WEBVTT 1 00:00:21.960 --> 00:00:26.359 Hello, and welcome to Western Sieve and today's bonus author interview. 2 00:00:26.399 --> 00:00:28.879 I'm going to sit down with Phillips, Pays and O'Brien, 3 00:00:29.239 --> 00:00:31.199 and I'm going to talk about the book that comes 4 00:00:31.199 --> 00:00:35.520 out today, War and Power, Who Wins Wars and Why. 5 00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:38.359 I would love to tell you that the topic of 6 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:44.240 this book is totally irrelevant to our world today. Unfortunately, 7 00:00:44.759 --> 00:00:49.359 quite the opposite is probably true. And while I hope 8 00:00:49.600 --> 00:00:53.840 that military power can prove a deterrence rather than anything 9 00:00:53.880 --> 00:00:57.600 that we actually need to use anytime soon, I become 10 00:00:57.679 --> 00:01:00.000 less and less confident by the moment that that is 11 00:01:00.280 --> 00:01:04.239 actually in fact going to be the case. Hence, we 12 00:01:04.319 --> 00:01:07.959 turn to our subject matter, how on Earth do nations 13 00:01:08.400 --> 00:01:12.560 acquire the power necessary to deter and prosecute wars to 14 00:01:12.680 --> 00:01:17.920 their fullest and most successful conclusion. O'Brien breaks this down 15 00:01:17.959 --> 00:01:20.079 into a number of different chapters where we look at 16 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:25.000 things like leadership, society, technology, economics. We're only going to 17 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:28.200 have time to talk about a couple here today, but 18 00:01:28.439 --> 00:01:32.920 it's a very very readable first foray into the subject. 19 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:35.400 If you're new into foreign policy, or if you're new 20 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:40.159 into this idea of nations and warfare. It also has 21 00:01:40.280 --> 00:01:42.799 enough detail that for those of you who are very 22 00:01:42.879 --> 00:01:45.359 experienced in this field, this is going to be a 23 00:01:45.359 --> 00:01:47.760 good book for you to pick up as well. It's 24 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:51.519 one of those that really does have something for everyone. 25 00:01:52.120 --> 00:01:55.319 So without further ado, and as always, the link is 26 00:01:55.359 --> 00:01:57.000 in the show notes, so if you'd like to pick 27 00:01:57.079 --> 00:01:59.200 up a copy, you can just click the link. You 28 00:01:59.200 --> 00:02:00.799 can buy. You can buy wherever you want to. I 29 00:02:00.799 --> 00:02:02.920 always just pull one link in, but pick it up 30 00:02:02.959 --> 00:02:06.079 wherever you want. You'll enjoy the book a lot. It 31 00:02:06.159 --> 00:02:12.039 clocks in it somewhere right around two hundred and thirty pages, 32 00:02:12.479 --> 00:02:15.639 so it's a reasonable read if you're getting on a 33 00:02:15.639 --> 00:02:18.360 plane or something like that, but it's also good to 34 00:02:18.439 --> 00:02:22.240 just pick up and put it back down. So without 35 00:02:22.360 --> 00:02:25.240 further ado, then, and after these quick messages, let's jump 36 00:02:25.280 --> 00:02:30.680 into the interview. All right, and welcome back. As I 37 00:02:30.840 --> 00:02:35.960 mentioned before, I'm sitting down today with historian Phillips Payson O'Brien, 38 00:02:36.039 --> 00:02:39.159 and we are talking about his most recent book, which 39 00:02:39.240 --> 00:02:43.639 is War and Power, Who Wins Wars and Why. It's 40 00:02:43.639 --> 00:02:47.840 an excellent, concise and really really readable. As I talked 41 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:51.879 about in the introduction, overview of a concept and some 42 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:54.199 ideas that are probably of a lot of relevance to 43 00:02:54.280 --> 00:02:58.919 the world right now unfortunately, which is what does one 44 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:01.240 need to do to be success in combat and or 45 00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:05.039 maybe deterring that in the first place. I want to 46 00:03:05.080 --> 00:03:07.879 start out by asking about something that you bring up 47 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:09.800 right away in the start of the book. You talk 48 00:03:09.840 --> 00:03:13.439 about how power, both in times of peace and war 49 00:03:13.960 --> 00:03:18.080 depends very much on what you say, the ability to design, build, 50 00:03:18.199 --> 00:03:20.520 and manipulate. And you can't see this, but I'm doing 51 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:23.879 air quotes stuff, and I was hoping it could start 52 00:03:23.879 --> 00:03:26.159 by explaining to the audience what you mean by that 53 00:03:26.479 --> 00:03:28.319 and why it's so important. 54 00:03:28.439 --> 00:03:30.960 Well, one of the things I wanted to say to 55 00:03:31.000 --> 00:03:35.000 people is not to provide a theory which explains everything, 56 00:03:35.199 --> 00:03:38.439 but to provide a framework to understand what makes the 57 00:03:38.479 --> 00:03:41.800 state powerful and then how that power might interact in war, 58 00:03:42.479 --> 00:03:44.919 because I didn't like people having theory like these are 59 00:03:44.960 --> 00:03:48.199 great powers. These are not great powers, and that means something. 60 00:03:48.280 --> 00:03:50.080 I don't know what that means. People would say that 61 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:53.479 Russia is a great power, ukrained not or I'm a realist. 62 00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:56.280 I have this theory which explains how power works, and 63 00:03:56.280 --> 00:03:58.919 then none of these things ever seem to work. So 64 00:03:59.000 --> 00:04:01.879 I sort of say what makes a state powerful in 65 00:04:02.000 --> 00:04:05.759 terms of the interaction of power, particularly in war, And 66 00:04:06.639 --> 00:04:08.520 I came up with sort of what you might say, 67 00:04:08.599 --> 00:04:13.039 a basic what you need to do, and then how 68 00:04:13.120 --> 00:04:17.000 does that shaped. The basic thing you need is economic 69 00:04:17.040 --> 00:04:21.319 and technological power. If you're not an economic and technological power, 70 00:04:21.759 --> 00:04:24.759 you're never going to be a great military power or 71 00:04:24.759 --> 00:04:26.720 win war. So just you know that's not going to 72 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:30.639 work in state to state wars. That's different from SAT counterinsurgencies, 73 00:04:31.439 --> 00:04:33.920 but in state to state wars you need the ability 74 00:04:34.079 --> 00:04:37.759 to make stuff, as I said, because when you go 75 00:04:37.879 --> 00:04:40.480 into a war, what you have at the start of 76 00:04:40.519 --> 00:04:42.560 the war is going to go. It's going to be 77 00:04:42.639 --> 00:04:49.079 eaten up amazingly quickly and shockingly short time periods, far 78 00:04:49.199 --> 00:04:52.160 far quicker than people think. So it's your ability than 79 00:04:52.240 --> 00:04:55.439 to make new stuff which will determine the course of 80 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:59.399 the war and well you can fight. So that's the foundation. Now, 81 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:03.399 not everybody who can make stuff is going to be 82 00:05:03.439 --> 00:05:06.600 a great power, the powerful state, because then you need 83 00:05:06.639 --> 00:05:09.560 the other factors to work with that, and that's your leadership, 84 00:05:09.639 --> 00:05:14.600 your society, your political structure, your allies, these different elements 85 00:05:14.680 --> 00:05:17.560 all need to work together. But if you can't make stuff. 86 00:05:17.639 --> 00:05:20.040 You're not even going to get to that point. 87 00:05:21.600 --> 00:05:25.360 Yeah, And I suppose just for reference in for those 88 00:05:25.360 --> 00:05:27.040 who don't have the book in front of them, and 89 00:05:27.079 --> 00:05:29.720 since it came out today you probably don't. But these 90 00:05:29.759 --> 00:05:34.079 are all topics when we're talking about economic, technological strength, leadership, society, 91 00:05:34.079 --> 00:05:37.439 and structure. These are components of the book that you 92 00:05:37.560 --> 00:05:40.199 walk through one at a time, and I think that 93 00:05:40.199 --> 00:05:43.079 that's what really gives it its kind of overall structure. 94 00:05:43.839 --> 00:05:46.279 One of the topics that I wanted to ask about 95 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.519 that's kind of early on in the book as well. 96 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:54.279 You start to talk about population and land, which I 97 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:56.920 have you know, our audience, you know, we love, we 98 00:05:56.959 --> 00:06:01.000 love ourselves some classical realm in this podcast, and we 99 00:06:01.079 --> 00:06:03.720 love some of those things. And I think so a 100 00:06:03.720 --> 00:06:06.279 lot of times when we focus on societies of the past, 101 00:06:06.319 --> 00:06:09.560 you think about population and land as extremely important when 102 00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:14.240 it comes to fighting and prosecuting a war successfully. You argue, 103 00:06:14.480 --> 00:06:17.839 in especially in the modern context, that population and land 104 00:06:17.839 --> 00:06:22.480 play limited roles in determining actually a country's power. Why 105 00:06:22.600 --> 00:06:26.319 is that and how recent of a phenomenon is that? 106 00:06:27.199 --> 00:06:28.839 Yeah, I mean the book itself, I mean it is 107 00:06:29.079 --> 00:06:32.319 from nineteenth century today you might say, I make references 108 00:06:32.360 --> 00:06:34.839 back to the Napoleonic era, so I'm not trying to 109 00:06:34.839 --> 00:06:37.560 say throughout all of human history, but it is worth 110 00:06:37.560 --> 00:06:39.560 noting the United States has never been the most popular 111 00:06:39.959 --> 00:06:43.439 country in the world, and in fact nowhere close to 112 00:06:43.480 --> 00:06:46.199 being the most populous country in the world. Nowadays it's 113 00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:50.480 you know, it's one fifth the size of China, or 114 00:06:50.639 --> 00:06:54.600 you know, significantly smaller than India. So the idea that 115 00:06:54.720 --> 00:06:57.839 you know, just being large is what makes you powerful 116 00:06:58.000 --> 00:06:59.920 seems to me a little bit off in terms of 117 00:07:00.040 --> 00:07:03.240 population and even in greater counterput, Russia geographically is the 118 00:07:03.319 --> 00:07:06.279 largest country in the world, but it's certainly not the 119 00:07:06.279 --> 00:07:10.079 most powerful. So you know, if if you can translate 120 00:07:10.160 --> 00:07:14.920 your large population into your ability to make things and 121 00:07:15.000 --> 00:07:19.079 be economically and technologically productive, then you can be a 122 00:07:19.079 --> 00:07:22.639 great power. But just saying your big inn and of 123 00:07:22.680 --> 00:07:26.759 itself is not not that useful. That you know, who 124 00:07:26.759 --> 00:07:29.480 are the biggest countries in the world today, Well, you 125 00:07:29.639 --> 00:07:33.399 have you have India now, which is the biggest, then China, 126 00:07:33.480 --> 00:07:37.720 then the US, but then countries like Indonesia or Pakistan 127 00:07:38.079 --> 00:07:41.399 are incredibly large countries for hundreds of millions of people, 128 00:07:42.000 --> 00:07:44.079 and in and of itself, that doesn't make them the 129 00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:47.079 powers that you would think for those populations. 130 00:07:48.879 --> 00:07:51.360 So and I am actually kind of I've always wondered 131 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:54.759 about this in the context of modern warfare, and I 132 00:07:54.800 --> 00:07:56.360 don't even know if this is something that you could 133 00:07:56.360 --> 00:07:59.279 potentially speak on, But to me, there are times that 134 00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:04.399 I look the war in Ukraine, for example, and just 135 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:09.279 the efficacy of drones and you know, non personnel occupied 136 00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:13.920 military operations, and I do start to wonder, is there 137 00:08:14.120 --> 00:08:16.879 is there a point where a large population in particular 138 00:08:17.000 --> 00:08:21.279 actually starts to become more of a liability in certain circumstances, 139 00:08:21.279 --> 00:08:24.000 because if you have a large population, you you first 140 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:27.040 of all have to defend it, right and second of all, 141 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:30.399 that population is going to consume resources, which then you know, 142 00:08:30.560 --> 00:08:32.879 you kind of think of like almost like a siege mentality. 143 00:08:32.919 --> 00:08:35.720 I suppose, you know, going back to the classical world 144 00:08:35.759 --> 00:08:38.240 where it's like you have a lot of non combatants 145 00:08:38.279 --> 00:08:40.600 in the city that's under siege, and that's they're going 146 00:08:40.679 --> 00:08:42.919 to consume resources at the same rate as the people 147 00:08:42.919 --> 00:08:45.519 who are defending it. You know, is there any way 148 00:08:45.600 --> 00:08:48.399 that we can make similar analogies today or is that 149 00:08:48.519 --> 00:08:51.080 just is that too far of an extrapolation. 150 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:53.080 It's not too far. Mean, there are examples of that. 151 00:08:53.120 --> 00:08:57.440 I think China in the Second World War incredibly. I 152 00:08:57.440 --> 00:08:59.440 think might have still been the most populous country in 153 00:08:59.480 --> 00:09:02.120 the world China and the Second World War, and yet 154 00:09:02.399 --> 00:09:05.320 its population is in some ways a hindrance as much 155 00:09:05.320 --> 00:09:07.080 as a help, because it's got to try and feed 156 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:09.720 it and keep it going, and it's not producing a 157 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:13.039 lot in the way of military equipment. So that is 158 00:09:13.080 --> 00:09:16.320 an example. We're having a very large population. I mean, 159 00:09:16.519 --> 00:09:18.559 we were talking about Rome earlier, and I don't want 160 00:09:18.600 --> 00:09:23.720 to claim I'm a classicist, but Rome's shape became very 161 00:09:23.759 --> 00:09:28.159 difficult to defend the size of the Roman Empire, with 162 00:09:28.279 --> 00:09:31.440 this enormous land border that stretched all the way from 163 00:09:31.440 --> 00:09:35.759 Holland to North Africa. Yeah, and it was actually now 164 00:09:37.080 --> 00:09:39.960 it was incredibly difficult to defend that when you started 165 00:09:40.039 --> 00:09:42.600 having the incursions all the way around it. So the 166 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:46.759 size that you have, if it's not matched with a 167 00:09:46.840 --> 00:09:50.279 population that can make things well led and well motivated, 168 00:09:51.279 --> 00:09:54.399 is a real problem because you're being pushed and pulled 169 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:56.480 in many directions to try and hold onto it. You 170 00:09:56.480 --> 00:09:59.960 could say that's also with European empires. The European empire 171 00:10:00.200 --> 00:10:03.000 just became the most impossible to defend because they were 172 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:07.320 being pushed and pulled throughout their many different constituent parts. 173 00:10:08.120 --> 00:10:11.399 So I mean, a nice, unitary state with defensible borders. 174 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:13.960 It's flipped on its head. Actually, it's an interesting point. 175 00:10:14.039 --> 00:10:16.960 I'm thinking about it. The United States great advantage, great 176 00:10:17.000 --> 00:10:22.559 advantage for the past one hundred and sixty years has 177 00:10:22.639 --> 00:10:25.799 been it's not had a threat on its borders. The 178 00:10:26.159 --> 00:10:30.080 United States has been this place where there were Canada 179 00:10:30.279 --> 00:10:32.399 was not a threat in any reasonable way. After the 180 00:10:32.440 --> 00:10:36.440 Mexican American more, Mexico was not really a threat in 181 00:10:36.480 --> 00:10:39.080 any way. And because the United States didn't have threats 182 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:42.120 on its borders, it was sort of quite contained. It 183 00:10:42.159 --> 00:10:47.639 had massive strategic advantages. So you could say, your borders 184 00:10:47.679 --> 00:10:51.960 matter greatly if they're cohesive and defensible and non threatening 185 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:55.519 versus large and threatening. 186 00:10:55.840 --> 00:10:58.360 Yeah, it's interesting. It's almost kind of like, if you 187 00:10:58.399 --> 00:11:00.360 want to go back to the old board game risk, 188 00:11:00.519 --> 00:11:02.360 It's right, it's like, where are your borders and who 189 00:11:02.399 --> 00:11:04.919 are your borders with? You know, who are your borders 190 00:11:04.960 --> 00:11:08.159 with matters a lot. You know, we have the United 191 00:11:08.200 --> 00:11:10.399 States has borders with Canada and Mexico, which you point 192 00:11:10.440 --> 00:11:12.879 out you since the Mexican American War, those borders have. 193 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:14.240 By large been quiet. 194 00:11:14.480 --> 00:11:16.639 You know, you could talk about maybe a little insurgency 195 00:11:16.639 --> 00:11:20.519 around World War One, but you know that's that's strange, 196 00:11:20.639 --> 00:11:21.000 I know, what. 197 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:23.240 A risk wanted to go for Asia because it was 198 00:11:23.240 --> 00:11:26.360 impossible to defend right everyone when you start with going 199 00:11:26.399 --> 00:11:30.279 something like Australasia or South America because it's only got 200 00:11:30.279 --> 00:11:32.720 one or two borders, and that becomes you a better 201 00:11:32.759 --> 00:11:34.039 place to start building up. 202 00:11:35.120 --> 00:11:37.039 Yeah, you kind of think about those choke points. And 203 00:11:37.080 --> 00:11:39.039 then Rome is a great example here where yeah, it 204 00:11:39.080 --> 00:11:42.360 has this enormous territory, but it doesn't particularly have defensible 205 00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:44.639 borders in a lot of ways. 206 00:11:45.320 --> 00:11:46.000 And it's I've. 207 00:11:45.840 --> 00:11:47.360 Always kind of wondered about it, you know, in the 208 00:11:47.360 --> 00:11:49.759 context of the First World War two, because you think 209 00:11:49.799 --> 00:11:53.159 about you know, you think about like a country like 210 00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:57.720 the British Empire. You know, it has on paper these 211 00:11:57.759 --> 00:12:02.840 incredible vast reserves of and power, right because the Commonwealth stretches, 212 00:12:03.200 --> 00:12:06.360 you know, to to India and Australia. There's all these 213 00:12:06.720 --> 00:12:09.399 areas that you would you would think the British are 214 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:12.679 able to draw from, but that doesn't ever seem to 215 00:12:12.840 --> 00:12:16.399 really happen to a large extent in the war. 216 00:12:16.759 --> 00:12:20.440 You know, First World War happens. You know, you can 217 00:12:20.480 --> 00:12:22.679 said the British Empire gets at the British got a 218 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:24.320 lot of support from their empire in the First and 219 00:12:24.320 --> 00:12:26.559 Second World War. It's just the empire decides it doesn't 220 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:29.480 want to stay, uh, and the British can't fight to 221 00:12:29.600 --> 00:12:32.080 keep it. So it's a real sort of interesting question 222 00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:35.720 on that that they certainly do tap the empire quite 223 00:12:35.759 --> 00:12:39.039 successfully in the First and Second World War for resources. 224 00:12:40.080 --> 00:12:42.679 Right right, right, you know, And but I also think 225 00:12:42.679 --> 00:12:44.519 that there's to an extent, like a war on paper 226 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:46.759 is different than a war in real life. Right, you know, 227 00:12:46.799 --> 00:12:49.679 you have your your Ledger sheet and that tells you 228 00:12:49.720 --> 00:12:52.080 who you think should win. But that's not always the case, 229 00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:54.840 right And then I suppose even the American Revolution is 230 00:12:55.000 --> 00:12:58.679 a pretty decent example of that. But I you know, 231 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:00.759 I want to turn to this question that of economic 232 00:13:00.840 --> 00:13:02.879 So if we're going to say, well, population doesn't play 233 00:13:03.159 --> 00:13:07.120 a major direct role in determining a country's power, well 234 00:13:07.159 --> 00:13:10.519 what about GDP and economic power in that case? 235 00:13:10.840 --> 00:13:13.840 Yeah, I mean it's a combination of economic power, productivity 236 00:13:14.399 --> 00:13:19.120 plus technological advancement. I mean that if you're a country 237 00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:22.120 that's making is most of your money from a resource extraction, 238 00:13:23.480 --> 00:13:27.679 you might be very rich in a per capita GDP way. Yeah, 239 00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:30.480 if you're just pumping oil out of the ground or 240 00:13:30.559 --> 00:13:35.000 extracting minerals and selling them overseas. But that's going to 241 00:13:35.080 --> 00:13:37.919 also limit your power in certain ways too, because you 242 00:13:37.919 --> 00:13:41.320 can't make things out of that money. You have to 243 00:13:41.360 --> 00:13:43.600 buy everything. And by the way, the end of that, 244 00:13:43.600 --> 00:13:45.559 if you have to end up buying everything, you're going 245 00:13:45.639 --> 00:13:48.919 to run into problems because if you can't make it yourself, 246 00:13:48.960 --> 00:13:51.200 you'll run through it, and then you'll have to just 247 00:13:51.240 --> 00:13:53.799 buy more, buy more, and you're going to be held hostage. 248 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:56.440 You're not going to have any strategic autonomy, which by 249 00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:58.720 a lot of states are realizing that now and trying 250 00:13:58.720 --> 00:14:02.360 to actually set up big cocted supply lines. So I 251 00:14:02.440 --> 00:14:07.639 just think in terms of looking at what you have 252 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:10.279 in terms of people and what you can do in 253 00:14:10.360 --> 00:14:14.200 terms of your economy. It's not just being rich, it's 254 00:14:14.240 --> 00:14:19.559 being technologically advanced and having the ability to make material 255 00:14:19.679 --> 00:14:22.879 out of that technological advancement, which, by the way, if 256 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:25.519 you look and the book talks about it, if you 257 00:14:25.559 --> 00:14:28.840 look at the possibility of, say a US China war. Now, 258 00:14:29.759 --> 00:14:32.480 the problem in the US is going to have is 259 00:14:32.519 --> 00:14:35.399 that it can't make a lot. The manufacturing base of 260 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:39.320 the United States is much less than that of China, 261 00:14:39.399 --> 00:14:42.000 and the Chinese are making eighty percent of the world's 262 00:14:42.080 --> 00:14:46.679 drones much more, has a much greater manufacturing capacity of 263 00:14:46.720 --> 00:14:49.080 military equipment than the United States right now in terms 264 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:53.360 of shipbuildings, say, and so the US will have to 265 00:14:53.639 --> 00:14:55.559 try and find some way to make up for that 266 00:14:55.600 --> 00:14:59.120 inability to match the Chinese and manufacturing. 267 00:15:00.039 --> 00:15:02.240 Well, just kind of taking that example, then let's just 268 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:05.320 imagine a scenario and maybe not it doesn't have to 269 00:15:05.320 --> 00:15:07.480 be a direct war between America and China. But how 270 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:11.080 could a country like the United States make up that difference, 271 00:15:11.519 --> 00:15:14.000 like in different ways? Like what would you have to 272 00:15:14.039 --> 00:15:16.120 would you would it be? I mean, let's just assume. 273 00:15:16.200 --> 00:15:19.159 I mean, obviously, a manufacturing base is difficult to conjure 274 00:15:19.159 --> 00:15:21.720 out of thin air. You know, it's not somethings that 275 00:15:21.799 --> 00:15:26.039 they can do overnight, right, But so what our other 276 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:28.799 way is that a country then can compensate for one 277 00:15:28.840 --> 00:15:29.840 of those deficiencies. 278 00:15:30.159 --> 00:15:33.000 Well, I mean you could start now, I mean, if 279 00:15:33.000 --> 00:15:34.679 you end up starting a war and you don't have 280 00:15:34.679 --> 00:15:37.600 a manufacturing base, there's very little you can do in 281 00:15:37.639 --> 00:15:39.360 the short term. So it's a question of what you 282 00:15:39.399 --> 00:15:43.600 can do to start preparing your manufacturing base or strategic 283 00:15:43.720 --> 00:15:47.799 you're protecting your strategic industries. Now, for instance, one of 284 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:50.559 the most shocking things is how the United States has 285 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:54.879 basically not become a shipbuilding nation. Yeah, the Second World War, 286 00:15:54.919 --> 00:15:57.200 the United States just produce more shipping than the rest 287 00:15:57.240 --> 00:16:00.559 of the world combined, just produced massive amounts of shipping, 288 00:16:02.679 --> 00:16:05.720 and the United States remained a major shipbuilding nation after 289 00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:08.519 the Second World War. Now, the United States hardly makes 290 00:16:08.559 --> 00:16:12.960 a ship. I mean really, it's you could count on 291 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:16.840 a hand the number of non military ships the United 292 00:16:16.879 --> 00:16:19.720 States makes in a year. The Chinese make half the 293 00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:23.399 world shipping. So the United States, if it doesn't have 294 00:16:23.440 --> 00:16:25.679 a shipbuilding industry, it's going to be very hard pressed 295 00:16:25.720 --> 00:16:28.679 to do it. Now, what could the United States do well? Actually, 296 00:16:28.960 --> 00:16:32.080 the two things that it does have are its allies 297 00:16:32.120 --> 00:16:35.200 are the second and third largest shipbuilding states in the world, 298 00:16:35.240 --> 00:16:39.120 and that's the Japanese and the South Koreans, So they 299 00:16:39.120 --> 00:16:41.240 do have allies with that. Now that means the United 300 00:16:41.240 --> 00:16:43.720 States actually has to understand the value of allies, and 301 00:16:43.879 --> 00:16:46.759 right now I'm not sure the United States does understand 302 00:16:46.799 --> 00:16:49.639 the value of allies and how it could tap them. 303 00:16:49.679 --> 00:16:52.360 But without allies, the United States basically would go into 304 00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:54.600 a war without much of a shipbuilding industry, and it's 305 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:56.879 hard to see how they would make one off in 306 00:16:56.919 --> 00:16:59.039 the course of the war if they don't start preparing 307 00:16:59.039 --> 00:16:59.600 ahead of time. 308 00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:05.640 Well what about technology? What if the United States instead 309 00:17:05.680 --> 00:17:07.519 were to say, well, instead of putting our eggs in 310 00:17:07.559 --> 00:17:09.319 the in the basket of we're going to develop our 311 00:17:09.759 --> 00:17:13.279 our essentially our manufacturing base, let's just try to get 312 00:17:13.279 --> 00:17:17.000 to generative AI first. And is there can you get 313 00:17:17.039 --> 00:17:18.400 to a point? Of course? The other thing that's in 314 00:17:18.480 --> 00:17:20.400 the back of my mind as you're talking is does 315 00:17:20.440 --> 00:17:23.519 any of this matter because the United States has nuclear weapons? 316 00:17:24.079 --> 00:17:26.200 You know? And so does any of it matter at all? 317 00:17:26.279 --> 00:17:28.839 Because you know, you're in a scenario where the United 318 00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:31.119 States could and no one has, of course since the 319 00:17:31.160 --> 00:17:34.440 Second World War, But the United States could in theory 320 00:17:34.519 --> 00:17:37.599 simply say we're just gonna We're just gonna deploy our 321 00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:42.319 nuclear weapons. And that's essentially the great balancing Like, is 322 00:17:42.640 --> 00:17:44.680 there a fair argument there us? 323 00:17:44.759 --> 00:17:46.599 I mean, I just can't imagine the US would ever 324 00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:50.359 use nuclear weapons of war against China. To begin with, one, 325 00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:54.160 there is a far greater disincentive to use nuclear weapons 326 00:17:54.200 --> 00:17:59.519 than say, war gamers and nuclear theorists have understood that 327 00:17:59.720 --> 00:18:02.440 use it the nuclear weapon is a catastrophic decision. We 328 00:18:02.480 --> 00:18:05.759 have all these war games which end up in nuclear exchanges. Well, 329 00:18:05.799 --> 00:18:08.519 if you were looking at what should Russia should have done, 330 00:18:08.519 --> 00:18:12.119 according to a lot of wargames, Russia should have gone 331 00:18:12.200 --> 00:18:15.880 nuclear by now, all right, Once the Ukrainians attacked Crimea, 332 00:18:15.880 --> 00:18:18.039 they should have gone nuclear. Once the Ukrainians fought back, 333 00:18:18.079 --> 00:18:21.960 they should have gone attacked Crymea with nuclear weapons, because 334 00:18:22.039 --> 00:18:25.640 Russia has nuclear weapons and Ukraine doesn't. But what's interesting 335 00:18:25.720 --> 00:18:29.039 is Russia hasn't used nuclear weapons because the decision to 336 00:18:29.119 --> 00:18:35.559 do that is far more, far more difficult than people 337 00:18:35.640 --> 00:18:40.799 understood before. You are really changing so many things and 338 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:45.920 probably destroying the international system as constructed. So if there's 339 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:48.160 say a war between the US and China, and what's 340 00:18:48.200 --> 00:18:50.839 it most likely to be about, say Taiwan or the 341 00:18:50.880 --> 00:18:53.640 South China Sea, well sor it's not going to use 342 00:18:53.720 --> 00:18:57.079 nuclear weapons on Taiwan wants to take Taiwan, doesn't want 343 00:18:57.119 --> 00:19:00.839 to like radiate Taiwan because it's actually close to China 344 00:19:00.920 --> 00:19:06.039 and the whole point is to force reunification. So the 345 00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:08.519 Chinese and the Chinese, by the way, have a relatively 346 00:19:08.720 --> 00:19:13.960 low priority for nuclear weapons and their strategic arsenal that 347 00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:17.200 they do have nuclear weapons, but compared to say, what 348 00:19:17.240 --> 00:19:19.880 they could have built over the past thirty years, they've 349 00:19:19.880 --> 00:19:22.839 been on the whole going at a modest pace in 350 00:19:22.880 --> 00:19:25.240 building nuclear weapons. So it's hard to look at the 351 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:28.880 Chinese and say they're going to use nuclear weapons, and 352 00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:31.039 that means the United States would have to use nuclear 353 00:19:31.039 --> 00:19:33.079 weapons about a war in Taiwan and a war in 354 00:19:33.119 --> 00:19:36.640 the South China Sea. I find that very difficult. I 355 00:19:36.720 --> 00:19:39.240 just can't see why they would do that. I mean, 356 00:19:39.240 --> 00:19:42.720 it's not an existential war for the USA. It's not 357 00:19:42.920 --> 00:19:47.079 US territory that's being attacked. The US using nuclear weapons 358 00:19:47.160 --> 00:19:50.799 for Taiwan right now, the US government isn't even pledged 359 00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:53.680 to fight for Taiwan. I think that's very important. The 360 00:19:53.720 --> 00:19:57.599 Taiwan is not a formal US ally that the US 361 00:19:57.640 --> 00:20:03.440 has promised to defend Taiwanese territorial aegrity. So I don't 362 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:05.440 think the nuclear it's more that the US would just 363 00:20:05.480 --> 00:20:08.319 not fight. That's more likely than the use of nuclear 364 00:20:08.359 --> 00:20:11.720 weapons that the US just decides Heck, it's not really 365 00:20:11.799 --> 00:20:16.079 our area of concern, it's a long way away. China 366 00:20:16.160 --> 00:20:18.839 is much closer, China is more powerful in this area, 367 00:20:19.000 --> 00:20:21.160 so it's not worth it for us to go to war. 368 00:20:21.680 --> 00:20:24.039 That's a far more likely scenario than the use of 369 00:20:24.119 --> 00:20:25.000 nuclear weapons. 370 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:31.079 I'm kind of curious, then, what the value of possessing 371 00:20:31.160 --> 00:20:35.559 nuclear weapons is. You know, if if they're simply not 372 00:20:35.799 --> 00:20:39.799 going to be used, then then what's the purpose of 373 00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:43.319 continuing to produce them at all? I mean, is there 374 00:20:44.200 --> 00:20:46.759 is it a technology that, because it is simply so 375 00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:52.119 powerful from a practical standpoint, is not usable in a conflict? 376 00:20:52.200 --> 00:20:54.599 And then why does why do we not talk about 377 00:20:54.599 --> 00:20:57.680 AI or artificial generative artificial intelligence the same way because 378 00:20:57.680 --> 00:21:00.079 we don't know the power yet? I mean, like, what 379 00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:02.200 what is like, what's the distinction there? 380 00:21:02.400 --> 00:21:05.079 Well, in nuclear weapons, they do play, I mean they 381 00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:08.920 have given Russian massive advantages in this war. By the 382 00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:12.000 Russians threatening the use of nuclear weapons for the first 383 00:21:12.079 --> 00:21:15.880 few years regularly. That led to much slower delivery of 384 00:21:15.880 --> 00:21:19.680 weapons to Ukraine and much less advanced systems so that 385 00:21:19.880 --> 00:21:25.240 Ukraine supporters were definitely deterred against giving Ukraine a lot 386 00:21:25.279 --> 00:21:28.640 of advanced weaponry, a lot of ranged weaponry because they 387 00:21:28.640 --> 00:21:31.480 were worried about a Russian nuclear response. So in fact, 388 00:21:31.559 --> 00:21:34.000 nuclear weapons played a great deal of advantage and have 389 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:38.799 helped shape the war in Russia's interest far more than Ukraine's. 390 00:21:38.799 --> 00:21:40.839 And we can see that, we can see how that 391 00:21:40.839 --> 00:21:45.200 that really mattered that that because Ukraine didn't have nuclear weapons, 392 00:21:45.240 --> 00:21:47.680 in some ways it was treated like a second class citizen. 393 00:21:49.000 --> 00:21:52.400 So there's there's that they have the threatened ability, which 394 00:21:52.440 --> 00:21:54.839 is real. And the second thing is they are the 395 00:21:54.920 --> 00:22:00.279 ultimate you might say, territorial integrity weapon. That you there's 396 00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:03.680 a difference between a war in the South China Sea 397 00:22:03.720 --> 00:22:07.279 for the US than a war if California is attacked. Now, 398 00:22:07.279 --> 00:22:09.759 if California is attack then you might want to say, Okay, 399 00:22:09.759 --> 00:22:12.880 we need nuclear weapons. Is a deterrent to that. So 400 00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:15.960 I don't think nuclear weapons are are right. In fact, 401 00:22:16.039 --> 00:22:18.640 I think we're actually going to be going into, unfortunately 402 00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:22.440 now nuclear proliferation period. I think that's where we're heading 403 00:22:23.240 --> 00:22:26.720 because people have seen the advantages that Russia accrued through 404 00:22:26.720 --> 00:22:30.119 having nuclear weapons, and so many states are going to 405 00:22:30.119 --> 00:22:33.039 be considering that themselves in certain advanced to israel Is 406 00:22:33.079 --> 00:22:35.880 are crude through having nuclear weapons, and so I think 407 00:22:35.920 --> 00:22:39.039 there will be more a greater incentive for states to 408 00:22:39.079 --> 00:22:42.279 develop nuclear weapons in the coming years, and that's more likely. 409 00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:44.799 The situation is sort of the spread of nuclear weapons. 410 00:22:44.480 --> 00:22:48.559 Now AI. The interesting thing for AI, I mean I 411 00:22:48.680 --> 00:22:53.400 prefer in this case autonomous systems over AI when it 412 00:22:53.480 --> 00:22:57.839 comes to nuclear weapon or weapons as a whole. The 413 00:22:57.880 --> 00:23:02.400 next sort of real leap forward for autonomous systems is 414 00:23:02.440 --> 00:23:04.680 fully autonomous systems that you can just send out a 415 00:23:04.720 --> 00:23:08.440 mass and they will decide what to attack. If anyone 416 00:23:08.440 --> 00:23:11.359 can get to that stage, that is a massive advantage 417 00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:14.039 no one. The Ukrainians and Russians are by the way 418 00:23:14.079 --> 00:23:16.680 working on these systems, but they're still very difficult, almost 419 00:23:16.680 --> 00:23:19.319 impossible to program efficiently because you have to have the 420 00:23:19.359 --> 00:23:21.839 ability of the system to identify a target, make sure 421 00:23:21.839 --> 00:23:23.640 it's not being spoofed, to make sure it's an actual 422 00:23:23.720 --> 00:23:27.079 enemy target, and then actually decide to attack on its own. 423 00:23:27.400 --> 00:23:29.359 All right, But a lot of people working on this, 424 00:23:30.319 --> 00:23:33.319 and if different sides could actually come up with you know, 425 00:23:33.519 --> 00:23:35.480 and no one has, but if some side could come 426 00:23:35.599 --> 00:23:38.279 up with a fully autonomous weapon that they can make 427 00:23:38.359 --> 00:23:40.599 up in mass you know, the Ukraine's going to make 428 00:23:40.720 --> 00:23:44.119 aiming for eight million drones visit next year or something. 429 00:23:44.720 --> 00:23:46.640 You know, if you could make a million drones that 430 00:23:46.720 --> 00:23:51.000 are autonomously directed, that's a really empowerful weapon. You won't 431 00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:53.279 lose any soldiers. You'll just send these things up and 432 00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:57.319 they'll actually kill massive amounts of the other side. So 433 00:23:57.400 --> 00:24:01.079 I think that's the AI advantage of someone can take over, 434 00:24:01.440 --> 00:24:06.000 you know, real autonomy and make that in mass We're 435 00:24:06.039 --> 00:24:10.559 not there yet. There's issues of power and computing capability, 436 00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:13.440 but who knows if there won't be a breakthrough going forward. 437 00:24:15.799 --> 00:24:18.519 It's interesting. I'm still wondering about the difference though, because 438 00:24:18.640 --> 00:24:21.519 I'm imagining a scenario where a country is able to 439 00:24:21.559 --> 00:24:25.279 develop autonomous weapons systems and send it out and that'll 440 00:24:25.359 --> 00:24:28.079 kill a million people. Now, but now it comes down 441 00:24:28.119 --> 00:24:30.960 to okay, well, now, what's the difference between executing that 442 00:24:31.039 --> 00:24:34.160 and executing a nuclear strike, which we've all sort of 443 00:24:34.480 --> 00:24:38.039 decided apparently as a civilization, as a human civilization is 444 00:24:38.079 --> 00:24:39.279 off limits, like. 445 00:24:39.880 --> 00:24:43.799 Because it's all radioactive, Okay, that's different, Yeah, you know, 446 00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:47.000 I mean, it's a horrible the nuclear weapons have the 447 00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:51.240 long term poisoning that you can send out a million 448 00:24:51.319 --> 00:24:55.160 drones in Ukraine and you'll destroy one hundred thousand soldiers 449 00:24:55.160 --> 00:24:57.359 and many tanks and the vehicles and people do not 450 00:24:57.480 --> 00:25:01.559 react the same as nuclear weapons because it doesn't have radiotivity. Uh, 451 00:25:01.599 --> 00:25:03.960 and that seems to be the different I mean, what 452 00:25:03.960 --> 00:25:07.480 what what the difference is? Nuclear weapons is the opposite. 453 00:25:07.559 --> 00:25:10.720 It's not like targeting one specific thing, it's the destruction 454 00:25:10.839 --> 00:25:15.799 of a massive area and within that massive area now 455 00:25:15.799 --> 00:25:17.640 the really scary thing. And if you gave new made 456 00:25:17.720 --> 00:25:21.759 nuclear weapons autonomous, which was actually the the plot of 457 00:25:21.799 --> 00:25:25.319 the Matthew Broderick and Ali Sheety film War Games from 458 00:25:25.319 --> 00:25:29.440 when I was very young, was actually about autonomous nuclear weapons, 459 00:25:29.799 --> 00:25:31.960 and they set up a system where, you know, an 460 00:25:31.960 --> 00:25:34.799 autonomous an AI had the ability to decide when to 461 00:25:34.880 --> 00:25:37.559 launch or not, and that AI seemed to get spoofed 462 00:25:38.759 --> 00:25:40.720 and almost launched. Now. I don't know if anyone's going 463 00:25:40.799 --> 00:25:43.960 to go to that, hopefully not in my lifetime. And 464 00:25:44.200 --> 00:25:46.519 I would be desperately worried if we did go to 465 00:25:46.559 --> 00:25:49.440 autonomous nuclear weapons. But that's not to say it won't happen. 466 00:25:51.119 --> 00:25:54.079 Yeah, to an extent. It's also the one of the 467 00:25:54.079 --> 00:25:56.960 plots of you know, the Second Terminator film. So like 468 00:25:57.000 --> 00:25:59.640 there's there's a lot, there's a lot of science fiction 469 00:25:59.720 --> 00:26:01.680 that's play today. But what's sad is how close to 470 00:26:01.839 --> 00:26:05.160 reality some of the science fiction is coming. You talk 471 00:26:05.200 --> 00:26:07.720 about when it comes to the creation of technological strength 472 00:26:07.759 --> 00:26:11.400 and military power. This idea of relative power balances that 473 00:26:11.720 --> 00:26:14.880 I actually think is very very important for UNF and 474 00:26:14.880 --> 00:26:17.200 it's something I talk about a lot as I'm teaching 475 00:26:17.240 --> 00:26:19.160 as well. I wonder if you could explain what you 476 00:26:19.240 --> 00:26:21.920 mean by that and why that matters so much. 477 00:26:22.759 --> 00:26:25.559 Well, I mean, let's start with it. One of the 478 00:26:25.559 --> 00:26:27.160 things that I wanted to write the book is I 479 00:26:27.200 --> 00:26:30.440 just didn't like this idea of the great powers. Right, 480 00:26:30.880 --> 00:26:33.119 let's start with that as a concept. I didn't know 481 00:26:33.160 --> 00:26:35.920 what that meant, what it meant to be a great 482 00:26:36.039 --> 00:26:39.559 power versus not a great power. It seemed to me 483 00:26:39.920 --> 00:26:43.880 that actually calling someone a great power wasn't an actual judgment. 484 00:26:43.960 --> 00:26:47.160 It was a prophecy. We just believe you are really powerful, 485 00:26:47.160 --> 00:26:49.559 so we're going to call you a great power. And 486 00:26:49.599 --> 00:26:52.200 we believe someone else is not so powerful, so we're 487 00:26:52.240 --> 00:26:54.480 going to say you're not a great power. So as 488 00:26:54.519 --> 00:26:57.759 a prophecy, but it was a prophecy that was imbued 489 00:26:57.839 --> 00:27:01.920 with sort of advantage. You were considered as people Realists 490 00:27:01.960 --> 00:27:04.799 would say, oh, well, Russia's are great power, and great 491 00:27:04.880 --> 00:27:07.960 powers therefore get an interest in what goes on in 492 00:27:08.000 --> 00:27:10.640 their borders, whereas non great powers while they just sort 493 00:27:10.680 --> 00:27:13.000 of have to suck it up and see. So I 494 00:27:13.000 --> 00:27:17.279 didn't like that classification all powers, of course relative. There's 495 00:27:17.319 --> 00:27:22.240 no absolute power. It's a question of what relative strengths 496 00:27:22.720 --> 00:27:25.319 different people did. So you have to look at ones 497 00:27:25.359 --> 00:27:28.680 and say, look at power as something that's constructed from 498 00:27:28.680 --> 00:27:32.319 these different variables, and different states will have relative strengths 499 00:27:32.400 --> 00:27:36.240 relative weaknesses within those different variables, I mean, and they 500 00:27:36.279 --> 00:27:39.279 can change. One of the things that, of course is 501 00:27:39.359 --> 00:27:43.599 no longer necessarily true, or might not be necessarily true, 502 00:27:43.640 --> 00:27:46.960 is for you might have argued for many decades being 503 00:27:47.000 --> 00:27:52.880 a democracy provided certain relative advantages and power when it 504 00:27:52.920 --> 00:27:56.240 came to war. They were committed, they saw it through, 505 00:27:56.799 --> 00:28:01.000 they had societal cohesion in doing that. Though now I 506 00:28:01.000 --> 00:28:04.920 don't know if you'd say democracies are that united. Democracies 507 00:28:04.960 --> 00:28:08.799 seem to be very divided now, and that is one 508 00:28:08.839 --> 00:28:11.559 area where people might take advantage of them. So you 509 00:28:11.720 --> 00:28:15.920 just have to look at power as relative and different 510 00:28:16.000 --> 00:28:19.000 elements mattering at different times. So I said, I don't 511 00:28:19.079 --> 00:28:22.720 have a theory to explain all powers. What I can do, though, 512 00:28:22.759 --> 00:28:24.599 in the book, and I hope I do, is provide 513 00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:27.480 a framework to say, if you want to see how 514 00:28:27.559 --> 00:28:30.599 states would interact, take a look at these variables in 515 00:28:30.720 --> 00:28:37.079 terms of production, leadership, society, political structure, and allies and 516 00:28:37.160 --> 00:28:40.400 sort of judge those in relative balance with each other. 517 00:28:41.440 --> 00:28:44.039 And then you get a very different view of who 518 00:28:44.079 --> 00:28:46.480 is powerful and who is not powerful if you take 519 00:28:46.519 --> 00:28:49.559 that kind of framework and the relative way. So I 520 00:28:49.599 --> 00:28:52.559 don't want to have too long an answer here, but say, 521 00:28:52.119 --> 00:28:56.680 the alliance question is fascinating because the great power idea 522 00:28:57.319 --> 00:29:01.000 seems to stress individual powers. Well, you know, I don't 523 00:29:01.000 --> 00:29:02.839 think there is such a thing as a great power. 524 00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:07.640 There are great alliances. The wars have been won in 525 00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:10.119 the nineteenth and twentieth century and the twenty first century 526 00:29:10.119 --> 00:29:15.480 by alliances, not individual powers. And the stronger alliances and 527 00:29:15.519 --> 00:29:19.839 these are cold wars and hot wars. Individual powers, be 528 00:29:20.000 --> 00:29:24.440 they Napoleon, France, Hitler's Germany, powers that act very much 529 00:29:24.519 --> 00:29:27.640 as individualistic powers and treat their allies with sort of 530 00:29:27.640 --> 00:29:31.400 disdain and don't cooperate with their allies. What's interesting is 531 00:29:31.400 --> 00:29:36.680 how poorly they actually perform. And so if we start 532 00:29:36.920 --> 00:29:41.880 trashing alliances, you're really weakening yourself in a way that 533 00:29:41.920 --> 00:29:46.720 I think people don't fully understand alliances matter. Well. 534 00:29:46.720 --> 00:29:48.799 I completely agree with you on that. I mean, it's 535 00:29:48.839 --> 00:29:52.880 just hard to find an example from history where alliances 536 00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:58.559 didn't play, especially especially nineteenth century on Okay, i'll concede. 537 00:29:58.839 --> 00:30:02.160 You know that years ago, Okay, things may have been 538 00:30:02.440 --> 00:30:05.759 difficult and more difficult. The shifting sands of the Crusades 539 00:30:05.799 --> 00:30:09.279 I don't think are particularly apt contemporary example for us 540 00:30:09.319 --> 00:30:12.759 to look at today. But I completely agree with you 541 00:30:13.160 --> 00:30:18.279 that alliances are very important, and I wish the United 542 00:30:18.279 --> 00:30:20.480 States understood that a little bit more, but that's not 543 00:30:20.519 --> 00:30:22.559 the world that we live in right now. 544 00:30:23.079 --> 00:30:26.240 I just don't get why the US seems to be 545 00:30:27.279 --> 00:30:30.559 moving away from the alliances that constructed over eighty years 546 00:30:30.559 --> 00:30:34.960 and really supported US power. These alliances nat out of 547 00:30:35.000 --> 00:30:38.319 the alliances with the Pacific States have been huge elements 548 00:30:38.359 --> 00:30:42.000 of US power, but the United States just doesn't seem 549 00:30:42.039 --> 00:30:44.759 to value them presently in the way that they used to. 550 00:30:44.799 --> 00:30:46.759 I think this is something the US will regret. But 551 00:30:46.960 --> 00:30:48.920 as you say, that just seems to be the reality 552 00:30:48.960 --> 00:30:49.519 of where we are. 553 00:30:50.920 --> 00:30:53.839 Well, I agree too. You know, I think of sometimes 554 00:30:53.920 --> 00:30:57.640 sometimes I think of an alliance like an insurance policy. Yeah, 555 00:30:57.799 --> 00:31:00.880 you do have to pay for it every month, but 556 00:31:01.359 --> 00:31:04.319 you are happy when you have it. 557 00:31:04.440 --> 00:31:07.799 Well comes absolutely, I think it usually. I mean, what 558 00:31:07.839 --> 00:31:11.880 an alliance gives you is so much more than just 559 00:31:12.000 --> 00:31:16.359 the military forces of your ally. It tends to give 560 00:31:16.440 --> 00:31:23.279 you better supply lines, international political support, raw materials, so 561 00:31:23.400 --> 00:31:26.880 many things can come out of allies, and it gives 562 00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:32.160 you an ability for to have longevity that it's not. 563 00:31:32.319 --> 00:31:34.599 You know, the United States didn't win the Cold War. 564 00:31:35.160 --> 00:31:38.839 NATO won the Cold War. It could be said it 565 00:31:38.920 --> 00:31:42.359 wasn't the United States just acting on its own. But 566 00:31:42.480 --> 00:31:46.599 we don't tend to often give alliances their due. And 567 00:31:46.680 --> 00:31:49.279 if the United States ends up losing its alliances, it 568 00:31:49.319 --> 00:31:50.559 will I think regret the day. 569 00:31:52.599 --> 00:31:55.160 Well, I think we agree on that. But let's talk 570 00:31:55.160 --> 00:31:57.440 about one of the technological examples from the book. When 571 00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:00.359 you're talking about the evolution of technological power, I want 572 00:32:00.359 --> 00:32:03.519 to talk about dreadnoughts for a while. I find this 573 00:32:03.680 --> 00:32:08.079 always really really interesting because the British by pursuing this 574 00:32:08.319 --> 00:32:11.680 essentially undercut the advantage to some extent that they have. 575 00:32:12.480 --> 00:32:14.759 The moment that that first or not hits the water, 576 00:32:15.160 --> 00:32:18.400 it makes everything else obsolete. So can you extrapolate, First 577 00:32:18.400 --> 00:32:20.519 of all, it's everybody what it is I'm talking about, 578 00:32:20.559 --> 00:32:23.200 because some people aren't don't know. And then on top 579 00:32:23.279 --> 00:32:25.960 of it, like why is this such a great example 580 00:32:26.519 --> 00:32:31.279 of how technological strength really changes the battlefield instantaneously? 581 00:32:31.920 --> 00:32:35.200 Well, the dreadnont I mean in before the First World War, 582 00:32:35.599 --> 00:32:39.039 naval power, which by the way, was widely recognized as 583 00:32:39.640 --> 00:32:41.799 I don't want to say the dominant thing, but certainly 584 00:32:41.839 --> 00:32:44.119 one of you one of the few areas of that 585 00:32:44.160 --> 00:32:48.720 would strategically determine the next war, was seen primarily in 586 00:32:48.839 --> 00:32:53.240 terms of the largest warships have flowed, which are battleships. Now, 587 00:32:53.279 --> 00:32:56.079 Battleships are different from aircraft carriers which come along later. 588 00:32:56.200 --> 00:33:00.480 Battleships have guns themselves, and they engage by hiring with 589 00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:04.759 their guns against other battleships or other warships at the 590 00:33:04.839 --> 00:33:10.279 time within miles, so you know they were within visual contact. 591 00:33:10.400 --> 00:33:14.519 Is how a battleship operated. The British, who are the 592 00:33:14.559 --> 00:33:18.880 world's leading battleship nation in nineteen oh five decide to 593 00:33:19.039 --> 00:33:24.400 actually build the most radical warship that they can, which 594 00:33:24.440 --> 00:33:28.160 is called the Dreadnought HMS Dreadnought. And what Dreadnought is 595 00:33:27.759 --> 00:33:30.519 is that takes the concept of a battleship which had 596 00:33:30.559 --> 00:33:33.720 a bunch of different guns, say four big guns and 597 00:33:33.759 --> 00:33:37.519 eight small guns or ten small guns, and the British saying, 598 00:33:37.519 --> 00:33:39.279 now I forget all that, we just want big guns. 599 00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:44.319 It's all about the heavy broadsides, and they create HMS Dreadnought, 600 00:33:44.400 --> 00:33:48.200 which basically has a four Dreadnought, eight large guns on 601 00:33:48.240 --> 00:33:54.519 each side garage capability, and what they've done is created 602 00:33:54.559 --> 00:33:57.279 a whole new classic warships. Some would say that the 603 00:33:57.319 --> 00:34:00.799 power of the Dreadnought is so extreme that and it 604 00:34:00.839 --> 00:34:03.160 can fire so many more heavy shells than any other 605 00:34:03.200 --> 00:34:06.799 ship afloat that it basically makes earlier vessels seem a 606 00:34:06.799 --> 00:34:09.480 bit tinker toy, like how are they going to stand 607 00:34:09.519 --> 00:34:12.159 up to Dreadnoughts. And it sets the stage for the 608 00:34:12.159 --> 00:34:15.239 Anglo German naval race before the First World War. Because 609 00:34:15.239 --> 00:34:17.320 what the British have slightly done is by creating this 610 00:34:17.440 --> 00:34:22.480 new generation of warship has said Okay, in the coming years, 611 00:34:22.679 --> 00:34:25.440 everyone's going to measure their naval strength by dreadnoughts. But 612 00:34:25.440 --> 00:34:27.360 they're not going to care about ear leaderships. They're going 613 00:34:27.360 --> 00:34:30.239 to care just about these dreadnoughts. So it's what you 614 00:34:30.320 --> 00:34:33.559 make from this point onwards that will decide it. So 615 00:34:33.679 --> 00:34:36.480 what they had actually done is gotten rid of their 616 00:34:36.480 --> 00:34:40.119 old advantage and older warships and basically given themselves a 617 00:34:40.199 --> 00:34:42.679 year and a half construction start. So they traded that 618 00:34:42.760 --> 00:34:47.840 earlier advantage of mass in vessels for the ability to 619 00:34:47.880 --> 00:34:50.599 make the first Dreadnought. And what they find, of course, 620 00:34:50.639 --> 00:34:54.199 when the Dreadnought happens, is that it reveals you might say, 621 00:34:54.199 --> 00:34:57.119 it separates the men from the boys when it comes 622 00:34:57.199 --> 00:35:02.079 to industrial technological power, because the Dreadnought is the most 623 00:35:02.079 --> 00:35:06.039 complex warship, and you could argue it's the most complex 624 00:35:07.000 --> 00:35:13.039 thing in the world that naval ships. Naval warships were 625 00:35:13.199 --> 00:35:19.159 the most advanced constructions in the world before the First 626 00:35:19.199 --> 00:35:21.960 World War. They had the most high tech they cost 627 00:35:22.079 --> 00:35:25.199 the most. I mean, I give an example that they 628 00:35:25.199 --> 00:35:28.639 cost something like the dread The Dreadnought class battleships cost 629 00:35:28.679 --> 00:35:31.039 a hell of a lot more than the Titanic. You know 630 00:35:31.079 --> 00:35:35.079 that these big cruise liners often seen as the most beautiful, 631 00:35:35.199 --> 00:35:38.880 largest thing, they were nothing in price compared to an 632 00:35:38.960 --> 00:35:42.440 actual warship. They cost. These warships cost as much as skyscrapers. 633 00:35:42.519 --> 00:35:46.079 One dreadnought class battleship by the end of the First 634 00:35:46.119 --> 00:35:48.280 World War cost as much as the Woolworth Building, which 635 00:35:48.280 --> 00:35:49.960 would have been the largest building in the world at 636 00:35:50.000 --> 00:35:52.800 the time. And what happened, very few states can actually 637 00:35:52.840 --> 00:35:57.639 make them, so it becomes that real test and it 638 00:35:57.760 --> 00:36:01.480 transforms the whole world naval balance. Really only three states 639 00:36:01.480 --> 00:36:04.719 can make them in terms of making them in numbers 640 00:36:05.239 --> 00:36:09.000 and with the industrial ability, and they are not surprisingly 641 00:36:09.039 --> 00:36:11.880 the three largest industrial technological states in the world. They 642 00:36:11.920 --> 00:36:14.440 are the British, the Germans, and the Americans. They're the 643 00:36:14.519 --> 00:36:18.280 only ones that can really engage in a dreadnought naval race. 644 00:36:18.360 --> 00:36:20.840 Before the First World War, once the dread dot comes out, 645 00:36:21.239 --> 00:36:24.880 earlier naval powers that were holding on the French, the Russians, 646 00:36:25.480 --> 00:36:28.639 you might say, the Austro Hungarians, they just can't compete 647 00:36:28.639 --> 00:36:31.239 in it, so they make a very small number of dreadnoughts. 648 00:36:31.280 --> 00:36:35.280 They're sort of being left in the dust by the others. Now, 649 00:36:35.320 --> 00:36:39.960 the United States chooses not to build dreadnoughts the way 650 00:36:40.000 --> 00:36:43.000 it could. The United States could have competed in the 651 00:36:43.039 --> 00:36:46.880 dreadnoughts maybe teeth Theodore Roosevelt wanted to, but he doesn't. 652 00:36:47.239 --> 00:36:49.440 But the British and the Germans then engage in a 653 00:36:49.559 --> 00:36:53.360 naval race about building dreadnoughts, and it is the intense 654 00:36:53.519 --> 00:36:57.039 naval competition going into the First World War. The British 655 00:36:57.079 --> 00:36:59.480 know if they lose that race, they've really lost the 656 00:36:59.519 --> 00:37:02.639 First World War, or before it's fought, if the Germans 657 00:37:02.639 --> 00:37:07.039 gained dreadnought advantage the British, the British have no strategic 658 00:37:07.119 --> 00:37:09.840 future because the Germans can then cut them off from 659 00:37:09.840 --> 00:37:13.400 the sea lanes if they destroy British dreadnoughts, and Britain 660 00:37:13.440 --> 00:37:17.519 will starve. So it's fascinating to see just the intensity 661 00:37:18.159 --> 00:37:20.679 that goes into that. But it just shows also the cost, 662 00:37:20.719 --> 00:37:24.960 as I said, to engage in the upper echelon technological 663 00:37:25.000 --> 00:37:29.320 industrial competition before the First World War, only a very 664 00:37:29.360 --> 00:37:30.880 small number of states can do that. 665 00:37:32.280 --> 00:37:34.760 Yeah, and we could talk about how that idea persists today. 666 00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:36.760 And I think that that that truly is one of 667 00:37:36.800 --> 00:37:40.400 the most important takeaways, especially from the first chapter of 668 00:37:40.440 --> 00:37:43.360 this book, is to understand that when we talk about 669 00:37:43.679 --> 00:37:46.320 great power status, if we want to use that term, 670 00:37:46.440 --> 00:37:49.760 we're talking about who can really produce the elite technology 671 00:37:50.039 --> 00:37:53.800 in this case, because it's not everyone. As you point out, 672 00:37:53.920 --> 00:37:55.960 you know, this is not something that everyone is going 673 00:37:56.000 --> 00:37:58.440 to be able to do over and over again. And 674 00:37:58.480 --> 00:37:59.840 just get the exact quote. By the way, it's that 675 00:38:00.840 --> 00:38:03.639 you're right about how the construction of the cost of 676 00:38:03.639 --> 00:38:06.320 building the Queen Elizabeth the Dreadnaught is thirteen point five 677 00:38:06.440 --> 00:38:10.679 million dollars and that's equivalent to the sixty story Woolworth 678 00:38:10.760 --> 00:38:13.400 building which is on there. So it just kind of 679 00:38:13.400 --> 00:38:16.400 puts it in context for you that obviously not everyone's 680 00:38:16.440 --> 00:38:19.119 going to do it. I was kind of curious as 681 00:38:19.159 --> 00:38:22.079 I was reading this and listening to talk about what 682 00:38:22.239 --> 00:38:26.239 did the British know as they were constructing this first 683 00:38:26.320 --> 00:38:30.599 Dreadnaught that okay, this is going to change everything and 684 00:38:30.679 --> 00:38:33.400 that we are going to give up one advantage for 685 00:38:33.559 --> 00:38:37.360 another head start advantage or was that something that they 686 00:38:37.400 --> 00:38:39.920 only realized after the fact. 687 00:38:40.559 --> 00:38:42.519 Well, first of all, it was done so quickly by 688 00:38:42.519 --> 00:38:46.079 the British and done by one really driven by one 689 00:38:46.119 --> 00:38:49.559 Admiral Sir John Jackie Fisher that I'm not sure they 690 00:38:49.599 --> 00:38:52.440 fully understood what they were doing. I mean, I think 691 00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:55.719 he saw this as an opportunity to do something spectacular. 692 00:38:56.440 --> 00:38:59.000 I think they also thought that they were so ahead 693 00:38:59.039 --> 00:39:02.639 in shipbuilding that what this might do is simply cement 694 00:39:02.960 --> 00:39:07.480 their advantages. The real shock for the British comes a 695 00:39:07.480 --> 00:39:09.800 few years after the dreadnought when they actually look at 696 00:39:09.840 --> 00:39:12.320 what the Germans can make and they're like, oh my gosh, 697 00:39:13.320 --> 00:39:17.840 we hadn't realized just what German industrial capacity was when 698 00:39:17.880 --> 00:39:21.800 it came to shipbuilding, and that Germany was able to 699 00:39:21.920 --> 00:39:25.639 build more dreadnoughts more quickly than they expected. So I 700 00:39:25.639 --> 00:39:29.599 think what it did is it isolated the focus on Germany, 701 00:39:29.639 --> 00:39:32.159 and the Germans actually are shown to be, because of 702 00:39:32.199 --> 00:39:36.320 their industrial technological light, a different kind of threat than say, 703 00:39:36.360 --> 00:39:38.480 the French and Russians had been, and that, by the way, 704 00:39:38.519 --> 00:39:40.920 the French and Russians before nineteen oh five were the 705 00:39:40.920 --> 00:39:43.079 great threat for the British. The Germans weren't the big 706 00:39:43.199 --> 00:39:46.320 enemy before in nineteen oh five, the French and the 707 00:39:46.400 --> 00:39:49.480 Russians were the great naval enemy of the British. But 708 00:39:49.559 --> 00:39:51.719 the dreadnot. Sort of makes the French and the Russians 709 00:39:51.800 --> 00:39:54.440 not look that threatening because they can't keep up, but 710 00:39:54.480 --> 00:39:57.320 it makes the Germans look uber threatening because the Germans 711 00:39:57.360 --> 00:39:59.880 can keep up. In fact, in some areas where the 712 00:40:00.000 --> 00:40:04.639 Germans are really excelling, which is high quality engineering in 713 00:40:04.639 --> 00:40:09.119 industrial machinery, the Germans could out the British were worried 714 00:40:09.119 --> 00:40:11.280 the Germans could outbuild them. I mean, I don't want 715 00:40:11.280 --> 00:40:13.280 to know how technical we want to get, but it's 716 00:40:13.320 --> 00:40:18.000 about actually the gun mountings that the turrets on these 717 00:40:18.000 --> 00:40:22.719 battleships were extraordinarily common. The most highest and the highest 718 00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:26.199 and the pinnacle of engineering before the First World War 719 00:40:26.320 --> 00:40:29.800 was probably a battleship turret because you had to turn 720 00:40:30.079 --> 00:40:35.880 something that weighed tons and tons and tons precisely quickly 721 00:40:36.639 --> 00:40:39.400 raise guns up and down. It had to have so 722 00:40:39.519 --> 00:40:44.400 many working parts, so building the turret itself was the 723 00:40:44.440 --> 00:40:47.280 most complex part of the warship. But the Germans could 724 00:40:47.280 --> 00:40:49.519 actually make turrets, maybe even a little more fast, a 725 00:40:49.559 --> 00:40:51.960 little more quickly than the British. So that's a real 726 00:40:52.039 --> 00:40:55.000 stunning thing for them to understand. So they didn't know 727 00:40:55.039 --> 00:40:57.920 what they were doing, but they quickly fed out. By 728 00:40:58.079 --> 00:40:59.760 nineteen o eight nine what they had done. 729 00:41:01.360 --> 00:41:04.039 Well, let's talk about aircraft carriers then, because I think 730 00:41:04.239 --> 00:41:08.679 most most military thinkers that I talk to now aday 731 00:41:08.840 --> 00:41:12.159 now will tell me, all right, the most the most 732 00:41:12.159 --> 00:41:15.480 technologically advanced piece of equipment in the world today from 733 00:41:15.519 --> 00:41:18.400 the military standpoint is the aircraft carrier. It's it is 734 00:41:18.480 --> 00:41:22.840 still the gold standard. And my question, you write in 735 00:41:22.880 --> 00:41:26.519 the book this US carrier dominance remains today. The United 736 00:41:26.519 --> 00:41:30.079 States is dominant in aircraft carriers, like, but I wonder, 737 00:41:31.039 --> 00:41:34.679 like is that a relative term? Are we still dominant 738 00:41:34.719 --> 00:41:38.079 in all cases? Or is it? Should we consider it 739 00:41:38.360 --> 00:41:40.960 visa v the sphere of conflict. So let's take Taiwan 740 00:41:41.000 --> 00:41:43.760 for example. Taiwan's a lot closer to China than it 741 00:41:43.800 --> 00:41:46.559 is to us, right, so that's going to give them 742 00:41:46.599 --> 00:41:49.760 an advantage in that extent. And also, you know, when 743 00:41:49.800 --> 00:41:53.159 I think about carriers, are they still dominant? 744 00:41:53.599 --> 00:41:55.880 Is the question I asked today. The thing about the 745 00:41:55.920 --> 00:41:58.719 dreadnoughts is they couldn't be sunk by anything but dreadnoughts. 746 00:41:59.599 --> 00:42:01.800 You're right, the submarines at the time hadn't reached the 747 00:42:01.800 --> 00:42:05.119 ability to really sink them. So you could look at 748 00:42:05.199 --> 00:42:08.480 dreadnought to Dreadnot competition and say, that's the problem that 749 00:42:08.599 --> 00:42:10.880 we would have with aircraft and air carriers now is 750 00:42:11.119 --> 00:42:16.280 large worships are vulnerable to much cheaper systems. So personally 751 00:42:16.320 --> 00:42:18.719 I am a real skeptic on the long term value 752 00:42:18.760 --> 00:42:20.599 of the aircraft carrier. I mean I wrote an article 753 00:42:20.639 --> 00:42:23.119 on the Atlantic which got a lot of stick not 754 00:42:23.239 --> 00:42:26.280 long after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty 755 00:42:26.360 --> 00:42:31.559 two saying things like tanks and large warships are heading 756 00:42:31.559 --> 00:42:35.519 towards obsolescence because they can be destroyed by much cheaper systems. 757 00:42:35.840 --> 00:42:38.519 So it's a balance of what can or can't destroy it. 758 00:42:39.159 --> 00:42:41.119 So that's why it's different than the Dreadnot, because the 759 00:42:41.159 --> 00:42:43.679 Dreadnot at that point couldn't be destroyed by anything cheaply. 760 00:42:44.239 --> 00:42:46.840 The problem that say, the US aircraft carriers would have 761 00:42:46.880 --> 00:42:50.320 fighting the Chinese is the Chinese can pump out anti 762 00:42:50.320 --> 00:42:55.519 ship missiles which are much I mean a fraction of 763 00:42:55.559 --> 00:42:57.719 the cost of aircraft carriers. You could have hundreds and 764 00:42:57.800 --> 00:43:01.719 hundreds of anti ship missiles not that expensive to build 765 00:43:01.719 --> 00:43:05.480 in relative terms, and the Chinese have anti ship missiles 766 00:43:05.480 --> 00:43:08.239 that can you know, they say now reach Guam. So 767 00:43:08.360 --> 00:43:12.920 where actually would the US aircraft carriers be survivable in 768 00:43:12.960 --> 00:43:16.199 that modern battle area unless you believe you can shoot 769 00:43:16.199 --> 00:43:19.559 them all down, you know, provide perfect air defense to 770 00:43:19.599 --> 00:43:23.239 your carrier battle groups. Then actually that carrier battle group 771 00:43:23.320 --> 00:43:27.280 turns from being an asset to a target. And I 772 00:43:27.320 --> 00:43:29.519 would have to say the carrier to me, You'd have 773 00:43:29.559 --> 00:43:34.920 to convince me that a carrier is survivable in the 774 00:43:34.960 --> 00:43:39.800 modern battle area to have that advantage. I am not convinced, say, 775 00:43:39.840 --> 00:43:44.639 in fighting China, that it is survivable personally, you know, 776 00:43:44.679 --> 00:43:47.159 I think we've we've partly seen it being used against 777 00:43:47.199 --> 00:43:50.000 people who couldn't fire back for the past forty years. 778 00:43:50.039 --> 00:43:52.199 So it's been used in the Middle East, it's been here, 779 00:43:52.239 --> 00:43:54.480 that's been used in the War on Terror. Well, that's 780 00:43:54.480 --> 00:43:57.360 against states that can't or or sort of organizations that 781 00:43:57.400 --> 00:44:00.519 can't damage the carrier, so that it seems useful. I 782 00:44:00.559 --> 00:44:04.559 would be very wary to make the judgment that the 783 00:44:04.599 --> 00:44:08.079 carrier still will be an effective engine of war in 784 00:44:08.159 --> 00:44:08.760 the next war. 785 00:44:10.119 --> 00:44:11.679 I'm not going to argue with you, by the way, 786 00:44:11.719 --> 00:44:16.079 because I agree with you. I agree with you very 787 00:44:16.199 --> 00:44:19.599 very much. I mean, if you're concerned at all in 788 00:44:19.599 --> 00:44:23.360 the US military that maybe the hooties can shoot something down, 789 00:44:23.400 --> 00:44:26.880 You're definitely gonna have those concerned about the Chinese. So 790 00:44:27.480 --> 00:44:28.519 we're on the same page. 791 00:44:28.639 --> 00:44:32.320 Ask you know, it's a good question, ask the if 792 00:44:32.320 --> 00:44:36.119 you have a US carrier battle Boombourg British British carriers say, Okay, 793 00:44:36.119 --> 00:44:40.280 how many incoming missiles can you shoot down? Can the 794 00:44:40.480 --> 00:44:42.880 other side fire more than that? If the other side 795 00:44:42.880 --> 00:44:45.320 can fire more than you can absolutely shoot down, Well, 796 00:44:45.360 --> 00:44:47.440 those carriers are probably going to be sunk or you know, 797 00:44:47.519 --> 00:44:50.079 a lot of them, and the Chinese can certainly fire 798 00:44:50.079 --> 00:44:53.480 a heck of a lot of missauce. So I just 799 00:44:53.519 --> 00:44:56.039 think it's it's something that we just have to you know. 800 00:44:56.079 --> 00:44:58.639 But it's militaries love to keep what they have, and 801 00:44:58.719 --> 00:45:00.760 they don't love to give up big. They love to 802 00:45:00.840 --> 00:45:05.199 keep big, big, powerful ships, and so there'll be a 803 00:45:05.320 --> 00:45:09.039 real lobbying to try and keep these ships for as 804 00:45:09.039 --> 00:45:09.880 long as possible. 805 00:45:10.679 --> 00:45:12.559 Yeah, but that's very very true. I mean, the old 806 00:45:12.599 --> 00:45:14.719 ada is that the generals are always fighting the last War. 807 00:45:15.320 --> 00:45:17.239 I don't know how well it holds up, but I 808 00:45:17.280 --> 00:45:19.159 think of it from time to time. But we've talked 809 00:45:19.199 --> 00:45:22.360 so much about the tech chapter. I do want to 810 00:45:22.360 --> 00:45:24.239 move on and ask one last question I want to 811 00:45:24.239 --> 00:45:26.679 ask it about the leadership chapter. If you would give 812 00:45:26.719 --> 00:45:30.400 me one prime example from the book as to this 813 00:45:30.480 --> 00:45:33.880 is why leadership is critical when it comes to war 814 00:45:33.960 --> 00:45:35.719 and power, I think it would go a long way 815 00:45:35.800 --> 00:45:40.599 to explaining to the audience the value of this really 816 00:45:40.719 --> 00:45:41.880 crucial aspect. 817 00:45:42.239 --> 00:45:45.639 Well, Bick, I mean, every conversation eventually gets to Hitler. 818 00:45:47.400 --> 00:45:48.960 The Germans didn't have to go to war in nineteen 819 00:45:49.000 --> 00:45:51.559 thirty nine. Adolf Hitler wanted to go to war in 820 00:45:51.639 --> 00:45:55.159 nineteen thirty nine. States do not behave the same This 821 00:45:55.199 --> 00:45:58.000 is the thing that drives me crazy say about realism 822 00:45:58.079 --> 00:46:01.480 and offense of realism is so many theories of state 823 00:46:01.519 --> 00:46:04.159 behavior that states sort of are the same. You know 824 00:46:04.199 --> 00:46:06.519 that all states are trying to maximize their power in 825 00:46:06.559 --> 00:46:09.199 an unstable world, so all states are trying to expand, 826 00:46:09.559 --> 00:46:12.159 where all states are trying to make themselves more powerful, 827 00:46:13.039 --> 00:46:17.039 but actually states pay very differently. Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine 828 00:46:17.079 --> 00:46:20.559 in twenty twenty two. There was no Russian consensus to 829 00:46:20.639 --> 00:46:24.199 invade Ukraine. In fact, a lot of Putin's advisors clearly 830 00:46:24.239 --> 00:46:27.760 didn't want to do it. There's that very famous TV 831 00:46:27.880 --> 00:46:31.920 scene where he publicly humiliates his advisors who were skeptical 832 00:46:31.960 --> 00:46:35.199 about the invasion, some very nervous about it. But he 833 00:46:35.280 --> 00:46:38.199 wants to do it, so he for the forces it. 834 00:46:38.920 --> 00:46:41.920 He forces the issue to be done, so that the 835 00:46:42.000 --> 00:46:44.719 idea that somehow leaders don't matter. It matters in the 836 00:46:44.760 --> 00:46:47.760 United States, whether for Ukraine, whether Joe Biden is president 837 00:46:47.840 --> 00:46:51.559 or Donald Trump in these matter. And so we have 838 00:46:51.679 --> 00:46:55.840 to get a bit away from our theories which assume 839 00:46:56.000 --> 00:46:59.880 states are quite similar to say, actually, individual personalities matter. 840 00:47:00.039 --> 00:47:02.400 A lot of people don't like that because they don't 841 00:47:02.440 --> 00:47:04.079 like they call it, oh, with a great man idea 842 00:47:04.079 --> 00:47:06.480 of history. Well, by the way, it's not great. These 843 00:47:06.519 --> 00:47:09.679 guys are not great, and I think that's important. But 844 00:47:09.760 --> 00:47:13.079 if you don't look at the leadership of a country, 845 00:47:13.199 --> 00:47:16.280 you will miss out one of the fundamental areas. But 846 00:47:16.280 --> 00:47:17.960 I say, when it will go to war, how it 847 00:47:18.000 --> 00:47:22.760 will fight the war, and what is driving it strategically? 848 00:47:23.119 --> 00:47:25.440 These are people making decisions. 849 00:47:27.000 --> 00:47:31.239 Yeah, I echo that thought process back. I understand the 850 00:47:31.280 --> 00:47:33.679 desire to get away from the quote unquote great man 851 00:47:33.719 --> 00:47:37.039 theory of history. I get it to a large extent. 852 00:47:37.280 --> 00:47:41.119 But you can't ignore the power that someone like of 853 00:47:41.159 --> 00:47:46.559 Vladimir Putin or ajijingpaning exercises over their political system, and 854 00:47:46.679 --> 00:47:51.360 to ignore that, I think is absurd. Quite frankly, I'm 855 00:47:51.360 --> 00:47:53.199 not trying to be mean about it, but I do 856 00:47:53.239 --> 00:47:54.480 think it's that ridiculous. 857 00:47:54.559 --> 00:47:56.320 I mean, you would think any I mean a new 858 00:47:56.920 --> 00:47:59.119 any Russian leader would probably want to get out of 859 00:47:59.119 --> 00:48:03.679 this ridiculous more. But Putin can't. Here it's Putin who's 860 00:48:03.719 --> 00:48:07.280 invested this war in his own leadership, So you know 861 00:48:07.320 --> 00:48:11.400 this war is not in Russian interest, It's in Putin's interest, 862 00:48:11.559 --> 00:48:13.639 and so I think you have to understand his personal 863 00:48:13.760 --> 00:48:14.400 role in US. 864 00:48:15.360 --> 00:48:17.119 Yeah, I think that's very true. And I talk about 865 00:48:17.159 --> 00:48:19.280 the war. I always talk about, well, you have to 866 00:48:19.320 --> 00:48:20.880 talk When you tell me who is this good for? 867 00:48:20.960 --> 00:48:22.840 I say, well, is this good or bad? I say, well, 868 00:48:22.840 --> 00:48:26.280 good for who? Because that's a huge difference whether the 869 00:48:26.400 --> 00:48:30.480 continuing conflict in Gaza is good for Israel or good 870 00:48:30.480 --> 00:48:33.679 for bb Net and Yahoo, I think are two different questions. 871 00:48:33.599 --> 00:48:35.679 Or even whether there is national interest. That's one of 872 00:48:35.719 --> 00:48:39.440 the things if we use this phrase national interest and said, well, 873 00:48:39.440 --> 00:48:41.719 what the heck is that? I don't see a nation's 874 00:48:41.800 --> 00:48:45.639 interest in many of these decisions. I see individual leaders interests. 875 00:48:45.960 --> 00:48:48.800 I see in many ways nations doing incredibly stupid things 876 00:48:48.800 --> 00:48:52.440 that I would say are against their interests. So we 877 00:48:52.920 --> 00:48:55.840 use the phrase national interest as if that is clear, 878 00:48:56.320 --> 00:48:58.239 but in many cases I would argue it's not, it's 879 00:48:58.400 --> 00:48:59.360 leadership interest. 880 00:49:01.000 --> 00:49:02.800 I think it's a great point, and I also think, 881 00:49:02.880 --> 00:49:04.760 because we're out of time, I think it's a great book. 882 00:49:05.480 --> 00:49:07.920 I hope that everybody picks up a copy of it. 883 00:49:08.079 --> 00:49:10.920 I really enjoyed it. I loved at the setup of it. 884 00:49:10.960 --> 00:49:13.239 I loved every chapter. I thought it was very easy 885 00:49:13.280 --> 00:49:17.159 to digest and understand whether this is your first foray 886 00:49:17.320 --> 00:49:20.000 into foreign policy, war and so on and so forth, 887 00:49:20.239 --> 00:49:22.559 or you're an old hand at the till you know, 888 00:49:22.639 --> 00:49:25.920 either way you're going to enjoy it. And so thank 889 00:49:25.960 --> 00:49:28.119 you so much for coming on. It was a great conversation. 890 00:49:28.599 --> 00:49:29.679 Thanks so much for having me.