Speaker 1: All right, good morning everyone.
Speaker 2: I am Matt you while I serve the Texas Tribune
Speaker 2: as senior director of Events and Live Journalism. Welcome to
Speaker 2: those joining us in person here at the Tribune studio
Speaker 2: in Austin and those joining us around the state for
Speaker 2: our live presentation of trip cast breaking down the results
Speaker 2: of the twenty twenty sixth Texas Primary with some of
Speaker 2: the state's best politics reporters. And we have a lot
Speaker 2: to talk about today in conversation with tripcast co host
Speaker 2: Eleen or klibanoff panel will discuss results from the Senate
Speaker 2: race battles for the Texas Legislature, what races are going
Speaker 2: to runoffs, and more. Our program will run approximately an hour,
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Speaker 2: have Eleanor introduced today's Tribecast guests. So let's go ahead
Speaker 2: and begin today's program.
Speaker 3: Eleanor, thank you, hello, and welcome to this very special
Speaker 3: episode of the Tribecast Live the Morning After. Addition, I'm
Speaker 3: Eleanor Klebanov, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune.
Speaker 3: Not joined by Matthew Watkins this week, as he is,
Speaker 3: I assume just sleeping off an exciting night of primary results.
Speaker 3: We are very excited to just dive into what last
Speaker 3: night meant, you know, what we're looking at for the
Speaker 3: runoff where things go from here. So I'll go ahead
Speaker 3: and introduce our panelists. We are joined by Renzo Downey,
Speaker 3: lead author of the Texas Tribune subscriber politics newsletter The Blast. Rerenzo,
Speaker 3: thanks for being here, Good to see you. James Barragon,
Speaker 3: anchor at Spectrums Texas Capital Tonight and once and former
Speaker 3: co host of the Texas Trip Cast. Welcome back.
Speaker 1: Hi, Ellan, It's good to be back, Thanks.
Speaker 3: For having thanks for being here. Patrick's v Tech Texas
Speaker 3: Tribune alum, current free agent who stepped in to help
Speaker 3: us with election night. Thank god, Patrick, Thanks for coming
Speaker 3: in from DC.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very happy to be here.
Speaker 3: And bringing US bagels this morning, which was much appreciated.
Speaker 1: I did not get a bagel.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I said, I know, Texas isn't known for bagels,
Speaker 4: So that's the one cultural export I can make.
Speaker 3: It absolutely and last but not lease. Brad Johnson, co
Speaker 3: founder and reporter at Texas Bullpen, thanks for coming two
Speaker 3: floors up.
Speaker 5: Glad to be here. No idea what we're about to
Speaker 5: talk about.
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing to talk about. Very exciting night. Last night
Speaker 3: in some ways sort of played out the way we expected,
Speaker 3: some big surprises. Let's start with the big name race
Speaker 3: that we do have a clear resolution for, which is
Speaker 3: the Democratic primary for Senate. After weeks of i mean
Speaker 3: competing polls by the day, sometimes by the hour, that
Speaker 3: promised a very contentious down to the wire race. What
Speaker 3: we ended up seeing was James Tallerico came through with
Speaker 3: a fairly decisive victory. As of now about he's got
Speaker 3: about fifty three percent of the vote to Jasmine Crockett's
Speaker 3: forty six percent. I mean, Renzo, start us off. What
Speaker 3: happened here? What are we seeing?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Well, I think what we saw last night is that
Speaker 6: having a robust campaign, having the money support behind you
Speaker 6: still matters. In Texas, and you know, the Republicans were
Speaker 6: potentially trying to boost Jasmine Crockett for that seat because
Speaker 6: she would have been a easier general election candidate to beat.
Speaker 6: So I think we're going to see a lot of
Speaker 6: national interest, a lot of national money come into this race.
Speaker 6: And you know there's going to be some time for
Speaker 6: tell Rica to try to shore up, try to shore
Speaker 6: up the Democratic vote because you know, he wrapped that
Speaker 6: up a little bit, you know, two months before Cornin
Speaker 6: or packs that have wrapped theirs up.
Speaker 1: So that's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, James, when you look at sort
Speaker 3: of the map and where tall A Rico performed, I mean,
Speaker 3: what are you taking away from that? I mean we, frankly,
Speaker 3: we just saw a huge Democratic turnout in general. How
Speaker 3: did that sort of help him?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think the Democratic turnout is a testament to
Speaker 1: both of these really exciting young candidates, these rising stars,
Speaker 1: and Jasmine Crockett and James Taller Rico, they both said
Speaker 1: they wanted to expand the electorate, go after young voters
Speaker 1: who have not voted, and every Democrat has to say
Speaker 1: that this is their playbook. We've heard every Democratic candidate
Speaker 1: to talk about this, but they happened to deliver. And
Speaker 1: tall Rico yesterday in his speech afterwards, said basically, we
Speaker 1: got those young voters. We also got independents and Republicans
Speaker 1: who had not voted for Democrats before. And so his
Speaker 1: strategy worked. His campaign worked because that's what he said
Speaker 1: he wanted to do from the beginning beginning right expand
Speaker 1: that electorate, reach out to independence and voters that he
Speaker 1: thought were persuadable, and he seemed to deliver. And also
Speaker 1: just to the regions that we're talking about, we're looking
Speaker 1: at the early voting. Last night, we were seeing Jasmine
Speaker 1: Crockett perform well in places like Harris County and Dallas County.
Speaker 1: And we can talk more about Dallas County if we want,
Speaker 1: because I know that was a whole debacle. But she
Speaker 1: was hitting high fifties, not really in the sixties, maybe
Speaker 1: low sixties in the places that she needed to be
Speaker 1: really really overperforming. Tall Rico up and down Central Texas
Speaker 1: in the early votes sometimes was at seventy five to
Speaker 1: twenty five. I mean, he was a wrecking ball. And
Speaker 1: that's what you need. You need people who are gonna
Speaker 1: sort of understand the assignment and then execute it. And
Speaker 1: he did execute it. And you know, I think it's
Speaker 1: a real testament to Talla Rico because, as you said,
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett had the higher name ID. She's all over
Speaker 1: cable news, She's been on CNN, MSNBC, whatever you want.
Speaker 1: She had the higher name recognition in the early polls.
Speaker 1: I think throughout most of this I thought that Crockett
Speaker 1: probably had the edge. And I have to give kudos
Speaker 1: to Rebecca Allen, politics editor over there waving at me.
Speaker 1: She's gonna sort of lurd this over me for months,
Speaker 1: but Rebecca thought that taller Rico was going to win.
Speaker 1: I was on the Crockett bus for until maybe like
Speaker 1: five days ago, until Friday or Thursday, until like last week,
Speaker 1: because I didn't see her executing the plan in the
Speaker 1: way that Tallarico was executing. I mean, he had a
Speaker 1: ground game. He has a solid ground game. It seemed
Speaker 1: like he had a better way of dealing with the
Speaker 1: Dallas County situation. I mean, I talked to the Crockett
Speaker 1: campaign yesterday about what they were doing about voters being
Speaker 1: turned away, and they're like, we're jumping on radio and
Speaker 1: social media, which is fine, But I was talking to
Speaker 1: other campaigns in Dallas who were saying, like, we've got
Speaker 1: people there to direct them to the correct precinct, so
Speaker 1: we can beat this course to death as much as
Speaker 1: we want. But social media is not real life. You
Speaker 1: still got to have the ground game, and tall Rico
Speaker 1: had the ground game.
Speaker 3: I mean, Patrick, I'm curious you're read on this because
Speaker 3: I think there isn't. I think when Jasmine Crockett entered
Speaker 3: the race, there was sort of this, maybe some frustrations
Speaker 3: like what we're gonna spend I mean, Colin Allred was
Speaker 3: already in the race, but we're gonna spend a lot
Speaker 3: of time and money on a primary when we should
Speaker 3: be focusing on November. The counter argument is, you know,
Speaker 3: primaries test candidates, they show the strength of a campaign.
Speaker 3: They'd let you see where those weaknesses are. It seems
Speaker 3: like in some ways this is a you know, example
Speaker 3: of that that you can start to see where the
Speaker 3: cracks are in a campaign before November. What's sort of
Speaker 3: your read on the Crockett campaign.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a few things on that. I mean, that's certainly the.
Speaker 4: Optimistic take from Democrats who watched this contentious primary play out.
Speaker 1: I mean, they.
Speaker 4: Cringed a little bit, but they also said, you know,
Speaker 4: this is you know, a great moment for us, almost
Speaker 4: unprecedented in recent history to have a statewide primary with
Speaker 4: two well known, well funded candidates duking it out, you know,
Speaker 4: having a good faith debate of ideas and political strategies.
Speaker 4: And I do think that there's some legitimacy to that
Speaker 4: and the idea that you know, they were each of
Speaker 4: them were made better candidates through this process. I think
Speaker 4: that this process did reveal that, you know, as we've
Speaker 4: all I think agreed so far, that Crockett did not
Speaker 4: have as organized of a campaign as some of her
Speaker 4: supporters would have hoped for, which would have had potentially
Speaker 4: devastating impacts in the general election if she were the nominee,
Speaker 4: and I'm sure Democrats would like to know about those
Speaker 4: shortcomings now in her political operation versus if she becomes
Speaker 4: a nominee and has to go up against the Publicans
Speaker 4: are going to just always be better organized and better
Speaker 4: funded in Texas in most cases. Number two, You know,
Speaker 4: I would say that particularly the outreach that James Tallerco
Speaker 4: did to Hispanic voters benefited him. I think in both
Speaker 4: a way that helped in the primary, but also a
Speaker 4: general election. I mean, I think Hispanic voters were crucial
Speaker 4: for him in winning the primary getting the actual nomination,
Speaker 4: but it also doubled as a good test run for
Speaker 4: a general election where that voting block is going to
Speaker 4: be up for grabs. I mean, we have seen Hispanic voters,
Speaker 4: you know, particularly in South Texas geographically speaking, you know,
Speaker 4: become an increasingly competitive voting block between the two parties.
Speaker 4: And so you know, tall Rico was smart to focus
Speaker 4: on that in the primary because it also will help
Speaker 4: him and make him a better candidate in the general potentially.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, Brad, we saw this morning Jasmine Crockett conceded
Speaker 3: struck a pretty unify or unity tone. I mean, what
Speaker 3: do you see. I think let's talk about you know,
Speaker 3: we're going to come back to Tallarico's odds in the
Speaker 3: general once we sort of talk about who who is
Speaker 3: going to be on the Republican side, But in terms
Speaker 3: of where the party stands unifying behind this candidate as
Speaker 3: sort of their marquee, big name, what do you see
Speaker 3: in there?
Speaker 5: I think Democrats decided not to give Republicans exactly what
Speaker 5: they wanted, which was a Jasmine Crockett top of the
Speaker 5: ticket candidacy. Obviously it's a counterfactual. We'll never know how
Speaker 5: a Jasmin Crockett would have performed in November, but there
Speaker 5: is a reason the NRSC spent so much money trying
Speaker 5: to get her in the race. And I think she
Speaker 5: was always going to at least she was always close
Speaker 5: to getting in the race without that, but they felt
Speaker 5: a need and a desire to do that, and there's
Speaker 5: a reason for that action. Speak louder than rhetoric on this,
Speaker 5: I think. Another big takeaway for me, and I said
Speaker 5: this last night on the health site known as Twitter
Speaker 5: big money.
Speaker 3: Known as xRy.
Speaker 5: Please thanks for the correction. I appreciate that big money
Speaker 5: plays very bigly in this state, especially in a state
Speaker 5: in state wide races. You know, similar to James, I
Speaker 5: thought Crockett was going to get the nod. Maybe it
Speaker 5: would have been very tight, you know. Uh, Tellerico certainly
Speaker 5: had momentum, but with all the polling being a wreck,
Speaker 5: which is another thing we should discuss, pulling was a mess.
Speaker 5: I leaned on, Well, the celebrity is probably gonna win.
Speaker 5: The other race I pointed to in making that argument
Speaker 5: was age. It didn't turn out that way, either it
Speaker 5: went the other way, and it turns out the person
Speaker 5: with that spent more money in both of those races
Speaker 5: came out on top, and came out on top by
Speaker 5: a decent margin. You know, nobody thought Mace Middleton was
Speaker 5: going to exceed Chip Roy and even get close. It
Speaker 5: was gonna be, you know, tough to do. So money's
Speaker 5: not everything, and it's not the whole picture of running
Speaker 5: a good campaign. But if you just look at the
Speaker 5: the ad impact spread on television ad spending, tall Rico
Speaker 5: outspent Crockett a lot to have a little can I
Speaker 5: can I.
Speaker 1: Just jump in here because I think it's I think
Speaker 1: it's interesting, and I do think to Patrick's point that
Speaker 1: this primary was good for both Crockett and tall Rico.
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of lessons learned. But I
Speaker 1: think Talla Rico. The reason why I was on the
Speaker 1: Crockett train so much is that in this day and age,
Speaker 1: sort of when there's a President Trump and the White House,
Speaker 1: politics are so combative, there no holds barred. Crockett presented
Speaker 1: somebody who said, I can rival that on the Democratic side,
Speaker 1: which seemed like something that Democratic candidates wanted, and I
Speaker 1: think they still do. I mean, it's what's the what's
Speaker 1: the score of fifty three, forty seven or whatever. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's still a tight race. I mean it's not it's
Speaker 1: it's not it's not. I mean, it's it's pretty I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's closer than we've seen other primaries. I guess,
Speaker 1: so there are a significant amount of Democrats who did
Speaker 1: want what Jasmine Crockett was selling. I guess to your
Speaker 1: point of it makes them better candidates, it makes tall
Speaker 1: Rico a better candidate. He still got to level up
Speaker 1: a bunch, doesn't he. I mean, he's still got to
Speaker 1: get that adopt that fiery side. Because to Brad's point,
Speaker 1: tall Rico spent thirty million dollars, executed it super well,
Speaker 1: did what he needed to do. But he's going to
Speaker 1: go up against either corn or Packs and Cornan just
Speaker 1: spent seventy million dollars attacking to people, tall Rico's gonna
Speaker 1: get attacked, and how's he gonna respond.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great question, and you know, all things,
Speaker 4: you know, considered, I don't think the attacks that tall
Speaker 4: Rico faced his primary in terms of actual paid media advertising,
Speaker 4: were that intense. I mean, you know, the Crockett campaign
Speaker 4: and the pro Crocket super pac ran ads talking about
Speaker 4: you know, the campaign cash he's gotten from a bipartisan
Speaker 4: pack connected to you know, top Trump donor Miraam Needles.
Speaker 4: And that was kind of the biggest paid media attack
Speaker 4: I saw on him.
Speaker 5: No, a Democrat wants to expand gamble exactly.
Speaker 1: You know, So that's pretty But it was social media
Speaker 1: they were I mean they were sure, sure, I do.
Speaker 4: I do think that the social media discourse was a
Speaker 4: good points for him, but the paid the paid media
Speaker 4: what most Texans were actually seeing, you know. As far
Speaker 4: as negative information about taller Ricle, I thought it was
Speaker 4: pretty mild. And so that's that's just to say I
Speaker 4: agree with you that it wasn't like taller Ico was
Speaker 4: tested that strongly on how to deal with paid media
Speaker 4: taxing this in the primary, and he's gonna happen.
Speaker 3: Like particularly full throat at a tax like I think
Speaker 3: between one am last night when it became clear that
Speaker 3: they were going to call it for him to now
Speaker 3: I've seen that that clip going around of you know
Speaker 3: where he said, you know, Republicans are saying you know,
Speaker 3: he was saying, God is non binary. I've seen it
Speaker 3: on my Twitter like a billion times. They're going to
Speaker 3: Republicans are like on a dime.
Speaker 1: Just remember, just remember what happened to Colin already. You
Speaker 1: know they've got to be prepared for this. And that's
Speaker 1: my big question. How does tall rical respond to those
Speaker 1: kinds of things?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, let's talk about the other side of
Speaker 3: the ticket, because before we can Republicans can even really
Speaker 3: get to reigning hell fire on James Tallerico, they.
Speaker 5: Have to rein here.
Speaker 3: Rain go hire on each other, engage a little friendly fire,
Speaker 3: the least friendly fire we've seen in a long time
Speaker 3: in a Republican primary, Renzo. I mean last night John Cornyn,
Speaker 3: did he overperform? Did he perform how we should have expected?
Speaker 3: What did we see on the Republican side?
Speaker 6: Is Cornan still up by one and that he's up
Speaker 6: by like one and a half points.
Speaker 3: Right aw, twenty five thousand votes.
Speaker 6: I don't think many people expected Cornan to be in
Speaker 6: the top position of that runoff, and that's at testament
Speaker 6: to his experience, his the number of campaigns he's run
Speaker 6: in Texas, UH and Paxton. The Paxston campaign didn't feel
Speaker 6: like it lit up until very late in the cycle,
Speaker 6: you know, trying to focus their attention when more people
Speaker 6: are going to be paying attention. But there weren't as
Speaker 6: many Cornan attacks as you were. I mean, everything was
Speaker 6: Paxton Wesley Hunt attacks right as far as you know
Speaker 6: I was seen.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean the Wesley Hunt spoiler of this, right,
Speaker 3: I mean, what is your read on who those who
Speaker 3: gets those votes now in a runoff?
Speaker 6: As far as who gets those votes, I'm not sure
Speaker 6: I could see that going either way. But I think
Speaker 6: that Wesley Hunt did his job in that he prevented
Speaker 6: Cornyan from winning outright last night?
Speaker 1: Was that his job?
Speaker 3: Well, it was a job. Who gave him that job,
Speaker 3: who gave him that job? Who they they gave that's
Speaker 3: what they wanted him to do.
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I mean part of his reason of why
Speaker 6: he jumped in was that Paxton wasn't out there enough.
Speaker 6: That was his initial pitch of why he was jumping in.
Speaker 6: And so so his vote sharees seemed to make the difference.
Speaker 6: So here we are, you know, I.
Speaker 4: Mean, yeah, I mean Hunt was clearly gaining some momentum
Speaker 4: I think earlier this year, and that's why you saw
Speaker 4: this rush of spending against him kind of around maybe
Speaker 4: it was like late January, early February, kind of in
Speaker 4: the weeks right before early voting. So I think Hunt
Speaker 4: was a real threat to make potentially make the runoff,
Speaker 4: and that alarmed both Cornyn and Paxton's camps, and in
Speaker 4: they're outside groups because corn and Paxton want to face
Speaker 4: each other, both want to face each other if there
Speaker 4: was going to be a runoff, They're both more familiar
Speaker 4: with each other. The battle lines are more clear, and
Speaker 4: so you know, I think Hunt, you know, had some
Speaker 4: real potential earlier this year, but he ultimately can not
Speaker 4: overcome you know, I think there was like eight to
Speaker 4: ten million dollars worth of ads against him, you know,
Speaker 4: as it became clear that he was maybe competitive for runoffs, and.
Speaker 1: Paxton's huge popularity among the Republican base, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: he he was leading the whole time, which I think,
Speaker 1: going back to Renzo's point, I think it can't be
Speaker 1: overstated how good of a night it was for corn
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously he didn't win it out right, but
Speaker 1: his plan all along has been to get into a runoff.
Speaker 1: That's what he's been saying all along. He wants Paxton
Speaker 1: in the runoff, they're gonna spend a whole ton more money.
Speaker 1: And they again they executed their plan. We did see
Speaker 1: hunt rising and then you had to like sort of
Speaker 1: punch down and make sure he stayed down. And it
Speaker 1: wasn't a huge threat, but Cornyn's team had executed. And again,
Speaker 1: social media is not real life. You saw people dunking
Speaker 1: on him because he had these like small campaign events
Speaker 1: and it made me think sort of Joe Biden in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty with a small campaign, and what did Joe
Speaker 1: Biden do. He eventually became the President of the United States.
Speaker 1: I mean, these people are running good campaigns and I
Speaker 1: think it was He's Cornyn is still leading that races.
Speaker 1: But that's an overperformance.
Speaker 3: It's an overperformance in the context of this race, right.
Speaker 1: But for people you were saying he was dead in
Speaker 1: the water, of course.
Speaker 3: Right, But for a long time incumbent, like a well
Speaker 3: respected state senator to be you know, barely eking out
Speaker 3: sort of this victory over I would say a candidate
Speaker 3: with a lot of baggage I was I saw this morning.
Speaker 3: You know, team Cornyn has sort of started pushing this
Speaker 3: judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton messaging, and then
Speaker 3: I saw a state representative, Mitch Little just tweeted back,
Speaker 3: why wasn't today judgment Day? Like kind of like, you know,
Speaker 3: you think that like another three months of this is
Speaker 3: gonna suddenly, you know, change everything, and voters are going
Speaker 3: to really change their opinion on Ken Paxton. Brad, I
Speaker 3: don't know if you have thoughts on where this is going.
Speaker 5: It's a big wonder whether which way the Wesley Hunt
Speaker 5: voters go. And I think the question there is which
Speaker 5: is a bigger brand problem in terms of who they're picking.
Speaker 5: Is it Cornyn's moderacy or relative moderacy or is it
Speaker 5: Paxton's personal baggage? And I guess then they have to
Speaker 5: make the decision. Do they want to give Democrats exactly
Speaker 5: what they want, which is a Ken Paxton led ticket?
Speaker 5: Doesn't matter? You know, this is still a red state
Speaker 5: until proven otherwise, and it has been getting redder. And
Speaker 5: the conversation among a lot of these activists is, so
Speaker 5: the hell, what you know, who cares if Kaxson's the
Speaker 5: top of the ticket. Maybe we don't find that ideal,
Speaker 5: Maybe that's going to cause headaches for us, but this
Speaker 5: is still Texas and to this point, the blue wave
Speaker 5: hasn't materialized at all.
Speaker 4: Patrick, yet, I'm just gonna say, well, we're still talking
Speaker 4: about Wesley Hunt. I'm actually more curious where Wesley Hunt's
Speaker 4: financial backers go rather than his more than where I'm
Speaker 4: curious where his voters go.
Speaker 1: And that's because.
Speaker 4: You know, I'm a junkie, But I mean, you look
Speaker 4: at the amount of outside money that was spent on
Speaker 4: Wesley Hunt's behalf in this campaign and in the several
Speaker 4: months leading up to the campaign to build his state
Speaker 4: wide name ID. A lot of it was anonymous money
Speaker 4: that we still don't know the source of, but it
Speaker 4: was significant, and by some measures, more outside money. I
Speaker 4: think I could by objective measures, you could say more
Speaker 4: outside money was spent on behalf of Wesley Hunt in
Speaker 4: this primary than it was on behalf of Ken Paxton.
Speaker 4: So clearly there is some heavyweight donors that have been
Speaker 4: hanging back, shielding their identities behind the scenes supporting Hunt,
Speaker 4: and so I'm curious where they go, because, as we
Speaker 4: just discuss, money matters a lot.
Speaker 1: This mysterious day that we're talking about. But apologies to
Speaker 1: the crowd, because we've been asked about Wesley Hunt and
Speaker 1: all four of us are like, well, who knows, you
Speaker 1: know who? They could go either way.
Speaker 3: Really, somebody could find out.
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Actually it does. I mean, I guess
Speaker 1: we'll see if Wesley Hunt makes an endorsement. I guess.
Speaker 1: But really the important thing is does President Trump make
Speaker 1: an endorsement and does he take into account what Brad
Speaker 1: just said, which is that James tall Rico is now
Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee. This is the scenario that Republicans Senate
Speaker 1: Republicans have been fearing, where James Talerco potentially runs against
Speaker 1: Cam Paxton. Does President Trump say I don't like that matchup.
Speaker 1: Cornyn looks like he can win it, and Cornyn he's
Speaker 1: got Chris la Civitta on his side. Lasibitta sent out
Speaker 1: some tweets yesterday that are not family friendly, and we
Speaker 1: can't say, but they were much stronger than judgment day
Speaker 1: about what they plan to do to can pack in
Speaker 1: this in this runoff. So I think that is the
Speaker 1: big question and sort of what happens.
Speaker 3: There, Renzo, how would a Trump endorsement blow all this up?
Speaker 6: Well, I actually almost wonder the strength of the Trump
Speaker 6: endorsement at this point, based on some other races that
Speaker 6: happened last night.
Speaker 3: But we're gonna we're gonna get to that.
Speaker 6: Within the Senate primary. I think obviously it would put
Speaker 6: things more in Cornin's corner. And I think another point
Speaker 6: about corn In with just how strong of a surprisingly
Speaker 6: strong of a campaign he ran and being able to
Speaker 6: turn out voters across the state. I think the conventional
Speaker 6: wisdom had been that in a runoff, the the excited,
Speaker 6: the animated anti corn voters we're going to be the
Speaker 6: ones who would turn out more, and that corner would
Speaker 6: be doomed in a run off. But if it is
Speaker 6: such a low turnout environment as en typically are, then
Speaker 6: I think last night Cornan proved that he's able to
Speaker 6: turn out his voters.
Speaker 1: So you know that's another point, is calm, I.
Speaker 3: Say, yeah, I think we are obviously going to see
Speaker 3: Republicans spending a god awful amount of money and spending
Speaker 3: a lot of time and energy fighting each other. You're
Speaker 3: James Tallerico, you kind of get to like stretch out
Speaker 3: till the general, pinch your pennies a little bit, spend
Speaker 3: your money on building that general election campaign. I mean,
Speaker 3: how does that advantage him? Brad, you want to take that.
Speaker 5: How does that advantage Cornyn tall Rico. Sorry, yeah, I'm sorry,
Speaker 5: I tuned out for a second. Tall Rico's When I
Speaker 5: look at a tallar Rico candidacy, and I try and
Speaker 5: look at it from the Republican side, I am not
Speaker 5: really caring about the Senate seat. Yeah, I don't want
Speaker 5: to lose that if I'm a Republicans. But I'm more
Speaker 5: worried about down ballot in the Texas House specifically, and
Speaker 5: that is people in our sphere. That is what they've
Speaker 5: been talking about for days and days and weeks. You know,
Speaker 5: they already had the ads cut with Jasmine Crockett's viral moment.
Speaker 5: Whether it was taken out of context or not doesn't
Speaker 5: really matter, because the ads would have been run about
Speaker 5: the slave mentality of Hispanics in South Texas who voted
Speaker 5: for Trump. That's not the case anymore. And Tallarico performed
Speaker 5: very well down there on the ground. Sentiment I heard
Speaker 5: was the valley is very excited about tall Rico, and
Speaker 5: so I think.
Speaker 1: That I think you mean Pallarico.
Speaker 3: Tallarico.
Speaker 5: Sorry, I'm white, is Rice. I can't. I think that
Speaker 5: more than anything is going to have is going to
Speaker 5: be the biggest effect in this race in November. The
Speaker 5: Senate seat is one of one hundred. If Republicans, if
Speaker 5: they're a majority in the House, drops significantly or even
Speaker 5: they lose that in my view, maybe it's because I
Speaker 5: cover this every day that is far more significant than
Speaker 5: one Senate seat.
Speaker 3: I mean, well, first of all, you know, we're gonna
Speaker 3: get Tallerrico in the valley. We're also going to get
Speaker 3: I saw the tweet going around. A very exciting thing,
Speaker 3: which is getting to hear President Trump mispronounced tall Rico probably,
Speaker 3: which gonna be so fun for everyone.
Speaker 5: I like how James pronounced it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, that's how they pronounced it in the ad.
Speaker 1: You guys, this is yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.
Speaker 1: Nobody canceled me.
Speaker 3: Please any better you than an give the rest of
Speaker 3: us something? Please don't especially, I mean, so, I mean,
Speaker 3: this is going to have it. This is sort of
Speaker 3: this marquee race. We did see Democrats turn out in
Speaker 3: huge numbers, sort of comparably, we're seeing these little pieces
Speaker 3: of the puzzle. I mean, we saw a Senate District
Speaker 3: nine flip for a Democrat in Terrent County for the
Speaker 3: first time in decades. Slash potentially ever, and yet a
Speaker 3: Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since nineteen
Speaker 3: ninety four, Patrick, is this the year the Democrats really
Speaker 3: changed that?
Speaker 1: Before you answer that, how many times have you been asked.
Speaker 3: That on this change off this stage exact chair?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I don't know if this is the
Speaker 4: answer to the question, but.
Speaker 3: People don't usually tell me that they're dodging the question.
Speaker 3: They just do it.
Speaker 4: Look, I think the moment is very similar to twenty
Speaker 4: eighteen first mid terms of a you know, of a
Speaker 4: Trump term. So the national environment, you know, favors Democrats.
Speaker 4: And I think tallar Rico is is similar to Better
Speaker 4: or Work in some ways. He's different from Better or
Speaker 4: Work in some ways at least different from the twenty
Speaker 4: eighteen version of Better or Work, who was a little
Speaker 4: resistant to professional political advice in that race. And I
Speaker 4: think some people looking back on that race, which you know, betto,
Speaker 4: would have taken a little more professional political advice and
Speaker 4: he maybe would have beaten Ted Cruz. I think tall Rico,
Speaker 4: just based on watching him in the prime Mary clearly
Speaker 4: is willing to take professional political advice and surround himself
Speaker 4: with you know, knowledgeable and very capable consultant.
Speaker 1: He's got the opposite, maybe a little bit of paraality exactly.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you could, you could argue go too far
Speaker 4: in that direction. So those are some key differences I
Speaker 4: think between Tallerrico now Beto in twenty eighteen. But you know,
Speaker 4: we saw in twenty eighteen this is now drussing more
Speaker 4: of the Republican side of the race. We saw in
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen how a Republican you know, can win a
Speaker 4: Senate race in Texas, but it could be closer than
Speaker 4: his party wants it to be and there could be
Speaker 4: disastrous effects down ballot. You know, Ted Cruz won by
Speaker 4: I think three percentage points in twenty eighteen. But down
Speaker 4: ballot Democrats picked up two US House seats, they picked
Speaker 4: up I think a dozen state legislative seats, and then
Speaker 4: there's like politically, there's a ripple effect, you know, that
Speaker 4: creates new stars within the Democratic Party in Texas. Two
Speaker 4: of the people who picked up seats that cycle were
Speaker 4: Colin all Red and James tallerco and they ran for
Speaker 4: statewide office and continue to build the Democratic bench in Texas.
Speaker 4: And so that's all to say, when you have a
Speaker 4: Republican who underperforms at the top of the ticket. You
Speaker 4: have to consider all these down ballid effects, not just
Speaker 4: in the moment, but how it could launch the careers
Speaker 4: of people who can continue to try to try to
Speaker 4: change the face of power.
Speaker 5: In Texas, something that I think we need to take
Speaker 5: into account. Patrick's absolutely right about the general environment looking
Speaker 5: very similar to eighteen. Something we don't know how it's
Speaker 5: going to play out. Is there's no more straight ticket voting.
Speaker 5: Is that a good thing for Democrats or a bad
Speaker 5: thing for Democrats when we get to November. I don't know,
Speaker 5: but it is a big difference, and probably it doesn't
Speaker 5: play much at the top of the ticket. But what
Speaker 5: I just said about down ballot in the state House,
Speaker 5: you know, that could very well affect things massively and
Speaker 5: be a different factor compared to what we saw in
Speaker 5: twenty oh.
Speaker 1: But that's probably good for James Taller Rico, right, because
Speaker 1: when you said the thing about straight ticket voting, I said, oh,
Speaker 1: probably bad. But then tall Rico's counting on crossover voters.
Speaker 3: Well, it could be good for tall Rico, but not
Speaker 3: shift the rest of the environment.
Speaker 5: Here's a broader blue Yeah, I see the other thing
Speaker 5: I'll say about the original question of what does this
Speaker 5: do for tall Rico.
Speaker 1: There's this truism in politics, right if your opponent is
Speaker 1: what you guys said, hell fire is raining down on them,
Speaker 1: you just get the heck out of the way. Just
Speaker 1: get out of the way. Let those two guys shoot
Speaker 1: at each other. And I think tall Rico is going
Speaker 1: to be very good actually at campaigning with down ballot people,
Speaker 1: better or rot. There was a criticism that he wasn't
Speaker 1: great at that. I think James tallerco he's a creature
Speaker 1: of the house. Oh sure, he's out there with Bobby Police.
Speaker 5: He certainly understands the importance of it. But it's a
Speaker 5: different thing entirely mechanism wise to going getting motivated by
Speaker 5: tall Rico, casting your ballot there and then making it
Speaker 5: all the way down the ballot versus just hitting one
Speaker 5: button and going all the way down ballot for Democrats.
Speaker 1: This is the reality we live in now, which is
Speaker 1: no more straight ticket voting. There was this criticism, I
Speaker 1: think from the Crockett campaign, which was that he didn't
Speaker 1: care about down ballot races, which I thought was completely unfair.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's a guy from that su I think
Speaker 1: he's going to be very good at that, probably has
Speaker 1: learned that lesson from Beto O'Rourke. I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be interesting to see sort of how they coordinate.
Speaker 1: But listen, they're Texas Democrats. Always an opportunity for them
Speaker 1: to fumble.
Speaker 3: Thank you for that. Let's talk about money, which we've
Speaker 3: sort of been alluding to. Obviously huge money at the
Speaker 3: top of the ticket, but in two races slightly lower
Speaker 3: down the ballot on the Republican side, we saw the
Speaker 3: impact of just huge spending. In the attorney general's race,
Speaker 3: which you mentioned, May's Middleton self funding close to twelve
Speaker 3: million dollars of his own money to his campaign, really
Speaker 3: putting him on top of Chip Roy they're going to
Speaker 3: a runoff. And then in the comptroller race, Don Haffeins,
Speaker 3: who loaned his campaign ten million dollars, just wanted outright
Speaker 3: jumping over Christi Kratick and the sort of pseudo interim
Speaker 3: or pseudo incumbent interim comptroller Kelly Hancock. Renzo. Is it
Speaker 3: just all about money? Is that the only thing that
Speaker 3: matters anymore?
Speaker 1: Middleton's first name is Maga, right.
Speaker 3: That's that's correct.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, because based on all the ads that.
Speaker 3: You're Maga Maze Middleton yet.
Speaker 1: Just you wait, yeah, so I'm sorry, what was the question?
Speaker 3: Is money? The only thing that to get the Maga
Speaker 3: May's joke out is money? The only thing that matters?
Speaker 3: Can you buy an election?
Speaker 6: Well, when you've got a race where I mean nobody
Speaker 6: really knows any of the candidates, I mean, Chip Roy
Speaker 6: would be the known name in that, but uh, as
Speaker 6: we've been talking about at the top of the ticket,
Speaker 6: just getting that with the money, with the ads, getting
Speaker 6: your name out there is still you know, the most
Speaker 6: effective way, it seems. I mean, I think we were
Speaker 6: all in that social media bubble where it seemed like
Speaker 6: Aaron Wright's was a movement, but Twitter is still not
Speaker 6: real life. Yeah, this many years later.
Speaker 3: I mean, Packson's chosen successor and Aaron Wrights yes calling
Speaker 3: forth of four and.
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, And I was going to say, I mean,
Speaker 4: I think this all proves that running state wide in
Speaker 4: Texas is a very humbling experience. And even if you
Speaker 4: enter a primary with high name ID, a national profile,
Speaker 4: you know, strong endorsements, if you don't have the money
Speaker 4: to spread that message statewide, then you're at a serious
Speaker 4: disadvantage and I think you would apply this to the
Speaker 4: You could extend this kind of to the power of
Speaker 4: the Trump endorsement as well. You know, Trump endorsed so
Speaker 4: many people in this primary in Texas, and even if
Speaker 4: he didn't endorse someone, they had him in their ads,
Speaker 4: you know, and he was just ubiquitous whether he endorse
Speaker 4: someone or not. And as a candidate, you know, you
Speaker 4: have to have the resources and the political know how
Speaker 4: to be able to deploy you know, your ads in
Speaker 4: a way that cuts through all that noise and makes
Speaker 4: clear that you can own your Trump endorsement. And that's
Speaker 4: really hard, especially if Trump endorses you late in the game.
Speaker 4: You know, Sid Miller, the agriculture commissioner who lost reelection,
Speaker 4: you know, finally got his long sought Trump reelection endorsement
Speaker 4: on Friday, but it was after early voting had ended.
Speaker 4: We were going into the weekend. You couldn't really submit
Speaker 4: any more TV ads to the stations to air. And
Speaker 4: so that's a moment where, yeah, you got the Trump endorsement,
Speaker 4: but do you have the money or the strategy or
Speaker 4: the professional know how to get it out? And I
Speaker 4: don't think Sid Miller in that case had all of that.
Speaker 4: Maybe he was, you know, maybe he was going to
Speaker 4: lose no matter what. But there's a contrast with Don Haffines,
Speaker 4: the comptroller candidate who romped to victory, but he also
Speaker 4: got a very late Trump endorsement the same Friday night
Speaker 4: that Sid Miller did. And I talked to his campaign
Speaker 4: and they said, you know, they had the ads already
Speaker 4: created just in anticipation of a potential endorsement, so that
Speaker 4: within twenty to thirty minutes after Trump put that post
Speaker 4: on true Social, they were calling state you know, they
Speaker 4: were calling station managers and saying like, hey, can you
Speaker 4: get the TV ad up saying we're endorsed by Trump.
Speaker 4: And so again that all goes back to just my
Speaker 4: broader point that if you don't have the money to
Speaker 4: get out that message statewide or the political know how,
Speaker 4: then you know, some of these things that we consider
Speaker 4: big advantages a Trump endorsement high name ID to begin with,
Speaker 4: aren't really that big of advantages.
Speaker 3: I've talked about this potentially even on this podcast before,
Speaker 3: but like at my nail salon, it's just all the
Speaker 3: TVs just show like a YouTube channel that's just like
Speaker 3: AI generated videos of animals playing with each other interrupted
Speaker 3: by Don Haffins ads. That is just like I mean,
Speaker 3: that's just like the they're just buying ads, space and
Speaker 3: time everywhere that if you went to that nail salon,
Speaker 3: you know, once a month for six months, you would
Speaker 3: be like, Don Haffines is the only person running from
Speaker 3: office in the state of Text Well.
Speaker 1: Can I can I jump in here? Because it's two things.
Speaker 1: It's not just the money, because there have been people
Speaker 1: who have a lot of money. Tony Sanchez, right and
Speaker 1: Russ what did he have like forty million something ungodly right,
Speaker 1: seventy million, seventy million dollars in two thousand and two
Speaker 1: for Tony Sanchez from the Dream Team and just was
Speaker 1: a complete dud. I mean we refer to that as
Speaker 1: the biggest laws I think in in a ticket for
Speaker 1: the Democrats. So you can have a lot of money
Speaker 1: and do a bad job. Don Huffines had a lot
Speaker 1: of money, did a good job. But who runs his
Speaker 1: campaign or who's his big political consultant, Alan Blakemore, he
Speaker 1: knows how to run campaigns in Texas. He knows how
Speaker 1: to run Republican campaigns in Texas. You gotta have to
Speaker 1: know how. And the other thing is that it's incredibly
Speaker 1: humbling to run a state wide race in Texas to
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett. And this is why I was on the
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett train for so long in terms of thinking
Speaker 1: that she would win. We've been watching this woman win
Speaker 1: races that she had no business winning for the last
Speaker 1: six years. I mean, she's talked about it. She said
Speaker 1: the establishment was against me when I ran for the
Speaker 1: state House. The establishment was against me. Of course she
Speaker 1: got the EBJ endorsement, but most of the establishment was
Speaker 1: against her when she ran for Congress. So I said,
Speaker 1: this is a person who has something here. But running
Speaker 1: in a congressional race, as Colin already found out, is
Speaker 1: very different from running a wide race. You've got to
Speaker 1: be able to level it up all that much more.
Speaker 1: And that's why I'm watching Talla Rico and sort of
Speaker 1: what he does to level up in this next phase
Speaker 1: of the election.
Speaker 5: One of the big winners of this election cycle was
Speaker 5: Terry Lowry and his link letter. If you look at
Speaker 5: the the money spent by these candidates made Middleton, John
Speaker 5: Cornyn was actually on it. Don Huffines bou French was
Speaker 5: on it. It's it's a mail piece that is sent
Speaker 5: out to every every Republican voter across the states, and
Speaker 5: it's pay to play. But the pay to play works,
Speaker 5: it turns out and every one of those candidates outperforms
Speaker 5: what we thought they were going to do if not.
Speaker 5: In hulf Fine's case, went out right. You know, of
Speaker 5: all the polling bo French we saw he was down
Speaker 5: at like eight percent. He was on all these slate
Speaker 5: cards link letter being the biggest one but not the
Speaker 5: only one for Railroad Commission, for Railroad Commission, thank you,
Speaker 5: and uh it's it works, it really does. And you
Speaker 5: look down ballot further at some of these House candidates.
Speaker 5: Dennis Geeseman just upset Stan Kitzman. You know, he was
Speaker 5: on a lot of these slate cards. It's it's kind
Speaker 5: of a dirty tactic, but politics is dirty and it works.
Speaker 5: And in watching the results come in, I couldn't help
Speaker 5: but think man Terry Lowry is going to make a
Speaker 5: killing next cycle.
Speaker 3: I mean, right, it's a huge state. It's hugely expensive
Speaker 3: to get your you know, TV ads up if you
Speaker 3: can sort of get in with those sort of key
Speaker 3: key players, which often also cost money. I mean, let's
Speaker 3: talk about the Trump endorsement and the Abbot endorsement, which
Speaker 3: frankly a muddled night for both of them. We saw
Speaker 3: Governor Greg Abbott endorse Kelly Hancock for comptroller who lost,
Speaker 3: but Nate Sheets for AGG commissioner who won. Meanwhile, across
Speaker 3: the exactly across the you know line, we saw Trump
Speaker 3: endorse Don Huffins for comptroller who won and Sid Miller
Speaker 3: for AGG commissioner who lost. Does any of us mean anything, Renzo, Well, no,
Speaker 3: you can say.
Speaker 1: No, Yeah, I know.
Speaker 6: I just assumed that a voter who doesn't know any
Speaker 6: of the candidates, doesn't anything about the race, but has
Speaker 6: decided they're going to go vote, is going to google,
Speaker 6: you know, the candidates and who's endorsed them, and uh
Speaker 6: see that Donald Trump is back to this person and
Speaker 6: be like, oh, no, there it is. But uh, you know,
Speaker 6: in this mid term, President Trump was not on the ballot.
Speaker 6: And you know, I think that in some of those
Speaker 6: races like uh CD nine down in you know, Southeast
Speaker 6: Texas with Briscoe Caine and Alex Mueler. Uh, those are
Speaker 6: races where uh, you know, that's not the top of
Speaker 6: mind for voters.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 6: And you know, at that point, I think it probably
Speaker 6: becomes a bit more of a coin flip of where
Speaker 6: they're actually going to go. And was I think when
Speaker 6: we saw the strength of the Abbot endorsement was in
Speaker 6: the Texas House, the state House primary cycle twenty fourteen,
Speaker 6: when you know he was touring the state with those candidates,
Speaker 6: going to their districts and boosting the vote for them
Speaker 6: in the area. But with a bunch of these congressional races,
Speaker 6: Like was like, how often did have it show up
Speaker 6: with Brisco Caine?
Speaker 3: I don't know, not often, yeah, right, And certainly like
Speaker 3: on the Trump endorsement, I mean, it's like a true
Speaker 3: social post that you then get to put on your ads.
Speaker 3: It's not like boots on the ground.
Speaker 6: And I also think there's been some people in conservative
Speaker 6: circles discounting the the validity of a Trump endorsement, like
Speaker 6: does does President Trump actually know these people or has
Speaker 6: somebody told him to endorse?
Speaker 1: Uh? And there's that mysterious day.
Speaker 5: I think it's it's less complicated. It's that somebody mentioned
Speaker 5: all the ads, maybe was Patrick, that all the ads
Speaker 5: had Trump on it, and everyone's calling themselves a mega conservative.
Speaker 5: How do you know the difference between who has a
Speaker 5: specific endorsement and who just loves Donald Trump?
Speaker 3: Right, Maga maze, you would be led to believe was
Speaker 3: endorsed by Trump.
Speaker 5: Right and exactly. You know, I think the endorsement still
Speaker 5: has a lot of value, But when it's getting drowned
Speaker 5: out by every single ad you can possibly see that
Speaker 5: has Donald Trump's face on it, people don't. People don't
Speaker 5: go look up who is endorsed by who they see
Speaker 5: the TV ads. And if one candidate is touting a
Speaker 5: Trump endorsement or blazoning Trump's face on everything and the
Speaker 5: other one's not, they're going to be more likely to
Speaker 5: go that way. But if they're all doing it, then
Speaker 5: it's kind.
Speaker 1: Of a wash.
Speaker 4: And I'll just add two things on that. Trump really
Speaker 4: didn't do much for his endorsed candidates this cycle in
Speaker 4: Texas beyond issuing the truth social you know post. The
Speaker 4: most he did beyond that was he appeared in Corpus
Speaker 4: Christi on the Friday afternoon, on the last day of
Speaker 4: early voting, at an ostensibly official event, and brought a
Speaker 4: couple of the candidates on stage to say a few words.
Speaker 4: We've seen in other places in the country and even
Speaker 4: in Texas, what Trump can do when he really cares
Speaker 4: about a race. I mean he'll come and do multiple candidate,
Speaker 4: multiple rallies with that candidate on stage. He will go
Speaker 4: on the attack against their opponents. His political operation will
Speaker 4: activate and reach out to who they've identified as the
Speaker 4: you know, Trump loyalist voters in Texas. You know Trump
Speaker 4: even you know, does these telephone rallies the night before elections.
Speaker 4: I didn't see any of that. There's any evidence of
Speaker 4: that this time around. So Trump's endorsement was ubiquitous in
Speaker 4: his primary, but he didn't really you know, put his
Speaker 4: shoulder into it from any of these candidates.
Speaker 3: Will we see that in the general though, Like, does
Speaker 3: that shift as we go into a general election? Potentially?
Speaker 1: I think so? Yeah, I think Trump Trump.
Speaker 4: He spoke to a local TV reporter after his rally
Speaker 4: event in Corpus and said that he plans to be
Speaker 4: involved in general election in Texas.
Speaker 1: But Trump says a lot of things. I mean, how
Speaker 1: involved is he going to be? I mean, he's got
Speaker 1: now we're dealing with the situation in Iran. We don't
Speaker 1: forget Venezuela. He's got dealing with things in Congress. He's
Speaker 1: got a lot of things going on. The economy is not.
Speaker 3: I think that'll all be wrapped up by be wrapped.
Speaker 1: Up by no. But here's here's my point. Here's my point,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to earn my pro bone no paycheck
Speaker 1: from the Texas Tribune for this event. If I'm going
Speaker 1: into the runoff, Patrick, I would rather have Abbot's endorsement
Speaker 1: than President Trump's, because Abbot is pounding the pavement. He's
Speaker 1: out there holding events with his with his endorsed candidates,
Speaker 1: and he knows where to go find the votes in Texas.
Speaker 1: I mean, before the AP called the ad commissioner race,
Speaker 1: the governor called it first. The governor congratulated in a
Speaker 1: sheets and they said, basically, we're done. We know this
Speaker 1: state better than the AP essentially, which they probably do
Speaker 1: because they know where to go find those votes. He's
Speaker 1: going to go pound the pavement. And also, let's not
Speaker 1: just I also, I think the Abbot endorsements are going
Speaker 1: to count a lot. But I've got to point out
Speaker 1: because I told her I would. Kate McGee, our former
Speaker 1: colleague here at the Texas Tribune, did a fantastic job
Speaker 1: covering Nate Sheets, and Nate Sheets had a great and
Speaker 1: Sid Miller and Nate Sheets had a great ground game.
Speaker 1: Things that Kate. I'm reading Kate's tweets right now. Miller
Speaker 1: was up for reelection a couple of times before, and
Speaker 1: the Texas Farm Bureau did not endorse him. This time.
Speaker 1: They did not endorse him again, but came out for
Speaker 1: Nate Sheets. A lot of Sid Miller's enemies came out
Speaker 1: of the woodworks. He ran a good campaign, but I
Speaker 1: still say, if you're going into this runoff, you'd rather
Speaker 1: have Abbott on your team here in Texas than Trump,
Speaker 1: because Trump will forget your name if you lose an St.
Speaker 1: Nine race. Yeah.
Speaker 4: At that same Corpus Christi event, he mispronounced multiple congressional
Speaker 4: candidates that he had endorsed.
Speaker 1: He mispronounced their names, which speaks to.
Speaker 3: Your point, I mean, and to your point, right, you
Speaker 3: can get the Abbot endorsement and then just stick Trump's
Speaker 3: face on all your mailers and you know, sort of
Speaker 3: get the same message out.
Speaker 5: I think the reason Abbot was so effective last year
Speaker 5: was not really the power endorsement, although it does carry
Speaker 5: some weight because he is in a Republican primary, fairly
Speaker 5: well liked, but it was he spent all this money,
Speaker 5: specifically for these House candidates. You know, Mark the Hood
Speaker 5: had Abbot face to camera talking about how he's better
Speaker 5: on the border than Steve Allison in that race. That's
Speaker 5: why it was so effective. We didn't see that this time.
Speaker 5: You know, Abbot did do some ads for Kelly Hancock
Speaker 5: and was taking him around the state. You know, he
Speaker 5: could argue whether huff Finds was just running away with
Speaker 5: it or not. But it wasn't.
Speaker 1: Hard to be right of hulf Finds on immigration.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it wasn't the same kind of brawling that Abbot
Speaker 5: did in twenty four because Abbot was on the ballot
Speaker 5: himself and he's trying to his well. A big part
Speaker 5: of his strategy was running ads across the state, particularly
Speaker 5: in the non metros, to boost turnout, because when you
Speaker 5: get someone who turns out in the primary, they are
Speaker 5: far more likely to be a general election voter. So
Speaker 5: he had more things on his plate than just I'm
Speaker 5: going to get this school choice bill and to hell
Speaker 5: with all your Republicans who voted against it.
Speaker 3: This was a different cycle, which is interesting. I mean,
Speaker 3: I think that there we've seen a lot of politicians
Speaker 3: who have success flexing their muscles on one thing and
Speaker 3: then say like, I'll just keep doing that and see
Speaker 3: what I can sort of get done, and maybe over
Speaker 3: time sort of that power diminishes. So I think we're
Speaker 3: certainly seeing Abbott. I mean he has threatened to, or
Speaker 3: you promise, to use his massive war chest to turn
Speaker 3: Harris County red, to turn the Valley red. I mean,
Speaker 3: I think we're going to see a lot of involvement,
Speaker 3: but it certainly maybe a little bit more judicious than
Speaker 3: President Trump coming in and you endorsing.
Speaker 5: He's going to spend a lot of money to turn
Speaker 5: both those places red.
Speaker 3: I think, good thing, he has a lot of money
Speaker 3: on his side. I mean the other piece of this
Speaker 3: is a weird night for incumbents. I mean we talked
Speaker 3: about Sid Miller, who has been the Agriculture Commissioner since
Speaker 3: twenty fifteen, has withstood a lot of scandals, a lot
Speaker 3: lot of baggage, a lot of just weird headlines about
Speaker 3: him over the years. Was polling was showing him really
Speaker 3: leading going into the election, and then you know, lost
Speaker 3: pretty thoroughly to eight sheets Renzo. I mean, anything we
Speaker 3: can read in the tea leaves from that.
Speaker 6: I think that as you said, Sid Miller has had
Speaker 6: this comment. Yeah, but I think Sid Miller in particular
Speaker 6: also did not get along with Greg Abbott in particular,
Speaker 6: and just the Austin environment, and so.
Speaker 3: It's a good euphemism.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, but just say the swamp Prenzorenzo.
Speaker 6: Yeah, No, I just think that in that particular race,
Speaker 6: just all the money, all the support was there for
Speaker 6: or make sheets. Yeah, I feel like it's as simple
Speaker 6: as that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, to borrow some language that we used in a
Speaker 4: takeaways piece for The Tribune this morning, I mean the
Speaker 4: Trump and I think what last night show is the
Speaker 4: Trump endorsement remains powerful, but it does not absolve candidates
Speaker 4: of all the unique issues, the issues that may be
Speaker 4: unique to them, you know. I mean you still need to,
Speaker 4: you know, not have a massive personal scandal that you're
Speaker 4: dealing with. If you're Tony Gonzalez, for example, you still
Speaker 4: need you still need to have the campaign resources and
Speaker 4: know how as we discussed, to deploy that endorsement in
Speaker 4: an effective way in the case of similar perhaps and so,
Speaker 4: you know, the Trump endorsement just doesn't solve all your problems.
Speaker 4: You can't get that Trump endorsement and just rest on
Speaker 4: your laurels. You also have to be, you know, running
Speaker 4: a good campaign and not dealing with other baggage that
Speaker 4: could counteract that.
Speaker 5: I think she's just ran a fantastic campaign, kept the
Speaker 5: pressure on the whole time. Miller expected a Trump endorsement
Speaker 5: to come in, and it did at the last minute,
Speaker 5: but probably too little, too late at that point.
Speaker 1: And that's the other thing. That endorsement came so late
Speaker 1: Friday night early voting could closed. There.
Speaker 5: I'm here and there's a pretty three hours later. Yeah,
Speaker 5: but yeah, I mean it's it just did. It didn't
Speaker 5: break through, and Miller didn't have the money to make
Speaker 5: it break through. And if that had come, you know,
Speaker 5: the Friday before early voting, like all the other Trump
Speaker 5: endorsements did, then you might have something there. But he
Speaker 5: banked on rural Texas coming out and saving him like
Speaker 5: it had done before, not just saving him, but pushing
Speaker 5: him way up. Sheets ran away with the suburbs. I
Speaker 5: think looking at the map, it's pretty clear, and I
Speaker 5: think a lot of that's the slate cards. I keep
Speaker 5: harping on it. But it was a tremendously effective move
Speaker 5: for him, and he also had the money to be
Speaker 5: on TV. Miller didn't pretty basic.
Speaker 3: I think yeah, the other I mean you mentioned Tony
Speaker 3: Gonzalez and incumbent who is now facing a run off
Speaker 3: with Brandon Herrera. Just replay of twenty twenty four where
Speaker 3: he beat Herrera by four hundred votes. The difference obviously
Speaker 3: being that Tony Gonzalez now has a very significant personal
Speaker 3: scandal hangovers head allegations that he had an affair with
Speaker 3: a staffer who later died by suicide. Patrick, I mean,
Speaker 3: how messy? How much messier is that race going to get?
Speaker 3: In this runoff?
Speaker 4: Well, I want to see, first of all, if Gonzalez
Speaker 4: is actually going to stick around for the runoff. There
Speaker 4: is a period after the primary where candidates who qualify
Speaker 4: for a runoff can choose to have their name remove
Speaker 4: from the ballot, effectively handing the nomination to the other
Speaker 4: runoff opponent. That happened in I believe it was twenty
Speaker 4: twenty two when Van Taylor also was rocked by allegations
Speaker 4: of an affair in the days before his primary.
Speaker 1: He got forced into a runoff.
Speaker 4: He admitted to the affair, apologized to his constituents and
Speaker 4: said I'm withdrawing from the runoff and I'm not seeking reelection.
Speaker 1: We'll see you know, if Gonzales does that.
Speaker 4: Last night, he had a tweet that said onward to May,
Speaker 4: so it's clearly trying to signal that he's not going anywhere.
Speaker 4: Of course, I'm sure he's you know, there could be
Speaker 4: a renewed push by House Republican leadership the White House
Speaker 4: today to get him to drop out of that runoff.
Speaker 4: So I don't necessarily look at his tweet last night
Speaker 4: and think that means he's actually one hundred percent going
Speaker 4: to be in this runoff. So that's the first question
Speaker 4: I want to get answered, is Gonzales actually stick around
Speaker 4: for the runoff. If he does, he's he's definitely the underdog.
Speaker 4: And I mean this is if you look at the numbers,
Speaker 4: you know, he you know, his support plummeted from early
Speaker 4: voting to election day results, which suggests to me that
Speaker 4: the toll of that scandal, which kind of broke out
Speaker 4: the beginning of the early voting period, really began to
Speaker 4: sink in as we got closer to primary day, and
Speaker 4: he ended up as as of before we came to
Speaker 4: this taping, you know, he was actually the you know,
Speaker 4: in the second place spot behind Brandon her Era. So
Speaker 4: you know, he's got a really tough race ahead if
Speaker 4: he sticks it out.
Speaker 1: Can I just jump in to say, as you were
Speaker 1: speaking about whether Tony Gonzale should step step aside here,
Speaker 1: I got an email from Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics
Speaker 1: and Washington crew saying the headline Tony Gonzalez should resign.
Speaker 1: So there's gonna be a lot more growing pressure. But
Speaker 1: then what happens, because then you get Brandon Herrera and
Speaker 1: then what does that matchup look like against a Democrat? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's true.
Speaker 4: What I've something that I've heard from you know, Republicans
Speaker 4: in Washington is you know this this this time around,
Speaker 4: in terms of the battle from the majority, they're they're
Speaker 4: more focused on the numbers rather than getting the right
Speaker 4: kind of Republican. And so I think that actually benefits
Speaker 4: Herrera here, that Republicans are just so desperate.
Speaker 1: I'm saying for the voters of CD twenty three, sure
Speaker 1: have an appetite for.
Speaker 4: Yeah, But from the perspective in DC, maybe because of
Speaker 4: the environment this time around, you know, leadership is less
Speaker 4: concerned about getting a Herrara in that seat as long
Speaker 4: as it's a Republican.
Speaker 3: Briefly, Brad, we saw another incumbent just eliminate entirely in
Speaker 3: Representative Crenshaw losing to Steve Toath. What happened there.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of national punditry talking about you know
Speaker 5: Crenshaw there. I know that he is finally getting knocked off.
Speaker 5: I think this is just a very hyper local situation.
Speaker 5: He pissed off a lot of people in the district
Speaker 5: and couldn't overcome it. Part of that was his voting record.
Speaker 5: But you know, the the when during redistricting there was
Speaker 5: an adjustment made I think because Toath got caught on
Speaker 5: camera saying some bad things about Trump, and they in
Speaker 5: one of the revisions that ended up the final one,
Speaker 5: they adjusted CD two a little bit and it was
Speaker 5: supposed to advantage Crenshaw and it didn't. I think his
Speaker 5: candidacy had just run its course. And you know, Toath
Speaker 5: ran a good campaign, but he's also a state rep
Speaker 5: there and he had a base of support. And also,
Speaker 5: this is Montgomery County, or largely Montgomery County we're talking about,
Speaker 5: which is you know Moco Loco, right, It's it's a
Speaker 5: crazy place. It's one of the most conservative counties in
Speaker 5: the state. And they do things like this and they
Speaker 5: booted his butt out.
Speaker 3: You can't run too far to the right in Montgomery County. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I like ye, James briefly, and then I think we're
Speaker 3: going to go to audience questions. But you know, redistricting,
Speaker 3: we saw shake up a bunch of other things. We
Speaker 3: saw Julie Johnson, you know, into a runoff with Colin
Speaker 3: all Red. We saw Al Green and Christian Menafie head
Speaker 3: to head. We look ahead to the general where we're
Speaker 3: gonna be able to finally get the answer to was
Speaker 3: this mid decade redistricting a boon for Republicans or a
Speaker 3: dummy mander? Is the Democrats like to forecast? How does
Speaker 3: what is it?
Speaker 1: How?
Speaker 3: What was the impact of these new maps and all
Speaker 3: that drama on the primary?
Speaker 1: I mean the impact on the primary, of course, is
Speaker 1: the Democrat on Democrat battles. You're mentioning Christian Menafe versus
Speaker 1: Al Green, which is going to be a very interesting race,
Speaker 1: but an incumbent there now, I guess two incumbents technically
Speaker 1: fighting it over, Julie Johnson now having to fight with
Speaker 1: Colin all Red. That's really kind of Colin Allredd's whole deal.
Speaker 1: He jumped into that race late when Julie Johnson ha
Speaker 1: said she was in it. But there's another incumbent in
Speaker 1: trouble because I think Colin Allred was leading that one.
Speaker 1: And then here in Austin, Lloyd Doggett and Kasar having
Speaker 1: to sort of duke it out, Lloyd dogget having to
Speaker 1: sort of get pushed pushed out. But the Republicans, I'll say,
Speaker 1: whatever happens in November, right, Brad, whatever happens in November,
Speaker 1: the Republicans have finally succeeded in pushing out Lloyd Doggett
Speaker 1: through redistricting.
Speaker 3: So it was all for the Republicans, you know. That
Speaker 3: was the long That was the one that we we
Speaker 3: got to get dogged, the Long Con. Yeah. Yeah, Well,
Speaker 3: I think we've got questions from the audience, if.
Speaker 1: You if you'll permit me here, if I can just
Speaker 1: jump in right here. You know, I used to co
Speaker 1: host this podcast with on Our Clibenof, she's a good
Speaker 1: friend of mine. A couple of weeks ago we were
Speaker 1: sitting around and she said, you know what I would
Speaker 1: really like for my birthday is to sit around with
Speaker 1: four guys and just dissect the primaries and dissect the primaries.
Speaker 1: So we've already fulfilled wish one. Then she then she
Speaker 1: told me, I wish there was a crowd there. I
Speaker 1: wish there was a crowd there, and that they just
Speaker 1: gave me a round of applause for it being my birthday.
Speaker 1: You guys think we can make that happen. That's thank you,
Speaker 1: Happy birthday.
Speaker 3: I appreciate that. Honestly, thanks to the election, I've gotten
Speaker 3: to be awake for almost all twenty four hours of
Speaker 3: my birthday, and that's exciting.
Speaker 2: So I also think I was standing next to Eleanor
Speaker 2: and James today when we acknowledged.
Speaker 3: We would not talk about the birthday, but here we are. Yes.
Speaker 2: So a few questions from the audience, and I know
Speaker 2: it was something that you had hoped to cover, but
Speaker 2: questions about what now in terms of Dallas and Williamson Counties,
Speaker 2: what happened, both the what it means in terms of
Speaker 2: process and so forth, but also a number of voters
Speaker 2: who felt disenfranchised and what that means for campaigns needing
Speaker 2: to remedy those relationships. But also just in terms of
Speaker 2: investigating what happened.
Speaker 3: James, can you give like the thirty second overview of
Speaker 3: what happened with Dallas and Williamson County.
Speaker 1: Yes. Basically, the Republican parties decided that they didn't want
Speaker 1: to do county wide voting, which those counties had moved
Speaker 1: to something like ten or fifteen years ago, which reverted
Speaker 1: them back to doing precinct voting. Under Texas law, if
Speaker 1: one party decides to go back to precinc voting, then
Speaker 1: the other party has to do so as well. I
Speaker 1: will say this one caveat, and that led to confusion
Speaker 1: from voters who didn't realize that county wide voting had
Speaker 1: been eliminated for the primary, so they were showing up
Speaker 1: at the wrong precincts. That led to a lot of confusion,
Speaker 1: a lot of voters being turned away, and obviously these
Speaker 1: lawsuits ensued to extend polling hours. The Supreme Court of
Speaker 1: Texas got involved. I will say this caveat this question
Speaker 1: of disenfranchisement, I think is a bridge too far. Obviously
Speaker 1: it was a huge inconvenience for voters. But these counties
Speaker 1: knew it, the parties knew it, the campaigns knew it,
Speaker 1: we all knew what the rules were. I think it's
Speaker 1: a bridge too far to say that it was disenfranchisement
Speaker 1: and I will.
Speaker 3: Say, I mean, like I think the Democratic Party was saying,
Speaker 3: like they've been warning the GOP about this potential impact
Speaker 3: since they made this change, but.
Speaker 1: That I was in the election spent a million dollars
Speaker 1: to educate people about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and also, you know you have an obligation to
Speaker 3: you can rail against the GOP, you also have to
Speaker 3: educate your voters and make sure they're getting there, which
Speaker 3: I think some of the campaigns made it stronger effort
Speaker 3: on than others. But I mean chaos at the polls
Speaker 3: in Dallas and Williason County. I think essentially it sounds
Speaker 3: like Dallas County is saying, you know, if you were
Speaker 3: in line at seven pm, your vote counts, and that's
Speaker 3: where they're kind of leaving it. But we'll see what
Speaker 3: unfolds from there.
Speaker 2: Sophia from Austin asks turnout in the Senate primary was historic,
Speaker 2: but down ballot was still barely above one million, and
Speaker 2: many other statewide contentious selections. Much of the country will
Speaker 2: look at the headlines and think that voters are really motivated,
Speaker 2: but they're hardly breaking double digits among registered voters.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts, Brad.
Speaker 3: Do you want to take that. I mean, you're I
Speaker 3: met sort of the down ballot, are we what's going
Speaker 3: to be the impact?
Speaker 5: And clearly there was enthusiasm at the top of the ticket,
Speaker 5: no question about it, both with contentious primary fight on
Speaker 5: the Republican side and also for the first time in
Speaker 5: a while, a Democratic one as well. So clearly a
Speaker 5: lot of enthusiasm. But that enthusiasm drops off down ballot.
Speaker 5: You know, I think people might be a bit harsh
Speaker 5: to say voters are lazy, but you know, like it, see.
Speaker 3: Voters are busy with a lot on them, with a
Speaker 3: lot on their mind.
Speaker 5: Okay, But if you're already at the poll and you're
Speaker 5: casting a ballot for tall Rico and you don't go
Speaker 5: down ballot.
Speaker 3: Right, well yeah right, I would assume they're thinking, I
Speaker 3: don't know, I don't think they're like, it's so many.
Speaker 5: Times they didn't get down to the buck they did,
Speaker 5: and I think that's just kind of baked into our
Speaker 5: society right now, Like it takes a lot. Think of
Speaker 5: how much money these campaigns are spending just to get
Speaker 5: people to go. I was in I was in Lubbock
Speaker 5: last week and I'm sitting at a bar and I
Speaker 5: hear these two old dudes talking next to me, exactly
Speaker 5: the kind of demographic John Cornyn wants to turn out
Speaker 5: and help him get above Paxton. And they acknowledged that
Speaker 5: there was an election, uh this week. One of them
Speaker 5: asks are you gonna go vote? And he goes, hell,
Speaker 5: I don't know, then goes oh, I might not either.
Speaker 5: I mean, campaigns are spending a fortune to try and
Speaker 5: get people exactly like that to the polls, and they're not.
Speaker 5: They don't even know the Wednesday before the election if
Speaker 5: they're even going to turn out. I'm glad I'm not
Speaker 5: a I'm glad I'm not a consultant running a campaign,
Speaker 5: although they're probably making pretty good killing on it.
Speaker 3: But it's better than some I mean, the most one
Speaker 3: of the most search terms that takes people to the
Speaker 3: Texas Tribune website every single election day is when is
Speaker 3: election Day? And like people, it's like a real voter
Speaker 3: education problem and civic education problem.
Speaker 5: I go back to my government class in high school
Speaker 5: where I was the only one awake the entire time,
Speaker 5: and look at.
Speaker 3: You, now, I know right, yeah, Patrick was.
Speaker 4: Just say, if you're if you're a Democrat concerned about
Speaker 4: turnout in Texas then you should be asking James tall Rico,
Speaker 4: what are you doing in the general election to build
Speaker 4: a coordinated campaign that integrates with down ballot candidates and
Speaker 4: make sure that you guys all rise together and that
Speaker 4: you know that there's not as much of a drop
Speaker 4: off and turnout down ballot because that is in battleground
Speaker 4: states and truly competitive states. You know, that is the
Speaker 4: traditional role of the candidate at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Just one one more question. Ashley from Austin asks,
Speaker 2: based on assertions in the memo from Cornn's camp this
Speaker 2: morning and conversations I've had with other staff, Paxton being
Speaker 2: on the ticket will drag other ours down throughout the
Speaker 2: rest of the state has had a strong enough in
Speaker 2: argument to get to the to get the Trump endorsement.
Speaker 2: Will state GFP leaders quietly asked Trump to help Cornyan.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the big question, right, Is Paxton
Speaker 3: actually a drag on the ticket? I don't know, Patrick,
Speaker 3: Do you have thoughts well, I.
Speaker 4: Mean we saw polling during the general election. I'm sorry
Speaker 4: during the primary about this question, and honestly, you know,
Speaker 4: especially toward the end, I didn't find it particularly decisive
Speaker 4: either way. I mean sure, there were polls that showed that,
Speaker 4: you know, John Cornyn would beat James Tallerico by a
Speaker 4: wider margin than Ken Paxon, but to me, not by
Speaker 4: that much of a wider margin. And so, you know,
Speaker 4: I think one of the more realistic and convincing arguments
Speaker 4: is the one that I advanced earlier, which is like,
Speaker 4: you know, sure, maybe Ken Paxon can win this race
Speaker 4: if he's a nominee, but he would underperform potentially in
Speaker 4: a way where there is damage down ballot, and that
Speaker 4: damage down ballot, as I point out earlier earlier, could
Speaker 4: be very significant to the future of the parties in Texas.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: I think our politics reporters who I know are also
Speaker 2: finding important news during this event for joining us this morning.
Speaker 2: With that, I turned it over to Allan Ars close
Speaker 2: us out.
Speaker 3: Fantastic, Well, thank you guys so much for joining us,
Speaker 3: Thank you all for attending. The events like this are
Speaker 3: made possible by the Texas Tribune members, so we encourage
Speaker 3: you to go to our website become a member, support
Speaker 3: our work, and thank you all for your wonderful insights today.
Speaker 3: Thanks for coming, Thank you