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<v Speaker 1>It's that time a week for the day Deep Die

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<v Speaker 1>with Daniel Davis, retire Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis on the

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<v Speaker 1>program every Tuesday to talk about well sadly speaking of

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<v Speaker 1>late war and I see World War thres on the list,

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis. That does not comfort me any bit at all.

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<v Speaker 1>But let me wish you in an early happy Thanksgiving

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<v Speaker 1>and hope that you do enjoy your Thanksgiving. And I

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<v Speaker 1>fortunately get the rest of the week off, taking some

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<v Speaker 1>vacation time, so I don't suspect we'll end in a

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<v Speaker 1>happy note. Just got out the phone with Oliver Lane,

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<v Speaker 1>the London bureau chief for bright Bar, talking about of

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<v Speaker 1>course Ukraine. The fog of war came up. You know

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<v Speaker 1>they did the missiles hit, didn't they hit? Did they

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<v Speaker 1>do damage? They didn't do damage. One side's got a statement,

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<v Speaker 1>the other guy's got a statement. But I mentioned the

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<v Speaker 1>idea and my wonder, my wondering out loud over how

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<v Speaker 1>much longer Ukraine can even continue to fight, regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>the military hardware they are given and whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>we're operating it. But there's a finite amount of people

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine, and a lot of them are getting killed

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<v Speaker 1>on the front line, and Oliver pointed out, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when you see photographs in the front line battlefields, these

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<v Speaker 1>are old men. These are people in their forties or

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<v Speaker 1>fifties with you know, gray beards, And I mean, are

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<v Speaker 1>those the backup reserve troops? Are they going through the

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<v Speaker 1>old guys first before they get what's left to the

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<v Speaker 1>young people because nobody's having kids anymore. Where are we

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<v Speaker 1>on this? And are I mean, I mean, you get

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<v Speaker 1>where I'm coming from on this?

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<v Speaker 3>Unfortunately I do.

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<v Speaker 2>And listen, there's also a news out just this morning

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<v Speaker 2>that puts a little bit more facts on this issue here,

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<v Speaker 2>and that is that I think I may have mentioned

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<v Speaker 2>maybe last month or so, there was a piece out

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<v Speaker 2>in the New York Times that had a graph that

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<v Speaker 2>graphically depicted how much territory of the Ukraine has been

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<v Speaker 2>losing to Russia in the last six months, and there

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<v Speaker 2>was a dramatic uptick. And as of October I had said,

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<v Speaker 2>an old time record that was more than all of

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<v Speaker 2>the games that Rush had made in twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 2>which was pretty amazing since that initial invasion. And then now,

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<v Speaker 2>as expected, the numbers out for so far in November,

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<v Speaker 2>and you see we still got reporting.

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<v Speaker 3>More than a week to go of the data from

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<v Speaker 3>when it's again.

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<v Speaker 2>It's already exceeded what they had lost in October. The

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<v Speaker 2>last month, they have lost more square kilometers than any

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<v Speaker 2>single month of the war. I mean, it's just unbelievable

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<v Speaker 2>and of course commensurate with all of those territorial losses

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<v Speaker 2>or human losses, and they're continuing to be killed in

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<v Speaker 2>larger numbers. You're right outside of this issue with the

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<v Speaker 2>hypersonic missile and the irashnik is it's called in Russian.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very real issue that by itself, but even

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<v Speaker 2>off of that, by the headlines, off that on the ground,

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<v Speaker 2>the ground is just continuing to go in Russia's favor,

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<v Speaker 2>and no matter what anybody wants to say, if the

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<v Speaker 2>war is not brought to a negotiated end pretty quick,

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<v Speaker 2>then Russia will win militarily on the ground by force

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<v Speaker 2>what they want. And that is a stark, cold reminder

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<v Speaker 2>that most in the West just can't get their head

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<v Speaker 2>around because they've been told stories the whole time about

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<v Speaker 2>how Ukraine's winning, in Russia's losing, etc. Listen, I gotta

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<v Speaker 2>tell you, I was on Fox News a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>days ago, and the anchor actually said he must have

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<v Speaker 2>believed this.

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<v Speaker 3>But people are saying that.

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<v Speaker 2>Russia is worn out and they're about to collapse at

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<v Speaker 2>any moment. I can't believe people are still saying that

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<v Speaker 2>in the third year of the war. But that's where

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<v Speaker 2>we are right now, very different than reality on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>So absent and infusion of troops, which I imagine would

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<v Speaker 1>come from NATO countries, they would have to enter into

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<v Speaker 1>this conflict, turning it probably in the into a global conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians can't rely on the North Koreans, the sent a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of people have to fight the war on their

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<v Speaker 1>side of the of the field. So this is just

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<v Speaker 1>a puftally going to slowly go in that direction. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that Vladimir Putin with the new election with

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump taking over, might take us a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more of a wait and see approach because he has

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<v Speaker 1>heard Donald Trump say it. You've heard Donald Trump say it.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how he plans on accomplishing it, but

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<v Speaker 1>laying hands on this situation and resolving this conflict right away,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously that is going to require, at least in my mind,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to rely on your learned opinion over mine.

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<v Speaker 1>If it's wrong, it's going to require Ukraine to give

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<v Speaker 1>up some land in order to resolve the conflict. They're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have to give back what they did in invading Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>but also make major concessions on Ukrainian land. In any resolution,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't involve well just losing completely.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the first point, No, Putin is not taking away

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<v Speaker 2>and see attitude he has is put on the accelerator

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<v Speaker 2>and he is pressing harder and faster, and they are

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<v Speaker 2>taking more and more territory. He is going to do

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<v Speaker 2>everything he can to put on the table before January

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<v Speaker 2>twentieth conditions for Trump to come and negotiate.

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<v Speaker 3>This says, I've got all the big cards here. I

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<v Speaker 3>want to negotiate. He's already said.

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<v Speaker 2>But Putin has willingly I will definitely talk to him,

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<v Speaker 2>would be happy to do so. He's never said anything

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<v Speaker 2>different all throughout the war. We've had many chances to

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<v Speaker 2>have this stopped with negotiations.

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<v Speaker 3>We're unwilling to do so. Now Putin is going.

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<v Speaker 2>To show both strategically with that orationik that was just fired,

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<v Speaker 2>and tactically on the ground, I have all the cards

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<v Speaker 2>and if you want to have a negotiated settlement, it

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<v Speaker 2>will definitely require the succeeding of a large amount of territory,

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<v Speaker 2>and then Russia had already has and probably more than

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<v Speaker 2>the current line of contact in negotiation. If Trump doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>agree to that, he'll just keep his foot on the

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<v Speaker 2>accelerator and keep going.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the hard part about this.

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<v Speaker 2>I kind of had hoped that by the time Trump

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<v Speaker 2>came in, if he had won, that he would be

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<v Speaker 2>in a position to maybe freeze, to call along the

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<v Speaker 2>current line of contact. But now then that's off the

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<v Speaker 2>time table in my view, because Putin has the ability

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<v Speaker 2>to say, no, I'm not willing to take any deal

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<v Speaker 2>short of the territory that I think we need for

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<v Speaker 2>our security. And so I think that we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>be in a tough situation. And by the way, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know if you've seen, but there's been some really

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<v Speaker 2>conflicting signals.

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<v Speaker 3>Coming out of the Trump camp. Coming out you had won.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike Waltz on Fox News, you know, recognized kind of

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<v Speaker 2>what you said that there's you know, there's potential for

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<v Speaker 2>conflict all over the place. We could be into a

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<v Speaker 2>global conflict really fast if things don't get taken care of,

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<v Speaker 2>so they want to have a negotiated settlement. Then you

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<v Speaker 2>had Gorka Sebastian Gorka go on separately and say that

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<v Speaker 2>Putin's gonna come or Trump's going to come in and

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<v Speaker 2>demand that Putin to give him exactly what he wants,

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<v Speaker 2>or if you think we've given a lot of stuff

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine so far as peanuts compared to what we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to do, which is not a good signal, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>a contradictory signal. So it's unclear exactly what Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>going to do when he takes office.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the contradictory signal seems, you know, maybe low from

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<v Speaker 1>some level to keep them confused, because that way we're

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<v Speaker 1>not hardline in any one direction or another. But I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I find the idea of continuing to throw hardware at

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<v Speaker 1>this to just be a wasted proposition, given there's got

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<v Speaker 1>to be people behind the guns to use them and

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<v Speaker 1>shoot them and defend the territory, and that's not happening

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<v Speaker 1>right now, as you point out. So I know that

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<v Speaker 1>there are areas of Ukraine who are pro Russia. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that was the situation with Crimea. Correctly, they weren't necessarily. Ah,

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<v Speaker 1>so what is Russia. Let's look down the road. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>worst case scenario, Russia takes over and takes over the

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<v Speaker 1>entire territory. What are they biting off in that regard?

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<v Speaker 1>Because I think of, you know, the anti Russian people

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<v Speaker 1>who would still be there, the pro Ukrainian the patriotic Ukrainians,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, fighting a guerrilla war or constantly like you know,

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<v Speaker 1>mosquitoes going after the larger Kremlin occupiers. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>see that playing out over the long term. Yeah, it

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<v Speaker 1>certainly could.

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<v Speaker 2>And if you may recall, even before February twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 2>when all the Russian forces were massed around there, there's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of talk in the West that Ukraine couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>fight a conventional war against Russia and win, so they

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<v Speaker 2>were already planning even then for a guerrilla world war.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean feel like that from the outset.

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<v Speaker 2>Then all of a sudden, Ukraine did a lot better

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<v Speaker 2>in the first year than anyone thought, and that kind

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<v Speaker 2>of tabled that. But I would imagine that there's so

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<v Speaker 2>much hatred for Russia in the West that, just like

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<v Speaker 2>we did in Afghanistan when the Soviets invaded in the

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<v Speaker 2>eighties that we would probably still support, you know, a

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<v Speaker 2>clandestine operation just to keep Russia, keep people nipping at

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<v Speaker 2>their ankles, et cetera. But I think that Putin is

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<v Speaker 2>aware of a lot of this, and so I doubt

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<v Speaker 2>very seriously he's just going to go and conquer all

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<v Speaker 2>the country, because that would be botting off a huge,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, hard headache for him long term, because especially

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<v Speaker 2>in the western half of the country, there is intense

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<v Speaker 2>hatred for Russia, and he has no interest in any

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<v Speaker 2>of that. So I think that he would limit himself

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<v Speaker 2>territorially to the other part, to the western part, as

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<v Speaker 2>long as that what's left in the east, I'm sorry,

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<v Speaker 2>what's left in the western part of the country is

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<v Speaker 2>non aligned and not going to be in NATO. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that he'll be okay with that. We'll see how

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<v Speaker 2>it works out. But that's what he says from the beginning.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's probably true.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and that speaks volumes to negating the whole idea

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, his designs are on all of the

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<v Speaker 1>eastern NATO countries. I mean, that's that's just not possible.

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<v Speaker 2>That's always been a canard by the war supporters to

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<v Speaker 2>try and fear cause fear in people to say, oh

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<v Speaker 2>my god, it's Hitler again.

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<v Speaker 3>It's never been that way.

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<v Speaker 2>He still doesn't have the capacity to roll in and

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<v Speaker 2>take conquer and territory.

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<v Speaker 3>He doesn't have it, He has no interest in it.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis Deep Die find him online podcast Deep Die

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<v Speaker 1>with Daniel Davis. Daniel, I always enjoy our conversations. I

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to next Tuesday in another one. Keep up

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<v Speaker 1>the great work and.

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<v Speaker 3>Always my pleasure. And have a good thanksgiving any.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks I'm giving to you and your as well. Take

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<v Speaker 1>care of my friend. It's eight forty year, but five

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<v Speaker 1>cars to the detalk station. Time for me to mention

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<v Speaker 1>because I want to, and you're gonna be happy that

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<v Speaker 1>I did covers since he