Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total bases.
It is opening day officially. Even though we had one
baseball game last night, today is really opening day for
most of the league.
Speaker 2: Eleven games.
Speaker 1: There's six teams that have to wait until tomorrow to
play their first game.
Speaker 2: But we're ready to get into it.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking Paul Skeins, the Pirates, and the Mets,
kicking it off on NBC at one PM. The Dodgers
also try to embark on a three peat, something that
hasn't been done since last last century. At this point
the late nineties, the Yankees the last team to win
three straight World Series. I got Tokyo Brandon, I got
Brian Leonard with me. We've also got a great special
on the website. It is the double play, the pick two.
I don't know, I feel like I'm at Panera Bryan Leonard.
You know, you get to pick a super a sandwich.
You get to pick two of the handicap. So it's
either myself, Tokyo Brandon, me and Brian Leonard, TB and
Brian whoever fits your you know sort of you know
thing the best. You get two of us three days.
All of the plays and of course we still have
the other specials right now. I think it's three and three,
so that's all access for any handicapper. It's like buy
three days, get six free. Those are up at the
website right now. Brian Leonard, I'm coming to you first.
I know you're just as jacked up as me. It's
six am. You're ready to go. How you doing today?
And also kick us off, Paul Skeen's headed to the
Big Apple the first game of the opening day eleven games.
Slate today, Pirates Mets.
Speaker 3: Good game to talk about, not only because I'm excited
about both of these two teams, but they're pretty good
teams this year. A lot of people think the Pirates
are going to be a contender in the division this year,
and it may be about a year early, but still
they've really improved. Their team still don't have enough power
if you ask me, and they do play more of
a pitcher's ballpark, but they're going against Skins is going
against Freddy Peralta here, and Freddy Parolta is not playing
for the Brewers in this game, as he's a free
agent and the Mets signed him. And that's actually maybe
a little bit better for him on the season, is
I really like Benny Unders in this stadium. We've got
two pitchers right here in Skins and per Altar that
could clearly do that. The problem I'm having is if
you take a look at Freddy Parolter, he has not
pitched in the last twelve days. Everybody else on the
schedule today has gone the last five days or so.
So he's a guy that comes into this game. I
believe he's only been pushed up to like forty three pitches,
So if he's in there, he's may not be in
there very long. I don't think they're going to throw
him for the complete five innings, So keep that in
mind if you're looking to play props. Also, I usually
don't like to play early on in the season on
guys who were big, big free agents, big guys moving
moving teams playing early, which is why I'm going to
fade a lot of hitters that are switching switching teams,
and I'm going to fade the pitchers. So we've got
a guy in this situation for Peralta, where normally he
had great season last year. I don't think he's that good,
but he's a guy who changes teams and is pitching
opening day, a lot of pressure on him, and he
also has not been built up. So I think the
value right here, it's we're looking at Peralta and the
Mets roughly about a one, anywhere from a one to
fifteen to one twenty five favorite out there. I like
Pittsburgh in this game, and yes the Mets, the Mets
are the much better team than what the Pirates are,
but in this individual game, and every game is different,
every day is different. That's why we love baseball. I'm
going to use the Pirates in one.
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Tokyo Brandon. Great call in the Yankees
last night. That was simple, nice easy win right there. Obviously,
you know, I feel like you've, you know, been willing
to take shots with Paul Skeens, you know almost I
guess at prices that you know, I think you've been
pretty bullish on taking him in, you know, even when
he's a little bit inflated. You know, I look at
this and I'm kind of with Brian. I feel like
you're getting a bargain on Scheens here, all things considered, TV,
talk to me about the Pirates Skiens and also that
layoff for Peralta as opposed to some of the other
guys that have gotten a pitch. More recently, there's a
one of the chat questions here talks about guys coming
off a World Baseball Classic.
Speaker 2: How are you approaching that as well?
Speaker 4: So regarding the World Baseball Classic, I think who pitched
in pressure situations in the World Baseball Class it could
be candidates for a slight temporary regression, just because you know,
it's really hard for athletes to get jacked up and
then back down and then jacked up again, even in
the same game. It's hard for them to do it's
hard for them to do it in the same week
or the same month as well. But talent is talent,
and talent's going to come through. I think, like for
someone like I don't know, I can't think someone who
pitched for Team Canada or someone who pitched for Nicaragua,
maybe I won't see much regression or temporary regression for
them because they didn't really have any pressure situations and
they didn't pitch in the WBC for two weeks now.
But the teams that were in the Championship, the teams
that were in the semi finals, yeah, you could see
a little regression regarding this game. Yeah, Peralta's been off.
I'm sure he's been doing simulated starts and and and
things like that. And that's how these guys keep their rhythm,
because these guys really are creatures of habit. But you know,
the season is just starting, and uh, I don't you know,
there's not there's not a lot that you're gonna knock
them off the rhythm too much at the very beginning
of the season. So, uh, I agree with Brian's assessment
of Peralta. He's not I don't think he's an ace ace.
Uh He's not like an elite guy. He's all right.
His recent history against the Pirates though he's got a
three nine one ERA in three five appearances, he's two
and one in the last two years against them, where
Skeins has a two O eight d r A against
the Mets in the last two years with fourteen strikeouts
and two starts. So the way I'm going to look
at this, I think I think I agree with Brian
also that the Pirates are not a terrible team. They're
they're there. They might not be a playoff team, but
they're they're not bad. I mean, on any given day, yeah,
the Mets should knock them around, but when it's a
Skien's day, that's something different. So the Pirates definitely have
the pitching advantage here. But actually I think the bullpens
are fairly equal. But you know, you guys know how
I cap. I like current form, and there's no current
form on opening days, so I'm gonna go with Paul Skins.
You know his outs props. His outs prop was fifteen
and a half. I thought that was really low because
he's pitched six innings and seven innings against this team
in the last two years. I know it's opening day,
but I went with Max fred Over fifteen and a
half outs yesterday and won it. I don't think managers
are that, you know, hooky to take a guy out
so soon if it's Skeens. And actually, I've read a
lot of reports that the Pirates are gonna let Skeens
go a lot a lot more innings this season than
they did last season, So we'll see how that shakes out.
I've just been reading some things. You never really know
until the game's actually played, But I like Skins over
fifteen and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think they're going to be in a
rush to take Schens out. I mean I make I
actually make the Pirates minus one twelve a slight favorite here,
going back just just last year to this year, I
think this Pirates team is a lot better than the
team that they put on the field last year. So
I don't think you're gonna have that sort of dynamic
that you did last year where it's like, okay, well
you have it's schemes, but it's this awful team. I
don't think the Pirates are a playoff team per se,
but they're closer to that than they were last year
by a lot I think. I mean, I think they
could win. I think they could flirt with five hundred.
I don't think it's crazy to think the Pirates could
win half of their games. So again, I think for
right now, like Ski like, you're getting Schiens in the
in the plus one oh five plus you know, even
money range, I think that's pretty solid. And then for
as far as Preddie Freddie Peralti is concerned, he's not
going past the fifth inning anyway. I mean, even when
he's even when he's like in form, he's really a
five inning guy. So all the Mets are are you know,
one of the better teams in the National League. I
still think you're gonna be asking like five different Mets
pitchers to come out and pitch. Well today, you're probably
gonna have maybe maybe three or four relievers and then
and then Peralta.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think I trust the Pirates kind of the way
they set up a little bit more so I'm on
the Pirates as well. Uh that is uh, you know,
that's that's something that I actually made bet and well,
and we'll see if I give it out in the
Best Bets segment, which will be at the end of
the show where we will lock in our parley. So
this year where we're gonna wait till the end to
lock our parlay and we'll we'll sort of go through
the games and uh, I'm gonna go back. Let's get
Brian Leonard back in here. Let's talk Dodgers Diamondbacks. Brian,
the Dodgers. No one's disputing the fact that they are
projected to they are the best team in baseball until
someone says otherwise. They're projected with with the highest win
total by far. But boy do they look inflated for
a game where they're gonna be getting their rings and
they might just be like partying today. I don't love
the Diamondbacks, but wow, that is a big number. Go ahead, Dodgers, Diamondbacks,
and are you fading? The ring ceremony is the question?
Speaker 3: You know, that's funny. I've always used the ring ceremony
in other sports and had a lot of success. Baseball
is more of a laid back game as opposed to
football and basketball, so I don't know if it means
as much. Especially the Dodgers have been so good for
so long. It's not like they jumped out of it.
Jumped out of the lower tier and won the World
Series last year. So we'll have to see how that
works out. But it's always something you have to keep
in mind. The problem here is everybody knows the Dodgers
are the best team, and Arizona's number one starter. Well,
it's a guy that nobody else wanted, Zach Gallon. They
thought he was gonna he thought he was gonna go
somewhere else and make the money. Nobody my knowledge made
any serious offers, and now he's back in Arizona again
because they have a lack of that's the worst part
of this team. Is the pitching. Arizona's offense is very good,
it's one of the best in the league, but the
pitching staff is the problem. The Dodgers, obviously, the pitching
staff is not the problem. They've got a great bullpen,
whereas Arizona right now doesn't even really know for sure
who are their closure is going to be so and
they've got a couple of guys that missed half going
to miss half the season. In the bullpen, key members,
probably the best members. So I am worried about Arizona
in the second half of the game. Gallon really hasn't
been Both these pitchers last pitched six days ago, so
they both in the same group. Gall It's looked okay
in preseason, not great, not you know, he's had some
good and bad, but he knows this team very well
in the Dodgers. He's been in this division for a
long time, so I would expect maybe we get a
little bit better effort out of him here against the Dodgers.
Yamamoto a guy who is when he's pitching, he's one
of the best in baseball. The problem is with a
six rotation and they're gonna piggyback. We got a couple
of guys at piggybacking for the season. Ammamotos stats. It's
going to be a little bit slower on innings, so
he's not going to get he may not get the
cy Young votes. He would be well and he's on
the mound. He's a guy you want to back. The
problem is we're looking you right now and they're anywhere
from like two fifty to two seventy five favorite. I'm
not going to lay that early in the season, So
I need to find a different way to look at
this game. Maybe play some props something of that effect
if I'm gonna play this one. But right now, I
can't lay the number, and I really don't want to Arizona
in this one.
Speaker 2: So Tokyo Brandon, I am my.
Speaker 1: One of my biggest sort of number edges here of
the days is the Diamondbacks. I think, you know, and
I don't think that's crazy because the Dodgers are going
to be inflated probably on a day to day basis,
But man, I don't think this Diamondbacks team is very
good this year. I guess it's I guess that's why
you know, plus one and a half plus money is
sitting right out there for me plus one oh five
with the visiting team. So if I like the Diamondbacks
at all, that's certainly the way I would go. But
I just can't seem to get myself there. I think
it's because of the bullpen, because of the injuries. What
do you think, Dodgers, Dbacks? Is there any path here
for Arizona to get on that side?
Speaker 4: So starting pitching, we've got a cy young candidate versus
a guy who you probably never mentioned the word cy
young with his name ever in your life. Zach Collin
is not a terrible pitcher, but he's a he's he's
he's just a you know, a reliable hu hum kind
of guy who'll get you five innings and give up
three runs. So that's why no one wanted to take him.
But Yamamono was electric, and last year the bullpen was
the Achilles Hill for both of these teams in my opinion, Yeah,
the Diamondbacks did have some talent, but they didn't perform
up to it. The Dodgers acquired Scott and they acquired
a couple other guys and they didn't pan out. But
this year they've improved their bullpen even further and in
the offseason. I don't think the Diamondbacks got better. Matter
of fact, I think they got worse. If there's any
if there's a side bet here, I think the Dodgers
would be the only way to go. Might have to
lay the one and a half even at home, which
is in our business is sometimes a no no. But
there's also the ring ceremony thing that you guys brought up.
That is a thing. I mean, I'm not a superstitious guy,
and I'm not one of those they want it more
or they're trying harder kind of thing. I think at
this level everyone's trying for their contract, so I'm not
a believer in that kind of stuff. But the ring
thing is a thing. It actually is a detriment to winning.
But I think this team's just too good. I don't
think it'll be a factor today. In this case. I
generally like to take a minus one. If it's minus
one eighty minus one seventy, I'll take a minus one.
But this is beyond that. A minus one will only
get you a minus two hundred in the odds, so
I don't think a minus one is worth it either.
You'd have to take the one and a half or,
like Brian said, look for a prop That's the only
way I would be able to approach this one. I'm
not touching the diamond back to the ten football in
this game.
Speaker 1: All Right, we are going to move on this next segment.
We're gonna go a little bit quicker. We're going to
go entirely off of what you guys are looking at
in the chat. So I'm gonna go to Brian Leonard
on Jack's question here just because I think he's definitely
got a strong opinion on one of these teams. So basically,
isn't too early to fade the Terrible Cardinals? Feels like
this game in June would be Tampa Bay minus one
forty or more. And Brian, is that I've here, I've
heard a lot of the Terrible Cardinals. I mean, are
they much worse than the Rays? Talk to me about
raised Cardinals a little bit.
Speaker 3: The Rays are a little strange to me this year
because there's people I respect that love the Rays. They
love what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm gonna
buy They got ras Messon on them out today against
Librator and rass. Messon is about a one fifteen one
five favorite you're looking at a Tampa Bay team who
I just don't think they're They're a team that likes
to mix a match, a lot of you know, lucky
righty kind of stuff. Love the management at Tampa Bay.
They've got one of the best managers in baseball. But
and they've got a third basement, by the way, that
everybody's so crazy about. But they are moving back from
a hitting standpoint. They are moving back from a minor
league park that was a good hit part, and now
they're going back into their home park, which is a
good pitching part. This game's obviously on the road to
Saint Louis, but that's well moving those hitters. Yeah, they
played very well outside of outside of this Tampa Bay stadium,
but when you get back to Tampa Bay, you don't
hit aus well. That's going to be a concern when
they go back home. That's not the concern today Librator. Yet,
normally some of these pictures for Saint Louis, they're young
pitchers that haven't performed well in the past. Librator had
a great preseason and that's why he's the He's the
starting off this first game here. He's a left hander
against Tampa Bay playing at home. This is more of
a pictures park in Saint Louis. I like that. We
talked about this yesterday. I like Saint Louis's team this
year better than most guys do. But I love Drew
Rasmus and he's probably my best, my favorite pitcher in
this Tampa Bay lineup. You take a look at him
over the years. I don't know if he's ever had
a three e er. The guy's amazing. If he played
one hundred percent of the time, never got hurt, we'd
be talking about him like we do snow. I mean,
he's that good that That's the only thing that I'm
with coctarned with here. If I play anything in this game,
I may look at the under. We're looking at h
to the a couple of eighths to the under, but
seven and a half's at even money to the under.
That would be the way I go in this one.
I don't think either offense is that great right now.
As the season goes on, with say Louis brings up
some of those rookies that are really good, I think
their offense will be a lot better. But right now
I would play this game.
Speaker 1: Underd yeah, I mean my number here, so just to
go back to the original question, minus one forty in
a couple months, I mean, I make this minus one
fifteen rays. So it's like I actually show a little
bit of value to the Cardinals. I think for me,
if I wanted the raise here, I would just be
betting on Rasmussen. If you take him out of the equation,
I would I all of my sort of numbers the
way I'm looking at both of these teams this year
would actually have me on the Cardinals side. But yeah,
Rasterson is not a guy that I really want to
bet against at this point. But I still actually show
a little bit of value to the to the Cardinals.
If I showed more, I'd be willing to take a chance.
But these opening opening day lines are a little bit
tighter than probably you'll see all season.
Speaker 2: These next two days. I mean, you're gonna be really.
Speaker 1: You're probably gonna have to go very contrarian to find
any real value on sides the next couple of days,
because of course it's opening day. The line's been up
for a couple of days. There's only eleven games. Everyone's
got their ace on the mound. But Tokyo Brandon. I'm
gonna go to Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 2: In the chat, he.
Speaker 1: Said it's never too early to fade trash. So I'll
ask you two questions. One, I don't exactly know what
you were referring to by that, But two, I think
the I think when I think trash this year, TV,
I think the Washington Nationals.
Speaker 2: I think the Washington Nationals are gonna be the worst.
Speaker 1: Team maybe in Major League Baseball this year.
Speaker 2: They're certainly gonna be down there.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: So, do you have any interest in fading them out
Wrigley Field this afternoon?
Speaker 4: Absolutely? Uh And when I said it's never too early
to fade rush, someone in the comments said, is it
is it too early to fade the Cardinals? So I
was calling the Cardinals trash? I know you guys are
not are not? Are not as frowning upon the Cardinals
as I am. But I think they just lost. I didn't.
I don't think they improved themselves in the off seat.
I think they're gonna have a worse season than last season.
But that's what I was referring to. But regarding the Nationals, No,
I absolutely don't think it's too early to fade the
Nationals if you look at the pitching matchup, if you
look at the lineups, if you look at the bullpens.
I mean, the bullpen is a huge liability for the Nationals.
I think their starter today is a young guy who
has potential, but it's a matter of when the potential
is gonna kick in and he's gonna start actually looking
good because he's got talent, but he hasn't performed to
that talent. Boyd is you know, kind of a proven commodity.
You know what you're gonna get. It's not a shiny Ferrari,
but it is a drivable car and it'll get you
where you're going. On the other side, you don't know
if you're gonna get where you're going. So add that
together with the proven lineup against the non proven lineup.
I really like Abrams though. I love watching Abrams play.
He's he's so talented. He's a really fun guy to watch.
But that's really the only reason I would watch the
Nationals game.
Speaker 3: Rotation the.
Speaker 4: Bullpen. Man. The biggest liability for them is their bullpen.
I just think the car the Cubs are gonna trounce
them today.
Speaker 1: Well, this isn't trying. I'm gonna keep I'm gonna stay
on this game. We'll go to Brian. If you want
to add anything on today's game, feel free to go
ahead for me. Kavali, he's fine, but like there's no
bullpen arms, there's zero bullpen depth.
Speaker 2: I don't know how much the depth matters on Open Day,
but this was.
Speaker 1: One Brian where my sort of number was not showing
as much value despite it them being one of the
bigger underdogs of the day. And talk to me about
that's an interesting bet. Plus seven fifty for fewest wins.
I think the Rockies are going to be better than
people think. I don't hate that one bit. I think
you could throw some a flyer on plus seven fifty
for fewest wins is I'm interested in that.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about the Nats and the Cubs.
Speaker 3: Well, I do like Cavali. He's a guy that had
to deal with some injuries over the years. And if
there's anybody I'm looking to back out of this Washington
starting rotation, it would be Cavali. You talked about the bullpen.
The bullpen is lousy. Boyd. I was a big fan
of Boyd last year got off to a great start,
did not pitch well in the second half of the season.
He was pitching over his head early on. I still
like him, but I don't know if I want to
lay this big number with the Cubs. Here. What I
gave my clients, What I'm doing for my clients this year,
the ones that signed up for the season, I'm giving
them small one percent plays overnight, looking to take advantage
of good numbers, and I gave them the under in
this game. We are looking at roughly about a seven
and a half right now. There's still some sevens out there,
which means and any time you're looking in Chicago for
the Cubs, paying attention to what the total is, if
the wind's blowing out, you could see fourteens. If the
wind's blowing in, you could see five and a half.
So two aces are my own, so the win is
probably blowing in here. It's something where teams have come
from warmer clients in the spring, and now we're going
to play in coulder clients.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: I haven't seen the weather yet today. I'm six am
my time. I'm giving out my plays later on in
the season or later on in the day for my
clients this year. Once I figure out everything else, but
I gave an early player on the under. I thought
the under was a nice play here. I like Cavali.
I'll think you'll go the full five innings, Boyd. Being
a lefty, I think it's gonna have some success here
against Washington. DO like Chicago bullpen much better than Washington.
But if I can get under seven and a half
here in a decent number, yeah, I like.
Speaker 2: The under in this one, all right.
Speaker 1: I want to bring Tokyo Brandon back in, but I'm
gonna say a few words about this game first, because
I have some opinions on these two teams and I'm
interested in something here. So we'll see if TV can
either confirm what I'm gonna say or talk me off. Now,
ghost Win Sports says Angels might lose one hundred games.
I don't really disagree with that. I'm not high on
the Angels one bit, but I think the Astros might
be the biggest sort of dip of any team in baseball.
Speaker 2: I think this team, I don't think they're five hundred team.
Speaker 1: So if you talk about where they're priced relative to
where I think they end up, I am in major
Astros fade mode. This year, they have banged a bullpen.
Their best play I mean, obviously their best players. Jordon Avarez,
Kenny stay healthy.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: But like I mean, jose Al Tuve, what is he like?
Thirty six, thirty seven at this point? You know, last
year I got this shoved right in my face. Boys,
I was on here talking about this Astros team being
no good, and they just found way after what. They
just kept finding ways to win. They kept plugging guys
in miracle year for them. In my opinion, last year,
I think I'm gonna be what I was saying last year.
I think comes to fruition this year. So I'm looking
for ways to fade the Astros. Ken Man Angels plus
one and a half's tempting, but it's a little bit
juiced right now. If this would have come down fifteen twenties,
you know, give me this in the minus one ten,
minus one fifteen range here, I'd be all over it.
TV talk talk to me, Angels, Astras. Am I crazy
to think the Angels start one to oh today?
Speaker 4: Uh No, Actually, I fully agree with your sentiment there
that the Astros are regressing a little bit. I fully
agree with that, and that's going to play into What
I'm gonna use as my best bet on the show
is going to be this game. So I'll just put
it out there right now while I analyze this game.
The Astros lineup really wasn't anything to be that afraid
of last year, and the Angels lineup certainly wasn't anything
to be afraid of last year, especially after losing Mike Trout,
which they do every season. So I don't I don't
like really either lineup here. The bullpens, I don't really
like the bullpens either, but it's Opening day. Bullpens are fresh.
You can use your best arms to grind out a
win on Opening Day without worrying about how many innings
he pitched in the last three days. And then starting pitcher,
I mean, Hunter Brown is. I made a free play
video today on wager Talk, and I broke this down.
Hunter Brown is on the precipice of being elite. I
don't think he's in the group of elite, but he's
on the precipice of it. He's almost there. He's a
really good pitcher. Jose Soriano, he is my chronic walker.
He walks a lot of people. He doesn't have control
of his stuff, but he performs really well against this
Astros team, and back to your point about the Astros
regressing and not being afraid of them, I think he
can actually hold them down today. I really like an
under in this game. I think it was eight. My
numbers say this is going to be around six or
six point two, way under eight, so I don't think
either team's really going to score that much. It takes
testicular fortitude, Brian, take an under on a Nats game,
and I'm gonna use the same testicular fortitude to take
an under on an Angels game, because the Angel's bullpen
is almost as bad as the Nationals and their rotation
is horrible too. But I think Soriano performed well against
the Astros last year. I think he can carry that
in on Opening Day. I like the under in this game.
That's gonna be my leg of the parlay for this show.
Speaker 1: All right, TV, We'll come back to you in a
minute before I get Brian's best bet. We've got about
like ninety seconds before I'm going to go to you
for a best bet, So, Brian, why don't you jump
in on Astros Angels and you give your thoughts here.
Speaker 3: Well, I talked yesterday, I thought the Angels would have
the worst record in baseball. I found a number seventeen
to one. You can bet the Angels get seventeen times
your money by playing them as the worst record in baseball.
I talked about it yesterday. Don't have time today, so
I'll go back and watch yesterday's show if you want
to find that out. I also like the Angels here.
I am looking to fade Houston. Houston, know I this
is this is baseball, and it's a long season. The
team I just predicted we have at least amount of wins.
I'm looking to bet on today, and that's the Angels.
Because of the starting pitchers here. Soriano des walk a
lot of people. That's because he gives up home runs
and he doesn't want to throw the ball down the middle.
It's worked out well for him. He's been their ace
for a few years now. I like that situation. The
problem is in this one is I don't like the
Angels bullpen. So I would prefer the first half here
in this game, and we could get the Angels in
the first half of this game and roughly one five range. Yeah,
I'll take that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, like the Angels.
Speaker 1: Listen, it's going to be over the course of the
season as guys start to get hurt, as you know,
like they they grab some interesting bullpen pieces, so like.
But the problem is, it's like they're I don't think
they're built to do much over the course of one
sixty two. So hey, first couple, first couple of weeks,
everyone's healthy, Angels. This might be your time to play
the Angels because this is the type of team, Like
they could start the year ten and ten, but then
they could lose twenty five of their next thirty five.
That's kind of how I see the angel So I
don't hate them in a one off year. But yeah,
I'm with you in the respect that I don't think
they're going to do much this year, and they're probably
going to be a pretty good long term faith Brian,
I got to say this. I think I like you're
seventeen to one on them to have the worst record,
better than the Nationals at plus seven fifty. So I
will say that TV. I want to give you the
floor here. You've already kind of given your best bet,
so just tell us what it is again. If there's
anything else you want to talk about if there's anything
you've got to promote for today.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Wayger talk set up that deal for us. It's
the double play. You can pick two of us. We
can we can't see how how many sold to what,
so we don't know who's going to be the most
popular person. But it could be a popularity vote as well.
Speaker 2: It'll be you for sure, you're the most pot.
Speaker 4: But anyway, so anyway, so we got that deal going on.
I think you get three days of two of us
for like forty something dollars. I think it's forty nine
if I'm not mistaken. So it's a great deal. And
I have a five percent play out today. You could
actually get that five percent play which is normally thirty
five dollars for about what fourteen dollars more, And you
can get another caper as well. So we're all we
all have different opinions, we all have different approaches to
our betting, so taking two of us would be a
very good advantage for your portfolio. I do like the
Angels under today, the Angels Astros I the Astros lineup
is underwhelming in my opinion, and I just think Soriano
is going to perform at least once this season is
probably going to be today. That's about all I have
to say. On my Twitter x account Tokyo under Bar Brandon,
I have released the outs, recorded the top outs, recorded bets,
so I put that out for free so you can
go check that out as well.
Speaker 2: TV. What are you seeing for a number on the under?
Speaker 1: It looks like you could either go with a reduced
juice eight or do you want to throw eight and
a half with juice in it for the parlay.
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that for the parlay. If you want
the strap run.
Speaker 4: Let's do that. I don't see a number in front
of me right now, but it's probably like minus one
forty or something like that. I imagine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say that under with the eight
and a half's like minus one thirty. Again, you could
play under eight at like but yeah, well I want
So here's the deal. I gotta and I'll just you
know before I bring Brian back in. Like, we we
profited on the parlay last year, and after doing the
College Basketball Show and the fact that we're going to
finish a little bit negative on the parlay, it's like
very very impressive that we were able to go six
months and turn plus money on a show three teamer Brian, you're.
Speaker 2: Not and go go ahead, jump in talk to the people.
How impressive that is?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's extremely impressive. I I had, I had no
idea we were gonna come pluse we're ended up making money.
Keep in mind, I don't play parlais. I don't. I'm
not really sure any of us do. This is a
gimmick to give viewers to be honest with you. Hey,
we try to be so as we can to you.
I play the games individually. So I made even more
money than than that. So uh and and as far
this this great special they've got for us by by
two out of the three. If you're new to US,
I strict solely on Major League baseball. Craig does Major
League baseball and then minor league baseball.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I sprinkle some Korea in, but yeah, there
you there you go.
Speaker 3: And then if there's a home plate on any stadium
in the world, that's that's okay. Brandon, he plays Korean baseball,
You play Japanese baseball. So if you had the ability
to bet those games, then you want to go with him.
If you can't bet him, maybe you choose something else.
But if you're only interested in Major League Baseball, that's me.
I got enough on my table to get all that
done every day, So then then if that's fine. So
that's one way to look at it. I'm gonna take
a look at my best bet today and I'm gonna
take a sizeable underdog. I'm gonna take the Chicago White Sox.
They're at Milwaukee. Miss Rowski's going for the Brewers. A
big flamethrower. Everybody loves the guy. The guy made the
All Star Team throwing was it three to five starts
something like that in his first season. So he's a
guy who's been out there. You're betting on name. You're
betting on the Brewers, which are a very good team,
no doubt about it. But I like the White Sox
this year. Smith is the ace of this this staff.
I liked him last year. He didn't have some control issues,
but look better in that regard this year. I think
these teams like the Saint Louis in some of these
teams like this Ministers or Miami, some of the teams
like this are We're gonna be able to make some
money because there's a lot of people like these teams
and right now the general public, we will be betting
all the teams that they know and the players they know,
so we get great advantages here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I got to ask you so again, dealer's choice.
Do you want White Sox money line in the parlay
or for the parlay sake? Do you want to go
plus one and a half. You can do either, It's
up to you.
Speaker 3: Okay, let's see what kind of numbers we've got here. Okay,
I could get the White Sox right now and the
one five to one sixty three range. If I look
at the uh red on this, I get the White
Sox plus the one and a half. But I have
to lay the number. Yep, you're probably laying anywhere from
one thirty to one forty, maybe one thirty five. What
do you guys think? Should I I gave my clients
just a side play. I'd rather take the plus money
because I don't play parlays.
Speaker 2: But all right, let's do it. Then.
Speaker 1: Listen, we we go for broke right out of the gate,
the nice big money line in there.
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't you know this is you know I'm a
White Sox guy Brian I talked about it. Yes, you
want to hear my thoughts about the socks. I think
we I can't remember if they came up yesterday, but
any show last year.
Speaker 2: You get my thoughts on the White.
Speaker 4: They're actually called the Adam Trigger Chicago White Sox.
Speaker 1: I'll add one thing real quick, just because we have
the time to do it, as far as the White
Sox are concerned, Like today, they don't play tomorrow. So
a lot of these teams don't play tomorrow, but the
White Sox and specifically do not in particular, do not
play tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Why that matters you?
Speaker 1: Theoretically could go Smith to Leisure, to Sir Anthony Domingos
to uh Grant Taylor in some fashion today that is
a healing right.
Speaker 3: There also the three bullpen guys out of Chicago that
are great.
Speaker 4: Yes, actually let picture.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So what do you want to call it?
Speaker 1: Plus one sixty plus one fifty five?
Speaker 2: What are you? What are you seeing? Like the kind
of fair.
Speaker 3: Duh?
Speaker 2: I think we could probably call it. I'll put one sixty.
I see enough of that.
Speaker 1: I mean again, as always like shop around, you know,
and yes, Steve, this is another one. I'll just jump
in here the plus one and a half, Like again,
this is one. Brian was saying, Yeah, you're asked to
lay a little bit of juice.
Speaker 2: You kind of are.
Speaker 1: I think if this was twenty cents cheaper, I may
you know, I might be inclined to take the plus.
Speaker 2: One and a half.
Speaker 1: They're with them on the road, knowing I was going
to get that, uh, that kind of stack of pictures,
I'd be looking to stay.
Speaker 2: I'd be that's a good.
Speaker 1: Plus one and a half bet, in my opinion, about
fifty cents off on the money line forty Maybe I
think I made it like Brewers like minus one thirty five.
I think it was up to up as high as
minus one eighty. So yeah, I'm kind of pro White Sox.
Today we have we have an extra minute or two
before I get to my best bet, TV, do you
want to chime in on Brewers White Sox quick?
Speaker 2: Before we move on.
Speaker 4: Brewers White Sox. I don't really have much of an
opinion on it. Brewers were you know, every time I
talk about the Brewers, I get egg on my face.
Right last year, I say, after.
Speaker 3: They lost the Martinals this year, buddy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, last year, the Brewers I said their season is over.
They lost that game to the Mets. Their season of
what did they do? They went on to have one
of the best records in MLB. I think they did
finish with the best record in MLB. So yeah, Brewers
prognostications don't go exactly well for me, but I do
agree with you. I like Smith, but the Brewers always
have good pictures. I thought the Brewers kind of out
overplayed themselves last season, and I think the White Sox
will improve. So I think this is gonna be a
real grinded out game. If you gave me a run
and a half, I probably would take it, but I'm
not gonna bet this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very long term high on the Brewers. I
think they have a ton of pitching depth. But we're
talking about single games, individual games. I think early in
the year, you know, yesterday we talked about win totals
and stuff like that, and you have to like not
try to project out the whole season in like the
the now, it's just two teams playing nine innings today,
and I think that could be challenging as betters, Like
we sit here all spring and say, well, this team's
gonna do this or whatever, and then we get to
the one you know today and you got to realize
it's just nine innings today with the with the pitchers
that are on the field, the players that are on
the field. So I guess that's uh, you know, we'll
get to uh, we'll get to my best bet here
in the minute.
Speaker 2: But so for me, I'll tell you so what d
Nice wants to.
Speaker 1: Talk Twins Orioles, and I'm using the Pirates as my
best bet.
Speaker 2: So we've already talked that whole game.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go back into that Pirates even money
is a play for me today. And if you miss
the breakdown of that, as always, this show is live,
it's on demand on the wager Talk YouTube channel, so
just rewind to the beginning you'll get all of our
thoughts on that. So I will use my time here
at the end and I'll bring YouTube back in real quick.
Twins Orioles, I'll start. I like both of these teams.
I think the Twins are a lot better than they're
getting credit for. And I will promo my new segment.
It's gonna be called off the Radar. I'm gonna do
like ten or fifteen minutes each day, I'm players that
I'm watching in the minors. I might even throw a
triple a bet out. You know, I bet those for clients.
But ultimately, what we'll be foking on, focusing on is
guys that are flying under the radar, the forty man
roster guys, the guys that you might not know about,
but that may you know, be bettable or you know.
I'm trying to give out actionable info and I'm going
to use this game, so I'm going to save my
thoughts on Twins Orioles for that game. Check that out
on the wager Talk YouTube channel ninety seconds or less.
Speaker 2: Brian Leonard Twins Orioles, anything for d nice.
Speaker 3: Love that both these pitchers. The only thing I would
take a look at is they under in the first
hailf probably in this game.
Speaker 2: What about you, TV, Twins Orioles anything for you in
this one?
Speaker 4: Totally agree with Brian. I normally would say take the
Orioles here. The Twins are kind of looks like they're
going to be trash this season, but I don't want
to bet against Joe Ryan, so I would take an
under in the first five as well. If I bet it,
which I didn't.
Speaker 2: Another quick question for you, TV.
Speaker 1: I know you are very meticulous about how you rate
players and pitchers, so I'll ask you both and you
can say yes no. You can even tell me where
you have him in your rankings. If you want Joe
Ryan top fifteen starter in Major League Baseball, I say yes,
where do you?
Speaker 2: Yes or no? Joe Ryan, he's the starter today?
Speaker 4: I say he's He's on the precipice. I'm going to
use that word again. I don't know if he's that.
I don't know if I got him ranked that high.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's fine.
Speaker 4: He's extremely solid and he's very reliable, but I don't
know if he's an ace, so to speak.
Speaker 1: So on the precipice is in no, Brian Leonard, go ahead,
yes or no? Joe Ryan top fifteen starter major League Baseball.
Speaker 3: Anywhere from fifteen to twenty. He did have that thing
in the preseason. Did not yet it got hurt a
little bit, which makes me probably say not top fifteen?
Is this right now? If you ask me today?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 1: Okay, I mean I again, I've been a Joe Ryan
guy for a couple of years, and I will, but
that's not what I'm focused on for this matchup. What
I'm going to talk about on the off you know,
the off the radar segment is more about what you
gotta look for with the Twins in general this year,
which are the names you don't know? I would say
everyone knows who Joe Ryan is at this point. So
we are at the end of the show. Remember we've
got the double play special, so that's any of the
two of us, whoever annoys you the most you can
throw out and then you just you have the other two.
Speaker 2: It's a great deal either way.
Speaker 1: We also have the three sort of three days for
six special that's all access, so like if you want
to use that on me, you'll get all the college
basketball this weekend as well. And then Tokyo. Brandon's got
a five percent coming right out of the gate. I
guess not really right out of the gat. He won yesterday,
so why not. He's got the five percenter today, So
if you're looking for one play, that's probably the move.
And then the first show parlay of like six months
of trying to keep our heads above water. On the parlay,
we are coming in hot though. Brian Leonard plus one
sixty White Sox money line I'm going even money on
the Pirates and then Tokyo Brandon Angels Astros under eight.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 1: That's gonna have minus one thirty juice. So one more time,
that's Pirates money line, that's White Sox money line, Angels Astros.
Speaker 2: Minus one thirty.
Speaker 1: I'll calculate the odds when we get off the show,
but you know those are what the individual game odds
are going to be before we got a minute before
we anyone have anything to say in the final sixty
seconds before we sign off.
Speaker 3: I do believe we're all gonna be doing daily videos,
so keep that in mind. We're just when to get
them up. And like I said, I I'm doing also
my work a little bit later today, so we'll have
everything up for clients later on today.
Speaker 4: Yeah, same here, daily videos. I'm almost daily daily free
plays on my Twitter as well. So go to wager
Talk on YouTube and subscribe and check our videos out
as well. Not just live show.
Speaker 2: You got the likes and subscribes.
Speaker 1: The comments help the we was on this chatter as
good at jumping in the comments as any show I've
ever been on, so we very much appreciate that. And yep,
we'll be back nine am tomorrow morning, Opening Day, Part two,
and then every day Monday through Friday the rest of
the year, I believe Saturdays starting next week. This Saturday,
we're talking college hoops. Still on Last Call. Next week
we'll be starting the Major League Baseball portion of Last Call.
Speaker 2: Thank you guys for tuning in. We will see you
in the morning.