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Speaker 1: All right, good morning everyone.

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Speaker 2: I am Matt you while I serve the Texas Tribune

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as senior director of Events and Live Journalism. Welcome to

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those joining us in person here at the Tribune studio

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in Austin and those joining us around the state for

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our live presentation of trip cast breaking down the results

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of the twenty twenty sixth Texas Primary with some of

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the state's best politics reporters. And we have a lot

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to talk about today in conversation with tripcast co host

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Eleen or klibanoff panel will discuss results from the Senate

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race battles for the Texas Legislature, what races are going

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to runoffs, and more. Our program will run approximately an hour,

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and we'll have time for a brief Q and A

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so to get to as many questions as possible. You

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can submect questions through our Q and A portal at

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Texastribune dot Texas Tribune dot org slash ask that's Texis

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Tribune dot org slash ask and for those here in

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our studio, there's even some QR codes in the back

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which you can use to.

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Speaker 1: Get to our Q and A page.

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Speaker 2: We are grateful for the support of our sponsors Our

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presenting sponsor today is Builders, and our major sponsors for

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today's program are Texas Matters and Raizer hand Texas. Also

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just want to note that these organizations are sponsors of

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our larger twenty twenty six Texas Voter Guide, which you

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can use as a resource through the runoffs and leading

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up to the general election. So today's conversation is but

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one aspect of the way the Tribune is covering this

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election year. So keep that link Texastribune dot org slash

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vote handy for the runoff races, general election this November,

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and stay tuned for future Texas Tribune events at texastribune

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dot org slash events Amplify. Austin is happening now. If

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You can visit Texastribune dot org slash amplify for more information.

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That's Texastribune dot org slash amplify. And we're going to

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have Eleanor introduced today's Tribecast guests. So let's go ahead

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and begin today's program.

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Speaker 3: Eleanor, thank you, hello, and welcome to this very special

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episode of the Tribecast Live the Morning After. Addition, I'm

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Eleanor Klebanov, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune.

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Not joined by Matthew Watkins this week, as he is,

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I assume just sleeping off an exciting night of primary results.

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We are very excited to just dive into what last

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night meant, you know, what we're looking at for the

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runoff where things go from here. So I'll go ahead

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and introduce our panelists. We are joined by Renzo Downey,

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lead author of the Texas Tribune subscriber politics newsletter The Blast. Rerenzo,

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thanks for being here, Good to see you. James Barragon,

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anchor at Spectrums Texas Capital Tonight and once and former

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co host of the Texas Trip Cast. Welcome back.

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Speaker 1: Hi, Ellan, It's good to be back, Thanks.

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Speaker 3: For having thanks for being here. Patrick's v Tech Texas

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Tribune alum, current free agent who stepped in to help

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us with election night. Thank god, Patrick, Thanks for coming

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in from DC.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very happy to be here.

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Speaker 3: And bringing US bagels this morning, which was much appreciated.

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Speaker 1: I did not get a bagel.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I said, I know, Texas isn't known for bagels,

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So that's the one cultural export I can make.

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Speaker 3: It absolutely and last but not lease. Brad Johnson, co

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founder and reporter at Texas Bullpen, thanks for coming two

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floors up.

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Speaker 5: Glad to be here. No idea what we're about to

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talk about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing to talk about. Very exciting night. Last night

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in some ways sort of played out the way we expected,

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some big surprises. Let's start with the big name race

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that we do have a clear resolution for, which is

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the Democratic primary for Senate. After weeks of i mean

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competing polls by the day, sometimes by the hour, that

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promised a very contentious down to the wire race. What

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we ended up seeing was James Tallerico came through with

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a fairly decisive victory. As of now about he's got

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about fifty three percent of the vote to Jasmine Crockett's

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forty six percent. I mean, Renzo, start us off. What

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happened here? What are we seeing?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think what we saw last night is that

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having a robust campaign, having the money support behind you

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still matters. In Texas, and you know, the Republicans were

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potentially trying to boost Jasmine Crockett for that seat because

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she would have been a easier general election candidate to beat.

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So I think we're going to see a lot of

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national interest, a lot of national money come into this race.

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And you know there's going to be some time for

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tell Rica to try to shore up, try to shore

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up the Democratic vote because you know, he wrapped that

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up a little bit, you know, two months before Cornin

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or packs that have wrapped theirs up.

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Speaker 1: So that's gonna be interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, James, when you look at sort

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of the map and where tall A Rico performed, I mean,

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what are you taking away from that? I mean we, frankly,

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we just saw a huge Democratic turnout in general. How

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did that sort of help him?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think the Democratic turnout is a testament to

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both of these really exciting young candidates, these rising stars,

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and Jasmine Crockett and James Taller Rico, they both said

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they wanted to expand the electorate, go after young voters

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who have not voted, and every Democrat has to say

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that this is their playbook. We've heard every Democratic candidate

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to talk about this, but they happened to deliver. And

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tall Rico yesterday in his speech afterwards, said basically, we

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got those young voters. We also got independents and Republicans

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who had not voted for Democrats before. And so his

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strategy worked. His campaign worked because that's what he said

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he wanted to do from the beginning beginning right expand

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that electorate, reach out to independence and voters that he

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thought were persuadable, and he seemed to deliver. And also

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just to the regions that we're talking about, we're looking

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at the early voting. Last night, we were seeing Jasmine

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Crockett perform well in places like Harris County and Dallas County.

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And we can talk more about Dallas County if we want,

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because I know that was a whole debacle. But she

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was hitting high fifties, not really in the sixties, maybe

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low sixties in the places that she needed to be

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really really overperforming. Tall Rico up and down Central Texas

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in the early votes sometimes was at seventy five to

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twenty five. I mean, he was a wrecking ball. And

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that's what you need. You need people who are gonna

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sort of understand the assignment and then execute it. And

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he did execute it. And you know, I think it's

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a real testament to Talla Rico because, as you said,

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Jasmine Crockett had the higher name ID. She's all over

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cable news, She's been on CNN, MSNBC, whatever you want.

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She had the higher name recognition in the early polls.

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I think throughout most of this I thought that Crockett

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probably had the edge. And I have to give kudos

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to Rebecca Allen, politics editor over there waving at me.

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She's gonna sort of lurd this over me for months,

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but Rebecca thought that taller Rico was going to win.

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I was on the Crockett bus for until maybe like

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five days ago, until Friday or Thursday, until like last week,

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because I didn't see her executing the plan in the

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way that Tallarico was executing. I mean, he had a

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ground game. He has a solid ground game. It seemed

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like he had a better way of dealing with the

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Dallas County situation. I mean, I talked to the Crockett

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campaign yesterday about what they were doing about voters being

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turned away, and they're like, we're jumping on radio and

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social media, which is fine, But I was talking to

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other campaigns in Dallas who were saying, like, we've got

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people there to direct them to the correct precinct, so

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we can beat this course to death as much as

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we want. But social media is not real life. You

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still got to have the ground game, and tall Rico

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had the ground game.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Patrick, I'm curious you're read on this because

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I think there isn't. I think when Jasmine Crockett entered

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the race, there was sort of this, maybe some frustrations

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like what we're gonna spend I mean, Colin Allred was

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already in the race, but we're gonna spend a lot

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of time and money on a primary when we should

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be focusing on November. The counter argument is, you know,

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primaries test candidates, they show the strength of a campaign.

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They'd let you see where those weaknesses are. It seems

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like in some ways this is a you know, example

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of that that you can start to see where the

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cracks are in a campaign before November. What's sort of

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your read on the Crockett campaign.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a few things on that. I mean, that's certainly the.

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Speaker 4: Optimistic take from Democrats who watched this contentious primary play out.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they.

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Speaker 4: Cringed a little bit, but they also said, you know,

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this is you know, a great moment for us, almost

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unprecedented in recent history to have a statewide primary with

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two well known, well funded candidates duking it out, you know,

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having a good faith debate of ideas and political strategies.

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And I do think that there's some legitimacy to that

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and the idea that you know, they were each of

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them were made better candidates through this process. I think

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that this process did reveal that, you know, as we've

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all I think agreed so far, that Crockett did not

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have as organized of a campaign as some of her

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supporters would have hoped for, which would have had potentially

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devastating impacts in the general election if she were the nominee,

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and I'm sure Democrats would like to know about those

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shortcomings now in her political operation versus if she becomes

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a nominee and has to go up against the Publicans

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are going to just always be better organized and better

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funded in Texas in most cases. Number two, You know,

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I would say that particularly the outreach that James Tallerco

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did to Hispanic voters benefited him. I think in both

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a way that helped in the primary, but also a

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general election. I mean, I think Hispanic voters were crucial

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for him in winning the primary getting the actual nomination,

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but it also doubled as a good test run for

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a general election where that voting block is going to

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be up for grabs. I mean, we have seen Hispanic voters,

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you know, particularly in South Texas geographically speaking, you know,

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become an increasingly competitive voting block between the two parties.

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And so you know, tall Rico was smart to focus

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on that in the primary because it also will help

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him and make him a better candidate in the general potentially.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Brad, we saw this morning Jasmine Crockett conceded

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struck a pretty unify or unity tone. I mean, what

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do you see. I think let's talk about you know,

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we're going to come back to Tallarico's odds in the

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general once we sort of talk about who who is

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going to be on the Republican side, But in terms

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of where the party stands unifying behind this candidate as

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sort of their marquee, big name, what do you see

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in there?

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Speaker 5: I think Democrats decided not to give Republicans exactly what

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they wanted, which was a Jasmine Crockett top of the

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ticket candidacy. Obviously it's a counterfactual. We'll never know how

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a Jasmin Crockett would have performed in November, but there

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is a reason the NRSC spent so much money trying

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to get her in the race. And I think she

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was always going to at least she was always close

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to getting in the race without that, but they felt

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a need and a desire to do that, and there's

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a reason for that action. Speak louder than rhetoric on this,

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I think. Another big takeaway for me, and I said

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this last night on the health site known as Twitter

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big money.

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Speaker 3: Known as xRy.

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Speaker 5: Please thanks for the correction. I appreciate that big money

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plays very bigly in this state, especially in a state

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in state wide races. You know, similar to James, I

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thought Crockett was going to get the nod. Maybe it

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would have been very tight, you know. Uh, Tellerico certainly

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had momentum, but with all the polling being a wreck,

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which is another thing we should discuss, pulling was a mess.

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I leaned on, Well, the celebrity is probably gonna win.

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The other race I pointed to in making that argument

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was age. It didn't turn out that way, either it

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went the other way, and it turns out the person

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with that spent more money in both of those races

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came out on top, and came out on top by

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a decent margin. You know, nobody thought Mace Middleton was

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going to exceed Chip Roy and even get close. It

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was gonna be, you know, tough to do. So money's

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not everything, and it's not the whole picture of running

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a good campaign. But if you just look at the

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the ad impact spread on television ad spending, tall Rico

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outspent Crockett a lot to have a little can I

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can I.

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Speaker 1: Just jump in here because I think it's I think

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it's interesting, and I do think to Patrick's point that

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this primary was good for both Crockett and tall Rico.

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I think there's a lot of lessons learned. But I

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think Talla Rico. The reason why I was on the

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Crockett train so much is that in this day and age,

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sort of when there's a President Trump and the White House,

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politics are so combative, there no holds barred. Crockett presented

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somebody who said, I can rival that on the Democratic side,

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which seemed like something that Democratic candidates wanted, and I

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think they still do. I mean, it's what's the what's

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the score of fifty three, forty seven or whatever. I mean,

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it's still a tight race. I mean it's not it's

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it's not it's not. I mean, it's it's pretty I mean,

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it's it's closer than we've seen other primaries. I guess,

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so there are a significant amount of Democrats who did

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want what Jasmine Crockett was selling. I guess to your

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point of it makes them better candidates, it makes tall

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Rico a better candidate. He still got to level up

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a bunch, doesn't he. I mean, he's still got to

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get that adopt that fiery side. Because to Brad's point,

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tall Rico spent thirty million dollars, executed it super well,

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did what he needed to do. But he's going to

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go up against either corn or Packs and Cornan just

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spent seventy million dollars attacking to people, tall Rico's gonna

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get attacked, and how's he gonna respond.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great question, and you know, all things,

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you know, considered, I don't think the attacks that tall

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Rico faced his primary in terms of actual paid media advertising,

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were that intense. I mean, you know, the Crockett campaign

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and the pro Crocket super pac ran ads talking about

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you know, the campaign cash he's gotten from a bipartisan

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pack connected to you know, top Trump donor Miraam Needles.

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And that was kind of the biggest paid media attack

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I saw on him.

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Speaker 5: No, a Democrat wants to expand gamble exactly.

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Speaker 1: You know, So that's pretty But it was social media

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they were I mean they were sure, sure, I do.

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Speaker 4: I do think that the social media discourse was a

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good points for him, but the paid the paid media

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what most Texans were actually seeing, you know. As far

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as negative information about taller Ricle, I thought it was

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pretty mild. And so that's that's just to say I

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agree with you that it wasn't like taller Ico was

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tested that strongly on how to deal with paid media

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taxing this in the primary, and he's gonna happen.

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Speaker 3: Like particularly full throat at a tax like I think

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between one am last night when it became clear that

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they were going to call it for him to now

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I've seen that that clip going around of you know

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where he said, you know, Republicans are saying you know,

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he was saying, God is non binary. I've seen it

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on my Twitter like a billion times. They're going to

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Republicans are like on a dime.

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Speaker 1: Just remember, just remember what happened to Colin already. You

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know they've got to be prepared for this. And that's

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my big question. How does tall rical respond to those

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kinds of things?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, let's talk about the other side of

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the ticket, because before we can Republicans can even really

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get to reigning hell fire on James Tallerico, they.

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Speaker 5: Have to rein here.

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Speaker 3: Rain go hire on each other, engage a little friendly fire,

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the least friendly fire we've seen in a long time

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in a Republican primary, Renzo. I mean last night John Cornyn,

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did he overperform? Did he perform how we should have expected?

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What did we see on the Republican side?

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Speaker 6: Is Cornan still up by one and that he's up

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by like one and a half points.

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Speaker 3: Right aw, twenty five thousand votes.

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Speaker 6: I don't think many people expected Cornan to be in

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the top position of that runoff, and that's at testament

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to his experience, his the number of campaigns he's run

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in Texas, UH and Paxton. The Paxston campaign didn't feel

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like it lit up until very late in the cycle,

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you know, trying to focus their attention when more people

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are going to be paying attention. But there weren't as

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many Cornan attacks as you were. I mean, everything was

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Paxton Wesley Hunt attacks right as far as you know

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I was seen.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean the Wesley Hunt spoiler of this, right,

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I mean, what is your read on who those who

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gets those votes now in a runoff?

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Speaker 6: As far as who gets those votes, I'm not sure

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I could see that going either way. But I think

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that Wesley Hunt did his job in that he prevented

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Cornyan from winning outright last night?

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Speaker 1: Was that his job?

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Speaker 3: Well, it was a job. Who gave him that job,

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who gave him that job? Who they they gave that's

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what they wanted him to do.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I mean part of his reason of why

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he jumped in was that Paxton wasn't out there enough.

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That was his initial pitch of why he was jumping in.

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And so so his vote sharees seemed to make the difference.

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So here we are, you know, I.

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Speaker 4: Mean, yeah, I mean Hunt was clearly gaining some momentum

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I think earlier this year, and that's why you saw

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this rush of spending against him kind of around maybe

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it was like late January, early February, kind of in

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the weeks right before early voting. So I think Hunt

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was a real threat to make potentially make the runoff,

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and that alarmed both Cornyn and Paxton's camps, and in

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they're outside groups because corn and Paxton want to face

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each other, both want to face each other if there

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was going to be a runoff, They're both more familiar

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with each other. The battle lines are more clear, and

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so you know, I think Hunt, you know, had some

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real potential earlier this year, but he ultimately can not

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overcome you know, I think there was like eight to

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ten million dollars worth of ads against him, you know,

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as it became clear that he was maybe competitive for runoffs, and.

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Speaker 1: Paxton's huge popularity among the Republican base, right, I mean,

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he he was leading the whole time, which I think,

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going back to Renzo's point, I think it can't be

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overstated how good of a night it was for corn

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I mean, obviously he didn't win it out right, but

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his plan all along has been to get into a runoff.

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That's what he's been saying all along. He wants Paxton

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in the runoff, they're gonna spend a whole ton more money.

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And they again they executed their plan. We did see

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hunt rising and then you had to like sort of

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punch down and make sure he stayed down. And it

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wasn't a huge threat, but Cornyn's team had executed. And again,

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social media is not real life. You saw people dunking

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on him because he had these like small campaign events

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and it made me think sort of Joe Biden in

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twenty twenty with a small campaign, and what did Joe

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Biden do. He eventually became the President of the United States.

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I mean, these people are running good campaigns and I

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think it was He's Cornyn is still leading that races.

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But that's an overperformance.

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Speaker 3: It's an overperformance in the context of this race, right.

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Speaker 1: But for people you were saying he was dead in

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the water, of course.

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Speaker 3: Right, But for a long time incumbent, like a well

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respected state senator to be you know, barely eking out

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sort of this victory over I would say a candidate

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with a lot of baggage I was I saw this morning.

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You know, team Cornyn has sort of started pushing this

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judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton messaging, and then

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I saw a state representative, Mitch Little just tweeted back,

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why wasn't today judgment Day? Like kind of like, you know,

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you think that like another three months of this is

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gonna suddenly, you know, change everything, and voters are going

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to really change their opinion on Ken Paxton. Brad, I

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don't know if you have thoughts on where this is going.

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Speaker 5: It's a big wonder whether which way the Wesley Hunt

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voters go. And I think the question there is which

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is a bigger brand problem in terms of who they're picking.

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Is it Cornyn's moderacy or relative moderacy or is it

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Paxton's personal baggage? And I guess then they have to

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make the decision. Do they want to give Democrats exactly

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what they want, which is a Ken Paxton led ticket?

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Doesn't matter? You know, this is still a red state

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until proven otherwise, and it has been getting redder. And

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the conversation among a lot of these activists is, so

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the hell, what you know, who cares if Kaxson's the

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top of the ticket. Maybe we don't find that ideal,

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Maybe that's going to cause headaches for us, but this

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is still Texas and to this point, the blue wave

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hasn't materialized at all.

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Speaker 4: Patrick, yet, I'm just gonna say, well, we're still talking

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about Wesley Hunt. I'm actually more curious where Wesley Hunt's

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financial backers go rather than his more than where I'm

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curious where his voters go.

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Speaker 1: And that's because.

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Speaker 4: You know, I'm a junkie, But I mean, you look

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at the amount of outside money that was spent on

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Wesley Hunt's behalf in this campaign and in the several

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months leading up to the campaign to build his state

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wide name ID. A lot of it was anonymous money

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that we still don't know the source of, but it

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was significant, and by some measures, more outside money. I

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think I could by objective measures, you could say more

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outside money was spent on behalf of Wesley Hunt in

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this primary than it was on behalf of Ken Paxton.

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So clearly there is some heavyweight donors that have been

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hanging back, shielding their identities behind the scenes supporting Hunt,

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and so I'm curious where they go, because, as we

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just discuss, money matters a lot.

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Speaker 1: This mysterious day that we're talking about. But apologies to

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the crowd, because we've been asked about Wesley Hunt and

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all four of us are like, well, who knows, you

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know who? They could go either way.

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Speaker 3: Really, somebody could find out.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Actually it does. I mean, I guess

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we'll see if Wesley Hunt makes an endorsement. I guess.

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But really the important thing is does President Trump make

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an endorsement and does he take into account what Brad

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just said, which is that James tall Rico is now

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the Democratic nominee. This is the scenario that Republicans Senate

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Republicans have been fearing, where James Talerco potentially runs against

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Cam Paxton. Does President Trump say I don't like that matchup.

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Cornyn looks like he can win it, and Cornyn he's

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got Chris la Civitta on his side. Lasibitta sent out

440
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some tweets yesterday that are not family friendly, and we

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can't say, but they were much stronger than judgment day

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about what they plan to do to can pack in

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this in this runoff. So I think that is the

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big question and sort of what happens.

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Speaker 3: There, Renzo, how would a Trump endorsement blow all this up?

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Speaker 6: Well, I actually almost wonder the strength of the Trump

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endorsement at this point, based on some other races that

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happened last night.

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Speaker 3: But we're gonna we're gonna get to that.

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Speaker 6: Within the Senate primary. I think obviously it would put

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things more in Cornin's corner. And I think another point

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about corn In with just how strong of a surprisingly

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strong of a campaign he ran and being able to

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turn out voters across the state. I think the conventional

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wisdom had been that in a runoff, the the excited,

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the animated anti corn voters we're going to be the

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ones who would turn out more, and that corner would

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be doomed in a run off. But if it is

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such a low turnout environment as en typically are, then

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I think last night Cornan proved that he's able to

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turn out his voters.

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Speaker 1: So you know that's another point, is calm, I.

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Speaker 3: Say, yeah, I think we are obviously going to see

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Republicans spending a god awful amount of money and spending

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a lot of time and energy fighting each other. You're

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James Tallerico, you kind of get to like stretch out

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till the general, pinch your pennies a little bit, spend

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your money on building that general election campaign. I mean,

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how does that advantage him? Brad, you want to take that.

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Speaker 5: How does that advantage Cornyn tall Rico. Sorry, yeah, I'm sorry,

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I tuned out for a second. Tall Rico's When I

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look at a tallar Rico candidacy, and I try and

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look at it from the Republican side, I am not

474
00:24:58,839 --> 00:25:03,160
really caring about the Senate seat. Yeah, I don't want

475
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,599
to lose that if I'm a Republicans. But I'm more

476
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:10,799
worried about down ballot in the Texas House specifically, and

477
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,880
that is people in our sphere. That is what they've

478
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,680
been talking about for days and days and weeks. You know,

479
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:23,400
they already had the ads cut with Jasmine Crockett's viral moment.

480
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,359
Whether it was taken out of context or not doesn't

481
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,839
really matter, because the ads would have been run about

482
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,599
the slave mentality of Hispanics in South Texas who voted

483
00:25:32,599 --> 00:25:36,839
for Trump. That's not the case anymore. And Tallarico performed

484
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,000
very well down there on the ground. Sentiment I heard

485
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,200
was the valley is very excited about tall Rico, and

486
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:45,839
so I think.

487
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: That I think you mean Pallarico.

488
00:25:47,519 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 3: Tallarico.

489
00:25:51,519 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 5: Sorry, I'm white, is Rice. I can't. I think that

490
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:58,759
more than anything is going to have is going to

491
00:25:58,799 --> 00:26:02,559
be the biggest effect in this race in November. The

492
00:26:02,599 --> 00:26:06,839
Senate seat is one of one hundred. If Republicans, if

493
00:26:06,839 --> 00:26:09,880
they're a majority in the House, drops significantly or even

494
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,599
they lose that in my view, maybe it's because I

495
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,079
cover this every day that is far more significant than

496
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:15,799
one Senate seat.

497
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,799
Speaker 3: I mean, well, first of all, you know, we're gonna

498
00:26:19,799 --> 00:26:22,000
get Tallerrico in the valley. We're also going to get

499
00:26:22,319 --> 00:26:24,240
I saw the tweet going around. A very exciting thing,

500
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,400
which is getting to hear President Trump mispronounced tall Rico probably,

501
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:29,960
which gonna be so fun for everyone.

502
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:31,599
Speaker 5: I like how James pronounced it.

503
00:26:31,759 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, that's how they pronounced it in the ad.

504
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,839
You guys, this is yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

505
00:26:37,319 --> 00:26:38,119
Nobody canceled me.

506
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: Please any better you than an give the rest of

507
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,559
us something? Please don't especially, I mean, so, I mean,

508
00:26:46,599 --> 00:26:47,799
this is going to have it. This is sort of

509
00:26:47,839 --> 00:26:50,200
this marquee race. We did see Democrats turn out in

510
00:26:50,319 --> 00:26:55,440
huge numbers, sort of comparably, we're seeing these little pieces

511
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,200
of the puzzle. I mean, we saw a Senate District

512
00:26:57,319 --> 00:26:59,559
nine flip for a Democrat in Terrent County for the

513
00:26:59,559 --> 00:27:05,839
first time in decades. Slash potentially ever, and yet a

514
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,559
Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since nineteen

515
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,519
ninety four, Patrick, is this the year the Democrats really

516
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:13,200
changed that?

517
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,559
Speaker 1: Before you answer that, how many times have you been asked.

518
00:27:15,319 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 3: That on this change off this stage exact chair?

519
00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I don't know if this is the

520
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:30,680
answer to the question, but.

521
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 3: People don't usually tell me that they're dodging the question.

522
00:27:29,519 --> 00:27:30,119
They just do it.

523
00:27:30,599 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 4: Look, I think the moment is very similar to twenty

524
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,200
eighteen first mid terms of a you know, of a

525
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,240
Trump term. So the national environment, you know, favors Democrats.

526
00:27:39,079 --> 00:27:41,319
And I think tallar Rico is is similar to Better

527
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,319
or Work in some ways. He's different from Better or

528
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,279
Work in some ways at least different from the twenty

529
00:27:46,319 --> 00:27:48,079
eighteen version of Better or Work, who was a little

530
00:27:48,079 --> 00:27:51,039
resistant to professional political advice in that race. And I

531
00:27:51,039 --> 00:27:53,680
think some people looking back on that race, which you know, betto,

532
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,920
would have taken a little more professional political advice and

533
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,440
he maybe would have beaten Ted Cruz. I think tall Rico,

534
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,079
just based on watching him in the prime Mary clearly

535
00:28:01,319 --> 00:28:04,200
is willing to take professional political advice and surround himself

536
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,799
with you know, knowledgeable and very capable consultant.

537
00:28:08,839 --> 00:28:11,079
Speaker 1: He's got the opposite, maybe a little bit of paraality exactly.

538
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you could, you could argue go too far

539
00:28:12,799 --> 00:28:14,920
in that direction. So those are some key differences I

540
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,559
think between Tallerrico now Beto in twenty eighteen. But you know,

541
00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:21,000
we saw in twenty eighteen this is now drussing more

542
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,839
of the Republican side of the race. We saw in

543
00:28:22,839 --> 00:28:26,119
twenty eighteen how a Republican you know, can win a

544
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,599
Senate race in Texas, but it could be closer than

545
00:28:28,759 --> 00:28:30,359
his party wants it to be and there could be

546
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,519
disastrous effects down ballot. You know, Ted Cruz won by

547
00:28:33,599 --> 00:28:37,240
I think three percentage points in twenty eighteen. But down

548
00:28:37,279 --> 00:28:39,960
ballot Democrats picked up two US House seats, they picked

549
00:28:40,039 --> 00:28:43,920
up I think a dozen state legislative seats, and then

550
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,240
there's like politically, there's a ripple effect, you know, that

551
00:28:47,279 --> 00:28:50,519
creates new stars within the Democratic Party in Texas. Two

552
00:28:50,519 --> 00:28:52,519
of the people who picked up seats that cycle were

553
00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:56,440
Colin all Red and James tallerco and they ran for

554
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,680
statewide office and continue to build the Democratic bench in Texas.

555
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,920
And so that's all to say, when you have a

556
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,079
Republican who underperforms at the top of the ticket. You

557
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,200
have to consider all these down ballid effects, not just

558
00:29:07,279 --> 00:29:09,160
in the moment, but how it could launch the careers

559
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,000
of people who can continue to try to try to

560
00:29:11,079 --> 00:29:12,079
change the face of power.

561
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 5: In Texas, something that I think we need to take

562
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,440
into account. Patrick's absolutely right about the general environment looking

563
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:21,759
very similar to eighteen. Something we don't know how it's

564
00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:24,119
going to play out. Is there's no more straight ticket voting.

565
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:26,799
Is that a good thing for Democrats or a bad

566
00:29:26,799 --> 00:29:29,200
thing for Democrats when we get to November. I don't know,

567
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,720
but it is a big difference, and probably it doesn't

568
00:29:33,759 --> 00:29:36,880
play much at the top of the ticket. But what

569
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,799
I just said about down ballot in the state House,

570
00:29:38,839 --> 00:29:43,160
you know, that could very well affect things massively and

571
00:29:43,799 --> 00:29:47,119
be a different factor compared to what we saw in

572
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:47,480
twenty oh.

573
00:29:47,519 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: But that's probably good for James Taller Rico, right, because

574
00:29:49,559 --> 00:29:51,559
when you said the thing about straight ticket voting, I said, oh,

575
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:54,960
probably bad. But then tall Rico's counting on crossover voters.

576
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,119
Speaker 3: Well, it could be good for tall Rico, but not

577
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:58,440
shift the rest of the environment.

578
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 5: Here's a broader blue Yeah, I see the other thing

579
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,119
I'll say about the original question of what does this

580
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:05,960
do for tall Rico.

581
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: There's this truism in politics, right if your opponent is

582
00:30:11,759 --> 00:30:14,640
what you guys said, hell fire is raining down on them,

583
00:30:14,759 --> 00:30:16,559
you just get the heck out of the way. Just

584
00:30:16,599 --> 00:30:19,559
get out of the way. Let those two guys shoot

585
00:30:19,599 --> 00:30:22,599
at each other. And I think tall Rico is going

586
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,680
to be very good actually at campaigning with down ballot people,

587
00:30:27,279 --> 00:30:29,359
better or rot. There was a criticism that he wasn't

588
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,319
great at that. I think James tallerco he's a creature

589
00:30:32,359 --> 00:30:34,640
of the house. Oh sure, he's out there with Bobby Police.

590
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 5: He certainly understands the importance of it. But it's a

591
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:44,400
different thing entirely mechanism wise to going getting motivated by

592
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,079
tall Rico, casting your ballot there and then making it

593
00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:49,079
all the way down the ballot versus just hitting one

594
00:30:49,119 --> 00:30:51,920
button and going all the way down ballot for Democrats.

595
00:30:52,079 --> 00:30:53,839
Speaker 1: This is the reality we live in now, which is

596
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,559
no more straight ticket voting. There was this criticism, I

597
00:30:56,559 --> 00:30:59,319
think from the Crockett campaign, which was that he didn't

598
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,680
care about down ballot races, which I thought was completely unfair.

599
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,000
I mean, he's a guy from that su I think

600
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,119
he's going to be very good at that, probably has

601
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,319
learned that lesson from Beto O'Rourke. I think it's going

602
00:31:09,359 --> 00:31:11,759
to be interesting to see sort of how they coordinate.

603
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,480
But listen, they're Texas Democrats. Always an opportunity for them

604
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:15,920
to fumble.

605
00:31:17,599 --> 00:31:21,079
Speaker 3: Thank you for that. Let's talk about money, which we've

606
00:31:21,079 --> 00:31:24,039
sort of been alluding to. Obviously huge money at the

607
00:31:24,039 --> 00:31:27,920
top of the ticket, but in two races slightly lower

608
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,079
down the ballot on the Republican side, we saw the

609
00:31:30,119 --> 00:31:33,759
impact of just huge spending. In the attorney general's race,

610
00:31:33,799 --> 00:31:38,039
which you mentioned, May's Middleton self funding close to twelve

611
00:31:38,039 --> 00:31:41,480
million dollars of his own money to his campaign, really

612
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:44,559
putting him on top of Chip Roy they're going to

613
00:31:44,559 --> 00:31:47,240
a runoff. And then in the comptroller race, Don Haffeins,

614
00:31:47,279 --> 00:31:51,160
who loaned his campaign ten million dollars, just wanted outright

615
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,279
jumping over Christi Kratick and the sort of pseudo interim

616
00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:02,400
or pseudo incumbent interim comptroller Kelly Hancock. Renzo. Is it

617
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:03,920
just all about money? Is that the only thing that

618
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:04,680
matters anymore?

619
00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: Middleton's first name is Maga, right.

620
00:32:07,319 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 3: That's that's correct.

621
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, because based on all the ads that.

622
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:14,759
Speaker 3: You're Maga Maze Middleton yet.

623
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: Just you wait, yeah, so I'm sorry, what was the question?

624
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 3: Is money? The only thing that to get the Maga

625
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,359
May's joke out is money? The only thing that matters?

626
00:32:27,359 --> 00:32:28,200
Can you buy an election?

627
00:32:28,559 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 6: Well, when you've got a race where I mean nobody

628
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,079
really knows any of the candidates, I mean, Chip Roy

629
00:32:34,279 --> 00:32:37,759
would be the known name in that, but uh, as

630
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:40,319
we've been talking about at the top of the ticket,

631
00:32:40,759 --> 00:32:44,680
just getting that with the money, with the ads, getting

632
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,640
your name out there is still you know, the most

633
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,799
effective way, it seems. I mean, I think we were

634
00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:55,440
all in that social media bubble where it seemed like

635
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,799
Aaron Wright's was a movement, but Twitter is still not

636
00:33:00,079 --> 00:33:02,279
real life. Yeah, this many years later.

637
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,039
Speaker 3: I mean, Packson's chosen successor and Aaron Wrights yes calling

638
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:06,279
forth of four and.

639
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, And I was going to say, I mean,

640
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,359
I think this all proves that running state wide in

641
00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:14,000
Texas is a very humbling experience. And even if you

642
00:33:14,119 --> 00:33:17,519
enter a primary with high name ID, a national profile,

643
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,759
you know, strong endorsements, if you don't have the money

644
00:33:20,799 --> 00:33:24,519
to spread that message statewide, then you're at a serious

645
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:26,960
disadvantage and I think you would apply this to the

646
00:33:27,119 --> 00:33:28,920
You could extend this kind of to the power of

647
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,720
the Trump endorsement as well. You know, Trump endorsed so

648
00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:36,799
many people in this primary in Texas, and even if

649
00:33:36,839 --> 00:33:39,839
he didn't endorse someone, they had him in their ads,

650
00:33:40,279 --> 00:33:43,400
you know, and he was just ubiquitous whether he endorse

651
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,640
someone or not. And as a candidate, you know, you

652
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,039
have to have the resources and the political know how

653
00:33:49,359 --> 00:33:52,359
to be able to deploy you know, your ads in

654
00:33:52,359 --> 00:33:54,880
a way that cuts through all that noise and makes

655
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,640
clear that you can own your Trump endorsement. And that's

656
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,960
really hard, especially if Trump endorses you late in the game.

657
00:34:00,279 --> 00:34:03,079
You know, Sid Miller, the agriculture commissioner who lost reelection,

658
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,559
you know, finally got his long sought Trump reelection endorsement

659
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:10,079
on Friday, but it was after early voting had ended.

660
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,400
We were going into the weekend. You couldn't really submit

661
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,119
any more TV ads to the stations to air. And

662
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:18,480
so that's a moment where, yeah, you got the Trump endorsement,

663
00:34:18,559 --> 00:34:20,559
but do you have the money or the strategy or

664
00:34:20,559 --> 00:34:23,760
the professional know how to get it out? And I

665
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,360
don't think Sid Miller in that case had all of that.

666
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:27,599
Maybe he was, you know, maybe he was going to

667
00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:31,239
lose no matter what. But there's a contrast with Don Haffines,

668
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,639
the comptroller candidate who romped to victory, but he also

669
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,239
got a very late Trump endorsement the same Friday night

670
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,840
that Sid Miller did. And I talked to his campaign

671
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:44,079
and they said, you know, they had the ads already

672
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,639
created just in anticipation of a potential endorsement, so that

673
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,840
within twenty to thirty minutes after Trump put that post

674
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,159
on true Social, they were calling state you know, they

675
00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:55,000
were calling station managers and saying like, hey, can you

676
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,840
get the TV ad up saying we're endorsed by Trump.

677
00:34:57,119 --> 00:34:59,599
And so again that all goes back to just my

678
00:34:59,639 --> 00:35:02,239
broader point that if you don't have the money to

679
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,079
get out that message statewide or the political know how,

680
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,239
then you know, some of these things that we consider

681
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,960
big advantages a Trump endorsement high name ID to begin with,

682
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:11,920
aren't really that big of advantages.

683
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,159
Speaker 3: I've talked about this potentially even on this podcast before,

684
00:35:15,199 --> 00:35:18,239
but like at my nail salon, it's just all the

685
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,679
TVs just show like a YouTube channel that's just like

686
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,800
AI generated videos of animals playing with each other interrupted

687
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,960
by Don Haffins ads. That is just like I mean,

688
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,679
that's just like the they're just buying ads, space and

689
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,880
time everywhere that if you went to that nail salon,

690
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:35,880
you know, once a month for six months, you would

691
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,880
be like, Don Haffines is the only person running from

692
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,320
office in the state of Text Well.

693
00:35:39,199 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 1: Can I can I jump in here? Because it's two things.

694
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,559
It's not just the money, because there have been people

695
00:35:44,559 --> 00:35:47,280
who have a lot of money. Tony Sanchez, right and

696
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,960
Russ what did he have like forty million something ungodly right,

697
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,719
seventy million, seventy million dollars in two thousand and two

698
00:35:53,599 --> 00:35:55,519
for Tony Sanchez from the Dream Team and just was

699
00:35:55,559 --> 00:35:57,840
a complete dud. I mean we refer to that as

700
00:35:58,079 --> 00:36:01,039
the biggest laws I think in in a ticket for

701
00:36:01,119 --> 00:36:03,480
the Democrats. So you can have a lot of money

702
00:36:03,639 --> 00:36:07,880
and do a bad job. Don Huffines had a lot

703
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,960
of money, did a good job. But who runs his

704
00:36:10,039 --> 00:36:13,159
campaign or who's his big political consultant, Alan Blakemore, he

705
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,800
knows how to run campaigns in Texas. He knows how

706
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,840
to run Republican campaigns in Texas. You gotta have to

707
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,559
know how. And the other thing is that it's incredibly

708
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,760
humbling to run a state wide race in Texas to

709
00:36:26,159 --> 00:36:28,079
Jasmine Crockett. And this is why I was on the

710
00:36:28,159 --> 00:36:30,840
Jasmine Crockett train for so long in terms of thinking

711
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,800
that she would win. We've been watching this woman win

712
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,519
races that she had no business winning for the last

713
00:36:38,519 --> 00:36:41,320
six years. I mean, she's talked about it. She said

714
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,800
the establishment was against me when I ran for the

715
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,360
state House. The establishment was against me. Of course she

716
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,960
got the EBJ endorsement, but most of the establishment was

717
00:36:49,079 --> 00:36:52,280
against her when she ran for Congress. So I said,

718
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,000
this is a person who has something here. But running

719
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,360
in a congressional race, as Colin already found out, is

720
00:36:58,559 --> 00:37:01,320
very different from running a wide race. You've got to

721
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,800
be able to level it up all that much more.

722
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,719
And that's why I'm watching Talla Rico and sort of

723
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,239
what he does to level up in this next phase

724
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:08,760
of the election.

725
00:37:10,559 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 5: One of the big winners of this election cycle was

726
00:37:15,599 --> 00:37:18,800
Terry Lowry and his link letter. If you look at

727
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,639
the the money spent by these candidates made Middleton, John

728
00:37:21,679 --> 00:37:27,440
Cornyn was actually on it. Don Huffines bou French was

729
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,000
on it. It's it's a mail piece that is sent

730
00:37:31,039 --> 00:37:35,960
out to every every Republican voter across the states, and

731
00:37:36,519 --> 00:37:40,079
it's pay to play. But the pay to play works,

732
00:37:40,079 --> 00:37:42,960
it turns out and every one of those candidates outperforms

733
00:37:43,079 --> 00:37:44,480
what we thought they were going to do if not.

734
00:37:44,679 --> 00:37:48,079
In hulf Fine's case, went out right. You know, of

735
00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:50,559
all the polling bo French we saw he was down

736
00:37:50,599 --> 00:37:53,039
at like eight percent. He was on all these slate

737
00:37:53,119 --> 00:37:54,880
cards link letter being the biggest one but not the

738
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,360
only one for Railroad Commission, for Railroad Commission, thank you,

739
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:01,559
and uh it's it works, it really does. And you

740
00:38:01,559 --> 00:38:04,159
look down ballot further at some of these House candidates.

741
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,079
Dennis Geeseman just upset Stan Kitzman. You know, he was

742
00:38:07,119 --> 00:38:10,360
on a lot of these slate cards. It's it's kind

743
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,239
of a dirty tactic, but politics is dirty and it works.

744
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,119
And in watching the results come in, I couldn't help

745
00:38:17,119 --> 00:38:19,360
but think man Terry Lowry is going to make a

746
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:20,440
killing next cycle.

747
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 3: I mean, right, it's a huge state. It's hugely expensive

748
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,079
to get your you know, TV ads up if you

749
00:38:26,079 --> 00:38:28,480
can sort of get in with those sort of key

750
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,679
key players, which often also cost money. I mean, let's

751
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,400
talk about the Trump endorsement and the Abbot endorsement, which

752
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:39,000
frankly a muddled night for both of them. We saw

753
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:43,039
Governor Greg Abbott endorse Kelly Hancock for comptroller who lost,

754
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:47,079
but Nate Sheets for AGG commissioner who won. Meanwhile, across

755
00:38:47,119 --> 00:38:50,159
the exactly across the you know line, we saw Trump

756
00:38:50,199 --> 00:38:53,760
endorse Don Huffins for comptroller who won and Sid Miller

757
00:38:53,760 --> 00:39:01,000
for AGG commissioner who lost. Does any of us mean anything, Renzo, Well, no,

758
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:02,400
you can say.

759
00:39:02,199 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 1: No, Yeah, I know.

760
00:39:05,039 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 6: I just assumed that a voter who doesn't know any

761
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,599
of the candidates, doesn't anything about the race, but has

762
00:39:11,599 --> 00:39:13,639
decided they're going to go vote, is going to google,

763
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,000
you know, the candidates and who's endorsed them, and uh

764
00:39:17,519 --> 00:39:20,000
see that Donald Trump is back to this person and

765
00:39:20,039 --> 00:39:23,199
be like, oh, no, there it is. But uh, you know,

766
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:27,840
in this mid term, President Trump was not on the ballot.

767
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:33,440
And you know, I think that in some of those

768
00:39:33,519 --> 00:39:38,480
races like uh CD nine down in you know, Southeast

769
00:39:38,519 --> 00:39:43,360
Texas with Briscoe Caine and Alex Mueler. Uh, those are

770
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,280
races where uh, you know, that's not the top of

771
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:48,880
mind for voters.

772
00:39:49,119 --> 00:39:49,599
Speaker 1: Uh.

773
00:39:49,639 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 6: And you know, at that point, I think it probably

774
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:53,719
becomes a bit more of a coin flip of where

775
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,519
they're actually going to go. And was I think when

776
00:39:57,599 --> 00:40:01,000
we saw the strength of the Abbot endorsement was in

777
00:40:01,039 --> 00:40:07,679
the Texas House, the state House primary cycle twenty fourteen,

778
00:40:08,119 --> 00:40:12,679
when you know he was touring the state with those candidates,

779
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,239
going to their districts and boosting the vote for them

780
00:40:16,639 --> 00:40:20,960
in the area. But with a bunch of these congressional races,

781
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:25,320
Like was like, how often did have it show up

782
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,039
with Brisco Caine?

783
00:40:27,679 --> 00:40:30,559
Speaker 3: I don't know, not often, yeah, right, And certainly like

784
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,360
on the Trump endorsement, I mean, it's like a true

785
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,639
social post that you then get to put on your ads.

786
00:40:35,639 --> 00:40:37,239
It's not like boots on the ground.

787
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,559
Speaker 6: And I also think there's been some people in conservative

788
00:40:41,599 --> 00:40:48,280
circles discounting the the validity of a Trump endorsement, like

789
00:40:48,599 --> 00:40:52,159
does does President Trump actually know these people or has

790
00:40:52,199 --> 00:40:53,960
somebody told him to endorse?

791
00:40:54,639 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 1: Uh? And there's that mysterious day.

792
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,559
Speaker 5: I think it's it's less complicated. It's that somebody mentioned

793
00:41:02,599 --> 00:41:04,519
all the ads, maybe was Patrick, that all the ads

794
00:41:04,519 --> 00:41:07,719
had Trump on it, and everyone's calling themselves a mega conservative.

795
00:41:09,039 --> 00:41:11,480
How do you know the difference between who has a

796
00:41:11,519 --> 00:41:14,239
specific endorsement and who just loves Donald Trump?

797
00:41:14,559 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 3: Right, Maga maze, you would be led to believe was

798
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:18,000
endorsed by Trump.

799
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 5: Right and exactly. You know, I think the endorsement still

800
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:26,559
has a lot of value, But when it's getting drowned

801
00:41:26,559 --> 00:41:29,639
out by every single ad you can possibly see that

802
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,320
has Donald Trump's face on it, people don't. People don't

803
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,519
go look up who is endorsed by who they see

804
00:41:36,519 --> 00:41:40,480
the TV ads. And if one candidate is touting a

805
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,360
Trump endorsement or blazoning Trump's face on everything and the

806
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,440
other one's not, they're going to be more likely to

807
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,480
go that way. But if they're all doing it, then

808
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:49,119
it's kind.

809
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,159
Speaker 1: Of a wash.

810
00:41:50,519 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: And I'll just add two things on that. Trump really

811
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,559
didn't do much for his endorsed candidates this cycle in

812
00:41:56,639 --> 00:42:01,199
Texas beyond issuing the truth social you know post. The

813
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,880
most he did beyond that was he appeared in Corpus

814
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,039
Christi on the Friday afternoon, on the last day of

815
00:42:07,079 --> 00:42:10,960
early voting, at an ostensibly official event, and brought a

816
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,199
couple of the candidates on stage to say a few words.

817
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,079
We've seen in other places in the country and even

818
00:42:16,079 --> 00:42:18,559
in Texas, what Trump can do when he really cares

819
00:42:18,599 --> 00:42:20,880
about a race. I mean he'll come and do multiple candidate,

820
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,320
multiple rallies with that candidate on stage. He will go

821
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,960
on the attack against their opponents. His political operation will

822
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,519
activate and reach out to who they've identified as the

823
00:42:30,599 --> 00:42:33,320
you know, Trump loyalist voters in Texas. You know Trump

824
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,960
even you know, does these telephone rallies the night before elections.

825
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,400
I didn't see any of that. There's any evidence of

826
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,559
that this time around. So Trump's endorsement was ubiquitous in

827
00:42:42,559 --> 00:42:44,880
his primary, but he didn't really you know, put his

828
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:46,679
shoulder into it from any of these candidates.

829
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 3: Will we see that in the general though, Like, does

830
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,679
that shift as we go into a general election? Potentially?

831
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 1: I think so? Yeah, I think Trump Trump.

832
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 4: He spoke to a local TV reporter after his rally

833
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,880
event in Corpus and said that he plans to be

834
00:43:00,159 --> 00:43:01,719
involved in general election in Texas.

835
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 1: But Trump says a lot of things. I mean, how

836
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:05,800
involved is he going to be? I mean, he's got

837
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,159
now we're dealing with the situation in Iran. We don't

838
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,320
forget Venezuela. He's got dealing with things in Congress. He's

839
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,280
got a lot of things going on. The economy is not.

840
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 3: I think that'll all be wrapped up by be wrapped.

841
00:43:16,519 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 1: Up by no. But here's here's my point. Here's my point,

842
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,639
and I'm going to earn my pro bone no paycheck

843
00:43:20,639 --> 00:43:24,320
from the Texas Tribune for this event. If I'm going

844
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:29,199
into the runoff, Patrick, I would rather have Abbot's endorsement

845
00:43:29,559 --> 00:43:33,280
than President Trump's, because Abbot is pounding the pavement. He's

846
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,599
out there holding events with his with his endorsed candidates,

847
00:43:37,199 --> 00:43:40,360
and he knows where to go find the votes in Texas.

848
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,280
I mean, before the AP called the ad commissioner race,

849
00:43:43,519 --> 00:43:46,039
the governor called it first. The governor congratulated in a

850
00:43:46,159 --> 00:43:48,239
sheets and they said, basically, we're done. We know this

851
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,960
state better than the AP essentially, which they probably do

852
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,800
because they know where to go find those votes. He's

853
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,039
going to go pound the pavement. And also, let's not

854
00:43:56,199 --> 00:43:59,039
just I also, I think the Abbot endorsements are going

855
00:43:59,119 --> 00:44:01,679
to count a lot. But I've got to point out

856
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,039
because I told her I would. Kate McGee, our former

857
00:44:04,079 --> 00:44:07,719
colleague here at the Texas Tribune, did a fantastic job

858
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:11,159
covering Nate Sheets, and Nate Sheets had a great and

859
00:44:11,199 --> 00:44:14,119
Sid Miller and Nate Sheets had a great ground game.

860
00:44:14,679 --> 00:44:18,639
Things that Kate. I'm reading Kate's tweets right now. Miller

861
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,519
was up for reelection a couple of times before, and

862
00:44:20,559 --> 00:44:23,039
the Texas Farm Bureau did not endorse him. This time.

863
00:44:23,199 --> 00:44:25,079
They did not endorse him again, but came out for

864
00:44:25,159 --> 00:44:27,760
Nate Sheets. A lot of Sid Miller's enemies came out

865
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,079
of the woodworks. He ran a good campaign, but I

866
00:44:30,119 --> 00:44:32,599
still say, if you're going into this runoff, you'd rather

867
00:44:32,639 --> 00:44:34,800
have Abbott on your team here in Texas than Trump,

868
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,960
because Trump will forget your name if you lose an St.

869
00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:39,400
Nine race. Yeah.

870
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 4: At that same Corpus Christi event, he mispronounced multiple congressional

871
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,480
candidates that he had endorsed.

872
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,199
Speaker 1: He mispronounced their names, which speaks to.

873
00:44:47,199 --> 00:44:50,280
Speaker 3: Your point, I mean, and to your point, right, you

874
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,800
can get the Abbot endorsement and then just stick Trump's

875
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,000
face on all your mailers and you know, sort of

876
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:56,039
get the same message out.

877
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,679
Speaker 5: I think the reason Abbot was so effective last year

878
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,719
was not really the power endorsement, although it does carry

879
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:05,440
some weight because he is in a Republican primary, fairly

880
00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:08,760
well liked, but it was he spent all this money,

881
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:14,320
specifically for these House candidates. You know, Mark the Hood

882
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,760
had Abbot face to camera talking about how he's better

883
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,000
on the border than Steve Allison in that race. That's

884
00:45:21,039 --> 00:45:24,079
why it was so effective. We didn't see that this time.

885
00:45:25,039 --> 00:45:27,800
You know, Abbot did do some ads for Kelly Hancock

886
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,199
and was taking him around the state. You know, he

887
00:45:31,199 --> 00:45:33,760
could argue whether huff Finds was just running away with

888
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,320
it or not. But it wasn't.

889
00:45:35,159 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 1: Hard to be right of hulf Finds on immigration.

890
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, it wasn't the same kind of brawling that Abbot

891
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:47,519
did in twenty four because Abbot was on the ballot

892
00:45:47,599 --> 00:45:50,519
himself and he's trying to his well. A big part

893
00:45:50,519 --> 00:45:53,800
of his strategy was running ads across the state, particularly

894
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,320
in the non metros, to boost turnout, because when you

895
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,280
get someone who turns out in the primary, they are

896
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,239
far more likely to be a general election voter. So

897
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,320
he had more things on his plate than just I'm

898
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,960
going to get this school choice bill and to hell

899
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:10,920
with all your Republicans who voted against it.

900
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,199
Speaker 3: This was a different cycle, which is interesting. I mean,

901
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,320
I think that there we've seen a lot of politicians

902
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,719
who have success flexing their muscles on one thing and

903
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,800
then say like, I'll just keep doing that and see

904
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,599
what I can sort of get done, and maybe over

905
00:46:22,679 --> 00:46:25,559
time sort of that power diminishes. So I think we're

906
00:46:25,559 --> 00:46:27,920
certainly seeing Abbott. I mean he has threatened to, or

907
00:46:28,159 --> 00:46:31,239
you promise, to use his massive war chest to turn

908
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,639
Harris County red, to turn the Valley red. I mean,

909
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:35,599
I think we're going to see a lot of involvement,

910
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,239
but it certainly maybe a little bit more judicious than

911
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:41,199
President Trump coming in and you endorsing.

912
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 5: He's going to spend a lot of money to turn

913
00:46:43,079 --> 00:46:44,119
both those places red.

914
00:46:44,159 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 3: I think, good thing, he has a lot of money

915
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,840
on his side. I mean the other piece of this

916
00:46:50,159 --> 00:46:53,000
is a weird night for incumbents. I mean we talked

917
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,719
about Sid Miller, who has been the Agriculture Commissioner since

918
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:00,000
twenty fifteen, has withstood a lot of scandals, a lot

919
00:47:00,039 --> 00:47:02,679
lot of baggage, a lot of just weird headlines about

920
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,599
him over the years. Was polling was showing him really

921
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,320
leading going into the election, and then you know, lost

922
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:14,199
pretty thoroughly to eight sheets Renzo. I mean, anything we

923
00:47:14,199 --> 00:47:15,360
can read in the tea leaves from that.

924
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 6: I think that as you said, Sid Miller has had

925
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:29,000
this comment. Yeah, but I think Sid Miller in particular

926
00:47:29,199 --> 00:47:35,000
also did not get along with Greg Abbott in particular,

927
00:47:36,159 --> 00:47:41,599
and just the Austin environment, and so.

928
00:47:42,159 --> 00:47:43,159
Speaker 3: It's a good euphemism.

929
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:48,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, but just say the swamp Prenzorenzo.

930
00:47:51,119 --> 00:47:55,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, No, I just think that in that particular race,

931
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:59,880
just all the money, all the support was there for

932
00:48:00,079 --> 00:48:03,440
or make sheets. Yeah, I feel like it's as simple

933
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:03,840
as that.

934
00:48:04,199 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, to borrow some language that we used in a

935
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,559
takeaways piece for The Tribune this morning, I mean the

936
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,440
Trump and I think what last night show is the

937
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:14,920
Trump endorsement remains powerful, but it does not absolve candidates

938
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:16,840
of all the unique issues, the issues that may be

939
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,519
unique to them, you know. I mean you still need to,

940
00:48:20,199 --> 00:48:23,760
you know, not have a massive personal scandal that you're

941
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,280
dealing with. If you're Tony Gonzalez, for example, you still

942
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,719
need you still need to have the campaign resources and

943
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,639
know how as we discussed, to deploy that endorsement in

944
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:34,719
an effective way in the case of similar perhaps and so,

945
00:48:35,159 --> 00:48:38,559
you know, the Trump endorsement just doesn't solve all your problems.

946
00:48:38,559 --> 00:48:40,639
You can't get that Trump endorsement and just rest on

947
00:48:40,679 --> 00:48:43,519
your laurels. You also have to be, you know, running

948
00:48:43,519 --> 00:48:46,840
a good campaign and not dealing with other baggage that

949
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:47,679
could counteract that.

950
00:48:48,679 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 5: I think she's just ran a fantastic campaign, kept the

951
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:57,159
pressure on the whole time. Miller expected a Trump endorsement

952
00:48:57,199 --> 00:48:59,320
to come in, and it did at the last minute,

953
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,199
but probably too little, too late at that point.

954
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,519
Speaker 1: And that's the other thing. That endorsement came so late

955
00:49:04,559 --> 00:49:06,400
Friday night early voting could closed. There.

956
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 5: I'm here and there's a pretty three hours later. Yeah,

957
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,199
but yeah, I mean it's it just did. It didn't

958
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,280
break through, and Miller didn't have the money to make

959
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:20,239
it break through. And if that had come, you know,

960
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,679
the Friday before early voting, like all the other Trump

961
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:27,079
endorsements did, then you might have something there. But he

962
00:49:27,119 --> 00:49:30,559
banked on rural Texas coming out and saving him like

963
00:49:30,599 --> 00:49:33,320
it had done before, not just saving him, but pushing

964
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,599
him way up. Sheets ran away with the suburbs. I

965
00:49:36,599 --> 00:49:39,280
think looking at the map, it's pretty clear, and I

966
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:43,519
think a lot of that's the slate cards. I keep

967
00:49:43,519 --> 00:49:47,280
harping on it. But it was a tremendously effective move

968
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,199
for him, and he also had the money to be

969
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,199
on TV. Miller didn't pretty basic.

970
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 3: I think yeah, the other I mean you mentioned Tony

971
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,480
Gonzalez and incumbent who is now facing a run off

972
00:49:58,559 --> 00:50:02,559
with Brandon Herrera. Just replay of twenty twenty four where

973
00:50:02,559 --> 00:50:05,400
he beat Herrera by four hundred votes. The difference obviously

974
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,480
being that Tony Gonzalez now has a very significant personal

975
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,840
scandal hangovers head allegations that he had an affair with

976
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,559
a staffer who later died by suicide. Patrick, I mean,

977
00:50:16,159 --> 00:50:19,360
how messy? How much messier is that race going to get?

978
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:20,079
In this runoff?

979
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:24,119
Speaker 4: Well, I want to see, first of all, if Gonzalez

980
00:50:24,159 --> 00:50:26,400
is actually going to stick around for the runoff. There

981
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:30,119
is a period after the primary where candidates who qualify

982
00:50:30,199 --> 00:50:32,400
for a runoff can choose to have their name remove

983
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,119
from the ballot, effectively handing the nomination to the other

984
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,519
runoff opponent. That happened in I believe it was twenty

985
00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:44,360
twenty two when Van Taylor also was rocked by allegations

986
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,639
of an affair in the days before his primary.

987
00:50:46,679 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: He got forced into a runoff.

988
00:50:48,519 --> 00:50:51,159
Speaker 4: He admitted to the affair, apologized to his constituents and

989
00:50:51,159 --> 00:50:54,119
said I'm withdrawing from the runoff and I'm not seeking reelection.

990
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 1: We'll see you know, if Gonzales does that.

991
00:50:58,519 --> 00:51:01,599
Speaker 4: Last night, he had a tweet that said onward to May,

992
00:51:01,679 --> 00:51:04,320
so it's clearly trying to signal that he's not going anywhere.

993
00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:06,960
Of course, I'm sure he's you know, there could be

994
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,320
a renewed push by House Republican leadership the White House

995
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,079
today to get him to drop out of that runoff.

996
00:51:11,079 --> 00:51:12,920
So I don't necessarily look at his tweet last night

997
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,159
and think that means he's actually one hundred percent going

998
00:51:15,199 --> 00:51:16,719
to be in this runoff. So that's the first question

999
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,760
I want to get answered, is Gonzales actually stick around

1000
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,559
for the runoff. If he does, he's he's definitely the underdog.

1001
00:51:22,599 --> 00:51:24,679
And I mean this is if you look at the numbers,

1002
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,880
you know, he you know, his support plummeted from early

1003
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:32,320
voting to election day results, which suggests to me that

1004
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:34,360
the toll of that scandal, which kind of broke out

1005
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,280
the beginning of the early voting period, really began to

1006
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,360
sink in as we got closer to primary day, and

1007
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:42,440
he ended up as as of before we came to

1008
00:51:42,519 --> 00:51:44,719
this taping, you know, he was actually the you know,

1009
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:46,960
in the second place spot behind Brandon her Era. So

1010
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:49,400
you know, he's got a really tough race ahead if

1011
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:50,239
he sticks it out.

1012
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:51,599
Speaker 1: Can I just jump in to say, as you were

1013
00:51:51,639 --> 00:51:54,519
speaking about whether Tony Gonzale should step step aside here,

1014
00:51:54,559 --> 00:51:58,039
I got an email from Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics

1015
00:51:58,079 --> 00:52:01,760
and Washington crew saying the headline Tony Gonzalez should resign.

1016
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,400
So there's gonna be a lot more growing pressure. But

1017
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,639
then what happens, because then you get Brandon Herrera and

1018
00:52:05,679 --> 00:52:10,760
then what does that matchup look like against a Democrat? Yeah,

1019
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:11,199
that's true.

1020
00:52:11,199 --> 00:52:13,760
Speaker 4: What I've something that I've heard from you know, Republicans

1021
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,559
in Washington is you know this this this time around,

1022
00:52:16,639 --> 00:52:18,840
in terms of the battle from the majority, they're they're

1023
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,880
more focused on the numbers rather than getting the right

1024
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,199
kind of Republican. And so I think that actually benefits

1025
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,679
Herrera here, that Republicans are just so desperate.

1026
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:28,800
Speaker 1: I'm saying for the voters of CD twenty three, sure

1027
00:52:29,519 --> 00:52:30,320
have an appetite for.

1028
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, But from the perspective in DC, maybe because of

1029
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,639
the environment this time around, you know, leadership is less

1030
00:52:37,679 --> 00:52:39,559
concerned about getting a Herrara in that seat as long

1031
00:52:39,559 --> 00:52:40,400
as it's a Republican.

1032
00:52:41,599 --> 00:52:45,679
Speaker 3: Briefly, Brad, we saw another incumbent just eliminate entirely in

1033
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,559
Representative Crenshaw losing to Steve Toath. What happened there.

1034
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:56,199
Speaker 5: There's a lot of national punditry talking about you know

1035
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,960
Crenshaw there. I know that he is finally getting knocked off.

1036
00:53:00,559 --> 00:53:03,039
I think this is just a very hyper local situation.

1037
00:53:03,519 --> 00:53:05,360
He pissed off a lot of people in the district

1038
00:53:05,559 --> 00:53:08,519
and couldn't overcome it. Part of that was his voting record.

1039
00:53:09,079 --> 00:53:15,960
But you know, the the when during redistricting there was

1040
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:19,599
an adjustment made I think because Toath got caught on

1041
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:24,719
camera saying some bad things about Trump, and they in

1042
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,239
one of the revisions that ended up the final one,

1043
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:31,480
they adjusted CD two a little bit and it was

1044
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,719
supposed to advantage Crenshaw and it didn't. I think his

1045
00:53:35,119 --> 00:53:38,599
candidacy had just run its course. And you know, Toath

1046
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:41,119
ran a good campaign, but he's also a state rep

1047
00:53:41,159 --> 00:53:45,400
there and he had a base of support. And also,

1048
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,519
this is Montgomery County, or largely Montgomery County we're talking about,

1049
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:52,679
which is you know Moco Loco, right, It's it's a

1050
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,440
crazy place. It's one of the most conservative counties in

1051
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,880
the state. And they do things like this and they

1052
00:53:59,239 --> 00:53:59,960
booted his butt out.

1053
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:03,119
Speaker 3: You can't run too far to the right in Montgomery County. Yeah,

1054
00:54:03,639 --> 00:54:07,719
I like ye, James briefly, and then I think we're

1055
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,880
going to go to audience questions. But you know, redistricting,

1056
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:12,840
we saw shake up a bunch of other things. We

1057
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,800
saw Julie Johnson, you know, into a runoff with Colin

1058
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:17,960
all Red. We saw Al Green and Christian Menafie head

1059
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,440
to head. We look ahead to the general where we're

1060
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:22,880
gonna be able to finally get the answer to was

1061
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:26,280
this mid decade redistricting a boon for Republicans or a

1062
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:30,599
dummy mander? Is the Democrats like to forecast? How does

1063
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:31,199
what is it?

1064
00:54:31,519 --> 00:54:31,679
Speaker 1: How?

1065
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:33,320
Speaker 3: What was the impact of these new maps and all

1066
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:34,960
that drama on the primary?

1067
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:37,199
Speaker 1: I mean the impact on the primary, of course, is

1068
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:40,239
the Democrat on Democrat battles. You're mentioning Christian Menafe versus

1069
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,119
Al Green, which is going to be a very interesting race,

1070
00:54:42,159 --> 00:54:44,639
but an incumbent there now, I guess two incumbents technically

1071
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,400
fighting it over, Julie Johnson now having to fight with

1072
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,440
Colin all Red. That's really kind of Colin Allredd's whole deal.

1073
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:52,440
He jumped into that race late when Julie Johnson ha

1074
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:54,599
said she was in it. But there's another incumbent in

1075
00:54:54,599 --> 00:54:57,199
trouble because I think Colin Allred was leading that one.

1076
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,760
And then here in Austin, Lloyd Doggett and Kasar having

1077
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,800
to sort of duke it out, Lloyd dogget having to

1078
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,280
sort of get pushed pushed out. But the Republicans, I'll say,

1079
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,039
whatever happens in November, right, Brad, whatever happens in November,

1080
00:55:09,159 --> 00:55:12,280
the Republicans have finally succeeded in pushing out Lloyd Doggett

1081
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:13,199
through redistricting.

1082
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,079
Speaker 3: So it was all for the Republicans, you know. That

1083
00:55:16,119 --> 00:55:17,519
was the long That was the one that we we

1084
00:55:17,559 --> 00:55:20,119
got to get dogged, the Long Con. Yeah. Yeah, Well,

1085
00:55:20,119 --> 00:55:22,119
I think we've got questions from the audience, if.

1086
00:55:22,039 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 1: You if you'll permit me here, if I can just

1087
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:26,599
jump in right here. You know, I used to co

1088
00:55:26,679 --> 00:55:29,280
host this podcast with on Our Clibenof, she's a good

1089
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:30,719
friend of mine. A couple of weeks ago we were

1090
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:32,679
sitting around and she said, you know what I would

1091
00:55:32,679 --> 00:55:35,880
really like for my birthday is to sit around with

1092
00:55:36,039 --> 00:55:40,960
four guys and just dissect the primaries and dissect the primaries.

1093
00:55:41,519 --> 00:55:44,039
So we've already fulfilled wish one. Then she then she

1094
00:55:44,079 --> 00:55:46,719
told me, I wish there was a crowd there. I

1095
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:48,639
wish there was a crowd there, and that they just

1096
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:51,320
gave me a round of applause for it being my birthday.

1097
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,199
You guys think we can make that happen. That's thank you,

1098
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:55,880
Happy birthday.

1099
00:55:56,159 --> 00:56:00,559
Speaker 3: I appreciate that. Honestly, thanks to the election, I've gotten

1100
00:56:00,599 --> 00:56:02,320
to be awake for almost all twenty four hours of

1101
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:03,800
my birthday, and that's exciting.

1102
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: So I also think I was standing next to Eleanor

1103
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:09,960
and James today when we acknowledged.

1104
00:56:09,599 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 3: We would not talk about the birthday, but here we are. Yes.

1105
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 2: So a few questions from the audience, and I know

1106
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,960
it was something that you had hoped to cover, but

1107
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:27,239
questions about what now in terms of Dallas and Williamson Counties,

1108
00:56:27,679 --> 00:56:32,440
what happened, both the what it means in terms of

1109
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,800
process and so forth, but also a number of voters

1110
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:41,159
who felt disenfranchised and what that means for campaigns needing

1111
00:56:41,199 --> 00:56:43,719
to remedy those relationships. But also just in terms of

1112
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,440
investigating what happened.

1113
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 3: James, can you give like the thirty second overview of

1114
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:49,480
what happened with Dallas and Williamson County.

1115
00:56:49,559 --> 00:56:52,280
Speaker 1: Yes. Basically, the Republican parties decided that they didn't want

1116
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,559
to do county wide voting, which those counties had moved

1117
00:56:54,599 --> 00:56:57,800
to something like ten or fifteen years ago, which reverted

1118
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,639
them back to doing precinct voting. Under Texas law, if

1119
00:57:00,639 --> 00:57:03,840
one party decides to go back to precinc voting, then

1120
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:06,400
the other party has to do so as well. I

1121
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:09,480
will say this one caveat, and that led to confusion

1122
00:57:09,519 --> 00:57:12,000
from voters who didn't realize that county wide voting had

1123
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:14,760
been eliminated for the primary, so they were showing up

1124
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,280
at the wrong precincts. That led to a lot of confusion,

1125
00:57:17,519 --> 00:57:21,039
a lot of voters being turned away, and obviously these

1126
00:57:21,119 --> 00:57:25,239
lawsuits ensued to extend polling hours. The Supreme Court of

1127
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:28,800
Texas got involved. I will say this caveat this question

1128
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:32,760
of disenfranchisement, I think is a bridge too far. Obviously

1129
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:36,039
it was a huge inconvenience for voters. But these counties

1130
00:57:36,079 --> 00:57:38,760
knew it, the parties knew it, the campaigns knew it,

1131
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:40,880
we all knew what the rules were. I think it's

1132
00:57:40,920 --> 00:57:43,719
a bridge too far to say that it was disenfranchisement

1133
00:57:44,039 --> 00:57:44,519
and I will.

1134
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 3: Say, I mean, like I think the Democratic Party was saying,

1135
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,840
like they've been warning the GOP about this potential impact

1136
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,159
since they made this change, but.

1137
00:57:50,079 --> 00:57:51,880
Speaker 1: That I was in the election spent a million dollars

1138
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:52,880
to educate people about it.

1139
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:54,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and also, you know you have an obligation to

1140
00:57:55,119 --> 00:57:56,800
you can rail against the GOP, you also have to

1141
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:58,639
educate your voters and make sure they're getting there, which

1142
00:57:58,679 --> 00:58:00,800
I think some of the campaigns made it stronger effort

1143
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,400
on than others. But I mean chaos at the polls

1144
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:06,639
in Dallas and Williason County. I think essentially it sounds

1145
00:58:06,639 --> 00:58:08,119
like Dallas County is saying, you know, if you were

1146
00:58:08,119 --> 00:58:12,480
in line at seven pm, your vote counts, and that's

1147
00:58:12,559 --> 00:58:14,440
where they're kind of leaving it. But we'll see what

1148
00:58:14,559 --> 00:58:15,440
unfolds from there.

1149
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 2: Sophia from Austin asks turnout in the Senate primary was historic,

1150
00:58:21,079 --> 00:58:23,639
but down ballot was still barely above one million, and

1151
00:58:23,679 --> 00:58:27,199
many other statewide contentious selections. Much of the country will

1152
00:58:27,199 --> 00:58:29,679
look at the headlines and think that voters are really motivated,

1153
00:58:29,719 --> 00:58:32,519
but they're hardly breaking double digits among registered voters.

1154
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,199
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts, Brad.

1155
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:36,079
Speaker 3: Do you want to take that. I mean, you're I

1156
00:58:36,159 --> 00:58:39,480
met sort of the down ballot, are we what's going

1157
00:58:39,519 --> 00:58:40,159
to be the impact?

1158
00:58:40,679 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 5: And clearly there was enthusiasm at the top of the ticket,

1159
00:58:43,079 --> 00:58:46,639
no question about it, both with contentious primary fight on

1160
00:58:46,679 --> 00:58:49,400
the Republican side and also for the first time in

1161
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,800
a while, a Democratic one as well. So clearly a

1162
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,239
lot of enthusiasm. But that enthusiasm drops off down ballot.

1163
00:58:58,159 --> 00:59:02,119
You know, I think people might be a bit harsh

1164
00:59:02,119 --> 00:59:06,519
to say voters are lazy, but you know, like it, see.

1165
00:59:06,599 --> 00:59:08,039
Speaker 3: Voters are busy with a lot on them, with a

1166
00:59:08,039 --> 00:59:08,599
lot on their mind.

1167
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:12,039
Speaker 5: Okay, But if you're already at the poll and you're

1168
00:59:12,079 --> 00:59:13,840
casting a ballot for tall Rico and you don't go

1169
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:14,920
down ballot.

1170
00:59:15,599 --> 00:59:17,559
Speaker 3: Right, well yeah right, I would assume they're thinking, I

1171
00:59:17,559 --> 00:59:19,039
don't know, I don't think they're like, it's so many.

1172
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 5: Times they didn't get down to the buck they did,

1173
00:59:21,199 --> 00:59:24,039
and I think that's just kind of baked into our

1174
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:28,079
society right now, Like it takes a lot. Think of

1175
00:59:28,119 --> 00:59:30,320
how much money these campaigns are spending just to get

1176
00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:33,360
people to go. I was in I was in Lubbock

1177
00:59:33,559 --> 00:59:35,880
last week and I'm sitting at a bar and I

1178
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:38,800
hear these two old dudes talking next to me, exactly

1179
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,280
the kind of demographic John Cornyn wants to turn out

1180
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:45,960
and help him get above Paxton. And they acknowledged that

1181
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:50,280
there was an election, uh this week. One of them

1182
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,480
asks are you gonna go vote? And he goes, hell,

1183
00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:55,239
I don't know, then goes oh, I might not either.

1184
00:59:56,320 --> 00:59:59,079
I mean, campaigns are spending a fortune to try and

1185
00:59:59,119 --> 01:00:01,519
get people exactly like that to the polls, and they're not.

1186
01:00:01,599 --> 01:00:05,719
They don't even know the Wednesday before the election if

1187
01:00:05,719 --> 01:00:09,320
they're even going to turn out. I'm glad I'm not

1188
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,800
a I'm glad I'm not a consultant running a campaign,

1189
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,400
although they're probably making pretty good killing on it.

1190
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:16,199
Speaker 3: But it's better than some I mean, the most one

1191
01:00:16,239 --> 01:00:18,000
of the most search terms that takes people to the

1192
01:00:18,039 --> 01:00:20,679
Texas Tribune website every single election day is when is

1193
01:00:20,719 --> 01:00:24,320
election Day? And like people, it's like a real voter

1194
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,280
education problem and civic education problem.

1195
01:00:27,719 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 5: I go back to my government class in high school

1196
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:32,519
where I was the only one awake the entire time,

1197
01:00:33,039 --> 01:00:33,639
and look at.

1198
01:00:33,559 --> 01:00:36,159
Speaker 3: You, now, I know right, yeah, Patrick was.

1199
01:00:36,199 --> 01:00:38,039
Speaker 4: Just say, if you're if you're a Democrat concerned about

1200
01:00:38,039 --> 01:00:40,920
turnout in Texas then you should be asking James tall Rico,

1201
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,199
what are you doing in the general election to build

1202
01:00:43,199 --> 01:00:46,800
a coordinated campaign that integrates with down ballot candidates and

1203
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,440
make sure that you guys all rise together and that

1204
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:51,440
you know that there's not as much of a drop

1205
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:54,599
off and turnout down ballot because that is in battleground

1206
01:00:54,599 --> 01:00:57,039
states and truly competitive states. You know, that is the

1207
01:00:57,039 --> 01:00:59,519
traditional role of the candidate at the top of the ticket.

1208
01:00:59,639 --> 01:01:04,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Just one one more question. Ashley from Austin asks,

1209
01:01:04,559 --> 01:01:07,039
based on assertions in the memo from Cornn's camp this

1210
01:01:07,119 --> 01:01:10,159
morning and conversations I've had with other staff, Paxton being

1211
01:01:10,199 --> 01:01:12,320
on the ticket will drag other ours down throughout the

1212
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:13,760
rest of the state has had a strong enough in

1213
01:01:14,159 --> 01:01:17,079
argument to get to the to get the Trump endorsement.

1214
01:01:17,119 --> 01:01:20,719
Will state GFP leaders quietly asked Trump to help Cornyan.

1215
01:01:21,519 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the big question, right, Is Paxton

1216
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,719
actually a drag on the ticket? I don't know, Patrick,

1217
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:28,480
Do you have thoughts well, I.

1218
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 4: Mean we saw polling during the general election. I'm sorry

1219
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:34,639
during the primary about this question, and honestly, you know,

1220
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:37,800
especially toward the end, I didn't find it particularly decisive

1221
01:01:38,159 --> 01:01:40,760
either way. I mean sure, there were polls that showed that,

1222
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,519
you know, John Cornyn would beat James Tallerico by a

1223
01:01:43,519 --> 01:01:46,639
wider margin than Ken Paxon, but to me, not by

1224
01:01:46,679 --> 01:01:49,280
that much of a wider margin. And so, you know,

1225
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,920
I think one of the more realistic and convincing arguments

1226
01:01:53,039 --> 01:01:54,960
is the one that I advanced earlier, which is like,

1227
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,800
you know, sure, maybe Ken Paxon can win this race

1228
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:01,239
if he's a nominee, but he would underperform potentially in

1229
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:03,480
a way where there is damage down ballot, and that

1230
01:02:03,559 --> 01:02:06,360
damage down ballot, as I point out earlier earlier, could

1231
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,440
be very significant to the future of the parties in Texas.

1232
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 1: Well.

1233
01:02:11,079 --> 01:02:14,199
Speaker 2: I think our politics reporters who I know are also

1234
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:18,960
finding important news during this event for joining us this morning.

1235
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,039
With that, I turned it over to Allan Ars close

1236
01:02:21,119 --> 01:02:21,400
us out.

1237
01:02:21,639 --> 01:02:23,639
Speaker 3: Fantastic, Well, thank you guys so much for joining us,

1238
01:02:23,639 --> 01:02:26,119
Thank you all for attending. The events like this are

1239
01:02:26,159 --> 01:02:29,239
made possible by the Texas Tribune members, so we encourage

1240
01:02:29,239 --> 01:02:31,679
you to go to our website become a member, support

1241
01:02:31,719 --> 01:02:36,559
our work, and thank you all for your wonderful insights today.

1242
01:02:36,639 --> 01:02:38,320
Thanks for coming, Thank you