Speaker 1: NHL Best Bets for Monday, March thirtieth.
Speaker 2: Welcome in, guys, wager Talk TV puck Time.
Speaker 1: Let's make some money on the ice with a handful
of great games, sides, totals props. We're gonna take a
look at some maybe future boards or teams we think
might make or miss. We'll see if we end up
getting into that. We always talk about the standings this
time of year in the NHL. Just the two of
us today, myself and Carmine Bianco. Carmine probably feeling a
little bit fatigued after a fun time with Johnny, and
I'm feeling a little fatigued after a weekend of moving,
and we're all settled in to the new place. Also
settled in to a big run eight and oh run
in the NHL. Number nine hopefully goes tonight. We'll get
more into that a little bit later in the show.
Carm how are you man?
Speaker 2: Good morning?
Speaker 3: Nice run there man eight? No, I'm good, little tired.
Friday and Saturday in Buffalo went to watch the Sabers
and Red Wings game. Our seats were phenomenal seats right
behind the net, but in like a table setting, so
not even in the stands. It's a really good, really
good venue, really good seats, really good food and drinks,
and not so great a result for the Buffalo, for
the Buffalo Sabers, and more so for for Detroit. But
Savers get a win the next day Yesterday, Yesterday, man,
I got up. You know, like the aging fruits where
a banana. You just watched the stages of a banana.
It's nice and yellow, it's ripe, and then by the
end of the week it is brown. That was my
day yesterday. It just got started great and then just
got progressively worse. It was just let me get by
the Rangers beating Florida, and then I really like my
last three plays of the day, and then the Rain win,
and then everything just sort of went downhill because the
Columbus Blue Jackets can't hold on to a three to
nothing lead in the third period, and I didn't have Columbus.
I had the under so there are so many ways
I could still win. The Bruins get a power play
goal with eleven seconds left and to tie it up,
send it to ot and I just turned the TV
off and didn't want to watch any more sports after that. Andrew,
those are the ones where sometimes you get the bounces
and then sometimes they go against you and you just
you get so sour. But a lot of news the races.
With seventeen, sixteen or seventeen days left, the races are
it is unbelievable. We're going to talk about the Eastern
Conference race in a second. But the big news of
the weekend, my man is back. He's coaching. John Tortorella,
the Human Interview Highlight Reel is back. Bruce Ca City
gone as the Vegas Golden Knights coach Andrew and it
is while there's like eight games left for Vegas. I
think it is what a smart move. It might be
a late move, but it's a smart move. Do you
know why, right?
Speaker 2: What are you thinking?
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a smart move because you change
the coach when you probably have an upcoming schedule that
is completely winnable, and you look at it and you sorry,
you look at it and you see, Okay, Well they
got the Vancouver Connects tonight, a team that's lost five
games in a row, allowed twenty five goals across those
five games. Then they play the Calgary Flames, a team
that is second last in the Western Conference, just ahead
of Vancouver, then they play at Edmonton. That's probably the
bogie of them all. But you should start the John
Torrella coaching era with two wins. Then you play the
Vancouver Canucks again, so you win three out of four games.
Let's say hypothetical that they lose against Edmonton and they
beat the teams are supposed to beat, and all of
a sudden, it looks like a fantastic coaching move that
you brought in a coach who inspired the team win.
In essence, he just beat three three team He won
three games against two teams that are very bad, and
they're back. They're back and feeling good about themselves. But
they have a tough schedule the last four games against
the Seattle Kraken with two games in hand or five
points back in Vegas, and those are two crucial games.
They have to play Colorado and they have to play Winnipeg,
and Winnipeg is right smack dab in the playoff hunt
as well too, with Nashville losing three straight. So smart play,
but it is crucial for them to win at least
three of the next four games.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Yeah, I mean, well, to your point,
karm I always find it funny when a team will
fire their coach, as you said, when they have a
favorable schedule coming up. Because it's like, I think you
could be behind the bench, karm and coach Vegas to
a Vancouver win, you know, or against the Vancouver Canucks.
Doesn't really take you know, the coach of the year
to beat the Vancouver Canucks right now.
Speaker 2: Just ask the Calgary Flames.
Speaker 1: They got the job done rather easily against the Vancouver Canucks.
So you know, the comments section is loving it right now.
Habs relic says, the craziest thing I've seen in fifty
years golfing stars Fance as Marner just announced his retirement.
Speaker 2: Let's switch to a different system.
Speaker 1: Swapped one defensive coach for another one who parks the bus.
You know, I didn't really realize this, KRM, but apparently
Bruce Cassidy was more of a hard ass than I
really thought he was. Like, apparently, even going back to
last year, at certain points maybe he had lost the
room a little bit. And you know, somebody tweeted at
me yesterday asking, hey, look, explain to me what the
heck is the deal with this? And this is more
common than people think. We see this more often people
really think, and it's it all goes to your good friend.
Momentum karm. Momentum is all its takes. And they're in
a playoff spot. There's eight games to go, as habs
Relic is talking about. But as you and I have
talked about, and Brian has mentioned as well, the Pacific
Division has been awful. So how good would they have
been this year if they were in the East Conference
or if they were in a different division, the Central Division?
Speaker 2: Right where would they be?
Speaker 1: So I just figured i'd read this out before you
and I dive into the games, and you got some
great games set up for us today. But Bruce Cassidy's
tenure in Las Vegas one seventy eight, ninety nine and.
Speaker 2: Forty three record, with the fifth best record.
Speaker 1: In the NHL during that span, twenty four playoff wins,
fourth most in that span, two Pacific Division titles and
one Stanley Cup. Carm If you told someone that and
then you told them that coach just got fired, you
might not believe them. And then here's something kind of interesting,
And then you talked about the great schedule they have
and maybe that's a good thing. This is from sin
Bin Vegas talking about people talk about when a coach
gets fired, you know, the team will wake up, and
I love that theory, you know, but listen to this.
This is Tortorella's first ten games with a new team.
He coached Philadelphia five and five, Columbus two and eight,
Vancouver five to four and one, New York six three
and one, Tampa one and nine, New York oh, three
and one. The first couple games for them combined for
nineteen thirty two and two. So it seems like they're
going from one old fashion coach to another old fashion
coach here, Carmen, Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 3: But I don't think Torrella is coming in with eight
games left in the NHL season and getting to play
a new system. I think he's just going to be
a different voice in the dressing room, one that is
going to reaffirm with the players that listen. You guys
in this dressing room have a ton of talent. Let's
put it together and uh and and make a run. Uh.
He's not going to change the system. Nobody changes the
system with eight games left. So I know that some
people are thinking that they're gonna he's going to change
the system. He's not. He's he's just going to try
and get the best out of this team that he can. Uh.
It's a calculated risk, it really is, because at the
end of the day, Aiden Hill and a Kira Schmid
didn't do Bouce Cassady any favors, but the way the
way that they're playing. So a coach can only do
so much if your goaltenders aren't doing it for you.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: Case point, you have Connor McDavid, you have Leon Drysidel,
you have Bouchard, you have a very good team, but
you also have you know, and we're talking about like
last year, the year before, Stuart Skinner and Calvin Picard.
It's if your goalies don't get it done for you. Uh.
And the goalies have to stand on their head sometimes
that then you are in trouble and to go off
on a bit of a tangent. You look at the
Carolina Hurricanes yesterday, a team that played extremely well. We're
all over the Montreal Canadians, but you know what they
couldn't do. They could not solve your man there. What
how do we pronounce his last name again? Andrew de
be Dobish dobis dobis phenomenal they have two rookie goaltenders
and him and Fowler who are playing great hockey. And
and when your goalies are playing well in front of you,
it gives the team in front of you that much
more confidence. So that's what's hurt the Vegas Golden Knights.
Their goaltending this year hasn't been the same, Andrew. So,
but with that said, let's talk about tonight's game. Yes,
we are going to talk about a team that is
minus three point fifty eight because of this, So, Andrew,
there's got to be a different way of playing this one.
And I know that sometimes one of the biggest mistakes
you can make as a tapper is trying to find
a play within a game instead of just passing on
it completely. Now you have to pass on the money line.
You have to. You can't be as even if they
were to win this game nine out of ten times,
you cannot be taking minus three fifty eight. I don't
see it. You could take it. What about a first
period play? Do I minus a half plus one oh
two on Vegas if you figure they're going to come
out for their new coach and play extremely well, is
that the plague?
Speaker 2: I don't see why not.
Speaker 1: The funny thing is karm like, you look at this
Vancouver Canucks team and just look at their recent efforts
they've had. They give up six against the Lightning, three
against the Blues, the Blues shut them down, five against
the Ducks, four nothing shutout loss against the Kings, and
a seven to three loss against the Calgary Flames.
Speaker 2: You know it's bad when the Calgary.
Speaker 1: Flames are beating you seven to three, like that's the
Calgary Flames.
Speaker 2: They're not a very good team.
Speaker 1: So that tells you all you have to know about
what's going on with this Vancouver Canucks team. So you know, Karen,
I used to say to you, well, I feel like
I'm a little bit late to the trend or you know,
maybe this is going to be a bounce back spot.
Forget about that. This is a team that's awful. They're
giving up goals against everybody. I think the best way
to go about this game is to just look at
that first period, as you mentioned, and you could even
look at the first period team total for Vegas and
get an even better number at plus one seventy five
for Vegas to get over one and a half goals
in the first period, you're getting a minus three p
fifty money line favorite. The minus a half goal is
a pretty good price as well. Or you're gonna get
Vegas to come out and score two goals in the
first period at plus one seventy five. The thing is is,
I was looking at this game and I was like, Okay,
do we go over one and a half in the
first period or do we look at this game and say, Okay,
the Vancouver Canucks just gave up seven goals. Typically that's
a spot where I like to respect a team's defensive abilities.
Speaker 2: But there's a problem here, Karl.
Speaker 1: I don't respect Vancouver's defensive bounce back at all. I
don't think they have it in them to bounce back.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Andrew, you know the weird thing with it, and
it's something that you always have to take into consideration
as far as like how quick does the change happen
in the dressing room? How quick does the change happen
for the Vegas Golden Knights? You know, I mean, like,
you know, I'm just tossing out ideas on the first
period with the Golden Knights, But you know, let's have
a look at some numbers also, Andrew, because I think
it's important last ten games, last ten games, because I
think Brian's talked about the fact that the Vegas gold
the Knights don't always have great starts to their games
last ten games. The two worst teams in the NHL
are and this is on the straight money line, the
Tampa Bay Lightning and then the Vegas Golden Knights. The
Tampa Bay Lightning have only led in two of their
last ten games home and away combined. They've trailed six
times and they've been twice. The Vegas Golden Knights have
only led twice in ten games home and away combined.
They've trailed in seven games and been tied in one
minus seven thirteen seven to fifteen units for the Vegas
Golden Knights. And if you want to look a little further,
the Vegas Golden Knights their last ten games on home ice,
they are three four and three lead, three times, tied,
three times, trailed four times. You're minus two and a
half units if you're betting them. And then one more
and that is that is the Vancouver Canucks and the
Vancouver Canucks. In their last ten games. The Vancouver Canucks
are two six and two, two leads six times, They've
trailed twice. They they've been tied at the end of
twenty minutes on the road their last ten games, fourth
worst in the NHL. So, yeah, it's bad.
Speaker 2: But the analytics I start.
Speaker 3: With this, I start this whole thing with how about
the Vegas Golden Knights in the first period on the line.
And that's what I talk about. You try and find
a play within a number of minus three fifty eight
that you think might have some value, but then the
analytics tell you it has no value whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Well, the thing is is the funny if if you're
like to play this game on a computer, Vegas hasn't
been that bad last five games. Expected goals for Carolina, Philly, Colorado, Minnesota,
New York Islanders, Anaheim Ducks, and the Vegas Golden Knights
one two, three, four, five six seven in the entire
National Hockey League and expected goals for per game. You
know their numbers right now, three point three three expected
goals for per game. It's kind of like what you
just said. Was it Bruce Cassidy's fault that their goalies
weren't stopping pucks? Was it Bruce Cassidy's fault the star
players weren't scoring goals. And if I go over to
the other section here with high danger scoring chances per game.
Speaker 2: This one's even crazier.
Speaker 1: It's top ten for this team, ten high danger scoring
chances per game for the Vegas Golden Knights, and they're
putting up the poor numbers they do. So I'm going
to go back to what you already said, Carmen. I'm
going to just reiterate it. When this team goes on
a couple game winning streak and people start to say, oh, torderella,
this tortorella, that let's not forget about the teams they're
about to play with the upcoming schedule.
Speaker 3: Yep. We've said torderella so many times that I'm now
thinking of the Italian pasta tordellini and thinking, I'm going
to have that for lunch after the show with a nice,
nice atrabiata sauce, which is at a beata sauce, Andrew,
if you don't know, it is spicy Italian sauce. That
sounds pretty good to get my day going, because I
can't wait till like eleven o'clock or whatever time the
Vegas game starts. You know, I actually Andrew completely missed
out at the beginning of the show. You know, the
one positive of the trip to Buffalo. We found a
couple of nice pubs. Southern Tier was one one of them.
I won four hundred dollars on power Ball. I got
three numbers in the Powerball bonus with the multiplier four
x multiplier, so I won four hundred US, which means
I have to go back to the States in order
to collect my four hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: It's a good excuse to go home, go back.
Speaker 3: I also watched the lady walk into the dollar store
with two bags, fill it up with all cleaning supplies,
and then rush out of the door and not pay
for anything. So it is staff doesn't staff at any
location right now. It doesn't stop you from doing anything.
Speaker 1: So well, KRM, I used to work at the as
you talk about the LCBO. We have it called NSLC
where I live, and you weren't allowed to do anything
when you saw people leaving with stuff, so like you
just see it happen and like in front of you
were like, hey, you can't take that wine bottle, and
you know what am I gonna do? I was a
college student. I'm not getting paid enough to chase some
guy down for some couple bottles of wine or a
beer or vodka. And then the funny thing is there
was another store that was down the road from where
I worked, So if we ended up catching someone before
they did it, we would call the other store and say, hey,
just so you know, there's probably gonna be someone coming
down to try and rob you guys too, And then
they would call us twenty minutes later and say, yeah,
you're right, they tried to do it to.
Speaker 2: Us, and yeah, as a worker, you can't do anything
about it.
Speaker 3: No, Well, because the store's liability, they don't want the
employees getting injured and then suing the company for getting injured,
so they just say, let them steal it. It's the
cost of doing business. I just saw video this weekend,
and we're gonna get back to hockey. I saw actually
this morning of the newest thing is robbing jewelry stores
in malls. Well, this one guy's robbed the jewelry store
and he's running. One guy grabs his friend and is
holding into the ground while and he continues to run,
and another guy steps out of like nowhere and clothes
lines the guy and he went down like a gummy bear.
He's just on the ground. You're like, is that guy dead?
And it's just yep, there you go. You I mean,
people are starting to get sick of what is happening
in the world nowadays. You know what's happening, Andrew, the
race in the Eastern Conference before we get to our
second game. Look at this, boys, Look at this. This
is fifth through twelve. The Boston Bruins ninety two points,
the New York Islanders, and the Pitts Penguins. We're going
to talk about shortly ninety nine and ninety eight points.
They could flip positions at the end of tonight's game
if it becomes a game that Pittsburgh wins in regulation
and not in not in overtime. Columbus right there, eighty
eight points, Detroit Red Wings, Auto Senators, Philadelphia Flyers all
there eighty six points, and even the Washington Capitals on
the outside looking in but five points back. Andrew, how's
this going to shake out? Because I've written off I
rode off Washington in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Boston. I
think I wrote off four of those teams about a
month ago, and they're all there, So don't listen to me.
Speaker 1: Well, what it really goes to show is that these
teams that are really good, they have to be good
for a long time, like they you cannot, like the
Ottawa Senator is. Being one of the best teams in
twenty twenty six is something we can't ignore.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: You look at some of these teams that have really
turned it on, it's extremely impressive, and you know, it
just goes to show how big one singular game is.
Speaker 2: And car I mentioned this to.
Speaker 1: Brian, I believe on Friday, and I want your thoughts
on this because I would love to I don't think
there's really a way we could track this, but I
would love to figure out exactly what the total over
under has been with playoff teams compared to non playoff
teams with the past couple weeks of the season, because
I think when you look right now at these teams
that are out of the playoffs, they're in a lot
of highest scoring games. They it's kind of like what
you know, we used to say last year, they're not
blocking as many shots. You don't care as much, you know,
But the teams that are going towards the playoffs, every
single minute you're out there on the ice matters, and
one thing that it's a big problem. I was talking
to a good friend Jeff about this, and he said
that teams are waiting.
Speaker 2: For overtime too much, karm.
Speaker 1: If the game is too to two and there's eight
minutes to go in the game, these teams should not
be able to just sign a contract agreement and say, hey,
let's go get one point.
Speaker 2: Each and let's go off to overtime. I don't think
that's really fair.
Speaker 1: And that's actually, right now a problem in the NHL
that I think needs to be dealt with.
Speaker 3: That's where I'm going to disagree with you, Andrew, And
I'll tell you why I disagree with you, because I
look at it like any other sport. I mean, we
have these discussions during the NFL season in week seventeen
and Week eighteen where you get teams or players or
coaches who are in a playoff battle saying, oh, look
at cac Rest in their players in Week eighteen and
they're playing Denver, and we need Denver to lose. If
you took care of business all year, you wouldn't need
Denver to lose in Week eighteen.
Speaker 2: The NHL, at the NFL, I'm not talking about that.
Speaker 3: Why should why should KC put their players at risk?
So by the same token and a thinner stretch, I'm
going to thinner stretch. If some of these other teams
took care of business when they needed to one games
in regulation instead of getting loser points in OT, they
would not be in the positions that they are right now,
and they in a much better spot. You know. I
saw the argument of you know, look at this team
that's outside of the playoffs, and they have more regulation
wins than the team that is second or third in
the NHL playoffs right now, and is because the team
that's in second got to ot a lot more in
one games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then.
Speaker 3: They didn't they picked up points. So that though your
own business, yeah.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, but just hear me out. Hear
me out for a second.
Speaker 1: It's the teams that are playing each other like in
the moment, I don't care about the I completely agree
with your take on that. It's your problem. You put
yourself in that position. What I'm saying is is that
the teams that we have playing tonight, these two teams,
the game is so important to both of them that
if there's five minutes to go, in the game. You
gotta think that they're both going to be happy to
go to overtime and get one point. That's what I'm
saying is that I don't care. I agree with you.
What other teams do is none of your business. But
what these two teams do together, and as sports betters,
we should be able to take advantage of it. But
I think right now that some of these teams that
are so desperate it's kind of it's kind of hurting
the product in my opinion, because they literally stop trying
to score goals with five minutes to go in the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, from a Benky perspective, its it. It's definitely tough. Listen,
I get it from a fans perspective. If I'm a
Red Wings fan and with five minutes left, they lock
it down because they want to pick up at least
one point, uh and possibly two, and that's going to
help them make it into the playoffs. By all means,
go ahead and go ahead and do it. The way
in which you play the game is so much different
during the last fifteen games of the regular season than
it is the first fifteen or the middle fifteen, so
on and so forth. So yes, with that said, I
don't know. I can't even read that. Yeah, it's uh,
it's not really A guy fifty seven year old with
like poly I could have. I could have cataracts right now.
I can't see anything. Let's see.
Speaker 2: Uh wait, there we go.
Speaker 1: Anyway, anyway, here, if if the Penguins win tonight in regulation,
they have an eighty three point three percent chance of
making the playoffs. If they lose in regulation, fifty seven
point two percent chance of making the playoffs. For the Islanders,
same thing, win in regulation eighty two point nine percent,
fifty five point six percent, if the Penguins win in
overtime eighty point seven, and if they lose in overtime
sixty eight point three. So this is just the biggest
game of the night here, Karen, think about that. You
win tonight in RAG eighty three percent. Chance, you lose
tonight in RAG you only have a fifty seven percent chance.
Speaker 2: That's a very big twist.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's let's get to it. You look at it,
and Andrew. The first thing that surprises you is the
New York Islanders only minus one twenty four at home.
And I get it. But Eli Sorocan, the goalie advantage
clearly lies with the New York Islanders. Sorokan has been
great this season. Sewart Skinner projected goalie for I'm seeing
Sewart Skinner as a projected goalie. Sorocan is confirmed, so
we don't have to worry about that too. Forty seven
goals against average, nine to fourteen save percentage. You know,
the one thing Andrew is he's made so many starts,
and he's played well right now, but so many starts
at what point? And that's just because big save Dave
isn't doing anything for them right now. But at some
point this guy is gonna wear down. It is tough
because you would hope that they would have a playoff
position sewn up by now, and maybe winning tonight in
regulation put some one step further to doing that. But
look at his number last twelve starts twelve appearances in
the Islanders last thirteen games. Hasn't been given much of
arrest there six and five record, but a two point
five zero goals against average. The guys, the guy's been
on fire. They have to score goals for him. I
don't know where the goals are coming from tonight. I
think this is one of those ones Andrew, Like you said,
I mean it's it. Maybe it's a good segue into
it where the last six seven minutes of this game
it's on lockdown. I'm taking the under even money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Stuart Skinner, last couple of games eight fifty seven
s eight percentage, but expected goals against three point two
one goals against average three points sixty seven. But I
think that when you look at this matchup, as you mentioned,
karm So, Rocan's been playing a ton but they have
no other option. Yesterday it ended up being a blessing
for me because I was gonna take Columbus if it
was Corpus solo, and then Boston ended up going with
Swayman again. And we're seeing that happen a little bit
more where teams are playing the same goalie on back
to backs or more often. And you've been the one
preaching it the most that the New York Islanders and
car Maybe that hurts the Islanders come playoff time because
they've got the same goalie play and it feels like
seventy five games every year.
Speaker 2: It's gonna make you a little bit fatigued.
Speaker 1: But yeah, looking at the offensive stats right now for
these teams, there's not a lot going on as far
as the shots on goal per game mediocre, you know,
twenty six, twenty seven to twenty eight, not reaching.
Speaker 2: That thirty mark.
Speaker 1: Goals four per game two point eight last ten games
for the New York Islanders, we are seeing close to
three point four for the Penguins. But I do think
that a lot of this play has to do with
Sidney Crosby and Avgunny Malkin. This is such a huge
game that you gotta think if those two players can play,
they're gonna get out there and they're gonna suit it up.
They're gonna want to play. When you look at that
game over the weekend, though, KRM, I could not believe
the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Speaker 2: Excuse me.
Speaker 1: That game was last Thursday over the Penguins and the
and the Senators. What a battle that was in a
shootout for the Penguins to be able to pull that off.
They had a tough one on Saturday. But if we
do see Crosby and Malklin back in here the game
that they played on Saturday against Dallas, it's almost like
they said, you know what, sid you know what, Gino,
we don't need you to play in this one. We
need you to play in the one on Monday they
lost six to three. Bad game offense or defensively. You
gotta think this is gonna be a tight checking game here.
I'm with you. I like the under, but I am
tempted to take the underdog in this one. The only
thing is is that I worry about this Penguins defense.
Part of me, deep down inside kind of thinks that
the Islanders correlate with the under, the Penguins correlate with
the over. It just depends on which version of Stuart
Skinner and which version of the Penguins defense we're going
to get when it comes to this game. But maybe under.
I never usually do this, But what about under one
and a half? First period? Car, we play a lot
of the first period overs. What about first period under
one and a half?
Speaker 3: I don't know those Those are sometimes tough, but I
can see it. I can definitely see it here. You know,
Skinner might be good very early on, maybe not good
later on when they get more shots on. We're seeing
and the reason why some of these overs are hitting.
Take a look, if you guys run the numbers and
maybe I'll do this later on in the week, maybe
on Wednesday, where there's a fewer games that discuss. But
I'm going to show you the shots on goal per
game mid season, and like now, you're seeing some games
where a team doesn't register their first shot on goal. Andrew,
and I think the Montreal Canadians yesterday didn't get their
first shot on goal until there was about seven minutes
left in the first period. It didn't affect them. They
went on to win the game. But we're seeing that
a lot where there's just not a lot of shots
on a goal happening. Kind of saw that in the
Florida and New York Rangers game as well too. Fewer
shots on goal, fewer chances if your high danger chances,
for your scoring chances, and if the goalies are playing well,
Fewer goals. Nobody likes Betty nunders, but it's the right
thing to do, unless you got the Columbus one from
yesterday and you lose it with eleven seconds left. But
I digress, Andrew. The good thing about Sorocan starting tonight,
you know what it is tomorrow tomorrow with big save
Dave with his four thirteen goals against average at nine
sixty eight save percentage in the month of March is
the starting goaltender in Buffalo against the Buffalo Sabers.
Speaker 2: That's the good news, you feel.
Speaker 3: Can you feel a car mine play tomorrow on the
Buffalo Sabers. I'm not sure how I'm gonna do it,
Probably a regulation play. It'll probably be low enough, probably
about one point thirty that I don't need to take
a regulation play on them. But I'm gonna be on
the Sabers tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Man, I don't blame you. I do not blame you
at all.
Speaker 1: And that just that goes to show too, the urgency
for how important this game will be. You know, you're
playing a division rival, You're playing you know your best goaltender.
Tomorrow comes. When tomorrow comes, you got to worry about today.
A lot of players and coaches have been saying that
in interviews. Right now, Hey, you know, we're not worried
about the next game until we play this game right now,
the game that's in front of you.
Speaker 2: But big save Dave. And then you know who is.
Speaker 1: The worst goalie that I can't believe got the win
yesterday is Jonas Johansson.
Speaker 2: Yeah wait, actually no, wait did they even get the win?
I don't even know if they let's see, oh they didn't.
Yeah yeah he got the win. Yeah yeahon three to
two for Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: That goalie is giving up like four expected goals a game.
Speaker 2: It seems like I'm shocked, and you know it.
Speaker 3: Is just I talked about my frustration yesterday, win my
first play of the day, and then everything just spent
kind of downhill from there. Like even live game betting,
I had the over in the Tampa Bay game. After
the score is first period five and a half, it
is three to two, empty net, and the Tampa guy
skates in all alone. He doesn't shoot on goal, He skate,
takes a couple more strides, and then he puts it
into the net point one after the goal. After the
game expired, the puck crossed the line, so the goal
did not count. Just put it into the net. Hey,
come on, man, or whoever it was, it is Listen.
We talk about our wins, but I love to vent
about the losses, even if they're not client plays and
they're just my in game of bets, because it just
shows you the reality of sports betting that a guy
who could have put the puck in from the blue
line skates to the face off circle and then puts
it in and he's point one past the clock. Is
just anyways, Andrew, let's get onto one another exciting Oh wait, yeah,
go ahead.
Speaker 1: Just one guy. I forgot to mention who's playing extremely well.
I know it's not the prop segment right now, but
Eric Carlson playing extremely well. And there was a play
that went viral over the weekend. I don't know if
he saw it. One of the players on Dallas grabbed
Carlson's stick, ripped it out of his arms and kind
of threw it away, and you could hear the hot
mic of Carlson saying, what the hell, you're the worst
referee ever.
Speaker 2: You're the biggest joke in the world.
Speaker 1: And then Dallas scored and I'll tell you whether it's goals, assists,
shots on goal. Right now, Eric Carlson is turning back
the clock for the Ottawa Senators days. He might be
someone worth looking at for props when it comes to
Islanders versus Penguins tonight.
Speaker 3: You know, I wish I would pay a subscription for
a channel in which all the players are miked up,
including the referees. As referee and it's it's it's not
PG thirteen. It's rated. Are you get to hear everything
they say on the ice? How epic would that be?
Speaker 2: Players would hate that, wouldn't they?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Who cares?
Speaker 3: Who cares?
Speaker 2: It'd be awesome.
Speaker 3: I don't care. Uh, you know who does care? These
two teams, Andrew, because they're still battling for a playoff spot.
Let's get you a better price one ten both ways?
This morning, when I created this graphic, uh total tier
at six, the Sharks they looked dead in the water.
Hey that's a pretty good uh analogy or atage.
Speaker 2: But they are not bad joke dad joke?
Speaker 3: Yeah that's a dig jo but but no, no, a
dad joke would be But will the Sharks be singing
the Blues tonight? Andrew? Give me your thoughts on this game? Singing?
Speaker 1: All right, I'll give you. I'll give you that one
that is that is probably true. Look, when it comes
to this game, I'll just say that this is a
Sharks team that was closing in on a playoff position. Man,
this team looked alright, they looked like a pretty good team,
and then they crashed and burned pretty much after February,
I would say, after the Olympic break maybe after Maclin
Celebraty got back from the Olympics.
Speaker 2: Maybe he was a bit fatigued after that.
Speaker 1: Not entirely sure when it comes to that, But all
I know is this San Jose Sharks team has looked
incredibly different.
Speaker 2: And I'll tell you what. There's one guy that.
Speaker 1: Has looked very, very good lately, and his name is
Joel Hofer. This guy has been phenomenal. When you look
at UH say percentage versus expected save percentage, Joel Hofer
right now plus eight point two percent. To give you
the context on this slate right now, the next guy
is Alex Nadalkovich at minus five point eight percent. So
this guy is plus eight point two percent. His expected
goals against per game two point three two goal state
above expected one point nine to nine. He has been phenomenal.
If Joel Hofer is in goal tonight, I want to
back this team. And the funny thing is I had
a big five percent play on Saturday carm on the
Blues and I headed against the mapple Leiefs.
Speaker 2: Guess who was goal, Jordan Binnington. So now Joelhofer is
playing well and he's well rested going into this game.
I do like the Saint Louis Blues in this matchup.
But I'm going to just serve up another under for you.
I think this game goes under. Look.
Speaker 1: Nadalkovich has you know, not been very good, but I
think the scoring has really slowed down for the San
Jose Sharks, so I lean towards the under. But it's
kind of crazy when you look at it. I'm looking
at last three games advanced metrics for every single goaltender
on this slate, the number one goalie say percentage versus
expected plays for the Blues and the worst goalie place.
Speaker 2: For the San Jose Sharks. Is it really that simple,
carm you tell me?
Speaker 3: Is it really that simple? The under has been the
under's been pretty good, at least this year. You look
at Andrew, I think the last couple of games that
these two have played, Saint Louis bet the wins in
Santos A three to two in OT. UH, Saint Louis
wins in OT again, why not go with OT. For
the last five games Andrew have gone overtime between these
two teams, teams that you mentioned, UH, and again this
is another example of it. UH. One point for these
teams is pretty good. Two points would be great. You
look at it, the Sharks have three games in hand
on Nashville, were holding down that last spot, and they're
what four points back of them, so these are like
crucial games from there. You know, they're returning home off
a three game road trip. One of those losses came
to the Saint Louis team to one away, so I
can I can see the under and why it's at
I'm actually a little surprised why it's at six and
not six and a half. But you know, as far
as the game itself goes, do I think the Sharks
can win this one? Yeah, I think they're still smack
dab in the middle of this playoff thing. But you know,
the Blues, they took a bit of a beat and
then they reeled out four straight wins, so they're right
back in there. The one bad thing about the Saint
Louis Blues when I look at it, Andrew, is they
would be in a playoff spot if they were a
better team on the road. I think there's something like
thirteen or they're fourteen and twenty two or something like
that on the road this season. Fifteen to twenty two
on the road this season. You got to be a
lot better with those splits if you want to be
considered a playoff team or be in a playoff spot,
and they're just not there right now. So you know,
as far you know, as far as the game goes
for me, I would lean. I would lean to the
Sharks tonight, returning on home ice. Their fans are going
to give them a boost, and I think it's a
game in which I think they can and should win.
Speaker 1: And when you look at this game, do you think
this number is weird? Come based on the the goalies,
based on the form for these teams, Like, do you
think the number is weird?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Absolutely? Like this game here and I'm not sure
if anyone can bring up the odds on this one.
And I'll see if I can, if I can do
it real quick, and I do have it here. So
what would it surprise me? Absolutely? Would it surprise me
if this game went to overtime? Andrew? Absolutely not? Like
the the the draw in this one is plus three
hundred at DK. Would it surprise me if it finished it?
Tye going into into into ot like I said, not
at all. The the last five games between these two
teams have gone to overtime. The other game was forty three.
And if you want to go back a little further,
five of the last six games have gone to overtime
between these these two teams. So what happened, what's happened
in the past does not predict what is going to
happen in the future. But both games this season, at
the very least, have gone to overtime between these two
I think there's an importance of it. If this game
is close or tied late in the game, they're taking
fewer chances. Absolutely, these teams are taking fewer chances. Give
me my point. Let's go to ot. Let's play three
on three and see if your three guys can beat
my three guys. Would not surprise me at all. But
I'm gonna take the Sharks. Even though the Blues are
on a four game win streak heading into this three
of those wins, they believe came on the road. They
played Washington, Vancouver, and San Jose. I think in three
of those ones they're on the road here, they haven't
been the best road team. Give me the Sharks, all.
Speaker 2: Right, you know what, Let's see what happens with this game.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna just lock in the under because I
am just as sick person that thinks that San Jose
is capable of playing an under because I trust the
Blues defense, but we're gonna find out if the San
Jose Sharks can do it as well. Alex Nadalkovic, please
don't be a tank commander tonight. Please don't be a tank.
Please be a goaltender for us. We'll see what happens
with this one. This is gonna be a good one
to follow, and I'm curious. We want you guys to
comment below, whether in the live chat or afterwards.
Speaker 2: Let us know how you guys go.
Speaker 1: About handicapping the last couple weeks of the NHL season
some teams.
Speaker 2: And it's exciting, Karm.
Speaker 1: We've been talking about this for a few weeks together,
and it's finally getting closer. Your vacation's getting closer. My
vacation's getting closer. The playoffs are almost here, man, and
we've got eight or nine games left for a lot
of these teams. I want to know how everybody in
the chat handicaps these games, because for me, for the
most part, excluding this game, I'm looking at taking unders
with playoff teams and overs with non playoff teams, especially
down the stretch. So we'll see what happens here, Carl,
I want to bring something up here because I'm pretty
fired up about this. We got a good deal coming
out for every handicapper soon. But I've got this great, great,
great promo code for people to use today. This code
is NHL fifty NHL fifty to get the remainder of
the NHL season regular season plus playoffs.
Speaker 2: You're pretty much just.
Speaker 1: Getting a playoff package and the remainder of the NHL
season four free. We are on an eight n NHL run.
We are hoping, I am hoping the number nine goes
tonight Monday Night in the NHL. But guys, feel free
use the promo code NHL five zero at WT dot
buzz backslash am. That's WT dot buzz backslash am. Five
percent plays, four percent plays totals run a plus twenty
eight unit run with best that's right now in the NHL.
So let's keep it rolling, guys. As much as we
enjoy people coming on board with one play at a time,
the best way to go about it, Carm, we always
say is the long term NHL fifty, and this deal
will be available for every hockey handicapper this week at
Wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 3: Andrew phenomenal run. It's very tough to win eight straight games.
You're doing it the way you're supposed to do it.
Highlight one game that you really like and go there.
Just keep on winning. Man doing a phenomenal job. And
I'm definitely looking forward to these last two weeks. I
want to have a big week this week, bounce back
a little bit and get things going Tomorrow. My tomorrow,
my mental state, Andrew is going to be a little fragile,
as will be. You know. We got to get back
to hockey here for a same game partly and the
pod play, but it's going to be a little fragile.
And if you guys know why, if you know, you
know it is the Italian team playing tomorrow against Bosnia
for a time what in the World Cup two forty
five Eastern time Italy plays at Bosnia, their favorites. I'm
gonna be recording a couple of free play videos that
will be up on the website tonight. I'm going to
do the Italy Bosnia game that's being played tomorrow and
the Check versus Denmark game and a couple of free
plays and you'll find them on the website little later
on today. So yeah, it'll be a little If Italy
was to miss the World Cup three straight tournaments, they
might burn down the they might burn down Rome. I
don't know what's gonna happen, Andrew, But with that said,
I'm gonna go to you for your same game parlay.
Speaker 1: Let's do it, carm We got the same game parlay
here today. We got a desk Colorado team that's not
too happy right now, feeling very motivated. When you gotta
motivated Colorado team, you look to nobody but the dog
Nathan McKinnon. Five plus shots on goal, it's a lot
to ask, but five plus shots on goal, Karen, it's
even money plus one hundred for this guy to get
five shots. That's it's shocking. Our turry Lekkanen. He's back
in action, he's healthy, he's on the first line. He's
ready to roll for a point for US today. And
Marty Nachez we're gonna go with one assist. He's known
for his goal scoring, known for his flash, but he's
a great assist guy as well, great playmaker out there
on the power plays. Marty Nachius one assist Karen. Let's
start the week off with a four percent best bet
tonight w T dappas slash Am win nine straight games
and hit a plus four thirty five same game parlay.
And yeah, you can see I didn't include one single
Flames player. That's for a reason. We'll go with the Avalanche.
Three picks plus four thirty five. Not a bad price there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's four to thirty five. I like that, man,
cash it. Come on, man, we need we need the
dough a couple little nuggets before I get into my
pod play and then we close it off. I have
now for the people who bought my soccer my World
Cup package to get all the plays during the World
Cup the private discord channel. This old timer has finally
figured out how to set it all up. It's all
set up. The office will be sending out emails to
anyone who has that, who has that World Cup A
package that you purchased, you'll get an invite into the group.
I'm keeping it private because I'm gonna be posting in
game wagers, late breaking news or anything like that, and
I want it. It's obviously going to go to clients
who purchase the package. I still will be tweeting out
some free plays as well too, so I'm not discriminating
against anyone, but I want to take care of the
clients that take care of us as well too, Andrew.
And then what's number two? We are going to be
doing a NHL Playoff survivor on splash sports. Kelly told
me that it can be done. It will be set
up and I will have news before the week is over.
So you guys can sign up at splash sports if
it is legal in your state. I think it's in
most states in the US splash Sports. And we'll give
away some good prizes as well too. With that said, Andrew,
it is time for a pod play and this is
one that I kind of like. So because you talked
about goals in the first period, can it be over?
Can it be under? And again that I like the under,
I am taking the over on the pod play, and
I'll explain why. The Pens last ten games away they
have gone over the first period total in seven of
ten games. The Islanders last ten games at home, they
have gone over the first period total in eight of
ten games. Those are two positive numbers, two profitable numbers.
Over the last ten games, which is a strong sample
size and current sample size. So I am going over
the first period between these two teams. They've played twice
this year. The Pens win four to three at home,
two goals in the first period. Islanders win five to
four at home, three goals in the first period. Let's
keep that trend going over first period minus one and
a half or one a half goals minus won twenty five.
That's your pod play.
Speaker 2: First period over one and a half.
Speaker 1: And you know, Karen, the more I think about it,
the more I think like those games that start to
settle down, they settle down and in the third period,
it's not the first period where they settle down.
Speaker 2: So I like it. Man. I hope you have a
great night. Uh KRM. Soccer plays and hockey plays.
Speaker 1: Guys, if you're not playing Carmines hockey, you're missing out.
Speaker 2: But especially he is dialed in.
Speaker 1: He is locked in, ready to rock with the soccer
and and Carn I don't want to speak for you,
but I'll just say this. We talk about long term
and this isn't even a sales pitch. If you're gonna
be playing soccer, you're gonna be playing the world Cup,
the World Cup qualifiers, get the full tournament package. Guys,
Carmine's your guy, ride with him the whole way through.
You know, I don't think soccer is a sport you
want to pick and choose your spots when to jump in.
You're gonna crush it, karm But you don't want to
have one game here, one game there. People should be
in for the whole entire tournament. That's the way to go.
And uh, Carmine is your guy. So uh you saw
that special up for Hockey ends Soccer.
Speaker 3: No, but I'm going to see if Melissa can get
that up a little later on today as well to
get the rest of the NHL through the Standy Cup
and the World Cup of Soccer. Or you can just
email Melissa at the office at I think it's support
at wager talk dot com and ask for the deal
and she will set it up for you. Listen, I'm
looking forward to it. The last two World Cups Number
one at wager Talk with those with World Cup plays
in each of those are twenty eighteen in the twenty
twenty two and some future bats going up soon after
obviously tomorrow's games and where all the true odds will
be out, Andrew. I'm looking forward to it. It is
great each and every year I mean to be at games.
Everyone becomes an expert, I say, when the World Cup
rolls around. But if someone can't name more than three
players on a team, are they an expert? That's all
I'm gonna say.
Speaker 2: That is for sure.
Speaker 1: And you are my guy, Karen for the games, and
I can't wait to follow along and cheer for it.
I'll be cheering for Canada and I'll be cheering for
Italy because of you and some friends as well.
Speaker 2: Caren. We good to go. That's it.
Speaker 1: First show here for Monday, guys. Once again, I'm fired
up for today. We got the big play eight and
O NHL run forget about the one play, get the
full rest of the season special. NHL fifty is the
promo code to use NHL fifty one nine for every
single play rest of the regular season first round, second round,
third Round, Stanley Cup Finals in this one package. Hopefully
winner number nine goes tonight at WT dot Buzz backslash Am.
Thanks so much for watching. Hit the like button on
the way out. We'll see you next time here on
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