WEBVTT 1 00:00:21.879 --> 00:00:23.920 All right, good morning everyone. 2 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:27.039 I am Matt you while I serve the Texas Tribune 3 00:00:27.039 --> 00:00:31.280 as senior director of Events and Live Journalism. Welcome to 4 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:34.280 those joining us in person here at the Tribune studio 5 00:00:34.439 --> 00:00:36.880 in Austin and those joining us around the state for 6 00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:40.640 our live presentation of trip cast breaking down the results 7 00:00:40.799 --> 00:00:43.320 of the twenty twenty sixth Texas Primary with some of 8 00:00:43.359 --> 00:00:46.799 the state's best politics reporters. And we have a lot 9 00:00:46.960 --> 00:00:50.840 to talk about today in conversation with tripcast co host 10 00:00:50.840 --> 00:00:54.719 Eleen or klibanoff panel will discuss results from the Senate 11 00:00:54.799 --> 00:00:58.159 race battles for the Texas Legislature, what races are going 12 00:00:58.200 --> 00:01:03.079 to runoffs, and more. Our program will run approximately an hour, 13 00:01:03.960 --> 00:01:05.879 and we'll have time for a brief Q and A 14 00:01:06.120 --> 00:01:08.920 so to get to as many questions as possible. You 15 00:01:08.959 --> 00:01:11.760 can submect questions through our Q and A portal at 16 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:16.439 Texastribune dot Texas Tribune dot org slash ask that's Texis 17 00:01:16.560 --> 00:01:19.359 Tribune dot org slash ask and for those here in 18 00:01:19.400 --> 00:01:21.760 our studio, there's even some QR codes in the back 19 00:01:22.040 --> 00:01:24.319 which you can use to. 20 00:01:24.280 --> 00:01:26.599 Get to our Q and A page. 21 00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:30.280 We are grateful for the support of our sponsors Our 22 00:01:30.319 --> 00:01:34.239 presenting sponsor today is Builders, and our major sponsors for 23 00:01:34.319 --> 00:01:38.439 today's program are Texas Matters and Raizer hand Texas. Also 24 00:01:38.519 --> 00:01:42.400 just want to note that these organizations are sponsors of 25 00:01:42.480 --> 00:01:46.719 our larger twenty twenty six Texas Voter Guide, which you 26 00:01:46.760 --> 00:01:50.000 can use as a resource through the runoffs and leading 27 00:01:50.079 --> 00:01:54.560 up to the general election. So today's conversation is but 28 00:01:54.640 --> 00:01:56.879 one aspect of the way the Tribune is covering this 29 00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:00.319 election year. So keep that link Texastribune dot org slash 30 00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:04.200 vote handy for the runoff races, general election this November, 31 00:02:04.480 --> 00:02:08.680 and stay tuned for future Texas Tribune events at texastribune 32 00:02:08.680 --> 00:02:14.280 dot org slash events Amplify. Austin is happening now. If 33 00:02:14.319 --> 00:02:17.080 you make a one hundred dollars donation to the Texas Tribune, 34 00:02:17.759 --> 00:02:21.080 this is your only chance to win two platinum tickets 35 00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:23.199 to the that's our highest level of ticket to the 36 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:27.400 Texas Tribune Festival that's happening September twenty four through twenty six. 37 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:32.280 You can visit Texastribune dot org slash amplify for more information. 38 00:02:32.400 --> 00:02:36.879 That's Texastribune dot org slash amplify. And we're going to 39 00:02:36.919 --> 00:02:40.599 have Eleanor introduced today's Tribecast guests. So let's go ahead 40 00:02:40.639 --> 00:02:41.919 and begin today's program. 41 00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:47.479 Eleanor, thank you, hello, and welcome to this very special 42 00:02:47.479 --> 00:02:51.919 episode of the Tribecast Live the Morning After. Addition, I'm 43 00:02:51.960 --> 00:02:55.560 Eleanor Klebanov, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune. 44 00:02:56.240 --> 00:02:58.680 Not joined by Matthew Watkins this week, as he is, 45 00:02:59.319 --> 00:03:02.520 I assume just sleeping off an exciting night of primary results. 46 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:06.319 We are very excited to just dive into what last 47 00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:09.240 night meant, you know, what we're looking at for the 48 00:03:09.319 --> 00:03:11.680 runoff where things go from here. So I'll go ahead 49 00:03:11.680 --> 00:03:15.039 and introduce our panelists. We are joined by Renzo Downey, 50 00:03:15.400 --> 00:03:20.039 lead author of the Texas Tribune subscriber politics newsletter The Blast. Rerenzo, 51 00:03:20.080 --> 00:03:23.639 thanks for being here, Good to see you. James Barragon, 52 00:03:24.520 --> 00:03:28.719 anchor at Spectrums Texas Capital Tonight and once and former 53 00:03:28.800 --> 00:03:31.000 co host of the Texas Trip Cast. Welcome back. 54 00:03:31.120 --> 00:03:32.800 Hi, Ellan, It's good to be back, Thanks. 55 00:03:32.639 --> 00:03:35.840 For having thanks for being here. Patrick's v Tech Texas 56 00:03:35.840 --> 00:03:39.840 Tribune alum, current free agent who stepped in to help 57 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:43.240 us with election night. Thank god, Patrick, Thanks for coming 58 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:43.759 in from DC. 59 00:03:44.039 --> 00:03:45.240 Yeah, I'm very happy to be here. 60 00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:47.759 And bringing US bagels this morning, which was much appreciated. 61 00:03:47.800 --> 00:03:48.960 I did not get a bagel. 62 00:03:49.039 --> 00:03:51.280 Yeah, Like I said, I know, Texas isn't known for bagels, 63 00:03:51.319 --> 00:03:53.680 So that's the one cultural export I can make. 64 00:03:53.520 --> 00:03:58.039 It absolutely and last but not lease. Brad Johnson, co 65 00:03:58.120 --> 00:04:01.159 founder and reporter at Texas Bullpen, thanks for coming two 66 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:01.759 floors up. 67 00:04:01.879 --> 00:04:03.439 Glad to be here. No idea what we're about to 68 00:04:03.479 --> 00:04:03.919 talk about. 69 00:04:04.039 --> 00:04:07.960 Yeah, nothing to talk about. Very exciting night. Last night 70 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:10.960 in some ways sort of played out the way we expected, 71 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:15.080 some big surprises. Let's start with the big name race 72 00:04:15.280 --> 00:04:18.319 that we do have a clear resolution for, which is 73 00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:22.240 the Democratic primary for Senate. After weeks of i mean 74 00:04:22.680 --> 00:04:25.639 competing polls by the day, sometimes by the hour, that 75 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:29.879 promised a very contentious down to the wire race. What 76 00:04:29.920 --> 00:04:32.360 we ended up seeing was James Tallerico came through with 77 00:04:32.399 --> 00:04:36.240 a fairly decisive victory. As of now about he's got 78 00:04:36.279 --> 00:04:38.720 about fifty three percent of the vote to Jasmine Crockett's 79 00:04:38.759 --> 00:04:41.879 forty six percent. I mean, Renzo, start us off. What 80 00:04:42.040 --> 00:04:43.680 happened here? What are we seeing? 81 00:04:44.600 --> 00:04:44.800 Yeah? 82 00:04:44.800 --> 00:04:48.639 Well, I think what we saw last night is that 83 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:56.720 having a robust campaign, having the money support behind you 84 00:04:57.560 --> 00:05:04.160 still matters. In Texas, and you know, the Republicans were 85 00:05:04.480 --> 00:05:07.319 potentially trying to boost Jasmine Crockett for that seat because 86 00:05:07.319 --> 00:05:12.519 she would have been a easier general election candidate to beat. 87 00:05:13.399 --> 00:05:15.920 So I think we're going to see a lot of 88 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:21.560 national interest, a lot of national money come into this race. 89 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:24.480 And you know there's going to be some time for 90 00:05:24.800 --> 00:05:28.959 tell Rica to try to shore up, try to shore 91 00:05:29.040 --> 00:05:31.759 up the Democratic vote because you know, he wrapped that 92 00:05:31.879 --> 00:05:35.879 up a little bit, you know, two months before Cornin 93 00:05:35.959 --> 00:05:37.160 or packs that have wrapped theirs up. 94 00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:39.720 So that's gonna be interesting. 95 00:05:39.879 --> 00:05:42.519 Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, James, when you look at sort 96 00:05:42.519 --> 00:05:45.639 of the map and where tall A Rico performed, I mean, 97 00:05:46.199 --> 00:05:48.240 what are you taking away from that? I mean we, frankly, 98 00:05:48.240 --> 00:05:50.839 we just saw a huge Democratic turnout in general. How 99 00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:52.040 did that sort of help him? 100 00:05:52.399 --> 00:05:55.079 Yeah? I think the Democratic turnout is a testament to 101 00:05:55.160 --> 00:05:58.199 both of these really exciting young candidates, these rising stars, 102 00:05:58.879 --> 00:06:01.839 and Jasmine Crockett and James Taller Rico, they both said 103 00:06:01.920 --> 00:06:04.959 they wanted to expand the electorate, go after young voters 104 00:06:05.680 --> 00:06:08.560 who have not voted, and every Democrat has to say 105 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:11.560 that this is their playbook. We've heard every Democratic candidate 106 00:06:11.560 --> 00:06:14.759 to talk about this, but they happened to deliver. And 107 00:06:15.040 --> 00:06:21.079 tall Rico yesterday in his speech afterwards, said basically, we 108 00:06:21.160 --> 00:06:24.560 got those young voters. We also got independents and Republicans 109 00:06:24.600 --> 00:06:27.680 who had not voted for Democrats before. And so his 110 00:06:27.800 --> 00:06:31.040 strategy worked. His campaign worked because that's what he said 111 00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:33.839 he wanted to do from the beginning beginning right expand 112 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:36.680 that electorate, reach out to independence and voters that he 113 00:06:36.759 --> 00:06:40.720 thought were persuadable, and he seemed to deliver. And also 114 00:06:40.800 --> 00:06:44.800 just to the regions that we're talking about, we're looking 115 00:06:44.839 --> 00:06:47.600 at the early voting. Last night, we were seeing Jasmine 116 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:51.120 Crockett perform well in places like Harris County and Dallas County. 117 00:06:51.160 --> 00:06:52.879 And we can talk more about Dallas County if we want, 118 00:06:52.879 --> 00:06:54.839 because I know that was a whole debacle. But she 119 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:59.680 was hitting high fifties, not really in the sixties, maybe 120 00:06:59.720 --> 00:07:02.360 low sixties in the places that she needed to be 121 00:07:02.439 --> 00:07:06.600 really really overperforming. Tall Rico up and down Central Texas 122 00:07:06.600 --> 00:07:08.639 in the early votes sometimes was at seventy five to 123 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:10.879 twenty five. I mean, he was a wrecking ball. And 124 00:07:10.920 --> 00:07:13.639 that's what you need. You need people who are gonna 125 00:07:13.680 --> 00:07:16.720 sort of understand the assignment and then execute it. And 126 00:07:16.759 --> 00:07:19.120 he did execute it. And you know, I think it's 127 00:07:19.120 --> 00:07:21.920 a real testament to Talla Rico because, as you said, 128 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:25.480 Jasmine Crockett had the higher name ID. She's all over 129 00:07:25.560 --> 00:07:28.720 cable news, She's been on CNN, MSNBC, whatever you want. 130 00:07:28.879 --> 00:07:32.240 She had the higher name recognition in the early polls. 131 00:07:32.279 --> 00:07:35.560 I think throughout most of this I thought that Crockett 132 00:07:35.560 --> 00:07:39.279 probably had the edge. And I have to give kudos 133 00:07:39.279 --> 00:07:42.360 to Rebecca Allen, politics editor over there waving at me. 134 00:07:42.879 --> 00:07:45.079 She's gonna sort of lurd this over me for months, 135 00:07:45.120 --> 00:07:48.720 but Rebecca thought that taller Rico was going to win. 136 00:07:48.920 --> 00:07:52.319 I was on the Crockett bus for until maybe like 137 00:07:52.959 --> 00:07:56.160 five days ago, until Friday or Thursday, until like last week, 138 00:07:56.480 --> 00:08:00.079 because I didn't see her executing the plan in the 139 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:02.680 way that Tallarico was executing. I mean, he had a 140 00:08:02.680 --> 00:08:05.600 ground game. He has a solid ground game. It seemed 141 00:08:05.600 --> 00:08:08.079 like he had a better way of dealing with the 142 00:08:08.199 --> 00:08:11.680 Dallas County situation. I mean, I talked to the Crockett 143 00:08:11.680 --> 00:08:14.279 campaign yesterday about what they were doing about voters being 144 00:08:14.319 --> 00:08:16.480 turned away, and they're like, we're jumping on radio and 145 00:08:16.519 --> 00:08:19.160 social media, which is fine, But I was talking to 146 00:08:19.199 --> 00:08:21.439 other campaigns in Dallas who were saying, like, we've got 147 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:24.720 people there to direct them to the correct precinct, so 148 00:08:26.160 --> 00:08:28.439 we can beat this course to death as much as 149 00:08:28.519 --> 00:08:31.399 we want. But social media is not real life. You 150 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:34.080 still got to have the ground game, and tall Rico 151 00:08:34.120 --> 00:08:34.799 had the ground game. 152 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:37.480 I mean, Patrick, I'm curious you're read on this because 153 00:08:37.519 --> 00:08:40.039 I think there isn't. I think when Jasmine Crockett entered 154 00:08:40.039 --> 00:08:42.639 the race, there was sort of this, maybe some frustrations 155 00:08:42.639 --> 00:08:44.440 like what we're gonna spend I mean, Colin Allred was 156 00:08:44.440 --> 00:08:45.759 already in the race, but we're gonna spend a lot 157 00:08:45.799 --> 00:08:48.120 of time and money on a primary when we should 158 00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:50.919 be focusing on November. The counter argument is, you know, 159 00:08:51.080 --> 00:08:54.600 primaries test candidates, they show the strength of a campaign. 160 00:08:54.720 --> 00:08:57.320 They'd let you see where those weaknesses are. It seems 161 00:08:57.320 --> 00:08:59.840 like in some ways this is a you know, example 162 00:09:00.279 --> 00:09:02.480 of that that you can start to see where the 163 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:05.120 cracks are in a campaign before November. What's sort of 164 00:09:05.159 --> 00:09:06.759 your read on the Crockett campaign. 165 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:08.960 Yeah, a few things on that. I mean, that's certainly the. 166 00:09:10.559 --> 00:09:13.960 Optimistic take from Democrats who watched this contentious primary play out. 167 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:14.960 I mean, they. 168 00:09:14.799 --> 00:09:16.720 Cringed a little bit, but they also said, you know, 169 00:09:16.799 --> 00:09:19.919 this is you know, a great moment for us, almost 170 00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:23.080 unprecedented in recent history to have a statewide primary with 171 00:09:23.200 --> 00:09:26.639 two well known, well funded candidates duking it out, you know, 172 00:09:26.879 --> 00:09:30.360 having a good faith debate of ideas and political strategies. 173 00:09:30.399 --> 00:09:32.799 And I do think that there's some legitimacy to that 174 00:09:33.480 --> 00:09:36.200 and the idea that you know, they were each of 175 00:09:36.240 --> 00:09:39.000 them were made better candidates through this process. I think 176 00:09:39.000 --> 00:09:41.919 that this process did reveal that, you know, as we've 177 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:43.879 all I think agreed so far, that Crockett did not 178 00:09:44.039 --> 00:09:46.600 have as organized of a campaign as some of her 179 00:09:46.639 --> 00:09:49.240 supporters would have hoped for, which would have had potentially 180 00:09:49.240 --> 00:09:52.919 devastating impacts in the general election if she were the nominee, 181 00:09:52.960 --> 00:09:55.039 and I'm sure Democrats would like to know about those 182 00:09:55.080 --> 00:09:58.039 shortcomings now in her political operation versus if she becomes 183 00:09:58.039 --> 00:10:00.360 a nominee and has to go up against the Publicans 184 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:02.679 are going to just always be better organized and better 185 00:10:02.679 --> 00:10:05.519 funded in Texas in most cases. Number two, You know, 186 00:10:05.559 --> 00:10:09.480 I would say that particularly the outreach that James Tallerco 187 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:13.480 did to Hispanic voters benefited him. I think in both 188 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:15.279 a way that helped in the primary, but also a 189 00:10:15.279 --> 00:10:17.799 general election. I mean, I think Hispanic voters were crucial 190 00:10:17.840 --> 00:10:20.320 for him in winning the primary getting the actual nomination, 191 00:10:20.639 --> 00:10:22.440 but it also doubled as a good test run for 192 00:10:22.480 --> 00:10:24.960 a general election where that voting block is going to 193 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:28.080 be up for grabs. I mean, we have seen Hispanic voters, 194 00:10:28.440 --> 00:10:31.960 you know, particularly in South Texas geographically speaking, you know, 195 00:10:32.039 --> 00:10:34.960 become an increasingly competitive voting block between the two parties. 196 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:38.120 And so you know, tall Rico was smart to focus 197 00:10:38.159 --> 00:10:40.360 on that in the primary because it also will help 198 00:10:40.399 --> 00:10:42.759 him and make him a better candidate in the general potentially. 199 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:43.840 Yeah. 200 00:10:43.879 --> 00:10:47.120 I mean, Brad, we saw this morning Jasmine Crockett conceded 201 00:10:47.279 --> 00:10:52.679 struck a pretty unify or unity tone. I mean, what 202 00:10:52.759 --> 00:10:56.080 do you see. I think let's talk about you know, 203 00:10:56.120 --> 00:10:58.600 we're going to come back to Tallarico's odds in the 204 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:00.440 general once we sort of talk about who who is 205 00:11:00.600 --> 00:11:03.159 going to be on the Republican side, But in terms 206 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:06.440 of where the party stands unifying behind this candidate as 207 00:11:06.480 --> 00:11:08.799 sort of their marquee, big name, what do you see 208 00:11:08.799 --> 00:11:09.080 in there? 209 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:12.799 I think Democrats decided not to give Republicans exactly what 210 00:11:12.840 --> 00:11:15.639 they wanted, which was a Jasmine Crockett top of the 211 00:11:15.639 --> 00:11:22.320 ticket candidacy. Obviously it's a counterfactual. We'll never know how 212 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:26.279 a Jasmin Crockett would have performed in November, but there 213 00:11:26.360 --> 00:11:30.200 is a reason the NRSC spent so much money trying 214 00:11:30.240 --> 00:11:32.960 to get her in the race. And I think she 215 00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:35.480 was always going to at least she was always close 216 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:38.720 to getting in the race without that, but they felt 217 00:11:39.279 --> 00:11:41.840 a need and a desire to do that, and there's 218 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:45.200 a reason for that action. Speak louder than rhetoric on this, 219 00:11:46.840 --> 00:11:48.679 I think. Another big takeaway for me, and I said 220 00:11:48.679 --> 00:11:52.320 this last night on the health site known as Twitter 221 00:11:53.639 --> 00:11:54.399 big money. 222 00:11:54.480 --> 00:11:55.639 Known as xRy. 223 00:11:55.639 --> 00:12:00.000 Please thanks for the correction. I appreciate that big money 224 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:04.240 plays very bigly in this state, especially in a state 225 00:12:04.320 --> 00:12:07.519 in state wide races. You know, similar to James, I 226 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:10.600 thought Crockett was going to get the nod. Maybe it 227 00:12:10.600 --> 00:12:13.759 would have been very tight, you know. Uh, Tellerico certainly 228 00:12:13.799 --> 00:12:18.200 had momentum, but with all the polling being a wreck, 229 00:12:18.240 --> 00:12:21.039 which is another thing we should discuss, pulling was a mess. 230 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:26.879 I leaned on, Well, the celebrity is probably gonna win. 231 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:31.159 The other race I pointed to in making that argument 232 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:35.320 was age. It didn't turn out that way, either it 233 00:12:35.399 --> 00:12:38.240 went the other way, and it turns out the person 234 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:41.200 with that spent more money in both of those races 235 00:12:41.240 --> 00:12:43.559 came out on top, and came out on top by 236 00:12:43.600 --> 00:12:46.600 a decent margin. You know, nobody thought Mace Middleton was 237 00:12:46.639 --> 00:12:52.440 going to exceed Chip Roy and even get close. It 238 00:12:52.519 --> 00:12:57.399 was gonna be, you know, tough to do. So money's 239 00:12:57.440 --> 00:12:59.840 not everything, and it's not the whole picture of running 240 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:02.759 a good campaign. But if you just look at the 241 00:13:02.759 --> 00:13:07.039 the ad impact spread on television ad spending, tall Rico 242 00:13:07.120 --> 00:13:10.360 outspent Crockett a lot to have a little can I 243 00:13:10.720 --> 00:13:11.080 can I. 244 00:13:11.039 --> 00:13:12.879 Just jump in here because I think it's I think 245 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:15.840 it's interesting, and I do think to Patrick's point that 246 00:13:16.960 --> 00:13:20.559 this primary was good for both Crockett and tall Rico. 247 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:23.080 I think there's a lot of lessons learned. But I 248 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:26.080 think Talla Rico. The reason why I was on the 249 00:13:26.080 --> 00:13:28.720 Crockett train so much is that in this day and age, 250 00:13:28.759 --> 00:13:31.720 sort of when there's a President Trump and the White House, 251 00:13:31.879 --> 00:13:35.480 politics are so combative, there no holds barred. Crockett presented 252 00:13:35.559 --> 00:13:39.399 somebody who said, I can rival that on the Democratic side, 253 00:13:39.399 --> 00:13:43.879 which seemed like something that Democratic candidates wanted, and I 254 00:13:43.919 --> 00:13:46.320 think they still do. I mean, it's what's the what's 255 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:48.279 the score of fifty three, forty seven or whatever. I mean, 256 00:13:48.279 --> 00:13:49.759 it's still a tight race. I mean it's not it's 257 00:13:49.799 --> 00:13:53.000 it's not it's not. I mean, it's it's pretty I mean, 258 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:56.200 it's it's closer than we've seen other primaries. I guess, 259 00:13:57.360 --> 00:13:59.879 so there are a significant amount of Democrats who did 260 00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:03.440 want what Jasmine Crockett was selling. I guess to your 261 00:14:03.480 --> 00:14:05.919 point of it makes them better candidates, it makes tall 262 00:14:06.000 --> 00:14:08.559 Rico a better candidate. He still got to level up 263 00:14:08.559 --> 00:14:10.519 a bunch, doesn't he. I mean, he's still got to 264 00:14:10.559 --> 00:14:14.799 get that adopt that fiery side. Because to Brad's point, 265 00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:18.440 tall Rico spent thirty million dollars, executed it super well, 266 00:14:18.679 --> 00:14:21.240 did what he needed to do. But he's going to 267 00:14:21.320 --> 00:14:24.639 go up against either corn or Packs and Cornan just 268 00:14:24.639 --> 00:14:28.480 spent seventy million dollars attacking to people, tall Rico's gonna 269 00:14:28.480 --> 00:14:30.919 get attacked, and how's he gonna respond. 270 00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:33.840 Yeah, that's a great question, and you know, all things, 271 00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:36.519 you know, considered, I don't think the attacks that tall 272 00:14:36.600 --> 00:14:40.279 Rico faced his primary in terms of actual paid media advertising, 273 00:14:40.480 --> 00:14:43.720 were that intense. I mean, you know, the Crockett campaign 274 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:47.000 and the pro Crocket super pac ran ads talking about 275 00:14:47.320 --> 00:14:50.600 you know, the campaign cash he's gotten from a bipartisan 276 00:14:50.639 --> 00:14:53.480 pack connected to you know, top Trump donor Miraam Needles. 277 00:14:53.559 --> 00:14:56.200 And that was kind of the biggest paid media attack 278 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:56.960 I saw on him. 279 00:14:57.679 --> 00:15:00.600 No, a Democrat wants to expand gamble exactly. 280 00:15:01.720 --> 00:15:04.039 You know, So that's pretty But it was social media 281 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:06.000 they were I mean they were sure, sure, I do. 282 00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:09.080 I do think that the social media discourse was a 283 00:15:09.080 --> 00:15:12.480 good points for him, but the paid the paid media 284 00:15:12.840 --> 00:15:15.399 what most Texans were actually seeing, you know. As far 285 00:15:15.440 --> 00:15:17.360 as negative information about taller Ricle, I thought it was 286 00:15:17.399 --> 00:15:19.480 pretty mild. And so that's that's just to say I 287 00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:22.159 agree with you that it wasn't like taller Ico was 288 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:26.080 tested that strongly on how to deal with paid media 289 00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:28.879 taxing this in the primary, and he's gonna happen. 290 00:15:28.639 --> 00:15:31.039 Like particularly full throat at a tax like I think 291 00:15:31.480 --> 00:15:34.679 between one am last night when it became clear that 292 00:15:34.679 --> 00:15:36.279 they were going to call it for him to now 293 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:38.720 I've seen that that clip going around of you know 294 00:15:38.759 --> 00:15:42.320 where he said, you know, Republicans are saying you know, 295 00:15:42.360 --> 00:15:45.639 he was saying, God is non binary. I've seen it 296 00:15:45.679 --> 00:15:47.759 on my Twitter like a billion times. They're going to 297 00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:49.960 Republicans are like on a dime. 298 00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:53.759 Just remember, just remember what happened to Colin already. You 299 00:15:53.799 --> 00:15:55.759 know they've got to be prepared for this. And that's 300 00:15:55.799 --> 00:15:57.879 my big question. How does tall rical respond to those 301 00:15:57.919 --> 00:15:58.440 kinds of things? 302 00:15:58.519 --> 00:15:59.960 Yeah, I mean, let's talk about the other side of 303 00:15:59.960 --> 00:16:02.480 the ticket, because before we can Republicans can even really 304 00:16:02.519 --> 00:16:06.039 get to reigning hell fire on James Tallerico, they. 305 00:16:05.879 --> 00:16:08.080 Have to rein here. 306 00:16:07.879 --> 00:16:10.279 Rain go hire on each other, engage a little friendly fire, 307 00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:13.240 the least friendly fire we've seen in a long time 308 00:16:13.480 --> 00:16:17.639 in a Republican primary, Renzo. I mean last night John Cornyn, 309 00:16:18.480 --> 00:16:21.360 did he overperform? Did he perform how we should have expected? 310 00:16:21.799 --> 00:16:23.759 What did we see on the Republican side? 311 00:16:23.960 --> 00:16:27.320 Is Cornan still up by one and that he's up 312 00:16:27.320 --> 00:16:28.440 by like one and a half points. 313 00:16:28.240 --> 00:16:29.639 Right aw, twenty five thousand votes. 314 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:33.960 I don't think many people expected Cornan to be in 315 00:16:34.039 --> 00:16:39.039 the top position of that runoff, and that's at testament 316 00:16:39.080 --> 00:16:45.120 to his experience, his the number of campaigns he's run 317 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:52.840 in Texas, UH and Paxton. The Paxston campaign didn't feel 318 00:16:52.879 --> 00:16:56.200 like it lit up until very late in the cycle, 319 00:16:56.399 --> 00:17:00.240 you know, trying to focus their attention when more people 320 00:17:00.279 --> 00:17:05.480 are going to be paying attention. But there weren't as 321 00:17:05.519 --> 00:17:09.720 many Cornan attacks as you were. I mean, everything was 322 00:17:10.200 --> 00:17:13.880 Paxton Wesley Hunt attacks right as far as you know 323 00:17:14.039 --> 00:17:14.519 I was seen. 324 00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:18.160 But yeah, I mean the Wesley Hunt spoiler of this, right, 325 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:22.359 I mean, what is your read on who those who 326 00:17:22.359 --> 00:17:23.880 gets those votes now in a runoff? 327 00:17:25.119 --> 00:17:28.279 As far as who gets those votes, I'm not sure 328 00:17:28.279 --> 00:17:30.279 I could see that going either way. But I think 329 00:17:30.319 --> 00:17:35.279 that Wesley Hunt did his job in that he prevented 330 00:17:35.359 --> 00:17:37.720 Cornyan from winning outright last night? 331 00:17:38.559 --> 00:17:39.279 Was that his job? 332 00:17:39.680 --> 00:17:42.880 Well, it was a job. Who gave him that job, 333 00:17:43.319 --> 00:17:47.119 who gave him that job? Who they they gave that's 334 00:17:47.160 --> 00:17:48.160 what they wanted him to do. 335 00:17:48.400 --> 00:17:51.000 Yeah, yeah, I mean part of his reason of why 336 00:17:51.079 --> 00:17:55.599 he jumped in was that Paxton wasn't out there enough. 337 00:17:55.799 --> 00:17:58.680 That was his initial pitch of why he was jumping in. 338 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:03.640 And so so his vote sharees seemed to make the difference. 339 00:18:04.079 --> 00:18:05.920 So here we are, you know, I. 340 00:18:05.960 --> 00:18:09.279 Mean, yeah, I mean Hunt was clearly gaining some momentum 341 00:18:09.319 --> 00:18:11.839 I think earlier this year, and that's why you saw 342 00:18:11.880 --> 00:18:15.160 this rush of spending against him kind of around maybe 343 00:18:15.200 --> 00:18:18.359 it was like late January, early February, kind of in 344 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:20.440 the weeks right before early voting. So I think Hunt 345 00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:23.319 was a real threat to make potentially make the runoff, 346 00:18:23.640 --> 00:18:27.200 and that alarmed both Cornyn and Paxton's camps, and in 347 00:18:27.200 --> 00:18:29.880 they're outside groups because corn and Paxton want to face 348 00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:31.359 each other, both want to face each other if there 349 00:18:31.400 --> 00:18:33.640 was going to be a runoff, They're both more familiar 350 00:18:33.640 --> 00:18:36.640 with each other. The battle lines are more clear, and 351 00:18:36.759 --> 00:18:38.559 so you know, I think Hunt, you know, had some 352 00:18:38.599 --> 00:18:42.440 real potential earlier this year, but he ultimately can not 353 00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:45.480 overcome you know, I think there was like eight to 354 00:18:45.559 --> 00:18:49.440 ten million dollars worth of ads against him, you know, 355 00:18:49.480 --> 00:18:51.640 as it became clear that he was maybe competitive for runoffs, and. 356 00:18:51.720 --> 00:18:55.240 Paxton's huge popularity among the Republican base, right, I mean, 357 00:18:55.319 --> 00:18:57.640 he he was leading the whole time, which I think, 358 00:18:57.839 --> 00:19:00.200 going back to Renzo's point, I think it can't be 359 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:02.519 overstated how good of a night it was for corn 360 00:19:02.599 --> 00:19:04.799 I mean, obviously he didn't win it out right, but 361 00:19:05.160 --> 00:19:07.960 his plan all along has been to get into a runoff. 362 00:19:07.960 --> 00:19:10.279 That's what he's been saying all along. He wants Paxton 363 00:19:10.400 --> 00:19:13.720 in the runoff, they're gonna spend a whole ton more money. 364 00:19:14.920 --> 00:19:18.119 And they again they executed their plan. We did see 365 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:20.599 hunt rising and then you had to like sort of 366 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:22.839 punch down and make sure he stayed down. And it 367 00:19:22.960 --> 00:19:27.200 wasn't a huge threat, but Cornyn's team had executed. And again, 368 00:19:27.400 --> 00:19:30.319 social media is not real life. You saw people dunking 369 00:19:30.359 --> 00:19:32.720 on him because he had these like small campaign events 370 00:19:32.720 --> 00:19:35.319 and it made me think sort of Joe Biden in 371 00:19:35.319 --> 00:19:38.000 twenty twenty with a small campaign, and what did Joe 372 00:19:38.039 --> 00:19:40.000 Biden do. He eventually became the President of the United States. 373 00:19:40.039 --> 00:19:43.279 I mean, these people are running good campaigns and I 374 00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:46.880 think it was He's Cornyn is still leading that races. 375 00:19:46.960 --> 00:19:48.799 But that's an overperformance. 376 00:19:49.000 --> 00:19:52.200 It's an overperformance in the context of this race, right. 377 00:19:52.160 --> 00:19:53.880 But for people you were saying he was dead in 378 00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:54.960 the water, of course. 379 00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:57.039 Right, But for a long time incumbent, like a well 380 00:19:57.079 --> 00:20:00.720 respected state senator to be you know, barely eking out 381 00:20:00.920 --> 00:20:04.240 sort of this victory over I would say a candidate 382 00:20:04.240 --> 00:20:07.519 with a lot of baggage I was I saw this morning. 383 00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:09.519 You know, team Cornyn has sort of started pushing this 384 00:20:09.960 --> 00:20:12.880 judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton messaging, and then 385 00:20:12.920 --> 00:20:16.200 I saw a state representative, Mitch Little just tweeted back, 386 00:20:16.480 --> 00:20:19.759 why wasn't today judgment Day? Like kind of like, you know, 387 00:20:20.640 --> 00:20:22.799 you think that like another three months of this is 388 00:20:22.839 --> 00:20:25.720 gonna suddenly, you know, change everything, and voters are going 389 00:20:25.799 --> 00:20:28.119 to really change their opinion on Ken Paxton. Brad, I 390 00:20:28.160 --> 00:20:30.440 don't know if you have thoughts on where this is going. 391 00:20:31.480 --> 00:20:34.079 It's a big wonder whether which way the Wesley Hunt 392 00:20:34.160 --> 00:20:37.160 voters go. And I think the question there is which 393 00:20:37.240 --> 00:20:41.400 is a bigger brand problem in terms of who they're picking. 394 00:20:41.759 --> 00:20:47.160 Is it Cornyn's moderacy or relative moderacy or is it 395 00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:51.400 Paxton's personal baggage? And I guess then they have to 396 00:20:51.400 --> 00:20:53.799 make the decision. Do they want to give Democrats exactly 397 00:20:53.839 --> 00:20:56.680 what they want, which is a Ken Paxton led ticket? 398 00:20:57.200 --> 00:20:59.960 Doesn't matter? You know, this is still a red state 399 00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:03.240 until proven otherwise, and it has been getting redder. And 400 00:21:03.279 --> 00:21:07.200 the conversation among a lot of these activists is, so 401 00:21:07.279 --> 00:21:10.759