Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. Happy Labor Day, Happy Monday.
It's time to start a new week, and it's September first,
the day that kind of signifies the home stretch of
the Major League Baseball season. Rosters expand guys get called up,
and we're here to break it all down for you.
Speaker 2: A ton of day baseball today.
Speaker 1: So we have Brian Leonard here, I believe, from the
Sunshine State, which is awesome. He made it, and Tokyo
Brandon looking great as usual. I hope you enjoyed some
football this weekend. But it's time to talk base is
excited to do a show with you guys. How's the
weather down there in Florida, Brian.
Speaker 3: It's been nice. I went to the beach yesterday and
I'm burnt as hell, So yeah, that's I get more,
much more sun sitting on the beach than I do
in Vegas, going out to the pool every day. Different
kind of sun when you're close to a beach. Same
every time I go to a beach, I get murdered.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Different kind of sun, different kind of different kind of
humidity down there in Florida.
Speaker 2: It's uh off in the summer.
Speaker 1: My family's got a place not too far from where
you are right now, and it gets it's harsh in
the summer.
Speaker 2: We've had a harsh summer.
Speaker 1: Up here in the Northeast with the humidity, so I'm
looking forward to fall. Tb how close are you to
a beach in Japan?
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, it's a tiny little island, smaller than California.
Well it's California plus a little bit of Oregon, but yeah,
it's it's beaches everywhere. But today in Tokyo was one
hundred and one degrees with sixty five percent humidity. So yeah,
sweet Brough, we're having a heat wave here, but yeah,
there's beaches everywhere. I've been to him several times, and
like Brian said, it's different than the Arizona Las Vegas
heat because Arizona and Las Vegas, you go out, you
just feel like you walked into an oven, it's like,
but here in Japan, it's like it's like the minute
you walk outside, you feel like your whole body is
wrapped in saran wrapped. You know, It's like it's like suffocating.
Pretty bad.
Speaker 1: We're getting some people in I had to do a
little tweet remind people that it's not Sunday.
Speaker 2: It's Monday.
Speaker 1: I know, like everyone here in the States has the
day off, but it is Monday. And you know, I
think that's a good segue because some of these teams
are are going to be mentally preprepped, prepared for the beach,
and that's gonna be a big thing, you know, for the.
Speaker 2: Beach for vacation. That's gonna be a big thing with
with handicappy.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna start with the two teams that are
not because these are two playoff teams. That's the Phillies
and the Brewers. Pretty much no questions there. Both will
be playing in October this year, Brian Leonard, and they're
playing each other today. Very interesting series here in Milwaukee.
We've got Taiwan Walker for the Phills. Played on Sunday
Night baseball last night, So we'll make sure to note
that because again it's anecdotal a little bit. Have you
feel have you felt like teams have been a little
sluggish out the Sunday night game. I feel like I've
gotten in trouble with that backing them at times this year.
So Philly's Brewers, what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, as you pointed about Sunday Night, thing. Yeah, it's
for years. I could back on that. In fact, Marco's
very big on that kind of thing, but it doesn't
seem to be working out as well this year. Off
the top of my head, I don't know. I don't
chart it, so I don't know. But anyway, we've got
Walker against Misarowski here Philadelphia at Milwaukee. Milwaukee's about a
roughly a one fifty favorite total of nine. When I
look at timon Walker, he had had a really good
season until the last time out, if I remember, because
I believe I had him and he got hit pretty hard.
But his ZA three point sixty three expect is up
to four point one nine one point three to three whip,
which is high, but not too much higher than his
career at one point two eight. He survives on a
seventy nine percent til barrel rate, round bowl rate seventieth percentile,
but he doesn't have the big strikeout rate any longer.
He's in the thirteenth percentile. There six percent whip whip
rate extensions extension. I might have mentioned this before, he's
only the fourteenth percent talent extension he had. He's six
foot four, so if they were to totally rework him
in the off season and get that extension up there,
because he should be closer to the play when let's
go to that ball. I think he could have a success.
He's in his later years. He's thirty three, so maybe
that's something they could work on here. But he's opposing
Jacob Azarowski who took the world by fire, was an
All Star after what five games or something like that.
And now if you take a look at him and
you wonder why it's four point three to three ERA,
but expected ra is two point seven to six. His
whip is one point one zero, and if you take
a look at his tech past page on Baseball Savant
and MLB, he's in the ninety nine percent I'll expected
adding average, ninety ninth fastball lost, a ninety nine strikeout percentage,
and ninety ninth an extension. Of course, he's sixty seven,
so he's going to be great at that. But he's
struck out twenty five batter shoot me, sixty five batters
in forty three point two innings. The problem is he's
been very inconsistent, and by looking at this game, while
I'm not a big Taiwan Walker fan, i am a
fan of the Phillies, and to catch the Phillies in
this price range, we can get him in the plus
one thirty five price range. I would prefer them and Misowski.
He could come up and he could shut him down.
He could be great like he was earlier in the season,
but he's obviously taking a step back. And if you
ignore the early part and just go about what he's
done for the last few weeks, he hasn't been that oppressor.
So I think there's value here on Philadelphia with Walker
and something that I'm taking a look at for today's card.
I'm going to all the games are in the day
today for the most part, so as soon as the
show's overall, make sure what's going on there, check out
some lineups. But I prefer Philadelphia this matchup.
Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, go to our pages at wayjatalk dot com.
I already have something out MLB last thirty days plus
six thousand dollars on one hundred dollars bets going pretty well.
I'm sure Brian and Adam are going to have something
up as well. WAYJA talk dot com. Go check out
what we got regarding this matchup. Yeah, I got these
two teams pretty evenly matched I've never been a big
Taiwan Walker fan, but he's having a pretty good season. However,
if you look how he's pitched against these batters in
his career, he's been pretty smashed. Forty at bats against
three seventy five batting average against in a one thy
sixty nine ops against and that's forty at bats against,
so it's a pretty decent sample. Side. Now, one start
to contradict that would be the fact that Taiwan Walker
pitches better on the road than he does at home,
and today he's on the road. So will Milwaukee smash
him or not? I'm not exactly sure. I'm not confident
to make a bet on it, but if I did,
I would take maybe the Milwaukee team total over because
I don't really want to take either one of these
teams on the side. And Philly's bullpen has been mediocre
to sub mediocre, as I like to say, toiling in mediocrity.
Misroski another way that you could go here, miss Roski,
his last start was pretty good, had good control, good command,
But the four starts before that he walked two guys
or more in each start, So maybe his walks over
one and a half. If you can get that might
be a decent play as well. So those would be
the only two ways I'd go here.
Speaker 1: I'm sort of all in on Jacob Misrowski going forward.
My gut tells me no, Now, I know you've got
I know you have.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: The numbers regressed a little bit in August, totally to
be expected in my opinion. As Brian said, he got
called up, he appeared in an All Star Game after
like five starts. Incredibly rare, just a very unique sort
of like thing to happen in my opinion, because not
I mean, you just don't see that very often. Guy
gets called up and suddenly he's in an All Star Game,
pitches in the All Star Game, and then you have
the Brewers sort of tweaking his innings a little bit
because and this goes back to something that I said
last month. I said, well, you're gonna I think you're
gonna see the Brewers mess with his innings a little
because he was pitching regularly as a starter triple A
and they did that. They they gave him that sort
of short outing against Seattle coming off the All Star
Game appearance. He had n't pitched for a while, and
you know, sometimes sometimes that does more bad than good.
I'm not a big fan Tokyo Brandon talks about it
all the time. I'm not a big fan with team
teams tweaking pitchers routines. We saw it with Gavin Williams
after the big start where he had where he almost
threw the no hitter, threw one hundred and twenty six pitches,
and then and then the Guardians came in and said,
you know what, let's just throw him a couple extra
days off. And it's like, well, now you ran his
pitch count up and you messed up his schedule. I
think some of that happened to Miseraski over the course
of August, got him out of his rhythm a little bit,
and you know it just I think that's why you
saw the numbers regress just a little last time out. Yeah,
I gave up a couple of runs, ten strikeouts, one
walk against a very very good Diamondbacks team. Sort of
shows how dominant he can be. And now it's September.
I truly believe, like I know a lot of people
like this Brewers team. I truly believe for the Brewers
to win win anything this year. They got to ride. MISERASKI.
He's got to be their ace. He's got to be
the guy that can go out and wipe a team
out for six innings. And I think they're going to
sort of let him try to do that a little
bit in September to truly see what they have going
into going into the playoffs. I'm not saying he's their
number one, but I think that that's the type of
effort they need from him come October to really be
a World Series contender. So I'm not big on Walker.
We've talked about it a ton on this show. I
think he's a guy that's due for some regression. And
you know what, the Phillies did play last night, so
I think it's at least worth bringing up. I lean
toward the Brewers here. Not sure if that'll be my
parlay leag but I really like Miserrowski, and I think,
going back to what Brian said, the stuff rates out
very high. If he's on, he's gonna be very, very
tough to hit. Markinson says he trusts trusts Brewers, bats
and pitching over Philly. I think this is gonna be
a pretty good series. I totally I'm not gonna put
you off making the point that like there might be
some value on Philly here, but I just am very
high on Jacob Mzerowski.
Speaker 2: So I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 1: Brian, Are you gonna get to a Fort Myers Mighty
Muscles game while you're in town?
Speaker 2: Is the real question.
Speaker 3: That's why I haven't. But I have been to both
those stadiums down here in that area to for spring training,
and both very nice stadiums down here. I enjoyed it.
Speaker 2: That'll be that.
Speaker 1: That's what we'll get to maybe get to that star.
Oh that's actually what will segue there. So Fort Myers
the Mighty Muscles. I think that's a new, a new mascot.
Speaker 2: I know.
Speaker 1: It's the single A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins, who you know,
have kind of become their single A affiliate or maybe
their Triple A affiliate for you know, pretty much since
the All Star Break when they traded away they're half
of their roster around the All Star break. Now, yeah,
they traded away a lot of guys. So to the
to the Twins credit, and I think they won.
Speaker 2: For our guy that went to the game on Friday.
Speaker 1: To the Twins credit, they showed up this past weekend,
took two of three from the Padres.
Speaker 2: I thought they played well, and.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, you're starting to see some of
the guys that if you go back maybe two three weeks,
I said, why do they have some of these guys
at Triple A. Why is Taj Bradley starting games for
Saint Paul? He came up over the weekend and you're
starting to see some of these other guys get up there. So,
Brian Leonard, Twins are now at home for four nights.
I guess today's the day game, but four days against
the Chicago White Sox. Interesting because the theoretically the Twins
are they still kind of the better team here. How
do you handicap this game this series? And what are
the White Socks going to do with pitching? Because I
think the guy that was going to pitch is no
longer on the team. I thought it was Aaron Savali.
I believe he's a cub now. So what are the
Twins do or what are the White Sox do today?
And do you like the Twins at all?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that because I was out
of the beach all day and I did not realize
that and Sovally is listed, but on our website or
on our line service odslogic dot com, it is undecided.
And when I saw it was Savali, I thought they
had some pretty good value on the White Sox. But
if he's not there, obviously, I'm gonna have to real.
Speaker 1: He They put him on waivers and he was very
quickly grabbed by the Chicago Cubs. Interesting that they were
so quick to kind of sign him, but hey, he
threw the ball pretty well for the White Sox, so
good for him.
Speaker 2: Go ahead.
Speaker 3: They picked up Santana, Carlos Santana too from Cleveland, so yeah,
they're trying to fill some holes there. So I don't
know who's going to go for Chicago, but I do
know that baby Over's going and the line is going
anywhere from you know, one seventy bet online up to
one ninety five in other place. There's no way I
could go out and pitch for the White Sox and
not feel comfortable about Minnesota is a one ninety five
favorite here, so I like the White Sox. Will have
to see who they throw out there. I'll check. Let's
take a quick look at a bullpen situation for the
White SOX, maybe it'll be able game. Let me take
a quick look here, we'll see what you got. Okay,
they've got yesterday Wilson through sixteen pitches. He'll be available.
Leisures pitched to it the last three days, but they
didn't pitch yesterday. Vashal's pitched to it three days and
he pitched yesterday. So it may be a situation where
they just go small one ending of time for the guys.
But at this point, without knowing, I can't talk a
whole lot about this game, but I but I don't
want any part of Minnesota that sounds of a favorite.
Speaker 4: Guys. If you go to my my Twitter X account,
I went to a Buddhist temple today, you can see
some pretty cool picks there. So regarding this game, yeah,
Bailey Over is not a guy I like to back,
but neither are the Chicago White Socks. I got both
of these bullpens rinked worse than twenty fifth current form,
so that would immediately make me think, hmm, I want
to take an over here. The problem is, if you
look at how Bailey Over is pitched against these guys
that he's facing today, he's absolutely dominated them a one
to eighty six average against in a four point fifty
five OPS, which is three hundred points better than what
I consider the Mendoza line for OPS. So definitely not
taking Chicago White Sox over today despite Minnesota's bullpen struggles.
But Chicago's bullpen is struggling quite badly as well. I
don't know who's pitching for them, but usually when they
wait till the last minute to put their pitcher out,
it means he could be an opener, could be a
young guy, but in most cases it exposes their bullpen
for a lot more innings than they're normally exposed. Minnesota's
bats mediocre at the moment in current form, not as
bad as I thought. They were rank fourteen on a
thirty according to my numbers. So I would take a
Minnesota team total here. I would love to see it
if it's If it's three and a half, I certainly
would put a lot of money on it. If it's
four and a half, which is probably what it is, Yeah,
then mile a mild, a mild small bet on over
four and a half for Minnesota.
Speaker 3: Perhaps here the team total is going to be higher
than that if you go by the current lines. If
they're a one ninety favorite and the total is nine
and a half. That means it'll be at least five.
Speaker 4: So I would not do that.
Speaker 3: That would be too much.
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, maybe maybe maybe a White Sox team total
under here because Ober, despite being a pretty poor pitcher,
has great numbers against these guys. So something to consider.
Speaker 3: Sure you're considering under for.
Speaker 4: Over under over over out under an airplane? What a
great right over under under? Huh?
Speaker 3: Bad day, bad day to quit smoking?
Speaker 1: Uh, Steve Steve Duke says Saint Paul Saints. They actually
fill the seats. It's weird. Listen, if you don't fill
the seats at Triple A, you lose your team. Now
that pretty much is that. When Major League Baseball came
in and took ownership of of the miners, essentially, it's like,
if you're not filling the stands, you you basically just
lose your your affiliated teams. So they gotta find ways.
Yeah did because they were they were losing money. So yeah,
you you gotta find ways. Brian Aviators parks always full, right,
they can get good crowds.
Speaker 3: There announced crowds. They everyplace counts the season ticket holders
and so a lot of the season ticket holders are
is a little bit higher because the A's are coming
to Vegas and they get the first choice on the tickets.
But I was there at the other day and then
I couldn't see more than five hundred people in the stands,
and I think they said they had, you know, eight
thousand or something.
Speaker 2: So who wants Yeah, that's that's You're right, that that
is a that is the thing. We get great crowds
here in Syracuse.
Speaker 1: I just thought that was an interesting comment because they
do they do put fans in the seats or you
becoming very much in.
Speaker 2: Danger of losing your team.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'm gonna look for I'm looking for a
name today now that we note so this is kind
of like an emergency type scenario for the White Sox.
Obviously they probably knew that what they were gonna do
with Soavali, but yet this was so current that he
was actually listed as the starter.
Speaker 2: So, as you guys.
Speaker 1: Pointed out, it could be a bullpen game. I'm also
with Brian, I would love to go against the Twins here.
I think this is an insane line for the Twins
and Bailey over to lay. So I'm gonna throw a
name out that I would love to see. Now this
is a day game, so it's like I almost feel
like we should have heard about it already. But in
the trade for Adrian Houser, the White Sox got back
a kid named by the name of Duncan David from
the Rays organization. I do believe. So he made his
last start on Wednesday, which means this would be the
fifth day, so this would be I think he's supposed
to start tomorrow for Charlotte. This would be his turn
in the rotation like a normal rest. The reason I
bring him up is since he since he showed up,
he was having a very very good season for Durham.
He actually started the year at Double A. He's been
very strong in the minors since showing up in the
White Sox organization. He's got a one point eight whip
or one point six whip in a one to eighty
three batting average against.
Speaker 2: He's been very, very good.
Speaker 1: And if the White Sox being as it's September first,
and it's much easier to expand rosters and and Brian.
Speaker 2: What does that mean?
Speaker 1: They just have extra roster spots, they don't have to
send guys down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're able to bring up some guys, set them
on the bench, get them. He used to measure league
dugouts and hopefully learn something from the veterans. And some
of these guys, I mean Cincinnati brought up Stewart, some
of the other guys have really brought up some of
their top prospects. So they should be able to get
a good look at these these players.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so so because it's not going to cost them
a roster spot to add someone. I wouldn't be surprised
that the White Sox were in the process of trying
to get Duncan David to Minnesota to make his major
league debut today.
Speaker 2: And if that's.
Speaker 1: The case, I would one hundred percent roll the dice
with the White Sox here because he's been really good
at TRIPAA.
Speaker 2: They would probably be unprepared for him.
Speaker 1: You'd still have some of the White Sox good bullpen arms,
and you'd get to fade Bailey over at this huge number.
I mean, the Twins are not a team you should
be laying that number with anyway, and this would actually
give you some reason, I think, to go against them.
So keep an eye out for that name. I will
be looking throughout the show to see if the White
Sox announce something. I still haven't even seen it on
White Sox Twitter. So also if you're tuned in it
all and you see that, if you see it on
Twitter at any point during the show, let us know,
because if Duncan David's the starter, I'm probably be in
the White Sox today, all right, Brian Leonard, They JG
wants to know any fruitful observations on Red Sox Guardians.
Your Guardians continue to just hang around. I thought they
were going to pull off the sweep yesterday and really
hang around every time.
Speaker 2: I think this team's cooked.
Speaker 1: They take two of three from a team I don't
think they should take two of three from, and the
Red Sox didn't have their banner weekend against the Pirates.
So Red Sox Guardians, any shot for the Guardians or
are they just is this just more false hope from
this team ran well.
Speaker 3: I felt the same way that I was surprised that
Cleveland was playing so well, so I used I went
against him and took Seattle yesterday. I worked out well.
A baseball weekend was really strong. Unfortunately, in football, after
a big opening week, Zero struggled in football aspect. But
luckily I only had a lot of one percent plays,
so only one bad play and that was Alabama and
that was just a horrendous pick. But we got Messic
going against Bayo, Messic being a lefty, and before we
get to this was that player for the White Sox
seal left he or already that you were recommending.
Speaker 2: Now I have to Now I have to double check,
even though I was let me know, he's right. He's
a right handed pitcher.
Speaker 3: He's a right handers. For myself, I'm not as high
on him as I am left He's coming up to
the majors, but Messick is the lefty here. He's been
very good so far, obviously overperforming his metrics. But BeO
has been just as good. Uh. It surprised me this year.
Line's about one forty five for Boston, eight and a
half on the total. H Parker Messik. If you take
a look at what he's done so far, he's thrown
thirteen point two innings zero point sixty six the RA
expect to the RA two point eighty five. Not the
guy who's gonna blow you away with his fastball. Velossie.
It's only in the twenty seventh percent tel. He does
throw five pitches, even though the sinker is only eight
percent of the time. I do like that, But his
four seamer he's thrown forty five percent of the time,
and it's not the best pitch out there. So eventually
I'm a little bit worried about him. But Brian BeO
has been really good. It comes in with a two
point nine to nine the ra Now, who would have
thought that four point twenty five expected, though that's more
in line one point two to one whip. His whiff
rate is only the fourteenth percentile struck out rate and
the twenty second percent, so we got two very similar
guys in that regard. He doesn't give up fly balls
eighty second percentile round ball rate, and he does throw
six pitches, although there's only five that he throws thirteen
percent of the time or more. We're looking at as
I mentioned, one forty five eight and a half, somewhat
like the under here. It's tough going under Boston because
there's such a good ballpark when it comes to hitting,
but they don't give out a lot of home runs,
but it's a lot of doubles off of that wall.
Sight linked to the under here. Don't know if I'll
get there, but yeah, Cleveland, we'll see how they go.
They're a team that's used to go into the playoffs
and they're not going to the playoffs this year, so
we'll see how they management approaches the end of the season.
Speaker 4: Here, Guys, do us a favor. Go to the replay
and leave a comment, because we read them all. Whether
you like us or hate us, think we suck, think
we're great, let us know and if you have any
questions for us, we'll be happy to share our knowledge
with you. Uh, maybe you can teach us something as well.
Leave a comment and a like on the replay. Brian,
are you a Roper's guy or do you like mister
Furley better?
Speaker 3: Uh, that wasn't a question I was expecting. Today.
Speaker 4: I watched the documentary on Three's Company today. Yeah, I
like mister Furley a little better too. Anyways, regarding Adam,
this is before your time, so you don't know what
Three's Company is, probably do you know?
Speaker 1: I mean it's yeah, it's uh, I mean I used
to watch it on like Nick at night, so this
is like, you know, a lot not all that was
going on, but it's why can't I think of the
actor's name, who's the guy?
Speaker 4: Uh John Ritter.
Speaker 2: Don Not. Yes, yep, Summer I was tongue great show.
Speaker 4: But anyway, back then when we were growing up, that
was like very risque. But these days you see a
lot worse than that on TV now. But anyways, I digress,
So to this game. This game, these two teams. I
have actually the closest matchup of the day between these
two teams, which is kind of surprising because you think
Cleveland is pretty much given up on the season and
are fading away. Actually neither teams hitting very well. I
have both teams hitting worse twenty two or worse out
of thirty in current form, and I have both bullpens
performing really well. Now this is the Cleveland bullpen we
expected at the beginning of the season, but they weren't
pitching this well. But now Cleveland's bullpen has turned it up.
Boston's bullpen is actually better. I have Boston rank seven
and Cleveland rink eleven in current form. So poor hitting
plus really good bullpens usually would make me lean to
an under, and a couple things shine me away from
an under here. Number one, like Brian mentioned, the ballpark
is not conducive to unders. And the second thing that
would kind of lead me off and under would be
Bao has been actually absolutely clubbed like a baby seal
against these guys, a three seventy five average against you know,
twenty twenty eight ops. Granted it's only twenty four at bats,
but that would scare me off and under there. But
if anything, under would be the only way I would
lean here.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll pull up this comment.
Speaker 1: Wolf says half of Cleveland's team suspended for sports betting.
Like that's just false, Like it was a couple. It
was a couple of guys. And listen, I don't know
what the clubhouse dynamic is, but one of the guys
suspended was.
Speaker 2: A new was new to the team.
Speaker 1: So, like, do you think it was additioned by subtraction
at all? From like getting that out of there and
just moving past it, because the Guardians have really played
better in my opinion, since all of that has kind
of faded away.
Speaker 2: I don't know what's your take on that.
Speaker 3: Brian, Well, yesterday it was a big day because they
were waiting to find out. He originally said at the
end of August they were suspended now they're saying they're
going to be suspended the rest of the year. It's
an ongoing investigation. I think everybody wanted it to be
solved or not. It's I'm not worried about Artis Artees.
He's never been much of a more than an average
starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. But when your best
reliever in the history of the team gets suspended and
it may not pitch him major League Baseball, there's a
lot of concern about that. But now that they know
that he's not going to be with him the rest
of the season, maybe that's a good thing that they
don't have to worry about that anymore. So. But yeah,
that's just the two guys, and I'm sure that a
lot of that is going on, which is why I've
never understood why they would take let you bet the
first pitch. Just too much manipulation. Could be that that
that that's the government and the sportsbooks problem. They should
never have been allowed that. So but no, they're they're
they're a team. The rest of the guys are back,
and you know they cut They cut Santana the other day,
which was a fan favorite, but it was something that
had to be done, he wasn't going to be on
the team next year, and so they get better look
at the young players. So that's what I'm excited about
being a Cleveland fan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and listen, like you know, there's no question that
Emmanuel Colasse would would be like helping the team, But
he wasn't a guy that that I necessarily wanted in
the big leverage spots this year. Like he was not
having the best season in my opinion, I don't think
I don't think the team is like significantly worse off
without him. And you know, he's just not the guy
who was the previous couple of years. You even talking
about that coming into the season, the inning, the usage
last year, and you could sort of see it coming
toward the end of the year.
Speaker 2: He didn't look great.
Speaker 1: This year, So I don't really put much stock into
that at all. If anything, I think the Guardians, in
spite of not being able to hit, have really played
some of their best ball over the last month.
Speaker 2: So I'll bring it back to this handicap into this game.
Speaker 1: I think they're a little undervalued at current at present
right now when you continue to get them, like I know,
it didn't work out yesterday I'm glad you had the
Mariners in that game, or I'm sorry.
Speaker 2: Two days ago.
Speaker 1: Two days ago and I did the video for the Guardians.
I gave out Guardians as my free pick. They were
like plus one forty five at home in that game
on Saturday today. I mean, Beyo Versu Messic, who's been
pretty good, and the Red Sox have never seen catch
plus one twenty six plus one thirty. I kind of
think the Guardians had some value right now. Not sure
if I'll play it, but I don't know that I've
I want to lay that price with the Red Sox here.
I didn't see enough from the Red Sox this weekend
to make me sort of confident laying a dollar forty
five with them in what looks to be a somewhat
of an even matchup. So I'll throw Guardians out there
as a value play. But it's very likely a pass
for me. And guys. While I was while I was,
you guys were talking about this game the White Sox.
It could be Mike Clevenger too, which would make me
less inclined, less inclined to back the White Sox. But
if they did something where they were like hey, because
it is remember the White Sox are operating as a
developmental team right now. I've been talking about this for months.
If they were like, hey, you know what, let's just
do it. Let's give Davitt the start here because tomorrow
is his start at Triple A, then I'd be in Clevenger.
Speaker 2: I'm probably out.
Speaker 1: So just to circle back to that game where we
didn't know who the starter was, Okay, let's move on.
Speaker 2: This is an interesting one. This one is the first
spun off the board.
Speaker 1: Lingo Wick says, let's talk Nationals Marlins, Brian Leonard. This
is another one where the Marlins are gonna have to
scramble for a starter because Ryan Gusto hit the I
L yesterday, so this would have been Ryan Gusto's spot
in the rotation.
Speaker 2: They he hit the eye L and.
Speaker 1: No one has really much of a clue who's who's
going to pitch today for the Marlins.
Speaker 2: I have done my sort of research here.
Speaker 1: I think they could potentially call up Morgan McSweeney. But
what I think is gonna happen here for the Marlins
is it's really gonna be like a collection of whatever
bullpen arms can maybe throw an inning or two in
this game, and on the flip side, it looks like
it's gonna be Andrew Alvarez for the net. He will
be making Yeah. So this this I believe will be
his MLB debut. And this is a lefty. So you
like those lefties that no one knows about. Uh, Andrew Alvarez.
I've got to see a couple of times up here
in Rochester.
Speaker 2: He is. He has sort of turned corner.
Speaker 1: Over the last month month and a half, growing as
good as it because he's been here for a couple
of years now, throwing the ball as good as he's
been at any point in Triple A. Probably why he's
getting his shot here. This one goes soon one pm Eastern.
Any any in for you in Marlin's NAT today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Andrew Alvarez twenty six years old, making his major
league debut. That's a little low. They usually have these
guys up a little bit before twenty six in Triple A.
This year he just comes out of a four point
one OARA, a one point three five whip and that's
the Eastern League. That's not the one they have out
in Vegas where the ball flies. So that's a little
bit of a concern as for Miami. Yeah, they at
this point they don't know who's coming up and it's
but it's got to be better than.
Speaker 1: The last I would approach it, Brian, I would just
approach it as as bullpen game, because even if it
is McSweeney, he's probably gonna throw three four.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Ryan Gusta was not a guy that I was
high on even when he made the trade, and since
the trade he has been horrendous. So anybody they've got there,
if you follow Miami, we talked about it all season long.
They made a lot of changes to the front office
the way they were doing things in the preseason, and
the pitching staff has been much better this year. So
they've got plenty of guys that they could choose from.
Give them three innings the least, and then go with
a bullpen Because of that, I prefer that side here,
but some books at this point don't have lines up.
But with Alvarez right now in the majority, you're looking
at about a one twenty five favorite total of nine.
I do like the lefties when they come up, but
he's not one of the ones I would run out
to bet. And with Miami undecided on the pitcher, I'll
probably pass. We'll see how what happens is the day
goes on. But nothing jumps out of me at this game.
Speaker 4: So guys, we got stuff available. Go to waigitalk dot
com to see what we got, and we always put
free plays up as well, so go check those out
when you have a chance. It's worse than ten seconds
to see how three of the best kappers are putting
free plays out, So go check our pages at wager
talk dot com. Regarding this game. If Miami's making this
a bullpen game, they have one of the worst bullpens
in current form right now, ranked twenty eight out of
thirty according to my numbers. But the problem with that
is Washington hitting is ranked twenty six out of thirty
in current form. So it's a complete stalemate for me.
No way I'm going to put money on this game
unless it's monopoly money. So yeah, I'm not going to
play this one at all, So I'll just pass it
to Adam.
Speaker 1: I thought Andy's like he said noon o'clock. I thought
I said one o'clock. But I got to be honest,
I probably had like ten high noons yesterday.
Speaker 2: That's a rare. That's rare for me.
Speaker 1: So yeah, little uh, I might just be saying random
stuff this morning.
Speaker 4: You're at your boy no matter what country they're from.
Speaker 1: Jesus, Yeah, no, we're we're off and running here on
the holiday. I mean, actually, that's that's what I plan
on doing today too. I'm probably just gonna hang out.
I think we're grilling and I'm gonna watch baseball a day.
Probably be the most anti social person at the at
the barbecue, if you will. But as far as this
game's concerned, I might be. I might actually, you know what,
we are going to be involved in this game. I'm
gonna take the Marlins money line right here. I'm with you, Brian,
Like Andrew Alvarez is the guy I've seen pitch at
Rochester a couple of times. He's I think this is
a type of a scenario where he was. He was
a national draft pick. Okay, twelfth rounder. The term they
use in corporate world is like a company guy, right, Like,
so sometimes sometimes these organizations, like if you're out there
working your tail off and and you come through the organization,
right and like he was a twelve round he went
to cal Poly.
Speaker 2: I don't know that they ever really looked at him.
Speaker 1: As someone that would impact the big league club, but
they're totally out of it. And sometimes what happens in
September is you will get rewarded for your hard work
with your big league debut. It's not like the rest
of the year where it's like guys the rest of
the year they get called up.
Speaker 2: It's typically they.
Speaker 1: Were dominating in the minors and they got called up
because they and I don't want to say he didn't
earn the call up, but this feels like one of
those scenarios where the Gnats are like, hey, we're completely
out of it. We're gonna play whoever. Alvarez has worked
his tail off for us for four years, we drafted
him in twenty twenty one, and we can give the
guy his MLB debut. Let's do that. That's what this
feels like here for the Gnats. The Marlins, on the
other hand, even if they call up McSweeney, who's been
very good at TRIPAA, I think this is going to
be two innings here, three innings here, maybe another two
innings here, which is what the Marlins have done a
lot this year. I'm kind of comfortable with that because
it's no different than what you've seen out of the
Marlins on a lot of other games this year. I
don't think it's gonna be very different from what the
Marlins have done from time to time. I just don't
think the Marlins should be an underdog. Brian, what are
we getting here on Marlins? Is it still like plus
one oh five or like even money.
Speaker 3: You can get upwards of one ten, but basically most
places are plus one oh five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like the Marlins shouldn't be a dog here.
Speaker 1: I would list to action because you don't know exactly
who they're gonna start, and it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: That's that's it. That's the point.
Speaker 1: I want to sort of drive home the Marlins it
does not matter who they start, because they're just gonna
they're gonna do what the mar what the Marlins kind
of do, where it's like they've got a guy that
can go three innings, next guy can go two, and
then they'll just mix and match the rest of the way.
I'm totally comfortable with that. I'm not really worried about
the Nats doing much damage there. That being said, I
remember Rochester Jacksonville actually did play a couple of times
this year. I went to that series up here in Rochester.
They don't always play, so some of these hitters might
have some familiarity with Alvarez as well. Just no way
the Nationals should be favored here. So let's go Marlins
to start off the parlay. That'll be my parlay leg
for the day. All right, let's move on. Let's see
what we've got here.
Speaker 2: Great.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm sitting through the chat comments and we're talking
like Vietnam War skinny women, like I'm trying to find
a game to talk about, and the chat has gone
completely off the rails.
Speaker 3: Today.
Speaker 1: That's okay, listen, it's it's it's a holiday, like my
family's on the boat right now, like I'm working here
like everyone else.
Speaker 2: Is the day off, So we we got to mess
around a little bit.
Speaker 1: Turnbuckle Tommy says that the books are just opening.
Speaker 2: Their arms to Blue Jay's money. Are you seeing that?
Speaker 1: To Brian Leonard, this is kind of a kind of
a big game right here, reds J's Is it a
lot of Is it a lot of Red's money? With
Hunter Green on the mound is well, I'm sorry, are
they are? Is it a lot of Blue Jays money?
Are they trying to bait you into taking the j's
at plus money here. I couldn't get a great read
on this game, so I'm kind of curious what you
have to say.
Speaker 2: Blue Jay's rents.
Speaker 3: Well, they don't beat you into the game. They they
I don't believe any of that, that the books want whatever.
For the most part, they're just putting out the best
line possible.
Speaker 2: The wrong term, I mean, I meant they do shade though.
I I.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they got Bassett coming in with a four point
one four r a one point three to three whip expected,
the RA of four point oh eight. Uh, pretty good,
acts of velocity eighty eighth percentile, eighty four percent hard right.
So here's a guy. He's a veteran, he's been around
eleventh Season's thirty six years old and uh he's uh
he's from Happening and that'swhear Right graduated college. So I've
always had a soft spot for him. He's had a
really nice career. He's going up against Hunter Green. Hunter
Green when he's healthy, he's been terrific all season long.
Comes out with a two point eight one ERA two
point eight five in my eyes still early in the
morning for me, two point eighty five era expected are
a zero point ninety seven a whip five percent ground ball, right.
We talked about that before with the Reds. They've somehow
managed to for get all these flyball pitchers and I
give up home runs. But he's only a three pitch
pitcher and he throws that fastball fifty five percent of
the time. I think he'll struggle with that as he
gets older and he loses some of that velocity. And
right now he's in the ninety nine percent of all right, now,
all good, but he's going to have to change the
way he pitches as he gets older. On the current line,
we're looking at Green basically about a one sixteen favorite
total of eight. I prefer Green over Bastid, obviously, but
Toronto's been playing a lot better and they're still in
the race to win that division. Cincinnati at this point
is basically out of the playoffs, so we don't know
how long Green's going to go. They may decide at
this point to just give him the five and fly
the rest of the way out. I don't know he'll
if he'll like it, but if you've had the injuries
that he's had, eventually you're going to say you know what,
should we shut this guy down? This could be something
that comes comes later in the season, but as of
right now, I think the line's about right. I can't
get a fix on either side here, But as for
begging for money, I don't know. I don't think so.
Speaker 4: So the way I have this, the first off, I
look at this number, I'm like, why in the world
are the Blue Jays underdogs here? And then I look
at the starting pitching. Okay, I think Hunter Green gets
a little too much credit from the books. Yes, he's
a flamethrower, strikeout guy, but Bassett has great numbers against
these Reds batters in his history, and Green does not
have good numbers against the Blue Jays. Now, when I
break the teams down, I see the Blue Jays batting
ninth in current form and I see the Reds batting
twenty seventh in current form. And both bullpens are worse
than twenty in current forms. So that tells me I
kind of agree with Turnbuckle Tommy here. I think the
Jays should be favored here. And matter of fact, I'm
gonna make the Blue Jays my leg of the parlay
at plus one oh five. I think the Blue Jays
are just overall better team. They have ten more wins
than Cincinnati. The only red flag here is the fact
that they're on the road. So yeah, I like the
Blue Jays here. That the bullpen though, it's just so
hard to trust, but the plus money is just so
delicious here. I mean, they're the better team overall, so
I'll take the Blue Jays.
Speaker 1: I think it's worth pointing out that both both teams
have used quite a bit of bullpen over the past
couple of days, so it's like, yeah, that's what I mean,
you had, So basically you had. You've had the Reds
who won yesterday seven to four and needed a couple
of their leverage arms, but have been playing close games
for you know, that entire series was pretty much close.
A lot of bullpen usage there. The Blue Jays got
me on Saturday. Unfortunately, I got a phenomenal outing out
of Kevin Gossman, and then that bullpen that you just
spoke of came up to bite me. Jeff Hoffman comes
in and just is serving them up left and right.
So I think the way I look at this one,
the bolt like you're probably gonna get to the to
the bullpens anyway, and it's gonna decide it. I don't
care for either, So it's like, I guess, why not
take the bus plus money at that point. That's just
how I'm looking at it. TV is more competent in
the in in a side here than I am. So
we roll with the Jays. Brian, what's the price on
the Jays?
Speaker 4: Here?
Speaker 3: Jays you can get?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 3: I guess plus one oh five is pretty much. You
can get a little bit better at some paces, but
plus one on five you should be able to get everywhere.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, my my number suggests that that's value.
Speaker 1: Again, I don't like I I couldn't get a good
read on this game. So but my number suggests that
Blue Jays are value at plus one oh five. And
the one the one thing that I kind of had
in my notes was both teams of bullpen usage.
Speaker 2: Don't trust either bullpen.
Speaker 1: So it's probably gonna be probably gonna come down to
a timely hit one way you're going.
Speaker 4: To trust either bullpen And in that case, I'll take
the number five lineup over the number twenty seven lineup
any day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's this this week kind of tough to
Aaron Pauling says, you got to figure the Reds have
more motivation sitting four games back with wild card spot.
I feel like the Blue Jays have to like get
it in gear. They're going to lose that division. I mean,
Brian's kind of like already buried the Reds, which I
don't totally disagree with. Like I'm not saying the Reds
aren't motivated to win some games, but they're looking at
three teams ahead of them that are much better than
they are. I think we've kind of come to that conclusion.
It's gonna be tough for the Reds to sort of
get back into it. The Blue Jays got to wake
up a little bit because the Yankees and Red Sox
are both very capable of getting hot and rattling off
six or seven wins and all of a sudden, what
are the Blue Jays coming to play today?
Speaker 2: Maybe a four game lead in that division on two
of them.
Speaker 1: Like I'll before we go to the next game, Brian,
do you think someone's catching the Blue Jays or no?
Speaker 2: Do you think the Blue Jays hold off that division
or TV? I'm curious to see what you guys say.
Speaker 3: Do the Red Sox I trust Boston over the Yankees.
But there's they're three and three and a half games out.
I still think Toronto wins the division. But they're all
very good.
Speaker 4: Teams, and justus because they're both ends actually playing well
now and Judge is waking up. He's not playoff Judge anymore.
So Yanks are pretty Yankees have a shot to catch him,
I think.
Speaker 1: Right and to tie into like your handicap of the
Blue Jays. I I don't think you're going to see
one team less motivated than another here.
Speaker 2: I feel like they both have a lot to play
for right now.
Speaker 4: So every player in MLB has a lot to play
for next year's contract. So the players when they're trying
to hit a ball, they're not thinking, oh, I better
hit this or we won't make the playoff. They're thinking,
I need to hit this ball.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying, like both of these teams there's
still a lot on the line, Like for the J's
you don't want to let that division slip away, and
for the Reds like, yeah, you're still very much in
it if you can get hot.
Speaker 2: So it's a yeah, I want a motivation that I
would say so much that's.
Speaker 3: The problem this time of the year because you're bringing
up the young guys, and you know, some of these
things that are out of the playoffs. We'll be testing
out the young players and the fans like that. But
when you're on the border like that, when you were
just hanging on a little bit, like the Kansas City's
and the Cincinnatis, yeah, you're you're not able to give
it much of a look. Although I did say that
Cincinnati's bringing up one of their best prospects.
Speaker 2: Oh, he should have been up already. That's Sal Stewart.
Learn the name.
Speaker 1: If you haven't learned that name already, he should have
been up two weeks ago. I mean, the guy's like
he's just been hitting tanks and in the minors for
like like, I thought they should have got him into
that lineup a couple of weeks ago. I'm very excited
to see him play at the big league level. He's
been awesome since since getting a triple A. Two drinks
in very fit, that's very fitting for today. That's gonna
be me about two PM. Probably two drinks in. Wants
to know if we can talk Mets Tigers. This will
probably be the game on at my my father in
law's house, a big Mets fan, and I gotta get Sean.
I saw Sean pop on the pop up in the chat.
I feel like I feel like the Tigers put it
to bed this weekend. I made a comment on Friday
that said, oh, you know, if they don't, if they
f around this weekend, the Royals could be back in
the mix.
Speaker 2: The Royals are not back in the mix.
Speaker 1: Scooble sort of slammed the door on the Division in
my opinion last night. So, Brian, maybe the Tigers are
one of these teams they can kind of tweak some things,
try some things out. I guess like they're you know,
they may go through the motions a little bit in September.
They now have a nine and a half game lead
in the division. The Mets don't have that luxury, though
they're still fighting.
Speaker 2: They could.
Speaker 1: I mean, theoretically they could still catch the Phillies, I suppose,
but they're in a battle because a lot of those
teams in the National League are very close in terms
of where their wild card sort of seating is. So
what do you see in this one? Tiger's Mets, Mets
with a ton to play for. Tiger's still a very
good team though, any angle.
Speaker 3: For you here, yeah, I mean as going for the Mets,
he's still lefty, still can't get through the fifth inning
or so, but he broke out of a slump and
last time out he seemed to straighten out a lot
of things. So I would as a Met, if you're
a Mets fan, I think he should be back to normal.
Charlie Morton going for Detroit, and he was on the
trash pile earlier this season, but he's pitched very well
the last month or so. We're getting the Mets about
a one sixteen favorite here total of eight and a
half on the total, And if I'm taking a look
at this game, you've got Manea coming in with a
five point zero one ERA basically because three or four
really bad starts, three point seven six expected some bad
luck in his regard one point one four whip extension,
ninety second percent, tol walk right ninety six, strikeout right
eighty ninth. That's usually a very good package. And if
you take a look at a strikeout minus walk ratio,
we're looking at twenty five point three, which is outstanding.
So even though he's got he's gone through some struggles.
He has pitched pretty well this year. Charlie Morton five
point two five e R four point one to nine
expected one point four eight whip high is his average
is one point three two. He's in his eighteenth season
and he, like I said, you look like he was
on his way out the last couple of years. But
he's put it together in the last month or so
and he's even got his swift percentage up to seventy
four percent. It's a game myself where I do like
more and a little bit better than a lot of
people at this point. And I do like the Tiger's bullpen,
but the Mets had one of the best bullpens in baseball,
and money is probably only go four or five innings.
So the line to me looks about where it should be.
I could see taking Detroit. And you know, if the
Mets are laying like one fifteen or so, that that's
not bad if you like them. So if that tells
me that I don't have anything on this.
Speaker 4: Game, everyone, I have and MLB play out today. I
have a KBO playout already for the evening the late night,
and I have a free play up as well. I'm
sure my colleagues here already do or will later in
the day, so please go to wager talk dot com
and see what we have to offer regarding this game.
I have the two starters pretty equal as far as
rating is concerned, but Manya has absolutely shut these batters
down in his career. Granted it's only a thirty four
at bat sample size, but two six average against in
a six twenty six ops pretty good numbers. And I
got the Mets rank number one in batting right now,
where I got the Tigers rank twenty bullpen's pretty even. Uh,
but uh, Martin gets a bad rap because he's old,
but he's actually pitching a little bit better than Mania.
So I'm a little torn on this. I don't think
he's as bad as the books think, and I've never
liked Manaia, so uh, I'm kind of stuck on this one.
The Mets. The Mets are just cranking right now, though,
and Juan Soto is getting heated up. This lineup is
pretty dangerous when they're all when they're cranking on all cylinders,
So I definitely would not bet against the Mets, whether
I backed him or not. I haven't got there yet,
but if I'm going to go anyway, that would be
how I would go.
Speaker 1: I think if I was going to go anyway, here
would be the Mets as well. But I want to
point something out. I know the Tigers are going to
be playing quote unquote meaningless ball for the next month.
I think the Tigers are going to kind of be
a good bet in September because I think this is
like an open tryout for the playoffs that I don't
think the Tigers have any clue who their playoff roster
is yet, and so Sean says it's Kevin McGonagall time.
Speaker 2: I wish. I do think you'll see him at Toledo
this week.
Speaker 1: If you don't know who Kevin McGonagall is, he's probably
the best hitter in minor league baseball right now. He's
only at Double A. He's been at Double A for
like a month or two at this point. I actually
went out to Eerie to see him play. That was
why I went to that Eerie Sea Wolves game, was
to see him in Max Clark play. He is insane
and I do think I think so I was looking
at some Tiger's roster moves, it looks like and now
you can only go to twenty eight in September. I
forgot about that. You can't go to forty anymore. It's
only twenty eight. So they've purbed. They've curbed, like the
calling up the whole team. So it looks like the
Tigers are going to go with Chase Lee. So well, no,
it used to be able to expand a forty just
like you have it. Yeah, now it's twenty eight, but
they're going to call up Chase Lee, Sawyer, Gibson Long
and Justin Henry Maloy. I think you're going to see
a revolving door, and I think the Tigers are going
to play everyone, and I almost think they're going to
internally have a little competition for who's on the playoff team.
And I think it's gonna make the Tigers kind of
play good ball in September, because I think there's a
lot of internal competition for playoff spots on that team.
I don't I think I don't think they have any
clue who that twenty six seven. However many eight man
roster is for the playoffs yet. And Sean, I think
I think we'll see McGonagall get McGonagall get a crack
toward the end of the month. They would be stupid
not to if they're playing meaningless games, just see what
you got? Like, what if he comes up and and
he tears the cover off the ball, It's like, don't
you want to throw that on your playoff roster? So
I think you'll see him at some point. It's just
not gonna be today. But that is going to make
the Tigers very interesting play in my opinion, because they
might get priced as a team that's not quote unquote
doesn't care. And I think they are gonna care a
little bit. So that's I don't really have much there,
but I'm with you TV this pick. I don't love Morton.
I could see the Mets getting to him, so maybe
an over. Though, what's the total on this game?
Speaker 2: Eight and a half? I can mess with that? Is
it an eight and a half total?
Speaker 3: Brian? I have eight half to eight and a half
to the over twenty?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if I was gonna play here, it
would probably be an over because I could see the
Mets generating some offense up Martin, and I think the
Tigers are gonna U are going to hit a little
bit this month as they sort of rotate guys in
John Sis Parker Meadows will be back, Maloy won't be okay, Yeah,
I think you're gonna see them just sort of rotate up, down,
up down.
Speaker 2: They're just gonna give everyone a shot. All right, all right,
I'm gonna throw it over to to Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 1: We need a parlay leg from you, and we've only
got about four minutes left.
Speaker 2: How are you? How are you gonna? I'm sorry not I
already put out, but I have a game to suggest.
Speaker 3: No, that's okay, We're going to Bryan, so I'll get Yeah,
let me go to my earl leg. Let's take a
look at the Athletics against the Cardinals today. Got Morales
against Gray Saint Louis about a one thirty five favorite
total seven and a half to the over. And that's
a bit surprising to me that the old I mean,
Morales has been really good so far. But he's only
thrown twenty two point two innings and the only thing
he's got that's really showing is that fastball velossity in
the eighty nine percentile, and he does throw that fifty
four percent of the time. But like I said, anybody
major League Baseball can hit a fastball Sunny Gray, likes
Sunny Gray, but he's he's been struggling. I think his
last start started he did pretty well, but overall since
the All Star break, a little bit of struggles for Gray.
Four point one ninety ra three point seven three expected,
one point one eight on the whip. The reason why
I'm taking it is Kurtz hasn't played. He's hard, and
I don't the line tells me he's not going to
play again today. But still to get a seven and
a half in Saint Louis, this has got to be
the first time all season I can remember a seven
and a half there. Normally seven and a half, so
really good pitchers parks, maybe Chicago like today when the
wind's blowing in that kind of thing. But to get
a seven and a half, and you know, I don't
know if he's going to play it all he make.
Kurtz may came into the pitch hitter. I haven't seen
the latest on him, but that seems to be an
awful low number, even even without him playing. So I'm
gonna go with the over here in the Athletics and
the Cardinals game, I'm gonna go over seven and a
half minus one point fifteen and looking for eight or
more runs. It's not hard to score eight runs in baseball,
as we know.
Speaker 4: Nice we have almost twelve hundred watching live, so thank
you guys. Go to the replay and give us a
comment as well, and we will answer any questions you have.
I'll make this really brief because we're running a long
time and I don't really have a good read on
this game. As you guys know from previous shows, I
don't really like to bet games with X factors in him,
and to me, Morales is an X factor not enough
sample size. Sunny Gray is a decent home pitcher. But
actually I won my only MLB play yesterday. I won
betting against the A's. I took the Rangers first five
and I won it, But that was mainly because the
gram was on the mound and Texas bats are on fire,
but Saint Louis's bats are not. So I have every
category here going in favor of the A's, but I
just don't trust him right now, so I'm not gonna
play this game. Sonny Gray though really good walk to
strikeout ratio, but still not enough for me to bet it.
The A's are hitting a lot better than the Cardinals
bullpen's pretty equal. Sonny Gray is a good picture, So
I'm gonna stay away.
Speaker 2: I don't think you could ever go wrong betting an
A's over.
Speaker 1: At this point, you've got to even without Kurt, You've
got a lineup of guys that all have sort of
like we don't even really know what the ceiling is yet,
but it could be very good, very good, like back
to ball skill across the board. Out of the young guys,
Jacob Wilson is going to be a phenomenal hitter. Soderstrom
against any righty is someone that you want in the lineup.
So there's absolutely runs out there for the A's. But
then on the flip side, like even if Morales comes
out so last time out against the Tigers dominant, seven
shoutout innings, two hits, seven strikeouts, even if he comes
out in he does something close to that, let's say
he throws five six really good innings, you still have
to survive three innings with the A's bullpen, and they
just don't have many bullpen arms at this point. So
I feel like, you know it's priced as if here's
the thing, and this goes back to what's Brian saying
it's priced as if Morales is like a proven ace.
Speaker 2: He's not.
Speaker 1: He's been very, very good for a couple of starts,
but he's only been at the big leagues for a
few weeks, so he's not a proven ace.
Speaker 2: He's not an ace.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, like, you can't just count on him
doing what he's done the last two starts, because he's
been really good.
Speaker 2: But even if he.
Speaker 1: Were to do that, you're still probably gonna get three
innings against this A's bullpen, and they could give up
four runs at the you know, in in an inning,
like they don't have great bullpen arms. On the other side,
you get the A's lineup against Sonny Gray. They can
hit fastball, then they can score. This A's team can score.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of win you, Brian.
Speaker 1: It just doesn't seem like it's gonna be that difficult
to get to like seven and you know eight, like
eight runs. Just see, eight runs is not a huge
number to get to. So unless you unless you have
both pitchers that are just dominant, you're probably gonna have
a really good chance to hit your over so'm I
see where you're coming from there. All Right, we have
a this is, this is this would be a good
one for us. We need one of these big parlays.
And this is plus six eighty five. So in summary,
we have Marlin's money line, Blue Jay's money line, A's
Cardinals over seven and a half. That three teamer comes
out the plus six eighty five. I do have a
four I do have a four percent MLV play today.
I just haven't put the brick up yet. I will
do it after the show. And yeah, thank you for
all the we need. We need Monday Holidays more often
because anytime, no every time no one's at work, the
live chat is is popping. So thank you guys for
tuning in live and if you miss the show, as always,
heading order to the Ways You're Talking YouTube channel where
you can find it on demand. Anyone have anything else
to add before we sign off.
Speaker 4: Leave a come in and hit the light.
Speaker 3: Yeah, number one in the last three days, number two
to the last seven. But to be totally honest with you,
I don't think I'm gonna be able to get there
with anything to that. I might just pass.
Speaker 4: Number one last thirty and my MB play is up
as well.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, hope everyone enjoys the Labor Day holiday, whether.
Speaker 2: You have it off or not.
Speaker 1: I know, I'm gonna try to get some sun here
in central New York because that goes quick. Once the
sun is gone, it's gone to like April. So gotta
got to enjoy the weather here.
Speaker 4: Adam, you look like you burn like crazy.
Speaker 2: You're pretty pay Yeah, so these lights are very bright.
I am.
Speaker 1: I am Italian, though, so like I don't get like,
I don't get like burnt burnt, like I actually will
get hanned.
Speaker 2: I just don't spend that much time out like, I
gotta be honest. The heat.
Speaker 1: I'm not a big heat guy anymore. Back when I
was in my twenties, I.
Speaker 2: Was fine with it.
Speaker 1: Now, like I can't stand the sun. I'd rather be
like in the shade. I'll sit by the pool. But
I'm not like I'm not just trying to get baked
out there and the heat. Like I can't leave it
for the fall. I can't give me give me forty
fifty degrees every day, I will, I'm going to be
in heaven. I don't like two degrees, but like forty
fifty degrees in the fall New y Upstate, New York
in the fall, that's best time of year to live here,
so I'm excited for the fall. Got it all right, guys,
have a great day everyone. We'll see you guys tomorrow
nine am Eastern.
Speaker 2: For more total bases,