history?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and then and then look at New York itself.

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I mean, I'm sitting here and I'm not Joe. If

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I could short the city, i would because I know

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Ruin's coming to this guy's mayor. But look at New

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York itself. You can still barter there, like legit. You

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can go into stores and you can barter. You're gonna

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go buy a suit from a guy who want to

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go buy a bespoke suit or custom made suit. You

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can walk into a shop where the guy who's you know,

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cutting up the fabric and measuring it, he's one of

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the owners. And you can legit take a suit from

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you know, fifteen hundred bucks down to eleven hundred bucks

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if you agree to buy a bunch of ties. That

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and that that built that city. You can walk down

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a street in the Irish corn that's a Rish Cordiner

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and you don't like this pot pie. There's this pot

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pie over here, there's this pot roast over here. You

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can compare those prices. Now with apps, you can do that.

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All everything in New York is built around small going big.

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And there are what you would think of as tiny,

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little small businesses. And you get there and they're these delis,

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and you walk in and they have a down they

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have a downstairs and medium floor middle flour, and then

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an upper floor which is actually a nice restaurant. You

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talk to those families that used to be their apartments,

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and over time they have bought and bought and bought,

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and now they've got these like three layers of businesses there.

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And everything in New York that works has been based

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on this. I forgot to pay this off he talked

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about the government grocery stores. Do you know the Amtrak

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hamburger story.

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Speaker 3: I remember it. I don't remember the specifics, but I

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know what you're talking about. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So if you've written Amtrak, they used to sell hamburgers, okay,

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and maybe they still didn't written in a while. So

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they were microwave hamburgers. They pop them in the plastic

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and they cook them up, and frankly, in terms of chemicals,

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made the taste like food out of a microwave. They're

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not as bad as the stuff that we use as kids,

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the easy baked stuff you'd eat. Okay, So just do it.

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The defense. Those hamburgers were I think fifteen dollars and

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they lost money. They lost money at least nine Bucks

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and they lost money. Now, I want you to think

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of this. Outside of both terminals in New York, in

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Grand Central and in Washington, d C. Union Station, there

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are literally Zach McDonald's next to all the train stops

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for those trains. You can go. What does I mean

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back in the day fifteen bucks bought you four or

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five hamburgers. With McDonald's. They lost money on every single hamburger,

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and they continued to sell them. And I kid you

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not when I tell you that one of the defenses

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of this was they may lose money on the Hamburgers,

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but they're making it up in volume.

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Speaker 3: Yes, well, well, well I understand.

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Speaker 5: I mean, look, if you think, if you think government

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run grocery stores and the answer to high food costs

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in New York, you would think you would be that

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stupid to believe that.

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Speaker 1: Right, right, right, right. And the thing is, and this

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is the thing that people you're making the point that

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businesses seek profit, government seeks power. So when they come together,

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guess whose product is in the government run grocery store.

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It's the guy who had the Way of Greece and

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the skids. All right. That's New York, up the street,

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up up North Canada. You're aware, you and I've talked

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about central bank, digital currency, et cetera. There's two things

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I want to compare. Bitcoin jumped to one hundred and

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five thousand dollars all right this week, And as I

302
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,759
look at that, I remember the I have it at home.

303
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I remember the discussion with my wife. I want to

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spend fifty thousand dollars in bitcoin two weeks effort to launching.

305
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My wife said nah, I'm just mentally doing the math.

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Speaker 3: Don't do it.

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Speaker 1: I would have had fifty thousand bitcoins.

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Speaker 3: Okay. Let me, let me, let me, let me, let me.

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Let me make you feel better about it, right, Okay?

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And yeah, because there's a guy that handed his money,

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I could literally do this all day long.

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Speaker 5: Okay, and I and I specifically, and I've told you

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the story before it.

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Speaker 3: But for those that don't know, yeah, I've got one

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that's worse.

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Speaker 5: The day that it launched, Yeah, the day that it

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had its first transaction, a guy I bought a pizza

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I think for about sixty five bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: Yay.

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Speaker 3: I called my uncle who was he now works with me,

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but he was.

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Speaker 5: Running a money management firm down in Panama. And I

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said to him, I go, have you heard about this

324
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,039
bitcoin thing? And he goes no, And I go, turn

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on your TV. This thing is a shot across the

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bow at all Fiat currency, this is what I said.

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And I said to him, I go, this is the

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kind of thing you throw five grand at and put

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in your dresser drawer. Now, the reason I said that

330
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is because there's a there's a it's a phrase in

331
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our business with throw it in the dresser drawer means

332
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,920
just buy it, hold it forever, and just forget about it, right,

333
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,079
just a flyer, right, Okay. Had I done that with

334
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at that time, bitcoin was trading just a touch below

335
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:45,519
a dollar, so I would add five thousand bitcoin. Now

336
00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:49,519
here's why I said don't do it, beacause you never

337
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would have held it, and I wouldn't have either. I

338
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would have cashed it in once I was up, once

339
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,240
it was worth five hundred grand. My five grand had

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become five hundred grand, I would have sold it.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 1: But I'm looking at the math here, which she told

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me not to do. Let's see five two five zero

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zero zero zero, probably like zero five billion. I would

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have five billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, probably, Yeah.

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Speaker 5: It's it's the best. It's the best performing investment of

348
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,799
all times. So there's no other investment that has grown

349
00:18:19,839 --> 00:18:20,519
that big that fast.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not going to think about the fact that

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I had the money. This was in the days of

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00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,799
of of of money just pouring. Okay, So I'm gonna

353
00:18:29,799 --> 00:18:33,240
forget that. But in fact, actually call my wife real

354
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quick because we don't keep grievances. I'll take okay. So no,

355
00:18:37,599 --> 00:18:39,000
I mean she was why it was. It was a

356
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smart thing to do. And gosh knows, I've made my mistakes.

357
00:18:41,559 --> 00:18:43,480
I've I've done much more harm to our family than

358
00:18:43,519 --> 00:18:47,160
she has. All Right, Mark Carney, this is a clip

359
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,000
and it has Carne in it and a bunch of

360
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,480
other globalists, people who seek our control. I want you

361
00:18:52,519 --> 00:18:55,799
to hear the way Mark Carney pitches something to us.

362
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And then let's compare this a bitcoin. Here in just

363
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,279
a second, Zach, before Zach, here's that. I'm going to

364
00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:02,480
force him to hear this. I told you that I

365
00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:07,200
have insulin resistance, right, Okay, you might too. I'm telling

366
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,039
you that there are really, really in shape people who

367
00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:12,240
have insulin resistance. So when I found this out, and

368
00:19:12,319 --> 00:19:14,720
I remember, I remember the physicality of this moment because

369
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,680
I'm sitting there all tall and proud and in Doc

370
00:19:17,799 --> 00:19:20,480
Jen's office, and oh, your kidney functioning is good, your

371
00:19:20,519 --> 00:19:23,319
filtering is good, cholesterol is good, this soul looks good.

372
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,720
Free testosterone is good. However, you know that when you

373
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,079
get that from your hormone doctor. However, and then she

374
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:36,680
turned her computer to me, see you, let me find

375
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,279
the markers you have insulin resistance. And then she looked

376
00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:41,839
at me, and I swear she was a little bit

377
00:19:41,839 --> 00:19:45,920
glib insulin resistance, said kind of a thrill in her face,

378
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,440
like you got something wrong. So we talked about some cures,

379
00:19:49,519 --> 00:19:52,960
more plants, more fiber, and then I finally let the

380
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,960
people at Bachama just win the day. It wasn't me

381
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,799
because I pulled out of my bag burbering breakthrough. Here's

382
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,200
what I have for free. I pay them for the

383
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,240
rest of their stuff. This is a sample, So I've

384
00:20:03,279 --> 00:20:05,880
been using this two tablets before every meal, and this

385
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:11,079
settles out blood sugar issues, like it encourages the insulin

386
00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:15,599
instant levels to stay more sounds, it encourages the proper

387
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:20,400
metabolism of carbohydrates, It evens out mood issues. And one

388
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,720
of the things it also does is increases blood sugar

389
00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:25,799
uptake into the muscles instead of the fat cells. Because

390
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,680
that whole thing about insulin resistance, that's an on ramp

391
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,880
to type two diabetes and on ramp. I don't want

392
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,519
to walk, nor do you, So go maximize your own metabolism.

393
00:20:34,599 --> 00:20:37,240
Go to boptimizers dot com slash Todd use promo codad

394
00:20:37,319 --> 00:20:39,759
to get temper sent off all their products, starting with

395
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,000
Burberine breakthrough, do not walk the pathway towards type two

396
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:47,440
diabetes bobtimizers dot com slash Todd promo code Todd. Here's

397
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,759
Mark Carney, the dictator of Canada. Listen closely to this, Zach,

398
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:53,200
because man does he have on an offer for us?

399
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:54,480
And it's all voluntary.

400
00:20:54,880 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 8: We're developing through technology and ability for consumers to measure

401
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:01,480
their own carbon footprint.

402
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: What does that mean?

403
00:21:03,839 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 8: That's where are they traveling, How are they traveling, what

404
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,599
are they eating? What are they consuming on the platform?

405
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,839
So individual carbon footprint tracker.

406
00:21:15,799 --> 00:21:22,039
Speaker 1: That's that's but you okay.

407
00:21:19,319 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 4: I.

408
00:21:21,039 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 3: Can't.

409
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,559
Speaker 5: I just look, I can't stand this piece of garbage.

410
00:21:25,599 --> 00:21:27,960
And the reason I can't stand him is I do

411
00:21:28,079 --> 00:21:31,720
not believe him for a second. I do not believe

412
00:21:31,759 --> 00:21:39,759
that he believes this. This is garbage and CARNEYE is garbageage.

413
00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what I really think.

414
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, so garbage. Wait wait, you don't think he okay,

415
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,200
I don't think he believes he's a climate catastrophe.

416
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 3: I know.

417
00:21:47,839 --> 00:21:48,559
Speaker 1: I don't believe that.

418
00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:51,839
Speaker 5: No, no, but he is a globalist looking for more

419
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,839
control over. He loves the idea be able to freeze

420
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:57,160
Trucker's Bank accounts.

421
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,599
Speaker 3: This guy is all about that. He is he is

422
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,799
klau Schwab World Economic Forum, globalist all the way.

423
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 5: And you heard him say that we seek to increase

424
00:22:08,799 --> 00:22:13,920
our ties with our European Why why the European brethren

425
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,799
that you talk about have a worst greenhouse gas emission

426
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:17,759
is percentage of their.

427
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 3: Population than we do. What are you talking about?

428
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,519
Speaker 5: You want to tie yourself to the most inefficient, unproductive

429
00:22:24,559 --> 00:22:25,920
economies on the face of the earth.

430
00:22:26,079 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 3: Good job, Mark, good job. No, you want to consolidate power.

431
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,759
That's what you're all about. How is it?

432
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 1: And you've run more in these circles than I have.

433
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,079
I have run a little bit in the DC circles.

434
00:22:40,039 --> 00:22:46,200
I'm never Davos, but the advertising awards, dinners and that

435
00:22:46,319 --> 00:22:49,319
sort of stratosphere for a little while, and a few

436
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,160
Hollywood dinners and the cocaine merrors. And I never forartook

437
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:54,960
praise God stopping me from that. I never had any

438
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,319
interest in that. Frankly, so I've seen some of that.

439
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,000
I've never run like you have in finance. Okay, that

440
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,759
you're capitalists. Did that for a while, raise some money, sure,

441
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:08,160
with some partners meetings, Sure, Okay, some LP meetings okay,

442
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:13,200
but never like you. How is it that people here

443
00:23:13,559 --> 00:23:16,759
think that all these systems they're going to build, they're

444
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,680
always going to be the ones on top. Do they

445
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,440
not understand that their second, third, fourth, and fifth to

446
00:23:22,519 --> 00:23:25,680
the big, big players. Mark Carney thinks he's a player.

447
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,920
I mean in relation to the people who truly want

448
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,000
to have these control mechanisms. Mark Carney ain't no play

449
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,319
you no.

450
00:23:33,519 --> 00:23:35,839
Speaker 5: And the only the only way he's even allowed into

451
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,799
the room is if he does what he's currently doing right,

452
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,400
like towing the party line. And like you said, he's

453
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,519
not going to be a shot caller, but he'll be

454
00:23:43,559 --> 00:23:47,160
able to be in the room. People need to understand something,

455
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,359
because it is it is decidedly different.

456
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 3: I think that part of.

457
00:23:53,599 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 5: That finance circle is the vast majority of those guys

458
00:23:57,279 --> 00:24:01,240
come from blue blood backgrounds and go to you know,

459
00:24:01,279 --> 00:24:05,400
the Ivy league schools and all, and what you realize

460
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,359
when you're around them, especially now, Look, there's plenty of

461
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,759
guys that come from that that aren't like this, but

462
00:24:11,839 --> 00:24:17,720
I'm just speaking for the majority. And once they realize that,

463
00:24:17,799 --> 00:24:19,119
you're sort of an anomaly.

464
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 3: And what I mean by that.

465
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,599
Speaker 5: Is, well, you didn't go to the schools that we

466
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,799
didn't grow up in the in the circles that we did.

467
00:24:24,839 --> 00:24:27,839
But somehow you're still a smart guy, so we're going

468
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,079
to let you in the room. Right, Yes, it's sort

469
00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:32,279
of this backhanded compliment, right yes.

470
00:24:32,319 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 3: And what people.

471
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Speaker 5: Don't understand is if you want to talk about something

472
00:24:36,599 --> 00:24:40,799
that parallels with the cast system in India, right, it's

473
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:45,240
that because these people truly believe that they are in

474
00:24:45,279 --> 00:24:49,680
a different class, They truly believe that no matter what happens,

475
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,680
they will always be at the top of the heap

476
00:24:52,079 --> 00:24:54,559
that they're and I would say, looking at the last

477
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,680
especially thirty years in American history, I understand the reason

478
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:03,119
why they believe that. They truly see uh In a

479
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,839
lot of ways, it's much like the Soviet Union was, right,

480
00:25:05,839 --> 00:25:09,599
we've got the polut Bureau, and we've got the you know,

481
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:10,839
we've got the rest of them, We've got the we

482
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,119
got the plebeians.

483
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,519
Speaker 3: We've got the proletariat.

484
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:13,839
Speaker 4: Right.

485
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 5: The term terminology they use the time, that's the way

486
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,400
they see it. And they think that the common man

487
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,400
is in the way of them fixing their goals or

488
00:25:24,759 --> 00:25:28,640
fixing all these problems. And if the average guy knew

489
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,599
the disdain that these people have for him, I think

490
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,880
they would see it differently. And this whole climate thing,

491
00:25:35,759 --> 00:25:39,480
you know, a perfect undressing of this is just go

492
00:25:39,519 --> 00:25:42,279
look at the interview that Rogan did just the other

493
00:25:42,319 --> 00:25:48,119
day with Bernie Sanders, meaning the I don't really I

494
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,519
think that there are a lot of people that believe

495
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,160
the climate hysteria, and I think the people that actually

496
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,880
believe it are a much larger percentage. But it's it

497
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,319
is the oddest thing because you see these guys jump

498
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,680
to conclusions where you look at them and go, guys,

499
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,319
I'm sorry, man, it could be a bigger problem than

500
00:26:08,319 --> 00:26:12,839
I'm giving it credit for. But what you're saying, it

501
00:26:13,039 --> 00:26:14,880
just doesn't fit the data we've got.

502
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 3: It's just not accurate. I don't know what to tell you.

503
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 5: And then if you put the context, you know, if

504
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,079
you go look at the last two three thousand years

505
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,319
of temperature, you might have to go back further than that,

506
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,480
and you look at where we currently are, we're at

507
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:31,279
the very low end of the scale. So and look,

508
00:26:31,279 --> 00:26:35,519
I'm not saying man doesn't play a part. I personally

509
00:26:35,559 --> 00:26:38,319
think we probably play somewhat of a role. But I

510
00:26:38,319 --> 00:26:41,640
think it's very much on the margins meaning if a

511
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,319
couple meaning if a couple of these factors go this way,

512
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,880
I almost think it doesn't matter what we do, you

513
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,720
know what I mean, like like.

514
00:26:50,039 --> 00:26:51,519
Speaker 3: You know, hotter or colder?

515
00:26:51,559 --> 00:26:54,319
Speaker 5: Now, can we have an impact? I don't find it

516
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,440
implausible that we have some impact. I just think it's

517
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:58,920
been way overstated.

518
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: There's no doubt.

519
00:27:00,799 --> 00:27:02,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's ridiculous.

520
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:02,519
Speaker 4: You know.

521
00:27:02,559 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: I was just thinking of CARNEYE and that question. You know,

522
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,039
does he really think he a player? Do you remember

523
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:13,079
the movie Colors, Yeah, Robert Duvall Sean Penn. Sean Penn

524
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,400
plays a young cop. He's excited to go out and

525
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,920
crack heads and go after the gangs. Devall's been there

526
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,119
a long time. Sean Penn is almost sort of a gangster.

527
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,759
Is the way they're playing this off is he likes

528
00:27:22,799 --> 00:27:25,200
to crack heads, like I said, And he ends up

529
00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:28,920
dating a young woman who comes from a gangster background,

530
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,359
from the neighborhoods the Bodrios. And at one point he

531
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,160
goes over to pick her up for a date and

532
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:39,480
he's not in his colors, he's not in uniform, and

533
00:27:39,519 --> 00:27:41,799
the guy's in the bodyo. Now like hey man, you're

534
00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:43,920
not on work. Now you think we're gonna be yes, sir, No,

535
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,680
sir while you're here. No, no things are changed. Now

536
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,279
you're just a guy and all that swagger he thought

537
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:55,200
like he earns. No, it's gone. No one there is afraid.

538
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,519
No one there's intimidated. And I would like to be there.

539
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,839
I don't want this happen. I mean, we know God

540
00:28:01,839 --> 00:28:03,839
wins in the end, but we also know there's going

541
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,640
to be the fake players, like the anti Christ and

542
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,160
the lawless one. I kind of like to be there

543
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,839
when Mark when that shift happens. They gained the control

544
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,759
they need. They don't need Mark Carney anymore. I would

545
00:28:16,839 --> 00:28:18,519
like to be there when Mark Karney walks up at an

546
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,359
event to Bill Gates says hi Bill Mark Carney, and

547
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:27,000
Bill goes who, Sorry, I don't remember any Mark Karney.

548
00:28:27,079 --> 00:28:30,400
Have a good day. And So one of the things

549
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,759
about culture and it has to do with fist fighting.

550
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,079
And I'll share this with you in just a second,

551
00:28:35,079 --> 00:28:37,759
because I've done like you've done, but you were talking

552
00:28:37,759 --> 00:28:40,000
about the difference in culture. I'll share this to the second.

553
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,880
Sometimes there's a fist fight between you and your bank.

554
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,400
Right I'm in one right now with my bank. I

555
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,559
love the people at my bank. I want to be clear.

556
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,720
They're good people. They're super good at knowing your names.

557
00:28:51,039 --> 00:28:53,519
In fact, the other day the manager there went way

558
00:28:53,559 --> 00:28:55,759
out of his way to help my daughter, who is

559
00:28:55,799 --> 00:28:58,759
an up and coming artist. And I don't want to

560
00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:01,400
leave that bank. But they let something happen that's really bad.

561
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,480
I don't blame them for this though. When I started

562
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,079
talking about corporate credit, man, they were on it. Here's

563
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,279
the forums, fill this out. Let's get you going on

564
00:29:09,279 --> 00:29:11,599
the corporate credit. Then I had a discussion with a

565
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,079
cat named Brian mckechney, and he's a good friend of Zach.

566
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,440
Zach and he went to college together. And mckeckney taught

567
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,640
me the difference between corporate credit and personal credit. And

568
00:29:21,839 --> 00:29:25,400
my business debit card says my business name on it,

569
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,400
but it's not business credits, and the difference. Not knowing

570
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,720
the difference, guys, this can ruin you. Okay, not knowing

571
00:29:33,759 --> 00:29:36,240
the difference between personal credit and corporate credit can ruin

572
00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:38,359
you in an all likelihood. If you're a smaller medium

573
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,599
sized business owner, in all likelihood you are operating in

574
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:45,920
personal credit, so your business is unfundable. Largely unless it's

575
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,559
from your personal credit, mortgaging your house. If God forbid

576
00:29:49,599 --> 00:29:52,000
you make a mistake, they can purse your corporate veil

577
00:29:52,319 --> 00:29:56,319
like that, go after your personal assets like that. But

578
00:29:56,519 --> 00:29:59,319
Visible can address this in seven easy steps. There's a

579
00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:03,480
few things you do yourself online. Because funny thing, Brian's

580
00:30:03,519 --> 00:30:05,799
not in the business of opening credit in your name,

581
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,119
the name of your business. He'll show you how it's done,

582
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,440
and I'll make you a absolute guarantee take him up

583
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,920
on a free nablgation consultation phone call. My guarantee you

584
00:30:16,119 --> 00:30:18,480
is you're going to learn something. And at the end

585
00:30:18,519 --> 00:30:20,400
of the call, when this all locks in, it makes

586
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,680
sense that you need to do this. Commit to the program.

587
00:30:23,079 --> 00:30:24,799
A lot of people want to put this off. You've

588
00:30:24,799 --> 00:30:26,400
put it off too long and you're at risk. It's

589
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,000
here's the website. It's go Visible g O B I

590
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,279
Z A B L E dot com. So, Zach, we're

591
00:30:33,279 --> 00:30:35,200
talking about the difference in culture and we'll get to

592
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,279
the big beautiful bill here and Biden, this is another

593
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,480
I might just skip all that actually and talk about Yeah, no,

594
00:30:40,599 --> 00:30:43,720
let's talk about Steve Forbes going after the FED. Let's

595
00:30:43,759 --> 00:30:46,200
talk that here. Just a second. So I was in

596
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,799
the car riding around with a guy who went to

597
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:55,160
let's see Stamford, Brown and Harvard. Okay, so went to

598
00:30:55,200 --> 00:31:00,920
some colleges and instantly dummy back in the day when

599
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:05,759
those colleges offered something. Instantly a kind man and the

600
00:31:05,799 --> 00:31:08,440
most honest non Christian I've ever known, and I mean

601
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,480
it so honest. He came in. We were staying at

602
00:31:11,839 --> 00:31:14,279
the Double Tree Suites by the airport in San Francisco.

603
00:31:14,519 --> 00:31:16,839
He hadn't eaten all day. He's taken us out for pitches,

604
00:31:17,359 --> 00:31:19,119
and he goes, man, I'm really hungry. I go here, John,

605
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,920
just use my card, Just go up and get breakfast.

606
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,880
And he goes, okay, is it a buffet? I go yeah.

607
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,000
He took my room keep for a second. He goes, wait,

608
00:31:27,039 --> 00:31:29,920
have you eaten anything? I said, I had two eggs.

609
00:31:30,559 --> 00:31:34,599
Oh no, I can't. He wouldn't go up and get

610
00:31:34,599 --> 00:31:37,480
like a buffet breakfast with my hotel key. He was

611
00:31:37,519 --> 00:31:40,119
that honest, right, Oh wow? And I said, if I

612
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,079
go get some will you eat the stuff I get

613
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,079
if you're genuinely not going to eat it? So is

614
00:31:46,119 --> 00:31:48,519
that sort of guy. We're driving around and we're just

615
00:31:48,519 --> 00:31:50,799
telling stories between a meeting and I talked about this

616
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,400
threat one of my family members got a female family

617
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:58,079
member was threatened for real, and I couldn't stop it

618
00:31:58,119 --> 00:32:01,599
with words, so I stopped it with physical actions. And

619
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,160
here's what he said. Like driving, he slowed the car

620
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,359
to the side of the roads by San Hill. Ready

621
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:16,039
his weight. You engaged in fisticuffs. He was stunned. I

622
00:32:16,079 --> 00:32:20,279
go fisticuffs. He goes fisticuffs. Okay, that's not a word.

623
00:32:20,519 --> 00:32:24,279
I learned later it's a word. Secondly, yeah, it's a

624
00:32:24,319 --> 00:32:28,119
close family member. I wow. That puts a whole new

625
00:32:28,119 --> 00:32:31,640
spin on how I look at you. You're a man

626
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,680
in your early forties. You've you played football, I be

627
00:32:35,759 --> 00:32:41,759
League football. You never had fisticuffs. It's it's a different,

628
00:32:41,799 --> 00:32:48,480
different world. Steve Forbes, he posted this. It's an article

629
00:32:49,599 --> 00:32:53,400
the FED is stonewalling rate cuts, not because of data,

630
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,920
but because it resents Trump. Jerome Powe's petty resistance to

631
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,400
rate cuts is hurting the economy. Time for a dog

632
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,640
style over hall and a FED that puts sound money

633
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,640
over politics. And this is a bit of the articles

634
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,279
that he wrote, the proof of the Federal Reserve's animates

635
00:33:08,319 --> 00:33:10,960
towards President Trump, is that the Central Bank cut interest

636
00:33:11,039 --> 00:33:16,000
rates twice before the presidential election, which would presumably have

637
00:33:16,039 --> 00:33:19,400
helped Democrats. It has resisted cutting rates since the beginning

638
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,680
of Trump's second term, even though inflation is lower than

639
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,839
it was last year. This is deeply disturbing, hurt the

640
00:33:24,839 --> 00:33:28,359
economy because you loaw the commander in chief letting personal snits.

641
00:33:28,599 --> 00:33:33,839
See there's an ivy leaguer snit letting personval snits over

642
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,359
the president's verbal broadsides guide monetary policy is shocking enough,

643
00:33:38,599 --> 00:33:40,319
but a deeper problem with than the Federal Reserve is

644
00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:43,559
the rock solid belief that it must manipulate economic activity

645
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:48,079
control inflation. So do you get a sense that this

646
00:33:48,319 --> 00:33:52,920
is ideological or personal between Powell and President Trump?

647
00:33:54,759 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 5: So the one thing, and I hope they'll your listeners

648
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,559
know this, but the one thing you're gonna get from

649
00:34:02,599 --> 00:34:05,400
me is the truth, or is close to the truth,

650
00:34:05,519 --> 00:34:08,000
or as close to the truth as I can possibly give.

651
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,679
Speaker 3: Yeap, And I'm not just gonna panther the crowd.

652
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:15,639
Speaker 1: Okay, hold on, lawyer, Wait, your lawyer's mind, you saving

653
00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:16,519
you're reading.

654
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:22,199
Speaker 3: So so I don't, I don't.

655
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,639
Speaker 5: I don't entirely agree with Forbes' assertion, and I don't,

656
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,320
and I base that just solely on data.

657
00:34:29,519 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 3: Okay, So let me let me just say this.

658
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,079
Speaker 5: I think that this is one of those issues that,

659
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,280
regardless of which side of the of the argument you

660
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,519
are on, I think you can cite several data points

661
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:48,039
that are very compelling that back you up. Okay, I

662
00:34:48,079 --> 00:34:50,920
think the FED could justify a small rate cut.

663
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:51,559
Speaker 3: I do not.

664
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 5: Look Trump's talking about one hundred and one hundred and

665
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,239
fifty bases points of cuts. There's just that's just not.

666
00:34:59,280 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 3: In the data.

667
00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:03,639
Speaker 5: And when you look at the history of inflation, like

668
00:35:03,679 --> 00:35:08,079
I've said before, especially in the United States, but virtually everywhere,

669
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:12,119
inflation has always been somewhat of a grease fire, meaning

670
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,519
you think you've got it put out, and it pops

671
00:35:14,599 --> 00:35:16,840
up again. We saw it several times in the seventies,

672
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,679
several times in the eighties. Do I think the FED

673
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:23,239
could have justified another twenty five or potentially even fifty

674
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,840
basis points of cuts. Yes, But there is another thing

675
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,800
that the FED is concerned about, and I think they're

676
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:30,960
right to be concerned about it. Now, you're not going

677
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,760
to hear them say this, And the reason you're not

678
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,519
going to hear them say this is I think if

679
00:35:35,519 --> 00:35:37,960
they did say it, it would probably only make the issue worse.

680
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,519
The FED wants to avoid a Liz Trust moment, Okay,

681
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,679
They do not want to lose control of the back

682
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:49,480
end of the curve. And what I mean by that is, okay,

683
00:35:49,639 --> 00:35:53,920
when the Fed issues debt, okay, they are issuing. I

684
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,599
believe the majority of the bills that they have issued

685
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,960
over the last three years have been at the shorter end,

686
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,840
and so mostly two year bills.

687
00:36:03,159 --> 00:36:08,199
Speaker 3: All right. When the fedadjusts interest rates, the only thing

688
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,599
that it really controls is the very front end of

689
00:36:11,639 --> 00:36:14,039
the curve, or what we refer to as the thirty

690
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:15,719
day SEC yield.

691
00:36:16,199 --> 00:36:20,079
Speaker 5: Okay, when we look at the interest rate on the tenure,

692
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,280
the twenty year or the thirty year, those interest rates

693
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:29,440
are determined solely by the market. Well, when your bonds

694
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:33,639
start selling off along with your currency, because the global

695
00:36:34,159 --> 00:36:41,239
monetary system has concerns about your financial viability, raising rates

696
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:47,480
can and has had the exact opposite reaction, because as

697
00:36:47,559 --> 00:36:53,079
you lower rates, it actually makes borrowing more money more

698
00:36:53,119 --> 00:36:57,079
affordable and can often be seen as a step in

699
00:36:57,159 --> 00:37:01,559
the wrong direction in terms of fiscal responsibility. So You

700
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,679
could absolutely see a scenario where the FED cut rates.

701
00:37:06,199 --> 00:37:07,559
Speaker 3: They yield on the two.

702
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 5: Year treasury went down as desired, but people went, uh oh,

703
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,920
that means more spendings coming our way, So we're going

704
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:19,559
to sell off a thirty year in my opinion, Now,

705
00:37:19,599 --> 00:37:21,639
do I know for a fact that would happen.

706
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,519
Speaker 3: No, But that's what we saw happen in Britain. Right.

707
00:37:24,599 --> 00:37:26,559
Speaker 5: The other thing that we've seen is the last several

708
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:29,519
times the FED launch QE, rates on the back end

709
00:37:29,559 --> 00:37:34,800
went up, not not the entire time, but initially. So look,

710
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,000
is it possible that the reason that the Fed has

711
00:37:38,039 --> 00:37:41,079
not cut an additional twenty five to fifty basis points?

712
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 3: Is it political? Absolutely possible? Okay. The other side of

713
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,840
it is the thing that I.

714
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,639
Speaker 5: Think that they're far more worried about about having rates

715
00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:53,760
twenty five or fifty basis points higher is if they

716
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,559
lose control of the back end of the curve.

717
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 3: So look, I just I think it is it is possible.

718
00:38:01,039 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 5: The one thing I will say is that I think

719
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,079
you could justify a twenty five basis point cut just

720
00:38:06,119 --> 00:38:09,039
looking at the data. I think that you could justify

721
00:38:09,159 --> 00:38:11,679
not doing a twenty five basis point cut because of

722
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,199
the back end of the curve issue that I was

723
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:18,960
just telling you about. But yeah, I don't think it.

724
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,960
It absolutely could be a political component to it. But

725
00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:24,280
to look at that situation and say that this is

726
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,280
just pure politics, like you're not paying attention to what

727
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,199
just happened in the UK, right, and for those that

728
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,840
didn't know about that, that ushered her out of power

729
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,840
in three weeks, yep, right, gone, right, Okay, when you

730
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,079
look at the problems that that could cause in our economy,

731
00:38:40,679 --> 00:38:43,320
Let's say Trump's right, Let's say interest rates are fifty

732
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,480
to one hundred basis points higher, losing the control of

733
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:46,960
the back.

734
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: End of the curve would be a much bigger problem.

735
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 1: Yeah right, yep, yep, so yep, okay, makes sense. You're

736
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:57,440
doing a webinar coming up called halftime, and clearly we're

737
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,559
halfway through the year. So I want you just to

738
00:38:59,599 --> 00:39:01,400
give us. I don't want you to give away the

739
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,119
webinar because now you guys are still working on other

740
00:39:03,159 --> 00:39:05,480
contents on this, et cetera. But I would like you

741
00:39:05,559 --> 00:39:07,920
to check us, give us a check up halfway through

742
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,880
this year fiscally, and maybe some things you guys are

743
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,960
looking at for the next part of this year. We

744
00:39:13,119 --> 00:39:17,239
do this in just a second. There is a delightful,

745
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,360
delightful smell that I have in the morning. Wait, that

746
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:21,000
came out wrong.

747
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 4: Not me.

748
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,559
Speaker 1: I don't personally have it, because I don't smell delightful

749
00:39:23,559 --> 00:39:25,840
in the morning. But I do have my bone frog

750
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:30,119
coffee set to start dripping at let's see. It starts

751
00:39:30,119 --> 00:39:32,559
set four o'clock in the morning, and it is such

752
00:39:32,599 --> 00:39:35,559
a satisyox is shaking his head. Oh you wait till

753
00:39:35,599 --> 00:39:37,719
you get our age, and you can't sleep past four,

754
00:39:38,159 --> 00:39:40,480
so I can hear it in there. And then when

755
00:39:40,519 --> 00:39:43,760
I walk in and I smell the frog, and no,

756
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,639
it's a bone frog, and I can go drink that.

757
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,480
My life with coffee has changed, I admit it. I

758
00:39:49,519 --> 00:39:51,280
was a guy who didn't drink coffee for taste. I

759
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,760
didn't like the way it tastes. But there's a couple

760
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,119
of different things that happened. I take the coffee, and

761
00:39:56,159 --> 00:39:59,320
I add and forgive me all my dairy farming friends,

762
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,639
I put oat juice into it. Okay, I don't know why.

763
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,639
I like the taste of it. When I'm on the road,

764
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,119
I'll have heavy cream with my bone frog. But at home.

765
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,679
I can't do the cows. I taste that I sit

766
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,280
and I if I'm being good, I read the Bible

767
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,840
and I take that in together. And then there's something

768
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,079
else that happens to me. I reflect upon the fact

769
00:40:19,119 --> 00:40:21,079
that every time I do this, I'm giving money to

770
00:40:21,119 --> 00:40:23,960
the Navy Seal Foundation. Ten percent of proceeds goes to

771
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,840
the Navy Seal Foundation. I personally, because I know Tim Krookshank,

772
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,400
the founder and CEO Bone Frog. He's become a very

773
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,119
good friend of mine. He's retired Navy Seal. He was

774
00:40:33,119 --> 00:40:35,679
a medic with the Seal Teams. I personally think about

775
00:40:35,679 --> 00:40:38,559
the struggles that Tim has gone through trying to save

776
00:40:38,559 --> 00:40:40,920
his wife's life from cancer, extending her life for twenty years.

777
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,840
I reflect on that. I often look at the bag

778
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,880
and it says on God Country Team, and I know

779
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,320
that's real for Tim, and so I kind of just

780
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,639
give thanks. Now, look, there's a personal component to this

781
00:40:50,679 --> 00:40:53,559
to me because I know Tim. You don't yet, although

782
00:40:53,599 --> 00:40:56,079
you might get to know him. He puts a note.

783
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,800
Almost ninety percent of the time there's a personal note

784
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,960
from Tim in the bag. And if he screws something

785
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,880
up in an order don't be surprised when you get

786
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,000
free coffee and an apology note from Tim. In fact,

787
00:41:06,039 --> 00:41:08,960
I've got emails to this effect. A lady's order was

788
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,599
a couple of days late, and she had this big

789
00:41:10,639 --> 00:41:13,960
event and she was getting worried. So Tim personally FedEx

790
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,400
to it overnight, and then her regular order showed up

791
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,960
with an apology from Tim on the house. This is

792
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,760
who he is. Bonefrog Coffee dot com slash Todd. Use

793
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,880
promo cod Tod to get tempercent off your first purchase

794
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:29,079
fifteen percent off subscription coffee Bonefrogffee dot com slash Todd. Zach,

795
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:34,119
we are coming up on the midpoint of June. You're

796
00:41:34,159 --> 00:41:38,480
doing this halftime live free webinar. What do you grade

797
00:41:38,519 --> 00:41:40,760
the economy halfway through? And what are you looking at

798
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:41,440
on the back end.

799
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 3: Of this year?

800
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:43,519
Speaker 4: You know.

801
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 5: Right now, if you look at it in a snapshot

802
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:51,000
right now, it's very noisy, meaning I see several things

803
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:52,519
that are very concerning.

804
00:41:52,599 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 3: Housing data continues to deteriorate.

805
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 5: That shouldn't be a that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.

806
00:41:58,159 --> 00:41:59,760
Reason why you've got to keep an eye on that

807
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:04,039
is whenever you have seen a substantial jump in unemployment.

808
00:42:04,599 --> 00:42:08,559
Construction jobs always lead the way, and it's pretty easy

809
00:42:08,599 --> 00:42:11,719
to see why that's a key, right, Like, when you

810
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,760
think about building homes, think about how many parts of

811
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:18,239
the economy that touches, right, Think about the concrete, think

812
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:26,320
about the wood products, appliances, carpet paint, oil, right, roofing, tar, paper, nails, right,

813
00:42:26,639 --> 00:42:29,639
so many, so many different parts. Yeah, so that that

814
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:34,599
is certainly concerning. Okay, when you look at trends of

815
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:39,119
consumer spending, that is beginning to look concerning too. People

816
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,000
like it's all positive, and I'm like, well, yeah, of

817
00:42:41,039 --> 00:42:44,199
course it is. It's an inflationary environment, right, so meaning

818
00:42:45,119 --> 00:42:49,239
you know, yeah, you'd expect an inflationary environment, consumer spending

819
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:50,320
will look like it's rising.

820
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 3: That's always a good thing.

821
00:42:52,519 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 5: Conversely, if you look over at the average Americans balance sheet,

822
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,960
because you're still at record home prices and record stock valuations,

823
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,679
personal balance sheets look really good. So you know you've

824
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:09,119
got increasing delinquencies. As far as loans go, you've got

825
00:43:09,159 --> 00:43:12,400
another concern coming out as a whole swath and wave

826
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,480
of student loans is coming back out of being deferred,

827
00:43:15,559 --> 00:43:17,920
so they're gonna have to start making payments on those. Initially,

828
00:43:18,639 --> 00:43:21,920
there's there's many things to be concerned about. But I

829
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,079
think in the in the larger picture, if we focus

830
00:43:25,119 --> 00:43:27,760
too myopically on that, I think we're missing the forest

831
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:31,719
for the trees. Meaning we have just come out of

832
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:36,679
a of an economic cycle, a fifteen year streak unlike

833
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,519
any that we have ever seen that has watched the

834
00:43:39,679 --> 00:43:43,840
United States, in my opinion, mostly fueled off some incredible

835
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,360
some incredible innovation in the private markets, but then largely

836
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,320
fueled off artificially low interest rates. And then and look,

837
00:43:51,599 --> 00:43:54,239
anytime you see a government go from seventy percent debt

838
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,679
to GDP up to one hundred and thirty percent, you

839
00:43:56,679 --> 00:43:57,880
would expect to see.

840
00:43:57,719 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 3: Their stock market go up.

841
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:03,639
Speaker 5: Okay, So, and then you've kind of reached this point

842
00:44:03,679 --> 00:44:10,719
where the US stock market has become seventy percent of

843
00:44:11,119 --> 00:44:14,679
global stock market value in totality. Right, So our economy

844
00:44:14,679 --> 00:44:17,599
makes up twenty percent of economic output, our stock market

845
00:44:17,599 --> 00:44:21,639
makes of seventy percent of stock market valuation. I think

846
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:26,119
what happens here in the next six to twelve months

847
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,480
isn't what we should be focused on the most. I

848
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,280
think what we should be focused on is what's going

849
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,320
to happen over the next five to ten years.

850
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 3: And I think when you look at it through.

851
00:44:35,599 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 5: That lens, just as you have had a once in

852
00:44:38,519 --> 00:44:42,400
a lifetime generational type run over the last fifteen years

853
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,599
for US assets, especially when compared to the rest of

854
00:44:45,639 --> 00:44:48,320
the world, I think you're about ready to see some

855
00:44:48,559 --> 00:44:50,760
type of counterbalance to that, right.

856
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 3: A mean reversion. And when you look.

857
00:44:54,159 --> 00:44:57,559
Speaker 5: At the valuation of so many of these countries, and

858
00:44:57,639 --> 00:45:01,079
so many of these countries that are now quickly looking

859
00:45:01,639 --> 00:45:03,400
when you show me, like, let's look at.

860
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:04,519
Speaker 3: For instance, at Brazil.

861
00:45:05,199 --> 00:45:07,519
Speaker 5: Okay, people be like, Zach, you're worried about debt and

862
00:45:07,559 --> 00:45:08,800
deficits in the United States.

863
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,039
Speaker 3: What about Brazil. You're worried about inflation in the United States.

864
00:45:12,039 --> 00:45:14,559
What about Brazil? Okay, Brazil's running it.

865
00:45:15,199 --> 00:45:20,159
Speaker 5: I think, what are they at ten eleven percent deficits? Okay,

866
00:45:20,159 --> 00:45:23,960
but look at where they're at in terms of there

867
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,920
are so many things Brazil can do if they had

868
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:33,039
competent leadership to drastically improve economic efficiency. They have so

869
00:45:33,159 --> 00:45:36,480
many levers they can pull to juice their economy. They

870
00:45:36,519 --> 00:45:40,000
have so much untapped human capital, they have so much

871
00:45:40,079 --> 00:45:43,519
untapped natural resources. They've got so many different ways, and

872
00:45:44,119 --> 00:45:47,039
it appears is politically, like a lot of these Latin

873
00:45:47,039 --> 00:45:49,840
American countries, they're starting to realize that. They're like, look,

874
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,039
we've gone down the socialist road. It hasn't helped, it's

875
00:45:53,039 --> 00:45:56,840
made it worse. So they're almost they're almost pivoting right

876
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:02,079
out of necessity. Right then, you go look at valuations

877
00:46:02,079 --> 00:46:03,840
in that part of the world. I'll give you an example.

878
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,239
If we look at the average bank in the United

879
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,880
States right now. Now I'm not telling you to go

880
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:10,519
out and get in Latin American banks, but I'm just

881
00:46:10,599 --> 00:46:14,880
using the example. You're probably paying somewhere between seventeen to

882
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,599
twenty times earnings on that bank. You're probably getting maybe

883
00:46:17,599 --> 00:46:19,960
a two to and a half percent dividend. Okay, Now

884
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,039
that bank has relatively little growth. You know, we know

885
00:46:23,039 --> 00:46:27,599
all the stuff about that. We just found a very reputable,

886
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:31,800
long standing South American bank whose stock happens to trade

887
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,400
on the New York Stock Exchange.

888
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 3: It's looking at double digit revenue growth.

889
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,559
Speaker 5: They're going to be a main financier of probably most

890
00:46:39,639 --> 00:46:42,599
stuff that goes on in Latin America. And they're trading

891
00:46:42,639 --> 00:46:46,679
at four times earnings paying a fourteen percent dividend. Last

892
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,559
year they had so much excess cash flow, they issued

893
00:46:49,559 --> 00:46:53,079
a special dividend. So last year alone, in dividend payments

894
00:46:53,079 --> 00:47:01,039
you received twenty two percent. Okay, yeah, like valuation and dividend.

895
00:47:01,079 --> 00:47:03,159
Where you're sitting there looking at this and going, what's

896
00:47:03,199 --> 00:47:08,800
the catch. The catch is that is how US markets

897
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,800
got to the point they are. Meaning people need to

898
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,639
see the world as it is. Right, we think about, oh,

899
00:47:13,679 --> 00:47:17,000
that's what that company's worth. No, worth is all in

900
00:47:17,039 --> 00:47:20,760
public markets. It's all about where money's flowing. If seventy

901
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,800
percent of the money around the world flows into the

902
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:27,039
United States, you know simultaneously that most markets around the

903
00:47:27,039 --> 00:47:29,119
world are going to be relatively or are going to

904
00:47:29,159 --> 00:47:31,599
be very undervalued on a comparable basis.

905
00:47:32,079 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 3: If that goes on for.

906
00:47:33,639 --> 00:47:38,159
Speaker 5: Fifteen years, you know you expect to see his historic

907
00:47:38,559 --> 00:47:39,800
valuation spreads.

908
00:47:40,199 --> 00:47:42,559
Speaker 3: And that's where we're seeing.

909
00:47:42,599 --> 00:47:46,119
Speaker 5: So we're trying to tell people, listen, guys, there are

910
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,719
other games in town. Does that mean we're just selling

911
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,519
US assets written large? No, but we need to go out.

912
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 3: To a more diversified scenario. Right.

913
00:47:55,159 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 5: Another thing, I'd look at people and be like, how

914
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,880
much exposure do you have to gold or gold miners.

915
00:47:59,079 --> 00:48:01,119
Speaker 3: They're like, well, they're not good. And I'm like, hey, well,

916
00:48:01,199 --> 00:48:02,119
let me tell you a secret.

917
00:48:02,679 --> 00:48:07,760
Speaker 5: Okay, barring something unforeseen or exogenous threats, which exists to

918
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,320
all markets at all times. Are you aware that gold

919
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,960
miners will be the most profitable sector of the US

920
00:48:14,039 --> 00:48:14,760
markets this year?

921
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 3: They're like, well, you don't know that, and I go, eh, well,

922
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:21,400
let me walk you through some math. Yeah, really quick.

923
00:48:21,559 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 5: And what I mean by that is, like I said,

924
00:48:23,679 --> 00:48:28,039
barring some crazy movement in gold, if gold maintains anywhere

925
00:48:28,079 --> 00:48:30,920
close to this valuation over the next year, you will

926
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:36,440
see majors, meaning huge, big dinosaur like miners putting up

927
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,559
sixty sixty five percent profit margins or profit margins that

928
00:48:40,599 --> 00:48:44,239
are in line with Nvidia, okay, gold mining companies. So

929
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,079
you know, the world is changing right now. And what

930
00:48:49,119 --> 00:48:51,519
we're trying to say is, if you're like most people

931
00:48:51,599 --> 00:48:56,159
in the world, I guarantee your portfolio doesn't doesn't.

932
00:48:55,519 --> 00:48:58,559
Speaker 3: Illustrate that, right, And I'll show you. You know, our

933
00:48:58,639 --> 00:49:01,239
main value portfolio is up fifteen on the air. We're

934
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,119
going to show you how am I guaranteeing those returns?

935
00:49:04,199 --> 00:49:05,119
Know what about?

936
00:49:05,159 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 5: What I am showing is, guys, look at the opportunities

937
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,280
that exists out here, we ain't the only game in town.

938
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:15,679
And you and and furthermore, the average investor around the

939
00:49:15,679 --> 00:49:19,000
world has never been more concentrated in US stocks. Okay,

940
00:49:19,079 --> 00:49:21,920
now is you know with with every investment, there's a

941
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:23,840
time we make the investment and there's a time where

942
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:25,159
we take the profits.

943
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:26,039
Speaker 3: Yep.

944
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:31,199
Speaker 5: If US stocks have never been more overvalued when compared

945
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to the rest of the world, when would be a

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good time to know when you should take some money

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off the table?

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Speaker 3: If only there was probably probably what that happens.

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Speaker 1: And so if only there was a clue. So I

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can't say more than this, I can simply say otherwise

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have to do the disclaimer. You could attend this upcoming

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00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,400
free live webinar are going to Know your Risk podcast

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00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:55,159
dot com legally exactly right. Okay, So that's it. That's

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all I can say that stop.

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Speaker 3: We're in yep, all right, be.

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Speaker 1: Compliance people listening? All right, brother, thank you so much

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for your time. I always enjoy and we will talk

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next week. This is the Todd Hermann Show. Please go,

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be well, be strong, be kind, and make a decision

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for eternity to accept Jesus Christ as your Lord and

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savior and to walk in his light,